The context: a double declaration of war
Listening to Poroshenko a few days ago and then to Obama at the UNGA can leave no doubt whatsoever about the fact that the AngloZionist Empire is at war with Russia. Yet many believe that the Russian response to this reality is inadequate. Likewise, there is a steady stream of accusations made against Putin about Russia’s policy towards the crisis in the Ukraine. What I propose to do here is to offer a few basic reminders about Putin, his obligations and his options.
First and foremost, Putin was never elected to be the world’s policeman or savior, he was only elected to be president of Russia. Seems obvious, but yet many seem to assume that somehow Putin is morally obliged to do something to protect Syria, Novorussia or any other part of our harassed world. This is not so. Yes, Russia is the de facto leader of the BRICS and SCO countries, and Russia accepts that fact, but Putin has the moral and legal obligation to care for his own people first.
Second, Russia is now officially in the crosshairs of the AngloZionist Empire which includes not only 3 nuclear countries (US, UK, FR) but also the most powerful military force (US+NATO) and the world’s biggest economies (US+EU). I think that we can all agree that the threat posed by such an Empire is not trivial and that Russia is right in dealing with it very carefully.
Sniping at Putin and missing the point
Now, amazingly, many of those who accuse Putin of being a wimp, a sellout or a naive Pollyanna also claim that the West is preparing nuclear war on Russia. If that is really the case, this begs the question: if that is really the case, if there is a real risk of war, nuclear or not, is Putin not doing the right thing by not acting tough or threatening? Some would say that the West is bent on a war no matter what Putin does. Okay, fair enough, but in that case is his buying as much time as possible before the inevitable not the right thing to do?!
Third, on the issue of the USA vs ISIL, several comment here accused Putin of back-stabbing Assad because Russia supported the US Resolution at the UNSC.
And what was Putin supposed to do?! Fly the Russian Air Force to Syria to protect the Syrian border? What about Assad? Did he scramble his own air force to try to stop the US or has he quietly made a deal: bomb “them” not us, and I shall protest and do nothing about it? Most obviously the latter.
In fact, Putin and Assad have exactly the same position: protest the unilateral nature of the strikes, demand a UN Resolution while quietly watching how Uncle Sam turned on his own progeny and now tries to destroy them.
I would add that Lavrov quite logically stated that there are no “good terrorists”. He knows that ISIL is nothing but a continuation of the US-created Syrian insurgency, itself a continuation of the US-created al-Qaeda. From a Russian point of view, the choice is simple: what is better, for the US to use its forces and men to kill crazed Wahabis or have Assad do it? And if ISIL is successful in Iraq, how long before they come back to Chechnia? Or Crimea? Or Tatarstan? Why should any Russian or Syria soldier risk death when the USAF is willing to do that for them?
While there is a sweet irony in the fact that the US now has to bomb it’s own creation, let them do that. Even Assad was clearly forewarned and he obviously is quite happy about that.
Finally, UN or no UN, the US had already taken the decision to bomb ISIL. So what is the point of blocking a perfectly good UN Resolution? That would be self-defeating. In fact, this Resolution can even be used by Russia to prevent the US and UK from serving as a rear base for Wahabi extremists (this resolution bans that, and we are talking about a mandatory, Chapter VII, UNSC Resolution).
And yet, some still say that Putin threw Assad under the bus. How crazy and stupid can one get to have that kind of notion about warfare or politics? And if Putin wanted to toss Assad under the bus, why did he not do that last year?
Sincere frustration or intellectual dishonesty?
But that kind of nonsense about the Syria is absolutely dwarfed by the kind of truly crazy stuff some people post about Novorussia. Here are my favorite ones. The author begins by quoting me:
“This war has never been about Novorussia or about the Ukraine.”
and then continues:
That statement is too vacuous and convenient as a copout. Do you really mean to say that the thousands of people murdered by shelling, the thousands of young Ukrainian conscripts put through the meat grinder, the thousands of homes destroyed, the more than 1 million people who have turned into refugees… NONE of that has anything to do with Novorussia and Ukraine? That this is only about Russia? Really, one would wish you’d refrain from making silly statements like that.
The only problem being, of course, that I never made it in the first place :-)
Of course, it is rather obvious that I meant that FOR THE ANGLOZIONIST EMPIRE the goal has never been the Ukraine or Novorussia, but a war on Russia. All Russia did was to recognize this reality. Again, the words “do you really mean to say that” clearly show that the author is going to twist what I said, make yet another strawman, and then indignantly denounce me for being a monster who does not care about the Ukraine or Novorussia (the rest of the comment was in the same vein: indignant denunciations of statements I never made and conclusions I never reached).
I have already grown used to the truly remarkable level of dishonesty of the Putin-bashing crowd and by now I consider it par for the course. But I wanted to illustrate that one more time just to show that at least in certain cases an honest discussion is not the purpose at all. But I don’t want to bring it all down to just a few dishonest and vociferous individuals. There are also many who are sincerely baffled, frustrated and even disappointed with Russia’s apparent passivity. Here is an excerpt of an email I got this morning:
I guess I was really hoping that perhaps Russia, China The BRICS would be a counter force. What I fail to understand is why after all the demonisation by the U.S and Europe doesn’t Russia retaliate. The sanctions imposed by the West is hurting Russia and yet they still trade oil in euros/dollars and are bending over backwards to accommodate Europe. I do not understand why they do not say lift all sanctions or no gas. China also says very little against the U.S , even though they fully understand that if Russian is weakened they are next on the list. As for all the talk of lifting the sanctions on Iran that is farcical as we all know Israel will never allow them to be lifted. So why do China and Russia go along with the whole charade. Sometimes I wonder if we are all being played, and this is all one big game , which no chance of anything changing.
In this case the author correctly sees that Russia and China follow a very similar policy which sure looks like an attempt to appease the US. In contrast to the previous comment, here the author is both sincere and truly distressed.
In fact, I believe that what I am observing are three very different phenomena all manifesting themselves at the same time:
1) An organized Putin-bashing campaign initiated by US/UK government branches tasked with manipulating the social media.
2) A spontaneous Putin-bashing campaign lead by certain Russian National-Bolshevik circles (Limonov, Dugin & Co.).
3) The expression of a sincere bafflement, distress and frustration by honest and well-intentioned people to whom the current Russian stance really makes no sense at all.
The rest of this post will be entirely dedicated to try to explain the Russian stance to those in this third group (any dialog with the 2 first ones just makes no sense).
Trying to make sense of an apparently illogical policy
In my introduction above I stated that what is taking place is a war on Russia, not hot war (yet?) and not quite an old-style Cold War. In essence, what the AngloZionists are doing is pretty clear and a lot of Russian commentators have already reached that conclusion: the US are engaged into a war against Russia for which the US will fight to the last Ukrainian. Thus, for the Empire, “success” can never be defined as an outcome in the Ukraine because, as I said previously, this war is not about the Ukraine. For the Empire “success” is a specific outcome in Russia: regime change. Let’s us look at how the Empire plans to achieve this result.
The original plan was simplistic in a typically US Neocon way: overthrow Yanukovich, get the Ukraine into the EU and NATO, politically move NATO to the Russian border and militarily move it into Crimea. That plan failed. Russia accepted Crimea and the Ukraine collapsed into a vicious civil war combined with a terminal economic crisis. Then the US Neocons fell-back to plan B.
Plan B was also simple: get Russia to intervene militarily in the Donbass and use that as a pretext for a full-scale Cold War v2 which would create 1950’s style tensions between East and West, justify fear-induced policies in the West, and completely sever the growing economic ties between Russia and the EU. Except that plan also failed – Russia did not take the bait and instead of intervening directly in the Donbass, she began a massive covert operation to support the anti-Nazi forces in Novorussia. The Russian plan worked, and the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) were soundly defeated by the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) even though the latter was suffering a huge deficit in firepower, armor, specialists and men (gradually, Russian covert aid turned all these around).
At this point in time the AngloZionist plutocracy truly freaked out under the combined realization that their plan was falling apart and that there was nothing they could really do to rescue it (a military option was totally impossible as I explained it in the past). They did try economic sanctions, but that only helped Putin to engage in long overdue reforms. But the worst part of it all was that each time the West expected Putin to do something, he did the exact opposite:
- Nobody expected that Putin would use military force in Crimea in a lightening-fast take-over operation which will go down in history as at least as amazing as Storm-333.
- Everybody (including myself) expected Putin to send forces into Novorussia. He did not.
- Nobody expected Russian counter-sanctions to hit the EU agricultural sector.
- Everybody expected that Putin would retaliate after the latest round of sanctions. He did not.
There is a pattern here and it is one basic to all martial arts: first, never signal your intentions, second use feints and third, hit when and where your opponent doesn’t expect it.
Conversely, there are two things which are deeply ingrained in the western political mindset which Putin never does: he never threatens and he never postures. For example, while the US is basically at war with Russia, Russia will gladly support a US resolution on ISIL if it is to Russia’s advantage. And Russian diplomats will speak of “our American partners” or “our American friends” while, at the same time, doing more than the rest of the planet combined to bring down the AngloZionist Empire.
A quick look at Putin’s record
As I have written in the past, unlike some other bloggers and commentators, I am neither a psychic not a prophet and I cannot tell you what Putin thinks or what he will do tomorrow. But what I can tell you is that which Putin has already done in the past: (in no particular order)
- broken the back of the AngloZionist-backed oligarchy in Russia.
- achieved a truly miraculous success in Chechnia (one which nobody, prophets included, had foreseen).
- literally resurrected the Russian economy.
- rebuilt the Russian military, security and intelligences forces.
- severely disrupted the ability of foreign NGOs to subvert Russia.
- done more for the de-dollarization of the planet than anybody before.
- made Russia the clear leader of both BRICS and SCO.
- openly challenged the informational monopoly of the western propaganda machine (with projects like RussiaToday).
- stopped an imminent US/NATO strike on Syria by sending in a Russian Navy Expeditionary Force (which gave Syria a full radar coverage of the entire region).
- made it possible for Assad to prevail in the Syrian civil war.
