by Ramin Mazaheri
The historical trend of the euro and its previous incarnations has followed this historical pattern, when we take a leftist view:
The Eurozone is dominated by France and Germany; France wants an end to austerity and to promote growth policies bloc-wide; Germany wants more austerity to maintain its dominant financial position; Germany, Washington’s Frankenstein Monster – whose violence stems not from parental and societal rejection but unfeeling hypocrisy – wins.
And Germany wants a smaller Eurozone, so…why doubt that a contraction is on the way?
I have already written how the Eurozone has a hopelessly corrupt and undemocratic structure, and I have also written about how it is primed for collapse because the recent years of Quantitative Easing did not strengthen the real economy but instead was diverted into investments in high finance/stock markets that have almost no societal benefit.
So what happens when the QE tap is finally turned off after all these years?
The Eurozone is expected to decide this week to stop Mario Draghi’s QE, tapering it off until its termination.
Well, this 7-part series was largely written two months ago: It now seems extremely likely that the ECB will not announce the end of QE on October 25, after all.
I doubt that is due to my rather dire prediction of what will happen when QE stops, because the danger posed by the end of QE is obvious to any journalist following Europe.
That’s why Reuters titled this just-published article, “High noon for the ECB, Draghi at the QE Corral”. Draghi represents the strong, silent type/peoples’ representative Gary Cooper, while high finance is the Miller Gang who is ready to lay waste to the entire village for their benefit. The real question is: what is Grace Kelly doing in such a hick village, but if I answer that I’ll have to add a “Gunfight at the OK Corral” metaphor, and trying to explain Reuter’s convoluted headline has gone on long enough.
The latest general prediction is that monthly bond buying will be cut by just 33% – 60 to 40 billion euros – and that it will be extended into next year. These amounts are peanuts in the multi-trillion grand scheme of the Eurozone’s bailouts: but we still don’t know if the scary end date will be finally announced.
This “flexibility” is the main thing to take away from Draghi’s upcoming announcement: “…the bank would maintain the flexibility and even signal a willingness to increase asset buys if the outlook sours.” Translation: the ability for taxpayers to bail out private banks remains in place, along with the direct free money of QE, as well as the negligible interest rates which provide free money to those not well-placed enough to benefit from the direct free money.
The likely postponement shouldn’t be too surprising: The ECB has already postponed tapering off QE before. The same two reasons provide the motivation: Firstly, this program geared for the 1% is quite lucrative for them, and secondly, they know that there is going to be hell to pay.
But my key question – which is the basis of this series, and is a Communist-inspired accusation of capitalism – remains: when the era of free money ends, and knowing that the 1% can never be satiated, how long do the devilish speculators wait to strike the Eurozone, as they did in the summer of 2012, which provoked QE?
My second key question -inspired by a complete lack of faith in the Eurozone project, as a result of its structure and its results – also remains: how can an era of “free money” for the 99% ever start when the solidarity required for a pan-continental project does not exist?
The book “And The Weak Suffer What They Must?” by former Greek finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, a fake leftist but admirable whistleblower, has provided the jumping off point of this series and I have quoted his findings often to prove the structural and cultural absence of Eurozone solidarity (mainly) on the part of Northern Europe.
“…the Bundesbank was, and remains, prepared to do ‘whatever it takes’ to stop Mario Draghi in his tracks. The fact that Herr Weidmann (Bundesbank President) has so far failed is testimony to Chancellor Merkel’s determination not to have the euro crumble on her watch. But, as Draghi knows too well, neither he nor Berlin can afford to ignore either the Bundesbank’s wrath or its preference for a smaller euro area.”
And because QE must end sooner than later (they are literally running out of bonds to buy), regardless of the inability of the ECB to say this clearly on Thursday, the plan for a multi-speed euro is already in place: Once the era of free money ends, that new era is certain to begin.
To briefly restate what I have predicted: we will simply go back to 2012 – Greece will leave or not, and high finance will go back to “testing” foreign bank debt-burdened countries like Portugal, Italy and Spain in the hopes of forcing a Troika-led “bailout”.
So you see the depth and the scope of the problem, and why the question is not “if” but “when”?
Could be on Thursday…doubt it will take until 2019
How do you feel Europe? Ready for some historic changes?
Things are lining up very well for the 1% in Western Europe since Brexit: Macron won, Merkel was re-elected and with an even more pro-capitalist coalition to boot, Madrid is reclaiming control over Catalonia (rather up in the air there right now, I’ll grant), anti-austerity protests in France have fizzled as Macron is waging a blitzkrieg against the French social model. Things are going very differently in Central Europe, however, which I will address shortly.
Allow me to examine here reasons why the 1% will refrain from blowing up the system for their own profit this Thursday.
As the predictable, repeated backtracking of the ECB shows – they are still getting free money, and people also realize that the Eurozone’s economic state is too perilous to make a major change now. But there are some other credible reasons that high finance could hold off until 2019:
European MPs are up for re-election then…but it’s not as if they have more power than high finance, LOL! And it’s not as if Europe’s 500 million citizens have historically had a say in the structure of Europe, anyway.
European Commission (1/3rd of the Troika) President Jean-Claude Junker is also up for re-election, but he said he won’t run for a 2nd term. LOL, he knows it’s a sinking ship, but he may not want it to sink on his watch. But again, it’s not as if he has more power than high finance either. And it’s not like there’s a risk of a non-Junckerian communist being put in charge of the EC….
The most plausible reason for a high finance-forced delay is that the EU wants Britain to pay as much as possible for Brexit, and that occurs in June 2019. The EU needs to have a united front to get maximum value, which Brussels has said could be €60 billion, maybe more. However, €60 billion obviously pales in comparison with the money in play in the Eurozone; with the money the 1% can make by forcing Spain, Italy, etc. into accepting horrible, Greek-style, Troika-led bailouts before Eurozone expulsion. There is another important faction which wants the Greeces to stay, so for them the larger issue is to scare other nations from pulling a -exit.
