by John Rambo
The Islamic State:
The Islamic State is going to get its own section after that last debacle you guys made me eat…..
ISIL needs to be defined before a report on their situation can be given. So after this I can just focus on the tactical, operational, and strategic impacts of the Islamic State instead of who and what controls it.
How far does the Islamic State spread?
South Front Analysis and Intelligence has the most accurate idea of ISIL in terms of territorial control.
Thin corridors through territories along towns, villages and roads bordering deserts and oases. Large parts of the Islamic State is disconnected. Branches outside the core of Syria and Iraq are either factions that have pledged loyalty to the Islamic State or are subsidiary branches opened up by ISIL and are recruiting from whomever, generally by sapping local Islamists factions. ISIL does enjoy a level of popularity higher than Al-Qaeda. [Source]
For you see right now ISIL is the new Al-Qaeda to jihadist-wannabes except bigger-er and better-er. Al-Qaeda had to hide in caves in Afghanistan and compounds in Pakistan. ISIL is out in the opening, beheading and raping whenever and wherever without second thoughts.
ISIL sympathizers may exist in large numbers in Turkey, potentially Europe, and definitely in some parts of the GCC. Their actual strength and capabilities is yet to be known.
Recruiting in the Arab world isn’t hard. Many boys and young men remember the humiliating defeats suffered by their fathers and grandfathers in Palestine, Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya…… all at the hands of foreigners. Israel is the pinnacle of this shame, foreigners who have forced themselves in the heart of the Middle East and have kept it with force. The world looked on unwilling (or unable) to remedy the problems that continue to spread from this core issue.
It’s not hard to quantify ISILs popularity in such an environment. Official Arab states, including Assad’s Syria, do nothing but offer lip service whenever Israel attacks. Israel had destroyed a suspected Syrian nuclear facility in 2007 and the only reaction to come from the Syrian government is the standard “we will reserve the right to retaliate when and where we choose for this incident”. [Source][Source]
Compare that to when the IRGC suffered a loss at the hand of the Israeli Air Force in Syria. Hezbollah took action by ambushing an IDF patrol. The difference in response is not lost on the young boys of the Middle East. If Hezbollah wasn’t a Shia organization it would probably be over flooded with recruits from all over the Arab world. Hezbollahs success against Israel irks Saudi Arabia who, with their vast wealth, have been unable to achieve any goals and objectives against Israel (save the Arab oil embargoes of the past which was still used timidly at best). [Source]
Now imagine how many boys throughout the Middle East saw the rapid victories of ISIL and hopped on the bandwagon to martyrdom…I mean victory. For them this might be the only legitimate ticket to a “liberated” Middle East.
The Islamic State right now operates (or has influence) in the following countries according to VARIOUS sources of differing levels of credibility (ordering from strongest presence to weakest):
- Libya [Source]
- Egypt (Sinai)
- Yemen [Source]
- Afghanistan-Pakistan (Khorasan) [Source]
- Nigeria (Boko Harem swore allegiance to ISIL) [Source]
- Somalia (some factions inside Al-Shabaab, but not the entire organization)
- North Caucasus (Dagestan and Chechnya)
- Saudi Arabia (presence seen in minor attacks)
- Philippines [Source]
- Algeria (possibly disbanded by government forces) [Source]
ISIL may be a nuisance to the West but to Russia and China they are REAL threats. Russia has had issues with the same hardliner Wahhabists in Chechnya and Dagestan to the point of open conflict. As for China, a large Uighur population lives in the heartland of the Chinese state. These Uyghur’s are Turkic in terms of ethnicity and have a somewhat cold relationship with the Han Chinese (I’m putting it mildly). [Source]
The Islamic State Mastery of Warfare:
- Humvee-operations (thanks to Iraq’s 2nd Motorized Division)
- Advanced communication and co-ordination to wage war across two theatres on multiple fronts.
- Chemical warfare [Source]
- Suicide bombers (car bombs) [Source]
- Mines, IEDs, traps, etc. including bomb-making.
- Tunnel warfare (both offensive and defensive in nature).
- Adaptation to counter-strategy (as seen against US air strikes, Russian air strikes, Iraqi ground offensives, etc.)