- openly rejected the Western “universal civilizational model” and declared his support for another, a religion and tradition based one.
- openly rejected a unipolar “New World Order” lead by the AngloZionists and declared his support for a multi-polar world order.
- supported Assange (through RussiaToday) and protected Snowden
- created and promoted a new alliance model between Christianity and Islam thus undermining the “clash of civilization” paradigm.
- booted the AngloZionists out of key locations in the Caucasus (Chechnia, Ossetia).
- booted the AngloZionists out of key locations in Central Asia (Manas base in Kyrgyzstan)
- gave Russia the means to defend her interest in the Arctic region, including military means.
- established a full-spectrum strategic alliance with China which is at the core of both SCO and BRICS.
- is currently passing laws barring foreign interests from controlling the Russian media.
- gave Iran the means to develop a much needed civilian nuclear program.
- is working with China to create a financial system fully separated form the current AngloZionist controlled one (including trade in Rubles or Renminbi).
- re-establised Russian political and economic support for Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Brazil, Nicaragua and Argentina.
- very effectively deflated the pro-US color-coded revolution in Russia.
- organized the “Voentorg” which armed the NAF.
- gave refuge to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees.
- sent in vitally needed humanitarian aid to Novorussia.
- provided direct Russian fire support and possibly even air cover to NAF in key locations (the “southern cauldron” for example).
- last but not least, he openly spoke of the need for Russia to “sovereignize” herself and to prevail over the pro-US 5th column.
and that list goes on and on. All I am trying to illustrate is that there is a very good reason for the AngloZionist’s hatred for Putin: his long record of very effectively fighting them. So unless we assume that Putin had a sudden change of heart or that he simply ran out of energy or courage, I submit that the notion that he suddenly made a 180 makes no sense. His current policies, however, do make sense, as I will try to explain now.
If you are a “Putin betrayed Novorussia” person, please set that hypothesis aside for a moment, just for argument’s sake and assume that Putin is both principled and logical. What could he be doing in the Ukraine? Can we make sense of what we observe?
Imperatives Russia cannot ignore
First, I consider the following sequence indisputable:
First, Russia must prevail over the current AngloZionist war against her. What the Empire wants in Russia is regime change followed by complete absorption into the Western sphere of influence including a likely break-up of Russia. What is threatened is the very existence of the Russian civilization.
Second, Russia will never be safe with a neo-Nazi russophobic regime in power in Kiev. The Ukie nationalist freaks have proven that it is impossible to negotiate with them (they have broken literally every single agreement signed so far), their hatred for Russia is total (as shown with their constant references to the use of – hypothetical – nuclear weapons against Russia). Therefore,
Third, regime change in Kiev followed by a full de-Nazification is the only possible way for Russia to achieve her vital objectives.
Again, and at the risk of having my words twisted and misrepresented, I have to repeat here that Novorussia is not what is at stake here. It’s not even the future of the Ukraine. What is at stake here is a planetary confrontation (this is the one thesis of Dugin which I fully agree with). The future of the planet depends on the capability of the BRICS/SCO countries to replace the AngloZionist Empire with a very different, multi-polar, international order. Russia is crucial and indispensable in this effort (any such effort without Russia is doomed to fail), and the future of Russia is now decided by what Russia will do in the Ukraine. As for the future of the Ukraine, it largely depends on what will happen to Novorussia, but not exclusively. In a paradoxical way, Novorussia is more important to Russia than to the Ukraine. Here is why:
For the rest of the Ukraine, Novorussia is lost. Forever. Not even a joint Putin-Obama effort could prevent that. In fact, the Ukies know that and this is why they make no effort to win the hearts and minds of the local population. If fact, I am convinced that the so-called “random” or “wanton” destruction of the Novorussian industrial, economic, scientific and cultural infrastructure has been intentional act of hateful vengeance similar to the way the AngloZionists always turn to killing civilians when they fail to overcome military forces (the examples of Yugoslavia and Lebanon come to mind). Of course, Moscow can probably force the local Novorussian political leaders to sign some kind of document accepting Kiev’s sovereignty, but that will be a fiction, it is way too late for that. If not de jure, then de facto, Novorussia is never going to accept Kiev’s rule again and everybody knows that, in Kiev, in Novorussia and in Russia.
What could a de facto but not de jure independence look like?
No Ukrainian military, national guard, oligarch battalion or SBU, full economic, cultural, religious, linguistic and educational independence, locally elected officials and local media, but all that with Ukie flags, no official independence status, no Novorussian Armed Forces (they will be called something like “regional security force” or even “police force”) and no Novorussian currency (though the Ruble – along with the Dollar and Euro – will be used on a daily basis). The top officials will have to be officially approved by Kiev (which Kiev will, of course, lest its impotence becomes visible). This will be a temporary, transitional and unstable arrangement, but it will be good enough to provide a face-saving way out to Kiev.
This said, I would argue that both Kiev and Moscow have an interest in maintaining the fiction of a unitary Ukraine. For Kiev this is a way to not appear completely defeated by the accursed Moskals. But what about Russia?
What if you were in Putin’s place?
Ask yourself the following question: if you were Putin and your goal was regime change in Kiev, would you prefer Novorussia to be part of the Ukraine or not? I would submit that having Novorussia inside is much better for the following reasons:
- it makes it part, even on a macro-level, of the Ukrainian processes, like national elections or national media.
- it begs the comparison with the conditions in the rest of the Ukraine.
- it makes it far easier to influence commerce, business, transportation, etc.
- it creates an alternative (Nazi-free) political center to Kiev.
- it makes it easier for Russian interests (of all kind) to penetrate into the Ukraine.
- it removes the possibility to put up a Cold War like “wall” or barrier on some geographical marker.
- it removes the accusation that Russian wants to partition the Ukraine.
In other words, to keep Novorussia de jure, nominally, part of the Ukraine is the best way to appear to be complying with AngloZionist demands while subverting the Nazi junta in power. In a recent article I outlined what Russia could do without incurring any major consequences:
- Politically oppose the regime everywhere: UN, media, public opinion, etc.
- Express political support for Novorussia and any Ukrainian oppositionContinue the informational war (Russian media does a great job)
- Prevent Novorussia from falling (covert military aid)
- Mercilessly keep up the economic pressure on the Ukraine
- Disrupt as much as possible the US-EU “axis of kindness”
- Help Crimea and Novorussia prosper economically and financially
In other words – give the appearance of staying out while very much staying in.
What is the alternative anyway?
I already hear the chorus of indignant “hurray-patriots” (that is what these folks are called in Russia) accusing me of only seeing Novorussia as a tool for Russian political goals and of ignoring the death and suffering endured by the people of Novorussia. To this I will simply reply the following:
Does anybody seriously believe that an independent Novorussia can live in even minimal peace and security without a regime change in Kiev? If Russia cannot afford a Nazi junta in power in Kiev, can Novorussia?!
In general, the hurray-patriots are long on what should be done now and very short any kind of mid or long term vision. Just like those who believe that Syria can be saved by sending in the Russian Air Force, the hurray-patriots believe that the crisis in the Ukraine can be solved by sending in tanks. They are a perfect example of the mindset H. L. Mencken was referring to when he wrote “For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong”.
The sad reality is that the mindset behind such “simple” solutions is always the same one: never negotiate, never compromise, never look long term but only to the immediate future and use force in all cases.
But the facts are here: the US/NATO block is powerful, militarily, economically and politically and it can hurt Russia, especially over time. Furthermore, while Russia can easily defeat the Ukrainian military, this hardly would be a very meaningful “victory”. Externally it would trigger a massive deterioration of the international political climate, while internally the Russians would have to suppress the Ukrainian nationalists (not all of them Nazi) by force. Could Russia do that? Again, the answer is that yes – but at what cost?
I good friend of mine was a Colonel in the KGB Special Forces unit called “Kaskad” (which later was renamed “Vympel”). One day he told me how his father, himself a special operator for the GRU, fought against Ukrainian insurgents from the end of WWII in 1945 up to 1958: that is thirteen years! It took Stalin and Krushchev 13 years to finally crush the Ukrainian nationalist insurgents. Does anybody in his/her right mind sincerely believe that modern Russia should repeat that policies and spend years hunting down Ukrainian insurgents again?
By the way, if the Ukrainian nationalists could fight the Soviet rule under Stalin and Krushchev for a full 13 years after the end of the war – how is it that there is no visible anti-Nazi resistance in Zaporozhie, Dnepropetrivsk or Kharkov? Yes, Luganks and Donetsk did rise up and take arms, very successfully – but the rest of the Ukraine? If you were Putin, would you be confident that Russian forces liberating these cities would receive the same welcome that they did in Crimea?
And yet, the hurray-patriots keep pushing for more Russian intervention and further Novorussian military operations against Ukie forces. Is it not about time we begin asking who would benefit from such policies?
It has been an old trick of the US CIA to use the social media and the blogosphere to push for nationalist extremism in Russia. A well know and respected Russian patriot and journalist – Maksim Shevchenko – had a group of people organized to track down the IP numbers of some of the most influential radical nationalist organizations, website, blogs and individual posters on the Russian Internet. Turns out that most were based in the USA, Canada and Israel. Surprise, surprise. Or, maybe, no surprise at all?
For the AngloZionists, supporting extremists and rabid nationalists in Russia makes perfectly good sense. Either they get to influence the public opinion or they at the very least can be used to bash the regime in power. I personally see no difference between an Udaltsov or a Navalnii on one hand and a Limonov or a Dugin on the other. Their sole effect is to get people mad at the Kremlin. What the pretext for the anger is does not matter – for Navalnyi its “stolen elections” for Dugin it’s “back-stabbed Novorussia”. And it does not matter which of them are actually paid agents or just “useful idiots” – God be their judge – but what does matter is that the solutions they advocate are no solutions at all, just pious pretexts to bash the regime in power.
In the meantime, not only had Putin not sold-out, back-stabbed, traded away or otherwise abandoned Novorussia, it’s Poroshenko who is barely holding on to power and Banderastan which is going down the tubes. There are also plenty of people who see through this doom and gloom nonsense, both in Russia (Yuri Baranchik) and abroad (M. K. Bhadrakumar).
