by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker blog

I have deliberated for some time before deciding to write a Saker article about the COVID-19 outbreak. Firstly, because this is not a forum to write about such issues, and secondly because I am not a medic. But given that this is all that people want to talk and hear about right now, given that COVID-19 articles have already been published on The Saker, I might as well have my say. After all, technically-speaking, I am a scientist, albeit not a medical one.

Before writing this, I have exchanged thoughts and listened to the advice of many friends in the medical profession. As a conclusion, to try to understand what is going on, if we ever can, I feel that we perhaps need to dissect the unprecedented lockdown situation that humanity is facing for the first time in its history; beginning with the nature of the virus itself.

The Virus:

As far as I know, these are the dangerous aspects of COVID-19:
1. It is highly contagious.

2. It causes a vicious infection that requires ICU support.
3. It is potentially lethal.

As far as I know as well, these are the ‘not so bad news’:
1. It is not airborne.
2. It has a very low mortality rate.

If there is more to say about the above, the world leaders will have to come clean and provide more information.

For COVID-19 to become a serious danger, the likes of such that the whole world is shutting down for, it will have to undergo two mutations:

a. It has to become airborne i.e. become transmitted by wind rather than person to person contact, and;

b. It has to become more virulent.

Whilst it is true that those mutations can happen, as far as we are told, they haven’t, at least not yet. Equally, they can happen to any known or unknown virus.

Genetic mutations happen randomly within all living things including viruses. But because viruses have very little genetic material (DNA/RNA) and a very high replication rate, mutations can result in major shifts; and in short periods of time.

Like all mutations, viral mutations happen randomly. In other words, they do not have a targeted approach, and this is why specific mutations are not inevitable. It is not therefore a question of time before the COVID-19 mutates to become airborne and very lethal. Actually, it may mutate in the opposite directions. And even though a mutation that makes the virus less contagious will eventually lead to its own demise, it is only by chance that a mutation that guarantees its survival eventuates. It is a hit-and-miss situation.

Furthermore, the probability for TWO random mutations to happen, instead of only one, in a manner that is specifically dangerous to humans, is much less likely than for either one to eventuate alone. According to the law of probability, a double probability is the mathematical multiplication of both. As we cannot give a mathematical figure to the probability of each of the above mutations to eventuate, it would be almost impossible to give an estimate of both of them happening together. But to give an example, if the chance of each probability is as high as 10% (and in reality, it has to be much lower because it is a random event), then for the two to take place, the probability of both combined goes down to 1%.

In other words, there is a much higher probability for the virus to become just airborne and remain with the same level of virulence than it is to become both airborne and more lethal. The opposite is also true. There is a much higher probability for the virus to become just more lethal and not become airborne than it is to become both airborne and more lethal.

For all we know, it can even mutate to become both less contagious and less lethal. Actually, statistically speaking, the probability of the virus becoming airborne and more lethal is the same as the probability of it becoming less contagious and less harmful.

Unless we are not given the complete information, the COVID-19, according to what we are presented with therefore, does not in its current form pose a serious threat to the human population.

The Statistics:

1. In 2009, Novovirus H1N1 (aka Swine Flu) infected 60 million people worldwide causing 200,000 to 400,000 deaths with 18,000 in the USA alone.

2. Annually, 300,000 to 500,000 people die of the common flu worldwide.

3. The fatality rate of COVID-19 varies with age and physical conditions, but it is under 3% for healthy people under 60 years old.

4. The fatality rate from some strains of Common Flu can be as high as 8%.

5. Thus far, and as far as I know, there is no satisfactory medical explanation that links the death of COVID-19 victims with the actual virus. Doctors don’t know what actually killed the patients other than pre-existing conditions compounded with the COVID-19.

The ‘Conspiracy Theories’:

The COVID-19 scare is giving two groups of people a field day; 1) the conspiracy theorists, and 2) certain religious groups.

