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Transcript of podcast no. 1
Provided by the kind help of a wonderful lady “A”
Dear friends thank you so much for downloading this first podcast, this is the Saker speaking.
Let me tell you immediately that this first podcast will be very much a trial and error thing, I’m trying out lots of things, including microphone, settings, internet, so this is going to be alot of mistakes and its not going to be very polished and I apologize. And as for that I am very far from being even like an amateur at these things, so I’ll do my best but no promises.
My hope is that if this podcast is to your liking we’ll do it more often and with time I will hopefully do it better. This is just to give you an idea of what I want to do and really the point is for me to a)
try and be, to give advice, and, b) for you guys to comment and give criticisms as to how I have been doing it on my first try.
Rather than hold a long monologue I rather just go directly to a list of questions. I don’t know how much I’ll cover. Let me think about that. I ‘ll do my best and look through them and see which ones I’m inspired to answer and we”ll see how it goes from here.
So question number one…
“I’m interested in your thoughts on the arrest and persecution of VladimirYevtushenko. Can’t make sense of it, please help me understand this if you can.”
A short answer… I can’t… I know very little about it. All I can tell you is that’s a clear sign that Putin is willing to hit at the highest level of Russian oligarchy. But to really answer your question I would have to know why he did it. What did Yevtushenko do to trigger that reaction from the Kremlin ? I will say this, to expand a little bit on this basic first question, is that Putin and the oligarchs… maybe I can go on a tangent that might be interesting to you guys.
Ok first of all Putin is not the product of the Russian oligarchy as most of you know, he is a product of the former external intelligence branch of the KGB…FSB(?-ed) today would be the equivalent … then it was called (?-ed) which means “first general directorate of the Soviet KGB.
But the Yeltsin regime, which put Putin into power, that was a regime of oligarchs. I would say almost as bad as the one in the Ukraine today. So they definitely had a say in his (Putin’s-ed) arriving to power, and Medvedev, which came as ‘attached’ to Putin is very much also a product of Gazprom and all the big money in Russia.
Putin cannot ignore that. He cannot instantly overnight eliminate them. But I would argue that he’s done a fantastic job… between Bezuglovsky who had to run even before Kodokovsky, who he put in jail and then freed on an amnesty. And alot of others…I mean the top level he essentially decapitated, the top levels of Russian oligarchy.
Which is not to say he finished the Russian oligarchy phenomena. Its very much there. The deal was more an unspoken deal, or maybe spoken, but I don’t have evidence for that, was “if you stay out of politics and don’t hurt the State too much with your greed, I will let you live.” At their end it was “if you let us make money, we will let you play Russian politics.” I think that’s kind of the co-librium. He has definitely been eroding the influence of the oligarchs throughout his presidency, in his position as a prime minister too.
So the notion that he somehow depended on or belongs to or sold out to the oligarchs is a ridiculous one. I think its fair to say that nobody in Russia has done more against oligarchs than Putin. So that’s just for the record on that.
This also brings me to another topic, which is Putin’s economics. To my great regret, Putin is, I would say, a pretty conservative capitalist. He is not for the kind of capitalism that you see in the United States today, or that the Euro block is trying to impose on Europe. He is more of a social democrat, by European definition, which is he believes in a social, that people deserve basic justice, a social network, and that basically competition is good. I mean all these values that the west has, he pretty much has them too. He likes to have them softened or regulated in a number of ways. He clearly wants to have them ‘mainstate enterprises’ in Russia, controlled by the state, at least 51%. Those that are not, there is a simple understanding, that if they go out of line, they will (be controlled.-ed).
So he doesn’t want to, his position is I guess that he is willing to let the market do its thing, but not at the expense of the sovereignty of the people. So its a limited freedom but its a very large freedom. Russia is very much a capitalist country. Its most definitely not communist or even close and I would say his ideas are not the ones of the socialist.
If you look at people in key positions in the economy, the Bureau of the Federal Reserve of Russia, Russia’s central bank, if you look at Medvevev, if you look at his foreign ministers, these are all people who are market capitalists. So even though in many ways, Putin is not in tune with Western ideas, that part is. Therefore, he does not believe that having oligarchs is, in and by itself something wrong and should be dealt with. I think Putin would, I think its reasonable to say that he would say that there’s good oligarchs and bad oligarchs.
