This article was written for the Unz Review
The latest big news out of the Ukraine
Have you heard what the latest big news out of the Ukraine is? No? There is a mini-Maidan under way and Ukrainian nationalists seem to hope that Poroshenko will be kicked out before the end of the week. You did not know? Well, that is the real big news, the fact that you did not hear about this.
Truthfully, what is going on is kind of interesting. Let me sum it up: the former President of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili (who was stripped from his Georgian citizenship and of his Ukrainian citizenship) recently crossed the border (through Poland, of course) and proceeded to travel to Kiev to demand Poroshenko’s resignation. You think that I am kidding? Check the Wikipedia article about him, it has all the details. It gets better. There is a consensus amongst analysts that Saakashvili is being used as a battering ram by somebody far more influential – Iulia Timoshenko, of course. But what is really new is that many well informed analysts and commentators seem to think that the USA and EU are not the main driving force behind these latest developments (though they are involved, of course).
What is going on here?
Well, as I said, the big news is that you did not hear about it. You did not hear about it because fundamentally nobody cares, least of all the Trump Administration. True, the Trump Administration is so busy self-destructing that it does not really care about Kurdistan either and that implies that it does not even really care about the Holy of Holies : Israel (cry me a river Bibi!). So nevermind the Trump administration, even the Ziomedia mostly seems not to care any more what happens in the Ukraine (of course, some hardcore hardliners still continue to hallucinate). Hence the (relative) silence on this issue. What this tells the Ukrainian politicians is that they are pretty much on their own. And that is why they are taking matters in their own hands.
I don’t think that it is worthwhile to plunge into all the personalities and factions which are currently involved in the political struggle. I can summarize it by saying that there are four main group currently identifiable: bad, worse, even worse and the silent majority. Let’s begin by the last one, the silent majority.
By all accounts (and from all my personal contacts) it is pretty obvious that the vast majority of those who could not leave the Ukraine are now depressed, silent and in a “survival mode”. The Ukrainians, like the Russians, are extremely good at this survival mode which a very painful history has taught them: they could survive in conditions were everybody else would perish. Their history has also taught them that there are time when you want to stay low, shut up and focus on making it through the day. I also think that most Ukrainians fully realize that there is no faction/force out there representing their interest and that means that they have absolutely no reason at all to get involved. This has nothing to do with passivity or political ignorance: that is common sense. Getting involved is what gets you killed. Hunkering down until the worst of the storm passes is the only correct survival technique in times of very ugly political struggles.
Then there are bad, worse and even worse. Bad – that’s Poroshenko. Worse – that’s the crazies à la Oleg Liashko. Even worse – that would be the rabid ideologues like Tiagnibok or Farion. We can think of it as the Crooks, the Clowns and the Nazis.
The Crooks, the Clown and the Nazis:
Right now, the Crooks are still in power but they are struggling. Worse, the Crooks are terrified of the Nazis, so they constantly have to engage into a stream of concessions to try to appease them which, of course, fails, and only emboldens them Nazis (sounds exactly like Trump’s never-ending stream of concessions to the Neocons, doesn’t it?). As for the Clowns, they can be bought by both sides, sometimes at the same time, and they keep the people entertained by their antics. The Clowns are really a byproduct of the terminally lunatic Ukrainian nationalist ideology, but they don’t really represent a powerful constituency: the Crooks and the Nazis are far more powerful. Still, don’t dismiss the Clowns too soon, because they could suddenly switch to the Crooks or the Nazis depending who offers them a better deal (or scares them most).
This would all seem rather amusing if yet another Urkonazi attack was not a very real possibility. Here is how this could happen.
The Crooks are barely holding on to power, and they might have to start a war only to deflect the mounting political pressure against them into another direction. Wars are good to circle the wagons and to crush the opposition.
The Clowns, due to their ideology, would have to approve of a new war. They simply could not say anything against it. If a war is launched, they would have to give it a standing ovation. Besides, if they tried any form of disagreement they would be easily crushed by the Crooks and Nazis. So the Clowns will always support whatever the other two factions agree upon.
As for for Nazis, well, war against Russia and anything Russian is their raison d’être, the very core of their identity and the purpose of their lives. The Ukronazis have a profoundly revanchist worldview and agenda and if defeating Russia is not an option (although some of them won’t even accept that as a fact of life) then killing or expelling all the non-Ukronazis from the Ukraine is an acceptable substitute for them. Yup, they even have some convoluted racial purity theories (Ukie Aryans versus Finno-Ugric Russian Mongols). True, bona fide Nazis are a minority in the Ukraine, but the compensate for that by having guns, lots of guns.
What has kept from Ukronazis from attacking since their last attempt is the painful memory of the crushing defeat they suffered at the hands of the Novorussians. But herein also lies a very real risk: defeats often make armies better, victories often makes them complacent. When I hear the Novorussians speaking of “next time we go to Kiev” I hope that their confidence is warranted, but I am afraid that they might be underestimating the opponent.
Are the sides really ready for a resumption of warfare?
In truth it is very hard to assess the chances of another Ukronazi attack. On one hand, the Ukronazi forces have had two years to regroup, lick their wounds, reorganize, rearm, retrain, etc. Most importantly, it appears that they have built defensive positions in depth, possibly including 2 or even 3 defensive echelons. Why does defense matter? Because if your defensive positions are strong, then the risk of counter-attack by the enemy’s forces are much lower and that, in turn, means that your offensive is far less likely to end up surrounded in a “cauldron” (I simplify here, in reality this is a little more complicated as it depends on the depth of your attack, but nevermind that). A couple of years is a lot of time to dig in an prepare for defense and without access to classified data it is hard to gage who effective these efforts have been. In terms of new equipment (whether Ukrainian or new delivers from the Empire), they will make no difference at all, that’s just political talk. My advice is that as soon as you hear or read anything about the delivery of “lethal weapons” you ignore everything that comes after that. Ditto for training by Polish or US experts. That is just propaganda. What is not propaganda is the intelligence support offered by the Empire overtly (satellites) or covertly (EU ‘observers’ etc.). That and the fact that the Ukronazis have a 2-2.5:1 numerical advantage over the Novorussians.
Much of the same could be said about the Novorussians: they also have had 2 years to dig in, by all reports they have now integrated their forces into a regular army capable of operational-depth counter-offensives, their morale and training is probably much higher than on the Ukronazi side and they can count on Russian support (intelligence, logistics, training, etc.). Also, they would have the home turf advantage. Finally, and Putin very clearly stated that recently, Russia will not allow the military reconquest of Novorussia, which means that even if the Ukronazis somehow succeed in breaking through the Novorussian defenses they will be engaged by the Russian armed forces, primarily by missile/bombing strikes at which point the war will stop in less than 24 hours.
The big conceptual mistake, however, would be to assume that the Ukronazi really want to reconquer Novorussia (or Crimea, for that matter). In reality, everybody knows that these territories are gone forever and that Kiev simply has no means to control them even without Russian assistance. Let me repeat this: even if by some magical effect the Russians were to let the Ukronazis invade the Donbass this would result in a fantastically nasty guerrilla war by the locals which the Ukronazis would have no chance at all to defeat. Yes, it would be a bloodbath, but it would never end with a workable pacification of the Donbass my the Ukronazis. I would therefore say that the role of Russia is not to prevent Kiev from regaining the control of the Donbass, but to prevent a bloodbath in the Donbass.
The real goal: not to win, but to trigger a Russian intervention (same old, same old)
Now, and I have been saying that for years now, the real goal of the junta is to force Russia to openly intervene in the Donbass. As soon as the Russians overtly get involved that would kill the Minsk 1 and 2 agreements, it would turn the current disaster in the Nazi occupied Ukraine into a war of national liberation against the hated Moskals, NATO would immediately put an end to all that recent cozying-up of various EU political parties towards Russia and the AngloZionst Empire’s wet dream would finally come true: such a Russian intervention would usher a new Cold, possibly even Tepid, War in Europe thereby giving a meaning to NATO (finally!) and crushing any kind of anti-imperial feelings in Europe. The Balts and the Poles would finally be secure in their mission to “protect Europe from a resurgent Russia” and the US Neocons would have a big victory party. True, Russia would liberate all of Novorussia in 24 hours or less and, yes, with Russian help the Novorussians could push the line of contact (well, at this point, the frontline) pretty much as far West as they would want to. But that would be a small victory in the context of a global political catastrophe (along with an ugly bloodbath).
This is why the Russians have made a huge effort *not* to intervene, even if that has costs them a lot of political capital (there are still those out there who speak of a Russian “sell-out” of the Donbass). Unlike their western counterpart, who still don’t understand that the purpose of warfare is to achieve a political objective, the Russians fully realize that an (easy) military victory against the Ukronazis would come at a cost of an immense political disaster. The last thing the Kremlin wants is to copy what the US Americans did in Iraq and Afghanistan: begin by an easy victory, declare victory, and then end up with an absolute disaster on their hands from which they sill are unable to extricate themselves. In this respect, Crimea was a totally different and unique case: a vitally important piece of land, which historically was Russian, populated by people who were overwhelmingly pro-Russian (or, simply, Russian), with easy to control choke-points connecting with the Nazi occupied Ukraine and fantastic economic prospects. And yet, even in these ideal condition, the Russian economy is struggling to rebuild this relatively small territory.
