[This article was written for the Unz Review]
Petro Poroshenko is in deep trouble. His ratings have been in the single-digit range in spite of a vast propaganda effort, and his latest attempt to create a salvific crisis involving the usual “Russian aggression” has not only failed but appears to be backfiring.
It is now becoming abundantly clear that the Ukronazi provocation was not only breathtakingly stupid and irresponsible, but also breathtakingly poorly planned and executed. The documents seized by the FSB on the Ukrainian ships show that the Ukrainian captains were given the order to “covertly” sneak under the Kerch bridge. I have no idea what the Ukronazi junta leaders were thinking, maybe they were drunk or terrified to tell Poroshenko that this was a suicidal mission (most likely he was too drunk to care anyway), but the fact that they could even imagine that three old boats could somehow sneak around the Crimean Peninsula and then covertly pass under the Kerch bridge is just amazing (as is the fact that the crews failed to destroy this damning evidence!). One of the most heavily monitored sections of our planet, right next to a war zone, which has been the object of innumerable threats, and yet they thought that they could somehow avoid being detected and intercepted. Wow, just wow!
As for the crews of these three tiny ships, they all owe their lives to the FSB Coastguard officers who could have merely blown all three ships away in seconds, but who clearly did their utmost to avoid killing any of the Ukrainians. Only after many hours of absolutely ridiculous slow speed maneuvering (if you speak Russian, you can listen to the entire radio exchange between the two sides right here), did the Russians eventually fire a few shots and ram the Ukrainian tug. Frankly, these Coastguard officers deserve some kind of humanitarian award.
[Sidebar: (Soviet and now) Russian Border Guards should in no case be assumed to be some kind of Russian version of the sort of border guards you see in the West. The truth is that the Russian border guards are an elite force whose level of training can be compared with the famous Airborne Forces. Their role is not only to check visas and look for contraband, but also to be a real fighting force which, in case of war, would be tasked with resisting the enemy until the regular armed forces take over. They are subordinated to the FSB (in the past to the KGB) because they do conduct intelligence operations and because they are a key element in the Russian counter-terrorist and counter-insurgency capabilities. This is why such elite special forces as the KGB Vympel Spetsnaz unit so often recruited border guards. A good friend of mine who used to be a Vympel commander with the rank of Colonel told me how in Afghanistan they recruited as many border guards as paratroopers because in his opinion “they were at least as tough and disciplined” as the airborne soldiers. The Russian border guards are also equipped with modern and powerful weapons and can conduct sub-unit level combat operations. The Ukrainian officers must have known this, and thus must have realized that regardless of the number of weapons they had onboard (quite a lot, actually, see here), they had no chance whatsoever to prevail. Besides, the Ukrainian ships are tiny and old while the Russian border guards could count on Black Sea Fleet and Aerospace and Ground Forces support – hence the Ka-52s and Su-25’s scrambled to meet the Ukrainian reinforcements coming from Odessa. Frankly, I don’t think that even a full US Marine Expeditionary Unit could cross the Kerch Strait, let alone the Ukrainians :-) the geography just favors the defending side too much]
There is a broad consensus in both Russia and the Ukraine that the primary goal of Poroshenko was to create a pretext to introduce martial law and cancel the elections. Once introduced, such a martial law can easily be prolonged for as long as needed; see what the French did. He planned to introduce martial law over the entire Nazi-occupied Ukraine, and then prolong it for as long as needed; enough to cancel the elections and then harshly deal with any protests. The plan completely failed.
First, all the opposition parties immediately understood what this was all about, and they all vehemently protested. When the text came to a vote in the Rada, it was massively watered-down and, as a result, the martial law will only be introduced for one month and only in the following regions of the Ukraine:
This is bad, very bad news for Petro.
First, these areas are where the regime suspects the locals of pro-Russian sympathies (they are right, by the way). But the risk for Petro does not come at all from the pro-Russian folks; the real danger for him comes from the various nationalist legal opposition movements who have their power base in the blue areas which will not be covered by this law.
Second, since the law was introduced for only one month and since it includes an obligation not to cancel the upcoming elections, it will be hard for Petro to crack down on the propaganda capabilities of his opponents (lead by Iulia Timoshenko).
Third, Petro probably hoped that the Russians would simply use a few missiles or blow the Ukrainian three ship armada into smithereens. Alas, the evil Moskal’s did nothing of the sort, and they captured all three vessels and their crews. So as panic-generating incidents go, this one was a terrible flop. In fact, the Russians are now using these ships and crews for their own propaganda which ridicules Petro and (correctly) states that the regime in Kiev sent these sailors to certain death in total, abject indifference. None of that will increase Poroshenko’s ratings…
Fourth, it appears that Poroshenko is really going “full-Saakashvili” and might even become the Empire’s worst Uber-loser which, by the way, can get him into real trouble with his bosses in Washington and Langley (who ditched Saakashvili when he proved to be a worthless loser). Frankly, the Empire would be *much* better off with Timoshenko in charge rather than this Eltsin-like alcoholic imbecile.
So the big question #1 is: is there a viable alternative to Poroshenko for the Empire?
To answer that we first need to answer another basic question: is there a public, official, opposition in Nazi-controlled Ukraine or not?
The answer is: both yes and no.
First, no, not in the sense of some more or less decent, real, opposition.
But yes, in the sense that the junta which seized power is composed of many different factions including oligarch/mobsters à la Kolomoskii, neo-Nazis à la Farion, bona fide Nazis à la Tiagnibok and assorted nutcases like Liashko. There is also Iulia Timoshenko, a very sharp and therefore potentially dangerous foe who has powerful backers in the USA.
Take a look at these latest ratings, and you will see that in spite of a huge “administrative resource” (Russian euphemism for abuse of government power), Petro barely makes it to 9.9% which means that his real rating must be somewhere in the 3-5 percent range.
And, remember, time is running out. On December 27th the martial law will be lifted (barring yet another Ukro-provocation to prove to the world that Russia has attacked the Ukraine yet again). Well, that is the official plan. In reality, it will most likely be prolonged with some more excuses about the mythical “Russian aggression”.
