It is too early to conclude what happened with this aircraft, but since I have been asked about this by email, here are my own, personal and provisional, thoughts:
- Mechanical failure: unlikely. The Tu-154 is a three engine aircraft and an extremely strong beast. It’s safety record is comparable to most aircraft of its time, even though it was often used in extreme conditions other aircraft types did not have to operate in. The Tu-154 had already taken enough altitude to attempt a return to base or even a water landing. The weather that day was good. Besides, the crew did not communicate any problem. Thus the disaster had to be instantaneous.
- Fuel problem: unlikely. Fuel problems are always a prime suspect when a crash occurs, but even if the engines had suddenly experienced problems or even a full shutdown, the pilots would have had the time to report this. Also, like any other aircraft, the Tu-154 can glide and maneuver without power.
- Bird strike: unlikely. I am not even sure that there have ever been a triple engine failure due to a bird strike but even if there has been, they crew could have reported it which it did not. And, again, the case of US Airways flight 1549 has shown that even a catastrophic birdstrike does not prevent a fully loaded airliner from attempting to land.
- Pilot error: highly unlikely. The guys flying this aircraft where extremely experienced and while human error is always possible, it mostly results in situation were it can be reported. The Tu-154 was a very complex aircraft to operate and it had its weaknesses – but these were all very well known to the Russian crews and this crew was a very experienced one.
- Missile: unlikely. The Tu-154 has three engines including one mounted over the top of the rear of the fuselage and a MANPAD type missile warhead does not have the kind of blast radius capable of taking out all three of them. As for bigger missiles, the Black Sea coasts of Russia is very tightly controlled by the Russian military and security services (as is the entire Black Sea) and to get that close to the city of Sochi would be risky and difficult.
- Sabotage/bomb: most likely simply because all other causes are even less likely. True, this was a military aircraft with, supposedly, good security. Alas, I can confirm from personal experience that if you look Russian and speak Russian like a native and if you act the right way, military security in Russia is nowhere near as good as it should be. However, if you speak with an accent or look foreign, and that includes speaking with a Caucasian accent or looking like somebody from the Caucasus, you would have a much harder time beating the controls.
For all these reasons and even though it is way too early to speculate, my of preferred hypothesis is that it was a terrorist act executed by Ukrainian operatives. I hope that I am wrong and that I will be proven wrong in the next 24 hours but at this point in time, this appears to me as the most likely scenario.
One more thing: this tragedy really breaks my heart. Not only did the entire Alexandrov Ensemble perish, but two amazing personalities were on board: Valerii Khalilolv and “Dr Liza“. There are no words to express the loss which the death of all these people represents for Russia. This is why I hope and pray that in spite of why first reaction outlined above, this is not a Ukrainian terrorist attack because if it is, the consequences will be very severe. We should know more very soon.
UPDATE: according to Russian sources the voice recorder of the Tu-154 indicates some kind of emergency malfunction of the aircraft’s wing flaps. If this information is confirmed by the data flight recorder and the Russian experts then this is not a terrorist attack. If so, I am immensely relieved in my sadness. The Saker
I have seen the flash but it does not look like an explosion to me. On the other hand I can not give a positive ID as to what the flash was. It is known that the plane turned around as if trying to return but he didn’t get far and I’m not sure he completed the 180 turnaround. According to officials no distress call was made either by the crew or any, if installed, automatic systems.
We may know more soon if the PTB decide to tell us, word is they have found the flight recorders and will bring them up tomorrow. So far weather will remain fair to good.
Never The Last One http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00ZGCY8KK
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU
The aircraft was reported to be at least 6 km off the coast around the time of the incident. It doesn’t take much in the way of C4/TNT/equivalent to bring down a plane.
If it does turn out to be the result of an explosion, how long after the Russian announcement will it be before ISIS/al Nusra/whatever CIA proxy claims responsibility?
The turn of the plane could be the result of the explosion if there was one. There was no reported communication from the pilot to control tower that they were returning.
The loss of the radar signal signifies explosion. That close to shore, no mountains in the way, the Black Sea environment clear, weather good, and the debris field wide indicates explosion. No communication indicates explosion.
We have some “dots” and we guess at the picture it might represent. Impossible to know if they are indicative or false clues.
I think the black, demented, soulless beasts of radicals or nazis, both sponsored by the Hegemon, are likely.
We have to wait for more “dots”.
My condolences for all the lost lives, the beautiful soul and heart of Dr. Liza and the talented musicians who sang for humanity, the crew and others who harmed no one and should never be forgotten.
We pray that justice be done if this was a black hand action.
News and military forums are alive with conjectures and ‘exclusive inside information’. We will know by tomorrow afternoon, if ‘they’ chose to tell us, what brought the plane down. I’m leaning toward an attack of some kind by someone. If it was an attack there will be a lot of dead ‘someones’ and we’ll never hear about it, officially. However, the ‘old sarjant’ network will hear all and know all by this time tomorrow if not earlier.
I was unsure whether we would make our next big trip to Russia in 2017.
Now I am unsure that we will, once there, ever leave.
And therein, my friend Franz, is the problem. Once you come here it’s very difficult to leave.
When’s the best time to visit Crimea? Definitely not peak season.
After the children return to school in September or early October if you want a beach holiday or if you want tour of Crimea before December arrives.
I can confirm this since we went in September 2016 partly on the advice of family.
Re: I have seen the flash but it does not look like an explosion to me.
The CCTV videos are like time-lapse videos with a new frame once every second. On the video a flash hoes not look like a flash but like a 1 second blip.
FACTS ABOUT FLIGHT RFF 7091 (charts and maps)
ATC File of Sochi Radar Sector at the time in question (0200UTC):
Ask yourself why flight RFF 7091 did not follow a straight-line pattern by crossing Turkish airspace; instead, the planned flight route from Sochi to Lakatia was to evade Turkish airspace and to proceed eastbound Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea, Iran and Iraq to enter Syrian airspace from the south..aren’t the Russian Federation and Turkey in good terms at this point in time?
The Tu-154 operated by the Russian Defense Ministry en route to Syria must be attempting to take off without its flaps and slats extended to proper take-off configuration. The Tu-154’s instability and sudden roll was consistent with known performance of the Tu-154 with the flaps and slats retracted.
The captain may be continued to pull back on the control column in an attempt to keep the Tu-154’s nose raised, which might have created turbulence over the rear-mounted engines and caused the compressor surges. However, the compressor surges would not have significantly reduced the engines’ thrust, and that the Tu-154’s failure to gain speed was due to aerodynamic drag on the aircraft due to the high angle of attack, rather than a loss of engine thrust.
I was also thinking they might have neglected to deploy the flaps before commencing the take-off roll. More than one aircraft has crashed on take-off for that reason, usually getting airborne briefly before stalling out and crashing, usually with rolling due to one wing stalling before the other if they were starting a turn or correcting for a crosswind.
There is a report on Sputnik that the pilot’s last comment had to do with the flaps: “Life.ru referred to the final recording of the cockpit before the crash, in which the pilot can allegedly be heard yelling “the flaps, damn it!” which was followed by “commander, we’re going down.” This has yet to be officially confirmed.”
Since the wreckage is in shallow water and the Flight Data Recorder (the “Orange Box”) and the Cockpit Voice Recorder have apparently been recovered, it should become clear in the next few days what actually occurred. The structural damage to the airframe should be apparent soon depending on how badly the aircraft broke up. If the wings are more or less in one piece, it will be obvious whether the flaps were fully, partially, or not deployed when it hit the water.
Read more: https://sputniknews.com/russia/201612281049056826-russia-plane-crash-cause/
Seems that Russian authorities are now trying to whitewash the real cause of flight RFF 7091’s tragedy.
Again ask yourself: why flight RFF 7091 did not follow a straight-line pattern by crossing Turkish airspace; instead, the planned flight route from Sochi to Lakatia was to evade Turkish airspace and to proceed eastbound Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea, Iran and Iraq to enter Syrian airspace from the south.
As stated before by commenter Ramone: aren’t the Russian Federation and Turkey in good terms at this point in time (diplomatically speaking) , considering that now that these states are supposedly sponsoring and coordinating a new cease fire in Syria.
Turkey is NATO airspace…as a military aircraft it would be barred from entering
The loss of Alexandrov Ensemble is the loss of a national treasure. I send my condolences to all who lost those near and dear to them on that plane, each and every loss of life is a tragedy.
I have personally enjoyed Alexandrov for over 40 years. I know they will rise again but I wonder if, since the long standing director of the ensemble was also lost, they will be the same. Time will tell but for this moment prayers are in order for those we lost this morning and for those whose lives are in grief this day.
The target (Russian culture) and timing (Christmas Day) has (Anglo-)Zionist malice written all over it.
I agree with your post.
They have malice aplenty.
My heart is grieved. Rest in peace those who lost their lives.
I fully agre
I think it’s The Empire trying to get a war started before Trump takes office.
They are desperate. And they are scum.
25 days. Think we can survive the countdown?
I agree, and the best revenge is living well. Russia is ascending and the US (sadly) is descending. This sort of petty, and cruel, sabotage will be repaid in time with lost opportunities and failed dreams, ours, not theirs.
I hope Putin stays the course and the Donald can keep his mind and small hands off of financial gain long enough to defuse this situation. If he is smart, he will. There is nothing that will ruin this country more than one more needless war with a culture we cannot destroy.
Speaking from the US…
No living well is too soft. Go hard or go home. If Ukies add names to the shit list. Send out the assassins. Blow some stuff up. If Zionists re target missiles if need be, let it be known. Send out the assassins. Blow some stuff up. If CIA, using proxies. Send out the assassins. Blow some stuff up esp in Syria. Make it count. Multiples of the dead. If its a bomb it ultimately leads back to Obama. I am not going to approve a post which advocates killing specific individuals – especially when they are innocents with no input into this mess. It’s ideas like this that just keep stirring the pot and maintaining the violence, for thousands and thousands of years. Consequently I have edited the remark relating to Obama. mod-on-duty
Think this is harsh? This is War
Fair enough. Its your site. Regardless, Russia wont turn the other cheek. That Kumbaya stuff gets you killed. It was a bomb. There will be a price to pay. They will pay it.
Making a severe threat, like Obama did after the allegations, without any proof, of Russian hacking (´at the time and in a way of our choosing´) might be an impeachable offense, since it exposes his country to the better judgement of his self described adverse opponent nation and president. I myself have quite a lot of confidence in this, but in the US book this is somewhere between extreme recklessness and high treason: Ánything which goes wrong, be it an accident, a terrorist attack or a false flag by a rogue fraction has a high chance of being interpreted as ´retaliation´ for something which probably never occurred. This is an invitation for counter retaliation. Of course impeachment is technically of no use anymore, except for the record.
Obama and Trump have probably the same security clearance now. Obama accuses Russia of hacking, while Trump calls it nonsense. They can´t both be right, and use the same sources.
Obama should have been impeached a long time ago, but now lets consider this:
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard has introduced to the House of Representatives the Stop Arming Terrorist Act (SATA) which states that the United States must stop arming terrorists.
By making this statement, Rep. Gabbard and her bi-partisan Co-Sponsors, are admitting that the U.S. is arming terrorists. They would not state this if it were not true.
By stating that the U.S. is funding terrorist, who are are enemy, Rep. Gabbard and company are admitting that the Obama Administration, with Congressional approval, is engaging in Treason.
By not citing that the Obama Administration and Congress is committing Treason, Rep. Gabbard
and Co-Sponsor to be party to what is called Misprision of Treason.
American citizens now have a pawn ready to be exchanged for a queen should they wake up and have the guts to demand that their Congressional delegation be informed that they are participating in Treason, and that the only way out is to put the Obama Administration, under arrest.
Do you have any other evidence besides them being desperate and scum?
I’m asking because this is precisely the same kind of reasoning used in Western propaganda against Russia. Do you not want the Russian government to be accused of hacking without clear-cut evidence? But it’s okay to accuse the AngloZionists of taking down a plane of innocent people because of being desperate scum? Double standards?
