The bitter fruits of empty threats 29500 Views July 06, 2017 Saker Analyses and Interviews The Saker Now *you* make the analysis :-) The Saker The Essential Saker IV: Messianic Narcissism's Agony by a Thousand Cuts Order Now The Essential Saker III: Chronicling The Tragedy, Farce And Collapse of the Empire in the Era of Mr MAGA Order Now Tagged empty threatsTrump
It’s an empty threat until it’s not.
The US and NATO are continually signalling on multiple fronts for the potential for escalation.
I imagine that collective unilateral action in Syria, Ukraine, North Korea, or South China Sea is very low (unless a world war happens, but that’s not what I am considering at the moment). However to successfully defend yourself you must prepare in each of those separate areas. Positioning troops on the border of N Korea (both China and Russia), building an artificial island to extend your buffer zone in case of aggression in the S China Sea, funding and supporting a capable contingent to prevent domino collapse of Syria then Iran, reinforcing and aiding Ukrainians in the east…
Thanks to the dollar and exceptional (I can only assume) bribery/black mail capability (this is actually a concept in game theory – basically how to control the actions of independent actors working in their self interest), the US has the real and significant advantage of creating chaos and projecting force on many separate fronts. This process can be used to drain the resources, focus, and resolve of those constantly shuffling defenses to mitigate the unknown and forestall domino-type failure on their periphery.
Now, with that context, if you’re referring to Trump himself and his tweet above, he’s no more than newest incarnate of faux presidency for public consumption.
You really think the $trillion+ MIC and intel agencies couldn’t, wouldn’t, shouldn’t jerry-rig in subtle ways an election to satiate all major opposition in this country? You won’t a single verifiable proof? What’s the difference if the outcome, the country we live in and the actions we seem to be making, are the exact same in both situations? No real functioning democracy deserving our support would ever replicate our current situation, in my opinion.
We see that they are willing to topple weaker nation states for the sake of a theoretical calculation of hegemony… to lay waste to human life out of fear that their dollar ponzi scheme may fall apart – and you have the gall to assume we are the loved exception? Lol
I don’t know if I even answered your question but it seems to not matter.
Thanks, Saker, and everyone else here for your comments. I fear that way too much work and effort and elemental rage has been put into the upcoming Asian War for this thing to ultimately not happen, and that includes having to drive the wagon full of lies OVER THE CLIFF in flames to make it all happen. The powers that be have an “Agenda”, and things are running a “bit” late, and even though you could ask 1,000 well-informed Americans “Do you really feel a legitimate threat from (as just one example: North Korea) and 950 of them responded that they do not feel “threatened”, this bloody war will get flogged and whipped forward. I have seen this again and again from almost 60 years of living in America: once the powers that be determine what the people of America really want, or do not want, they will stubbornly do the exact opposite , and then stick us with the bill for this unwanted thing, and it is a bill that we cannot help but notice has a big problem: the bill can never be repaid. Ever. And the awful thing that was done against our wills and which will forever wreck the future cannot be made to go right, ever. Tiresome, isn’t it? Imagine the world we could have had without these “people”! The problem is that long ago they lost their humanity, and unfortunately, make no mistake about this: they ARE really out to wreck ALL of it.
I mean You, the reader, who may be in the U.S. and may not be worried the same psychopathic behavior is in the cards with are supposedly dim-witted president that we have had to endure after every false flag and lying statement. He doesn’t have the reigns in any meaningful capacity. I voted for him out of the blind luck that an idiot could walk in an destroy everything on accident. Never mind his clearly false intentions aimed at the alt right.
Nils, I think it’s very demeaning to say Trump is a dim-wit. With an IQ of 156, I would say he is as far from dim-witted. Of course I am seeing a lot of things I don’t like but still wondering if he has a strategy to maneuver through the glut of globalist surrounding him. Or is he a Trojan horse? **sigh**
Now more than ever is the time for China and Russia to work together to stop a war breaking out in Northeast Asia. The way to do that is to make known to the US that they will not permit the US to attack North Korea. To clearly say that an attack on North Korea will be totally unacceptable for those two major nuclear states.Unless the US realizes plainly that they “must not” attack North Korea. Then we will slowly move towards war. And once that starts there will be no stopping it. North Korea is almost without doubt not going to stand by and just let the US bomb them. They will (I believe) retaliate in a massive way.And the “genie” of war will be out of the bottle.
“Now *you* make the analysis”
-Trump will lunch precision strike on NK, bomb their nuke facilities, NK will fire back, killings tens of thousands of SK civilians, starting a full-scale war between NK and USA, USA will launch an enormous bomb campaign on NK, destroying every visible target bombing them for weeks, maybe months… And.. Then… NK will continue to fire missiles and artillery at Japan, SK and USA bases.. And refuse to surrender.. US will suddenly realize that NK is mad, and wont quit, even if is is bomb to dust, even if 90% of its population starve, NK will not surrender….US will realize that NK is a country that has spent over a half-century preparing for a war with USA, and has been back with weapons and resources by USSR and China.
That they have endless stockpiles of missiles and ammo and endless tunnels to hide them in… And then months of missiles rain from NK will continue, hitting Tokyo, SK, and US bases, destabilizing the entire region and costing trillions.. US will continue to bomb, but at this point there are not many targets left..Then finally.. A message comes from NK… They demand, that USA and its vassels surrender, the chock in the USA administration is total.. Now they begin to realize, that the only way to defeat NK, is literally to go in with ground troops, defeat the NK conventional forces in every hide out, in every tunnel and then occupy NK for decades, while remaining NK special forces and militas constnatly attack occupying US forces…. The problem is that NK is all mountains, and they have a conventional army of millions, and a militia pretty much as big as their population.. And while NK is low-tech many of the USA high-tech advantages are neutralize in NK territory..While USA understands that the only way to defeat NK is to invade an occupy, they also understand that this is exactly what the NK leadership wants, and the countless civilians that had gotten butchered by US bombs and is eager for a chance at revenge.
Very nice. But you forgot to include one little detail: NK submarines patrolling the U.S. west coast, armed with nuclear missiles. Is the USG prepared to lose Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Sacramento, San Diego and Los Angeles, at the very least, in exchange for obliterating NK?
That is the real question.
The nightmare of the West bombing them into near oblivion almost seven decades ago is ingrained in every one of the one million solders that will cross over into South Korea on a suicide mission looking for revenge, Our obvious willingness to create a failed state of the entire Korean Peninsula should keep every South Korean up at night .
Saker, I hope you have more to say about all this. North Korea has been preparing for a war with the US for over 60 years. They’re ready and well dug in. This could get very bloody and end in disaster. The US is so quick to go to war, it’s just nuts. How the hell is the US going pull this off military?
I hope you have more to say about all this.
Yes, I will. In the next couple of days.
But first I wanted to hear from everybody else.
Cheers and thanks,
“For the United States, it is a fundamental principle of its foreign policy that it should be able to attack any nation of its choosing, and that no country ought to have the means of defending itself.
The North Koreans have taken note of the experience of Yugoslavia, Iraq, and Libya, and arrived at the conclusion that a small nation relying on conventional arms alone has no chance of deterring attack by the United States. North Korea says its nuclear program “is a legitimate and righteous measure for self-defence to protect the sovereignty and the right to existence” of the nation. ”
Quotes from: http://www.zoominkorea.org/
Yesterday Russia and China issued a joint statement suggesting NK halt it’s nuclear tests in return for the US and South Korea halting their invasion rehearsals, that talks begin based on mutual respect and noting that NK’s fears “are justified.”
Response from the US ? More threats of attack and utter silence on the issue of talks. Why won’t the US talk? Because if the US was forced to negotiate a “peace treaty” with NK they would no longer have a pretext for the military occupation of South Korea whose puppet government is being manipulated into a crisis the South Korean people do not want.
See – http://www.zoominkorea.org/postcard-from-seongjus-anti-thaad-protest/
In the situation NK is in why wouldn’t they test their weapons? What is the big deal anyway?
“It is an article of faith in the West that each missile test by North Korea is a “threat” or “provocation.” But is it true? Over the last several months, India tested its Agni-2 medium-range and Agni-3 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, as well as an Agni-5 ICBM, producing only yawns of indifference. Pakistan fired an Ababeel medium-range ballistic missile, capable of delivering multiple warheads, while China and Russia both tested ICBMs. The United States, as it was roundly condemning North Korea for its tests, launched Minuteman 3 and Trident missiles. None of these tests by nuclear powers were deemed provocative. Nor was note taken of the hypocrisy of the Trump administration in expressing outrage over North Korea doing what it was doing.”
