[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]
While the Ukraine has mostly been out of the news, there were bigger stories out there, things have gone disastrously wrong under “Ze” (Zelenskii) and the Ukraine is now looking at several time bombs which could explode at any minute. Here is a partial list of problems which the Ze administration will have to deal with in 2021: (in no particular order)
- The strengthening of the internal opposition to Ze’s rule
- The COVID pandemic, the vaccine scandal and the crumbling Ukrainian infrastructure
- The crackdown on free speech
- The persecution of opponents inside and even outside the Ukraine
- The (limited) rise of (putatively pro-Russian) OPZZh party
- The sharp rise in European rhetoric against Russia which the Ze admin will want to match and cater to
- The hardening of the positions of the LDNR
- A further increase in US/NATO saber rattling and provocations
- The regime in Kiev openly planning for a war against Russia
Still, before looking at each one of these threats, I think that we need to first look at what the Zelenskii presidency has meant to the Ukraine. To make a long story short, many (most?) Ukrainians are now realizing two things: first Zelenskii made many promises and kept none of them and, second, Zelenskii is even worse than Poroshenko (which is hard to believe or even imagine, but such is the sad truth). Early on, it did appear that Zelenskii might bring some real “change we can believe in”, the main one being that he would take action against the various Nazi death squads and open real negotiations with the Donbass. Neither of those actually happened. Zelenskii is clearly terrified of the political and military power of the nationalists and far from forcing the Ukronazis to abide by the rule of law, Ze comprehensively caved in to their agenda.
It is not my purpose today to analyse in detail what Zelenskii did or did not do, I will simply summarize it all by saying that Zelenskii was all talk and no action. Literally, he has completely neglected the many crises which have plagued the Ukraine since the so-called “revolution of dignity”. What he did do is preside over a sharp increase in the scope and magnitude of suppression of free speech (more about that below). He also tightened laws against the Russian language. And, of course, Ukrainian Su-27s escorted US B-1Bs along the border between Russia and the Ukraine (makes me wonder if these Ukrainian pilots have any honor or dignity left! But no, they are just servants, that’s all, meek servants of their overseas masters). These are just a few examples of purely political actions which are “for show only” but which do absolutely nothing to actually address any real problem.
A perfect example of this “all talk no action” approach was how Ze dealt with the COVID pandemic in the Ukraine. First, opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk and Vladimir Putin met in Moscow and came up with a plan to help the Ukraine deal with the COVID pandemic: Russia would hand over her vaccine-development technologies to the Ukraine’s only advanced pharmaceutical company which could then produce Sputnik-V for the needs of the Ukrainian population first, and then for export. Considering that neither the EU nor the US has any inclination to offer vaccines to the Ukraine, and considering that the Ukraine has zero chances of developing its own vaccine, this solution would seem a no-brainer. But not in the ugly Banderastan the Ukronazis created on the ashes of the real Ukraine. Instead, the Ukrainian authorities announced that they would be getting their vaccines from China. There were only two problems with this “solution”: 1) the Chinese vaccine is only about 50%+ effective and 2) the money allocated to this purchase was immediately stolen and has now disappeared (it is being investigated, of course, but we all know how such “investigations” end). However, with all the hysterical anti-Russian propaganda of the Ukrainian Nazis, it was quite unthinkable for them to accept anything Russian publicly, including a vaccine (away from the public eye, the Ukraine still purchases a lot of things from Russia, including energy). Russia is, after all, a fake “Rus” populated by Ugro-Mongols (not “pure Slavs” like the Ukrainians imagine themselves to be), it is “Putin’s Mordor” and, last but not least, Russia is the official “aggressor-country”, how can a proud Ukie nationalist accept *anything* from this demonic country, even if this saves his life?
Besides, Ze personally explained that Sputnik-V has not been properly tested and that he did now want to turn the Ukrainian people into “guinea pigs” (apparently, he and his advisors are too dumb to read The Lancet; either that, or they don’t mind their own people dying as long as the priorities of political discource are upheld). As a result, while normal Ukrainians are denied any possibility of vaccination, wealthy Ukrainians are already organizing special trips to Russia to get vaccinated (US diplomats in Moscow are also getting the Russian vaccine).
As a result of this kind of ideology-driven “policies”, the Ukraine is now begging the West for any vaccine (even the clearly dangerous ones!). In response, the US gave the Ukraine a refrigerator (presumably to keep any future vaccines properly refrigerated). As for the Ukrainian medical infrastructure it is, just like the rest of the Ukraine’s infrastructure, in shambles. In fact, it was in shambles long before the COVID pandemic. All the pandemic did was to make things worse and reveal the truth to the rest of the world.
Furthermore, the COVID pandemic is hardly the only medical crisis facing the Ukraine: with a crumbling infrastructure, demoralized, demotivated and underpaid Ukrainian MDs who work in terrible conditions (many have emigrated, many to Russia, by the way), and no funds to deal with anything (the Ukraine is broke and is barely keeping one nostril above water by means of western loans). This situation is similar to the one Russia faced in the 90s during the “blessed times of democracy and freedom”, as seen by the West, and the “nightmare of the 90s”, as seen by most Russians.
It would not be honest to say that Ze did not try to deal with these problems at all. He did something: he ordered a massive crackdown against the opposition. These measures included banning, by executive order, the last three (rather moderate) opposition TV channels, by charging a Ukrainian blogger who lives in Spain with, I kid you not, “high treason” and by imposing sanctions on several opposition figures, beginning by Medvedchuk. And just to clarify – none of this was done legally or even in a vaguely lawful manner (how can a country impose sanctions on its own citizens? And without any judicial review!) . As expected, the US Embassy in Kiev gave these repressive measures their full and enthusiastic support. After all, according to Uncle Shmuel, this is all about “countering Russian disinformation”. In sharp contrast, the Ukranian public immediately understood what this meant (the Russian language Internet has also been blocked in the Ukronazi Banderastan, as are Russian social networks, books, art, music, etc.).
Like the typical imperial satrap that he is, Ze now rules almost exclusively by executive orders, always backed by the “muscle” of the Ukrainian “security services” (which, in reality, are the typical kind of absolutely corrupt third world “secret police” which the regular citizens are fearful of, but which those connected to the regime can always use as their personal terror squads; the Ukie “SBU” really reminds me of the kind of death squads I remember from Latin America in the 70s and 80s, say like this one).
Of course, the main reason for this crackdown on free speech can be found in the dramatic loss of popularity of Ze himself, but also because the arguments of the opposition are now becoming more popular, giving the opposition a sense of confidence. Alas, this confidence might not be warranted.
Let’s take the most famous Ukrainian opposition party, the “Opposition Platform for Life” abbreviated (in Russian) “OPZZh”. In the 2019 elections the OPZZh did very well, it came in as the 2nd party in the Rada after the “People’s Servant” party of Ze. That is true. But what is often forgotten is that OPZZh came in 2nd with only 13.05% of the vote and, even more importantly, the OPZZh has already “maxed out” its electoral potential. Why? Because this party is perceived by most Ukrainians as being pro-Russian and most Ukrainians are not pro-Russian at all. Many decades of anti-Russian and nationalist propaganda, from the Krushchev years up to today, combined with a massive and sustained Ukronazi propaganda aired by western radio stations and media, all have left their devastating impact on the self-perception and ethos of the Ukrainian people. This is especially true since the Ukraine lost both Crimea and the Donbass, which were strongholds of anti-Nazi political opposition to the Ukronazi regime. I just don’t see regions like Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk or Zhitomir ever giving a majority vote to the OPZZh, even if southern and eastern regions might. So while the OPZZh might get some more votes (say, in the southern regions of the Ukraine), it will probably never be enough to turn this self-described opposition party into a ruling one.
There used to be an alliance of opposition parties called “Opposition Block” which brought together various opposition movements and parties. Now its members have gone either to the OPZZh or founded their own sub-groups (like the 2019 version of the Opposition Block). The former Party of Regions has dissolved in abject shame, its clueless leaders mostly in exile, but a few strong and outspoken opposition figures did come from it, including Elena Bondarenko and Elena Lukash. I should also mention the name of Vadim Rabinovich, a very outspoken and articulate politician (whose main political liability is his Israeli passport).
All-in-all, there are definitely some interesting political figures in the opposition, but they do not, in my opinion, represent a viable option for the Kremlin and, frankly, they aren’t much of an option for the Ukraine either.
Still, for the Kremlin to put all its political eggs into the OPZZh basket does, to some degree, make sense. Why? Well, for one thing, OPZZh is the only major political force in the Ukraine willing to openly talk with the Kremlin. So you can say that the only option is by definition also the best one. But while Putin and the Russians are going through all the right motions with the Ukrainian opposition figures, I strongly suspect that the Kremlin knows what the real score is, and that this score looks very grim indeed. Simply put: there is no personality in the Ukraine capable of rallying enough people to finally kick Ze and his gang out of power. Why? Mostly because the Ukraine is ideologically and morally bankrupt. Well, financially, too, of course. But the main problem is that the only people with a vision for the future of the Ukraine are the Nazis. Nobody else is offering any halfway credible vision for the future of the Ukraine. Of course, this makes sense because the tragic truth is that the Ukraine has no future. None whatsoever. After all, it is an artificial country, created by Lenin and Krushchev, whose national identity is solely based on hatred (see here and here) and whose constituent parts have mutually exclusive ideologies, beliefs and views.
