First, since we have more reliable data about what happened, let me recap a few key points to being:
- It is has now become pretty clear that Iran took several steps to make sure that the US would know when and where the strike would happen. Specifically, Iran warned the Iraqi government and the Swiss diplomats who represent US interests in Iran.
- Yet, at the same time, Iran issued the strongest threat it could possibly issue: it told the US that *any* counter-strike aimed at Iran would result in a strong Iranian attack on Israel.
- The US quite clearly took the decision not to retaliate and to “forget” Trump’s promise to strike at 54 Iranian targets. I want to stress here that this was the correct decision under these circumstances.
- It also appears that the Iranians were able to somehow retrofit some kind of terminal guidance capability on missiles which originally lacked it.
- The level or precision of the strikes was absolutely superb and quite amazing.
- Trump declared that Iran decided to step down and that the US had prevailed. This notion is, of course, prima facie ridiculous, but not for folks getting their news from the corporate media.
- The Iranians declared that this specific strike was now over, but immediately added that this was only a first measure and that other would follow.
Next, I want to share a few interesting photos with you.
First, here is a photo of the base following the strikes sent to me by a friend:
Here is what my friend added: The key idea is really simple and understandable for anybody who has thought about statistics (even in an everyday context). In number terms, it’s almost like rolling a dice and getting a 6 three times in a row, because the probability of rolling a 6 with an ideal dice is 16.67% (and the probability to roll 3 sixes in a row is less than 1%) as opposed to roughly 18% probability for a hit on a building within the map area in the CNN screenshot (if we assume the missiles to be unguided within this area). To be even more precise, the probability for hitting 3 *different* buildings 3 times in a row is actually even slightly lower than 0.62%, as one would have to substract the area being hit from the total area covered by buildings (I ignored that for simplicity). A less than 1% probability for a one-off event like this means that it is really highly UNlikely – to use the British Skripal case expression in its inverted state – to have happened randomly, as we assumed in our hypothesis. Which means that the missiles were, indeed, guided, and guided very accurately, striking targets of less than ~50m size with a high degree of reliability (in this particular area 3/3, in others probably 1/1 as in the runway case, etc). Perhaps, some of them, not covered by the satellite images, missed the target, but it does not substantially change the high degree of accuracy that potential Iranian opponents within reach of these missiles will have to assume from now on. The people most interested in this were probably the Israelis, as they are probably the main potential target for this type of missile in the case of a future escalation.
Please note that neither my friend nor I are professional imagery analysts and that this is just something my friend shared with me in a private email and which I now want to share with you.
If any professional imagery analyst could either confirm/refute my friend’s conclusions, I would be most grateful.
Next, I want to share with you the following image which shows Iranian IRGC General Ali Amir Hajizadeh reviews results of recent Iranian missile strikes on Ain al-Assad airbase in Iraq during a press conference:
Clearly, the Iranians are very proud of their capability to conduct true precision strikes with an accuracy every bit as good as any Russian and/or US missile.
Finally, check out this image of the Iranian general making a press conference in front of a very interesting row of flags:
These flags include the following: The Iranian flag, the IRGC flag, the flag of IRGC’s Aerospace Force, the flag of the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthi Ansarullah flag, the flag of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), the Palestinian Hamas, the Afghan Liwa Fatemiyoun and the Pakistani Liwa Zainebiyoun
I find this very interesting: when Trump (or any other US politician) makes a solemn pronouncement, he typically has a number of aides, advisors, generals, Congressmen or Senators, etc. This is supposed the show the determination, resolve and unity of Uncle Shmuel, especially when Uncle Shmuel does something illegal or immoral.
The Iranian show of unity does not show more Iranians, they show the unity of all the forces in the Middle-East who have now officially united and whose goal is clear and very official: kick Uncle Shmuel out of the Middle-East.
You tell me which you find more impressive!
Next, the issue of casualties. Frankly, and while this is only my best guess, I do not believe the Iranian official casualty figures. Why? Well, first the Iranians did not try to maximize casualties (more about that option below), and they informed the US by several back-channels. But even if they had not, while the performance of the Patriot missile is pretty awful, the US does have a lot of top of the line technical intelligence means which would allow them to first detect the launch of the missiles from Iran and then to calculate their ballistic trajectory. As far as I know, now I might be wrong here, Iranian missiles do not have terminal maneuvering capability (which is different from terminal guidance). I can’t image why US commanders could not announce a incoming missile alert and then get all the local personnel into shelters. Again, I might be missing something, so if any reader can correct me, I would be grateful.
So what happened, really?
Here are a few of my current working hypotheses:
1) BOTH the USA and Iran don’t want a fullscale war. But for VERY different reasons:
- The US probably understands that it cannot win a war against Iran
- The Iranians definitely understand that while the US cannot “win”, it most definitely can kill Iranians by the thousands and inflict immense damage upon the Iranian society
2) What just took place was the single most dangerous moment since 14 April 2018 when Russia and the US came very, very close to a full-scale war. In the current situation, the US and Iran also came very, very close to a full scale war. The only reason I rank this latest crisis lower than the April 14th is that in one case we risked a planetary nuclear war whereas in this case we “only” risked a regional war which, by the way, could have seen nukes used by the US and Israel.
3) There STILL is a risk of full-scale war between the US and Iran, however, and barring a major unforeseen event, I will lower it now down from 80% to a much more tolerable 50%. Why 50%? Because Israel and the Israel Lobby will continue to push for a US attack on Iran and because while I trust the Iranians to keep their anti-US operations right below the threshold of “plausible deniability”, I cannot be sure that all Iranian allies will show similar restraint. Finally, the chances of an Israeli false flag as still sky high.
4) I expect anti-US operations to continue and even expand throughout the Middle-East. I don’t expect that these operations will be executed from Iran and I don’t expect Iranian forces to be involved, at least not officially. The Iranians know that the US has lost every single counter-insurgency war it was involved in and they know that their best chance is now to engage in all forms of asymmetrical operations.
Finally, I want to spell out what we could call the new Iranian threat.
We have to assume that Iran now has terminal guidance capability on many (most?) of its ballistic and cruise missiles and that they can destroy one specific building amongst many more buildings. Now, remember the Iranian reply that it had 35 US bases within missile range? Now imagine this first one:
- Iran fires 10-12 missile on each and every one of the 35 US bases listed and targets barracks, fuel and ammo dumps, key command posts, etc. How many casualties do you think that such a strike would result in?
Next, let’s try the same thing with Israel:
- Iran fires 2-3 missiles but carefully aims them as Israeli air force bases, personnel barracks, industrial sites (including chemical and nuclear sites, not even necessarily military ones! Dimona anybody?), the Knesset or even Bibi’s personal residence. Can you imagine the panic in Israel?
How about the KSA?
- Iran fires a large amount of missiles aimed at *truly* crippling the Saudi oil installations, National Guard barracks, airfields, etc. We already know what the Houthis could do with their very limited resources. Just imagine what Iran could do to the KSA (or the UAE and Kuwait) if it wanted to!
I think that the bottom line is clear: Iran can inflict unacceptable damage upon any party attacking it. Furthermore, and unlike having “a few” nukes, Iran has hundreds (or even thousands) of cruise missile and ballistic missiles, and you can bet that they are well distributed and well protected,as shown by this short video released by the IRGC and posted by the FARS news agency:
and that means that a disarming first strike against Iran is not possible.
There are two basic ways to respond to an attack: denial and punishment. In the first case, you have the means to deny your enemy his attack, this is what happened with the Syrians intercepted almost all the cruise missiles fired by the US. Punishment is when you cannot prevent an enemy attack, but you do have the means to inflict unacceptable damage in retaliation.
The key notion here is “unacceptable damage”.
What do you think constitutes “unacceptable damage” to the (terminally hedonistic) Israelis?
What do you think would be “unacceptable damage” to the KSA, or the world markets (especially oil)?
What about “unacceptable damage” in terms of losses for CENTCOM?
And, finally, what do you think “unacceptable damage” means to the Iranians?
There is such a huge asymmetry in how the parties to this conflict see “unacceptable damage” that is largely compensates for the asymmetry in force. Yes, sure, the US+Israel are more powerful than Iran (well, not Israel really, but Israel hiding behind the back of the US forces) but Iran is far more capable of absorbing devastating attacks than either the US or Israel.
Finally, in my last post I offered a definition of what constitutes success or failure for Iran: “anything which makes it easier for the US to remain in the Middle-East is a victory for the Empire and anything which makes it harder for the US to remain in the Middle-East is a victory for the rest of the planet.”
At this point my personal opinion is that the way the Iranians conducted their first anti-Empire operation is nothing short of brilliant: they achieved a truly phenomenal result with very little means and, most importantly, without forcing the Empire to counter-attack.
Has the US-Iran war really begun? Yes, I think so. In fact, it began in 1979, but now it has reached a qualitatively new level. The outcome of that war is absolutely evident to me. The cost, however, is not.
This have relatively cooled down, but that is an illusion and we should most definitely not take our eyes of the situation in the Middle-East: expect the initiation of asymmetrical anti-US operations very soon.
Another excellent assessment. Thank you. The one thing I would question is if it’s possible to know what the US government wants? So many factions and so many fluid positions. Maybe they don’t want war today. Just give them a few days. In the end, I think it’s just a matter of time before ignorance and arrogance leads them to bomb Iran. Considering Israel’s attacks today, it appears they still want a major war. I expect Iran to be attacked sooner, rather than later.
“The one thing I would question is if it’s possible to know what the US government wants?”
It is very clear. The US has said so openly. The US wants Full Spectrum Dominance. This includes ALL the factions of the US. The different factions do not differ in their objectives, only in the ways to achieve them.
Might be a bit hard to get “full spectrum dominance” when they have shown their bases are open to missile strikes.
If Iran can humiliate them like this imagine what the Russians could do.
Exactly. Amazing how Iran does it by the book and counter attacks according to UN res. 52 and takes the high road on admitting the shoot down.
Yet the next day, Pompeo is egging on protests and Trump is tweeting in Farsi !
Seems there is no points for taking the high road. Now we know why Putin never went through the UN on Crimea. And now we know why Russia didn’t give an INCH on MH-17. Because you cant with this ruthless scumbag Anglo axis !
There is a simple answer and it was given many time. US Govt. wants what Israel and AIPAC and the 70 million of ‘Christian Zionists’ want. Destruction of ME states that could pose a threat to Israel as the first step for the realization of Greater Israel (Oded Yinon Plan) and vassal states in key strategic points. Mountains of corpses of Gog Magog to fulfil the ‘prophecies’ of Armageddon. (Gog and Magog are code words for Russians and Iranians). Weakening of all powers that may resist (physically or spiritually) the instauration of the messianic kingdom (the Katechon! Russia, the Orthodox Church, for example).
This is why they must destroy Iran, like they did in Russia under Stalin. Iran is one of the few places the AANZ has not ‘culled’ by 10’s of millions, e.g. destroy all political enemy’s, until this is done, Iran will not be safe for AANZ occupation.
They have already murdered +30M Russian’s years ago, so they feel quite comfortable in Russia, same for actions in Ukraine, a ‘culling’ because they want this most fertile farmland, and they want there to be nobody there when they arrive.
One of the biggest complaints by early zionist settlers in Palestine, was that the ‘good farmland’ had all, already been tilled ( occupied ), this time they want to be sure to dispose of all owners&farmers prior to settlement.
I really think the majority of Zionists will move on from Palestine, to the better farmlands on earth, and that includes Ukraine, and USA ( post civil-war rebuild 90% goy eliminated )
Of course Israel will continue to have Chinese investment and its future may very well be Asian-Nazi-Zionist, rather than Anglo-Nazi-Zionist, for now all is AANZ Anglo-Asian-Nazi-Zionism
In the past 40 years most of the billionaires are ANZ 10x come out of China every month more than the rest of the world, and of course in Israel are social-media empires going all the way back to Microsoft are all based on stolen technology to enable selected ANZ kids to be billionaires. Much the same under CCP in China, which was brought to power by ANZ
Still with the bogus numbers that Stalin killed millions, like the fake claims he personally executed 20 million or the ridicolous 60 million, that combined with the actual 27 million Soviet citizens that died because of the Western NAZI invasion. If that where the case the Soviet Union would have not had the man power to stop Hitler’s armies and history would have turned out differently. Also the NKVD and KGB archives where open to historians in 90’s after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the number that died in the nearly three decades of Stalin’s rule was around 700,000, lots of people yes, genocide of Russians no. To bad you are spouting more alt-right nonsense that I would expect in racist sites like Russia Insider, and tin foil hat fascist libertarian conspiracy theories.
Lots of bogus numbers here….. like 70 million Christian Zionists in the first post. That’s more people than voted for Trump last time around.
Trump’s brownshirt base plus the Christian Fundamentalist Fanatics base still only adds up to about 20 to 30 million people on election days. And, the most interesting thing in politics in the last few weeks was that they’ve been fighting each other with the Christian Fundamentalist Fanatics pointing out that Trump is immoral and did not deserve the support of Christians …. and that was before the Godfather openly ordered a hit on a diplomat traveling under a white flag which is in itself not a terribly moral and Christian thing to do.
Don’t confuse politicians willing to take a zionist position for their personal political advantage with being actual Christian Zionists marching off to war. The two are quite different, mainly because the former will abandon Israel when it becomes politically painful to support Israel. The pro-Armageddon Revelations Rapture faction of Pompeo and Sarah Huckabee Sanders (and her daddy) aren’t even able to win Republican primaries without alliances. Which is why they have been allied with the Trump Brownshirts and Billionaires faction and why the recent fight between them is an interesting political development.
The battle already happened and Genghis Khan lost. Their hare-witted interpretations of ‘prophecy’ only make sense to ignorant backwoods bumpkins.
That is exactly what Iran wants too. Iran wants instability in Sunni majority countries in the Middle East because they get to spread Shiism easier. You have only to read their history and observe their current actions to understand what they are looking for.
They will soon be supporting Yemeni Houthis more than they support Hezbollah. Because the Houthis give them a less costly way to spread chaos in Saudi Arabia to make it Easier for their shiite Militias to take over the Hejaz and hand it to them.
Give Iran the Hejaz and you will become their best ally, but not for long.
Are you kidding… ‘what 70 million Christian Zionists want’?? That statement right there just invalidated everything you said. If you believe that 70 million in the US want to see Iran and its people destroyed then you are either not using your brain, or more likely (with the name ‘Anonymous’) you are a dis-information troll looking to stoke things up. For a start there is a large Iranian population in the US.
Its obvious, but to refute your absurd statement; the American people are not the same as The Zionist wannabe Globalist-Ruler ‘elite’ and MIC that are the perpetrators. Trump is sadly now owned by these people. He lied his way in promising an end to all of this. That is what got him elected. We have a serious crisis of quality leadership and candidates that are true to our constitution, our culture, and the well-being of our population. I will wager that most of the American people are seriously pissed off with their government.
Western media now claims (without evidence) that Iranian Police and Military are shooting at the protesters in Iran. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/you-killed-our-geniuses-regime-crackdown-intensifies-iranians-flood-streets-third-day
This is how Regime Change has been conducted since 911.
The Empire is subjecting the targeted Nation with crippling sanctions.
When the sanction has created scarcity in the targeted Nation, the Empire foments Riots against the authorities, while covertly attacking both the protesters and the authorities, to inflame the Riots.
Simultaneously western media are baselessly blaming the targeted Nation’s leaders for the atrocities unfolding. This propaganda is to drum up public support in western nations, to Bomb and Invade the targeted Nation and replace its leaders with a Puppet government.
Western Universities are well known playgrounds for CIA and Mossad to recruit foreign agents.
The so called “Protesters” in Iran are most likely Riot-Agents hired by a foreign Entity on Canadian Universities, and conducted by the British Ambassador in Iran.
Thus it is likely that foreign snipers are deployed to shoot at the Iranian Protesters, Police and Military. Just like in Egypt in 2009, Libya in 2011, Ukraine in 2014 and Iraq in 2019.
The Entity paying students to Riot are most likely the same Entity paying snipers to shoot at the Rioters.
This is part of how Regime Change propaganda is conducted in the West.
Amnesty International in Denmark states that they have collected evidence of the Iranian security Forces on Jan. 11 and 12, 2020. Amnesty claims that the Iranian Forces were attacking the protesters in Tehran, by Hunting weapons, Rubber bullets, Pepper spray, Beating, and Kicking.
The general Secretary of Amnesty International in Denmark Trine Christensen claims that they have pictures, witnesses, and x-ray documentation of the claimed atrocities.
Among other casualties were 2 women left bleeding on the street after being shot by hunting weapons.
According to Trine Christensen, The Hunting weapons used was Airguns loaded with pellets.
Obviously Trine Christensen doesn’t know that Airgun-pellets are only able to penetrate the human skin when fired directly next to the skin. She doesn’t know that air-guns are only able to “hunt” small birds.
But such trivialities don’t matter to Amnesty International, they publish their claim only to agitate the world community to put even more pressure on Iran.
Amnesty even hopes that the UN will erects a special commission, to investigate the claimed atrocities.
The problem with the Amnesty propaganda is, that more than half of the western population believes the silly claims stated by Trine Christensen, and is now ready to accept a US-NATO-coalition attack on Iran.
That is how the western Empire get their wars started.
I think you are wrong, Saker. The AngloZionist goal here was the death of Sulemanei. They succeeded. All else is irrelevant. Shia infighting is legendary and without Sulemanei to hold things together, divide and conquer will rule.
Further, unacceptable losses to the Iranians is the destruction of their population, which is easily accomplished by the U.S. with ‘strategic’ nuclear weapons. We are in the end game and the U.S. will use its entire might to finish it.
Hans from Central Europe ? Hans, hasn’t it occurred to you yet that we all love the Shia here, and an insult to the Shia is an insult to all of us ?
The Iranians, unlike the Central Europeans are unquenchable and indomitable – you central Europeans are poodles in the lap of Israel and US. You were completely wiped out by the world war. All you will be remembered for is the killings and colonialism that has been on your watch.
So as far as I’m concerned – your opinion is laughable.
Soleimani becomes Martyr and 7 million Iranians rise up follow in his footsteps, as he watches from his Spiritual Kingdom to which he has returned.
