PUTIN-BIDEN: THERE ARE THINGS THAT RUSSIA WILL NOT TOLERATE
Translated from Russian into English by Lilia Shumkova
GEOFOR: Dear Mr. Raevsky, I recall how after the Geneva meeting with President Vladimir Putin, his American colleague President Joe Biden, in response to a question about the continuation of high-level contacts between our countries, said that we should wait until the end of the year, and after that time make an appropriate decision. And now, six months after Geneva, a new dialogue, albeit in a video format. Moreover, this time the initiator was the American side. What do you think this means? What did the White House want to achieve, and to what extent did it succeed?
Raevsky: Under Biden, the United States turned to Russia five times with a request for negotiations – three times by phone, once in person and now via a video conference. Why did they need it? Here, you just need to look at the general context from the point of view of the United States and Biden himself. He has several “fronts,” not only the problem of Russia and Ukraine. I would even say that this is not the main “front” for him. There are two main ones. First of all, there is an internal “front”: he has a very low rating; The social, economic, and political crisis in the United States is now total and, in many ways, resembles the Soviet Union in the 1980s. American armed forces have already proved many times their total inability to conduct combat operations and achieve anything with them. Iraq is a disaster. They are afraid of Iran and do not even want to compete with it. You have seen the disgrace in Afghanistan. Now the mood is very depressed and angry. This internal “front” of President Biden is undoubtedly the most dangerous.
The second very dangerous “front” he has is the issue of China. The Americans say that in two years they will no longer be able to gain the upper hand in the war against China; something needs to be done urgently.
People who understand the principles and timing of the reform of the armed forces and the development of new weapons systems, the principles of tactics and military art in general, understand that nothing can be done in two years. It takes a decade, and maybe more than one.
China and the United States are moving towards a confrontation. Beijing definitely occupies the position of the stronger player. And the Americans are weak on all fronts.
Then they have the Middle East, where Iran is now, in fact, ruling the ball. Israel is trying to maintain the appearance that it is very strong and very dangerous, but in reality the United States is now losing the entire Middle East.
This was an open goal of the Iranians. This is a country that is an order of magnitude smaller or weaker than Russia or China, now – in general, successfully – expels the United States from the Middle East, or at least from many parts of the Middle East.
And, of course, another “front” is Ukraine and Russia plus Europe. And in Europe – and this needs to be pointed out – there is an economic crisis.
For all these reasons, Biden was in an extremely difficult situation.
Russia has been retreating on all fronts over the past 20 – if not 30 – years. And now the situation resembles the one when German tanks were near Moscow. The time is now to say, “Not a step further.”
I think that [Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Valery] Gerasimov and Putin conveyed exactly this to the Americans: “Say what you want, we will not practice the same belligerent rhetoric. But in reality we have the means to repel any provocation or strike from you, and we will have to do it if you don’t change course.”
I think that the realization of how dangerous the situation is today has reached the “collective Biden.”
Now about whether he achieved what he wanted in this video conference.
Sure. To some extent, yes. Because he will be able to say that it was he who stopped Russia in Ukraine, that it was he who stopped China, and no attack on Taiwan happened on his watch.
But this, of course, is fiction. Everyone understands perfectly well that neither China nor Russia need these wars. All these fears were fanned by the Americans themselves.
And, that’s where they really scared themselves, which was the right thing to do, because they are absolutely not tough enough to “butt heads” with Iran, China, and Russia at the same time.
But there is a certain specificity of American politics in this. Very often, American diplomats come to Moscow and say one thing, then when they come back, they are attacked by the media and Congress. Both the media and the Congress are totally in the hands of the “War Party” here. Accusations of weakness, softness, cowardice, etc. follow and here they need to show their “coolness”.
So, for example, Trump acted when he negotiated with the Russian side, and then declared: “There were no agreements.”
Therefore, it remains to be seen whether Biden will be able to withstand the onslaught of the “War Party” now. If he can do it, say, in the next 2-3 weeks, then I would say that for him this conversation was a clear and undoubted success.
And if the “War Party” breaks it, as Trump was very quickly broken, then everything will return to normal, and we will return to the same threshold where Russia and the United States will be on the verge of a full-scale war. This, in general, is not necessary for anyone, and maybe it has come to the American side that it is one thing to talk about world domination, to fight with weak incapacitated forces. And it’s quite another thing to wage war against a real military superpower.
GEOFOR: The meeting was preceded by a strong propaganda attack against Russia, during which Washington clearly tried to “raise the stakes.” President Biden even said that he does not see and does not accept any “red lines” outlined by Moscow. And yet, just before the meeting, Congress lifted a number of sanctions against Russia from the defense budget, including on the Nord Stream-2. Clearly under the influence of the administration. How do you explain such a metamorphosis?
Raevsky: Of course, firstly, it was necessary to “raise the stakes” in order not only, as they like to say in the West, “to negotiate from a position of strength,” but also to convince both public opinion and the “War Party” that we are in no way making concessions to Russia. And Biden said: “We will not recognize any red lines!” [NATO Secretary General] Stoltenberg said: “We do what we want and Russia does not order us!” and so on.
It’s all PR.
In reality – the fact that they have already asked for negotiations with Russia for the fifth time shows who is in a position of strength, and who is not.
And this lifting of the sanctions you are talking about from the defense budget is, in general, a small step, rather, a diplomatic step of goodwill. But, in fact, the issue with the Nord Stream-2 has already been resolved. The only thing that can close it is a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine – or something worse. They have already sanctioned Russia so that there is nowhere else to go – they say it themselves.
So, if you no longer have the opportunity to impose other sanctions, then you can “sell” this “non-imposition” of sanctions as a gesture of goodwill.
This is Realpolitik, and nothing more.
