This article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/the-usa-springs-a-trap-russia-will-have-walk-into/
Tis the season to be leaking, at least in Washington DC were the latest WaPo obtained “leak” is suggestint that the US is offering Russia a plan to ‘coordinate’ their strikes on Daesh and al-Nusra and to set up joint implementation group (JIG) to “enable expanded coordination between the United States and the Russian Federation beyond the established safety of flight procedures. The participants, through the JIG, are to work together to defeat Jabhat al Nusra and Daesh within the context of strengthening the Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) and supporting the political transition process outlined in UNSCR 2254”. The US proposal also says that “The participants are to implement the provisions of the “Approach for Practical Russian-American Efforts against Daesh and Jabhat al Nusra and Strengthening the Cessation of Hostilities.”
Considering that the Kremlin has been demanding exactly that kind of cooperation with the USA for many months already, it is going to be awfully hard for the Russians to try to decline this US offer, especially considering that it does have many positive aspects. Buried inside the text however, are a few very disturbing clauses which the Russians will have to manover around without overtly rejecting this US offer.
This is the full text of the plan as obtained by the WaPo:
Notice the paragraphs: (emphasis added)
Nusra Targeting. The participants will commit to supporting deliberate targeting of Nusra. Once senior representatives to the JIG decide that information exchange has produced commonly understood information, the participants, through the JIG, intend to begin coordinating the targeting of Nusra. The participants are to develop target packages for Nusra targets under their national targeting processes. The participants, through the JIG, should coordinate on targets that have been developed. Once a decision has been reached on targets, the participants should coordinate the participants’ proposals on how these targets are to be addressed. Initial efforts against mutually-decided-upon targets will be deconflicted by geography or time. With the exception of imminent threats to the participants where prior agreement on a target is infeasible, the participants will only take action against Nusra targets that are agreed to in advance, pursuant to procedures developed by the JIG and deconflicted through existing channels.
Target Development. Only those targets that both participants agree are actionable will be further developed for strikes. The participants are to facilitate precision targeting by exchanging mensurated target locations. Actionable targets, as decided mutually by the participants, are to receive the same treatment as do other national targets – there is no presumption of priority simply because the participants mutually decided that a target is actionable.
In the case of Daesh, the plan is less restrictive. It says that
Daesh Targeting: The participants may communicate targeting information for targets that permit independent, but synchronized, operations against Daesh in Syria. The participants are to select and
prioritize targets at their respective operational headquarters. The participants are to manage the exchange of information between targeting organizations. Any decision to jointly validate and execute a Daesh target should be made pursuant to procedures developed by the JIG and deconflicted through existing channels. [Both participants reserve the right to conduct unilateral strikes against Daesh targets outside of designated areas].
Strike Details. The participants commit to developing a format for the information about intended operations to be exchanged, including the general time of the strike, the intended method of target attack, general force composition, routing of the strike and precise details of the target being struck. The participants commit to ensuring that the intended actions are deconflicted by time and/or geography. The participants commit to coordinating to ensure strike packages are not targeted by air defenses of either party or by those of the regime.
One could wonder why the difference in the way Daesh and al Nusra are treated here. And, of course, this is, yet again, the old American notion of “my” or “good” terrorists versus “bad” terrorists. What the above says is really simple: Russkies, please don’t strike al Nusra unless we agree to it, and please don’t shoot us down if we separately engage Daesh. But, please, feel free to engage Daesh on your own in if you. It’s just our al Nusra friends we are worried about.
And then there is this, truly priceless, paragraph:
ii. Other Circumstances. The Syrian military can employ military action, including air activities, against the Nusra Front outside of designated areas if Nusra acquires territory there. Russia can use airpower in defense of Syrian government forces in the event of attack by Nusra from within a designated area, if agreed in advance with the United States. All actions should be consistent with the terms of the cessation of hostilities.
This is typical US thinking: to impose an limitations on a party to the conflict (the legitimate Syrian government) without ever directly negotiating with, or talking to, that party. It took the Americans months to accept that they did have to talk to the Russians, but they are still categorically refusing to talk to the Syrians. Even more amazing is this: a party which has no legal mandate or right to be in Syria, the USA, wants to impose restrictions on the legitimate government of a sovereign nation. The arrogance of it all is still breathtaking. This mind-blowing arrogance is exacerbated even further a few paragraphs further where the US proposal says:
Prohibited Activities and Exemptions. The regime is prohibited from flying in designated areas; designated areas include areas of most concentrated Nusra presence, areas of significant Nusra presence, and areas where the opposition is dominant, with some possible Nusra presence. Exempted circumstances are:
* Humanitarian Assistance
* Personnel recovery
Yes, you read that right. The “regime” is prohibited. In truth, the “regime” could tell both Russia and the USA to get the bleep out of Syria and the “regime” would be in its full, legal, right. But since might makes right, at least from the American point of view, this is simply not going to happen.
Still, the plan does have many features which neither Russia or the Syrian government can afford to simply ignore.
For one thing, this plan is the first de-facto admission by the USA that Russia is a crucial actor in the Middle-East. To many, this may sound like almost nothing, a truism, but please remember that just a few months ago we were looking at a very real possibility of a joint Saudi-Turkish invasion of Syria. And we also know that the neocon crazies in the State Department are demanding air strikes against Damascus and attacks on Russian aircraft. Politics being the science of the possible, little steps in the right direction should never be ignored, especially when the alternative can be truly disastrous.
