While there are not official confirmations (that I know of) from the Russian military, it appears that Lavrov is the first, and so far only, Russian official who declared that the 2nd phase of the operation has begun. Truth be told, pretty much everybody else thinks likewise. Considering the intensity of Russian bombings and artillery strikes overnight, which were reported by numerous sources, it certainly appears reasonable to me to conclude that this 2nd phase has indeed begun. For example, the Russian defense ministry reported on Tuesday morning that its troops had delivered artillery strikes at 1,260 Ukrainian military targets overnight, including 1,214 locations where Ukrainian troops amassed their forces.
How long this phase of the war will last is anybody’s guess. Optimists think a week, pessimists a month, but in reality nobody really knows because the outcome will be determined not by maneuver like during the first phase, but by logistics, specifically fuel and ammunition, in other words by mobility and firepower.
I remind you that the Ukronazi forces in the eastern Ukraine have been in a de facto “cauldron” (as I explained, you can be physically surrounded or you can be “blocked by fire”) since over one month, and that the Ukrainians were not able to meaningfully resupply them while the Russian side has quasi limitless fuel and ammo (in spite of the Pentagon’s hallucinations). Russia also has air supremacy and very heavy weapons, neither of which the Ukrainians have.
In other words, while the Nazi forces in the eastern Ukraine get slaughtered, the US administration in Kiev will have to change the narrative about “the glorious Ukrainian military is winning” to “Russians are killing babies” (without ever wondering WHY and HOW civilians and even kids ended up inside the Avtostal complex, assuming the recent photos of kids hiding there are real and not made in Kiev).
Nobody really knows how many Ukrainians are still in the Donbass cauldron, and neither do we know how their morale and determination to stand and fight to the end is. For all these reasons giving even an approximate timeframe for this battle is impossible, at least for me.
This week is Passion Week for Orthodox Christians and I will be leaving tomorrow to attend the church services in our parish, about a 4 hour drive one way, so I will stay there until very late Sunday evening. In other words, my presence at the blog for the next 6 days will be minimal, I will travel with a laptop, but I will mostly be busy with the preparations for, and the celebration of, Holy Paskha.
So I leave you in the tender care of my colleagues Amarynth and Herb who will continue to post guest posts and keep you informed.
For daily reports, I suggest you follow the (excellent) situation reports written by Nightvision. Just please keep in mind that due to the nature of this second phase, there will be less maps of troop movements and that moving one or two kilometers against the very heavily and deep defenses of the Ukrainians might mean much more than moving 10 or 20 kilometers on open terrain.
By the way, the Empire of Hate and Lies knows the true score, and they are massively freaking out.
They are now even declaring war on old Russian musical instruments. As for “Ze” – he has now become a UN National Hero:
Will these infantiles ever grow up?
I doubt it, if anything, their antics “by infantiles – for infantiles” combined with the most massive exercise in world history to “cancel” any “wrong” information, show both how desperate and helpless these folks are.
As for the Nazis occupiers, they just passed a law allowing foreigners to work for the Ukrainian “intelligence” services. What a surprise, at least for those who had not realized that the USA has been running the SBU, and everything else, in Nazi occupied Ukraine since the Euromaidan (and even before).
In conclusion, I just want to end with a reminder. This is not a war between Russia and the Ukraine. This is a war between Russia and the united West, the latest one is a series going back at least a thousand years. Russia has been singled out for “cancellation” and we don’t want to be canceled.
While for eight years Russia did all she could NOT to get involved, the Empire of Hate and Lies did successfully force her into an open military intervention in the Ukraine, and now that Empire will do all it can to prolong that war and have it result in the maximal loss of human life and the total destruction of the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, exactly the OPPOSITE of what the Kremlin wants: to disarm and denazify the Ukraine with the minimum of human loss of life and with as much of the civilian infrastructure preserved as possible. These goals are as asymmetrical as can be, and it is much MUCH easier to destroy than to preserve. Please keep that in mind when the next propaganda Tsunami hits.
One last request: unless this is both urgent and important, please do not email me between today and next Monday. I will have very little time to reply, and I rather stay focused on the spiritual matter during these sacred days.
Many thanks and kind regards
Yesterday I spent an hour and a half talking to two friends, trying to unbrainwash them about Russia and Ukranazistan. I started from the Civil War and went on to the current situation, with proof (videos, photos, articles, graphics) of everything I said. Then we got to Bucha and they started talking about civilians being killed. I gave them the woke timeline, the corpses being pulled by ropes, etc, then they said “but but there were mass graves”.