The Americans have never abandoned their strategic goals – containing and encircling Russia, forcing it to submissive obedience and surrender of its sovereignty, and this is their ultimate goal which the Americans have never agreed to abandon.
This is a strategic goal. And everything that is being done now, for Americans, is the level of tactics, not strategy.
They have not discussed the strategy yet, because to revise the strategy means to revise the entire ideology on which this country is built. They are not ready for this yet.
GEOFOR: Could Putin’s visit to Delhi have influenced the position of the American side, and if so, what kind? Recall that during this bilateral meeting with the Indian leadership, a number of documents were signed, including an agreement on military issues until 2030. Moreover, this document concerns not only military-technical cooperation.
Raevsky: Here you need to understand a very subtle game that the Indians are playing. They are friends with the United States, they will even go to this Summit of Democracies. But they are friends not against Russia, but against China, which for them is a regional enemy.
But in order to emphasize how friendly they are with the United States not against Russia, Putin’s trip to India was organized and giant contracts were signed there, including contracts for weapons, including S-400 air defense, which the Americans categorically forbade Indians to buy, and the Indians did not care about this ban.
In fact, India’s attitude towards Russia is a slap in the face of the United States. This shows that the Indians will look very selectively at what is beneficial to them and act in their own interests, and not be a submissive puppet in the hands of anyone, and certainly not the United States.
I would also like to add that, in my opinion, the confrontation between China and India is the main current problem of the Eurasian continent. I see only one side that can help these two countries to change relations and switch to a different quality. This is, of course, Russia.
And the strategic task of the Americans, on the contrary, is to incite further conflicts between China and India at any cost.
And it is clear that the parties will continue to bend their own line. Moscow stands for peace in Eurasia, and the United States – if not for war, then, in any case, for military tension and confrontation between these two great countries.
GEOFOR: One of the main priorities of Moscow in these negotiations was the issue of ensuring the security of the Russian Federation, which was stated long before the meeting. As it became known, the American side confirmed its readiness for dialogue on this issue. In particular, to discuss the issue of the deployment of offensive weapons along the Russian borders from Norway to Romania and possibly Turkey. This also automatically includes Ukraine. How does this relate to the belligerent and harsh statements on the eve of the meeting?
Raevsky: Officially, right before the meeting, the Americans said that they categorically refuse to recognize Moscow’s red lines. Stoltenberg also said that “Russia is not a law for us, let it behave correctly and keep quiet, and we will do whatever we want.”
But in reality, expert groups will meet. And what will they discuss? Yes, of course, just these red lines. This is the only subject of real bargaining that is possible between these two countries.
So, in fact, the United States says one thing and does another.
Yes, they are now making concessions to Moscow. The growing power of the Russian Armed Forces, and the forces of the Russian economy and political “soft power” forced the Americans to make concessions.
From the Americans’ point of view, Ukraine itself in its current state is a “404 country”, and I would say, in general, the whole of Europe turned out to be such a “suitcase without a handle.” And Americans are no longer able to drag around with them – neither economically nor politically.
So what can they do? If it has already been decided to leave the suitcase without a handle, then you can set it on fire and hope that this arson can achieve something.
And what to achieve? Yes, it’s very simple – the dream of Americans is for Russia to really grab as much Ukraine as possible. First, because this is a “black hole” that would become a headache for Russia, not America. Second, it will create ideal conditions to block the Nord Stream-2 and even other energy projects between Europe and Russia. And, third, it will create – finally! – the next “cold war,” without which the American and, in general, western politicians and generals are so sad.
Everyone understands that in the event of a war, Russia will win quickly and convincingly. But after that, a situation will arise that will resemble, perhaps, the “Berlin crisis” with a similar level of confrontation. And the “War Party” in the West wants this for a number of reasons.
For example, if the supply of energy carriers from Russia is cut off, then whose fuel and energy sector will be able to compensate for the outgoing resources? American, of course. Their liquefied gas.
The same is true in the sphere of political influence. If, say, an open war happens, and Russia liberates even just a part of Ukraine from Nazi rule, it will be presented as proof that only NATO can save Europe from Putin’s “mordor”.
It would be very beneficial for the Americans to have a full-scale war unleashed. This is the interpretation of the “War Party”. But there are other people – sane people – who understand that such a situation is fraught with a very rapid escalation and direct confrontation between the United States and Russia. And they don’t want that.
And so, on the one hand, we are seeing “cool” statements. On the other hand, there are a number of concessions that the Americans are ready to make so far.
And the offensive weapons systems that they have now deployed in other countries is a purely political, not military, issue. When Putin says that for a Western hypersonic missile from the territory of Ukraine, the approach time will be five minutes to Moscow, this is a fact. But, on the other hand, the time of approach of a preemptive strike by Russian hypersonic weapons will also, by definition, be five minutes. And in this area, Russia has overtaken the United States for a long time and very significantly. Russia also has the opportunity to place missiles in the Atlantic Ocean outside the zone of operation of possible anti-submarine means of the United States and “swoop” from there.
These offensive systems are dangerous for Russia not so much from a military point of view as from a political one, since this is really a political provocation. It shows what, as Americans like to say, “they send a message”.
This is the message: “We don’t care about you! We do what we want and where we want.” This means that Russia is not an equal party to the negotiations, that there is a great Hegemon and Suzerain of the whole planet, who does everything he wants and how he wants, and Russia is invited to shut up, sit quietly, and not slack off.
This political problem is very real for Russia. Therefore, the current situation will force Russia at some point to draw red lines and say that there are things that we will not tolerate.
Obviously, both Putin and General Gerasimov have very successfully brought these realities to the consciousness of the “collective Biden.”