It is pretty clear that at the end of the day, Russia will also have to pay for most the reconstruction of the Donbass, however hard this will be. But as much as that is possible, Russia would much prefer to make the reconstruction of the Ukraine an international problem, yet another reason for her to try to avoid any real, overt, military intervention. Because once Russia occupies any territory, she owns it and she becomes responsible for it.
The bottom line is this: we don’t hear much about the Ukraine right now because at least the US Americans seem to have given up on this entire project and because they are busy with more important issues (self-destructing, mostly). But that does not mean that the situation in the Ukraine cannot suddenly reignite with very serious international consequences.
So when I speak of Crooks, Clowns and Nazis, I am not taking these issues lightly at all. Yes, they truly are crooks, clowns and Nazis, but they also very dangerous individuals, especially collectively.
A tiny ray of hope for “less bad”?
Rumor has it that the two big figures behind the scenes in the Ukraine are Igor Kolomoiskii (who now has a personal vendetta against Poroshenko and Saakashvili) and Iulia Timoshenko. I honestly have no means to assess these claims, but I will say that while these two are truly profoundly evil and hateful people (Kolomoiskii was probably deeply involved in the MH-17 false flag), neither of them is stupid. Furthermore, they are both Crooks, not Clowns or Nazis, which means that they can be negotiated with, however distasteful this maybe. Last but not least, they both have a real power base in the Ukraine, money in Kolomoiskii’s case, true popularity in Timoshenko’s case. In this I see a tiny ray of hope.
With the US Americans busy fighting each other internally, and with the Europeans slowly waking up to the total disaster “their” (it is not really “their’s” – but nevermind that) Ukrainian policy has been, maybe, just maybe, there is a tiny chance of, say, some EU leaders getting together with, say, Timoshenko (Kolomoiskii will never be a public official again, he will pull the strings in the back) to sit down with the Russians and the Novorussians and finally seriously negotiate some kind of end to this very dangerous situation. Remember, Poroshenko is a pure US puppet, and he is weak. There is no way he could negotiated *anything* of substance any more. All he needs to do now is to prepare his flight to the US, UK or Israel. But Timoshenko is still “for real” and she is far more capable of dealing with the Nazis than Poroshenko, his billions, his chocolate factory and his Eltsin-like dependence on alcohol.
Of course, there is “the devil you know” argument. And in many ways, Poroshenko being the greedy weak booze-soaked coward that he is looks like the lesser evil. The problem with that is that he is terrified of the Nazis and that they are either paralyzing him or making him do stupid things (like the recent law making Ukrainian the sole language used in schools). And for all the desperate window-dressing the fact remains is that the Ukraine is already a failed state which is going down the tubes with a momentum which nobody can stop, at least not with the current political deadlock in Kiev. Still, we should also remember that Eltsin was also a greedy weak booze-soaked coward, but that did not prevent him form triggering the bloodbath of the First Chechen war. Greedy weak booze-soaked cowards can be extremely dangerous.
the clowns could suddenly switch to the clowns ?
“Still, don’t dismiss the Clowns too soon, because they could suddenly switch to the Crooks or the Clowns [Nazis?] depending who offers them a better deal (or scares them most).”
I assume you mean Nazis here?
thanks for the correction
Thank you for a clear analysis!
One question, really. You dismiss the silent majority, based on your knowledge of the Ukrainian (and Russian) people. I have no reason to contradict you, but still, they must have a sense of a necessity for political change? And if they have this sense, would it not be so that they will be seeking out an alternative to the existing government, regardless of what that option is? They will find no support in the West, and it is very unlikely that they will seek it in Russia.
My analysis on the Maindan-coup was that there were 5 different groups that were joined in an alliance of necessity. The naive element, the students and others who believed that with an agreement with the EU, they could move west and become lawyers and doctors in Berlin and London. Their naivety were quickly exploited by the oligarchs-in-opposition and the nationalists (raging from “clowns” to “Nazis”), who respectively financed and organized the protest . Gradually, ordinary people joined in as the fourth group. They were possibly not that anti-Russian or pro-Ukrainian, but were rather demanding change, any change. They have had enough of corruption, nepotism and oligarchs that used their power to enrich themselves. And now they took to the streets. I cannot see how the big crowd could have emerged without these people joining in. They might have got their banners and flags from someone, but that does not make them supporters. The fifth element would of course be the foreign agents, either handing out cookies (!!) overtly or money covertly. They are still there, by the way, hoping to gaud Russia in to intervening.
My hopes is that the ordinary, realistic people will see that something needs to be done and find leaders that are willing to seek a solution. But, my fears is that they will be so desperate for change that they turn to support the nationalists. Pravij sectr does have credibility in their fight against corrupt oligarchs, and it is little hope that even ordinary people in Kiev will turn to Russia for help, that ship has sailed and they know it. EU and USA has lost interest, so, they only have the nationalists, the clowns and the nazis, to turn to.
I have long said that the next “color revolution” in the Ukraine will be brown. And, even if MSM will not tell us about it, it seems like it is happening. Pravij sectr have promised to take Poroshenko down in the basement and shoot him. I will not weep, but I fear what will replace him. People like Pravij Sectr are not trustworthy, but I am sure that we can rely on this promise.
Then they will attack Novorussia, and provoke an intervention from Russia. And then the Second Cold War can no longer be denied.
My only hope left is that statesmen like Putin and Lavrov will find a solution that we cannot see.
One question, really. You dismiss the silent majority
No, I don’t dismiss them, I praise them for what might look like a passive position but which actually is a wise one
Where is the UAF in your analysis. It seems they are part of the silent majority.
If they are packing their napsacks to leave their current positions, as one has unit just done, won’t that be a tipping point?
A lawmaker was killed in Kiev and others were wounded.
I recently encountered a casual acquaintance who is Ukrainian. We had never spoken of politics or current events. I had not seen him in a year, so I asked him what he had been doing.
He told me that he had just returned from a trip to Ukraine and Russia. His trip included Lviv, Kiev, and Kharkov, and Moscow and towns near Moscow.
He told me that he was shocked by the state of the Ukraine. He was in Kiev during the revolution, and had liked the Maidan and supported it, even though he had not visited the demonstrations.
Now he says that it was a terrible mistake. According to him, everyone in Kiev is scared, depressed, and keeping their heads down, trying to survive. There’s no money, no work, no hope for any improvement in the future. Everyone fears and hates the nazis. He said that wherever you go, you see men without arms or legs, veterans of the conflict with the rebels in Donbass.
The thing that really puzzled him was how different and more positive everything was when he went to Russia. He was amazed at how well Russia was doing, how optimistic and happy everyone seemed there in contrast to Ukraine, despite the sanctions.
everyone in Kiev is scared, depressed, and keeping their heads down, trying to survive. There’s no money, no work, no hope for any improvement in the future. Everyone fears and hates the nazis. He said that wherever you go, you see men without arms or legs, veterans of the conflict with the rebels in Donbass. The thing that really puzzled him was how different and more positive everything was when he went to Russia. He was amazed at how well Russia was doing, how optimistic and happy everyone seemed there in contrast to Ukraine, despite the sanctions.
That is exactly what I hear from *all* my sources, bar none.
remember that Russia was in a similar, though not as bad, state in the 1990s. I will never forget Russia in 1992-1993. It was horrible, a failing, dying country about to break apart.
I hope that the Ukraine will eventually resurrect, but I don’t think that this will happen as a unitary state. I think a break-up is now almost inevitable.
Since I live in Eastern Europe, I better add a few points. When communism fell, the whole of Eastern Europe experienced what I call “the post communism syndrome”. Everybody wanted to imitate the West, as they understood it. This means everybody wanted a high standard of living, in many cases reaching absurd levels. The coup d’etat in Kiev was one aspect of this syndrome, although it is true that the coup could not have worked if it did not have Western backing, including the use of neo-Nazis from Western Ukraine. Once Yanukovich was overthrown, liberal capitalism was introduced, which was not wise. What this meant was that the “winner take all” mentality was applied, turning Ukraine into a feudal state, run by oligarchs, the new robber barons. The ordinary people, who have been turned into modern day serfs, are now having trouble covering their monthly costs. Such a situation cannot last too long, as you will probably see a spontaneous explosion of social unrest, when anything will be possible. As for the oligarchs, they will quite simply run away to the West, where they have their bank accounts. As far as I can see, for Ukraine to survive, it will have to be federalized into three entities. It’s questionable if even this will be enough. I fear the country will fall apart. And I think Vladimir Putin knows it. He has wisely been playing the waiting game.
Not surprising and good to hear. I get so tired of all the Russia bashing. According to my dearly departed mom, the Russians liberated her small northwestern German town toward the end of the Great Patriotic War and gave all the kids candy. They were all starving at that point. Also, a Russian Jew once saved my life. It’s weird how two people with the heritage of the greatest foes in history – German v. Russian and German v. Jew, played such a huge role in my life. It shaped me into the person I am, though a tad bit crazy at times I suppose. Oh, and there’s this journalist I know who is an awesome musician, an excellent analyst and writer, and just a pretty good guy all around. He’s Russian too. That said, I wish Russia and her people well and they should know that I’m not the only one.