“As the North Korean foreign ministry observed, “Not a single article or provision in the UN Charter and other international laws stipulates that nuclear test or ballistic rocket launch poses a threat to international peace and security.” The political and economic might of the United States gave it the means to prod other members of the UN Security Council to agree to its demand to impose sanctions on North Korea. As a result, North Korea is the only nation singled out by UN sanctions that forbid it from testing the same types of missiles as other countries are free to do. There is no legal basis for this double standard, which is primarily a product of U.S. influence”.
DPRK press statement – https://nkaggregator.com/2017/06/16/press-statement-of-dprk-foreign-ministry/
USA crimes never mentioned –
“In Why North Korea Needs Nukes – And How To End That we pointed to the utter destruction the U.S. and its allies waged in the war on Korea on all parts of the country. That North Korea seeks “weapons of mass destruction” is quite understandable when one takes into account the hundreds of thousands tons of napalm used against it. But even Napalm and the criminal destruction of North Korean dams were not the worst depravation the U.S. applied. Biological warfare agents, primarily anthrax, were dropped over North Korea and China and killed civilians. The U.S./UN command denied such use and covered it up. One consequence of that cover up was the development of torture methods in the U.S. SERE pilot training programs and their later proliferation into criminal abuses in Guantanamo, Abu Graibh and elsewhere. An important piece of evidence of this trail was recently and for the first time re-published on the web
Finally let’s remember how we got here.
“Critiques of the DPRK in relation to the topic of “human rights” often completely ignore the context and history of Korea. Between 3 and 4 million Koreans died in the Korean War, with no peace treaty ever signed. A similarly large amount died during the 1990s as a result of malnutrition, imposed on the country by the United States. The people of the DPRK are fighting for their very lives against the most powerful and well armed government in the world. Millions of Korean lives have already been claimed by the United States”.
from : http://www.4thmedia.org/2017/06/lets-talk-about-korea-the-dangerous-tone-of-us-media/
Americans may have no knowledge of history , but Chinese, Korean and Russian people do.
They remember and they learn and they prepare and they are ready ! !
“Why won’t the US talk?”
Because talking is nothing but a delaying tactic, to buy more time. Talking always pleases silly sheep such as President Obama and his worthless Sec. of State Kerry (who was so bad he actually made Hillary Clinton seem almost competent), but President Trump and Sec. Tillerson know that trick already and aren’t going to play that game.
So it would appear that the US does, in fact, know history.
True story: When John Kerry, Obama’s hapless Sec. of State, was running for President against George W. Bush in 2004, he proclaimed the North Korean “nuclear deal” under President Clinton a great success and his preferred model for dealing with Iran.
!!Even as he admitted that North Korea immediately broke the deal and violated its terms, removing the monitoring cameras and kicking out the inspectors, Kerry nonetheless considered it a proud achievement!!
And then he did make the same deal with Iran, except worse.
“Stupid is as stupid does”.
The governments of Iran and North Korea have far greater legitimacy among their people than all the US governments since 1776 combined have had among the American people. Therefore they have every right in the world to develop whatever weapon system they deem necessary to protect themselves from the criminal, arrogant, racist and imperialist US governments. North Korea NEVER broke any deal, the US broke EVERY deal, so get your facts straight.
If you, mr ‘ghost formerly known as prince’ are replying to ‘zena’ it would appear you didnt actually digest what zena said.
History has shown us the US hegemon doesnt talk, it shouts, with a gun in hand. Talking would require diplomatic negotiation, something the hegemon is incapable of, it would seem.
History in mr trump’s vocab would likely be ‘very, very, very old stuff’ – remodeled to fit the newthink of course
Ghost, I am not sure if you are serious or overly sarcastic. I guess my sense of humour is not very refined…
But if you’re actually serious, please respond to the four questions I have devised to present the subject to “polite” (i.e. brainwashed) company without shocking them:
1. Which is the only nation to have actually used nuclear weapons in war?
2. At that time, how many other nations had nuclear weapons?
3. After a second nation acquired them, how many times have nuclear weapons been used in war?
4. How many nuclear-capable nations have been victims of military invasion?
Thanks for playing!
Bravo, well said! Nothing further.
The Ghost Formerly Known As Prince:
Because talking is nothing but a delaying tactic, …
That’s an excellent observation. Finally US police forces have learned that lesson, too. Enjoy those military tactics at home.
The Ghost Formerly Known As Prince, They are far from stupid. They are mass murdering psychopathic predators. They are well trained to ‘keep repeating the lie’. They know exactly what they are doing and are following the plan of Global Governance!
Well it clearly represents a significant improvement in North Korea’s deterrent technology. I certainly don’t know enough about these topics to authorititatively judge but I would imagine that such an improvement, to outside eyes, would place on the agenda external assistance. Within that tentative context I would be inclined to place this event on a par with the Russian intervention in Syria albeit at a more restrained geo-political tempo.
Very doubtful ,except the assistance all nations get from studying each other. The North Koreans aren’t a tribal society from the Amazon or Congo basins. They have a long tradition of culture and technology. It takes them longer than for countries that have more World contacts to develop nuclear and missile systems.But they can and have done it. Just as Pakistan and India were able to do it. And China in the 1960’s was able to do it. The Soviets refused to aid China’s nuclear weapons program. So they created their own nuclear weapons.The North Koreans have done the same.This article on the Duran is interesting to explain some of the reality of North Korea’s economy:
Korea is a very ancient culture.
One of the most ancient cultures that could be termed a “high” culture.
Not to put cultures on a hierarchy.
But there is no reason, on the basis of its educational standards and previous cultural achievements, to assume that North Korea couldn’t figure out how to launch a missile.
Unless you assume that the USA did manage to bomb it back to the Stone Age.
I guess that didn’t work.
A missile with a range of 8k kilometers strikes me as a step change from previous missiles. I don’t know about guidance systems etc etc but it would seem to me that getting hold of this technology, developing prototypes and so on would take years, maybe decades. The North Koreans seem to be pushing our innovation at a rate only enjoyed by mobile phone companies. The North Koreans do have a history of collaboration with other countries (ie. Pakistan). I am certainly not making any statements about Korea though. I’m more interested in how this would be viewed from the Beltway. These are some mean, nasty mad, not to mention exceptionalist elements in the US and I would be tempted to see this being viewed as the first of a thousand cuts by them. ‘If we let this one go by, what will happen next’?
Let’s assume that N.Korea has one of these ballistic missiles with a credible nuke on top. Let’s also assume that it has had enough of US insults and belligerence and someone lobs it at the USA. These are all large assumptions that have little connection to reality and especially to rational miltary defensive strategy.
How far does anyone think this missile would get before interception? How many missiles would be needed before there’d be a sporting chance that one would get through? What would happen to N.Korea in the meantime?
N.Korea might be better off with ‘local’ cruise missiles that are difficult to detect and intercept.
Far better to lay waste to S.Korea and Japan and better still to just threaten to do so, keeping the status quo.
The bigger danger is that the USA will ‘bunker bust’ the N.Korean nuclear facilities and release radiation all over the nearby countries.
The nearby countries are China and Russia………….
Precisely, and Russia and China might take a dim view of it all. Beyond that there are other countries such as Japan, Taiwan, Philippines etc. within near radiation distance -I am unsure of the prevailing winds in that area but Beijing is only 800 kms away.
What would happen if the Hegemon stopped threatening N.Korea? I suspect the flowery bombastic jingoism from Kim would stop and everything would go back to normal life.
Additionally, in exchange for nuke removal I feel sure that Russia and China could secure meaningful agreements that they would protect N.Korea -any agreement with the USA would obviously not be worth the paper it was written on.
Let’s also assume that it has had enough of US insults and belligerence …
There’s more coming from the US than just insults and belligerence. On many occasions US politicians, strategists and other talking heads made statements of nuking NK or completely isolating NK (including sanctions on food imports). Would US citizens feel threatened if most countries would would consider blocking US imports (especially food)? (I know that the US is net exporter of wheat, but let’s assume the situation were different.)
It’s slowly dawning on even the dimmest: Mr. Obama and his stupid red line has left the building, and President Trump does not make empty threats.
