by Rostislav Ishchenko for Ukraina.ru
Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text
Predictably, the United States rejected the Russian ultimatum. They couldn’t help but reject it, otherwise the Biden clique simply wouldn’t have stayed in power. The Democrats were pushed there not so that they would merge America, but so that the interests of bankers and stockbrokers would be a priority for the American government, and not the real sector, as under Trump
But if Biden had agreed to hand over Europe to Russia without resistance, the bankers would have agreed to Trump as well.
Of course, the ultimatum was not personally rejected by Biden, but only by a State Department official, but it was not presented personally either Putin, and the Russian Foreign Ministry, so from the point of view of protocol, the order is observed. In addition, it is in the interests of the United States to leave the element of intrigue, pretending that there may still be a chance to reach an agreement. That’s exactly what they do. Stating that the Russian proposals were unacceptable, they immediately said that, nevertheless, they were carefully studying them in order to prepare their own. This is also a normal diplomatic practice: we received a package of proposals from our opponent, sent them our own, and then we can negotiate a compromise option until the Greek calendar.
There is a caveat: the Russian Foreign Ministry, when sending proposals, stated that they cannot be discussed and changed, but can only be accepted or not accepted. But this was only said by the deputy minister, and Putin and Biden have not yet said anything fatal.
I would not be surprised if the United States now actively offers Russia to hold consultations behind closed doors: without informing the press, its own public, or its allies about the fact of consultations. Their argument will be quite convincing: the parties have gone too far in drawing red lines, it will be extremely difficult to work out a compromise position (and even so that no one loses face), on the other hand, and no one can retreat, but if we don’t start a nuclear war because of this, then until we reach a result, let’s not admit to anyone that we are negotiating.
In fact, Washington will have only one goal at the moment: to stretch out as much time as possible. Since the ultimatum has already been formally rejected, Russia should take some steps to influence its geopolitical opponents. Otherwise, it will turn out that they threatened-threatened, and calmed down. If Moscow buys into the American proposal for secret negotiations, then all the time that such negotiations will go on (and this may be six months, or a year) Russia will look like a country unable to implement its own threats.
Even if at some stage Moscow breaks off negotiations and decides to act, the United States is not particularly worried about the consequences, even hoping to gain an advantage. From Washington’s point of view, Moscow can only move to active military actions in Ukraine. There are no such favorable circumstances anywhere else.
The reason for the beginning of military operations is given by the Kiev security forces every day, shooting at the cities of Donbass. The package of opportunities in Ukraine is the largest. You can recognize the LDNR within the existing borders, or you can accept them as part of the Russian Federation within the same borders. You can move the line of demarcation to the borders of the regions and recognize the republics already in this form. It is possible to integrate them into Russia within such borders. You can also create from one to five more people’s republics. You can reanimate the Novorossiya project. You can divide Ukraine with the Poles, Hungarians and Romanians all, or you can make a piece independent, so that there is someone to pay debts and work as a buffer between Russia and NATO.
These are only the main options, but in principle there are almost an unlimited number of them. Theoretically, the huge space for maneuver makes the Ukrainian direction very convenient for striking the United States. But will it be an effective show of strength?
I do not think that it is by chance that the American military and politicians, who recently told how the powerful Ukrainian army would conquer everything up to the Chinese border, suddenly “saw the light” and began to argue whether Russia would destroy the UAF in a few days or in a few hours. This is an informational preparation for dumping Ukraine on the Russian balance sheet. The Americans and Europeans have already stated that they will not fight for Ukraine with Russia (that is, for the second time after the Crimea and the beginning of the Russian Spring, they literally invite Russia to seize all of Ukraine).
They will tell their public opinion that they would like to help Kiev, but Ukrainian corrupt officials, despite the active support of the West, have not been able to create a combat-ready army that would last at least a month against Moscow. You can’t start a nuclear war with Russia because of these corrupt politicians. And they will refer to today’s assessments by the US military of the Ukrainian combat capability.
