by Ghassan Kadi
No one knows how the “War On Syria” is going to end, let alone what turns it will take in a year from now, a month, and even a week. There are many variables, new developments, twists and turns, and they happen quickly, and sometimes unexpectedly. And because we do not really what is going on behind the scenes in the corridors of Washington, Ankara and Riyadh, we cannot say from a position of knowledge that the trio are indeed conjuring for a land invasion of Syria. To make any plausible interpretations and predictions therefore, we can only base them on the revealed information, albeit it is perhaps mainly designed to feed the news-hungry media and their news-thirsty consumers. The analyses that we can produce cannot be based on more than this information.
This is an uneasy task because to confound the situation further, the recent information is not only incomplete, but in itself it is confounding and contradictory. We are seeing adversaries making statements that portray accord, whilst on the other hand, we see allies, or at least supposed allies, lashing at each other, and for different reasons, and unless we use common sense, we won’t make any sense of this at all; it only adds to the confusion.
To this effect, and to begin unraveling the information segment by segment, we must stop at a recent statement that Erdogan made. What he said to his American “allies” recently was not very different from saying “you are either with us or with our enemies” (ie the Kurds). Yet, Erdogan and the USA are meant to be allies and co-NATO members.
To say that Erdogan is unhappy to see northern Syria going back under Syrian control bit by bit, is a gross understatement. For nearly five years, he has flooded the region with tens of thousands of militants, supplies, munitions, and this is not to mention all the looting that was done to Aleppo’s industrial infra-structure. And now, almost in a blink, he can see this slipping out of his hands, all the while the USA is watching and incapable of or unwilling to do anything, or perhaps both. Erdogan has been very vocal in criticizing the USA and questioning its loyalty to him. He is furious to the extreme.
A few days before making his statement, Russia stated that Turkey is preparing for a ground attack in Syria, a claim denied by Turkey. Both of the Russian claim and its Turkish denial received little attention by American officials. Now, this is the America that makes it its business to poke its nose into the tiniest incidents and considers building a chicken pen in Peru a matter of national security. Why would America not comment about a serious matter such as the above; unless it is clearly saying to observers that it chooses not to comment because if Turkey launches a ground attack on Syria, then this is not America’s business!
But if we go back a few weeks further to the extra-ordinary NATO meeting that Erdogan asked for immediately after the downing of the Su-24, the resolution was for Turkey and Russia to work out their differences. NATO did not want a bar of it.
Erdogan is possibly the most dangerous man on earth at the moment. If not the most dangerous, he is definitely in the top ten list. If anything, he is a mega megalomaniac. He regards himself as a supreme being who was God-sent in order to restore the former glories of both Islam and the Ottoman Empire. He sees everyone else as inferior to him, and when he goes to confer with his allies, including Obama, in his mind, he is using them and not taking orders from them. Any observer and critic of Erdogan who is unaware of this fact is missing a very important reality, and probably the most pertinent link in the chain of this very complex and perverted personality.
In a recent article, Andrew Korybko brilliantly outlaid Russia’s options vis-à-vis a Turkish land attack on Syria (1). There are many options indeed, and in such an event, Andrew predicted that Russia will not engage in an all-out war with Turkey and may even allow Erdogan to vent a bit of steam provided that he does not go too far.
This seems to be happening now, or at least to some degree. Recent news is reporting Turkish shelling of Kurds in Northern Syria. Another report that followed later said that even Syrian Army positions have been targeted by Turkey.
There are even some unconfirmed news reports of Washington asking Ankara to stop its shelling of Kurdish and Syrian Army positions.
Obama made it very clear that he does not intend to have direct confrontation with Russia in Syria (2). On the other hand. Russia is warning against such intervention. Those warnings, do not only apply to Turkey, but also to Saudi Arabia no doubt.
In his latest article (3), The Saker predicts that “in the next few days, we are probably going to witness a dramatic escalation of the conflict in Syria”. This is possible, and even probable, but to what extent shall we see this escalation?
Then we look south of Ankara, at Riyadh to be specific. The Saudis are very restless and upset by the American inaction ever since the “War On Syria” started. They have been literally begging the USA and NATO for direct intervention, but to no avail. Now here’s the question, if America did not want to intervene directly in Syria before Russia entered the scene, why would they do it now risking a direct confrontation with Russia?
It is not uncommon for politicians to lie and to make deceptive remarks. It is very possible that America is trying to appear to look as if it is seeking peaceful outcomes whilst behind the scenes pushing its Turkish cronies into war.
Allies however, do not slander each other, not in public, not unless they are having a serious crisis. And allies do not plan to go into wars together if they are having a crisis. If we join the dots, the likelihood of direct American/NATO intervention in Syria looks very remote. They will most probably provide a tacit support for a joint Saudi-Turkish intervention, but NATO is highly unlikely to get involved directly in the conflict.
Furthermore, and this has been said many times by many analysts, Saudi Arabia is already bogged down in a war against the ill-equipped ill-funded Yemeni Army and remains unable to score a victory after many months of heavy bombardment. This is needless to say that the Saudi economy is in tatters. The Saudis are already using mercenaries from different countries such as Sudan, Pakistan and even Yemen itself in Yemen. They have also hired mercenaries from what is commonly known as Blackwater. The prospect of Saudis sending troops to Syria to fight and win is as farcical as them trying to put the first camel on the moon.
The Turks and the Saudis are extremely frustrated that their war efforts in Syria have been turned upside down. Foreign Minister Jubair is still preconditioning the “removal” of President Assad for any peace deal to be endorsed. No one is regurgitating his rhetoric with any sympathy, and his kingdom and Turkey must have reached the stage of thinking that if the tens of thousands of militants could not do the job, if America and NATO won’t step in, then we shall pull our sleeves up and do it.