Also, consider this: if Poroshenko gets the boot, so will his criminally psychopathic thugs like (certified clinically insane) Parubii, the “bloody pastor” and war criminal Turchinov and the rest of the gang. Klimkin, since he appears to be in the CIA’s payroll, might make it out in time, but for the rest of them the risk is real and ranges from long jail sentences to being shot. Don’t expect Iulia Timoshenko to show any mercy either;
not after Petro stuck her in jail (<<== this is a “Saker brainfart” which I have now removed. The Saker)
True, while these folks all hate each other, they all feed from the same two mangers: rabid russophobia and total dependence on the Empire. And while they are united in their hatred for everything Russian, they hate each other just only a tiny little bit less (some probably even more). Think of how the SS butchered the SA, how the Stalinists purged the Party from Trotskyists or how the Democrats are trying to overthrow Trump by hook or by crook, and you will see how the factions inside the same gang *always* struggle for power and gun for each other.
Finally, there are many signs that at least Trump himself does not care very much about the Ukraine, albeit there are enough rabid russophobes amongst his puppeteers to compensate for Trump’s lack of interest and alleged dislike for Poroshenko. For Poroshenko’s point of view, the Americans either don’t care enough or simply lost control of the situation, a time-honored US tradition with their “sons of bitches” like Saddam, Noriega and many, many others.
By the way, various Ukrainian sources also report that both Merkel and Stoltenberg told Poroshenko that the election cannot be canceled. Considering that Poroshenko is almost sure to lose these elections, this might indicate that Germany and NATO are ditching Petro.
Add to this that Timoshenko would be a much better agent for the Empire and you can see why the regime is freaking out.
So the bottom line is this: no, by the standards of a normal civilized country, there is no real opposition in the Ukraine (except the powerless, destitute and terrified population of course). But, far more importantly, by the standards of Petro Poroshenko, there is a real and very dangerous opposition indeed; one which will most definitely oust him in any semi-credible elections.
The Nazi-occupied Ukraine is rapidly coming to a watershed moment. Unless the elections are stolen and the opposition crushed, the current gang in power will be ousted. If the Ukraine attacks the Donbass, this will end up with a military disaster, either at the hands of the Novorussians, or at the hands of the Russian military. If the Ukraine attacks Russia directly, or Russian forces in the Black Sea, then the Ukrainian military will simply vanish in 24-48 hours max. But in spite of that, Poroshenko desperately needs a victory lest his status of “Saakashvili-like Uber-loser” is publicly confirmed for all to see and for the Ukrainian opposition to blame it all on his incompetence and corruption (which is his real specialty: this is also why, since he came to power the Ukraine became a failed-state while his personal net worth increased many times over).
Finally, the fact that Poroshenko is a sinking ship means that, far from taking any risks on his behalf, Ukrainian politicians and military commanders must ask themselves every time they take a decision who will protect them if things go south. In fact, I bet you that there are a lot of discrete contacts between various high ranking Ukrainian officials and Iulia Timoshenko, something which the SBU probably reports to Poroshenko (or, worse, not!) and which further creates a sense of panic in him and his minions. This sense of panic might explain why, in the official journal the text of the new law mistakenly wrote 60, and not 30, days.
Putin is quite correct when he says that “Kiev would get away even with eating babies“: the collective hypocrisy of the collective West is truly limitless. That, however, does not mean that Poroshenko personally could get away with anything and everything. While the Empire’s leaders have to pretend to back the Ukraine no matter what, even against basic common sense, they are probably getting mighty fed up to have to scream “white!!” every time Poroshenko does something black. Still, until the Empire puts somebody else in power, Poroshenko will remain “their son of a bitch in Kiev”. And Poroshenko knows that, which begs the next big question:
Big question #2: could Poroshenko really start large scale war?
“Eating babies” is all fine and dandy, but a full-scale war with either Novorussia or Russia is a very different and far more dangerous proposition. The Empire might not care about Ukrainian babies, but it will most definitely care about a big war in the Ukraine. So, let’s not just look at what the Ukronazis are saying but also looking at what they are doing:
- There is martial law in all the Ukronazi occupied areas of Novorussia.
- All the Novorussian cities are now surrounded by military checkpoints.
- 300 hospitals have been ordered to prepare for a massive influx of casualties by stocking up on blood, beds and meds.
- The Ukrainian first-line reserves have now been mobilized, as have the Nazi death-squads (aka “volunteer battalions”).
- Petro is now claiming that the Russians have tripled their forces along the Ukrainian border: “the number of tanks in the bases, which are located along our border, has tripled. The number of units relocated has increased dramatically covering the entire length of our border”; in plain English that means that the Ukronazis are probably doing exactly that – surging their numbers along the line of contact.
- Petro also said that his intelligence agencies “have clear evidence that an attack on Ukrainian ships is just the beginning“; in plain English this means that the Ukronazis are probably doing exactly that – preparing further attacks.
- The border with Crimea has been closed to all non-Ukrainians.
- The Ukrainians are now asking Turkey to close the Bosporus strait (which won’t happen for two reasons: the 1936 Montreux Convention forbids this and, besides, that would be a suicidal act of war for Turkey).
- The Ukrainian war propaganda induced hysteria has reached new levels: they are now showing how kids from an orphanage (!) in Mariupol digging trenches to help the Ukrainian army for the upcoming “Russian invasion”. See for yourself this Ukrainian the report:
The art of surprise attack is one of the most fascinating aspects of warfare (those interested in this topic should read Richard Bett’s superb study “Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning“). One of it’s well established strategies is to pretend to go to war and then back down at the last moment over and over again: this wears down the opponent and lures him into complacency until one day you actually strike. Think of it as a variation on the “crying wolf” strategy if you want: one in which the wolf does the crying. The Ukrainians have been doing that for years now (how many times have we all heard that a Ukrainian attack was “imminent”?). The problem here is that this time around the war preparations are larger (and far more costly). However, you can be certain that the Russians have been on full alert also for years and that they now permanently have more than enough forces available to deal with any Ukie attack, ranging from cross-border small arms fire to a full scale war.
So we can all hope that, once again, the Ukronazis are playing their “crying wolf” strategy only to back down at the last second. But hope should always remain separate from expectations and to make the assumption that this time around they won’t actually attack would be extremely foolish.
There are those who say that Poroshenko is not dumb enough to start war against Russia. My question to them would be: do you really think that Poroshenko is smarter than, say, the various Latin Popes, Napoleon or Hitler? To me, he looks about as stupid and clueless (not to mention evil and absolutely immoral) as Saakashvili. Now just remember what happened in 08.08.08.
You might wonder whether the USA would be interested in a major war in the Ukraine. I have been saying for years now that the Neocon wet dream is to force Russia to openly intervene and that in order to achieve this result all the Ukronazis need to do is to seriously threaten the DNR and LNR. Will the Novorussians be strong enough to beat back a Ukronazi attack without overt Russian intervention? Maybe. Probably. But that is also not an assumption which we can make because the Novorussians have no strategic depth which places them in the very vulnerable position to have to stop the attackers without trading space for time. In plain English that means that the Novorussians have to be more or less on constant alert and that their forces must be forward deployed, which is very hard to sustain over time and simply dangerous, especially against an enemy with numerically much larger forces.