Do not, however, assume that the only option on the table is a military strike. There is a whole range of economic “leverage” that can be brought to bear against North Korea, primarily directed at his sponsors and enablers.
It really comes down to this: Just how much does China love the little fat boy in Pyongyang?
I’m guessing the answer will be “not that much” if it ends up hurting China’s bottom line.
China and Russia have already signaled openness to freezing North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, which is really all the United States seeks. In practice that probably means the R&D will shift over to North Korea’s good friends and partners in Iran, but that’s another story for another day.
The sad thing watching US TV and MSM, no former diplomat, think-tank “expert” has suggested a diplomatic solution. such as the proposal that US/SK halt military maneuvers at Planting and harvest time in exchange for stopping DPRK tests. All US “experts” propose more sanctions, the threat or actual use of force. If DPRK gives in to US threats where will it stop? The US Beast will just demand more and more . Looking at Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Syria, the DPRK seems to be following a sane policy. Remember that there was an agreement in the 90s when Clinton deliberately broke its terms, because he thought DPRK would collapse shortly. Since the US constantly violates treaties, such as sanctioning Iran inspite of P+5 nuclear deal, why should DPRK or anyone trust a US diplomat?
Sadly none in MSM bring up this record or say anything reasonable about the situation. It is getting very dangerous when US thinks any country not kowtowing to its demands is a “rogue” state, when the US is the Evil empire.
There you have the problem correct. The US considers any country not under their control as an automatic enemy.Until that thinking stops there will be constant war.
Doesn’t the American bravado and chest beating get old for you?
I see you are giving us another pro-US assessment. China may not like the “fat boy” at all. But they “hate” the idea of the US dictating what sovereignty a country can have or not. And they hate even more the idea of US troops on their borders. They fought a 3 year all out war with the US over that US idea years ago. China and Russia certainly don’t “want” a war. But if the US gives them the choice of only war or kneeling ,they will almost certainly choose war.
As you imply China is all about “trade”. But giving the US the “right” to dictate trade leads directly to the US using that in the future against them. So accepting the limited pain needed to prevent that from ever happening again ,may very well be the only realistic choice available. The bi-lateral trade between the US and China is around 500 billion dollars. Out of a 16 trillion dollar Chinese economy. That would be a sad loss for China. But not an unrecoverable loss.And accepting that loss to prevent the US from dictating to them with threats to their economy may be worth it.
They can also retaliate on the US economy if need be.Besides the billions of dollars in imports from the US that would be lost to the US. They could sell the over trillion dollars in US debt they own. And de-dollarize their economy. Ending any Chinese trade based on the US dollar.That alone would be an enormous hit to the US economy. So no matter what the US may believe.China is not without strong economic weapons to wield against the US. The fact they haven’t chosen to not use them “yet”,doesn’t mean they don’t have them. Nor that they won’t use them in the future if needed.Hopefully for the US’s sake. They are aware of those facts.
China could also refuse to accept US dollars and Treasuries in exchange for the Chinese goods and services the US is totally dependent upon. What goes around, comes around.
I’d like to reply to a couple of mistakes in your comment if I may.
There are two very important aspects to yesterday’s joint Russia/China statement –
1) They said North Korea’s fears “are justified”. Whilst this may seem obvious to us, such a statement in the political world at the level of 2 presidents of superpower status carries weight and means that there is no justification for aggression against the DPRK in their opinion and they also point out they are North Korea’s neighbours. Again we know that but the message is “you will not start a war in our neighbourhood”
Plus the US poking China in the S.China sea is ensuring little love in Beijing for the crazies in Washington.
2) It is very heartening to see these two leaders issue joint statements on crises like this. I would love to see China and Russia operate even more collaboratively and “jointly” in responding to issues such as US warmongering.
Deng Xi Ping and Putin have met some 21 times in the last 4 years – on average every ten weeks. We can’t know what they discuss in private but it’s fair to guess that front and centre has to be how to deal with out-of-control rogue state USA, and how to contain it short of nuclear war.
Thus they are bound to have plans.
Of course China could dump it’s US treasuries but this would wreck their own export market which is why I think China/Russia are going hell for leather to get the OBOR going – to create new customers for China’s huge productive capacity – whilst also working collaboratively on de-dollarization.
Regarding your comments – your comment suggests you think China will throw NK to the wolves. I could not disagree more strongly.
That is a very dangerous assumption and one I hope the generals in the Pentagon, who seem to run US military policy these days – do not make.
China is alarmed of course – but now Putin is on to it as well, ahuge plus, and there are 2 superpowers opposing war on NK.
By the way you are also mistaken in two other ways in saying “China and Russia have already signaled openness to freezing North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, which is really all the United States seeks”
Firstly, North Korea is a sovereign independent country – Russia and China do not order it to do anything.
The only country that orders everybody about is the USA.
The joint Russian/ Chinese statement said NK should voluntarily freeze testing. They are trying to help a country that has no international voice and only gets insulted and miscalled and threatened continuously with annihilation
And secondly you cannot say that all the USA wants is a nuclear freeze, because how then do you explain America’s stated intention to destroy North Korea labelling it part of an “axis of evil” back in 2001 – five years before they even had a nuclear weapon? Explain that.
No, as with Iraq, they want it defenceless and then they will attack it.
The joint Russia/China approach could help create an “anti terror, anti hegemony” alliance much needed in so many theatres of US aggression, but in any case these two countries are sending a powerful message to the world’s number one bully – forget it..
Again, truth illuminates the darkness and banishes negative misconceptions.-
the United States may
or may not
kill a number of North Koreans
for this or that
or no good reason
but call North Korea
‘the volatile and unpredictable regime’
Now consider what the U.S. media don’t tell you about Korea:
BEIJING, March 8 (Xinhua) — China proposed “double suspension” to defuse the looming crisis on the Korean Peninsula, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Wednesday.
“As a first step, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) may suspend its nuclear and missile activities in exchange for the suspension of large-scale U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) military exercises,” Wang told a press conference on the sidelines of the annual session of the National People’s Congress.
Wang said the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula is mainly between the DPRK and the United States, but China, as a next-door neighbour with a lips-and-teeth relationship with the Peninsula, is indispensable to the resolution of the issue.
FM Wang, ‘the lips’, undoubtedly transmitted an authorized message from North Korea: “The offer is (still) on the table and China supports it
North Korea has made the very same offer in January 2015. The Obama administration rejected it. North Korea repeated the offer in April 2016 and the Obama administration rejected it again. This March the Chinese government conveyed and supported the long-standing North Korean offer. The U.S. government, now under the Trump administration, immediately rejected it again”.
American arrogance will be it’s nemesis but they won’t attack North Korea.
President Xi Jinping is the leader of China. Deng Xiaoping was in the 1980’s, retired in ’89.
(just to keep the record straight.)
Also, President Xi has traveled to Russia more than any other nation. Five times.
Clearly, the two leaders are coordinating closely on geopolitical issues.
What they are building together is SCO and Eurasia. They are moving the center of gravity of the planet to where four great civilizations converge and where the Western civilization is a profound outsider.
Thank you, Zena, for your comments.
The Ghost Formerly Known As Prince:
There is a whole range of economic “leverage” that can be brought to bear against North Korea, primarily directed at his sponsors and enablers.
Why are you using so many words to explain blackmail? Basically you’re suggesting a concept similar to Sippenhaft – punishment of trade partners.
I’ll remind you that Mr. Trump has long been keen on “protectionist” policies against “unfair” trading partners: In the 80’s that meant Japan, today it means China.
If China gives him the pretext he needs to do what he wants to do anyway, then so much the better.
As for China retaliating using financial instruments – refer to Mr. Trump’s follow up book “The Art of the Comeback”. Long story short, in the 1990’s Mr. Trump was able to restructure his company’s debt because his creditors would be ruined if he went under. To paraphrase, “If you owe the bank $1 million the bank owns you; if you owe the bank $100 million, you own the bank.”
Anything China might contemplate to hurt the US will also hurt China.
And Trump and Tillerson are not so crass, they will allow a face-saving way out that doesn’t involve US gloating or humiliation of the other parties (including North Korea if Kim can contain himself).
It will be a “win-win”, everybody is at least somewhat happy.
And what is this I hear, a ceasefire in Syria? Apparently Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump did accomplish at least one thing in their little meeting.
Trump is in the neocons grip, so he is sabotaging them by spreading their idiotic threats in extreme overdrive, and doin what they want in a half-assed way ?