If you think the game is over because one man has been killed – watch this documentary – https://youtu.be/ud2q-Gu2A9s?fbclid=IwAR1BQL7kPtHgaJYCwI3m1tM-FfN4ObCcm_juWTzxdl4GY5QTVtHeYAR_v9A
Well said! Hans needs to watch less MSM.
Well the video is gone. I tried to watch
Ann, you know what ? You are right !
Did you see the millions of Iranians in the streets all over Iran? and all the mourners in Iraq for the same reason?.
It was a uniting and galvanizing event for Shia.
It was a major miscalculation by the anglo Zionist empire.
They screwed the pooch on this one.
All the backpedaling and stepping down the escalation from trump showed that.
The empire and Israel will go back to what they do best; try to foment chaos, false flags and other treachery to bring about more division, and they might inflict quite a bit more damage before they leave but they will leave.
They will have to leave. Iran played this masterfully so far and it showed the world solemaini was not the only master tactician in Iran’s arsenal. It was a dare and the us blinked. How many other countries (Russia, China) have done that to the empire lately?
Give credit where it is due, they couldn’t have done better with all the power they are facing; brave little Iran spit in the face of the empire (warning them next time it will be a fist) and walked away.
There is a saying, where I come from
‘What the grandma likes is what she dreamed about”
Sulemanei was a popular general in Iran, but he was not the chief factor of unity in the country, nor was it necessary for him to be so. As for the US using nukes against Iran, so close to Europe, that is virtually impossible, bearing in mind the repercussions for the US, which has fallen to low political depths on the international field. I should think that Washington’s European allies have long ago lost all confidence in the US, with analysts these last few years pointing out that a rift will occur between US and European elites, the European ones directing their attention towards the East, which is logical, bearing in mind the recklessness of US foreign policy.
I agree with Hans, USA achieves their main goal, they murder Sulemanei and there ware no retaliation … Iranians just answered as ” do not try that again or else…” .
There hit ware unanswered! everything else is just theory….
sorry for my english is not my native language
…”hans”, be happy and keep watching cnn. You are spending your time here.
Hans and others suggesting pushing the nuclear equation
Strategic nuclear weapons are useless….. Conventional weapons of same capacity allow occupaton post strike in most cases plus plus after the event.
But nukes ?
Nuclear waste lands are the result …… waste lands and isotopes do not respect national borders food chain water or air ….. NO go areas …. period …. for 1000 s of years ……
way too many are putting Faith in nuclear strikes……
They are the beginning of the end of people globally….. and yes there are many who believe in them and may use them…
Daft foolish and stupid ……
No to nukes of any shape or size
I appreciate reasoned commentary and respectful dissent. That’s what Hans provided. I don’t necessarily agree with him, but neither do I think the responses should be ad hominem or attacking him based on ethnicity. Argue his points based on merits. I think this forum can do better, and usually does.
Hans and others,
Nuclear weapons are useless … period
Strategic or otherwise….
Conventional allows retaking lands….
Nuclear isotopes = waste lands for centuries….
Nuclear isotopes are the end of life
“Nuclear isotopes = waste lands for centuries….”
you mean as in nakasaki and hiroshima……?
I generally agree with you that they are useless except used as a powerfull multipurpose PSYOP tool.
Nakasaki hiroshima I dont know exactly if top soils were scraped off to enable life to continue on top. But the US machine did do loads of analysis on this event just after and kept all data taken under wraps….
Thus to best of my knowledge we dont have primary sources to work with to build strong anti nuke argumnets … Its a huge study in itself.
Go to abolitioncaucus and seek out commentaries there…
Jelly babies in these areas still being born.
and now we have Fukishima Diachi since 2011 and still bubbling over ….. North pacific dying ! but no debate…
Nuke isotopes and nuke power stations waste are lethal toxic and cant be stored safely !!!!
Your knowledge of nuclear weapons seems limited. While ground explosions lead indeed to a lot of fallout, air-bursts do so a lot less. Meaning the area that gets actually severely contaminated is relatively small. (Of course the yield also matters but tactical nuclear weapons have very low yields). A nuclear bomb is not the same as a nuclear reactor meltdown a la Chernobyl or Fukushima. Now if a nuclear bomb were to hit a nuclear power plant, that would be a different story. Nuclear weapons are the last ‘shock and awe’ tool uncle Sam feels it has up its sleeve against Iran, and given that the current madman in the white house has publicly stated he would use them if needs be I don’t see why he would not, with the right conditions.
I have to agree with some here who caution against the ad hominem attacks. With all pride at the strikes against the US, my personal conviction is the US is not YET ready for war. That does not mean it won’t be in the near future. Elections are coming and if Trump gets re-elected then all gloves are off for him to pursue whatever he wishes to pursue. The global economy will crater soon, and a war on Iran is the ideal ‘cover’. The threat of impeachment will also have been reduced, thanks to the current charade (which I think is no coincidence).
Let’s not forget what the Saker himself posits on many occasions, the goal of the US is not the conquest of Iran, the goal is to cripple the country and throw it back to the ‘stone-ages’. Trump does not care about his own public image or that of the US abroad, we have seen that on countless occasions and it won’t be a deterrent at all.
Modern Thermo-Nuclear weapons just heat the air so every living thing in the region’s lung’s explode, but no residual contamination.
While Nagasaki, & Hiroshima may have been atomic bombs, aka dirty bombs, modern thermo-nuclear weapons can actually destroy all life, but leave assets intact.
Essentially its Fusion versus Fission, the old bombs were fission of Uranium, and leaving radio-active particles.
New bombs is just helium and and the residual is inert gases.
It’s pretty clear from the MAD day’s the the status-quo that rule the world, really don’t want to use nukes. Just look at the after effect of Chernobyl, or Nakashima, but those were failed reactors a completely different thing, but it makes property worthless, and you all must remember that the ANZ at heart are realtors. They care not about human-life, but their main means to an end is drop the price and buy cheap and resell dear. Make war, make land worthless, then rebuild, thus billionaries become trillionaires.
Here is today’s wind direction map from Iran, which would show you where the fallout would go. https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/static/iran/6/win
Based on the wind map, a lot of wind in central iran is going to the east, but in the north of Iran, it’s coming from the north and going to the south, and in the Persian Gulf area, it’s actually going towards the southeast and into Saudi Arabia. You can click ahead six hours at a time and see what the wind forecast is. If you do, the direction of the wind varies. Around January 15, the wind is mainly to the south in iran, but in Israel, the wind is coming from the south, which means that the fallout cloud from somewhere in Iran could sweep around the Arabian peninsula and come up through Israel. Click ahead to January 16 and the wind is going northwest up into Russia and then southwest into Europe. This shows the wind pattern in Iran is variable. It’s not like a nuclear test in the Pacific where the testers can count on a prevailing trade wind blowing in the same direction most of the time.
Here is a video on the fallout pattern of just a single 1 megaton bomb dropped on the nuclear facility in Central Iran where the wind is going to the east. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dn83i2RQI48. According to the video, the fallout cloud would extend all the way to India. The video estimates 3 million deaths for just one bomb. Of course, a lot of these deaths are over years, through increased rates of cancer, not immediate.
But the cloud will go over Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northern India only if the wind is going to the east when the bomb is dropped. If the wind shifted, the fallout cloud could go in a different direction, perhaps even through Russia and into Europe.
Hans wants the U.S. to drop enough strategic nukes to destroy the entire population of Iran. The video shows that the area of “50 percent death within two weeks” is very small compared with the entire fallout cloud. Blanketing Iran with such kill zones is impossible without poisoning the entire surrounding area with fallout.
If that was the “goal”, then that is very poor strategic thinking. It is poor because it has made what should be a tactical decision into an ultimate goal. Its one thing to say that a side believes that if a person is eliminated then they are more likely to achieve their goals in the absence of that person. But, it is very poor thinking to focus on eliminating a person as the actual goal.
Maybe its just because Russians know how to play Chess while Americans know how to play Candy Crush. In chess, the goal is to capture the opposing King and force the side’s surrender in that fashion. The player who says “that bishop has been a giant pain in my ass and I’m going to get it no matter what the cost” is highly unlikely to be able to win even a local game of chess in the park.
Actually, chess came from Persia.
I agree i think the saker engages in wishful thinking , the conventional advances are not nearly enough , while iran targets its missiles to hit targets 500 miles away the US / Israel is flying their f35s loaded with ordinance right on top of of their heads , they will have no chance and they know it , case in point … missile commanders nervously shooting missiles hallucinating wildly and hitting the wrong targets !
The US will double down on everything all across the board. They will bribe as many groups as they can not to fight them. They will look to starve out Iran. by playing the long game. They look at the Iranian slap as lame & weak. They have become more emboldened. As I write this the Israeli’s are bombing along the Syra/Iraq border.
Taking into account what the Saker has just clearly written above – What do you think this bombing along the Syria/Iraq border will achieve?
This is currently an allegation, but if true, it only plays into the resistance hands and will make the Iraqi’s and everyone else more determined to rid their lands of US/Western forces.
They look at the Iranian slap as lame & weak…
Do they? The morning after the Iranian attack, at the press conf., Trump and entourage all had stone faces, and they looked as if they didn’t sleep for days.
If they were not impressed, they will strike back immediately, and Trump will be boasting on TV the very minute they start. Instead we got a lame twitt: “All is good. See ya tommorrow… “.
This was brilliant move for Iran as it gave the required retaliation that showed their strength just enough that they intimidate their enemy and boost their own morale but did so without causing enough harm to provoke a full scale retaliation—at least not immediately. I hope they are as wise and patient as they appear. I do think though, that if they really wanted to show strong solidarity to the west-America—the general should have had notables from each group standing with him on the platform, not just a flag representing each country.
The demonstration of Iranian capabilities means that the US is more likely to use nuclear weapons to achieve its ends. What the Iranians have done is demonstrate to the US that the only way to defeat Iran and have acceptable casualties is to use nukes.
“To save American lives” is sufficient reason for the US public to accept and even approve the use of nukes.
We are in dangerous times.
Nuclear weapons are not the only WMDs. If the US or Israel uses them, then they will quickly find out what else is around. Just imagine the consequences to the US economy if its pork and poultry industries were destroyed by African swine fever and bird flu. Or a nice cyber-attack on the US power grid.
I think the US now finds it easier to stay, because Trump wants to stay. He sees that he can deal tactically with whatever is thrown at the US in Iraq and Syria. He will stick it out for the entire year, get re-elected and then maybe pull troops.
He has Iran wanting to talk. He’s got the momentum.
“He has Iran wanting to talk. He’s got the momentum.”
Not too sure about that. The axis of resistance has announced that they will act as one to remove the US from the region. This means we can expect unexpected action from the various components of the axis leading to confusion and disorientation on the US side.
The danger that I see is that it is clear that the US can only win by going nuclear. The US will not give up until it has exhausted the nuclear option too.
Iran could go nuclear on Israel also. Dirty bomb (radioactive dust) over major cities would make them uninhabited.
Are you getting your news from the corporate media lately, Larchmonter445? Isn’t it the other way around?
According to the commander of the Aerospace Division of Iran’s IRGC; “This is the first time that US bases are targeted since WWII, and the US dares not even retaliate, but focuses on media action” (it seems the CIA/Mossad terrorists even right away crashed a plane so that the media have something to destract with), and; “What’s important is we managed to break the prestige of America.”
You’ll see who’s got the momentum (in the US-Iran war since 1979), and who’s wanting to talk.
Laika, you so don’t get it. Instead of attacking one of our best thinkers, calm down and read again Larchmonter445’s words and THINK!
while I always appreciate Larchmonter445 words, other people are due an opinion.
Oliver, you are correct.
Never fear an opposing POV, well-thought out, especially if its facts are true. I like it when another voice is presented.
Sometimes our differences are narrower than they seem.
As I have said, never underestimate your opposition. The US clearly does that with almost all adversaries. They punch tar babies and get stuck. However, the US is not merely an economic hegemon, it is a massive, sociopathic military led and coerced by psychopaths and ideologues.
Proposing that a relatively small power like Iran can sustain against the evil the US can deliver across all the weapons it possesses is foolish. The US has many ways to tear apart Iran without “going to war” as we think about it. Yugoslavia was torn to pieces and rearranged the way the US wanted it without a full fledged war. On the ground was full-fledged war using proxies, but the US wasn’t there. It finished it with air power. Overall, suffering few casualties and kicking China in the face along the way. Lots of lessons to learn from that “war”.
Iran is not Yugoslavia. It is not only Iran that has been attacked but a great part of the Islamic world.
Not a hair in my head thinks that Trump ordered this event. But he is an American and supports his country. hence the flag tweed If he had ordered it their would have been a very different tweet. the Mossad Cia and friends yes. Israel denied responsibility. “Don’t believe it until it is officially denied” is the motto. The Satan lied he always does he can do nothing else. But beware of the battle between David and Goliat. Don’t exclude surprise.
So in other words you are saying Trump is not in control of the armed forces and other dark (Israeli?) powers are running the US armed forces and commanding who to assassinate? With that logic what prevents Israel from striking Iran if that is what they want anyhow? Your appreciation for the commander in chief in honor, but please think again.
Are you really comparing Yugoslavia (1991., 1999.) and the US of that time to Iran (and the US) of 2020?
Nothing changed, nothing new under the Sun?
You need to do the math all over again.
I very much doubt that Trump has Iran wanting to talk, nor that the US has the momentum. You usually make a lot of sense and so does your first paragraph. But the facts don’t support these last two assertions.
1. For Iran to control the situation, it has to send messages to the US and its allies, which will deter escalation, but that is a one-war flow and does not imply “talks” or negotiations. There is no point in getting agreements from “agreement incapable” parties. “Talks” with total liars are equally useless and would only provide a chance for the US to threaten without the world watching, and would probably include personal threats against the individuals on the other side of the table. Very bad deal, so it won’t happen. Iran and each of its allies remain in control of the escalation.
2. The US does not have the initiative or “momentum”, although the US doesn’t need momentum because, as Dr. Hudson said, the goal of the US is just to continue unchanged in its occupation of the oil-producing regions. However, now the Iraqis have the initiative, and have had it since the US murdered 31 Iraqi members of the official PMU, even before the murder of Soleimani, al-Muhandis and 8 other officers. US bases in Iraq might be subject to attacks, and I’d be really surprised if logistics supplying those bases were not slowly cut off. The murders at the Baghdad Airport removed the unwillingness of Iraq’s “government” to end the US occupation, and they might have also woken up Moktada al-Sadr a little bit so he won’t play footsie with the US any more.
It’s shocking how things work out, that the murders of 2.5 million Iraqis over 30 years and the destruction of their infrastructure did not motivate any Iraqi government to throw off the invaders, but that now the murder of 41 more people has turned the tide. There is no reason to be triumphant though, because the vote to expel all foreign troops was only 51.6% of the 329 seats in parliament. We can only hope that Iraq might get a more honest and more nationalist government in the near future.
I hold to my view that they have no intention of leaving. They need control of the oil and the area or their little economic scam and fiefdom comes crashing down.
However, they haven’t started feeling any pain yet. We shall see what happens when everywhere they stay or go they are constantly looking over their shoulders for fear of another deadly attack. We shall know better then.
Not so sure.
Iran put the prerequisites for talks: “Drop all sanctions, and return to the deal. Then we will see which parts can be renegotiated.”
At least from the news on tv tonight, the big story is the downing if the Ukrainian airliner. Just going by what is presented, to the average viewer Iran screwed up big time and shot it down.
So now we’ve got 3 stories with 2 completely different versions of each. First, Soleimani was either on a diplomatic mission or he was planning more attacks on US interests. Second, either there were or were not casualties in Iran’s missile atrack. Thirdly, either Iran *mistakenly?* shot down the airliner or it was a technical problem.
Obviously, all 3 incidents have diametrically opposed versions of events. World opinion was tilted in Iran’s favor regarding the assassination of Soleimani. The Ukrainian airline downing is being used to tilt that opinion away from Iran and project it as, at best, irresponsible. The import of this is in how US allies interpret this and whether they can be counted on by the suddenly alone US as it moves forward in its aggression.
So we had a brief kinetic action and now comes the shaping of the story. I really don’t see one as being more important than the other.
Story number one is the important story. Soleimani was traveling with a diplomatic passport, in a non-combat zone, and not leading any combat activities. Killing him means the US can murder any official anywhere. This jeopardizes all civilians and all governments’ officials anywhere.
The story of his mission for diplomacy makes sense. Saudi Arabia had recently tried to open lines of communication with Iran. Israel and the US were losing control of relationships all over the ME. Russia and Turkey and now Iran were gaining and the US was losing.
The “clean drone shot” was enabled by the General moving so openly. Especially, as events were turning white hot in Iraq, he might otherwise have traveled more guarded. We probably will never know.
But what, how and when the US acted is far more important than the other two stories.
It establishes the policy of assassination of government hierarchy even without a declared war. Done as a hegemonic act of terror (ninja missile tech that shreds the victim).
Proportional response would be feeding a CENTCOM general into a wood chipper.
“Proportional response would be feeding a CENTCOM general into a wood chipper.”
Feet first and very, very slowly.
Except I don’t know the names of any CENTCOM generals.
Soleimani was someone I would recognize. He looked like the early James Bond, or the World’s Most Interesting Man, selling you a Dos Equis beer. I’m not Iranian, but I had seen his picture, and not just on this website.
CENTCOM? … … … I can’t name a single one.
What do we make of this – right NOW, at this moment?
not always a reliable source is what I have heard…Almasdar News.
Powerful blasts rock Syria-Iraq border after warplanes strike Iranian forces
“Several explosions were heard in eastern Syria on Thursday evening as unknown warplanes targeting the Iranian forces in the Al-Mayadeen District of Deir Ezzor.
According to reports, the unknown warplanes heavily bombarded the Iranian forces inside the Al-Mayadeen District, killing and wounding several personnel in the process.
Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen TV claims the attack was carried out by the Israeli Air Force; however, there has been no confirmation from the Syrian military or Ministry of Defense.
No further details have been released at this time.”
