This article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/the-ukraine-between-fascism-ochlocracy-and-breakup/
There is less talk about the rump-Ukraine in the news these days, especially in the western corporate media, and there is a good reason for that: that short-lived Urkonazi “Banderastan” is falling apart. This is hardly surprising since the entire concept was never viable in the first place. Let’s remember how it all began.
It is crucial to remember that there was no spontaneous revolution or insurrection in the Ukraine, the Euromaidan had nothing to do with Europe and everything to do with the USA. Oh sure, the Ukrainian people were told that it was about “joining the EU”, but that was never even a remote possibility. The sole purpose of the Euromaindan was to prevent the rebirth of a “new Soviet Union”. No matter how ludicrous the notion of a USSR v2 might be, this is what was in the always paranoid, self-deluded and ignorant minds of the US “deep state”. Two of the main spokesmen for that US deep state were very clear about this:
First, we have the crucial statement made by Hillary Clinton in early December of 2012:
“There is a move to re-Sovietise the region,” (…) “It’s not going to be called that. It’s going to be called a customs union, it will be called Eurasian Union and all of that,” (…) “But let’s make no mistake about it. We know what the goal is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or prevent it.”
Now, it is absolutely irrelevant to argue about whether Hillary was right or wrong in her interpretation. what matters is that she, and her political masters, really believe is that Putin wants to re-create the Soviet Union.
Next, we need to recall another crucial statement, made this time by Zbigniew Brzezinski who wrote:
Without Ukraine Russia ceases to be empire, while with Ukraine – bought off first and subdued afterwards, it automatically turns into empire…According to him, the new world order under the hegemony of the United States is created against Russia and on the fragments of Russia. Ukraine is the Western outpost to prevent the recreation of the Soviet Union.
Again, it does not matter at all whether evil Zbig is right or wrong. What matters is that this was the real cause of the Euromaidan: the Americans wanted to create an anti-Russia right across the Russian border. This anti-Russia would have been an extremely dangerous and destabilizing neighbor for Russia. And if Russia did intervene in the Ukraine, that would have revived a simmering Cold War to new levels, justifying the “protection” of Europe by the USA for the next 50 or 60 years at least. Uncle Sam was in a win-win situation. It was a great plan, except that it never worked, of course.
First, the Russian twice stunned the Americans: first, by using military force where they were never expected to do so (Crimea) and, second, by not using military force were they were expected to do so (the Donbass). This was really bad news for the AngloZionist Empire: Crimea, the undisputed “crown jewel” of the “independent Ukraine” was reunited with Russia without a single fatality, while the Donbass (for sure the richest and most advanced part of the “independent Ukraine”) seceded without any overt Russian military intervention at all. That was not what the US strategists had hoped for.
In total disarray, they ordered the Ukronazi military and death-squads to re-take the secessionist region, and the junta almost did. Only a desperate last ditch resistance by the Novorussians followed by the opening of a vast Voentrog (lit. “military trade”, name of a well known military surplus store, “voentorg” now refers to the covert delivery of military equipment to Novorussia) and a well-organized “northern wind” (the sending of volunteer military specialists) saved the day. After that critical moment, the Ukronazis never had another major success and their operational offensives in Saur Mogila and Debaltsevo ended in total disaster.
Then the junta in Kiev tried everything, from bombings, to random artillery attacks, to the use of phosphorus gas, to terrorist attacks, to even the use of ballistic missiles and, of course, the MH-17 false flag. But nothing worked. The Novorussians had dug in and their tactical skills and morale was vastly superior to the junta’s forces. Worse, the Novorussians succeeded, albeit with great efforts, to eventually turn their volunteer militias into a single conventional military force. Of course, compared to the Russian military, the Donetsk and Lugansk forces are still a eons away in terms of capabilities, but compared to the so-called “Ukrainian army” or the Nazi death-squads – they are vastly more capable and sophisticated.
Second, the level of mis-management, corruption and plain stupidity shown by the new ruling “elite” (so to speak) was truly of an African quality. For one thing, these nationalist imbeciles committed economic seppuku by severing almost all ties with Russia. While these ties were important to Russia, they were absolutely vital to the Ukraine. Furthernmore, Poroshenko and the coterie of pseudo-nationalist oligarchs around him proceeded to embezzle everything worth embezzling and simply stole all the money which the West provided has “help” to support the New Ukraine.
Third, despite the fact that a huge strategic PSYOP had been organized in the western corporate media to present the Ukronazis as well-intentioned patriots wanting to join Europe and live free, the Ukies were so stupid and overt in their words, actions and symbols that it became more and more clear to the people in the West that far from dealing with some “liberty loving democrats” the West was in bed with bone fide Nazis. Not only that, but the West was now paying to be in bed with them. Not that the European corporate leaders ever were so squeamish as to not be willing to be in bed with psychopathic murderers, but in the Ukrainian case this meant the lose of a much more important market: Russia.