I will not even bother trying to write about the mileage that the latter group is aiming to gain from this traumatic episode in human history. As far as conspiracies are concerned, conspiracy theorists do not ‘need’ a Coronavirus scare to come up with new conspiracy material. That said, we must keep open minds and listen to at least some of them. Some of what they say might, just might, make sense. But when they say that ‘Big Brother’ is behind this, which ‘Big Brother’ I ask?

According to some, the USA ‘created’ the virus and had a plan to hold China accountable for a pandemic in the eyes of the world. In such a case, surely the USA would have made provisions to make sure that the disease did not reach it own shores.

Some may argue that those on the top of the hill don’t care about those who live in the fields, but when I see that Prince Charles and UK’s PM have tested positive, The Queen has been shifted out of the Buckingham Palace and Angela Merkel is in isolation, then surely this cannot be a Western political game.

Furthermore, even though the USA is perhaps using the situation to impose more sanctions on Iran, when I see that the USA has become the world leader in infection cases, when I see a unified and consolidated approach to the so-called pandemic among all world leaders, from all divides, something about any conspiracy theory must be amiss.

The Winners and Losers:

In any warfare situation, there are winners and losers, or at least would-be winners and losers.

Surely, some governments are using the scare as an opportunity to introduce draconian laws that they were not able to pass in ‘peace time’. But again, this alone is not enough reason to initiate this situation; and worldwide.

Call me naïve if you wish, but I can only see losers herein and no winners.

Of course, there are those who made, or hope to make, short/long term gains when/if they bought stocks for dirt cheap prices in the hope that those shares will bounce back again. But given those unprecedented events of almost total shutdown, who is to guarantee that those stocks will bounce back? And even if they do, to say that this whole scare was about taking the chance of a stock market bust, followed by boom, is almost impossible to fathom. Why would all governments of the world, collectively, agree to deliberately create mass unemployment and risk cataclysmic financial depression and bankruptcy in order to satisfy the greed of some shareholders, even the likes of the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers?

After all, those trillionaire legacies have had the tradition of manipulating markets for so long without having to orchestrate a crash of such magnitude as seems to be looming. Why did they take this extreme measure now if they indeed did?

Surely, China will be selling more masks and protective gear to the rest of the world, but how can this compensate for all other sales lost?

No explanation seems to make any comprehensive sense at all. This situation leaves far more room for speculation and less room for identifying any clear winners. The winners/losers scenario has never been so chaotic and nonsensical before. By and large, everyone ultimately will be losers in some way or another.

Geo-Political Situation:

Why would the USA/EU walk away from Italy at a time when Italy needed such a level of support? If the USA is trying to ‘punish’ Italy for joining the Chine Silk Road initiative, then this pandemic should provide an ideal opportunity for bringing Italy back in line and for the USA/EU to come to Italy’s help, presenting themselves as Italy’s best and most reliable allies. Instead, they stepped back, leaving the doors wide open for their rivals to step in. This again does not make sense.

Global Consensus:

Never before have we seen global rivals beating the same drum. If the scare were indeed a scam, surely Russia and China would not be playing America’s tune. Neither would we see photos of President Putin dressed in a Hazmat suit. President Putin does not mince either his words or actions. He must have a real reason. Furthermore, China would not have ‘accepted’ that the virus would take off from Wuhan.

Cold-War type politics have always taught us that there are two sides to any political story; and sometimes more. This is why forums like The Saker exist; because they attempt to tell a story that has been suppressed by the empire’s main stream media. But now, all of those rivals are saying the same story, but in a manner that does not much add up.

Medical Opinion:

Many doctors, actually most doctors, in the world are supporting the narrative of governments. Political leaders are saying that they are working on the advice of medical professionals. But there are some eminent doctors who disagree and are saying that the danger of COVID-19 is very comparable to most other previous flu epidemics. I have seen a few videos to that effect, but this link is a composite of 12 interviews with doctors who agree that the pandemic is blown out of proportion

The Conclusion?

Given what the public has been told, there is no conclusion to be made. Am I saying that warnings should be ignored and that people should go on partying and having close contact with each other? Definitely not. Personally, I am taking all precautions recommended, I cannot chance it, even though I am not fully convinced that humanity is facing an imminent medical catastrophic danger.

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