- Operational stealth (being able to move men and material into an AO without being spotted in the air and without any electronic emissions (radios) can be considered operational stealth)
- US assault tactics [Source]
- Escalating terror tactics (beheadings, immolations, etc.)
- Strategic and operational competence.
- Scorched Earth [Source]
- Mass killings [Source]
- Statecraft [Source][Source][Source]
- Shock tactics (human-wave attacks, light infantry charges, suicide vehicles)
- Ability to absorb heavy causalities and sustain sieges/offensives [Source]
- Psychopharmacology [Source][Source]
- Infiltration and sleeper cells [Source]
- Hybrid tactics (merging conventional and irregular techniques/forces) [Source]
- Recruitment and logistics [Source]
- Public Relations (Propaganda, whatever) [Source]
- Internal security (preventing the leaks of plans and of silencing any internal dissidence/deserters) [Source]
Islamic State and the situation today:
How ISIL is surviving in Iraq and Syria is still remarkable. It is being assaulted on all fronts, sustaining heavy causalities, and has suffered from a series of operational defeats only to find ways to shift the balance in their favor again (or in the very least neutralize gains made by opponents).
Their ability to react is uncanny yet purposeful. All combat seen from ISIL as of late is a form of delaying action. Attacking supply lines to slow down offensives in Syria. Setting up multitudes of defenses guarded by suicidal-god-fearing Mujahids in urban centers held by ISIL. Planting IEDs, mines, and other booby traps everywhere they go (as seen by the need to demine the recently recaptured highway between Khanasser and Ithriyah in Syria). Engaging Syrian and Iraqi forces on multiple fronts in consistent assaults.
All these military maneuvers are a sign of the tremendous pressure ISIL is enduring. Suicidal attacks are not reinforced to capture territory but to wreak havoc. The mass migration of fighters outside the Syrian theater is an indication some are writing off the Syrian campaign as a loss. There appears to be a more observable shift in focus on other fronts by ISIL, such as recruitment in Afghanistan, transferring fighters to other countries (Jordan, Turkey, Libya, etc.), the decreasing number of barbaric videos, the destruction of historical sites (as if to lure a reaction from the SAA).
It’s as if they’re buying time for something, either to hide back into the population or to await reinforcements/support (maybe the West has something cooking if you believe that ISIL is completely under their control).
On some fronts the Islamic State enjoys freedom of movement and projects itself not only militarily but also its governmental apparatuses that sustain its war machine (Libya, Yemen, Syria, etc.). In other fronts ISIL fighters remain hidden and careful highlighting the limited manpower and capabilities of the organization (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Europe?)
The question remains though, what is running ISIL?
What is ISIL? Who is behind ISIL?
The theories are abound. Terrorist group, proxy force, myth, grass roots organization, Gog and Magog/Yajuj and Majuj. The list really is endless.
The most popular theories I’ve seen to date are as follows:
The Islamic State is:
An offshoot of Al-Qaeda. A group of hard believers from Al-Qaeda who managed to have more success than their parent organization in attracting recruits, financing, and support. This splinter cell became more radical and took on an apocalyptic view of the world, believing the end times are truly here and the great battle against the roman (Christians) in Dabiq is soon upon them. [Source]
An Israeli-creation. Muslims who hate other Muslims so much they would rather kill for the Jewish state because that’s super Halal these days.
But in all seriousness this theory treats ISIL as just an asset, a tool which receives medical support, air cover, special airstrikes preceding offensives, and other assistance from Israel. In some iterations of this theory Israel can be replaced or partnered with the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, CIA, Mossad etc. or a combination of all those players.
So called “evidence” for this theory:
- Iran’s claim this is Operation Hornet’s Nest, an operation to lure Jihadists from all over the world into one centralized area to be dealt with or controlled appropriately. (the support from Snowdon about this is non-existent but Iranian TV presented it as if Snowdon was revealing the operation) [Source]
- The lack of ISIL attacks on Israeli targets (ever).
- Israel medical support to rebels and terrorists, including ISIL. [SOURCE]
- Israel’s assistance in attacking Syrian Arab Army targets at times during ISIL offensives (though confirming this is a lot harder than you imagine).