I had to finally explain that Russia is fighting primarily in Russian speaking areas and the last thing it will do is massacre Russian speakers, many of whom are literally the friends and family members of the Russian soldiers involved.
My condolences. I suspect that you had little to no success convincing them about the truth:-(
@ Biswapriya Purkayastha
Thank you for that one, you have coined the best term to describe 404.
I am close to divorcing my wife (just kidding!) for the same reason. “Unbrainwashing” (you’re prolific!) is a hard task, without first removing the conditioned mindset which feeds on the dominant narrative. They pick that narrative from the MSM, and their mindset is enslaved to their vocabulary. If you say “Bucha false flag,” they say “I saw the bodies.” It is similar to arguing with the army of COVID-19 microbiologist, infectologist, who “had done their own research.”
A Sisyphean task.
Then west Mass News Media set up the Trusted News Initiative (TNI) to unify their narratives, just to make sure no strayers.
TNI, Trusted News Initiative?
Thanks! That gave me the second laugh of the morning, after “Ukronazistan” and “Unbrainwash.”
Yes i have also tried with friends,but how does one explain years of history in an hour? they just go by the last BBC or SKY report,its almost impossible to de condition them,a few weeks ago i was shopping in my local suprmarket,a Woman stuck a collection bucket inmy face and said she was collecting for the people of Ukraine,i asked have you collected for the people of Donbass? she said where? i replied exactly then walked away.
The closer Russia comes to concluding/winning this war the more the West will lash out irrationally all culminating in an all out embargo of Russian gas and oil thus destroying themselves in the process.
Like you, I’ll also be traveling to a distant parish for Holy Pascha. God bless you during Holy Week and stay safe on your journey!
“Wimbledon Plans to Bar Russian and Belarusian Players”. Front page headline in The New York Times today.
My pen says “ZEBRA Z-Grip”.
They’re going to have to get rid of that Z.
Among people ready to fight there’s the expression, “I’m going to beat some sense into him.” Russians are people too. Luckily, Putin is diplomatic, a peaceful person, debonair, elegant (Pompeo), transparent (Bush), more strategic, and more patient too (hopefully).
Bless you, Andrei
enjoy your personal space while the world is turning towards a clearer one. You have served this honorable goal so much, as many of us, that you ‘de-serve’ your individual time. Don’t forget about yourself and your beloved. Nothing can stop what’s coming, anymore. It has been written in the eternal blog.
Kudos! My best wishes from the heart
Tass.ru reported on news published in the “Luhansk Information Center,” re: UkroWehrmach troops withdrawing from the triangle Rubizhne/Severodonetsk/Lysychansk.
This is an important development. Two days ago I posted about the taking of Kremennaya as a crucial point in threatening the rear of Ukro troops, and followed up yesterday with Russian troops moving south, having to face Ukro troops positioned in the triangle Rubizhne/Severodonetsk/Lysychansk.
The good news is, those Ukro troops moved before the Russian/Allies army closed up on them. There are no specifics about which direction they moved to ,“I will not say yet where, what and how, so as not to reveal the tactical operational situation,” said the source, logical speculation would assume they are not stupid, they moved out in the opposite direction of the about to close cauldron.
The source hopes this will continue the pattern started in Kremennaya, mass surrender of Ukro troops, best option for everyone involved. No reason for the Ukrainian people to die for the Empire of Lies and their criminal, domestic despots, the oligarchs and their puppets in government.
Luhanskinformcenter reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are leaving the area of Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk
The source of the agency did not specify the details, so as not to “disclose the operational situation”
Kiev security forces withdraw from Severodonetsk triangle – soldier
Armed formations of Ukraine leave the area of Rubizhne – Severodonetsk – Lysychansk. This was told to LITSA by one of the servicemen who are now in the combat zone near Rubezhne.
“According to the currently available information, a lot of Ukrainian troops are leaving the so-called triangle (Rubezhne – Severodonetsk – Lysychansk district) at these moments. I will not say yet where, what and how, so as not to reveal the tactical operational situation. That is, there is a very great hope that it will be like According to Kremennaya. They just left and that was it. Well, then they are waiting, of course, a lot of “surprises” in other places, and they know about it, therefore, I think, there will be a further mass surrender into the hands of peacekeeping forces,” the soldier said.