GEOFOR: The information that comes to us after the meeting suggests that the tone of the conversation between the Russian and American presidents is similar to the tone of Biden’s remote talks with Comrade Xi, which also took place recently. For example, during a conversation with the Chinese leader, the US president stressed the need to refrain from seizing Taiwan by force, which essentially meant that Washington did not object to economic and political methods. As for the Russian-American negotiations, in part of Ukraine, for example, issues related to its territorial integrity, Crimea and the notorious “Russian aggression” were not discussed at all. And at the briefing following the conversation, Assistant to the President J. Sullivan called on Kiev to stop the escalation of tensions in the Donbas and referred the Ukrainian leadership to the Minsk agreements. What is the reason for this position: the desire to maintain the status quo for a while? Then – for what purpose and for how long?
Raevsky: In this area, the situation can be said to have turned completely upside down.
Russia needed these decades of concessions in order to strengthen the Russian society itself, strengthen the information sphere, the Russian economy, establish import substitution, create new ties with other countries and, most importantly, to develop the Armed Forces to such a level that they can cope with any threat to Russia.
The Americans’ situation is flipped. They have the deepest internal crisis – political and economic. The state of the American armed forces is very fraught.
Of course, the current status quo is beneficial to them. The alternative is to continue on the path of escalation, and then there is only one way – to military confrontation. There’s nothing else left. Everything below the level of military confrontation has already been done. And it is completely unprofitable for them to go to an open military confrontation with Russia.
For how long is such a status quo beneficial to them? It is necessary to clearly distinguish two sides. On the military side, the reform of the armed forces is a very long and difficult process, very complex, and the armed forces have a huge inertia, which is very difficult to deploy in another direction, considering that the American political calendar is two years ahead; one year ahead, well, four years ahead at most.
On the political side, Biden’s rating is now catastrophically low. The situation inside the country is very bad. Therefore, it is more profitable for him to maintain the status quo for a year or two rather than to have a direct confrontation with Russia during his presidency. Plus, it is still unknown what benefits the Chinese and Iranians could find for themselves in such a confrontation.
Thus, Americans need the status quo. On the political side, two years, even one year, is much better than a war.
In the long run, the current status quo, I think, is just a screen put up to hide the fact that they will continue to self-destruct. In my opinion – and I know this country quite well – it is absolutely impossible to rebuild it. Reforms are impossible here, because this country is based on imperialism, on the ideology of world domination, and it is simply impossible for it to abandon this. Speaking “in American language,” “it’s not American.” That is, to recognize, for example, just the possibility that the United States is “one of the countries of the world”, but not “the leader of all mankind”, is something that is literally unthinkable for most Americans, and certainly for American politicians. For them, this is simply unacceptable.
The whole “crazy kindergarten” – there is no other way to say it – that we hear now from a local congressman about Russia, about China, about others, is a reflection of this type of thinking and worldview.
Unfortunately, in the United States, being an open supporter of the “War Party” looks patriotic. And since this country did not have any real war in defense of its homeland, and they lost all the other wars after World War II, this is a country that simply cannot abandon its imperial ideology, and now it lacks the tools that it needs to impose its imperialist ideology on the entire planet.
Therefore, realistically speaking, they need the status quo for as long as possible. But it is impossible to define this “longer”.” There are too many variables, too many scenarios.
GEOFOR: About protocol problems in relations with the White House. In preparation for the meeting, it was widely announced that the conversation would be “one-on-one.” And now we see President Biden negotiating surrounded by four of his advisers. Does such a transformation of the format of the meeting contribute to the establishment of an atmosphere of trust in negotiations and, more broadly, in bilateral relations in general?
Raevsky: First of all, you need to understand that when it comes to Biden, of course, we are talking about “collective Biden.” Biden himself is not able to delve into all the problems facing him, nor to negotiate. And, certainly, not with a man like Putin, who can talk for four hours without a piece of paper and remember all the numbers on all topics.
Naturally, there should be advisers around him; there is nothing new here.
When George Bush’s son was interrogated about the events of September 11 , he was not trusted to answer questions alone. Dick Cheney was sitting next to him, who had to make sure, as the “senior supervisor,” that Bush would not blurt out anything superfluous. It’s the same here.
These advisers surround him, naturally, to advise, but also to keep an eye on him. They are the watchers, and he is their official representative.
Moreover, I would even say that this is a very good sign – just as I welcomed the trip of Victoria Nuland and the CIA director to Moscow. This shows that “serious people” are talking to the Russian side. Now if they sent Kamala Harris to talk to someone, that would be a sign of total disregard. Or, say, how Blinken calls Zelensky to tell him what happened at the negotiations.
There is no such contempt here. On the contrary, there are serious people who know what they are talking about and who are able to make decisions. This shows that the negotiations were not symbolic and that there really was a shift. In my opinion, this can only be welcomed.
But! There can be no question of any atmosphere of trust. This is what journalists think: there is an atmosphere of trust in the negotiations between Russia and the United States.
Such negotiations only develop confidence-building measures – those that are verifiable.
There can be no question of any trust.
Most likely, in general terms, the parties agreed to some steps, and expert groups will work on specifics – who, how and when will check the measures mutually agreed during the negotiations.
Here we can recall President Ronald Reagan, who said: “Trust, but verify”.
This is exactly what we are seeing now: both sides will check to the maximum, because the stakes are very high. When there is a risk of military confrontation between two nuclear superpowers, there can be no trust. There can only be absolutely verifiable mutually obligatory steps of the two sides.