Airstrikes Target Popular Mobilization Forces Depot on Syria-Iraq Border – Reports
“Airstrikes targeted trucks and individuals near the Iraqi-Syrian border, including Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in the area, in an early morning airstrike, according to translations from Arabic-language outlet Al Mayadeen, citing tribesmen.
Unconfirmed reports allege the early Friday morning strike was carried out by unidentified aircraft which some have reported may be two F-35Is belonging to the Israeli Air Force.
#BREAKING: Minutes ago, two F-35Is of #Israel Air Force just bombed #IRGC-QF/#PMU base at #Bukamal/ #Abukamal close to #Iraq-#Syria border line. The target was a batch of recently transferred rockets & ballistic missiles as well as engineering equipment. pic.twitter.com/T9WYSoaHEL
— Babak Taghvaee (@BabakTaghvaee) January 9, 2020
Tribal members near the PMF depot told Al Mayadeen that aircraft were seen flying overhead near Deir ez-Zor’s town of Abu Kamal minutes before huge explosions rang throughout the area.
The depot in targeted in the strike appeared to belong to the Kata’ib al-Imam Ali – a militia of the PMF.”
Both Al Masdar and Sputnik are sourcing Al Mayadeen.
So apparently the Israelis still feel that they are exceptional and immune. Iran has demonstrated that it can strike American bases at will, and the Americans dare not strike back – possibly for fear of provoking Iran to attack Israel, the precious family porcelain.
Yet Israel itself dares provoke Iran.
Maybe there does remain something to be made clear.
similar on southfront:
perhaps Israel still needs some “clarification”
If this is valid news, Is(NOT)real is singaling the bitchslap is no as strong as they wanted…
Now….here seems to be an answer….let’s hope it is working this time:
next time I wait longer before I post a link :)
That was the first step, to establish deterrence. The second step is to close the straight of Hormuz until sanctions are lifted and the nuclear deal is reestablished. (or renegotiated as a fig leaf to Trump) The time to do so is right after the markets close on Friday, to give the US some time to come to their senses and “make a deal.” Is the Harry S Truman still in the Persian Gulf? It would be hilarious if an aircraft carrier was essentially taken hostage—what an outrageous waste of money.
Unless it is bombed with full force, Iran will not close the strait of Hormuz because it would hurt China more than the US.
There is no way to hurt the US economically without hurting China, their economies are symbiotic. China’s leadership is craven and shouldn’t factor into Iran’s decision making.
Will finance and insurance close the Straits of Hormuz without sinking a ship?
To close the Straits in the Persian Gulf is extremely easy. Iran just has to declare that it has laid mines in the transit routes that are in its territorial waters. End of shipping as insurance is immediately null and void, and every ship is a minesweeper – ONCE!
But that is an escalation that Iran will reserve for a larger fight.
“I can’t image why US commanders could not announce a incoming missile alert and then get all the local personnel into shelters. Again, I might be missing something, so if any reader can correct me, I would be grateful.”
It looks like this is exactly what happened, at least at the al Assad base. Everyone went into the shelters at 10 pm and only came out at 7 am next morning.
Not known which specific information triggered the response, but that is not so relevant.
The word ‘tectonic’ comes to mind. Allow me to explain…
First of all, many new realities have been firmly and physically established by this unfolding of events.
Iran, and the resistance, have executed a precise and powerful counterattack against the empire, lawfully, openly, and within the international laws of war. All moves were openly declared, and ahead of time, and through all lawful diplomatic channels.
Furthermore, Iran and the resistance axis effectively stood down all regional and international opponents from retaliation and from escalation.
They have also demonstrated modern, sophisticated, and very effective military capability.
They have also (and in one stroke, I might add) physically demonstrated their warning that any military facility in the region which allows an attack against Iran will be targeted and struck (in whatever country).
Even more than that, Iran seems to have been able to maintain stable and (hoefully) friendly relations with Iraq, before, during, and after the strikes on the airbase and consulate which coordinated the attack on Iran (the murders of Iranian and Iraqi Resistance leadership).
The subtleties and reverberations go on, and on, and on…
In this moment, the world is changed.
Amen to that!
The timing for the war is controlled by evangelical and jewish eschatologies. Becoming familiar with cutting edge evangelical eschatolofy is a complete and absolute must for any person seeking to understand Empire moves. The cutting edge of evangelical eschatology has it that on the 23/24 September 2017 the Great Sign of a Women clothed with the sun of Revelation 12 was completed, and that the event was marked by what has been dubbed the Conception Comet. Those standing around Trump praying for him believe the world has entered the 7 year period prophecied as the Great Tribulation.
Great! So now they are going to say: “It’s not us screwing up the world!” “It’s the prophesy, stupid!”
“The cutting edge of evangelical eschatology has it that on the 23/24 September 2017 the Great Sign of a Women clothed with the sun of Revelation 12 was completed, and that the event was marked by what has been dubbed the Conception Comet”.
Marvellous. So now all our lives depend on interpreting a bunch of psychotic fantasies.
“So now all our lives depend on interpreting a bunch of psychotic fantasies.”
No. Understanding events in rich context ( sense making) depends on interpreting how a bunch of people interpreting a bunch of psychotic fantasies will likely impact on real events. It fits within the studies of “Anticipating the future” etc.
‘Eschatological prophecies’ are around for quite some time (centuries!). They are not ‘anticipating the future’ exercises. They are plans for action with timetables. Absolutely all of them plan for a ‘millennium’ run from ‘Zion’.
Interesting and disturbing point. But since few of us have time to investigate this “extra-scatology”, a quick primer or link would be appreciated.
here is a few pointers on US rapture bs eschatology JohnTB; https://duckduckgo.com/?q=evangelical+eschatology+&ia=web
And here is one to Christian eschatology; http://orthodoxeschatology.blogspot.com/
And just bc i find Islamic eschatology interesting, here is one of those to;) http://imranhosein.org/n/articles/#signs_of_the_last_day
I suggest you watch a few off Imran Hosein`s videos to, they are very interesting if you are interested in eschatology.
Thanks for the links, Per. I was attempting (poorly, apparently) to cast mildly humorous aspersions on the Christian Zionist eschatology while inquiring about the “cutting edge” version that Wendy referred to in her post. As an Orthodox Christian, I study the Church’s thoughts on the subject regularly.
Watching Pompeo and other evangelicals is distressing. They are key enablers in much of what is going on from the US side. More traditional forms of Christianity express little to no interest in “enabling” the apocalypse.
we agree and share both faith and interest then☦
it is not always easy to catch nuances in other languages so it might be me that is to literal😩
For ‘traditional forms of Christianity’, Orthodoxy in the first place, the ‘eschaton’ is the Second coming of Christ, the Final Judgement which will be “as the lightning cometh out of the east, and shineth even unto the west; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be”. No millennium, no fight against the ‘Anti-Christ’, or ‘Dajjal’ by the Messia or Mahdi.
All will happen in an instant about which “knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only”. All ‘eschatologies’ (including the Muslim ones) are variants of the Jewish dreams of the thousand years ‘Messianic Kingdom’ with the capital in ‘Zion’, dreams of deluded psychopaths.
” Watch therefore, for you don’t know the day nor the hour in which the Son of Man is coming”.
I thought timing was determined by the date of the Super Bowl.
They’re right. They’re just on the wrong side. LOL.
Brother Blue the Iconoclast
All this to circumvent the fact that Russia and China have completely abandoned Iran. Putin understands the imbalance of power, both globally and in the ME region. He may not yet be able to create balance globally, but he certainly has the power to do so in the Middle East and instead of providing Iran with S-400 missile defense, he’s going around offering it to KSA and Turkey, a NATO member. Do you know that Trump wants more NATO involved in the Middle East? He mentioned it at a presser today.
That would be disastrous for Iran, and it wouldn’t be great for Russia either! Trump executing Soleimani, bringing in Nato, crushing Iran’s economy; he’s trying to destroy Iran. And doesn’t Putin realize that if Iran falls; the AngloZionist Empire controls the entire ME? First they came for Iran…then they came for Russia. What is Putin thinking selling missile defense to those backstabbing SA monarchs and Erdogan?
Russia has abandoned Iran. No matter how brilliantly Iran manages with the deprivation suffered and the military equipment it has, without Russia or China’s help; it’s not a question of IF Iran FALLS; it’s a question of WHEN. So what is Putin thinking? His silence throughout Soleimani’s murder and this whole brink-of-war ordeal is deafening. Trump and his cabal are eviscerating Iran with demonizing lies and smear propaganda and tearing it down every day more under Putin’s nose, and he acts like he doesn’t care.
I just want to add an aside: I wonder if anyone has any ideas on the videos of the two missiles targetting the Ukraine passenger airplane? I just can’t wrap my head around the fact that someone actually captured precise impact in the early morning night sky in Iran. I wish someone could enlighten me with their thoughts on this.
zerohedge.com posted today an entire thread with comments on this subject, certainly in that sea of sewage there is at least a few jewels on the topic.
IMHO it sounds like BS, but who knows; First reports were that they announced a mechanical problem during flight on takeoff, a missile would have meant zero chatter with ground-control & ATC.
Also photo’s show a typical crash in one site, a missile would have scattered stuff all over.
Another thing is the plane just took off, it would have been fully loaded with fuel, thus it would have been a total inferno all black upon impact I didn’t seem much black in the photos posted, typically when the pilot has a few seconds of heads-up on a loss of flight, they dump the fuel, I’m going to assume that’s what happened.
In the case of a missile, there would have been no time to dump the fuel, just a mass junk dropping to the earth
In the case of a crash, it could have lost lift and augered down, or it could have held a high speed to just bounced and fell apart of impact, and stuff would be scattered linearly over a long path, which is how I see the photos’
IMHO the plane was sabotaged by a mossad bomb, that would explain the flash if true, but I don’t its true, just more obfuscation, like they say the first casualty of war is the truth. Destroying Iran airliners is a typical days work of USA & Israel.
First reports on this topic were “Oh so another Boeing 737 fell out of the sky”, which is really true, folks don’t want to admit it but these Boeing planes are just falling apart all over the world. It would be in Boeing’s interest to distribute misinformation all over on this topic, so that nobody assumed Boeing liability.
the plane was a 737 – what more needs to be said ?? Here is Professor Marandi explaining that Iran planes are not getting even proper hardware now because of sanctions, and yes it was a Ukrainian airlines, but this plane was flying Iranian skies and probably not updated like it should be.
RT reported that the ukies said:
*its a 737-800, NOT the MAX. 800 version has good safety record
*its a 2016 model
*just had maintenance check performed on 06jan
Could be mechanical issue, but I’m leaning toward the bomb theory: Mossad planted one or used one of their wahabbi head choppers.
Reports saying the pilot didn’t send distress call. Maybe they used a mini emp to knock out on board electronics/comms at that time?
At this point it’s all speculation regarding the plane. May the families find peace.
Despite all the US “evidence” talk, the Ukrainians, somewhat surprisingly to me, don’t buy it yet! they investigate 4 different scenarios acc. to sputniknews. One of these caught my eye: mid-air colluision/attack with/by a drone!
Now, THAT is an interesting one!
It was dark night, a drone/drones would be virtually invisible to the eye, but visible to the air defence. What if the drone/s even fired at the plane (rounds, not missiles!) or approached/hit it (or several smaller drones?) And what if the vids of SAMs in the air are actually genuine (location and time, wise) , but they took out those drone/s, not the plane!?
There is a Uki website claiming that one of the killed stewardess managed to call home and that she talked about the plane being shot at with “firearms”. I initially dismissed that as complete garbage (no firearm can fire as high as 8k feet), but what if the drone(s) used fire arms like rounds that would appear to the stewardess like firearms fired?
Here is the link to the unconfirmed story. While I can read and somewhat speak Russian, my search capabilities are pretty limited in Russian language sites. maybe others can have look and follow up? Warning: Site has a script pusher on it acc. to Kaspersky (though no virus)
I have read a lot over the past 36 hours about protocol and AA procedures of the Iranians. There is no freaking way that they would just fire at a plane, even if unidentified or suspicious at dark nigth without first scrambling fighter jets to it to take a look at it!
The only other options could be Israel remotely taking over a SAM battery, or a bomb planted in the plane during its last “maintenance”. There are some aviation engineers on twtr discussing that the pictures of the engine hint at corrosion and poor maintenance. Wouldn’t shock me with a Kolomoisky company.
And then there is this video to consider >
On A Wing And A Prayer – by Tim Tate (52.27)
“ just another day’s work for America & Israel to shoot down a commercial airline
I suspect it’s the work of Mossad
It’s so pathetic to read racist and left wing dribble fueled by conspiracy theories .
You guys should all go to the beautiful theocracy of Itran and preach your values . Heaven help you if you are gay or poor or female or have any will to have a say in government. But if you don’t want to move respect your countries values .
China is doing many billions of dollars of deals in Iran. Like always China stays quiet and comes in and does business with the enemies that the empire creates for themselves. They show themselves to be much more of savvy and shrewd operator than the “every problem requires a hammer” empire.
Meanwhile Russia is not a friend of Iran. Iran has known this for many many years now. They work together where it is convenient for both parties but Putin is too compromised by the Zionists and other 5th column interests in his political base to do anything materially to help Iran (which as you correctly point out would ultimately be to Russia’s benefit).
Putin is just as devious and scheming as Erdogan but he is a master politician a great business man and has the benefit of much stronger country and geo political position than the Turk.
Another way of looking at it is that Iran simply doesn’t need any military or political help from China or Russia. If so, it is far better for Iran to stare down the USA all alone. Being defeated by Iran alone is a much greater humiliation for Washington. And China and Russia would be foolish to challenge the USA unless and until they absolutely must. That could lead to a thermonuclear exchange.
All engineers and mathematicians, as well as artists, understand the virtues of simplicity. From Occam’s Razor to St Exupery: “You know you’ve achieved perfection in design, not when you have nothing more to add, but when you have nothing more to take away”.
Leonardo da Vinci, too, explained that “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication”.
The German saying is: ‘In der Beschränkung zeigt sich den Meister’
The Pentagon held a war game in 2002 called Millennium Challenge with the Red team(opfor) representing Iran and the Blue team the US forces….Gen. Paul Van Riper was commander of the Red team and was totally handcuffed by the referee’s. He still defeated the Blue team. Any fool who thinks the US could attack Iran better go and research that war game first. Just might bring them back to their senses.
Regarding the Ukrainian passenger plane, I think that it is very interesting that it came down from a relatively low altitude (less that 10,000 feet). That means that a Western funded terrorist group could have used MANPADS to shoot it down, so Western propagandists could then blame it on Iran. That would also explain the video that is floating around purporting to show the event.
Why were so many Canadians and Ukrainians on the plane? ‘Conspiracy theories’ have quickly surfaced. Remember ‘The Canadian Caper’ (at least the movie ‘Escape from Iran: The Canadian Caper)? The story of the CIA assets (erh, diplomats) absconding in the house of a Canadian diplomat, who organized their extraction on Canadian passports? Ukraine is a conduit to infiltrate ‘assets’ in Iran and probably to extract them from. It is ‘highly likely’ that that was precisely the mission of the Ukrainian plane and the Iranians gave them a lesson.
“That would be disastrous for Iran, and it wouldn’t be great for Russia either! Trump executing Soleimani, bringing in Nato, crushing Iran’s economy…”
How would “bringing in NATO” make any difference? In military terms, the USA is NATO. The other countries are only there to give political camouflage.
Which NATO member other than the USA could do any harm to Iran?
Trump didn’t “execute” Soleimani: he had him murdered. There is a huge difference.
And Iran’s economy may be squeezed, but it certainly won’t be “crushed”. The only country whose economy is being utterly crushed by the US government is, of course, the USA.
Bringing in NATO spreads “responsibilty” onto Europe.
People finance and hardware (As long as bought from US) releases US responsibilities….
Spreads the targets for the axis of resistance and…. fewer US body bags !
” So what is Putin thinking? His silence throughout Soleimani’s murder and this whole brink-of-war ordeal is deafening”.
I don’t know whether you are a paid troll or just ignorant. Perhaps you were misled by the fact that Mr Putin, and the Russian government in general, do not shoot their mouths off all the time just for the pleasure of hearing thei own voices. Nor does Mr Putin continuously tweet his stream of consciousness.
I think you can take it that Washington and London have been left in no doubt about Moscow’s view of the Soleimani murder.
There seems to be a misconception that Russia (and China, for that matter) has to toe Iran’s policies. That there is somehow some moral obligation for Russia, since Russia has some problems with the ‘West’, to be the backer of all ‘anti-Western – ism’, ‘anti-imperialism’ leftoid worldviews, even when ‘colored’ with Islamic dyes. That this is (or rather that it should be) Russia’s policy.
People are slow to realize that Iran is actually a minor player in the ‘Great Game’ played by the geo-political ‘heavies’ on the Eurasian chessboard. As a matter of fact Turkey is a bigger player and Russia correctly assessed the situation. Russia does not want any ‘Islamic revolution’ on the Mullahs, IRG or Muslim Brotherhood mould. Neither does China.
To be sure, Russia won’t permit any ‘neo-Persian’ Empire (neither neo-Ottoman) in their ‘underbelly’. Russia and China won’t permit any Islamic ‘noise’ to ruin the harmony of their emerging ‘symphonia’, the model for the future ‘concert of peoples’ worldwide. Neither would they permit the ‘Anglo-Zios’ either.
You must be joking here buddy. Iran has 50,000 Shia militia’s inside Syria, and more than 200,000 PMU’s loyal to it inside iraq, and you might as well add hundreds of thousands of Yemeni Ansarullah and Hezb units on the Shia cause. China has diddly squat and Mr Putin has 900 troops and 2 dozen aircraft at Khmeim in Latakiya. It’s not up to Russia o China what Iran decides to do in its backyard. You understand buddy?
All this to circumvent the fact that Russia and China have completely abandoned Iran. Putin understands the imbalance of power, both globally and in the ME region. He may not yet be able to create balance globally, but he certainly has the power to do so in the Middle East and instead of providing Iran with S-400 missile defense, he’s going around offering it to KSA and Turkey, a NATO member. Do you know that Trump wants more NATO involved in the Middle East? He mentioned it at a presser today…….