Second, the plan does contain some good language. For example, on page 6 the plans says:
Russia and the U.S. reconfirm their commitment to intensifying support and assistance to regional allies to help them prevent the flow of fighters, weapons, or financial support to UN designated terrorist groups across the Syrian border. Delineation of territories controlled by Daesh, Nusra, and moderate opposition forces remains a key priority. Nusra shall enjoy no safe haven anywhere within Syria.
Of course, one could wonder why al Nusra enjoys no safe haven anywhere, but the Russians need to get the American “okay” to bomb them. Might it be because some al Nusra is better than some other? Could it be that some al Nusra might simply be rebranded as “moderate opposition”? But still, as a first step or basis for discussions, this is good stuff.
The irony here is that while the US invented this totally fictional “moderate opposition”, the Russians actually created it with their own peace plan which did bring many units into the peace process. So now the Russians cannot simply say “what moderate opposition? There is no moderate opposition!” because the Americans will simply reply to them “what about all your “moderate opposition” at your airbase in Khmeimim?!” and they will be correct.
So yes, this is a US trap, but this is one the Russians will probably have to walk into, with their eyes wide open and fully realizing what the Americans are trying to achieve.
The fact is that by offering a ceasefire followed by a peace plan the Russians did open themselves up to an American counter-move on the political level such as what we see in this latest US draft plan. Something tells me that the Syrians and Iranians will be rather unenthusiastic about it all and, frankly, I can’t blame them. The problem for them is that they simply don’t have the means to purge Syria from the Takfiri terrorists on their own.
As for the Russians, they will have to accept this plan, hopefully with some key amendments, even if the latter are not advertised, or they will have to “creatively interpret” the plan. But from the Russian point of view, the main reason to accept this plan is to temporarily de-fang the USA until, hopefully, Trump gets elected (if Hillary takes the White House this plan will collapse anyway). So we are talking about a very temporarily plan, a desperate attempt by Obama at face-saving, and a definite political victory for Russia. At least superficially. Fundamentally, this plans solves nothing because it still contains the two main seeds of war of the US stance:
1) Assad must go
2) There are good terrorist and bad terrorists
Frankly, as long as a highly ideological gang of Democrats sits in the White House these two key notions were dogma. Only a more Realpolitik oriented Administration could finally ditch this kind of nonsense and remember that politics is the science of the possible. In our times this means Trump.
The two main wars started by Obama Administration (the Ukraine and Syria) are now in a semi-frozen statis and it is unlikely, though not impossible, that some major development could happen. The Russians have neither the means nor the inclination to do “something big” as for the Americans, they are now stuck in the pre-election mode, not a good time for grand actions. That, in turns, also restricts what everybody else (the Novorussians, the Ukronazis, the Syrians and the Takfiris) can do. At most the Syrians (with some semi-discreet Russian help) will tighten the noose on the Takfiri forces in Aleppo and hope for an eventual surrender/withdrawal (they don’t have what it takes to storm this large city). Of course, we should never say never, but my bet in on a sluggish continution of local combat operations until the election in in the USA is over.
NATO invents new “Fulda Gap” to “justify” its deployment of troops at the Russian border.
“With allusion to the “Fulda Gap,” NATO identifies today a “Suwalki Gap” between northeastern Poland and southern Lithuania as an alleged gateway for Russian troops to Kaliningrad through Belarus, against which, NATO would be “helpless.””
That’s why we also need the “show of force” like “Dragoon Ride”: 4 weeks for deployment from Germany to Estonia, as US armored vehicles break down every few miles:
Based on news reports I’ve seen this morning, Russia has kicked this agreement to the curb and also have said there is no change in their position on Assad remaining in power until the conflict is over.
This is good news, then – they’ve avoided the trap and will continue military operations as currently implemented.
” Russia has kicked this agreement to the curb and also have said there is no change in their position on Assad remaining in power until the conflict is over.”
Any links please that you Richard, can provide please? Thank you.
Btw…Personally I don’t trust any agreement with the Crazies in the Basement ( Neocons).
Carmel by the Sea
Carmel by the Sea
Check out RT web-site regarding this agreement (or alleged agreement)
I will look for it, thank you.
Carmel by the Sea
Absolutely, Carmel. The psychopaths in Thanatopolis DC have NEVER kept an Agreement or recognised any Treaty if they decided it was in their Imperial interests not to. Negotiations with rabid dogs are a recipe for disaster. Russia is one country the thugs cannot bully into submission, which makes them crazy with rage, whereupon they may miscalculate. In any case I suspect that short of murdering Putin and replacing him with a new Yeltsin, the USA is stuck with a choice of retreat or nuclear war.
Dear The Saker,
When the information around Aleppo is the City is surrounded by the SAA & its allies and the terrorists can’t get out or get supplies; Russia is also sending in its big bombers – I think this document is the US’s wishful thinking and an attempt to save face in the public eye. They aren’t in a strong position on the ground and they still think they can make their demands (usual arrogance). They are holding the weaker hand. On top of that – as they are losing they want to join Russia now so they can say they “won” and take glory. The Russians now know the nature of the beast and I believe will not accept a document like this in its current form.
I would be very surprised if the Russians would accept this – especially after the NATO conference. However, after the Nice attack – the Russians are asking for everyone to have a united front against terror (which they have done many times before). Some French politicicans are saying the West has to work with Assad to curb the threat etc.
And last but not least – the US went to Moscow – not the other way round.
At the same time:
The US Congress has officially released the secretive 28 pages of a 9/11 investigation that allegedly involve Saudi Arabia’s role in the terrorist attack…..
“And last but not least – the US went to Moscow – not the other way round.”
No choice. Because of sanctions Russian political leaders are not allowed into the US.