- ISIL openly threatens Hamas instead of providing solidarity. [SOURCE]
- The United States one year air campaign against ISIL which only resulted in a fraction of the results the Russians achieved a year later against the Islamic State (though this can be attributed to a strategy to funnel them towards the easier and non-targeted Syria)
- Claims that ISIL is directly under NATO control to destabilize Russia [Source]
A Syrian intelligence creation. After all once ISIL caught the world’s attention Assad stopped being such a bad guy. The alternative to Assad was nothing close to stability and thus it shifted its focus away from the government and onto the larger evil.
- Russia’s entry in the war on behalf of the Syrian government to fight extremism.
- Assad did release many hardened criminals into society in the early years of the crisis before its complete outbreak into war. These outlaws were discovered to have directly joined Al-Qaeda and potentially created ISIL as we know it today. [Source]
- Syrian intelligence infiltrators have been known to operate inside Islamists and rebel units for some time. How many have climbed the ranks and have achieved leadership positions is yet to be known. [Source]
- Both Islamists and rebels have engaged in open fighting with the Islamic State. These both benefit Syria by having ISIL continuously grind against Islamists and rebels alike.
A private military contractor/mercenary force/elite special forces being financed by one of the mentioned parties above. As part of their assignment they grow their beards, cover their faces, and are follow a neo-Nazi strategy designed to evict, execute, or intimidate the people of the region.
- The level of cohesion ISIL seems to have. Units respond accordingly. Intelligence is acted upon with efficiency. A degree of experienced adaptability (against Russian air strikes, against Syrian ground offensives, against multiple fronts).
- The quality of attacks (IRGC officer assassinations, attacking exposed SAA desert supply lines, etc.) indicating accurate intelligence gathering at a national-level.
- The Western-style tactics of using US Army assault tactics (I’ve used this source before) and armored vehicle (Humvee) combat maneuvers.
- Qatar and its transporting of mercenaries to help Islamists. [Source]
- Talk of these “white hat” mercenaries which are masquerading as humanitarians. [SOURCE][SOURCE]
A myth. Kind of like the FSA. A CIA-Hollywood film used to control the narrative. ISIL seen on Youtube and in the media are just CIA staged events in a Langley office (or in Ohio or Texas or even somewhere in Mexico), acting out barbarity which is used to demoralize forces in a massive PSYOP with militias on the ground being led by US/Israeli/[Insert other nations of interest here] Special Forces.
The propaganda (by CIA-Hollywood; Zero Dark Thirty is a prime example of writing history) us used alongside human wave attacks by suicidal jihadists on attack vectors carefully planned out by Western Special Forces. These assaults are used to create a maximum shock effect on populations much more “awing” then Donald Rumsfeld’s ‘Shock and Awe’ doctrine. Rumors abound and ISIL in reality is nothing more than a mirage and good PR. ISIL is just an umbrella term for all militias/gangs/factions that are involved in this operation.
“Evidence” of support:
- Videos such of the early days of the crisis showing FSA soldiers destroying a Syrian tank with just a grenade (this video is most probably staged though I’ll admit, the effects are cool) [SOURCE]
- CIA attempting to fake videos of certain individuals (Osama Bin Laden) and jihadists alike. [Source] [Source]
- This so called leaked video of a staged beheading (not really evidence but you get the idea) [Source]
- Syrian rebels openly admitting FSA is just an umbrella term and there is no real unified command.
- The ISIL official magazine titled Dabiq seems like something out of a CIA playbook. Their articles include covering military tactics and strategies, religious news, and battlefield situations. The magazine is in English and has a somewhat surprisingly excellent level of quality (links to the PDFs are on the same page). [Source]
A shadowy organization led by mastermind and rapist of white-women Omar Al-Baghdadi. Al-Baghdadi is the new Number 1 to his Islamic-Spectre. Being Number 1 of an evil organization, Baghdadi can be one of the following:
- A real Muslim badass who really believes in this Wahhabi stuff. An Original G one might say. He probably doesn’t even look at explosions but merely walks away from them nonchalantly like a true badass would.
- A secret Jew as part of the Jewish conspiracy to rule the world by creating an entity which in reality just exposes those that want to resist (like 1984s Emmanuel Goldstein). All energy that could have been used to fight Israel/US/West in the Middle East is instead being used to fight other Muslims, including popular factions such as Hezbollah.