To me, these last reasons are the only plausible ones which would cause contraction to be held off for 1 or 1.5 years. As I said, QE could be extended until then, and they couldn’t even prolong it by expanding their bond purchases of European corporations, which is at least better than giving free money to banks.
But the QE tap will be turned off, and then no mo’ Zone Euro
Like I said: huge crisis, Troika bailouts, more austerity, chaos for the average person, even more inequality…and then finally changes to the Eurozone! At long last!
But if you are expecting a major collapse – a major tarnishing of the European brand – you aren’t thinking like a capitalist.
It will be a velvet coup. I have already described the plan, which is in place and agreed-upon: There will be a two-speed Europe; this has already been approved by the four major economies – Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
The rich economies will pursue deeper integration, and poor nations will be tossed aside, along with the long-time, false, fig leaf of effort at “economic convergence”, a capitalist euphemism for the communist “redistribution of wealth”.
The key propaganda line they will use is, “No new rules are needed, as the existing rules are already in place.” EU rules already allow groups of at least 9 member states to pursue “enhanced cooperation”.
Therefore, no referendum is needed; there will be no vote; they will say that “the rules for a multi-speed Europe have already been democratically approved in previous votes” (except the 8 times they were democratically rejected (these rejections were obviously ignored)).
So this is the key to remember, Eurozone members:
There will be no changes to the current horrible situation; no changes to the atrociously undemocratic nature of the Eurogroup, which controls the all-important Eurozone, the world’s largest macro-economy; no minutes of the Eurogroup’s monthly meetings; no democracy within the group; no parliamentary oversight; the total rejection of democratic votes which aim to influence Eurozone policy – as in Greece; no changes to the status quo, which works just fine for the 1%.
And remember that before the crisis gets too big where the 2-speed Eurozone becomes official: Usurious bloodletting continues, as does forcing labor code roll backs all the while. This helps explain Macron’s feverish assaults on the longtime “bad example” of France: it’s clear the end is near, and so he has been told to put as many pro capitalist/pro-globalization rules in the French law books as possible. A French public, exhausted from years of protesting and filled with apathy, is proving to be unable to stop the slide.
And when that day finally comes when the “new” Eurozone debuts and the Greeces are freed: The rich members will simply take their money and go home. You can expect a bill from them every month thanks to the waves of privatization – ports, airports, water departments, laws favoring their own industries against local industries – over the past 30 years.
So what is the 2-speed system?
In short, it will be the nations of the Eurozone versus the nations of the European Union who have not accepted the euro.
We must remember the very clear geographical and cultural division here: The Eurozone is composed of Western Europe, a few islands and tiny principalities, the three rabidly anti-Communist Baltic states and the former Czechoslovakia. Only the latter is the real exception here, and I will soon discuss how unhappy even they are.
So we see how prepared for an easy division Europe already is.
I think we can all agree – given the perilous state of the Eurozone and the atrocious mistreatment of its weaker nations – no Central European nation is crazy enough to want to join the euro, not even fanatically pro-Europe Poland: a poll this spring showed only 22% of the population still wants to adopt the euro.
So we also see how hardened this division already is.
We should also understand that this division is coming very soon, and that it does not need to be preceded by the Eurozone economic crisis which I have described.
Add this all together and it’s clear that we will see the true splitting up of Europe. The 1st-speed group will include the Eurozone members…or at least the ones who have not required a bailout and have been approved to join the new club. If they stiffen up entry requirements, the Eurozone could very easily contract out multiple nations, leaving only North and West Europe.
And that is what Germany has always wanted.
Even though Germany (along with France) broke the EU’s fiscal rules in 2003 before anyone else; even though countries like Greece and Portugal had “morally correct” fiscal balance prior to being loaded with foreign banker debt; Germany has made no secret of its unjustified contempt for the weaker Latin nations.
When history is written it will show that Germany (along with the 1% in other Western nations) orchestrated the economic gutting and domination of all Europe, which set them up for part two: the inevitable domination of the lower-speed Europe by the strictly-rich Eurozone.
And why would the less-rich nations accept this? Well…they won’t.
Central Europe may not stick around to find out
Again, do you think they will join the euro now?
The most capitalistic aspect of the euro is probably its precondition that any nation wishing to join has to suspend any controls over the movement of money in or out of the country for two entire years.
That should be the sound of your jaw dropping.
So any nation which wants to completely sell off their national heritage to the rich capitalists of Western Europe and America (but also Japan, China, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Qatar – anyone with money), and also wants their native 1% to engage in massive capital flight… well, it’s your funeral. Such a rule is clearly meant to advance the national interest of richer countries rather than the interests of their alleged partners in the pan-European project.
The Visegrad Group – Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia – has already said they would leave a multi-speed EU, because why on earth would they bind themselves to the 2nd-tier, where they have no hope of attaining parity? The Eurozone is pure capitalism with unequal regulation and no solidarity: that means the largest corporation wins, and the 2nd tier can’t possibly compete.
Of course, Western Europe does not give a fig for these protests against a multi-speed plan which violates the 1991-era spirit of the pan-European project in every way. Tone-deaf, “democratic strongmen” like Macron will continue to push for it in the hopes that Central Europeans will continue to be duped by false promises of equality.
Central Europe is waking up: they will always be second-class citizens in Europe
The reality is that in recent years reporters in Central Europe have noted that the European Union/Eurozone has been able to achieve something that Communist-era governments constantly tried to do, but were never able to: tarnish the image of the Western model.
The pan-European project has definitively proven to Central Europe that they are not viewed as equals by Western Europe, and that they were included only to provide nearly the same quality of work for one-third the wages.
Heck, the Visegrad countries even had to protest the inequality of ingredients in the exact same food products if they are headed for Central Europe and not Western Europe. This type of stuff does not go unnoticed and is not easily forgotten: Western Europe has no conception of this humiliation shared by the victims of imperialism.
Let’s remember that the horrific dismantling of Central Europe’s socialist economy in the 1990s was underpinned by a promise that they would be accepted and treated as equals by Western Europe…that has not happened. The currently 40- and 50-year-olds believed the promise of capitalist politicians, disbelieved the warnings from their parents that life under socialism was not so bad, and completely ignored the moral arguments of their grandparents in favor of socialism and against capitalism/corporate fascism.