2. Aug. 2018
Iran Just Got s 400 anti aircraft Missile System From Russia …
All this to circumvent the fact that Russia and China have completely abandoned Iran. Putin understands the imbalance of power, both globally and in the ME region. He may not yet be able to create balance globally, but he certainly has the power to do so in the Middle East and instead of providing Iran with S-400 missile defense, he’s going around offering it to KSA and Turkey, a NATO member. Do you know that Trump wants more NATO involved in the Middle East? He mentioned it at a presser today…….
18 APR 2015
Russia to supply S-300s to Iran despite Israel’s objections – deputy defense minister
After watching Trump’s press conference, I’m becoming more convinced that General Amir Ali Hajizadeh’s assessment of the missile strikes is far more accurate than Trump’s. Trump was not his usual bombastic self. You could here the stress in his voice. The faces of the generals behind him were not the faces of confident victors. They were not the faces of military leaders that only loss a few buildings and aircraft. They all appeared to be stunned by what happened. Contrast that with General Amir Ali Hajizadeh‘s demeanor during his briefing.
Not only did Iran give the U.S. a bitter taste of their capabilities, but they also put Trump in the position that he couldn’t admit that they received casualties, as that would force him to respond, or look incredibly weak. Even weaker than he already appears. Iran sent the message that they can strike American targets at will, and there’s not a damn thing you can do about it. You can’t even acknowledge that it happened. Trump had to assume the position of a lying coward. That’s a real slap across the face.
Trump is at the mercy of his Briefings. They have learned how to manipulate him with what he wants or needs to hear.
He trusts any General who wants to “win”.
Whoever convinced him of this drone assassination can “sell” him anything next time.
What stops the US from going totally crazy to war is the known losses they cannot escape.
General Jack Keane, ret., four star bozo from the Institute for the Study of War, on Fox indicated this morning that the bases ringing Iran would suffer enormous loses of men and machines before the US could gain the upper hand over Iran.
As we see with Russia, the Russophobes keep presenting the notion that a first strike against Russia can take out most of Russian counter-strike and it is worth the costs. Now the Iraniphobes led by the Israelis and neocons promulgate the notion that the US can strike and destroy the Tehran regime with little cost. However, enough realists and others afraid of the risks to their careers say use crushing economic sanctions to destroy Iran.
In the middle of all this ‘advice’ is Trump. So long as he isn’t dealt a “battlefield” disaster, he will now go slow with the military stuff and move for diplomatic talks. However, he will not falter for one second to use overwhelming force if challenged. He wants a Trump-Iran deal of his making. In the meanwhile, he will turn the screw and crush the Iranian economy until it collapses. There is no cost to that strategic operation.
You write a compelling argument that really deserves consideration. In many ways, the Saker thinks with his heart, like many of us, perhaps that’s why I we all like him.
But you think with your head, in a cold blooded and very logical way. Although I don’t relish your grim conclusions, they seem far more likely than any others I’ve heard.
One look at the markets today tell us that the world now is convinced that we’re well past the US/Iran crisis, with all the markets rising, while the risk price of oil collapsed to the point that in a week that saw fears rise of another middle eastern war, oil ends the week on the downside. The gold price story is the same.
The reason: The world sees risk evaporating, with no serious blow-back to Trump’s ordered assassination of an Iranian national hero. In fact, the US/Iran crisis is no longer front page new, replaced by the airplane disaster.
If Trump thinks he got away with one, there’s not much reason to think he’ll stop.
@Larchmonter: “There is no cost to that strategic operation”.
Everything has a cost, there is no such thing as a free lunch”. — First Law of Thermodynamics
Strategic costs only differ from tactical costs in being larger and taking more time for consequences to work their inevitable way through multiple nodes of the causal network. — First Law of Karma
“Do not interrupt your opponent when he is making a strategic blunder [like invading Russia or narrowing his financial base]” — Napoleon [whose experience of strategic blunders was extensive and expensive]
„Trump is at the mercy of his Briefings. They have learned how to manipulate him with what he wants or needs to hear. He trusts any General who wants to “win”. Etc.
First, to add to Saker’s list of accomplishments, note this report http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13981020000251 Aerospace Commander: IRGC Cut US MQ-9 Drones’ Communication in Electronic Warfare
TEHRAN (FNA)- Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Aerospace Force Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh disclosed that the communication and dispatch of images by US MQ-9 drones were cut as IRGC’s missile attack was underway on Ain al-Assad military base.
“An operation that we did not disclose anything about it after the IRGC’s missile attacks and was conducted by using special equipment we had prepared in advance was an important electronic warfare operation that started about 15 minutes after missile attack; we brought all drones flying over Ain al-Assad military base out of US troops’ control for some moments and cut their communication and image links which terrified the Americans,” General Hajizadeh said on Thursday, addressing a press conference to elaborate on IRGC missile attacks on the US military base.
He noted that following the IRGC’s missile attacks, the most important need of the Americans was to understand the extent of the losses which were instantly monitored by the cameras of eight MQ-9 drones, and said, “When the aircraft were out of US control their morale was much more lowered than the missile attacks.”
Also refer to https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2053184/press-brief-by-secretary-esper-and-general-milley/source/GovDelivery/ Press Brief by Secretary Esper and General Milley
We can compare this briefing to what we are accustomed to from the Russian MOD, and now to the briefing by General Ali Amir Hajizadeh. I subscribe to the US DoD material, so I have watched Esper for some time: his English is remarkable… for not being English. He gets his verbs wrong, his sentences are such gibberish that he sometimes reminds me of the joke between my wife and myself: don’t listen to what I say, listen to what I mean… and then you’re left guessing. In this briefing Esper and Milley are lying through their teeth, and if there is something they don’ know or which is just too embarrassing, they claim it is sensitive and secret. Particularly hilarious from Esper here is the standard cut-and-paste insertion of his complaint about how difficult it is being SecDef because he is actually supposed to be confronting China, and all these other things keep cropping up, tying his best laid plans up in knots.
Just for laughs, consider the following exchange:
“Q: I’m sorry, a coalition source, non-American, said that because of the joint operations command, which I think there’s still at least two, perhaps Baghdad and Irbil, the Iraqis were given a heads up, therefore very quickly the Americans were given the heads up in that sense. I’m not talking about at the actual bases, in terms of any warning system. Can you discuss that at all, was there verbal heads up given?
GEN. MILLEY: I don’t have any personal knowledge of that.
SEC. ESPER: I know we tried to give them a quick heads up…
GEN. MILLEY: We did, from here.
SEC. ESPER: I can’t — I don’t know about the rest of your statement.”
Seems to me we have two choices here: either both of them are lying or the Pentagon was out of the loop”. Horrifying thought, huh? Or at least interesting. The lying option seems easier, but is it really? Maybe stuff like this can shed light on the gloomy faces. “I know we *tried* to give them a quick heads up…” – what in hell is that, we tried? Two goofies can’t get their stories straight: Milley insists they did give a heads up, but “from *here*”? No, Milley, not “from here” and no, not because of your early warning systems… which are all secret, because they don’t work. – The only way, as far as I can see, that the “lying” option works, is if they are both lying to cover up what they don’t and didn’t know, which loops back to “they were out of the loop”.
But on Trump, his Generals and briefings, I suggest a big question mark. Principle #1: Trump does not trust the IC. Derivative Principle #2: Trump does not trust the DIA. Principle #3: Trump does not trust the Generals. – It’s somewhat OT vis a vi Iran (Esper’s chief of staff resigned the day after the Iranians hit the two Iraki bases), but once the Washington Post and New York Times published the “Afghanistan papers”, Trump instructed his WH staff to set up a gaggle between him and enlisted current and ex-soldiers who had done time in Afghanistan. (This was published, can’t recall exactly where, maybe Task and Purpose.) The order was, “I don’t want officers, no generals.” Over several hours Trump just listened and, according to the write-up, what he heard made the Afghanistan Papers look like child’s ‘play. Then there is also the frontal attack Trump has launched against the military “justice” system. And he still doesn’t like trannies and regendered types in the military.
Brent, I noticed this too about the men behind trump in the speech, the one to the left looked on with frozen expression, and not a happy one. The one to the right looked incredibly anxious, his eyes darting all over the place, like he was expecting something incoming. Trump himself I couldn’t tell that much except he would have a little head and body tilt fairly frequently, a bit child like. Would be interesting to get a body language professional’s assessment.
Whatever, these people, you are right, did not look like they had won, they looked shell shocked and anxious.
I think the US command structure is getting a very unpleasant lesson in “best not to believe your own propaganda”. After decades of “USA! USA!, We are #1!”, they may be coming to realize that yes, the other guys have moved out in front of our capabilities or at least developed strategies we simply have no practical plan for.
The look on the faces of the US dudes is probably the same as when the Donald Cook went dark. Nothing scarier than being in a bad situation, then realizing that you really don’t even know how bad it is.
I made a video of that, if I’m allowed to link to it:
Hi Saker, – your sentence here “… I can’t image why US commanders could not announce a incoming missile alert and then get all the local personnel into shelters. Again, I might be missing something, so if any reader can correct me, I would be grateful….”
is correct according to very early debate on MSM Canadian news radio – the soldiers had good warning system that allowed them 4 minutes to get to cover is what was said the very next day.
I am constantly amazed at Shia ability to find the schwerpunkt and to utilize this leverage to their advantage. It is like watching a small Jiu-Jitsu master taking on a massive heavyweight champion. They are also always full of surprises, in Russian I think they call this maskirovka.
They have a clear and achievable political objective. Since in my mind politics is about power and power is the ability to choose than it is easy to see that they are gaining the initiative in many areas across the ME. They just completed an unthinkable operation against the greatest military in the galaxy on their time table and on their terms. Normally when the initiative is lost the power for meaningful offensive action becomes more and more difficult and that is where the Pentagon finds itself right now. Time is on Iran’s side and they can afford to play rope a dope with their “proxy” forces while the greatest military in the galaxy gets to play wack a mole. Of course this can change quickly just as in Syria when the Russian military entered into that theater.
Ultimately, the U.S. will only leave the ME when the military losses are as great as the loss of the entire U.S. economy. This isn’t Vietnam as the stakes are much higher for the U.S. It is hard for me to predict how this will end but I believe the momentum has continued to shift to the axis of resistance. If the Pentagon doesn’t see this they are deceiving themselves and I don’t think that was what Sun Tzu meant when he wrote all warfare is based on deception.
This is the current leading story on the Guardian site : Tehran crash: plane downed by Iranian missile, western officials believe. “ Some members of the Ukrainian investigative team had been involved in the inquiry into the 2014 shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine by Russian-armed rebels, Danilov added. “We will use all our best practices from investigating the attack on MH17 to find out the truth in the case of the Ukrainian plane in Tehran,”
A photograph is shown of part of a Russian missile found amongst the scattered wreckage by a passing activist.
Personally I find it increasingly difficult to believe any image that is shown to me that has passed through the hands of anybody with an axe to grind.
Here in Taiwan. The big elections news story the other day was candidate Han Kuo-yu suddenly yelling “ta ma de!!” (fuck!!) in the middle of a speech. Not the done thing here at all. As his spin lady pointed out afterwards the expletive popped out just as his face turned away from the cameras but she didn’t point out it had been dubbed on possibly because her gang are trying the same kind of stuff. Seeing a fair bit of it on tv here. An offscreen heckler yells something and the speaker freezes for a couple seconds with a totally nonplussed expression on his face. Something you don’t see from pro politicians. Or is it just me going nuts.
Thanks for the indispensable work. First time commenter having lurked 10 years.
‘Danilov added. “We will use all our best practices from investigating the attack on MH17 to find out the truth in the case of the Ukrainian plane in Tehran…”‘
So we can be quite sure that the official Ukrainian report will be a pack of malicious lies.
Any fiction anyone could create, either as humor or as dark tragedy, is not as powerful as the truth.
In other words, No one could make this up !
Guardian is in lockstep with BBC hating iran and russia plus others….
Never ever expect to get rationale critique there on most crucial matters.
I stopped paying them attention decades ago ….. what they interprete is not really worth repeating ….
Here is better and thats why I guess you are…
Could someone clear something up for us. My husband thinks the vote in Iraq is non binding can any of you clear this up for me.
Thanks for all your work here Saker I have been on the streets protesting and working on a traveling panel to educate americans about what it means to spend over 70% of the discretionary budget on the pentagon.
Your husband is correct.the resolution is nonbinding but it is extremely symbolic and significant turning point.
God bless you and the anti war movement. The US must begin to dismantle the empire they have created and it will only come from pressure internally at this point in time, not from external forces.
I would not say its non-binding. It is binding as it is done through their legal systems… but its only the first step and we would expect ‘accidents’ to happen from here, as clue in by the orange agent already. Furthermore, even if its fully legit and binding, do yo think the invaders will just leave and respect the will of the ppl of Iraq?
Let me give you another example. Pres Moon of S.Korea won the clean election, after busting the previous who was caught in ‘corruption’ among many other things (like treason with USSA), went to the US counterpart and ask them to leave. Well, you expect the usually ‘we are here to stay and you will have to pay even more now, since you dare to ask’. But worse, Pres Moon discover that, USA ‘coerced’ the previous gov and some other general (who then retire comfortably) to sign a 99 year deal to legally ‘occupy’ S.Korea with no exit clause, one day before the prev president (now in prison) just one day before the sentence. There is no legal means or even discussion to ask the invaders to leave. So that leaves the hard option (if one reads correctly) and the US side is saying, they have the hardest stuff.
You can add other thoughts you like to the scenario or speculate what other country has got that kind of ‘freedom’ treatment. You can also ref to Mahdi’s speech recently. This is the same shit they pull in Chi and Rus once before. That’s probably how, the ‘merciful’ CB borrowed that profitable model.
Saker’s analysis here is much much much water down (I would think) for public consumption. The real underbelly of the USSA-ANZ MIC is, not for public consumption, not for [email protected] public anyway, and probably even too dark too inhuman too bloodstained, even for the ‘progressive modern’ history books, if with no adjusted cartooned records. What if it becomes legal and correct to say the last 4-5 orange-agent-type-persons are war criminal and each have their allocated master minds? And the teach that in regular schools worldwide? Imagine that!
“USA ‘coerced’ the previous gov and some other general (who then retire comfortably) to sign a 99 year deal to legally ‘occupy’ S.Korea with no exit clause…”
That sounds like legalistic bullshit to me. Isn’t a fundamental tenet of Western political theory that any people, through its government, has the power to do anything it wants?
It doesn’t really seem as if the US government, which routinely ignores all legal restrictions and obligations from the UN Charter to the US Constitution, and which has recently withdrawn from the JCPOA, could force South Korea to permit a continuing occupation.
Just as in Iraq and Afghanistan and Syria, if the people and their government want the Yanks to go, the Yanks have no real choice but to go.
Tom I wish you were right. I really do.
Yes I have no proof of the 99 year deal is actual and real, as it was, like Mahdi speech, Moon mentioned that once before, then ‘they’ scrub the internet and with hush gag orders (the usual).
But you can find many incidents, both the Japan and S.Korea ppl want and ask the yanks to go… many of them get harassed, those who did not take the money, or even killed, then the yanks paid even more money and the usual, silencing the media.
Answer pls, Tom – what is the purpose of USA having multiple military bases in Asia?
Are they going to label VVP and Xi and Abe and Modi and Merkel and Macron and everyone else ‘terrorist’?
O and let’s not forget who the Iran general was acting as peace agent for – MbS!
Who’s the drone for? next time?
I really wish you are right Tom
but it appears, they are on the hardstuff
and unfortunately like in ME, they think they are winning and they think they can continue to win in perpetuity.
This Iran bitchslap back, among many subtle msg, is game on. The REAL game on (which some here correctly say Rus and Chi has seek to avoid for decades) Another subtle msg of the flags, not only the ME is united, is more dangerous than that, for the US reader who may not understnad the hidden clue, is they are all now FACELESS! That means they can be and are everywhere and they can be anyone! (thanks orange agent kudos)
just to remember that the “gringos” had a 100 years lease for the Guantanamo base in Cuba that expired several years ago. The Cuban are still waiting for the gringos to leave … :(
Here is explanation. Video, 5:15
Iraqi MP: Assassination of PMF Deputy Chief Al-Muhandis Has Angered Iraqis, US MUST Withdraw!
As a data analyst myself, I an safely say that from statistical point of view, the anaysis is sound. I would even add quite conservative. Let me explain myself: You guys considered that all the buildings (pixels) would have the same weight (importance), but actually if we consider that there are buildings the Iranians would not be interested on, or would be less interested in, give they sure have some intelligence on it, if you add such corrections, the effective number of aimed targets is smaller and the conclusion to rule out non-guided missiles gets more far significative.
The plane that fall in Tehran is known to be problematic, it is the same model line of the one that crashed previously in Ethiopia.
Lisbeth, thanks for your contributions both of which make sense from a professional data analyser’s POV: Iranian missiles are commendably accurate under critical military conditions, and Boeing passenger aircraft are alarmingly prone to catastrophic failure under normal flight conditions.
I’m beginning to enjoy the Good Doctor’s comments.
What is missing is a statistical assessment of the chances of a missile fired and aimed at a distant target unintentionally colliding with an airplane taking off at near distance. To me this seems to be less than 0,1%. However, my grades for statistics were poor. Considering that virtually all passengers on the plane were Iranian citizens or overseas Iranians of relatively young age, an intentional collision should be ruled out. Which leaves the Company and Mossad or their proxy terrorists as the most obvious culprits.
Your facts are way off. Less than half of the 169 victims were Iranian citizens.
“Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said the plane was carrying 63 Canadians, 82 Iranians, 11 Ukrainian passengers and crew, 10 Swedes, four Afghans, three Germans and three Britons. However, the final tally of Canadians could change as more information becomes available about those holding dual citizenship, Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said.”