Earlier, the official representative of the Defense Ministry of the Republic, Ivan Filiponenko, said that Kremennaya completely came under the control of the People’s Militia of the LPR…
“The source hopes this will continue the pattern started in Kremennaya, mass surrender of Ukro troops, best option for everyone involved. No reason for the Ukrainian people to die for the Empire of Lies and their criminal, domestic despots, the oligarchs and their puppets in government.”
“I was just a puppet, not really responsible for anything, a ‘ventriloquist doll’ in fact.” Zelensky might say it if captured and placed on the dock.
what is the link of Nightvision Saker mentioned?
@ jeremija krstic on April 20, 2022 · at 9:19 am EST/EDT
what is the link of Nightvision Saker mentioned?
You may need night vision to see it. Or infrared lenses. :-)
Sorry for the confusion, you might be new around the Vineyard.
Let me explain it in a nutshell.
The Saker owns the Vineyard, and he posts the main analysis every so often in the section “SAKER ANALYSES AND INTERVIEWS.” There are many guests whose articles/videos are posted in the section “GUEST ANALYSES” regularly. And there are people who contribute with Situation Reports, which are posted in the “SITREPS” section, Nightvision (nickname) is one of contributors.
If you go to the Front Page of the Vineyard, scroll down and you will see all the sections and the latest articles.
Hope that helps.
Russia is doing a great job with defeating the Ukrainian military in the SMO. But not doing as good a job in the liberated territories. The Ukrainian loyalist have left behind terror murder squads in that area. And while Russian forces have discovered a few of them, but by far not all.Yesterday the terrorists murdered a pro-Russian blogger in Kherson. A city that is pretty safely in liberated territory. Russia cannot afford to lose Ukrainian pro-Russians like that.They need more Ukrainians to openly support them.And having prominent ones be murdered under their nose makes others be too afraid to come out and support Russia.Which is exactly the idea of the Ukrainian terrorists.
Russia needs to send more crack police units to those areas. Along the lines of the SMERCH units of WW2. They need to offer large rewards to informers for information on pro-Ukrainian elements left in the areas. And arrest or kill the Ukrainian terrorists before they are able to strike. I posted a while back that the pacification of the liberated areas would be hard and bloody work. But it has to be done if Russia’s goals are to be accomplished. And those areas made safe for the citizens to come out in support of Russia.In the long run there is no more important goal in the SMO than that.As we saw in the LDNR over the years Ukrainian terror squads were able to infiltrate and murder important leaders of the Republics. Russia can not permit a repeat of those events in the newly liberated territories. No matter how harshly that must be repressed,it must be done,and done quickly,there is little time to lose.
@ Uncle Bob
Policing a town while fighting a war is not an easy task, unless you go nazi and start imprisoning/massacring entire cities, towns, and villages. I see all kind of demands from Russia day in and day out on this venue, “Russia should do this, Russia should do that,” and I understand the intentions are good, we all want to see Russia succeed in this enterprise, in which we all have vested interests.
However, Russia is doing what it can to police occupied towns, and we cannot demand more.
“…Russian special services managed to clean up most of the activists in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, which allowed them to stop mass protests – they have not been held for almost 3 weeks.”
I am sure that among those pro-nazi “activists” creating mayhem in these towns, there are some who are killing pro-Russian Ukrainians. Russia cannot post a bodyguard on everyone who expresses their support for Russia. People should be aware denazifying Ukraine will be a long process, and should be careful when expressing their opinions.
The fact there are Russian soldiers in these towns doesn’t guarantee anything, SBU networks continue to be active, coordinating activities with the center in Kiev. SBU death squads will be out and about, Gonzalo Lira is a well known example.
In defeat, UkroWehrmacht resistance will go underground.
‘Nobody really knows how many Ukrainians are still in the Donbass cauldron, and neither do we know how their morale and determination to stand and fight to the end is. For all these reasons giving even an approximate timeframe for this battle is impossible, at least for me.“
Drugs, like Captagon, were a big factor in ISIS resistance. With the WW II Nazis, it was Pervetin. I have to wonder if the Banderites are on anything.
The Chechens have released videos showing various drugs and needles in houses captured from the Ukrops/Azov, mostly amphetamines and methadone.
They told you that we were monsters.
We were the last warriors who fought the satanic jewish banking cartel that rules you today.
The future of ex-MSNBC Malcolm Nance.
deceased African-American man in civilian clothes near Azovstal
Scroll down to the 15th pic.
A mystery how an African-American man dressed in civilian clothes was found dead in a park close to Azovstal. With thousands of dead, and counting, there is no time to investigate who he was, whether he was a merc with the UkroWehrmacht.
We can be sure he wasn’t hanging out in the park.