It is quite remarkable that while under Poroshenko’s rule the opposition was persecuted both legally and illegally (unpunished murders of political dissidents happened in large numbers, nobody in the “democratic West” had anything to say about them!), Ze has actually gone one step further: he is clearly determined to declare that the entire opposition is composed not of Ukrainian opponents, but of traitors to the Ukraine, “Putin agents” and secret supporters of the “Russian world”. Hence, the latest series of crackdowns, lawsuits and administrative persecutions.
As always, the West only makes things worse. How? Well, since Biden
won stole the US presidential election, the US-run comprador ruling classes in Europe are scrambling to show that they are just as anti-Russian as the new administration. That, in turn, encourages the regime in Kiev to show more anti-Russian aggression (in whatever form, does not really matter). This “change of tone” is immediately noticed in the Donbass and results in an escalation of the political rhetoric (and military “incidents”) in the LDNR. That, in turn, impacts the Russian political scene and resulted in things like the trip of Margarita Simonian, the editor-in-chief of the television news network RT and of the state-owned international news agency Rossiya Segodnya, to Donetsk were she publicly declared “Russia, mother, take the Donbass back home!” (“Россия, матушка, забери Донбасс домой!”). Of course, she insisted that this was her private opinion and that she was not speaking in any official capacity, which is true. But what is also true is that Simonian is a popular figure in Russia, and her words were immediately discussed on all the talkshows, VK, blogs and all the major TV channels. Everybody understands that while she was speaking in her own name, she was acutely aware of, shall we say, the “mood” in the Kremlin (and of the Russian street!) and that her saying that now will have a noticeable impact on the Russian political discourse, both the official onе and on the Russian Internet (Runet). This is a potentially very dangerous sequence:
- The USA ups its anti-Russian rhetoric.
- The Europeans immediately follow suit and also escalate.
- The Ukronazis also immediately follow suit and also escalate.
- The LDNR republics warn of escalation and increase pressure on Russia.
- The Russians react to all of the above and harden both their rhetoric and actions.
- The West feels like it has to show its military power, but can only do so symbolically.
- Russia uses actual military capabilities to oppose western symbolic actions.
- The West accuses Russia of military escalation.
- The Russians officially declare that the West is 1) non-agreement capable (old argument) and 2) hypocritical beyond words.
- The West then uses its “soft” (political) power to harass Russia, only further making things worse (see #1 above)
This is exactly the kind of open-ended escalation which can result in a major cataclysm. As for Ukronazis politicians, they flood the air with triumphant declarations about their “new” missile “Neptune” which they could use to destroy the Crimean Bridge (see here or here for a good laugh!). Of course, the Russians know that the “new” Neptune missile is just a modernization of the old, 1980s era, Soviet Kh-35 missile, a subsonic missile with a 145kg (320lbs) warhead. The original Kh-35 had a 130km (70nmi) range, which was bumped up to 300km (160nmi) in Russia in 2015. The “new” Neptune also has a 300km range. In plain English this means three things: 1) the Russian air defenses can easily shoot down this slow flying missile 2) a 145kg warhead can’t do any meaningful damage to a huge structure like the Crimea Bridge and 3) Kiev is still up to no good and dreams of a reconquista.
But that is not all! Kiev is also promising to 1) build a new naval base not only on the Black Sea coast, but also on the Sea of Azov and 2) they are now working with the UK to build up these capabilities. Best of all, the western and Ukrainian propaganda outlets are open declaring that this is a strategy to defeat Russia (for a good laugh, read this). The truth is this: nevermind the Sea of Azov, the entire Black Sea is now a de facto “Russian lake” and Russia has the means to destroy any ship sailing the Black Sea within minutes, everybody knows that, at least anybody with any military background. In case of conflict, the survival time of these two Ukrainian bases would be counted not even in minutes, but in seconds. Deploying any force so near to the Russian border is basically suicidal.
One more example of the kind of insanity which has taken over the Ukraine with Ze in power: believe it or not, but the Ze administration has explained that the Ukraine gave NATO the “authorization” to overfly Crimea. Again, this is such a self-evidently stupid idea that I won’t discuss it on its merits. All I want you to do is imagine hearing all that crazy stuff if you were a Russian decision maker: would you simply ignore these nutcases or would you take the needed measures to make sure that none of that ever happens. Even Lavrov recently quoted the famous Roman wisdom “si vis pacem, para bellum” which, considering that Lavrov is most definitely a “moderate” tells you all you need to know about Russian responses to all this insanity.
The sad truth is that Ze’s Ukraine is no more viable than Poroshenko’s was. In fact, I would argue that the Ukraine is cracking at all its seams and that the only solution left just to delay, but not prevent, a Somalia-like style collapse is to import everything from abroad: from the EU, of course, but also from Russia (especially energy) which continues to provide the Ukraine with energy, even if this is rarely advertised (especially in the Ukraine). The Ukrainian energy sector is in ruins, as is the Ukrainian agricultural sector (the “agrarian superpower” promise also failed to deliver; it reminds me of Krushchev’s “corn crusade”…). None of that is ever reported in the West (for a good laugh, see here, here or here) except buried deeply in some reports like this rare admission “The informal sector in Ukraine is estimated to account for a third of the country’s GDP, and GDP per capita (at purchasing power parity) is only 20% of the EU average”.
The reality of the collapse of the Ukraine is so serious that the international community has decided to provide COVID vaccines to the Ukraine through the COVAX program which Wikipedia defines as “the financing instrument that will support the participation of 92 low- and middle-income economies to access to COVID-19 vaccine funded by donors”. In fact, the decision has been made that the Ukraine will be amongst the first countries to benefit from this international aid program. Okay, in plain English this means this: since the Ukraine cannot produce a vaccine, and since the Ukraine has no money to purchase vaccines abroad, and since the epidemiological situation in the Ukraine (and in all the other poor countries) represents a real danger for developed and wealthy countries too, it only makes sense for the rich to inoculate the poor, if only to avoid being contaminated by them (yet another case of self-interest masquerading as charity).
The richer countries will have no option but to pay for the costs to inoculate those people who live in failed states and other indigent countries. Yet, even Ze himself had to admit that even this will not be enough. It sure looks to me like the US will peddle its worst vaccines (Pfizer) to the Ukrainians and still make a profit. Some opponents of the regime, like Anatolii Sharii (the blogger living in Spain and accused of “high treason”) suggested to do with the Russian vaccines what the Ukraine has already done with Russian energy: don’t buy it from Russia but, instead, let Russia sell her vaccines (Russia is the only country in the world with 3 tested and fully approved vaccines) to the EU which then can re-sell it to the Ukraine, thereby obfuscating the “aggressor-nation” origin of the vaccine from the public eye. This technique, called a “reverse”, is what the EU and the regime in Kiev came up with to avoid admitting the absolutely inadmissible fact that the Ukraine still only exists because Russia allows it to (if Russia was to cut off all ties with the Ukraine the latter would quickly collapse, if only because of a lack of energy).
But no country can live by “reversing” everything. Not only are “reversed” goods more expensive than the original ones (transportation costs money), but it’s not like the EU has enough energy or vaccines for itself. And while the Europeans have lied to the Ukrainians about pretty much everything and made innumerable promises about how the Ukraine will become “the next Germany” in the EU, the sad reality is that nobody in the EU gives a damn about the Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. EU politicians don’t even care about their own people, why should they care about anybody except themselves anyway? Remember, this is the “new EU” where the only truly “European values” left are greed, power and psychopathic hypocrisy. From now on when you think Europe, don’t think Henry Dunant (the founder of the Red Cross movement, long before Clara Barton who only founded the American Red Cross 18 years later) or J.S. Bach, but think Conchita Wurst: that is the new, Woke, face of Europe.
In fact, I would even argue that the *only* country in the world where people still *truly* care about the Ukraine and the Ukrainian people remains Russia. This idea is, of course, 100% pure crimethink which nobody in the West will ever admit to it. Sadly, there are plenty of signs indicating that the traditional love the Russian people had for the Ukraine is quickly being replaced by a strong sense of disgust.
In this highly unfavorable backdrop it is now also becoming increasingly impossible for the Ukrainian propaganda machine to conceal the scope and magnitude of the deep crisis affecting the country: the quickening pace of the collapse of the Ukrainian infrastructure is simply impossible to conceal. And does one conceal stuff like the severe shortages in goods and services? Or how do you conceal an electricity outage?
The Ukraine is facing a range of major problems which are unlikely to remain contained to the territory of the Ukraine. Things like crime, or a pandemic, or the rule of the mob are very hard to contain. Sooner or later these inevitably bleed over the border to the neighboring country which then, in turn, has to face the same threats. In theory, Russia, the US and the EU could get together and agree on an international rescue plan, but since the US and EU consider that they are playing a zero sum game against Russia, no western politician will ever openly advocate for a real collaboration with Putin’s Mordor. Putin recently declared that “why does everything revolve around the Nord Stream — 2? They want to make Russia pay for their geopolitical project “Ukraine”, that’s all. In fact, everything is quite primitive, everything is simple, we have long understood this, but this is the world in which we live”. Needless to say, Russia won’t agree to foot the bill for this disastrous experiment russophobic ethnogenesis, if only because she simply does not have the kind of reserves to pay for such a huge program. At most, Russia will continue to help the Donbass, and even in this case Russia (or the LDNR republics) could consider demanding reparations from Kiev and its western sponsors. Again, knowing how western arbitration courts work, that won’t happen either.