East-Germany collapsed and was absorbed by the Western part seemingly lost to USSR/Russia and conquered if you will by the US/the West.
25 yrs later the German Chancellor is only now reluctantly admitting that Germany can no longer rely on the US and maybe, hopefully this means it will seek closer ties with Russia and Asia.
South-Vietnam collapsed and was absorbed by the Communist North seemingly lost to the US.
It took 20yrs to restore relations and today they are conducting naval exercises together aimed at China.
When China and Japan (and Russia) can find some common ground and no longer fear a unified Korea, the days of the US on the peninsula are numbered.
25 yrs later the German Chancellor is only now reluctantly admitting that Germany can no longer rely on the US …
Those delusional folks in Berlin think it’s their destiny to be the leaders of Europe. It doesn’t make any difference for average Europeans and anyone else if the delusionals are sitting in Washington or in Berlin. The result is the same.
I have just returned from a few weeks in China. I live with Chinese friends so get the ‘on the ground’ story.
There are two basic ‘camps’:
Those who are completely disinterested in political/world affairs and those who are vaguely aware but couldn’t give a rat’s bum …… “we trust our government”
I asked one of the people who is vaguely interested what they thought of the potential for nuclear war, of the potential for a nuke landing on Beijing ….. the reply was simple, “won’t happen”
The message I get from the average Chinese I meet is that they support and trust their government.
and …. yes …. tiresome …. I know there are people with different views and ideas, I am just telling you about the people I meet and mix with (也，是，我会说汉语）
I suppose the question is, “do the American people support and trust their government?”
On my return to Australia last week I noticed our media is softening us up for war ….. yikes
The talk of sanctions by the ‘nice’ people who do not want to hurt anyone if fucking ridiculous. The editorial in today’s Global Times notes that sanctions need to be targeted, not blanket. Blanket sanctions just end up killing or hurting the average person ……. but it is a ‘nice’ idea, just ask the people who lived through the American inspired sanctions in the 1990s.
Too complicated for me, I am going to huddle down here in Tasmania until it all blows over …… and I use the term ‘blows’ deliberately.
Yes, Greame, it is a great place to huddle down. Don’t know bout you, but its why I moved here.
In the 90’s I spent 8 long weeks in South Korea, working on a major industrial players R & D campus.
Given the north and south are the same people I am assuming they share national characteristics. One characteristic that stood out was a very near universal appreciation of a good martial contest. Another was a national work ethic, although I did hear mumerings abouth the “youth” being a bit soft.
I do not see the DPRK shying away from any fight that is brought to them, and the Koren national character is still close enough to the trials of the aftermath of the Korean war to have a far greater degree of resilience and tenacity than its prime antagonist.
The US is harvesting 30 years of being a rogue state and breaking treaties and international law. Why should the DPRK trust anything the US says? Sadly none of the former diplomats and “experts” on TV think it is strange that the US does not even try to negotiate, but only issues threats and demands. Carrot and stick work better, but US is all stick.
Well, Saker, I’ll be interested in your summary of the US and DPRK capabilities, but I’m not convinced or even impressed by any of the US bluster.These generals keep strutting their peacock walk but every time it comes to showdown in any theater they walk backwards, and crow louder. I can’t believe any military staff in the world has failed to notice this.
In the end, because of the artillery poised to strike Seoul, the US will back down for “humane reasons” – i.e. not wanting to shed innocent life in South Korea, yet having shown the cowardly North a thing or two. Always provide your enemy a way out when he is trapped, even if he traps himself.
But the US sure makes it hard to give it a face-saving way out. Someone made a superb comment today in another site: “The more the grandstanding the greater the loss of face.”
The US is casting away its prestige at a phenomenal rate. Trump almost seems providentially sent to help in this endeavor, in his naivety proclaiming loudly the back-room bluster of those around him. But we see no boots on the ground, no attacks from the fleet, and not even any courage in the air when a Russian escort fighter plane rotates its wings to show its weapons. The propaganda may say “Forward!” but the reality as the world watches and takes note says “Run away!”
So, how do we square what we see with what the US blusters? Which of the two things has to be unreal? Frankly, it’s almost getting boring, having the US be a fool in every moment of the day. Can this dying empire do nothing right? It’s embarrassing to watch. But not fearful. No one’s going to press the wrong button. No one’s going to go to nuclear war with Russia and China, and no one can figure a way to hurt DPRK which doesn’t produce unacceptable results for the US and the world.
I look forward to your appraisal of any action the US can take that won’t result in more harm to itself than to DPRK. I’m prepared for this to be a short list ;)
Much depends on Hamburg tomorrow.
Not a chance that Trump will be allowed to start this war. He’s demanded a plan and all we have so far is bluster from some peripheral military and talking heads.
The bet is the US can take out all of NK military aimed at Seoul.
Losing Seoul means the economy of the US and Japan are crippled for several years. Probably, the global economy will plunge into deep recession/depression.
And there will be a joint China-Russia threat of nuclear use if the US and Australia are set for war against North Korea. There is no way that they will stand idle with a full blown 21st Century war brought to their border, both areas critical technological and energy resource zones.
First, it will be an unsanctioned war. The UN SC will not approve a war. Double veto by China and Russia.
Second, it is delusional to think that NK will be struck without launching a blitz on the South, Japan and US bases in Okinawa and Guam.
Knowing how the US organizes and launches its “wars”, it seems likely, the NKoreans will have plenty of time to strike very hard.
But Putin may be able to get through to Trump in the one hour meeting that war is not an option.
Nothing will happen. Ivanka Trump’s twitter doesn’t speak of “outrage” and the fake news isn’t pushing any “dead babies” stories.
North Korea is a buffer state, both sides know it. Strategically, the only avenue of ground invasion via South Korea if war with China/Russia starts. There is little doubt that North Korea stands to gain zero profit from upsetting the current balance or status quo … it risks intervention from both sides, neither results will favor North Korea.
Also, North Korea is in no position of strength to act unilaterally and declare war by firing its nuke at Japan/South Korea, the US, China/Russia or anywhere else. It’s mutually assured destruction at worst, another Iraq at best. Since Asians generally have long memories, the Koreans (as a whole) would be conceding the moral high-ground and be stigmatized for generations. There won’t be any distinction between North or South, all Koreans will carry the same stigma.
Now, if someone is trying very hard to upset the balance, we all know who that is (let’s a call a spade a spade), all you have to do is keep provoking North Korea. Drop a few sanctions, a little sabotage here and there, run a few assassinations (where applicable), put attack fleets nears its borders on some pretext, falsely frame it for some “evil” deeds …. and the list is endless.
Bottomline, they cannot touch North Korea until the moral high-ground has been achieved.
The rest are just noise.
Saker , I found a welcome crack in the “Matrix” in your publishing :-) Obviously The Neocons (anglo zionists, MIC) have captured the Sword Dancer . I’m encouraged to find critical thinking is here and available to counter the anglo/zionist propaganda and Puppeting of Trump . He is a locust shell devoid of any values except $ values . Russia and China are capable of 4d chess yet trump is ignorant of the value and movement of the pieces . N K is Chinese Puppetry and there is a time . Not now .
A few pentagon nuts -after this finger showing by fat boy – are saying : we cant stand this! Let´s bomb a and nuke them with tactical nukes next week!.
A few other capitolium guys agree. ” exceptional nations down bend down like wind flown umbrellas.”
A dozen others medal ornated chests say: we can t do that, no way to sell off the south koreans!
What will say the potus?
What if Putin placed S 400-S 300 defenses in North Korea in order to establish a calm over the Peninsula and create a process of dialogue?
Using a combined force of Chinese and Russian troops for the installation, it would be welcomed by all except the US.
Just thinking of what surprise Putin may have up his sleeve . . .
If the S300’s and S400’s could not get the Syrian Government sovereignty of Syrian skies, how and why will they benefit NK in any way? Seems to me these systems are part bluff, part militarily useful in a limited way, the operative word being limited. I am no military expert but I do like to use my eyes and common sense.
they are the currently best AA systems in the world, in all likelihood (and I have a technical background and have read a lot on the topic). simply speaking, if it was decided by the Latakia base command to enforce a no-fly zone over Syria, they could shoot down all American or otherwise hostile planes over most of Syria within 15 minutes, and there would be nothing the US could do about it. the point is that even the best AA system in the world doesn’t mean much if you don’t use it (because using it means essentially a prelude to WW3).
in the North Korean case, it’s just unnecessary. NK has far bigger deterrents. the US will never attack it (unless perhaps someone completely crazy like McCain is elected). Trump very predictably made a typical grandstand and then equally predictably deflated like a balloon after Kim poked some holes into his grandstanding with a barrage of BM launches.