Abundant statistics bear this out: in Slovakia, real incomes rose by nearly 50% between 1970 and 1985, but dropped during the 1990s; GDP only regained its 1989 level in 2007, and has remained stagnant ever since – undeniable failure.
A few decades is long enough for Central Europe to get the picture…so let’s accept that we have a new historical, cultural reality here: the old analyses will not apply as effectively.
This nearing middle-age generation is waking up, and they are justifiably unhappy. Thus we have the Czech Republic – probably the most culturally-Western nation in Central Europe –just electing a billionaire to be prime minister, but one who is paradoxically Eurosceptic. Something does not add up here, but as I said these are totally unique, distorted times in Central Europe.
Central Europeans have concluded that the pan-European project – the European Union – has essentially brought only two positive developments: better transportation (which benefits Western capitalists via better ease of business) and open borders (encouraging brain drain & cheap labor, and thus benefiting the Western capitalists). Before you fly off the handle, nativists: open borders are a human right, but they must be accompanied by socialist regulations on capitalists to protect local wages.
Please notice that I didn’t add “protect local culture”: The idea that immigrants, the Roma, or Muslims are the cause of Europe’s degradation is hilarious, and you look like a fool if you make such a claim. European imperialism has turned on itself, and national Socialism is not the solution. However, international socialism is.
The result of Central Europe’s rejection of modern socialism and choosing intra-European imperialism is obvious to all: Germany has colonized Central Europe, taking advantage of their historical, cultural and geographical ties, and used the profits to dominate Western Europe as well.
The immediate reality is that from Visegrad to Romania, a two-speed or multi-speed EU will not fly – after 30 years they no longer “look up” to Western Europe. A more powerful reality is that Western Europe will simply push out Central Europe, and it doesn’t even need another Eurozone crisis to do so: contraction is coming soon, regardless.
The rejection of socialism in favor of undelivered pan-European promises has left Central Europe currently looking like a used-up, indebted, aging, mistreated woman who is bitterly looking for an easy scapegoat… but that’s just what capitalism does to everybody. Certainly, socialism is the only societal solution to all that.
My prediction for how it all WON’T change
As we now see that the multi-speed Europe is inevitable, and that Central Europe will be pushed out, we are still left with a problem many nations face: being a Eurozone member.
The fastest route to real change is if one country takes on the role of the noble martyr and leaves the euro, taking all the pain, head-on. In the short-term, as Varoufakis estimates: plan for 1 year of total financial chaos.
But is any Eurozone nation ready or willing to do that? You would need major revolutionary fervor – nationwide, mind you – to sustain everyone through the year of short-term pain.
But long-term it’s even more demanding on the People: it would take an Iranian-style revolution – with no WTO membership, with a war of banking sanctions, with constant media character assassinations, with constant encouragement of subversive elements by foreign powers, with shortages orchestrated by the 1% percent as in Morsi’s Egypt – to get back all the assets which have already been sold off and also to renounce all the unjust economic contracts they have already signed.
Because why just “leave” the Eurozone if you want to remain in the capitalist system; if you want Germans to keep control of your water department, the French your port, and the Dutch your dairy industry?
It doesn’t make sense, does it?
But that IS the only long-term battle plan. If it sounds like you don’t have the stomach for that…then you aren’t considering a lifetime of penury and subjugation, which is the only other choice.
That’s the reality check.
‘I will not stay and I will not go’ – the undiscussed option
Nobody in Europe ever seems to think about the option of using paralysis to your advantage… the sit-in, the long-term strike, the repeated spanner in the works. Of course the mainstream media forbids such discussions, but still….
There’s a much better alternative than waiting for that rogue financer to force the issue and call the bluff on Europe’s “Ponzi austerity”, and it is not promoted by Varoufakis: At some point some nation is going to refuse to play by the Eurozone’s rules and also refuse to leave the euro. Nobody has really discussed this type of “outside of the box” possibility.
Such a threat means to stay in the euro…while kicking and screaming about making the necessary rule changes to finally introduce democracy in the Eurozone.
Obviously, this requires a call to implement anti-austerity economics which Western Europeans are simply too scared to call by name: communism. (This fear is examined in the next part of this series.)
Somebody with some power – not some bozo like me or just a Finance Minister – will pull the veil off, show the ugliness underneath, and yet will insist to keep parading her around at the dance for all to see. “She may be ugly but she’s mine!” The first step to acceptance is establishing existence.
At the same time, this nation will refuse to play nice in European institutions – where absolute unanimity is required very often – and bring them to a halt. And other Eurozone countries will, I believe, listen.
What I can try to predict is: Who will be this rogue country?
There has been no real hero in the Euro crisis so far. Hollande – the ultimate patsy or “the meekest of leaders”, as Varoufakis wrote; Le Pen – an intellectually uncommitted clown; Mario Monti – no revolutionary but at least something of a nationalist for standing up for Italy and for a European banking union in 2012; Syriza – betrayers; Podemos – committed to working within the system and preoccupied with preventing the Balkanization of Spain.
And yet, I contend that the “hero”, or even the “villain”, should be Spain.
But before getting to that: it sadly appears that Central Europe is not going to be the hero, although they are capable of bringing the European Union to a halt, and even though they should do it exactly that after decades of capitalist rape. But private control of the media means that socialism is never discussed, and that the scapegoat is not the unrighteous 1% but foreigners. Show me the Central European nation where the current narrative isn’t a continuation of “reactionary, capitalist nationalists continue to consolidate power after the era of international socialism”; show me the leftist leader on the rise over there; show me the country where a political revolution/genuine restructuring of society is occurring like in 1979 Iran or in 2017 Syrian Rojava?
Spain is, crucially, where high finance is watching most closely – today as in 2012.
They are the biggest major economy on the edge, and their People have suffered real privation. Something or someone should come from there to determine the balance. Whatever they do will…work!