But what about the oligarchs?
I already addressed this issue in a recent post, but I think that it is important to return to this topic here and the first thing which is crucial to understand in the Russian or Ukrainian context is that oligarchs are a fact of life. This is not to say that their presence is a good thing, only that Putin and Poroshenko and, for that matter, anybody trying to get anything done over there needs to take them into account. The big difference is that while in Kiev a regime controlled by the oligarchs has been replaced by a regime of oligarchs, in Russia the oligarchy can only influence, but not control, the Kremlin. The examples, of Khodorkovsky or Evtushenkov show that the Kremlin still can, and does, smack down an oligarch when needed.
Still, it is one thing to pick on one or two oligarchs and quite another to remove them from the Ukrainian equation: the latter is just not going to happen. So for Putin any Ukrainian strategy has to take into account the presence and, frankly, power of the Ukrainian oligarchs and their Russian counterparts.
Putin knows that oligarchs have their true loyalty only to themselves and that their only “country” is wherever their assets happen to be. As a former KGB foreign intelligence officer for Putin this is an obvious plus, because that mindset potentially allows him to manipulate them. Any intelligence officer knows that people can be manipulated by a finite list of approaches: ideology, ego, resentment, sex, a skeleton in the closet and, of course, money. From Putin’s point of view, Rinat Akhmetov, for example, is a guy who used to employ something like 200’000 people in the Donbass, who clearly can get things done, and whose official loyalty Kiev and the Ukraine is just a camouflage for his real loyalty: his money. Now, Putin does not have to like or respect Akhmetov, most intelligence officers will quietly despise that kind of person, but that also means that for Putin Akhmetov is an absolutely crucial person to talk to, explore options with and, possibly, use to achieve a Russian national strategic objective in the Donbass.
I have already written this many times here: Russians do talk to their enemies. With a friendly smile. This is even more true for a former intelligence officer who is trained to always communicate, smile, appear to be engaging and understanding. For Putin Akhmetov is not a friend or an ally, but he is a powerful figure which can be manipulated in Russia’s advantage. What I am trying to explain here is the following:
There are numerous rumors of secret negotiations between Rinat Akhmetov and various Russian officials. Some say that Khodakovski is involved. Others mention Surkov. There is no doubt in my mind that such secret negotiations are taking place. In fact, I am sure that all the parties involved talk to all other other parties involved. Even with a disgusting, evil and vile creature like Kolomoiski. In fact, the sure signal that somebody has finally decided to take him out would be that nobody would be speaking with him any more. That will probably happen, with time, but most definitely not until his power base is sufficiently eroded.
One Russian blogger believes that Akhmetov has already been “persuaded” (read: bought off) by Putin and that he is willing to play by the new rules which now say “Putin is boss”. Maybe. Maybe not yet, but soon. Maybe never. All I am suggesting is that negotiations between the Kremlin and local Ukie oligarchs are as logical and inevitable as the US contacts with the Italian Mafia before the US armed forces entered Italy.
But is there a 5th column in Russia?
Yes, absolutely. First and foremost, it is found inside the Medvedev government itself and even inside the Presidential administration. Always remember that Putin was put into power by two competing forces: the secret services and big money. And yes, while it is true that Putin has tremendously weakened the “big money” component (what I call the “Atlantic Integrationists”) they are still very much there, though they are more subdued, more careful and less arrogant than during the time when Medvedev was formally in charge. The big change in the recent years is that the struggle between patriots (the “Eurasian Sovereignists”) and the 5th column now is in the open, but it if far from over. And we should never underestimate these people: they have a lot of power, a lot of money and a fantastic capability to corrupt, threaten, discredit, sabotage, cover-up, smear, etc. They are also very smart, they can hire the best professionals in the field, and they are very, very good at ugly political campaigns. For example, the 5th columnists try hard to give a voice to the National-Bolshevik opposition (both Limonov and Dugin regularly get airtime on Russian TV) and rumor has it that they finance a lot of the National-Bolshevik media (just like the Koch brothers paid for the Tea Party in the USA).
Another problem is that while these guys are objectively doing the US CIA’s bidding, there is no proof of it. As I was told many times by a wise friend: most conspiracies are really collusions and the latter are very hard to prove. But the community of interests between the US CIA and the Russian and Ukrainian oligarchy is so obvious as to be undeniable.
The real danger for Russia
So now we have the full picture. Again, Putin has to simultaneously contend with
1) a strategic psyop campaign run by the US/UK & Co. which combines the corporate media’s demonization of Putin and a campaign in the social media to discredit him for his passivity and lack of appropriate response to the West.
2) a small but very vociferous group of (mostly) National-Bolsheviks (Limonov, Dugin & Co.) who have found in the Novorussian cause a perfect opportunity to bash Putin for not sharing their ideology and their “clear, simple, and wrong” “solutions”.
3) a network of powerful oligarchs who want to use the opportunity presented by the actions of first two groups to promote their own interests.
4) a 5th column for whom all of the above is a fantastic opportunity to weaken the Eurasian Sovereignists
5) a sense of disappointment by many sincere people who feel that Russia is acting like a passive punching-ball.
6) an overwhelming majority of people in Novorussia who want complete (de facto and de jure) independence from Kiev and who are sincerely convinced that any negotiations with Kiev are a prelude to a betrayal by Russia of Novorussian interest.
7) the objective reality that Russian and Novorussian interests are not the same.
8) the objective reality that the AngloZionist Empire is still very powerful and even potentially dangerous.
It is very, very, hard for Putin to try to balance these forces in such a way that the resulting vector is one which is in the strategic interest of Russia. I would argue that there is simply no other solution to this conundrum other than to completely separate Russia’s official (declaratory) police and Russia’s real actions. The covert help to Novorussia – the Voentorg – is an example of that, but only a limited one because what Russia must do now goes beyond covert actions: Russia must appear to be doing one thing while doing exactly the opposite. It is in Russia’s strategic interest at this point in time to appear to:
1) Support a negotiated solution along the lines of: a unitary non-aligned Ukraine, with large regional right for all regions while, at the same time, politically opposing the regime everywhere: UN, media, public opinion, etc. and supporting both Novorussia and any Ukrainian opposition.
2) Give Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs a reason to if not support, then at least not oppose such a solution (for ex: by not nationalizing Akhmetov’s assets in the Donbass), while at the same time making sure that there is literally enough “firepower” to keep the oligarch under control.
3) Negotiate with the EU on the actual implementation of Ukraine’s Agreement with the EU while at the same time helping the Ukraine commit economic suicide by making sure that there is just the right amount of economic strangulation applied to prevent the regime from bouncing back.
4) Negotiate with the EU and the Junta in Kiev over the delivery of gas while at the same time making sure that the regime pays enough for it to be broke.
5) Appear generally non-confrontational towards the USA while at the same time trying as hard as possible to create tensions between the US and the EU.
6) Appear to be generally available and willing to do business with the AngoZionist Empire while at the same time building an alternative international systems not centered on the USA or the Dollar.
As you see, this goes far beyond a regular covert action program. What we are dealing with is a very complex, multi-layered, program to achieve the Russian most important goal in the Ukraine (regime change and de-Nazification) while inhibiting as much as possible the AngloZionists attempts to re-created a severe and long lasting East-West crisis in which the EU would basically fuse with the USA.
Conclusion: a key to Russian policies?
Most of us are used to think in terms of super-power categories. After all, US President from Reagan on to Obama have all served us a diet of grand statements, almost constant military operations followed by Pentagon briefings, threats, sanctions, boycotts, etc. I would argue that this has always been the hallmark of western “diplomacy” from the Crusades to the latest bombing campaign against ISIL. Russia and China have a diametrically opposed tradition. For example, in terms of methodology Lavrov always repeats the same principle: “we want to turn our enemies into neutrals, we want to turn neutrals into partner and we want to turn partners into friends“. The role of Russian diplomats is not to prepare for war, but to avoid it. Yes, Russia will fight, but only when diplomacy has failed. If for the US diplomacy is solely a means to deliver threats, for Russia it is a the primary tool to defuse them. It is therefore no wonder at all the the US diplomacy is primitive to the point of bordering on the comical. After all, how much sophistication is needed to say “comply or else”. Any petty street thug know how to do that. Russian diplomats are much more akin to explosives disposal specialist or a mine clearance officer: they have to be extremely patient, very careful and fully focused. But most importantly, they cannot allow anybody to rush them lest the entire thing blows up.
Russia is fully aware that the AngloZionist Empire is at war with her and that surrender is simply not an option any more (assuming it ever was). Russia also understands that she is not a real super-power or, even less so, an empire. Russia is only a very powerful country which is trying to de-fang the Empire without triggering a frontal confrontation with it. In the Ukraine, Russia sees no other solution than regime change in Kiev. To achieve this goal Russia will always prefer a negotiated solution to one obtained by force, even though if not other choice is left to her, she will use force. In other words:
|art: Josetxo Ezcurra|
Russia’s long term end goal is to bring down the AngloZionist Empire. Russia’s mid term goal is to create the conditions for regime change in Kiev. Russia’s short term goal is to prevent the junta from over-running Novorussia. Russia’s preferred method to achieve these goals is negotiation with all parties involved. A prerequisite to achieve these goals by negotiations is to prevent the Empire from succeeding in creating an acute continental crisis (conversely, the imperial “deep state” fully understands all this, hence the double declaration of war by Obama and Poroshenko.)
As long as you keep these basic principles in mind, the apparent zig-zags, contradictions and passivity of Russian policies will begin to make sense.
It is an open question whether Russia will succeed in her goals. In theory, a successful Junta attack on Novorussia could force Russia to intervene. Likewise, there is always the possibility of yet another “false flag”, possibly a nuclear one. I think that the Russian policy is sound and the best realistically achievable under the current set of circumstances, but only time will tell.
I am sorry that it took me over 6400 words to explain all that, but in a society were most “thoughts” are expressed as “tweets” and analyses as Facebook posts, it was a daunting task to try to shed some light to what is turning to be a deluge of misunderstandings and misconceptions, all made worse by the manipulation of the social media. I feel that 60’000 words would be more adequate to this task as it is far easier to just throw out a short and simple slogan than to refute its assumptions and implications.