I don’t think that anybody seriously believes that the Donbass or Crimea will ever agree to return under Kiev’s rule, not de facto and not de jure. That is a given. Neither do I believe that the rump Ukraine is a viable entity. The only conclusion I can come to is this: a breakup of the Ukraine might be inevitable. In fact, such a breakup might even be desirable for all parties (except the russophobic warmongering ruling classes of the AngloZionist Empire who want to destroy Russia at any and all cost).
Just the other day, the Ukies attacked their favorite village target, Gorlovka, and killed 7 Donbass soldiers and wounded 6. That’s a very bad day in Donbass for the good guys. Some revenge has been taken. The 200s and 300s haven’t been confirmed yet. One report said 11 Ukies left the planet permanently.
What does this mean in the scheme of things? Gorlovka has never had one day since the war in Donbass started that it hasn’t been hit by artillery of any form the Ukies can muster. Mortars of all sizes, MLRS, tank fire, mobile artillery, you name it and they have fired it at the people of Gorlovka.
War crimes have been prepared and the target to prosecute is Porky.
Zelenski is next.
Obviously, Putin is hoping that Ukraine will splinter and that is when Russia will pick up the pieces it wants.
In the meanwhile, people are getting killed, near daily. The Ukie military has been improved. But that just means that there is no likelihood the Russians will act before the “right time”. If the Ukies do start an offensive, Russia has the legal right to go protect over 650,000 Russian passport holders in Donbass.
The waiting game is excruciating. The Ukie regime is criminal, corrupt, psychotic and as weak as any in the world. It depends for everything on the US. Joe Biden has a large piece of the corrupt action. And as long as the IMF, WB, Congress or EU give Kiev money, the regime has one more day in power. The question is when will that money stop?
The money will stop when the 20 million hectares of prime agricultural land are gobbled up – the action starts July 2021.
What remains to be finished up is the fracking in the eastern Yuzivka field, which will be an environmental disaster. It has accelerated with the ascent of Joe “Burisma” Biden, whose investigation was officially closed 1 month ago. Coincidence no doubt.
Beyond that, there’s not much remaining.
Current Aggregate Money Supply Growth(M3) is 28% per annum, putting the US Fed to shame. And the UAH is not a prime currency.
The money supply theory is actually a pretty useless tool as economics is now a questionable field. What’s more important is how many of all those dollars are in Americans hands, and this is not trackable.
In addition i’m not saying a 5 times increase in this latest 10 year period is not real and not a shame, it is, what’s worse is the rate of increase promised by todays administration dwarfs that of the past which only means we have to be approaching a dollar hyperinflationary environment and the consequences of recognizing that.
Clarification required as you are bringing in comments about the issuance of USD and the inflationary potential. That is a subject for another day and perhaps a different blogspot. The growth of M3 in Ukraine is 28% per annum. That puts it into the vertical stage of expansion. Numbers don’t lie and economics do matter especially when your currency is backed by the full faith and credit of the Ukrainian Government.
The only logical reason forestalling the move to Zimbabwification or a Weimar Germany like hyperinflation, is the fact that Uncle Shmuel is standing behind the curtain. Once he gets his collateral, the music stops.
“The money will stop when the 20 million hectares of prime agricultural land are gobbled up…”
It will be easy to secure legal title to that land, by the payment of dollars which Washington can print ad lib, without any backing.
The hard part will be getting them back to the USA.
“The waiting game is excruciating. ”
why are you complaining, that waiting game is grand chessmaster putin’s plan, right?
had he moved into ukraine in 2014, sure, maybe 100,000s deaths would have happened
but with his delay, he condemned 54 millions to slow painful rot
Two battalions of Spetsnaz airlifted into Kiev in 2014 would have been enough to eliminate the Ukranazi coup, but the Greatest Grandmaster Genius the Galaxy Has Ever Seen was too busy with overseeing the Sochi Olympics. What would the Imperialist States of Amerikastan and the Evil Union have done if Russia had actually invaded and defended its legitimate interests? Imposed sanctions?
Helping to protect the Russian speaking population in Ukraine through a hybrid war is one thing, but to hope for Russia to invade the entire Ukraine is very silly.
– First, the cost of a full invasion would be enormous. Wars are expensive and they cause casualties. Why should the Russian people pay with their children’s lives for the corruption of the Ukrainian government, their corrupt elite and corrupt society.
– Even if Russia were successful, the Ukrainian economy would not help Russia’s economy to be any stronger.
– The present state of affairs in Ukraine is acceptable to Moscow. A full-scale invasion could upset NATO. Moscow is playing a balancing act according to what they believe is in their best interest.
There are benefits in expanding Russia’s territory to include strategic areas and to include the Russian speaking population. However, there are also consequences.
Its a cost benefit analysis where the policy/decision makers have to consider the future of 150 million lives (plus and extra 45 million if you add the Ukraine). Decisions that we here on an online discussion forum lucky do not have to make.
You make the common fallacy of equating invasion and occupation. There would have been zero reason for Russia to occupy Ukranazistan in 2014; go in, overthrow the coup regime- against little chance of resistance from the disorganised Ukranazistan armed forces, most of whom would have deserted or defected- reinstall Yanukovych, who was still the legitimate president of Ukraine, and withdraw with the clear statement that if there were any more Maidans Russia would be back and this time to stay. This is the Chinese model of war, and is highly effective: go in, make your point, get out. No occupation to drain your resources. Now if Russia does have to invade it will however have to occupy the resulting ruin, because there is no authority to take it over. That is all.
You’re making assumptions based on a false sense of Russia’s capabilities. In 2014, the majority of the Ukies were anti-Russian, and if Russia tried something like that you suggested, chances are that it would quickly escalate and Russia would be internationally brandished as a foreign aggressor who stepped into suppress democratic protests. Not to mention that there is a real possibility that Russian forces would’ve been embroiled in a prolonged conflict in which the Ukies would’ve been able to give a bloody nose to Russia.
“Russia would be internationally brandished as a foreign aggressor who stepped into suppress democratic protests.”
You don’t say! After all, Russia was not called a foreign aggressor invading a democratic country in 2014 and sanctioned, was it? It wasn’t, right?
“…there is a real possibility that Russian forces would’ve been embroiled in a prolonged conflict in which the Ukies would’ve been able to give a bloody nose to Russia.”
These would be the same “Ukies” who surrendered Crimea without a shot and whom the Donbass armies wiped the floor with at Donetsk Airport and Debaltsevo?
“These would be the same “Ukies” who surrendered Crimea without a shot and whom the Donbass armies wiped the floor with at Donetsk Airport and Debaltsevo?”
100’000 deaths and then what? Inherit a 54 millions mess of which halve will shoot at you in the back at every opportunity? Or is there a “grand plan”? The fact is only the Ukrainians can save their country. All Russia can do is offer its help when they’re ready to reclaim it.
Q and Anon
Both big fat fakes
The Hollywood scenario!
Vladimir Vladimirovic is (and was not) the president of the Ukraine. While it can be painful to see a country formed by the same people as your fellow citizen, albeit brainwashed into hating Russia, it is still better than to risk expensive consequences for Russia if he ordered a real invasion.
Even not thinking about the loss of lives for Russian soldiers (and Ukrainian civilians), than he would have to keep the country occupied while most inhabitants would become even more justified in their hatred for Russia, fully rebuild the Ukraine while divesting money from Russia, lose every negotiation potential from other former Soviet countries, lose Syria, probably lose also most of the mutual support from China, etc etc.
If the Ukrainians decide for suicide the easiest that Russia can do is wait until the collapse and then try to take the useful bits, welcome the population not hostile to Russia and slowly rebuild it after they realise themself that without Russia they have no future…
if Putin ordered invasion as you suggested he would have fed large tumor that could then expand to other neighbouring regions of Russia …
As far as Janukovic, he was a moron and a coward and definitely he was never pro Russia. He played with the pro russian sentiment of donbass and Crimea to get elected and turned again to Russia at the last moment (after trying to become the west new whore) just because Russian offer was much better than the western one. Keeping him with force as the head of that failed state would have been another mistake.
For a truly depressing read, see this interview:
The matter of allowing foreign sales of Ukr. land (much of it fertile chernozem) is the worst thing.
Ukr. is done, when foreigners buy it all up.
Zelensky’s recent rapid-fire repressions are seen as a good thing among the Rada-SBU-National Corp-Jewish Oligarchy.. They continue their plunder and rampage while the EU & US look on, & the wheels fall off of Ze’s mule-cart of a dysfunctional “administration”, everything blamed on the aggressor Putin..
Having been denied the latest IMF tranche, it is difficult to see any hope for the UA people at this point; they can’t eat the weapons supplied by the US to fight the aggressor, and can’t conduct any business in their native Russian language, or pay for communal services which have sky-rocketed this winter..
The strana ua.com site offers a full range of daily topics; many of which seem absurd to an outsider, but are normal in Ukraine..
I do not understand how a Jewish comedian came to be President of a country where armed nationalist militias (much less “ukronazis”) are so powerful.
Dude, read “A Century of War” by Engdahl, or “The Chamberlain-Hitler Collusion” by Finkel and Leibovitz, to understand the role of Anglo-Zionazi-Capitalism in fomenting discord, promoting resource wars, and globally promoting fascists as “our Bulwark against Communism”.