Well my thoughts seem to have been correct:
Talks failed – Russia didn’t accept the US proposal…….
In regard to your comment Anon – you are incorrect – Lavrov and Putin can go to the US (just as Medvedev & his crew could go). Both were at the UN in New York last year. So they could go to the US if they wished or meet on “neutral” territory. They didn’t as Russia does have the upper hand…..they are sending a very clear message. It is the US who always asks for these meetings – not the other way around. You seem to believe all the MSM hype.
Far more likely is that the attack in Nice and the others to come will be used as an excuse to attack Syria. Then Iran and Hezbollah. The Zionazi rabid dogs always slobber in unison, towards the same ends. They don’t do compromise with the global untermenschen.
This is a first draft. The article assumes that Russia will be forced to accept as it is without their own changes to it. Does the writer think Russia is that foolish? If Russia was to accept this proposal it could have done this long before. What is the difference in the US position before and the US position now? None!
from reports mainly from SyrPer, killed terrorists are 3/4 ~ 4/5 in numbers foreigners. USA cannot call them “oposition”. USA stepped in deep s**t there. evrything they doing there is illegal. every document they try to “sell” is illegal. Russia cannot, from my point of view, be partner of killers, thieves, liars and terrorist supporters. definitely word “partner” in diplomatic jargon has other meaning than in real life. simplified, US is alien there flying over Syria. if they want to target Daesh, they can obtain targets through syria, or if they feel “disgust”, they can get targets from russian military. or simply, continue to bomb desert and let other to do real job.
I’d really like to see Russia target Daash in its HQ in Riyadh, and see if the USA wants a nuclear war to protect the most evil regime on Earth, and its genocidal Wahhabist death-cult. Eventually, when the Sauds are swept away, to the distress of brothel-keepers, drug dealers and casinos around the world, Wahhabism must suffer the same extirpation that German Nazism, supposedly, did. Perhaps Thuggism in India might be a better analogy.
Russia and what it is facing. ( http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/07/14/mush-for-brains/ ) The election in America the Babylon? Here’s our two candidates. Enjoy. Removed. Off topic – please use the cafe or the relevant thread. Thanks. Mod
My impression is that if possible the Russians and Syrians should keep pounding as hard as possible all kind of rebels until election time. Lets assume that Hilliar will win then it will be much better if Russia and Assad have the upper hand in the conflict than opposite. If that is not the case Killary might be tempted to increase the odds even direct intervention to help the “good rebels” anybody guess this might turn out a long and bloodier conflict.
But what if Donald J. Trump is inaugurated President, Commander and Chief of the United States of America?
“Thorax” No idea what will Trump do, as you may agree it depends how much he will allow himself to be controlled by the “deep power” of the US (as all the last US presidents have been). Should Hitlery be the next US president, then we know what will happen: more wars and chaos all around the planet and potentially a global nuclear holocaust.
DJT reminds me of President Theodore Roosevelt. How far did Teddy stray from the Deep Power?
this document seems like a defacto total surrender of russian interest in Syria, for usa to control and dictate the battlefields.
just a foggy way of russia to loose any mandate, and for syria to loose soveriegninity.
Most know usa is not there to help anyone, but themselves.
Their ISIS-option failed. so now they are “helping” the Kurd army. calling it something else (SDF) so it wont go under the illegal kurd “terrorist” group (it never really was a terrorist group from the start, but most of the west has allready branded some kurd forces from decades ago as terrorist groups, due to turkey-west alliance).
Anyway. usa are using the kurd-option to destabilize syria by grabbing land in Syria. and in return usa companies will get oil/gass rights from those areas. just like they did in iraq.
(its a lot cleaner option, since in many ways kurds has some real claims to the lands. but usa abuses it by triggering wars and making bargaindeals for usa companies).
Removed. Please stick to facts. Mod
Sounds like every attempt by usa to create opportunities to procrastinate, step in, create skulduggery, use gained intelligence to warn their”friends”,avoid immediate decision making eg where mod opp is holding hostages or launching an immediate counter attack…..could rus accept the prinicples here because they have been enabled by the “neutralisation” of Turkey, is their decision influended by this?I wonder how the current joint intelligence centre of rus-iraq-iran could be affected by all this, and is there anyconnection or relevance to current usa-iraq military operations…?.
Current Kurdish situation……can rus use this to influence turkey in any way to “resolve” the kurd turkish situation
Rus seemed un happy over Mistura not focusing centrally on the talks…..I wonder what is uappening there now……is this now an adaption of plan B by kerry ,btw, there seems to have been constructive ,realistic and lengthy talks in his visit to Mosvow but what is the connection usa-nato with these prposals
Shoigu has been restating joint rus and syrian success but on 15th urging usa to jointly solve the situation of Aleppo, so something going on here…after 8hrs of talks Kerry has broken off for conultations with ” whoever” he needs to consult with……
Re ‘neutralistion of Turkey’ – TASS has a timeline of the military coup:
Also says the Hizmet Gulen movement is the key actor – the chief of military staff was imprisoned by the coup leaders. They have announced they will respect the law, including Turkey’s ‘international obligations.’
Now what ‘obligations’ do they mean?
Isn’t it time for Russia to stop walking into US traps with its eyes wide open?
Why cooperate with the US when it is running rehearsals for the invasion of Kaliningrad (“Anaconda”) and Crimea (“Sea Breeze”)?
Screw NATO and the neocon Nazis and all the comprador EU vassals. If they want to see a Russian invasion, give it to them.