My hope that at least those of you who sincerely were confused by Russia’s apparently illogical stance can now connect the dots and make better sense of it all.
Kind regards to all,
Russia Discovers Massive Arctic Oil Field Which May Be Larger Than Gulf Of Mexico
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/27/2014 – 11:52
In a dramatic stroke of luck for the Kremlin, this morning there is hardly a person in the world who is happier than Russian president Vladimir Putin because overnight state-run run OAO Rosneft announced it has discovered what may be a treasure trove of black oil, one which could boost Russia’s coffers by hundreds of billions if not more, when a vast pool of crude was discovered in the Kara Sea region of the Arctic Ocean, showing the region has the potential to become one of the world’s most important crude-producing areas, arguably bigger than the Gulf Of Mexico. The announcement was made by Igor Sechin, Rosneft’s chief executive officer, who spent two days sailing on a Russian research ship to the drilling rig where the find was unveiled today.
Thanks much for that. A very good list of Putin’s accomplishments and the challenges now. A couple of minor questions or issues.
-I would have thought Dugin was an ex-National Bolshevist and now a Eurasianist. Admittedly, one of a strongly patriotic bent, but relatively supportive of Putin.
-Many Western supporters of Putin do not see how the goals of “all of the Ukraine” or regime change in Kiev can be done without force and some degree of occupation, though this could be by the NAF. The problem is that the country is full of anti-Russian people now. And there are some competently evil oppressors, such as Avakov, who can prevent Kharkov or Odessa from doing anything. The US has suppressed areas that were 80% or more against the fascist government that the US installed. Stopping Kharkov or Odessa shouldn’t be that hard.
So, if regime change has to be by the NAF, why not help them do it now? Why wait?
-Many supporters of Novorossiya feel that the Kremlin has been using the locals the way the US used the Hmong in the Vietnam War. Just cannon fodder. Not mean, just cold. We all understand why, but what are the locals fighting for? Are they fighting to be part of the Russian world? It would be a lot better if a majority of the folks in Novorossiya felt that Putin had their back.
This is not meant to be anti-Putin; he has done a great job. But I have met many Russians who seemed to be out of touch regarding the Ukraine. I have also met many Ukrainians, and it is easy to imagine a regime change that will be a lot nastier towards Russia, but hard to see one that is remotely pro-Russia. 23 years of rabidly anti-Russian media and educational and cultural systems have done this.
Your writing is always interesting but not always superb. This is superb, well worth the 64,000 words of attention.
The naivety and/or the prejudices/ill will/actions of the opponents, which are not restricted to nation states or geographical location, are not necessarily disadvantages, although it appears that many contributors to this blog perceive them as disadvantages – hence their notion of the raison d’etre of the blog and contingent contributions.
Similarly ” what is turning to be a deluge of misunderstandings and misconceptions, all made worse by the manipulation of the social media.” is not necessarily a disadvantage, nor is “a society were most “thoughts” are expressed as “tweets” and analyses as Facebook posts”, nor even “a daunting task to try to shed some light”.
The opponents were at war with the Soviet Union from its inception, even during the Great Patriotic War.
The opponents have been at war with Russia since it became Russia as opposed to the Soviet Union – the present difference being that in the 1990’s the opponents believed they were in the ascendant, and it had utility for others not to disabuse them of such notions, and simultaneously but without attribution, to encourage the opponents illusions giving hubris opportunity and reign.
Part of the present vehemance on the part of the opponents is discomfort at realisation of their lack of ascendancy – some even still holding to the illusions that they “won” the cold war and that the war was cold.
Some of the opponents, including John Mearsheimer and Stephen F. Cohen are trying to disabuse some other of the opponents of some of their illusions in the hope of returning to “detente” – i.e. conducting war on a more discreet, less noisy basis.
It is fortunate that Russian strategy appears illogical as this indicates the belief of the opponents in their own omniscience, namely being fully cognisant of all logic.
Only part of your post that I think perhaps should be more nuanced is:
“Russia’s long term end goal is to bring down the AngloZionist Empire”.
I would say that Russia’s long term goal is more accurately to survive and prosper through the collapse of the AngloZionist Empire. Though, I suppose, you may argue that by standing up to the empire, you bring it down. The nuances here are about passive versus aggressive action/goals.
The AngloZionist Empire is showing a great deal of natural talent in destroying itself. Its inherent “business model” is growing increasingly obsolete in a multipolar world.
Putins made in clear to Hugo Chaves during his visit to Russia that he’s not interested playing a world leader but he likes it or not Russia is too big to be ignored in the world affaires. He’s betrayel of his own people in Donbas is his own problem. Not the world but there are implications of that action in moral,ethical and politica
sense.It’s a small world after all.
Ukraine is not a real nation, but a state that took over lands that historically belonged to Poland, Hungary, Romania and Rus.
I do agree fully with your long but clear words and explanations.
As Italian I’m not pleased how things are going in my land; but we reckonize we are still under occupation and we are unable to regain soveregnity. I personally rely on Russia aims for the future. Tanks for your effort. Long life to you!
I had always thought of Russia as playing chess and the US as playing poker. The Americans fail to calculate risks thinking they are impervious to attack, Russians calculate because of their history.
Now I understand why Stalin wanted buffer states in Central Europe, once those were lost Russia itself became vulnerable….
Western Europe failed to build the Europe we needed to integrate Russia and the US pulled down the curtain for fear of how powerful Europe might become but I think the long game is Russia integrated into European trade and Putin is playing a long game to outlast Obama, the weakest President since Coolidge
Who or what is Echo Ditto?
It is preventing me from seeing the original VOTS.I came here via Oceania and France,a pleasant journey all the same.
Excellent explanations, Saker. As one of your “third” group, I am very appreciative. Thanks!
Paul II said…@ 27 September, 2014 17:08
Arachnology may illuminate.
In fact, people are disappointed that Putin/Russia doesn’t act like Obama/US: interfere, interfere … “do something”.
Why the idea of letting countries sort out their problems by themselves so alien to us?
Ah, Saker, what a treat this Saturday morning to read your masterpiece of analysis!
Ever since reading Joaquin Flores at CSS (http://syncreticstudies.com/2014/09/11/ukraine-novorossiya-there-never-was-a-ceasefire/) I’ve been struck by this notion of the “simulacrum” and 4th generation warfare, that Flores says Russia has learned extremely well.
The US has the luxury of total control of the media, and can be careless with its actions. For this reason, much of its activity is actually somewhat transparent. Russia doesn’t have this luxury. It’s compelling that not only do Russia’s enemies not understand what she’s doing, her friends don’t either. This is how it should be and I’ve come to revel in her strength at this game – because in the end it speaks to the potential survival of humans and maybe even a good life for future generations (i.e., if Russia wins against the AZ).
Part of combat may consist of times of stand-off spent teaching your opponent to speak your language, rather than adopting your opponent’s language. I wonder with Russia’s focus on nuanced action whether the US is being forced to study nuance a little more. You cited Bhadrakumar, and I would include Ziad Fadel for the Syria aspect (U.S. Coordinating With Syria on Air Strikes, Maybe?
). Both views suggest a more sober US than I’ve been used to, with an appreciation of the nuanced traps it finds itself in.
Your article reminds me of a tournament match I watched once between two Sumo wrestlers. In the preliminary stand-off, the reigning champion faked an initial move, that his opponent totally bought into and moved against. All could see who lost that match.
Even in American football, there is the Juke, which even the US can understand:
Football’s Best Jukes
Have a great weekend!
Your best analysis and statements.
Putin already has control of events in Ukraine. He has military, economic, and political sway. He is caviling all the shots. Picture Porko with his arm twisted behind his back by the smaller judo master. Same with the oligarchs. They know and saw that Russian military can destroy all their holdings in hours. Their holdings are in Putin’s cauldron.
Only the dense and the trolls don’t get it.
Saker, as for your writing, we all know you work under pressure from employment and family and worldwide trolls harassing you.
This is an extraordinary piece today. It deserves tight editing and posting world wide. Sincerely, a concise version would be required reading in every foreign ministry on the globe.
Brilliant, warts and all.
I’d be happy to edit for you.
Superb, Saker! So refreshing and comforting for my loving-Putin and Russia heart…
I feel growingly depressed in this supposedly informed but so ignorant and zombified west :(
thank you for being there!
You are the indefitagable one Saker. I always know when the pace of posting slows a little something like this is forthcoming.
I am sincerely grateful to have access to your work. You are definitely penetrating. I often see lamestream media using your work as a guide when they want to produce convincing disinformation. A turn of phrase or a particular logical arrangement always comes up and I say:
They got that directly from Saker!
Thank you so much.
I think that this boils down to something very simple that nobody truly understands:
STATES ARE NOT PEOPLE.
They don’t have “friends” nor “feelings” whatsoever and it is a proper behavior of politicians to proceed as such notwithstanding public opinion.
ah, sorry, bad link on Ziad Fadel: US Coordinating With Syria on Air Strikes, Maybe?
You are right, Putin did not sign up to be the worlds leader.. Yet that is what he has become and screaming or yelling that is what he will become. I dont think he has a choice in the matter…
Its either that or accepting that mad dog foaming psychopath lets bomb everybody.
Reading this makes my deinoiscs easier than taking candy from a baby.
Superb, Saker! Soooo refreshing and comforting to my Putin and Russia-loving heart!…
I feel growingly depressed in a west supposedly informed but completly ignorant and zombified public opinion :(
Thanks for being there for us!
(Why is it so difficult to publish a comment? I’m a real dumy…)
Putin has “supported Assange (through RussiaToday)”
I wonder why.
Assange is “annoyed” by people seeking the truth about 9/11, while landing his only significant whistle blower, Manning, in jail. But perhaps Assange is a double agent!
By responding to Western aggression rationally and without apparent rancor, Putin is no doubt gaining the adherence of what the Anglo/Zionists would consider a Western fifth column: that is, people of the US satellites in Europe, the Americas, Asia, and Africa who, like patriotic Russians, desire the freedom of a multipolar world in which the nation state will not be the target of universal cultural and racial genocide through the forces of mass migration, the mass killing of the unborn, the promotion of non-reproductive sex, etc., plus multi-culturalism.