I’ve also found Nikolai Strarikov and Antony Sutton enlightening for views from Russian and Anglo-American perspectives, respectively.
Obviously, it’s a Jewish joke. Like most such, it’s rather less funny to those on the receiving end, but what would you?
The militias are powerful on the level of the street. Above them are the oligarchs, mafiosi basically, many of them Jewish. Zelensky was groomed for his role, and prepared for it with his TV sit-com “Servant of the People” which showed that a simple, regular, honest guy could pull a country out of corruption. Zelensky’s actual TV station boss was an oligarch named Kolomoisky, who put this plan together to seize power, using Zelensky as a front man, so as to add money to his pile. This wacky plan succeeded because the Ukraine people were so discouraged and cynical, and had no faith left in the politicians that were already there.
Thanks for the reply.
“and far from forcing the Ukronazis to abide by the rule of law, Ze comprehensively caved in to their agenda.”
Are you sure which is the horse and which is the tail that follows? Have you forgotten that the Germanazis of 1920s were financed, armed and encouraged to war against Russia by the same Anglo-Zionazi-Capitalists who finance, arm and encourage anti-Russian Ukronazis in the 2020s?
The time is getting closer when Russia will has to take entire Novorussia, and to kick out West from entire Ukrainian Black Sea Coast.
But Russia still has not enough economic strength for such action.
But Russia will be forced to do that sooner or later.
When, it is difficult to say.
But till 2030 for sure.
This Ukraine cannot survive.
Special problem is this Ukrainian nationalism. Every radical nationalism is self-destructive and Ukrainian radical nationalism is the worst and the most self-destructive in Europe and probably in the world
I think that Ukraine as we know it will be dismantled…unfortunately.
Divided in at least three independent parts.
There is not another solution
West has destroyed Ukraine.
The west has destroyed the west, I think it was destiny, I think it was Gods plan, and it appears to be a no return situation, you heard of being 86’d, the west just got 94d.
Once again Russia did not retaliate to EU ‘sanctions’..where is the ”prepare war if you want peace” Lavrov?
7 years of weakness(Donbass, Syria,Oponents, ngo, russiagate, mh 17..), why do think they always double down(operation Navalny prepared 18 months ago by both MI6/BND for the CIA), read MI6 leaks.
Their real target is Germany, Russia is a prextext, they will never ever dare to attack nuclear RF.But it is easy to declare war to Germany(economic war of course as the country is a colony and occupied by the yanks/nato).Sanction Russia,but the most touched by these sanctions is Germany(then Austria, Italy..)
Destroy NS2 means destroy slowly german economy, rackett Germany to buy two or three times more expensive US unreliable gas, and even pay for the construction of LNG ports billions).
And much worse sanctions are coming soon from the D C Clique.
Even Soros the evil on earth(big Ukie fan and sponsor), does not want Navalny anymore.
Nobody believes this Navalny charade anymore.This is just an ‘escalation leading to casus belli’ pretext.
“… most Ukrainians are not pro-Russian at all … Ukraine is ideologically and morally bankrupt. Well, financially, too, of course”. I think that Ukraine is finished. As the old saying goes, it is a corpse which is still showing signs of life. Analysts have since 2017 been stating that it will break up into three parts.
The Saker has said that most Ukrainians are not pro-Russian at all. Well, when it comes to Ukraine, The Saker is certainly a bigger expert than I can possibly be. However, one should take into consideration the fact that Ukraine is an artificial creation. The actual name of the country means “frontier region”, ie. it was the frontier region of Russia. The name is derived from the Slavic word “krayina”, which was used to create the name of “Ukrayina”, becoming the “Ukraine” of today. Simply put, Ukraine was part of Russia and Ukrainians are all of Russian origin, the exception being western Ukraine, the former Galicia, which has mixed blood and which originally was not part of Russia. Ukrainians today may not be pro-Russian, but the question which needs to be asked is to what extent are they anti-Russian, the neo-Nazis from western Ukraine excluded.
Prior to 2014 and the Western sponsored coup d’etat against Yanukovich, the population of Ukraine was some 50 million. However, by December of 2017, 4 million Ukrainians had fled to the West and 4.4 million to Russia, which says plenty. What is the population of Ukraine today ? Nobody can say precisely, because no census was taken after Maidan. Analysts are using sales figures for commodities to – unofficially – calculate the present population of the country. According to some, it is 35 million, while according to others it is 25 million. According to one analyst, Ukraine was some three years ago losing 100.000 people per month. This might be an exaggeration, but it is a fact that the country is losing people, and a day will come when it won’t be able to function any more. That’s when the break up comes into play (if not sooner). And how would this break up look ?
The eastern part of Ukraine, the Donbass, will certainly rejoin Russia. It already is not part of Ukraine. The western part, the former Galicia, will become an area of contention between Poland, Hungary and Romania. The central part, which includes Kiev and the Ukrainian coast, might briefly be “independent”, but it will inevitably rejoin Russia.
Ukraine is today paying the price of allowing its self to become a Western banana republic. In fact it is both a banana republic and a feudal entity, run by oligarchs, the modern robber barons who are backed by neo-Nazis whom they finance. Zelenskii is nothing more than a clown controlled by an oligarch. The country is collapsing economically, financially and morally. These facts alone will sober up the population and make it look towards Russia. Not even the neo-Nazis can prevent this.
About two years ago the EU has stated that it has no more money to give to the country. Even if it had, it knows perfectly well that the money would be embezzled by oligarchs. And the US ? As far as money goes, it will follow the EU. As far as politics go, it will continue to use the country for anti-Russian policies. As the old saying goes, it will fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian. However, before this happens, the country will almost certainly break as I have described above. Who can prevent this ?
I do not see any future for Ukraine and Belarus but to rejoin Russian Federation.
Problem is their irrational nationalism but that nationalism will also lose momentum.
Similar to republics of former Yugoslavia. To survive they should form some confederation or some flexible federation.
Those peoples will die out if they do not make another Yugoslavia.
But radical nationalists from all sides would now kill me for this words.
But it does not change a fact that they are doomed in their so called independent states.
The Serbs are probably as thrilled about going back to Yugoslavia as the Crimeans are about going back to Yu-kraine.
We can have friendly country relations though.
I did not say that Yugoslavia will be again. Nobody wants it.
What I say is that they were all doomed after they destroyed Yugoslavia.
And it is fact. Without Yugoslavia they are all pathetic colonies without future.
But they all chose radical nationalism. All of them.
So be it.
My Ukrainian grandmother liked Russia, had a strong dislike for Turks as they used to raid into the Ukraine to rape, pillage, burn and torture. Russia (and the Cossacks) stopped that. The generation that came after her hated the Russians.
Did she say why ?
My dream seeing Lwow and Volyn with whole Galicia under our control again so we can exterminate those Bandera fans there. Don‘t mind much bordering mainland Russia, those Bandera fans are cancer for Europe.
@Serbian girl, Serbias biggest mistake ever was aggreing to form a union with Croats who were threatened by Italy and other South Slavs and taking whole Kosovo from Ottomans 1912 when it was already majority Albanian. Kosovo always drained you out economically and dragged you massively down in every other department.
You lost double digit billions every year to keep Kosovo floating, something the Europeans and Americans are doing it instead. There was never a profit from holding on Kosovo. Nothing good comes out from there.
Also Croats just killed you around and then when you tried to get revenge for the Serbian Holocaust you saw your people being expelled from Croatia. You guys should have let Croatia get annexed by Italy instead making a country with them.
The correct name of “Kosovo” is Kosovo and Metohija, which holds 1.300 Serbian Orthodox churches and monasteries. The Albanians became a majority in Kosovo and Metohija during Ottoman rule. The region was always Serbian and will again be Serbian. At the moment the US has Camp Bondsteel in the Province, built after NATO attacked the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999 without declaration of war. That Camp will not stay there for ever, bearing in mind the US Empire is slowly collapsing.
Military Camp Bondsteel will stay in Kosovo as long as America exist as a super-power.
For long long time
Albanians are under American protection.
Bosniak Muslims also, but however, significantly less than Albanians.
Why Americans chose Albanians …I do not know. Maybe they see Serbs as some kind of Russian agents so Albanians as a something opposite to Serbs
Maybe, I am not sure
What I know is that only two ethnic groups in ex Yugoslavia are really ANTI-RUSSIAN.
Kosovo Albanians and Bosniak Muslims.
Just to add one thing
Bosniak Muslims are anti-russian but only verbally …they would not be ready to go to fight Russians for American interests.
They are anti-russian because of their anti-Serbian and anti-Ortodhox sentiment
But Kosovo Albanians are extremely and militantly anti-russian. Many of them would be ready to go to fight against Russians if Americans start war with Russia.
“But Kosovo Albanians are extremely and militantly anti-Russian. Many of them would be ready to go to fight against Russians if Americans start war with Russia”. I can assure you that Albanians are terrified of Russians. They fear nobody more than Russians. I cannot see them fighting Russians, ever.
Kosovo is rich in mineral resources, especially gold. The Western powers broke up Yugoslavia, in part at least, to get a hold of the gold and other minerals. As for the cost, perhaps it is another expression of corporate “socialism” where the US and NATO taxpayers pay for the costs of occupying Kosovo while the banksters in London and New York reap the profits from the Gold mines.