There was speculation that many of the passengers might have been spooks leaving Iran as things got too hot, and that would have been reason for the shoot-down. But I doubt that theory because the Iranians are playing “the long game” and know that all truths will come out eventually, and the immoral killing of innocent people would not benefit them. Also, Iran is keeping score on the civilian victims of shot-down airliners. The US Navy killed 290 people on Iran Air flight 655 back in 1988. Add the 298 victims in the MH-17 shoot-down, and the score is 588-0. Of course the Empire would prefer the score to be 588-169, and it will bend the truth or even break it. For instance, the UK has never released the data from the MH-17 black boxes, 5.5 years later. that’s why Iran is keeping the black boxes, but they welcome the Ukrainian authorities to come, help preserve the “chain of custody” and participate in the investigation.
No one has suggested that one of Iran’s ballistic missiles could have been involved. The doomed airliner never got above 10,000 feet elevation and I’m sure no ballistic missiles would be parked anywhere near the most important civilian airport in Iran. Lastly, Scud-sized missiles are quite large, so if one had collided with a Boeing, the several separate video cameras would have recorded a far different picture.
What I do not understand is why were flights in & out of Iranian airspace not suspended & grounded &/or diverted while this crisis is taking place? That makes me wonder whether Iran did this intentionally. There being Iranians on board does not automatically disqualify this possibility, who were they? Why were they leaving Iran at such a sensitive moment & why via Ukraine? I do not mean any disrespect to the deceased just to be clear, or am looking for a justifying motive, I am wonder how on earth under these circumstances this could have been allowed to happen.
There was a credible explanation posted as a comment to today’s RT story about this.
“Its not that simple. It would have been an unfriendly act to prevent the Pilots request to leave. Even with the problems he wanted to leave expecting the US to destroy all the planes found on the ground. It was even delayed due to being over loaded and had to take on extra fuel. We had many instances where grounded planes were destroyed in other areas.”
Also, given the time frame available for a decision under the duress of wartime conditions these kinds of things do happen.
I am perplexed by the available photo evidence of the airliner’s debris scatter, which is not consistent with a missile hitting the airliner. The absence of cockpit communications with the air traffic control tower is also mysterious.
1. An onboard explosive device, previously placed to implicate Iran as a follow up to the assassination of Soleimani, may have been placed to destroy key communications and navigational electronics onboard the airliner;
2. As the airliner now was flying at low altitude and without an electronics profile, the local IRGC air defences assumed it to be a cruise missile, and because it was in the vicinity of a sensitive military installation then a shoot-down was indicated.
3. There is also the possibility that there was a perceived threat before the onboard fire, and that counter electronic warfare steps were taken to scramble the airliner’s electronics.
All this is speculative at this time, of course, but the circustances leading up to the IRGC’s anti-air defenses allegedly being used are still mysterious. There will have been a lot of behind-closed-doors discussions, politics and deal making by everyone with a stake in this and we will will probably never, ever be made aware of these things.
I would like a more detailed explanation about the accuracy of Iranian missiles, if Saker or someone could offer. I do not understand enough (or much) about these things.
If Iranians aimed at single buildings, then it is something like +- 25 meters This could be the case, but I am not sure. If Iranians aimed at the whole base, it is something like +-250 meters.
Which one is the case, can it be discerned from the target area photos?
Thanks in advance,
Let me add my thoughts on the target statistics.
Targeting the base as a whole with three missiles of little target accuracy, say +- 250m, would result in random impacts within the base or within a circle of 250m radius, whichever is smaller. The odds of hitting buildings three times would then simply be Pr*Pr*Pr, with Pr = (building area)/(minimum of the area of the base or the circle). With Pr ~ 1/6 the odds of just hitting three times any building is about 0.5%, that is very unlikely.
If Iran wanted to show the US that they can hit targets precisely, I surmise that it must be nearly certain that at least two missiles hit. That means 3*Pr*Pr*(1-Pr) + Pr*Pr*Pr > 90% (missiles 1+2, 1+3, 2+3 or all three hit). That would require Pr > 80% and a target accuracy better than ~100m.
Targeting the centers of large building areas would maximize the odds that unguided missiles hit. Looking at the impacts, only the lower-left impact would seem typical for a lucky shot, but even this impact lies at the periphery of building zones but quite central within the destroyed building itself. Therefore, in my opinion, the missiles’ target accuracy was better than the area of each of the destroyed buildings.
Rumors have it that one of the buildings was the command&control center for drones. If we would know the functions of the destroyed buildings, I guess we could all agree not only on a precision strike but on Iran’s excellent knowledge of the base’s organization, which would explain the dumbstruck faces of the US commanders.
In Trump’s morning after speech he seemed very stressed, especially at the beginning. I would even go so far as to say it sounds like someone who has been spooked.
Would be interesting to hear from body language, voice stress specialists if this is correct.
Oh, I think I am getting it slowly. If the accuracy were in the +-250 m range, some of the three missiles would have hit the large empty spaces.
Thank you, no need for an additional explanation :)
Brilliant assessment Saker. Thank you.
The zionazi-gays are going full on gay now.
Canada’s Trudeau claims ‘intel from multiple sources’ points at Iran shooting down Ukrainian Boeing over Tehran
“Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has come out”
It’s been rather obvious for a long time…
“We have intelligence from multiple sources,” Trudeau said on Thursday. “The intelligence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile. This may well have been unintentional.”
His comments echo those of US President Donald Trump, who said earlier in the day he had “suspicions” that “somebody could have made a mistake,” without elaborating.”
The israeli trump toy has yet to come out, though…
“US media outlets have been citing anonymous officials as saying that the Boeing 737 was “highly likely” brought down by Iranian air defenses early on Wednesday.”
‘Psychological warfare’: Iran dares Canada & others to show ‘intelligence’ they used to accuse Tehran of downing Ukrainian jet
“All these reports are a psychological warfare against Iran,” government spokesman Ali Rabiei said on Thursday. “All those countries whose citizens were aboard the plane can send representatives and we urge Boeing to send its representative to join the process of investigating the black box.”
Foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi has meanwhile called on Canadian PM Justin Trudeau to share the intelligence he has claimed to have from “multiple sources” that the plane was shot down by a surface-to-air missile.
“We are calling on the Canadian Prime Minister and any other government that has information about the crash to hand it over to the investigation committee in Iran.”
Iran has welcomed all countries who lost citizens in the crash, as well as Boeing representatives, to take part in the investigation, and even stated it might enlist the help of French or Canadian experts to decode the data in the black boxes recovered from the wreckage, with the results being “published and publicized to the world.” However, it has flatly refused to hand the boxes over to the US, slamming the “illogical” rumors implicating Tehran in the wreck.”
Malic has some interesting things to say…
Secret intelligence & ‘highly likelys’: How media created narrative around Tehran jet crash to blame Iran, Russia and Trump
“It was textbook “citogenesis” at work, the manufacturing of a narrative through circular reporting and reliance on published assertions as proof.
Yet just the day before, Reuters had been reporting something completely different, citing an anonymous “Canadian security source.”
“The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that the plane was not brought down by a missile. There is no evidence to suggest that,” said the source, adding that a “technical malfunction” was the likely culprit. Iranian civil aviation authorities likewise said that no missile debris was found at the crash site, and that rumors of a missile were “illogical” and “scientifically impossible.”
Instead of being skeptical of anonymously sourced claims by intelligence agencies – which have a stellar record of being wrong on major issues, from the Douma “chemical attack” and Iraqi “weapons of mass destruction” to the whole sordid ‘Russiagate’ mess – mainstream media outlets in the West happily ran with the “Iran shoots down airliner” angle. Some went even farther, adding that a “Russian missile” was involved.”
Hey, the goys bought the MH17 nonsense we fed them, lets simply adapt that op to fit this airliner accident. Which is how most israeloamerican policies and ops work, including their psywar.
Canadian Intelligence…isn’t that an oxymoron?
I suppose nearly all Canadians will believe their Pedophile PM when he’s waving the flag. Canadians are just as brainwashed and ignorant as Americans. In normal circumstances the majority here having nothing but contempt for Trudeau.
Many are, including those who can’t stand Justin the apostate. Some don’t believe it including this Canadian. Trudeau is a total puppet and his name and intelligence should not occur in the same sentence. What else can one conclude from a ‘leader’ who says ‘we don’t recommend the term mankind, but people kind?’
“The US quite clearly took the decision not to retaliate and to “forget” Trump’s promise to strike at 54 Iranian targets.”
Trump Warns of US Attack Against 52 Iranian Targets If Tehran Strikes US Citizens, Assets
“….targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) 4 January 2020”
I am not a specialist in military intelligence, but I think maybe there might be another element to think about.
What if the Suadite Arabia movement were real in agreeing with Iran and the US did not approve the meeting? Everybody realizes that the Empire is weakened, Saudi Arabia has already considered the idea of buying Russia’s S400, suffered a severe blow to its oil production, its involvement with ISIS in Syria was a failure.
And if she tried to approach Iran, it would seriously damage the US position in the Middle East, the Muslim world and its petrodollars. Soleimani’s death would be a direct message to both sides, both for Saudi Arabia that would take a step against American will and when for Iran. And that explains perhaps the blackout the US government had after the death of Solemani, and after the missile attack, it seems that now returning to their usual show wanting to incriminate the plane crash to the Iranian government …
And it seems to me that Iranian and Allied troops from Iran that are stationed outside the country will suffer continual US bombers. If in the past when Iran suffered the first bombers by Israel in Syria had an answer, I believe the US would not have the courage to attack Iran’s most important military figure. Although the current Iranian response is very clever, I believe the US continued to punish the country by all means possible on the threshold of a major conflict.
Sorry for the bad English, the text was handled by the translator …
You raise a very good point about the possible rapprochement between one leg of the AZ triad in the ME, KSA (US and Israel being the other two) and Iran.
Moqtada al-Sadr also mentioned this when he lamented Gen Soleimani’s murder. While attention on the murder has mainly focused on Soleimani’s role in organising the Resistance, it’s not in inconceivable that being Iran’s emissary could have been the real reason for the strike — they couldn’t very well hit the other emissary, Iraq’s PM. A rapprochement between Wahhabis and Shia will upset the present arrangement greatly. In fact it would turn the whole ME upside down. Now the Saudis would think twice not just about making such a move but even about thinking about making such a move.
In the meantime it’s business as usual: back to the proxy war between US-Israel and Iran.
Who are the Wagner Group. First i’ve heard of them today. Are the a private Russian military organization; ie: mercenaries?
Yes. Or “contractors” as the MSM has relabelled them when the mercenaries are working for the US/NATO. Sounds like someone who comes to fix the plumbing your house instead of someone who comes to kill you, which is the whole idea.
This might sound a bit far fetched, but history rhymes and karma certainly does. Since the USandA today is the cultural (and to some degree legal) successor of Rome, while Iran the successor of the Parthian empire: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Carrhae
Same thing here, the Romans were suffering their worst defeat ever by myriads of arrows from the distant. If one considers today’s Iran’s focus on missiles in their defense, I find it striking how many similarities there are.
Even Crassus might be personified by Trump quite well. Same theater play, different staging.
Just a quick question as the assessment of Iranian missile accuracy: Wouldn’t we need to know if specific coordinates were inputted into each of the missile guidance systems and if so, how close each missile came to hitting those coordinates…the “circular error”? Or, are we dealing with terminal guidance tech that uses onboard cameras feeding imagery to imagery analysis algorithms in the onboard guidance system coupled with some type of aerodynamic or perhaps reaction control system to enable terminal phase steering to hit buildings…i.e. these were not purely ballistic missiles? Does the video footage from the attacks indicate any capability of that sort, or were these purely ballistic missiles? Does anyone now have that kind of tech on ballistic missiles? If purely ballistic, then we’re back to question one…coordinates and accuracy in striking them…Was each missile that hit a building specifically targeted at that building, or perhaps just at clusters of buildings or coordinates distributed within the areas containing buildings? The question is then: How many missiles of this type would it take for the Iranians to be sure to hit a specific set of coordinates within the lethal/destructive radius of the warhead? Could they “surgically” strike targets with this missile tech or will they need to use drones with active final phase guidance to do that, like the drones used by the Houthis in their attack on the KSA refinery? Don’t drones like that require someone to be on the ground within video link and control range?
Avianthro, that’s not a quick quick question; this is a quick question (with a quick answer):
Rolls Royce Customer: How much power under the bonnet?
Rolls Royce Salesman: Enough.
I believe, the good docter really is on a roll today.
Finally, some light touches to liven the mood.
Some comments from England’s first and last colony, if I may…
Soleimani was travelling to parley with the Iraqis and others ostensibly at America’s behest. The Americans assassinated him in brutally explicit fashion. That upends hundreds of years of carefully crafted diplomatic protocol, but more importantly exposes the Mafia-esque nature of the Trump regime. The biggest rogue state is the USA, Iran and North Korea are models of diplomatic nicety by comparison. We have a country armed with nuclear weapons in the thrall of religious maniacs and controlled furthermore by another country run by a corrupt oligarch. I’m not talking about Iran, and I’ll leave you to fill in the blanks. It shouldn’t take long.
The Iranian military launched an attack on several US bases and fastidiously took out the buildings on those bases they were interested in. Very accurately. They did this using apparently middle grade missiles from their arsenal, not their most destructive or advanced ones. A place name for you. Dien Bien Phu.
The Americans are scattered in camps all over Iraq with insecure supply lines, not a good position to be in when your putative adversary has weapons as good or better than your own readily at hand.
Trumps statement was most interesting. Not what he said but how he said it. Gone was his usual braggadocio and the faces of the joint chiefs behind him were a picture. Mouths clamped shut but their eyes spoke volumes. I think a lot of recalculation had been going on in the previous few hours. This was Trump’s Suez moment, the question now being does the American empire go with a bang or a whimper. Gibbon lays it all out for them if they feel in need of a template.
“There are two basic ways to respond to an attack: denial and punishment”.
For a moment I thought you meant “denial” in the political, rather than military, sense. As in “The USA denies that any missiles hit its bases”.
What about electronic Warfare? Although the precision of Irans missiles is impressive their full war potential is not only determined by number and precision, but also their robustness against countermeasures. I can not precisely estimate the US ability to jam or interfere with the guidance systems of Irans missiles, but we have to assume that the US due to their full-spectrum-dominance strategy have considerable abilities here.
Also the US ability to learn from errors and losses should not be underestimated. They have the intellectual, technological and industrial resources to assess both their own cruise missile strike on Syria and Irans strikes on Iraq and to develop, produce and field the military means necessary to keep an upper hand in military strength.
So although the Iran might have shown a surprising strong capability in terms of missiles, the question is if this ability can prevail against current and future US countermeasures.
i am not so sure the US have that ability tbh, see their patriot in action in vid above deedl…
We can only guess, but that’s probably good enough. Here’s my take on it:
1. Iran fully intended to not kill Americans in attacking their base. If “Trump’s head is not worth one of Soleimani’s shoes,” as they put it, then killing a few low lever soldiers is even more not worth it. Iran’s message was the danger posed by very accurate modernized missiles.
2. to avoid US casualties, Iran would have given warning to the American military. I’ve heard two hours and someone said the US radar would have given 4 minutes. Well, 4 minutes isn’t enough time, even if you could believe the nonsense that a radar warning would be instantly communicated to all the bases. However, two hours seems like an excessive amount of time, so maybe a 30 minute warning, or else the Iranians were supremely confident their missiles could not be shot down. There is a small liklihood that this may have been Kabuki, that the Americans did not want to stop or jam incoming Iranian missiles, either knowing such a defense might fail with embarasing results, or because letting the Iranians show off their missiles would end the escalation.
Electronic warfare is always an attempt to surprise the enemy, and it’s all kept in the dark. Any technician can work out the basics of radar and jamming, but the devil is in the details. And once in a while there is a real breakthrough, such as when some clever Ukrainians figured out that you don’t need no steenken radar transmitters because you can use all those cell-phone tower transmitters instead. And the buzzing of the USS Donald Cook in the Black Sea showed the Russians have a few cards up their sleeve, too. Fun times, except it’s a big waste of money that could have been spent on crying needs.
Keep in mind this is “sand in the eyes” as the Arabs say, to blind “citizens of the democracies”. All the so-called “stealth” planes are quite visible to the longer waves of old-style VHF radar. But if the public had been made aware of that laughable truth, it might have prevented the dumping of billions of US dollars into the MIC’s profitable new aircraft. So really, the joke is on us, and I’m not grinning.
Now what I would like to know is how we can exclude that these Iranian missiles did not have any sort of terminal guidance. Saker said that’s excluded, but what is his technical argument ?
“They have the intellectual, technological and industrial resources to assess both their own cruise missile strike on Syria and Iran’s strikes on Iraq and to develop, produce and field the military means necessary to keep an upper hand in military strength.”
This is a myth, self deception and delusional thinking on part of USA and Canada. They used to have all those resources, some 30-40 years ago, not now. People have retired or died since then. You can trust me on this, I have two sons on most prestigious universities in USA/Canada so I see directly what they learn. Mathematics on Harvard and U.O.T is on the level of non-technical high schools of former eastern European (Warsaw pact).
By the way, the best of imported brains in North America, are not from China or India. They are from Iran….
In order to “to develop, produce and field the military means necessary to keep an upper hand in military strength” one needs not only researchers and professors, but engineers, technologists, foreman and skilled workers, in sufficient numbers to do anything serious. Those numbers for mentioned professions are just not there these days. Not even factories exist to produce what could perhaps be invented, developed and improved. For example, no factory in USA produces cloth for military tents, they import that from China, the whole tents.
As for sophisticated electronic devices, bummer again. They switched to transistors in 70’s then to digital later on. Analog electronics is barely studied at North American schools. Why is this important? Because digital stuff can be jammed and disabled much easier than analog. I have not seen Russian or Iranian systems from inside, but I know enough of principles to conclude that theirs are not digital and fancy, but sturdy and jamming resistant to much higher degree than USA equivalents.
I have been reviewing what schools teach and how much kids learn on elementary and high school level, for about 25 years. Test results, mathematics, from 1995 were horrible, with no improvement after 25 years. No surprise there, kids who wrote test in 1995 are now teachers. If you do not learn anything, you cannot teach anything. Sounds reasonable to me.
It is true that the government driven technology sector (space, military) has lost its edge in the US. The ability to innovate moved towards the civilian sector, where companies like google, apple and tesla still lead the world in data, communication and electronics. Those are the fields of technology necessary for modern warfare. As soon as the US military industrial complex taps into that resource they will be again a technological force to reckon with. They already did that by having space X as the company with the lowest launching cost, which will provide the vehicles to launch the means for their newly founded space force into orbit.