“There is a consensus amongst analysts that Saakashvili is being used as a battering ram by somebody far more influential – Iulia Timoshenko, of course. But what is really new is that many well informed analysts and commentators seem to think that the USA and EU are not the main driving force behind these latest developments (though they are involved, of course).”
Probably israel behind his move. They were his main backers when he invaded South Ossetia, with their american and eu colonial’s taking a secondary supporting role.
“True, the Trump Administration is so busy self-destructing that it does not really care about Kurdistan either and that implies that it does not even really care about the Holy of Holies : Israel (cry me a river Bibi!).”
The trump regime may be self destructing, but israeli interests are still their number one priority. Regarding kurdistan in Iraq, they were forced to go covert, as they lack the military muscle there to reinforce the issue. Also, support for an Iraq kurdistan would bare their role too soon in foistering a Syria kurdistan. The kurd independence declaration was too soon, they jumped the gun, and the israeloamericans we’re not yet set up to provide the proper support. Meanwhile, the trump colonials are keeping up the covert, economic and “diplomatic” warfare against israel’s targeted victims as before.
“The kurd independence declaration was too soon, they jumped the gun, and the israeloamericans we’re not yet set up to provide the proper support.”
Bingo, Vot. The timing for Kurdistan is not matching up to the banksters’ real objective, a major escalation, so they are just pretending to not care. Ukraine is in a similar situation: No major escalation yet, so the cartel pretends to not care. Meanwhile, the pawns are still working towards that bigger war.
I have not read anything so accurate, precise and coherent for a long, long time.
Thank you. Some things so far inexplicable begin to make sense
I’m very much an outsider on this topic, but it looks to me like Russia and Ukraine are similar to Ethiopia and Eritrea. A feud among brothers, nastier than a feud between strangers, and which hurts both, is against the interests of both, yet they persist because they’re immersed in bitterness. Well, usually the younger brother is bitter – the older just doesn’t understand why. Forgive me if I’m wrong.
The medicine, in my humble opinion, is soft power on the part of the big brother – Russia in this case. Russia would certainly be much much stronger if its neighbours were allies rather than enemies/traitors. Maybe sometimes the big brother has to be more like the prodigal’s father. I believe Russia, under Putin’s leadership, has shown that it is quite capable of accumulating and exercising soft power and is trying to do so in Ukraine, but how is it doing today? What does the prognosis look like?
The labor camps should be reopened in Siberia. The Nazis, the Crooks and the Clowns should be sent there one more time, but this time all of them along with their families.
Nah, Gulags are too complicated, I would recommend Clockwork Orange approach, where subjects are exposed to latest cultural achievements such as this one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jofNR_WkoCE
Their song about UN “peacmaker” Jan Egeland was sort of funny, if it had not been for the fact that the “humanitarian” organisation Egeland is boss of now only give help to the jihadi side of the conflict in Syria.
Ylvis – Jan Egeland [Official music video HD]
The poet Roger Waters had a proposal for a solution.
The Fletcher Memorial Home
Perhaps “overgrown infants” is a poet’s shorter version of “Crooks, Clowns and Nazis”
“Take all your overgrown infants away somewhere
And build them a home, a little place of their own
The Fletcher Memorial Home for Incurable Tyrants and Kings
And they can appear to themselves every day
On closed circuit T.V.
To make sure they’re still real
It’s the only connection they feel
Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Reagan and Haig
Mr. Begin and friend, Mrs. Thatcher, and Paisly
Mr. Brezhnev and party,
‘Scusi dov’è il bar?’
The ghost of McCarthy and the memories of Nixon
‘Who’s the bald chap?’
And now, adding colour, a group of anonymous Latin-American meat packing glitterati”
Did they expect us to treat them with any respect?
They can polish their medals and sharpen their smiles
And abuse themselves playing games for a while
Boom boom, bang bang, lie down you’re dead
Safe in the permanent gaze of a cold glass eye
Their favorite toy
They’ll be good girls and boys
In the Fletcher Memorial Home for Colonial Wasters of Life and Limb
Is everyone in?
Are you having a nice time?
Now the final solution can be applied”
This is one of my absolute favorite songs by Roger Waters (to whom I have been listening all my life – I am a total Waters groupie!). It is not only beautiful, but very poignant. My alltime favorite line is his one:
Did they expect us to treat them with any respect?
I spent my entire life wondering about this…
Agree on Roger Waters.
Some lines from a song of one of his least known albums Radio Kaos (1987):
“The Powers that be”
They like a tough game, no rules
Some you win, some you lose
Competition’s good for you
They’re dying to be free
They’re the powers that be
They like a bomb proof cadillac
Air conditioned, gold taps
Back seat gun rack
Platinum hub caps
They pick horses for courses
They’re the market forces
They like order, make-up
Lime light power
Game shows, rodeos
Star wars, TV
They’re the powers that be
If you see them come
You better run
Sisters of mercy better join with your brothers
Put a stop to the soap opera right now
They say the toothless get ruthless
They like treats, tricks
Carrots and sticks
They like fear and loathing
They like sheep’s clothing
And blacked-out vans
They like death or glory
They love a good story
Sisters of mercy better join with your brothers
Put a stop to the soap opera state
They say the toothless get ruthless
By the way, I think you and Pepe got the most minerals to combat this madness.
The crooks, the clowns, and — in particular — the Nazis should be led straight up to the gallows as the peak moment at next year’s May 9th celebrations on Red Square, Moscow. And this will include quite a few figureheads of the West’s self-proclaimed “International Community” as well.
Yes! That would be a very fine solution.
Even better would be to have them joined by all banksters and their minions for the big finale, followed by an immediate confiscation of all their (very illegally) acquired wealth to repair the damage they’ve caused to our world and to declare all debts to their financial institutions null and void.
I really enjoy the trenchant accuracy of your essays, Saker. I don’t know if you have answered this in the past, but have you considered having your text proofed before publishing it? The above text is so full of typos and grammatical and spelling errors, that it becomes like skipping through a minefield to read it! Respectfully submitted….
you are right
but I simply don’t have the time.
that is the price I pay for not having a company or corporation behind me
I *barely* have the time to write, nevermind correct.
and the fact that I a “pig writer”: dirty and ugly and messy
I am what I am, can’t do better. sorry
as we say in Russian
you cannot jump over your own head :-)
You are doing fine just getting the information out. I don’t mind the typos. The content is so rich and important.
That’s OK, Saker, we still love ya, ya big lug. At least your writing is legible and I for one can easily understand it, at least the intent of what you write. I have been told that my writing, in particular my books, makes ‘proper’ editors cringe. My thought on that? Good, let them cringe, heartburn is good for them.
Is content and logos that makes value. Precision is part of that, but the fine points of grammar and spelling and typos have no influence on semantic content of what Saker has brought to the symposium he’s convened.
Super fine job!
A German phrase….you cannot jump over your own shadow….!
As long as I can understand what the writer means to say, I could care less about typos. What Saker means to say is well worth reading.
Once upon a time, I thought that content was king and proofreading didn’t matter. But having worked as a professional writer for many years, I now see how many people just tune out anything that doesn’t have a certain level of polish.
My heart sinks a bit when I read an interesting article that is full of typos and simple mistakes, as I would often like to share it with some friends, but they mostly all write as part of their jobs too and thus have certain standards.
There is a solution, though, which would be to enlist some of us as proofreaders. That is, after an article goes up, the proofreaders send in suggested corrections, the mods update the article or ask Saker to confirm anything that’s ambiguous. I would do it some.
I hope you won’t take this the wrong way because I really appreciate these articles.
I respectfully join that and wouldn’t mind proofreading.
Thanks Saker and Cheers!
I began reading the Saker’s blog in early 2014 at the time of the Maidan. As an experienced proof-reader I too felt that the Saker’s English should be corrected. So I did, and published 19 of the Saker’s articles (all nicely proof-read and corrected) from February 2014 through January 2017. You can read them at The Saker’s Articles on Serendipity.
However, I don’t agree that the Saker should submit his articles for proof-reading before publication because (a) proof-reading takes time (thus delaying publication) and (b) the Saker’s English is good enough that we can understand him without difficulty. The world, unfortunately, is not perfect, and sometimes (not always) we just have to accept that. The important thing is that in fact we learn an immense amount from the Saker’s writings and also from that of many of the commenters here.
I agree that proofreading in advance of publication would impose an unnecessary delay, so my suggestion (above) was that a small group of proofreaders could send in suggested corrections after the article is up, and one of the mods would make edits with Saker’s approval, as necessary.
It could be done simply, perhaps like this: add a hidden <div> to the article template with an HTML form that has three fields: Current Text, Suggested Text, Passphrase and a Submit button. Click on a link to toggle visibility of the div, just like the existing comment UI. Then, the approved proofreaders are each given a unique passphrase to verify their identity when submitting corrections via this form. It sends an e-mail to a mod, etc.
About editing I have something to say. I have lived intimately with the new Saker II book that is imminent to go into print. I have lived with a pro editor and someone who knows this stuff for the past 4 months or so. From real experience, we’ve edited, we’ve wrestled and sometimes cried over expression, but the moment we mess with that expression, we lose The Voice! The Saker’s Voice.
Every now and again someone asks for editing. Now, a friendly challenge … Take one piece, edit it, send it to me, and I will tell you exactly where you lost The Saker’s Voice. Let it come the way it comes. For print, we will struggle with it in the background, but do not lose the Saker’s voice.