Saker: “The two main wars started by Obama Administration (the Ukraine and Syria) are now in a semi-frozen statis and …it is unlikely, though not impossible, that some major development could happen.”
major developments are happening. why aren’t you tracking them?
the dollar as the world’s reserve currency is finished. stage 1 was the end of the petrodollar. you missed that because your interpretation of the oil price crash was ideological.
stage 2 is the disintegration of the American political system. the Empire can’t deliver its side of the equation.
Europe isn’t just in crisis; the EU isn’t just a bureaucratic racket; nationalism isn’t just regression. the European project has failed on present terms and is entering the stage of democratization. the LEAP think tank and the GEAB publication have been on this for 2 years.
Europe is choosing between its future and NATO. it’s a somewhat fractured and chaotic process, and you can see it as either advanced disintegration, or as Europe further along in their crisis than we are in ours. both GEAB and Voltaire are pursuing the second line of inquiry.
the outlines of the next stage are already here. the Poles and the Balts are forming a cordon sanitaire against Russian expansion. they inhabit their own histories, not your fantasy world of Holy Russia as the 2nd Coming. they will likely pay for their NATO role with a debt trap. Germany and France already envision a new European core, including replacement of NATO. London has already negotiated the brokerage of the yuan into it’s Commonwealth network, and likely the EU; tho Pepe notes that London’s role does not include an exclusivity clause. (see Thierry Meyssan).
Russia and Germany need each other. it’s highly likely that a trade relations agreement is already done in principle. all of Europe, but esp Germany, are sick and disgusted with bearing the costs of Washington’s scorched earth foreign policy and they can’t afford the damage. NATO’s already split. Europe needs a new economic base.
if you look at the details (for example the chart on Deutsche Bank, the size of the unregulated derivatives pyramid, the massive spider web of financial counter-party risk, the articulated splits in all the Western power centers, the panic of the US’ political class, the eviscerated vacuum of Am culture…on and on) you see the end of a paradigm and the concerted effort of the world’s institutions to control the dissolution of Am Imperial power.
“… major developments are happening. why aren’t you [Saker] tracking them?”
Because all your ‘developments’ are plain wishful thinking. According to your scenario, there is very little left to be done for the Azion empire to crumble, NATO to collapse and the EU to disintegrate.
Mind you, you are perfectly right to point out that major fissures are emerging from the Empire’s arrogance for controlling the world, but the dollar (the fundamental, yet flimsy, rock of Azion’s dominance) the demise of which has been predicted for decades, will remain so for many more decades to come because “it is too big to fail”, that is, not even China or Russia for that matter, want the collapse of the financial casino on which they also depend and are committed to.
We need a big dose of realism to shape reality.
reply to Kim:
NATO won’t “collapse”- it’s eroding. its current role is degrading American power. the EU won’t “disintegrate”, the new Europe is a generational project. the “Azion empire” is an ideological construct of this site (and that’s another essay), and it won’t “crumble”. your language and your thinking are reductionist.
it’s not American “arrogance” that’s ending dollar hegemony; it’s the staggering scale and corruption of “financialization”, which isn’t even capitalism; and the historical expiration of the WWII order. we are all living thru a global revolution as disruptive as the Industrial revolution.
i recommend you pay attention to Jim Rickards, who taught the Pentagon “currency wars”. start with the vid below. his book, the End of Money, is well written and accessible, and i esp recommend ch 3& 7. high finance is not simple. you have some catching up to do.
Rickards is a charlatan. If your arguments are based upon Rickards your arguments are a snot valid.
Rickards is telling us that the world has overrun the modeling that runs it. you think that’s charlatanism? the Pentagon doesn’t think so.
have you read the 2 chapters i reference?
Washington’s foreign policy hasn’t turned from “slash and burn” to “crash and burn” because of Rickards.
Bogdan is right, EU leaders have understood that or they reshape the fundations of this community in order to be more in accordance with the people´s will, as it is being screamed by the results of left parties in the last elections on EU members, or they risk a dangerous u-turn to the far right and then to fascism again reigning all over Europe, and they all know what this means, obviously, not the American elite and American people, who always remain safe in the other side of the Atlantic.
In his recent visit to Spain, to make sure that the new government coming out from the last elections remains under their control, third political force, Podemos, in its scarce three minutes allowed of interview with the “world boss” was able to tell Obama that they were in favour of a strongest EU more connected with people´s interest ( what must be read, “forget about TTIP” ), that they did not agree with NATO where Spanish military men are under US generals orders, and that they did not agree with US Army impunity all over the world.
Also, Pablo Iglesias took the short opportunity to gift him a book about the “Lincoln Brigade” of volunteers who fought against fascism in the Spanish Civil War…..
Three minutes well used, really.
Of course, the leader of Podemos, after these premises and following the Russian custom, also told about the need of remain being “good partners” with the US…..
“The twilight of NATO” by Thierry Meyssan
Rule #1 regarding dealing with the USG, especially from Russia’s pov: never trust the USG, ever. Especially mere words on a piece of worthless paper.
According to Mercouris, Putin – Kerry talks have broken down.
Although not sure if it was about this particular proposal…
Or maybe not.
Also saw the coup in Turkey may have started. Anyone?
Why would Russia agree to any of the American duplicitous wordsmithing? Remove the foreign forces in Syria including the US, UK, FRA, GER, TUR. Russia cannot fight on the ground in Syria, but they can obliterate the majority of the mercenary ground forces of the US-Saudi-Turk-Israelis.
Why are former Croatian now CIA- ISIS MiG-21s being allowed to fly from Israel and Turkey? Why are they not shot down?
The Russians are seemingly unable to play tough with the American gangsters.
After reading this crap, I thought it was like an agreement of rendition for Russia and Syria.
