This article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/the-war-against-syria-both-sides-go-to-plan-b/
In view of the total failure the US policy to regime-change Syria and overthrow Assad, the time has now come for the United States to make a fundamental choice: to negotiate or double down. Apparently, Kerry and others initially tried to negotiate, but the Pentagon decided otherwise, treacherously broke the terms of the agreement and (illegally) bombed the Syrian forces. At which point, Kerry, Power and the rest of them felt like they had no choice but to “join” the Pentagon and double down. Now the US “warns” Russia that if the Aleppo offensive continues, the US will not resume negotiations. This is a rather bizarre threat considering that the US is clearly unable to stick to any agreement and that the Russians have already concluded that the USA is “not-agreement-capable”. The Russia reaction was predictable: Lavrov’s admitted that he could not even take his American colleagues seriously.
Okay, so both sides are fed-up with each other. What comes next?
The US will send more weapons to Daesh, including MANPADs, TOWs and Javelins. The effect of that will be marginal. Russian fixed-wing aircraft fly at over 5’000m where they are out of reach from MANPADs. They are currently the main provider of firepower support for the Syrians. Russian combat helicopters, while probably not immune to MANPADs, are still very resistant to such attacks due to three factors, survivability, weapons range and tactics: Mi-28s and Ka-52 have missiles with a maximum range of 10km and the way they are typically engaged is in a kind of ‘rotation’ where one helicopters flies to acquire the target, fires, immediately turns back and is replaced by the next one. In this matter they all protect each other while presenting a very difficult target to hit. Russian transport helicopters would, however, be at a much higher risk of being shot down by a US MANPAD. So, yes, if the US floods the Syrian theater with MANPADS, Syrian aircraft and Russian transport helicopters will be put at risk, but that will not be enough to significantly affect Russian or Syrian operations.
Russian escalatory options are far more diverse: Russia can send more T-90 tanks (which TOWs, apparently, cannot defeat), more artillery (especially modern multiple rocket launchers and heavy flamethrower systems like the TOS-1). The Russian Aerospace forces could also decide to engage in much heavier airstrikes including the use of cluster and thermobaric munitions. Finally, Russia could send in actual ground forces ranging in size from a few battalions to, in theory, a full-size brigade. The problem with that option is that this would mark a major increase in the commitment of Russian forces to this war, something which a lot of Russians would oppose. Still, since the Iranians and, especially, Hezbollah have been used like a “fire brigade” to “plug” the holes in the front created by various defeats of Syrian army units, it is not impossible that the Russians might commit a combined-arms battalion tactical group to a crucial segment of the front and then withdraw it as soon as possible. The purpose of this strategy would be double: to support the struggling Syrians with as much firepower as possible while, at the same time, slowly but surely bleeding the Daesh forces until the reach a breaking point. Basically, the same strategy as before the ceasefire.
So why did the Russians agree to that ceasefire in the first place?
Because of the long held belief that a bad ceasefire is better than a good war, because Russia is trying hard not to escalate the confrontation with the USA and because Russia believes that time is on her side. I am pretty sure that the Russian military would have preferred to do without that ceasefire, but I am equally sure that they were also okay with trying it out and see. This is the old contradiction: westerners also want results *now*, while the Russians always take their time and move very slowly. That is why to a western audience the Kremlin under Putin is always “late” or “hesitant” or otherwise frustrating in what appears to be almost a lack of purpose and determination. Where this typically Russian attitude becomes a problem is when it signals to the leaders of the US deep state that Russia is not only hesitant, but possibly frightened. In a perverse way, the lack of “show of force” by Russia risks giving the Americans the impression that “the Russkies have blinked”. I am always quite amazed when I see western reactions to the soft, diplomatic language used by Russian diplomats. Where the Americans openly compare Putin to Hitler and demand the imposition of a (completely illegal) no-fly zone over Syria, the Russians respond with “my friend John” and “our partners” and “negotiations must proceed”. More often than not, when Americans hear the diplomatic language of the Russians, they mistake it for weakness and they feel further emboldened and they make even more threats. It is in part for this reason that Russia and the United States are, yet again, on a collisions course.
Once the US comes to realize that its policy sending MANPADs to Syria did not work, it will have only one last card to play: attempt to impose a no-fly zone over Syria.
The good news is that judging by this exchange, US generals understand that any such US move would mean war with Russia. The bad news is that the Neocons seem to be dead-set on exactly that. Since such an event has now become possible, we need to look at what exactly this would entail.
The way the US doctrine mandates to impose a no-fly zone is pretty straightforward: it begins with an intensive series of USAF and USN cruise missile strikes and bombing raids whose aim is to disable the enemy air defenses and command and control capabilities. At this stage heavy jamming and anti-radiation missile strikes play a key role. This is also when the Americans, if they have any hope of achieving a tactical surprise, will also typically strikes at enemy airbases, with a special emphasis on destroying landed aircraft, runways and fuel storage facilities. This first phase can last anything between 48 hours to 10 days, depending on the complexity/survivability of the enemy air defense network. The second phase typically includes the deployment of air-to-air fighters into combat air patrols which are typically controlled by airborne AWACS aircraft. Finally, once the air defense network has been destroyed and air supremacy has been established, strike fighters and bombers are sent in to bomb whatever can be bombed until the enemy surrenders or is crushed.
In Syria, this ideal scenario would run into several problems.
First, while there are only a few S-400/S-300 systems in Syria, the US has never had to operate against them, especially not against the Russian version of these formidable systems. Worse, Russia also has very long range radars which will make it impossible for the USA to achieve a tactical surprise. Last but not least, Russia also has deployed powerful electronic warfare systems which are likely to create total chaos in key US command, control, communications and intelligence systems.
Second, these S-400/S-300 systems are mostly located on what is legally “Russian territory”: the Khmeimim airbase and the Slava-class or Kuznetsov-class cruisers off the Syrian coast. The same goes for the key nodes of the Russian communications network. If the Americans were crazy enough to try to hit a Russian Navy ship that would open up the entire USN to Russian attacks.
Third, while Russia has deployed relatively few aircraft in Syria, and while even fewer of them are air-to-air interceptors, those which Russia has deployed (SU-30SM and SU-35) are substantially superior to any aircraft in the US inventory with the possible exception of the F-22A. While the US will be able to overwhelm the Russians with numbers, it will be at a steep cost.
Fourth, the use of USAF AWACS could be complicated by the possibility that the Russians would decide to deploy their anti-AWACS very-long range missiles (both ground launched and air launched). It is also likely that Russia would deploy her own AWACS in Iranian airspace and protect them with MiG-31BMs making them a very difficult target.
Fifth, even if the USA was somehow able to establish something like an general air superiority over Syria, the Russians would still have three formidable options to continue to strike Daesh deep inside Syria:
1) cruise missiles (launched from naval platforms of Tu-95MS bombers)
2) SU-34/SU-35 strike groups launched from Russia or Iranian
3) supersonic long range bombers (Tu-22M3 and Tu-160)
It would be exceedingly difficult for the US to try to stop such Russian attacks as the USAF and USN have not trained for such missions since the late 1980s.
Sixth, even a successful imposition of a no-fly zone would do little to stop the Russians from using their artillery and attack helicopters (a difficult target for fixed-wing aircraft to begin with). Hunting them down at lower altitudes would further expose the USAF/USN to even more Russia air defenses.
Seven, last but not least, today is not 1995 and Syria is not Bosnia: nowadays the Europeans don’t have the stomach to fight the Syrians, nevermind Russia. So while some European leaders will definitely send at least some aircraft to show their loyalty to Uncle Sam (Poland, Germany, Holland and maybe one 2nd hand F-16 from a Baltic state), the regimes that matter (France, UK, Italy, etc.) are unlikely to be interested in a dangerous and completely illegal military intervention. This is not a military problem for the USA, but would present yet another political difficulty.
To sum all this up I would simply say that if the Americans and their allies have a huge advantage in numbers, in terms of quality they are outgunned by the Russians pretty much at all levels. At the very least, this qualitative edge for the Russians makes the imposition of a (completely illegal!) no-fly zone over Syria an extremely risky proposition. Could they do it? Yes, probably, but only at a very substantial cost and at the very real risk of a full-scale war with Russia. As I have said it many times, Syria is smack in the middle of the CENTCOM/NATO area of “responsibility” end at the outer edge of the Russian power projection capability. Where Russia has tens of aircraft, the Americans can bring in many hundreds. So the real question is not whether the Americans could do it, but rather whether they are willing to pay the price such an operation would entail.
At a political level it is important to repeat the following here:
1) The US presence in Syria – all of it – is completely illegal and has no UNSC mandate
2) Any and all US military operations in Syria are also completely illegal
3) The imposition of a US enforced no-fly zone would also be completely illegal
While this has not stopped the Empire so far, this might offer the Europeans a perfect excuse not to participate in any such operation. Of course, the Americans don’t need any European air force to try to impose a no-fly zone on Syria, but politically this would definitely hurt them.
Finally, there is one more problem for the US to deal with: the imposition of a no-fly zone over Syria is a very large operation which would require hundred of aircraft. Where would the US operate from? I might be naïve here, but I don’t think that Erdogan would let the US use Incirlik for that purpose. Iraq would most likely at least try close its airspace to any aircraft participating in such operation, especially if Syrian or Russian forces are hit. This leaves Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and US aircraft carriers to launch from. None of them are very suited for that: Jordan does not have the infrastructure and is too close, Israel would not help the US against Russia and neither would Egypt. And while the Saudis have excellent facilities, they are far away. As for aircraft carriers, they are the best option, but they are far from ideal for a sustained air campaign (which the imposition of such a no-fly zone would be).
Again, none of that is a show-stopper, but it very substantially complicates the work of US planners.
The risk of a US attempt to impose a no-fly zone over Syria will remain very real for the foreseeable future unless, of course, Trump beats Hillary to the White House. If Hillary wins – then that risk will sharply escalate. As for Obama, he probably does not want to stick a big stick in such a hornet’s nest right before leaving the White House (at least I hope so). Finally, regardless of who actually sits in the White House, the idea of imposing a no-fly zone over Syria would have to be measured against the so-called “Powell doctrine” of military interventions. So let’s see how this plan would measure up to the series of questions of the Powell doctrine:
Q: Is a vital national security interest threatened?
Q: Do we have a clear attainable objective?
Q: Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed?
A: Yes, and they are potentially extremely high
Q: Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted?
Q: Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement?
Q: Have the consequences of our action been fully considered?
A: Yes, and the biggest risk is WWIII against Russia
Q: Is the action supported by the American people?
Q: Do we have genuine broad international support?
As we can easily see, this plan fails to meet the minimal criteria of the Powell Doctrine on most points. So as long as somebody mentally sane is in the White House all this talk should remain what it has been so far – empty threats. Of course, if Hillary makes it into the White House and then nominates a maniac like Michèle Flournoy as Secretary of Defense along with a national security team composed of rabid warmongers then all bets are off.
Please consider that before you go to vote.
Scary thought, but perfectly coherent. The Yanks at the moment remind me of an Aussie limerick: “When in trouble or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.” That’s exactly what they are doing lately, as their so-called diplomacy (meaning piling verbal bullshit on top of bullshit) isn’t working, and Russia is clearly not afraid of their military might either. So neither the carrot nor the stick are working for them. This must be quite a shocking realization to the exceptional and indispensable nation, and it is highly likely that their next step will be an irrational one.
I agree that an adventure of the magnitude required to impose a no-fly zone over Syria would come at a prohibitive cost, but I’m afraid that that’s exactly what weapon manufacturing warmongering lobbyists are gunning for. They imagine a flood of new orders for their wares and salivate orgasmically. Their calculators don’t have buttons to calculate the number of lives that will be lost on all sides.
I’m affraid Killary will get in, and all this will actually happen. The Syrian nightmare has long since stopped being about “what can we gain from this” and became “how dare they to oppose us!”. And Killary is the perfect embodiment of that breed of arrogance.
This analyze contradicts what I have heard, for example.
The US will send more weapons to Daesh, including MANPADs, TOWs and Javelins. The effect of that will be marginal. Russian fixed-wing aircraft fly at over 5’000m where they are out of reach from MANPADs”
-Yes, Russian aircrafts can fly higher, but not when they want to bomb accurate, to be able to be good CAS they need to be able to drop bombs accurately, and they cant do that from 5000m, what-is-more, manpads will have a huge effect on helicopters and plans, that will mean before an offensive al-qaeda will preposition manpads all over the area and everytime a Russian aircraft or helicopters comes it will be bombarded by multiple missiles, probably ever few minutes.
Manpads will basically mean the Russian support for Syria is over.
Nope …. delivery of MANPADS would be suicidal for the USA and Europe.
Yes, in the sense it would nullify Russia airsupport for the Syrian government, which would cause the Syrian government to collapse and 5-10 million of rapefugees along with al-qaeda members and supported to flood in Europe and USA.
No,in the meaning that the Russians would likely arm the Syrian ground forces with a similar weapon. And they would use it to blast US and other aircraft from Syrian skies. More than likely they also know the routes and people involved with feeding the terrorists their weapons. Russia would have no reason not to destroy those routes and the foreign backers of the terrorists if they were being attacked. I personally have always believed it was an error not to have done that months ago.It was a mistake in Afghanistan in the 1980’s not to have “taken out” the suppliers of the terrorists at that time. And its a mistake not to do it today.They know who and where they are,destroy them.An object lesson,will save more lives in the future.When bullies believe they are “invincible” to harm themselves.They have no problem with sponsoring terror.Seeing some of themselves being “neutralized” around them.Would bring reality back to them. And they would not be so anxious to sponsor terrorism.
Nah. If Syrians shot down a USA plane, that would only serve as casus belli for USA and allow them to destroy the Syrian government.
Russia already know the routes and have been bombing them for a year. And the foreign backers are Turkey, Saudiarabia, Qatar, and the rest of NATO, hardly something Russia could destroy.
What are you blathering about?
Russia has bombed the hell out of these parasites and they are as good as finished.
Supplying manpads to the terrorists would be an act of desperation threatening aviation throughout the world. Also two can play at this game and NATO and Israeli aircraft could be targeted likewise. Any escalation on one side will be countered by the other all the way up to an including a full nuclear weaponry exchange, and the slope of escalation increases rapidly with each escalating act until that drop off is reached. If the American led anti-Assad forces start supplying Daesh et al with man pads this will be a clear indicator that continued escalation is to be expected and a policy of brinkmanship is to be further deployed until cooler heads prevail in the west or the facts of continued escalation reach an end point beyond which all out war is the only option besides ‘blinking’. Who of the unelected oligarchy in the west will make this ultimate decision, some old man with not much life left to live with a bunker he thinks will protect him and his, and would he be obeyed?
USA doesnt really care about that, in fact, the more they lose to terrorist the more the neocons gain ground. If a civilian airliner was shot down by a manpad supplied by neocons in USA, the neocons would grow stronger.
The problem with the nuclear threat is that Russia is a state with sense, and NATO are senseless puppets, total lunatics. The oligarchy who rules the west doesnt care at all about their military or citizens, in fact when they are not making life for people in other countries horrible, they are doing the same to their own citizens. These oligarchy wouldn’t care at all if there was a nuclear war, as long as they would survive it and continue to live in luxury.
Russia of course is not like that, and does care about its people and their survival.
full out nuclear war
continue to live in luxury
No, it isnt, that is the problem. A nuclear war would only damaged the majority, while a tiny minority could live on as before.
But the oligarchy wouldn’t be able to buy Credit Default Swaps to guarantee that the they would live on as before, i.e, in luxury.
their butlers gone, and groundskeepers and upstairs maids and the clubhouse at the country club, toast, the favorite restaurants, direct hits.
And the gas stations. THE GAS STATIONS. Run by the Bloods and the Crips until there was no more 91 octane left.
The horror. The horror.
This is not true, for example the NATO air campaign against Serbia was waged from above 5000 meters due to the manpad threat. So the bombings will continue, just like in Serbia.
NATO has a lot more guided bombs then Russia has, and a lot more planes, Russia only has a few tens of planes in all of Syria.
So you think the war will hinge on the unequal number of guided bombs.
The true war between the US and Russia will be nuclear where both sides will have nuclear parity capable of destroying the whole earth, the blessed 1% included.
No, you are not reading the comments properly. The commentaire was comparing NATO war against Serbia above 5000m with Russia war against al-qaeda in Syria above 5000m.
The difference here is that NATO has much more guided bombs then Russia. So Russia would not be able to conduct the war in Syria from 5000m as effectively as NATO did in Serbia.
Also, all nuclear weapons on the planet would barely scratch the earth, they wouldn’t even exterminate humanity. The most powerful nuclear weapons will destroy a single human city. That is not a very large area if you compare it to the size of the planet.
Methinks you are already breathing the dust of depleted uranium!
In this thread of almost 20 comments, 11 are by Anonymous, but expressing contrary views.
How many Anonymouses are there here?
Or is it just one, debating himself and others for fun and practice, like some, including myself do, occasionally, with chess?
Hard to tell. Even harder to join the debate.
” The most powerful nuclear weapons will destroy a single human city. That is not a very large area if you compare it to the size of the planet. ”
Are you smoking something?
The fallout covers vastly greater areas.
There is no nuclear “war”, there is only nuclear holocaust.
Live by the false flag/manpad, die by the false flag/manpad.
Give them to murderous terrorists who hate you as much as they hate everyone else, and soon your military and commercial aircraft fall out of the sky.
“The quality of manpads are not strained. They droppeth airplanes from the sky as the gentle rain from heaven. Upon the place beneath.
They are twice blessed: They blesseth him that giveth manpads to the insane and him that loseth aircraft to the insane … NOT
Remember this two weeks ago
American commandos ‘forced to run away’ from US-backed Syrian rebels
Imagine if the US-backed Syrian rebels had manpads and Samantha Power was flying over in a plane!
Give them to the Jihadis and air travel will be over full stop.
They already have… 2000 Stinger missiles taken from Libya, that Ambassador Stephens was trying to buy back from the gangsters when Benghazi went down to stop him.