GEOFOR: And now a few words about the affairs of Washington. The further away, the more noticeable the discord in the White House foreign policy team. If the aggravation of the situation in bilateral relations, harsh criticism of Russia, etc. comes from the Secretary of State and his team, then a certain constructive approach comes from the national security assistant. This became especially noticeable after Mrs. Nuland, whose work results apparently did not satisfy the White House much, an experienced diplomat, a former ambassador to Russia, and now the director of the CIA, William J. Burns, whom a number of Russian analysts write down in the “Sullivan team,” arrived in Moscow. Will President Biden be able to continue to stay above the fray of his closest aides? How subjective is he in making and implementing his political decisions? After all, it is still impossible to ignore the opinions of both parties on Capitol Hill… In short, how much can Russia trust the agreements that were reached during the dialogue at the highest level? Will the decisions on joint study of issues of interest to both sides go beyond expert consultations and translate into concrete binding agreements? Or is it still an attempt to get a respite in time in order to settle their internal problems, reformat relations with allies, and then return to the period of confrontation?
Raevsky: There are undoubtedly two parties here. There is a very serious struggle going on within the ruling classes of the United States and in the so-called “deep state.”
Imagine some kind of gangster group – one of those organized criminal groups, each of which controls some part of the city. As long as things are going well, they sit quietly. But as soon as the crisis begins, then they start fighting among themselves.
And so the election of Trump four years ago brought such a split in the ruling American elites that now a very strong battle is going on at the top in different groups, clans of the American government. And the divide is not between Republicans and Democrats. Relatively speaking, on the one hand there is a “War Party,” and on the other hand there is a “Peace Party.” This is very conditional, but not wrong.
First, the “War Party” members are pure ideologists. Second, it is the fuel and energy sector of America, which is very interested in “cutting off” Europe from Russia. It would be very beneficial for the American economy as a whole if Europe were both weaker and more dependent on the United States. Any cooperation between Russia and the EU is a direct and clear threat to the economic and political interests of the United States. There are still those who retain nostalgia for the Cold War. There are so-called “Neocons,” there are “Neoliberals,” and there are various lobbies that are hostile to Russia for various reasons. The Israeli lobby, the Polish lobby, the Ukrainian lobby. All of these groups lumped together can be called the “War Party”.
And there is a “Peace Party”, which, I think, consists of those people who understand that, going further along this path, you can only come to one point – war. This party does not want to pay such a price. This party probably understands that it is simply too much for the United States to go into a total confrontation with Russia, Iran and China at the same time.
Even if they wanted war, they realize that in this position it is better for them to present themselves as a “Peace Party”.
This is probably what Biden wants to achieve. He wants to demonstrate that with his “coolness” and disregard for any demands of Russia and China, he has succeeded, stopped both “Russian aggression” against Ukraine and “Chinese aggression” against Taiwan.
That there is absolutely no reality under this rhetoric, it does not matter at all. This is all for domestic consumption and for domestic policy. And also to preserve the image of the World Hegemon, which, unfortunately, it is absolutely impossible for Americans to abandon, since this ideology is “embedded” in the national identity of many – if not all – Americans. In addition, all politicians, in order to show that they are patriots, must be supporters of the “War Party,” supporters of wars and “cool” unilateral measures. In this country – alas! – this is interpreted not as a sign of insanity or irresponsibility, but as a sign of “coolness”. And if the president demonstrates these qualities, then he is a strong and serious president.
How to reform such a country and give it the opportunity to become just a normal country, and not an Empire, I can’t imagine. I don’t see how this system can be reformed. The only way out, which I unfortunately see, is that it should collapse. Collapse either quickly during a military confrontation, or – God forbid! – through some kind of agreement to “hit the brakes.” This is the best we can all hope for.
GEOFOR: So, how do you see the future of relations between Moscow and Washington?
Raevsky: First of all, I have always believed and written that for at least seven years – if not more – the American Empire and Russia have been at war. This is an ideological war, this is an informational war, a political war, and an economic war. And-thank God! – there have not been any major military actions yet.
But this does not negate the fact that, in fact, there can be only one winner in this war.
Russia, Iran, China and other countries want a multipolar world in which there would be a place for sovereign states that treat each other with respect and in accordance with the principles of international law.
The American vision of the future is world hegemony, “the USA is ahead of the whole planet,” the USA governs everything and everyone, and there are no equals.
This is a very important point – “We have no equal.” It’s an idea that generations of Americans have been raised on.
But suddenly [Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff] General Milley said that, in general, from a military point of view, the world already has at least three poles – the United States, Russia and China. There are actually more of these poles. For example, in the Middle East, the strongest regional power is no longer Israel – it is Iran.
The situation is changing, and not to the benefit of the United States.
Russia plays for a long time. She has been yielding, stepping aside, and giving way for a long time, because it was necessary to create such Armed Forces that could really guarantee the security of Russia in any threats. Russia has finally achieved this.
For Russia, the idea of Anglo–Saxon domination over the planet, when everyone else should serve them, is fundamentally unacceptable – and I would even say civilizationally. Russia sees herself to be an equal player among the great of this world.
What will be the relations between Moscow and Washington? One side will lose the war, and the other will gain the upper hand in it.
Not necessarily, by the way, a war with military operations. This could be a purely political war only, God willing!
But only one of the two boxers in the ring will remain standing. The second one will have to accept a real defeat.
For Russia, such a defeat would mean the loss of sovereignty and destabilization. Which will once again put her in a dangerous position.
And for the United States, simply giving up world domination is already a total defeat, because it will force this country to completely reformat itself and recreate itself on a new basis. Which they are absolutely not capable of, at the moment. In order to reform the country, it takes decades – if there is no external force. And since Russian tanks will not appear on the streets of Washington, no purge like the one that was against the Nazis after World War II in Germany, here – alas! – it won’t happen.
It means that all this will take a long time, and this process will not only be long, but also dangerous for this country.
Andrei Raevsky was born in Zurich, Switzerland, his father is Dutch, his mother is Russian from a family of White Russian immigrants.