Is this related to the Iranian strike or is it a separate development?
There is too little time (few minutes) for US early warning to detect and confirm trajectory, notify potential targets and for personnel in those bases to run away to shelters. Also, if Iran did notify Swiss embassy and Iraqi PM hour before hand, they most certainly passed that info down the line already.
Also, for range in question (300+ km) to achieve that precision missiles most certainly needed to have mid course correction (most likely GPS/GLONASS). Unguided artillery shells at 5 times smaller ranges have 10-20m precision in most ideal weather conditions.
> First, here is a photo of the base following the strikes sent to me by a friend
That is a wrong calculation. Yeah, spectacular and useful in online troll wars, but not very substantiated.
Like old joke goes – nuclear bombs are always precisely guided to their epicenters.
The evidence is almost circular: the missile hit where it his, so it was aimed to where it hit, so it was perfectly aimed to were it ended at.
It assumes that red buildings were target and nothing else, without explicitly making the claim and then proving it.
While that is well likely, it is not the fundamental fact. So can hardly be used to base *evidence* at.
For example, those all other “green” building, is it a fact that none of those could had been the target?
We may *start* arguing that it is because red buildings are mostly smaller than green ones, so if the miss happen it would probably go from small buildings to larger ones not the other way around. But this was NOT claimed.
And in the top middle the red building is not even the smallest one. How do we know it was not a miss, actually?
Then the very 2D top-down projection. Calculating square area is good for the WW2 like gravity bombs falling top down almost vertically. Can we be sure that Iranian missiles flew close to vertically? Especially if we assume those were guided?
If we stop assuming (without explicitly claiming) the vertical direction of missile strikes, then 3D properties, the height of the buildings, became no less important than their 2D area. For example for cruise missiles flying flat height would even be more important than area. And height was totally ignored there.
So, while the picture looks very impressive, and again rather handy for online holywars, the resulting “shocking” 99,38% is moot number.
Both sides claimed moral victory, averting further bloodshed. Next moves?
The west, thinking they got away with murder, will spin this story away within days. They will reinforce their troops & materiel in the region ready for their next atrocity.
Iran cannot let this go & cannot afford to allow the hegemony to consolidate. The pressure must be kept on, alliances strengthened, they must remain in the forefront of Western minds (& media).
Iraq’s PMU has declared they will respond at least as forcefully. I am not confident that destruction of more empty buildings will make any impression the 2nd time, so either they’ll have to spill american blood, or act asymmetrically. Cutting off electricity, water, personnel & communications come to mind – although the bases are probably autonomous they will feel the isolation. Especially if they need to leave the base to conduct any business /diplomacy.
Judging by the tiny “craters” these seem to be dummy non-explosive warheads. For example, one landed on a particular tent in a row of four tents without even blowing over the other three tents, although the two closest ones were shredded a bit. Even a couple of sticks of dynamite would have done more damage. A medium range missile should make a crater 50 – 100 feet across, and knock down everything nearby like a German WW II V2 rocket which would take out an entire city block.
” I can’t image why US commanders could not announce a incoming missile alert and then get all the local personnel into shelters. Again, I might be missing something, so if any reader can correct me, I would be grateful.”
I’m an industrial engineer, and we handle pretty nasty stuff. Highly explosive, corrosive or toxic. When due to a malfunction a leakage occurs you don’t want to be around. It happens seldom, but a complete evacuation to a safe place (which we practice regularly) takes in practice some 5-10 minutes. So, I have some doubts about the casualties unless the best military in the galaxy made some major mistakes.
Let me ask a more nasty question: does anybody care?
The US Army is very closed about casualties. There was an argument recently by Larchmonter 445, that the public opinion would switch when the body bags would be flying in. Of course that is true. I’m wondering now, how long it would take before *the public* would notice that.
Let me give an odd example. Once I was responsible for a large warehouse. We had two seriousn incidents with forklifttrucks in a short time interval (without anyone hurt, luckily). It struck me that the lighting was not complete there, which is located quite high. I sent one of my men out to investigate the amount of light tubes, and how many of them were malfunctioning. That appeared to be about 30%! Until that time we didn’t even notice.
I grew up in a time that we really trusted the telly news and the newspapers. That time is over for me, we live in internet times. One could argue, that we get better informed. Unfortunately, I get the idea that we are less informed or simply don’t care (See also the forelast article of Ramin about this).
We have less homogeneous societies, people are walking like zombies with their noses in their smartphones, so busy with their social media, and people are less and less simply talking to each other.
So, there may be tenthousands of casualties, the MSM will simply deny it (just read the book ‘Gekaufte Journalisten’ by the late Udo Ulfkotte), and the public hangs with their noses in their smartphones, looking for Instagram updates.
I’m wondering how long it will take before it will eventually sink in for the public. We don’t live in times of the Vietnam war anymore. Maybe I’m dead wrong (actually I hope so), but that it what I think now.
I am as suspicious of events as your well written comment…. way too many questions which on our level and position can t be answered. The saker nonetheless writes so well he tops my list of analysts with Moonofalabama plus others.
Today Populations in general suffer from information over load and most of that information is crap drivel and pretentious.
Most walk around glued to their “mobile social networks – plural networks – and crash into you on the street or car.
Populations do not know how to chill and relax away from this digital addiction. Yes I generalise about current populations but the 60s 70s vietnam war via TV brought violence into the living room and impacted directly promoting strong reactions from viewers.
Today we are so incredibly distracted (By deliberate design ….) we dont notice the body bags flown in during the dead of nite. Media are better controlled ….. and if one does notice and raises questions …. well ! we are guilty of spreading conspiracy theory s or hate speech ….
Biggest change in strategic balance in last week are due to 2 factors IMO:
– Iran proved has technology for accurate enough attacks with their ballistic rockets
– Anti US/Israel forces in ME proved they can unify, work together and back up Iran
Hard facts are that, except to Israel and their advanced anti missile defenses, *all* other US/Gulf state infrastructure in area is undefended or insufficiently defended. Patriot missiles are not good enough, and anything else they have is useless, except for US Navy AA assets which are sitting ducks in Gulf. US is doctrinally and technologically completely unequipped to function with its airbases in range of enemy fire, it has no efficient ground anti air defenses as it always assumed, trained and only know to function with its rear and supply lines in “safe rear”.
And all US assets in Syria and Iraq will be treated as disposable if fighting starts, as they are completely undefended and surrounded.
And all this is before we even add cruise missiles to the mix. They can come from any direction (south too from Houthis) and below radar ranges so US Navy ships sitting in their “secure” ports at south coast would get very paranoid after they get attacked from friendly direction.
Israel has “bad luck” to be in the neighborhood of Leban’s Hezbollah which has enough short & medium range rockets to saturate and completely negate Israel’s anti missile defenses, so Israel is more or less in same position as the rest of its alies in the area.
Bottom line: bullies, for the first time, can get their nose bloodied. What will they do?
I am sure that the Iranians have at least a few dozen nukes ready to be assembled and mounted on precision missiles to act as surprise should the Israelis and US use nukes.
US had shown that it will use nukes against those without nukes.
How do you know that the buildings in red were the ones being aimed at?
Talking about ‘response’, ‘retaliation’ and stuff like that, may I add a most ridiculous request to Iran by the Commander in Tweet of the greatest miltary in the galaxy:
Elijah J. Magnier:
#US asked #Iran, according to sources in #Tehran, to limit its response to the assassination of Brigadier General #QassemSoleimani to a “similar response”.
This means when confirmed, @realDonaldTrump is offering to Iran the life of a US four-star general.
This must give nice discussions at the coffee vending machines in the Pentagon, and real trust towards the White House.
Unless some obvious compelling evidence of a missile hit is found on the aircraft structure pieces such as numerous inward bent holes of similar size from the pellets showered out by a missile warhead it may take quite some time to determine the cause, especially as it occurred at night. Since you are usually dealing with wreckage ripped to shreds investigations may take months or even years to determine that a particular wire started a fire or a broken lubricant tube dripped oil onto a critical area of the engine and caused it to explode, or never actually determine the cause at all beyond an educated guess.
In the case of a missile there would be clear evidence of hits on the skin of the wing and fuselage pieces so with an international team working on it that should be determined within a week or so. It would not be surprising if the crew of an anti-aircraft battery, on high alert expecting a retaliatory strike by US stealth drones or cruise missiles, did in fact shoot at what they suspected to be an attacking aircraft. With cruise missiles moving at high subsonic speeds they have only a few seconds to decide or the defence radar could be in automatic “detect and shoot” mode. In that case the Iranian government would know about it within hours as they would check with all their air defence groups in the area to see if any of them had shot down the plane.
One obvious question is: why was this flight departing in the dark during a period of high alert with all the anti-aircraft defences around Tehran on a hair-trigger? Why did the Tehran air traffic control give the OK to take off, and why did the Ukrainian crew agree to it? Did they have their navigation lights and strobe on? Not that that shows up on an air defence radar screen anyway, although the transponder might depending on the sophistication of the radar in question.
If in fact it was an Iranian air defence missile it seems improbable that Iran would deny it and then invite investigators from all the countries with citizens aboard the plane, and from Boeing, to come and assist in the investigation as any such lie would be quickly exposed. So I kind of doubt it was a missile.
But we will know soon. If not a missile, then as mentioned it could take a long time to determine the cause if it isn’t immediately evident from the Flight Data Recorder or Cockpit Voice Recorder which the imbeciles on MSM news insist on calling “Black Boxes” although they are bright orange. To this day, by the way, the British, who have possession of Malaysian Airlines MH-17’s FDR and CVR, still refuse to release a transcript of them just as the US refuses to provide the satellite and radar data it claims to have of the MH-17 shootdown over eastern Ukraine. If they confirm the Dutch claim that a “Russian BUK missile” brought down MH-17, why so coy about releasing the data to prove it?
A slow flying commercial airliner flying from a commercial airport just departing from the airport and with transponder on (this would have to be verified, but I see no reason for it to have been off*) shouldn’t even begin to register with anyone as a military target.
*Unless foul play.
Here’s the flight path this flight took (slightly different its last flight, but perhaps because it was delayed, don’t know):
This link was provided from this thread:
We ought to KNOW that the US helps fund the MEK terrorists. And the US also helps fund Ukraine’s neo-Nazi terrorists. I speculated that it was entirely possible to have the pieces of a bomb on the plane coming to Iran and then the MEK assembles it and sets it “in motion.” This would have had to have been the next story in the propaganda campaign, but Iran’s missile attack kind of sidelined this as, what likely was, Iran’s retaliation. Keep in mind that all the “sheep” have been programmed to be terrified of exploding and crashing commercial airplanes: societies tend to hold together based on what the “middle class” believes- they’ provide the buffer for the elites/rulers.
Hopefully they check for signs of damage in the turbo fan blades. At least one (supposed) picture of the other engine in this case showed inward bent blades in the engine It would be completely possible to place a small bomb inside the engine cowling, which I would not certainly count out of the picture, it being, you know, an Ukrainian plane and all. Kiev is a playground for western intelligence agencies. Inward out explosion marks should be recognizable.
We clearly see the plane was burning, and slowly descending to the ground on the official video. It didn’t look like a disintegration in the air. Damage in the engine will damage the avionics as well. Normally the cowling is designed to protect the avionics stuff, in this case it is clear avionics were gone or it could’ve still be able to fly.
In case of missile, due to the plane being so slow, it is almost certain that there would be missile debris to be found.
Why no one is talking about the role played by Wahabis’ Kingdom in the killing of Suleimani? Why it seems (to me) everyone is buying that version about Suleimani going to Iraq to discuss some offer about peace from one of their most rabid enemies? Can someone believe even for a second that the takfiri in chief were willing to talk peace with Iran? Did Suleimani being the almost unmatched strategist he was, didn’t seen it coming even more when just a few weeks ago Iranians foiled another zionist antempted assassination against him? Didn’t Suleimani knew that going into Iraq where zionists’ cannon fodder still rules would be nothing short than another colossal mistake taking into account that the main characteristic of US behavior is to not give a damn about any rule much less those having to do with diplomacy? Maybe Iraq’s PM believed in the Saudi scam, but… did the Persians really let this mistake of almost colossal proportions pass without notice? This really doesn’t add up. The silence about this (mostly from the Iranians) means nothing good, maybe they took the bait because their most wet dream is perhaps achieving some sort of gentlemans agreement with the Saudis that could lead to diminished US influence in the region, but I’m quite sure that now they already got right what’s the Saudis share on Suleimani’s assassination and nothing good (for the Saudis) is breeding in Theran (I really hope so). Being one of the biggest kind of idiots (the Saudis) in the whole Galaxy they are, it wouldn’t surprised me that much sooner than later ending listening something about the beheader in chief having his ‘brains’ running down his closet golden wall. Let’s pray for it.
Well it’s possible that the Saudis set Soleimani and Adil Mahdi up. Possible but not probable. Adil is not stupid. He’d sized things up and if he concludes that KSA played him out, KSA would be in a deep hole. The Saudis won’t take that risk.
On the other hand, the Wahhabis have several good reasons to start talking to Iran. For one there’s been a shift in Saudi thinking. The Wahhabi king had visited Russia about two years ago IIRC to talk to Putin but more than that they made a deal for RF to sell S-400 (among other weapons) to KSA. Weapons are of course the Saudis’s favourite toys apart from fast cars and yachts. Now buying S-400 is not like buying a super yacht. The difference being, if the yacht doesn’t work properly, you’ll be adrift in the water but if S-400 cocks up at a crucial moment, you may well be dead. So there is a great deal of trust involved, much more than one would put in a yacht salesman — trust that RF sells you the real deal, trains your radar operators and gunners properly, provides timely support on maintenance, spares, etc.
Iran has influence with the Houthis. KSA’s Aramco has just sold some shares for USD 25 billion. Lots of Saudis bought those shares. What would happen to the stock price if the Houthis decided to launch another attack on Aramco facilities?
Qatar, a somewhat recalcitrant little but rich Gulf brethren, is friends with Iran, so much so that Iran supported Qatar in its spat with KSA. KSA now wants the relationship to be a threesome, a ménage a trois if you will, the idea being that Qatar won’t be the sole Iranian darling in the GCC area. This will make it easier for KSA to bring Qatar to heel.
My comments and responding to some of Larchmonter’s comments (usually I agree with him but this time we have a somewhat different perspective).
Let’s take it from what has actually happened since the missiles flew, and specifically to the statement that the situation is ‘Advantage, Trump’.
– ‘more sanctions’ against Iran – this can be overcome with the world moving to a less dollarized status and this is happening. Iran will follow the way of Russia, where sanctions were and are still the impetus for growth in internal production to the benefit of Russia.
– Iran still ‘owns’ the critical waterways.
– China came out with a muted warning that they have interests in both Iraq and Iran with no intention to abandon these, and their oil and gas travel through those waterways and all parties should start being very careful around their interests.
– The UNSC yesterday, under chairmanship of Vietnam, first open debate of the year, discussed “Maintenance of International Peace and Security” (OK, it was a little sickening, but nevertheless.)
– Russia has announced that they are now monitoring the ME with their satellites – in other words, they are taking names of the movements there.
So, we have Russia in fact the first country to thrive despite sanctions,
Iran the first country to actually shoot back since WWII – successfully shot back
let us not forget Syria, beginning to thrive
sanctions breaking now a fine art
unity among the resistance countries – if this continues, it is huge
Turkey saying they will close Incerlik airbase to the US forces – they cannot retaliate from there
China, perhaps the ‘man behind the curtain here’ is doing deals in Iraq and this denies the US space for dealing on oil.
I watch most of Trump’s big speeches, and with his 9 minute speech it was very noticeable that his trademark energy in front of a crowd was just missing. The man looked terrible and sounded to me as if he had trouble breathing in terms of the cadence of his sentences. I don’t think energetically he could sustain a longer speech. Since then, there was a meeting with I think they call it the gang of 8, where Pompeo, Esper, Haspel and Milley (note 2 CIA Pompeo and Haspel) gave report back to the Senators. Most of them walked out of there disgusted – R and D’s alike and said they don’t buy the story of imminent action from Gen Suleimani and disgusted about the dictatorial way they were treated in this briefing.
The main tell from the speech for me, was Trump asking NATO for more, uhm, shall we call it interference and Stoltenberg like a sheep, agreed. The man with the biggest and bestest and most expensive military in the world is asking NATO for more help. With the UNSC (Russia, China) denying the US the readout of their sanctimonious statement that embassies should be inviolate, the day before Trump’s speech, this is a big change.
The most ‘telling’ for me was the legacy media. Just after Trump’s speech, this issue disappeared from above the fold – most noticeably from Fox News. The next morning all the MSM was back into the issue of impeachment. It was as if there was a type of a mindwipe to the American people. As if they should forget about the Iran issue … it is not important – back to impeachment – go shopping.
And just this fast the further rubbishing of Iran started with the Boeing that fell out of the sky.
First one, Justin Trudeau, saying that Iran shot that plane down and they have ‘evidence’. Today there are reports that Trudeau may have said it is the US.
Second, some high level Iraqi I forget who, saying that Iran ‘breached Iraqi sovereignty’. Bribe money is flowing.
So, the body blow war in the public space for the public attention has started, but Trump is back on the campaign trail.
With all of this, hard analysis would give us Advantage Trump but internally I don’t think they are thinking advantage Trump. I think the empire is threatened now economically and militarily, and it looks like the penny is on some level dropping for them.
Before I can say Advantage Trump, I have to say it rather looks like Quagmire Everyone, i.e., advantage to the one who claims it at the moment, and event driven. I think we are into the real war – and in boxing terms, into the bodyblows of a very ugly fight. Iran will benefit by being able to take a breath and shore up the gap that Gen Suleimani left. For the empire, it is a series of being hassled everywhere, like Afghanistan where the troops cannot leave their bases without air-cover (remember the Green Zone was breached for the first time). I don’t think Iran will go to a negotiating table – perhaps with proxies – before sanctions are dropped, or before they see a level of reality from empire.