If you want to have fun keep an eye on the comments that will follow the publication on Unz Review.
After reading this clear analysis, it seems to me that Ukraine is getting the position it had under german occupation during ww2. A sort of Reichskommissariat reloaded, proudly delivering expendable „Hiwis“, very cheap working force and agricultural products to the „Reich“. The main difference with ww2: besides Donbas, no partisans, no resistance movement, no ideas of liberation are here to save at least honour and name of the country.
This neofascist-run no-country with no-future is like a big black hole in the middle of the European continent, spreading conflict and instability in all directions. The criminal responsability of Washington and his EU-vassals in escalating the crisis is out of discussion. Moskow stays back and waits the enemy to make the first step…how long yet? Is „Fall Ukraine“ going to be the detonation spark of the world war to come?
I see Navalny’s in the process of being dumped.
They probably have some other puppet lined up since this one didn’t work out as expected, and therefore had to be put in the dustbin.
Found him. ArtemiPanarin.
Ukraine is now the poorest country in Europe. It’s demographic problems are manifest. Its population was approx 51 million in 1991, currently the population is appox 41 million, and is still falling – which means the Ukraine has lost 10 million people. These are mostly young people or anyone capable of doing any type of work. Unemployment stands at roughly 10% and up to 100,000 people per month leave the country for a better life, or maybe just to find gainful employment in Russia and Poland. The fertility rate if 1.2 which is below the population growth rate (which should be 2.1). It’s trade figures are permanently negative and its bonds are below investment grade, (in the trade this is called ‘Junk Bonds). This is a country with absolutely no future. It is simply descending into a failed state a descent which seems irreversible – so much for the revolution of dignity.
The biggest export from Ukraine is surrogate motherhood.
I see no downsides to allowing the Ukranazis to openly rule Ukranazistan. For one thing it will make it harder and harder for the Imperialist States of Amerikastan and the Evil Union to support the Nazi entity*. For another Nazis, worldwide, have always been incredibly poor rulers, because Nazism is essentially built on the supposition that every problem is the fault of someone else – an ethnic or religious minority, a neighbouring nation, an imaginary transnational conspiracy – and that if only they can be eliminated, all said problems will disappear. If Ukranazistan wants war with Russia (extremely unlikely, but posturing is safe) it will be smacked flat, and even the neoliberal Putinist regime will not be able to exercise “restraint ” if that happens (if it tries it will be couped by Russian patriots). I am personally certain that the Putinist regime would allow Donbass to be overrun if necessary, but that is increasingly an impossible stance since the Russian public will no longer tolerate it. Therefore the Ukranazis really have no military options that do not end in their own destruction…unless they can haul in the NATOstani war machine to fight for them. I do not think even Bidet’s owners, Nuland, or Killary Clinton have any intention of committing suicide for the greater glory of the Nazis of Banderastan.
Again, all that does not preclude posturing, constant low grade sub threshold hemorrhaging of Novorossiya, and continued provocative behaviour on the border that compels Russian defensive reactions, which exposes those reactions to the Amerikastani Empire (just as those B1 flights very successfully managed to do). If Putinist regime “restraint ” had been abandoned in 2014, we wouldn’t have this situation now.
*Ukranazistani Nazism is so overt that even professional anti Russian warmonger propagandist Jihadi Julian Röpcke of “Bild” had to pretend that their flying Nazi symbols was because of their “sense of humour “. The more overt they get, the better.
Is this important?
KIEV, February 23. /TASS/. Ukraine withdrew from the agreements on civil aviation and the use of airspace signed within the framework of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The corresponding decree was signed by the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky on Tuesday, according to his official website. It was specified that Ukraine is withdrawing from the agreement on civil aviation and the use of airspace signed on December 25, 1991, and from the airspace agreement dated May 15, 1992. Earlier, in May 2018, Ukraine stopped participating in the work of the statutory bodies of the commonwealth, and its representation at the statutory bodies of the CIS was closed. In the same year, Kiev began withdrawing from cooperation agreements within the CIS.
Feb 22 is date of the coup in 2014. Feb 25-27 is Purim. Purim date is a common time for war fare in the “free” west in the past 30 years. The next few days we will see if this comes to past. That is what all that is about.
”But the main problem is that the only people with a vision for the future of the Ukraine are the Nazis. Nobody else is offering any halfway credible vision for the future of the Ukraine.”
In fact, the Ukronazis are long past their sell-by date. Their ”credibility” was utterly destroyed 7 years ago as Crimea was lost. Evicting and murdering the Russian population along with letting NATO grab the naval base in Sevastopol were the very tasks they had been assigned. Ever since, these garbage specimina are of no use to anybody. Most worthless Western bootlickers on the planet, LOL.
Yes, the word “credible” should not come anywhere near the u-nazis. They seem more like deluded psychos, destructive in their ignorance and pointless fervor.
What Saker describes seems to be a “zuswang” of sorts. Unlike chess, however, the “table” is vast, global, so a pseudo-zuswang, a local manifestation of a “zero-solution”. This suggest that the “solution” lies elsewhere and in the indirect strategy. Thus far Russia has mostly followed the indirect, which is almost always the best, strategy.
I agree with Saker’s assessment.
It seems to me, and has seemed so for several years, that the “solution” for Ukraine/Russia will be available when the imperial force is discontinued in the affected area. In this instance the area being Ukraine.
The imperial withdrawal can only occur by Policy changes in the Empire…the Empire, so gloriously inspired by losers of senile and incompetent character, has lost industrial base, social cohesion, consent to govern (they have to steal elections now) and military supremacy (Martyanov)…and the decline continues. Weimar level inflation is said to be proximate, with unknown but sure deleterious effect on stability and, thus in time, Policy…
Pretty much the solution of the Imperial crime in Ukraine will be forced by circumstance and will occur in the halls of imperial power…Ukraine will be abandoned, in the fullness of time, due to necessity. It will be too expensive a project. Empire will need the treasure and troops to keep order and protect the Quisling Throne (I prefer Quisling to Comprador). Everyone knows that the Capitol of the Democracy is protected from the People by soldiers and razor wire, Quisling fits.
Then, naturally, many criminals will face arrest and trial, although ropes and lamp-posts are, as the great leader Bushie 41 said, always in the frame.
Of course regrettable military accidents may happen anytime and accelerate the imperial departure with attendant cost in blood. There are some indications implied by the desperation in the recent fraudulent election that an “end-game” involving unprovoked and massive attack on Russia is developing…. Suicidal, but suicides happen. It would end the Ukrainian problems, and the problem of Empire too.
Considering the general principle of equity between sovereigns one might expect that Ru may by indirect means, as it is doing now, hurry this process. One can also imagine more subtle means…in that matter Syria does come to mind. And as Ripper said in Strangelove, “two can play at that game” – violence does happen. Ships have accidents. People have accidents. Very sad.
And Empire too can delay it… (I wonder if “unexplained mechanical problems” may afflict NS2 when it is finished (ie sabotage). If that happens Germany comes closer to Russia? So I bet. see https://www.jstor.org/stable/4545767?seq=1 and https://military.wikia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Rapallo_(1922)
Withal, thanks, Saker.
‘The imperial withdrawal can only occur by Policy changes in the Empire…the Empire, so gloriously inspired by losers of senile and incompetent character, has lost industrial base, social cohesion, consent to govern (they have to steal elections now) and military supremacy (Martyanov)…and the decline continues.’
Nothing has changed with the election of the Democrats and Biden. Bombing of Syria as begun. Who is the real enemy? The swamp or some call it the ‘deep state’. Here I dwell on some of the greatest past successes and look forward to some of thier future operations that will benefit the USA as a whole and some arms manufacturers specifially. What a great help to business and the common people.
So far as Ukraine is concerned if there exists the possibility of making a dollar …
Thanks Saker, for an excellent update and unfortunately also creepy feeling.
All kinds of comparisons are jumping into my mind. Funny that the late Brzezinski was named (‘late’, did you get that Kissinger, who must be something like 130 years old by now). I’ve read his nasty Chessboard work. It’s not exactly literature, the graphic contributions look like a bad power point presentation of a high school kid, and it convinced me even more of one thing: the western world is run by lunatics, most of them living in the past, in his case he is just refueling Mackinder.
If I remember correctly, Brzezinski was writing enthousastically that the Ukraine was some kind of heartland of Russia, and it was essential to ‘grab’ it to ‘put pressure’ on Russia (or something like that).
Ok, the doorbell rings. Someone at the door, representing a company called ‘reality’.
In the nineties Russia was on it knees, and the west had it in its nice knell (looting and such).
They blew it. Really blew it. Apparently wars for Eretz Israel were more important then, and they didn’t pay attention. Later on I guess, historians will describe it as one of the most important turning points in the history of our times.
What makes these lunatics think it will work out this time? Sanctions don’t work, they didn’t work out on Cuba for over more than half a century, all these Novichok stories (outside the MSM) just receive laughter, militarily they will be toast (they can’t even beat the Taliban in 20 years), by any nuclear threat a few Russian subs with multiple charged ICBM’s will submerge under the North Pole Ice (Yes Al Gore, it’s still there). Now what? Maybe some more trillions of dollars backed up by nothing might work?
The first time a US Airforce plane will emerge in the airspace of Crimea, I expect somewhat the same happening as when a high-tech drone emerged in the airspace of Iran: it was dryly shot down and that was it.