Manpads not necessarily a problem for Russian helicoters. Look up: “Vitebsk”
or an escalation to carpet napalm bombing. This happen long time ago in Dresden and all people out of the shelters were burned out, and all people inside deep underground shelters were poisoned by the smoke.
It is not 1980s Afghanistan war, they have high end positioning technology to strike from any altitude.
The Killery is to Obama as Johnson was to Kennedy.
If she wins then the worst case scenario is likely.
If Trump wins then it’s 50/50.
The worst case scenario is likely no matter who wins in November.
In foreign policy both Trump and Clinton will be taking orders from the Pentagon.
Not Trump, but Hillary, Trump will make america great again and save the world.
The Pentagon will make him an offer he can’t refuse
If you believe Trump is better than just like “hope and change” Obama, then you are very naive. It is a false sense of choice at the rate how US is waging wars around the world. The US will not reverse years of war plan because Trump is in office. Have a feeling this war decision is with agreement in the US government as a whole and can’t be changed by a single person who happened to be a president.
From what I have seen so far, the Russians won’t hesitate to bomb the hell out of any “humanitarian aid package” that MIGHT be supplying terrorists with weapons that pose direct threats to the Russian armed forces operating in Syria. We must at ALL TIMES remember that Russia is not AFRAID of using force against the US.
Russia is very afraid of using force against USA and will avoid it at all cost, it would be the neocons/liberals dream if Russia bombed americans troops or shot down an american plane, Hillary would laugh with joy.
Hillary would laugh with joy
Because she is too brain dead to know who Gavrilo Princip was and what he did.
Russia could always bomb NATO specialists working with ISIS but claim that it was just a mistake.
The Russians killed quite a few of the American special operators in Syria and will go on
That’s why Kerry or better Kohn was so upset
“Russia is very afraid of using force against USA and will avoid it at all cost, ”
Apparently you are not aware of the bunker housing US senior intelligence officers who were in control of drones around Syria being pulverized by Russian cruise missiles….
Or the fact that Russia has given the US a clear ultimatum not to attack Syrian troops or bases again.
And yes, the US backed down.
End of story.
Have you noticed +Mikie that the media these days in Oz never have an anti-war comment? I’m old enough to remember the days when there was significant anti-US feeling and a definite anti-war push. Times have changed since we became an bonified US puppet state. Every war, we are there, any trade agreement that doesn’t benefit us, we sign up. The press even has a heavy war monger Hillary bent.
I miss the days when we actually had an independent foreign policy that was at least supposed to be in the country’s interests rather than slavishly supporting the US.
Now, why should Oz have Rhodes scholars as PMs?
That’s because the Aus. government are as full of crazy neo-cons as the Jonathans and the media is, in the main, run by the same murdochracy!
Great analysis as always. All this war talk by the U.S War hawks takes the minds of what’s really happening, that is, a crumbling economy with a debt load they can’t service, hence near zero per cent interest rates forever and the horrific reality the world now sees the U.S.A for what it is, AN EMPEROR WITH NO CLOTHES period.
“Syrian aircraft and Russian transport helicopters will be put at risk, but that will not be enough to significantly affect Russian or Syrian operations.”
-That is not what I heard, during the al-nusra offensive that captured parts of Aleppo, Russian helicopters were absent due to the threat of manpads, and Russian planes were only bombing from above 5000m making them inaccurate, again to avoid manpads. If USA flooded al-qaeda with manpads then Russia would be unable to use helicopters and bomb accurate.
Indeed. Its not looking good for Russian Air Force. Russian Mi Mil helicopters supplied with what is described in Russian media last year as (the latest electronic countermeasures), have been complete failures against even the rudimentary Chinese made rockets that some rebels use.
Also the Su34 variants tried in Syria have had major electronics problems, even RT said this. For them to admit it, it must be pretty serious. It also explains why old models the Su24 and 25 have been used so much. The s400 was completely ineffective at stopping Israeli, Turk and NATO incursions on Golan Heights and Kurdistan. Good things are that Russia has the numbers required to fight NATO. If Russia can get enough jets in the sky, it will beat NATO. Stick to the old Mig 29 (why are these not in syria?) and sukhoi 25.
I’m not sure the S400 was ever used to lock onto “unfriendly” aircraft in Syria…and certainly never fired…Turkish air incursions stopped completely after deployment and sporadic Israeli attacks henceforth launched from Israeli airspace…
Fixed wing defense against manpads is not just about flying higher…decoy flares are effective against first-generation manpads…while infrared countermeasures (IRCM) like the Russian Zenit L166 use active jamming to steer the missile away from the target aircraft…these are effective on second and third-generation manpad seekers…including FIM-92 Stinger, Strela 2-M and AIM-9 Sidwinder A2A missile…
State of the art anti-IR missile defense is Directed IRCM (DIRCM), which uses lasers to directly target jamming signals to the seeker…example is the Sukhogruz used on Su25…
As with any hardware, the biggest issue is how well it is used by its operators…flight crew training and effective tactics are key…
The Stinger myth about the Afghan war is greatly exaggerated…only 27 helicopters lost to Stingers…the Su25 ground attack jet was the workhorse of the Afghan war and each ship carried out an average of a sortie each day…only 23 were lost in total…one downed by a Pakistani F-15 while giving chase across border…This was before IRCM defensive systems were adopted, while the Stinger used a second-generation seeker that was much more effective against flares…
I’m not aware of details on the incidents mentioned where Mils have been downed by “rudimentary” Chinese rockets…certainly mistakes can happen, but I would not draw broad conclusions from anecdotal evidence…not much detail is typically released in air combat losses, for obvious reasons…
There are already manpads in theater and have downed Syrian jets…some of them possibly advanced hardware from US or other Western makers…I would say the Russian air tactics are going to be conservative for the time being, while the airborne countermeasures are incrementally tested and assessed…but we could see more aggressive, low-level attack in both rotorcraft and fixed wing…
The S-400 did not show up in Syria until the Russian began their bombing campaign at the end of October 2015. The Turks did not overfly Syria after they shot down the Russian Su-24 in November 2015.
The best tactic in dealing with manpads by the Russians will be revealed to the terrorists by their action and not in an explanation on the internet.
Above “Anonymous” post was by flankerbandit…
Also want to talk a little about combat aircraft numbers…not sure if I would agree with Saker that Russia could send only “tens” of aircraft to Syria, compared to “many hundreds” for US…
According to Flightglobal’s World Air Forces 2016 statistical report, US had 2,785 active combat aircraft as of December 2015…RF 1,438…that’s a two to one edge in raw numbers…
US has about three to one edge in military transports…1,059 to 365…
In a contest for air superiority, frontline combat aircraft play a major role…as well as SEAD (Suppression of enemy air defenses)… electronic warfare (EW)… AEWs (Airborne Early Warning)… and tankers…
RF aerospace forces has 769 frontline combat aircraft…252 active MiG-29/35…321 Su-27/30…61 Su-34…135 MiG-31…I’m including the Su-34 here since it is equipped for the air-to-air role as well as ground attack…
Active naval combat aircraft are 28 Su-30/33…and 14 MiG-29/K
In terms of support aircraft…RF has 19 Il-78 tankers and 13 A50 AEWs…
The US has 1,369 frontline combat aircraft in the USAF…803 F-16C…417 F-15C/E…with the E model having a similar mixed ground attack, [email protected] role as the Su-34…178 F-22…
Marine Corps also has 190 F/A-18B/C/D…and 111 AV-8B Harriers…
Navy has 342 F/A-18E/F…and 184 F/A-18C…
Support Aircraft include 397 KC135 tankers…and 30 E3B AEWs…plus another 76 KC135 tankers tankers in the Marine Corps and Navy…
Clearly the US has at least a two to one advantage in frontline combat aircraft numbers…and even bigger advantage in tankers and AEWs…
As Saker noted first stage of air war by US would be suppression of enemy air defenses…which include S400 batteries on the ground at Hmeimim…and S300 aboard Russian heavy missile cruisers off the Syrian coast…US can throw an unknown number of F-16 “Wild Weasels” with anti-radiation missiles to take out SAM radars…as well as a number F-15E Strike Eagles…active EW aircraft are 105 EA-18G, based on the F-18 airframe but carrying the An/AL-99 jamming system…
If UK, Germany and Italy were to support this mission they could throw about 150 Panavia Tornados into the SEAD and EW role…
There can be no air superiority without eliminating the Russian integrated air defenses on the ground and offshore… this is not going to be an easy task…
So even though numerically the US and its potential allies have greater total numbers, the question is how many aircraft can actually be brought to the fight…?…US (and assorted allies) are already engaged in air campaigns in Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and Syria (supposedly against the Islamic State terrorists)…and have a lot of assets tied up all around the world…especially in the Pacific where they are trying to challenge China…Persian Gulf where they are testing Iran…bottom line is US has a lot of equipment but is also spread pretty thin with all of these projects…
This was not the case in 1999 when Nato went all in to bomb Serbia back to 1389…Russia was on its knees…there was a no-fly zone over defeated Iraq (illegal)…but that’s about it…The 78 day Nato bombing campaign did very little to degrade Serbia’s military…and even its mobile SAMs remained a threat until the very end…despite the relative obsolescence of the equipment…
So where does that leave the Syria no-fly zone prospect…?…I would say the military men are perfectly mindful of the huge challenge of such an undertaking…and its many risks…we are talking a full-out air war here with a strong adversary…something the US has not faced since WW2…dominating the skies is something the US and Nato have staked out as their property…even the new Nato HQ building is built in the shape of wing sections…
The symbolism of air superiority is huge for this military block…and the military men know that if they get a bloody nose, that cloak of invincibility will be gone…but we can be sure that this scenario is being war-gamed thoroughly nonetheless…
The political class…dominated as it is by necon crazies…is probably more gung-ho…so I guess we will just wait and see…
The stakes are very high…If Syria stays on its feet it will be a defeat for the US…that won’t be easy to stomach…
On the other hand, I don’t think Russia is going to be bullied out of Syria by threats alone…or by ragheads with manpads…I think we can be just as sure that the same scenario is being war-gamed in the Kremlin…
If the US does attack…Russia will stand firm…and I would say that it stands a good chance of denying the no-fly zone in the end…
And if Russia starts out by concentrating on the US’s fuel depots and storage and air base runway degrading, the air war in Syria will be over a lot sooner than the Pentagon anticipated, and be absent a lot of Red Baron style dog fights.
And Erdogan will refuse the use of Incirlik to the US air force.
The Russians will probably lose their aircraft carrier, but more carriers will be lost on the other side, depending how many are off the eastern shore of the Mediterranean and within range in the Persian Gulf.
Erdogan’s busy with his own land grab in Syria. Turkish soldiers invading and putting up Turkish flags everywhere. And Erdogan hasn’t kicked U.S. out o Incirlik yet.
Where all those US/NATO planes supposedly hitting Russian defenses be coming from?
Turkey, Iraq, Saudiarabia, Qatar, USA has military bases all over ME.
I will get to the questions raised about airfields, targeting naval assets etc…
But first I think it is instructive to take a closer look at the 1999 Nato air campaign against Serbia…Operation Allied Force mustered 1,031 aircraft plus 30 attack ships and submarines (including aircraft carriers USS Theodore Roosevelt, HMS Invincible, and France’s Foch) from 13 NATO countries…led by US…including UK, Germany, France, Italy, Turkey, Canada, Spain, Norway, Portugal, Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium…
Despite this huge firepower and the grounding of the small and ineffectual Serbian Air Force…the 78-day operation operation never succeeded in fully suppressing the Serbian air defenses…
“The persistence of a credible SAM threat throughout the Kosovo air war meant that NATO had to dedicate a larger-than-usual number of strike sorties to the SEAD mission to ensure reasonable freedom to operate in enemy airspace.” — Dr. Benjamin S. Lambeth, Aerospace Power Journal, Summer 2002.
“The Federal Yugoslav Integrated Air Defence System (IADS) survived Operation Allied Force (OAF)…Serbia certainly left Kosovo, and suffered a tremendous amount of damage to its infrastructure in Serbia, yet in the face of an air campaign that at the end numbered over 1,000 aircraft, Serbian combat power remained substantially intact. The number of sorties generated by the NATO forces, particularly the United States Air Force, left them short of spare parts and munitions, required increased maintenance, and a force reduced in effective size due to the decreased fatigue life of many aircraft. This virtual attrition, with little relative destruction of the opposing forces, has shown that the Serbian military strategy was successful, even if the Milosovic regime did not achieve its political objectives. — Martin Andrew RAAF (Retired), updated 2007.
First point is that such a 1,000-ship air armada could never be mustered today…other than possibly the UK and perhaps some of the minor East European Nato outliers, there is zero political will in Western EU countries to sign up for such a dangerous and risky venture as to take on Russia in Syria…
In fact it is highly likely that even US military brass would be resistant to such action…Current USAF Chief of Staff General David L. Goldfein has fond memories of having his F-16 shot out from under him over Serbia in 1999…
“The SAM launch sites had proved to be a constant threat in Serbia, disappearing and reappearing. This one appeared right under the squadron’s route as it flew into Belgrade, Serbia, on a night mission to destroy enemy air defenses. The missile destroyed Goldfein’s engine. ‘I became a very expensive glider pretty quick,'” Goldfein recalled, at the time a Lt. Colonel commanding the 555’th fighter squadron.
Luckily, Goldfein bailed successfully and landed in a “perfectly plowed” field near the Serbian city of Novi Sad (Vojvodina province) and was rescued a few hours later…thanks in large part to massive Nato air presence overhead…
Goldfein was the second kill for the Serb 250’th Air Defense Missile Brigade…the first being Lt. Colonel Dale Zelko’s F-117 “Nighthawk”… on the third night of the campaign… USAF admits another F-117 as damaged by 250’th SAM fire…although other sources claim the hit was on a B-2 “Spirit” bomber…
Lambeth Concludes: “…NATO never fully succeeded in neutralizing the Serb IADS, and NATO aircraft operating over Serbia and Kosovo were always within the engagement envelopes of enemy SA-3 and SA-6 missiles—envelopes that extended as high as 50,000 feet. Because of that persistent threat, mission planners had to place such high-value surveillance-and-reconnaissance platforms as the U-2 and JSTARS in less-than-ideal orbits to keep them outside the lethal reach of enemy SAMs. Even during the operation’s final week, NATO spokesmen conceded that they could confirm the destruction of only three of Serbia’s approximately 25 known mobile SA-6 batteries.”
Serbian static SAMs were effectively smashed however…two of three static S-75 Dvina (SA-2 Guideline in Nato jargon) SAM battalions and 70 percent of their static S-125 Neva (SA-3 Goa) SAM sites were destroyed…Colonel Zoltan Dani’s 250’th brigade employed the static S-125 but he trained his unit to achieve a 90-minute equipment breakdown time and kept the brigade constantly on the move…
The main air defense lesson learned is the importance of shoot-and-scoot mobility…Russian SAMs deployed in Syria are known to include an S400 battalion, a fully mobile system that can deploy in 5 minutes…lots of info out there on the capabilities but worth mentioning here is the 64N6E “Big Bird” search and acquisition radar…”This system operates in the 2 GHz band and is a phased array with a 30% larger aperture than the US Navy SPY-1 Aegis radar, even accounting for its slightly larger wavelength it amounts to a mobile land based Aegis class package. It has no direct equivalent in the West.” – Dr. Karlo Kopp…
This is a lot more to handle than the improvised Serbian S-125s that gave 1,000 Nato planes fits for nearly three months…here is a map that shows coverage of the S400 in Syria…nearly all of Syria, plus good parts of Turkey (including Incirlik)…all of Cyprus (including RAF Akrotiri base)…
Also should be mentioned that S400 is the upper tier in the Russian integrated air defense system…a concept the Russians invented…with layered defenses making use of various-range systems…integration with S300 on missile cruisers offshore, Buk M-2 mobile system also in Syria…
Lower tier is Pantsir S1 and Tor M-… designed to defend higher-order systems like S300 and S400…
Bottom line from Serbian campaign was that combined Nato might could not take out antiquated Serbian IADS…due to smart Serb tactics and ingenuity that made up for lack of hardware and aircraft…
But if you ask USAF guys if they can take out Russian air defenses they will stay say that they would find a way to do it…that’s the spirit…
Correction on above post…search and acquisition radar for S400 is 91N6E…updated fully-digital design with higher peak power rating…maximum detection range 600 km…tracking up to 300 targets simultaneously…
Worth noting that current RF air defense system in Syria is up to the task of deterrence against any notions to interfere with Russian jets…not more…however, in the event of a looming US air buildup to attempt to impose some kind of goofy no-fly zone idea…that capability can be built up within hours if need be…by way of airlifting a few loads by An-124 “Condor”…or Il-76…could drop in the Almaz-Antey/NNIIRT 55Zh6ME Nebo ME…a mobile shoot and scoot VHF band radar for S400 designed specifically to counter stealth aircraft…(if not already deployed)…
Also worth noting what RF aerospace forces could throw in the air to keep out US ISR (intelligence surveillance and reconassaince) like the U2 (still going strong)…Northrop-Grumman E-8 Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (JSTAR)…Boeing RC-135 “Rivet Joint”…and AEW aircraft Boeing E3B “Sentry” aka AWACs…
These are essential for finding enemy air defense positions and controlling strike aircraft…but they would face the Vympel R-37 (400 km range) and specifically designed to take out these high-value targets…R-37 is carried by MiG-31 (four per ship) an aircraft with top speed of M2.8 and Zaslon-M phased array radar with 1.4 meter dish and 400 km detection range…holds record for longest ever A2A kill at 300 km (162 nautical mile)…
Dropping a couple of Jstars or Sentries would be a good wake-up call to no-fly zone crazies…
Also have to mention here that claimed radar cross-section of F-22 is 0.0001 square meter…that’s 0.15 square inch…about the size of a marble…considering twin vertical tails sticking out in the breeze…hmm?…but any stealth expert will tell you that a stealth aircraft in turning maneuver is very visible even to ordinary (high frequency) radar…so unless they are going to fly without making any turns you better keep your fingers crossed…
Dropping an F-22 would sure make for quite a headline…remember Serb taunts after dropping F-117…Sorry, Avion Ti Gori…(Sorry, your plane’s on fire)…
all well within range of the seaborne Kalibr and the land based Iskander.