Then I have heard the news about the military coup in Turkey and all makes sense.
It could well be that OTAN will intervene in Turkey and so they will need any excuse to proyect their influence to Syria. Most probably all this was planned in the last NATO Summit. When I say “all” I mean that these are many casualities for me, the yesterday visit of Kerry, the Niza Attack, this JIG crap and the coup in Turkey.
It seems to me the Russians can just call this a very constructive and interesting proposal and that they will study it. “We’ll get back to you after that.” And when they do, they can accept the proposal “with certain modifications” that the US is certain to reject. All the while continue the campaign as the military thinks is best.
That is how the game is played. Russia must block any further attempts by the ziowest to rearm the terrorists. It is clearly intended to cause as many casualties to the Russians as possible, and eventually cause a collapse of the Syrian army.
There really is only one way to win: Let the Russian military set the campaign as best as they can with the resources available. Let the diplomats paint it as pretty as possible.
The Russians will not have to sign this crap under any concept .
This agreement for another CoH comes, as always, when the rats from Daesh and Al Nusra are falling on hundreds by the operations of the SAA and its allies, like Hezbollah, in Alepo:
In the same line, since Hezbollah transferred its best units for the battle in Alepo and so have been an important part in the success of the last operations, the following paragraph is aimed to avoid Hezbollah´s support for the SAA:
“….prevent the flow of fighters, weapons, or financial support to UN designated terrorist groups across the Syrian border….”
It seems that Kerry was told in “full and frank” terms yesterday in Moscow, as was reported by the old strategist…..
One fervently hopes that the forces extirpating the Wahhabist death-squad army have a ‘take no prisoners’ policy. Return like with like and see to it that they do not live to kill, rape and crucify children another day.
No jokes about red suitcases yesterday in the Kremlin……as you can see by the photos:
Comrade Surkov was very serious even that time, when the joke on the red suitcase…..
Stay strong Russia! This is a totally insulting document even in Anglo cultural terms. The only way to respond to it is to take a red pen and ink out offending sections, add your language and return it to Kerry to take back to whoever sent him with this miserable distraction. Then say “, of course, we have to consult with the legitimate government of Syria on this matter as their planes will also be flying missions.”
At least you would get some respect.
Erdogan has flown the coup. Germany has refused refuge. Maybe Qatar will take him?
Please consider the helicopter recently shot down in Syria. This was a USA warning that if Russia continued attacking their “rebels” USA would arm same “rebels” with anti-aircraft weaponry. This has been threatened by the Americans before and remains a hotly contested topic among top brass.
Secondly, this offer was made over a week ago and both Putin and Lavrov both broke into laughter when they were presented with it. Their major source of amusement was the “requirement” that safe zones be established within Syria where supposedly moderate rebels were not to be bombed.
Third, why would Putin help Hillary? Obama wants to tone things down for a few months but their goals in Syria have not changed one whit. I think Putin is aware that Obama is not going to escalate on his way out of the door, (unless/until the polls are firmly against Hillary) it would be bad form and rob her of her claim to fame. He will give the go ahead to arm the “moderate rebels” with manpads though, so we can look forward to civilian airliners being shot down over the Christmas holidays. Thing is, when they do release the manpads and if a Russian fighter is shot down, no aircraft will be safe in Syria. Russia will not use the S-4/500 to knock them out of the air. It will use the same manpads that the US distributes. Plausible deniability. That is my take on how things are going to play out.
I doubt Putin seriously considers this offer and will continue to do as Veritas says below, “consider it for all eternity” and continue to wage this war as he sees fit.
A good reminder, b4real, of the American war party’s enthusiasm for death threats. Thank you. And you take care too.
The Russian response to the US arming ISIS with advanced US MANPAD’s was to bomb the CIA base near the Jordanian border, and resort to high altitude carpet bombing.
The real battle Russia is fighting against the USA is financial.
For every dollar Russia spends in Syria, the US spends 1,000.
The Chinese are doing the same in Asia.
The plan is to bankrupt the USA, just like the USA bankrupted the Soviet Union.
The plan seems to be working very well.
Haven’t the link handy, but Voltairenet reported al-Nusra had kidnapped Fijian Blue Helmet peacekeepers in the Golan Heights, where the Israelis have been using them against the Syrains.
It requires a UN intervention, and a ransom was paid for their release.
So al-Nusra or Syrian Al-Quaeda are becoming a pr liability – the hawks/neocons cannot market them as moderate, and the fact that thy are clearly Israeli proxies can no be longer concealed. So this looks like a damage-limitatiin exercise rather than a trap.
Other news according – a number of secret meetings featuring top French and Italian generals indicating a pro-Assad switch in policy..
And then along comes a terror-attack in Nice, which also followed the decision to lift martial law.
I don’t see the up coming elections as any kind of deterrent on US-NATO operations as one administration flows seamlessly into another. If the Americans are not going to implement something ‘big’ it is because the situation won’t allow for a ‘big’ action. The west has driven the current situation and made this an existential fight and becoming ‘frienemies’ in Syria is a ruse de guerre to enable US agenda in Syria and beyond. This is not an offering of a possible extension of the olive branch but an attempt to handcuff the Russian efforts in their assistance of their ally, the Assad regime. If Russia accepts, the deal will be expanded to further restrict the Russian force deployment or pressure will be exerted elsewhere in this hybrid war meant to crush Russia as an obstacle to western Apex Elite world hegemony. The Americans always play a zero sum game and acceptance of this deal will weaken the Syrian situation of those opposed to the American agenda. Better to stay as strong as possible in this fight even if that means the status quo.