If Spain wants to work within the euro and save it; the euro will be saved. If Spain wants to break off into Catalonia and other regions and abandon the euro; other nations will be happy to join them. Dissatisfaction is so high in the Eurozone that SOMETHING has to happen.
But because Spain would not be a surprise, and because revolutions are always a surprise (this is a rather tired trope, I’ll agree), I predict France will make the change.
No, I’m not biased, just speculating
Idiots in the US talk about impeaching Trump for tweeting, but I really cannot understand how the French will tolerate the smug, young, capitalist strongman Emmanuel Macron for 4.5 more years? Macron, far more than Trump or any other Western leader, has already overplayed his hand and alienated the public to incredible degree. His approval rating is lower than Trump’s after all. France also has a history of serious protest.
This prediction is in line with the historical analysis, after all: As I have proven, the EU was originally conceived by France as a Franco-German alliance against American imperialism, and France tried for decades to get Germany to give up austerity and to help fund (along with France) pro-growth policies.
And if we pull back to this historical view, what I am saying is that history can plausibly be read like this: France’s decades-long proposed alliance fails…so they take a different tactic – total rebellion – to save themselves. Makes sense, no? France has the power and clout to do it – and others would certainly fall into line.
It is possible that the looming Eurozone economic crisis will force the young, somewhat unknown Macron to have a “coming out” party, where he does a 180 and proves to be the type of leader the times demand: an independent one.
But that’s less likely than this scenario: The huge protests which are currently too tame become even worse than 1968-levels after the French public catches their breath and when the Eurozone crisis does hit, forcing Macron steps down. 20% of France voted in May’s election for a candidate whose main plank was to end the Fifth Republic – the economic crisis makes this a majority. A new leftist wave takes power and demands real changes. They don’t get them, of course, so they form that 2nd Euro bloc I mentioned, abandoning Germany and austerity and picking up Spain, Greece, Italy, etc.
That means we could have a truly divided 3-speed Europe: Germany and their minions like the Netherlands, Luxembourg and others, France leading a pro-growth Latin bloc, and Central Europe charting a sorely-needed new course for themselves.
Yes, the idea that Germany and France remain together to install Cold War 2.0 – Western (Eurozone) Europe versus Eastern (non-Eurozone) Europe – is a more likely scenario. This would play into the hands of Eurasia, as the Chinese One Belt, One Road system would have to be welcomed all the way to the Hungarian Plain, unlike in the year 1241.
Regardless, this is a multipolar world now, and the idea of 3 truly separate centers of power within Europe, and with truly different ideologies is fun to contemplate, no? Beyond fun, it is clearly progress, when compared with the current undemocratic, capitalist status quo in Europe.
But let’s not let this speculation detract from the real point of this article: economic mismanagement has pushed us to the certainty of implementing a multi-speed Europe.
Some say it will contain two speeds, some say it will have three speeds, and there’s a real possibility of an economic collapse into zero speeds. But it is coming, and soon. This process – which is so slow and so planned and so open that it cannot be called a “crisis” – is due to the lack of democracy and socialism in the pan-European project.
Separately, when the ECB turns off the tap, as they eventually will, then you will have a real crisis for which there are no simple solutions. But creating crises – “Recession as a Tool of Social War” – is the final article in this project.
However, “The English-speaking world’s fear of calling communism, ‘communism’”, is the next and penultimate article. That is because this fear – this inability to discuss politics, economics and morality openly and honestly – is the root evil and root cause of the current European social disorder.
This is the fifth article I have written in a 7-part series on today’s Eurozone which will combine some of Varoufakis’ ideas with my 8 years of covering the crisis first-hand from Paris.
Here is the list of articles slated to be published, and I hope you will find them useful in your leftist struggle!
Varoufakis book review: Rock star economist but fake-leftist politician
Why no Petroeuro? or France’s historic effort to create a permanently anti-austerity Eurozone
The hopelessly corrupt structure of the Eurozone & the Eurogroup
The Eurozone: still as primed for collapse as ever
The Eurozone has likely entered its final calendar year, contraction coming
The English-speaking world’s fear of calling communism, ‘communism’
Forced recession as a tool of social war against the 99%
Ramin Mazaheri is the chief correspondent in Paris for Press TV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Iran, Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. His work has appeared in various journals, magazines and websites, as well as on radio and television. He can be reached on Facebook.
Just wondering if Jeremy Corbyn might become your hero who will proclaim, “I will not go and I will not stay” (in this capitalist cesspit). A socialist Britain under JC will stay, to restore the EU to socialism from within?
If any of this is true, it reminds of the saying in Quantum Leap by Scott Bakula.
While Germany prepares for the worst, Greece insists on euro!
“The currently 40- and 50-year-olds believed the promise of capitalist politicians, disbelieved the warnings from their parents that life under socialism was not so bad, and completely ignored the moral arguments of their grandparents in favor of socialism and against capitalism/corporate fascism.”
This is so true. Young people in the early nineties in (still) Czechoslovakia dumped on everything that the socialist state had provided and still was providing for them and instructed me (teaching English Palacky U) that everything would be better under the capitalist system because of competition and the free market.
Almost all European countries have public education and healthcare funded by the state. (Any refugee/ or migrant, even illegal, is granted this right.) A central Brussels-based bureaucracy makes many decisions instead of the nation state. Almost all the media is controlled by the US deep state. Some countries have martial law (France) and others have capital controls (Greece).
If this is a “free market” according to you then maybe you could tell us what is your vision of state sponsored socialism?
It would appear that the system is simply an extension (albeit a warped one) of what existed previously. It’s not for nothing it’s called the “EUSSR ”
Hence the rise of the nationalist right wing parties in may European countries, as the pendulum swings from the extreme left towards the extreme right.
I am quite sure that many years from now there will be many elderly who will think nostalgically about the EU. About how there was “no war” (at least not within the borders of Europe, never mind what they did to Syria, Libya, Iraq or Serbia), free movement of people, and wonderful university exchange systems.