A few bunker busters on the runways there and the coalition aircraft will need tanker refueling to get back to their runways at home.
Turkey will be the wild card. Erdogan may not let coalition aircraft take off for this untoward mission. Not only from Incirlik but from Turkey’s other air bases as well.
Erdogan has not as yet publically revealed his true intentions
“even the new Nato HQ building is built in the shape of wing sections… ”
“The design for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization headquarters evokes fingers interlaced in a symbolic clasp of unity — an apt symbol given NATO’s changing mission from opposition and prevention to unification and integration.”
(Skidmore, Owings & Merrill LLP: SOM)
Have a look at what a wing airfoil section looks like and then tell me otherwise…
Do you think the architects are going to come out and say this…or are they going to come up with some blather…those are unmistakably wing airfoil sections…
Now is huge advantage for Russia to rally world support, even turn those fighting for US or against, in support for Russia and those being controlled because Russia is fighting for TRUTH. To do this, Russia should have effective media and campain based on truth to counter propoganda coming from West. The other thing; by staying silent by Russia and Syria as victims, would only make the war continue until they are defeated. Remember, the US set up with its cohorts 9/11 to set the stage the US as vicimized who needs to go revenge on other nations that even have nothing to do with 9/11. Those nations being attacked or threatened as in syria and Russia, are the real victims that other nations are also feeling therefore, it makes sense if these nations announce this to the world supposedly if institutions such as the UN do really function.
If USA flooded al-Qaeda with manpads, how long do you think it would take before a number ended up in Europe, shooting down civilian aircraft and closing European airspace.
Well, it hasn’t happened yet and USA flooded al-qaeda in Libya with manpads long ago, but if it happened, it would just help the NATO governments to seize more power.
First the NATO regimes imports millions of non-whites, preferably muslims, and then these muslims shockingly commits acts terror and and violence against the white natives(no one could have predicted, derp), and then the NATO-government, which is totally responsible for the entire situation and bringing in a muslims to begin with, declares that it will give itself more power to solve the situation, and then it continues to mass import muslims, and for every terror attack it grants itself more power and more authority.
And you can be assured, that despite NATO being 100% behind the entire situation, from making the muslims hate the west, to destabilising the government to bring the muslims in, to actually bringing the muslims in, NATO will blame Russia and say Russia is destabilizing Syria and causing people to flee “barrel bombs and Russian bombs” to the west.
The Pentagon is running the whole show
“[..] and then the NATO-government, which is totally responsible for the entire situation and bringing in a Muslims to begin with, declares that it will give itself more power to solve the situation, and then it continues to mass import Muslims, and for every terror attack it grants itself more power and more authority.”
Absolutely bang-on money. We’ve seen this immediately after the Hebdo attacks.
I’ve said it back then (and I was just about the only one bringing it up), that in its aftermath Hollande came out saying that he will fight the terrorists in Syria, and I’ve said: what’s the use of fighting them over there (not to mention the illegality of it all) since the Hebdo terrorists were home-grown (?)
That’s like me, getting my house ransacked by some unknown random robber, and then me going to my next door neighbor and burning his house down in retaliation even though there’s a 100% chance my neighbor had nothing to do with the burglary.
The narrative gets even more cynical when you learn that France has several no-go areas, closed Muslims ghettos well known for fostering radical Islam plus all sorts of other criminal activities (drug dealing, arms dealing, prostitution, etc), hence; the French authorities know darn well where to find them, yet…! They decide to go all the way to Syria to “fight” those nasty jihadists all the way over there, rather than in their own home soil.
Yeah… sure… *eye-roll*
Then we have this whole issue that Brussels is pushing to create a European Army. The implications of this are huge, yet few people on the alternative media deem it worth mentioning, if at all. Aren’t they supposed to have their ear on the ground and ‘analyzing’ a problem BEFORE they arise, rather than forever be dissecting the problem AFTER it became an actual problem (?) Anyhoo…
This EU Army (or armed forces) would be created on similar lines to NATO: it would draft and draw personnel from all EU member States.
They can act just like NATO; if one member state is attacked by a non-member state – they all respond. But much more of a worryingly scenario would be [since a lot of folks are predicting flares of civil war in European soil in the not so distant future – because of clashes between ethnic fault-lines], the EU Army could deploy troops from one nation, with no particular cultural ties to the nation they’re being sent to, to quash the quarrel between the two sides on another nation.
A third party armed force will be far less sympathetic, to say… peoples of ‘X’ nation uprising against the policies of their own government than that same ‘X’ nation deploying their own armed forces (or national guard) comprised mostly of fellow compatriots, some of who will be bound to empathize with the grievances of the uprising side.
The point being: is that ‘they’ will use every excuse, whether… fabricated (as in false-flags) or real, as in; real home-made, random “Allu Akbar” [nothing to do with Islam ™ ] terrorists attacks, to push for, as you said; even more authoritarian powers granted onto themselves.
And now, this also includes the possibility of a brand-new multinational army: the Euro-Trash army.
[ (*) Note that the Brexit campaign were trying to blow the whistle on this issue, and the Remain campaign ridiculed them as “conspiracy theorists.” They’ve even claimed there were no such plans to create an EU Army! Yet, even a half-assed Google search, would have tell you otherwise, prior, and particularly POST the Brexit vote].
“[..] And you can be assured, that despite NATO being 100% behind the entire situation, from making the muslims hate the west, to destabilising the government to bring the muslims in, to actually bringing the muslims in, NATO will blame Russia and say Russia is destabilizing Syria and causing people to flee “barrel bombs and Russian bombs” to the west.”
Again: you ain’t wrong there either.
They couldn’t have said that at first, when the so-called “Syrian” “refugee” crisis began, because they’ve had literally: no leg to stand on.
But now, with all this western MSM frenzy about “Russia indiscriminately killing civilians in Aleppo… sooner or later… they’re gonna blame Russia for a hike in numbers of “refugees” fleeing to Europe.
Mainly to try to establish the narrative; that if Europeans don’t like the “refugee” influx they’re experiencing [and they DON’T like it! Let me tell ya], all they have to do is to look at Russia as the culprits for all their woes.
Ergo; you must support us, the establishment, the ones that are supposed to know better than you lot, lowly, unwashed masses. That we all must unite against Russia.
Here’s an example of such ‘hype’…
Apocalypse Aleppo: How an obscene array of weapons – that destroy internal organs, stick to skin and burn at 2,200F and suffocate victims with smoke – is turning Syria’s second largest city into a slaughter house
And… as I’ve always said, on the plus side, most people aren’t buying the BS. Read the comments.
But I leave you all with a word of warning. Eventually, even this popular forum, home to very vocal and/or contrarian views against the establishment, will either disappear [plenty of MSM papers already got rid of their online comment sections] or they will be heavily moderated. And I must say… the DM is already heavily moderating/censoring comments as it is, as per, so many people complaining about how their comments never get through.
Very good reasoning. The EU Army is forming already. As the German Minister of Defense said, there is a Franco-German brigade and a close cooperation between the German and the Dutch navy. One of the most “worrying” obstacle – Poland – has been co-opted for this venture, forming the so called Weimar axis (Warsaw, Berlin and Paris). The eastern-European countries have gave their positive affirmation to get on board. However, there are many questions regarding this Army :
Where would they utilize it and under which circumstances ? answering this question leads to many ramifications and other questions.
There was news that it was the Dutch under the command of US that dropped nuclear bomb on Japan. When it comes to these countries, they are very shady and hard to know where they stand. I rather prefer UK that always stands with its offspring, US. It is very important to asses shady nations such as the above, that is hard to tell their true intentions and for who and what they stand for. They trick other nations and make them fall victims.
” . If USA flooded al-qaeda with manpads then Russia would be unable to use helicopters and bomb accurate. ”
It’s good that you have acknowledged that the US works with/for Al Qaeda, but even so, Russia doesn’t need to “bomb accurate” (though they have better than jdam technology)
They can simply carpet bomb areas, and as well switch to artillery and ballistic missile strikes.
It is not the government debt load that is causing issues with the US economy. It is the corporate debt and exposure to derivatives which are the negative effect factors.
When will people learn the facts? Never, unfortunately. Most have little to no idea what the deficit/debt equates to when speaking of the federal government.
Also as long as resource exporting nations and manufactured goods exporters are willing to accept US dollars in exchange for their exports none have the US by the balls. In fact, the actual scenario is just the opposite.
If you are waiting for the US federal government to go bankrupt you’ve got a very long wait.
We will learn the facts when someone with better insight or economic knowledge explains it to us in an understandable fashion.
Why don’t you write an article for this blog explaining this matter??? Such would be highly appreciated! Cheers and TIA!
Very thorough and extremely disturbing. The Untied States public opposed any military involvement, direct or indirect, in Libya and Syria in overwhelming terms. The polling on those disasters has stopped due to the collaboration of the corporate media with the corporate political lackeys.
The notion of a no-fly zone is pure insanity. As Pepe Escobar pointed out, the decision on this is well above Clinton’s pay grade. War is not good for business. Watch for Clinton to be bounced before or after the election to be replaced by Tim Kaine, the VP candidate, who is not insane. That’s the best we can hope for.
Obama was prepared to OK a campaign of bombing Syria in 2013 with the Ghouta gas attack as the supposed crossing of the “red line” and casus belli. There was massive public pressure against it; most people could smell that the whole thing was pure bullshit and the overwhelming public opposition helped stay his hand. Then, quite conveniently, we started having high-quality beheading videos, with white people as victims, show up on our evening news shows and Joe and Jill Sixpack lost their shit. I wonder sometimes if a few generals will be the only sane ones left. We may have to count on a coup of some kind to avoid global vaporization.
What Putin told Obama before the latter stayed his hand we can only guess.
Civilian pressure didn’t mean a thing. Military capabilities did in 2013.
Obama’s 2013 ‘Red Line’ was washed away by Russian cruise missile jammers and the threatened loss of the US/NATO Mediterranean Fleet; they could fire first, but not last. Assad was more than willing to go down fighting and his anti-ship missiles with Russian guidance would have cleaned up. All NATO was fair game including Turkey.
Now, its not so clear. A large first strike from a few submarines would be difficult for local Russian/Syrian defenses to handle if Western cruise missiles and electronic countermeasures are upgraded into being somewhat competitive. Then there is the problem of who to shoot back at if Turkey and a few other NATO powers pretend not to be directly involved, but nonetheless host bases and radar facilities.
If Western electronic countermeasures can overcome cruise missile jamming and defend ships, submarines, and Mediterranean bases, U.S./NATO planners may be tempted to think that all they have to do is mess up the Syrian defenders enough for the DAESH to swarm them. If not, sue for peace and try again next time.
The problem is warfare state America doesn’t feel really threatened except by embarrassment of not winning. They think they can always sue for peace if things get too hot for them. They think they are in control because they can strike when and where they want. Every gain is incentive to push for more, every loss, a casus belli.
While those thinking about war are considering only the gains and ever less about the costs, the rest are lost in naval-gazing election and economic madness and/or looking forward to social collapse. Its like a total obsession with useless activity; hyping violence or whining at the expense of anything constructive.
War is not good for business? War (short of global nuclear) is very good for US business as long as it is held somewhere else and in fact it defines the USA.
War is its primary export.
It’s sad, but more and more I believe that the only way how to stop world destruction is to change the “export: into “import”.
It seems to me that Russia is a lot closer to the middle east than is the USA. Now what cruise missiles or mid range ICBMs fired from Russian territories can reach US Air bases near Syria? Could not Russia deny the US runways in the region? It seems Incirlic would be the last place one would want to launch from since it’s probably the easiest base to destroy.
Erdogan probably won’t let us launch from Incirlik.
He put 7000 troops around it right after the coup.
So this is where we see whether or not the US military has mutnied or not…….Dunford made it plain and I’m hoping the CoS is not as mad as his questioner. I’m assuming that the Russians have enough carrier-killer missiles and jamming capability in the area to negate any Nimitz-class nonsense. Is this the October surprise and Obama reigns until world’s end? The last leader of an exceptional nature who ended up in the command bunker eventually shot himself as I recall…..so no big payoff and speaking tour there…..thanks Saker and contributors, we are sorely in need of this kind of reasoning at this point in history….
A very thorough and interesting analysis by The Saker, much appreciated. I do however wonder if Russia would respond to Washington giving its Jihadist proxies MANPADs and Javelins, by potentially arming the Syrian Army and its allies with similar weapons to bring down coalition aircrafts in response to this aggression by Washington and in order to avoid a direct confrontation?
I am however doubtful that Washington would do so, but as you mention, with the neocons in office, one never knows.
Speaking to Reuters, an anonymous US official said that “So far we’ve been able to convince them [Saudis and Gulf states] that the risks of that are much higher today because we’re not dealing with a Soviet Union in retreat, but a Russian leader who’s bent on rebuilding Russian power and less likely to flinch”.
The US official and The Saker are correct, Russia today is not the same as Russia anno 1995, nor is it the Soviet Union of 1985. They better know this before making any stupid decisions that may very well lead to humanity’s last war.
Yes, they lost Syria (and WWIII) one year ago, it’s only a question of time, and Putin’s Russia & its allies have the time on their side. Russia needs its own money press & the world’s free press.
It is a sad situation for america. The economy is so vulnerable because of all the money that was plundered from the middle class. The one percent has done a very thorough job in the west.
For now The Saudis are financing the Syrian and Yemen conflict and providing the terrorists that needs killing. That is great for the industrial military complex. The problem is the 9/11 bill against the kingdom. It does attack the petro dollar from what I understand. Also, the monarchy is running out of money.
My question though is, do you bomb american troops when they show up in Syria? What about Turkey? Do you bomb them as well? The pentagon would probably prefer to go to war then face the cold reality of military spending being cut.
My own views is that killing americans is not the objective. Washington is already toast. The more terror they unleash and the more damage they do to the world economy ( which they control after all). After a while, they defeat themselves. The realists like Kissinger and Brzezinski have already stated that a change in approach is needed. The neocons went in Irak thinking peak oil would save the day. It did not.
The empire gambled and it lost and the time has come for the one percent to keep the money they made or Putin will just have to deal with them the same way he dealt with Berezovsky.
Just a couple of additions to your catalogue of what the US faces if it ups the ante in the sixth year of fighting about the attempted Syrian regime change.
As far as a US no-fly zone is concerned, such an escalation by the US would be met with with a second declaration of a no-fly zone this one enforced by batteries of S-400 of the Russians, which would result in a total no-fly zone in which neither side dares to fly.
How the Saker knows how many batteries of S-400s the Russians have mobilized in Syria is one of those mysteries we should not question. Putin himself may be uncertain about the number, but the Saker is not.
Finally, what both the West alliance and Russia are waiting to see is China putting some skin the game. Like a division or two spread around the pockets of rebels in mostly government controlled Western Syria. There’s no telling exactly when that will occur — or even whether Russia needs the help — but don’t be surprised if some units of the PLA soon take up positions in Syria.
We read that Russia is returning more of its jets to Syria.
This must be because pockets of moderate rebel and terrorist fighters have been eliminated from the Damascus and Latakia areas near where the Russian planes are based.
Which means when Putin withdrew half of them early this year, it wasn’t because their work had been completed, rather that the US was probably arming the nearby opposition for mortar/missile attacks on the Russian air assets.
okay…this is not a bad crystal ball piece…
First Question: Are the maniacs actually going to go to war with Russia to rescue their flatlining Syria project…?
Answer: Definitely yes…they will TRY to implement a no-fly zone for the simple reason that their terrorist proxies are getting creamed on the ground…they have no other choice than to accept defeat, which they will NOT do…
Second Question: Is the Russian Mil capable of rejecting the no-fly zone…?
Answer: Definitely yes…Syria 2016 is not Kosovo 1999…much as the West pussies wet dreams otherwise…
Here is what will happen…US and Nato vassals are not capable of moving 1,000 warplanes into Syria theater in the next five minutes…such a large project will take weeks…it will mean lots of logistics…ie large movements of Awacs and combat planes that are sitting ducks for RF aviation to take out EN ROUTE…
Who seriously thinks RF Aerospace forces will let Nato spam cans fly around unchallenged…?
Are you kidding me…?…500 flankers and 400 Mikoyan 31s say no go zone…end of story…
Third Question: Is it going to get interesting…?…yes very much…just like ‘Nam…
Remember what Legendary Fighter Pilot Brig-General Robin Olds said: “The best flying job in the world is a MiG-21 pilot at Phuc Yen. Heck, if I was one of them I’d have got 50 of us !”
Where’s Cat when you need him…?…I don’t much care for these scared mice commentaries…
Yes there will be a real air war over Syria very soon…VVP has prepared for that…and all the boys are ready…let’s rumble…
The argument that Israel remains neutral doesn´t fit me.
If they remain neutral they would lose support from the usa. Think about it: the usa loses men in building a no fly zone and the closest allied nation, which is dircetly in the region does nothing ?
I think Israel could lose support from usa , that means billions of money. So when they stay neutal they will lose us support no matter if the no fly zone operation is a victory or a loss.
Did they have to gain from being neutral?
The russian couldn´t offer much , exspecially not dollars.
Being supportive of a no fly zone , thus going to war could bring them more land, they could fight against the palestinians while the world watches the usa – russia standoff. Ultimately they could lose some soldiers and some civilsts and damage through rocket fire but they are proteceted as a state through their nuclear arms so to say that they could limit their downside.
Also take into account that the isralis a risk taking nation that doesn´t fear war, as an outsider you could even think that they search for it.
Another point is: Why should the war stay in syria and don´t spread in the intire middle east ? Couldn´t saudi aribia feel inclined to attack iran ?
Wouldn´t the turks increase their operations inside syria , maybe attack the syrian kurds all out?
The no fly zone would would lead to so much risks that the outcome couldn´t be predicted.
