by Pepe Escobar and first posted at Asia Times
No Washington-designed “maximum pressure” has been able to derail a crucial milestone this Sunday: the end of the UN arms embargo on Iran, in accordance with UN Security Council 2231, which has endorsed the 2015 JCPOA deal.
The JCPOA – or Iran nuclear deal – was unilaterally ditched by the Trump administration. But that, notoriously, did not prevent it from engaging in a massive campaign since April to convince the proverbial “allies” to extend the arms embargo and simultaneously trigger a snapback mechanism, thus re-imposing all UN sanctions on Tehran.
Foad Izadi, professor of International Studies at Tehran University, summed it all up: “The US wanted to overthrow the government in Iran but failed obviously, they wanted to get more concessions out of Iran, but they have not been successful and they actually lost concessions. So the policy of maximum pressure campaign has failed.”
Under the current US electoral shadow play, no one can tell what happens next. Trump 2 most certainly would turbo-charge “maximum pressure”, while Biden-Harris would go for re-incorporating Washington to the JCPOA. In both options, Persian Gulf oil monarchies are bound to increase the proverbial hysteria about “Iranian aggression”.
The end of the arms embargo does not imply a renewed arms race in Southwest Asia. The real story is how the Russia-China strategic partnership will be collaborating with their key geostrategic ally. It’s never enough to remember that this Eurasian integration trio is regarded as the top “existential threat” to Washington.
Tehran patiently waited for October 18. Now it’s free to import a full range of advanced weaponry, especially from Moscow and Beijing.
Moscow has hinted that as long as Tehran keeps buying Su-30s, Russia is ready to build a production line of these fighter jets for Iran. Tehran is very much interested in producing its own advanced fighters.
Iran’s own weapons industry is relatively advanced. According to Brigadier General Amir Hatami, Iran is among a select group of nations able to manufacture over 90% of its military equipment – including tanks, armored personnel carriers, radars, boats, submarines, drones, fighter jets and, crucially, land and seaborne cruise missiles with a respective range of 1000 km and 1400 km.
Professor Mohammad Marandi from the Faculty of Policy Studies at the University of Tehran confirms, “Iran’s military industry is the most advanced in the region and most of its needs are provided by the Ministry of Defense.”
So yes, Tehran will certainly buy military jets, “but Iranian made drones are the best in the region and they’re improving”, Marandi adds. “There is no urgency, and we don’t know what Iran has up its sleeves. What we see in public is not everything.”
A classic case of the public face of something that can’t be seen was just offered by the meeting last Sunday in Yunnan province in China, between excellent pals Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s Foreign Minister, and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.
That’s of course part of their own strategic partnership – to be sealed by the now notorious $400 billion, 25-year, trade, investment and energy deal.
Both China and Iran happen to be encircled by rings of the US Empire of Bases and have been targets of varying, relentless brands of Hybrid War. Needless to add, Zarif and Wang Yi reaffirmed the partnership evolves in direct contrast with US unilateralism. And they must have discussed weapons trade, but there were no leaks.
Crucially, Wang Yi wants to set up a new dialogue forum “with equal participation of all stakeholders” to deal with important security issues in West Asia. The top precondition for joining the forum is to support the JCPOA, which was always staunchly defended by the Russia-China strategic partnership.
There won’t be an October Surprise targeting Iran. But then there’s the crucial interregnum between the US presidential election and the inauguration. All bets remain off.
Weapons Weapons Weapons ……
– I am fully aware of the geopolitical situation in the world
– I took the red pill
And you know what: Sometimes I am SO depressed about all the latest cool developments / Hyper / Super Duper and all that stuff. So Iran is able to produce 90% of the weapons they believe to need on their own. Fine for them – Congratulations. Great achievement.
It is anoying – in the core: boring – frustrating. Of course
When I was a little boy we visited the moon – now, fifty years (!) later, we do not even have a base on it.
What we have are endless provocations. Super duper weapons. Smartphones. Censorship. Feminism. Cancel Culture. BLM. Most stupid politicians – at least in Europe – ever.
Sometimes I am only tired. During the span of my life I saw (and I personally made a lot of use of) technological progress and at the same time we experienced a steady and continuous political & cultural decay.
Maybe Putin and Xi will turn the tide for the better.
Sometimes I believe that as well as most of the readers here at the blog.
But sometimes I believe: maybe we all are just f….d up – these both included.
Sorry for bothering you – I am just tired about all these stories…. and no real progress where progress would be urgently needed.
I occasionally teach a course on the development of weapons from the paleolithic age through to modern military weapons. To deny we are a predatory species would be to deny our genetic code, particularly as we are only 6,000 generations out of the caves. At some point during our development we diverged from our cousins in the hominid line and I like to think of it as a singular event, opening my course with the following story.