As you understand, no Western public will obstruct their politicians because of Ukraine, which they wanted to help, but it was their own fault — they turned out to be unworthy. The second effect of recognizing the weakness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is to discredit Russia’s military capabilities: “Just think, they captured a defenseless country that didn’t even have an army,”-they will say so and again refer to today’s assessments of their generals. “We expected bloodshed from him, but he ate a chizhik” – all in the classic style.
If Russia seizes all of Ukraine, it’s fine: there will no longer be a buffer between it and the Eastern European members of NATO, which means that various Poles and other Romanians will be more afraid and unquestioningly fulfill all American wishes. Western Europe will be shamed by the fact that as a result of its policy (“SP-2”), Russia has reached the eastern borders of NATO, capturing Ukraine, which hoped for Western help. Now, they say, it is necessary to consolidate around the United States and abandon separate economic cooperation with Moscow, otherwise the joke about Russian tankers in Paris can become a reality.
Moscow will limit itself not even to joining, but only to recognizing the DPR/LPR within the current borders — along the line of demarcation) – this is also good. It will be possible to say that even the weak Ukrainian army was able to defend its country, inflict unacceptable losses on the aggressor, and everything that has been said in Kiev for eight years. At the same time, Western and Eastern Europe can be persuaded to participate more actively in Ukrainian military construction and even try to create a Polish-Baltic-Ukrainian “defensive alliance” that will make NATO a hostage to the policies of four Eastern European members and a non-American puppet.
The main thing is that whenever events in Ukraine start and no matter how they develop, the United States will be able to show its allies that it was not they who were afraid of the Russian ultimatum, but Moscow could only “beat the little ones” and try to push them to a more active and aggressive anti-Russian course.
It is clear that all this can be seen not only from Washington, but also from the Kremlin. Consequently, the Russian leadership understands that it is at least risky to start military actions exactly there and exactly as expected from you. It is necessary either to change the region of application of efforts, or to change the current political situation in such a way that the actions expected by the enemy will bring unexpected results (as, for example, it was done in the course of preparing to repel the Georgian aggression against South Ossetia in 2008).
The situation is complicated: Russia needs to take action to support its ultimatum, without falling into the trap set by the enemy in the expected direction of its activity, without getting involved in a protracted conflict, without overdoing violence, and at the same time showing that if the “partners” continue to joke, they will be very hurt, and they will not be able to cause us retaliatory damage.
It is necessary to beat not on American minions (the United States is not sorry for them — they bought them for a ruble bucket), but on the vital interests of the United States, and it is advisable not to use the armed forces. Armed violence is something that the Americans expect and plan to use to their advantage, and they need to make an unpleasant surprise.
It is no surprise whatsoever that SehSha has in essence ‘rejected’ the ultimatums issued by Russia and now China, although as of this moment China has not ‘officially’ rejected SehSha’s ‘rejection’.
It seems that VVP did put the fear of God in the denizens of Foggy Bottom. On the other hand, anyone with half a brain in the Foggy Bottom hierarchy should be aware of the huge gains Mother has made in military technology, let alone surviving all the sanctions with nary a whimper and turning many of them to her advantage.
Still and all, methinks VVP and his team know something we don’t (what a serprize that is) and are dealing from a position of overwhelming superiority both military and economic. It’s going to be an interesting couple weeks and if nothing else VVP and Xi have fornicated Foggy Bottom’s holiday plans for sure.
Never The Last One, paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1521849056 Never the Last One: a Novel of Spetznaz, opens your eyes to the Russian world not described in American news or fiction.
An Incident On Simonka, paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1696160715 NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
“…be aware of the huge gains Mother has made in military technology, let alone surviving all the sanctions with nary a whimper and turning many of them to her advantage.”
Some thing that many People not may understand about Russia geologically is…they have everything on their own Homeland. Oil, Rare Earth, Gas, any kind of Metal in substantial amount. If they import things, they only do it for two reasons: 1.)To help the trade Partners to earn money 2.) To save their own resources.
But in time of need they can easily spin up their own Mining operations and be truly independent.
“But they need money for this and if they cut of the finance market they can’t get some!!!”