Israel not burning its bridges may be more accurate than neutral.
Israel won’t fight against Russia – they are aware of Russia’s capacities, and they are close to Russia -there are millions of Russians living in Israel. They don’t feel pressured by the US to do anything, Israel is not afraid of being punished by the US< it simply won't happen.
Saudi Arabia is losing a war against goatherders while going bankrupt.
Saudi Arabia is losing a war against goatherders that is very racist, goat herders they may be but they are splendid soldiers who fight with their head and know they are fighting for their right. there has been no country or empire which has ever defeated the Yemenis.
I’m not certain that the Saudis are “losing” the war. They certainly aren’t “winning” it. But I think they are a very long way from losing it.They and their allies are deep within many parts of Yemen. And while Houthi forces have crossed the border into Saudi Arabia. They are only in the close border regions. That have long been disputed between the two. And where many people consider themselves Yemeni. We can’t celebrate or consider the Yemenis as winning until until they drive the Saudis from Yemen itself.Or until they are far into Saudi Arabia and on their way to the capital.The Saudis don’t seem to be overly “concerned”,with that problem.And are still supporting jihadi terrorism in Syria. And buying billions in military equipment from the US.If they were terrified ,they’d be looking for a peace agreement,and cutting off the jihadi support. Maybe even getting some of them to join them against the Houthi. But we see none of that taking place,so far.
Racist??? “Goatherders” is not a race, besides, the word was used to ridicule the performance of the Saudis, not the Yemenis…
hans, there is nothing racist or negative about the term goatherder.
That is not racist at all, as it does not refer to ethnicity or race, merely their socioeconomic status, goat herders just means they are poor and uneducated.
I think I’ll buy me some goats. Take some extension courses.
There is nothing racist in being a goatherd.
Actually Israel is already involved albeit not militarily engaging the Russians. In the first place, Israel remains officially at war with Syria. Secondly, the Israel-first neocons controlling US policy are already serving Israeli interests. Particularly in the destruction and partitioning of Syria. Israel can just sit back and watch the Goyim fight it out. In any case, no matter what Israel does, they certainly have no risk of having the US cut aid.
See, for example:
Militarily, Israel would not want to engage in any large scale operation that might risk substantial numbers of Jewish lives. They will still feel free to attack Hezbollah and the SAA at will. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Israel launch a surgical strike against the Russian air defenses. Israel has access to top notch tech. Either what they have developed or what they have taken from the US.
Finally, the Russians would be seriously mistaken if they believe Israel constitutes a friendly nation in any sense. The immigrants from the former USSR do not consider themselves Russian or friendly to Russia. They are usually quite bitter if anything.
I’m not certain on that. Among the 1.5 million Russian “Jews” in Israel there are a large number not “very Jewish”. Many of them came to Israel because of the economic troubles of the 80’s-90’s in Russia. I think there would be at least large groups that wouldn’t support a war against Russia. And some that would work “under-cover” to support Russia.The worry in Israel over “spies” would be immense.The US and Israel always come up with the excuse to not involve Israel in their wars in the ME, that they don’t want to “undermine US support from Muslim states.By having Israel involved”. I think they would use that excuse this time as well. Only if a massive WWIII breaks out will that be different.
Don’t forget Avigdor Lieberman, Israel’s ex-Foreign, now Defense Minister, appointed in May 2016.
“Why Netanyahu courts Putin
By Geoffrey Alderman, June 16, 2016
Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu paid a visit to Moscow to meet his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. This was Netanyahu’s third meeting with Putin in 10 months. Ostensibly, the latest encounter between these two was to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the resumption of diplomatic relations between their countries. But of course this joyous commemoration was merely a convenient excuse. So, too, were the media highlights of the visit: the signing of an agreement reinstating the Russian pension entitlements of around 30,000 Soviet Jews who left the USSR for Israel when the Cold War was at its height; and the handing back to Israel of an Israeli tank that had been captured by Syrian troops at the battle of Sultan Yacoub, during the 1982 Lebanon war.
Agreed, both these photo-calls possessed a symbolic importance. In Putin’s Russia, Soviet-Jewish émigrés are no longer regarded as traitors. Quite the reverse. They are respected, even honoured. It’s worth recalling in this connection that Israel’s new defence minister, Avigdor Lieberman, is one of them. Lieberman was born in Moldova (then part of the USSR), and is a personal friend of Putin, whom he took care to meet frequently when he was Israeli’s foreign minister between 2009 and 2012. As for the Magach-3 tank that was once in a Moscow museum and is now being shipped back to Israel, it was one of several captured by Syrian forces during the 10 June 1982 battle, in which 30 IDF soldiers died. The entire operation was a disaster for the Jewish state, and the capture of the tanks, more or less intact, an international humiliation.
Putin’s generosity in returning the tank that a grateful Syrian regime presented to the USSR 34 years ago sends a signal: whatever Russia’s role in the Syria-Israel conflict may have been in former times, that past is dead.
However, as far as Israel is concerned the present plight of the Syrian state is very much a live issue. One of the reasons why Prince Netanyahu has made himself such a frequent supplicant at the court of King Putin is to maintain a dialogue with the man who controls the deployment of Russian military personnel whose job it is to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
These personnel are doing a first-rate job. Assad – who was irresponsibly written off by the west – is slowly winning the war against a mésalliance of rebels, to say nothing of the lunatics running “Islamic State.” Israel has a legitimate concern in ensuring that the militants of Hizbollah, in the Lebanon, do not profit from this conflict.
There is now a hotline between Jerusalem and Moscow
There is now a “hotline” between Jerusalem and Moscow to prevent Russian and Israeli war-jets from encroaching upon each other’s airspace. Putin has maintained a discreet silence about Israeli bombing raids that have destroyed, in Syria, weapons bound for Hizbollah. But should Assad and Hizbollah decide to partner in launching a major ground offensive in southern Syria, Netanyahu will want – and reportedly may already have obtained – a private assurance from Putin that this offensive will not be at Israel’s expense.”
Putin is the “first friend” of Israel who’s ever sat in the Kremlin. He’s also the first friend of Jews since Lenin, who was half-Jewish himself and made sure to protect Jews against antisemitism in the Soviet constitution. However, the genocidal Stalin was able to get around Lenin’s Constitutional protections by creating a category of counter-revolutionaries called “rootless cosmopolitans” that was easily applied to Jews. Putin is the first Russian leader to seek to reverse these antisemitic attitudes and policies at both the legal and social levels–speaking often of close emotional bonds with Jewish people in his own life, from the elderly Jewish couples who lived in the same communal with Volodya and his parents and often took care of him as a young child while his parents were at work to his self-described “second father” and Judo sensei, Anatoly Rakhlin–whose funeral was attended by Simon Peres, to show the importance Israel attached to Putin’s connection with his Jewish mentor (https://nevnov.ru/56888-raxlin-mladshij-otec-govoril-chto-u-putina-bylo-ponizhennoe-chuvstvo-opasnosti). Israel would not side with the United States against Russia–if only not to jeopardize the welfare of the Jews still living in Russia and the protector they have in Putin.
Bullcrap. You are either Jewish or ill-informed. Here:
The Russian people as a whole don’t like Jews, including their Government. Putin and his officials are simply patronizing Netanyahu and his desperate attempts at subterfuge. The return of the tank was a slap in the face of Israel as it did nothing but bring that humiliation back to the surface. Putin is shrewd. So are the Eastern Orthodox Russian people.
You really think the Russians don’t know whos pulling the strings of power in the U.S. , which is acting so aggressively, and with so much hostility attacking Russia? Russians know exactly who the ‘international trouble-makers’ are. Do you think the Russians don’t know who the principal actors are that instigated and carried out the ‘Maidan’ revolution? The Jewess Victoria Nuland installing Ukrainian -Jewish oligarchs, Ukrainian- Jewish President and other very top officials of Jewish background.
Do you really think the brilliant Russians don’t know who is in charge of Western main stream media and its organs that vilify Russia and its leadership? Do I need to post a ‘list’ of the Jews who own and control western MSM? Do I need to post a list of the directors and writers, columnists and policy advisor of all the NGO’s that Russia is closely monitoring and many it has already kicked out of Russia? Whom are 90% Jewish. Soros, Murdoch, Kissinger, Albright etc?
Do I need to remind you that the Russian people, including Putin et al know exactly who financed, executed and carried out the Bolshevik Revolution? 90% Jews. How about the ‘Red Terror’, 90% Jews. Checka, NKVD , majority Jews. Gulag overlords, 90% Jewish. Est. 66+ million souls perished under the terror unleashed by Jews.
The Russian people know who tried to destroy their faith in God and their churches. No, the Eastern Orthodox have never forgot, nyet! They know exactly who killed the royal family, the Romanov’s. Lenin and Svedlov, jews, gave the order to an execution squad, Jews, who killed the whole family in a grisly manner in the house(house of special purposes, sic) owned by a Jew.
The Leadership of Russia, its people and its honorable Church are very aware and not fond at all of Jews and this includes the state of Israel.
Today, Jews (being the revolutionary people that they are) are at the forefront of anti-Putin administration opposition and its undercurrent, no matter how pathetic they are.
So, Just like in WW2 , Eastern orthodox and Muslims died together fighting side by side against tyranny on the Eastern front(inspiring stories and accounts from the Battle of Stalingrad, to name a few) ; so too will the Eastern Orthodox Russians stand side by side with Muslims again in the Middle East , hence what we see in Syria. Long live this alliance. To the determent of Israel and Jews.
Thank you-however the move by France to bring a motion to UNSC , saying all bombing ie flights must stop and anyone not complying is automatically a war crime criminal as is being mooted already and set up for Russia and Syria could be enough to turn more countries more solidly against Russia, and Russia has stated it will follow UN Resolutions……could be enough to turn usa population into ‘believers’ and ‘supporters” as this has worked before(and if that really would bother usa anyway). Turkish buffer zone-will continue to expand maybe, as Incirlik is still being used by NATO could Turkey object has Erdogan really decided which side his toast is buttered on to avoid being toasted????…someone the other day posted about usa bases being set up in eastern Syria so how does that affect things and how does Russian military deal with those……
“Last week, the US Congress approved the Stability and Democracy for Ukraine Act, or “STAND for Ukraine.” As the Ukrainian Embassy in the US has reported, American congressmen unanimously supported the bill.
The bill’s list of means for supporting democracy in Ukraine includes the supply of lethal defensive weapons systems. The legislation will come into force following a vote in the Senate and its signing by the US President. From that point on, Washington will be able to officially supply lethal weapons to Ukraine. ”
Russia will not attempt to make any contacts or negotiate with terrorist groups, Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov said.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Russia will not attempt to make any contacts or negotiate with the Daesh and Nusra Front militant groups, even if they lay down their arms, Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Oleg Syromolotov said. “These are terrorist groups, we shall not make any contacts with them. There will never be a discussion on the rights of terrorists, on preconditions. Russia will not negotiate with them,” Syromolotov told RIA Novosti. Both Daesh and Nusra Front, which renamed itself Jabhat Fatah al-Sham this summer, are banned in Russia.
Read more: https://sputniknews.com/world/20160930/1045856889/russia-nusra-daesh-terrorism.html
On Thursday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan insinuated to a group of local administrators that the state of emergency announced in the wake of July’s failed military coup could be extended for over a year.
“It would be in Turkey’s benefit to extend the state of emergency for three months,” Erdogan said at a meeting in Ankara, and brushed off criticism for prolonging the now three-month long regime, declaring that no one should try to dictate “a calendar or roadmap” for Turkey.
Read more: https://sputniknews.com/world/20160930/1045852816/erdogan.html
does that mean he can do what he wants…………..however
ANKARA, September 29. /TASS/. Ankara and Moscow are discussing the possibilities of establishing a ceasefire in Syria, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated at a press conference in the country’s capital of Ankara.
Kremlin brushes aside reports on alleged US plans to act more aggressively in Syria
Russian Defense Ministry warns US against threats in dialogue on Syria
Expert: Moscow was right to decide on military support for Syria
Moscow against seven-day pauses in Syria — diplomat
“We have strongly backed the previous agreements between Russia and the US on the ceasefire. Unfortunately, the ceasefire failed to fully come into force. Since our bilateral relations have been normalized, we have been discussing these issues with Russia. If the Russian Federation says it wants to cooperate with us in this area, then we are ready for it, too,” the minister said.
He also announced that on Wednesday he “discussed the issues connected with the prospects for a ceasefire and ways to ensure it with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.”
“Since the previous ceasefire agreement wasn’t implemented, we should continue exerting efforts to achieve another ceasefire in Syria,” Cavusoglu added.
MOSCOW, September 30 /TASS/. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on her page in Facebook on Thursday that Washington would make a great gift to terrorists if it carried out its threats to end interaction with Russia on Syria.
Kerry: US standing on verge of calling off talks with Russia on Syria
“US Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power has described the actions of Syrian and Russian forces in Syria as a ‘gift’ to the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra terrorist groups (both outlawed in Russia),” Zakharova recalling what Power had told journalists at a news conference held at the United Nations.
According to Power, these actions will provoke a huge flow of refugees and will radicalize the terrorists group, which Russia wants to stop, even more.
“Washington categorically denied the presence of terrorists in Syria for a long time. According to our US colleagues, there were no terrorists in Syria. The world learnt about the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and other extremist movements in Syria from Russian representatives. US experts are operating with these names all the time and are accusing Russia of playing into the hands of terrorists,” the Russian diplomat said.
Russian MP says US hurling threats at Moscow to force it out of Syria
Kremlin: Statements on possible anti-Russia sanctions over Syria are confusing
Russian Defense Ministry warns US against threats in dialogue on Syria
Expert: Moscow was right to decide on military support for Syria
Senior MP outraged by US saying Russia could face terrorist attacks over Syria
“If we talk about ‘gifts to terrorists’, they certainly include the merger of al-Nusra with the ‘moderate opposition’; the delivery of relief aid to the militants and the bombardments of the Syrian army, which is fighting against the ISIS,” Zakharova wrote in Facebook.
“But Washington’s refusal to interact with Russia on the Syrian settlement will be the best gift of all. If Washington carries its current threats into concrete decisions, there will be no doubt left that the White House has taken the militants under its wing and that the sun is shining down the terrorists’ street,” the diplomat stressed.
MOSCOW, September 29./TASS/. Russia will have to take into account US approaches on nuclear deterrence and take counter measures to ensure its national security, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday commenting on statements of US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter on issues of nuclear deterrence.
No comment from Kremlin on US preparations for making upgraded nuclear bomb
Russian Foreign Ministry: US responsible for lack of progress in nuclear disarmament
Lawmaker: US should restore relations with Russia before proposing talks on nuclear arms
Russia hopes US will ratify Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty under next president
“It is not only their over-the-top Russophobia, which has unfortunately become of late a norm for public speeches by representatives of the outgoing administration,” the ministry said.
It expressed “serious concern over the mentioned readiness to use their nuclear potentials in case of an armed conflict with participation of Russia with an aim to prevent our country from a possibility to use nuclear weapons to rebuff aggression,” the ministry said.
“Of course we will have to keep in mind US approaches and take necessary counter measures to ensure our national security,” the ministry said.
The US must realize possible consequences of its statements on nuclear deterrence for international security and stability, she added.
extract”The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova in an interview to “Komsomolskaya Pravda” has commented on the current situation on the settlement of the conflict in Syria.
“A year ago, came to the president of Russia, speaking at the UN General Assembly and said that we are ready to join, we want you to hear us. And we are united, because that’s what you’re denied two years ago, it still exists. It LIH and international terrorism “- reminded Zakharov.
But now, she said,” it came down to the non-fulfillment of the obligations of States that they have undertaken six months ago – namely, the separation of the terrorists and the moderate opposition. ” “If they think so far, although it is a very controversial issue, that there is some moderate opposition, which, on the one hand, fighting with weapons in hand, but on the other hand, is still not a terrorist, then divide it” – Zakharov explained, adding that otherwise “the process can really slow down seriously.”
Russian Ministry of Defense reported thwarting insurgents ceasefire in Syria. The situation escalated in Syria, said the first deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces SEI Russia Viktor Poznihir. “In the provinces of Aleppo and Hama opposition groups, taking advantage of the seven-day truce, joined the reserves of ammunition and weapons, to regroup and switched to active offensive operations in order to capture new territories”, – Poznihir said.
“We were ready to extend the cease-fire succession, trying to make its unlimited duration. However, the cessation of hostilities was disrupted by militants “, – he stated the general.
He added that instead of reducing the intensity of the shelling of positions of government troops bandit activity has increased significantly.
Poznihir also noted that the Turkish military operation in northern Syria has worsened the situation. “In violation of international law, the units of the Turkish armed forces, together with under their control units of the Syrian Free Army continue the operation” Shield of the Euphrates “, – said the general.
According Poznihira, the Russian military is evidence of involvement in the attack on the humanitarian convoy near Aleppo . Syrian opposition associated with the group “Dzhebhat en-Nusra” “We obtained additional information about the involvement in the bombardment of UN humanitarian convoy in the area of Urum al-Kubra opposition groups that are closely associated with the” Dzhebhat-en-Nusra “, – he said.
Russia will soon send experts to Geneva for the resumption of consultations on Syria, said the general. “It is envisaged direction of Russian experts in Geneva to resume consultations with the American side, in order to find possible ways to normalize the situation in the region of Aleppo and Syria as a whole”, – said Poznihir. He added that Russia expects that American partners are ready to work together.
The terrorists are preparing a provocation using chemical weapons in Aleppo with the aim to place the responsibility for it on the Syrian government forces. Also added Lt. Gen. Viktor Poznihir “We have learned that terrorist groups prepared provocative blows chemical shells on the positions of the Syrian army and residential areas in the eastern part of Aleppo in order to charge the government troops”, -. He said.
The number of settlements that have joined the reconciliation process has increased to 685. The number of armed groups that have declared their commitment to the terms of a cessation of hostilities, remained unchanged – 69.
During the day recorded 78 violations of the cessation of hostilities by illegal armed groups. The greatest number of violations (47) observed in the province of Aleppo.