Crucially, the Neocons have nothing to lose if their plan fails and the Novorussians succeed in, once again, stopping the Ukronazi forces without a Russian intervention (it’s not like the Neocons care about Ukrainian or Novorussian lives since they don’t even care about the lives of US citizens).
It might well be that Trump is personally not interested in such a war. But, let’s face it, Trump is the worst overcooked noodle to sit in the White House (he makes Carter look like a roaring lion!). Just hours after he declared that it was “a very good time to have the meeting” with Putin he then “was changed his mind” and now has canceled the meeting. Trump is all about narcissistic hot air, but he never delivers anything and he has bowed down to his Neocon masters on everything since he made it into the White House. The sad truth is that Trump has become simply irrelevant, at least to the Russians (and to those who might still believe that Trump is playing some 4D chess I would say that systematically caving in to all the demands of the Neocons (and thereby making them increasingly more influential) is hardly a chess strategy, not even a 2D one).
[Sidebar: Trumps latest zig-zags about meeting with Putin is yet another example of the glaring ignorance the current US leaders suffer from. They simply have no idea what the function and purpose of diplomacy is. Dmitri Trenin, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, was absolutely correct when he tweeted today that “Meeting a US President is not a reward for a RUS leader. Canceling a mtg is no punishment. It is all a matter of necessity. RUS-US relationship today is solely about preventing the confrontation from turning into a collision, and escalating to war. This is all“. But the Americans are simply to illiterate to understand that. Besides, the Russians have long given up on any notion of being able to get anything done with this Neocon-doormat President. He wants to meet? Sure. He don’t. Who cares? This is the sorry state to which a nuclear superpower has slouched to.]
Ditto for his moronic VP who tried to scare Putin by “staring him down” with his rendition of what he hopes was a “steel glare” in Singapore. Putin just kept smiling, of course.
The frightening reality is that the Neocons are the most rabid russophobes on the planet and that the clowns in the White House will do whatever the US deep state tells them to do. Don’t count on them for decency or even minimal common sense.
Furthermore, as I have already said many times, Trump is an “expendable President” for the Neocons: should anything he does end in disaster, they will blame it all on him, and put their own trusted person in power to replace it.
For all these reasons, the answer to our question is obvious: yes, Poroshenko most definitely is capable of ordering some kind of crazy attack, including a full scale war.
But “could” does not mean “will”, thank God! Maybe, just like this past summer, the junta will get cold feet and back down (Putin’s threat that any attack will have most serious consequences for the Ukrainian statehood is still very much valid). In theory the spineless Europeans (who will suffer the economic and social consequences of any major conflict) might also tell the crazies in Kiev to cool it. But I am not holding my breath here.
So let’s hope for the best, but keep in mind that the worst is a very real possibility.
Conclusion: it is next to impossible to prevent a “suicide by cop” – but maybe God will!
Right now the situation is extremely dangerous and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Philosophers say that love is the greatest force in the universe, and I very much agree with that. But the next two most powerful forces are evil and stupidity, and there is plenty of both in Kiev and Washington DC. The incident with the “covert operation” of the “Ukrainian armada” might look funny until you recall all the wars which were stared over other such equally minor incidents. This time around the superb restraint of the Russian border guards prevented Kiev from getting the bloody clash it was obviously hoping for, but ask any policeman and he will tell you that it is almost impossible to prevent what is known as “suicide by cop”. The Empire badly needs the Russian cop to (finally!) shoot, and so does the Ukronazi junta (all this propaganda, including from Russian pseudo-patriots, about Putin being weak or indecisive or even in cahoots with the Empire is a direct PSYOP product of that imperial agenda, whether those who parrot that nonsense realize it or not).
At this point in time, there is no way to predict whether the Ukronazi junta will attack for real or not. So, as I have done several times in the past, I will conclude with this passage from the Quran: “and they (disbelievers) plotted [to kill ‘Iesa (Jesus)], and Allah planned too. And Allah is the Best of the planners” (verse 54 of Chapter 3 “Surah Al-‘Imran”); other translations say “And the unbelievers schemed [against Jesus]; but God brought their scheming to nought: for God is above all schemers” and “And (the unbelievers) plotted and planned, and Allah too planned, and the best of planners is Allah“. At a time when the Neocons are trying to convince the planet that Islam, not them, is the biggest danger to our planet, it is good to show them that not everybody is drinking their cool-aid; besides, in this case the Quran is simply right: God is the best of planners and the Ukronazi disbelievers (and their Neocon bosses) will eventually find this out, probably the hard way.
Saker, magnificent piece tonight! An article that traverses the length and breadth of Ukraine, the geopolitics of the Hegemon, the social sickness of the Maidan that instantly morphed into naziism and the reality of military probes by amateurs against professionals.
This is a primer on the 27 years of State Dept, CIA and Pentagon/NATO exploitation of a republic that tried to be a country. Just using the last four days events, you tell the whole history of post-91 Ukraine’s self-immolation.
I hope this article is replicated world wide and translated into a hundred languages.
Most importantly, I hope the dolts in DC read it. They have poked the bear far too many times.
Larch, The “dolts in DC” will read it.
Saker, excellent piece.Also, I was wondering about the situation being so bad in Ekraine that they can’t use any digging equipment and have to resort to orphans. This is so WWII. It takes forever and in no way as good as dug by machines.
The underling ‘dolts’ in DC who collect intelligence will read it. However, since American intelligence has been horribly politicized since Cheney, whether it gets passed along up the chain-of-dolts to the higher level dolts depends entirely on the perception of whether the higher level dolts want to hear this If the managers of the intelligence collecting dolts perceive that the higher level dolts want to hear this, then it will be included prominently in the reports that go up the chain-of-dolts. However, if the perception is that the higher level dolts do not want to hear this, then it will be buried.