For many decades, Saudi Arabia had been the perfect model that America seeks in places like the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has been stable and compliant. This is what America seeks as an ultimate objective; a compliance-based stability. When compliance cannot be achieved, creating instability becomes contingency plan B.
However, the tides of Saudi Arabia are turning, or will soon be turning. Saudi compliance is beginning to wane. The Saudis are very unhappy to see the Iranian nuclear deal with the USA coming to fruition. They are vocalizing their grievances and this spells danger for the Americans because it reeks with the smell of compliance-under-threat.
The same can be said about Erdogan with respect to his recent attacks on American foreign policies. And when compliance weakens, America puts contingency plans into action. This is the scenario when the American bully steps in and creates instability, but Turkey is not Saudi Arabia. If America now suddenly tries to pull the rug from underneath Erdogan’s feet, he will become the sacrificial lamb; not Turkey. But in the case of Saudi Arabia, and unless the royal family sacrifices the king and his arrogant son Prince Mohamed Bin Salman, then the whole royal family may be sacrificed.
In a not so recent article (4), Sharmine Narwani articulates why America is losing interest and ability to engage in more action in the Middle East, and again, I stand to be corrected, but the way I see it, America will not step in in defense of either Erdogan or Saudi Arabia in any invasion they plan for Syria. They may give them moral support, diplomatic support, and even arm supplies, but they will not engage militarily and will cut them loose.
This in itself puts the onus of winning on Saudi Arabia and Turkey. In this event, they will have two options; either send troops inside Syria, or just use her air space to launch limited aerial attacks and borders for some artillery attacks.
With the Syrian-Turkish borders now mostly in the hands of the Kurds and Syrian Army, ground troops will have little chance, and with the S-400 deployed, aerial attacks will not be a walk in the park.
The options of Saudi Arabia and Turkey are to pull back, engage in very limited skirmishes to save face, or expand the conflict and face grave consequences.
i quite agree with the conclusions on what is much speculation…. i may be wrong but i dont see a Nato or the ‘collective west’ , leading a saudi – turkish invasion of syria.. , and possibly it is to do with the increasingly obvious divide within ‘deep state’ USA .. specifily the ‘deep state’ dominant but secret branches of the pentagon and intelligence communities.. that are apprently aiding the syrian and russian governments.. and have been for some time.. at odds with the executive branch and neo con agenda.. ?….in saying that ..it is however extremely hisotircly rare if not unknown in history for an army once mobalised to ‘return to barracks’.. so i think you are right there will be limited incursion attempts.. turkey knows russia will not hesitate to shoot their planes down hense roping saudis in it will ikely be turkish armor with saudi air cover.. and like you say the syrians will let them cross territory even ‘occupy pockets only to cut them off and pick them off rather than total engagement with whole colums or divisions.. ? …
What is missing here, & in Kadi’s article, is -The Pink Elephant in the Room.
Not one mention is found, including in the other comments, of the Zionist Land Thieves in Tel Aviv, and on the Riviera.
These land Thieves control the American Government, and its Congress. The Actual presiding President of the US is Netenyahoo. Obomber is but a Hollywood – Hologram image. Actor Hollywood Obomber, previously portrayed the equally fictitious Bin Laden. Obomber can act; but he is not a real -flesh and blood- Constitiutional President of any nation.
Within the large US of A, there are some fissures in the completeness of the Zionist control. However, since the MOSSAD, and their Junior Branches, the CIA & FBI, overthrew the American Republic on November 22, 1963, the Rothschilds, and their Skull & Crossbones friends have looted America’s wealth and weaponry, as they see fit. American politicians who did not dance fast enough, were liquidated. They are Omnipotent.
To discuss the fascistic imperialist Oligarchs’ Wars Against Syria, and Russia, and Iraq, and Afghanistan, and Yemen, and Somalia, and Sudan, and Libya, without, at least a cursory mention of the ongoing Genocide and Culturecide being conducted by the Zionists – against the Palestinian People, (who reside right next to Syria), is verrrrrry suspicious [if “suspicious” is too strong an inference, place your own word here……………….]
The Zionists wish to create a Greater Judah! Their maps are found – all over Occupied Palestine! The Zionist dream Demands!! a Greater Judah, extending from the Nile, to the Ephrates (and that includes the Arabian Peninsula – which is being depopulated [starting with Yemen] as we speak).
The Zionist dream is of a Planetary – New World Order of Nationless slaves robbed of their identity, and poverty stricken masses. No Country, and no Religion may survive, except for that of the Chosen Ones. Did you see the video of the well programmed Merkel, of her antipathy toward her own National Flag? Hollande displays the same lack of National pride. A New World order of the Oligarchs’ EU – IMF Banking power, in combination with a world Fascist NATO military, and coordinated police controls is mostly in charge.
As Tolkien expressed it:
“One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them, One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them In the Land of Mordor where the Shadows lie.”
But a few Rebels, A “Rabble in Arms,” refuse to conform. Their nascent Democratic Republics exist, from Novorossiya, to Russia, to Syria, to the Hearts of Palestinians, to Iran, to Serbia, to the Stage of Dieudonné, and the heart of Alain soral, the Le Pens, Forage, Laurent, the heroic Ron Paul, Edward Snowden, Assange, Manning, and other Rebels from the outlying Galaxies.
The Russian rescue of the Syrian nation has placed a roadblock in the Zionist drive for a World Empire. Russians are still in Stalingrad. Behind them, the Volga!
Surrender is not an option!
For the Democratic Republics!
Thanks for cutting to the core and speaking the unspeakable. Makes me proud to be part of this vineyard. This deserves to be a lead article.