Look at The Saker’s original post: he provides an actual argument for his hypothesis of it having been a “terrorist act executed by Ukrainian operatives”. Moreover, he clearly designates that hypothesis as his own speculation that may well turn out to be wrong.
Secret Agent, this is not against you personally. I’d like to offer these thoughts to all of the participants in this discussion who’ve made statements like yours. Question yourself and your theories. Not because they’re necessarily wrong, but because they could be wrong. Just in case that something else was the reason for that tragedy, then you’ll want to eliminate that reason in order to prevent further events like this one. So we need evidence, not speculation.
A flash in the sky near Adler around the time the Tu-154 lost radio contact .
The sky was clear and the sea calm. Total loss of contact with no mayday and rapid descent into the sea.
The bomb on the Russian civilian airliner over Egypt
The Su-24 shootdown involving US AWACS
The murder of the Russian medics in a precision strike
The murder of the Russian Ambassador (the removal of the assassin suggests state-sponsored rather than ‘lone wolf’)
The (possible? probable?) murder of the Red Army Choir on Christmas Day (symbollically striking at what Russia stands for)
The increasing pace of these attacks and their style suggests state-sponsorship.
Means, motive, opportunity.
Look at who expresses condolences – Spain, Germany, Syria, Turkey, anyone else? UK? US?
The Ukrops are over-joyed as are the Russian liberals.
All those crimes you are listing are a shame and a cowardice, they attack civilians, doctors, ambassadors, real humanitarian workers, singers and dancers, trying to achieve in this shameful way what they are not able to do in the battlefield. If I were the Russian officials I would publish once for all the evidences found on who the culprits of all these crimes are in order to them not being able to appear in public with the head up never more.
This is aimed to be a direct shoot at the Russian soul, especially the Russian Army soul whose hearts have always been raised sky high by the joyful Alexandrov Ensemble, as were going to be those valiants destined in Hmeymin after the well deserved and main victory in Aleppo.
If I were able to sing and dance that way, damn! I myself would go to celebrate with the guys in Syria. I wonder whether any other choir or ballet in the Russian Federation could go instead.
They hit the russian soul because the russian soul is the most dangerous weapon in the world against these devils aiming to oppress us all.
The aircraft was military but Sochi airport (actually at Adler) is a civilian airport. The problem lies with sleepers who may be activated just once, then disappear (metaphorically, not literally as that would raise warnings).
A report on Zvezda shows the Tu-154 apparently stationed at a normal civilian gate shortly before take-off.
A 3-man Zvezda news crew was on board the aircraft.
If, and I repeat if, it was a sabotage then those who did it might have not taken into account the refueling landing. If it was a time controlled device the plane would fall perhaps above Turkey or in the Mediterranean Sea.
Unlikely. It was a military flight flying over third party countries. It would have filed a flight plan well in advance. In addttion, the range of the Tu-154 is only 2500 km fully loaded. The straight line distance from Moscow to Hymeim is about 2300 km. Without refueling, there would be effectively zero fuel for emergency diverts. etc. Consequently, refueling was inevitable.
Interesting how CIA director Brennan publicly warned Obama not to retaliate for the “Russian Hacking”.
The warning was the same as the warning the IDF leaders give to their troops – “You can do what you like as long as you don’t get caught doing it”
Obama’s explicit threat and the subseqwent actions wpould be sufficient cause for him to be called in in any normal police investigation, but, hey he’s the US president and above the law, so what’s the biggy?
thanks Saker for sacrificing your recuperation time to comment. What bothers me about the last two vile attacks on Russia is the public nature of them and, at the risk of sounding exhibiting more paranoia than what is necessary for prudence these days, the quality of planning which appears to be involved. It is as if there is a team somewhere examining targets, maps, videos, newscasts, public schedules etc. and brainstorming events for the greatest impact in terms of target and timing.
I know the nature of the beast here and it is entirely possible as there is an ongoing subterranean coup happening in the political sphere of public life at the highest levels here in the USA by people who operate world wide and have their own “big picture” time wise for the future of humanity.
The ambassador’s death was filmed on camera and sent all over the world and this latest explosion, timed for Christmas day, occurred shortly after take off which means that not only is much of the Western public at home with the TV running but also, since the debris is only about 1-2 miles off shore, the cause will be discovered very shortly. ( The definite cause of the Egyptian airliner which was blown up several months ago was only announced recently and long after the story was “cold”).
Plus, what is even more hideous and unbelievable, the deaths of the members of the Russian Army choir can be palmed off as military casualties to the Western audience and unfortunate but acceptable targets. Perverse. yes.
I would suggest showing each one of these murdered folks as people with families and personalities like how the Western press would do. Line up outside the guilty embassy’s building holding pictures of them. i
These were artists and humanitarians and members of the press on an “entertain the troops at Christmas”
endeavor. My deep condolences to their families, their colleagues and the Russian people. It appears that no one is “off limits”.
Well. To be fair, they are military casualties – and in a war – these folks are a legitimate target for an adversary absolutely.
Afterall – they’re going to gee up the troops in a war.
The problem is – depending on who the adversary is – this would most likely be committed but an adversary that is not officially at war with Russia.
Just heard about the crash. Very sad news. It’s worse for the friends and relatives of the victims when tragedy happens on an important holiday like this. There still is not any news about what caused the crash, as far as I’ve seen.
The cheering of the catastrophe and the terror attack against russian ambassador by the elites in the west is heinous, but after all, this is the type of western values we are familiar with today..
Investigation Not Considering Terrorist Attack as Main Reason of Tu-154 Crash
“Tu-154 took off from the Chkalovsky airfield, where passengers and luggage were carefully inspected and checked. A refuel was planned in Mozdok, but due to the weather it was moved to Adler, and thus, the information that the plane will be refueled at Sochi airport was not available in advance,” the source said adding that the plane was under guard while being refueled and there was no catering.
“At the moment there is no evidence in favor of a terrorist attack, and neither security services nor the investigation do consider this as a major reason,” the source concluded.”
Well, but wikipedia has already published it has been a bomb, look:
Well, curiously, or not so, while my comment was in pending that article has been midified, of course, if not, I would have not made this comment at all.
Surely WIKI is just a DMZ of current narrative. Israelis have often been thrown off of various topics on WIKI. But they come scurrying back. It may have something to do with Satanyahu offering them pizza money and credits for Israeli Univerities – may God spare us from such anomalies.
Wiki is a battleground also. Two Ukie CIA agents there are ‘Volunteer Marek’ and ‘MyVeryBestWishes’.
LOL. I did a lot of editing on Wikipedia after the Kiev coup, and those two were the most vicious hatemongers. I gave up editing Ukraine-related articles there once it became clear that Russians were winning the real, as opposed to information, war.
With any kind of mechanical failure, pilots always have time to radio that they have a problem. That, plus the timing and the symbolic significance of who was on board, makes it very hard for me to doubt that this was a terrorist act. I really hope that Russia will have the sense to make public what caused this tragedy if that is indeed the case. No harm will be done to Russian-US relations if it does so. Everybody knows that Obama is doing everything in his power to poison those relations.
I went by the name of Demian before. This is the first time I’m making a post at the new Saker site.
Exactly what I’ve noticed viewing the discussions on different subjects. Truth is not allowed. And f.e. Russian sources like RT or Sputnik are non reliable according to these agents you mentioned
OK great to see other editors here. these 2 are rabid anti Russian. You will be amazed with this link. Historic manipulation of Wiki. Volunteer Marek then was Radeksz. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Case/Eastern_European_mailing_list#Radeksz
Scroll up to top of link to see all these agents names. Proof.
“wikipedia has already published it has been a bomb, look”
I held my nose and did look. Didn’t see that claimed there. Elsi, wikiziopedia is mostly a waste of time.
Not always, you see that even The Saker quotes it from time to time, and, indeed, I am finding it really useful as an start point and connect dots on different topics, obvioulsy, taking into account that it is made by Western sources mainly.
I found that the info at wikiziopedia is generally worthless regarding geopolitical subjects. Both the info and source materials are seriously biased which make the site a poor choice as a place to start looking for info. I found it more efficient time wise to simply skip the prominently placed wikiziopedia advert in searches and go down the lists looking for other sites.
There is another reason to avoid wikiziopedia, as well. The really is a part of the psywar used by the zpc/nwo to corrupt the narrative. It also is designed as a handy resource for their disinfo elements to use, hence the way info there is consistently biased. Every time somebody visits that site it reinforces its role and keeps it at the top in searches. By not using wikiziopedia, one confounds that corruption, just like boycotting zio-gay media deprives that corrupt institution of its influence.
Clearly some editing going on as now the page does not mention a bomb. If it were me I might not wish to announce what I knew right away. I can think of a number of reasons to say nothing, or perhaps conclude officially that it was an accident, no more.
Such a terrible tragedy – just before New Year… I am terribly saddened at this news.
Just saw Rogue One – an interesting movie for the Christmas season.
“I can think of a number of reasons to say nothing, or perhaps conclude officially that it was an accident, no more.”
I agree. When you admit foul play, you get under the pressure “to do something”, which can be exactly, what the “enemy” wants.
Maybe they are cooking something “bigger” as below commenter TerraHertz wrote on ZeroHedge:
“If there are MSM hints that Russia decided this was downed by the USA, AND THEN some some major US target (say, the aircraft carrier CVN-69 Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Mediterranean) gets sunk “by a Russian carrier killer sub” as the MSM was foreshadowing recently, no one will believe it wasn’t Putin taking revenge.
The fact that Putin is already upset about his friend the ambassador being assassinated, and is probably even more upset about the choir and others, also works to lessen the chances he’d be able to stay frosty and counter such a false flag effort by the US Leftists to kick off WWIII in order to avoid a Trump presidency.
Russia doesn’t even have to actually attack. There just needs to be a Western public perception that it must have been Russia, when there’s an attack on some US/NATO asset. I think what we are seeing is more of the setup to a major false flag attack. Something like the sinking of a US aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean, by “a Russian carrier-killer sub.” Google this phrase in the MSM in the last few weeks, lots of hits.
CVN-69 Dwight D. Eisenhower is in or near Marseille, France atm, ie the Mediterranean.
Also the kinds of stuff happening to Russia in the last few days seem calculated to throw Putin off balance, so unable to play chess as well as he usually does.
The Leftists/Soros-ites desperately need a war. I think they are doing their best to be ‘subtle’ and make it look like Russia would have a reason to attack.”
Your post is unneccessarily abusive plainsman – offensive and angry. There really was no need for it. I’m not posting it – but letting you know why. If you want to send another post more moderately phrased I’m sure it will be approved. mod-on-duty.
The heavenly choirs are singing better today.
Pamyat im vechnaja.
Memory Eternal for them.
So true. It is our great hope in Christ, nothing that is good will be lost.
Condolences to the families of the Alexandrov Ensemble, Dr. Liza, and others. And, to the people of the Russian Federation and Donbass on their loss.
In honor of them, a link to one of the most haunting pieces of music I have ever heard:
‘Hymn Of The Cherubim’ – Tchaikovsky, by the USSR Ministry of Culture Chamber Choir
A terrible tragedy today.
This and other wonderful spiritual music from Russia on “Sacred Treasures: Choral Masterworks from Russia” @ https://www.amazon.com/Sacred-Treasures-Chorale-Mast-Various/dp/B000000X8J/ref=pd_sim_15_1?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=KG2WTA5NCDSDQTW32SJ6
My condolences to all.
If it was not accidental, I would look at high tech weapons like lasers or electronic attack, or low or non-explosive device in critical location. perhaps leading to decompression — but it way too early to consider that. It could also be a weird natural event like ball lightening, unusual atmospheric condition, or hit by a piece of falling space junk. First the investigation, which will be thorough, and facts, and then perhaps speculations and such.
I have to say Blue that I think you are clutching at straws.
Waiting is wise, but we stand at 99.9% terrorist act by someone, IMHO.
Agreed. If not for the immediately preceeding attacks on the medics and the ambassaddor, then mechanical problem would be my guess. The third such event in such a short time strikes me as malice.
If something happens once, it is an accident. If it happens twice, it is a coincidence. If it happens three times, it is enemy action.
