by Rostislav Ishchenko for Ukraina.ru
Note: this is a machine translation from the original Russian text
Predictably, the United States rejected the Russian ultimatum. They couldn’t help but reject it, otherwise the Biden clique simply wouldn’t have stayed in power. The Democrats were pushed there not so that they would merge America, but so that the interests of bankers and stockbrokers would be a priority for the American government, and not the real sector, as under Trump
But if Biden had agreed to hand over Europe to Russia without resistance, the bankers would have agreed to Trump as well.
Of course, the ultimatum was not personally rejected by Biden, but only by a State Department official, but it was not presented personally either Putin, and the Russian Foreign Ministry, so from the point of view of protocol, the order is observed. In addition, it is in the interests of the United States to leave the element of intrigue, pretending that there may still be a chance to reach an agreement. That’s exactly what they do. Stating that the Russian proposals were unacceptable, they immediately said that, nevertheless, they were carefully studying them in order to prepare their own. This is also a normal diplomatic practice: we received a package of proposals from our opponent, sent them our own, and then we can negotiate a compromise option until the Greek calendar.
There is a caveat: the Russian Foreign Ministry, when sending proposals, stated that they cannot be discussed and changed, but can only be accepted or not accepted. But this was only said by the deputy minister, and Putin and Biden have not yet said anything fatal.
I would not be surprised if the United States now actively offers Russia to hold consultations behind closed doors: without informing the press, its own public, or its allies about the fact of consultations. Their argument will be quite convincing: the parties have gone too far in drawing red lines, it will be extremely difficult to work out a compromise position (and even so that no one loses face), on the other hand, and no one can retreat, but if we don’t start a nuclear war because of this, then until we reach a result, let’s not admit to anyone that we are negotiating.
In fact, Washington will have only one goal at the moment: to stretch out as much time as possible. Since the ultimatum has already been formally rejected, Russia should take some steps to influence its geopolitical opponents. Otherwise, it will turn out that they threatened-threatened, and calmed down. If Moscow buys into the American proposal for secret negotiations, then all the time that such negotiations will go on (and this may be six months, or a year) Russia will look like a country unable to implement its own threats.
Even if at some stage Moscow breaks off negotiations and decides to act, the United States is not particularly worried about the consequences, even hoping to gain an advantage. From Washington’s point of view, Moscow can only move to active military actions in Ukraine. There are no such favorable circumstances anywhere else.
The reason for the beginning of military operations is given by the Kiev security forces every day, shooting at the cities of Donbass. The package of opportunities in Ukraine is the largest. You can recognize the LDNR within the existing borders, or you can accept them as part of the Russian Federation within the same borders. You can move the line of demarcation to the borders of the regions and recognize the republics already in this form. It is possible to integrate them into Russia within such borders. You can also create from one to five more people’s republics. You can reanimate the Novorossiya project. You can divide Ukraine with the Poles, Hungarians and Romanians all, or you can make a piece independent, so that there is someone to pay debts and work as a buffer between Russia and NATO.
These are only the main options, but in principle there are almost an unlimited number of them. Theoretically, the huge space for maneuver makes the Ukrainian direction very convenient for striking the United States. But will it be an effective show of strength?
I do not think that it is by chance that the American military and politicians, who recently told how the powerful Ukrainian army would conquer everything up to the Chinese border, suddenly “saw the light” and began to argue whether Russia would destroy the UAF in a few days or in a few hours. This is an informational preparation for dumping Ukraine on the Russian balance sheet. The Americans and Europeans have already stated that they will not fight for Ukraine with Russia (that is, for the second time after the Crimea and the beginning of the Russian Spring, they literally invite Russia to seize all of Ukraine).
They will tell their public opinion that they would like to help Kiev, but Ukrainian corrupt officials, despite the active support of the West, have not been able to create a combat-ready army that would last at least a month against Moscow. You can’t start a nuclear war with Russia because of these corrupt politicians. And they will refer to today’s assessments by the US military of the Ukrainian combat capability.
As you understand, no Western public will obstruct their politicians because of Ukraine, which they wanted to help, but it was their own fault — they turned out to be unworthy. The second effect of recognizing the weakness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is to discredit Russia’s military capabilities: “Just think, they captured a defenseless country that didn’t even have an army,”-they will say so and again refer to today’s assessments of their generals. “We expected bloodshed from him, but he ate a chizhik” – all in the classic style.
If Russia seizes all of Ukraine, it’s fine: there will no longer be a buffer between it and the Eastern European members of NATO, which means that various Poles and other Romanians will be more afraid and unquestioningly fulfill all American wishes. Western Europe will be shamed by the fact that as a result of its policy (“SP-2”), Russia has reached the eastern borders of NATO, capturing Ukraine, which hoped for Western help. Now, they say, it is necessary to consolidate around the United States and abandon separate economic cooperation with Moscow, otherwise the joke about Russian tankers in Paris can become a reality.
Moscow will limit itself not even to joining, but only to recognizing the DPR/LPR within the current borders — along the line of demarcation) – this is also good. It will be possible to say that even the weak Ukrainian army was able to defend its country, inflict unacceptable losses on the aggressor, and everything that has been said in Kiev for eight years. At the same time, Western and Eastern Europe can be persuaded to participate more actively in Ukrainian military construction and even try to create a Polish-Baltic-Ukrainian “defensive alliance” that will make NATO a hostage to the policies of four Eastern European members and a non-American puppet.
The main thing is that whenever events in Ukraine start and no matter how they develop, the United States will be able to show its allies that it was not they who were afraid of the Russian ultimatum, but Moscow could only “beat the little ones” and try to push them to a more active and aggressive anti-Russian course.
It is clear that all this can be seen not only from Washington, but also from the Kremlin. Consequently, the Russian leadership understands that it is at least risky to start military actions exactly there and exactly as expected from you. It is necessary either to change the region of application of efforts, or to change the current political situation in such a way that the actions expected by the enemy will bring unexpected results (as, for example, it was done in the course of preparing to repel the Georgian aggression against South Ossetia in 2008).
The situation is complicated: Russia needs to take action to support its ultimatum, without falling into the trap set by the enemy in the expected direction of its activity, without getting involved in a protracted conflict, without overdoing violence, and at the same time showing that if the “partners” continue to joke, they will be very hurt, and they will not be able to cause us retaliatory damage.
It is necessary to beat not on American minions (the United States is not sorry for them — they bought them for a ruble bucket), but on the vital interests of the United States, and it is advisable not to use the armed forces. Armed violence is something that the Americans expect and plan to use to their advantage, and they need to make an unpleasant surprise.