The Russian Air Force FSI and Syrian opposition by armed groups, have declared a cessation of hostilities and to report to the Russian or American centers reconciliation information about their location, strikes are not applied.”
Oh those French.
They recently saw a Hollywood crime film about how ‘good cop/bad cop’ works and they haven’t been the same since.
whole of Zakharovas MFA presentation-Rus language. 1 hr 28 mins.
I believe Russia should make it clear that any attack on Russian forces as a result of potential ‘no fly zone’ would trigger a use of strategic nuclear weapon on all US bases in the Middle East.
A couple of comments have touched on this, but another, perhaps overriding, consideration is that we (the US) simply cannot afford [to persevere in] a high-risk/high-loss “small” war without end. Forget about WWIII.
Exhausted military stretched extremely thin. $20T in debt – currently. Bank health questionable (Eurobanks as well) requiring new bailout. Crumbling infrastructure (sounds cliché but is something everyone sees every day). If China stops buying US bonds and KSA gets destabilized and can’t buy either, the US fiscal house of cards goes poof (it could only take one postponed or not fully subscribed bond sale to catastrophically “shock” the system). Etc. (and there are many).
Of course the PTB/HRC could simply ignore all this and, in a classic case of “target fixation” of apocalyptic proportions, quite literally risk the end of life as we know it in the US in order to teach Russia what sane people everywhere would view as an unnecessary and/or inconsequential lesson. With all the above in play in the background, Syria is a turning point in the ability to prosecute “empire.” These psychos know that and may not fade away without one last spasm.
Who knows. Scary stuff.
PS. One last thing that might argue against the imposition of a no-fly zone is that the weapons manufacturers have a GREAT thing going right now. $Ts (and increasing) for systems that never have to prove their effectiveness/worth. If the Russian military tech is even remotely as capable as The Saker describes here, the US MIC would be fools to risk that gravy train with an actual demonstration of combat effectiveness – or lack thereof. It would be a coin toss (50-50) that they got all that money and did nothing with it. Endless questions would be asked. Many contracts would be cancelled. Voters would be that much wiser to the scam (wise enough to change it??). The people powering the MIC are a lot of things, but they’re not fools.
If the actual weapons fail , well you have to buy new ones, so if lots of weapons becoem obsolete , it could be good for the us manufactures because the politics would want to fill the gap. The old weapons could be sold/given to allies in the south china sea to fuel a war there or maybe support a putch regime in south america (venezuela maybe). War is always good for the arms industry.
There can be no effective Russian response to an American escalation without the support of Turkey. Only if Turkey breaks with NATO/US and allows Russia to fly over its airspace, can Russia do any of the things suggested in this analysis.
The “ceasefires” have only served to provide rest, resupply, and reinforcement to Assad’s enemies. They have extended the war and extended the suffering of the civilian population.
Regardless of whatever advantage that we may think that the Russians may have in equipment, tactics and training, logistics and numbers favor the Americans overwhelmingly in Syria. Add to that the willingness of the Israelis to attack Assad’s loyalists, while avoiding direct confrontation with the Russians, and a Russian defeat in Syria is all but certain … UNLESS … Turkey switches sides and supports Russia and Assad.
You are right that it would be “very hard” if Turkey continues its pro-US stance. And I believe without a doubt they will. But “very hard” is not the same as impossible. The use of long range missiles,and bombers would certainly be a need. Also the use of Iranian bases. I’ve always thought that Russia needed a large permanent naval/air base in Syria. So as not to rely on the Black Sea alone.There might come a time when NATO was able to make the Black Sea into a lake.And Russia needs to develop its sea power bases outside of bottled up regions to be effective.This crisis may be making the Russian MOD aware of that danger. And take steps to alter the situation.
“Logistics favor the Americans” ??
From the other side of the Atlantic? Nyet! It would take them months of very obvious material and troop transport that could very easily be interfered with. VVP is definitely not Sadam Hussein in ’91..
“There can be no effective Russian response to an American escalation without the support of Turkey. ”
America tried to escalate, Russia called it’s bluff, America blinked.
Game over, Russia and Syria win, America fails, again.
Case is basically closed.
Very good analysis from you Saker.I do have a few questions:
Cui bono?Why such an amazingly crazy fury during 6 years(longer than both world wars)for a country like Syria(relatively small population,some oil but not in the big leagues).Greater Israel project?Pipelinistan projects from Qatar to go through Syria?Breaking the ‘croissant chiite’?A real envy to go to war with Russia but on neutral field if I can say?
Or maybe something else much bigger?I heard recently from various sources that due to the catastrophic economical situation of the US(hundreds of trillions of ponzi debts + derivatives)they need a world war to legally(for once..)erase those mountains of debts.I searched on the internet I don’t find something which confirms this hypothesis for both WWI and WWII eventhough historians very often use this notion(more for WWI than for WWII).Everybody knows that the Sarajevo moment had nothing to do with the start of WWI just one element.
It would justify for these banksters ANYTHING if they may erase their debts with a ”good” reason..it is our fault but of course these bloody russians and their new Hitler..we have been forced to save democracy..
J Chirac former French president told a journalist quiet recently that he got a call from G Bush before they started the gulf war(the second one,France did not took part).Bush talked to him about Gog and Magog,Armageddon etc..Chirac was very ‘surprised that a US president talked to him in such a way about a possible war.He did not know what he wanted to mean.He then checked and called Bush back.Bush was absolutely believing this theory…not really pragmatic for a french cartesian.Don’t forget that the neocons à la Nuland and co believe these things.Have you ever heard about all this?
How is it possible that persons in charge of war or peace could be living in such a parralel universe far from reality and are ready to destroy lands and kill millions of people if necessary?
We are in 2016 or I’m wrong?Are we still living on planet earth?Are these people still human beings?
Washingtons war in Syria is just a chessboard piece in its war to maintain world Hegemony.
The biggest threat to this Hegemony is the New Silk Roads Hi-speed rail system from China to Europe
This trade route by-passes the US Navy control of the sea route choke points, making the US Navy Power redundant.
It also enables the by-pass of the US dollar reserve currency. Without its toll charge reserve currency, the US is an Emperor without clothes.
The US long term plan is to control the Central Asia countries, and cut/control the Silk Road., otherwise the US is a spent force. To do this they must over run Russia.
Read, Zbigniew Brzezinski- The Grand Chessboard , (plagiarised from Sir Halford Mackendrie- Heartlands Theory)
The Silk Road is one threat and the Arctic Sea route is another one shortening 1000s of miles between Chinese and European ports, which would also contribute making the US navy irrelevant. What do you think shipowners with depressed margins are going to do when they realize this? US cannot prevent the melting of the Arctic ocean and a route opening closer to the north pole. And the navy is pretty much its only real strength as a tool of trade route control.
They really rely on Europeans to do their land wars. But, you see, Europe’s condition is worsening, jihadi/sharia laws are being/will be implemented in more and more places so Europe won’t be in any condition to do much fighting. I don’t even know if we should say “there might be a civil war in Europe” as Europeans don’t know how to defend themselves. More like genocide? US and bribed EU officials are the main contributor to chaos in Europe but this time they are actually shooting themselves in the foot.
I’m curious about the Arctic route myself. It wouldn’t be much of a savings if the ships left from China. I don’t see the mileage as that much better. But instead if the goods were routed by train to Russian Arctic ports and then routed to Europe. There is a considerable shortening of time then.But in general I see the Silk road and the maritime roads as “options”.Giving China multiple routes to ship goods. And preventing the US from being able to blockade Chinese trade.Once the land routes are completed US economic blackmail is forever finished.
@Why such an amazingly crazy fury…Greater Israel project?
What greater desire have all the ‘evangelists’, ‘dispensationalists’, ‘Jehova’s Witnesses’ and the rest of Zionist sub-branches (the muslim painted ones among them)
There is a commonly held belief that the US government will “print” their debt away causing a Weimar/Zimbabwe scenario. The problem with this scenario is that dollars are not issued by the US government. They are issued by the Federal Reserve System which is a private banking cartel (although delegated with governmental level powers). The US government must borrow from the Fed with payable interest. Were it otherwise the US government would have no debt. Sovereign debt is therefore an asset of the bankers. A war would greatly increase sovereign debt, not pay it off. Moreover, the Weimar scenario would destroy the value of dollar based assets held by banks. The banks want only directed inflation to inflate financial asset classes and would not permit a Weimar scenario.
”The problem with this scenario is that dollars are not issued by the US government.” But Treasury Bonds are. they are issued by the US Treasury Department. The process of QE, was, in fact, a purchase of these Treasury Bonds by the Fed. Both China and Saudi Arabia have very large holdings of US Treasuries; if these were dumped on world markets long-term interest rates would spike as bond prices fell. This, of course, is China’s not so secret weapon. It would only use it in the last resort, but the last resort may not be far away.
Interesting point. About hyperinflation, it’s been pointed out that the rescue of the banks following the 2008 events was itself a hyperinflationary event. The same would hold for QE with a limitless black hole created by monetization, sucking up infinite debt instruments without raising interest rates. The mind boggles.
Found at the end of Scott’s “Cat” translation: RE: Parallel universe/Gog and Magog. Sheikh Imram Hosein explains.
How to get rid of the Ponzi scheme legally without war?
1. Declare derivatives null-and-void. Period.
2. Declare all financial insurances null-and-void unless they cover an asset held by the same person/entity.
3. Change to a fully-backed currency: force all creditors to issue credit only in the amount of real assets available or to borrow the surplus from the national banks.
The first two points will wind down the financial big wheel by at least 95%. The remaining 5% can be dealt with in the capitalistic way: boom and bust, rather bust of course. To kill future bubbles in their childhood, introduce legislation to
4. interdict all financial instruments that are not white-listed due to their proven long-term positive effect on the welfare of the 99%.
It is doable provided there is enough political will.
I think the question of Manpads are a non starter. Manpads can be used by terrorists againts civilian airliners and if you REALLY want some chaos and shoot yourself in the foot, give it to ISIS or Al Nusra …..
So how would ZATO go about partitioning Syria and/or Iraq? Isn’t that the other Plan B? Can the US just put lots of troops in the Kurdish zone and help them?
War with Russia makes total sense for the US:
1. More money for military spending.
2. An end to the economic depression. There is a creepy idea promoted by some military Keynesians like Paul Krugman that war is “good ” for the economy, and how WWII “ended” the great depression. (a fallacy, btw)
Reasonable military men, like Colin Powell, will simply be sidelined. The Russophobes in the US military, like General Breedlove, are now allied with the neocons and the liberal left interventionists in the US government. I fear some major event may occur even before the November election.
Israel won’t fight against Russia – they are aware of Russia’s capacities, and they are close to Russia -there are millions of Russians living in Israel. They don’t feel pressured by the US to do anything, Israel is not afraid of being punished by the US< it simply won't happen.
Saudi Arabia is losing a war against goatherders while going bankrupt.
I like his term, “The Coalition of the KIlling”
“…I would take in consideration the following:
1) US regime only attack countries that they can bomb to hell, kill innocent civilians by the millions and yet without a guarantee that would win the war. The US regime has military power, though it is starting a deep dive into rust and dust, but they can still kill millions of civilians.
2) US will not take the chance right now to face Russia in a possible WWIII conflict, I mean now, since the US regime objective is a war as the only chance to get rid of its $100Trillion debt. The country is broken and needs a war badly, but against Russia or China it may be US’ “bridge too far” scenario, more likely the US will try another trick with countries that can not defend themselves.
3) Aleppo is gone, there is nothing the terrorists or their sponsors can do about it. The fight may go on for sometime but they will lose ground daily until nothing is left from the US/UK/FR/Turkish/Israhell/KSA operatives and all their favorite terrorists. This decision was taken way back between Russia/Syria/Iran/Turkey.
4) I agree that the coalition of the killing is angry, butt hurt and squealing, they may try once more a false flag such as chemical weapons and bombing civilians to blame on Russia and Syria, but it should be clear this time that this will only bring them down into their on mud.
The war of aggression against will go on for a long time, but losing Aleppo will mean thousands of soldiers to fight US terrorists in Idlib, that is the reality and it will be inevitable.
“…the info is confirmed by people on the Khmeimim airbase, a new pack of Su34(multirole bomber/fighter) and Su24(bomber) have arrived and the newly up graded Su-25(bimber) were spotted in use in NE Lattakia, but many more is coming, maybe the same amount of Su-25 as in Sept/Oct last year. Soon Russia will have between 40-50 bombers and fighters, and that is just a partial force, since the larger bombers are in the Iranian Hamadan airbase, were the Tu-22M3 and Su34 are located.
I would not be surprised to see RuAF using the Qamishli airbase (attack helis and some fighters), that would create a huge issue for the US’ plans in northern Syria. Keep in mind Russia and Turkey are talking and the use of Qamishli could be the next outcome to break the US/NATO plans into Syrian partition.
Read more at http://syrianperspective.com/2016/09/terrorist-vultures-try-to-infiltrate-al-faraafira-but-fizzle-instead-syrian-army-wipes-out-70-rodents-in-hama.html#8AUvuT6Wb1GVkTvM.99
Israel will go with the winner and immediately work out a financial scheme from there, using its central bankers connections.
“Reasonable military men” is a relative term.
Someone here posted something about a majority of high-ranking US military officers responding that the “#1 threat” was Russia, but unable able to answer the follow up question, “Why?”
I think most of us know why: This Empire crap is a spiritual war of wickedness in high places (or the Illumi-naughty, as I have termed it) against the human race. A war of consciousness.
The generals and admirals answer “Russia is the # 1 threat” because they know it is the number one threat to their bottom line, their net worth, and someone got that message to them, loud and clear. Whispering in their ear. . But the can’t say that.
This is an example of what is called “base consciousness”.
In this case the “base” does not refer to any military installation such men may live on, command or serve at.
Neither does it refer to first base, second base, third base, or home base (plate), even though, tomorrow, we enter the month of the Fall Classic.
Base consciousness is also called “beast consciousness” and that’s what the Kissingers and Brezinzki’s and their occult handlers have always aspired to keep “our dogs” (hence they wear “dog tags”) in, by burying their spirits, and having them ruled by air (Air Force) earth (Army), water (Navy) and fire (Nuclear Forces).
You might think I’m joking (often I am….) but I am not.
Shoigu needs to meditate on the Buddha and then call his US counter part “Ash” (not a good omen ….lol….) and ask him why the US medal of Honor is upside down:
Looks like the Satanists that pulled off the 911 caper “did a number” on the spirits of the us military men. Spirit is supposed to rule over earth, air, water and fire, not be buried under them.
Our medal of honor is like the inverted pentagram of Satanism. Ummmm?????
Here’s the Russian Medal of Honor, right side up:
The first 4 rows are Russian models, old and new. No inverted pentagrams til you get lower where “people interested also searched for” and there you run into the US Army inverted pentagram.
This is fundamentally a spiritual war.
A bit of topic.
Here’s good video what’s going on in Ukarine lately.
Interview with Tatyana Montyan(Ukranian lawer, legal expert, public activist)
The facts on the ground show that the people ruling America and the military establishment are not smart let alone sane.
…..So the possibility of escalation is very high and is only increasing.
Let’s be realistic……who actually believes that the US is going to step-back or completely withdraw from Syria ?
As for “legality”, this is not an issue for the US, we have returned to the Age of Empires (or the Age of the Only Empire)…..In this age, legality is irrelevant…..The only thing important is dominance and survival.
My bet is on US escalation and a hot war with Russia.
The only question in my mind is when (the time frame) ?
Before US elections, after US elections, and if after the elections then how long after ? (are the elections even relevant in this decision)
And maybe another issue, will the decision come from the White-house or the Pentagon ?
Who is going to discuss with the military and make the final call for escalation ?
Aggressive US Envoy to UN Uses Inappropriate Language – Lavrov
“Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Friday that US Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power acts aggressively and resorts to unacceptable language in her remarks on Russia.
“I think she is somewhat aggressive for a US representative. We believe that it is absolutely unacceptable to use such rhetoric, such language,” Lavrov said in an interview with the BBC World broadcaster.
“I do not want to discuss the manners of our partners, and prefer to focus on the facts, not hysterical statements of people who lose self-control,” he reiterated.”
If anyone else is wondering why the great Western media Wurlitzer has been somewhat muted in its exploitation of the MH17 kangaroo tribunal, JIT event, perhaps John Helmer’s latest will help explain…
Four MH-17 Questions
Thanks for the link.
I do not want to ridicule John Helmer, but he can’t tell left and right apart himself, sorry.
I think it is quite universally understood that left and right sides of vehicles refer to the forward-looking direction of travel. Hence, left engine definitively means the airplane’s engine under its north-pointing wing when flying east.
The manufacturer stated that the BUK warhead overtakes a target before detonating. This would perfectly explain why the left side of the cockpit and the left engine were damaged most if the missile came in from the south. Given a grazing angle, it would also explain the comparably few shrapnel holes in the main cabin.
By the way, it is quite remarkable that almost all media show the mostly intact right side of the reconstructed cockpit. I am recalling what could be found on the seriously damaged left side: a massacre under the cockpit window at the height of the pilot’s chest. Difficult to explain by a BUK.
This summary does not take into consideration that wherever the American planes are launched from will be destroyed before the planes return to their bases.
If all of the nearest and useable airfields do not want their infrastructure destroyed almost immediately after the first encounter with Russia then that leaves only the carrier groups. The carrier (s) will be sunk and then that leaves just the small matter of escalation and who blinks first.
I would suggest this has already been gamed through and that Russian assets are already in position for this eventuality?
The launching of nuclear capable Kailbr cruise missiles from the Caspian sea was done to demonstrate to all the relevant parties that Russia can reach all of them in minutes and completely destroy them without reply from anyone IMO.
The existential threat to Russia is this……..If Russia loses in Syria it loses its gas market to Europe from Qatari gas which would impoverish Russia for around 100 years. Russia will not permit titself to be beggared in this manner under any circumstance and will escalate until America blinks first.