North Korea is another convenient propaganda tool of the anglo/zionist MSM – distraction after distraction. No one is going to invade North Korea – certainly not the vassal tools in the South and even less so the US.
An ICBM for North Korea is symbolic but not very effective – other than as a retaliatory strike option against a US city or base if nukes are used against Pyongyang.
Far more effective are the medium range missiles that the North possesses – just like Iran and Hezbollah this is the key to their defense. That combined with longer range artillery and ground forces it would make any US action extremely costly.
North Korea has friends in both Russia and China and both nations would provide military data on the US forces. The Pentagon knows all of this and has no delusions of the whopping they would get.
Also what is the gain for the US – certainly not victory. The gain for the US is in the bluster and showboating that keeps the public confused and the military contracts rolling. A hot war against North Korea would cause chaos in the political class of imbeciles in the US. Ultimately – like in Syria that is what the anglo/zionists want. However, there are other forces within the US that do not take the doomsday barbecue to heart.
Collapse of authority.
Hubris, Humiliation, Horror.
The great harlot has begun her descent.
Fat boy confused and outsmarted his enemies, he looks clever.
Don is about to loose his temper over this outcome.
The Saker once asked who will put the knife into the empire ?
Me just wonder who will get beaten up to unload the rage of humiliation.
Who is the easy target to teach the lesson ?
Particular valley in Lebanon gets bombed out into the stone age ?
No easy targets left around for Don to score a quick victory and shine.
Is this a peak of empire or will Don double down again ?
how do you restrain a raging elephant in the porcelain store ?
One might think that South Korea would do everything in its power to prevent a war from beginning. I suppose the same could be said for the US vassal states in the EU, too . . . but I think there is a significant difference here both politically and militarily. Seoul would be hit with massive artillery barrages. The North could block invasion fleets with its nukes. It would be a bloodbath . . .
Russia and China share land borders with North Korea.
Any military miscalculation by the US vis-a-vis the DPRK has the potential to impact both of these countries directly, yet arrogance and hubris prevent the US from listening to the counsel of either of them.
Inexperience mixed with arrogance saw Trump needlessly ratchet up tensions on the peninsula.
He deployed THAADS, he sent Aircraft Carriers, he staged wargames and during this time he also lobbed cruise missiles at Syria and dropped the MOAB on Afghanistan.
Yet did he manage to intimidate Kim?
No, he did not.
Kim has called his bluff, and now the US runs the risk of losing-face big time.
North Korea is not Iraq, Libya or Syria. They have the demonstrated ability to project massive violence onto the doorsteps of the US and its allies.
The US has gotten so used to beating up on countries that cant fight back that when it encounters one that can it doesnt know what to do.
The little whats left of American prestige now hangs in the balance.
Trump had better hope that Russia and China can come up with a face-saving solution to all this.
But Russia and China must also bear in mind that North Korea has legitimate concerns that must be taken into consideration in devising a solution to the crusis.
I agree. Kim isn’t an idiot and has very good advisers. Trump is naked as a clown.
Imagine if China or Russia were bomb Mexico back into the stone age. The American elites would not be happy about a major war on the southern border. Why then, would China allow the USA to invade North Korea. The MIC is looking for a reason to justify its existence.
Too many countries are beginning to stop using the dollar in international trade. How would the Anglo-American elites force everyone to keep using the dollar? The USA cannot invade every country. If the USA goes to war against North Korea, China will dump all of its dollars.
The Anglo-American elites will not allow the American people to think about domestic problems.
Anti-North Korean rhetoric is a silly way to misdirect the American public. As a bonus, a major war could erase trillions in foreign debt and stimulate the US economy.
empty threats are futile…you will get defeated!
I don’t see President Trump delivering on his threats against North Korea. He was not going to do it in January and certainly not now after Tsar Vladimir Putin and Mandarin Xi Jinping have agreed to hold a common postion on the issue. I just hope that tomorrow President Putin could make Trump understand that the clock is ticking and if he wants to have Russia and China to work with him in a number os issues in a constructive way, the time is now; before he becomes a lame duck for the Neocons and be replaced by Pence. Of course, the US can launch a missile attack on NK facilities and the beg to China and Russia to help him get out of a sorry ass mess.
I now have a really horrible feeling that the US will conduct a “surgical strike” on the DPRK.
The Russia/China factor means the US will try to keep them out of the picture by claiming this is a proportionate response aimed only at destroying NK’s nuclear weapons.
“Surgical Strike” sounds” almost harmless almost medical and therapeutic and is typical westspeak for mass murder.
Therefore a few thousand dead maybe and surely not worth Russia/China risking global conflict over they will figure.
I think this because I read that all the options put before Trump involve military action.
“National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster insisting that all of the options prepared for Trump involve a military component.”
There is no such thing as a little bit of war. The DPRK will fight for its survival and of course give them everything they’ve got.
I hope I am wrong but I also see that only 24 hours after the Russia/China joint proposal for de-escalation, the US has already dismissed it.
Plus the US has painted itself into a corner, to them it’s either look tough or be humiliated. God – I hope I am drawing the wrong conclusions here.
Convince me I’ve got it wrong – please.
“Convince me I’ve got it wrong – please.”
Why should we? Take a cold bath, stay off the internet and fall in love !
There are deep political currents in the ICBM vs ABM world, of course. But the irony is that the above will be near-to-useless where it matters: Seoul. And for what is important: Artillery.
In very round numbers: NK is guessed to have around 10,000 carefully-hidden (back-slopes of hills) artillery pieces within range of Seoul. These are probably 5 rounds per minute guns, so the initial firing-rate is around 50,000 rounds per minute. Estimate that each has an on-site shell magazine of 500 rounds. That is 5,000,000 shells.
Counterfire artillery is probably useless, considering that NK artillery is on reverse slopes of hills. That leaves aircraft. Say SK and US can put up 350 aircraft on short notice, carrying an average of 6 missiles/bombs per aircraft. That is around 2,000 targets destroyed per group-sortie. (Given that two missiles/bombs are usually dropped on a given target to ensure destruction, that is likely-closer to 1,000 targets destroyed per group-sortie.)
So, say it takes five minutes to get to the artillery (more likely, it’s twenty minutes average). NK artillery has already lobbed 250,000 rounds into Seoul. Say you take-out 1,500 artillery pieces total with all the sortied aircraft. That leaves 8,500 artillery pieces still firing at 5 rounds/minute.
Give a generous twenty-minute turnaround time for the average aircraft to get back to the artillery (more likely 40-60 minutes). 8,500 artillery pieces have been firing for twenty minutes at 5 rounds/minute. That’s another 850,000 rounds into Seoul.
Say you takeout another 1,500 artillery pieces total with all the sortied aircraft. That still leaves 7,000 artillery pieces steadily firing at 5 rounds/minute.
Given another generous twenty-minute turnaround time for the average aircraft to get back to the artillery, 7,000 artillery pieces have been firing for twenty minutes at 5 rounds/minute. That’s another 700,000 rounds into Seoul.
Say you takeout 1,500 artillery pieces again with all the sortied aircraft. That leaves 5,500 artillery pieces still firing at 5 rounds/minute.
Give a generous twenty-minute turnaround time for the average aircraft to get back to the artillery. 5,500 artillery pieces have been firing for twenty minutes at 5 rounds/minute. That’s another 550,000 rounds into Seoul.
Say you takeout 1,500 artillery pieces total with all the sortied aircraft. That leaves 4,000 artillery pieces still firing at 5 rounds/minute.
Give a generous twenty-minute turnaround time for the average aircraft to get back to the artillery. 4,000 artillery pieces have been firing for twenty minutes at 5 rounds/minute. That’s another 400,000 rounds into Seoul.
Somewhere around three group-sorties in, the NK artillery has run out of ammunition. 3,000-4,000 artillery pieces are left. Seoul-area has been hit with 3,000,000-4,000,000 shells. It doesn’t exist. And the NK armies have yet to move out.
Oh, and 2X US missiles out of Alaska will have countered X NK rockets…
“In very round numbers: NK is guessed to have around 10,000 carefully-hidden (back-slopes of hills) artillery pieces within range of Seoul.”