So that is another thing that when people point out to me that there are very, that a new generation of oligarchs have replaced the old ones, well yeah, I’ll say yeah that’s true. I would prefer to do without, and I won’t deny that my views on economics and social issues are far, far more to the left than his. But the reality is what it is. I don’t know if he says that because its his deepest belief, or is it because he has to deal with the reality that is Russia today and if he went on an overt oligarchy elimination program, if that would not trigger a serious crisis. I can’t tell what he thinks.
As I’ve written many times, I’ll say it many times, over and over again, I’m not a prophet. I don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow, and I’m not a mind reader. I don’t know what he thinks. I can judge on the past and on the present facts. That’s it. So that’s another explanation why, yes you’ll find very rich people around Putin, around the Kremlin, near the Russian government, the council of ministers, the presidency. The oligarchs have been reined in but far, far from being actually eliminated.
Anderson is asking me whether Putin is a target for assassination.
My answer is absolutely, emphatically, definitely yes, but, that is if the West could get away with it. I’ve no doubt in my mind that they would give him the same treatment as Saddam Hussein got, as Qaddafi got, as Chavez either got or was threatened with. I think he is truly HATED by the western elites. The 1%’ers, the anglo/zionists, whatever you call them, they absolutely hate him. Hate him with a passion. And they have correctly identified him as a mortal, existential threat to their rule over the planet. So not only do they hate him, they are right to hate him, from their point of view.
I read somewhere, I don’t know if its true, that when he went to Wales or Scotland, I think it was the last conference, but don’t quote me on that, I read somewhere that he even brought his own bottles, with water from Russia. So my guess is that if I was in the state security, dealing with the protection of Putin I would take no chance. And yes, I would assume, that regime change, or being shot, or being shot out of the sky or anything, I wouldn’t put anything, anything past the western plutocrats to get rid of Putin.
Will they succeed ? I doubt it. If there’s one thing that the former KGB was good at, and today’s security services are still good at, is protecting Kremlin leaders. So I would doubt they would succeed. I doubt they would try, unless they had even better than plausible deniability. I mean if there’s any chance at all of being caught, I mean can you imagine what would happen if somehow if such a plot surfaced ? So I think its a big ‘no-no’. I think if they can organize a crazy lone shooter or something they probably would, but only with a great, great, great deal of distance between the people ordering such an assassination and the actual execution team.
Things are going very slow. I’m doing my best but here’s another question.
“What do I think of the current situation in Serbia ?”
Ah, the poor Serbs are really in a bad situation because Russia really betrayed Serbia. Under Yeltsin, I shouldn’t say Russia, should really say the Yeltsin regime. Being as it was completely controlled by the US, its not surprising. With the same logic you could say Hillary Clinton betrayed Serbia. Bill Clinton actually ordered the bombing.
In the long run, Russia will most definitely help Serbia. But Russia right now is under threat herself, directly. So the Serbs need to show a great deal of patience, long-suffering and realize that they’re in for the long run.
Yes, not only do I believe that Serbians will recover the historical truth about what was done to them. And by that I mean that this was a war of the western armies and establishment to smash an Orthodox country, but it was also a signal to Russia. “See what we can do to you if you don’t behave. We’ll do it to your ally to show you”. It was a grossly unfair, one-sided approach. I ‘m not saying the Serbs were perfect and everything, but by God the Croats and the Bosnian Muslims were not any better by any stretch of the imagination.
So I think Serbia has a lot of justice to be restored to the Serbian people, but it will take time. All of it, Kosovo, the situation as in the Korean war, ethnically cleansed, all of that is an injustice which the Serbs will not forget. This is absolutely certain. And neither will the Russians. So this one, the Albanians and Kosovo, who now think they’re in power, they better enjoy and say thanks for every day they got, because that will come to an end. I’ve no doubt about it.
But in the meantime, unfortunately, the Serbs are on their own. They can’t fight Nato and the EU. So they have no other way but to compromise.
And its not for me to say how they should do it or what is appropriate for them to do. I would never blame them for any compromise that they have to accept nowadays, because (they’re) in objectively a situation of quasi-powerlessness, in front of Nato and the US.
Very interesting question by Crossley Bandix. “What would you suggest reading if someone is to try to understand, if someone is trying to understand Russia ?”
What I’m going to say is going to be very weird. But I think the single most important book that you should read is the “Gulag Archipelago” by Alexander Solzhenitsyn. The latest version, which is a three volume book. And I can shortly explain why. Not because its relevant to our politics today. Its not.