In the final analysis America will not sacrifice its “bright shining cities on the hills” for some desert dustbins and Russia has gamed all of this though to the end game move.
In summary there will be no “no fly zone” imposed by America and there will never be any Qatari gas pipelines to Europe because the economic future of the worlds largest nuclear power (by warhead count) will not permit it.
Perhaps the most telling aspect of the entire Syria debacle since Russia stepped in and declared its hand is that it is the Americans are constantly going to Russia while the Russians hardly, if ever, visit America.
Russia is afraid of no one I would suggest?
All parties are frantically looking for face saving solutions. Shooting down planes either Russian or US ones can only happen by proxies: Syrians, Kurds, Rebels, Terrorists. Direct confrontation is not on the table as both sides know that media in their respective countries will force them to counter attack.
What is happening is basically a war of words and escalation so as to bring the situation to a climax, to be able to celebrate in a media/political catharsis a de-escalation for which politicians will be credited for.
The major issue comes from hard evidence kept by the financial backers of these wars of people and companies they purchased and corrupted. How to silence them? How making sure that it does not get leaked? To keep the lid on this putrid bag of dirty dealings, three key elements need to be addressed.
1) Apply maximum pressure: 28 pages, JASTA [Note: Nobody seems to find strange that it took 15 years. Why now?], Oil prices,…
2) Find substitute financial “assistance” to replace these generous donors. Iran?
3) Label the big bad bear as the culprit
Tactical nukes will explode on the territories of US allies.
These allies should ask themselves if they think that the US will
sacrifice New York for Warsaw.
The first mushroom cloud will dissolve Nato.
For the russians its rational to go nuclear quickly: they don’t have any assets
outside the homeland and a dead hand in the homeland.
Hopefully I will still have electricity after the radioactive dust settles
Did you think of offering your services as an analyst to RT?
As for me I truly enjoy almost all of your articles here and think that you deserve to be paid for them on a regular basis and at a much higher rate than today…
The headchoppers were supplied with a number of non US manpads after the cease fire in February.
Stingers now? I have read they are good to 6900 meters/ Supplying the headchoppers with some upgraded weaponry seems a possibility as US wants to make Russia “pay a price”.
Saker’s war scenario is probably as accurate as any, but it is not solitary.
There is one other.
The NO FLY ZONE never gets to day two.
With the EW and S400s and the Russian ships nearby hit by US/NATO in surprise missile attack, Russia takes out Brussels HQ, Aviano and some German bases, and a Russian sub sinks an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean. Because, that is exactly what the Russians will do.
You cannot scenario just suppression of Russian aerospace capabilities in Syria. The US would hit Iranian bases. They would take out Armenian bases. And they would “seal” the Straits so Russia’s Balck Sea fleet becomes land locked in a Black Sea lake. That would lead to strikes on all the NATO periphery nations on the Black Sea.
Basically, WW3 begins on day one of the NO FLY ZONE attack.
Let’s see what day two looks like.
I was interested to read from a previous comment
” what both the West alliance and Russia are waiting to see is China putting some skin the game”
The Chinese made several significant statements recently regarding support for Syria yet – as far as we can tell – has no significant presence inSyria
If China supplied even a tiny proportion of it’s military capability to help Syria this would herald a decisive victory over the terrorists and possibly an bring an earlier end to this horrendous war.
It would also symbolize the emergence of a serious international anti-terrorist coalition and reduce Russia’s “isolated” exposure as the “enemy” .
So far I have been unable to find evidence of any Chinese presence in Syria though perhaps they are there.
What do others think? China coming in, in my opinion, would swing it convincingly.
According to this brief comment by Wayne Madsen, there are already military forces from China stationed at the Tartus base fighting against Uighur militants who are part of the “moderate” jihadist groups in Syria:
“Russian and Chinese military forces now operating out of the Syrian port of Tartus and a Russian airbase in Latakia, Syria have enraged the CIA, Barack Obama, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia by hitting these Chechen and Uighur population centers. The Pentagon, which has provided military assistance to Uighurs and Chechens fighting under the banners of the Nusra Front and the Khorasan Group, both linked to Al Qaeda, complained that Russian war planes were striking Syrian “moderate” forces when, in fact, they were hitting Chechen and Uighur targets. Syrian and Iraqi Kurdish forces have insisted that there is no difference between ISIL and the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda, and forces claiming to be with the “Free Syrian Army.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the Free Syrian Army a “phantom group.”
CIA AND TURKS CREATED CALIPHATE TO LAUNCH ATTACKS ON RUSSIA AND CHINA
@CIA AND TURKS CREATED CALIPHATE
You missed MI6 and Mossad which were busy creating such fronts for the Caliphate as Jami’ah al-Ikhwān al-Muslimūn, Hizb ut-Tahrir, Jemaah Islamiah a.o.
But wasn’t the Caliphate of old a creation of the Mossad of the time which launched it against Rome (and by extension Russia), Persia, China? History goes by cycles.
On the subject of NATO allies support for bombing campaign in Syria, both Germany and Canada have seemed to advocate strongly for no aircraft flying over Syria these past few days. Like none at all, I thought. Not Syrian, Russian, American. No planes. Does this mean that neither country would send aircraft in support of a US- led coalition, should the US decide to escalate the conflict?
And thanks for another thorough analysis, Saker. Once again, I appreciate the insight.
“Reuters reports that as a result the Americans are holding “staff-level” talks to come up with a recommended course of action for Obama to take:
As a result, one of the officials said, the list of options is narrowing to supporting rebel counter attacks elsewhere with additional weaponry or even air strikes, which “might not reverse the tide of battle, but might cause the Russians to stop and think.”
Another official said any weapons supplies would not include shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, or Manpads, which the Obama administration fears could fall into the hands of Islamic State militants or al Qaeda-linked groups.
The most dramatic option under consideration – but considered less likely – would be a U.S. air strike on a Syrian air base far from the fighting between Assad’s troops and rebel forces in the north, officials said.
So there you go. The US wants us to believe that under the Kerry-Lavrov pact it was willing to bomb al-Nusra and any rebel group which did not disassociate from them, but because that deal fell through the US will now ramp up arms shipments to the very same rebel groups and is even considering launching air strikes against the Syrian government in their support. Makes sense. If you’re going to start a WW3 with Russia it might as well be for the benefit of jihadist who declined to commit to your truce because it didn’t include al-Qaeda.
Actually much of the Reuters report is spent explaining the US doesn’t have any brilliant options here. Firstly even the hawks themselves don’t know if there is a move to play here:
Even administration advocates of a more muscular U.S. response said on Wednesday that it was not clear what, if anything, the president would do, and that his options “begin at tougher talk,” as one official put it.
“Tougher talk” — got it.
Secondly they’re bringing up options and shooting them down themselves as soon as they do:
U.S. officials had considered a humanitarian airlift to rebel-held areas, which would require escorts by U.S. warplanes, but this has been deemed too risky and has been “moved down the list,” one official said.
Funny how moves which are deemed “too risky” aren’t abandoned but merely “moved down the list”.
Finally, they’re deluding themselves into thinking Russians will be impressed by moves like these:
Other ideas under consideration include sending more U.S. special operations forces to train and advise Kurdish and Syrian rebel groups, and deploying additional American and allied naval and airpower to the eastern Mediterranean, where a French aircraft carrier is already en route.”
As if the Pentagon will abide by Obama’s decision.
And as if the Pentagon told the Reuters their top secret coups de main.
Except for their major defeat in Vietnam, which they do not acknowledge as such and claim to have won that war, the Pentagon has been top dog since the end of WW1. That, plus their psychotic worry about communism after 1945, has addled the brains of the officers who have been promoted and are running the military today.
Consequently, the military today is being run like General Pershing is in charge and his modus operandi is sabotaging civilian planes and night clubs plus a healthy dose of false flags.
When you speak of the possible unwilligness of some EU countries to follow US in Syria, you write:
“…the regimes that matter (France, UK, Italy, etc.) are unlikely to be interested in a dangerous and completely illegal military intervention.”
I hope you are right, but I am not so sure of that: the complete illegality of the military bombing of Jugoslavia in 1999 has not prevented those countries to participate.
I’m not sure about Italy. But I don’t doubt France ,and especially the UK would join the US in that.
China needs to drop a brigade into Allepo and dare the criminals in Washington to do something rash. Us needs to stop selling instruments of destruction….it is a war crime! Hitlery Clinton is their next compliant minion.
China and Iran are derelict in this battle. They need to act now.
The Hegemon cannot be broken by Russia alone.
If China and Iran are waiting for a better opportunity, they will all be crushed.
Russia only needs a few months of help from China and Iran. But it is now. Right now.
39 days until the election. Crush the Hegemon’s efforts now with a clean victory in Aleppo.
It is the signature moment of history. This is the great battle against the Hegemon.
Don’t allow this to be a turning point. Make it a terminal point, the end.
All dreams of Eurasia, OBOR, etc will end if this moment is missed by China and Iran.
Amen, brother. See later remarks by Stavros H and carl shames.
Don’t you think that Russia is being too distracted playing the game the Americans have setup. ‘Assad must go,’ ‘Moderate rebels,’ ‘Freedom and Democracy in Syria,’ etc. Things which have nothing to do with the realities of the Syrian situation. They are keeping Lavrov busy by negotiating on things that are only irrelevant. The truth is that Daesh is a proxy army created by US, Israel, CIA, NATO to keep everybody at work while the NEOCONS continue theirs.
It may seem certifiably insane but a major war–even to the point of risking nuclear Armageddon–is exactly what the America Empire desires.
As a response to a looming collapse of the entire Transatlantic financial system (starting with Deutche Bank) and America’s parasitic Dollar Reserve Currency system.
This is the underlying geopolitical context and issue that underlies America’s increasingly desperate warmongering not only against Syria but around the world from Ukraine to the South China Sea.
America’s unipolar world order is coming down and war is the only way to save this criminal system.
This will be true regardless of who the figurehead in the White House is, Clinton or Trump.
Any US ruler that does not go along with this agenda will be pressured to do so, behind the scenes, and ultimately will be “liquidated” if s/he refuses to follow the dictates of the American war state.
Some of my thoughts on this subject and in response to the issues raised by The Saker:
a) The provision of large numbers of MANPADS to the Jihadi rats is a serious but not game-changing escalation on the part of NATO. What The Saker fails to mention however, is that Russia can and will respond in kind in other fronts against the US & its allies. Some of them may be: a) Yemen b) Hezbollah vs Israel c) PKK vs Turkey d) Taliban vs NATO (it’s no coincidence that the Russians are now working with the Pakistani Military) e) Lots of places in Africa, Somalia, Mali, Libya. f) Iraqi Hezbollah g) Selling more advanced weaponry to Iran, Iraq.
b) I disagree with The Saker that the US & its allies will have too much trouble imposing a no-fly-zone over Syria. Yes, this will be not be a consequence-free endeavor as in Libya, far from it, but the cost would be acceptable to NATO considering the massive stakes at play. The reason why I say this, is that the logistical and numerical advantage of US-NATO-GCC-ISR forces in the region is more than overwhelming. I may be too pessimistic, but I think that they will annihilate us in a conventional confrontation in the Middle East.
c) Noway the US is acting in Syria on their own accord. Despite what many on our side like to say, it’s not just Uncle Sam that is behind all this. The Europeans (all of them) are very much in this. I would even say that the current EU leaderships are even more anti-Russian than the US, even if they are too cowardly and strategic to let it show. Considering that the EU is facing the very real prospect of finding itself in an energy siege imposed by Russia, this should not be too surprising.
d) What deters the US-NATO-GCC-ISR complex of degenerates in imposing a no-fly-zone over Syria are not Russia’s conventional capabilities, which as The Saker rightly points out are at their stretching point in that region. Nope! What the LGBT-Zio-Takfiri Alliance is terrified from, is the Russian capability to strike at their military assets & installations in the region with precision using stealthy Kalibr missiles. It was no accident that in one of Putin’s briefings with a top military commander (don’t recall who it was) the fact that these missiles can be tipped with tactical nuclear warheads was clearly stressed. In front of the cameras. It is this Russian capability that has pinned the LGBT-Zio-Takfiri Alliance down for a year now, watching mostly helplessly as the RuAF has been pummeling their beloved Jihadi proxies. All this colossal Alliance (and its proxies) has managed to do against Russia in an entire year, has been to cheekily shoot-down a Su-24 bomber and kill around a dozen Russian soldiers. The LGBT-Zio-Takfiri Alliance has performed poorly on this front, by any measure.
Other than trying to impose a no-fly-zone over Syria, the Empire can use more intermediate escalatory steps, similar to what they did in Deir-Ezzor. But you can be certain that Russia will respond to any such moves in a symmetrical/proportional manner. As was the case with the annihilation of the NATO HQs in rural Aleppo a few days ago.
Russia could make life extremely difficult for our western capitalists and their petrodollar system by focusing on imposing new rules for shipping and insurance aspects of oil in/out of the Strait of Hormuz. No urgent need for nuclear strikes.
Love your contribution to this thread. I absolutely agree that the child molesting brigades of EU are just as complicit as the US in this whole warmongering aspect against Syria. I hope they will all go to hell very soon.
“The Europeans (all of them) are very much in this. I would even say that the current EU leaderships are even more anti-Russian than the US, even if they are too cowardly and strategic to let it show. ”
I have posted on here saying Europeans are shady, they seem neutral but mostly they are not. The formation of European army, Russia must take a note. The issue why the West including US usually win in their domination is because they coordinate with eachother. When they do, they divide their assignment pretending to be against, for, and neutral towards nations they target. In reality, their policy is the same in affecting other nations. If W Europeans are against Russia, then, Russia can flatten it and even support Russian-friendly goverments such as Marie Le Pen. Most European population are Russian friendly,it is their government that is the problem. Perhaps Russia can start Color Revolution in those European nations.
“US-NATO-GCC-ISR forces in the region is more than overwhelming”
There are many nations who would be against this group that can ally with Russia but is not as visible and not coordinated well due to the effectiveness of the group.
With regards to Europe not participating if the US imposes a no fly zone (or anything else to kick Assad out now the proxies are failing): Keep dreaming.
The past few years have shown that Europe (at the very least the pre-1989 NATO members) will obey any order coming from Washington no matter how illegal it would be according to international law.
The decision of EU governments to go to war is one thing – implementing those decisions and gaining any kind of patriotic support in ‘these’ times is – well – impossible !
Does anyone know what Russia has done to supply the SAA with advanced, state-of-the-art weaponry? In the past I had the impression that they were reluctant to do this. By not doing so the Russians are setting themselves up for a direct confrontation with the US since the SAA would stand no chance in isolation. In past conflicts, during Soviet times, a war by proxy would have ensued. The current situation seems much more dangerous.
More Su-24s have arrived at Hmyiem airbase.
A two seater trainer Su-25 was filmed in Syria a few days ago. Maybe the Russians are training the Syrians to fly Su-25s as a replacement for the ageing Migs?
I am one of those observers you refer to who wonders about the benefits of the ‘soft approach’ the Russians use. Back in the Soviet days, they did not refer to the west as their ‘partners’ or ‘colleagues’ etc. They drew the line and said do not cross. Were there wars in Yugoslavia? The middle east? Ukraine? Was Africa blanketed by US military installations? Maybe that approach worked better. It’s hard to see what they have gained through years of leniency rather than confronting the west at an earlier stage of developments – the attack on Yugoslavia, the years of preparation leading up to the coup in Ukraine, the beginnings of the illegal western incursion into Syria, the attack on Iraq, and so on. It seems to me that now they are in a far weaker position than they would be if these developments had been confronted at an earlier stage. This ‘soft’ line has yet to stop the western advance.
Exactly right, the Hegemon only understand language of threats and as I have mentioned in my post above, a strong stance on this issue would prevent any further discussion about ‘no fly zone’.
The bottom line, if not ready to face US, Russia should never take part in Syrian conflict. And surely they knew it would come to confrontation at some stage.
Neither Hollande nor Hillary Clinton have any idea about how a no-fly zone works today. If the US coalition declares a no-fly zone enforced by the coalition air force, what will it take for the Russians to declare a NFZ enforced by its air force PLUS as many S-400s as they have moved into the theater?
These dueling NFZs most like will keep all aircraft out of Syrian skies, leaving the battle to infantry and armored units on the ground. This, naturally, favors the Russian alliance.
And would be the perfect time for China to deploy, let’s say two divisions of the PLA onto the Syrian ground.
Perfect for Russia as it would turn the battle further in their favor. And perfect for China as the NFZ would mean no loss of men to air strikes.
The Chinese would be vulnerable to cruise missile attacks for a while, until the far superior Kalibr and Iskander missiles went nose to nose with them, and the Yakhont took care of coalition missiles launched from ships on the Mediterranean.
Let President Clinton (God forbid) declare a no-fly zone. She would have to eat the ashes of many a successful strike of the notorious Russian missiles
After the USSR was destroyed, US vultures moved in and looted Russia throughout the 90s. Millions of Russians died, and their population dropped. Their way of life was destroyed. They were in no position to counter any US moves. That is why George H. W. Bush exulted about the new world order, in which the US could rampage the world unopposed. It has taken time for Russia to recover. They are still in no position to take on the USA and its allies in a full-out war. Plus, the Russians are anti-war.
All you are really saying is that Gorbachav made a mistake when he disestablished the USSR.
I don’t think the citizens of Russia would agree with you. If Russia can not overcome the perfidy of the West, then let this whole charade go up in thousands of mushroom clouds.
FIAT JUSTITIA RUAT CAELUM
Yes, Hillary would plunge us in a WWW3. And I am not sure that Trump would be able to clean up the upper echelons from all dangerous clowns fast enough. So, for now, the near future doesn’t look good.
Anyone noticed, that israel sorta disappeared from the scene for the time being?
I mean, just a while ago ya couldn’t take a breath without some shite going down in Palestine.
What tha hell suppose is going on?
Anyone in here know about the state of readyness and the immidiacy notices to the standby recall orders in the idf?
Why not look there?