Very objective article, i like that. As a person who obsesses over geopolitics and favors Russia I agree eith most things.
Just one question, on the matter of reforms that are supposedly under way? Could you be more specific?
Surely the arrest of one oligarch and the better economic prospects of domestic agriculture and car industries because of sanctions aren’t all?
I would like to see the purging of corruption in middle management of the state as Xi Jinping is doing gradually for years now and finally cleaning the corruption in infrastructure sector.
Because of it a kilometer of new road in Russia is 5 times more expensive than in the West and total number is 1 trillion $.
Thanks Saker for the brilliant analysis. When one person plays poker and the other chess, there is no way you can predict the future of the play, but you can know the lay of the land and that is what you gave us today, for now. My distrust in this situation is not Putin but it is in the CIA and their plan C–where they up the ante because their mentality is basically that the winner takes all and they deserve to do so. This is the hubris of pride/entitlement and greed. combined. Also, their chief weakness is their belief that the Russians are stupid and incompetent.
Russia just announced a huge arctic oil field. Their newest ally is Exxon-Mobil. Sanctions are an obstacle.
Regime change happened in the US over SE Asia/South China Sea oil in 1963. Exxon-Mobil will not be frozen out of this arctic oil development.
It changes the game in energy and within the US oval office. No one gets in the way of oil profits. JFK lost his head in Dallas, mostly because he wanted to abandon SE Asia.
Texans took care of that obstacle.
Exxon-Mobil is a Texas corporation.
And Exxon knows that Chinese state oil will gladly take over their share if sanctions continue.
So, expect major shakeup in Washington. Either the sanctions go, or someone will be ‘tapped’ by a lone assassin or tragic accident.
Victory Oil Field
I agree, this was a treat to read. You’ve become essential reading for me this year as I closely follow events in Ukraine and Russia after not paying close attention since I travelled there in the late 80s and early 90s. I appreciate your work. It is an education for me. Keep it up.
Thanks for the analysis.
It makes 100% sense not to escalate sanctions, not to let the NAF to Kiev; instead of making war, make business, let the EU pay the ukrainian bills, and new russian tanks, let the Oligarchs rebuild Dobass, fix economical problems inside russia and give the people in NR jobs and a future. If one watches videos, e.g. from liveleak it is obvious, that there is already something like an organized state, to the very opposite of Ukraina. I think the people in NR deserve a live in peace, and it is not their duty to fight to Lviv.
Dear Saker, this one very much clarified the mindset and its implementations. Thank you dearly again. Have a good weekend
I agree with you Saker: The one and most important: Putin is the president and undisputed leader of Russia. His main duty is to see the well being of it. If I remember correctly, Putin was not positive for Novorussia to conduct the polls that eventually would lead to the status that we witness today. On the other hand Putin has not let down Novorussia in its struggles to be free from Kievs junta. In summary, Putin has not disappointed me.
As a great admirer of Putin I do agree with much of Saker’s evaluation of Putin’s and Russia’s performance to date.
Where we part ways is with regard to Russia’s rhetoric and presentation of the issues. This is a very important point, but Russia’s performance here is quite weak.
First of all let me say that Putin is hands down the greatest statesman of the present time. Perhaps even since the end of WW2. Watching him is to watch a true master at work. Putin is head shoulders and belly button above the likes of Obama and Cameron.
Now Saker’s analysis analysis of Putin’s performance is as penetrating and illuminating as ever. But there are a couple areas he does not give their due importance. First is Rhetoric/Presentation and second is China.
Saker is right, this is a global struggle against Russia and what is at stake, for Russia, is its survival. Yet Putin is not trying to rally the global public! Russia’s case is not being presented in a way that can capture the global mind. The world is fed up with US threats, wars and depradations, it just doesn’t know where to turn.
True Putin was not elected to be world leader. But the Russia’s success in this war against it will require global support. Putin must rise to this challenge. Russia’s rhetoric is too soft. At the very list Putin should have gone to UNGA and made a historic speech. Its not even that he shuld bang his shoe on the podium, smell the sulphur or call Obama el diablo. He just needs to make a speech along the lines of his 1987 Munich speech!
Russia needs to name names and release damning intelligence about US actions.
Russia cannot win this war with just top down political strategy. It must also cultivate a bottom up anti-imperial rebellion. This requires a rhetoric capable of rallying the global 99%.
With regard to China and Ukraine (and Saker’s analysis) Putin is also constrained to acting in ways that do not complicate China’s international position vis-a-vis the US and Europe.
In a more general sense Russia needs to set aside its traditional fear of China. China is not expansionary it will not try and take Siberia. Putin needs to expand Russia-China economic ties at breakneck speed. Including selling China the tech it needs to modernize its military. Russia has no chance of catching up with China economically, even in the long term. Russia must accept Chinese economic leadership in the east. The policy should be to bind Russia and China so tightly that the prospect of future war becomes unthinkable.
In a wider sense I Would say that Russia may not see itself as a world leader but a lot of countries particularly those outside of the ‘international community’ have been conditioned to see her as such. Thus from my perspective the Olympic Opening Ceremony was a declaration fo a Russian ‘Modernity’ and the Western Answer to it was the Azov Brigade and ISIS. To me it seems that the Americans are desperately hyperactive, The Europeans are committing some kind of collectivsed, colonised economic suicide (more payoff for nato bases, maybe) and the Russians, at least, are playing a game of politely and overtly waiting, seeing and restrainedly reacting while, typically doing just enough covertly to keep the situation stable and developing. The question to me is that in order to create the necessary crisis, is a false flag the only option? I think it might be.
I suspect (don’t know at all) that the leftists in Russia who attack Putin for inaction in Novorussia tend to be culturally Americanized. I may be wrong on this.
But after many years in the US I can say this about American culture. Subtlety is seen as weakness. Absence of bravado and self aggrandizement is seen as weakness. The injunction to speak softly and carry a big stick does not really operate except for the part about the big stick. It really works more as threaten loudly and brandish a big stick. In American culture, overt in your face power/wealth is what earns respect.
This is probably the source of impatience with Putin among his US supporters and “Americanized” Russians.
So ofcourse Americans would have expected a full fledged Russian invasion of Ukraine. I must say that I never expected Putin to do that from the first. Others within our armchair general staff were sure he would do so. I did detect a certain cultural proclivity for direct confrontation as the best solution to any problem.
The “nuclear strike” might be an unexpected one in the form of a devastating nuclear accident if the dangerous and reckless Kiev fascist regime decides to use Westinghouse fuel for its nuclear reactors not designed for this unsafe fuel as it is in the process of deciding to do.
A Russian minister has warned on the devastating effects of a nuclear war as well.
Be very wary of Paul Craig Roberts (see House of Cards) latest articles and completely reckless and dangerous advocacy of armed confrontation by China and/or Russia shooting down US airplanes in Syria to defeat ISIS. And then further absurd claim that this would cause all the monarchies of the Arab countries to collapse. PCR, although he lays out the aims of the US MIC, has lost it in terms of the prosription. I fully endorse Saker’s prescription in this regard although not his attempts to blame all attempts of demonisation of Putin on “Bolshevik” Dugan.
Russian nationalism is growing rabid and displaying a number of insular and unhealthy characteristics in response to the US threats I’m not going to go into. But this has long been a Russian historical problem. Playing upon Russian nationalism can be a two-edged sword.
I totally support Lavrov’s reasoned approach because diplomatic and political rapprochement with the US is the ONLY way to wind down which the HOT Cold War which is already in effect in the US support of Poroshenko and shelling of Eastern Ukraine. This was a Washington-sponsored operation from the gitgo. Poroshenko is only the tool just as in the Middle East, Israel is the dog while the US is the mastermind and director of the Western NATO bombing operation of Syria.
As some have warned and few have listened to the warnings about the US-led bombing operations of Syria, it is the US and those countries who bomb ISIS who will face all the blowback. US generals themselves just declared yesterday ISIS cannot be defeated by bombing. So this makes PCR’s assertions in advocating China bomb US planes in Syria even more ridiculous besides making him look like a Dr. Strangelove crackpot.
Russia has no reason to intervene. The long term political defeat of fascism and Islamic extremism can only be won by winning over the people with a political program.
Your list(about 28 bullets) of real achievements is an outstanding summary. I think it deserves to be maintained by being:
1) updated as soon as new real objective has been ascertained
2) provided with dates of accomplishment and/or links to relevant info/cites.
It provides such a great counterargument to MSM lies and spin.
You have about 3-4 bullets and a paragraph dealing with 5-th column, specifically
“effectively deflated the pro-US color-coded revolution in Russia”
Not all of the 5-th column is bad! In fact, there are varieties of 5-th columns, call them 5.0 (the original one) followed by 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 … each one having a different objective, some of them friendly others not. It is due to the existence of these that the color-coded provocations amounted to a fart in barrel.
Best regards, Spiral
Correction to my comment at 27 September, 2014 19:25. I was referring to Putin’s 2007 Munich Security conference speech. Don’t know where 1987 came from :)
Incredibly one can only get blurry Youtube videos of this speech.
Russia’s long term strategy should be to abide.
There is a tide in human affairs. The Western missionary zeal to spread its version of liberal democracy will abate and the West will become preoccupied with the internal problems it brought upon itself.
Well, you may have this ‘rose-tinted’ vision of Vlad ‘The Hammer’ Putin, but white noise, western MSM always knows best; Vladimir Putin Has Been Planning World War 3 For The Last Decade, Former Adviser Warns.
I’m not linking to this garbage, because BI doesn’t deserve any extra clicks.
If hypocrisy would be a poisonous smell, this entire planet would be void of anything alive [save for some odd life forms, living 400 miles down in the Earth’s crust].
Respect! The insight into matters concerning Russia and Putin is truly remarkable. Also the remarks about Dugin correspondent in unison with my “gutt feeling”. Thanks!
Thank you for your insights. I really enjoy your perspectives.