Erdogan is just a canary in the mine, nothing in comparison with the AZ crazies who move him like a pawn on their killing field chess board.
Let war come if it must. Love needs to purge her house of mind polluting, drug pushing, meat eating, pet keeping, marriage mongering, money laundering and war lording worshippers.
We humans have reverted to humanoids. Justice will have her say and Truth will uphold Love’s way. We will get what we deserve.
Forget the Le Pens, they may well be a NWO outfit. France has a much better choice in the person of François Asselineau and his political party the UPR:
You have nailed it. The Zionists will not simply let this go just because Russia has spoiled their plans. The only question now is will they decide on a escalation or continue the war of attrition.Not sure about China’s role in all of this.I fear they may not be trusted.Hope to hell I’m wrong.
What you fail to realize is Turkey is in line for destabilization. That Turkey is a NATO occupied state. That KurdIShIS is the proxy force which is being utilized to do so. What you do state that is correct is Kurdistan is part of the greater Israel project. The KurdIShIS are allied with and supported by the Zio/apartheid state. The plan for Turkey is similar to the plan for Syria; as was the plan for Iraq, Libya and after Syria and Turkey then Iran. Whose destabilization becomes easier with a Kurdish state at its border. Do not believe for a moment the Empire has lost interest in its goal of the Balkanization of the ME.
If the Turks put planes over the skies of Syria–this war will be hot, fast and nasty. God Save us All.
If the Turks put planes over the skies of Syria, the Syrians (with their proud Russian trainers beside them) will shoot those planes down. Since it happens over Syria, Turkey is the obvious intruder. NATO will say this doesn’t constitute a direct attack on Turkey, as such, and so NATO won’t even need to think of an excuse not to help Turkey.
And the US will help clear some $trillion debt by re-supplying more war toys.
People seem to believe that war arises from a conflict of interests seen as “vital” between opposed states, and that this is the sole cause. But it seems to me that a more accurate view is that every war arises from domestic agendas within at least one of several states. Domestic agenda, not foreign policy itself, but domestic power. For “state”, in this view, one may also include “nation”. Recalling Napoleon’s dictum that “one can do anything with bayonets except sit on them”, it is clear that brother Erdo can’t “sit on his bayonets” – he has to keep them busy. And of course brother Saud is in a similar spot. Some say that brother O has trouble along these lines, as his predecessors have discovered. They are fighting. These processes feed on themselves and grow. The only real question, some say, is if or even when “it” will “go nuke”.
I would say there are always different reasons mixing together. Domestic agendas are just one of many reasons. Wars have started about any reasons thinkable. Money is a good one. Hubris, religions, idiologies, pick one. Erdogan is dangerous because he clearly has a god complex and a decent army behind him. But then…most politicans are kinda insane, if you want a job to rule over others, you have to be. Those who go into this field and truely have good motivations are probably very very few.
Every one of these are “domestic” causes: ” Money Hubris, religions, idiologies”. I was looking for a term that was always accurate – and believe “domestic agenda” fits in every case. It is, for example, a “domestic agenda” to defend against attack… A “domestic agenda” to attack, etc etc. Obviously, within this rubric exist a plenty of specific causes and excuses – generally spoken about in lies. Pax, brother.
I just found this on the net.It seems so insane and crazy(neocons wetdream)I can’t believe it.
But who knows with these satanists?
The Levant and Armageddon, Syria and World War III
A Mideast Conflagration is Being
Stealthily Set Up by the NWO Cabal
Age-old Sunni vs. Shiite Conflict Has Been Exploited To Destroy Islam and Inflame the “Clash of Civilizations” with Christianity
UPDATE 6:11 PM Eastern US Time — Emergency Action Messages (EAM) – the highest priority message in the entire United States Military Command Structure, requiring IMMEDIATE attention and action — have been broadcasting non-stop for about the last ten minutes on 8992 KHz USB.
Update 2:58 PM Eastern US Time — An entire FLEET of Russian Antonov-124 cargo planes (the largest cargo planes in the world) have begun arriving in Syria carrying Russian Tanks, Nuclear-tipped artillery shells and other major warfighting gear. Within the last 90 minutes, TWO of these massive cargo aircraft have landed and began unloading. Other Antoniv’s can be seen circling under the watchful eye of Russian warplanes as shown below:
URGENT: 1:56 PM Eastern US Time, 13 February 2016 — Stratfor is now confirming Russia has dispatched a ship to the Mediterranean, to deliver NUCLEAR-TIPPED CRUISE MISSILES.
You add one factor to this equation we must always remember. ” The US and EU is in early stage financial crisis of an epic scale”. We all know War is a solution when all the money printing and manipulation fails. The USA is behind all of this, nothing happens without imperial approval.
Saudi and Turkey may be the probing attack you mention.
There must be someone in Washington who understands the coming collapse, to deal with unpayable debt and insilvent banks, a war allows a complete and total take over by government, to remake the system, and save the 1% from their excess.
Stay tuned. Saudi planes would never take off without full sanction of the US.
istan, kindly check your informations. The only thing remotely true about your breathless report is 602, a small missile frigate, did indeed, leave Sevastopol harbor. He sure is a good looking little ship but he does not have nukes on board, they ain’t none in Krimu or Sevastopol. Here’s the link:
In the vid you are looking north, 602 is between the two ferry landings on north side. The large building at the shore is the metallurgical research center, defunct for more than three decades. The region is Rahdio Korkha on north side. The Mockba and his suite is well to the stern of 602, moored to quayside on the north side of harbor.
Define ‘fleet’ of AN’s and why in the Lord’s name would Russia use them to ‘deliver tanks’?