In 1984, he entered active military service in the electronic warfare unit, and then was transferred to the military intelligence service as a language specialist, to work in the interests of the Swiss Air Force. Then he moved to the USA, where he received a bachelor’s degree in International Relations from the School of International Service (SIS) American University (American University) and a Master’s degree in Strategic Studies (Strategic Studies) at the School of Advanced International Studies. Paul N. Nitze of Johns Hopkins University (Paul H. Nitze School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University). Upon returning to Switzerland, he worked as a civilian consultant (in a position corresponding to the military rank of “major”) in the Swiss Strategic Intelligence Service (SND), preparing strategic analytical materials, primarily about the Soviet/Russian armed forces. He worked as a specialist in “enemy operations” (“Red Team” in American military jargon) to train personnel at the operational level of the General Staff of the Swiss Armed Forces. Later he worked at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), where he specialized in peacekeeping tactics and operations. He wrote a book about psychological and intelligence operations in peacekeeping and four books of collected works “The Essential Saker” (The Essential Saker). Speaks Russian, English, French, Spanish and German.
Raevsky holds a Licentiate in Orthodox Theological Studies (PhD in Orthodox Theology) from the Center for Traditionalist Orthodox Studies at the Monastery of St. Gregory Palamas in Etna, California (the “Center for Traditionalist Orthodox Studies” (CTOS) at the Saint Gregory Palamas monastery in Etna, California).
Lives in the state of Florida.
The questions were asked by Sergey Dukhanov, an international journalist and an Americanist. He worked as his own correspondent for the NOVOSTI Press Agency in Canada (Ottawa, 1990-1992) and as the chief of the American Bureau (Washington, 1996-2001) of the newspapers Business MN, Delovoy Mir and Interfax-AiF.
So what exactly is the brain-trust of the Biden Administration?
Well now, I reckon that the brain-trust of the Biden Administration are the shit-stains in Joe Biden’s blue suits. So what Nation will no longer exist in a few years?
Both factions in the US that you identified in your interview are on the same team on one issue:‘the demographic elimination of the Native Born White American Working Class. And they are using force and state violence to do this. The DC jail that holds the Native White Working Class Jan 6 Protesters….simple people who walked into a Federal Building to take selfies….are held in solitary confinement by a sadistic Lesbian Prison Warden who has repeatedly tweeted her genocidal intent towards Native Born White Working Class Americans…
To sum up:The effectively nonwhite Democratic Party is waging a genocidal war against Native Slavic Russia-the core demographic population of Russia-and the Historic Native Born White American Historic Majority.
Slavic Russia can defend itself against the Democratic Party…..The Historic Native White American Working Class Population can not defend itself against the Democratic Party.
What have written above is the fundamental core issue in 2021 and beyond…
It’s clarifying to see the different Russian and American interests with respect to the China-India relationship, stated so simply.
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
Raevsky for some wildly strange reason is convinced that the Biden family is NOT in the War Party. Senator Joseph Biden was ALWAYS part of the War Party. Raevsky claims to know America very well, but he doesn’t even understand which faction is in charge when it’s staring him right in the face. The Biden administration has never ceased arming Kiev and turning the Ukraine into a powder keg right in Russia’s front yard!
I’ll never understand why Russian expats and people from formerly communist countries in general have a soft spot in their heart for American Democrats. The idea that the American Democrats are the reasonable party is just magical and wishful thinking, and this wishful thinking will lead to serious disasters.
wildly strange reason
It is called analysis of facts, their implications and possible consequences
look it up, it yields amazing results for those capable thereof…
Also, most Russian expats are GOP
Which just goes to show the depth of your ignorance…
Don’t look now, but this petulant hall-monitor thing will ruin your blog. Better to just shut off comments except for Larchmonter, Katerina, Amarynth and the old guy in Crim whose name slips my mind at the moment.
to your last “auslander” … mod
I’m suitably crushed. How can anyone forget my name? And I’m not ‘old’, I’m only 75 and I don’t look a day older than 73!! Just for that you get the full package:
Never The Last One, paper back edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1521849056 Never the Last One: a Novel of Spetznaz, opens your eyes to the Russian world not described in American news or fiction.
An Incident On Simonka paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1696160715 NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
I’m duly embarrassed, friend. Never thought they’d run that comment. But you definitely belong on the commenters’ podium, Auslander. For sure.
Add Serbian Girl to that last list
In a perverse sort of way, I would like to see a military confrontation with Russian troops by the woke, feminized, lgbtq, non racist, non white supremacist, U,$ military. I just don’t think that they realize that Russia is a society that has undured hardships that the woke U$ military can not even begin to comprehend. If such a confrontation happens, Russia needs to slam the U$ face in the dirt, swiftly and decisively. If it drags on for 10 or 29 years, like Viet Nam or Afghanistan the U$ will learn nothing.
These are the children of the hypocritical megalomaniacal agressive male and passive-aggressive female Loud Generation / Baby Boomer generation Fox Hasbara and Fox Plunderbund consumers who are Catholics or their Protesters that had bought the Ukranazi propaganda as far back as the early ’70s and now showing their true colors. To me, it is no wonder so many of them truly believe they would be better off as members of the opposite sex, even to the point of drastic actions such as hormonal “therapy” and surgery.
If the millitary of Windoze for MaleBovineManureJobsGroups 3.11 (which is running in Exceptionalist Mode) is “woke, feminized, lgbtq, non racist, non white supremacist” as you say (like there is anything wrong with the last two items), perhaps it is a poetic irony that might save us from a Nuclear Winter.