(Similiar to the theories about Operation Snowden; A CIA program to oust potential US dissidents especially within the intelligence community. Part of Full-Spectrum Dominance, particularly in the media and as a form of inter-governmental blackmail.)
- A CIA officer recruited by David Petraeus while Baghdadi was being held by US forces at Camp Bucca detention center during the early years of occupation.
- Some random preacher of a town of 50 people who probably don’t have running water or power and are unaware he is the mascot to ISIL.
A multi-polar organization that is more fluid and dynamic than initially conceived. With no predictability, high levels of corruption, and spontaneous group action (influenced by networks inside the organization). These networks involve local actors (such as tribes, militias, factions, so forth), intelligence agencies (Turkish, Israeli, US, etc.), regional factions (Al-Qaeda, Saudi cabals, GCC emirs, etc.) and of course the internet.
- Tribes, militias, and factions which have pledged loyalty or have worked closely with ISIL [Source]
- Iraqi Ba’athist support (as seen during ISILs “Northern Offensive”) [Source]
- Turkish intelligence connections and the use of the black market in Turkey to sell oil (Turkey has a rich black market which includes sex-slaves and organ trading as well).[SOURCE]
- Al-Qaeda links of the past
- US support in training, weapons, intelligence, and logistics.[SOURCE]
- Israel and its Golan Heights support by providing not only medical support but also providing a semi-safe zone protected by Israeli helicopters and tanks. [Source]
- Saudi Arabia and Qatar support in media coverage, financing, and demanding Russia stop bombing ISIL when the air strikes began (most likely because some of the royal family emirs might be in the command centers pretending to be jihadis when in reality they are only there to keep financing the fight). [Source]
- International and regional infiltrators and insiders (sponsored by intelligence agencies, governments, private interests, etc.)
- Foreign fighters volunteering (or mercenaries being hired) [Source]
- Child recruits (don’t forget to get them on those drugs on an early age) [Source]
- Kids wearing masks and making a video and claiming they are part of the Islamic State, most probably inside Iraq and Syria. [Source]
A rogue cell gone wild. A group inside Al-Nusra that was once supported with some financing, intelligence, and logistics by a foreign intelligence power has evolved past its original mandate and design to have a life of its own. A nightmare of blowback in the worst possible way.
- Hamas is a direct example of such an operation. An Israel attempt to counterbalance the PLO created a hostile faction with a mind of its own some 20-years later. [SOURCE]
- The Taliban in Afghanistan was supported by the Pakistani ISI as well as the CIA which, if you believe the official story, blew back in the face of the US in the form of Al-Qaeda.
- The destruction of heritage sites being the final sign of losing control of the organization. The Taliban and Al-Qaeda both did similar things to ancient sites in Afghanistan.
The New World Order. ISIL is just part of their great plan in ruling the world and bring the end-times. How they piece together is still unknown but because the New World Order and co. owns the mainstream media it’s safe to say that the NWO is behind ISIL. As a matter of fact just like how the NWO likes to speak to us in ceremonies and architecture it so too speaks to us in mass media.
- In 2001 EA Studios release Command and Conquer General which pits three factions against each other in a fictitious modern real-time strategy setting. The United States of America, China, and the Global Liberation Army (GLA). The GLA is exactly as ISIL is, suicide bombers, chemical weapons, tunnels, bad accents, beards, etc. [Source]
- Even the gameplay of the GLA as a faction (leaving aside its obvious Middle Eastern style of design) was centered on suicide units, tunnels, stealth, hijacking and has an abundance of cheap and fast units. However the GLA has no air force and in terms of durability and firepower is the weakest faction technologically, relying on numerical superior and surprise. [Source]
- GLA structures can regenerate back after being destroyed, no matter how many time you destroy a command center, it’ll come back.
- Remind you of anyone?
Clearly this means that the NWO were foreshadowing their future moves in turning the Middle East into one homogenous terror-haven. Electronic Arts (EA) is traded on the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ is the ultimate base of power for the evil-worshipping NWO. Because the NWO love to speak in riddles, it is only safe to assume that Command and Conquer Generals is the NWOs designs for the Middle East through a game-puzzle. However the prediction was slightly off, involving China instead of Russia, but the game is set in 2013 (NWO KNEW IT ALL 14 YEARS EARLIER!) [Source]
I should note the GLA was defeated by the Chinese so Russia will clearly win against the Islamic State. But of course like a cancer the GLA came back in the expansion CnC Generals Zero Hour to only be defeated again by the Chinese this time purging them from EUROPE. The NWO predict the Islamic State in Europe too!