We don’t know that now. If that’s the case it will either become known, or Russia will decide not to make it public and will handle it in other ways. In any case, the Sherlock Holmes advice of ‘it is a capital mistake to theorize before the facts are known’ applies, and feeds the enemy, which is always ready to pounce on errors. Analysis should be conservative and methodical.
There is time; there is no compelling reason to assume or conclude anything, which is a cognitive trap and leads to confirmation bias; early assumptions can hamstring responses and lead to incorrect actions.
Just keep a list of all possible explanations and narratives, and possible responses to each — and in the meantime take care of the business at hand which is recovery and handling the shock and grief. Analysis, like possible revenge, is best served cold.
Dear The Saker,
As you say it is heart breaking – truly tragic, not only to lose the Alexandrov Ensemble (bar 3 members who didn’t fly), but two personalities: Valerii Khalikolv and “Dr Liza” and the 8 crew members.
A deadly strike at the heart of Russia – this will be deeply felt. So upsetting and on a major Christian day for non – orthodox – maybe another symbol/sign.
They really want to break the Russian spirit.
My prayers are with the families of everyone who died on the plane.
If it is a ‘they’ I doubt the aim is to “break the Russian spirit” (nor will it) but to spark a premature or rash confrontation with a fair measure of spite and malice in the mix.
Three full passenger planes, a very public assassination, and various other provocations. Not softball.
…they never break spirit of Russians ppl… they all know they are already in war directly in NOVORUSSIA not directly in SYRIA…they also know others side is slowly loosing war….
I think the Rothschild-Sorros-Clinton forces don’t expect or care to break the Russian spirit, but *do* want to create a Western public perception that the Russians (Putin in particular) would be enraged enough to commit a WWIII-starting action. Such as sinking a US aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean.
The Elites and their Leftist sock puppets desperately (for their very lives) need to get WWIII started, like right now. It needs to be well underway before Trump takes office, so he is either prevented from taking office, or does but has no chance of calling WWIII off.
However it’s crucial for the Elites to make it look like Russia started the war. They don’t need ‘a war’, they specifically need ‘a war started by Russia.’ Otherwise too many people will know it was the Elites behind it if America or NATO is seen to attack first. That knowledge would substantially shorten the Elite’s life expectancy.
Blowing up a plane full of cultural heroes, Russian national icons, and humanitarian angels, on Christmas day, is exactly the kind of heinous crime the Satanists would commit. Both because they’d think it was cool, and because they know even the MSM-brainwashed anti-Russian sheep in the west will understand how far beyond bearable Russia would find such an attack. So of course Russia would strike back, right?
Now the recent MSM foreshadowing of a US aircraft carrier sinking makes a lot more sense. Google for ‘Russian carrier killer sub being hunted by US navy in the Mediterranean’ in the period of 8th to 12th Dec 2016. There are multiple articles, all emphasizing the key phrase ‘carrier killer’. As if subs being able to sink a carrier, or Russian subs being in the Mediterranean are in any way unusual. But now suddenly it’s newsworthy? This was clearly foreshadowing – where the public mind is given an ‘explanation’ for a planned psyop event’s nature and cause before it happens.
http://www.gonavy.jp/CVLocation.html gives US carrier locations.
CVN-69 Dwight D. Eisenhower looks like the target.
Now it’s looking pretty certain the TU154 was downed by a bomb on board. Wreckage scattered before it hit the water, flash seen in video of the sky, no radio mayday. There’s also this Sorcha article (unverifiable as usual) http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2194.htm
While Russia is officially saying it was an accident, but also opening a criminal inquiry. It would appear they fully understand the situation and all its implications.
I have to say, thank you Russia, and Mr Putin, for your extraordinary perseverance. It seems they recognize the evil that must be held back for the next few weeks before it can even begin to be rooted out. I hope Donald Trump is able to sit down in the White House, and quickly get these psychopaths into handcuffs. Finding the people responsible for this ‘accident’ and handing them over to Russian authorities is the least we can hope for. Will there turn out to be Israeli/Mossad involvement, and what will that do to Trump’s pro-Israel stance? We’ll see. Maybe we’ll find out if that’s another negotiating mask or not. Putin should give Trump a personal briefing on our tribal friends and their history and methods. Perhaps an English translation of “100 years together”?
The prospect of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump forming a personal alliance to combat the Evil, Satanist, global-cull-pushing murderous Elites and their minions in the MSM, many national governments (Merkel, etc) and the Zionist/Neocons, clearly terrifies the Elites. As well it should.
Putin and his government understand this is a desperate stand against evil, and many will fall. I don’t think he expected to lose the Red Army Choir though.
One last observation. In any real shooting war, all the aircraft carrier groups will be sunk in the first hours anyway. So sacrificing one to start a needed war is no loss at all. In fact it’s about the only thing an aircraft carrier is good for unless there’s nothing going on but trivial fights against goatherds.
Any AIP submarine is called aircraft killer since it can’t be detected till it fires.
USA already tried the detection and failed against a Swedish AIP….since then they are with massive propaganda to bring more money into the machine since now everyone knows that an Aircraft carriers are ONLY effective against weaker countries. And that’s unacceptable lol.
They are calling the new tech sub, those AIP subs like that to have a bigger budget.
The new Russian AIP is not ready.
Being optimistic, 2021. They have other ways to sunk those ships.
Russia focus is in its nuclear capabilities.
PS. I’ve read about Saker recuperation, I hope everything is fine with him.
Your citing of the book “100 years together” (I assume you mean the book “200 years together”) made me recall that in the early stages of Trump’s campaign for president, it was reported that he had a copy of Hitler’s speeches at his bedside that he was studying to enable him to better parley his message. Was that a “fake news” story? Seems like eons ago, that era before this fake news craze.
turbine engines contain explosive forces and, if this kinetic energy is released suddenly through internal structural failure, explode and distribute very hard, sharp, metal shards of hot engine bit – these with enough energy to act like shrapnel. If another turbine engine is too near, then a cascade effect may be, if not expected, then at least something to worry the engineers… I have supervised repairs on exploded turbine. Not a pretty job, like razors, masses of it, and all through everything.
the boffins will have the dope on it if that happened it will be pretty obvious – and engines do fail. They also fail for not-natural reasons…
Many may consider that, if this was a crime and a sabotage, whether saying so at this critical time is a wise thing. But I know what I see…murder in the ugliest political sphere and crime in the lowest sewers of politics. Maybe I’m mistaken, it happens.
Coincidences happen, but don’t bet on them… In the political sphere? Forget it…
This awful event…prayers for families and souls…
One more link in the list of coincidences:
In November 2016, the Polish government suddenly announced that traces of TNT were found on the Tu-154 that crashed at Smolensk in 2010, killing Poish President Kaczynski and his entourage (96 people – 88 passengers and 8 crew). On December 24, Poland demanded return of the wreckage as a condition to normalising relations with Russia. [Cynic – more likely an attempt to frame the incident as terrorism, and pin Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism]. Putin stated that cockpit voice recording revealed someone had entered the cockpit demanding the plane land immediately and people should cease speculating.
An interesting twist on the tragedy:
Some time back, Bill Browder, an oligarch of variable nationality, managed to convince the US regime to pass the Magnitsky act, intended to sanction those Russians allegedly involved in the supposed murder of his accountant(?) Magnitsky in Russian jail.
Following the death of Khalilov and Dr Glinka in the TU-154 tragedy, there is a proposal for a Khalilov-Glinka law aimed at sanctioning those who gloated over the tragedy.
Would such a law be sensible? It could allow the Rusisans to react against Magnitsky. However, it would imply that Magnitsky and the Tu-154 tragedy were comparable, and both were being exploited for political ends.
And, let us not forget what happened 25 years ago today.
Even if it isn’t foul play, it’s coincidences like those that live indefinitely.
While my first thoughts are similar to yours (though I’d go more for electronic warfare), I’d really like to urge caution. Firstly, there are always alternative explanations that we don’t think of immediately, and just being ‘possible and plausible’ doesn’t make something a fact. And secondly, whatever the ‘truth’ may be, it’s probably better for the international scenario and consequences that it be an ‘accident’ with no ‘culprit’ to be punished (as Delmar said above).
Quite possibly electronic. Both sides have secret tech to fry aircraft / space shuttle. Been done before. Each knows the other has it. Probably this is the US hacking response Obama spoke of. He is an evil SOB. A sore loser. The Cabal that made Obama has bad Rogue CIA operatives. They act now knowing Russia will need to be careful in her response. They attempt to make Russia do something to put Trump offside. Get it?
They have even found a man near the coast who was injured by the falling debris. Which indicates that fragments of the aircraft were scattered as they were coming down, suggesting that the aircraft exploded in the air,”
A very sad day for humanity
Rest In Peace, brave souls
Russia cannot admit that they are under attack by western forces, i.e. bombed plane over the Sinai, fighter shot down, helicopter blown up, ambassador killed and now this . If they do admit then they have to put up a fight or look like a bunch of cowards. It’s best to ignore or downplay or shift blame. They seem to be trying to wait this out for one reason or another…I doubt they will get that chance.
Can they wait it out to Jan. 20? New administration might make a big difference.
In fact, if Russia has hard evidence of these attacks which could be turned over to Trump that would make his job of purging the crazy hawks and consolidating his power that much easier.
One never knows what sort of ‘footsy’ might be being played under the table.
As blue said – if they have real evidence they need to turn it over to Trump & Flynn & Tillerson tomorrow.
First off, I wish to express my condolences to the surviving family member of the victims, and to the Russian people and nation on this tragic occurrence.
People, Russia, we all have been warned that there would be Russian ‘body bags’ because of Russian interference in Syria, by State Dept. spokesperson John Kirby. These attacks recently on Russia and her citizens is a blatant reminder of what Kirby threatened. U.S. elite , international Jewry and their dark hand is almost certain to the 99% degree behind this tragedy and the Ambassadors assassination. The Russian government should , and needs to be ready to accept that these international villains and criminals have essentially’ taken the gloves off’ . Therefore , Russia should act accordingly. The Middle East is target rich to retaliate. And Russia need not worry because the U.S. is in no position to commit itself to a major conflict. The Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. military have informed their masters( international Jews and their hangers-on) that the U.S. cannot engage in another conflict until at least 2022, at the earliest.
Having said that, Russia should bring down the’ iron fist’ and target wherever the agents of hegemony and belligerence are gathered, whether in Syria, or the peripheral. If I was Putin, and the evidence showed sabotage, by whatever means, I would just act the complete , unpredictable fool and scare the shit out of them by firing a heavy ICBM with an empty warhead right at the Pentagon. Just do a world wide ‘oh shit’ moment. Ha, but realistically, Russia needs to send a strong message.
I also yesterday read a report about some Jew journalist at the rag New York Daily News gloating at and praising the murder of the Russian ambassador. Russia, your enemies are primarily international Jews. They have been for 100 years now. Teach them a lesson. Give Hezbollah advanced manpads and other such stuff. This is no time to be on a defensive posture, no matter how wise and pragmatic the world knows you to be.
Peace be upon you all this holiday season.
why an empty warhead? it should be fully loaded!
An article posted on RT with pictures and interviews with some of the friends and families of those lost:
NPR media coverage I have heard takes the form of “a Russian military plane went down over the Black Sea killing all aboard…” Sometimes a brief mention of who the passengers were. No eulogizing for sure. No sympathy.
From the NYT: “The cause of the crash is under investigation, although initial Russian news media reports indicated it was a technical failure rather than terrorism.
The Russian military has had only minor casualties throughout its deployment in Syria, but the country has experienced a series of setbacks in recent days.
On Monday, the Russian ambassador to Turkey was assassinated at an art exhibit in Ankara, with the killer yelling, “Don’t forget Aleppo, don’t forget Syria!”
That came not long after forces from the Islamic State recaptured the storied Syrian city of Palmyra, forcing the Russian garrison that had been stationed there since helping to take the city last spring to flee.”
They do go into some detail about the choir and its history – factual/neutral tone. The lead part of the story is the Syria connection.