The current global situation in reality is a struggle between the NWO debt slavery & humanity. We all need to do contribute in a positive way towards this struggle before we ask anyone including Russia or Putin to do anything.
What are some ways in which all of us can steer this struggle so we can transition towards a better global order that brings peace, prosperity and happiness to all?
One idea is to reduce the usage of the NWO fuel i.e. the US dollar that keeps it strong. One of your earlier commentators said it well that there is absolutely no good reason why international trade should be conducted in USD. All countries in BRICS and the world need to reject the U.S. dollar in international settlements. This is the most effective way to limit the energy of the NWO. Also, people need to boycott all products & services of Wall Street & other NWO controlled companies. Who are the financiers of the NWO or this empire? We must work to cut off their oxygen supply – money.
It will be great to hear other ideas including boycotting the NWO media sources.
Can’t agree with the statement about Syria. USA can and may very well turn their attention to the Assad regime at any moments notice. There are already talks from pentagon officials of enforcing a no-fly zone throughout the whole country. ‘no-fly’ in American terms means ‘bomb anything’, meaning any troops they can find they will bomb, like in Libya.
Until proven otherwise, I’m not sold on your assessment of the Syrian situation at all. Russia should’ve anticipated this long ago and acted on it long ago
Excellent! I have been reading Vineyard of the Saker since Russia turned back the Empire of Finance’s war machine from destroying Syria in September, 2013. It was a seminal event signaling the failure of full spectrum dominance and the emergence of a multi-polar world system. Diversity is always and everywhere a more robust system, than the fragility of uniform systems with the soothing certainty of utopian ideologies, whether communism or finance capitalism. The multi-polar world is anti-fragile. Empires are fragile!
The world is at the end of the Age of Enlightenment with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the impending collapse of the Empire of Finance. The era of collapse of ideology is characterized by chaos all and everywhere and from the ruins emerge human beings capable of subtle principled action to restore the possibility of the flowering of human potential. Life is not going to commit suicide!
Humility is the defining characteristic of the remnant tasked to restore the traditions of family, culture, and religion elevating humanity above mere animal functions of food, sex, and sleep promised by the human resource, progress and efficiency doctrines of the messiahs of the Age of Enlightenment.
The essay is a gift of logic and compassion presented for us the readers who all too easily fall into one or the other of the dichotomies that characterize the ordinary (lazy) human mind. It is the hawk’s eye perspective of the Saker which enables the human mind to transcend our ignorance and bigotry, usually the result of identifying with on point of view.
Mammon will always be with us, but is not sufficient to preserve human dignity and evolution. It is Russia’s gift to the world to reconcile the world of Caesar with the world of God in the affairs of nations, peoples and cultures.
A brief word on tradition… Those who seek to weigh and measure everything may not appreciate the folksy wisdom which is part of the heritage of humanities long ascent. Here is an aphorism which transcends the understanding of utopian ideology, game theory and human resource experts.
Vladimir Putin is not a fanatic; because a fanatic is a man who will burn the barn to kill a rat!
Some people are just so easily pushed by the “hate Russia” propaganda, plus many still have a Cold War mindset view of the Russians(one guy at my job called them “Soviets”). By and large stubborn and stuffy old farts you cannot reason with. I see them as stuck in a time-warp. Time marches on, things change, but many do not. Their refusal to adapt and the level of denial is epic.
Hollywood plays no small part in shaping American perceptions of Slavs in general and Russians in particular.
Even some smarter people who doubt the Empire’s lies and motives still have a hard time making that little leap and getting over the record skipping in their brains that says:
Putin = Corruption
Russia = Gangsters
Largely because of Cold War hangover and Hollywood.
Zio Occupied AmeriKa
Thanks indeed. But there is one point, softness and assertiveness publicly are needed. This element is missing, and while the chinese can be low profile since they do not lead, russia must raise the voice naturally, and call a spade a spade, for everyone to hear. In latin america, where russia is having an official reception, the msm is clearly in the usual hands.
One cannot cede any space.
I am one of those described as:
3) The expression of a sincere bafflement, distress and frustration by honest and well-intentioned people to whom the current Russian stance really makes no sense at all.
I have noticed that when Russia (or Novorossia too) goes on the offensive and wins at the front, then the west offers more parts of former Ukraine to get a cease-fire:first the Crimea, then also the liberated parts of Donbass, then the whole of Donbass and so on. But when Russia (and thereby Novorossia) stops the offensive or tries to de-escalate then the west and their parrots in the Kiev-hunta demands more: to get back the liberated Donbass and then the Crimea too! What does that teach us?Only one thing: show weakness and you will lose, be strong and you will win. The west and the Kiev-fascists only understand power. Only a continued offensive to liberate all of Novorossia and all parts east of the Dnepr and Transniestria too will solve this war positively for Russia and Novorossia!
And I see that you too come to this same conclusion:
In the Ukraine, Russia sees no other solution than regime change in Kiev. To achieve this goal Russia will always prefer a negotiated solution to one obtained by force, even though if not other choice is left to her, she will use force.
So where is the difference?
I say Russia should use more force, earlier, to the same end result. And given Russia has the most effective army and nuclear arsenal, the west will not go to war. Their “trap” for Russia is to scare her from liberating Novorossia (8-10 regions, oblasts) by force!
Well, I agree with the main substance of your analysis. In fact I’ve already written pretty much the same thing, though much, much, shorter, somewhere else. It’s gratifying that we agree on so much, in a world that often appears to be totally crazy and run by lunatics!
I think Putin will go down as one of the truly great Russian leaders. His achievements are close to remarkable already.
Russian needs to be very careful and adopt a smart defensive strategy buying as much time as possible to build its defenses and consolidate its relationships with the other BRIC nations. If Russia can avoid war with the West for long enough, which’ll be difficult, there’s a good chance the US economy will crash again, as it’s a gigantic ponzi house of cards, and then the US empire will be put under enormous strain and could begin to break up internally.
So, basically, Russia has to ‘roll with the punches’ and play a longterm waiting game, and not be drawn into any kind of trap leading to humiliation for Putin and regime change in Moscow.
Russia is dealing with a rich, incredibly powerful, utterly cynical and deadly ruthless enemy.
You say Novorossia cannot afford to be a fully independent country while the neonazi government continues in Kiev.
But you also say or imply that Novorossia will be just fine living “officially” under the Ukrainian flag, even if in reality with a great degree of autonomy.
This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. It is not really possible that you believe this, or if you do, you must be deluded. It’s at the same level as supposing that the widespread nazism and especially the widespread Russophobia will somewhow just go away.
At the same level as the utterly grotesque supposition that the succesful passing of lustration laws directed by the neonazis against their political opponents will end up weakening the neonazis hold on power.
How can anyone write such nonsense?
When you keep saying that this is not about Novorussia, that it’s not Novorussia what is at stake, the clear implication is that we should not pay too much attention to the atrocious humanitarian disaster that has unfolded and continues to unfold there.
That is exactly your implication. Saying that you didn’t say it in so many words does nothing to eliminate it, as long as you keep saying this is not about Novorussia. Because in fact, whatever else this may be about, it is also about Novorussia.
The notion that the current wait-and-see strategy is going to bring about the de-nazification of the Ukraine is just unbelievable.
Kiev is gone to the western dogs. Repeat: gone. Those are vicious junkyard dogs. They won’t let go. Nor will the mental virus of Russophobia + nazism be erradicated just because you wish it to be. After the massive brainwashing they’ve had, they will remain russophobic for a very very long time.
Russia needs to concentrate on establishing the full Novorussia all the way to Odessa, the territories where the population won’t be massively against them. The rest is gone.
It won’t get there by playing wait and see. It will get there by full decisive support on the ground to push back the Kiev forces to their own den.
Amazing text. Regards from Serbia.
What I have seen in Ukraine is that the US can’t handle the country and can’t defeat Russia. Neither can the EU. I guess that is why we have heard extremely emotional statements and seen selfdefeating sanctions. That is why Merkel calls Putin.
What I see in Ukraine are the deficiences of the Empire. So many mistakes, so many costly mistakes. Russia suffers, but so does the US/EU Empire. We see an Empire biting itself in the foot and talking aggressively with foot in mouth.
We see an Empire making mistakes that hasten its demise. Russia suffers, but will eventually come out stronger than before. All I see the Empire doing is counterproductive. I am nobody in this world but I know Russians are best at defence. Always have been. With time, economic counter measures will make the country stronger. I know that because I have some understanding of history and Russian mentality and that changes slowly over the centuries. How come many of us on this blog understand these things, but the White House and the State Department do not? If you are American or European, look at your Emperors and see they have no clothes. Ukraine is a big scandal for our leaders, they have failed on every account, they stand with their pants down and the shame should be rubbed in. Tar and feathers, yes, one day that might happen. I hate anarchy, so I will not take part, but I will also not say a word if it happens.
Poroshenko is worried. I think he knows he will face one of the international courts in the future. Massgraves, organ trading and the killing of civilians in Donbass. He is responsible and I am not sure the Empire can protect him.
Those of you who believe that Ukrainian fascism is just going to go away somehow through economic pressures, watch this:
Ukraine. “Fascism As It Is.” A film by Andrey Karaulov
Retired Indian ambassador M K Bhadrakumar, recommended by Saker, hints Putin and Iran are both about to betray Syria’s Assad and allow his regime to fall …
Let us remember that Russia did in fact totally betray Libya and Qaddafi, Russia signed and approved the ugly UN resolution that led to overthrow of Libya’s government, Qaddafi’s horrid anal rape and killing, tens of thousands of Libyan dead, and Libya a failed state in war and chaos today …
Russia did that in Libya, even tho Putin knew Qaddafi was a major and key pillar of the ‘Anti-Anglo-Zionist’ resistance, which Saker claims Putin favours …
Qaddafi was targeted, with Russia’s public consent … because Qaddafi advocated selling oil in non-dollars, independence of Western central banks, and for Africans to have their own currency …
Africa where, at the moment, as Dr Christof Lehmann points out, 14 African countries have their currency issued, controlled, and manipulated by the central bank of France, using the Nazi-occupation-model of economic control that France itself suffered in Vichy, which France has now turned on France’s not-so-former colonies … (the Nazi-occupation economic model, is also the model of the euro, with strong big powers running a currency over weaker nations, a currency helping to financially rape them, as Europe’s Mediterranean countries are being raped today by the mis-matched euro)
Bhadrakumar hinting at Assad’s grim future, with Iran kissing the US arse now and dreaming Atlanticist dreams –
I cannot believe that any state would be a deliberate party to a nuclear detonation, either as a false flag operation or as an act of war. The effects and consequences would be global and uncontrollable.