As I said yesterday, everyone calm down. There is no world war starting today or tomorrow or next month. Ignore the trolls and try to have erudite conversations about the subjects posted.
Auslander, author Never The Last One
thanks Auslander,I’m gonna take my dog for a walk,the go to sleep early
I wonder of stratfors disingenuous statement can be taken another way…maybe on board , being transported only, are nuclear tipped shells or whatever……..cos rus would surely want to protect them….see the psyops all gos on…………. cos “deliver’ could mean actually fre them.or are there any statutes/international agreements about transporting such……
A very useful comment, thanks.
Sums up what i also said about Ukraine once.
I still don´t think that Nato would fight for Turkey or Ukraine. Those few thousand soldiers build-up on Russian boarders? That´s nothing compared what Russia could unleash by just using long range weapons. This is business, America is bankrupt and we see now the biggest crash in financial history slowly happening. But that is also dangerous in itself, bankrupt empires tend to go to war as history shows, or at least fall apart and then fight within itself.
There is no guarantee that there won´t be a global conflict, it IS a possibility, but i think it´s unlikely. Still, even a war “just” between Turkey and Russia, and i don´t think Russia would start it but Erodgan…well he is a nutcase, would be a bloody one and could draw in more countries.
On the other side, i kinda…hope that Erdogan will fuck up “a bit”. I would like to see him gone and Turkey out of Nato. With one country out…others might willingly follow…what? A man can dream :)
I do not believe for one moment that Turkey and Saudi Arabia would be doing what they are doing without the acquiescence and cooperation of the US. Maybe not of Obama personally (but I believe they do have his blessing), there are other power centers in the US that want a NATO-Russia war. The neocons and McCain come to mind.
The Saudis and Turks (I’ll call them Sauturkeys) have a number of options:
1. Full scale ground invasion: this is very risky and it will require air cover. They could get their asses handed to them by the SAA.
2. Limited ground invasion to hold a strip at the border: a lot less risky. The SAA may let them get away with it. It would not require air cover.
3. Large scale air attack on SAA positions: Risky but could be done without triggering Russian intervention. They need a casus belli for this, a la the East Ghouta chemical attacks in 2013.
4. Artillery and missile strikes on the SAA from across the border: least risky and most point less.
Options 1 & 3 can be combined and produce a full scale war that would likely end up involving Russia. If they do this they will have to go to Damascus. This is the WW3 option.
Option 2 is really quite pointless, they would lose as whatever strip they hold at the border would be sealed from the Syrian side by the SAA. It would not help their terrorist rats one bit.
Option 4 is also quite pointless since if they do it in a meaningful way then the SAA will retaliate leading to Options 1 or 3.
Option 3 seems the most plausible to me (but these are the Sauturkeys we are talking, they can do anything). A mass casualty false flag in Aleppo can lead to a huge Russia demonization and massive R2P bombardment campaign against the SAA. The demonization might deter forceful Russian intervention. And the bombing might significantly degrade SAA capability. The Sauturkeys, Kuwait, and Bahrain have enough aircraft between them to saturate Syria’s air defenses. Russia would have to decide whether it will intervene as the attacks would be carefully directed only at the SAA.
I think this would all fail and Russia would intervene and give the Sauturkeys a hiding. But what matters is what the Sauturkeys and the neocons think. These neocons are the people who thought invading Iraq in 2003 was a good idea. They also seem to think that Russia lacks the capability to stand up to NATO. Plus they have spent the past 2 decades convincing themselves that a nuclear war is winnable. Who knows what they might do.
On the other hand I’ve long been of the opinion that the big war will come around 2020 or shortly after. Thats after the US imperial decline leaves it cornered and with no option but to accept its fate or fight. I hope we still have a few more years to work on prevention. But its increasingly looking like this might be the year.
I agree. Nothing Turkey or Saudis do is not without US tacit approval. The US won’t say no to either, why should they. It doesn’t cost the US anything to keep the chaos going and Russia tied up in it?
On the other hand, the US pretends it’s working with the Russians, and Germans too play the game. The US might very well be divided internally. And so might the Russians. Merkel says one thing to ingratiate herself with US government, , other German officials say another.
Who can know anything in the Empires of Lies with so many cross games and backstabbing going on? The bottom line is US, NATO and Western policies are incoherent, short-term, temporary with no thought to consequences or escalation. This, and this alone, makes for a very dangerous situation as many former generals have warned.
Also, this business of having to pander to Republicans. Maybe it would be a good thing to have a strong Republican who doesn’t feel he has to pander to a democrat to say No to War.
Good article, but where the author states Erdogan is a danger I disagree. The man to watch is Davutoğlu, Erdogan’s prime minister. Over at Wikipedia his policies are said to be Neo-Ottomanism, Pan-Islamism, and Muslim Brotherhood-inspired transnationalism. A man who’s good enough to think up a plan, but not good enough to think of the ways a plan can go wrong. And when the plan has gone horribly wrong, not clever enough when to cut his losses and fold his cards. That’s dangerous. Turkey appears a big, solid country; in no danger of breaking apart; but the games being played are going to produce great stresses.
Yes, the man is Davutoglu, that doll face expression which never changes, no matter what, seems to me very uneasy. It looks like “the kind of people who do not feel or suffer”, those “who carry that expressionless face like a grimace”, whether rain or shine even above their own nationals, and “has a purpose and intention to achieve it at all costs”. The collateral damage will simply slide over “these kind of people”.
Erdogan may be crazy or mafioso, but I think Davutoglu is worse.
In fact I put much of Erdogan’s terrible policy moves down to his influence.
The man reminds me of a rat.