Only if you live in the Western propaganda economics in witch the Elites with the money want you to believe this to not uprise and remove them. Russia have the means and the true control over their own currency and therefore no Bank can dictate Moscow what they should do. It is my suspicion that this Bretton Wood thing was made because of this reason alone.
Until Russian natural resources are depleted, Russia can trucking on indefinitely and will do so for the foreseeable future.
We can see this right now, how Russia not even withstand the sanctions, but even modernize and expand their still comparable expensive Military. Let alone modernize their infrastructure and living standard of their people.
This is Why Hillary and Albright was so sad about Russia. They want this resources for their own Masters but couldn’t get it.
Also Mckinders Heartland theorie based not only on geographic but i suspect that they already known what Russia had in this soil.
Resource Prospecting is far older than many known and People back than wasn’t savage animals like many arrogantly think. They may already knew that the stuff they found would be of some worth at some point in the future, and they are right.
Why would Russia want to seize all of Ukraine! All they need to do is acquire the strategic sections and leave the bleeding ulcer for the west!
Yes true in theory but this will move the problem Ukraine-Nato in place.US/UK/EU/NATO could do whatever they want, including installing nukes in the remaining of Ukraine.
Russia doest not need any part of Ukraine(even Donbass), but what is absolutely needed once and for all, is to totaly destroy the nazi power in Kiev(zelinsky, all oligarchs, azov, pr sektor, militants, foreign instructors and co, media…)All must be eliminated and a relatively friendly power must take over, with the message if you dare change side once again you also will be eliminated, destroyed at any moment.The denazification must happen urgently.This should be possible ‘à la 08/08/08’ a fast and lethal(chirurgical) intervention by special forces with full licence to kill.Message for the ukie army general, you may stay alive but don’t ever dare to attack Russian speaking people again or make any deal with Nato or others.Otherwise…
In two ways, Ukraine is an all or nothing proposition.
1. Rostislav Ishchenko laid out the various ways that the Empire could profit from splitting up the Ukraine into pieces, and that no matter how the pieces would be laid out, the Empire draws a big benefit. This has also been discussed by others, as well.
2, Flight time of nuclear-armed missiles is reduced with every kilometer of territory the Empire gains.
The most important point which Ishchenko makes, is that Russia needs – and will deliver – an unexpected response, not any of the easily predictable moves. I believe the chess players will bring the checkers players under control. But that’s only in “the best of all worlds”, because an accident or a miscalculation could lead to a nuclear war. Too bad we don’t live in real democracies where the public can vote out their warmongers. And, it’s too bad the citizens of the Empire don’t have enough self-respect and/or insight to be bothered by their obvious lack of power.
Putin, then Lavrov and later Shoigu and Gerasimov, have been dealing with Exceptional National bullsh$t for decades now.
I reckon they know what they are dealing with.
I like this author’s humorous style, ….and we, the global peanut gallery/popcorn eating observing audience are trying to guess the plot twist.
But we are all sure the Russians have thought this through …move, counter move; move, counter move, and on and on.
I doubt the US anticipated this *at all*. They won’t have “gamed” it *ever*.
So they’ve gone to their default position… which is to scoff and dismiss.
To my amusement and curiosity, I’ve done a swing through the “th!nk! tank$”, and *none* are taking it seriously at all.
Michael McFaul, ambassador to Russia who has delusions he knows the Russians and who is thus deferred to, is “mind reading” Putin..
He says it’s all bluff and shows Putin is desperate.
So if anyone in the administration reaches out for a “second” opinion, they are only listening to an echo chamber.
Michael McFaul is a former US Ambassador to Russia (from 2012 to 2014)
So he was there “5 minutes” and believes he’s an expert.
I check his twitterings randomly to see what delusions he is foisting on the even more poorly informed US academic/ think tank/ military and administration blob.
His latest tweep:
“In 2011 in Moscow, I was in a meeting between VP Biden and PM Putin.
At one point in the conversation, Putin pointed to his cheek and said (Im paraphrasing), ‘you look are our (white) skin and you think that we think like you do. But we don’t.’