Its a book about the history of what, Solzhenitsyn wanted that book to be a monument like on a tomb, of the millions of killed Russians. Why I recommend that book is Solzhenitsyn is actually an ‘old Russian’. He comes from the generation who was born to the ‘resistance’ to the Bolshevik rule, because really the civil war in Russia did not finish in ’21. The civil war in Russia started in 1917 or ’18, and finished, I would argue in 1946. And even there, you could argue a little bit maybe later like ’47, ’48, was when the civil war was over because during all these years, from say ’17 to ’46 the Russian people resisted. And that book, outlining that and describing that, gives you a very good image of what true Russians, and true Russia is.
You have to understand that, first of all Russia, like Germany, not all Germans are nazis and not all Russians were soviets. I’m not even speaking about ideologists, I’m speaking about culture here. There is this idea of the ‘soviet man’. Russia, the Russian culture and traditions, religion, were all suppressed by the soviet system. I apologize in advance for those of you listening who are marxists or leninists. I am giving my sincere opinion, and if it offends you I’m sorry.
I will say this, I think that the type of marxism that we saw in the Soviet Union during the soviet era does not have to be the only model, but I have very little good to say about it. I have to tell you that very honestly.
So I would read the Archipelago because, by through the people he describes in that book, the book is marvelously written by the way, its not just a dry report. On a literary level, its my favorite book by him actually. You can read it well translated into English. It will give you a sense of what Russians are like, because Russia is not an abstract place, its people.
So if you read the book, Gulag Archipelago you’ll get a sense of the tragedy of Russia in the 20th century and what the Russian culture is like. So this would be my primary recommendation.
My second book would be a basic introduction to Orthodox Christianity, and again a very basic one. Probably I would recommend, particularly an early edition, there was an author called Timothy Ware, who became a clergyman and he is now a bishop “connystus” (sp?-ed). But the book’s simply called “The Orthodox Church”. Its very easy to find. It gives you pretty good information, its not perfect, nothing is perfect, but that’s another good book.
Begin by those two. If you read those two, you’re in good shape for studying further. Good luck.
Just a question here: “Explain why Orthodox priests are ‘monarchists’. If so, could you elaborate on their vision.”.
No. That would take a PhD thesis, or a podcast 6 hours long. I can’t inflict that on you. To make a long story short, I would say that any Orthodox Christian who starts to study his religion naturally becomes a monarchist because essentially monarchy is the only Orthodox social order. That being said being Orthodox does not necessarily equate with being completely insane, stupid or ignorant. You deal with mono-reality, so in a way I’m willing to say I’m a monarchist. Very much so. But I know this is totally impossible in modern Russia.
So I think most clergymen and laity, and most Orthodox Christians who are educated, those who are not they don’t fall into this category, but what you mean by priests is really educated Orthodox people, they naturally gravitate towards that (monarchy-ed), because that was the order of St Constantine at the moment when Christianity was adopted by the Roman Empire, down to the last Tzar. Orthodoxy and monarchism were completely intertwined.
But in a century where Christianity is a minority religion anyways, even in Orthodox countries, most nominally Orthodox people are just nominally Orthodox and not any further than that, its really not a practical issue at all, so people can at the same time, like myself, am I am Monarchist ? Yes. Do I have very hard left ideas, very close to some communist ideas on economics specifically ? Absolutely. There is no contradiction between the two. To me there is no contradiction between the two, monarchy is neither left nor right for instance. Monarchy should not be confused with aristocracy, which is not only not the same thing, its actually mutually exclusive conditions. Monarchy and aristocracy are the two worst enemies in history. If you really know what monarchy is really all about you realize its fighting, its usually the tzar-emperor-king, whatever you call him, with the people, against elites. So. Its really not the kind of monarchy when you think, when you look at Lady Di and the English crown or Horan Cudless (sp?) in Spain. I’m talking about something very different.
But yes, Orthodoxy did promote the idea of symphony between the secular and the religious authorities. Byzantium or Rome, which it really is, Byzantium is really a misnomer, Rome always had that, at least Christian Rome was always the pure expression of Orthodox theology and dogmatics.
So they are intertwined. I mean its perfectly logical. But please don’t think that every priest, or Orthodox layman that you meet, that says, or sounds like a monarchist, the example being Starlikov, doesn’t mean that tomorrow he wants the Tzar in the Kremlin, or Putin to run around with a crown. You know its not at all what it means. Its sort of more a philosophical inclination. Its a world view, not a political agenda.
I see there are a number of questions about Russian policy in the Ukraine. Here’s what I want to do. If you guys really want me to make a podcast on that, I’ll make a separate one on that because its a long topic. I will just give you a really short summary of my views, for those who haven’t read them now. And I hope its going to be good enough. If not, lets dedicate a full podcast to it, if you want.