Imagine a poor little hominid family with their backs pressed against the wall of a cave in the face of some large snarling carnivore. One of the adult hominid thinks to themselves, I’m not going to take this anymore and reaches for a large rock. As the carnivore leaps, that little hominid swings the rock with every ounce of strength born of desperation. A few moments later, as our little ancestor is licking the brains of that poor benighted carnivore off the rock he/she thinks … “I like this rock, it’s a lucky rock, and I’m going to keep it!” Thus was born our fascination with weapons and being the only species on earth to make, retain and improve tools – the first of which were weapons.
Having watched the first step on the moon I share your disgust with the current state of affairs, but unfortunately at this juncture in our history we are constrained by the lack of vision in our political ‘leaders’ who turned away from space to try to conquer a world that cannot be conquered. What they missed was that cooperation as opposed to confrontation would have brought a more unified world and an expansionist mindset that would have driven technology and focus outward, at the same time providing a very robust economy.
What you are observing first hand is the human mind turning inward – and it’s a cesspool. I once theorized that the Roman Empire collapsed from closing the frontiers more so than any other reason. Believe me, I am terrified for the grandchildren. Be well
Humans already had weapons, since we stood upright, one’s called the left, the other, the right, connected by a brain, extremely dangerous when weilded by a master neanderthal. Also, many animals use tools, some can even beat human designed traps, by finding the ‘right’ tool. Humans are so needy we need to adapt, modify or manipulate our environment in order to to live in it. Our downfall from grace?
What you see as a ‘lack of vision’ is acutally greed…………all the money is on the planet, not space. Technology, that which is accepted for public consumption, has a price tag, no free ‘Teslaonics’ for us.
“They have pillaged the world. When the land has nothing left for men who ravage everything, they scour the sea. If an enemy is rich, they are greedy; if he is poor, they crave glory. Neither East nor West can sate their appetite. They are the only people on earth to covet wealth and poverty with equal craving. They plunder, they butcher, they ravish, and call it by the lying name of ’empire’. They make a desert and call it ‘peace’.” – Publius Cornelius Tacitus – a historian of the Roman Empire
I recommend you read the following blog where you will surely find that the gringos and no one has been able to visit the moon yet. That was a false flag and a great farce for humanity, but one day it will be discovered.
Until the day that the ‘false flag and great farce’ is discovered, I will continue to believe in science: https://www.space.com/14874-apollo-11-landing-site-moon-photo.html
The use of the term ‘gringo’ is normally considered derogatory and detracted from your comment.
Many years ago, I went to the National Air and Space Museum in Washington. One look at the Lunar Landing Module (I am a professional engineer BTW) and I realised that there was nowhere near enough fuel on this thing for it to take off with the astronauts (after abandoning a lot of gear on the moon) and rejoining their mother ship circling the moon.
IMHO, anyone who believes the official story is a magical thinker. :-)
Apollo Lunar Lander 2
And here is the rocket that allegedly sent them to the moon – a giant fuel tank with a tiny payload
As a Professional Engineer myself who actually had a small part in the Mars program I would say that you are entitled to an opinion. I would also say that unless you know the measured thrust at the nozzle of the fuel/rocket system, the total mass of lander/gear/crew at liftoff, and the burn down rate of the fuel your opinion remains conjecture based on a model seen in a museum. In addition, you would need to know the local gravity at the Moon landing site, and the orbit details of the mothership. Now, if you could provide a detailed calculation proving your opinion, I’d be tempted to review it.
One of the signs of the death of a civilization is a rejection of all that civilizations achievements and both you and Edgar have made Chris’s point quite eloquently.
I await comments from the flat-earthers next ….
Chris, it’s not just us humans it’s the 3rd Law of Thermodynamics: “Things will get worse before they get better”.
well the third law of thermodynamics can be expressed like this: The entropy of a system can only increase.
then let me say that “things will get Bad, then worse, and then much worse…”
sorry but thermodynamically speaking there is no hope there
“There won’t be an October Surprise targeting Iran. But then there’s the crucial interregnum between the US presidential election and the inauguration. All bets remain off.”
9/11 was not an October Surprise. But, that didn’t stop it from becoming the pretext for all the wars of this century. The neocon Project For a New American Century back in 1998 taunted us with, “…the path to revolutionary change is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor.”
Just watch how Trump and the Zionists and Likudniks who surround him are squirming over how it’s not looking good for him in November. Don’t put it past them to create some “national emergency”, like a new Pearl Harbor, that would invoke powers vested to the president by the USA Patriot Act that would keep him in office indefinitely. May Heaven help us all…
You’re right Tommy. While I simply cannot hide my immense Schadenfreude anticipating the two bastard factions’ post-charade mutual mega-bloodying, guaranteed either way :-)
You’re right that the “two bastard factions’ post-charade mutual mega-bloodying” is going to happen either way, but one can hope that it won’t lead to war with Iran and Russia, which would almost certainly go nuclear and make the Earth uninhabitable for human beings. But, to the Zionists (Christian, Jewish, and otherwise) who surround Trump that might not be a bad thing. They have their Rapture suits all dusted off and ready to go…
Lest we forget, that Camel is married to a zionist and was one of the few to appear at a recent aipac conference. She will represent the first jewish president (pushing quid pro joe downs some stairs or adding a little iron to his oatmeal), a prize that they have waited decades for, to support their expansion and to quell their supposed enemies and detractors. Iran must have their guard up at all times, as well as Russia and China. While some say that if trump loses the election, he may start a nuclear conflagration with Russia, I believe that narcissistic people believe in the value of their lives over others. Unfortunately, we live in a place where the evil of two lessors is the only path forward until something better comes along.