That is a real challenge … take one piece, edit it, send it to me, and I will give you feedback. (lol).
Editing and proofreading are two different tasks. For the articles that appear on this site, I am simply proposing a way that some of us could perhaps help proofread, that is, to submit suggestions for fixing typos, for correcting very simple grammatical mistakes such as verb agreement, for adding words that are missing, etc. I would not presume to suggest any changes that would change an author’s voice. That’s editing, which is a more involved activity.
Again, I have years of experience doing this in a professional capacity, I’m a native speaker, and would be willing to help for free. If the web site were enhanced as I’ve described above, it could be IMHO a workable solution. Yes, it’s a question of a little bit of work for the team that runs this site, but it takes time to polish writing. That’s just the nature of this kind of work.
If this proposal seems interesting, post an email address here and I’d be happy to follow up.
One reason for western inattention, is that one of the ostensible central goals in the Ukraine coupe was to control the transit region. Since they still have this, without Donbass, they are content to let whole thing become more quiet. As long as rest of Ukraine is controlled, transit lines/pipelines/silk road, then boundary region control over Europe is still in place. What west can not have is rapproachment of Kiev and Moscow. So the tension stays on, but the heat, not need so much.
“The Ukrainians, like the Russians, are extremely good at this survival mode which a very painful history has taught them: they could survive in conditions where everybody else would perish.”
However that may be, what comes across as truly striking as one makes the apt comparison between post-Maidan Ukraine and Yeltsin’s Russia of 20 years earlier is that Russia didn’t go Nazi. The same Western Liberal hell produced entirely different political outcomes. That’s a very accurate gauge of the infatuation with “European values” in each case. Will congenital idiots such as the Psheks, Balts, and Ukros ever be able to show some signs of sanity?
The situation looks similar, but differnt history yields different reactions.
Plus, there was one man in Russia that had a lot of influence and still have: Vladimir Putin. He gradually challenged the oligarchs, killed off the so-called mafia and set a new course for Russia. He focused on strenght to achieve self-determination. Ukraine has not had a similar political force. That is also a difference.
Their populations are not so different. If the Ukrainians had been so lucky to have a president like VVP for the last 15, 16 years as well, only minor problems and relatively slight differences with Russia would have shown. Look at how the Belarus are doing under Lukachenko.
Ukraine’s population has mostly not gone nazi, but are more so very misinformed of which quite some are credulous idiots who believe all lies about bad Mother Russia.
My wife belonged to the formerly mentioned majority wanting change for the better (less corruption, crime, delapidation of about everything in society, etc.) and in the year that we met, she and her colleagues went to Kiev in busses to the 2004 Maidan demonstrations. She truly believed that Youschenko and Timoshenko would do better, soon to find out that under these two pro-western politicians society kept going down quite the same if not worse.
When I told her about facts like people being paid to be at orange Maidan and other strange incidents she started looking at matters with other eyes and soon realized that nothing really improved but only got turned away from what remained of Radianskiy Soyuz and Russian culture.
Then at the end of their term Yanukovich got reelected, more pro-Russia but equally filling his pockets as the former crooks, and very unfortunately doing it more overtly. This gave the western agents and the MSM a useful handle to turn even more people against him and everything pro-Russian.
By that time my wife had fully opened up to reality and when Euro-Maidan began we happened to be in Ukraine not far from Kiev and watched things unfolding. She understood what was happening and was shocked and disgusted by it. But many of her friends still believed the narrative of the media and on several occasions she got violently told off for her thoughts on the matter. Good thing is that these violent types remain, until now, a minority. Strangely enough these fanatics are often relatively well-off people.
It seems that people trying to survive are apparently not very interested in games of politics and lies of the media. Likewise we’ve met poor but well-informed people from the Baltic states who understand what’s playing and are pro-Russian when you ask them.
So yes, too many nazis, even more credulous idiots, but still a good if not major part of Ukrainians, certainly in the east, south and center, who didn’t and will not join this brown ideology.
Very good analysis , Thank you
From southern Europe : my impression is that the eastern europeans ex-soviets should never have joined the EU , spetially the baltics , polish, rumanians and bulgarians . They have to be subventioned in detriment of the EU and spetially of southern Europe , we do no like them ,and they don not like us , they are arrogant hipernationalistic people . One of the Brexit drivers was polish-phobia . And then here comes another big eastern country , part of the old USSR , Ucrania , pretending not to be russian but very ” european ” ( oh my God ) and to join the EU ( meaning that they too want to get subventions from a ruined EU ) .
The geografical situation of the eastern europeans , their destiny ,was to be a golden bridge between western Europe and Russia and Asia , but they are so querulant ,egoistic and self destructive that they choosed to be a bloody war trench instead of a golden bridge . By doing that they benefit other non european countries and they contribute to the isolation of Russia anf to the ruin of the UE , which is in decline after the ex-soviets joined , England voted a Brexit , southern europe is fed up with this enlarged EU , and maybe even Germany is fed up too .
Ucrania , who benefited from Russia with cheap oil and gas and from a large industry , choosed to destroy herself with her hate to Russia , choosed to become a very poor country , and as a side effect , along with the other ex-soviets , choosed to block the EU -Russia relations .
Ucrania and the ex-soviets could have been a golden bridge between the EU and Russia & Asia , and instead they choosed to be a bloody war trench , what a pity .
The fact that the honorary Euro-trash of Eastern Europe is contributing to EU’s very downfall is a huge backhanded compliment to these dullards. Try explain to a proud Maidanite Ukro that Ukraine will break the EU apart and enjoy the ceaseless anti-Russian noises you’ll be hearing, ha!
I agree with this – the expansion of the EU was a big mistake –
I am in the UK and at the time in this country the conservatives Mrs Thatcher and then John Major had fierce debates about this very issue.
The labour govt with Tony Blair pushed full steam ahead with EU expansion and NATO expansion and we see the result of this today.
The EU stopped being about Trade and became a geo-political tool of the Americans.
The promise of prosperity had disappeared for many in Europe especially for the young people.
Eastern European countries joined and just received money and became a means to expand the German market and to export cheap labour to other countries – putting the native population out of work – especially the young people who could not get into low skilled employment to start careers etc
the former eastern block – getting free money for the elites
The EU system is not working and we see the rise of separatism,and populist anti EU governments and Brexit and look at Greece being squeezed to death by the EU.
Ukraine chose the wrong time to want to join the EU – as it has its hands full with problems stated
It also has populations that don’t want any more migrants – not just brown ones but Polish ones, Romanian ones or Ukrainian ones.
Ukraine embraced hatred – which is not a policy that gets you anywhere but disaster
Pretty good synopsis of the situation in Ukraine and the foreign policy of Russia and President Putin.
Novorossiya, in my opinion, will never go back to Ukraine. It is possible that when the hostilities finally cease, and they always do with time, there will be some kind of loose agreement with Ukraine for a cooperation but too many innocents have died for the populace of Novorossiya to ever return willingly to being a part of Ukraine, even if Ukraine itself goes through an epiphany and becomes a starry eyed and benevolent society and country.
I agree completely with the author that Russia is being constantly goaded to intervene but regardless of the breathless reports from foreign media and ‘expurts’ for the last over 3 years, I’ve never seen viable proof of any serving Russian military in action in either republic. I think even if an assault by Ukraine does occur, Novorossiya Armed Forces can and will repel the assault. How far they will advance after the assault is open to conjecture and will be known only if and as it happens.
Concerning the morale of NAF, it is very high even though officially because of the Minsk Agreements they have to sit and take the daily and continuous bombardments from Ukraine (operative term being ‘officially’). We know a lot of people up there and are very close to some and while all grumble from time to time all will stick it out. As an aside, the two Minsk agreements were VVP’s masterful handling of a western crisis during which Merkel, Golland and Poroshenko would sell their souls for a break in the fighting. They got the breaks and to this day have not honored a single word of either agreement but VVP states continuously that the only answer to the Ukraine civil war is to abide by Minsk protocols.
The troops are very well trained and this training started from the first days of Polkovnik Strelkov’s arrival in April of ’14. He was being disingenuous when he complained of no young men rallying to the colors, he kept the older veterans to hold off the Ukrainians and sent the younger men for refresher courses or outright training in Russia. The late summer cauldrons of ’14 were prosecuted by these soldiers returning after their training and while there was some fumbling as they got their sea legs so to speak they basically whipped the puppy snot out of the vaunted, at least in West Media, Ukraine army. One of the biggest shocks to the US cadre embedded with the Ukrainians even then was the Ilyavosk Cauldron wherein one packet of Grad missiles from three launchers totally destroyed a Ukrainian ‘regiment’ that had the good sense to bivouac out in the open on the rolling land near the Russian border and defacto destroyed the morale of just about all the Ukrainian troops in the cauldron areas. It was these in some instances panicked Ukrainians who ran to the Russian borders screaming for safety. It is my understanding that the reports from the embedded ones are the stuff of legend.
All in all, I expect President Putin to continue with his current international and domestic policy. Some will say he is not forceful enough, some that he has sold out, others that it’s time for him to go. Me, I can see the steady and never ending pressure he puts on his, and our, enemies and I can see that he will do almost anything to avoid war, but on the other hand never forget what he has said more than once. He said when he was younger an in St. Pete, if he was in a disagreement and he concluded that he would not get out without a fight, he would get in the first and telling blow. If ever there were words to remember, it is these few.