So now, in May 2016, it becomes more and more obvious, if not undeniable, that the entire “Ukrainian project” is a total mess, potentially far worse and far more dangerous than the mess in Libya or Iraq. At least Libya has a tiny population while and Iraq can probably be brought back into some semblance of normalcy by the Iranians, assuming the West stops using Daesh to destabilize the entire region. But the Ukraine has roughly 40 million people left (officially 45M, but between Crimea, the Donbass and those who fled, it is probably well under 40M by now), smack in the center of Europe (at least if, unlike me, you consider “eastern Europe” as part of Europe). And it is falling apart. Fast.
The coup in the Ukraine has been described as a coup of “millionaires against billionaires” and there much truth to this. Oligarchs are clearly one of the key forces in the New Ukraine. The other major forces are the neo-Nazis, mostly from the western Ukraine. The third, and often forgotten, force are the various criminal mobs (ethnic and regional) who, while often closely linked to the oligarchs and Nazis, is still distinct from these two, mainly by different motives and a different mindset. The key thing about all of them is this: they are now all armed to the teeth. That’s right – the oligarchs have their own “security services”, the Nazis have their death-squads while the mobsters all have their gangs of armed thugs. As for the Ukie cops, they are staying out of the way, while the much feared SBU (Ukie KGB), which has never caught a single western spy in its entire history, is so busy kidnapping, torturing and generally terrorizing any anti-Nazi Ukrainian left that they have no time, or inclination, for law and order operations. Even anything, the SBU is basically “for hire” by the oligarchs, Nazis and even mobsters.
As for the Ukrainian armed forces, they are mostly composed of men from the eastern Ukraine and they lack the kind of ideological drive which the death-squads, which are composed of mostly west-Ukrainians, have. They do, however, have more firepower than the death-squads, and that partially explains why neither the regulars nor the death-squads have performed well in combat. What is certain is that neither the regular armed forces nor the death-squads have the means, or the will, to restore law and order, nevermind do something about the economic disaster.
In other words – there is no rule of law left at all and if the country has not entirely gone down the “Somali road” yet, it is mainly by inertia. But as the consequences of the economic collapse become evident, violence will explode.
Now that western aid has more or less dried up, and the country has been robbed blind, the central government has less and less relevance to the regions, each of which is now run by local oligarchs/warlords. This is most likely the first step in the inevitable process of breakup of what is left of the Ukraine with Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk joining forces to create a mini-Banderastan in the west of the country. Odessa and the southern Ukraine will, sooner or later, want to break free from the control of Kiev and either be independent or join Russia in one way or another, while the central Ukraine will be left with nothing except roaming gangs of thugs à la Mad Max.
As for the Donbass (and Crimea, of course), they are gone forever – and Kiev knows that. The best proof of that awareness in Kiev can be found in the undeniable fact that the Junta has made absolutely zero efforts to try to lure back or somehow attract the people in the breakaway regions of the Ukraine to return to Kiev’s fold. Instead of paying their pensions (which they legally were obliged to), the stole all the pension money of the people in the Donbass. As for Crimea, Kiev imposed a water blockade, a transportation blockade, a food blockade and an electricity blockade. And while Russia provided everything need for the people of Crimea, that kind of petty and outright nasty harassment will hardly endure the Nazi Junta in Kiev to the people of Crimea. The fact is that Kiev has long given up on the notion of convincing the “vatniki” whom they have always hated and considered as subhuman semi-Asian mongrels anyway.
The new chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, and the number 2 person in the country, Andrei Parubii, a overt Nazi with, according to rumors, mental issues, is now seriously discussing establishing a visa regime with Russia – thereby depriving 4-5 million Ukrainians in Russia from working in Russia and sending money back home. Sounds crazy? It is. But these are the same folks who closed the Ukrainian airspace to Russian airlines which, predictably, resulted in Russia closer her airspace to the Ukrainians. One look at a map will tell you who lost more.
Of course, as the economy comes to a standstill, the ideological struggles will gradually be replaced by even more primitive forms of competition for good and services and, in certain regions, even for food and shelter. When this process will begin the rump-Ukraine will undergo a process of transformation from fascism to ochlocracy at which point the rump-Ukraine will probably break up and a new wave of refugees will flood the EU.
The most amazing thing in all this is that the Ukrainian nationalists really did it all to themselves. If between 1991 and 2014 the Ukraine was run in a corrupt and incompetent manner, after 2014 the new leaders in Kiev embarked on a course which can only be described as suicidal. Seeing the chaos in the Ukraine today, it is hard to believe that in 1991 the Ukraine was a highly developed country, with an immense potential and which seemed poised to immensely benefit from being a natural bridge between the East and the West. The current apocalypse is entirely man-made, driven by hate-filled ideological delusion, fantastic levels of corruption and an apparently total lack of common sense.
The Ukrainians were promised a future looking like Germany and, instead, they got Somalia. There is going to be hell to pay for all those who were involved in this gigantic deception.