Short story first. For number one, Novorussia, and Russia have different interests. There’s nothing wrong with that, but its an objective situation.
Novorussia is two cities with a part of the regions around them, their ‘counties’ so to speak, their cantons who are trying to survive the onslaught. (they)Don’t really know what to do with themselves in the future. I mean their priority is, ‘being shelled or not being shelled’.
Russia is a huge country that objectively now leads the entire worldwide resistance to the anglo/zionist empire. Completely different perspectives, completely different realities. So there’s going to be a contradiction right there.
Secondly, I would say the following. The further you go west, the less support there is for the struggle of Novorussia. Okay ? I’ve seen Novorussian leaders who were saying, “Well, while we’re here, we’re liberators…the further west we go the more we become occupiers.”
This is important, because for instance, I don’t know if you’ve watched the long videos, I posted the links on the blogs, two or three press conferences, I’m referring to the one between Musgovoi and the Ukrainian commanders, where one of them, in explaining why he had taken up arms, whether that’s true or not, that doesn’t matter, its at least plausible because he said it, said that the day, as he puts it, not my words, he says, you know, “Russia sent in the polite green men to Crimea, and Russia occupied Crimea.” For him it was a trigger, even though he’s not Crimean himself, he said, “Russia’s taking a chunk of my country.”
And that is something that is completely overlooked in alot of, you know I call them ‘hurray patriots’
who say “yeah lets drive down to Kiev and shoot all the nazis.”
The problem is the following. Not all Ukrainians are nazis. Now I don’t care if the current Ukrainian rada is chockful with nazis. But the people, are not. However, not being a nazi does not necessarily mean being pro-Russian. There is a third option which doesn’t, to me personally doesn’t make sense, but its a fact of life, a reality. There are people who speak Russian, who are culturally Russian who see the Ukraine as THEIR country and who really believe that if other Russians show up, that is an invasion of an enemy.
In other words, they will resist. This guy took up arms because he couldn’t stomach the idea of Putin taking Crimea. Now if Putin took Donbass and Lugansk, which they think he did, that triggers even more of that! Can you imagine if, as they would say, not me, they would say, they wouldn’t say “Novorussia liberated itself”. They would feel the Russians, Putin, the Kremlin, the muskovi, have taken the region (ed note – names of all the regions) !!!! Can you imagine the kind of resistance this would generate ? It would just massively strengthen the anti-Russian tendencies in the Ukraine, which are present there anyways. Because for all the history of the Ukraine the western powers have used anti-Russian propaganda as the bogeyman.
So not only would Russia confirm that it is indeed the bogeyman as described by the papacy, by the western empires, by the anglo-zionists, by everybody. Even people who are not susceptible to the propaganda might really resent Russia getting involved.
So the second reason why I think Russia is not getting in it, because it is literally aware of that problem.
The solution for the Kremlin and Putin, is not a novorussia. The solution is regime change in Kiev. In order to achieve that result it is necessary for the Ukraines themselves to clean house. You can’t just send in, like during WW11, you know Stalin ended up in Berlin and alot of people saying, “Yeah we went to Berlin, why can’t we go to Kiev ?? Of course we can, that’s a no-brainer”.
I estimate 48 hours, the time it would take Russia to completely protect Novorussia from any kind of Ukrainian attack, and if they wanted to push fast, in a week they could be in Kiev in full control. Militarily speaking ‘a no-brainer’.
But that’s exactly what “dubyah” did in Iraq. They got to Baghdad very fast and then what ? Declare ‘mission accomplished’ and go home ? And you know, have a long war taking place ?? Its ridiculous.
Putin thinks further ahead that just that. The guys who support that kind of Russian operation, they just want to go to Kiev, take over the city, get the, all these guys on the cashatcha (sp), shoot them all. “Goodbye with the nazis! Finished ! We’re done.”
No. No. No. That’s when the civil war starts. And Putin is aware of that, so he cannot just send in, Russia has no business, its wrong for the Russian interest. And the Ukrainian people need to do it THEMSELVES. They need… apparently history has created the situation that the Ukrainians need to suffer under nazi rule, they need to understand that Europe just lied to them. That there’s no help coming from Europe, no help coming from the US. They’re on their own with a western backed nazi regime. And their only friends are in Russia.
That’s where this has to end. And that is going to happen only if the Ukraines de-nazify their own country. And once they do that, no matter what kind of political course they choose, they will not choose one which says “I will not deal with my biggest neighbor, I will not deal with my closest ethnic culture and historical partner. I will pretend like he is my worst enemy.” That nonsense will stop. But the Ukrainians need to do it themselves. Absolutely crucial.