A bad ceasefire is better than a good war? A bad ceasefire will prolong a bad war indefinitely and many times more people will likely suffer and die. There have been many examples in recent history the most prominent of which is Sri Lanka’s prolonged war against the Tamil Tigers. And no country had ever gained from protracted war. Russia’s involvement is now 12 months old. When Russia first got involved I thought Putin will make short work of ISIS and the so-called al-Nusra Front. But there was an unexplainable change after Turkey shot down Russia’s warplane. Now Russia’s involvement is at least 10 months too long. I do not think Russia’s economy will last another 5 years of war in Syria. With Turkey firmly in Syria, Russia’s position is already destabilised. Even with the capture of all of Aleppo, Russia’s position may stabilise but I doubt it because of Turkey’s involvement which will surely turn into a logistic supply source funded by Nato to prolong a guerilla war against both Russia and the Assad Regime. But there is still a chance for Putin to turn the tide. I feel he will need to decisively first capture Aleppo and if Turkey continues to be a supply route for IS and the rebel forces, he should also drive Turkey out of Syria despite risking a conflict with Nato. As it is, Syria had already turned into a quagmire, a trap designed to lure and trap the polar bear by Hillary and the neocons. Russia was into Syria largely to prevent it from being turn into a platform for a balkanising assault on Russia’s soft Moslem underbelly. But if Russia’s involvement in Syria deteriorate into protracted guerilla war, it is better for Russia to withdraw and defend its homeland from the homeland itself. This is because Russia’s economy is always its economy and it is unlikely to be able to support its war on Syria for long, almost certainly not more than 5 years. And if Russia’s economy collapse ala the USSR in 1989-92, it will be further fragmented! So for Russia and for any country for that matter, a good short war is certainly better than a bad ceasefire!
I think the second Chechen war should always be Russia’s guide in these problems. First Russia destroyed the majority of the jihadi fighters,second she co-opted the ones willing to make peace. Today,while there are small numbers of terrorists still alive there to be hunted down.Chechnya seemingly is a success story in defeating terrorism. Yes,the war was horrible,but had the terrorists not been defeated,no matter the cost. We would have seen continues massive war and killing for 12 years. In defeating terrorists,you destroy them “first”.And in Syria’s case,worse than Chechnya,it is going to take making the terrorists foreign backers understand that if they don’t stop supporting terrorism.Then you will bring the war to them as well.
Russia needs to take Aleppo, and then fall back to her usual holding pattern of stalemating the situation, with its accompanying negotiations.
With Aleppo taken, no more bombing from on high is needed. By restructuring the Syrian Army and training a few extra brigades properly, the rest of the Nato irregulars in the country can be sorted out with artillery and attrition. However the restructuring and training will take $$$ and its here that China, with all its surplus cash, can lend a hand, though I have my doubts.
For propaganda reasons, a Christian brigade or 2 for the SAA needs to be created, as suggested by that retired Russian colonel in various news articles. The Christian SAA brigades can be properly trained to stand their ground, unlike much of the regular Muslim SAA forces. Then the Muslim SAA units can be insulted with ‘see the Christian SAA units don’t retreat’, and then the Muslim SAA units will fight harder also. Placing females in the front line with the Christian SAA units will mean the guys will rather die than retreat with females watching, too embarrassing. Why do you think the Kurdish units fare so well against ISIS? Plus seeing footage of SAA Christian forces advancing on ISIS with crosses on their uniforms will really cause consternation in the West, especially in Europe. You’ll get lots of ‘crusaders’ coming to join from Europe, just as ISIS has its European jihadists. This will really create chaos in the West as to who they should be supporting. Why didn’t Russia do this long time ago, its propaganda and theatrical potential is immense.
The Shia will understand the need for the Christian brigades, as will some of the Sunni. But most of the Sunni are in the Wahhabi camp anyway so their opinion won’t make much difference. The Wahhabi’s support Israel. Even divide the Kurds by creating SAA Kurdish brigades.
All Russia need do then is maintain its air defense systems and patrol with air to air fighter planes, while the rejuvenated Syria army grinds the opposition to dust. The cost to the Russian economy should then be manageable.
If Turkey or the US gets involved, then its proper war and the matter can be dealt with when it occurs. Until then, no need to hyperventilate over Turkey or USA, just take Aleppo.
But be assured that Syria is a bear-trap, a polar bear trap designed specifically to trap Russia in a protracted war that Russia (and no one else for that matter) can only win at best, a pyrrhic victory, that is if such is at all a ‘victory’. Putin was lured first into Syria and then unexplainably put his guard down by the prospect of cooperation by a dodgy Erdogan. The conquest of Aleppo may be his second chance at victory without ruining the Russian economy, though I think it may a bit too late because Turkey is already inserted into Syria. If Putin cannot win in the next two months, it is better to cut loss and withdraw or be bled economically to death.
Syria is reminiscent of the former USSR’s involvement in Afghanistan and more critically in Vietnam where the USSR had to not only support a two front war by Vietnam (Cambodia in the south and along the border with China in the North) for 10 years but also to supply a basket-case Vietnamese economy of 60 million near-paupers for 10 years. The Vietnamese sent 60,000 workers to the USSR as workers to try to repay their debts to the USSR. The drain on the USSR’s economy proved fatal in the end resulting in the economic and political collapse of the Soviet Union at the height of its military power. Then, as Russia is now, Soviet military power was estimated to be greater than Nato including the USA. The prospect of superior Soviet military power was what motivated President Nixon to seek rapprochement with China.
But now Putin is facing Nato pressure in Ukraine and central Europe. The intervention in Syria, as I pointed out, was more to prevent it from being used as platform to destabilise Russia’s southern flanks by jihadists which would further drain Russia’s economy.
However the decisive fight is to reinvigorate Russia’s economy. With low oil and gas prices and more crucially, without a strong entrepreneurial class, the task is already uphill. Russia went from feudalism, where the main labour was done by serfs, directly to communism. Its middle and entrepreneur classes are underdeveloped. Without a strong entrepreneur class and an equally strong middle-class, Russia’s scientific genius cannot be transformed into consumer products and new wealth, much less wealth accumulation for investment. For its economic development, Russia needs peace. Already its small population of 143 million is spread thin maintaining 6.6 million square miles of land. In contrast, the US developed into a world power only because it succeeded in rapidly increasing its population (by massive immigration in the 19h Century which it is continuing even now). Canada, with a land area larger than the USA, failed to increase its population and remained a miniscule power.
Therefore, Putin should win decisively in Syria in the next 3 months which he should have done 10 months ago. If not, Putin should cut loss, withdraw from Syria, try to negotiate peace with the US and failing this, to hold the line in Ukraine and Central Europe and stabilise his position in both if he could. His critical energies should be concentrated on the Russian economy. If Putin failed to stabilise and reinvigorate the Russian economy, I foresee a Russian economic and political collapse ala the USSR … and the political fragmentation of Russia – exactly what Hillary and the Neocons want.
The second last sentence of my above post, I mean to write:”This is because Russia’s weakness had always been its economy and it is unlikely to be able to support its war on Syria for long, almost certainly not more than 5 years”.
Barack (Rhymes with Iraq)
Hussein ( Saddam Hussein)
Can’t you people see that you have been comprehensively ‘had’ ???
The Zionist/Neo Cons ‘placed’ Barry there (fake name – fake education – fake wife – fake family – fake profession) to usher in the NWO – It has already failed.
Russia holds all the ‘aces’ now – including any economic support it needs from China !
Syria has not fallen yet. If Syria falls, a full blown WWIII will start. Then all pray to gods of your choice.
Despite the many issues the US will have in attempting to impose a “no-fly zone”, they really have no choice if they want to win – i.e., partition Syria, degrade Syria’s military so that Israel can cross Syrian territory to attack Hizballah in the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon, and set the stage for a decades-long profitable Iran war.
So, yes, they will do it. In fact, I expect them to bypass the “no-fly zone” minimalist position and simply declare war on Syria – or more precisely, NOT “declare war” and just start one – just Bush did with Iraq. No one stopped him and no one can stop Obama if he decides to start one. Remember, Obama can start a war and continue it for 90 days before even having to ASK Congress about it.
Would Obama do that? Yes – if he’s told to do so. It’s that simple.
And the massive push over Aleppo CLEARLY shows that is the goal: get a war started with Syria.
Also Erdogan can been begging for a “safe zone” for the last three years, and capturing Aleppo has been part of that plan, as part of the plan to partition Syria. So yes, Turkey will go along with a US/NATO war on Syria. Who’s going to stop Erdogan? No one I can see. The US has no motive to do so and in fact a Turkish military operation against Syrian forces in Aleppo (especially if they avoid engaging Russian troops or aircraft) could be the casus belli for NATO to intervene against Syria directly.
I believe this may be the “October Surprise” that the US is planning to allow Hillary to beat Trump and achieve the long-range goals of the Syria war in addition.
The fact that the Pentagon was able to bomb Syrian troops and now has bombed two bridges in Syria clearly shows they’re willing to go to such lengths to win against Syria and Russia.
This is a very dangerous moment in which the US may be willing to risk World War Three with Russia to avoid losing a critical part of their long-range plans. Remember: Back in the Cold War days there was a moment when Russia was sending paratroopers to the Middle East and the US forced them to back down by threatening escalation. Don’t assume the present US is willing to back down against a much smaller Russian military, however qualitatively better.
Also remember that the US elites will not pay one dime of their one in consequences, however it turns out (short of nuclear annihilation.) Any loss of US troops, planes and ships are irrelevant to them. The response of the US electorate is also irrelevant to them (if not to specific politicians who are easily replaceable.)
Even some US special forces are questioning America’s training and arming of the “moderate jihadists” in Syria:
Another interview recently published by the former military Jack Murphy was with a Green Beret soldier who served in Turkey and Syria. The Green Berets are special forces of the U.S. army. They are specialists in training and fighting with indigenous guerrilla groups against governments the U.S. dislikes. The soldier interviewed was ordered to train “moderate Syrian rebels” in Turkey. Parts of the interview (paywalled) are quoted here:
“No one on the ground believes in this mission or this effort”, a former Green Beret writes of America’s covert and clandestine programs to train and arm Syrian insurgents, “they know we are just training the next generation of jihadis, so they are sabotaging it by saying, ‘Fuck it, who cares?’”. “I don’t want to be responsible for Nusra guys saying they were trained by Americans,” the Green Beret added.
Murphy states bluntly: “distinguishing between the FSA and al-Nusra is impossible, because they are virtually the same organization. As early as 2013, FSA commanders were defecting with their entire units to join al-Nusra. There, they still retain the FSA monicker, but it is merely for show, to give the appearance of secularism so they can maintain access to weaponry provided by the CIA and Saudi intelligence services. The reality is that the FSA is little more than a cover for the al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra. …”
I don’t understand why Saker and some people think that the Empire will change its policies based on who gets elected. Hope, or is there a solid reason?
After observing this USA presidential election circus for some time now – that’s all it is, a circus – where every line uttered by both sides is rehearsed ahead of time, I do not see the difference between the two candidates.
I would love to read someone’s thorough analysis as to why they think Trump will be a better option than Hilary the Witch. Keeping in mind several factors:
Both are filthy rich.
Both are corrupt to the bone with too many scandals, although I never heard of Trump being a murderer like Hilary. Wouldn’t surprise me, though.
Both are under constant surveillance by the deep state.
Pretty much all I’ve been reading everywhere is “when Trump this, it will be that” and other such statements that just seem hopeful. People were hoping with Obama too.
I just don’t see either of them acting against the interest of the deep state.
You said it, Trump is not a murderer so far.Trump is not better, he is the lesser evil.
The difference between the two candidates and the future either would create is Manichean.
Trump would join with Russia to eliminate the ISIS-AQ threat wherever it existed.
Clinton would continue to use ISIS to destroy the MENA regions and to attack the multi-polar duo Russia-China.
How do we know? Look at the advisers around them.
They are not even remotely the same. Trump has rejected all Think Tanks, officials and officers who have failed for the last 15 years.
His core advisers are nearly all realists.
I’d judge him 95% safe.
Clinton I’d judge to be 100% unsafe.
Clinton would have Adm. Stavridis, Michelle Flournoy, Robert Kagan-Victoria Nuland, all the Russophobes and China-haters.
Trump would retrench and pull the US out of the regime change and intervention ideological ventures. He’s said so. Read his position papers and listen to his interviews and speeches.
Trump has already said he would not use First Strike Nuke policy. First ever to pledge that!
Clinton has been and always will be a warmonger.
Trump is a businessman who sees relationships as bilateral, not multi-lateral. That changes all trade and diplomatic relationships of last seventy years.
Clinton would by Hegemonic in all relationships.
Trump says the greatest threat is nukes. He always tells the story of his uncle, a brilliant scientist with MIT, who explained to him the power of nuclear weapons in such detail that he is obsessed with avoiding nuclear war and of preventing nuclear weapon proliferation. He would concentrate on Iran and North Korea and work with Russia and China to restrict those programs.
Clinton has given away the store to Iran and has no clue about North Korea other than the same threats that are useless.
Trump has a normal view of a grandfather and father of what the world should be for his heirs and his landmark establishments.
Clinton has no accomplishments other than corruption and crime and her ability to corrupt all around her.
Generally, Trump will get along well with Putin, and the brink will be avoided.
Clinton will authorize more NATO probing and prodding and testing of Putin’s will.
In other words, WW3 will occur.
Trump has said he has no interest in Crimea (it is Russia) and in Ukraine (it is Germany’s problem).
Clinton will turn it white hot with Nuland and the Khazarians in the State Dept. and DOD.
So, dear Serbia, it is Peace or War, Cooperation or Conflict, Life or Death.
Trump is a New York City cosmopolitan (not an International cosmopolitan). He gets along with everyone. He is interested in rebuilding America. He wants a safe and sane and prosperous world so the US can be safe and sane and prosperous.
He doubts NATO has a useful role and he will back it off East Europe if Putin gives him assurances of no land grabs. Sounds very doable on both sides.
Even his rebuilding the military is modest. And the US is falling way behind. So that makes sense.
The Hegemon will be gone with Trump in the Oval Office.
The Hegemon will be on steroids and meth if Clinton is President.
Pray for Trump. I mean that. Prayers are necessary. The Globalists and Satanists dread Trump. They will do anything to defeat him.
You said one thing that makes a lot of sense to me.
Trump is a father and grandfather of many children.
The Government will Win the Election……and the People will lose …..the Election.
Only puppets after JFK.
Do you know anything about this little fella.?
A white horse sets the scene for return of twelfth Madhi.
White horses appear elsewhere too if one has read anything much.
SOME ONE’S are curating events to line up with various prophecies, dearest Saker.
Eschatology as a driver.?
To what end.?
A Golum rises.
A-I and all that.
Why Saker does the Catholic Pope say he won’t be around too long seemingly giving the nod to the “prophecy of the Popes”.?
All of it Saker including tar and oil leaking from the ground in the Golan fits well with the written word.?
Eschatology as a driver.
Like the mad priest Balaam someone stretches out his hand to steer the Ark.
Consider buraq in English.?
“Apparently, Kerry and others initially tried to negotiate, but the Pentagon decided otherwise, treacherously broke the terms of the agreement and (illegally) bombed the Syrian forces. At which point, Kerry, Power and the rest of them felt like they had no choice but to “join” the Pentagon and double down. Now the US “warns” Russia that if the Aleppo offensive continues, the US will not resume negotiations.”
Generally agree with most of your political/military analysis, but not here. What the israeli’s quislings did there was the standard “good cop, bad cop” routine that saturates much of their psywar strategies. There was never an intent to negotiate honestly by the state dept. quislings, the attack on the SAA was part of the plan all along.
The Russians do not believe there is a split among the american regime. Lavrov would not be saying the following if they did.
US ‘spare Nusra for plan B’ to change regime in Syria – Lavrov
“The US is keeping jihadist group al-Nusra for a “Plan B”, potentially to overthrow Syrian President Assad, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with the BBC.
Speaking to the British outlet about increased violence in Syria, including in Aleppo, Lavrov said that Washington has still not delivered on its promise to persuade US-backed rebels to separate from Jabhat al-Nusra jihadists.
The Russian Foreign Minister also said that the reason for this could be Washington’s desire to “change the regime” in the country.
“They still, in spite of many repeated promises and commitments … are not able or not willing to do this and we have more and more reasons to believe that from the very beginning the plan was to spare al-Nusra and to keep it just in case for Plan B or stage two when it would be time to change the regime,” Lavrov said.”
Note Lavrov talks about a unified american policy against Syria. No mention of any division. Lavrov is under no illusions about the american’s real intentions regarding Syria.
‘US had never had ‘Plan A’ for Syria, West a root cause of crisis’ – Syrian UN envoy to RT
Bashar al-Jaafari elaborates on what Lavrov claims, and then some. The american military did not usurp the civilian side of the pindo regime, the american negotiations were a sham from the very beginning. All of the pindo diplomatic moves have been fraudulent.
Bring Back The Cold War
Paul Craig Roberts
Pundits have declared a “New Cold War.” If only! The Cold War was a time when leaders focused on reducing tensions between nuclear powers. What we have today is much more dangerous: Washington’s reckless and irresponsible aggression toward the other major nuclear powers, Russia and China.
During my lifetime American presidents worked to defuse tensions with Russia. President John F. Kennedy worked with Khrushchev to defuse the Cuban Missile Crisis. President Richard Nixon negotiated SALT I and the anti-ballistic missile treaty, and Nixon opened to Communist China. President Carter negotiated SALT II. Reagan worked with Soviet leader Gorbachev and ended the Cold War. The Berlin Wall came down. Gorbachev was promised that in exchange for the Soviet Union’s agreement to the reunification of Germany, NATO would not move one inch to the East.
Peace was at hand. And then the neoconservatives, rehabilitated by the Israeli influence in the American press, went to work to destroy the peace that Reagan and Gorbachev had achieved. It was a short-lasting peace. Peace is costly to the profits of the military/security complex. Washington’s gigantic military and security interests are far more powerful than the peace lobby.