So, my view would be Quagmire All Around. Specifically the statements that the Iraqi vote is non-binding. This means the US considers that vote non-binding on themselves (great democracy being displayed here eh) – they do not accept it and they will not leave until carried out in body bags, and that is another fight.
I truly don’t see Advantage Anyone just at this moment. I see the overall ‘balance of resistance’ tilting toward the resistance side given the complete milieu – big picture and all of the resistance – one country cannot do it alone.
” – Russia has announced that they are now monitoring the ME with their satellites – in other words, they are taking names of the movements there. ”
Russia could permanently cripple the ZioAmericans by releasing the truth behind the 9-11 ” attacks “, yet it sits on that information. Why ? Imagine the internal turmoil it would cause to US society. Attacking Iran would be the least of its problems, and the US populace would tear to pieces the nearest duel-citizens they could get their hands on.
Here are my humble to cents about anti-air defense related comments some friends made here.
1- So, the superb capabilities of S-300 and S-400 and the incoming S-500 are by now well established. What I would like to call you attention is that these defense systems are for heavy duty work, I mean defense against heavy missiles, ballistic or not and planes approaching from long distance. Smaller targets, and short distance approaching threads, should be much better engaged by Pantsir systems. I personally find the Pantsirs even more superbs than the S-xxx series. They can deal with every thing from small drones to planes and cruise missiles. As our dear friend Saker discussed these issues here before, in very good depth. So in conclusion, an effective air defense should be multi-layered. S-xxx, Pantsirs, even guys with some machine guns in good watching points.
2- I am pretty convinced that Iran + Resistence Axis demonstrated quite well the current air defense systems deployed by USA + Regional Allies are quite useless. Summarizing it could not prevent: katyushas, low altitude drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and stones (kidding :) ).
3- We can expect the global sales of russian pantsirs and s-xxx to soar after that developments. Sodiers in these USA bases around Iran should be very scared by now.
Post-scriptum: Some news about Juba operating in Iraq again?
“Finally, the chances of an Israeli false flag as still sky high”.
I tend to believe that the Ukraine Airlines crash is a textbook example of a false flag. Who benefits? Not Iran. The timing was so perfect that it must have been Mossad, CIA. Iran’s retribution was expected with enough time to plan and execute. I can imagine how western media is treating the situation, without an investigation of course.
Yesterday I saw premier Blackface of Canada declaring that flight PS752 was taken down with a missile. There we go again. Suddenly pictures popped up of parts of a Tor-M1 missile, that could have been taken anywhere.
Now, if I look at pictures of the crash site, it looks that the plane has come down in one piece. That does not happen when it is targeted by a surface to air missile. These explode close to the taget, it is the shock wave that destroys them. The plane would have been torn to pieces. Does any MSM reporter even taken the effort to dive into what kind of missile a Tor system delivers? Ok, I’ll help them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor_missile_system
Who benefits? Boeing, of course, a major defense contractor as well. The company that once employed Nikki Haley, and is in really bad weather due to crashes of their 737 MAX. Just read some excerpts of internal e-mails that they wanted to stay hidden for the FAA: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/plane-was-designed-clowns-shocking-boeing-emails-reveal-contempt-management-faa
“This airplane is designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkeys…”
The now crashed plane was a 737 800, where recently was some commotion about found cracks in the wing-hull connection. Now, every steel structure undergoing stress may have some cracks. Even a steel bridge that we are driving over may have cracks. The notorious Rheinbrücke at Duisburg, once designed for 30000 vehicles per day, is now handling 100000 vehicles per day with two lanes closed, and is closed down two times per year for crack repair that is constantly monitored.
Can we imagine the damage for Boeing (lawsuits, claims) when also their 737 800 is compromised? Tehran has declared that the pilot still had contact with the traffic tower after the fire/explosion, and the flight data recorder and voice data recorder have been found. Are we surprised that the Iranians didn’t want to hand them over, but invited all parties to come over and participate in the investigation (except for Americans)?
This missile story may soon go up in smoke, I guess.
Adding an odd thought, that popped in my mind while listening to my car radio where on the news the next officials were claiming an accidental missile cause.
Without any evidence of course, while the Iranians are sitting on that.
The mighty Boeing lobby has hit DC, because they are desperate to avoid the next clusterf*ck. The paralyzed poodles in the EU and Canada are just following orders.
Maybe they are inviting Iran to go along with the story. And the Iranians are leaning back, awaiting what could then be in it for them (realizing that the other party is non-agreement-capable). Having the evidence as blackmail material.
Just a theory. Conspiracy, of course ;-)
Dear, dear Saker,
You have spent many hours during your holidays of Christmas and New Year to selflessly help us understand this latest quagmire in ME, starting with the vulgar and evil murder of general Soleimany of Iran…
I have many MSM channels available on TV, forums in Southern Europe, but all is full of disinformation…I stopped watching and contributing long time ago, can not stomach the vulgar propaganda…
It is you and your reasonable and well balanced analysis we, all the small submarines in the desert, go to…With trust and respect which you have earned over the time.
I wish you to know how important you are to so many of us all over the world, as you are a brave and noble truth seeker.
Also, many commenters on your site help us understand better what is going on…
Your selfless work is much, much appreciated…
Thank you so much. You need to know that you are very important to many of us all over the planet.
You have become my most important source on the internet, and yes, I know your site since beginning of the Ukraine circus…when i was looking for answers in midst of so many lies and disinfo.
Thank you for everything, enjoy the healthy, prosperous and exciting times ahead.
Once you gave me advice not to give up as I live in malign country, I have listened to you, and am networking for the better world.
All the best, and lots of love to You and yours.
Maybe I have offended some with my over emotional post, but this is us Slaves, somewhat like Arabs, will love you to death, will be easily cruel if you insult us.
My apologies, and a present:
I agree with Saker that this is just the beginning, or a slap in the face as said by Iranians. Very educational slap.If only the gringos could get the message.
I think Iran has shown what they can do, high precision hits, warning time of 2 hours…
Trump and generals behind him at this speech said it all, they were not happy.
I hope this is not going to escalate, but against my hopes, I fear it will.
It is a path long since set:
your comment does not offend but humbles me.
I endorse your appreciation and observations….
western media in europe as in pacific is trash – period !
I stopped giving it any attention…. and I sleep better since
What more can one say
Imho honesty and sincere respect can never be offending, on the contrary.
Keep up and all the best, cheers, Rob
U.S. Patriot anti-missile defenses
Quite a few people (including myself) have noticed that the U.S. did not intercept any of the incoming Iranian missiles. Is there any possibility, just to be charitable, that the U.S. military figured, …
I’d like to know if there are any military guys who would consider this a possibility. I am NOT inclined to believe this because it would be extremely risky and irresponsible to let a conventional warhead hit a target whether or not your guys are bunkered. You don’t know how much explosive power is in the warhead and I would not want to be in a bunker that gets a direct hit.
Perhaps the US military could not see them ….
or they could but ….
they knew that their “stuff” couldnt hit any incoming so rather than embarasse themselves …. did nothing, said nothing . and other senarios …
Imagine the PR for iran if they had fired a volley and missed !!!
Iran gains orders for missiles
US has take back its junk cause it dont work and refund buyers !
The muted US response to an attack on their largest military base could be interpreted, obviously, in numerous ways. To suggest that they were just happy to call the episode finished IMO is somewhat of a simplistic way of viewing things. An hours warning of an impending missile attack gives plenty of time to prepare, and presents a prime opportunity for ‘real’ testing and matching of ones own capabilities against an opponent, which rarely presents itself, and is something analysts salivate over. Further, the act of successfully intercepting and destroying Iranian missiles would present a very valuable opportunity for public humiliation of Iranian capabilities. That never happened. It’s fairly likely they tried and failed utterly, and that this, not their commitment to deep and abiding humanitarian principles, is what caused the (lack of) response from the United States. If the Iranian attack had been less successful we would be witnessing the US attack at this moment.
My brother you are a great blogger and analyst. I like the way you leave the debate open and how you support your arguments with well thought and researched detail. I am a blogger yes, running the blog “Africa My Pride” found here: http://bakiuganda.blogspot.com/ but you are too much. I would love so much that you help me sharpen my blogging skills. In shot, deducing from your analysis, Iran walked out with a loot. It has demonstrated to the whole world that its threats are not empty. With their “little” power, they do good. I believe it has a lot of other capabilities that still remains unexplored. Imagine those so precise and accurate missiles placed in its fast boats operated by the IRGC swarming towards a US carrier. The rest may be history. This is no longer 1988. Its the 21st century. In shot, Uncle Sam has to be more careful this time around.
It seems to me that the highest probability now is that of a false flag strike on a U.S. target by Israel and the CIA,
The Israeli/neocon war enthusiasts who surround and control Trump have not given up their long-pimped war with Iran: so long as Netanyahu needs a president-for-life get-out-of-jail war, the world can expect a spectacularly savage Israel/U.S.-staged false flag attack that will, naturally, be blamed on Iran.
This is, as you say, far from over; but the cards well be dealt from Israel.
On that, see this from history for hints what’s coming, nearly 60 years ago, from BOP Cuba on to the ’62 missile crisis, & their determination to get Fidel: Operation Mongoose;
January 18, 1962
Edward Lansdale outlines “The Cuba Project,” a program under OPERATION MONGOOSE aimed at the overthrow of the Castro government. Thirty-two planning tasks, ranging from sabotage actions to intelligence activities, are assigned to the agencies involved in MONGOOSE
January 19, 1962
A meeting of the SGA is held in Robert Kennedy ‘s office. Notes taken by CIA representative George McManus contain the following passages: “Conclusion Overthrow of Castro is Possible…a solution to the Cuban problem today carried top priority in U.S. Gov[ernment]. No time, money, effort–or manpower is to be spared.
BTW, as of this weekend,we are exactly into a 57.78-year Lucas cycle timeout of events starting appx April1/1962.25,(says only “April/1962” in this link) when the Jupiter IRBM’s went operational at Izmir, Turkey NATO base.
So, 1962.25 +57.78= 2020.03 JAN11.
57.78 is 5778/100, 5778 is Lucas term 18, nearest PHI exp18, and can have a bad bite to it since it is the only Lucas or Fibonacci # which results from an integer sum of a powerful integer, less itself.
IOW, 5778= Sum of integers 1 thru 107, leaving out the cosmic 108 its root is in.
“Powerful integers” are: 6, 13, 19, 29, 31, 37, 47, 79, 108. So it’s also double special in that 108 is the only non-prime there.
Last night on FOX
Secretary of State Fat Mike Pompeo:
”Qassem Soleimani was plotting imminent attacks against the United States.
” FOX News Reporter: ”Could you be more specific?”
Fat Mike Pompeo: ”Yeah, we don’t know what, where or when, but it was imminent.”
Yes indeed, the way the Iranians conducted this response was brilliant. It was not so much an attack as a demonstration. I think they made their point. Maybe this is why, when Trump gave his little speech full of the usual lies and projecting the two military figures standing behind him looked so grim.
All the focus now is on that airliner which crashed. This of course, stinks to high heaven. We have seen this before. They always follow the same script. Social media is screaming about the evil Iranians shooting it down with a missile. Certain public figures (must I call them leaders?) such as white shoe boy Trudeau say they have intelligence (this is an oxymoron, using this word in connection with them) that Iran shot it down, though maybe by mistake. They say bits of a TorM1 were found in an Iranian neighbourhood. Much like the passport of an alleged Muslim flyer on 9/11 that survived the impact and landed like new on the city street. And of course, the Tor is Russian made! And all of this was learned so quickly. They didn’t even have to examine the flight recorders to know the entire story. And this is another reason people are freaking out. Iran is holding onto the flight recorders because they are guilty and trying to hide the evidence. Alas, I try to calmly explain that they are wise to do so given the circus with the flight that was brought down over Ukraine where the black box was taken away and Russia was not allowed to examine any evidence. Iran welcomes all involved to send a representative to examine the evidence together. People are out of their minds with rage and hate. The one thing the west has been very successful with is their propaganda/mind control. And if you try to calmly change their minds then you become a target. Believe me, I know!
Yes, how true: The Russians “… didn’t even have to examine THOROUGHLY the flight recorders, because they are guilty and try to hide the evidence…” and “… they WERE to do so given the circus with the flight that was brought down IN SMOLENSK, where the black boxes were taken away, and POLAND was not allowed to examine any REAL, ORIGINAL evidence…”.
Same handwriting – same criminals.
That was ~ 10 years ago: happee jubilee!
I have been wargaming in the case of an all-out war between Iran + PMU vs US, so if I were the Iranian Chieff of Staff I would impose the following strategy (script), for the best possible use of resources and forces at hand:
1) The absolutely first priority of Allies (Iran & PMU) should be the US air bases, specifically to deny US the use of their air bases in the Middle East for their jets as much as possible, making them depending of long range bombers (which they have in much less numbers) and cruise missiles (long range bomber and cruise missiles fired from far away cannot give close air support to the surrounded bases and troops).
2) Other critical strategy for the Allies(I&PMU) is to maintain far away the Carrier Strikes Groups, using some shots of long range ballistics and cruise missiles (Soumar&others) to maintain them far enough from the Iranian shores. If the CSG’s are more than 2.000Km away from Iran in the Indian Ocean, the distances between the CSG’s and the west part of Iran, where the main Allied Missile Forces are allocated, will be around 3.600Km or more, so out of range of the Tomahawks missiles (1.700 Km), so only the US subs could fire them approaching the Iranian coast, but may be the Allies could have some surprises for them (in the form of mines or destroyers). The US could try to put the CSG’s in the Mediterranean Sea to strike the West of Iran, but they could be targeted also by the Allies, and the ruskies in Syria will not be glad to have some hundreds Tomahawks flying above their heads. Not easy
3) To deny the use of the air bases with the better use of resources the Allies have to make a division of labour:
a. The air bases in Iraq will be attacked almost exclusively by the PMU using a hell or MLRS and mortars. The first step is to cut all road supplies to the bases (gasoline is the most fundamental material to be cut).
b. In Iraq the first priorities of the barrages of rockets and mortars should be the fuel storages, second the airstrips (to prevent jets from landing and taking-off), third the ammo storages, and fourth the command and communication areas.
c. The barrages must be “Hezbollah style”, massive and almost non-stop, to prevent them repairing of the airstrips to be used again by the jets. The PMU have to assume they will have many casualties, but it is a war. The commander in the US bases have to choice if the maintenance teams will be exposed to the barrages to repair the airstrips, or remain in the shelters but then the jets cannot use the base. If the PMU are resolute, any jet will land or take-off.
d. To combat the helicopters the Allied need to have in Iraq many thousands on MANPAD, and to prevent the rescue teams of the US to rescue some “Blackhawk Down”, they will use the Hezbollah tactics: modern tandem warhead ATGM’s, modern tandem warhead RPG, modern anti-material rifles and modern MANPAD, they should have now in the thousands in Iraq. After some good ambushes the US bases will not recue anybody and remain locked in their bases trying to survive under the barrages and asking to be airlifted from the hell in helicopters, of course under the fire (by rockets, mortar and MANPAD when in air).
e. Just in case the rockets of the PMU are not enough, Iran could lob in to the more close US base the heavy unguided rockets they have: Fajr-3, Fajr-5, Zelzal 1-2-3 (600mm diameter)
4) For the air base in Kuwait (Ali Al Salem), the distance to Iraq is 62Km and to Iran 117Km, so is close enough to be targeted again by heavy MLRS (not by mortar or small rockets) to repeat the same strategy than the case of Iraq, in this case the Allied cannot cut the road supplies and they have to shot from longer distances, so the degrading process will take much longer to put the base out of service, in this case the heavy Zelzal 2 and 3 MLRS will be the weapons of choice to destroy the airstrips and fuel storages, probably some help for more accurate missiles will be required (they have thousands of un-guided missiles but much less guided, so the priority will be to use the un-guided, the war could last longtime)
5) For the US air bases in the Southern shores of the Persian Gulf the task to KO them will be exclusively for Iran, and they have to use the Zelzal-3 MLRS to smash the airstrips and above all the guided missiles, again to strike in the first priority the fuel storages, second command and control centers, third ammo storages, fourth hangar and spare parts storage. The distances of the US bases are in the range of the heavy MLRS of Iran (Zelzal-3 and Fajr-5C): Al Udeid is at 265Km from Iran, Saikh Isa at 240Km and Al Dhafra at 245Km, somebody did not thought some 50 years ago that these bases could be used to confront Iran, which is just in front of them all along the coast. All of them will burn.
6) For the air bases in Jordan a Turkey, the long range missiles should be used, but the distance, again, matter a lot, the airplanes cannot be too much time in the Iraqi and much less in the Iranian airspace (to refuel) and they need, before attack the Iranian soil, to take down the Iranian air defenses, but probably they not have enough fire power to do that, and also the political resistances from Turkey and in less degree Jordan could be quit hard to avoid. Erdogan could decide to not allow more attacks to the Allies from Incirlik, and them the war is over for the US (at least the conventional war…)
7) Secondary targets will be the ships in the Persian Gulf, above all that armed with Tomahawks (frigate and destroyers) that can shot to Iran, but it is expected they will run out of them quickly and without re-supply they cannot continue fighting, but if you cannot land a single big transport plane, because all the airstrips are damaged, and you cannot have a ship passing the Strait of Hormuz, how in the hell could you re-supply your troops and maintain them fighting to a more numerous and close to his land enemy?
In this strategy is very important the Allies focus in the air bases, and not deviate to attack other perceived as “good” targets (“normal” military bases, naval bases, oil refineries, oil platforms, Israel, etc…) even if US destroy the oil refineries of Iran. The Allied should avoid the error of Hitler in the Battle of England when after Churchill ordered the RAF to bomb Hamburg, the Lufwaffe started to bomb the English cities when they were wining attacking only the British air bases. The Lufwaffe lost the Battle of England because they forget the strategic priority targets and focus in other political and tactic targets.
Could this strategy works? and what can USA do to avoid it works? (in this wargame the ICBM and nukes are forbidden)
The achilles heel of the hegemon (if not any army) is logistics, because an army of shooting blokes also needs food, ammo, medics, mechanics (LOTS of them) and so on. I don’t know the actual ratio, but a rough guess (‘Pi mahl Daum’ as they say here) I would say at least three, if not more. How do you get all that stuff there?
