Tag "Russian options in the Ukraine"

Does the shelling of the Russian border posts really matter?

For days now the Ukie forces have been regularly shelling Russian border posts “by mistake”.  So far, I think that only one officer was wounded, but that nobody has been killed.  Russian ammo-disposal control specialists have been sent to get rid of the unexploded ordinance, and some border crossings had to be closed, typically for a couple of hours.Does that matter and should anybody care?Absolutely.  Just like the fall of

The Fall of Slaviansk, its meaning and implications

Military analysis: So today Slaviansk has finally fallen to the Nazis.  Those of us with a military background all understood that this was pretty much inevitable and, obviously, so did the leaders of the Novorussian resistance.  The fact that it took so long for the entire Ukie army to take that small town really says a lot about the amazing courage of its defenders and/or about the no less amazing

For the record: Strelkov, Iazov and my position concerning a Russian intervention in Novorussia

Today, as soon as I published the appeal by Strelkov I got comments apparently telling me (“sorry Saker”) that Strelkov was not very credible.  Now that I have also posted a report about Iazov’s views, I suppose that others will accuse me of “waiting too long” or for, as always, “worshiping Putin”.  So, again – I have done so many times already – I will try to explain my personal

Keeping things in perspective – it’s not only Putin

It is natural to try to personify the current stance of Russia by saying that “Putin did this” or “Putin did that” but the danger of this Putin-centric view is that if overlooks a far more complex reality.  In particular,1) This approach implies that Putin is all-powerful and does not have to take other people or powers into account.2) It overlooks the role of Russian public opinion.Contrary to the western

A unofficial Russian no-fly zone over Novorussia?

My friend “J” just sent me this most interesting video where a Novorussian solider describes how some unidentified aircraft apparently engage Ukie fighters and bombers and, in one instance, box them in and force them to land.  This is the first and only time I have ever heard of such a thing taking place, and I obviously cannot vouch for the accuracy of this soldier’s interpretation for what he saw. 

The neo-Nazi junta in Kiev dramatically increases its efforts to provoke Russian into an intervention

By now you have all already probably heard it.  The CEO of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, has announced that Russia was now implementing a “prepayment only” gas delivery plan for the Ukraine and Lavrov has announced that he has “nothing to talk about” with the Ukie clown currently impersonating a Foreign Minister, Andrii Deshchytsia, and that he “would not meet with him”.  Unlike the always calm and impeccably diplomatic Lavrov, Miller

A scorecard for the US “lukewarm war” on Russia – strategic and tactical levels

First, I have to explain the title: “A scorecard for US war on Russia”: what we are witnessing today is beyond any doubt a US war on Russia, except that it that is is neither quite “cold” nor “hot”: it’s tepid, lukewarm.  Not for the people dying of course, but by it’s choice of methods.  It is not a Cold War because people are dying, because tanks, artillery and airpower

Considering the “what ifs” and “then whats” of a direct Russian intervention in the Donbass

It has been my recurrent effort on this blog to try to explain the likely reasons why Russia has not intervened so far in the war between Banderastan and Novorosiia.  I notice that those who see signs of “betrayal” or “sellout” by Putin are long on accusations but very short on specifics.  Unlike the excellent article which I recently posted as a “must read”, the folks who are busy accusing

Making sense of Obama’s billion dollar hammer

You probably heard it by now: Obama has pledged a billion dollars to what my “beloved” BBC called “European security”. The official name for this initiative is the “European Reassurance Initiative”.  You see, Obama and the BBC apparently believe that Europeans are really terrified and that they believe that the Russian tanks might roll into Warsaw, Athens, Rome or Lisbon at any time.  The good news is that Uncle Sam

Translation of the “must read” article of worldcrisis.ru explaining why there is no Russian intervention in the Ukraine

It is with an immense and heartfelt THANK YOU! to “BM” for his translation that I have the real privilege to share with you this translation into English of the excellent article of worldcrisis.ru I mentioned in my previous post.  This is, in my opinion, the most complete and well-written analysis of the apparent Russian “passivity” and we all owe “BM” a big debt of gratitude for making it available

Two very good articles, one in Russian and one in French

Dear friends,While I work on the next SITREP I wanted to share with you two very good articles, one in Russian and one in French.The first article, sent to me by ‘D’ and entitled “Почему нет военной интервенции РФ на Украину” (Why there is no intervention of the Russian Federation in the Ukraine) provides a detailed and extremely well-written explanation of why Russia is not intervening in the Ukraine.  Until

Why does Russia not leak the names of the war criminals?

While Nazi death squads are roaming around the Donbass and murdering civilians and “their own” soldiers the Kremlin’s response seems to be limited to two aspects: denouncing the atrocities on the ground and providing truthful information to the Ukrainian population (via the Russian media) and the world (via RT).  This is good, but not enough.I am pretty confident that the GRU knows all the Ukrainian unit commanders down to the

The Ukraine in Turmoil by Israel Shamir

I want to express my gratitude to Israel Shamir who kindly sent me this excellent analysis for publication on my blog.  I hope that in the future he will allow me to publish more of his articles.The Saker——-The Ukraine in Turmoil by Israel Shamir It is not much fun to be in Kiev these days. The revolutionary excitement is over, and hopes for new faces, the end of corruption and

A look in the long distance: who will have to pay for “Ukraine v2”?

I just wanted to mention here a topic which is not often discussed in the western press but which does pop-up with some regularity in the Russian press.  Let’s set aside the current events and ask ourselves the following question:Sooner or later there will be some kind of state in what used to be the Ukraine until 2014.  The Crimea is gone forever to Russia, that is certain.  A “People’s

Putin offers Obama a gambit the latter cannot refuse

I have to admit that today’s move by Putin caught me completely off-guard.  My first impression was that by asking the folks in the Donbass to postpone the referendum, Putin was basically tossing aside a valuable bargaining chip.  Even more disturbing was his apparent backing for the upcoming May 25th presidential election.Let me also say, however, that the notion of Putin “caving in” never even crossed my mind if only

The US plan for the Ukraine – a hypothesis

Listening to Lavrov today I came to the conclusion that the regime in Kiev was indeed about to try to attack the eastern Ukraine.  It’s not only Lavrov, the Russian Internet is on “red alert” and chock-full of rumors and speculation about an imminent attack.  This begs a number of questions:1) Why would the junta in Kiev so overtly renege on the Geneva agreement?2) Why would it attack when the

Making sense of the latest Kerry Lavrov deal

Ok, first the necessary caveats:1) Kerry and Lavrov already had a deal on Syria, also made in Geneva, but then the USA reneged.2) The EU also had a deal on the Ukraine with Yanukovich, who was overthrown literally the next day.3) The USA, NATO and the EU have lied, cheated, mis-represented, twisted and simply betrayed pretty much every promise which they made to Russia ever since Russia freed itself from