Recently, a third founding member of the AKP has proposed a ‘supranational solution’ to the Turkish Kurd question – my guess is it will really mean ripping off a chunk of Northern Syria, expelling the Turkish Kurds into it and controlling them via banking and military from Ankara.
In short, exporting the issue into Syria.
That’s what Nutty, Erdo and Barzani agreed on – as the best way to retain control over oil, and ensure nice little earners for themselves.
Davutoglu is using this for his own political gain, in which he, not Erdogan is the becomes the Emperor of a pan- neo-Ottoman Empire.
Also, the US is bringing the world to the brink of war by temporary, irrational, short-sighted and ill-thought out policies that appear to be based on short term self-interest. But in fact these ill thought out policies with no regard for consequences will lead to dangerous destabilization and a possible regional or world war.
Humoring madmen like Erdogan has dangerous precedents in history. It happened before with Hitler and it can happen again.
This is a time for the West to show some sense. Apparently, all sense has departed from the US defense establishment. By the time sense and appreciation of consequences comes about, I fear the missiles will have been launched.
“This is a time for the West to show some sense. Apparently, all sense has departed from the US defense establishment”.
Nothing like a good dose of Russian “shock and awe” to restore sense to the senseless.
NATO is directly involved in the war on Syria. It is a key element of military alliances that the alliance is involved by the actions of its members. The USA, the UK, France, Germany and Turkey – all NATO members – are yet engaged in the conflict on and above Syrian ground.
What else is required to call it a “direct NATO involvement”?
I am glad someone mentioned Iran as this has not been factored into Ghassan’s article and of course the moment the defence treaty is enacted then that is a legal response to the situation. Additionally, Ghassan did not add that Syria has all the right to use its long range missiles against all states that may attack her.
the west has no money and is bankrupt hence oil smuggling and stealing syrian and iraqi oils thru turkey. SArabia is in financial trouble over low oil price.So how are they going to support an invasion in syria? I doubt it.
At this point, and given the turn events are taking, could be of interest the following analysis on the recent visit of Henry Kissinger to Moscow published in Pravda:
Very, very interesting…..
Concidering Saudi troops and aircraft movements to Incirlik air force base in Turkey and the duration of the Turkish artillery shelling of YPG/SAA positions close to the Turkish border. This can tell me nothing else but that the Turks and the Saudis are going to make a bold move and try to establish some kind of a “sanitary corridor” along the Syrian/Turkish border to protect the retreating terrorists from the SAA advance.
it was Kerry who said that if the Geneva talks failed then Washington and Ankara were ready with a military solution.
Carter said he welcomed Saudi ground troops and airstrikes in Syria.
are we now to seriously believe after five years of being at the center of the plan for regime change in Syria that the empire has suddenly changed it’s mind?
if so why? because the Russians put 60 or so aircraft in play? because Washington fears an escalation with Moscow?
these people are psychopaths, they don’t have the emotional capability or reason to fear such escalation and they obviously don’t care how many people die in pursuit of their goals.
no, I don’t trust this sudden meek act from DC, smething else is stirring in the weeds.
You’re right. Chuck Hagel was fired for a reason and the warmaker Ashton Carter appointed for a reason. The Pentagon tells Erdogan to stop bombing and Ashton Carter says we are behind you Erdogan. So it seems the NSA overrules the Pentagon.
The “Gates of hell” will be open in the coming months in Syria
There are three possible scenarios in Syria
Participation of Arab land – the US in Syria is not excluded ..
As in Berlin WWII, Syria might face Gharbistan and Sharqistan
By Elijah J. Magnier (@ejmalrai)
A high-ranking officer within the joint operations room in Damascus, which includes Russia, Iran and Syria and Hezbollah said, “ there are three possible scenarios in Syria: The first is the Arab ground troops would enter Syria from the Turkish borders, in the area under the so-called “Islamic State” group (ISIS) on the long front from Jarablus to Al-Ra’ee. This can be possible and quickly achievable if a kind of an agreement is reached between Turkey and ISIS. After all, the Jihadist group has to face either the Turkish-Arab forces – that could allow a possible exit – or the Russian-Iranian-Hezbollah forces where there will be no exit”.
“The second scenario is through the Jordanian borders East of Syria up to Raqqa. A longer road but would allow Saudi Arabia to bring its logistic and armoured support to push all the way to the ISIS-controlled land. In both scenarios, these troops, Arabs or Turkish-Arabs, would not clash or contact or even walk into the Russia-Damascus and allies military operational stage. The third scenario is that the Saudi are boosting the moral of the Jihadist so these don’t surrender easily and hold the ground for as long as possible”.
The source said: “Any scenario is linked to the will of the United States to be engaged in a war in Syria. This is exactly what the Saudi officials said. The U.S. is sending the Awacs aircraft because any U.S direct intervention on the ground is totally excluded. This could be the U.S. contribution, along the diplomatic effort in Geneva. Never the less, we build our military reaction based on the strong possibility that the Arab ground troops are most likely to invade Syria. These forces, under the title of defeating ISIS, won’t reach Raqqa overnight. Logistic support and troops movement from Jordan into Syria require between 3 to 4 months to be completed. These forces, in this case, are expected to advance from Jordan, into al-Badiyah and continue up north toward Raqqa, the northern Syrian city, as a possible scenario. Any potential contact with the Syrian forces could lead to a larger war”.
“We do not exclude the fact that Saudi Special Forces could act behind ISIS lines to guide airtrikes or carry small scale attacks. None the less, these forces cannot contribute in defeat ISIS but in directing specific targets. This is to our advantage. The U.S. led coalition can bomb ISIS any time but no ground troops would be welcome. Moreover, no jet is allowed to enter the Syrian space without prior coordination with Russia, otherwise it will be considered as a potential target. This is also another fact to consider. Therefore, no one is willing to see a large scale war, mainly President Obama who has avoided to be entangled in the Syrian war for the last two years”.