“No eulogizing for sure. No sympathy.”
Russians are “the enemy” in the zio-gay media, the freaks think its a good thing when Russians die.
Retaliation Promised: Russian Ambassador’s Murder Justified, Even Praised Across the West
“The Western media does not perform “journalism,” but rather reflects the thinking and designs of Western policymakers, politicians and power brokers. That the media appears unanimously spinning the attack as “retaliatory,” after spending the last week promising “retaliation” is if nothing else the worst case of institutional self-incrimination in recent memory. More likely, it is a blunt, ugly gesture toward Russia.
Unfortunately for the West, they find themselves threatening the world and celebrating the murder of ambassadors shot in the back by terrorists not from a position of strength, but from a position of profound and growing weakness. It is a vicious cycle that will only further undermine their legitimacy, diminish their influence and accelerate their decline.”
The slimy Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), a rabidly anti-Russian propaganda repeater station for the US State Department, purposely misrepresents the passenger list by always referring to it as a “Military Transport” to imply it was carrying soldiers instead of Dr. Lisa, medical aid, and the Alexandrov choir, none of which are ever mentioned in any newscast I have heard. They are beyond despicable.
IMHO…Sabotage performed by a stay behind fifth columnist ?? Unless proven otherwise without any doubts ?? Even then, I would be still suspicious ??
The debris field and the lack of communication with the crew prior to crash clearly points to an explosion (bomb or electronic attack).
If Russia says that the cause of the crash is mechanical failure or pilot error when it is not really the case, they will be making a foolish and grave error. In fact, I will suggest that their motive will be “impure’. They will putting the financial interests of very wealthy Russians ahead of the general well being of ordinary Russians.
It’s Time To Take The Gloves Off And Punish The Neo-Cons Otherwise This Will Happen Again!
Please,it violates the rules to use caps in sentences. I corrected it this time.MOD
Anton, that is exactly what the Russian Government is doing; they are saying that it was a technical and human error, not terrorism.
Not exactly. They are saying it is not being considered as terrorism now, but the minister of transportation is saying all possibilities will be considered. They are being cautious and not getting ahead of the investigation — and they have not even found the black boxes yet or been able to do any forensic work on the plane. Saying it was terrorism without evidence to back it up would be a blunder.
I suggest that if they say that it will mean they do not wish at this time to engage in trading punches but, as with a master of martial arts (systema especially), use the (over) extended fist or foot in an advantageous way at an opportune time, often not so much as even avoiding being hit but what you do with it, the position, and the energy there.
Every attack is a commitment with preparation, residual motion, and remaining position. If this turns out to be an attack and not an accident, then there will be traces of preparation, world reactions (even if not public), and possibilities for countering such attacks which had not existed before such provocation — but that does not necessarily mean direct counter-attack. Even a signal that the Russians know who did and how will elicit defensive response with commitment of resources and reduction of freedom of action from the attackers. If it was through electronic attack then information about capabilities and tactics would have been exposed. Such an attack is not an isolated incident but is part of an overall sequence of events with ramifications in the future, and effects on the attackers (if no anticipated direct counter is done then it throws doubt on the attackers policies, possibly leading to overconfidence, fear of being ineffective, loss of reputation with competing factions, or using up or ‘burning’ of assets, for examples).
The purpose is not to ‘punish’ attackers, but to confuse, tire, disable and stop them, in a strategic sense. Russia has said it does not (at this time) consider this a terrorist attack — and yet that accusation is going around the world without Russia needing to say it, nor give any evidence at all of it, putting it in a position to need to defend such an accusation. They could say in the future “We have no proof that the plane went down from being attacked — we haven’t found the cause with confidence”, which would not exclude it as a possibility, and yet avoid being drawn into a confrontation of words and memes: the empire can be accused of terrorism and yet Russia cannot be accused of blaming it on terrorism, while Russia can still take ‘purely precautionary steps’ to preclude such events in the future, while trust in, and influence and prestige of, the US is further diminished among important players. The US may go around yelling ‘we didn’t do it’ trying to counter various accusations from bloggers and such, but it can only make it’s situation worse by that; the threats the US has made is coming back to haunt it. It destroys itself, as Clinton and the Democrats have done in the last election.
Interesting and well thought through and written comment.
Well stated! Bravo!
The goal is the important thing, not “getting even”. In fact, getting even, reprisals, are actually both illegal and unwise, as such actions would undermine the goal.
The goal is a multipolarworld with a sovereign Russia… Not reprisal.
We will pretend it was of an unknown cause… Until it’s the right time…
I’ll make a relevant point about this That I haven’t seen,
If it was the West (including the illegitimate Ukie Government) – and that is the conclusion the Russians draw and they publicly announce this then that can potentially play right into their enemies hand.
What will then happen? The West will False Flag attack a Ukrainian airliner or sink a Ukrainian ship in the Black Sea and immediately blame it on the Russians as Russian retaliation for the downed Tu-154.
It’s fairly obvious this is an obvious trap laid for the Russians that they’re no doubt we’ll aware of.
It’s called controlling the process of escalation. I’d the Russians confidently proclaim it was a mechanical fault they take away this route of escalation from their adversaries.
Elucidating, even brilliantly insightful comments from blue and Julian.
If we can safely assume that the brilliant geopolitical gameplay of VVP and his coterie continue, and that the very wise conjectures of blue and Julian are the strategies they are pursuing, then what are the next options for them?
If this was a provocation and there’s no response, what’s to prevent the provacateurs from continuing, or even ramping up, their iniquitous attacks? It’s a death by a thousand cuts, and at some point the cuts will either compel the desired aggressive response, or succeed in subduing the opponent by increasing the ire of the public, weakening morale, and creating a loss of confidence in the leaders.
At some point there must be a response. Sending those Kalibres into the AZ’s strategy caves around Aleppo after US/Nato attacked the Syrian army seemed to have hit home, judging from the impotent rage of the bullies who couldn’t acknowledge what had happened.
I would imagine that Russia needs to up the ante along similar lines, however not just lopping off more heads of the hydra, but striking closer to its heart. And may their aim be true!
Yes. Exactly !
Most important right now is to not be seduced into playing “Let’s you and him fight” (their favorite gambit — historically very successful) by a ((third party)).
Patience until clarity is achieved.
It’s looking more like an accident now. Yet the karmic blowback from the US threats against Russia continue.
In the meantime I ran across this video, and more by the same channel, which are illuminating, and in one of them at least it is said that these principle do not apply only to hand-to-hand combat, but generally. It would not be surprising if Putin understood these things.
The Kadochnikov Systema: a Short Introduction to the Kadochnikov Systema
Perhaps the hit in Ankara was a long game including booking of the exhibit directly across Rd from US embassy. A lax security environment was the result. The locals could be counted on to relax their guard in the shadow of the secure behemoth perched a few scant meters away. A false sense of security was generated and exploited. Therefore the selection of venue for the art display the ambassador was attending was part of the kill chain.
Rest in peace brave souls, your music will be missed. The Russian can live with physical attacks and not pay much attention to the hurt, after all physical pain is temporary but in this case it is the Russian soul that has been wounded – watch out now, the Bear will strike back.
Interpreting scanned images of musical instruments could not be easy. The Choir’s may have been all 2 easy to scan. Its a substantial plane.
Alexandrov Ensemble full concert: https://youtu.be/jA1ISrcQ5zY
Dr Liza (from RT):
– abrupt crash, no ‘Mayday’ call
– CCTV blast recordings (at least 2), not verified.
– debris all over
– Tu154 was at very end of its service (35yrs+ old).
Option 1 : Sudden mech failure. Given the age of the aircraft, quite possible. No time for May Day? Rare but possible.
2. Terror attack.
Adler / Sochi airport is civilian in area very close to Dagestan n Chechnya. Many locals are from there and have no accent. If it is true that refuelling wasn’t scheduled in Adler, it could be ‘ad hoc’ opportunistic action.
Distant one would be that bomb was carried all the way from Moscow. Not likely if they took of from military facility.
The enemy struck a soft spot. Very painful one, not only for Russia, but also for art fans.
It takes a village to raise one artist, here many more were lost…
The shot down passenger plan3 – initial state reaction was denial, Same as now.
It is a bitter pill for state to swallow, especially while trying to minimize Syria impacts…
History will tell if Syria adventure was a good move or not for Russia.
As Americans would always ask after Vietnam – what is the exit strategy? None that I can see, and that is mistake IMHO (rather Russia is going in deeper and deeper).
Mir prahu. Great loss.
I agree. The lack of a Mayday call is very suspicious! However, I would also be inclined to think that Mossad or the CIA helped the Ukrainians!
When I heard this I was filled with great sadness as such talented people have died.
At this time we do not know how it happened just that much loved musicians and charity workers are gone.
The 26th will be a national day of mourning and it will be an opportunity to show love and appreciation to those that have been lost and to their families and friends.
Then comes the work of identifying how it happened and who was responsible.
This will be done in an orderly way.
There are 3 people who did not fly, but there are past members I am sure who can help to rebuild, plus new musicians who will be proud to be part of this military tradition.
Dr Liza was an inspiration and will not be forgotten, rather her legacy will be the inspiration of others to look beyond themselves and strive to help others.
At times like this it brings home what is important and real about Russian society; that they value the beauty and magic of a musical culture and that everyone feels and appreciates it.
What a tragedy! Condolences to the families and the whole Russian nation for this horrible loss!
Reminds me of the crash of TU-134 in St. Petersburg, which carried the Russian team from Iran building the nuke power plant their. That collective murder was never explained.
The mad zionazi dogs strike again. I hope that the double citizenship for those who emigrated from Russia to israhell is terminated at once because of the sleeper cells obviously embedded into the Russian military as well.
First of all, I forgot to put my name on the comment with comparison to the Tu-134 crash.
Still in shock at this unbelievable tragedy, another thought I have is why the plane was not escorted by the Russian fighter jets since, as I understand, it was flying to Syria over hostile territory? Can’t believe the lack of precaution on the Russian part!
I agree, hard to believe. Same applies to lack of security for killed ambasador. Easy targets in both cases. Way too easy. I am affraid lessons will not be learned.
Do you think the people who did it if they were Ukrainian had help from a foreign power. I would say yes. But who would have played the biggest part out of a list of suspects such as cia , mossad or British.?
Clearly at night birds do not fly.
Being a terrorist attack with a bomb is also doubtful: the plane was diverted to Adler airport for refuelling after the foreseen stop at the Mozdok air base was cancelled due to bas weather.
A missile strike? It is not as in movie: a big aircraft does not disintegrate if hit by a relatively small rocket and was too low to do that by depressurization. Moreover at night the bright wakeof a rocket would have been seen.
A technical/pilot error?
Consider that the route to the Syrian airbase was not, of course, the one depicted on media outlets, i.e. flying above Turkey. It is the logical shortest route, but not today and for a military Russian aircraft. Just consider that if that was the intended course, it could have be flown directly by a Tu-154 even of the b2 type. The route was instead, I suppose, the one flying, after the refuelling at Mozdok, above the Caspian Sea, then Iran, than Iraq, than Syria up to the Mediterranean Sea, with the final approach back to the Khmeimim air base coming from the sea. A long trip this last, requiring the maximum fuel also since there are few alternate airports along the route, in particular at the end.
The unforeseen Adler stop over stressed further the fuel issue.
The aircraft, taking off from Adler airport toward the sea, had, hence, to made a U-turn, probably right, to come back to the planned route, and the pilot decided to turn back almost immediately to reduce the fuel consumption of a longer route above the Black Sea to gain altitude. He need altitude since just behind Sochi there are the highest mountains of the Caucasus (up to 4000-5000 m).
The Tu-154 is a safe, well done aircraft, but not a jet that forgives a mistake.
Now we have a big, overloaded aircraft making a sharp U-turn at full trottle, tilted on one side, during a steep ascension, with the T-shaped tail surfaces in the “ideal” situation to go on the “shadow of the wake” of the aircraft, loosing their effectiveness to control the plane…with also a phenomenon known as the “inversion of the commands”…and at low altitude.