Excellent article, as always from the Saker. However, I would like to add that in the past few months Poroshenko has been selling his assets in Ukraine. This is proof that he has realized that the game is up and that there is no way he can win the upcoming Presidential elections. He is preparing to flee, having US citizenship (remarkable for a President of a “sovereign” state). So, why the provocation in the Kirch, when three small, old ships were sent, obviously to be sacrificed ? There is no way that Poroshenko could have done this without NATO’s approval. The intent was not so much to introduce martial law and cancel the elections, as it was to provoke a military conflict with Russia. And yes, it was done in a very sloppy way. Is a Ukrainian attack against the Donbass possible ? It is indeed. However, even NATO must know what the repercussions would be, namely a Maidan in reverse. The crews of those three Ukrainain ships surrendered. Would the ukrainian Army do any better in a real conflict ? I think not. The whole country is demorilized, and the morale of the Ukrainain Army cannot be any better. As I have written before, Maidan of 2014 was a very foolish acT by the West, having started a chain reaction which cannot be stopped. Ukraine is facing a financial crash, after which a geographic breakup of the country into three parts is very much possible. Porosheno, as a puppet, will do as told. NATO will decide if he will attack or not. However, NATO must be aware of the consequences, and no doubt it is now analyzing what to do.
Couple small items. The two tiny river boats are ‘new’ by orc standards, built in the last half decade. They were supposedly designed for Dnepr River patrols but are not even adequate for that task, ludicrously wet in any swell higher than half a meter and ‘armored’ they ain’t, witness the round that went through the port side cabin of 175 and proved the little ‘floating tank’ is plastic. The tug is not ancient but certainly no spring chicken, minimum 40 years old.
However, in my humble opinion this little task force accomplished it’s main goal on orders from Foggy Bottom and that was to scotch any meeting, however fleeting, between President Putin and President Trump in Argentina. As far as that is concerned, the operation was a resounding success.
Concerning an attack on Novorossiya, not a chance of any success for the orcs, NAF can take care of themselves no matter what the orcs may pull. The only fly in that ointment is will they be allowed to at least take all of Novorossiya lands, IOW the rest of Donetsk and Lughansk lands if they are forced to attack the orcs.
Auslander, friend, you always bring to us ‘facts’ that are most relevant and a POV that is spot on.
Clearly, the US ‘masters’ engineered the event. Porky had the need for something, and the CIA provided it. When the CIA does military (land, air, naval or coups), the operation has a 90% probability of failure. As we can see this operation eclipsed the odds by a wide margin–while succeeding for Porky.
Larchmonter, we actually make a good team. You look at events and happenings from a wider angle than I do and you go deeper in to the political and economic repercussions more than I do.
I look at the nuts and bolts and not being terribly well educated, I see things in a simpler light, for instance that photo you and I were dissecting a couple days ago. You saw the overall image and what the soldier was purported to be, I saw the lack of boots on the soldier, hence dating the image as false and from a different time frame. Most other posters at a different venue saw the hole in #175 as evidence that Mother actually did fire on the canoes, I mentioned that the 30 mm hole in an ‘armored’ river boat showed the little death trap was plastic.
El Puerco got what he needed, martial law, and Foggy Bottom got what they desired, no formal meeting between the presidents of the two most powerful countries on this rock hurtling through the void.
Well said, Auslander. I’ve also a small item. I’m starting to think “the Democrats are trying to overthrow Trump by hook or by crook” is an incredible charade (psy-op).
Quite the contrary, the Anglo-American ‘elites’ aka Rotschild/Roggenfeder & Co. (Roggenfeder means rye straw in German, by the way), Hillary, György Schwartz, and so forth, are actually merely, albeit indirectly, promoting Trump by demonizing him.
After giving Trump the benefit of the doubt – how were we supposed to know (U-turn) Trump so well? – I’m back at my first impression of Trump as nothing but a half-baked Hitler (i.e. a Rockefeller Hitman).
I reckon the ‘elites’ for a long time – from about the 1953 coup d’états and the dismantling of Marxism-Leninism and the Soviet Union until Obama – thought they’d won, or that they surely would win by subversion.
Except they didn’t win (Xi’s China, Iranian Islamic Socialism, Putin’s Russia). So, in a desperate bid to turn the tide (go back to the 50s, so to speak), the ‘elites’ came up with Trump. (also e.g. Bolsonaro, bin Sawman, Macri)
Laika, do you think people know who “György Schwartz” is? Maybe some. Well, if I may, it’s George Soros, after he changed his name.
In the context of this discussion it really doesn’t matter, but assuming that was a 30mm hit it very well could have been armor plate designed to stop 7.62mm AP. Highly doubt it’s plastic or fiberglass, that would have left a half meter more or less circular hole. 30mm makes REALLY big holes in soft targets.
A short article on http://www.voltairenet.org/article204171.html says this “op” was planned by Kurt Volker.
I was not aware that he was formerly CIA but then went into foreign service. He did have strong links with mccain so he comes with strong neocon warmongering instincts (why else would he be in his current post).
His heavily edited wiki profile is clear that he has no military/naval experience; he does have the cia taint, which as Larch notes, pretty much guarantees that this op would turn out to be the flustercluck it turned out to be:
So what If trump and Putin meet? it is not like trump can make any independent decisions. Creating dangerous international incidents seems like overkill. But then again who knows.
Given the petite armada was potentially on a suicide mission, and the sailors would have known that – its takes a certain kind of bravery/stupidity to accept such a mission. There are reports that one sailor refused an order to fire on the Russians, and was shot by his officer.
What are the chances that the Ukie forces will obey an order to attack? They must also know it would be suicide. Is a coup more likely?
No one has mentioned this, but it looks like the Russians minimized damage by firing a dud shell to end the provocation. The hole in the bridge of the Berdyansk is far bigger than a 30mm shell, but … there seems to have been no explosion inside the ship, and the two sailors had relatively minor injures, compared to what one would expect from an exploding shell.
The Colonel Cassad blog has two photos: https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4606941.html
If the Russians understood Kiev’s game of provocation, then a dud shell would have given the Ukrainian sailors all they needed to surrender – before anyone got badly injured or killed. Score another one for Russia using minimal force to end an illegal act.
Is there a hole in my analysis ?
Nope they were duds. A 30 millimeter shel takes out a Abrahams if it hits the right place. It is a nasty thing that also aircraft can fire. These boats were armoured to take “small fire” which does not include 7.62 X 51 millimeters. Small fire is 5.56 which is meh on personnel shielded or with armour.
A 30 millimetre shel fro a high velocity cannon does wreck some havoc, Youtube it
Does it really? If the alternative is you’d be shot for refusing to accept the mission then taking the mission staves off death for a while and has a slightly greater chance of survival.
Just a thought, but arresting, charging, trying and punishing people for obeying orders they’d have be shot for disobeying seems a tad …. unjust – what are the chances that “arrest” is the simplest legal way not to return them because they don’t want to return? A real fear they will be executed if they are returned?