“Do I have information about Novorussia taking advantage of the ceasefire ?”
Not directly. But ever since there were signs that Ukrainians were about to run the offensive, yes very much so. The obertorg (military store) is working at full capacity. Today is Sunday and there’s at least three videos on the internet of huge convoys of heavy systems going through the streets of Donetsk. So yes, the answer is yes.
There is a question about Putin being ill. I don’t know. I cannot prove a negative, that he’s not. But I can tell that we heard the rumours many times over. I think its wishful thinking. And if he is ill, Kremlin has fantastic doctors. They could keep a dying alcoholic in power for 10 years and a completely sclerotic old man more or less capable of function for two decades. So don’t know if he’s sick. I wish him all the best, and I would ignore these rumours until he’s dead. Lets not think he is dying.
Ok. Don Schneider’s asked a question here: “Would it not have been possible, better, for all concerned if Russia had told the East Ukraine rebels, early, up-front, in no uncertain terms, that they could not expect assistance from Russia, of any kind, overt or covert ? If Russia had done so there could be no question of betrayal.”
Ok, well I think what happened is this. You remember when basically the parliament in Russia, and Putin, they agreed that they would …………(?) in the military into Ukraine. And the thought was, and he said he wouldn’t do it unless he had to protect the civilian population in which case he would send in the military. After he made that promise the civilian population was attacked there. So you can certainly make the logical case that he defaulted on his promise. If you want to call that a lie, or a betrayal, that’s not unreasonable.
I think its a matter of appreciation, the way I see it, my personal opinion, its totally subjective, take it or leave it. I think Putin hoped that the threat would be sufficient to prevent the nazis from going on a full scale offensive like they did. The hope was, I think, that if they would do it, that they’d be so afraid of getting hit by Russia, that they would not dare go in. Unfortunately they did go in. And the reason why is that I think, if it had been just Kiev they probably wouldn’t have. But remember there’s no regime at all in Kiev that rules the country. Its all ruled by the local CIA station. Which means the US.
And the US, they send the Ukies in, even what is essentially a suicide mission, because, lets say if they had, if Putin really had intervened at the moment when Strelkov began resisting around Slavensk, the Russians would have wiped out the Ukrainians in, you know, three days. Something like that.
But then the Americans could declare, “See they’re invading further.” I mean it would have been exactly what the Americans wanted. And for the rest of the Ukraine, the argument would have been, “Everything goes wrong here because of the Muscovites and the way they attacked us.”
So I think the Americans sent them in on essentially what was a suicide mission and Putin at his great regret, and after a great deal of frustration, from what I know the government was split. The majority of his advisers said, “Lets not go in.” And I think at this moment, he looked, it looked like he made a mistake with that promise. Did he ? Is it wrong to try to deter your opponent?, is my first question. And I think there is one answer to that.
Secondly, in his defense, how many people in the civilian population have died there ? And how many live there ? 2000, 3000, 10,000 people dead out of a population of what ? Somewhere I read that in (the polls) Russia said (?)1 million people. I don’t know exactly, not off my head right now. But certainly in the millions. If you want to be technical, then you can say, “well, that doesn’t constitute a massive attack, regardless of the number of weapons fired, because they’re fired very unskillfully.” And the combats, the interesting thing is that, the level of skills that are so pathetic on the Ukrainian side that, well a politician could argue that it wasn’t bad enough.
I think it was bad enough. I think that its definitely a black mark on Putin, the fact that he said “I would go in if they do that”, and they did it and he didn’t go in. But it was also the right thing to do, for him not to go in. So the real mistake was to make that promise. I agree with that.
But its not over yet. Particularly I would notice that Russia did go in covertly to reverse the first Ukrainian attack. If not for Russians you never would have had the retreat. The huge counter effects of this summer for one thing. The store second, political support third. I mean Russia used all sorts of means which are not direct military involvement. And I think in certain occasions they actually did get militarily involved. I’m fairly confident that they did shell across the border, and the Russian special ops were in the area. There’s testimony to that.
But again they were there but in a non-provable way. So, that’s speculation. I can have my opinion. It doesn’t prove anything. And there’s still chance that if the Donetsk-Lugansk really become threatened by a Ukie offensive, the Russian military will go in. But that is the political argument. “Now we know what the Ukies are capable of, now we know that these guys are real nazis.”