“Russian efforts in their assistance of their ally, the Assad regime.”
Agree 100% with everything you said including the seamless flow of one (US) administration into another, the indicator of a pervasive state of affairs of an institutional regime impervious to change.
Why don’t you simplify language and thought process and apply to the US the pejorative used to describe the Syrian government?
The author (Saker) clearly points out that the US proposal is a trap, like many others coming from that side since the revolting colonialists decided that they could pocket for themselves the taxes sent to George William Frederick.
But that ‘trap’ has been set up by the Russian themselves with endless pathetic requests for co-operation with their ‘partners’ knowing very well that in any ‘partnership’ with the Empire they would be playing second fiddle and be used to further the Empire’s goals.
It’s almost beyond belief that in their geostrategic thinking they believe in Uncle Sam’s ‘good faith’, another oxymoron of my invention.
This American proposal does NOT have to be a trap for Russia, if only Russia would stop going along with America’s pathetic lies about its phony “War on Terrorism.”
As long as you try to appease America with some desperate delusion that you can be its “partner,” the USA will continue its thinly disguised wars of aggression until it has subjugated YOU.
The USA has been arming and backing the very Islamicist terror groups that it (comically) claims to be fighting. The USA, for instance, has armed and supported jihadist terrorism in Syria, in Libya, in the Balkans, in Russia, in China, and in Africa.
As analyst Dan Glazebrook has stated, America is an arsonist masquerading as a fireman.
Russia knows this, but it refuses to call out America for the terrorist empire that it is.
The American Empire has NO clothes–and it is long overdue to expose the self-styled “Land of the Free” for what it truly represents.
The United States of America is the world’s leader–not in freedom or democracy, as it loves to boast–but in state terrorism.
America Is Running the World’s Largest Terrorist Operation
Is America the World’s Largest Sponsor of Terrorism?
ISIS is a US proxy army
Good news..guys and ladies!
1. After twelve hours negotiations, Kerry and Nuland left with nothing. Kerry looked pale as a ghost when he was leaving. Russia rejected everything.
2. Pentagon started the military coup in Turkey, the moment Kerry knew that they weren’t getting anything. France knew something was/could be coming. They “temporarily” closed their missions two days ago and left.
3. Pro-NATO military coup failed after a few hours. They immediately closed the straits of Dardanelles for all ships. They wanted closer relations with NATO and Washington and new constitution. Turks want closer relations with Russia, and no Washington. Turks want to survive and eat. Everyone knows by now that any pro- Washington coup means war, foreign occupation, collapse of economy, misery and death. Everyone talks about Ukraine as an example.
4. The US Ambassador Geoffrey R. Pyatt, who supervised Maidan, is kicked out of Ukraine effective immediately.
5. Lavrov said: it’s the world war don’t travel, stay home.
6. Russia wins again.
7. Putin is always right!
I would be surprised, shocked and in need of shock therapy if Putin fell for this claptrap.
It is the same since Sept.30th. The US wants to kill Assad, split up Syria and save their darlings from Russian annihilation.
This is just a childish document that will be used to demonize Russia (again).
Coordination doesn’t take much. They talk about missions over Syria now, to avoid mishaps.
Expanding that to alternate missions is easy work for professionals. The US doesn’t want to wipe out the terrorists. Russian will.
Carry on. Nothing to see. Kerry has never made a deal that got the US anything of value. He gives it up in every negotiation. He couldn’t even include the US in Minsk 2.
Those of us who pointed out beginning over two years ago that Turkey was being destabilized were ridiculed unmercifully by many commentors. Truth exists.
I am wondering that any genuine elements (whether being set up or not)in the coup attempt were actually pro russian rather, wanting to get Turkeys reputation back, solve kurds to avoid possibility of civil war via PKK, solve Syrian situation and refugees, halt wahabism influences from quatar saudi etc…..rt reporting today agreements made Kerry and Lavrov but being kept secret….??
Scott, thanks so much for dropping the book-writing to share your analysis with us!
“7. Putin is always right!!”
If I may ask a quick question, what is your opinion on Putin’s televised appearance after the terrorist attack in Nice?
He is normally extremely well-groomed, consistently, always. Yet I noticed in the video that he had almost a five o’clock shadow. It seemed so unlike him to appear publicly like that. I wondered if he wanted to show that he had withstood his meeting with Kerry, and was strong enough to stand and give a televised address. … Perhaps some may have been expecting him to be a bit ill or weak at this time?
A brilliant analysis made before the Nice massacre and the Turkish massacre, which could easily have been US Neo-con set up very quickly in short notice to exactly counter and attempt to destroy any balanced Russian response to the US sprung trap to catch Russia.The two sets of simultaneous massacres are to ‘set’ the trap wide open..
It is beginning to look as if the Turkish opposition to Erdogan’s policies are beginning to push the waiting US into it’s own trap for Russia. Having heard and seen and read the thousand year US plan to erase all Islam (Muslim terrorism is an US scam to control populations), Turkey was wooed by the US to trap her, It worked bigtime. Erdogan fell in.
1. Prime Minister of Turkey said that the country protecting the opposition leader Gulan, who is believed to be an organizer of the military coup, cannot be a friend of Turkey. Needless to say, he means the US. It’s a huge step for Turkey towards Russia and Eurasia and away from the West. It’s looks like Turkey has decided that non-West is winning in a standoff with the West, and has decided that they are not really “Europeans” after all.