Let’s face it: I guess the Ukraine faces the same fate as Lybia. Sarkozy and his ilks got their way, and it’s a hell-hole now. The USA lately had the nerve to post via its embassy Christmas greetings, and got responses like ‘thank you for destroying our nation and bringing us ISIS’.
Sometimes I wonder. Not for a second I doubt the initial loyalty of US military sevicemen, but somewhere, somehow there must come a moment when they start to think ‘what the hell am I doing here’?
I may wish the same for western decision makers, but I fear the worst. They live in the past. The danger of looking behind constantly, is that you don’t see the tripping hazard before you. And the danger for us all, is that we may trip with them.
For regular Ukrainian people I may give just one advise: leave while you still can.
“Not for a second I doubt the initial loyalty of US military sevicemen, but somewhere, somehow there must come a moment when they start to think ‘what the hell am I doing here’?”
They are trying to survive in a nation that has engineered their economy so that there are very few job options for working class people. So they take the socialist free education/meals/clothing/shelter/pension that the US army offers. The guys who think/say that they are fighting commies and socialists are living a very commie/socialist lifestyle!
“For regular Ukrainian people I may give just one advise: leave while you still can.”
“Like the typical imperial satrap that he is, Ze now rules almost exclusively by executive orders…”
As a Britisher, I immediately think of Boris Johnson, who has been doing exactly that for almost a year. For 400 years the British have made a lot of fuss about their wonderful parliamentary system and the way it guarantees their liberties. But all that was necessary was for the government to shout “Virus!” and all the parliamentarians scuttled away like so many rats, to hide in their houses. (Under their beds, for all I know). Nothing has been seen of them since.
An important lesson for serious-minded revolutionaries… a few “medical experts” can accomplish more, faster, than the KGB and the Red Army combined.
For Kiev to announce that it is to build a naval base on the Sea of Azov sounds like the epitome of lunacy.
“The Sea of Azov is the shallowest sea in the world, with the depth varying between 0.9 and 14 metres (2 ft 11 in and 45 ft 11 in)… [I]n the bays, where silt has built up, the average depth is about 1 metre (3 ft). The sea bottom is also relatively flat with the depth gradually increasing from the coast to the centre”. – Wikipedia.
Nowhere in the Sea of Azov is more than about 200 km from Russian missile launchers and air bases. Even relatively slow missiles could cover that distance in 5-6 minutes; seriously transsonic missiles would take perhaps 90 seconds.
According to Wikipedia, the Ukrainian Navy boasts “1 frigate, 1 corvette, 4 landing craft, 1 minesweeper, 12 patrol boats and 18 Auxiliary Vessels”. It has a few submarines, but the Sea of Azov is definitely not the place to deploy a submarine; in most parts it would have a choice between staying on the surface or running aground. In some places this choice would disappear, as it would run aground regardless.
The Ukrainian Navy experienced a rather drastic slimming diet in 2014, when several of its ships preferred to stay in Crimea rather than return “home”. It still has, according to Wikipedia, two Krivak III frigates which draw 4.6 metres or about 15 feet – allowing them to manoeuvre relatively freely in deeper parts of the Sea of Azov.
That leaves only the small issue of getting out of the Sea of Azov and back in. Of course that can be done only by passing under the bridge, which requires permission from Russia.
But there is still a glimmer of hope. The US Navy has terminated its “Littoral Combat Ship” program in disgust, the ships proving not only to be unsuitable for any real missions, but extremely poorly constructed and apt to break down at any time or place.
Maybe goo ol’ Joe Biden will kindly donate the LCS fleet to Ukraine.
“The Sea of Azov is the shallowest sea in the world, with the depth varying between 0.9 and 14 metres”
Hey, don’t underestimate the Ukrainian secret and lethal canoo fleet. It has been whispered, mainly in the USA, that the honourable mr. Shoigu has sleepless nights how to cope with that threat ;-)
(really, the lunatics have taken over the asylum)
USA has recently delivered to Ukraine’s Navy 84 inflatable boats (and 20 humvees) ”to help Ukraine defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity”. They certainly can navigate in the shallow waters of the Sea of Azov.
‘Even Lavrov recently quoted the famous Roman wisdom “si vis pacem, para bellum”…’
Which, I believe, translates roughly to “Talk to me or talk to Shoigu”.
”The only conclusion I can come to is this: a breakup of the Ukraine might be inevitable. In fact, such a breakup might even be desirable /…/”
The breakup of this so-called ”state” is a given already from its waning population stats. Soros, in case he and his associates want to preserve the pile of rubbish which is Ukraine, will have to create a massive influx of people there from the Global South. Quite a backhanded compliment to the Ukros, to put it mildly. As for the desirability of its breakup, what mustn’t happen is Europe’s greedy hyena chunking off any Ukro territory bordering Russia thus whetting the hyena’s appetite to (once again) ”save Europe” with the usual incredible, awe-inspiring results. Russia, I think, should incorporate the East of the erstwhile Ukraine and, most importantly, settle these territories with ethnic Russians. The Ukronazi backwater in Galicia could be given to Poland, which will have to pacify it accordingly.
“Things like crime, or a pandemic, or the rule of the mob are very hard to contain. Sooner or later these inevitably bleed over the border to the neighboring country which then, in turn, has to face the same threats”.
Which is obviously what the Western rulers are hoping for.
Between the “pandemic” and the “vaccines”, it is not clear that the latter are preferable to the former. Little vials of “vaccine” may, after all, contain whatever the manufacturer (or someone else subsequently) chooses to put into them. One liquid looks much like another. Moreover, of course, these “vaccines” have been a few months in development, whereas safety demands at least five years. And scientists have been striving to create vaccines against coronaviruses for at least 70 years, with utter lack of success.
One scenario that occurs to me – not that I say it is very likely – is that the West might give Ukraine supplies of “vaccine” that spread a serious contagion, in the sincere hope that it gets into Russia and causes serious harm.
It’s worth remembering that Alastair Maclean’s novel “The Satan Bug” was published in 1962, and depicted the theft of two devastatingly dangerous biological toxins from an institution obviously modelled on Porton Down. For a novelist to know the details of such weapons, they would have had to be available for some time previously.
Thus we have evidence that the UK, at least, was ready to attack Russia with biological weapons over 60 years ago. It seems unlikely that such preparedness has slackened in the interim.
The IMF has been keeping Ukraine afloat economically since the Maidan coup in 2014, essentially providing grants in the form of supposed “loans”. They have run out of patience, even the infamous Atlantic Council ran a fairly scathing piece condemning Zelensky for failing to implement so-called anti-corruption measures & the usual “reforms” – what the AC really ranted about though was that Zelensky “will not listen”, i.e. English translation: will not take orders. I have been rather amused in the past to read on Unz commentaries by Anatoly Karlin, who positions himself as a Russian nationalist that has a critical disposition to what he identifies as nationalist discourse, he basically insists that projections of Ukraine’s inevitable collapse are totally wrong & amount to wishful thinking, Karlin claims to know that Ukraine has been doing well & its economic indicators are positive. I’m not sure he is saying that now, but he was, & it is this kind of counter-propaganda that actually has not helped the discourse on Ukraine at all. The West can not bank roll Ukraine anymore, the IMF are putting their foot down, & when the money stops Ukraine has had it – it is over. The Kremlin has known all along that this will happen, & I am sure they have something in mind in terms of contingencies & plans of action in the event the Ukrainian state begins to dissolve. It absolutely will, that Putin has been taking a somewhat more explicit position on the Donbass is indicative of this, & really it is simple, Russia should prepare to set up a security zone all along the Ukranian-Russian border – if the Ukro-Nazis attack, or if there is a general descent into chaos.
You get some good stuff in the Unz, for example there is someone known as the Saker who writes excellent articles. Anatoly Karlin, well you can take or leave him, though I usually just leave him.
The Saker writes this kind of article a couple of times a year. E.g., from 2015:
The Ukrainian economy is basically dead. There is nothing left to salvage, nevermind turn the tide and overcome the crushing economic crisis… Folks in the western Ukraine are already seriously considering demanding their own special autonomy status. As for Odessa with Saakashvili in charge and the daughter of Egor Gaidar as Deputy Governor, it will inevitably explode, especially since the USA officially pays their salaries.
What we are seeing today is not just a Ukrainian military which seems to have given up on the notion of reconquering Novorussia, it is also one which appears to be giving up on the notion of holding the country together. Right now, this is only affecting the Donbass, but pretty soon other regions are likely to follow suit, especially the south (Odessa, Nikolaev, Mariupol) which, by itself, could be wealthy and prosperous and which has no need whatsoever for Neo-Nazi rulers.
Etc. So, when are we getting the Odessan People’s Republic?
The moment the Putler finally decides he hasn’t signed up to eat LGBTQ++++ shit anymore. He is the main West-worshiping liberal left. The thing that makes him acceptable to most Russians is that he won’t sell Russia down the river and he seems to be a genuine patriot.
The West has to pray to god the Putler stays in power. If a real traditionalist/Duginist takes over you can expect things to heat up very fast. It’s kind of a game of who dies first: The mental illness that is liberalism that has esp. occupied the minds of Russian whamen or the forces of good and morality in form of traditionalism.