The future unknown is certain. Globalization isn’t happening as was-is intended. China, Iran, Russia, Et Al, are not going to be vassals to the NWO. A definite is maniacal behavior via the barbarians, first. Germany has lawyers suing Covid scam, at least this positive is true.
So how is Hell Aviv taking this? Is the flag at half mast? What will Nuttyaho conjure next? That, is the key to November December etc surprises…
I can believe Biden wants to sustain the JCPOA since that was a significant milestone for the Obama Administration, though for Iran, the JCPOA was never a good deal to begin with (despite Trump and Pompeo’s insane rhetoric, JCPOA always gave the US a massive advantage over Iran) and Iranian nationalists are still opposed to it and rightly so.
But Kamala is a different story. The global Zionist oligarchy would want Biden to drop dead ASAP to allow Kamala to become president and if that were to happen, she would be the most hardcore Zionist president in US history. She is so closely tied to the apartheid regime and has spent such a significant amount of time there since her marriage that she might as well be given Israeli citizenship.
The prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency is absolutely terrifying and I have no doubt that like Hillary, she would do everything to trigger a global nuclear holocaust, the aim of which is to exterminate as many goyim as possible. She is truly a genuine Antichrist.
This is one ball the western politicians can no longer keep juggling.
So, they’ll pay for those jets using China currency that Russia could use to buy whatever it needs.
And that make a bond and a system that may work in the region.
Others may follow and this is too dangerous to the Dollar system to be allowed.
So, before that happens…..Iran will have Dollars back.
Or…..lots of 🔥.
Excellent, Mr. Escobar, as always. Does this increase the risk of a SCS or Taiwan “incident”? I have read that the us was looking at an MQ-9 Reaper attack in SCS, hoping for a Belgrade-style stand down from China. But I hear they were told there would be no Belgrade-style stand down. So maybe some Taiwan provocation?
BTW, and suggestions on links or research avenues on China semicon investment opportunities?
To some the world is full of surprises, since expecting to give surprises to others and/or to believe to be “exceptional” in being a source of surprise, can become surprising.
Often framing can be restricting and hence can be a cause of surprise.
more info on Iran arms at IranGeoMil
“Независимая газета” writes on Monday, 19 October, https://www.ng.ru/vision/2020-10-19/8_7993_taiwan.html :
Taiwanese “gun on the wall”
Will the conflict around the island be the ‘October surprise’ in the US presidential election?
“If at the beginning of the play there is a gun hanging on the wall, then by the end of the play it should fire,” wrote the great Chekhov.
The “Taiwan gun” appeared in 1949, when the remnants of the armed forces and nomenclature of the Kuomintang party took refuge on the island of Taiwan from the Gongchandang party, the Chinese Communist Party, which won the civil war. It was not possible to force crossing of the approximately one hundred kilometre strait in the sweep. Mao Zedong so began to gather forces for the assault, but then in 1950 the Korean War began, and the forces were transferred to the aid of Kim Il Sung.
Those who are not blind see the coincidence of the growing tensions around Taiwan with the upcoming US elections. A ‘small victorious war’ may well increase the popularity of the “wartime president”, as Trump calls himself. A large-scale conflict involving more or less America can also come in handy in the event of uncertainty with the vote count and possible clashes between Republicans and Democrats.
The Taiwan card is being actively played by Washington in connection with the approaching presidential elections, Chinese newspapers write. The Secretary of Health and the US Undersecretary of State visited Taipei. Congressmen are even proposing to restore diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Trump and his aides are able to support such a proposal before or after the election. This can happen even if Joseph Biden wins.
The “Taiwan gun” may be the “October surprise” that American political analysts expect on the eve of the elections. Trump’s unexpected illness and rapid recovery came as a surprise. However, they do not cancel Chekhov’s prediction at all. It’s just that a new act appears before the end of the play.
“Iran is among a select group of nations able to manufacture over 90% of its military equipment – including tanks, armored personnel carriers, radars, boats, submarines, drones, fighter jets”
it would be very interesting to see the cost of such things for Iran / China / Russia for tanks / APC’s / radar / boats vs the USA – with qualitative differences
i suspect these countries have rough equivalent value on certain assets with costs at 20% or less of the USA