I mean they’ve shown their faces in more ways than one. I think its a much more strong political case for him (now) if he had to do it. But I still think he will try to avoid it to the end. So I hope that answers your question, halfway adequately.
Ok. Now I think I want to turn to the questions I asked you.
“Who won, who lost on the first gas deal?” And secondly, the Ukrainian elections.
Now first of all I don’t think there is a correct or wrong answer to these questions. I like to ask them, as an exercise, but I think depending on your criteria, time frame and values, you can legitimately come up with different replies to that. So I won’t be a judge, and say “you guys are right, you guys are wrong.” I won’t do that. I ‘ll just give you my opinion for whatever its worth.
And I’ll begin with the loser. I think the biggest loser is Europe. Man, they’re going to be, now they’re paying, finally they’re paying the money price for their support for that idiotic regime, that’s been thieving money, European gas, I mean, let them pay for it. So they’re offering their guarantee, they’re giving their money. Excellent. I have a complete case of shut-and-file over that. They deserve it. So they lost, essentially. The US is laughing because they’re not personally involved in that. Europe is hurting most economically. Now they even have to put money down.
The Russians, did they win or lose ? I’ll tell mainly “won”, for two reasons. First of all the price they got, which still might be changed by the way, its not a legal binding document. Its sort of a standing agreement or protocol, whichever you want to call it. I think Russia’s going to, I mean Russia under sanctions from the EU is now going to get money from the EU for gas. That it wants to export anyways. So I think that’s sweet justice to that. The official price, $385, which is what Russia wanted from the spring on already, so Russia really hasn’t lost.
The fact that the Ukrainians will have to heat themselves very poorly, very badly on Russian gas is always good. Its a show of power to them, and what gas really means. So I don’t think it makes a difference whatsoever to the internal conflict. I think the winter, those who think that a certain amount of Russian gas will actually help the Junta live through the winter are wrong, because the future of the Junta does not just depend on heating.
Even lets assume, lets make a thought experiment. Lets assume that somehow the royal community or the good Lord in Heaven gave the Ukrainians infinite energy for the winter. But not to export, that would be cheating our thought experiment. But to use. So within the territory of the Ukraine they have all the energy they want. Would that save the Junta by itself ? With an economy that’s shrunk, by I think 10% over the past year ? The richest part of the country, after Kiev, but that’s artificial because of taxes and government, but really the richest county was the Donbass. And its either gone or bombed into smithereens. The big cash-cow is gone or its in Russian hands. Novorossiya, Crimea.
How are they (Junta) going to survive ? There’s alot of other things that you have to do. Having gas does not allow you to pay pensions or salaries. You can heat the homes of the people, who don’t get pensions and salaries, but that’s it. It doesn’t buy you medicine. It doesn’t buy you imports of everything that a country like that needs to import. So we shouldn’t have that fixation on “oh my God, you know, if the spigot of gas is open the Junta does just great” and, “If Russia shuts it down the Junta will die.”
The Junta will die no matter what. Its just a matter, and I don’t think there’s anything that even Russia could do to prevent the regime in Kiev from collapsing. What Russia can do is to get the most, the best objective circumstances for itself, during that process of collapse, which will take a while. I don’t think its going to be that fast. I don’t think they’re going to collapse… let me re-phrase that.
The actual regime that will come out of the latest rada elections, which is probably going to be at syn- yo or some kind of variant, with Poroshenko, will collapse pretty soon I think anyway, because of being unstable. Its going to be threatened by that part, the non-controllable ideologues of that, you know Svoboda.and them, the rest of them, the nazi thugs. So there’s going to be infighting. But you know, its the fighting between nazis really. So.
But will the regime itself, is there going to be a regime change, or rather a garment change ? I don’t think so, not any time soon. I think we’re going to have a repeat of what we had this summer and next summer. I think this is where this is going, and some other kind of conflict. I mean the situation in the Ukraine is so unstable that there is only two things that can solve it. A war in the East or a civil war in the Banderastan proper. So either way, its war. Its just a matter of when.
And what will trigger that collapse will be a comprehensive social/economic collapse. And that social economic collapse will not be prevented. Will not be hindered just by Russia delivering a certain amount of gas. So that’s to answer the first question.
Now Novorussyia, now that is crucial. Russia truly has to deliver, not only humanitarian aid. That’s not good enough. And the reason why, is that you don’t want to create a situation where all of Novorussia is depending on Russian aid. So aid is good, its an emergency measure, but what Russia needs is to develop the economy there. That’s the stable way.