Since the advent of the criminal Clinton regime, every American president has worked overtime to raise tensions with Russia and China.
China is confronted with the crazed and criminal Obama regime’s declaration of the “pivot to Asia” and the prospect of the US Navy controlling the sea lanes that provision China.
Russia is even more dangerously threatened with US nuclear missile bases on her border and with US and NATO military bases stretching from the Baltics to the Black Sea.
Russia is also threatened with endless provocations and with demonization that is clearly intended to prepare Western peoples for war against “the Russian threat.” Extreme and hostile words stream from the mouth of the Democratic presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, who has called the president of Russia “the new Hitler” and threatened Russia with military force. Insouciant Americans are capable of electing this warmonger who would bring Armageddon upon the earth.
What about the effects on the global oil & gas market in the eventuality of a large conflict with Iran, Iraq, Russia, Yemen, and also Qatar, Kuweït, Saudi Arabia,… ?
And guess what ? Iran, Iraq, and Russia have been put aside the oil & gas market for many ears. Since the early eighties for Iran, since the early nineties fors Russia & Iraq which means that these evil countries have had the opportunity (yet non desidered) to spare their oil & gas reserves for at least 20 years while best western partners ie Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuweït,… enjoyed the privilege to act as ouronly suppliers during all those years, dilapidating their reserves.
Of course I understand the West desires very much the demise of evil Russia (and Iran, and Iraq,… and Libya), but how could it endure a oil & gas severe shortage ?
Not to speak of the eventuality of a passive Russia observing the US gather a huge air force armada on Turkish soil without any reaction…
Israeli news – Life
This link is starting in Czech language it is just a translation of the news. Scroll down under the article and you will get the link to the English version to listen
This is so familiar that I almost thought the date was wrong. But it’s timelined Sept 24, 2016.
TEHRAN (FNA)- The US has deployed its special forces in at least 7 bases in Northern Syria which are located in Qamishli, Ain Issa, Kobane, Hasaka and Tal Abyadh regions.
The Pentagon admitted last week that it has stationed its forces in Northern Syria but didn’t reveal any details.
Based on information obtained by FNA from media outlets and field sources, the 7 bases in which the US forces are deployed are:
1.The US forces are seeking to turn Rmeilan airfield in Syria’s Northern province of Hasakah into their new operations room and build helipads in there.
2. Mabrouka village in the Western parts of Qamishli where at least 45 US special army forces have been deployed.
3. The French Lafarge cement factory, which is located between Kobane and the town of Ain Issa in Jalabiya in Northeastern Syria. Informed sources have reported that the US has increased the number of forces deployed in the region, adding that another base is being built for training the militants and helicopter landing.
4. Ain Issa base near a town in Northern Syria, which is hosting over 100 US forces.
5. Kobane base in Northern Syria in which more than 300 US special forces have been deployed.
6. Tel Byder base in Hasaka province and in the Western parts of Qamishli which is equipped with helipad for military helicopters. The US trains militants in this base.
7. Tal Abyadh base which has been the scene of most US forces’ moves in Syria. At least 200 US special forces, equipped with armored vehicles, have been deployed in the region and the US flags have been hoisted above certain government buildings in the area.
No official report has been released yet about the exact number of the US forces and weapons transferred to the abovementioned bases but field sources have reported observing armored vehicles, semi-heavy weapons, TOW missiles, thermal cameras, advanced wireless devices and night goggles in them.
Reports said last month that the US has set up a new military base in Hasaka, Northeastern Syria, under the pretext of demining the region, Kurdish sources said.
“The US has deployed tens of its marines in Mabrouka village in the Western parts of Hasaka province under the pretext of demining Ra’s al-Ain city which is now under the control of Kurdish forces,” sources told FNA.
According to the Kurdish sources, the US forces have set up their base in one of the buildings of Syria’s power department in Mabrouka named Housh al-Kahroba.
The Lebanese al-Akhbar newspaper reported in December that the US experts are reconstructing and equipping a desolate airport special to carrying agricultural products in the region controlled by the Kurdish forces in Hasaka region to turn it into a military base.
A number of US experts entered the region to develop and prepare the runways with 2,500m length and 250m width to be used by fighter jets.
Abu Hajar airport which has not been used since 2010 is located in Tal al-Hajar region in the Eastern countryside of Hasaka which is controlled by the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG).
The airbase is located Southeast of the town of Rmeilan, which is one of the YPG’s main strongholds and “largest arms and ammunition depots”.
The US has not received or even asked for a permission from Damascus for reconstructing the airbase. The United States does not have a UN mandate for intervening in the Syria war.
I notice that most of you pray that conflict between US-Russia will never materialize.
Don’t you get it that the war is actually a savior for our world.
Th US empire is the biggest ever existed ( taking in account all the countries controlled ),
and to stop this conquest is a war. There is no guarantee that Russia wins, however there would be the end anyway, US would slowly strangled Russia and their allies.
Do you wanna be slaved or proud sovereignist.
I prefer the second choice.
Later on there will be hundreds countries thanking Russia for regaining an independence from paws of US imperialism.
It will not be 4 July, but the day when Russian cut the meat in half and roast it.
War cannot be described in pure abstract logical terms as it does not generally end by the complete annihilation of one of the two sides. Think about all the soldiers having been told to be ready for the “supreme sacrifice”, having seen their brothers in arms maimed and killed, being suddenly told that a peace agreement has been reached. A few monuments and celebrations later, all is left are engraved names targeted by shitting pigeons and history books rewritten by winners. Yet, this crazy illogical human enterprise we call war was bounded by very human limitations: Resources (population, money, energy) and Mindset (Propaganda). Once resources get depleted or exhausted and minds are tired, peace becomes irresistible for all sides.
The advent of tactical nukes, remote control warfare and A.I. robot soldiers changes everything. By removing the perfectible human factor from the equation, a rationale for war can be built. When spare parts and software upgrades replace body bags, war becomes much more manageable for the aggressors. As the sad reality of modern conflicts show, tolerance to civilian casualties (a prerequisite for a situation to be qualified as “war”) is pretty high, despite the abundance of coverage of these atrocities. I am not being cynical in believing that a lot of perfectly reasonable people would accept as “collateral” damage a carpet bombing of what remains of Aleppo. The price to pay for ending this war. The fringe benefit would be to change the news cycle and … move on.
This is the frightening reality and the reason why sane people are terribly scared of this evolution. Coming from the Art of War then the business of War, we are now entering the casual war era.
illogical human enterprise we call war ?
I do not agree with you on many issues,
the war is part of eco system ( with exception of nukes ), primitive, ugly, cruel but is there.
Look around, ants, wasps …etc they have massive wars, so we.
We’re not ant and wasps. The whole Darwinian survival of the fittest is a total BS. Humanity by its very nature is not prone to wars. There are ugly, parasitic entities that have an appearance of humans but essentially something else. Call them psychopaths, aliens, reptiles, zionists…whatever…They colonized humanity and slowly pushing us all to some dark abyss. Saying that, I don’t think they have a chance to succeed. I think they digging this grave for themselves.
“Humanity” has always had wars. With so called civilisation and increasing technology, wars become more deadly – or death on a larger scale. The next one is nukes.
When I wrote illogical, I meant any conclusion of a war like ceasefire, peace talks is what makes war “illogical”, hence something we should not contemplate lightly to start. Not sure about wasps and ants (far from being an entomologist) but it is unlikely they engage into peace talks and treaties and even become best buddies 20 years later.
Looking…tax announces it is Russia,’s turn for the presidency of the UNSC…….could bring it back to reality and expose the usa supporting isis, Turkey still existing in some way, Israeli action in Golan , opportunity to confirm territorial integrity of Syria and chuck out any unwanted trespassers?
Maybe will continue of the representative at once human dimension conference slamming into western powers interfering with foreign countries………tasspolitics903326
The german saker seems to be dead. Does anybody know what’s happening?
I just started reading this article. The US knows Syria has a military alliance with Russia. Just as France has a military alliance with the US. Til now the US was not involved in a war against Syria. Now the US attacked Syria directly. Not pretending it was bombing for humanitarian purposes or supporting “rebels” or “freedom fighters” in the area. They simply went to war against Syria. Syria is a major military power with modern weaponry. The US talks about a “no fly zone”. After this, they’ll get one! One in which no US plane can ever fly again.
>Syria is a major military power with modern weaponry<
Possibly you mean Russia has modern weaponry. Syria has WW1 type equipment.
So far Russia has not given Syria any help other than air support. The Syrian ground forces are in very poor condition and this has been my biggest gripe with the Russian intervention. If Russia from the beginning had helped the Syrians update their tanks etc the war would be over by now. Unfortunately Russia does not want the Syrian Gov to win but instead wants a negotiated settlement. This sounds good until the question is asked "who with"? Al Nusra, ISIS? The so called "Moderates" do not speak for anyone but themselves.
The Russians seem to have fallen for the USA narrative that there is someone to negotiate with and therein ls the reason for the mess we have.
Because this war is geopolitics and the Syrian people are expendable I expect the US to launch a cruise missile strike against what remains of the Syrian airforce. I doubt Russia will do anything about that and it will put the Syrians on the back foot by making further gains on the ground so much more difficult.
The Russians could continue bombing but any civilian casualties will be constantly slammed against them.
Q: Do we have a clear attainable objective?
-I’d say from my “western” perspective, Putin already told us.
Why continue all these technicalities and waste of energy around Syria, when Russia could threaten US or Saudi or Qatar to take out their bases/ships/capitols with a nuke, if they not withdraw their illegal aggressions?
Because US made very clear to Russia that -as of now- Qatar and KSA are off limits
“At which point, Kerry, Power and the rest of them felt like they had no choice but to “join” the Pentagon and double down.”
If that’s true, then why didn’t the Obomber fire any military leaders responsible? Fact is, its just window dressing to the Obomber can say to his globalist friends “hey, I tried to stop ’em,” as he jets out of the country prior to any first strike against the east coast. Russian subs less than 12 minutes away.
Sorry for this short post but I Think this is a must see
I hope mods allow this
Thank you, Mikael H, thank you, thank you!!
Especially the last part, about the White Helmets, is very good.
What is happening now between US and Russia with Syria as the pawn reminds me of the “March of Folly” preceding WW1.
“Things” can rapidly get out of hand; diplomacy fails; the (US in particular) “Crazies” prevail and the ultimate orgiastic dream of the past 50 years of “war with Russia” will be the outcome.
Russia seems determined to protect their southern “border” from any incursion from either the Muslim extremists or fight the “West’s” (read mostly the US) attempt to circumvent Russia’s ability to export its own energy to the EU.
“Full Spectrum Dominance” is the goal of the US. PNAC (Project for a New American Century) in full operation.
Comparing who has the bigger stick is an exercise in futility; it’s how that stick is used.
Haven’t read anything about how Russia’s nuclear submarines are deployed????
It seems common sense tells us that the US and it’s NATO puppets will not be able to impose their will on the whole globe; but, we can see that common sense has no place in these times. Past marches to war have seemed to overwhelm even those who desperately desired not to participate and have been drawn into the maelstrom.
This will not end well.
“Full Spectrum Dominance” (i.e. world hegemony) has been the goal of all Administrations, both Democratic and Republican, since the end of WW2 (I’ve lived under them all) with the possible exception, according to Stephen F. Cohen, of Ronald Reagan, who truly believing that he and Gorbachev were ending the Cold War and bringing long-term peace to the planet. (Wouldn’t that be special!) Now we’re in the middle of a Presidential election–and neither side has brought up “no-fly-zones” or World War 3. How come? Have the candidates agreed beforehand that those “hot-button” (Red Button) are not to be discussed for some reason? I’m not a physician. So I have no professional opinion (only a layman’s suspicions) on whether Hillary has Parkinson’s or not. But as a psychologist I do have a professional opinion (as amplified in my article at: http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/clinton-slow-eye-blinks-parkinson-symptom/ri16714) as to whether she has homicidal–indeed genocidal–impulses or not. And the answer to that is a clear-cut “Yes.” Witness her involvement in the Christian genocide taking place in Syria right now. Witness her involvement in the Rwandan genocide in 1994. Witness her sadistic glee at the breaking news of Qaddafi’s rape and death by bayonet. Combine that with Parkinson-induced early-stage dementia–if that’s what she has. And that’s a recipe for a catastrophic lapse in judgment. And The Saker shows very clearly how the path is already laid out. Which is that many ignorant, so-called “Russian experts” in Washington mistake Putin’s politeness (as in calling Obama “our American partner”) for submissiveness. Thus when push comes to shove, he’ll be shoved right out of Syria, rather than go to war with Homicidal Hillary. That’s a humanity-ending misjudgment. His polite appellation is the bow of an 8th-degree black-belt Judoka before he throws you to the mat. His Judo sensei, Anatoly Rakhlin, called him a “snow leopard” in a match. Trump, by contrast, may be a blowhard. But he is not homicidal. And he is not genocidal. He’s a businessman who’s into making “win-win deals”–like the one Reagan made with Gorbachev. Which, according to George Kennan, Bill Clinton then blew by moving NATO eastwards towards Russia’s borders–out of Clinton’s grandiosity. (http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/bill-clintons-epic-double-cross-how-not-an-inch-brought-nato-to-russias-border/.) Trump would never break a deal like that. Hillary acts like Bill all the time. That’s why Trump needs to take off the gloves and start running ads like Lyndon Johnson’s famous “Daisy Girl” ad in 1964 with which I end my article. He ran it only once and won in a landslide. Americans don’t want World War 3. And all it takes is the sinking of one Russian or American aircraft carrier with 3,000 sailors aboard–and the ICBMs will fly! No doubt about it.
Meanwhile July Bishop – FM Australia drags her poxy carcass out front of the cameras to announce:
“I expect that by the end of the year, maybe early next year, the list of those that we believe should be held accountable will be confirmed and then there must be a prosecution,” Bishop told Australian state broadcaster ABC in an interview.
Read more: https://sputniknews.com/world/20161002/1045916226/mh-17-suspects-names.html
One sick dumb bitch is our Julie
On the same team as the Mad Monk who is currently advisor to Poroshenko. Same team that would take us to war with China.
Very concise analysis. So much for the Obama doctrine, “Don’t do stupid stuff”. Says a lot that the civilian command is so divided Obama can’t or won’t fire anybody for what is likely mutiny and insubordination.
A lot will depend on what Turkey does or doesn’t do. A NATO assault can only happen with the full support of NATO facilities in Turkey and very likely the Turkish military itself. Post-purge, the Turkish military is all-Erdogan. After mending fences with Moscow, is Erdogan really willing to throw all that away again?
Will Israel sit on the sidelines or will an Israeli air raid against the SAA just happen to coincide with a NATO assault?
Unlike the Mt. Thardah oopsie-bombing, an all-out campaign to secure a no-fly zone is hard to toss off as an error. Lines will be crossed and irreversibly redrawn.
If this goes down, NATO submarines forces will be big players and surface assets on both sides, likely scrap if they aren’t moved out of the way first.
From a military standpoint, this is an interesting scenario, one has to admit. Considering the civilian consequences, far less engaging. Its hard to imagine freedom of the genuine alternative press and antiwar dissent continuing in hot war conditions.
“Israel would not help the US against Russia”
Forgive me but, despite many Jews in Russia, Israel is still fully allied with US. It is the Zionist oligarchs working with US that weakened the Soviet Union when it could have transformed gradually like China with hybrid comunist-capitalist.
Israel will not burn its bridges.
Even as the U.S. strongarms NATO/EU into trade sanctions against Russia, Israel is pursuing free trade with Russia. This is probably no accident.
Jews have been described as a ‘middleman culture’, one of a few so-called middleman cultures and one of the most successful. Israel is perfectly located as a hub for East-West trade.
Some might dispute middleman theories, but a high degree of integration by middleman minorities, networked into trade, in different societies allows them a distinct advantage in identifying market advantages and needs and vectors for entry over indigenous traders limited to their own community and community strata.
Economic advantage often translates into socio-political advantages; AIPAC for example, will ensure that Israel is never punished by the U.S. government for trading with Russia. Of course, one would be punished for refusing to trade with Israel; the BDS movement is at odds with U.S. law.
The isolation of Europe from Russia via sanctions removes one major block of competitors, who may than have to reroute trade through a middleman country like Israel. Or Israel’s possible rival Turkey. Jewish communities with indigenous non-Jewish support exist in Turkey and Europe, so this isn’t a problem for Israel but enhances their community’s role generally in East-West trade. Its clearly in Israel’s advantage to prevent direct trade links easily forged without middlemen to arise between East and West.
There is a dark side to middleman games. One only has to look at the illicit oil, antiquities or human organ trade to see how the black market in anything works in the war-torn Middle East. BDS and standards of trade generally rely on peacetime mechanisms which have no meaning on the war-driven black market, which is driven by the need for cash and goods obtainable no other way.
Eschatology as a driver
I finally got it. The “tectonic” changes the Russians are referring to in the Middle East if Syrian forces are attacked is a reference to Israel. It is a signal to the Israelis to not let it happen under any circumstances or else.
Hi to the Saker and everyone else, just asking if anyone is having trouble reaching the Sputnik News website today? I’ve been trying to reach it since this morning, but all I get is a blank page with this message:
QRATOR HTTP 502 – application unreachable.:
Tried different browsers with same result.
Yes, I have too Robert. I get a “this site is undergoing an upgrade” message. No idea if it is, or has been hacked. PS
No need to worry about Sputnik. Today it has an astonishing main article in which 2 Russian experts declare that the best solution for Syria could be a NATO occupation and division of the country, subject to a “deal” with Russia.
I was absolutely speechless.
What will they be thinking in Damascus and Tehran on reading this?
Good analysis. On the geopolitics and military tactics and strategies you seem to know what you are talking about. I would like to add another issue that was left out.
The US for all its arrogance is also having some serious social issues. There are significant social movements such as”Black Lives Matter”, unemployment among the young, dissatisfaction with the major parties and government heavy handedness and unpopularity that have the capacity to bring the whole show crashing down. America is displaying the arrogance and carelessness that have brought similar empires to its knees.