You had free education and healthcare in Europe before the EU was set up. As for free movement of people, I can assure you that there won’t be too many Europeans who will miss that, bearing in mind what free movements of people have brought to Europe.
When I lived in Germany decades pre-EU, university education was (I am quite sure) free to Germans.
For health care, one had to be in a Kasse. But it was not very expensive.
I was in Dresden while the DDR was enjoying it’s existence, ent the city was beautiful. I do not know what it looks like now.
“If this is a “free market” according to you then maybe you could tell us what is your vision of state sponsored socialism?”
Not sure how this question relates to what I wrote in my comment.
I didn’t saying anything about what a free market is, or isn’t.
Sorry my mistake. I thought you were referring to the current EU as “capitalist because of competition and free market”, but in fact in can be interpreted as only what the people *thought/hoped* they were getting.
1. Add to link: Is the EU the new USSR?
I would say instead of USSR Comecon – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comecon
2. SREBRENICA the place where a genocid never happened, Aleksandar Dorin
Fraud called “Srebrenica Massacre” – the Truth
Srebrenica was a “Planned Chaos”
While I fully agree with Ramin’s article and his top-view description of the situation,
if we look more closely, things start to get interesting.
Just in the past few days I came across some interesting facts about Germany:
1) the German state lacks today 20,000 judges and state attorneys
2) till 2030 the German economy will need 160,000 nurses & care givers
Most likely that there is a shortage in technical/IT and other fields, too.
So the question arises, how will Germany pull off this 1st-speed EU without
the necessary man-power?
1) the German state lacks today 20,000 judges and state attorneys
2) till 2030 the German economy will need 160,000 nurses & care givers
Those are results of greed (2) and wrong planning (1).
Most likely that there is a shortage in technical/IT and other fields, too.
Pure propaganda by employers in order to attract foreigners in order to keep wages of locals down. Germany doesn’t need any foreigners. There is already a surplus population. Talk about over-aging population is the same kind of propaganda. Continuing automation (Industrie 4.0) will cause for an even larger surplus population. Germany should retrain the surplus population.
‘Germany should retrain the surplus population’
LOL, jawohl, retrain granny to be an IT specialist
and make her work till she is 100 years old. No pension for her!
That’s German efficiency.
I just had to come back and pop your fake-reality bubble.
1) ‘Pure propaganda by employers in order to attract foreigners in order to keep wages of locals down.’
Noone outside Germany reads German news, so that ‘Propaganda’ is read only by locals.
So, if the newspapers say there is a shortage then the locals can ask for higher pay.
You’re assertion fails.
2) ‘Germany doesn’t need any foreigners. ‘
Germany already has 25-30% foreigners. Foreigners help build Germany,
foreigners help run Germany, turn around and see the many foreigners.
You’re assertion fails.
3) There is already a surplus population.
‘Surplus population’? Really?
Who belongs to the surplus population? Who decides who is a surplus and who isn’t?
What shall we do with the surplus population?
‘Surplus population’ – Only a true Nazi could construct such concept.
4) Talk about over-aging population is the same kind of propaganda.
Germany as a whole isn’t over-aging, the newcomers, the foreigners are keeping it young.
Over-aging are only the Bio-Deutsche. Their percentage will soon fall to 50% or less.
5) Germany should retrain the surplus population.
Retrain Omi? Make her work till 100 years old?
Or retrain the average slob, who can’t be retrained because he has no capability to
become anything better?
‘Germany doesn’t need any foreigners.’
Unless they are skilled engineers, medical personnel…
Met lots of them. Pity that Germany doesn’t recognize a lot of graduations from eastern europe.
‘There is already a surplus population. Talk about over-aging population is the same kind of propaganda.’
Every 1 out of 3 German women has no children. When the wages of German workers would not be possible to be payed out in a certain month, the pensioners can’t be payed as well in the same month. There is no buffer anymore.
Are you sure you are on par with demographics of Europe and Germany?
Have a read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany . Look at the fertility rates. You need 2.3 to keep your population stable (the 0.3 above 2 accounting for strict singles, homosexuals, sick, uninterested and early deceased).
The slightly raising fertility rate since 2010 is due to immigration from Africa and Arabian states. Those are accounting for the 40% children coming to grammar school without being able to speak German.
The true dream of Coudenhove-Kalergi and reptile Soros. Btw, Merkel is on his payroll.
RATM and Rob:
Germany does neither need refugees nor skilled personnel from other countries (this includes Eastern Europe as well). We’ve got enough people. Take a look into factories and compare this to the situation of the past and you’ll realize that automation already has replaced lots of people. Many cutting machine operators of the past have been replaced by CNC machines. Of course you still need some skilled personnel, but by far not as many as in the past. It’s similar with road construction. In the past you needed more workers with shovels. Nowadays with the “miniature” excavators you’ve got one or two workers doing most of the repair work. Let’s have a look into finance. In the past you needed people to copy the text of money transfer forms into the computer program. Those jobs got replaced by OCR software. Once lots of people sorted mail envelopes manually. Those people got replaced by sorting machines that do the same work in an astonishing speed. In agriculture many small family farms had been replaced by large factory farms. Modern agricultural machines are so sophisticated that they can be guided by GPS and the output of seeds can be adjusted individually to fields. In comparison to the past the job of farmers is highly automated and doesn’t need that hard manual labor anymore.
Grannies don’t have to be retrained. Each and every Indian can do the programming (IT) from India. Via remote control you can easily access computers from afar. Think of all the pupils of the US who get assistance with their homework by phone hotline (from India).
The decision to deliberately let infrastructure crumble had been made by politicians. The same applies to the neglect of schools. Everyone loves to bash “lazy” teachers, but hardly anyone is capable to understand what they’re doing for the country. The waiting time for an appointment with a medical specialist depends on the form of insurance. If you’ve got private health insurance you’ll get pretty quick an appointment with a doctor. If you’re member of public health insurance, you’ll have to wait several weeks or even months.
Do you think textile industries will resettle in Germany? (I don’t really want an answer to this rhetorical question.) Most has been outsourced to countries with lower wages.
