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Tag "Ghassan Kadi"

Who is doing what in Syria and why

by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog It seems that every time a chapter in the war on Syria comes to an end, a new factor surfaces. Just like the 1975-1989 civil war in Lebanon before it, and which started off with a clash between the PLO and the Lebanese rightwing Phalangist militia and then ended up with an Israeli invasion and its aftermath, the war on Syria is now

Russia’s new preemptive move in Lebanon

by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog Russia has put herself, for better or for worse, in a position that requires a huge role in the Levant; perhaps much bigger than what Russia bargained for on the eve of the Russian “intervention” in Syria on the 28th of September 2015. The initial Russian-led attack on ISIS in Syria was highly successful until a glitch was added to the picture when

Erdogan has made his choice

by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog It seems that Erdogan has already made up his mind, but the speculations about what deals have been and haven’t been done seem muddied, to put it mildly. In the Levant, the Kurds always lose in the end, and regardless of what alliances they make and with whom, they always end up getting stabbed in the back; or at least abandoned. But when

Erdogan’s Karmic Trap

by Ghassan Kadi for the Saker blog The security zone America intends to establish in Syria is doomed to fail sooner or later. How can this assertion be made and what can it be based on? Well, two main things really; history and facts on the ground. America’s seven-decade long post WWII intensive and consecutive military gambles have all failed, and without a single exception. And even though America has

The death of Kissinger’s Shuttle Diplomacy: the Jerusalem factor

by Ghassan Kadi for the Saker Blog No man has possibly served the American Empire as much as Henry Kissinger did, and with all the literature, including screenplays, that have been written about him and his “shuttle diplomacy”, none probably described his biggest ever performance than Patrick Seale in his book “Asad”. After all, even though Kissinger is always remembered as the diplomat who has negotiated terms of settlement with

The MBS – Blackwater marriage of convenience

by Ghassan Kadi for the Saker blog Mohamed Bin Salman’s (MBS) royal Saudi coup is still in the making and its stories of mystery and intrigue are unfolding. Some recent articles written about this unprecedented Saudi development have focused on whether or not MBS was actually desirous of instigating reform within the kingdom of sand and capable of putting together the infrastructure that made such reform possible and how. Other

The Second Saudi Dynasty: MBS’s reset button

by Ghassan Kadi for the Saker blog Ironically, the first three words of my first article regarding the “War on Syria” were 1) Bandar, 2) Bin, 3) Sultan. http://intibahwakeup.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/the-anti-syrian-cocktail-by-ghassan-kadi.html Back in June 2011 when that article was written, Bandar Bin Sultan was clearly the head of the serpent and the architect of all attacks that were plotted and conjured up to destabilize Syria and turn her from the pivotal state

The enigmatic Mohamed Bin Salman

by Ghassan Kadi Love him or hate him, Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS) is like no other prince that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has seen since its inception under the rule of his founding grandfather King Abdul Aziz in 1932 and the establishment of the Al-Saud dynasty that changed Arabia; including its name. Some argue that even the worst of humans can do a bit of good.

The Fall and the Fall of Hariri

by Ghassan Kadi The sudden resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri raises a number of questions. To fast track the main relevant events of the last decade or so, Hariri was Saudi Arabia’s favourite kid on the Lebanese block. After all, his father was a close friend and a business partner of Prince Fahed, who later on became King Fahed. And because he harbours similar anti-Shiite passions like his

Mohamed Bin Salman’s Do or Don’t Dilemma

by Ghassan Kadi Much has been said about the Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman (aka MBS), and most of it, has been in the form of criticism from different analysts and individuals including some members of the Saudi royal family itself. The relatively few voices of support come only from sources close and loyal to him. The famous Saudi blogger who calls himself “Moujtahid” has been taunting the Saudi

Bin Laden Remembered: the Rise of the Jihadi Spring

by Ghassan Kadi Political analysis is often based on speculations in an attempt to explain the news; past, present and future. Future analyses are not meant to be predictive per se, but sometimes indicative of a worst case scenario, certain plausible and even far-fetched agendas. Likewise, digging into the past does not provide answers, but it rather enables us to look at the past with different binoculars. The “killing” of Bin

The Muslim Spring, take II

by Ghassan and Intibah Kadi In a previous article titled “A Muslim Spring” published on the Saker, on the 12th of June 2017, the analysis of the then recent Qatar standoff took us into the direction of whether new Middle Eastern alliances were taking form and old ones dismantling. Developments since then reveal that the distinctive parts of the new embryos are already differentiating and emerging. The initial article foresaw

Syria’s once avoidable new battle

by Ghassan Kadi In an article published on the Saker titled “Kurdish Autonomy; Partition or Masterplan”, and as the unsavoury prospect of establishing an independent Kurdish state in Syria was taking form, I emphasised that this scenario is avoidable, and at worst, if it had to happen, and if all cards were played correctly, then a seemingly impending disaster could be turned around and that any potential harm could be

A Muslim spring

by Ghassan Kadi As the world citizens watch with horror the escalation between the USA and Russia on one hand and with China on the other hand, and as they fear the worst; a nuclear holocaust, citizens of the Muslim World watch the escalation between Saudi Arabia and Iran and fear the “regional worst”, and that is an all-out Sunni Shiite strife. It must be remembered that even though Muslim

Qatar and the forty thieves

by Ghassan Kadi The sudden, unprovoked and coordinated outrage of Middle East regional powers, as well as international powers, against Qatar is something akin to a story in “Fables de La Fontaine”. With a bit of a twist, it resembles the story of “The Animals Seized with the Plague”. For the benefit of those who are unfamiliar with this fable, the animals convened to find out why they were struck

The Six-Day war half a century on: winners and losers

by Ghassan Kadi Like all Arabs of my age group, we all remember this war like it was yesterday. We remember how we huddled glued to our radios listening to military news reports and watching military parades and war songs on black and white TV screens, believing that the Arab armies of Egypt, Syria and Jordan were on a winning streak, not knowing that the war was really over before

Al-Saud’s Only Gamble Option

by Ghassan Kadi A lot has been said and speculated on about the “real” objectives of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia. Seasoned veteran British journalist/analyst and Middle East expert Robert Fisk sees it as an attempt to create a Sunni-style NATO to curb the Iranian expansion, and his speculation is on the money, but in realistic terms, what can this visit and its “aftermath” achieve? Despite the slump on crude

Making America great… again?

by Ghassan Kadi The more pre-election, post-election and even post-inauguration promises that President Trump breaks, the harder he makes it for himself to “Make America Great again”. But this narrative herein is not based on the political rhetoric and broken promises, rather, it is about a hypothetical scenario that questions if America is realistically able to bring Trump’s slogan to fruition. “Make America Great Again” is a catch phrase that

French Revolution, Take II: “Après Soi, Le Déluge”

by Ghassan Kadi The weak and selfish French monarch Louis the XV is perhaps best known for his famous/infamous quote; “Après moi, le déluge” (after me, the flood). The weak and selfish monarch was at least wise enough to realize that during the time of his reign, the people of France had had enough of the ruthless yoke of absolute monarchy that his predecessor, Louis the XIV, epitomized in the

The Double-Triple-Quadruple-Crossing Trump:

by Ghassan Kadi Trumps recent and sudden 180 degree turn on a number of international issues is mind-boggling, to say the least. But, if we connect the dots it becomes easier to get into the mind of the pragmatic billionaire-turned-President. First and foremost, we must thank Obama for the “if” state of mind he gave us about Trump. Many analysts, including myself, felt hopeful when Clinton was defeated and Trump

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