Concerning your point 7: forget it. Hegemons ships in the Persian gulf in a conflict? They are toast. Meet and greet the fine young man Yakhont anti ship missile: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-800_Oniks
Of course I’m not sure, but when Hezbollah has them, I’m pretty sure Iran has them too or at least reverse engineered them.
Just to get an idea what this looks like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AW1XHUcAsQ
Supersonic, 300 kg warhead armor piercing. If I were a USN sailor I would be sweating titanically knowing that this would be flying towards me for a nice embrace.
Talking about the USN, I just hit today upon this: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-fires-warning-shots-russian-warship-after-aggressive-approach-arabian-sea
Now I don’t want to be rude, but it is an international naval rule that the ship on the starboard side has the priviliged routing, and the other one has to give way. That this incident happens is already severe enough (do they have radar on board, are they sleeping?), but that the 5th fleet command is whining about this is hilarious- apparently they think that everyone must make way for the mighty ships of the galaxy. Therefore they ram docked ships, a container ship, and once they got rammed themselves by an oil tanker – concerning its special nose, it must have been looked like a male rottweiler tried to make fun time with a chihuahua.
One tip for the USN: start getting professional, navigating for a start could be an idea.
Yes of course, as Alfred Thayer Mahan said: “you can achieve victory if you denie your adversary the supply routes while maintaining yours” (or something like that). Well this is the same Mahan that in 1890 said: “Well OK the US frontier is now over, so from now on whether the American people want it or not, United State will be an emire”, and then in 1898 USA declared war to Spain (after Maine false flag attack), the rest you know…
Supersonic anti-ship missiles are a bitch, specially in a “lake” like the Persian Gulf, where you cannot hide from them, and good luck retreating through the Strait of Hormuz passing close to the Iranian shores hundreds and hundreds of kilometers…
What the Allies (I+PMU) had to do is to sink every transport of supply and troops if they try to move then, at first, forget the hard targets, because what you need to achieve is to strangle the American war machine of fuel, ammo, and men in the theater; and this must be made now that the US pieces in the chessboard are in a very very weak position. With only 5.200 troops in Iraq and 10.000 in Kuwait and they think they can win an all-out war with Iraq & Iran? Crazy!
The US has started the chess game in a very poor position, with the pawns and horses deployed too forward in the chessboard, and the USA military leadership are in a very bad situation, if they try to send massive troops and equipment reinforcement Iran will not be iddle waiting how US is preparing to destroy them as the stupid Saddam did in 1991 and again in 2003, no, Iran will start the war with any pretext before new troops & equipment is deployed in significant amounts.
On the other hand, if Iran escalate, the CENTCOM cannot support the “lost” garrison in Iraq and Kuwait, they do not have enough forces deployed in the theater, and an airlift operation of this magnitud under fire is very dangerous and a ride through hundreds of miles through hostile terrain under harassment from Iranians and PMU troops “Hezbollah style” (as IDF suffer in 2006), and without heavy armor scort and close air support will be almost suicidal (could be almost as the infamous “Highway of Death” at the end of Desert Storm, 1991)
Iranian have been preparing for a war with USA from 1979, but now the situation is better than ever before, I do not give a cent on USA now if they do not retreat quickly from Syria and Iraq (if Trump is enough intelligent it will order soon, but I am afraid he wants to play poker once more), and stop to make threats and provocations. But they “cannot” retreat, you know, is an electoral year and Trump want to be re-elected above all.
For more military analysis see:
Also interesting that Iran has tons of depleted uranium (DU). Uranium tipped missiles are useful in penetrating hardened targets such as bunkers and the Israeli DIMONA nuclear weapons site.
Iran really wants to be left in peace and has not invaded any other country for at least the last couple hundred years. In fact Iran decided to set out both world wars and was still invaded by the so called “allies”.
A full scale conflict between Israel/FUKUS and Iran (and its allies) would end the world economy leading to the collapse of many countries. In contrast the US has been at was about 93% of the time and has invaded of overthrown other countries over a hundred times (some several times).
If Iran does have big missile of 2-3m type accuracy, just imagine 5 or 6 coming down on an aircraft carrier and several low level cruise coming in coordinated. The Phalanx and other systems might get some but likely not all. A much juicer target than a desert base.
And Dimona? Oh boy.
I fear the West will push Iran until it sees no reason for any restraint. They may not have the same level of Sampson option available, but they certainly have the ability to cause massive hardship to their foes.
One would hope the US strategists would have pointed out all the bad scenarios and that someone in charge would listen. Maybe they did as Trump does look like a kid who was told he would not get the toy he had been demanding for Christmas.
Pres. Trump and his administration were so scared of the iranian attack they almost stumbled, stiff as poles, and spoke incoherently during pressconferences. Trump was also stiff as a pole as he wobblet out to the microphone. Why? I think they expected absolute american superiority , sufficient air defenses, and would be able to ward off the attack . On the contrary, the american defenses were not able to defend anything! So, it appeared to them that the american weaponry are inferior that include their own cruisemissile capabilities as proven in Syria, and norw air defenses during this attack. The administration led by pres. Trump also failed gravely in upholding international law. They appear to be guilty of warcrimes of the most serious nature including the act of aggression.
Now, UN appear to be lame in dealing with conflicts, absolutely a total failure in fact. This does not mean that it has to jump into action before it is too late. Here is why: (USA do not hold any of these powers, including sanctions, such actions are reserved for the UN security council)
The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the Members of the United Nations to apply such measures. These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations.
I further refer to the UN charter here is some of those central articles including those of UNSC:
The Purposes of the United Nations are:
1. To maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace.
CHAPTER VII: ACTION WITH RESPECT TO THREATS TO THE PEACE, BREACHES OF THE PEACE, AND ACTS OF AGGRESSION
The Security Council shall determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression and shall make recommendations, or decide what measures shall be taken in accordance with Articles 41 and 42, to maintain or restore international peace and security.
In order to prevent an aggravation of the situation, the Security Council may, before making the recommendations or deciding upon the measures provided for in Article 39, call upon the parties concerned to comply with such provisional measures as it deems necessary or desirable. Such provisional measures shall be without prejudice to the rights, claims, or position of the parties concerned. The Security Council shall duly take account of failure to comply with such provisional measures.
Should the Security Council consider that measures provided for in Article 41 would be inadequate or have proved to be inadequate, it may take such action by air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security. Such action may include demonstrations, blockade, and other operations by air, sea, or land forces of Members of the United Nations.
I don’t see how president Trump may continue on his present path, taking also into account ICC, the warcrimes he comitted especially the act of aggression against Iran and the assasinations he ordered.
So , there is another urgent matter, UN has to stand up and start doing its job. That is a disgrace how they are not doing anything.
I think Iran should have made a more firm attack… The empire just increased the sanctions which hurt the Iranian economy much, much more than it already did. Crippling the economy and expect more uprisings from the people. Btw, sanctions are a way of warfare of which Iran has no appropriate answer, so in the end the empire just increased the ante. Israhell just bombed an Iranian base/depot in Iraq. I don’t see that the empire of evil will withdraw from the ME soon.
So both countries of evil are not really terrified of the Iranian missiles. I still think it would be better that Iran became under the protection of Russia/China and from there had a firm attack on the empire. Then the empire will leave. Remember Vietnam where the empire lost tremendous lives and they left, no nukes. Iran had the leverage because of the killing of Suleimani and the empire would otherwise enroll in a most unpopular war (no congress approval & the people in the empire are sick of all the ME wars). If Iran attacks the empire in a later time, people in the empire are not able to link this to the death of Suleimani, and think it is not appropriate and will stand behind a retalliation more than it would have been now.
Expect crippling sanctions, expect the crashed plane to be taken as a maximum pressure means to Iran (whatever the real reason of the attack was, the empire will take it to its advantage). The “international” community (due to the propaganda of the empire) will blame Iran for the plane, more sanctions, more isolation. After a few months, hunger (due to the crippling economy) is more important than the murder of Suleimani. I’m afraid this has devastating effects for Iran.
Thanks for your analyzes.
I would like to comment about another item. Iran is withdrawing from the 5Th commitment of the JCPoA
It means that they are now enritching uranium beyong the theoretical military threshold > 20%
Even if they are not intending to device an hydrogen nuclear bomb, it will be easier for them in the next fiuture to build nuclear tactical weapons. I suppose that they have tritium which is not required to be in great quantity.
This aircraft hysteria should suffer an early death. I wonder if any world figures will apologize?
As always, Saker, your analysis is highly informative, respected and appreciated (especially by someone like myself who knows nothing about military warfare). There is another factor that is involved though and that’s psychological warfare. The USA has become king of the hill in this realm, perhaps because it can catapult the propaganda with ease, without qualms and be assured of impunity (psyop experts and presstitutes make a formidable tag team).
Right now, the Canadian cries of “shootdown” of Flight PS752 are joining the chorus of the American crowings of “we shot the terrorist and we won”. I hope someone will address this aspect in more detail (sorry if I’ve missed something among many comments I’ve yet to read). I see the investigation of this tragic crash barely has a chance to begin and yet Iran is already being accused of shooting down this plane which was carrying mostly its own citizens and Canadians, many of whom had Iranian roots. I do not see any Iranian “cui bono” in that. Anyway it has me worried that another MH17 is in the making where no matter what real evidence Russia produced to the contrary the public perception was that Russia did it.
On a small but interesting note, the number 52 seems to be popping up … 52 Iranian hostages, 52 cultural site targets and now Flight PS-7-52 and I do recall that ridiculous deck of 52 cards depicting the Iraq war’s “most wanted”.
Perhaps the wise commenters here can tell me where the Iranian missiles were launched from in relation to Tehran and why the airport was not shut down for at least 24 hours around the time of the missile launches. I’ve been reading a great deal but these are things I haven’t discovered yet.
Very thoughtful review. My only salient comment is that the logic of the imperial oil-buck requires Iran submit, requires ruining and smashing Iran. Because that’s not possible just now, the strategy will be adapted until either the Imperial part disintegrates (thus changing the goal) or Iran is defeated. As Saker said, the war continues, but perhaps I see the conflict as more foundational and less elective. I might add that Imperial Necessity also require that Russia and China also submit… That might not work out…
Meantime…Walter Huston at about 1 minute https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OcM23Hbs5U
That’s what just happened. Iran did what Walter did in Treasure of Sierra Madre…
Iraqi prime minister Abdul-Mahdi wants US to set up a mechanism for withdrawal of troops. Jan 10.
The prime minister said Iraq rejects violation of its sovereignty, particularly the US military’s violation of Iraqi airspace in the airstrike that assassinated Soleimani last week.
Abdul-Mahdi asked Pompeo to “send delegates to Iraq to prepare a mechanism to carry out the parliament’s resolution regarding the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq,” the statement said.
NATO is trying to convince someone that they something else, not the very force involved in training terrorists and massive Gladio operations against many countries (clandestine, subversive, diversive psyops, cyberwarfare), while that is what their memberstates are doing.
Stoltenberg is a former norwegian Prime minister, now Prime Minister Erna Solberg deployed norwegian troops to american terrorist base al-Tanf in Syria, blockading the Damascus-Baghdad highway, stating that they wanted to fight IS, and needed to train sunni muslim fighters. A little bit confusing strategy since IS are sunni muslim fighters (Jihadis), and quite a case of religious discrimination. And they did not fight IS who became free to operate in that region and within Iraq’s al Anbar province across the border until the PMF became a strong fighting force. That is what the assasinations are about.
On the contrary PMF in Iraq consist of many groups of people and religions and they are the ones fighting IS in Iraq and their deputy commander were assasinated by USA/NATO with their iranian counterpart general Soleimani fighting IS. PMF part of the Iraqi army, and IRCG that are officially recognized by Iraq for that purpose. So who is the terrorist ?
One thing I wonder is, didn’t these bases have patriot missiles protecting them? So how did the iranian missiles get through? Or did the American system fail so dismally?
According to this article, it’s because they’re a lemon in the guise of an unerring perfect system peddled w/w for big $$:
A pesky Congressional Research Service employee noted that if the Army had correctly applied its own assessment methodology consistently, the number would be far lower. (Reportedly that number was one — as in one lousy Scud missile downed.)
According to a House Committee on Government Operations investigation, there was not enough evidence to conclude that there had been any intercepts.
(I did not realize till this that these modern missiles separate the warhead from the body the last few dozen miles from target & “free-fall” to target with a far punier radar X-section.
If you know the enemy missiles are indeed accurate, then you don’t need to get ‘to the shelters’ when a warning is sounded. All you really need to do is to get outside the perimeter fence. After all, those accurate missiles are going to be dropping on their targets, so ….. don’t be there.
Saves those traffic jams on the stairs down to the shelters. As long as the people shooting at you can’t predict where you will be, then you can be sitting on the patio of a bar a mile away watching the light show. :) ;)
(in the middle east, might need to substitute ‘coffee shop’ for ‘bar’.)
IK stated in his speech yesterday that Pakistan will play a role in having peace between SA and Iran. Why would he say that unless he already knows that there was already something in the works. General Qassem was in Iraq to respond positively to a message from SA. Greater Israel can only be a reality if there is Sunni Shia chaos in the ME. A peace or even just a mere positive understanding between SA and Iran means the death of the Empire. IK has been driving MBS around. Obviously he’s been talking to him and mentoring him about the great game and the setup and traps being laid for both SA and Iran.
An important contribution on the dubject of Iran and Trump and his reelection matrix
A point of difference…war with Iran began in 1953 with the CIA backed overthrow of Mossadagh and the installation by the western oil companies of the corrupt Shah. The Iranian’s suffered greatly under him with the Shah’s secret police, the savak (langley trained) brutalizing and murdering many.
Interesting to note the war game Millennium Challenge played back in 2002 with Iran being represented by the Red team(Opfor) commanded by General Van Riper defeated the US Blue team even though the war game referees handcuffed General Van Riper’s Red team. The US pissed away 250 million on the exercise to only find out the obvious. Sounds about right.
Mr. T. is now just buying time till they find a workable Plan B is all.
Know about this failed Plan B from Jimmy’s disastrous Plan A (Opn Eagle Claw) foray into Iran April/1980?:
Late 1980: in a top-secret mission to rescue the American hostages in Iran, the US government modified a C-130 Hercules to be a “Super STOL” aircraft by adding 30 rockets to boost it on takeoff and slow it on landing
Iran admits ‘human error’ brought down Ukrainian flight over Tehran after ‘unintentional’ missile launch
That’s admirable. Someone somewhere could learn from that.
I am surprised to note that you have not questioned the decision to kill the Iranian General perhaps was not Trump’?. Perhaps the zio-industrial complex took out the General without informing Trump; subsequently, they pressed the right buttons to unleash his ego forcing him to own the killing with the usual bravado. In calmer moment Trump knows war not only diminishes his re-election prospects but is also against the interest of the Nation. Regardless of the President’s loud mouthness, I believe world peace will last as long as Trump is in the office. The next President be it a Republican or Democrat will give a free hand to the zio-industrial complex to reignite the US-Russian tensions leading up to WW3.
In terms of the accuracy of the Iranian missiles, CNN expert explicitly stated that Iran has made a quantum leap in missile technology. Although this is not a full balance of terror, it still goes a long way in extending the little precious time the Planet prior to the FINAL world war.
A good and balanced obituary to the recently killed Quds Force Commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani
Dear Saker, the statisticalal analysis does not seem adequate to me (though I believe tge main point stands. For a start, what you are looking at is not image analysis but spatial analysis. Simply counting the number of “building” pixels and comparing that with “non-building” pixels is not appropriate. What you are actually doing is assuming that an unguided missile (or a missile with only inertial navigational guidance) will fall inside the image with 100% probability and that the probability distribution within the image is totally random. These two assumptions are completely unsubstantiated and actually obviously false. A proper analysis should assume something more reasonable, such as that the Iranians were aiming at buildings and that the probability disstribution would be Gaussian (a Gaussian kernel, i.e. assuming a normal spatial distribution) and centered on the points they were aiming at. Since we don’t know what they were aiming at, we will then have to make further assumptions about that. We can then analyse the probability e.g. of hitting something substantial given a circular error of 500m (the accuracy given on Wikipedia) in a similar way to your friends analysis. Strictly speaking, the analysis is even more complicated than that, since what you are doing is comparing two hypothesis, not analysing a single hypothesis.
The statistical analysis is clearly not adequate because of the reasons that you give. No statistical analysis is needed anymore, though, if one watches the following YouTube video:
specifically that what can be seen at 1:55. Pausing the video allows one to count 9 impacts none of which appears to be placed randomly. The impact pattern is totally incompatible with the large inaccuracy of the type of missile used as it is stated in public sources. Given that inaccuracy, what would the probability of 9 missiles coming down within the air base perimeter without any of them hitting the large open spaces in between above-ground structures, parking areas, runways, and taxiways? It must be practically zero. The one and only impact on a runway is a cute little one dead center in its middle, as if the Iranians were targeting the white line that can be seen painted on its asphalt. Successfully. Another one hit dead center on a telt and the list goes on. It is almost as if the Iranians were joking.
(The narrative accompanying the video says that the impact pattern is random but that is obviously nonsense.)
We are seeing a revolution in military affairs. Who needs nukes anymore if conventional missiles provide the capability of shutting down infrastructure, production facilities, non-hardened military targets? And what about traditional, large-scale conventional land battles? Such battles require a tremendous infrastructure in the rear. What if this infrastructure can be disabled almost at the flick of a switch?
Bonus speculation on the Boeing shoot-down: The Iranians did it on purpose. The Boeing was probably packed with dual-citizens who were operating as Western agents and who were being evacuated pending further hostilities. Ukraine has no Iranian diaspora to speak of, so what were all these dual-citizens doing on this plane? Ukraine is a hotbed of Western intelligence activity. Now add two and two. The Iranians were thinking “Why let them all get away?” They killed them all, later blaming the shoot-down on themselves as a result of confusion brought about by American threats. Now that is Chutzpah.