This is the second picture of a dead foreigner I see in a week. The first case was a man from Arab ancestry, didn’t specify which country, Ukronazis dumped him in a trash bin, dressed in full uniform, handcuffed, after killing him. He was probably trying to surrender, like many others who didn’t live after that. Same fate might have befallen this African-American man, so far from home, thrown on the street like a dead animal.
May Allah have mercy on his soul.
Foreign students study in many cities of Russia and Ukraine, not only in the capitals. And there were students from Africa, India, and Arab countries in Mariupol. But this is just a version, an assumption.
May God Bless you with holy and energizing experiences.
Your work is important and so are you.
Russia is important to us all; her cause is just.
Russian spirit is what will determine the outcome.
Rest is a requirement not to be neglected.
Hope is alive and well in Faith.
Love and Peace!
Take this news with a grain (or two) of salt.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is announcing to have “squeezed out the Nazi trash from the territory of the city,” while earlier I posted the “Lugansk Information Center” reported the UkroWehrmacht left the triangle Rubezhnoye/Severodonets/Lysychans’k. That means they might not have been “squeezed out,” they left on their own, and the Chechen brothers took control of the town because it might have been empty.
We know Kadyrov is a good man, a true patriot, heart in the right place, just a bit boastful.
We should wait for more info to filter out the facts before passing judgment.
Good thing is, one corner of the triangle is under total control of the Chechen brothers, Russian flag and all (see video). Wonder what is happening with the other two.
Russians calculated @ 10,000 troops in this triangle, forming the rear of the UkroWehrmacht, taking them was vital to close the cauldron.
Good job for day 3.
As A. Martyanov points out in his latest video, there are about 150 Kms. between Izyum and Ugledar, potential closing points for the cauldron, and who knows how many Ukros in between.
We have to be patient and see what happens.
Kadyrov announced the capture of the city of Rubezhnoye in the LPR
The Russian military and the People’s Militia of the LPR “squeezed out” Ukrainian soldiers from the territory of the city of Rubezhnoye, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said.
“As we expected, the city of Rubizhne in the Luhansk People’s Republic came under the final control of Russian troops. Fighters of the Training center of the SOBR “Akhmat” together with Russian servicemen and units of the People’s Militia of the LPR squeezed out the Nazi trash from the territory of the city,” Kadyrov wrote in his Telegram channel.
He added that the deputy commander of the unit, Khasein Muduyev, hoisted the banner at the entrance to the city, and now “every follower of Bandera’s ideology” will think before going in the direction of Rubizhne.
“Even if he dares, this step will cost him extremely dearly, since the Chechen security forces are firmly established in the city and have already begun to protect its residents around the clock,” the head of Chechnya concluded.
Earlier on Wednesday, the media reportedthat units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were leaving the “triangle” – the area of Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk.
Earlier it was reported that the LPR took full control of the city of Kremennaya, the Ukrainian military fled. In total, since the beginning of the operation in the Donbass, more than three thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have surrendered.
“Finland’s Parliament opened a debate on Wednesday about whether to seek NATO membership,” – NYT.
Looks more like looking for a fight than running for protection, doesn’t it?
“Ukraine’s profane stamp that has become a symbol of resistance sells out.” -NYT.
It’s of a soldier who shows his middle finger towards the Moskva ship. Of course, this type of thing is going to lose them support from educated or intelligent citizens in Ukraine, if that support is not gone already…
Glad to see the onslaught that marks the start of phase II. No part of the country should be immune from the war, much as no part of the Donbass was immune over the last few years. President Rectal Probe is so bored with this war— at the moment the White House is consumed with potential appeals of “masking up” on trains, planes, and UBER! There has been no media coverage of the 50 senators who CAN’T WAIT to send US forces into Ukraine.
Even before the special military operation started I bought coins from both Ukraine and Russia that symbolized peace and honored religious traditions of both countries.
The coin above can’t be seen as honoring peace, religious tradition or anything sacred.
May the people of Ukraine realize how they have been played by the elites in the west in the worst possible way.
God help them and Russia.
This is going to be a heart-wrenching event, a combination of the struggle against the nazis in WWII and 2022, with all the martyrs from then and from the last 8 years of nazi crimes against humanity in Donbass.
A painful recollection of human tragedy and grief, now looking into a different horizon.
In Mariupol, they decided to hold a march of the “Immortal Regiment” on May 9
The march of the “Immortal Regiment” will be held on Victory Day in Mariupol, Deputy Mayor of the city Viktoria Kalacheva told reporters.