Seems as though when what comes around finally makes its way back around, it hits two or three generations later/too late, such as obese grandchildren of someone who went through a famine. I cannot help but think my paralyzing fear of a Greater Depression in the ’90s was due to what my grandparents (born 1901 and 1903) experienced in the 1930s. Their first house AFAIK they had built in 1940 when they were in their late 30s. Turns out my timing and magnitude was off in that we are getting much worse much later.
Moscow handed US diplomats a pair of detailed security proposals for security between Russia, the US and NATO on 15 December, with the details of the proposed agreements published on the Foreign Ministry’s website on Friday. US and NATO officials have confirmed that they are studying the documents.
Russia will be forced to take measures to create a system of counterthreats if the US and NATO reject Moscow’s security proposals, deputy foreign minister Alexander Grushko has warned.
“We have made clear that we are prepared to discuss ways to shift a military scenario or a military-technical scenario into a political process that will actually strengthen the military security of all states within the OSCE, the Euroatlantic and Eurasian space. And if this doesn’t work out, we have already made clear to [NATO] that we will switch to the mode of creating counter-threats. But then it will be too late to ask why we have made such decisions, why we have deployed such systems,” the diplomat said, speaking to Russian media on Saturday…….”
Thanks for your candid perspective. Vladimir Putin has up the ante with a proposal for the U$A & NATO, and a force posture! The Empire’s threats have calmed. It will be interesting to see Empire’s response in the coming week.
Russia has escalated and not deescalated under threats from the Empire. Its stratagem is well thought-out and has moved its forces whose strength makes it capable of following through on the challenge and has retained the element of surprise. It has made its proposal public, so the world sees Russia’s position and doesn’t blame them. In summary, Russia wants serious negotiations immediately. The Empire is caught off guard and its deterrence has failed. The Russian force posture demand the situation to be resolved in the coming months not years. A great move!
The Empire has to act in good faith immediately and resolve in a few months. If Russia doesn’t get positive signals, it will move to check the Empire. Ukraine’s key moment has arrived! The Empire is playing its usual trick to ask for more time so it can move its pawns and challenge back. U$A’s diplomacy has been clumsy so far. Don’t think Vladimir Putin will let it drive the timeline or deescalate without achieving his goals as they’re public.
Russian demands and force posture shows it is serious and wants success. They won’t backdown without achieving their goals. Maybe China and Russia will end the dollar’s dominance in 2022?
Utterly brilliant! Thank you so much for publishing this. I hope this gets much wider audience. This interview eased my angst about current events, so my personal thanks to you Andrei,
Most holy Theotokos save us !
Excellent description of the power struggle in the US!
The US’ “Peace party” would have a much easier job if it were supported by Western Europe, ie if there was antiwar push-back from within NATO.
Alas, Europe has fallen..US Corporate interests now rule supreme in the EU: Oil & gas (sabotaging NS2) Pfizer, Moderna who have exclusivity over the vaccines available in Europe, even though Sinovac and Sputnik were offered to them at a much earlier date, (and probably much cheaper price).
Blackrock, a US hedge fund, was invited to reform pensions in France and draw up “ethical, environmental, and social” guidelines for the EU financial sector.
So let us hope the US “Peace party” prevails, because there is no-one else in the entire zombified West to keep the war-mongerers in check.
A most excellent interview Saker. I have to say, one of your best. Thank you very much.
I just saw this article posted in Novye Izvestia. Apparently the Federal Agency for Technical Regulation and Metrology has issued a new standard for urgent burials in peacetime and in wartime.
See: https://newizv.ru/article/general/13-12-2021/mogila-v-zakone-gosudarstvo-prinimaet-natsionalnyy-standart-po-massovym-zahoroneniyam .
So, does this mean the Kremlin is preparing the Russian people for the worst, given the high tensions between U.S.-NATO and the Russian Federation?
You used to talk about Financial issues and at one time said that if they don’t get Financial independence, they lose. I understand Russians are paying 8.5% interest rates while we are paying 2% or nothing. How can Russia win with 8.5% interest raters. Seems the British Rothschilds own the Russian banks and favor the US.
Last I heard, the average rate on credit cards in Country Winbloze for MaleBovineManureJobsGroups 3.11 running in Exceptionalist Mode was 17%. It is only the “Elite” (the scum of curdled milk that rose to the top) and their corporations that pay around 2-3%.
If they have mostly severed links with the abhorrent dollar, perhaps the words of FDR apply. Perhaps they “owe it to themselves.” The trick is to keep it from accumulating in oligarchical hands. Perhaps eventually they will make Putin’s day Dirty Harry Style and it will be like Tibet 1959 and he can finish the job he partially started.
I remember back when the Saker said that if Russia couldn’t solve their banking problem they would lose. Haven’t covered that angle lately, but in hybrid warfare, banking rates count. My mortgage on a 30 year is 3%+ a bit while inflation is 7% to 20% depending on what you are looking at. That is just f’ing weird in economic theory. So why do we get 3% while Russians are paying 8.5% on preferred loans? There is an economic war going on; look at Turkey. They upped the ante.
A great time to spend $20 trillion on infrastructure (even a zero rate of real return would be theoretically quite profitable). How about Personal Rapid Transit lines in every urbanized area and between them for starters, probably would be barely doable if our economy was really about the $23.19 trillion third quarter 2021 second guesstimate and not an easy 75% hot air from nonexistent “value” from the F.I.RE. sector (according to Michael Hudson, Max Keiser, and probably others) plus hedonic adjustments and all kinds of other buffoonish games (John Williams (*not* the New York Feral Reserve clown)).
Since 1) there is no spending on infrastructure and equipment/техника (see https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2021/12/22/putins-military-technical-measures-if-negotiations-fail/ regarding техника) having high up-front costs, but durability, low repair, maintenance, and operational costs despite severely negative interest rates, 2) the stock market has not crashed despite inflation that even every trick in the book and then some cannot hide, and 3) never-in-time inventory has gotten dramatically worse, there is a complete breakdown of every “scientific” “economic” “theory” and (mis)management practice I ever learned (and fortunately mostly forgot (probably)) in high school and college.