Look here what can happen in such conditions to a big aircraft, even with traditional tail surfaces: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UG85NYN659I
Debris field…If plane wreck will be found in one relativly “small area” crew error will have high probability but we can read that first debris were found near shore and plane fell few km into Black Sea.
I am curious where this plane could fell if it will be refuled in Mozdok as was the plan.
And if there was some delay in Sochi airfield.
Maybe “someon plan” was drop this plane above Caspian Sea or above Iranian mountains throwing “a pebble” into the gardent of Russian – Iran relations. Similiar to Turkey-Russian relations after ambasador Karłow assasination.
This might suggest that eventual bomb was planted in Moscow…or rather oposite “device” was so small that could be hidden in pocket and plane was just “target of oportunity” maybe if they stick to the plan and refuel in Mozdok this tragedy would not have place.
Thanks for your thoughts. I’m neither a pilot nor an aerodynamics expert, but they sound rather plausible to me. Only question – wouldn’t an experienced pilot know about this risk?
There are many species of birds that fly at night.
Here’s a source.
I once researched this for a chapter in a fiction I edited.
An incident mid-air with a Citation II over China needed to be fact-based.
So, here’s info about many types of birds that fly at night.
I don’t think birds would get into all three engines, nor cause explosion, if the videos indicated that the flash is related. If there was a bird collision that caused this tragedy, a call to the tower would have occurred.
The biggest “tell” is no pilot-to-tower communication.
I do not believe pilots don’t have time to call. These guys were probably military jet pilots in their early careers and then transport pilots.
In fact, they were lifting to altitude at two-minutes into the flight. That’s a window of danger and communication readiness.
We have to wait for facts. But we all sense this is highly probable an attack. It would be so banal, a double sadness, if it were otherwise.
Re species of birds who flight at night, I can not tell which species concretely, I am quite ignorant as far as birds are concerned, but since living near a bay which contitues an important rest place for migrating birds amongst year´s estations I can confirm hearing a great scandal, even at wee hours, produced by the birds flying at night, most probably in order to orientate their fellows in the darkness.
thank your Larchmonter445 for your observation that birds indeed can flight at night: anyway this is not a period of bird mass migrations in that part of Europe.
Birds do fly at night…and often crash into radio frequency antennas as the RF confuses the bird’s magnetic navigation ability, and of course they can’t see much either… Bird strike and a cascade of turbine explosions is possible. Don’t bet on this though – it’s a far-out scenario.
Sadly, I believe it was a criminal act. If so, this will be obvious (but secret) in a short time. And the evidence and the crime always tell who did it and what happened. That knowledge is a weapon. Only a fool or someone using it as a weapon would speak this knowledge. Comrade President is not a fool.
It’s reasonable to expect, no matter how sad this whole awful affair is, that the guilty actors may expect a moderate delay and then a focused counter effect with their names on it.
Obviously you don’t call in advance about things like that, so it was “mechanical failure”. Anyway that’s, logically, how it will be called, until it is “discovered” (mirable dictu!) that it was a crime…
How, one wonders, will historians style this? Perhaps they’ll write “So corrupt was the Empire in her decay that internally pederasty was championed within the elite, whilst the most cowardly attacks on helpless innocents, writers, ballerinas and military musicians were considered courageous and thus were secretly employed”. What a pitifully weak ending…
If this was indeed a crime it is an appallingly stupid crime.
There was a bomb on this plane. Simple as that. The only question is, who put it there?
Yves Chandelon, the Chief Auditor for NATO , who discovered links between NATO CIA and ISIS, committed a “suicide”.
happened on 16.12.
No MSM has reported it.
If we leave out natural circumstances, the only question left is who did it and how.
We can ask who do similar things. Who blow up cowardly the most vulnerable and innocent part of a society “to break their culture and resistance”?
Who blow up hospitals, weddings, funerals, market places, kill 9 civilians out of 10 drone killings, shoot people in the back, bomb defenceless forces, makes massacres of Fallujah civilians?
Who have threatened to attack Russia covertly in the above mentioned way?
The finger points at Obama, Carter, Morell as heads, whoever made the dirty work.
How, is a technical matter for the military. Could it be electronic jamming?
I have no knowledge of these matters, but it seems that it was immediate and catastrophic. No idea if electronic measures would have that effect, whereas an explosive triggered either remotely or using an air pressure activated trigger would. I don’t remember what caused the loss over Sinai, but I think something similar. Would not need to be in the cabin, but in the vicinity of a fuel compartment. Ground crew would be high on the list of possible means of delivery.
Web administrator: Some glitch with your architecture/linkages, because this and a couple of other recent pieces have not been showing under the Latest Articles listing. I normally only ever watch there (for obvious reasons) and have never experienced this problem before. Only found out that the S had commented on this catastrophe through a x-ref from the Moon.
yes … your correct … caching was not being done correctly for several days … changes have been made to correct this … just ‘refresh’ your page and you will see all the new articles plus correcting the caching issue…. Please email [email protected] if you observe this again.
I did refresh still cannot get this article directly; have to go through other website
my sincere condolences to relatives of the slain ones
My prayers for the Revelation of Truth
If the Russians come to the conclusion it was the CIA our related entities, they need to alert Trump to this fact and get him to be the first to publicly released the information.
I.e.- Trump could announce/tweet that he had been alerted by patriotic Americans in the CIA that there is a cadre of ‘rogue’ CIA agents trying to destroy relations between Russia & USA and perhaps even start a war between Russia & USA – these ‘rogue’ CIA agents are traitors.
And that he Trump is going to make an immediate priority once President to root out these UnAmerican traitors as ‘Enemies of the State’. I’d the Russians can provide real evidence to Trump & Flynn and perhaps Tillerson? Mattis?) about what happened to this flight and pin it on the CIA – then they should do it.
They must work with Trump, work directly with Trump, to help him overcome the entrenched forces arrayed against him.
“And that he Trump is going to make an immediate priority once President to root out these UnAmerican traitors as ‘Enemies of the State’.”
If Trump is for real (which I doubt), that would make him an express candidate for some sick occult New Year sacrifice of sort, incl. tasty sauce of weird symbols & numerology around…
If you’re drawing that conclusion then you’re saying World War 3 and a nuclear holocaust is inevitable.
A very fatalistic attitude, and really, what is the point of such an attitude? Is your forested hideaway in Argentina ready and waiting and well-stocked for your stay?
AFAIK Mr. Trump & Mr. Putin have never met have they? So how could either have drawn the measure of the other man if they’ve never met?
I would also add – providing this sort of information to Trump and certain others in his Administration ‘smokes out’ exactly what Trump truly believes in and what sort of policies he will actually implement.
If it proves he’s a useless tool as you assert then what have you lost? Only perhaps the illusion that there might have been a worthwhile change.
Surely better to establish this beyond any reasonable doubt as early in his Administration as possible rather than waste years ‘playing nice’ as was done with Obama/Clinton in 2009-10-11.
I’m convinced, that if Trump was a real danger to TPB, there would be no Trump. I don’t believe in any kind of omnipotentia of the Elite. I just believe, that the psychopaths will stop at nothing, in order to achieve their goals, or to protect themselves. And their last if-we-cannot-win-scenario is Nero’s: Fire, Walk with Me…
I’m not a prepper, even I consider common sense to be kind of prepared. I’m just a visitor on this planet. My departure date is already set, I just don’t know the booking details yet. So, indeed, in a certain sense, I’m a fatalist… ;)
“AFAIK Mr. Trump & Mr. Putin have never met have they? So how could either have drawn the measure of the other man if they’ve never met?” – not sure, what is your point with this one.
“I’m convinced, that if Trump was a real danger to TPB, there would be no Trump.”
There have been three, possibly four, serious attempts on Trump’s life in the last six months. TPB *are* trying to achieve ‘no man, no problem.’
However Trump has excellent private security. So far, they are winning. Trump himself also seems well aware that his opponents will try anything, anything at all to stop him. He’s on video record saying so.
His campaign strategy was also masterful. Did you notice he played a kind of stumblebum character for much of the early campaign? Just enough to be noticed, not enough to seem like a real threat. Only in the very late stages he switched to high power, potential winner mode. Whatever else that achieved, it minimized the time his opponents became aware he might beat them, and hence the time they might spend thinking about how to kill him.
Thx for your comment. I’ve got your points.
Myself, I’m switching between “real struggle” scenario & “fake dichotomy/free choice” one. Of course, that’s just a battle between “idealistic” & “cynical”, aka “Jekyll & Hyde” phantoms of my “inner self”.
Anyway, without being able to come to the final conclusions/judgments, I’m blessed to be able to observe real “history”, unfolding in front of our eyes. No need to wait for the official narrative, written in the official textbooks, presented by the brainwashed clowns in the mental schooling institutions…
Peace & Blessings
As long as a huge majority of people solidly support VVPutin, it is very difficult for the Sharp people, the necons, the CIA, the NGOs, to roll out their Moscow-StP plans.The longer-term game plan is to weaken VVPutin in the eyes of his people. Each one of these recent atrocities (as listed above by some commenters) hammers away at Russia’s self-confidence. Whether effectively is moot, but it is psychological, adding a little hesitancy here and there, adding to internal disagreements here and there, rocking the (air of) confidence, raising questions. There are extremely strong forces at play in the 5th and 6th columns (something often ignored by those the Saker labels hoorah-patriots). It only takes a little splintering here and there to bolster both them and the liberals to a point of catalysing trouble, and as trouble grows, so do doubts, and so it goes on in a feedback loop.
One such liberal shitforbrains tweeted obnoxious stuff about the tragedy. She was then under a barrage of angry neighbours banging on her door telling her to stfu. The Russians know the estern financed liberals well, from their overt support of the Neo-Nazis in Ukraine.
The Russian government is stomping down on foreign-funded NGOs. They are no longer allowed to fund educational establishments. Then there is Putin’s epic trolling of the fake hacking meme and the US-funded NGOs
Obama said he’d ‘retaliate’ at a time of his choosing. Sattellite-based attack?
from a statement of Dept. of transportation:
“In the area of the search operation at a distance of 1700 meters from the shoreline on the axis of the take-off divers found the wreckage of the aircraft at the bottom,”, the department released in a statement.
“On the axis of the take-off” does not sound as if the pilot was doing any kind of fancy flying or sharp turn
maneuver. The wreckage was 1 mile from shore so how much altitude could the plane have achieved? Also, this source is usually “party line” and even in the final paragraph it is clear he knows the score and the nature of the challenge presented by this event. It is one thing to know and another to use the knowledge wisely.
HRW’s Kenneth Roth is a terror sympathizer?
” The theories of Kenneth Roth about Zahran Alloush: is Kenneth Roth a joke or what? ”
I agree terrorist bombing. Done by Israel and the USSA. The Zionist empire is losing the peace so it looks like they figure a war is their only hope. It seems this bombing is a part of an offensive where Obama and Biden said there would be retaliation against Russia for Clinton not becoming president. I would include the killing of the Russian ambassador in this offensive.
Russia and China need to speed up their economic war against the Zionist empire. Once the Federal Reserve Zionist dollar collapses the threat should be over
“Once the Federal Reserve Zionist dollar collapses the threat should be over”
That’s planned since a long time ago. Dollar dominance is just a phase in the Plan. Some of the processes used to implement the Plan are: Hegelian dialectics, Ordo ab Chao, Phoenix Rising. There are many more, of course…
PS to all: Pls. do not school me on Hegel. I don’t care, what did Hegel have in mind. Alfred Nobel wanted to build tunnels. That does not mean, that dynamite is not the same, or even more effective in tearing down human bodies…
Say the flight was diverted to Adler, and security was tight at the airport, no possibility to plant a bomb.
But, given close proximity of the crash site to land, use of manpad missile seems to be possible?
Again, Dagestan n Chechnya proximity is very dangerous.
dashcam / security cam footage shows, I believe, a fairly significant flash – it was night-time and clear…manpad leaves bright trail…no trail seen. Occam’s Razor sez a gadgetonboard.