He is flogging his book… ‘From Cold War to Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia’
I know that the Saker and few others think of this Rostislav Ishchenko as some kind of brilliant analyst and guru, but myself, unfortunately, I find this man rather shallow and not that truly intelligent. Definitely, not a match to say, Dmitry Orlov or Moon of Alabama guy. He is a Ukranian for a start, but we will not hold that against him, what is really problematic is his desire to come across as some kind of indisputable “EXPERT”, when in fact, he is not.
That is my opinion of him. Sorry, Andrei.
Agree! This short piece by Ischenko does not provide any insight but just speculation which any reader of non systemic Western media is capable of to put forward in a *comment* section.
Everything (obvious) has been said but not yet by everyone.
Can’t agree. There were much better pieces of analysis by Ishchenko on this blog earlier. Read his articles about the Russian world and the post-American world. I say they’re great to have an idea about the big picture.
Besides, even Pepe Escobar has written some inconsistent articles which didn’t give a clear synthesis, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not a good analyst.
You might want to listen to him speak if you know Russian, he is regularly interviewed. I think he is usually pretty indepth and very interesting to listen to, he is certainly among the best analysts in Russia right now. Also these machine translated articles might sound little off.
This post supports what I’ve said: that the US is deliberately sacrificing Ukraine in a war with Russia in order to gain propaganda and geopolitical agendas.
The CIA and the neocons tried to seize the Russian Black Sea naval base in 2014 and get Ukraine into NATO so the US could post strategic weapons on Russia’s borders. That was the point of the Maidan coup. Putin nixed that.
But the CIA and the neocons hate Russia, so they aren’t going to stop trying to get some sort of advantage by using Ukraine. So it is clear that is why Ukraine prepared for another offensive early this year, which Russia derailed (temporarily) by responding with its forces. But the situation remains the same.
I think Russia’s presentation of these demands is because Putin’s intelligence network inside Ukraine told him that the CIA and the neocons have convinced Zelensky to go for broke in the Donbass regardless of the Russian response. So he decided to up the ante and “get ahead of the blame” by offering the West a way out and seizing the “moral high ground” when the West decides to ignore his offer – as they undoubtedly will.
War between Ukraine and Russia is a done deal. Once that is over and done with, Russia will then move in various ways to strengthen their security against the West in ways that the West will use to demonize Russia even more. There is no good ending to this process that doesn’t involve more war.
They could press the americans in Syria, as alternative. If I’m not mistaken, there are still several former Syrian bases still full of american vermins. Al-Tanf seems a good candidate – it’s on the opposite side of Idlib, so the Turks won’t feel so threatened when the action begin.
Are Russia and China more in a hurry to find solutions or is it the USA? Which state, which financial system, which culture are rotting and imploding?
As Putin (not literally) said, why should we be aggressive when our foes are about to destroy themselves.
These ultimatums have the main purpose to sow discord between the would be hegemon and his vassals and to invite non aligned states to make a choice for a better world.
Maybe very serious provocations were imminent and these ultimatums stopped them in the bud.
my purely imagination sourced theory is: Russia’s “proposal” assertion is the spearhead of a coherent fluid adaptive Russia-China military-political-economic dynamic. Much more than a self-contained Russia-US proposal- counteProposal poker game.
Pure imagination, tho. My poor brain fails to come up with ideas of how that might operate in practice.
Salaam to all here.
Saker I am not knowledgeable in these affair.I must say though that I do admire your work and for your commentators-thanks to them for opening my eyes to so much of the real world affairs.The world is in a very shaky place, way too much disquiet,tension and uncertainty.Is the Russian response something to do with a return of president Yanokovych in someway,a sort of reverse Maidan.Maybe a release of data on the MH17 issue and a Skripal interview.The third of January is just a few days away, intelligence on haj Qassem matyrdom. Even a joint statement with China on the JCPOA? Keep up to good work, to you and your family,moderators, and all at this forum,have a most enjoyable and holy Christmas seasons and a blessed epiphany.Salaam