Never The Last One http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK A Deep Look In To Russia, Her Culture And Her Armed Forces
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
Thanks for the authoritative viewpoint you bring to the Vineyard.
I have one OT remark:
Ilovaisk is the correct spelling. I never get it right myself. I have about ten versions of it in comments.
But it was an object lesson the Ukies never learned. NATO still cannot comprehend the devastation that hit the armored brigades of Ukie numbnuts.
The Russian grads (on loan to a good cause) were on videos. Maybe the vids are still extant. It’s awesome. But nothing like the results. The videos and stills from the battleground are dystopic. Men like charred briquets. Metal melted and shredded. The encampment a graveyard smoldering. The colitis this scene spread is still rattling the US Command and Brussels’ gender-neutralites. And it should. It was but one small taste of what anyone who dares to attack Russia will get. Iskanders will be the choice next time.
Actually, most, read the vast majority, of NAF equipment, especially back then, was ‘on loan’ from the very army NAF was fighting. Even MBT’s were purchased from the Ukrainians, let alone Grad systems, arty, BTR’s, BMP’s, trucks, you name it. The disasters that befell the Ukrainians in ’14 and early ’15 also served to swell dramatically the armories, arty parks and ammo dumps of NAF.
My sources told me that some Field Grades in Nato were beyond stunned at what the Grads and other systems could and did do, apparently they were too busy working on gender equality to bother to research what their prospective enemy could, and would, do to them.
Grad is a relatively cheap 20 tube launcher that is very accurate, extremely mobile and almost impossible to defend against. The three systems used at Ilyavosk tossed 60 missiles at the regiment, battalion, whatever the Ukes chose to call it that day, and said unit was totally destroyed in less than 5 minutes, manpower and equipment down to field kitchen trash pits were gone. Nato can not produce such a system. Well, they could but by the time the designers and MIC got done with it the range requirement would be roughly to Mars, the missiles themselves would be a million bucks each and due to budget constraints the first half battery would enter service in 2043.
Makes you winder what kind if intelligence officers NATO has when they knew almost nothing about the Grad missile system. Even I know what those things can do. I sincerely hope NATO will not do anything stupid because of it’s incompetence.
I wonder how long would it take for all of us to find out with a good degree of certainty the whole truth about this events in the Ukraine.
I just saw a TV episode, here in Russia, in which participants are required to answer question while staying connected to a lie detector machine. This particular episode was about the last days of Gorbachev as a head of USSR. In short, he was a traitor! Elsin was a traitor! The whole operation that broke up USSR was scripted and implemented by the US. Gorbachev and Yakovlev (who was a CIA agent) were the only actors in this theater who knew what was really happening in 1991. Elsin was also clued in but not entirely. Simply mind blowing. All of that to say, is that perhaps in 30 years from now, we will know much more about the blood theater that is taking place in the Ukraine. However, most of these criminals that are destroying Ukraine right now won’t be alive.
I think the Saker just wrote an excellent description of AMERICAN politics.
“By all accounts (and from all my personal contacts) it is pretty obvious that the vast majority of those who could not leave the Ukraine are now depressed, silent and in a “survival mode”. The Ukrainians, like the Russians, are extremely good at this survival mode which a very painful history has taught them: they could survive in conditions were everybody else would perish. Their history has also taught them that there are time when you want to stay low, shut up and focus on making it through the day. I also think that most Ukrainians fully realize that there is no faction/force out there representing their interest and that means that they have absolutely no reason at all to get involved. This has nothing to do with passivity or political ignorance: that is common sense. Getting involved is what gets you killed. Hunkering down until the worst of the storm passes is the only correct survival technique in times of very ugly political struggles”
That is how I view the situation of most of the American people.
We know several facts about America. America is no longer a democracy. This has been stated multiple times by multiple people ranging from Ivy League political scientists to a former President (Jimmy Carter). The Ivy League political scientists described America as more accurately being an oligarchy, and did an extensive study showing that ordinary people have zero impact on policies at the Federal level.
We know America is currently the most advanced surveillance state in the history of mankind. Now, almost everything that anyone says is monitored and recorded. And the last bit is very important, in that if a person ever draws attention to themselves, then operatives of the surveillance state can access immense details of everything they’ve done and said for at least the last 5 years or so.
We know that America is a violent police state where the police can beat, intimidate or even kill with impunity. There is no meaningful judicial or civilian review of police killings.
We know that ‘protest’ has largely become illegal and has certainly been made ineffective in recent times. Laws have been passed making any protestors liable for anything that happens as a result of a protest. If an ambulance is delayed by even a minute by a protest, everyone involved in the protest can be held responsible. Both political parties now have arms of violent street thugs to go attack anyone saying anything they don’t like. And the ‘news media’ has become pure propaganda channels that only report or don’t report what the powerful want to see. The Saker mentioned this with respect to Ukraine, and its certainly true of any domestic opposition or protest. The days of Walter Cronkite reporting on Dr. Martin Luther King’s civil rights protest truthfully and fully are long, long, long since gone.
So, to me, the American people are in ‘survival mode’. They know nothing that they can do will change anything. They know they have no power and no access to power. Corrupt, lying politicians appeal to them in elections that are not held often enough, and then ignore them and/or laugh at them. So, ordinary Americans keep their heads down and simply try to get through each day.
Except, occasionally they see a glimmer of hope of change. Then they react with strong movements. We saw this when the Obama the Liar campaigned on Change and Hope in ’08. We saw this with the Occupy Movement. And to some extent we saw this with the Trump campaign, with the American people voting for at least a glimmer of hope of change and against the most hated and corrupt American politician of at least this generation denying her the power that she thought it was her turn to grab for personal gain of money and power.
In such a situation, be it in Ukraine or in the United States, that means the Crooks, the Clowns and the Nazis are sitting on top of a powder keg. The people know things are badly wrong. The people know that they are ruled by greedy Crooks and opportunistic Clowns and Nazis.
I didn’t live in the Soviet Union in the 1980’s and 1990’s, but from a distance this seems similar to the situation there. People know things are badly wrong, but also that it is very dangerous to try to speak out or change this situation. This situation then stays static until at sometime the people see a hope for a chance at change. In the Soviet Union, it seemed like protests against the government quickly went from a few thousand people to millions of people demanding change.
That is the danger or the hope of such a situation of a people in survival mode. That when they see a chance to get out of survival mode and to live a decent life, then suddenly millions and millions of people can be out in the streets demanding change. And the powerful always feel they are powerful until this happens, then they are scrambling for seats on the last helicopters off the rooftops.
“In such a situation, be it in Ukraine or in the United States, that means the Crooks, the Clowns and the Nazis are sitting on top of a powder keg. The people know things are badly wrong. The people know that they are ruled by greedy Crooks and opportunistic Clowns and Nazis. ”
The CCN types know, they are browning their pants in Fear.
Obama told an audience that he was the only thing between them and the pitchforks.
Yes indeed. As you say, the People, the “Pitchforks”, hence the Propaganda, and, in part, the War-as-distraction is understood…for what it is, more every day.
Like the fella said, if we go on in this direction we’re gunna git whare we’ re a goin’
Very well put by Anonymous.
Americans I have known in the US could be described as ignorant and apathetic.
Don’t forget – 130 million voted for Trumpenstein and Hitlery, but 120 million (48%) didn’t bother and stayed at home. They either realised the whole farcical process was totally irrelevant to their needs, or were just disgusted by the whole tawdry, degrading spectacle. That after a hysterical election circus given blanket coverage on which billions had been spent.
Most Americans I have met seem to be just struggling to survive, some of them working three jobs, and barely scraping by. They just retreat into private and family life. As far as they are concerned all these political shenanigans could be playing out on the dark side of the moon.
Seeing an article by you on Ukraine, I’d wondered if you would be referring to the recent revelations of the US military build up on the Black Sea and in Moldova which according to these sources indicate a substantial planned presence.
Do you view this as a serious development or just more US posturing, no different from other posturing and having little impact on Russian defense planning?
All you have to do is look at the map of the Black Sea. They can build all they want on the south coast of Ukraina, it’s still but a stone’s throw from Russian Krimu and Sevastopol. Only a fool would try anything so close to Russian lands. They might have to cut the fuses on Kalibr and Bastion amongst others very short but I have few doubts that if push comes to shove, whatever nato bases are in Ukraina and whatever hulls are based there will be dust in about three minutes.
Over a year ago I warned of just this type of thing happening. And said that to prevent it should be one big reason for Russia to support a free Novorussia in all the Southeast. Novorussia would have included the entire northern Black Sea coast of the current Ukraine. So there would never be the worry of NATO bases a mile from Crimea.
Read Auslander’s comment. The worry belongs to NATO.
What kind of fool steps into the enemy’s staging and training arena to launch a provocation? Answer, the US kind of fool.
Do you really think that Russia will hold back n the Black Sea?
The last time I looked at military thinking,it was said that you get as close to the enemy as you can for a sneak attack. Hence why Napoleon and Hitler launched their invasions of Russia from “next door” and not from far away. Why the USSR went to war against Finland over the distance to Leningrad.Its also why the Soviets liked the buffer of the Warsaw Pact.And why Russia is so concerned to not let Ukraine become part of NATO. And why the US likes having huge Oceans between them and their enemies. Now if that has “some how” changed since,oh,like “forever”,Then you let me know about that. Otherwise I’ll stick with the time honored method of not letting your blood enemy get close to you if you can prevent that. Which they could have,but didn’t.
