It appears that the united West is preparing what I would call a “negotiations zoo” which would include not only Russian-US talks, but also NATO and even the OSCE. True, the US-Russia summit would take place 2 days before, at least that is the idea, but I still get the impression that the US has decided to use the Europeans like a kind of a political fig leaf behind which it would hide telling the Russians “but, unlike you, we are real democrats, and we need to consult with all our allies, friends and partners”.
So, say, Estonia will be consulted before any decision is taken.
If so, then this is headed nowhere and Russia will have to act unilaterally.
Some recent news are particularly funny. Like the Pentagon announcing that it will keep an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean to “reassure our European allies”. As if Russia did not have the means to reach to the mid-Mediterranean. And if we are talking about the western Mediterranean, then ask yourself how far the aircraft based on the carrier would have to fly to “deter” Russia: the truth is that the Russian “reach” is much longer than the US one, making the entire exercise a pure PR action.
If my feeling is correct, then the following will happen: the Russians will see this zoo and interpret that as a way for the US not to seriously negotiate, either because they don’t want to, or because they are unable to. Makes no difference to the Kremlin.
The Kremlin made a clear (and, frankly, quite reasonable) offer to the US, which now seems poised to drown it in empty verbiage, empty PR actions and empty threats. If so, then Russia will have no choice but to turn on the “pain dial” until the West comes back to reality.
What do you think – are you also getting the feeling that the US is simply unable to negotiate seriously?
If forced to invade Ukraine, Russia could take half the country – sympathetic to Russia- leaving Ukraine to its western areas where, in no time, Poland would see the opportunity of taking back Lvov and Galicia back into a larger Poland from whence western Ukraine was once subjected. Russia could then watch the nazi jackals of west Ukraine swallowed up by a resentful Poland. Could be karma.
I am wondering about meaning of word> “negotiate” . Wiki has a page of the term. Seyed Marandi has recently given an interview in which he describes the character of the “negotiation” over JCPOA … pretty much personal insults. “You got a cheap suit there…” That sort of thing. That interview is probably on his twitter.
I do not imagine that’s what Russia has in mind.
What was the term used in the original Russian statements and how does that translate?
“What was the term used in the original Russian statements and how does that translate?”
Translating between cultures, including cultures within language groups, requires very high facility.
Consequently almost all of the content on blogs are interpretations, including your quote above which would be more illuminating if rendered as “What do the representatives of the Russian Federation mean by using the words that they used in the original Russian statements ?”
The facilities that make translation possible also make ambiguity possible, the register chosen being a function of purpose.
Consequently it is “highly unlikely” that your question can/will be answered for various reasons.
it would be interesting to see an analysis of the top ten things Russia could do to turn up the pain dial.
One wild card, filled with irony, is R2P. The US/NATO used this in Yugoslavia onwards, and Russia stated at the time it was setting a bad precedent. It could now rightly throw R2P back into the west’s face by R2P’ing the Russian citizens living in east Ukraine.
I feel this is less about negotiating with a ‘non-agreement capable’ counter party but more about establishing the legal framework for being free to escalate in a lawful manner and maintain the moral high ground in the event of conflict.
The leadership of the Russian Federation have always espoused the primacy of the rule of law in international relations. The current ‘dialogue’ and those planned for January are consistent with this policy.
IMHO, this has probably been gamed to death by the Russian side and options already decided.
If past behaviour is a predictor, expect the unexpected.
War is the only option. US is too proud to surrender to Russia demands.
Yes if all this talk of Russian superiour military strength be true may tbey use it for good of humanity. There is no negotiation with lying and murderous people. People who are opposed to all good peopke everywhere.
I am eager to see the Dial up. Can barley wait for it. This is the Empire finally coming crashing down hard.
We living in interesting times. What the Chinese see as a curse, i can’t wait for it, because it means to break up old structures and everyone how is willing and capable, can finally escape his dreaded future that would otherwise wait for him.
Hope that this, if it goes kinetic, will not turn nuclear, and we see some humbled NATO and US forces.