No question in my funny little mind that this is absolutely correct. The wheels are really coming off in the slow motion train wreck that is Ukraine, so the only option for the Kiev regime is, I fear, an attempt to retake the breakaway regions to stave off the end (think of the Argentine junta and the Falklands war).
Russia finally seems to be taking some notice, and perhaps will begin formally putting the EU / OSCE / etc. on notice that if they don’t properly protect the people of the Donbass as they’re supposed to, then Russia will. Certainly, I do not believe they will sit idly by in the event that the UAF attempt a reconquista. It could all get very ugly indeed, but I don’t see any non-catastrophic way out for Ukraine, especially as the Kiev regime has no independent room for maneuver, being completely under the EU/US thumb.
”Simply put: there is no personality in the Ukraine capable of rallying enough people to finally kick Ze and his gang out of power. Why? Mostly because the Ukraine is ideologically and morally bankrupt.”
Bankrupt all along the line Indeed. Ukraine, when it formed part of the USSR, was a scientific and industrial powerhouse. Banderastani Ukraine is a deindustrialized sewer with a rapidly dwindling population plus its additional bonus of rampant Nazi fanaticism. By comparison, Yeltsin’s Russia looked almost sane. Well, the brave Ukros deeply yearned for European values and, boy, did they get European values!
”Well, the brave Ukros deeply yearned for European values and, boy, did they get European values!”
Ha, ha, ha. NIce One!
The situation in the Ukraine might be just a part of a constantly repeating fault line in western thinking.
Without being a military expert, though I’ve done my service, my guess is that Russia and China will *never* allow to have US soldiers at their border.
And yet they try and try again. Ukraine, the Black Sea, Poland and Lithuania (with crap stories that the ‘agressive Russians’ (who dare to have military drills within their own territory) will try to establish a land corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad, ‘hundreds’ of brave NATO soldiers, thousands of km. from home, are parading there with flags to prevent that).
I don’t think the Russian military is seriously concerned about that. I’m more concerned that some day a mistake is made, maybe unintentionally, whereby a western lunatic manouvres him- or herself (or any other of the about 666 known genders) into such a position where they can’t get out anymore.
And then we may start to worry. Really hard.
All the other stuff is show. I can still remember the EU clown Guy Verhofstadt at Maidan, and the unforgettable Yulia Timoshenko, ‘die Gazprinzessin’, when cut no blood but icewater will come out, who should be rewarded with an Oscar for her Maidan performance. It’s just show for the sheeples.
Thank you Saker.
I believe that the situation in the “Ukraine” is a wider analogue for the entire world.
The cunning stunts behind the destruction (and very notably, the ensuing decrease in property and infrastructure acquisition price) is following a very well established pattern of annexation.
Readers/commenters here are very well aware of the very active involvement, and machinations of Israel (italics added to denote the fundamental deceptive nature of this label, like all other things related to them), and their associated transnational collective agents/agencies.
It is relevant to note:
a. the primary directives of Rabbinical Talmudism to never relinquish land controlled by them/hereditary adherents ever, under any circumstances, ever; and the ideological imperative to regain control of any of their lost land at any cost to non-adherents.
b. the consideration by the same adherents of Rabbinical Talmudism that this was their land, under the Pale of Settlement, by various exceptional arrangements with Russia and variously, including notably, the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, et. al. by way of the Khazar occupation in this region from the 700 AD – 900 AD period (i.e. mostly before their top-down adoption of the Jewish religion, i.e. extremist supremacist Rabbinical Talmudism ideology.
Please note again, under their extremist supremacist ideology, “at any cost to non-adherents“.
I think it worthwhile to note that with the collapse of Ukrainian infrastructure, leading to the collapse of the society, prices for all assets are diminishing (as would be expected), to such a point as to become a great bargain, for a well-resourced (however gained by mass corruption and theft, ever so clever-clever, sneaky-sneaky, hee-hee-hee) consortium(s) of like-minded peoples/agencies.
In the broader sense, the events in the Ukraine foreshadow what is happening in the United States of America, and the west as a whole.
The bottom line is, everywhere, everytime over 2500 years, that the nations, have accepted, and in many cases, provided exceptions to the rules for the adherents of this collective of hatred of humanity, those nations have suffered collapse and destruction.
This is historical fact.
Review The Controversy of Zion by Douglas Reed, for the incredibly well-annotated historical details, now more and more widely available online. (https://www.controversyofzion.info)
Something ive thought but not seen written down is this ; to stage a major war a year ago would have been impossible because the people everywhere would have been nr impossible. The air filled with commercial jets people from every country scattered around the world etc etc etc now we have martial law pretty much , few planes , people were persuaded to return home only to be locked up there!! Etc etcetc
Were a war planned then this situation preceded by event 201 would clear the battlefield …. just a thought .
If this is off subject just dont publish it and i will post in the cafe, but it was a comment here that raised the subject .
If there is a major war it won’t matter whether commercial airliners are flying, or what civilians are doing.
Everyone will die, most of them before they even understand what is happening – let alone why.
No these things tend to develop instages . First is building public opinion through psycological operations , hence the babies neing eaten by the terrible hun .
Secondly obviously a full scale nclear war is in no humans interest , so IMO there will be stages of escalalation and intimidation to attain capitulation . Cyber war, economic war ,proxy war , sieges and sanctions . Bio warfare on a low level to weaken is standard procedure as is starvation and psycological warfare ; returning the heads of scouts and ambassadores . War is as much about defeating human will as it is defeating armys militarily .
So as we are clearly already at war i would expect to see things escalate slowly offering negotiations and oportunities to capitulate .
To start a war with Russia Iran, china indicates that the aims of the group cant be achieved other ways .
the collective west has become the picture of dorian grey and each year something more disgusting wriggle on to the face. all russia has done these past 13 years since the munich speech is remain peaceful while helping to shine ever more light on to the portrait previously well hidden in the attic.
now a huge percent of the worlds people have glimpsed this portrait and recoiled in horror despite herculean media propoganda efforts by the west to persuade people to not believe their own eyes.
russia and china need DO nothing more than they already are doing. the west is causing its own destruction now accelerating and the hideous portrait has become impossible to hideaway any longer hence all the rapidily increasing media censorship throughout the west on their own citizens
what russia and china face in the next 5-7 years is the reincarnation of the third reich in the of the eu and usa. at some point in this decade like all megalomanical fascist regimes war will become the only or at least the preferred option.
I hope Ukraine doesn’t have a nuclear power plant meltdown. Will the social disintegration make this more likely?
I have been wondering when there will be a backlash against this government that has failed so miserably, but it doesn’t seem to have materialized yet. Their hatred of Russia sounds like an attempt to transfer blame for their failures onto Russia.
Russia has taken off the gloves and is rapidly strangling both Ukraine and Baltic states.
Ukraine’s ports have lost almost all transit traffic of coal and iron from Russia (and Belarus). That meant more than 20% overall drop just in 2021.
Both Belarus and Russia has almost completely stopped using Baltic state’s ports for transit of coal, oil and refined oil products.
Latvia is selling (auctioning) part of its wagons, locomotives and rail tracks to scrap metal.
Latvia’s foreign minister tried to “fix” the situation by sending a letter to Russia asking for restoring the traffic, but nobody would read the letter. Its president asked for reception in Russia to discuss the matter, but the request was ignored.
Russia and now Belarus are redirecting all that traffic to Russian port on Baltic port Ust Luga instead. Just a week ago Russia and Belarus signed the contract for export of all Belarus’ refined oil products through Ust Luga.
As soon as current contract with Latvia runs out all remaining transit is going to be redirected to Ust Luga.
Ust Luga port is, I believe, already on the fifth place among the European ports soon climbing to the third or even shared second.
So no possibility of blackmailing Russia on that front anymore.
Ust Luga is by the way projected to become a city of 60.000 people soon after the port is completely finished and operational.
Recently Russia has recently finished the optical line from Petersburg to Kaliningrad. When current contract for internet traffic expire there will be no more Russian domestic internet traffic through Sweden and Lithuania.
In the last few years Russia has built gas electrical plants in Kaliningrad, LNG-terminal with capacity to produce more than 100% electrical need in the enclave. So no more threat of cutting the electricity lines through the Baltic off.
Every new achievement like recent first domestic gas turbines for ships boost Russian confidence, lower the dependency on hostile countries and allow harsher response on any western provocation. The similar will happen after finishing Nord Stream 2.
Russia is rapidly building water reservoirs and pipes in Crimea with plans to build the sea-water treatment facilities.
Expect soon some more surprises from Russia and whining in the EU about Russia playing foul (how dare you protecting yourself when we attack you).
Thank you for sharing this heartwarming information. There’s also the huge LNG factory about to be finished in Murmansk, and which will allow Russia to sell much cheaper than the US should Nordstream2 capsize, and probably gain significant market share even if NS2 gets completed.
The forever optimistic promising Z versus the IMF reality…..
A couple of more problems that the Ukraine is facing is
1) MMF won’t extend new loans.
2) They lost transit of Russian ore through their southern ports.
Twitter said 100 accounts with Russian ties were removed for amplifying narratives that undermined faith in NATO and targeted the United States and the European Union.
Is there an oath of loyalty to NATO that is sworn when you sign up for a Twitter account?
Is it so easy to undermine NATO with a few convincing arguments?
“the sad reality is that nobody in the EU gives a damn about the Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. EU politicians don’t even care about their own people, why should they care about anybody except themselves anyway?”
