As of October 13, clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces continue in the southern part of the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, while on the other parts of the frontline Baku and Yerevan limited their military activity to exchange of artillery and aerial strikes. The humanitarian ceasefire signed by the sides in Moscow formally remains in force, but the terms of the ceasefire are not fulfilled by both sides.
The main point of instability is the town of Hadrut, which Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced to have been ‘liberated’ from ‘Armenian occupants’. However, Armenian forces apparently forgot to read his tweet and withdraw from the area. So, now, the Azerbaijani leader is forced to explain what’s going on.
On October 12, he sated that a large group of Armenian special forces attacked the town to make a few selfies for Armenian propaganda, but the attack was repelled. “Although from a strategic point of view, it does not matter so much for Armenia. They just take such a step to go there and take a selfie or report to their population. The Azerbaijani Army neutralized this large group,” Aliyev stressed.
The Armenian military says that the town is still in the hands of its forces and that it has successfully repelled another Azerbaijani attack there.
Turkey has been openly threatening Armenia with a joint Turkish-Azerbaijani advance if it does not surrender the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said that “Baku cannot wait for justice for another 30 years” claiming that “Turkey is ready to support the fair position of the Azerbaijani side.” According to Akar, if the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is not resolved in the near future, then the next step will be “the Azerbaijani-Turkish movement aimed at returning their land.”
Sources affiliated with Turkish-backed militant groups in Syria say that Ankara has been preparing a new deployment of militant groups’ members to Azerbaijan to support its war with Armenia. If the numbers of 1,500-2,000 fresh militants that are set to come to Azerbaijan are confirmed, this will not only make the estimated number of Turkish proxies deployed there from 4,000-6,000, but also confirm that Ankara is set to use its influence to motivate Azerbaijan to opt for the scenario of a further escalation.
Likely, the Turkish leadership seems the war in Karabakh as an important turning point, which, in the event of military success, will turn into the leading power in the Southern Caucasus and give additional momentum to its geopolitical expansion. It will also boost the popularity of Recep Tayyip Erdogan that positions himself as the leader of the Turkic world and a de-facto Sultan of his own Neo-Ottoman Empire.
According to the Armenian side, the Turkish military is already directly involved in the war. In particular, the presence of Turkish F-16s, Turkish special forces, military advisers and Turkish-backed Syrian militants in Azerbaijan are hardly deniable facts.
It is interesting to observe how for example the main version from Turkish and Azerbaijani sources about the Turkish F-16 jets switched from public denial of their presence to claims that they are not involved directly in the conflict and are just needed to deter Armenian aggression. Reports from the ground and the diplomatic posture of the sides indicate that Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, is preparing a new military push against Armenian forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh region to consolidate and expand its initial gains before the winter.
Colonel (retired) Aleksandr Zhilin has written an interesting and informative article that says that Erdogan is Russia’s number one active enemy, and that the endless appeasement of the Ottomans has achieved nothing for Russia and never will. He also says that Erdogan – this is something I also said here in these columns, over and over – is winning, not about to crash and burn.
However, Colonel Zhilin seems to believe that the Ottomans aren’t acting with the covert knowledge and encouragement of the Amerikastani Empire. With the Ottomans still in NATO, Amerikastani nuclear weapons still stationed in Turkey, and Amerikastan aggressively waging economic, political, propaganda and proxy war against Russia, this is impossible to believe. Putin’s appeasement of Erdogan is appeasement of the warmongers in Warshington as well.
Turkey is eternal russian enemy and Moscow will have to face Erdogan’s Turkey sooner or later…Armenia is red line and if Turkey attack Armenia then Russia will have to support Erevan.
I respect Putin but all agreements with Erdogan in Syria and with S-400 are mistakes.
Russia cannot make Turks friends and partners and never will.
These Turkish treats to Armenia mean that war is not going very well for Azeris despite to all propaganda.
Moscow must warn Ankara seriously.
And it is very very very naive to think that American evil empire has nothing with this mess in Caucasus region.
This is perfect trap for Russia and Empire will not miss this oportunity to get Russia in trouble.
This is the most dangerous and serious challenge to Russia and Putin so far.
But Great Lunatic from Ankara will have to be stopped.
I find it hard to believe that Russia simply sold the S-400 without taking in consideration Turkey’s duplicity.
For one thing, Russia’s support has Turkey (which, critically, controls the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits) a less enthusiastic NATO member. On the other hand, I find it incredulous that Russia has handed out such lethal military hardware without some sort of a backdoor as a guarantee against being stabbed in the back. In fact, besides a “kill switch,” I wouldn’t be surprised if the S-400 system “phones home” any valuable information it collects.