I understand completely MilThought and I know that theory of close to your enemy very well. On the other hand, at this time there is nothing that can be done with nato setting up bases in Ukraina, that is a fact. Of course one can understand that Ukraina is full of those who don’t particularly like either the thugs in power in Kiev or nato so in essence any nato base will have enough eyes on to if needs be count the squares of toilet paper used daily by the OiC.
I stand by what I wrote, they can set up all they want but all are within close range of Krimu. If it does start, you can rest assured that the first salvos will come from the ‘antimissile’ systems in Romania and Bulgaria amongst other locations firing Tomahawks and our little city is Ground Zero. We’ll find out then how good Pantsir and other systems are. The retaliation will be epic but it won’t matter to us in this bucolic little valley.
I agree mostly Auslander. But my point was that Crimea,and all Russia,would have been better off with a neutral or pro-Russian Ukraine. And if they couldn’t have that,then a Novorussia that included the northern Black Sea coastline.Having NATO or at least US bases in Odessa and maybe Kherson is almost as bad as having them in Crimea itself. So far we have avoided a Ukraine “inside” NATO. But since the US has bases in many non-NATO states.Just keeping Ukraine out of NATO isn’t enough for security.What is needed is a neutral or pro-Russian Ukraine at least. And if not that ,then a pro-Russian Novorussia,that would assure a buffer to prevent NATO from getting close enough to easily attack.During WWII we saw that Crimea wasn’t able to hold off falling to the nazis. She defended herself well.But having the nazis in control of the mainland was a death blow for her in the end. I personally think Russia could win in the end a war.But I don’t see a reason to chance that unless there is no other way. And certainly see no reason for Russia to put herself under a huge disadvantage to start with.Letting the US or NATO prepare more and ever closer forces on her borders is a risk I would never advise.
The Ukraine will be a free-fire zone.
As for not letting their blood-enemy get close, Uncle Bob, the Ukraine and Russia were one. The border in 2013 was merely checkpoints. Hardly a fence anywhere. People merely walked back and forth across the fields.
Now, with a few thousands of NATO and mercs, these “troops” are the first targets, not a threat.
An attack on Russia requires an attack on Belarus and the other CSTO nations.
Basically, the first hour will reduce everything in big, stupid Ukraine to residue.
Every ship, plane, tank and APC will be destroyed. Novorossiya will rise up and Ukraine will be gone.
If US and NATO want a war, they are going to get a war that no one will call off until Brussels surrenders. The US will withdraw to Germany but NATO will be gone so fast It will make the war look like a video game. Southern District has probably 150,000 men. The Western District an equal amount.
What sort of Crusade would the West mount against this?
100,000? They would need 6 times that to have a prayer.
And they would have to traverse the width of Ukraine.
By air and sea, the West will be disintegrated.
By land, they will incinerated.
The measurement of the war’s duration would be in hours. 24-48-72.
And would any Russian leader grant the attackers mercy?
I think the rage for the last 25 years of indignities and mayhem would mean absolute destruction of the attackers. Only some Americans might be spared just to march them barefoot in the streets of Donetsk, Lugansk, Mariupol and Moscow.
Way too much underestimation of enemies in your comment. I hope you are right. But I think underestimating an enemy is a bad mistake at any time. And you seem to make a habit of that.
As an example,you mention the CSTO states.Except for Belarus and probably Kazakhstan (maybe Armenia,but not sure).Do you seriously think the others will join in the war.They will wait to see who is winning first.If Russia looks like she is winning they will join her.But if not they will stay neutral or join the other side.At the best of times,those states are hard for Russia to control.So Russia usually leaves them alone to keep whatever influence she can with them.They aren’t about to jump into a war without thinking they know how it will turn out.
You’re forgetting an important and sure one: Chechnya.
All the NATO nations are run by morally weak Ideologues. Female MODs, transgender commanders (Germany just elevated one), and a history for 25 years of fighting wars with air power.
We’ve been through this routine here for years.
Show us how US and NATO airpower gets to Russian forces before or during an attack on Russia (which is the only war that will occur. Russia won’t start it. Russia will strike first, but not start it.)
Now that you can’t show how air power succeeds for the West, what happens on the ground, on the steppes, on the flats and slow-rolling plains of Ukraine?
What happens is what I wrote. The utter destruction of NATO, much less the disappearance of all Ukies in the field and barracks.
The Ukraine is not just Russia’s next door neighbor or backyard. It’s Russia to the Russian military. It’s where they fought their biggest wars. The maps they have are not just in front of them on a table or digital monitors. That’s their hometown, village, neighborhood. Their grandmother lives there, uncles, cousins, people they visit and worked with. Ukraine was Russia. Not all of it, but much of it and especially where the front lines will be. It’s the back of their hand, the front of the minds, streets and foot trails.
It’s where they hunt and fish and farm and mine.
The Nazis, the US mercs, NATO are like much of the Ukies—the strangers in the battle zones.
So, no air power, and not enough scale to defeat Donbass much less the Southern District and then the Western District + Belarus.
As for the other CSTOs, what I said is they would be targets. And one in particular has a very wise ruler, Kazakhstan’s Nazarbayev, who understands that he is gone if Russia is diminished.
Model the force structures and leadership, tactics and logistics, morale and existential threat factors, Uncle Bob.
Russia in hours! If not, the end of the world and planet Earth.
I have no military knowledge but I would make a couple of points –
The US is at war with Russia. Virtually everything the US does is aimed at attacking Russia in some way. They even bar young disabled athletes from the Olympics, invade consulates, and would if they could, destroy Russia in a heartbeat. In other words the west do things of no strategic use, but out of sheer satanic malevolence. There is nothing the west won’t do.
We can therefore assume one fact with certainty:
The 13 new American bases in Ukraine and Moldova are being built there to be used in some sort of aggressive effort against Russia. That is their sole purpose. They have no other reason to exist.
Second point: As always, the fighting Auslander and Larchmonter describe as possibly being the way things would go, all takes place in Europe.
The driver of such a war, the USA, remains safe and untouched across the ocean watching the carnage on tv.
At no point in his analysis did Auslander suggest that the US would be attacked. It never is.
Don’t those who have military knowledge think that if war starts the most important thing is to attack and destroy the US?
Maybe I am missing something. But I see almost weekly evidence of ever encroaching NATO activity and with a permanent presence in the Black Sea (not allowed before) and naval bases housing God-knows-what, notwithstanding my total ignorance of military strategies, I’d say the danger to Russia is severe and growing by the minute.
I’d also suggest that with the news that China will launch a gold backed yuan for trade purposes thus hugely undermining the dollar reserve currency racket, the likelihood of war is many times increased as the US cannot “allow” this to happen.
To Zena – I think we are past the point of war. If the US military could fight it would have done something somewhere by now. But it can’t fight, and the whole world is seeing this. All it can do is blow things up, destroy undefended cities and kill unarmed civilians. But it can’t fight against soldiers, and damn sure can’t fight against Russian soldiers. And the Pentagon knows it very clearly.
And all of this can be seen clearly by everyone in the world, including Venezuela and the Philippines. The US is in retreat in all theaters, even the ones like Afghanistan where it looks like it’s advancing.
So, back to the Black Sea and the original issue here, the base will only exist to serve as a provocation and neocon fantasy. And the US will only provoke, at least until it comes to understand not to poke the bear. And this may or may not happen, somewhere in the world one day. Russia will slap back, hard. And the US will learn. It may happen in the Black Sea. Who knows.
If it happens, it will happen when Russia judges the balance of power is right. Sometime after the Yuan futures contract restores oil’s convertibility to gold at the end of this year – a huge thing, as you suggest, a milestone that historians will note.
The US would love to go to war to prevent this. The US had to go to war. It was time for the US to go to war long ago to prevent this. But the US has not gone to war. Because the US can’t go to war. The US military cannot fight. The US has lost.
True. However is imperfect situation and Murka may make final desperate attempt…they can attack pretty well. UK made a close thing in W2….and almost lost.
If Murka had stayed out Europe’d be Red right now.
Denaturalzation of Europe by African migration is a Strategy to make Europe turn from Satraps to Ruins…ie Empire understands that Europe is lost.
internal contradiction exist inside Murka such that it is destructing automatically, surrender/loss of dollar “value” and imperial satraps necessarily catalyzes this ketosis. Thus, after crash, ie probably in 2018, Murka will be in such condition that Ru and Chin will send “aid”. And probably cops…
It remains to be done, and we’ll see how it goes…
I always tend to underestimate the time these things take, but the way they go is usually what I have said it would be.
Yesterday, Putin personally launched 4 ICBMs in a huge military exercise. The message was sent to fortress-island USA.
Things are symbolic at times. Look for the symbols.
3 from submarines, 1 from rocket base.