I remember reading years ago an interview of a St Petersburg (Florida or Russia, I forget) prostitute, who was asked why she had unprotected sex with her “clients” when she knew that she had HIV/Aids. Her response was “I don’t respect myself; why should I respect the Johns?”
Eu politicians compare unfavorably with that whore. Citizens who try to benefit from or “work with” said politicians compare unfavorably with her patrons.
Trying to rehabilitate patrons, let alone prostitutes/politicians, is as difficult as trying to reform a homeless drunk. Best let them hit rock bottom, and perhaps some will dry out and climb their ways out of their holes.
I see, you’ve finally come also to the conclusion that Ukrland is an artificial construct, ready to be salvaged. I think you stated in previous articles that Ukrland, hate it or love it, is a real country with all the bells and whistles of statehood – I’ve never seen it like that; like I see many more post Soviet states as transient non-entities of the greater Russian empire.
The question is which parts can be incorporated. I think the name of the game is how to extinguish the russophobe threat in those candidates in the remaining time. I suggest the Dniepr for an internal border and maybe Southern parts like Odessa. The russophobic rest should be governed by local comprador elites with Russia planting FOBs in these territories and taking control of the border to the West; and a kinder reeducation program China-style.
There is almost nothing to be gained from taking control of Ukrland. It’s a big dump. Subjects like LNR and DNR are worth to be revitalized. Kiev is too much of a historic symbol of the Slavic-world to be left in a shithole status.
2014 was the time to take Ukrland. Now it makes not much difference when this festering infection will finally kill its host. Only pity are the normal people left in this nightmare.
If they went to rhe Dniepr….they could ensure irrigation to eastern Ukraine and back to Crimea…..or maybe Belarus should cut it off at its border with Ukraine and divert the water back through Russia……
Good point. My view on this is, that Russia should go all in after Ukraine has sufficiently degraded ready to be stormed. This time Russia shouldn’t act halfheartedly, but decisively, no false regard to “European” and Americose feelings.
Ah, I forgot: The FSB should also be upgraded in these cases, a directorate just for hunting down these banderite murderers all over the Russian Empire. Maybe also for international hunts. I also liked an expansion on the financial/corruption criminals, who looted Russia and killed my country. I’d gladly render services in this case. Know many more capable active Russo-German soldiers, who’d be open to these ideas. I’m all for reviving great Russian-German traditions.
One can dream though
“One more example of the kind of insanity which has taken over the Ukraine with Ze in power: believe it or not, but the Ze administration has explained that the Ukraine gave NATO the “authorization” to overfly Crimea. Again, this is such a self-evidently stupid idea that I won’t discuss it on its merits. All I want you to do is imagine hearing all that crazy stuff if you were a Russian decision maker: would you simply ignore these nutcases or would you take the needed measures to make sure that none of that ever happens. Even Lavrov recently quoted the famous Roman wisdom “si vis pacem, para bellum” which, considering that Lavrov is most definitely a “moderate” tells you all you need to know about Russian responses to all this insanity.”
Before I address what I’ve underlined in my quote of Saker above (which I not only do not believe is self-evidently stupid, but actually quite predictable and strategically sound from the war-addicted US Empire’s point of view), I’d like to introduce a rare bit of a US VIP’s honest description of REAL US foreign policy that was delivered to one of the US’s most loyal vassal states – “Australia” – in very undiplomatic, crystal-clear language. The following video that contains the description is just over 8 minutes in length and it is IMO all well worth watching, but it is what starts at 6 minutes and 18 seconds into the video that is most important. At that point, VIP John Mearsheimer spells out to US Vassal State 2 (or is it 3?) exactly what it would mean if #2 improved relations with China instead of continuing to bow to US diktat.
(The comments by the video’s viewers and the replies to some of those comments by the video’s creator – “Tales of the American Empire” – are also well worth reading, IMO.)
I bring up Mearsheimer’s ultimatum to #2 because I believe that it is an absolute certainty that somebody equivalent to Mearsheimer has delivered the exact same ultimatum to absolutely ALL of the US’s vassal states, wherever they may be in the world, and this includes the US’s relatively new vassal-state formerly called Ukraine, now called “Ukraine”.
Do you remember the first impeachment of the Tangerine Jackass, and the testimony of all of its “witnesses”? (To summarize, the impeachment took place because of what TJ said and requested in a phone conversation between TJ and his ass-licking slave Zelenskii – the present leader of the US’s vassal state “Ukraine”.) Some of the witnesses referred to “Ukraine” as the US Empire’s new “tip of the spear” pointing at Russia. Some others said “if we don’t fight Russians in Ukraine, we’ll have to fight them over here”. WTF did those phrases mean and just exactly WHO are the “we” in Ukraine, and just exactly WHO are the “we” over here? (As always, the most important details were left unsaid, but what was said was a code well understood by those living inside The Beltway’s echo chamber.)
Anyway, back to the Saker’s quote, the part of it that I underlined, and I add to those the new “Ukrainian” naval bases that are supposedly going to be built. First of all, what prompted “Ukraine” to decide to build those naval bases? Just as Mearsheimer ordered “Australian” power-brokers to follow US diktat or be subjected to the Fidel Castro treatment, some US VIP ordered somebody in “Ukraine” to build them.
You learn from the video what the US has done to “Australia” over the decades. That is exactly what the US intends to create in “Ukraine”; only after accomplishing that transformation, much more is going to be demanded from Ukrainians. They’re going to be, they’re going to have to ACT as, “the tip of the spear” for the US Empire that is going to inflict at least the initial, probing wound into the body of Mother Russia. As Saker has spelled out so well, preparations are being made for that goal.
I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Putin and Mr. Lavrov. They have endured an endless list of US-Empire provocations without, I would say, very seriously striking back. But now the US has ordered Ze and his government to authorize NATO military flights over Crimea and these cowed, desperate slaves are following their orders to the letter. They were given the Australia choice – “you’re either with us, or you’re against us”. And now they’ve been ordered to build military bases which “Ukraine” cannot afford, but no doubt “the West” will loan “Ukraine” the “money” to do that (the Fed will print out of thin air a special pile of USD earmarked for this purpose only).
The US Empire’s purpose in these provocations is perfectly obvious and also makes perfect sense. The Empire wants to provoke Russia into taking military action which “the international community” can then use to condemn Russia, justify shutting down Nordstream 2 and further isolate Russia from “the West” – re-erecting an Iron Curtain, if you will.
Mr. Putin and Mr. Lavrov should announce, not in secret, for all the world to hear, that Russia will shoot down any aircraft that have not received prior permission to fly over the part of Russia called Crimea.
Mr. Putin and Mr. Lavrov should announce, not in secret, for all the world to hear, that Russia will consider even the start of construction of any military bases by “Ukraine” (the US) on either the Black Sea or the Sea of Azov to be an existential threat to the national security of the Russian Federation and that will be stopped by Russia taking whatever measures that are required to stop that construction, including the use of military force.
If Ukraine is splitting, it’s happening at geological speed…
Here’s an unusual thing – a Ukrainian entrepreneur has engineered a good all-terrain vehicle:
Obviously you have not been paying attention to what is going on in Ukraine – President Zelenskiy has signed a decree that will create the ‘Crimea Negotiating Platform”.
This will ‘coordinate international efforts’ to force Russia to return Crimea to Ukraine. You see? Simples. One word from Zelenskiy, and the west will unite shoulder to shoulder behind Ukraine and sanction Russia into next week.
There are a couple of things wrong with that seemingly-brilliant strategy. One, the west has already sanctioned everything worth sanctioning in the attempt to ‘impose costs on Russia’ which, in theory, were going to make it shamefacedly hand Crimea back to its Ukrainian masters. In practice, actual success can be measured in goose-eggs, which are shaped sort of like zeroes. Russia grows more insulated from western economic pressure every day, while the military-capability gap grows ever wider. It looks more and more like the window of opportunity closed a long time ago on that potential for leverage. The only thing left untouched is Europe’s gas supply, and if the Europeans are going to ‘negotiate’ by threatening to terminate their own gas supplies so as to help Washington achieve its foreign-policy objectives, they’re even stupider than I thought.
Two, Ukraine willingly and eagerly put itself in irrecoverable debt to the IMF and other western institutions. They own it now, and when they get fed up with Ukraine’s schoolyard swaggering or in the unlikely event it elected a pro-Russian government, they will simply say “Pay up”, and tip Ukraine into default. Even if it were to offer itself to Russia as its most abject slave forever, Russia would not take any responsibility for it, because it is like a poisoned rat put out as bait for predators, and would be toxic for Russia – the IMF will insist that any non-aligned nation that helps Ukraine will be held accountable for its debt burden. Buh-bye, Ukraine; your ticket has done been punched. If Nord Stream II is completed, Ukraine ceases to have any strategic value for Washington since it will no longer be useful for introducing interruptions in Europe’s gas supply, and the USA will casually abandon it, although it will keep up the pro-Ukraine rhetoric for awhile, to sort of let them down easy.
Alternative hypothesis: the population of the western part of “Ukraine” is being, over an amazingly short period of time, turned into a non-NATO mercenary army that will either fight and die for the US Empire, or literally starve and freeze to death. It’s “Ukraine’s” choice. So far, the ongoing cultural separation and demonization of anything Russian leads me to believe that the former will be done.