In fact, as anyone whose computer had been infested with malware can attest, phoning home isn’t terribly hard. Data can get compressed, encrypted, and relayed via TOR to Russia—when circumstances are best to evade detection. Not only are these very well understood technologies and trivial to implement, but extremely difficult to detect (and intercept).
If my suspicions are correct, the S-400 must have granted two advantages to Russia: it has put some distance between Turkey and the US, and collects valuable information—all with Turkey’s money.
And the Turks don’t know that ?? Russia, together with the Central Asian Turkish people, need to stop the farce about Turkish nations that do speak the form of the Turkish language, but are not Turks. As once they were Turkified they can be Russified, but that does not implement International rules of behaviour. By emphasizing the Turkish heritage in non-Turkish peoples, Russia gets a rival for space to eastern Siberia. Rival who can claim historic right on that land. With the real Turks (win-win), the issue of those Kazakhs, Turkmen and Tajiks who are not Turks can be resolved. With Iran they can resolve the issue of Azers who are also not Turks. Throughout history, the border has been on the Aras River. All these ethnicites, tribes were converted to Turks by the passage of Turko-Mongolic armies through these areas, but there was no mass migration. Proven by science as far as I know on the sample of 40 and 300 thousand people, maybe there are more….. It was not possible for conditions of that time.
They should help provoke Turkey to confrontation with NATO and the EU. It is also in the interest of globalists and Israel. Especialy now, when there is nothing left from the sale of raw materials to a so called “neutral” EU. They do not have the strength to get out of the vassal relationship. They only see their chance in a fall of America, for them to take the primacy of the colonial ruler.
It is beyond reasonable doubt that the Turkish military would know (or, at least, suspect) the existence of a kill switch and/or data harvesting. However, knowing/suspecting and neutralizing are two different things.
It is extremely difficult to detect a few hundreds of line of (usually encrypted) code in the millions of lines of code in the firmware of such an advanced system. Just take as an example how many academicians were needed to audit the few thousands of lines of code in the the Wireguard vpn protocol. Now multiply this by two or three orders of magnitude to understand how difficult would be to audit the firmware in such a complicated system as the S-400. Simply put, no single country has enough resources (in skilled personnel, money, and time) to audit the firmware of just one system.
And yet, even auditing the firmware would be a trivial thing to do, compared to analyzing integrated circuitry. If Russia has implemented an ASIC (specialized integrated circuitry) for a kill switch/data harvesting, it would be nearly impossible to locate it and bypass it. For example, take the Qualcomm’s Snapdragon mobile processors—nobody knows what lurks in their integrated modems (which forms a tiny part of the processor). For Android OS, the modem part of the processor is simply a black box: the OS passes instructions, and the modem returns results, but nobody knows if that’s all the modem does. For all we know, the modem could be phoning the NSA on a regular basis. In fact, this has been the Achilles heel of the American military—they were buying cheap electronics from China for their equipment and now they have no idea what hardware might be compromised. The US military has started a program to phase out Chinese electronics from their equipment, but given the extent of the problem it is projected it will take 25 years of consistent efforts to replace them.
I suspect that kill switches and data harvesting methods to be embedded in many military electronics—certainly in the “system of systems” such as aircraft jets and anti-aircraft batteries . Anecdotally, Greek air-force pilots had leaked that the Greek F-16s can be remotely commandeered by the US. It only makes sense. Historically, no superpower had allowed its satellite states to form independent foreign policy, and the complexity of modern military hardware allow for unique methods of blackmailing.
Given how easy is to implement kill switches / data harvesters in modern electronics, how hard it is to locate and neutralize these, and the geopolitical benefits these compromising features bestow to their manufacturers, I find it incredulous that Russia sold clean systems to Turkey. If history has shown us something is that Russians are not stupid.
In fact, the data harvesting fear is why the US is making such big ruckus against Turkey purchasing the S-400 system. It is not only that the system might be capable of downing an F-35 or two, but that once the system learns how to recognize the radar signature of an F-35, it could then transmit it back to Russia and propagate it throughout its aerial defense complexes.
By the way, most people mistakenly believe that the stealth aircraft are completely invisible to radars. This is *not* what stealth is. Stealth technology attempts to minimize the radar signature of an object enough as to make it difficult to distinguish it from background noise. In practice, the physics of radio waves propagation dictate that each object must be optimized for stealth in certain frequencies and from angles. Thus, jet fighters are usually optimized to reduce their signature in the mm-wide radio waves that are used to produce a firing solution; but these jest can be still seen in the cm-wide waves (think . Sensor fusion (radar and infrared) governed by modern DSPs is increasingly rendering obsolete the stealth technology. This is one of the reasons why Russians are now integrating L-Band radars (think, Tikhomirov NIIP) and infrared trackers in their jets; these systems work synergistically to diminish the stealth advantage in dogfights.