Russian Prime Minister Dimitry Medvedev said, “all parties should sit down at the negotiating table instead of causing an outbreak of a new world war”, rumbling the drum of war in Syria. The Russian warning came after the confirmation of a spokesman for the Saudi Defense minister Ahmad Asiri “the Saudi Kingdom has announced the establishment of the new Islamist alliance to fight terrorism and is ready to carry out air and ground operations within the international coalition led by the United States in Syria.”
“The aim of the Arab forces is to divide Syria is two parts: “Gharbistan” (western) and “Sharqistan”(Eastern) similar to what happened in Berlin after World War II. In the first part, the Syrian army will continue fighting al-Qaeda and its allies with the support of Russia. While in the second part, the Arabs would establish their forces to impose a political change and could destabilise the regime. In the meantime, the regime forces are at 60km from Raqqa, while, Turkey is at 180 km from ISIS main city. Therefore, if the idea to defeat ISIS is genuine, the U.S led coalition doesn’t need to intervene and walk all this distance from Turkey or Jordan to Raqqa. However, The race to Raqqa is declared, with the possibility or without the possibility of an Arab-Turkish intervention”.
According to the source “the gates of hell will be open in the next 3 months in Syria against al-Qaeda and its allies and also against ISIS. As agreed in Geneva between Russia and the United States, any cease-fire shall not include Jihadists and their allies. If Syrian opposition do not disengage from al-Qaeda, they are legitimate targets because they become united as one group and dealt with accordingly”.
Al-qaeda in Syria, known as Jabhat al-Nusra, is part of Jaish al-fateh, a coalition of many Syrian groups operating in northern Syria. Al-Qaeda and Jihadist movements are sending reinforcement to northern Aleppo in the last 48 hours, but used to maintain a strong presence around Nubbl and Zahraa, the two cities that Russia and its allies brock the siege imposed for over three and a half years. Al-Qaeda fighters pulled back toward the north of Aleppo fighting in Tal-Rifaat and others toward the south of Zahraa where they are fighting in Andan and Hay’yan.
According to the source, human and signal intelligence confirmed that “Saudi Arabia has asked Syrian opposition associated and not-associated with al-Qaeda not to waive any proposition in the Geneva negotiations and not to hand over any cites in Syria without fighting. Time is crucial and Saudi Arabia will continue its military support to the opposition, waiting for a new U.S. to be elected. The battle is expected to be more intense where everybody is holding the ground which indicates that the war is still far form being over”
Neither flight nor flight in Syria.
They just want to make the America jump, while Obama takes selfies of himself with them prancing in the background making fools of themselves…
The Ottoman empire could never take out Iran in the past, there is no way Turkey can take out Iran now. The Ottoman empire could never even take out those tribes in Yemen in the past.
Let Iran deal with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, all Russia needs to do is deliver supplies to Yemen, the Kurds, Syria and Iran, and make it too costly for Nato aircraft to fly over Syria and Iran.
It would be nice to have cruise missiles take out all infrastructure in Turkey and Saudi Arabia just to cause more problems for them. A strike on the Saudi oilfields will increase the price of oil, and supplying weapons to the Shia Arabs in that region will ensure the Saudi’s never gain control over those oil fields again.
New Footage of SAA Operation in Latakia including Russian CAS & GoPro Cam
SYria Real Infos And News – SYRIAN
A documentary on the advancement of Syrian Army and NDF in the axis #Kinsabba – #Araa and #Syriatel_hill the last stronghold of Qaeda in the northern countryside of Lattakia, yesterday
SYria Real Infos And News – SYRIAN
#Syria’s army – is the only Arab army with Christians as Generals …
Syria: ‘Quicksand’ for Saudi Forces?
By Awad Mustafa and Aaron Mehta, Defense News 10:03 a.m. EST February 14, 2016
DUBAI and BRUSSELS — As the United States receives commitments from Gulf Arab allies to contribute more to a coalition campaign in Syria, doubts remain because of their ongoing military involvement in Yemen.
Furthermore, statements by unnamed Saudi officials earlier this month about a force of 150,000 — including troops from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partners Sudan, Egypt and Jordan — being prepared to invade Syria from Turkey have been rebuffed by at least two members of the anti-Islamic State coalition.
A Jordanian official confirmed that the country will not participate in any Turkish- or Arab-led Syrian invasion unless mandated by the United Nations, led by western forces and coordinated with Russia.
“Jordan is not going to send ground forces into Syria unless these troops are led by Americans and British,” the Jordanian official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “We have very long borders with Iraq and Syria which are more than 550 kilometers. Any ground troops including Jordanian forces should be sent after a UN approval and after full coordination with Russia.”
On Feb. 9, a senior Kuwaiti official told Reuters that despite Kuwait’s backing of international efforts against hard-line Islamist groups, the Gulf Arab state’s constitution prevents it from fighting in anything but defensive wars.
On the Saudi capability to wage a two-front war in both Syria and Yemen, Carter said he does not think they wish to be doing that any more than anybody else would wish, but they do have the capability and willingness to put the resources into the anti-ISIS fight.
“The Saudis have developed an exceptional projection capability especially with their air transport and their special forces that they have developed in the past few years,” he said. “Their ability is to move in quickly and establish local partnerships. Its modeled after the American approach. They are elite units. They are fast and mobile and with a full-spectrum capability to move and operate on short notice.
“That said, absolutely the Saudis have the capability to project to southern Turkey pretty quickly but with units that have specific function.”
However Syria is a different animal given the geopolitical complexities, the Russian involvement and the Iranian presence on the ground in northern Syria, Shabander said.