Well, Trump and Putin did talk in Argentina. That Ukie provocation in Kerch was not so much an attempt to prevent a Putin-Trump meeting as it was a provocation directed against Russia, with NATO hoping Russia would sink those three small ships and be accused og aggression. The Russian response was very professional.
And that quote from the Qur’an at the end of your composition is something that always gives me comfort. For I am a believer that feels these people will get their due on Judgement Day. By the way, have you read Tragedy and Hope 101 by Joseph Plummer? It sums up the book of the same book by Quigley, using the original 1966 version and seems to explain a lot of the US-UK Establishment and why things never change. Hope the Russians read all of it and take note that they will only persevere if they remember who they are facing and that their foe has neither morals nor law but only desire to rule all.
God is greatest…I agree.
But who here believes anything at all of Revelations.?
The Revelation 12 great sign appears to have been fulfilled and because some here are maybe atheist or Orthodox you appear to be somewhat out of the loop.
By the way Macron came to power with 60.06% of the vote and intends to rule like Jupiter and he has just created the EII (eii) which is a military block of 10 nations…Emmanuel he is not…but 10 kings yet to receive their kingdoms does seem Revelations-ish.!
On Macron above.
Personally I think on Macron the author has some interesting points though I think Gore will be his elder after Trump blows out
He sent clear Masonic messages on his election victory before the pyramid, with the red light on top and his arms in V. ‘I will sssserve you humbly…’
Many of his ministers are openly Freemasons. We all know who the freemasons work for.
Macron is toy-boy lab experiment groomed by Jacques Attali (very dangerous man à la BHL) and watched after by his French teacher
I know little about Freemasonry, but I think that what you suggest is certainly possible. We live in a dangerous world…
For 5 long years, the Ukraine failed in its core mission – ignite a war with Russia and bog her down in a costly (in both material and human losses) conflict. Russia skillfully parried all provocations designed to lure her into the trap. It recovered the Crimea, created two very effective pressure points – the DNR and the LNR, which led to the two worst humiliations for the VSU – the Debaltzevo and Illovaysk cauldrons, and now, the “Kerch” cauldron, which were planned to be huge victories for the Ukraine, but resulted in big material and reputational failures.
Poroshenko cannot win the coming elections. He cannot get a majority of the vote in order to win at the first round. If he makes it to the second round (at 10% and given the opponents, he should make it, haha), then it is almost certain that many people will vote in protest AGAINST him and for his opponent (no matter whoever she/he is) and he will lose the second round.
2019 is the year in which the Ukraine’s turning into a basketcase will finally begin to develop with higher speed. Huge loan payments, impossible demands by the IMF, much higher costs of everything for the ordinary citizen. And the cherry on top – the ending of the gas transit contracts with Gazprom at the end of the year. When Nord stream 2 comes online (should be by that time) and the two pipes of Turkstream bypass the Ukraine, this means that the Ukraine will be left with 30-40% (or less or none) of the 3-4 billion USD of gas transit income. And if Gazprom and Neftogaz do not reach an agreement, which looks very likely in the current situation, then Gazprom can easily call force majeur and end all transit.
So, it is now or never for Poroshenko to stuff up on a bunch of neckties and finally provoke Russia into war. There are numerous suitable occasions now – the church independence stuff, the Kerch provocation, the Donbass etc. The most probable is the start of church confiscations, which carry the highest emotional and religious charge. But yet again the Kremlin will prove that it is not of the feign-hearted and will not bite the bait. The Ukraine may easily fall into a civil war and finally fully discredit itself and its leadership. The only event that may move the Russians to intervene is a threat to the Ukie nuclear power stations, which Kiev may try to use as the weapon of last resort.
If you are familiar with the history of the region, you may know that through most of Russian history until the 18th century, the region north of the Crimea was called “dikie polya” or the “Wild lands”. The Ukraine’s name means “borderlands” and is also tied to this notion. In the next months and years, we may see it returning to its roots.
Yes, in fact, when one knows the history of the land we now call Ukraine (or, rather, Ukraina), little of what is going on now is surprising. The only new element is the involvement of a far away country that simply did not exist back then. Ukrainians are not bad people, but the region has certainly been pulled in so many directions over the centuries that it is hard to know what is what.
Aha- so now it is “Gott mit uns” is it?
Which god you may well ask….. as there are many and they are not one and the same.
They all play from different books ….
And any pantheon always includes at least one “trickster” god.
There is a sense of things speeding up in ukropistan, presidential elections, Nordstream and Turkstream to be turned on next year, etc and what the ukrops & friends could see as a window for opportunity is narrowing by the day
Fine article. I wholeheartedly agree with the assessment of “suicide by cop” as the underlying motivation.
Minor quibble: shouldn’t the Crimea be depicted in a colour key different from the other areas subject to the martial law decree? Or is it indicative of Kiev’s failure to face facts, like some Medieval English monarch styled as King of France centuries after that ship had sailed, by extending the decree to Crimea?
No man knows the day nor the hour and there is only one time throughout a whole year that such circumstances can be and that time is Hanukkah…the new year starts when two witnesses see the new moon…until it is seen the old year continues…weather may delay it…this year it falls on approximately the 10th of December.
Trump has been feted as the return of Cyrus the Great…with all that portends for the Parthians (Iran). A half silver shekel has been struck by the Sanhedrin in his honor…a red heifer has been born in Israel.
These are eschatalogical matters and have immense bearing on the situation surrounding everything those that publish on this website attempt to analyse.
Trump is being fitted up to play out the role of the King of the South from Daniel 8. He is the watchman elected with a message of warning which he abandons…he is the ruler of the nation of rebels…he believes himself better than everyone else…and the US has placed it’s tents (accommodation facilities) between the holy mountain and the sea.
The descendent of the greek shaggy goat is none other than Russia…the Greek shaggy goat came after Rome…it was killed off but it’s force regret as Russian orthodoxy…and orthodoxy fell under the USSR…but the horn regret again with the modern free Russia…and it will defeat the King of the South in the battle about to ignite despite the seeming lack of rationality in such a scenario.
Regrew not regret…in both instanced…sorry it’s my phone and failing eyesight…
My studied anonymous friend, I admire and respect your research but would like to point out that in the original Hebrew, the King of the South is the King of the “Negev”. It is Israel. The King of the South “will engage with” the Beast, while the King of the North will “storm out against” the Beast. The Beast Kingdom with it’s world wide hegemony for seventy years is the United States of America, a.k.a. End Time Babylon which is destroyed in one hour. The two horned beast who looks like a lamb but lies like the devil and fools even the very elect is Trump, “the last Trump”.