And bombing Japan what was that? DUI in the ME what is that? Agent Orange, what was that oh Chemical Weapons….PNAC, First Strike, Full Spectrum Dominance, “Bunker Busters”…etc, etc. They war game this stuff on a daily basis….the so called best and brightest at that.
Agreed, the AZ empire will up the ante to no end including use of nuclear weapons. It would not be surprising in the least that there is a strong pro-nuke faction waiting for an opportunity to murder hundreds of thousands in a horrendous manner (just as their progenitors did in Japan). Its more than a strategy to fight Russia, the BRICS or the growing movement to free humanity from the psychopaths – it feeds a sickness that is at the core of the AZ empire. To me, it seems inevitable that a nuclear weapon will be detonated (or attempted to be detonated). It will be up to Putin and his allies to limit the consequences.
Dear Saker – this is your best fusion yet of the complexities of current world events into a coherent and utterly logical explanation of Putin and Russian strategy. I realize it is a huge effort to produce such an analysis. Simply magnificent!
Barring a miracle Putin’s tasks outdo those faced by Hercules. The Real Evil Empire will follow the Samson Option and destroy the world, ie launch nuclear war, before giving up their total global dominance. That’s how psychopaths think.
Be very wary of Paul Craig Roberts (see House of Cards) latest articles
presumably including his “Will Russia and China Hold Their Fire Until War Is the Only Alternative?”
In that he says “the Russian government could most likely destroy NATO by responding to sanctions imposed by Washington and the EU by informing European governments that Russia does not sell natural gas to members of NATO.” Sounds like a good idea. NATO is obviously an alliance currently engaged in an attempt to subjugate or destroy Russia, so why should Russia aid those countries who are a party to this attempt?
I totally support Lavrov’s reasoned approach because diplomatic and political rapprochement with the US is the ONLY way to wind down which the HOT Cold War which is already in effect
Since Russia has tried diplomatic and political rapproachement for the last half-year, and it has got nowhere except to give Kiev/NATO time to put together enough military force to crush Novorussiya and maybe retake Crimea, and since the psychopaths in Washington have NO interest in a diplomatic solution but appear to be relying on military means to achieve their goals (the only thing they understand), it seems to me that you are advocating a course for Russia which will lead (at best) to its subjugation by the AZE.
I think it’s time for Russia to drop its faith in diplomacy (perhaps hard for a diplomat such as Lavrov to do) and take stronger steps, preferably non-military (for now). Putin could begin with a purge of the Atlanticist Integrationists, combined with a withdrawal from all Western institutions controlled by the US or the EU (such as the Council of Europe).
Anonymous 21.31, if human organ trafficking has been engaged in then you know the Israelis, the world’s paramount ‘entrepreneurs’ in this black trade, will have been operating. No doubt Kolomoisky will be doing the needful for his brethren.
Thanks for the long-form post, Saker! You have a way of saying exactly what’s on my mind, only better and with more detail. That’s why I keep coming back.
I also just want to second what somebody above said about Paul Craig Roberts: his foreign policy stuff is getting battier. I still trust him on economics, finance, etc. But not on foreign policy. He’s been pushing the ‘Putin is weak’ story hard. I totally disagree. If Putin ever makes any threats, it must be in private. In public, he always offers his opponent a face-saving exit. But he has never backed down when challenged. He just doesn’t always do what they expect. He humiliates them. He’s a hundred times the statesman they’ll ever be.
Daniel Rich, the poisonous smell we really need to be afraid of, that will take out 90% or so of life (judging from the end Permian extinction) is that of hydrogen sulphide.
Gretings from Singapore:
As usual, Saker’s analysis is outstandingly correct.
To the Dugin’s et armchair al. nauseating us with imperatives: Walter Benjamin warned us that whenever the ‘sanctity’ of life is proclaimed,the smell of real blood being spilled is never far away.
In Realpolitik, what counts, is the sustainable survival and long term interest of the nation and Putin seems to follow this correctly.
An excellent analysis and explanation Saker. Thank you for
taking the time to explain what
makes perfect sense..
Last Speech of Mu’ummar Qaddafi … before he was betrayed and killed with Russia’s public consent given to his killers:
In the name of Allah, the …beneficent, the merciful…
For 40 years, or was it longer, I can’t remember, I did all I could to give people houses, hospitals, schools, and when they were hungry, I gave them food. I even made Benghazi into farmland from the desert, I stood up to attacks from that cowboy Ronald Reagan, when he killed my adopted orphaned daughter, he was trying to kill me, instead he killed that poor innocent child. Then I helped my brothers and sisters from Africa with money for the African Union.
I did all I could to help people understand the concept of real democracy, where people’s committees ran our country. But that was never enough, as some told me, even people who had 10 room homes, new suits and furniture, were never satisfied, as selfish as they were they wanted more. They told Americans and other visitors, that they needed ‘democracy’ and ‘freedom’ never realising it was a cut-throat system, where the biggest dog eats the rest, but they were enchanted with those words, never realising that in America, there was no free medicine, no free hospitals, no free housing, no free education and no free food, except when people had to beg or go to long lines to get soup.
No, no matter what I did, it was never enough for some, but for others, they knew I was the son of Gamal Abdel Nasser, the only true Arab and Muslim leader we’ve had since Salah-al-Deen, when he claimed the Suez Canal for his people, as I claimed Libya, for my people, it was his footsteps I tried to follow, to keep my people free from colonial domination – from thieves who would steal from us.
Now, I am under attack by the biggest force in military history, my little African son, Obama, wants to kill me, to take away the freedom of our country, to take away our free housing, our free medicine, our free education, our free food, and replace it with American style thievery, called ‘capitalism’, but all of us in the Third World know what that means, it means corporations run the countries, run the world, and the people suffer.
So, there is no alternative for me, I must make my stand, and if Allah wishes, I shall die by following His path, the path that has made our country rich with farmland, with food and health, and even allowed us to help our African and Arab brothers and sisters.
I do not wish to die, but if it comes to that, to save this land, my people, all the thousands who are all my children, then so be it.
Let this testament be my voice to the world, that I stood up to crusader attacks of NATO, stood up to cruelty, stoop up to betrayal, stood up to the West and its colonialist ambitions, and that I stood with my African brothers, my true Arab and Muslim brothers, as a beacon of light.
When others were building castles, I lived in a modest house, and in a tent. I never forgot my youth in Sirte, I did not spend our national treasury foolishly, and like Salah-al-Deen, our great Muslim leader, who rescued Jerusalem for Islam, I took little for myself…
In the West, some have called me ‘mad’, ‘crazy’, but they know the truth yet continue to lie, they know that our land is independent and free, not in the colonial grip, that my vision, my path, is, and has been clear and for my people and that I will fight to my last breath to keep us free, may Allah almighty help us to remain faithful and free.
Is it a chain, 1 down, 3 to go? – Qaddafi / Libya … Bashar Assad / Syria … Novorossiya … Russia itself?
Dear The Saker,
Thank you for your excellent thoughts as always.
Just a point I would also like to add to your insightful piece.
I think the reason you have some people reacting in the manner they do is cultural too.
In the West people are brought up to see things in a different way to the Eurasian view. So fundamentaly those people don’t get Russia’s reactions. They don’t understand the cultural differences and therfore believe Russia (and China) should act in the same way as the US/EU/AZ way – and that is their downfall.
If these people could stand back and look at it through the cultural mindset of Russia (and China) – they would understand more the reactions we see.
I think some of the commenters on here need to recognise we are not all the same and these cultural differences are very important to understand people’s reactions too.
This is in addition, of course, to all the points you raise today.
On to another point today on RT – which I wanted to bring to your attention.
I was disgusted and sickened by a so called “ethics group” in Germany who want to legalise incest between siblings. This is how depraved the “EU” is becoming. What must other parts of the world think of this :(…….
This is just another level that I am very sure the BRICS and others want to detangle themselves from. The complete lack of morality of the so called “civilised” AZ empire and the fact they don’t seem to see anything wrong with it. But maybe we shouldn’t be surprised as they have no qualms in the killings of so many other human beings and the destruction of family.
Thank you Saker for a master piece in political analysis.
I have MANY points of contention about Russia ‘syrian approach but as we are now in the middle of a horrid war in Syria this is Not the time to venture any critic.It is the time to “serrer les rangs”as the french would say.And have faith in the political approach of the countries we believe really fight tooth and nails for breaking this Western imperialism that has brought untold suffering to humanity in the last 6 centuries,Russia being in the forefront of this fight of survival.
I also think that you don’t grasp completely the Syrians and you are a little bit ungracious when you state that Russia is the only one that saved Syria,hoping that I didn’t misinterpret your writing(if so than all my apologies).You underestimate the will of the axis of Resistance and their strength,and they already have proven without a doubt their capabilities in Iraq,Lebanon and Palestine.Remember Syria is the centre of the axis.
Syria has built over the years circles of allies,independent of each other,Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand in the regional level,Russia on the world stage and others that prefer to remain in the shadow.Si if one of these circles would relent and that is a very big if,the others will still be there.
In Syria,Iraq,Novorussyia rivers of blood are flowing but these rivers have deflated a bigger conflagration .
Again many thanks for this remarkable work
After due consideration, based on what little one can learn from open sources, I am forced to conclude that no one can predict with any certainty what may happen in Ukraine and regionally, and in the Middle East, over the course of the rest of this autumn and through the winter.
You pick it. However, the odds are against peace and tranquility. This is not an Era of Good Feeling.
thx. That s why i m here and reading this blog. Not for only few words, but for some explanations and other fews. Again thx.