2. The Mayor of Ankara: Russian jet was shot down by people loyal to the shadow government and by a follower of radical cleric Gulen to destroy Turkey’s relations with Russia,
3. Erdogan demonstrate a miracle of political endurance. He is not Ukraine’s Yanukovich, who is hiding in Rostov. For those saying that military “wanted” to give more freedom to people and to politically solve the Kurds problem. The military coup was pro-Washington and pro-NATO and against Russia.
I don’t support Erdogan’s polices to keep many people in jails including the military officers and journalists, but he is good for Russia. A Maidan in Turkey and Washington’s rule over Turkey would be truly devastating.
4. At the very beginning of the coup the Western media and all of the so called military experts and analysts were in support of the coup. The White house was silent. The White house expressed support for Erdogan government via its twitter account only after it became obvious that the coup failed. Washington is a fair weather friend.
5. After the coup failed, Donald Tusk came out angry and declared that now the EU will change its relations with Turkey. Oh, the irony! I can’t even comment on this here, it’s so profoundly deep. https://russian.rt.com/article/312441-donald-tusk-ne-isklyuchil-peremen-v-otnosheniyah
Now, on the EU website he expresses support for “democratically elected” Erdogan, hehehe….
The entire EU government is in Mongolia now, trying to persuade Mongols that they are truly a European nation and that they should stand against undemocratic regimes of Russia and China. Mongols listen and nod politely, thinking: “these pale devils are up to no good.”
6. For the future references, Russian internet is ablaze discussing how they would act if there is a coup against Putin: people would go on the streets in support of the president everywhere, demanding from FSB actions.
7. Erdogan said that Turkey could not be ruled from Pennsylvania.
8. Good relationships with Russia is the most important for Turkey now.
9. Turkey’s prime minister just said that the Russia’s Turkish stream is very important for Turkey.
10. Internet is full of images of Erdogan getting an Oskar for his stellar performance.
11. Ukro media is crying out that Turkey is not a democracy and that Erdogan “has to go.”
12. Turkish soldiers, arrested for the coup, say that they were told it was a drill; they didn’t know about a coup and wanted no part of it.
Although no fan of Erdo, I have been alarmed since the Ankara attack of his possible ouster.
The coup – only attempted, and not popular – wasn’t unexpected.
I am relieved, funnily enough that it didn’t succeed – it was the promise by coup leaders to respect Turkey’s ‘international obligations’ (aka NATO) that rang a warning bell.
Other good news — a report from ekurd.net that the Syrian Kurdish YPD are, despite the recent announcement of a quasi-.’Kurdistan” (Rojava) in Northern Syria – against any breakup of the Syrian state.
It seems tha t the leadership has understood there is no popular support for an independent Kurdish state , especially with the blatantly corrupt Barzani-controlled Iraqi ‘Kurdistan’ as a template.
Now, if Erdo could strike a rapprochement with Occalan, and turn Anatolia into an eco-conomy – with Marxist principles allying with moderate Islam ( with Iranian involvement), he could turn the situation completely around: and even Assad ‘s Syria could live with that…
Lysander is correct. No trap for Russia here. The Russian government is too superior at diplomacy for this to even begin to look difficult for them.
Why not to play for time? “We’ll take a good read of it soonest- promise.” Followed by, “We need to allow our legal experts in to take a look at your most interesting partnership proposal.” Followed by, “Not bad but there are some aspects we’d like to clarify- stand by.” An so on, eventually leading to, “Here are our amendments. Take a look at them and get back to us some time when you can. Oh, and by the way, how are the elections going on over there?” Bake and do again etc.
Meanwhile they continue to prosecute the destruction of the terrorists in Syria.
Thanks, Saker… good assessment. One correction, though – read S, Hersh’s Redirection (3/2007 New Yorker) – the war against Syria was not really started by Mr. O – it was ‘shrub’s’ plan from the beginning… in all its gory details and incompetence.
Thankfully, the Russian leadership completely shot this rubbish deal down.
Kerry’s offer was not a compromise, it was an ultimatum. It came just after Nato meeting in Warsaw which was US show to Kremlin how obedient European vassals are. Those who were attempting to reach to Russia were promptly punished (Nice, Ankara). Also at the table with Lavrov, Putin and Kerry sat Surkov and Nuland, therefore Ukraine was discussed.
Russia could quibble over dubious wording for months till it gets the wording it wants and Obama would possible accept. After all, it is a temporary deal.
However, America also seems to be admitting its run out of ways to obstruct Russia in Syria, so has to weasel in closer to the action and see how Russia does what it does so as to better defend its proxies.
Trump is not getting elected. The GOP monkey-wrenched their fundraising machine to steer money away from Trump. The electoral college is pro-Hilary. The topper is, the Americans are stuck on the meme that Never Trump is some kind of positive moral statement, when all it is, is a code word for Only Hilary and everything she and the neocons have done to wreck America and the world.