The boffins probably already know, more or less, what happened. The subtle stuff is finding out who…but the list for that is pretty short – this is because the general “why” is obvious…
The corpse is often the best evidence. So say the M.E. authors I have read (Medical Examiner). Imagine what the pilot corpses from MH17 would say if these were properly examined and X-ray’d…
Yes. There would be definitive evidence, shrapnel…proof.
Same story this time – bodies are evidence. So is body of machine.
Criminal try, generally, to disguise their identify… Deepwater hides… Ergo hypothesis arises that gadget operated at wrong time, eg over shallow water.
Criminal must be soiling their pants…they have probably left their names on the crime scene…
The law of habeas corpus was vitiated for the captive populations of the West around the time of the WTC demolition.
It breaks my heart too. I see it as a CIA vengeance bomb to punish the US by attempting destruction of the Trump relationship with Putin for his ejecting the EU and US from anymore war mongering in Syria. Enough being enough. Something a key few in power will never believe. Schaeuble being one, Merkel another. Soros and Clinton others.
I also tend to believe this was a bomb on board, but I do not see any reason why Ukrainian operatives should want to blow up this particular aircraft – it was not heading for the Crimea or Donetsk, after all. Yet there could easily be a suicide bomber on board from among the crew or even among the passengers. It’s useful to remember that every fifth citizen of Russia is Moslem so it would not be a strain to suppose that among 92 people on board that fateful flight there could easily be 5 to 15 Moslem passengers and one of them could be a suicide bomber, or (s)he could just stick a bomb in a toilet or other part of the plane. Russian Moslems if they come form Tatarstan or Bashkortostan all speak Russian without any accent and they may not even look Asian. Even the name Khalilov sounds like Moslem, since Khalil is not a Russian name. I am far from suspecting that Mr. Khalilov could be recruited by ISIS, just used his name as an example of how deep the penetration of Islam is into Russia. But one of the choir or crew members might well be recruited by ISIS and Arabs may have more reasons to blow up this plane than Ukrainians. This could be some sort of vengeance for the activities of Russia in Aleppo and elsewhere in Syria, and as you know Russian Ambassador in Ankara was shot dead for the same reason and motive.
It would be equally ‘useful to remember’ that pro-CIA Kiev coup Slavs have already been caught several times in Crimea plotting terror strikes, and that MH17 (which was not ‘headed for Crimea or Donetsk’ either), was not that long ago. Add to that the fact that millions of former Ukrainians crossed the border into Russia without complete vetting and your focus solely on Muslim terrorists, begins to look markedly imbalanced.
“Ukrainians too “speak Russian without any accent and they may not even look Asian” or in this case, Ukrainian.
The Ukrainian fascist terrorists don’t need a “good reason”. To inflict pain on the Russian people, is enough of a reason for them. I don’t know if they did this or not. But I do know that fascist Ukrainians are certainly “dancing with joy” over it.
Russian Christians, Slavs and Russian Muslims (see Chechens) get along just fine now, that their is no more CIA and Mossad interference. Khadyrov, the president of the Chechen province of the Russian Federation is hugely popular in Russia. He even sent battalions to the Donbass and these same Chechens organized the Donbass resistance and delivered an ass whipping more than once to the Jew backed Ukie’s. Khadyrov’s men are even in Syria, under Russian MoD authority.
Since the days of Peter the Great, Russian Christians and Russian Muslims have enjoyed peace and neighborly friendship until the Wahhabi’s and CIA interfered and caused discord.
Russian Christians and Muslims fought side by side to defeat fascism in WW2.
The same cant be said of Russian Jews who perpetrated genocide, regicide (twice) , sowed chaos and anarchy and financial pillaging at every opportunity. Having been expelled en mass from Russian territories multiple times, only to rear their nefarious faces over and over again.
Catherine the Great emancipated Russian Muslims due to their honor. Russian Jews have perplexed Russian Slavs for centuries.
Nice try ….
Interesting analysis below. States chemical analysts were aboard the plane as well as the singers.
Several posts at RT about possible use of Boeing EMP tech CHAMP. Also anger on Russia’s vote against Israel.
More on that:
Palmyra was captured from isis in may and the orchestra played
Palmyra was lost to Isis in December and the choir was killed.
That is a strong message to Assad.the gloves have come off after Aleppo.
Perhaps ‘energy beam’ directed either from a satellite over the Black Sea,
or from the opposite shores of the black sea?
Maybe in their searches, the Russians could look into the ‘energy beam’ theory?
Christmas Greeting Saker and others !
An off topic, but, one I’m certain many will find very interesting!
NATO’s Chief Auditor found dead in suspicious circumstances.. before the Russian Ambassador was killed- before that other politician was found dead in his apt in Russia
the media is ignoring this, of course
too busy spreading fake/obfuscated news
the auditor was a lefty, the unregistered gun he allegedly killed himself with was in his right hand
the family doesn’t believe the official explanation and quite frankly nor do I
“Yves Chandelon, the chief auditor of NATO relating to terrorism financing and money laundering, has been found dead in his car in an incident that raises suspicions.
62-year-old Chandelon’s death, resembling a suicide with a shot fired to his head, occurred on Dec. 16 and the body was found in his car the same day although the incident was largely kept away from the media. Belgian press started covering the incident on Dec. 21 as his family raised suspicions about his death.
Despite Chandelon being left-handed, a gun was found in his right hand, and the gun was not one of Chandelon’s three registered guns. These details raised suspicions about an assassination rather than a suicide”
As for the plane? My opinion? Sabotage. Despite what is being claimed.
I never expected Russia to admit this had been terrorism even if it was
Propaganda works many ways and this would be too devastating to the Russian psyche to deem this a terror attack
Harsh words for Obama from Lavrov says a lot, I think, about who Russia thinks is behind a series of vicious and crazily brutal attacks on soft targets, using local stooges.
I agree with Obama. There’s no question, I think, that the US is trying to spark a war with Russia before Trump is inaugurated.
There’s no question, I think, that the US is trying to spark a war with Russia before Trump is inaugurated.
Someone obviously is. But not “the US,” if by that you mean Trump and the people here who support him.
Ponder this long and deep: “Let’s you and him fight.”
That Trump has come out as the most zealous advocate of that tribe is cause for concern.
One would think officials would be watching the takeoff from shore until plane was out of sight.
Yes, I also feel that this was a terrorist attack as well (although I suspect Western intelligence agencies being the masterminds). The timing is so close to the terrorist attack on the Russian ambassador in Turkey. And the entire world knows that the West is very, very angry about their terrorist proxy army being decisively defeated in eastern Aleppo…
I’m shocked at the plane crash that killed members of the Russian Army Choir. I was just listening to them late Christmas eve night after returning from a family gathering.
All day yesterday and today Jingle Bells has been going round and round in my head; sung in English with their beautiful Russian accents.
Tonight I will listen to them again in their memoriam.
Just wanted to amend my comment; the Russian Army Choir doesn’t just do Jingle Bells. They have the most beautiful tenor voices I’ve ever heard. I’m a long time fan of the Soviet Army Chorus, and I’m heartbroken over the loss of these men in the Black Sea.
I apologize, Jingle Bells was sung in English and Russian. In any case, the loss of these men makes the world a lessor place to live.
Their Christmas album is exquisite which I am listening to right now. God forbid this was an act of sabotage.
A real tragedy
This plane is a copy of a Vickers VC10. It’s NATO Codename is “Careless” which was disconcerting when If flew in one
One’s a rear-quad, the other a tri-engine, but otherwise close.
It most certainly is not.
The Vickers VC10 was concept wise similar to an upscaled version of the 1950’s Lockheed Jetstar. That is four rear mounted engines, a low wing and so on. The Soviet Ilyushin Il-62 was, design wise, very similar the VC10 but even larger and longer ranged.
The Tupolev Tu-154 is a trijet, a completely different kind of aircraft. The first trijet that used this particular configuration was the Hawker Siddeley Trident. This approach was then imitated in the Boeing 727, the Tupolev Tu-154, the French Falcon trijets and so on. They all have crucial differences though, in terms of wing construction, landing gear assemblies (the Tupolevs famously house their main gear in wing fairings rather than in the body) and so on.
Then there are trijets with only one engine in the fin root and the two others under the wings like on conventional airliners, like the Lockheed TriStar and the McDonnell DC-10/MD-11 et cetera.
Anyway, this disaster sounds superficially similar to the Flight 1549 in that it seems like loss of engine power occured during the early climb phase at modest altitude and velocity, only a few minutes into the flight. According to the eyewitness accounts, the aircraft fell towards the water at a high angle of attack, striking tail first which sounds like it was caught in a stall. The Tu-154 is a somewhat tricky aircraft to fly with unforgiving stall characteristics, and this has led to several major incidents over the many years the type has been in service, most concerning crew error that caused it to stall and then they were unable to recover.
Incidentally, the Hawker Siddeley Trident I mentioned earlier also suffered many similar stalling incidents. I’m no aeronautical engineer but it may well be that this particular layout has some inherently unforgiving stall characteristics.
I don’t think crew error is plausible in this case considering who we’re dealing with, but that it stalled seems to be more or less confirmed so loss of power at low altitude is the most likely candidate in my book. I’d place my bets on a bird strike that killed at least two engines, then the crew tried to level out from the climbing angle and glide, but at such a low altitude and rapidly decreasing airspeed they had no margin, this soon made it droop a bit too much and corrective control input caused it to stall. They were thus unable to glide in a somewhat controlled fashion as in the case of 1549. Just my two kopeks.
I also suppose a scenario similar to your: possibly also a sudden change of the gravity center (displacement of the cargo due to high banking?) could have contributed to produce an unrecoverable trajectory.
Thanks for this comment Carl. I see they have located and are salvaging two of the engines, one of the flight recorders and a number of pieces of the aircraft. Hopefully they will find enough evidence to determine the cause with certainty.
At least some Russian authorities are falling all over themselves to avoid the obvious and most likely cause, a bomb aboard, either in the cockpit or under it so the crew were unable to respond. See what one nitwit says: Viktor Ozerov, chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security:
“I rule out version of the terror attack completely. It is the aircraft of the Ministry of Defense, the airspace of the Russian Federation, there cannot be such a version. The plane had to make a U-turn after takeoff over the sea (and) may (have taken) the wrong direction.”
Turned in the wrong direction causing the crash? I sure hope someone with some degree of intelligence is heading the investigation. This guy is an idiot.
Today, I read on Sputnik what a witness from the Russian costal guard said.
According to him, the plane went nose-up into stalling, then fell like a stone and broke when touching the water.
Therefore the crash does not seems to be criminal.
What has to be understood is why experienced pilots did that ?
Is it a remake of the German pilot in France who deliberatly crahs his plane ?
What can push a plane to go nose-up without a deliberate action from the pilot ?
What can push a plane to go nose-up without a deliberate action from the pilot ?
EMP. Likewise a couple of recent dummy runs. German Wings and two in SE Asia.
Main black box of crashed Tu-154 found at depth of 17 meters – Russian MoD
“The Tu-154’s main flight data recorder was found at the depth of 17 meters (56 feet), Russia’s Defense Ministry said. The ministry added that five more fragments of the crashed plane have been located.
The black box was located some 1,600 meters (one mile) from shore by a FALCON underwater drone.
The black box will be delivered to the Central Research Institute of the Air Force of Defense Ministry in the city of Lyubertsy, a Moscow suburb, within the next few hours, the ministry reported.”
Apart from the take off and the landing (usually the main suspects),
the 3rd critical point is just after the take off when the plane is gaining altitude – and when some altitude-triggered mechanism would activate – that seems very similar to what might have happened here.
Also, as you and others have mentioned – the timing, en-route to Syria etc. (and the possible connection to Ukraine), the iconic passengers on board – lot of things are suspicious to say the least, regardless of what the official version might be at the moment (as they may be just buying some time to chase after whoever might be behind this).