Which means they need to, I mean I remember fairly correctly, there is a Ministry of the Development of Crimea. Or something like that, at least there’s a ministerial position in Russia for the economic development of Crimea. I think something similar should be done, maybe not that ‘heightability’ for Novorussia, alot of people have left. The best brains have been in Russia for years already. But I’ve already spoken about that. The best Ukrainians, in terms of education, skills etc have been immigrating either west or to Russia for years.
Still, there’s alot of good brains in Novorussia left. There are resources. This really needs to be developed. That is the true political decision that I hope the Kremlin will take. Humanitarian aid for the immediate needs, followed by a massive program of economy development. And that means contracts, contracts, contracts. Russia, I would argue, the Kremlin, should take the decision of privileging companies who are based in Novorussia for all contracts etc. Something like that. An affirmative action for Novorussians throughout the full Russia. Bela-Russia, now they have economic results, Armenia, Kazakhstan. Belarus and Russia herself. That’s the solution. And that’s the crucial thing. I don’t know if they’re going to do it. I think they will. I hope they will. But I have no information as of now, that this is happening. But I hope it will.
As to who lost and won Rada elections.
Well its kind of simple actually. I put down “Oligarches beat Nazis”. But really honestly, they’re the same. So its like oliglo-nazis, painted “oligarchic”, won against those who were more obviously the nazi kind, unless plutocratic in fact. The only people who truly won essentially were the guys who got elected. They’re all essentially the same thing. This rada is an absolute disaster.
Its kind of interesting that the abstention is fantastic. I mean, to think how half the country didn’t vote. Or more. Because they could sense a fraud. I think if I’m not mistaken, I guess it was 13% (for Poroshenko). I mean that’s just mind boggling. So what happens is that, that if we say, see that’s the thing, if you got 22%… 23 %, lets be generous, lets say he got 30%. But he got 30% of those who voted, which is 50% of the country, voted for him, you realize that the entire rada is completely in the minority. The biggest parties there are 10-12% support throughout the country. And that is without Crimea and Novorussia. Ok? So its mind boggling.
The regime suffered a crushing political defeat because its rejected by the people. But of course the western media is so good at hiding it, that they present it as a triumph for the regime. Even Poroshenka who actually lost in his sinuck (riding?) says that his party achieved a brilliant victory. So they’re all guilty. They were victorious, they were happy, but if you look deeper you realize its embarrassing.
Well, the Ukrainian people ? I think they did the best they could. There was nobody to vote for so abstention was the smartest thing. The Opposition Bloc amazingly got alot of votes. So that’s actually encouraging. To me this proves yet again, that there’s a big difference between the Ukrainian nazis and the Ukrainian people. There’s a minority of nazis there. Really. I mean that’s encouraging, that’s important.
And I want to conclude today, this first attempt at the little podcast, by sharing the following thoughts with you.
Coming back again to the three videos I posted of dialogue between, on one hand Bezler and that Ukrainian journalist, her name is Olegya something, I don’t know, funny last name. And particularly the second one, where Musgovoy was speaking with Ukrainian commanders, military commanders.
The conclusion that I, which, how shall I put it ? The thing that most impressed me was the following:
There are circumstances where exterminating your enemy is the only solution. I mean it disturbs me to say that. Its sad. I think its a very uncomfortable thought. But its true. And I think a perfect example of that are the truly, the leaders, the nutcases, the wahhabis. The kind of folks that we had in Chechnya that Razmada Kordorov (president of Chechnya) very correctly calls them shy-tans, or devils. I agree. I happen to, my name for these forces, before I heard him say it was hays-shydan. The party of the devil.
There is a point where you can’t, there’s nothing to negotiate, with certain individuals. I mean you can give them what I call the Putin Choice, which is give up, change, or die. And that’s what he said when, you probably remember that saying of his when he said, “We’re gonna follow you everywhere, we’re going to persecute you until its even, we’re going to arrest, we’re going to shoot you in the rest-room.”
And that’s really what he did in Chechnya. Him and Kordorov. They literally, physically exterminated enough insurgents and all of the leaders. Vacuum. Literally they, for the wide point of view, they created a vacuum, which allowed tradition Islam to come back. Kordorov came to power, I mean, at that point, these two, they gave the option to all of the field commanders, who wanted to come back. “Dignity without going to jail” etc, did a huge amnesty, but those who persisted ? Shoot them to the last one.
Well, looking at these elections, with the 50% abstentions or plus, listening to the Ukrainian commanders or the regular Ukrainian military, all I see is an overwhelming sense that “this war does not have to be.” There is no war between the Ukrainian people and the Russian people. And much less so a war that cannot be stopped, which is a war of ex-, mutual extermination.