My own two pence on this is that it is not the agreement/accord that the US is proposing to Russia that is what is important here, it is the reason they are proposing it – & that is basically a ploy, or a side maneuver to gain some influence over Russia’s intervention strategy in Syria. One needs to take a long view, 10 years ago, say in 2006, not many people would believe that 10 years hence Russia would become a military player in the Middle East, the mere suggestion would have provoked outrage in Washington & threats of war if Russia was to even think of it. But here we are, Russia is indeed militarily engaged in the Middle East & is de facto at war – via proxy – with the US & the entire Anglo-American imperial construct. So this is an angling maneuver, trying to gain a small advantage, a foot in the door so to speak, upon which the US can then try to increase its leverage – because truth be known, Washington is absolutely desperate here. Russia’s entry into the Middle East, alongside its burgeoning alliance with Iran, is a mortal threat to Anglo-American domination in the region, which is why the Gulf monarchies are going absolutely nuts over the whole thing, they just can’t believe what’s happening. The extremity of ISIS is a kind of psychological reflection of the actual panic of those monarchies, they can see that the situation is slipping from their & their benefactor’s control. So yes, this US proposal is extremely audacious & is a trap, but I do not believe it represents a major dilemma for Russia. It will not be difficult for Russia to even agree to its main points & then side-step them when it is convenient, it’s not like they have to play by some mythical non existent rules when the US violates its own agreements & laws on a constant basis. Also, events are moving so fast that the situation will evolve more rapidly than any nonsense agreement Washington proposes can even take hold, just remember Minsk 1, that lead directly to the Debaltsevo cauldron & the near collapse not only of the entire Ukrainian military, but also a substantial mercenary network that had been deployed, consisting of a heavy Polish contingent & assortment of West & Central European Nazis, Croats et al (yes they are from South East Europe but for those that don’t know, they, like Galicians believe they are German/Teutonic by ethnic origin & are hence really Westerners, more West than West in fact). Syria is so dynamic that this US proposal, as with other proposal, will remain a talking point for about 2 minutes, & events will take over, like what just happened in Turkey. Speaking of which, I have yet to see a commentary anywhere that actually identifies the real relevance of that event – an apparently failed coup – & that is that Turkey is descending into a civil war – not the civil was of Turks against Kurds, but of Turks against Turks, that is what is really going on here – or there, as it were. Just wait & see, Turkey’s involvement in the destruction of Syria is rebounding in full effect & when it is over, Turkey will be no more, there will be no Turkish state, we will be looking at a greater Kurdistan, a greater Armenia, possibly a greater Greece & an Aramaic entity. That may seem improbable from this standpoint, but no more so than Russian military intervention in the Middle East would have seemed 10+ years ago, & it happened.
Appreciated hearing this perspective, Vor, thanks for sharing your views.
(All the comments in this thread are truly stellar, imo. It’s an impressive read.)
Phaq these khazarian mafia neocons…….
come on Putin quite leaving Assad on the ropes…..
The neocons do not have the resources for helping israhell Secret Intelligence services aka ISIS ….
The ‘gimmie free shit’ hood rats are restless…. soon nobell piece prize will have to focus on his planned martial law when the goyim wake up and get fed up with it all…..
In fat Lurch Kerry would be best served by not being allowed into Russia until he is ready to pull out of Syria…..
btw why is Russia still allowing israhell and the ussa into Syrian airspace……
keyboard commandos don’t have real time HUMINT…..
I have to say the US is looking increasingly desperate.
The US position has gone from it will take years to defeat the terrorists.
Russia will find itself trapped in Syria, like the US is in Afghanistan.
The Russians are killing the good terrorists(CIA)
The USA will ride to the rescue and save the ISIS version of Syria.
The US got its buddy to shoot down a Russian plane, hoping to scare the Russians off.
The US withdraws its F22’s, after being targeted by advanced Russian radar.
The US starts assassinating its links to ISIS.
The US forbade Iraq from attacking an ISIS convoy containing Abd al-Rahman Mustafa al-Qaduli, an order the Iraqis ignored.
The US claims it killed Abd al-Rahman Mustafa al-Qaduli.
The US hopes to trap Russia with a cunning plan, the US Government is as cunning as Homer Simpson.
Obama wants this all quietened down before the election, to aid Hillary, that won’t work either.
Will “have to” walk into? Why on earth? The arguments here are soft-headed in my view.
See for example:
Is Obama ‘offer’ for Russian cooperation in Syria too good to be true?
Looks like the JIG is up. Good points by Saker, but it doesn’t seem to me (a non-expert) that Russia has as compelling reasons as he says to accept the limitations the agreement would bind them by. Meanwhile, some fishy coup in Ankara that Yildirim blames on the US but strengthens Erdoğan for now, gives Moscow added leverage to deal with Syria on its own terms. Besides, unless the US drops sanctions, what equity can there be in any such “cooperation”? Refer to Putin’s “berries and honey” comments about the Russian bear.
I’d rather prefer Russia goes after al-Nusra, cruise missiles and all, including its rear-bases in the Golan Heights, and let’s see what Satan-yahoo does about that.
Satan- yahu, the one whose body odor exudes of sulphur, is afraid of Putin.
Security officials say Netanyahu and Lieberman are afraid of Putin
And look at this video. I have never seen Satan-yahu afraid , here look at the S.O.B.’s body language. It is undeniable , he is aware that he is next to a stronger, more capable, moral man ( Putin). I go further, in my analysis, he is almost cowering. Remember, Bibi’s father was mean, tough and an S.O.B. Somewhere in his psychic, that bastard Bibi is afraid real strong men.
Carmel by the Sea
Ps. I can see your smile Mulga through the screen. I hope you see mine too.
Kerry Leaves Moscow – Empty Handed
It seems the trap has been reversed.
What is there about this latest US diplomatic stupidity that might be difficult for Russia to go thumbs-down on? It’s simply another (desperate) American ploy. Such co-operation has already been proposed by Russia and refused by the world’ wannabe ruler. So forget about them. They will dissolve in their own toxic political chaos later in the year.
“Considering that the Kremlin has been demanding exactly that kind of cooperation with the USA for many months already”
Well that was the Kremlin’s STUPID mistake in the first place. They shouldn’t have invited trouble. It is the U.S. which engineered the war in the first place and created ISIL – started in Iraq under their supervision – in the first place. ISIL was eventually to become an excuse to bomb and perhaps invade Syria.