The Sacramento Bee on 12/16/16 had a banner headline and huge front page photo of a woman weeping at a street memorial . The main article was from the Washington Post and it was respectful–“92 lives lost in air disaster, Russia mourns” It was a relief to see decent behavior of the US press for once. There is a sizeable Russian( more settled) and Ukrainian ( more recent) community in the area
Coverage in general was better yesterday, more respectful, more detailed. ‘Terrorism’ as a possible cause is strongly part of the narrative as well. Best if it can be proven to be technical or human error as a non definitive outcome to the investigation will fuel speculation by all parties.
I thought this item from the Angry Arab blog was amusing:
A curse downed the Russian plane
An actual headline of Al-Hayat (the mouthpiece of Prince Khalid bin Sultan) says that “the curse of Aleppo” brought down the Russian plane. Basically, the GCC leaders put a curse on Russia in the last meeting.
Cassad’s website reports “Flaps, bitch…” and then comes a cry: “Commander, fall!” on the cockpit voice/film recorder. This, combined with the known stall (both from observer evidence and according to Cassad from the flight recorder) suggest some kind of flap-related mechanical malfunction or possibly pilot error…
I have no idea what happened. I just want the Saker Community to know that this American expresses his sorrow for such a great loss. I pray for God’s Peace to the families/friends and the Russian people who mourn.
The issue with stalling of this type of aircraft layout is in relation to the high position of the elevators in the “T tail”. If the angle of attack of the aircraft gets too high for a given speed, such that the main wing stalls, then it is possible for the turbulent wake that the stalled wing leaves behind to envelop the horizontal portion of the tail (which is mounted high and behind the main wing,potentially right in the path of the stall wake). Once this occurs the elevators lose ability to control the pitch of the aircraft. The pilots find it difficult, if not impossible, to get the nose of the aircraft to pitch down, hence it remains nose high and in the stall. Now the aircraft will lose altitude quickly and as long as the nose stays pitched up the wing remains stalled. So it continues in its descent.
There are some techniques which can be used for stall recovery in some of the aircraft which use the high mounted “T tail” layout. These techniques vary by aircraft type (since there are so many types of plane which use “T tails” and they are not at all the same in many aspects of detailed design and performance). The issue here is that once you are in a stall of this type (sometimes known as a “deep stall”) your lift is significantly reduced and you are falling fast. Pretty much anything you try is going to involve getting the nose down in order to get the tail out of the stall wake and to re-establish orderly air-flow across the main wing (so it is no longer stalled and can provide lift again). You need to re-establish lift and pitch control as quickly as possible. To do that likely means going down (losing altitude) even faster still! So, you need a lot of altitude to initiate a recovery, let alone successfully execute it to completion.
Of course this all assumes you have two factors on your side. First, you need to have sufficient altitude to recover. Second, the type of aircraft you are flying has to be of a design type wherein it is possible to get out of deep stall and there is known process to make recovery (which one would assume the pilot would be aware of it and trained to execute it- note that not all are). Assuming the Tu 154 was in deep stall for some reason, it seems that in this particular case item #1 was not available. Then there would be little or nothing the pilots could do in the time and altitude remaining to them, even if the aircraft was undamaged with everything operating perfectly.
Now, there is a quick note to make here before someone makes a silly critique of the layout of the Tu-154 and “T tails” in general. The layout has its advantages, as well as the disadvantage outlined above. They are well known. Understand that all aircraft layouts have advantages and disadvantages. They are carefully selected by the designers according to what they need the aircraft to do, how it will perform and what other attributes they require. All is compromise. The T allows for a large unobstructed wing of clean form which could be used for reduced drag (less interference drag at engine support- wing intersections) or for improved short or high field performance (makes take off and landing at difficult locations possible). It also allows for the placement of the heavy engines well aft, meaning that the tail is not required to provide as much down force (yes, downwards force is what the tail-plane must generate) as would otherwise be necessary, hence reducing drag. It makes the aircraft much quieter inside the cabin and demands far less sound proofing material (for less dead weight). The trade-off for these and other advantages is a difficult behaviour when in deep stall (which is a flight regime one would never intentionally fly an aircraft of this type into anyway). As disclosed, in aircraft design all is compromise.
Here is another compromise made in building aircraft.
Seems natural to build an aircraft out of it. We see it all the time. So much so that we trust it without thought. Many, many aircraft are made from it. And yet……
And THAT can lead to structural failure.
All is compromise in aircraft design. Always think on this before denigrating a design.
P.S. Hawker Siddeley Trident was fitted with leading edge slats on the main wing. If these were retracted at low flight speed, then an immediate stall would follow. Once the stall was established it was extremely difficult to recover since the trident was a “T tail” type. Much of the trouble for the Trident was down to the stall lever being located next to the flap lever.
Flaps are routinely retracted at far lower air-speeds than the slats. That was normal. The problem arose if the pilot inadvertently pulled the incorrect lever into “retract”. As flaps are usually retracted early on the climb-out (i.e. at low altitudes), one can imagine what would occur should the wrong lever be selected. Slats in. Stall established. Low altitude….
We learned from this. The controls for slats and flaps are in different locations and forms now. And there are inter-locks, warning mechanisms and the like.
Very interesting. But what about the flash caught on a private dash-cam? And what about the fact that the disappearance from radar was instantaneous and no mayday signal was sent?
the flash could have been due to the powerful landing/taking off lights of the plane, still switched on when the aircraft was doing the U-turn short after the take-off, whose aiming for few seconds coincided with the directions of sight of the observer.
There are no “flashes” recorded that can be matched to this incident.
There are two video clips of “flashes” that are being spread, and it’s “fake news” if you will. One of them indeed came from the Sochi/Adler area and originated in a random webcam. This clip comes from about half an hour after the actual crash, shot in the wrong direction altogether, and it was all caught by a low-fps webcam (one frame per ten minutes or something along those lines.) This “flash” most probably shows the spotlight of an unrelated aircraft (since it’s 30 minutes after the Tu-154 was lost, it might well be the searchlight of a helicopter, or even some naval beacon out there as people have found a similar “flash” on earlier footage captured by this webcam.)
Another video that’s been spread on the internet shows several very bright blueish flashes in the sky. This is a dashcam video and it’s actually from 2013 and filmed outside of Moscow, on the outer ring road (the MKAD), just about a kilometer north-east of the Besdenskiy interchange.
Siotu, thanks for the educated reply. I am an aerospace engineer and have worked for Boeing. Your analysis is perfect. About the only things I would add are based on the observed behavior of the aircraft, immediately pre-crash.
No pilot engages in radical maneuvers just post-takeoff. Every pilot is aware that a stall just post-takeoff is immediate death. So, care is taken not to over angle-of-attack the aircraft. Observance of a clear post-stall attitude just after takeoff with an experienced crew is good evidence of a sudden, in-flight emergency.
Joe100’s comment on “Cassad’s website reports ‘Flaps, bitch…’ and then comes a cry: ‘Commander, fall!’ on the cockpit voice/film recorder. This, combined with the known stall (both from observer evidence and according to Cassad from the flight recorder) suggest some kind of flap-related mechanical malfunction or possibly pilot error…” seems to tell the overall tale.
“The Tu-154M and Tu-154M Lux are the most highly upgraded versions, which first flew in 1982 and entered mass production in 1984. … The aircraft has new double-slotted (instead of triple-slotted) flaps, with an extra 36-degree position (in addition to existing 15, 28 and 45-degree positions on older versions), which allows reduction of noise on approach.”
(I cannot find whether the Tu-154 had slats, so I will leave that out of this analysis.)
Deflected flaps produce a very strong nose-down pitching-moment. This moment is countered by ‘negative lift’ at the tail. The ‘negative lift’ is produced by trailing-edge-up movement of the elevator, and fixed-rotational-position of the whole horizontal tail if available in that aircraft-type.
Flaps are normally slowly-retracted as soon as the aircraft reaches airspeed where it can be supported by the clean-wing (i.e., below stall angle-of-attack at that airspeed) – and below any structural limitations due to air-forces on the flaps. For the aircraft-commander to yell-out “Flaps, bitch…” indicates a sudden, unforeseen situation with the flaps. This could be either a linkage jamming in some way, or a physical failure in the flaps themselves.
I am leaning to the flap-failure side, because of the “Commander, fall!” cry. If the flaps physically-failed, they would no-longer be producing the nose-down pitching moment. Assuming the elevators were being held in fixed-position through this failure-moment, their force would have rotated the aircraft nose-up very quickly. This matches the eyewitness testimony of severe nose-up aircraft position, and the co-pilot noticing the stall on his instruments. (Some reports cite a ‘turning back’ maneuver. This could just be an asymmetric stall of the wings, producing what could be interpreted as a ‘bank’ prior to a turn. One wing would drop slightly before the other. This scenario could be produced by winds-aloft requiring earlier rudder-sideslip, or in the details of the flaps breaking-up.)
Once the aircraft was in deep-stall at low altitude, the pilots had no chance to recover before impact. The T-tail may, indeed, have been in post-stall airflow at that point. But, even an aircraft with a low-mounted tail would have crashed. There was just not enough recovery altitude.
The only variable, which we may never truthfully know, is whether the flap failure was fatigue-induced or ‘helped-along’ via human intervention…
Would an extra wing below the tail prevent this stalling problem? It would have to be retractable for takeoffs and landings.
Edward, the best ‘solution’ for this behavior was produced by Burt Rutan. His Vari-Eze/Long-Eze aircraft had a canard (essentially a forward-mounted horizontal ‘tail’) which was positioned-and-sized to stall just before the main-wing stalled. Since the canard-stalling removed the force (moment) needed to keep the main-wing at a high angle-of-attack, the main wing Could Not stall. Even with the pilot holding the stick back in his lap, the aircraft would simply ‘bobble’ in a slow up-and-down sine-wave motion as the canard stalled and recovered. No main-wing stall was possible…
Unfortunately, because of ‘Not Invented Here’ and additional complexity, mainstream manufacturers have chose to ignore this life-saving feature. I can think of several fatal airliner crashes which would not have occurred with Rutan’s canard as part of the aircraft…
Thanks for this informative reply. Do you think such a canard would have saved the Tu-154 if, as you suspect, the flaps failed?
I like canards. They usually work out well. And they avoid the need for producing down-force. I always hated the need to do that in regular designs. By this I mean that we want to fly, to go up. Yet we use some appendages to push down. The production of lift incurs a drag penalty. So here we are in regular aircraft making negative lift pushing us down, meanwhile we need to produce extra lift to balance out the negative lift….. Extra drag we could do without. All seems a little Heath Robinson. Still it works. But wrong somehow. Canards seem elegant in comparison. Of course, then there are other compromises and round we go again! It must be very difficult and most stressful to be a designer of aircraft. Still the intellectual satisfaction and rewards of thoughtful design must be stimulating and encouraging.
Tupolov’s designers know about canards and used some retractable ones on the supersonic Tu-144. I wonder whether they are something that could be added to the design of future variants of the Tu-154 and the like (there are lots of small fast jets, regional passenger and feeder aircraft, as well as many of the business jets which use “T tails”). There is a designer in the USA called Holman who recommends a six lifting surface design as the most efficient and controllable. He has conventional tail and main wing, as well as canards. He is well published. Interesting read.
Writing of supersonic Tu-144 reminded me of Concorde. I was most impressed at the exaggerated angles of attack the Concorde could apply without stall. I think they were good to above 30 degrees AOA. Mind you they did have an excellent amount of thrust should it go wrong. Luxury indeed. Can’t have too much power!
Are Boeing not looking into canards?
Si: “Are Boeing not looking into canards?”
Yes and no. Yes, innovative engineers are looking into them, for all the positive reasons cited above. No, because marketeers believe that airline buyers will not purchase anything that is not two engines and a tube. The ‘familiarity’ problem. So, do not look for anything from Boeing (or Airbus) that is not a scaled-up or scaled-down B787 or A350. Sad…
Si: “Tupolov’s designers know about canards and used some retractable ones on the supersonic Tu-144.”
I was most impressed with that original-solution when the Tu-144 came out. I believe it was ahead of the Concorde in that regard. Unfortunately, the Soviet regime of the time did not back the program (even as a national symbol, after an unfortunate crash or two), and the type was retired. I believe the Russian people lost an important opportunity there for wringing-out supersonic airliners…
Si: “I was most impressed at the exaggerated angles of attack the Concorde could apply without stall. I think they were good to above 30 degrees AOA.”