[Folk are asked to get back on topic and take any further discussion along this line to the MFC. Thank you. The Mod.]
Serious blunder “Don’t expect Iulia Timoshenko to show any mercy either; not after Petro stuck her in jail.”
Tymoshenko co-led the Orange Revolution and was the first woman appointed Prime Minister of Ukraine, serving from 24 January to 8 September 2005, and again from 18 December 2007 to 4 March 2010. She placed third in Forbes magazine’s list of the world’s most powerful women in 2005.
She finished second in the Ukrainian presidential election of 2010 runoff, losing by 3.5 percentage points to the winner, Viktor Yanukovych.
After the 2010 presidential election, a number of criminal cases were brought against her. In 2011, she was convicted of embezzlement and abuse of power, and sentenced to seven years in prison. The prosecution and conviction were viewed as politically biased by many western governments. She was released in 2014, in the concluding days of the Euromaidan revolution, and then rehabilitated. In the 2014 Ukrainian presidential election, she received 12.8% of the vote, coming in second place after Petro Poroshenko who won the election.
Since it isn’t an article used for a Ph.D thesis, Saker is forgiven for a slip in dates of the Ukie “Joan of Arc” imprisonment and who held the reins of government that put her in jail (though she was in hospital most of the time which you didn’t mention. Serious blunder?).
Not a blunder, just an error under time constraints for Saker to write and deliver on schedule to Unz.
Andrei, all is forgiven . . .
Larchmonter, there are many things I love, the smell of coffee at 05:00 for me first cuppa, the delicate foot pads of Sophia and Ye’katarina coming up the steps at 05:01 to my office knowing full well they will get their morning oatmeal cookie before they continue their slumbers, the deafening silence in this little valley at dawn, the gentle perfume of the last roses before the cold comes, the sound of the 5 kilo maul in your hand as you nail another one to a cross. Well said, my friend, well said.
I know why I confused them Ukie Presidents: I hate Yanukovich as much as I hate Poroshenko, so in my exhausted mind they must have fused into a Yanushenko/Porokovich villain :-)
Emotions, especially hatred, is the worst adviser – a basic spiritual and intellectual truth. It makes a great difference whether Tymochenko was put to jail by Yanukovich and not by Poroshenko as the Saker wrongly claims. She was the darling of the west at that time and they accused the former of being a dictator. This attitude contributed largely to Yanukovich being ousted from power and the beginning of the current bleak situation in Ukraine.
As Tymochenko is the female pendant to Poroshenko – equally dishonest and corrupt as him – and has real chances to win the elections, it matters a lot. She will not go after Poroshenko and his followers but will treat equally cruelly the few remaining supporters of the former president, who happen to be in Novorussia. Therefore this blunder seriously distorts both the perspective of this article and its conclusions, which are, however, wrong for reasons outside this particular narrow discussion and are rather associated with the overarching agnostic Weltanschuung of the author who systematically misses the point, “who is really in charge of this planet”:
LOL! yes, that is one big stinky brain-fart on my part.
I will blame it on my insomnia
Thanks for pointing this out!
It’s none of my business. I live on the other side of the planet. Just as it’s none of America’s business. But my hopes are on Iulia winning the election, opening her eyes, and realizing that the Empire, not Russia, has destroyed Ukraine. Let her play pro-America till the election to avoid a CIA assassination, but then realize that the “Ukrainian independence” talk is nonsense, that the USA will never allow Ukrainian independence, that it destroyed Libya (to name just one) because of the unacceptability to it if Libyan independence.
“Philosophers say that love is the greatest force in the universe”. Actually fear is the greatest force, which is what enables rulers of all sorts to subjugate their populations. Only in the most extreme circumstances does desperation overcome fear. Soldiers charge machine guns only because the probability of being killed by the enemy is counterposed to the certainly of being shot by their own officers if they don’t. There are, of course, exceptions which are covered by the saying “There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold, pilots”.
Four years of cringing servitude before the Nazi Oligarch overlords running Ukraine shows most people would rather be live slaves than dead freedom fighters even as their world collapses around them. It is true of any people or country, as Herman Goering pointed out shortly before cheating the hangman at Nuremberg.
True as far as that goes, Terry.
However, “most people” are only along for a short, fearful ride….and don’t make any history of any account, any way. And those that rule “most people” strictly and only by manipulating your purported “greatest force” don’t make any history of ANY positive import….EVER.
So, Big Fing (Fearing) Deal, “Fear”! How “great” is that illusion?? Not very, IMHO.
People who realize this and whose love overcomes their fears, and WILL DIE ruefully but happily rather than submit to evil…and lose all significance of their ever having lived..and by example inspire a few of some of the more timid, less resolute ones around them, that behold that miracle…… make an enormously significant share of the positive history that is the only thing that contributes meaningfully to any prospects for the assured continuation of the human species.
It is not required to be physically martyred or murdered to make such a positive contribution. However, preparation to make that sacrifice if necessary is something of a prerequisite.
In order to not die a million deaths psychologically, and live on in any sense longer than one’s biological span of life, one must face their own mortality head on and realize that physically we are all “already dead”…i.e dieing physically….it’s just a matter of a very finite number of days or hours that we have remaining………..and that what counts infinitely more than the success of delaying our time in a doomed wish to never die…… is maximizing the meaning of our having lived at all.
There are many examples of such exceptions to the Cowards That Die A Million Deaths that earned fame and recognition and the love of humanity ….and many, many more that almost no one knows the names of, except for a very few that spiritually felt their love and were made more by it.
If it weren’t for their love, I think one could argue fairly successfully that Human Civilization (such as it is) and ourselves (such as we are!) would not even exist with the glorious, loving opportunity to add something of lasting worth to Human Civilization, to the extent of our ability to overcome fear….and to love….which is all we have of any truly lasting Worth…and Reality.
Thank you so much Bro 93 for these profound and beautiful thoughts.
“Perfect Love casts out fear.” 1 John 4:18 Fear is only weakness. Love is strength.
Love IS the greatest force in our Universe.
Theologians and scholars here will inform us just how many times Jesus Christ exhorted his flock to ‘be not afraid’.
He healed, taught and performed miracles – and we can do the same- in the name of The Father The Son and The Holy Spirit.
Now that is Power ✨✨✨
A very thorough and clear piece, Saker, my congrats.