Totally agree. I am looking for it and praying for it also. Enough talk. Russia must at some point see there is no negotiating with evil.
They can ‘try’ to cut Russian shipping to Syria. If kinzals are in place, this might prove a dangerous move. One of official has already suggested moving some zircons to Syria as well, now we know why.
…”NATO zoo” 🤣
“Every crisis is an opportunity ” -paraphrase from ancient China.
Shoigou can send his senior assistant janitor in charge of wastebaskets to pick up the bullet points as they will assuredly be typed out, a.k.a. the Nuland treatment. It’s time to turn that good-cop, bad-cop negotiation style on it’s head.
The US gets to meet with RF officials, EU/NATO swamp critters can talk to the hand, maybe the Chinese embassy can get some thermal blankets with pics of Puttin/Xi raising a glass printed on them, make sure the critters go home with something warm.
“are you also getting the feeling that the US is simply unable to negotiate seriously?”
I’ve had the feeling that the USA is simply not able to negotiate and keep deals AT ALL
Absolutely correct. The US is going to do the same nonsense it always does. But this time Russia is fully prepared for that. Biden is going to get a shock.
According to reports of the Biden-Putin Thursday phone call, Biden told Putin there would be a “decisive response” if Russia invaded Ukraine. Leaving aside the BS about Russia invading Ukraine, which by the way shows that Biden is fully on board with the bullcrap the CIA and the neocons have created about that, his “decisive response” was indicated as more sanctions, reinforcing eastern Europe with more US military forces, and sending more arms to Ukraine to help defend itself.
As to the latter, if Russia invades Ukraine – or more precisely, responds to a Ukraine attack on the Donbass region, how the hell does the US think they are going to be able to send any more arms to Ukraine’s military when it is likely to cease to exist in the wake of the Russian counter-attack? Is the US going to give an entire new Ukrainian army for free? I think not. And Ukraine certainly can’t pay for one if the entire eastern half of Ukraine, including the port of Odessa, ends up in Russian or eastern Ukrainian hands.
This alone suggests that no one in Washington has the slightest clue as to military matters – or is deliberately lying to the US electorate about whether the US is capable of supporting Ukraine – or both. Certainly Putin must have heaved a sigh at that notion – and for that matter, at the rest of Biden’s toothless threats.
An American plane nearly shot down a plane of a Belarusian airline.
There is, on the part of the US State Department, no problem replying positively to the Russian treaty. Senior and junior officials are on the same page. Patronage considerations do not make the impact that is often suggested. The Deep State certainly tries to overthrow State policy but this is now, in modern times, strongly contradicted by public ideological pressure. The number of US citizens who adopt the American ideology runs into millions and millions. These people have been, in the past, aroused to great wrath by Mr Trump and are now totally focused on American exceptionalism which they are conflating with US exceptionalism.
The stories about conflict and chaos are simply pr from Foggy Bottom.
It is this pressured US exceptionalism which will not brook Mr Putin’s leadership. They will invent all sorts of reasons why a slightly hopeless blob of a nation has to appear greater than its elder brother GB.
Great Britain hates Russia and thereby Mr Putin. The exceptional US has to “do better”. Hence, there is no desire at FB to move to a Clear Potomac. American ideology, at its core, is driving the Treaty signing or Treaty rejection. If there is a signing America is revealed as a hopeless elder brother to a taught and capable younger brother in Anglo-Zionism-Saxon Britain. A funny relationship.
Sibling rivalry is what ‘mother’ Russia has to spank out of naughty children.
The question for Foggy Bottom is does it want to come clean, humble itself and thereby Americanism, take a realistic look around and start paying off unbelievable amounts of debt? It can do this; but will rivalry allow such a non-destructive course? Even Joseph tried to undo Jacob’s crossed arms.
Everything hangs on facing facts. The US has the facts but America is determined to “uncross those arms” and will not sign any Treaty.
“ If so, then Russia will have no choice but to turn on the “pain dial” until the West comes back to reality. “
That is the opinion of the opponents predicated on the illusion that the representatives of the Russian Federation presented the opponents with “ultimata/restricted absolutes” not notices of intent.