Returning to the S-400, once the system gets trained to recognize the radar signature of the stealth aircraft, it can then pass the information back to Russia, which can then integrate it in all their aerial defense systems. Once the Russian systems get trained to distinguish the F-35’s signature, the stealth advantage evaporates.
In fact, this fear is why most F-35 in the Middle East are *not* allowed by the US to fly in stealth configuration. Instead, they have a Luneburg lens attached so as to *increase* their radar signature (and safeguard their stealth signature for combat operations).
Considering all these, it is highly improbable to think that the Russians have sold “clean” systems to Turkey. And as it is apparent from the ruckus it has created, the US military thinks so, too. Russia is using the sales of her defensive systems for geopolitical and tactical advantages, at Turkey’s expense.
I’m not an expert in that area, but from my point of view I’m not sure is it safe after you nicely explained the US-Chinese mixing case. Anyway thank you. Cheers
It’s not discussed much but the device that exerts the most control over whether an active AD system fires or not is supposed to be the IFF, friend or foe system. S400 software may execute a contingency protocol if the unit’s asked to fire on a craft transmitting Russian callsigns. I personally wouldn’t want to find out.
…..Turkey is eternal russian enemy and Moscow will have to face Erdogan’s Turkey sooner or later……
Why would Russians go to war with Turkey? That is only the dream of the former catholic people in the EU. Orthodox and Muslims at war, you are picking fruit. Maybe it is more certain (if Russian leadership is cut off dancing with the “raw material” clients) to let NATO “stars” from Balcan to fix this job with the Turks with Greece as a “reason”. You Croats in Bosnia will get Bosniaks to talk. Also to get the opportunity through the SOFA / IPAP agreement to enter Belgrade with other NATO members to help the Yugoslav traitors of Serbian nation (you did it already once with Broz Tito), the same way as the Turkey would enter the Caucasus through the IPAP / SOFA agreement. Do not worry, you will soon show your skills of warfare what you are bragging around. Colonial powers without war cannot reset the failed economic system and write off debts.
You are talking BS. Things that have nothing with Russia, and this war
Erdogan is dangerous for all of us because he has very strong influense on Muslims in Balkan and in some other regions of former Ottoman Empire.
Serbia is also under Empire’s umbrella. And for muslims in Serbia Sandzak, Erdogan is an idol, God.
And historical animosity between Serbs and Muslims in Bosnia and ex-Yugoslavia is enormous.
We Croats, an any other people of ex-Yugoslavia are not going to fight against Russia. Empire can buy politicians and generals but ordinary people do not share anti-russian sentiment and we do not like Empire if you think so. Not so much to fight and die for it.
In ex-Yugoslava only two ethnic groups have really strong anti-russian feeling, Bosniaks Muslims and Albanians. Bosniaks only because they are stupid enough to identify Russians with Serbs but they would not go to war for the West interests.
Only Albanians are extremelly anti-russian.
Serbian people are generally pro-russian but Serbian political elites NEVER. Never in history including today.
Erdogan’s Turkey will cross red line sooner or later. Russia will not have any other choice.
Russia need peace for 10 or 15 years or economic development and national projects
But I think that Empire knows that if they let Russia to f focus on its economy, in 15 years Russia will be strongest in the world. And Empire will not let Russia alone in peace to achieve that.
Empire will try to use Lunatic from Ankara as a tool against Russia.
And this war is excellent opportunity for Empire to get Russia in trouble.
But Lunatic is unpreadictible even for Empire.
It would be great if Russia manage to avoid any war for next 10 to 15 years and to focus on economy, science, life standard, infrastructure and national projects.
But it is going to be very difficult.
2019 RAND document called “Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground.” it pretty much spells out how and why and what is occuring. ZOG game play. i find that National Endowment for Democracy (NED ) grants reveal where pressure is to be applied. belarus has had many grants for example.
I think the problem is the president of Armenia. Turkey knows how to take advantage of crises.
Lavrov on tv interview ths morning with mainstream media … Turkey is an important partner….
The questioners drift seemed to be sincerely representing public concern about Turkey and raising questions about this issue…Lavrov seemed to be saying the americans are much much worse…eg northeast Syria and everywhere.
Hope some expert can pick apart the extensive interview properly. Yes there is a ceasefire document re N-K….but no practical means to enforce it.