That’s exactly how the French army got mauled in 1954 at Dien Bien Phu…
though war is bad but if I am Russia the biggest country in the world and I know that other guys look at me jealously because of my values and wealth and want to grab them if not today then tomorrow then I will like to have that guy get perpetually engaged in other useless stuff like locking horns with North Korea (guy) and once the horns are locked I will make sure that North Korea teaches them a lesson. I am just saving my(Russia) own ass.
Consider yesterday at the UNSC.
The Russians blocked (without a vote) any possible use of the UN and “sanctions” with military response, similar to the infamous “No Fly” resolution in Libya. The words of the intended US resolution was to authorize an international response, led by the Hegemon.
China didn’t have to veto it, nor did Russia. The mere challenge to the meme that the missile was an ICBM stopped the proposed resolution. Haley tried to insult the Russian ambassador that “all the experts”, even NK, declared it was an ICBM. But for those of us who saw Soviet rockets lead the human race into Space, we laugh at Haley and the experts. Russians know rockets. And the trajectory and performance data was closest to Russia and its tracking systems.
Russia, yesterday, was masterful. No vetoes. No proposal. And the only proposed course of action is dialogue, which is what China’s ideas and Russia’s plan is all about. The US quickly killed the idea for the moment. But it will return. The option left is war.
And the US has no authority for war. It actually has no ally for war. It is dragooning South Korea into its war plan. But President Moon wants none of it. He doesn’t want the THAAD systems on his land. He wants dialogue.
What may happen shortly is Putin and Xi will find the “honey” needed for Kim to start a process of building a dialogue with the South, through the Russians and Chinese. Trump will have to tone down his bluster. The US military will have to stand down.
The real facts, like the science of rocket flight, are immutable. There can be no war in Korea without the US losing South Korea. We won’t even go into what else they will lose. But if the might of the US means anything, it clearly means it can only win a naval war on the planet. It is built for that and no other kind of war. In other words, if Japan attacked Pearl Harbor again, they’d lose big time. Beyond naval wars, the US is pathetic. It seeks out small, third world regimes, and wages horror shows of death and chaos upon their citizens and infrastructure. They “kill and break things”, as they like to brag.
Well, North Korea, Russia and China are a war too large, too land-based, too coordinated for the US, its Pacific allies and NATO allies, and willing patsies, to take on.
The North Korean Order of Battle is prolific.
The North Korean strategic goal is to inflict massive destruction on life and property in and near Seoul and across the DMZ. This they can do fairly swiftly. In less than an hour of warfare, South Korea will be traumatized for 25 years. It does not matter what hits North Korea. By hour 2 and 3, Busan and other major centers of industry and population will be destroyed.
The calculus is that elementary. A MAD doctrine in kinetic weapons. Attack the North and the South dies.
Fail to seriously cripple them with that massive first strike of the US, and there will be a war that will consume a good proportion of the US troops in the South. Trump will be welcoming back thousands of caskets. And he will have a POW problem that will be immense. North Korea has 100,000 special forces who train to take prisoners back to the North. Hostage situations will appear all over the urban and rural landscape of the Peninsula.
All the leverage is with Pyongyang.
Read this history of the Korean War and you will understand why North Korea was never defeated.
“This Kind of War” is the blueprint of the death of the Hegemon in Asia Pacific.
Only the Americans don’t know it, nor do the Military ever refer to it.
If they had, Vietnam would never have happened. And all the rest, too.
But, L445, the closet homosexual skinhead national security advisor, with the nose, claims he could have won the Vietnam aggressive war crime (I’ve forgot the turd’s name atm), vapourising NK will be a “piece of cake” in those delusional zionazi minds, especially since they view their american colony as an endless supply of well indoctrinated cattle.
Grounded analysis on your part.
McMaster. Three-star, tank commander in Gulf War I. Killed a bunch of tanks driven by amateurs in Iraq army. Shooting ducks in a barrel. Now considered Ike’s equal in strategy when all he knows is MOAB.
You are probably correct. They would have fought Vietnam no matter.
It looked so easy. Little brown people with floppy sandals. Pushovers.
After the battle at Dien Bien Phu they should have realized how determined and organized the Viet Cong were, but probably thought such could only happen to the French. OTOH, my guess is that they knew very well but liked the idea of prolonged war and its benefits for the MIC and their own deep pockets.
The yellow press (ie, all the press) in lap-dog Australia is playing up the NK threat, so there’s an ally with a track record of blindly following US into an ill-advised aggression.
There’s also a domestic political power struggle in AU so the govt welcomes the external distraction, it makes the right look appropriately tough to the far right.
“… Haley tried to insult the Russian ambassador that “all the experts”, even NK, declared it was an ICBM.”
Too funny, prank of the day !
Thanks Larch445 again for another good and interesting analysis.
It seems the new Sth Korean President is doubling down:
“The United States, South Korea and Japan will press for prompt adoption of a new resolution by the UN Security Council that would impose additional sanctions on North Korea, the leaders of the three nations said in a joint statement released by the White House on Friday……”
So the WH thinks by getting the Sth Koreans and Japan to back their resolution should do it. Even though China and Russia have put forward a plan – I know these countries are occupied but they aren’t doing themselves any favours.
It seems whilst the Trump/Putin meeting goes on in Hamburg – the WH releases this statement and also another one that a John McCain/ex NATO stooge is taking over the Ukraine project.
Looks like Moon says the right things at meeting with VVP – but actions speak louder than words. (What poison did Obama drip into his ear before the G20?):
And the US keeps ratcheting up the tension with new THAAD tests:
Also US bombers fly over Sth Korea – the US seems hell bent on doing the opposite to deescalation and Sth Korea is allowing it
Meanwhile Putin and Japan discuss their relations:
These Korean ballistic missiles are prime target for American anti-missiles. It’s as if they’ve been designed for the task of shooting down the outdated , low in numbers Korean nukes to demonstrate to the world “mighty” American missile defense , which would not stand against a real , in quantity and quality, adversary such as Russia, but would likely intercept the Korean toys. It’s as if Trump is itching for the Koreans to launch some at the US to show off the American anti-missiles in action…the masses will buy it not knowing the full truth about American missile defense being a joke good only for a few old-style ballistic missiles.
The death of sea life in the Pacific Ocean west of the US should provide a pretty clear example of the result of the prevailing winds and currents carrying radeonucleotides from Asia, doesn’t the prospect of tons of plutonium dust from intercepted warheads alarm the strategists?
Who will do the work for the bunkered elite?
Look, we generally know who the big globalists are. These people and their underlings have no specific national allegiances and directly undermine sovereignty and democracy towards their globalist nightmare endgame.
Why don’t elements of Putin’s Russia, anti-globalists in US and NATO countries and all other officials that like seeing the sun rise and having families and stability and peace on earth rise up and overthrow and jail and drone strike the key globalists? I mean, what more information do we need? We should all realize by now that the globalists world vision involves more slavery, more war, a permanent state of emergency, enforcement of anti-family social programs, etc. Who really wants this? Why would they want this? So a handful of inbred and insane humans can decide how the rest of us live and trade and what we are allowed to worship? Like nobody wants this or really thinks it is a good idea. It is time to simply overthrow them. I hope this plan is in the works. I don’t see what is so difficult about making it happen. They rely on us..not the other way around.
My idea, take out the globalist slave drivers and their minions.
What would Ivanka do ?
With a little help from China there will be some aktion according to that man from St. Eggmark…
I suspect that the collective attention span of the US public is short enough for Trump to get way with not having to do anything to back up his threat. Even the neoconservatives are not really serious about war with North Korea. After all that would involve a difficult land war against an enemy stronger than anyone the USA has tangled with since the end of the Cold War (one that even the Israeli press warns the USA against engaging in) and, even if the USA prevails after tens of thousands of casualties of its own, it is likely to find itself in a land war with China since, chances are, there will be no deal in place about the post-DPRK Korean peninsula’s strategic orientation between the USA and China.
So it’ll travel over 5 hours to reach the west coast of the US? … Interesting five hours to watch!
I think Kim is proving to be a gutsy guy, far more than most people probably thought possible. I also think that China and Russia finally stepped up to the plate and pushed, jointly, for a sensible solution re. NK and SK that addresses real concerns on both sides. This may have been too little too late though, as I think Trump is feeling increasing pressure to do something, to follow up on endless threats, somewhere in the world, probably in North Korea. Such an outcome may be forestalled by the ridiculous concessions Putin will make today at the g-20. Today, I think, the carve-up of Syria will begin in earnest. As for NK, given enough time, I think the US will arrange a coup. Today’s concessions from Putin re. Syria will likely give Trump that time.