That informed/informs the opponents “strategies” which as a function of their facility in interaction with others, are often rendered hopes, premature ejaculations, and false pregnancies, as a function of the facility of others, not necessarily by resort to my-schlong-is-bigger-than-your-schlongness.
“until the West comes back to reality. “
That is also a significant part of the opinion of the opponents in respect of the purpose of the Russian Federation in presenting the opponents notices of intents, which the opponents interpret as “restricted ultimata” -an oxymoron -as a function of binary framing, in hope of precluding transcendence of the opponents by returning to “reality” which never existed, except as divergent interpretations (plural).
The opponents are to some degree enmazed in a closed linear projected perceptual paradigm, which affords many lateral opportunities to their interlocutors, not restricted to the Russian Federation, since neither “The United States of America” nor the Russian Federation have sole agency.
Kicking the can down the road is the usual way. I think the Europeans will contribute the loud sound, like Germany‘s inexperienced Baerbock, the price she and her party, the Greens have to pay for being groomed to „govern“. They’re lacking very much experiences which makes them dangerous. I’m sure Biden does not want to be the US president who is responsible for delivering Europe its grave. And also Putins explanation after the talks with Biden is showing in my opinion that the pace and speed of January‘s negotiations shows Biden is aware of the bad cards he has to offer. But the Europeans have no cards at all, just hot air.
RE: Tedsche on December 31, 2021 · at 7:35 pm EST/EDT
“They’re lacking very much experiences which makes them dangerous. “
Evaluation is a function of facility and purpose.
The quotation above is a derivative of the president as madman ploy used by Mr. Kissinger in the early 1970’s.
It doesn’t make them dangerous, it outlines their weakness and reliance on the beliefs of others in their propaganda including their beliefs that all others are fools, whilst some others interpret this as an indicator of the success of the propaganda, lubricated by – We the people hold these truths to be self-evident.
It renders them and their audiences vulnerable to those with different facility and purpose.
Hence they and their audiences are rendered dangerous to themselves, as remains the case for those who overestimate their facilities.
The notice inviting talks leading to a Russian security guarantee anticipated delaying tactics and included a warning against them. President Putin no doubt already has a timetable and a plan of action ready for this eventuality.
Oh, to be a fly on the walls in the White House and the Pentagon for the next few weeks.
“President Putin no doubt already has a timetable and a plan of action ready for this eventuality.”
That is a likely component whilst retaining doubt, of the reasons why the representatives of the Russian Federation issued a notice of intent that the opponents chose to interpret as “ultimata” by failing to thoroughly explore the question “Do you think your opponents are as stupid as you are?”
The clueless heads in washington made the air head Biden declare in early December that they would conduct a solemn diplomatic boycott to the China winter olympics.
Well, yesterday the exceptionalist leaders of the World have officially applied for a 3-month visa for 18 US officials for the same olympics. First why 3 months for a less than one month event?
The official excuse was to provide security for the gringo sports participants.
The Beijing guys should never miss this opportunity to say no and show the 18 and their boss the middle finger.
“The Beijing guys should never miss this opportunity to say no and show the 18 and their boss the middle finger.”
Perhaps you haven’t heard the tale/tail of those who wanted to eat all of the sausages?
Forget the idea of any major power military exchange. This is about making Russia invade Ukraine and then hitting them with economic sanctions that they hope will destabilize Putin, prompt a coup, install a puppet regime, make Russia a NATO member, and then build U.S. bases on China’s border. China gets it. They can’t let Russia fall to the West. They will probably take Taiwan when Russia moves on Ukraine. The economic chaos that results in the West will crash markets, supercharge inflation, sink currencies, and prompt insurrections. All of this could happen without any direct superpower confrontations. This is enough mayhem to determine the fate of nations so that nukes will never be used to determine the outcome. Each side has a plan B, when negotiations fail, that they believe will be the undoing of their adversary. This ultimately will be a test of societal resolve and coherence.