Personally I would like to know if Armenia was responsible for the huge explosion in Ganja or not….some rumours of a suicide bomb to create a false flag. Looked like the suicide bomb as in the film the Kingdom to me……wish there was accurate analysis of who has done what and assessment of damages done.
It is indeed a NATO operation, and they don’t hide it.
“Secretary General in Ankara: Turkey is a valued NATO Ally”
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg started a two-day visit to Turkey and Greece on Monday (5 October 2020). While in Ankara, Mr. Stoltenberg had discussions with President Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, and Defence Minister Hulusi Akar about the security situation in the region, NATO’s support for Turkey, and the establishment of a military de-confliction mechanism with Greece.
The Turks cannot forget the Ottoman empire. What this means is that neither Erdogan nor a large percentage of the population can forget their imperial history. They will always look outside their borders. When it comes to Armenia, Erdogan is applying Bismarckian tactics, turning innocents into aggressors. He needs to present Armenia as the “aggressor”, so that he can have a retroactive excuse for the Turkish genocide of Armenians during World War One. Few will buy this transparent tactic.
As I have written before, Erdogan is playing a very dangerous game. He is courting both Russia and the US, and going against both. He is also under the impression that he can play the two super powers against each other. A naive delusion.
What is additionally dangerous both for Turkey and that part of the world, is the fact that Erdogan is now threatening Armenia with military intervention if he does not return Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan (how “principled” of him; he is apparently doing his best to forget the Turkish occupation of Constantinople, which the Turks renamed Istanbul.). Erdogan obviously wants to assume a geopolitical presence in the Caucasus. A foolish course of action, as this will lead to a conflict with Russia.
Putin did make overtures to Erdogan. However, Putin is no fool. When the Turkish forces in Syria began with military provocations against the Syrian Army, the Russians responded with a bombing assault against the Turkish military, using SU-34’s. The attack was a nasty surprise for Erdogan. He is risking another surprise in Armenia. No doubt he is counting on NATO support, since Turkey is a NATO member. However, he would be well advised to remember that the EU has constantly rejected Turkish demands for membership. The EU is the civilian component of NATO. There is not a single NATO member who would risk a military confrontation with Russia over Erdogans imperial policies. I am not sure Erdogan understands this.
In your comment you stated that American nuclear weapons are still stationed in Turkey. This is highly debatable. In 2016 the US tried a coup d’etat against Erdogan, which failed miserably. At least one analyst has stated that after the botched coup, the US immediately removed their nukes, placing them in Germany. This would appear a logical course of action, as who would trust Erdogan not commandeering the nukes ? Nobody.
Fairly interesting: Iran shot down an Israeli drone in Iranian air space, according to a brief report on Cassad.
Not many details as to flight path, etc although did indicate that the drone was the type being supplied to the azaris and being used by the aseis against armenia.
Erodgan and his military know the Russians will move in to protect Armenia if it is attacked.
He will send more drones but he’s not sending his military. The Russians would destroy the Turks.
He would also lose most of the 3800 ISIS and AQ fighters he imported from Syria.
The Russians want diplomacy and dialogue to settle this.
Sending Russian and ODBK peacekeepers is only way to implement ceasefire and to keep peace to open process of negotiation for political solution.
I think the 3800 head-chopping liver-eating imbeciles are already dead. They just don’t know it yet. Russians will not pass on an opportunity like this to rid themselves of that scourge and, who knows, Erdo may just be ok with it too.
what next? azeri nationalism with a call for a seperatists state? spreading into iran?
To Larch & Croat et al., Approx. 240km from North West border corner of Azerbaijan to Grozny. Sure well beaten/worn tracks/paths between hilly terrain of these two regions since centuries. Now weather is mild max 28 and night 15C. in Grozny. Mountain bikes and/or kayaks along coast.!!! . So apparently 3800 headchoppers brought into Baku with 10-20%!!?? hardened Chechnyans fighters eager to head home. Since Oct. 11 already, reported 3 dead border police in Grozny after clash. Unless they are carrying GPS beepers, unlikely, or on Afghani drugs… I fail to see how Russian border security is going to have a straight forward & effective mopping up/elimination operation in this often favorable guerilla terrain. Sure Putin is ahead in this ‘chess game’ as usual, especially with tricky Erdogan. But still worrying with 6000 km?? of constantly probed/infiltrated land borders from Baltic to Mongolia to patrol and drone. Your input, thanks..
Restive borders are nothing new in that part of the world. The people of the Caucasus are of a very special type: hardened, cunning and when one throws Islam into the mix it all becomes highly volatile. However, Russians are of that part too. It is their domain and they will handle the ruckus much better than anyone.