[I hope no one took that seriously, just wanted to illustrate absurd coincidences do happen]
Islamic State Limits?
ISIL is definitely a multicultural multiethnic organization blending peoples from all of the Islamic world, local Arabs, Western emigrates, and muslims from the far east and central Asian countries.
Their ability for war is surprising. They crave legitimacy. Minting gold coins which can be traded throughout the world isn’t something out of a fanciful dreams. They must feel confident. All it takes is one country to admit that the Islamic State is a ‘movement’ and that is the thin line needed to be on the path of legitimization.
How they’ll achieve this is hard with the massive opposition ISIL faces. However as stated time and time again ISIL isn’t incompetent. They seem to have a plan. When they first beheaded an American and the US was going to get involved against the Islamic State militarily everyone said that this was the end of ISIL. When Russians entered the fray with their in-house air force everyone said that the Islamic State will collapse soon. And although the Islamic State was surprised with the entry of the Russian air force into the Syrian conflict, it openly beheaded an American inviting the US to increase the number of airstrikes.
Every time the Islamic State finds a way to escape its own death sentence. The guys behind the levers are playing to win. They don’t talk about one year or two year plans but ten year plan… the generational plan. How long does the Islamic State have to last until the children born under its banner turn of age ready for war?
Yet we are beginning to see limitations of the Islamic State. Signs that ISIL is unsustainable.
Its inability to adapt its social policies will make it hard to gain wider support amongst Sunnis. There also seems to be signs of internal debate about the treatment of non-Muslims, specifically the rapes and enslavements. In the past many fighters shrugged off the reports as Western propaganda but it appears more and more are discovering the true nature of their so called Caliphate. Desertions have been noted, the high desertions after the Russian air strikes were not only due to demoralization but representing those who were already in doubt of the Islamic State. Other issues stem from the unpredictability in governance and the ethnic tensions between foreigners and natives (Iraqis and Syrians). [Source][Source][Source]
The one thing I find striking is how many times these ISIL jihadists curse the “Western puppet Syrian regime” in videos of attacks on the SAA. By theses fools standards Assad’s regime is considered a Western puppet. I don’t know if the Russian airstrikes reinforced this idea but if they see Assad as Western…. I mean… how far east do you need to go before that isn’t true?
It might have to do with ISILs belief in the apocalypse and it transpiring during their time. The battle of Dabiq will be during the last hour of the apocalypse (Dabiq is located in Syria). This battle will pit the best soldiers of Medina against the Roman armies. One can only assume the best of Muslim warriors against Christian armies. The Muslims win a resounding victory which will trigger the end times and the beginning of end of the world. [Source]
If they truly believe it is the end times (or if ISIL leadership is just using that to lure in the apocalyptic-recruits) it’s not hard to imagine the reinforcement of belief an ISIL fighter gets from witnessing US planes and Russian helicopters operating inside Syria. Truly it is the end times for these people for here are the Roman armies. Sprinkle a bit of amphetamine-induced euphoria and you have the making of a very complicated religious experience.
The Islamic State is set to fizzle out unless their top leadership finds a way to shift the situation again. The Russian involvement, the shift in US strategy, the Iraqi and Syrian ground victories have all taken tolls on the ISIL.
Foreign fighters have decreased both in numbers on the ground and in fresh recruits. Two world powers are already involved against the Islamic State. Support from the GCC has slowed down considerably (perhaps a few emirs are still covertly supporting parts of the organization). Stockpiles are being destroyed or used up in fighting with little to no hope of replenishment save the black markets. Financial sources are being destroyed or recaptured (Baiji and the oil refineries). Strategic areas and city centers are slowly being reclaimed by governments.
If the Islamic State can make a comeback from this entire episode than it’s safe to assume that an external force is assisting them with a lot more than just recruitment and financing. Until then only time will tell who is (was) behind the Islamic State.