Count on it. Russia will make major concessions today. It will amount to surrender. Then it is only a matter of time for Kim’s head to find it’s way onto a US spear, alongside Assad’s head, thanks to some some or other power hungry North Koreans around Kim.
The only force that can really stop the Hegemon is Truth and Justice. Putin and Xi COULD have this force on their side, but they are raging pragmatists. Pragmatism is good to a point, but when a guy like Putin plays buddy buddy games with the likes of Netanyahu and the rulers of Indonesia, he obviously sees no value at all in Justice or Truth. As for Xi, a man who can very pleasantly swallow the massive insult he got served by Trump alongside ‘beautiful’ chocolate cake has no clue about or interest in Truth and Justice.
Trump is a bit of a dark genius. I think he learned from his mafia pals in NYC that nothing greases the wheels for lucrative deals like mad threats.
What a silly comment of yours. Why would Putin in his first meeting with Trump that will barely last 30 minutes make major concessions on Syria to the US? Neither is he desperate for sanctions to be lifted nor does he need the US recognising Crimea as part of Russia. Do you know the difference between ‘de facto’ and ‘de jure’? I recommend you look it up. And as the US doesn’t care about international law why bother about ‘de jure’.
The Saker took a long time to explain exactly why Putin needn’t make any concessions at all, what’s more he’s not even in a position to decide alone, as Iran, Turkey and a lot of other actors have a say in what happens in Syria. If you are frequenting this site why don’t you take your time and read about it before you start making random claims on what’s going to happen. It’s really quite tiring to read about these bold statements of how Putin is about to hand over everything he worked for on a silver platter to the US for no sensical reason whatsoever but well…he’s still going to do it.
I don’t see how you can dismiss Paul’s comment as silly so casually. There are two assessments of Russia/Putin’s strengths and merits, one being that Putin/Russians are master strategists, strong and fair, who stand for good, truth, and justice. The other is that the Russians/Putin are significantly weaker than the US/West and will put up a fight only if absolute survival is at stake and at the last possible hour. Only time will tell which of the two assessments has been the correct one. Name-calling doesn’t cut it in logical discussions.
In the meantime, per the second viewpoint, Russian policy and actions will be based on an abundance of caution, willingness to go on conceding, and sweet talk from all Russian governmental sources on all fronts and all the time. A weak player’s best defense is to keep pulling back and even walk out of the ring if it looks like knockout blows may be coming. Survival triumphs over victory for a rational and sane player. So, it would hardly be surprising if Russia was to make major concessions over Syria to their “American partners”.
Didn’t notice any ‘Name-calling’ there. And No, a weaker ‘player’ doesn’t walk out of the ring and gives up, ever. A weaker player uses his brain as a superior weapon and comes up with the unexpected. Example, in judo that could be the use of sutemi. If in our eyes VVP will seem to concede it will be at no value or at later loss to the criminal coalition.
I dont think you understand the asian concept of ‘face’.
I dont think Drumph should expect a red carpet in Beijing, if he is even envited.
The first reports of the missile launch came from the SK military and they said it was an intermediate range missile. Then US military agreed. Then they said they were looking closely at the data, and eventually decided it was an ICBM, and achieved an apogee (max height) of 2,802 Km, and traveled a distance of 933 Km. Then came the Russian analysis -an intermediate range missile with an apogee of 510 Km. 2,802Km v. 510Km, that’s a very big difference.
Why would the Russians give incorrect, low figures or the US give incorrect, high figures?
Well in the case of the US, it makes a final resolution of the issue MUCH more urgent, and you know how much the President likes appear decisive and strong. They have two aircraft carrier groups on station, with a third on the way (less one destroyer out of action after it accidently bumped into a container ship while on active duty). They must be burning through a lot of fuel and over-time out there. Everybody MUST get behind the President NOW! Let’s get this over with and demonstrate we can’t be pushed around.
So the fat boy with the funny haircut, inexperienced (6 years) and unpredictable is to be taken on by the fat man with the funny toupe, inexperienced (6 months) and unpredictable over a False Flag missile trajectory.
Don’t forget that while all eyes are looking skyward at the next missile launch, a short-range submarine-launched missile could take out the THAAD installation from the south, while another takes out PACOM on Oahu. An attack that will live on in infamy.
Missile launches and atomic tests prove many things, some have major implications that may not be immediately obvious.
What is important is this fact – the NK State now presides over an industrial economy that, like the US missile program in the 1960’s, is leading (at great cost) to an explosion of wealth and power for NK – just as it did and has done for every organization that does tough engineering and science. NK is prosperous and optimistic about their future. If race counts, in the sense of national character (and I submit that it does) then account too for the famous Korean toughness. Do not fight guys like these…so I’d advise, and I know.
That economic fact, the powerful scientific literacy and machine base, the educated class that’s doing the serious intellectual work – that fact is “destabilizing”. It is. All change creates “destabilization”.
Now then, who benefits from this? Any losers? Any party that might desire to interfere with this emerging “Asian Powerhouse”?
Perhaps a wealthy and powerful North Korea might make the occupation of Okinawa untenable, in the fullness of time…
Indeed, it seems that the imperative in geopolitics is “kinetic”, while the consequences of smashing NK may be ignored. Does an empire have an alternative other than risking the “blow-back”?
Sorry to say that I do expect the smashing will be attempted…
And a major distraction in the Syrian “theater”…
The US is beating the drum for war, the South Koreans and Japanese sweat with fear, the North Koreans aren’t helping with missile tests and provocative statements… and yet no war will happen there.
The US doesn’t want war, they want the appearance of preparation for one to intimidate and strike fear. That’s why they are constantly holding military drills with such non-threatening names like “Decapitation” a few dozen kilometres off the coast of North Korea. I should add that they are doing it in violation of international law, it’s illegal to threaten another nation with military conflict under the UN charter, but as should be clear to everyone by now, the US is a rogue state which disregards international law. Remember the meeting of all senators in the US a few months ago? Some people thought this surely means war, if all of them are in a room together – which was the goal. In reality, it took them longer to get there than the meeting actually lasted. It was a show, a blatant and in my view, quite pathetic bluff. With excellent Hollywood script writers running around, you’d think they’d be able to come up with a better play.
As for the South Koreans and Japanese, they clearly don’t want war. North Korea also doesn’t want war, they would never conduct a first strike, that’s suicide and they know it. All the missile tests, the tough talk and threats are gorilla style chest beating on an international scale, as a means of deterrence. Don’t dare to attack us, we have the means to defend ourselves is the message they are sending. They also saw what happened to Iraq and Libya. Gaddafi giving up his weapons led to his ultimate demise, which means that North Korea will never, ever, not in a million years submit to Washington’s demands of halting their weapons development.
The US needs North Korea to exist, to be an adversary. They need a hornets nest in that region to kick it once in a while, to stir up trouble as a reminder to their unsinkable aircraft carriers of Japan and South Korea, that US soldiers and military hardware are there to stay. After former president Park stepped down, the US saw a brief window to sneak in their THAAD missiles into South Korea, before the new president is in office. They knew he would oppose this as he actually does want to resolve the conflict, which is still technically an active war since 1953, it has been a mere seize-fire agreement, albeit a stable one which held for decades. The icing on the cake was when Trump tried to extort money from the South Koreans to pay for the THAAD deployment.
In short, North Korea is the justification the US needs and uses to amass troops, military hardware and bases in the region. Without North Korea, there isn’t much that justifies US presence there. The real reason, as usual, has nothing to do with North Korea, it’s about China and Russia. The US has been pursuing a, in my opinion ultimately futile strategy of encircling China and Russia with military bases and anti-missile deployments. This will ultimately fail, but they are trying regardless. The goal is to, at some point, have so many bases that China and Russia have nowhere left to go, no means of direct attack far outside of their own territory in spite of their ICBM capabilities. The US hopes to force them into submission by creating an insurmountable military force on their borders, which would end in disastrous defeat in a potential hot conflict for Russia and China, but not for the US, they think the threat alone will force them to submit to US hegemony without conflict. However it will not work for various reasons, one of which is that I give the US 10 years of remaining an empire, and that’s with all the generosity I can muster, it will most likely collapse earlier than that. The looming financial crisis will cripple the entire western financial system which the US will not survive. They are already losing influence and control in many parts of the globe while still having the means to enforce it.