I would like to see comrade Kadirov active in south Caucasus. Give him free hands and takfiris will be served as delicious dog dinner.
I don’t know if Armenia is already doing these things.But if not I would suggest they do.
1.There are large Armenian diasporas in the world.The two biggest are in Russia and in the US.Start recruiting young ethnic Armenians with previous military training to join them.That was a great help in Donbass,when Russian volunteers made up 20% or so of the peoples army.
2.Have meetings with the Kurds in Turkey.And start arming them.While also talking to Assad in Syria about if Turkey attacks Armenia he could reclaim territory in Syria Illegally occupied by Turkey.
Erdogan must be made to understand that if continues with his game he will face guerilla war inside Turkey. Which might be the straw that breaks his back.And another coup,this time successful,might bring him down.
The mejlis seem to have a stake in the operations of Azerbaijan too…remember Erdogan does support mejlis particularly from Crimea who feel hard done by and have been participatory in sabotage there……
Just appeared on Colonel Cassad:
“2. Азербайджан нанес удары по армянским ракетным системам на территории Армении. И официально признал это. Фактически, была атакована территория союзника РФ по ОДКБ. Теперь уже официально и без всяких вопросов к верификации. Теперь Армения уже действительно может запросить официальную военную помощь в рамках договора о коллективной безопасности. ”
“- Azerbaijan confirmed they bombed rocket systems in Armenia propper,. They (Az) officially confirmed. Since territory of a member of SCO has been attacked, officially and without questions for verification. Armenia can legally ask for military support, based on Collective Security Agreement (SCO?)”
It looks period of speculations who should/could/would do what is over. Now an option we never thought of emerges – Russian troops between Karabakh and Azerbaijan. Interesting, indeed.
Yup…Shoigu’s team checking that….he has spoken to both countries leaders. Interesting.
An ancient Russian proverb says “Who does not listen to Putin, will listen to Shoigu” :-)
The people of Armenia have a choice to make: stick with the current traitor regime that is aspiring to mimic Republic of Azerbaijan/Aliyev dictatorship in becoming a Zionist vassal, or evict the Zionist puppets who have hijacked Armenia and restore true nationalism and political independence. If Armenia is to retain any level of national pride and dignity, as well as credibility when confronting the Adversary, they have no choice but the latter, as the former will only result in a neoliberal dictatorship promoting secularism, feminism, homosexuality, and all the other most negative aspects of contemporary Western “civilization.”
Armenia must reaffirm their ancient Christian identity and culture and return to the grace of God. Otherwise, not even Russia with all her might will be able to save them from the horrors to come. They, like all Zionist slave states, will be beyond redemption.
It is a choice between Christ and Antichrist, and it goes without saying that the only true path to ultimate freedom and success is Christ. And this is true from a Muslim perspective as well, as the unoccultation of the Mahdi (as the Mahdi is already here, but hidden from view) is but the first phase of the end of days heralding the arrival of Christ. It is true for all humanity.
You speak 100% the truth…. much of the people on earth our only home, has become Insane without even being aware and many don’t care about anything and openly play arrogant. All the signs of the end times that Christ predicted are happening right in front of our eyes, Damascus – rubble, Disease is here, pestilance ravages Africa / Asia. never before has there been such scesmic activity – earth quakes, volcanoe explosions and tremers. rumors of war which has to come to pass is about to go hot.Scientist now admitting no such thing as global warming is caused by humans its the Almighty God rages see..
“See, the storm of the Lord will burst out in wrath, a whirlwind swirling down on the heads of the wicked. The anger of the Lord will not turn back until he fully accomplishes the purposes of his heart. In days to come you will fully understand it clearly.” (Jeremiah 23:19–20)
Jesus is our only salvation….. as Evil greed for power, Violence, extreme pervertedness, self righteous and vain is too great… I feel being saved by Christ for the righteous who held his name and word is the last we can hope for in the eternal life with a promise of peace. I stil think we have to face death as Jesus saith there will be great miracles in the sky but we will know, when its Christ as we will not be part of this world when he appears to us, I think I read that part in the revelations a lonG time ago, correct me if I’m wrong on that last part.
Turkey (and its American master) only can be deterred by giving them a taste of their own medicine.
It is high time that certain other nations start arming and supporting restive nations inside Turkey itself–like the Kurds–and also Native Americans, Hawaiians, or Mexicans, whole land America stole and currently occupies.
Let’s see how the Turks and Americans act when their own empires implode from within, as they are off waging wars of aggression around the planet.
Americans in particular will become even more hysterical and triggered snowflakes then they face internal rebellions from the nations inside the imperial American Homeland itself.