Care of the elderly is done mainly by Eastern Europeans for shitty payment. The language skills are (more or less) good. The work in slaughterhouses also is mainly performed by low wage workers from Eastern Europe. It’s similar with construction jobs. Eastern European wage slaves have replaced low skilled German workers. This had been done as deliberately as had been the destruction of Eastern European companies that may’ve had a chance in the fierce international competition (especially with Germany).
Each and everyone advocating for more immigration of skilled workers takes a position against the German population. Whilst I was sympathetic towards the refugees, because many of them had to flee to escape certain. death, I’m against destroying Germany by additional immigration – be it from Eastern Europe or any other country.
Probably about 800.000 additional jobs are in danger to get wiped out in the “near” future. If automotive industries will go fully (probably mainly) into the direction of electrical vehicles you’ll not need exhaust pipes, sparking plugs, whole engines, etc. anymore.
The future will bring more automation and this will result in less people needed.
I wish you all to have lots of fun with future conversations.
I’ll focus only on 1 of your assertions:
‘Each and every Indian can do the programming (IT) from India.’
Great. Money goes out of Germany to India. Hallo Handelsdefizit!
That money won’t be spent in the German market, means more stores will
close, more jobs will be lost, means less tax revenue, means less payments to
poor folks, means social riots.
And why stop there, lets outsource even more. VW already has more factories in China
than in Germany. Swallow that one.
Your racist views “we don’t need no foreigners” will only destroy Germany.
Fine by me.
Now, that is an interesting point.
If you want to go to a German medical specialist, count on a waiting time of at least 3 months.
IT? Shall we start with transportation first? Every day I have to pass the river Rhine. The bridges are so old and damaged that traffic is slowed down artificially.
To give an example, the bridge that I cross daily was opened in 1970. I heard from a friend, that he was there as a schoolboy when it was opened. Designed for 30000 vehicles per day. Now, 100000 vehicles per day pass it and it simply vibrates ‘kaput’.
Infrastructure is in a bad state. Our dear ex-Bundeskansler Gerhard Schroeder had no attention for it, more for tax raises (see for instance this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mV5r7SwS-YY sorry, it’s in German).
Problem is, there are simply not enough civil engineers in Germany to solve it in a desired time frame. Yes, I know that every year some 100000 engineers graduate in India. Good people too, I’ve worked with some of them.
But now. Learn the language (oops, that takes a year), and now I drop a box of orders on your desk concerning German legislation about avoiding soil pollution like BimschG and VAwS. Well, are you finished reading yet?
Dumping skilled workers (‘Fachkraefte’) is not that easy a solution. And, I get the impression, that the thousands immigrants at the borders are not up to it, worse, most of them will even have problems with grammar school.
Nowadays, about 40% of the children entering grammar school in Nordrhein-Westfalen don’t even speak German.
Now, that’s a start isn’t it? Fossile reptile Soros would be so proud.
(sorry, I’m cynical).
In 2015 the EU Central Bank started printing 1,1 trillion euros backed by nothing. Anybody who had any common sense could have easily guessed that the EU, from the financial and economic point of view, could not function, as member states had equal rights, but also equal obligations. This is an economic and financial absurdity, as the smaller states could not keep up with the larger ones. The result is that today smaller countries, like Greece, have populations who are in worse financial shape than they were before their countries joined the EU. It’s not a question if the EU will break up, but when. Yes, there are some analysts who are speculating that a smaller version of the EU will be set up, but if it is, it will only be a private club of a number of Europeans states, having nothing to do with the original EU. As far as I can see, Europe is now at a crossroads. It knows that the EU cannot function, it is extremely worried with Washington’s imperial ambitions, and at the same time is quietly watching the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union, which is becoming very tempting. These factors will in the end turn Europe towards Russia and China and the emerging Union.
The dramatric expansion of the EU from its original west european configuration to include countries right up to Russia’s border with the deliberate exclusion of Russia was intended to i) fatten the wallets of those that could loot the new poor EU members and ii) set up a scenario for the self-destruction (aided by the hubris of the western leaders seeing an empire arising). The connected benefit on the way up and the way down.
iii) provide a “Russia is threat” narrative. By moving the borders of the EU right up to Russia’s borders one can then claim, with a straight face, that Russian military is on Europe’s doorstep. (and then lobby for more NATO spending by member countries) For the oligarchy, it’s gift that keeps on giving.
Yes, and iv) to incorporate all of Europe into a “United States of Europe” intended to utterly destroy national sovereignty and form part of the One World Government with everyone and everything on planet Earth privately owned by a few families controlling a micro-chipped and much reduced human population.
My only qualm with Ramin’s brilliant writings – how do we know “International Socialism” as he describes it won’t lead to totalitarianism.?
Can unaccountable Power be trusted?
The current issue of The Nation has a story “A New Deal for Europe,” by Varoufakis and James K. Galbraith. I haven’t read it yet.
(John Kenneth Galbraith is one of my heroes. I don’t know whether his son is of the same calibre.)
One of his sons, Peter, is a long time payee and proponent of greater Kurdistan.
Thanks Ramin for your views, I enjoyed this article from the head to the bottom line. Let me add a short line according to my view, regarding the German austerity issue (pushing) : the Germans, in general, as a nation, the “austerity” is part of their culture. You cannot see a German acting and saying ” spend, spend”, rather they act and say “save, save”. The so called “sparen politik” is something part of their culture, which – in my view – is a realistic approach and very healthful by the way. If people are educated to spend all the time and not care of the future, they will end up in misery or in the hands of a banker – who will be eagger to get them a loan – which brings them to the same misery and subservience. Regarding Central and Eastern European countries (former socialist states now member of the EU) : you’re perfectly right, there is no socialist alternative there left in place because the socialist – by name – parties are no more the genuine ones, and the actual right or central-right parties in power, are totally against the achievements of the past historical socialist system as a whole. They are rather capitalits pawns, playing hand in hand with the zionists for the sake of keeping power. If you think, they are acting independently, you’re wrong.Some of them are barking loudly, being let seen as an opponent of the EU, but the reality is that they are very dependent on the EU money, investments, and especially on Germany.Germany is well aware of that and he took advantage of this situation, knowing very well the divergences within those countries and among them.