“A full-fledged Turkish-Arab conventional force incursion into northern Syria requires either a NATO air umbrella or international coalition support,” he said.
On the involvement of Saudi forces in Yemen, Shabandar said that the Arab coalition understands it’s going to be a resource-intensive effort that presents challenges to simultaneously project in other fronts at the same level.
“But it can absolutely be done as long as it is a truly joint effort with international strategic partners,” he said.
“The logistical challenge doesn’t preclude sending expeditionary and recon elements into the Syrian-Jordanian border or Syrian-Turkish border with Turkish or Jordanian forces but the wild factor at the end of the day is: Will NATO and/or the United States provide the needed air cover to successfully accomplish a stabilization mission against Daesh in northern and southern Syria?” he said, using an alternative name for the Islamic State group. “Let’s not forget that the ongoing Russian aerial bombardment is per military reports actually enabling Daesh in northern Syria and Damascus suburbs”
He added that Shia extremist foreign fighters that are being flown into Syria would view an Arab coalition effort into northern Syria as a direct threat because the Shia extremist forces that are fighting on the Aleppo front are direct clients of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, so essentially they are of the same strain as the Houthi forces in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia will most likely deploy special operators, combat aircraft and some combat troops; however, it is unlikely they will dedicate more than 3,500 combat troops and 6,500 support personnel — equivalent to the number operating in Yemen, Hedges said.
“The quality of manpower in either the Yemen of Syria theater will be greatly affected by this decision. With only partial, previous combat experience, it is unlikely there will be enough troops ready and capable of contributing to both theaters. This had led to the suggestion that the unconfirmed reports that the Saudi Arabia is ready to enter a ground war in Syria is to prompt an international coalition to form to counter Islamic extremism and a resurgent Assad regime,” he added.
“The really big question on Syria is whether getting more militarily involved will help resolve those threats or make them worse. That really depends on how the guns are brought silent and, far more important, how Syria is rebuilt and the people given hope, jobs and housing after the guns are silent.”
Thanks Saker for this level headed article. So many comments and reports are coming out at such a fast pace, it leaves one’s head in a rinse cycle. I look at it this way. Russia may not have enough weaponry there in Syria, but it has the will. The SAA has the fighting power to see it win. Turkey and the Saudis may have all the gizmos and gadgets money can buy, but they seem to not have the full will to see it to the end. And by Turkey, I mean its people, because in the end THEY are the ones who will be burying their dead. The last picture i saw of the Saudi army, I was reminded of security guards at my local mall.
It truly amazes me to look at the actions of the crazy morons in Turkey and SA. They are so demented in their hatred of president Bashar-al-Assad, one man, that they are willing to plunge the world into WW3 just to remove him. It is patently obvious that the nutcase Erdogan and his equally demented counterparts in SA are actively pushing for US/NATO involvement in the proposed ground invasion to oust Assad, as they are clearly publicly saying they are waiting for the final green light from Washington to start their invasion, and are obviously relying on US/NATO military back up once they begin their invasion to oust president Assad under the pretext of going in to “fight ISIS”.
They aren’t even bothering to pretend to fight ISIS anymore as the reason for invading Syria, the Saudi foreign minister has openly said to the press that they must first “get rid of Assad in order to begin fighting ISIS. What sort of twisted back to front logic is that and do they really have such a low opinion of the intelligence of the public that they expect people to swallow this patently self serving load of sh*t ? The whole world knows who has been funding ISIS and al-Qaeda and boko haram and numerous other terrorist groups throughout the world and it isn’t president Assad.
President Putins blitz on the jihadi scumbags in Syria has exposed the wests “war on terror” for the duplicitous load of crap it really is, so now the whore of Babylon finds it is being forced, and not least by its own regional “allies”, into making a final choice on Syria. Either give the whole thing up and admit defeat in Syria or finally show their hand and openly come out on the side of their jihadi proxies whom they have been covertly supporting all along anyway and risk an open confrontation with the Russians.
So America now finds itself in a pickle, no more pretending to be “degrading and destroying” ISIS while secretly bolstering its fighting capabilities (in the more than one year the US led “coalition” was supposedly “bombing” ISIS they doubled the territory under their control while in the 4 months Russia has been bombing them for real sees them in disarray and on the run). Which way will America go ? I personally think they are too gutless to openly confront the Russian army. They are too used to murdering relatively defenceless people armed only with AK47s and RPGs and haven’t got the fibre to go up against a first class army like the Russians have. That being said you can never ignore the crazy factor, these are people so far up their own backsides with hubris they are practically divorced from reality. You only have to listen to the likes of McCain or Killary and you get the gist.
I think the way America goes entirely depends on just how much of a hold the Saudis have over Washington, and while we are on this topic lets get one thing clear, the house of Saud is indivisible from Israel, these two work together.
depends on just how much of a hold the Saudis have over Washington,
when israel is mighty.
who runs the world a 2nd class donmeh jewish mi5 run family called saud
or real jewish khazar royalty in the empire of the city of london,washington new york and tel aviv.
qatar saud and the dog erdogan are low level jewish money bag men and muscle.
the sauds have no real ideas or power the rabbi in brookings and chatham house write the scripts
Erdogan and Saudis should remember April Glaspie….
Naw.. he should remember the guy in Libya.. April did not lose her life and she was just a patsy and still gets a paycheck.. But for the empire everyone is disposable as long as the next trillion dollaha setup takes place. It is just amazing that americans are so meek. The rest must go along with things to not rock the boat not realizing that they are the last in line to be fleeced when they run out of places to loot and plunder. Unbelievable that 2008 did not wake people up. Maybe why the romans went along with things as well until they got the beejas scared out of them by Spartacus. Being exceptional means it wont happen to me..