Clearly, clearly the vast majority of the Ukrainians are not nazi. Some of them might be nationalistic, you know, in my book that’s perfectly fine, not an ideology that I particularly share in, but one which doesn’t bother me, as long as it doesn’t turn into you know, phobia or racism. And some of them want to have an independent country which is not part of Russia. Perfectly legitimate in my point of view also. These guys are fighting right now because, the tragedy is, its a little bit like WW2. If you’re a German you ended up being Hitler’s army, if you’re a Russian you ended up being Stalin’s army, regardless of what you thought about your national leader.
So this is a situation where you have to remove the cancer. A tumor. And in the Ukraine that tumor is a nazi tumor. It has to be completely removed. But you can’t kill the patient at the same time. So the good news, the many times that both sides said, “That you and us, we have very much the same ideas.” When they said, “You know, we could go to Kiev together and clean up that mess.” So that my hope is that this is going to happen.
Right now, externally, yes, it looks like the nazis are in complete control of the Rada. There’s no real opposition. I mean its very small. The communists have been effectually banned, terrorized and bullied. I mean the Ukraine is an absolute disaster right now.
But coming back to Solzhenitsyn, at the beginning of this podcast. He has once said, you know “Russia is like a frozen river”, he said. That’s during communism. He said you know, “From the top, all you see is ice, death, cold. Nothing. But under that ice, a river flows, full of life.”
And that’s how I see the Ukraine today. I see it externally as an abominable, disgusting banderastan, run by nazis. Who at the same time manage to be oligarchs, which is kind of strange. And on top of that, run by the anglo/zionist empire. I mean talk about a sickening combination. Completely illogical, but you know they manage to combine all three. Their support by the population is thin, thin, thin. That’s the good news. There’s no way for the population to show it, but its there. And with time alot of even those who did believe in the Maidan, and maybe they were wrong, that’s fine. But they did it, I think alot of people went for the Maidan for the right reasons. They will come to see that what they did is allow the nazis to literally take over their country.
And I hope for a resurgence of healthy Ukrainian nationalism. The kind of Ukrainian nationalism which says, “We’re part of our roots, our traditions, our culture”. And its not an ‘anti’. You don’t have to hate the neighbor to be proud of your own roots. That’s totally needless, and doesn’t have to be. What a nonsense, about the “Muscovy re-writing history”. This makes no sense either. I hope this is going to go out. This is what I call a de-nazification.
Ideally probably a neutral country is probably the best thing. Independent. A no-bloc country. If that’s acceptable to the anglo/zionist empire.
But if they’re truly dead-set, if the anglo-zionists will never, never never take anything except for total victory, well, then you’ll get total defeat. Which is, the Ukraine will eventually collapse to such a degree that Russia will take, if not direct control of most of it, indirect control of most of it.
So there’s no doubt in my mind that the empire is losing this war. That’s another thing that probably alot of people would disagree with me. I think the price of the, I think the costs of this war might be terrible, but they’re losing. They’re losing because they’re not standing, its not viable. The notion that you could keep a nazi/oligarchic/anglo/zionist regime in power in the Ukraine is laughable. Yes, it can last a year, a couple of years, but not long-term.
And the notion that this country can be based on the hatred of essentially itself, is crazy too. So I think its almost a Hegelian dialectical process. There will be the reaction, I think its happening already. So very uncharacteristically, on the long run again, I am actually optimistic. I think Putin and his advisers have chosen the correct course. I fully support it. I think the Novorussians are doing exactly what they should and I will fully support them. Even though I’m aware that there is a contradiction between both sides here, I think there’s a compromise possible. And I don’t see the nazis staying in power. So that is my hope at least for the future.
Ok guys, I think I’m going to stop here. I have no idea how long this is, because, well, its a technical reason, because I can’t see and I missed a button or something. So I apologize profusely if my voice is too loud or too long. This is my first try. I’ll try to fix it or run that through Odasity(sp?) to see if there’s something that needs to be fixed or caught. Might be clumsy.
Anyhow at the top I’ll try to put some music. If not at the beginning, at the end, because its sort of, doesn’t that make it a real podcast ? Maybe not a jingle, but its an opportunity for me to share something that is not political that I want to share with you guys, if you don’t mind. I will also put some music at the end.
So I hope that was fun. It was kind of fun for me. I was very self-conscious, unsure of what I’m doing, but if you like it we can repeat it. Now the decision is yours. Thanks alot and kind regards to you all.