“You cannot see a German acting and saying ” spend, spend”, rather they act and say “save, save”.”
I agree that there is evidence that Germans are intrinsically frugal and saving minded. Frugality and abhorrence of waste does seem to me to be a facet of the German character, or national makeup. Might be a generational thing. Perhaps modern “economic miracle” Germans are less frugal. Not sure how or of this relates to the EU, Eurozone, austerity policies, Greece, etc.
“Not sure how or of this relates to the EU, Eurozone, austerity policies, Greece, etc.”
Because the majority of Germans are used to the “selbst sparen politik”, they view their government policy in this regard with other eyes as the rest of Europe, especially the south. Just look at the approval ratings regarding Merkel and compare it with the AfD and Linke. In the longer term, there might be a tendency toward changing this policy, because the EU and the Euro Zone as a unified economic and monetary structure, is very interacting with each-other. In case of a crash, Germany would be affected as well. As Ramin wrote, the wind of change is at the door, it can be postponed but not stopped.
Frugality and austerity are not the same, by any means. One mentioned saving rather than spending. With austerity, there are no savings.
What is Quantitstive Easing? – And how it works
Just looked up prices of a hospital stay. Being in norcal I chose this:
State/local government hospitals — $2,680
Nonprofit hospitals — $3,500
For-profit hospitals — $2,140
In socialist utopia, what function keeps this price down?
I’m no capitalist, but the large collective model seems to have a glaring issue.
As usual, no sourcing of this right-wing hasbara. Gee, why is that.
Think I made that up? Source: http://www.google.com. Then find the rate of change of hospital stays in the US over 20 years, if you can.
Socialism is extortion, but okay with the bottom 51%.
If my other similar comment shows up, please pick one.
Its the norm. Private clinics only accept profitable lines of work (routine, clearly defined treatments and procedures, limited downside risks, easily obtainable liability insurance, limited capital requirements).
High risk (bio and chemical warfare victims, etc.), experimental work, emergency clinic and analysis labs, forensics and finally the morgue are all at state and local government hospitals.
Where does a private clinic send you if they cannot treat you in their facility, or you die?
If you guessed to the state / local government hospital, you guessed right.
Profits are privatized, costs are socialized.
The funeral home is private. I am trying to avoid it as long as possible.
Do your homework or we have to conclude you are trolling us.
Meanwhile, in BankerLand on the other side of the pond, the US Federal Reserve Board had previously announced that it also would begin to unwind its own QE. Except, that it appears that ‘flexibility’ also rules the day and that this unwinding also includes asset buys.
It turns out the world capitalists seem to be acting like junkies when there is talk of taking away their ‘free money’ fix.
From Wolf Richter’s Wolfstreet blog.
Who would want to join the Euro now? ……. the Ukrainian fascists are beating down the door trying to join. And strangely, they seem to sell this as a good thing to their people although all Ukraine has to offer is a population of well trained slaves.
“However, “The English-speaking world’s fear of calling communism, ‘communism’”, is the next and penultimate article. That is because this fear – this inability to discuss politics, economics and morality openly and honestly – is the root evil and root cause of the current European social disorder.”
Communism (communalism) is about as opposite to the israelonazi worldview as is possible. You’ll never see zionazi assets promoting serious left-wing structural changes in the west, it will be all smoke and mirrors. The things are literally incapable of anything else, when selling their israelonazi master’s policies.
Thanks, RM. Great article.
Is there a way to combine communism (whatever version) with private property?
Just finishing up “Mayflower,” by Nathaniel Philbrick.
It seems like a lot of religions have been constructed, or used, to justify grabbing, or “purchasing,” other people’s property. (Taken to the nth degree this might be the basic idea of empire.) In some cases the sellers had deeds to their own property (Palestinians pre-Zionism) and in some, the concept of the private property was unknown (early Native Americans), but the idea was introduced to enable purchases of property, as with later Native American holdings. Once Indian “badlands” developed value—discovery of oil or other mineral wealth; new value as vacation locale; etc.—these lands were cut up into parcels so that they could be bought and sold, and thus the Indians ended up selling a huge amount of their once tribal lands. Real property turned into cash.
It seems like property/land still underlies the whole capitalist system. “Other people’s land” along with “Other people’s money.” I think most people like to own property. I am sure someone has worked this out, but am wondering, how. Especially in these environmentally cataclysmic times, when it feels to many that survival actually depends on owning one’s own piece of the earth.
“Is there a way to combine communism (whatever version) with private property?”
This is a very good question, I was thinking about many times. Yes, indeed, the people want to have their own property which can be given further on to their children or sold if needed. One of the failure of the state socialism was exactly this. They were afraid of having kulaks, not understanding the needs of the people who raised up against their land-lords for centuries just because they wanted to have their piece of land, meanwhile having the scruple to teach that history. The fear by the state and nomenklatura had been exacerbated. It is a nonsense to have the state being involved in every small business own by it’s citizens but in the same way, it is nonsense for private citizens to own too large portions of land and woodland.There must be a fair and logical share between state own and private own properties. The state needs to have the strategic resources in his hand thus assuring the security of the country with it’s people. The state must always stay on the part of it’s people for the common benefit of all. The banking system must be totally under the rule of the state, providing special banking rules for it’s citizens to allow them borrow at a normal rate and to have their savings secured at a decent rate. These are just some quick thoughts, I’m sure, there are very smart and qualified people out there who can do a larger and more detailed description on what and how and which is the better way.
Thanks for a very intersting article, Ramin.
If I may post a rather divergent idea: yeah, I think too that it could be the French to be the first to pull the plug out of the EU, stuck to the ghost of the song Hotel California (‘You can check out any time, but you can never leave’).
France is in deep trouble.