“Of course, it will take place… Mariupol residents are very much looking forward to this event,” she said when asked whether a mass march will be held in Mariupol on May 9, TASSreports.
She added that the “Immortal Regiment” is “the most important and most patriotic event to be held this year on May 9.”
German Media today (quote):
“The new Babyn Yar – up to 9000 bodies in mass graves.
Satellite images taken by the Maxar Technologies company show more than 200 mass graves near Mariupol. You can see that the excavation of the graves began at the end of March and the work has intensified in recent days.
According to the Mariupol City Council, up to 9,000 people are believed to have been buried in mass graves in Manhush. “At that time Hitler killed Jews, now Putin is exterminating Ukrainians,” the city council quoted the mayor as saying. This, he said, requires a firm response from the entire world.”
Ironic. You are the Nazis now. Better do not loose this war of they will find gas chambers at some point. ;-)
Pics and vids are now coming out on Telegram app, showing AUF losses from phase two in Donbass. Units of AUF are sitting in trenches and dugouts by key roads and on lines across open steppe, the results of heavy RF shelling barrages are bad news for UAF. As starting see evidence of lot of UAF bodies. UAF in these positions are cannon fodder at this point. Likewise, seems RF are irritated by AUF/Asov roving ambushes using civilian vehicles around Donbass, so RF Special Forces now seem to be actively hunting them down, both in day ambushes, and at night using advanced equipment to find their hides and wipe them out. The Ukrainian body count from this phase is going to be really high.
Taffy: the Russian alphabet is a slight variant of the Greek and consequently many of the words in the use in Russian that are of classical Greek derivation, that are also used in Western European languages, are very easy to decipher, from the perspective of a native Roman alphabet reader, even when written in Cyrillic. For example, the полиция, means police, and is not too far enough in pronunciation from the Italian and Spanish equivalents. Russian grammar and lexicon are, needless to say, principally of Slavic derivation (itself of Indo-European origin), but then so is the case with Polish, which though written using the Roman alphabet potentially poses greater pronunciation problems to the average Westerner than would Russian. In any case, Greek is of course Greek to the average Westerner and yet it is not perceived as un-Western and the “Russian alphabet” (Cyrillic) is a close derivative of the Greek, by express and quite conscious design.
The western media are still hyperbolic Russophobic – UK tabloids are full of alleged Russian failure and disaster stories, with no evidence, and US MSM are still claiming the same with claims of Ukrainian successes.
BUT – look a little closer, and see The Guardian starting to publish, what if…Russia might just win this thing and what will it mean. Meanwhile, CNN are starting to publish open laments as to why won’t ordinary Russian’s just do what US wants, and go against Presidency of Putin. In essence, there is an under current of defeat slowly appearing in western MSM. Both in recognizing RF are not going to abandon their strategic mission because of NATO pressure, and that Russian citizen’s are not absorbing the daily (massive) western PSYCH-OPs anti-Putin program. The western is slowly MSM hinting at a frustration and confusion by both, because, they believe in their own BS, rhetoric and most of all, power of influence (as it works inside the west). They believe if they publish that RF will lose, it will happen, and if they call for anti-Putin sentiment inside Russia, they can make it happen through relentless media propaganda.
The reality is this war will continue grinding on for some time. As will the western public Russophopia. But the western MSM will slowly shift focus over course of months, as fickle western public loses interest. In time, to the western public the situation will become relatively normalized, in a media sense, as with Syria, a background conflict story. And Zelensky will become yesterday’s news, forever shrieking in background about Russia. There will come a moment when the west will be forced to accept a new reality. That, this is really happening, that Russia is standing up for itself against US expansionism, will not back down to external US pressure, and is in Ukraine for keeps. And despite the US efforts, there is nothing that is going to turn this seismic change in geo-strategic circumstances around. It is however going to take some in west a while at accept it, and they will throw predictable tantrums, as the high water mark for a PNAC-Unipolar US dominated global order recedes. Russia’s actions in Ukraine are, of course, a delayed response to the Neo-Con controlled US militarist/adventurist state, and its aggressively expansionist behavior over last two decades. It just took two decades for Russia to be in any recovery position to be capable of doing anything about it.
Christos Anesti! Christos Voskresye!
I confess I didn’t read this entire report – If I see references to the Ukraine bolsheviks phase 2 led by a homo fake jew comedian as “Nazis” – I immediately know I am either dealing with a dim bulb or a misinformation type.
Christos voskres! Vo istino voskres!