But I cannot believe that you actually believe that “the fact that [the Ukrainians] could even imagine that three old boats could somehow sneak around the Crimean Peninsula and then covertly pass under the Kerch bridge is just amazing”. C’mon. They perfectly know they couldn’t succeed. Probably they only hoped in a more aggressive Russian reaction, as you seem to point out later in the article.
Apart from that, and apart from the fact that Allah/God is a pure human invention, let’s just hope that the sentence stating he is “the best of planners” is false, otherwise if this real world is the best he can do… we are all f’ed up.
Sorry Gab despite your atheism the folks who have their fingers on the nuclear triggers including the way way more than 200 Israel has are driven by eschatalogical considerations. So thanks for the wet blanket but no thanks.)))
What is the purpose of life in this temporal and temporary World?
Allah/God Most High addresses this fundamental question in verses 1-2 of Chapter 67 of the Qur’an. Herewith, an English translation of these verses:
“Blessed is He in whose hands is the Kingdom and who has power over all things.
[He] Who hath created death and life that He may test you which of you is best in conduct; and He is the Mighty, the Forgiving”.
As is evident in the above verses, the purpose of this earthly existence is to serve as a test of character. Allah Most High has afforded us free will – the ability to choose an endeavoring of good or evil. So does it make sense to blame Allah for our shortcomings and the corruption and evil that manifests in the land and sea due to our decision to endeavour in misguided ways? We only have our selves to blame!
Some ideas of God/Allah are human inventions, but beyond those lies something immense and real and beautiful…..
One of your best Saker. Thank you.
I truly would despair, but following the ‘Q anon’ phenomenon in some depth has led me to have some hope that Trump is backed by anti-neocon DIA team probably including LtGen Michael Flynn. This might have been what Catherine Austin-Fitts Wass alluding to in her holding out hope there are forces of intelligence and good sense in the US system.
The reason Trump plays the buffoon might not be that he is, but it is to play for time while the ‘white hats’ in the US military and DIA manoeuvre in the background against a deeply embedded criminal cabal.
As scores of Trump tweets echo Q’s posts of moments earlier (right down to spelling errors) it gives me (and judging by internet traffic a few million and increasing others) hope that the undoubtedly narcissistic billionaire (though unlike most puppet leaders – not a psychopath) is indeed playing ‘4-D chess’ at the direction of military intel advisers. DIA Advisers who according to Q, have only utter disdain for the CIA as agents (‘clowns’ in Q parlance) of the Rothschilds, Rockerfellers et al.
Do readers recall about a year ago that 3 high ranking Russian military intel officers visited the Pentagon to meet with their DIA counterparts? What did Putin mean when (after their 1:1 unrecorded meeting in Helsinki) he handed Trump the soccer ball with the embedded chip saying ‘the ball is now in your court’?
All the balls at the Worry ld Cup were fitted by their American manufacturer with the same model and type of chip. Nothing special about the ball. Whatsoever.
The Q stuff is a crock of brown things. A distraction of no relevance. Zionism approaches it apotheosis. Q is meant to prevent clear thinking. A cruel joke.
The ball with chip was most likely symbolic of intel discussed and transferred. Putin’s comment would be a way of trolling the globalist deep state Cabal.
Let’s bring the right context on this piece Peter from Oz.
“This might have been what Catherine Austin-Fitts Wass alluding to in her holding out hope there are forces of intelligence and good sense in the US system. ”
Not at all. CAF is clear in that Q and the phenomenon is Hope Porn.
There is no proof that the football had an embedded chip. That is made up Hope Porn.
There is no serious analyst anywhere that gives any credence to the Q phenomenon . not that it is not real, but that it is Hope Porn.
Amarynth, you describe ‘Q’ as ‘Hope porn’ – so you think that all the intelligent capable personnel in the Western military and intelligence agencies simply follow orders – including the many with normal good conscience – when they can see better than you or I or any of us civilian citizens the evil machinations of the Empire and the lies of its mainstream propaganda media?
Is such blanket pessimism rational?
‘Q’ represents, as Trump said at a recent rally albeit without directly mentioning Q though many in his audience took it that way, a way of circumventing the media to go direct to the people.
Even during Nazi Germany there was enough rational sane officers to launch a near successful assassination attempt on Hitler. Similar rational actors in US and other Western agencies have had decades (at least since the obvious Deep State killing of JFK) to plan for a restitution of constitutional order.
I was unaware CAF has publicly dismissed ‘Q’. Where? And probably more significantly when (as the credibility of ‘Q’ has increased markedly over time)? In the early days yes I too thought it probably false hope – a LARP.
I’ve heard CAF talk of a global battle within all countries “between the lawless and the lawful”. The ‘Q’ narrative fits that.
The mainstream media propaganda has put out a few 100 hit smear pieces on the “wacky QAnon conspiracy”. Reading those and reading Q directly makes it obvious that the corporate media falsely portrays the Q posts and the pieces are designed to raise the usual ridicule and opprobrium factors that they used on JFK researchers and still use on 9/11 researchers.
Many “serious analysts” as you call them, even good people in the alternative media are still cowed by such mainstream propaganda smears, and won’t publicly touch the obvious absurdity of the official narrative on 9/11.
Amarynth, I’d ask you and other readers here to do your own research on Q. Read the posts collated at http://www.qmap.pub . There’s plenty of ‘Q analysts’ and some are pretty amateur to be sure. But better ones on YouTube are ‘IPOT – in pursuit of truth’ , ‘X22report’ and an older Aussie bloke ‘stroppy me’ who was quite sceptical originally. In print there’s ‘neonrevolt‘ who has an introduction to the Q posts/phenomenon from a few months ago:
Q has been far too sophisticated to be a LARP (hoax). Multiple original photos (at least viewable nowhere else online) of Trump on Air Force 1, scores of posts copied moments or minutes later in a Trump tweet often with identical deliberate spelling errors oftentimes symbolic, Flynn’s signing books with the Q slogan “WWG1WGA” – pretty amazing really.
So the theory it is just a hoax doesn’t add up.
Jiri, If as alternative media journalists like Caitlin Johnstone say, Q is a Deep State psy-op as is Trump – both in order to disarm the antiwar/anti-interventionist right wing voters (now the left has been completely neutered in gender and identity politics, pardon the pun) – that may be the case.
But such a theory doesn’t take into account the content of Q posts that have woken up many to the criminality of the corporatocracy, the posts are in fact antiwar, they are pro Putin to the extent he’s mentioned. Such a theory smacks of ‘fear porn’.
At the least it is a growing phenomenon and worth attention just for that reason. Time will tell if it represents more hope or fear.
I am not suggesting that it is a hoax. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. Just that I do not find it very useful since I find it too complicated and requires time and effort which I would rather spend elsewhere.