A Kremlin employee posted this on his facebook page last night and I copied it about what Erdogan did to US helicopters and US response.
” I translated it from Google translation.
“Turkish Fuhrer completely mad. His artillery shelled the positions of “People’s Self-Defense Forces” Syrian Kurds. Even the US State Department attended shelling and tense situation in the north of Aleppo … It still does the data have recently emerged that the Turks struck his favorite “stab in the back” have Americans killing 2 helicopters and 12 US Marines, who delivered financial aid to Syrian the Kurds. American management decided to hide this information, fearing the outcry of its citizens that the US Marines destroys an ally in NATO. However, in retaliation, two US bomber A-10 “Warthog” bombed command centers of Turkish puppets in Aleppo, and then the representative of the United States Army in Baghdad, Colonel Warren blatantly lied that supposedly is VKS Russia bombed “two hospitals” in Aleppo. Nevertheless, relations between Washington and Ankara seriously complicated. US Ambassador John Bass asked Ankara not to publicize the differences between Turkey and the US over Syrian Kurds, but Erdogan has ignored this request and began openly to demand from the United States to make a choice either in favor of Turkey, or in favor of “Kobanov terrorists.” Now Erdogan together with the Saudis engaged in blatant provocation hoping to draw the United States into a clash with the army of Assad, and hence and Russia. And a pair of US helicopters for this purpose – a mere trifle … I think the Turks deserved a fitting end to the friendship with the Americans.”
Thanks very much for this enlightening piece of information that nicely ties up the chronology of events. Next time you wish to translate something from Russian into English try using yandex, its much, much better than google at translating Russian.
Any golden moment like claimed would not have been missed to blame it on Russia/Assad.
on that you can be sure.
Turkish opposition parties including the nationalists all against invasion!
Biden phones Turkey and tells them to stop shelling.
Former Turkish FM thinks invasion with Saudis will be a disaster for Turkey!
I wonder if the USA wants Erdogan and the current Saudi rulers to overstep and reap civil wars in their own countries? If billions of dollars of fighter planes and weaponry are wasted, and ground forces decimated, already restive populations may be empowered or encouraged to dump at least the leadership. The plan seems to be to create chaos, depopulate areas, so that outside `powers´ can draw the new lines to the Middle East. And yes, it is hard not to sense the hand of Israel with their insane Greater Israel Project, expanding their borders through genocide, and letting others provide the weapons and soldiers. My prayers are for peace.
I believe the US might encourage the Saudis to fly their brand new powerful jets into Syria in order to test the new Russian air missile system installed in Syria to see how well it performs. The US has been known to do things like this before.
Thank you Sir for giving the common man the clear picture of what’s really going on in Syria.
Syrian report for feb 14th
note Erdogan alledges rus cruises missiles have destroyed a MSF hospital today killing many
this is gonna be a v v v hot hot hot topic…..
…”–Medecins Sans Frontiers/Doctors Without Borders: “Doctors Without Borders is fully funded by the very same corporate financier interests behind Wall Street and London’s collective foreign policy, including regime change in Syria and neighboring Iran.
Doctors Without Borders’ own annual report (2010 report can be accessed here), includes as financial donors, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Google, Microsoft, Bloomberg, Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital, and a myriad of other corporate-financier interests. Doctors Without Borders also features bankers upon its Board of Advisers including Elizabeth Beshel Robinson of Goldman Sachs.
Complicating further Doctors Without Borders so-called “independent” and “aid” claims is the fact that their medical facilities are set up in terrorist held regions of Syria, especially along Syria’s northern border with NATO-member Turkey.
In an interview with NPR, Doctors Without Borders’ Stephen Cornish revealed the nature of his organization’s involvement in the Syrian conflict, where he explains that aid is being sent to regions outside of the Syrian government’s control, and that his organization is in fact setting up facilities in these areas…
.In other words, the Wall Street-funded organization is providing support for militants armed and funded by the West and its regional allies, most of whom are revealed to be foreign fighters, affiliated with or directly belonging to Al Qaeda and its defacto political wing, the Muslim Brotherhood.
This so-called “international aid” organization is in actuality yet another cog in the covert military machine being turned against Syria and serves the role as a medical battalion.” [citation from: “Doctors” Behind Syrian Chemical Weapons Claims are Aiding Terrorists]”…
There will be an escalation of the conflict in Syria, but there will not be a direct US-Russia conflict.
Why? If there is a direct US-Russia conflict – no intermediaries, no proxies – then the US has to win to maintain credibility. For Russia, a draw is already sufficient.
– If the US wins, the US maintains its position as superpower.
– If there is a draw, Russia officially becomes the equal of the US.
– if Russia wins, the US loses its position as sole superpower.
In other words: the US has nothing to gain, and a lot to lose, in a conflict with Russia. So I predict there will not be a direct US-Russia conflict.
is it possible that the double cross is coming the Saudis way? largest holder(amount classified) of US debt, majority of hijackers 9/11, real Khobar Towers perpetrators, easily un-redacted(is that even a word) portions of the 9/11 report, Blackwater/Xe goons pre-positioned in Abu Dhabi, sanctions and denial of access to SWIFT…. implausible?? After what we already know about the previous US orchestrated follies?
Turkey, Saudi pursuing Syria invasion for 2 years: Assad
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says Turkey and Saudi Arabia, widely considered as the major sponsors of Takfiri terrorist groups operating in the crisis-hit country, have been trying for two years to enter Syria militarily.
Assad made the remarks in a Monday televised speech amid reports suggesting that Turkish forces have entered Syria to help foreign-backed militants fighting against the Syrian government