“Vladimir Putin as commander in chief of the country took part in the launch of four ballistic missiles. The trajectory was different. The purpose of the two of them was a testing ground on the Kamchatka Peninsula, two – range Chizha in the Arkhangelsk region. The missiles were launched as from the Plesetsk cosmodrome and Russian nuclear submarines. Such a demonstration of our military might has frightened the representatives of the European Union. Especially the launch of ballistic missiles alarmed the British. Apparently, they did not expect that Moscow will conduct similar exercises. In English policy threw the whole discussion about what can cost the United Kingdom a confrontation with Russia. Most agreed that our countries better friends.”
Launching cruise missiles and ballistic missiles have their symbolism. And sending messages with ICBMs, particularly from submarines is very, very special message.
As Putin said at Valdai: We don’t threaten. We warn.
This is also about North Korea. He warned that an accident could launch WWIII if the US does not stand down with its threats and start diplomacy.
You see how symbolic action works with words spoken firmly, not loudly?
Exercises, diplomacy, military symbols, all are the languages of Geopolitics.
Yes I do see that and am grateful for the very informed comments you, Auslander and others post.
I am sure your point about Russian submarine launched missiles is their message to the US not to imagine it is immune from attack.
Speaking from a position of ignorance on military matters I would nevertheless have thought that for the US, shortening their missile’s flight time would bring an advantage hence creeping ever closer to Moscow. Does anyone even know where all the US nuclear weapons are? They lie about everything. Haven’t some even “gone missing”?
But in short what with US military expansion everywhere, the certain imminence of big probably terminal problems for the dollar, their domestic political incoherence and the unstoppable progress of the SCO, all topped off by the fact that the country is being run by generals I can’t think of a more dangerous time.
I mean a country collapsing and being run by military men who amidst the chaos happen to have one big resource – they’ve more weapons than the rest of the planet and best of all being psychopaths and Satanists they don’t have any pesky human conscience to worry about either.
And they have this weird philosophical belief that they are an exceptional nation charged with running the planet with full spectrum dominance.
Anyone writing this as a movie script would be told it’s completely over the top and totally implausible. And I didn’t even mention their addiction to pedophilia.
A link to a story in a place called Al Rashideen in which NATO backed terrorists lured a large number of young children to a location offering them food then blew them all up with explosive devices. Their mothers, locked in a bus had to watch this.
This is the mentality of the Anglozionist empire – dark and ugly..
Whatever they are doing in the Black Sea it is aimed at Russians upon whom they would inflict exactly the same barbarity as these Syrian children suffered.
” I mean a country collapsing and being run by military men who amidst the chaos happen to have one big resource – they’ve more weapons than the rest of the planet and best of all being psychopaths and Satanists they don’t have any pesky human conscience to worry about either.
And they have this weird philosophical belief that they are an exceptional nation charged with running the planet with full spectrum dominance.
Anyone writing this as a movie script would be told it’s completely over the top and totally implausible. And I didn’t even mention their addiction to pedophilia. ”
Well, you summed it up quite well, I can say.
When we know, be relieved that the Russians know as well. Including more troops at the Black Sea. Including all those ‘secret’ massive transports of materials through Germany to their borders.
I hardly believe that Russian generals are really scared by this (how many Kalibrs are needed to take them out?), but I’ll leave that to the more military skilled.
Returning to your citate: besides now not being protected by an ocean (nasty stuff, those submarines), I would suggest to make it perfectly clear that there are added targets: Tel Aviv, Ryad, and the City of London.
Very well put by Zena.
These campaigns of vilification and demonization are always the precursor to war, whether it be Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran, N. Korea or anyone else.
All things Russian, the president, business, sport, media, everything else, have been targeted in a coordinated smear and hate campaign.
In George Orwell’s 1984, there was a Two Minute Hate against the state’s current enemies. What we have now is a 24/7 hate.
Well actually we didn’t have to wait long to see one of the purposes of the US military build up in Moldova and Ukraine – ” to involve Russia in a new war far from its borders.”
“A coup d’etat is unfolding in Moldova. On October 24th, Speaker of Parliament Adrian Candu assumed the function of President, and the republic’s Constitutional Court resolved to temporarily suspend Igor Dodon’s presidential authorities and duties.”
It seems the west wants Moldova.
“Neighboring Romania, a member of both the EU and NATO, is working in support of the unionists in Moldova. In strategic terms, unionism means a pro-Western course for Moldova and incorporating the country into the NATO bloc”
And of course driving this is the real target, Russia.
“As things stand, NATO and Ukrainian troops are already holding joint military exercises near Transnistria’s borders, and both NATO and Ukraine are interested in involving Russia in a new war far from its borders.”
The Russian peacekeepers are actually in quite a vulnerable position.
“Russian peacekeepers are, after all, still stationed in the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic. A seizure of Transnistria and the death of Russian peacekeepers is impermissible. To a certain extent, such would mean a repeat of the situation in South Ossetia when, as a result of a Georgian attack, 15 Russian peacekeepers were killed, thus setting the stage for Russia to go to war against Georgia and its Western allies.”
“Hence why the issue of Igor Dodon being deprived of presidential authority is significant beyond domestic Moldovan politics. On resolving this issue depends not only peace on the Dniester, but also the fate of Russia, Ukraine, and Romania. Igor Dodon himself has not recognized the resolution of the pro-Romanian Constitutional Court, and has said that only the people have the right to remove him from power. Thus, the conflict in Moldova is far from over. We will continue to monitor further developments.”
I hope Dodon and the Moldovans can see and forestall the danger.
This article needs clarification. The bulk of Ukronazis originate from Western Ukraine, the former Galizia. The are Ukrainian citizens, but do not regard themselves as Ukrainians, but as Galizians, as they are of mixed blood, possessing Ukrainian, Polish, German, Baltic and Scandinavian blood. Eastern Ukraine is made up of Russians, as it was part of Russia, being incorporated into Ukraine during the communist period. Central Ukraine is where the bulk of the silent majority lives, having no real wish to fight Russians in Eastern Ukraine, as they are Orthodox Christians, just like Russians. The article creates a false impression that Ukronazis were defeated by Novorussians. In fact it was the Ukrainian Army that was defeated, because the bulk of its troops were conscripts who had no real desire to fight. The Ukronazis in the Army represented a small minority. It means nothing that the Ukrainian Army had two years to prepare for a new war. So did the Novorussians, whose moral is high, and who in the past two years created a competent military, almost certainly better than the Ukrainian, even though its numbers are smaller. Yes, Kiev might be foolish enough to attack again. It will fail again, because the war will again be fought by conscripts whose moral is probably lower than it was two years ago, due to the economic and social conditions in the country, as the bulk of ordinary people having a tough time surviving while the oligarchs are plundering anything they can grab. As things stand now, Ukraine will either have to be federalized into three parts, or it will fall apart. It will probably fall apart anyway, the economic situation being one of the chief catalysts.
I’m wondering about the bombing yesterday in Kiev. One of the most notorious of the neo-nazis and his aide were hurt in it. And a bodyguard was killed. I expect the Ukrainians to blame Russia pretty soon over that. But my questions would be:
1.Was it connected to the Ukrainian terrorist attacking the Russian border guards the other day.
2. Was it a warning from the “crooks” to the nazis.
3.Was it an inner-nazi feud.
4. Was it a payback (finally) for the bombings in Donbass.
Just like with the maidan snipers.There are so many suspects we might need a Sherlock Holmes to “deduce” the guilty parties.
“The big conceptual mistake, however, would be to assume that the Ukronazis really want to reconquer Novorussia (or Crimea, for that matter). In reality, everybody knows that these territories are gone forever and that Kiev simply has no means to control them even without Russian assistance.”
I’m not so sure of the Ukronazis’ interest in facts, let alone their scientific mindset proper. What stands out as the Ukronazi trait par excellence — apart from insane Russophobia — is the permanent, total grovelling before the West and each and every one of its Zionazi criminal entities. On this basis, if there seems to be a lack of interest in land-grabbing on the part of the Ukronazis then that’s most likely a sign there’s no interest to be found among their Western sponsors.
US might not care about the Ukraine now (I think that Trump don’t trust them after they put all their eggs with Hillary), but Canada does and is highly active there. They train, finance and equip (with lethal weapons contemplated) the Ukronazi army. Under the real PM Chrystia Freeland, who’s proud of her nazi grandad and banned in Russia, Canada is resolved to help Ukros to attack the Donbass and provoke Russia. A friend of mine have seen twice the Right Sector flag in Montreal, which is quite telling.
Here’s something interesting. Canada has nazi monuments, Russia denounces them, they’re accused of Fake News, and Bnai Brith, the AIPAC of Canada, sees nothing wrong with it. http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/why-deny-the-ukrainian-nazi-connection
Population of Ukraine:-
At independence, 1991 – 52 million.
Pre Maidan, 2012 – 38 million, plus 7.5 million working abroad.
Now, 2017 – 30 million, after the loss of Crimea, Donbass, refugees to Russia.
I think this is a smokescreen in development. A smokescreen of governmental collapse. That munitions dump fiasco most recently on display is a little seed meme for the spectacular about to be bumped in.
“Greedy week booze-soaked coward”, sounds like an apt description of that wretched alcoholic cowardly fraud Winston Churchill although with the disinformation surrounding him few will understand
A very good analysis.
But if I may… I know Russia does not want escalation or war – sane choice, but whether she restrains herself or not – its a fait-accompli- she will be demonized in West as the provocateur and eventually the AngloZionists will either “break” her into submission or will start a hot war.