Of course they are unhappy with their chosen Manchurian candidate Macron. I warned them years ago that they would regret this Hollande. And they did. In the official press he was called ‘le Chef de l’Etat’, but in the less official it was ‘le Chef de chomage’ (chief unemployment). And now, with this arrogant bankers boy and his fossile rapist wife?
The possible rebellion has to do with the dualistic charackter of the French. They may look every now and then to live like ‘lalala’ and ‘tralala’, but actually France is a highly organized nation. No, they are not playing the accordeon the whole time with a baguette and a bottle of wine under their arm.
France is a nation with a lot of legislation, but floats on a common and very strong recognition on what’s ‘fair’ and ‘unfair’, more than everywhere else I’ve been, and then the people will stand strong.
One may argue, that a population that elects these idiots is not able to deal with Brussels. Fair enough. Yet, I didn’t give up hope yet that they will unchain. This is the same nation that stormed ‘la Bastille’ and beheaded their masters.
An insightful article and no doubt correct re partial dissolution of the grossly corrupt, undemocratic EU. But I find the clinging to communism as an answer unfathomable. How on earth can anybody believe in communism after its disastrous effects everywhere it has been tried? ( see unrestricted capitalism likewise). More to the point, when will people East and West ( and South and North and of every race) wake up and grasp that the 1% of 1% create the ideologies and exploit the competing factions /races/peoples for their own profit? It isn’t about left-right. Left right are creations used to for divide and rule.The Russian revolution funded and created by New York and London elites at all? Not defending the corrupt, dangerous western despots, just saying we all need to find a genuinely new path, together, recognising who the real ‘enemy’ is. It isn’t Americans, or Russians or Europeans or the Chinese. It is the elites who make up and give us the ideologies and hence divisions, like candy to children. To the elites, all people are cattle. They have no allegiance to any nation, certainly not the people of any nation. Do you really think the people who control Israel care a damn about Jews who are not bloodline? They can be sacrificed. Any people can. All just cattle. So, at the height of the British Empire, the real rulers of Britain cared about British people? Please. 50 – 60,000 casualties a day on the western front – walk towards machine guns? Millions killed and maimed. Stalin cared about the Russian people? Hitler the German? Nero the romans? The Neocons the Americans? They hate and have contempt for the people. All people outside their little club. Not just Russians or Chinese. They are poisoning us, here, in sunny UK with what is in the water, food, air, microwave technology,with lies and propaganda – and more we probably have no clue about – not to speak of trying to destroy the country and its people by every means possible – education, economy, media, military and in the 1970s trying to destroy sovereignty by taking us in to the EUSSR by stealth – a treasonous act. All because they love us so much.
This is not a struggle between peoples. That is bullshit theatre the elites are longing for you to believe is real ( antifa v ‘white supremacist fascists’ in US for example – Soros Entertainment Inc.) Powers come and go, empires wax and wane but the basic dynamics persist, over the millenia, bloodlines pass down power and expand wealth,generation to generation. The problem is bigger than ‘East’ or West’, however threatened and abused the East currently is ( and it is – the insane cabal clearly wants war with Russia and China ). But i don’t get the whole misty-eyed thing about Russia’s ( and eastern Europe’s) soviet nightmare past. Was Dostoyevsky making it all up?
I truly hope Putin offers a break with the past. No question he is a better chess player than his western clown opponents.Two cheers for that. But the real problem is the ‘grand game’ existing in the first place. It has been imposed on all of humanity by the breakaway society ‘elite’ who appear to believe themselves gods and want the rest of us to be their robotized serfs, micro-chipped and mind-controlled from birth and euthanized when we are no longer of use. It isn’t about ‘football team’ ideologies, political, religious or whatever. Those are just useful control mechanisms. The picture is way bigger than capitalism versus communism. The EU is just a stepping stone towards the goal of one-world government, to a technocracy of total control. With paedophilia at its heart.
At the moment, Russia stands as a bulwark against that plan. I hope it remains so. But it doesn’t need communism to be a moral leader for the world in a time of insanity. I pray Putin and those around him have long ago abandoned communism for sanity and humanity.
You speak as if the USSR was named something else other than the Union of Soviet Socialist Repubics.
They never said they were communist, but a socialist state.
The critiques of Karl Marx, despite being a wealthy man who lived the life of an aristocrat and never spent any time in prison for his writings are still valid in many respects to this day (he screwed up on the value of labour).
What most people want is democracy at work, participation in the decision-making process to control their environment where they spend most of their life. Read of watch Richard Wolff (yes, he really did do Harvard). He promotes worker coops…
Why did Steve Wozniak join Steve Jobs in a garage? Wozniak could have had a good paying position at HP. The team wanted flexible hours, smoke a joint when they felt like, go for a walk when it felt good, wear sneakers, jeans and t-shirt etc. At the beginning, they all had a stake and were part of the decision-making. That they did the IPO and have indentured slaves by the million working as contractors in China raises a few questions.
The communist party in Russia pulls just under 20% of the popular vote, even today. Many people may not whole-heartedly agree with all that Putin’s party is doing, but as an individual no statesman comes close to his stature. That is why he has almost 80% of the vote.
Alternatives like Navalny, whose conviction for embezzlement,
are a bad joke (yes, Stalin was a bank-robber, hardly qualifications for modern political life).
Solzhenitsyn – not Dostoyevsky. Have to put foot in mouth somewhere…
Does France really need Germany? Most of the people living in Alsace no longer speak German as well as French. Sure, they all learn English, but English is needed as a “traffic language” iin order to facilitate world trade. Most French people are no longer interested in crossing the border to live, work, or study in Germany.
Does Germany really need France? German banks need the French to continue to borrow money. How does the French government plan on repaying the German banks? German industry needs France as an “Absatzmarkt” (dumping ground) for selling finished goods. German business and financial elites represent a very small percentage of the German population. Those groups may benefit from French connections, but not necessarily the German people.
Would the average person in France or in Poland state that the feel “dominated” or “controlled” by the Germans? The French and the Poles seem to live according to their own respective languages and cultural traditions. How does Germany “dominate” Europe?