Most of this is not being reported by Western media, so here it goes:
1. Today, in reaction to American/NATO military moves in the Arctic, Russia formally closed the Northern Sea route. This means that all of Europe’s trading with China and the Far East will now have to go either overland or via the Suez, taking a lot more time and exacting a heavy financial burden on European companies as Egypt charges hefty mutli-million dollar fees for passage through the Suez. Given how the EU has treated NordStream2 (originally proposed by Angela Merkel and now declared “a geopolitical mistake” by the new German Vice Chancellor), and given the extremely hostile noises coming out of the new German government in the last week or so, it’s finally time for Europe itself to start paying for its own Russophobia in a way Europe, like the States, understands best.
2. Russia has NO military and no missiles anywhere close to the US or even to the EU.
3. The US has shipped about 1000 tanks, plus helicopters and military vehicles, to Greece in what is being described as “the largest shipment of US military equipment in history” [greekreporter.com], and has already moved them into Bulgaria, which is next door to Ukraine.
4. In response to these aggressive moves by the US/NATO, apart from closing the Northern Sea route, Russia has announced that it’s bringing two regiments of its YARS Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to COMBAT STATUS before the end of this year. That’s within the next 13 days. One regiment of YARS missiles is silo-based; the other is mobile.
5. In addition, Russia has also deployed radar and radio engineering battalions to the Arctic. It’s released an image of the new radar station it erected there in the last 36 hours. Apart from the radar to monitor ships trying to use the Northern Sea route, the installation includes RADAR JAMMING SYSTEMS for different radar bands. These systems have one purpose only: to jam the American over-the-horizon missile radar detection grids and degrade the effectiveness of American radar systems so that they won’t be able to identify an incoming ICBM until it’s too late. This, let me emphasize once again, is in response to NATO claims that it has every right to make Ukraine a part of its war-making machine — when was the last time NATO defended any North Atlantic country from anything at all? — and to US plans to place their missiles inside Ukraine, which would give NATO a 5-minute striking range on Moscow, and a 7-minute striking range on Saint Petersburg and other major Russian cities, *giving Russia no time to defend itself or even retaliate*.
All of this is taking place because the US and its EU puppets organized a coup in Kiev in 2013/14, putting a bunch on bona fide fascists in power there, and because they refuse to give up their dream of pulling Ukraine inside NATO. I cannot stress this enough: American missiles on its territory would give the US/NATO a FEASIBLE first-strike capacity. [US neocons are known for firmly believing that a nuclear war on Russia is winnable, even at the price of 20 or 50 million American lives.]
This is exactly what the US itself was facing during the Cuban Missile Crisis, when, in reaction to the American missiles in Turkey and Italy, the Soviets placed their medium range and intermediate range nuclear missiles in Cuba. Realizing that this meant Soviet missiles could reach Washington DC in 5 minutes, and other US cities in about 10 minutes, wiping out 80% of the US population in a first strike, Kennedy reacted forcefully and eventually negotiated an agreement with the Soviets to pull out American missiles from both Turkey and Italy in return for them removing their missiles from Cuba.
Sixty odd years later, we’re facing the same situation brought on by the US and EU neocons and their insatiable thirst for world-domination, for absolute planetary hegemony. And while the UN now officially welcomes a US-Russia dialogue, all of Moscow’s de-escalation proposals, hand delivered to various EU capitals as well as to Washington, have received no answer.
None of the Western media are reporting these details.
Well said War is coming.
I would add (that I am aware of) among additional significant military steps taken in last 2-3 days:
▪︎(source:) by Dec 31, **another** 2 Russian strategic missile regiments to go on combat alert
▪︎ Russia quit the Open Skies treaty on Dec 18. No overflights by NATO, adding to their terror.
▪︎ “India test-fires nuclear-capable ballistic missile” top story on RT yesterday.. And with whom is India really allied??? It may remain the fly in the ointment unfortunately, as by missile range the implicated targets are China and Pakistan.
▪︎ Yamal gaspipe to Germany (via Belarus & Poland) had lowest recorded flow rate in history yesterday. And crazed Germans promised to not certify NS2 before July 2022. And another 13% of existential French nuclear power went down. Bye bye EU industry and likely future as sovereign powers.
▪︎ Holland in “hard” lockdown for next month and UK promises to do same after Christmas (so before Dec 31), along with other EU countries.. limiting socialization & sharing of information and allowing war faction to control narrative in West.
Nevertheless I thank Saker for this posted interview which has lifted my spirits. Russia has brilliantly upped the ante by their ultimata, at worst possible time for West – when it’s winter, they’re not ready for wider war, insufficient gas stores, focused on subjugating their peoples, and had planned a small Ukraine-Russian war.. And China Iran clearly ready to move on other fronts if West chooses suicide. So overall it may turn into a night of the long knives for the war faction, a political internal war of factions (and now external too via ultimata) which may save us all.. May the Saker’s considered judgment hold!
The greekreporter.com article is here:
By the way, the article reports that Geoffrey Pyatt, the former US ambassador in Ukraine, is now ambassador in Greece….
Very good and informative as usual.