The US ultimately has the power to resolve the conflict, not military power, not diplomacy, the US is an imbecile when it comes to diplomacy. They can resolve it because they are the cause of the continuation of the conflict, without them, it would’ve been resolved decades ago one way or another. Their silly preconditions, ridiculous and arrogant demands are what’s inhibiting a resolution.
In a few weeks or months it will all calm down again and we can look forward to another spike in tensions next year.
Very rational analysis.
We see them talk of PATO, another Article 5 alliance they hope to impose on the Asia Pacific.
However one looks at the Korean Peninsula, the time now is when China and Russia have to beat the Hegemon at this game.
In Syria, Russia beat the Hegemon with Military intervention.
In Korea, Russia and China have to use other tools of multi-polar power.
One of the advantages in their favor is no resident in Asia Pacific wants war on the Peninsula, except the outsider who thirsts to ejaculate its death projectiles on Asians. So, even Japan will side with them on diplomacy and dialogue.
Hotel security where Putin is staying in Hamburg have been assaulted…may have been cover for something more serious…i pray things stay cool. http://tass.com/world/955178
Assume the Americans will start a war, first somewhere, then everywhere. Their business is war, and they are unceasingly about their business. This will never, ever stop. People can blame this on Washington, the Deep State, the MIC, the Beltway consensus, anyone but the American citizenry, but a competent and capable polity would be making the necessary corrections by now. Give up on that happening.
Some people want to give Trump a pass on that @sslicker of a Polish speech. Consider the names of the buttons Trump was pushing there. Maybe someone else wrote it, but he himself seemed happy to mouth it. Point is, you never know who speaks for America. You never know who among them you can trust. That gives the same result as being able to trust no one.
Declare the Americans unfit for any process of negotiation. Though extremely difficult, to the extent possible, refuse to acknowledge any role for America anywhere. Look at the hissy fit elicited by their apparent exclusion from Astana. Exceptionalists hate being treated as ordinaries. Any official involvement on their part enables predictable unilateral projections from within multilateral associations. They will do what they do, but this is their cover. A dog is more likely to shit on your lawn when accompanied, than when alone.
Continue preparing for the worst. There is no way to avoid war once one side alone is committed to bringing it about. There is just no way. If nothing else, the warmakers create an environment of tension and fragility, not hoping, but counting on someone making an error which sets it all off. When a nation thinks war is inevitable, or at least that war makes a fine solution, they simply stop listening to details. That is present-day America, where the option of war is never taken off the table. Therefore it was never an option. No other table is set.
I have heard descriptions of the US as a “loser” in the Syrian theater, for instance. I think that is premature. America may not win wars, but it wins by warring. As long as blow the winds of war, you may know that America is still winning. This is not a tactical or technology-based triumph. It is a way of winning by trending. It is only made possible by persistent love for America, where none is deserved. All should reconsider their irrational exuberance for America.
I think the only goal of Kim is to survive. It’s even unclear whether he is really the man taking the decisions.
Which doesn’t mean that the DPRK is a brutal dictatorship. Don’t get fooled by images of Pyongyang, only party members are allowed to live there. Starvation is common on the countryside, Prison camps all over the place.
Slave labor, even abroad is also common. See for yourself how NK slave workers are even used in Europe: https://news.vice.com/article/cash-for-kim-how-north-koreans-are-working-themselves-to-death-in-europe
The DPRK is kept alive by China. They need a buffer state.
Let’s also not forget that SK and NK technically still are at war. And, NK started the war in 1950. First a peace treaty is needed.
I’ve read rumours that the USA is preparing some surgical strike with neutron bombs. I don’t see the use of it, because it will just kill people. NK has learned from the war in the 50s, all their important installations are deep underground. Try to hit that.
«War in the Balkans» – the Memoirs of a Portugese Peacekeeper (I) https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/07/07/war-balkans-memoirs-portugese-peacekeeper-i.html
Not sure the information Trump is getting is correct. Global Research in Canada said:
“On Tuesday, the DPRK conducted its latest ballistic missile test. Secretary of State Tillerson lied, calling it an ICBM launch, “represent(ing) a new escalation of the threat to the United States, our allies and partners, the region, and the world.” (Stephen Lendman)”
The Bitter Fruit of False “Empty” is the title. Mod Threats.
Interesting title, as it would seem to apply rather well to both sides.
Which side is making the ‘false threats’. My analysis would be to answer “both”.
North Korea screams a lot about nukes and missiles, but barely shows the ability to do either and actually putting the two together is probably harder than it looks. If many of their controlled nuke tests fail or fissile, then putting the nuke on top of a rocket, subjecting it to large forces and vibrations, is unlikely to improve the chances of it working.
The US countered with one of their sham missile-defense tests, which amazingly enough they claim it actually worked. Most seem to fail, so many that they no longer seem to publisize the tests the way they used to. Seems like the next one after the one they publicized did fail.
And of course its a nearly equal battle between Kim’s threatening boasts versus Trump’s Threatening Tweets.
So, it the battle of false threats, what happens? Overall, probably nothing. Because neither side can do what they threaten to do. If Kim tries to follow through, he starts a war he can’t win. North Korea would be a tougher fight than anything the US military has seen lately. But in the end, North Korea would be going down, just from attrition if for no other reason, and Kim gets to decide if he wants the fate of Hitler or of Saddam? And if Trump follows through on his threats, he starts a long and costly war. Many would die, and the US would have to fight a tough war with lots of casualties in a place where it really gains them little or nothing to win. Even if the result is a united South Korea, well that doesn’t do the US any strategic good, and rebuilding and even feeding the North would be an expensive problem for a generation.
Maybe someone will make a Trump vs Kim wrestling meme and settle the whole thing that way.
> NK started the war in 1950
This is much too simplistic.
There was a complicated mixture of factors that led to open war (it’s never the simplistic one sentence bromides school textbooks peddle to students.)
One might say that the real beginning of the war, or at least the point at which war became inevitable, was when a major rebellion broke out in South Korea against Syngman Rhee and his army of thugs, many of whom were known to have collaborated with the Japanese.
“China, Russia, and U.S. sign a military security agreement to protect
North Korea and South Korea from attack
for 100 years, in return for North Korea suspending its ICBM and nuclear weapons programs and allowing inspectors to confirm they are sticking to the deal.”
Good try, except it isn’t a win-win … lol.
The US gets what it wants for free, China and Russia gets trapped into a commitment .. which if they break for some reason whatsoever, the mainstream media will spin it to no ends. Thus, what you get there is the moral high-ground the US & stooges needs to start the war, under the guise of honoring the agreeement.
Morever, North Koreans would NEVER abandon their only means of deterrent for 100 years of guarantee – worth exactly nothing. It’s like asking the foxes to guard the hen house and trusting them to keep their word with no means of leverage.
Evenmore, the lolworthy part is, the US has a history of breaking agreements unilaterally. A matter of when they see fit to do it, not a matter of if. Any country with pragmatic leadership not under heavy influence from hegemon knows it cannot deal with bullies and expect them to keep their word.
No starker contrast exists between Satanist death cult USA and it’s morality-free psychopathic regime and the positive approach of Russia’s brilliant leadership, than Putin’s suggestion for bringing the 2 sides together in Korea with the “carrot” of increased peace ad prosperity.
He is a fully-human being. The US has nothing to offer humanity.
“Pipeline of peace. How Russian Gas Could Soothe Tensions in the Koreans peninsula”
Let’s hope it bears fruit.
What i see on the proposed theme is that NKorea feels dangerouly threatened by the US and by extension, by the west. It is a secondary item, a non issue whether the fatty guy is Nuts, or a Don quijote of 2nd rate. He rules a united and long bleeding country.
He has already a big degree of dissuasion weapons, top of it, their Geography
and the distances between both Capitals and the famous border of 1953. His dissuasion is foremost guaranteed vs a us attack: pure flag showing propaganda.
But has still to painfully walk the rest of the way – they are half way- in terms of missiles and nuclear payloads.
And the ridiculous US ”pressure” towards China and russia to convince NK
is a smoke curtain again: wasghington knows that neither will squeeze
or deter Pyongyang at ANY PRICE. Of course not: a mild combination of conditional pressure and diplomacy by Beijing and Moscow and that´s all.