Do or don’t – be damned either way. So, based on the above premise – would it not be moral and ethical to save the Novorussians? These are Russian people. Because of Russia’s indecisiveness or giving Minsk Accords more time or appeasing the West – whatever may be the reasons, it is not worth the time and let the Novorussians get shelled and die slowly day after day. Giving more time will only make these Nazi’s more bold and God know who else they will assassinate next after Motorola, Givi and
On another note, I wonder what is the take of the Orthodox Church on this Novorussian conflict? Did His Holiness Patriarch Kirill not openly give any opinion on this?
– Best Wishes
Early in the war, 2014 winter, the icon of the Virgin Mary, was brought to Donbass.
Among the fighters defending Donbass are “chaplains”.
In the film ‘My Open Hand is Now Turned into a Fist’ there is a scene with the Orthodox cross and icon. It is an integration of religion with military. Notice the medals on the man’s uniform.
@ 3:29 on the film.
Considering the Uniate Church persecution of Orthodox priests and nuns in Ukraine, the church in Russia fully supports Donbass.
What I find very worrying is the fact that, from 3 years onnow , a full generation of teens living in the territory called Ukraine is nurtured with rabbit russo-phobia that is slowing brain washing their heads. What will be the consequences if all that will continue for still more years?
Very good point. That could well make matters much worse.
Also from me, that’s a very good point.
My guess is, that it will stay for long.
In the eighties of last century, the civil war(s) in Lebanon broke out. In the spike, when the mighty US military came to ‘settle’ it, there were over 30 different militia’s shooting at each other. The US army eventually fled (‘we retreat tactically, the enemy follows in utter disorder’ we used to joke in my youth during the Vietnam war).
A whole generation in Lebanon grew up in all these years. They know only war.
Now guess, from what country most people come, often family-based like the Mafia, that firmly held with brutal gangs most of the parts of the cities of Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany, laughing at a powerless police.
To counter my own point in order to avoid being generalizing too much, this is a beautiful interview from Lebanese-born German reporter Imad Karim with Frauke Petry, then the front woman of the AfD (Alternative fuer Deutschland), a party that is very critical on unlimited immigration and therefore is demonized in the MSM: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlCLKQv625w .
It’s amazing, that what on beforehand should give a battle, actually ends up with an eloquent conversation, without an attacking word.
There might still be hope.
My excuses, it’s in German. I couldn’t find a translation in English yet.
“Rabbit russophobia” — an excellent assessment of hare-brained Ukros :-)
“What I find very worrying is the fact that, from 3 years onnow , a full generation of teens living in the territory called Ukraine is nurtured with rabbit russo-phobia that is slowing brain washing their heads. What will be the consequences if all that will continue for still more years?”
Essentially the same psywar govno the zionazis have been freely using to demonise Muslim people in zionazified west. If you are wondering what the long term, multi-generational effect of this will be, look at how westerners view Muslim people, and those who “look Mideastern” now after 6+ decades of this genocidal perversion. It is the very same subhuman element engineering this.
I don’t think there will be a problem.
The boys will go to Poland to pick cabbages.
The girls will work as prostitutes in the EU.
They will have no other future in the Ukraine.
Poroshenko is a lot like Hillary Clinton. They are both alcoholic, both completely driven by their own ego, but also both sociopaths. The Clinton’s have a reputation for eliminating anyone who has ever stood in their way. Poroshenko has a similiar reputation, though less known or spoken about–which translates to him being the better of two vipers. Supporting Porohshenko is the CIA-trained Ukrainian Gestapo that can operate in the open without oversight or scrutiny (especially in the Western media). Porohshenko can, and I think will, order the assassinations of many of his opposition. The Ukrainian Gestapo seems hesitant to strike out at anyone with real political power, and therefore a force of angry zealots that would be triggered into action should their leadership suddenly blow up in a car bomb–but that might change.
The latest very public assassination was aimed at the Nazis, and went off with very little backlash. It sent a message to the Nazis that they can be got. The Gestapo, I feel, will start working through the lower rank leadership of the Nazi factions, whittling away at their support-base. It may work, but time is not on Poroshenko’s side. He’d be better off taking out the top tier opposition in as short a timeframe as possible. There’s probably no more than a dozen figure heads that Poroshenko could have eliminated without raising an eyebrow in the West.
It’s not like Poroshenko doesn’t have options, it’s just that he’s too weak and cowardly to pursue such an aggressive crackdown.
“She is a monster, too – that is off the record – she is stooping to anything.”
– Samantha Powers on Hillary Clinton
What the Zionists are trying to achieve through propaganda is the truth envelope:
Surround several statements that make sense with the target with one that flips the narrative in their favour. This is the chief component of their current propaganda.
It is more believable as several of the truth envelope sentences sound truthful. Thus the reader associates the lies with their calculated veracity.
It is pretty clear that at the end of the day, Russia will also have to pay for most the reconstruction of the Donbass
This line of thinking always makes me scratch my head…
Does the body have to ‘pay’ for the healing of a broken limb?
Sure, yes, it takes time and energy for the healing to take place — but is there a choice?
Or are the Russians so foolish they would allow their limbs and body parts to be lopped off, one by one, given that they’ve already protected the proverbial family jewels (Crimea)?
Maybe so, but I pay to fix my roof, why not?
Consider that the concrete and modern military ports and airfields and “improvements”, and all the nifty gadgets they drop when they chitthemselves in Fear are still going to be there when Murka leaves…what’s that worth?
Perhaps a slight rephrasing could also be considered? — aka “The Crooks, the Clowns and the AshkeNazis” …
An interesting read recently stumbled on (from a comment in ZH related to recent JFK assassination papers etc (see http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-27/one-paragraph-you-need-read-jfk-assassination-files-may-change-everything )…
“The out-of-control shadow government in this country threatens the fabric and the future of the United States.”
Meet the SHADOW GOVERNMENT. https://goo.gl/bFYusM
and sub links to …
Jim Marrs, in his book Crossfire, presented the theory that Kennedy was trying to rein in the power of the Federal Reserve, and that forces opposed to such action might have played at least some part in the assassination. Marrs alleges that the issuance of Executive Order 11110 was an effort by Kennedy to transfer power from the Federal Reserve to the United States Department of the Treasury by replacing Federal Reserve Notes with silver certificates. Actor and author Richard Belzer named the responsible parties in this theory as American “billionaires, power brokers, and bankers … working in tandem with the CIA and other sympathetic agents of the government.”
https://www.henrymakow.com/2017/10/jfk-files-the-truth-behind.html outlines the entire scope of the business to do with JFK hit. He leaves out the job in Warm Springs on FDR
Most Interesting article showing how Poroshenko’s priority to get money to keep things going is going to be massive agricultural land sales to foreign corporate interests creating eye watering profits for some.
“Coincidentally” The UK government think tank Chatham House has recommended Ukraine sell off 10 million hectares of prime agricultural land.
Sad part is Poroshenko has no real opposition.
Everytime I come to this page and see this title, it occurs to me that Crooks, Clowns and Nazis would make an excellent title for a new national anthem for the USA.
As for the US, I would substitute Obese for Clowns. Moving one leg past the other looks suspiciously “un-American”. Most likely, it will soon become a certified trrrst trait according to Pindo national security conceptions.
It`s raining Russian paratroopers. As Russsia conducts one of its largest airlifts in history:
How wouls that look in Lvov, or further West?
I’m not sure why Saker is so anti nazi. Nazis are nationalists that put their own people first. They are red-pilled about the globalist Jewish interests. By that standard, Russian nationalists are nazis. Duterte is a nazi. Iriquois, Hopi, and Black Foot Indian tribes are nazi. Funny thing, the swastika is a sacred symbol for many ethnic groups. The swastika is not really a nazi symbol, it’s an ancient symbol that is far deeper than the brief German nazi period.
I’m amazed that Ukrainian nationalists call themselves nazi, yet they allow Jews to rule them. Does not compute…
If people know more they often see things is a new way. As is said, “not sure”…
Saker’s reasons are known to him…
I too am anti nazi. I am anti nazi because I will not assist or support murder…particularly my own.
Is suicidal to support murder as political method.
“The Clowns are really a byproduct of the terminally lunatic Ukrainian nationalist ideology, but they don’t really represent a powerful constituency: the Crooks and the Nazis are far more powerful.”
Absolutely correct as far as the clowns and the crooks are concerned. The Ukronazis, however, look more like a subset of the clowns, albeit literally violently insane ones. The crooks are the ones behind all the suffering and social ills, since they have a well thought-out, evil agenda with foreign (Western) backing. As Ukraine disintegrates and depopulates, the Ukronazis won’t have a mass base for much longer regardless of the appeal of Russophobia. They will have to settle ultimately for the utter garbage population of Galicia.
As an aside, if we look at the West we have a similar line-up there too: The clowns (TV entertainers, self-styled “intellectuals”, transgender/faggot campaigners, etc.), the crooks (corporations, banks, and the media), and the population committed to their hard-core Western Zionazi beliefs. Absolutely fabolous trash — it’s truly awesome!
It seems to me that one more well-aimed molotov cocktail into an armory could solve the whole thing.
Ukraine Today: Western Silence as 20’000 Neo-Nazis March in Kiev
Poroshenko condemns himself for war crimes and genocide
Oliver Stone – Ukraine in Fire (Full Documentary) The Real Story