One, your description of the War Party has been spot on and helped me to put together how “they” operate. However, you and many posters and writers (including me) seem to struggle with the “Biden” handle: who is he? Who are the people who make up the collective “Biden”? I suggest you/we approach our take on “Biden” and Biden as a work in progress. I don’t think we have accumulated enough collective material to portray “Biden” and Biden’s current positions and predict future actions. Your analysis of Nuland’s power is a bullseye: she is a power center, not Blinken, not Harris. That helps a lot to view “Biden” with that perspective. Biden’s relations with Republicans needs to be looked into historically (Anita Hill/Clarence Thomas is one important chapter) in order to understand him, also, his relations with Obama, Hillary, Joe Lieberman, Jesse Helms, many many others. He is, as he himself bragged, a prostitute. But we need more material to give a better portrayal and make predictions going forward.
Point 2, your position in monitoring comments is obviously your decision– it’s your blog. I hope you don’t use your censoring power too much.
What factions constitute the so-called “Peace Party”? What are their motives and agenda?
Terrific interview and spot on. Consider-
1) All of the pillars supporting the post-WWII US global power- unrivaled military power, control of world’s energy reserves (primarily in the ME), and maintaining the dollar as the world’s reserve currency are being threatened by sky rocketing debt, inflation, astronomically expensive military debacles in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen and attainment of economic/military parity (superiority?) by the Russia-China-Iran axis; this axis is viewed by the ruling elite as an intolerable obstacle to US global power.
2) None of the structural problems giving rise to the Global Financial crisis (GFC) 2007-2008, centered in the US, have been resolved. Rather, since 2009, the FED has used the Treasury as a taxpayer-supported ‘piggy bank’ (the FED cannot print money) to provide > $40 trillion of ultra-cheap money to prop up equities, bonds and over-priced real estate; creating the ‘everything bubble’. The FED is currently spending $120 billion/month buying toxic corporate debt. As a result, since Mar, 2020, US government debt has hemorrhaged circa $6 trillion; total debt is rapidly approaching $30 trillion (See- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN). To this we can add military spending: post 911- militarization has cost US taxpayers circa $21 trillion; despite the $2 trillion debacle in Afghanistan, Biden’s 2022 Military budget exceeds a record $770 billion (See-https://watson.brown.edu).
3) The decline of late-stage American capitalism has progressed to the point where its very survival is contingent upon constant debt monetization (aka money printing) to prop up financial markets and the military. This is becoming increasingly tenuous as this orgy of money printing and debt has created gigantic bubbles in every asset class- ‘everything bubble’, increasing inflation and threatening to derail the dollar’s role as world reserve currency and viability of western capitalism.
This begs the question- which happens first- the dollar tanking/economic implosion or war with the Russia-China-Iran axis?
Was it really a waste of $21 trillion on empire building? Or was something like $18.9 trillion in profit and were did that go? Superyacts and Supermansions? Bunkers? Other?
I really enjoyed your interview and I think you’re becoming more incisive. I really like this:” ….And also to preserve the image of the World Hegemon, which, unfortunately, it is absolutely impossible for Americans to abandon, since this ideology is embedded in the national identity of many, if not all, Americans. “
It reminds me of Uncle Karl (I’ll overlook his materialism) or Arnold Toynbee.
I lift my glass to you.
In my opinion it is vital for the USA to have nuclear missiles as close as possible to Russia (+- 5 minutes) because they cannot compete with hypersonic technology, it is a way to cancel or equal the Russian military supremacy (bringing the threat closer to the borders because it cannot do it from a distance fast enough).
They can only achieve this goal by including Ukraine in NATO.
Retrying without the marian apparition stuff. Sorry about that, I should’ve read your moderation policy first.
You have written a very clear and comprehensive outline of where things stand in regards to our geopolitical situation, one we would never get from the western media. Thank you.
If we understand that in the minds of our fearless leaders, corporate behemoths, banksters and other one percenters, who by blood or money rule, that there are currently 7 billion or so excessive useless eaters here on planet earth, all efforts to foment chaos and destruction in the west become terribly obvious.
Interesting analysis from Gilbert Doctorow.
” a surprise Russian ultimatum”
What do you mean America hasn’t won a War since WWII. What do you call the invasion of Grenada ??? They invaded a golf course and handed out more medals than during the Vietnam War.
The worldview expressed in dialogue is most interesting; thank you.
Whatever people think of George Soros, he does offer a very interesting point in his philosophical writings. He observes most people will never fundamentally change their behaivor, but rather most people will keep on doing what they do no matter what the consequences. (There are some with intellect who are exceptions.) It is worth noting that Soros got rich on this thought. The corollary hereto is that Large world systems like the U.S.A hegemon comprised of millions and millions of people simply will not change course no matter what their leaders want to do or say. The question then becomes, as Soros then points out, is not whether or not there will be a change or collapse, but rather what does the system morph into? Looking over the course of history, one may percieve that an old Soviet style collapse, or say a dramatic Nazi Germany style collapse are anomalies in the course of more typical “empire” life cycles. The U.S.A hegemon rather than experience a notable collapse, may well see a transition into something else; sort of like a catepiller turning into a butterfly. The U.S.A. hegemon may be at the beginning of such a transition now. Problem is nobody (at least that I know of) seems to have any good idea what the new transformed being will be.
Another scenario is that the relentless competition between the major world systems will devastate our global environment to a point where all world systems are brought into extinction. This is what most environmentalists percieve.
As a side note, when it comes to long negotiations (refering to Putin vs Biden), I found it is often not a person’s mental capacity that reigns the argument, but rather one’s ability to hold one’s bladder while seated in a room.
The Sakers interview with Mr.Raevsky was very insightful. He is a very observant person who is very aware of the political climate of the world. We can’t realistically expect different strategic militarized behavior from any given country i.e.; India when America has on countless occasions funded both sides of any given war effort; it’s all dirty; the war machine is truly a sad place to be in especially considering that nationalism is actually a very new concept in our world; something created by the oligarchs, monarchs and the financial ruling elite over titleship and conquest of lands and/or resources already inhabited by the little people like ourselves where we are at their mercy.