There is an important effect which naturally-occurs beyond about 50 degrees leading-edge sweep. At moderate angles-of-attack, the airflow separates from the leading-edge, which would normally cause a wing stall. However, at high sweep, that separated-airflow rolls-up into a tight vortex just behind the leading edge. The ‘normal’ airflow is pulled-over that vortex and re-attaches to the wing, just as though there were no stall present. This behavior continues up until absurdly-high AoA like 70 degrees. Very cool.
There is a lot of drag in this ‘condition’, so hugely-powerful engines are needed to offset takeoff or landing drag. This thrust requirement is what killed the Concorde in Paris. They had plenty of lift due to the vortices, but not enough thrust to accelerate to full control-ability (enough flaperon/rudder authority). So, they mushed-through the air until they finally lost the ability to control the engine-out roll…
Goshawks and Siotu Thanks for your input.
You have entered the arena of the problem solving engineer or aircraft designer! It is a fascinating and stimulating place. It can be frustrating and challenging as well.
The extra wing below the tail would have to remain extended for take off and for landings. These are the times when you necessarily have low speeds and so you have risk of stall right there. The careful professional attention of the flight crew is directed (among other things) towards avoidance of stall on approach to landing or on departure after take off. Stalling at low altitude in any aircraft at all often means insufficient time or room to recover. It is certainly a possibility that even with extra control surfaces you would not possess enough time to recover. Still, at moderate to high altitudes a device to get out of a deep stall may well act as a life saver.
There is trouble with hanging a set of horizontal surfaces low on a rear engine aircraft. There is a complicated structural issue to sort out. A reason for the “T tail” is to get the tail out of the region where you want to put your engines. Things are going to get congested back there if you try to hang the engines and the horizontal surfaces in the same location. It could be complicated and heavier than you want. Extra weight is an enemy! Even if you did get it all fitting and sorted, other issues come to the fore. There is the matter of undertaking engine maintenance and engine swap outs (the British discovered this with some of their jet aircraft which featured buried engines inside the wing root). Far simpler, less weighty, cleaner structurally and aerodynamically to get the T up nice and high and out of the way and avoid all complication! You don’t have to though. There are always options. But it is always a compromise which one is chosen. Frustrating, isn’t it! Challenging and very rewarding if a good solution comes out of it though.
Presently one approach to avoiding stall is to cue the pilots (warn them) about the flight regime they are about to be entering. You could have a stick shaker. This shakes the control yoke when the aircraft is approaching a stall. It is a powerful tactile warning for the pilot. We have similar things for other flight problems as well. For example, a sound system calling out “terrain, terrain” if it is detected the plane is flying too low while not configured for landing. Pilots have a high workload in certain circumstances and these devices are there to assist. They (hopefully) allow the pilot to prioritise which issue should be dealt with immediately. Ideal is to avoid the deep stall, or any stalls at all, by simply never flying into them.
Now having said that, for small aerobatic aircraft stalling is something we actually want to do on occasion. It is part of the menu of manoeuvre. Again though, you do need plenty of altitude to mange it.
Thanks for this very detailed reply, Siotu. It sounds like the canards would lower the minimum altitude from which a recovery is possible from a stall.
Siotu, I will never understand the absolute resistance to installing angle-of-attack instruments on airliners (i.e., with direct pilot readout). Fighters have them, and it has saved many lives.
Airplane wings do not stall with airspeed, altitude, or any of the usual read-out parameters. They stall-out with angle-of-attack. (AoA is the angle of the wind relative to a line drawn through the wing, front to back.) Pilots have to ‘guess’ – based on experience and charts – where they are in angle-of-attack. A simple read-out with a red-line that indicates “this wing stalls at 18 degrees AoA” would have saved many lives.
For instance, the Air France flight 47 crew got themselves into trouble when a pitot tube (an airspeed instrument) froze-up at high altitude, giving false airspeed readings. The co-pilot, relying only on airspeed, put the aircraft into a deep stall. The flight crew then ‘debated’ why the plane was still falling, all-the-way-down from 36,000 feet to the ocean surface. If they had had an angle-of-attack indicator, they could have just looked at it, discovered they were in a stall, and initiated a proper post-stall recovery. No problem.
I consider that NOT giving aircrew angle-of-attack readouts to be almost criminal. End of rant.
(And, an AoA indicator might have given that Tu-154 crew time to push-over and not enter a stall. Maybe. We’ll never know…)
Oops, Air France Flight 447…
I do not understand why this is the case. There seem to be several systems which ought to be on-board commercial airliners which are not. Definite proven life-savers get omitted and yet they are not a large expense in the scheme of things. Meanwhile all sorts of trivialities and “features” attract full funds… Odd and unsettling.
Yep, odd and unsettling, indeed… (Head-up displays should also be mandatory.)
I made a typo. I ought to have written this, “Much of the trouble for the Trident was down to the slat lever being located next to the flap lever.”
Sorry about this error.
Every indication is that this was an accident, most likely mechanical failure.
I gather the Alexandrov Ensemble is something of a national icon for Russia. A perfect target for the likes of Morrel.
As I posted elsewhere after the assassination of the ambassador – When threats emanate from the CIA and the Whitehouse, shit happens.
It would seem that “pilot error” is the main theory at the moment… and the evidence supports it.
Very, very sad, tragic incident, and it happened on christmas no less. But I for one am happy that it was not enemy action, because, it would have certainly led to a massive escalation. The Red Army Choir could not have gone unavenged. And their deaths will not be in vain, either way.
Russia must take steps to ensure this never, ever, happens again, and perhaps this type of aircraft should be phased out entirely.
Love and Respect,
Sorry, but it was not ‘pilot error’. If the flaps failed shortly after takeoff, the pilots could not have done anything to prevent the crash. Their only ‘options’ (if they could react in the seconds available) were to stay in the post-stall condition and hit the water slightly nose-up, or to push the nose over and hit the water in a semi-dive. Neither were survivable. It was NOT ‘pilot error’…
“UPDATE: according to Russian sources the voice recorder of the Tu-154 indicates some kind of emergency malfunction of the aircraft’s wing flaps.”
RT has that info up now.
‘The flaps, damn it!’ Last words of doomed Tu-154 flight crew leaked to media
“A source close to the investigation told Life News of the exact final words uttered there.” ( “Закрылки, с*ка!” Стали известны последние слова пилотов Ту-154 https://life.ru/t/%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8/953139/zakrylki_ska_stali_izviestny_posliedniie_slova_pilotov_tu-154 )
“That has not however been officially confirmed.
All the Russian Defense Ministry has said so far is that the data obtained from the flight recorder allows the causes of the plane crash to be narrowed down.”
The Russian “sources” may not be telling the truth regarding what was on the voice recordings in the black box.
Some of us don’t really trust “Russian sources”, but, in any case, can flaps be sabotaged? Wouldn’t there be conversations with flight control and radar data that would tell us a lot? Where is that?
Wouldn’t sabotage have become apparent in the takeoff checklist?
If the flaps physically came apart prior to the ‘upset’, there should be lots of ways to detect that in the accident investigation.
If the flaps themselves stayed-together but a supporting-member failed (allowing the flap segment to rotate with the breeze), that would be much harder to detect. ALL the flaps would have had their supporting-members snapped in the water impact. Distinguishing a pre-crash ‘snap’ from a crash ‘snap’ might be hard…
Sabotage-wise, flaps are very intricate. Also, due to weight issues, they are built to take ‘just enough’ loads. (These load-issues are carefully ‘Placard’-ed in each aircraft, so the flight crew know about them.) Flaps could be easily-sabotaged in many ways, from lessening the load-carrying capability to introducing something to jam them. Normally, ground-crew are ‘screened’ to minimize these risks, and ground-access to the aircraft is carefully controlled. Whether this was done for THIS aircraft at THIS airport is not known…
The Tu-154 operated by the Russian Defense Ministry en route to Syria must be attempting to take off without its flaps and slats extended to proper take-off configuration. The Tu-154’s instability and sudden roll was consistent with known performance of the Tu-154 with the flaps and slats retracted.
The captain may be continued to pull back on the control column in an attempt to keep the Tu-154’s nose raised, which might have created turbulence over the rear-mounted engines and caused the compressor surges. However, the compressor surges would not have significantly reduced the engines’ thrust, and that the Tu-154’s failure to gain speed was due to aerodynamic drag on the aircraft due to the high angle of attack, rather than a loss of engine thrust.
“The Tu-154 operated by the Russian Defense Ministry en route to Syria must be attempting to take off without its flaps and slats extended to proper take-off configuration.”
This is very, very unlikely (unless by some sort of mechanical/electrical/structural failure). The flight crew would have been intimately familiar with their aircraft and its correct operating procedures. They would have calculated weights and balances prior to departure. They would have known fuel load and payload fraction. They’d have calculated V1, V2 etc. and they’d have selected flap/slat config. (how many degrees of flap to deploy etc.) They’d even have accounted for the temperature of the air as well as its density. All of this would have been taken into account when they were setting take-off configuration. They KNOW to do this and would have attended to it just as surely as they know to lower the under-cart immediately prior to landing! I do not accept they’d have completely failed to follow their usual procedures and omitted selecting flaps and slats prior to departure. Look, they even have a formal check-list process which they follow. To miss flaps/slats etc. would be an incredible breach of procedure- careless and wreckless in the extreme. Come on, this is a professional military flight crew we are dealing with here. While it is possible for an error to have been made, I strongly doubt it is a flapless, slatless departure.
I am going to assume there was an asymmetric deployment of flaps most likely on the first partial retraction. I don’t think if one flap was extended further than the other on takeoff that the takeoff would be successful. With one retracted and the other deployed the lift and drag would probably exceed any amount of aileron and rudder counterforce and both roll and skid the aircraft at an airborne speed (300 is mentioned -could be kph so 162 knots or knots/mph) that probably broke the plane apart. If a wing ripped off or belly tank was smashed it could explain the flash of fuel igniting or could merely be wing/flap fragments ingested into the 3 engines at the tail.
There is the slim possibility that this was a rogue CIA precipitated event, that it really was a bomb, that this flap problem is a cover-up, and that Russia does not at this time wish to escalate the current proxy war that the USA and vassals have inflicted on Russia.
SanctuaryOne, “an asymmetric deployment of flaps, most likely on the first partial retraction” is a possibility. I do not know whether there are/were electromechanical ‘safeguards’ (essentially fuses) on the Tu-154 to stop further retraction before sizeable left-right flap differences. Some aircraft have that, for just those reasons.
At just a mile or so out from the airport, the aircraft would still have been slow and so at low control-surface authority. A sizeable left-right flap-difference build-up could have overwhelmed aileron/rudder power. This might account for some reports of the aircraft ‘turning’. I tend to not think that the aircraft would have broken-up due to sideslip. The airloads are too low. Hitting the water at speed and ‘odd’ pitch/roll/yaw angles would have broken-up the structure quite thoroughly…
I do believe that any asymmetric deployment of flaps prior to takeoff would have been immediately noticeable to the flight crew upon acceleration. Aileron and rudder would have been needed. The crew would have performed an aborted takeoff, with or without runway overrun…
I tend to agree on not breaking up due to side forces but I was thinking of a way beyond specs very high roll rate collapsing a heavy fuel-loaded wing near the root and subsequent broken fuel lines igniting. Assuming eyewitness accounts of a brief flash in the sky are correct and unless the flap broke off and was ingested by an engine the question is what caused that flash? Could the plane have spun around and it was just the landing lights?
The spread of the wreckage will confirm what happened in flight and what happened on impact assuming known tidal conditions and the TU-154s altitude.
It’s possible but I doubt either pilot error as the primary cause or CofG loading error or overweight.
SanctuaryOne, I agree: The dispersal pattern will tell the tale. (Assuming it is truthfully reported.) I also agree that it was not “pilot error, CofG loading error, or overweight.” It was either sudden flap malfunction due to wear, or sudden flap malfunction due to sabotage…