God blesses Russia and President Putin! Yes, just in “one ring” in the Kara Sea region of the Artic Ocean, Rosneft found amount of oil “competitive” with Saudi Arabia and superior to the Gulf of Mexico”. I wish I could have seen the western leaders’ faces!
Putin must taxαtion the oligarcs and to raise the salarys of middle class.This is the no one problem of Russia.The middle class fells aggrieved when see the oligarchs to exhibit untaxed wealth boldly.If Putin win the heart of Russians will win and the Aglozionist
Many people are saying that Putin has betrayed Assad and Syria. That could be. The lack of serious Russian opposition to the US attacks in Syria suggests that:
1. Putin has betrayed Assad in the same way that Medvedev betrayed Gaddafi.
2. A secret deal has been reached between US-Syria-Russia
3. Putin is withdrawing strategically from a confrontation over Syria while leaving his options open.
I think that 3 is the most likely case. Especially since 2 is really 3 in disguise anyway. Given the ISIS manipulations and US determination to strike Syria. Russia’s direct action options there are very limited.
If Russia intervened in Syria militarily it may well have prevented direct US attacks. But it would have risked being enmeshed in long, costly military quagmires simultaneously in both Syria and Ukraine. This could be Afghanistan twice over.
On the other hand, if Russia allows the US to directly attack Syria (it really cannot prevent such an attack without massive Russian military presence in Syria) then its the US which faces the prospect of being entrapped in a Syrian quagmire.
Russia then preserves the option of giving Syria access to the ‘military surplus store’. And forcing the US to take its eye off 1. Ukraine 2. the pivot to the pacific
At the same time Syria and Assad are not entirely lost. Syria/Assad is much stronger than Libya/Gaddafi. With Russian covert/indirect military support and supply they can probably hold out for a long time. And inflict substantial damage on the empire.
In short Russia’s apparent caving on Syria may be a strategic move designed to relieve pressure in Ukraine while allowing the US to blunder into a trap of its own making.
Mulga Mumblebrain 27 September, 2014 21:54
Dear Sir, Mulga, we have reliable reports of organ trading in Ukraine. We also have them from Kosovo, Serbia in 1999. Some Serbs, while alive, were slowly harvested for their organs one at a time in Kosovo/Albania and Carla del Ponte, the chief prosecutor of the international court, reminded us. She was not powerful enough to link Bernard Kouchner, a French doctor of Jewish descent with power in Kosovo, to this atrocity. NATO was never charged for its first ever attack war, first ever, and the death of many civilians, including refugees. Carla did not have the power to procecute NATO, though she tried. The reason was Yugoslavia at that time was not the same country that had earlier signed the UN declaration The court dropped the case for formal reasons. Lawyers in London and Washington knew that would happen before NATO attacked.
That said, I dare not say organ trading is a Jewish idea. What do I know? I guess some Ukrainian military officers got rich sending organs to Germany.
Anonymous at 27 September, 2014 22:06
whats the source for Gaddafi’s speech.
Russia should have a Foreign Minister who can speak English well (and does not have to be translated by a female translator, when the minister is male, this only confuses. It would help bringing their message to the Anglo audience. Poroshenko’s message to the US Congress was heard better in the Anglosphere because he speaks English (even if not so fluent). Another example is the Dutch FM who got lots of attention even though his story contained several falsehoods because he could speak some not so bad English.
Excellent Mr. Saker. Thank you for all the good work. Your best yet.
It is satisfying you addressed the penchant of those calling on Mr.Putin to be the world’s policeman. Why should he? The insolvent AZs hog that role.
Historians will record; Ukraine is where the USD and NATO went to die. Ukraine was the AZs’ Waterloo. They thought Mr. Putin was in their crosshairs but their failure to secure one of their main asset, Crimea, led to retreat.
Sanctions was a save my face and that too failed immeasurably.
The more punitive sanctions are announced, then quietly exempted. Case in point (a) Pentagon needs Russia’s R180 engines to launch their military satellites (b) energy sector exempted; (c) and funding restricted to 30 days. What a joke – at maturity, there is the term that is invoked “roll it over for another 30 days, ad infinitum.
The unintended consequences and Costs of US-EU Sanctions on Russia:
Two points listed by Mr. Saker:
• Sanctions have hastened de-dollarization.
• Ukraine debacle followed by Sanctions became Washington’s Worst Nightmare: FWIW a good read Part(s) l and ll
o Washington’s Nightmare Comes True: The Russia-Chinese Strategic Partnership (RCSP) Goes Global
o From Part ll
o [E]ach hand of the RCSP is intended to wash the other and complement its counterpart in regions/states where it may be at a relative disadvantage vis-à-vis its partner, with the end-game intent of establishing true global multipolarity.
o Russia is the Balancer and China is the Gateway. The further that one moves from these two, for example, to the Mideast and Latin America, the more they can see the pure multipolar objectives and close coordination between these states; likewise, the closer they get to these two Eurasian cores, the more complex the relationship appears and the more difficult it may be to understand.
o With this always in mind, the RCSP is more easily grasped and its multipolar ambitions become more readily apparent. Returning back to the beginning of this composition where the detractors and distracters were mentioned, it is now shown that the distracters have been using smoke and mirrors to hide the obvious – the RCSP is a very real and tangible force all throughout the world. The detractors, on their end, were wrong when they alleged that this partnership is aggressive. It surely is challenging the Washington Consensus, but it is doing so through peaceful and political means, largely through the hand-in-hand approach of Russia’s military-diplomatic contacts and political balancing and China’s economic gateway role. Thus, it is indisputable that in the 21st century, the RCSP will continue to be the most dynamic partnership in constructing multipolarity all across the world and pushing back against the US’ desperate attempts to preserve its unipolar anachronism.
= = = = = =
Russia will prevail. US-led NATO and her EU vassals are embalmed. The funeral pyre awaits.
If I were Mr. Putin, I would continue with building Russia. Look east, south east, Central- South America and Africa towards the main objective, the demise of the AZ Wimpire. The rest of the world is sick of the bullying. Amen.
I do hope the French Saker will translate this from A to Z, even at the cost of moving their beloved and omnipresent M. Baquiast to the sidelines for a minute or two.
Funny coincidence : I’m just reading a book where it appears that Montaigne felt frustrated and irritated that King Henri IV did not energetically and immediately confront both the catholic “Ligue” and the Protestants. It seems he could not understand why he (the future King) did not at once militarily smash their heads against one another, seize the crown and put the realm at peace.
One marvels at the way history keeps stuttering.
All the best and keep the good work. We need you.
Excellent writing thank you Saker.
Seems to me only systemic divine interventions will ameliorate our systemic world crisis…
@ Larchmonter445 27 September 18:49
1. “Their newest ally is Exxon-Mobil. Sanctions are an obstacle.
Regime change happened in the US over SE Asia/South China Sea oil in 1963. Exxon-Mobil will not be frozen out of this arctic oil development.”
2. “Exxon-Mobil is a Texas corporation.”
Setting the record on the ExxonMobil Rosneft partnership.
Sanctions are not an obstacle or else Janet and Mario will need to print 24/7 into infinity to prop up the banks. That huge pile of petro dollars from the energy sector is their free cash flow.
1. ExxonMobil was formerly a Texas Corporation. The Texas Corporation is for U.S. operations.
ExxonMobil is incorporated under the laws of several countries – Canada, and Russia are examples.
The CEO, former and present, do not consider their company a U.S. Corporation. Decisions are not made on what is good for the U.S.
This link shows the interlocking of ExxonMobil-Rosneft partnership
The ExxonMobil Russia-Rosneft Partnership vs. Obama’s Sanctions Regime against Russia?
Why ExxonMobil’s Partnerships With Russia’s Rosneft Challenge the Narrative of U.S. Exports As Energy Weapon
• In 2012, ExxonMobil and Rosneft signed an agreement “to share technology and expertise” with one another. Some of the details:
• -Forming of a joint venture to explore offshore oil and gas in the Kara Sea and the Black Sea
• -Rosneft acquiring a 30 percent stake in 20 ExxonMobil-owned offshore oil and gas blocks in the Gulf of Mexico.
• “The 20 blocks have a total area of approximately 111,600 acres (450 square kilometers) in water depths ranging between 2,100 and 6,800 feet (640 and 2,070 meters),” explained a Rosneft press release.
• [S]taff will be located with the Rosneft and ExxonMobil joint venture teams in Moscow to promote resource efficiency and interaction between technical and management staffs,” explained a press release. “The [Arctic Research Center] initially will be staffed with experts from ExxonMobil and Rosneft.”
• Also part of the 2013 deal, ExxonMobil gave Rosneft a 25 percent stake in Alaska’s Point Thomson natural gas field. Further, the two companies signed a Memorandum of Understanding to study the possibility of jointly building a LNG (liquefied natural gas) facility in the Russia’s far east.
• Then at the end of 2013, ExxonMobil and Rosneft inked a deal to start a pilot project for tight oil reserves development in Western Siberia’s shale basins. Rosneft owns a 51 percent stake, ExxonMobil a 49 percent stake.
• Tillerson recently said the ongoing events in Crimea and Ukraine at-large will have no expected impact on his company’s partnerships with Rosneft.
• “There has been no impact on any of our plans or activities at this point, nor would I expect there to be any, barring governments taking steps that are beyond our control,” he said at the company’s recent annual meeting, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. “We don’t see any new challenges out of the current situation.”
“Not a U.S. Company”
ExxonMobil is considered a Private Empire.
read the book -” Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power”
= = = = = =
If you cannot fight for your own enthinic population after giving them assurances, then you are rightly though of light weaight and bullies will be encuraged to push the envelope to harm as till you stop
With regard to China and Ukraine (and Saker’s analysis) Putin is also constrained to acting in ways that do not complicate China’s international position vis-a-vis the US and Europe.
It is China that is restraining Russia on all fronts.
Until the alternative global system is well developed, Putin can only play along.
Russia cannot win this war with just top down political strategy. It must also cultivate a bottom up anti-imperial rebellion.
This is already happening. The build up is slow.