Q has been totally wrong on a lot of things. I recall when Q claimed that Hillary and others were already wearing GPS tracker ankle bracelets. That some were already detained and held in Gitmo.
That Jeff Sessions was working behind the scenes to organize mass arrests of key cabal persons, hence the large number of sealed indictments.
That in the helicopter crash at(in reality it wasn’t on but near the former RS property) a Rothschild estate (which it hadn’t been for the last couple of decades) high level cabbalists had been killed, not by accident.
Also Q seems to be OK with going after Iran.
IMO Q is nothing more then a psy-op designed to pull in the audience that doesn’t consume MSM propaganda. People that might watch/read/listen to Infowars. And designed with the intended effect to give it’s followers the believe that good people are operating in a concerted effort, behind the scenes, to oust the evil people in power and make sure the system is run serving the common/public and national interests.
My suspicion is that the ‘Q’ phenomenon is simply a tool to keep the believers to keep believing.
The US objectives have not changed- it wants full spectrum dominance. Some want to achieve with a lot of force, others want to achieve with a little less force.
I would not place my hopes on either side.
The only way out that I can see is for the US to have its “Suez moment” which will hopefully lead to a peaceful/low violence dismantling of the Empire.
1956 Suez, Eisenhower moment or 1973, Yom Kippur Egyptian moment?
Interesting, both were October events, though ’56 continued into ’57.
One was the shock of Ike/USA not joining the Brits/West. The other was the shock of Egypt breeching the defenses of Israel.
Aside from your alluding to such a moment will lead to dismantling of the Empire, how would that happen, why would that happen?
At the minimum, the anchored footings of the Empire are like the anchor foundations of skyscrapers in NYC. They are tied down into the granite very deep under the “basement”. It is economic, cultural, military and psychological. The Empire is 100 years old and showing no signs of being dismantled.
It may face a rival from Eurasia in the next 30 years. It may face reforms forced by multi-polarity. But this Empire of the Hegemon has pillars in all continents and dominates all oceans, while outpacing most nations in Space, also. Without a realistic assessment of its strengths, its weaknesses cannot be judged correctly.
In fact, predictions of the collapse of the disastrous Ukraine entity has not occurred and will not happen. The stakeholders will pump in just enough billions to keep hold of the 404 for as long as no military shatters the Ukie puppet regime. Ukraine’s economy is growing, though the lives of its people are worsening. Think about that when “collapse” and “dismantling” are predictions proffered.
The US action re Suez was to end any UK influence east of Suez. It worked.
Similarly, the US intervention in WW2 was explicitly designed to end the British Empire – a condition of US entry was that Britain relinquish it colonies (India etc). The US war loans to Britain (essentially rusty old ships) were required to be repaid in full, plus interest, after the war – this beggaring Britain. Whereas Germany and Japan were rebuilt with US aid.
Its a fallacy to believe that the US is Britain’s ally. In reality, Britain is the US’s poodle.
“Aside from your alluding to such a moment will lead to dismantling of the Empire, how would that happen, why would that happen?”
Empire is largely in the mind, plus of course the ability and willingness to use force. The British in India had only a few tens of thousands of British people in India and yet they controlled a population of millions. This was because people in India accepted the British as their rulers and adopted the British way as being superior- simply because they were the rulers. The British got to define what was right and wrong, just and unjust, proper or improper and so on. Once people in India abandoned the idea that the British were entitled to be the rulers, British rule became untenable and it rapidly collapsed.
Similarly with the US (and allies)- At the moment the US gets to define for the world all the key concepts that enable to maintain the Empire- governance, human rights, financial management, trade, intellectual property, currency etc. etc. And naturally the US will define these things in a manner that advantages the US.
However, in all these areas the grip of the Empire is slipping. The “Suez moment” need not necessarily be military, although that would be the most dramatic and clear. It will be also in the diplomatic, economic, political, trade, culture, education, etc. These may happen slowly and not be as dramatic as a military “Suez moment”. For example, dollar hegemony- it is slowly being eroded as more and more of international trade is bypassing the USD. Or take diplomacy- the US is not easily getting its way in Syria, Ukraine, South China Sea, etc.
The danger is that one faction in the US might decide to destroy most of the planet just to maintain its superior position. The scene in Dr. Strangelove where the general is advising the US President that he should go for all out nuclear war because even if the US lost millions of people it would still have 30 million more survivors than the Russians is not just fantasy but a significant portion of the US establishment.
Sober thoughts. Much needed.
I wouldn’t read too deeply into the meaning of “the ball is now in your court.” I suspect that President Putin was just sticking it to Pompeo who made the following punkish remark earlier:
“In #Finland tonight. Monday, @POTUS & I will meet with our Russian counterparts in #Helsinki A better relationship with the Russian government would benefit all, but the ball is in Russia’s court. We will continue to hold Russia responsible for its malign activities @StateDept” https://twitter.com/SecPompeo/status/1018608807612690432
Special thanks to RT for serving as an information repository.
In a nutshell: no good options for the Mafia in the Ukraine. Fortunately.
Seriously? here on the Saker the Crimea is shown on the map as part of the Ukraine? lol
Hey, dummy, this is the official *Ukrainian* map :-)
Saker, you say: ‘Timoshenko would be a much better agent for the Empire’. But, not for Russia, right? How her election would make matters even worth for Russia?
She never was good for Russia. Notice that she was Prime-minister before Yanukovich, and she gave Russians fair bit of trouble, as she sort of played “friend-foe” game. Yanukovich put her in prison, but then she played “sicko” and was released on the basis of bad health only to miraculously recover shortly after her release. I am guessing: releasing her was one of the EU’s conditions for negotiations before Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
Can she campaign for office with a criminal record? In many countries that would exclude her as a candidate…
Of course she can, if the boss says so.
Is this porkshank wagging the zpc/nwo to stay head quisling, or the zpc/nwo using their ukronazi pets as part of a larger strategy? One that just switched into a higher gear?
I think it is the latter. A cw attack in Syria, the Kerch toy boat caper, now massa israel conducted a new attack on Syria. Meanwhile the Russian MOD is saying more cw attacks are in planning in Syria to be blamed on the Syrian government to justify more aggression from israel’s pindo attack dog.
The zpc/nwo owns porkshank and his ukronazi opponents, which prevails makes little difference. They are all under orders.
The purpose of ukraine to the zpc/nwo is to provoke Russia and provide the zionazi-gay propaganda/psywar machine with material. They really don’t worry much which quisling in ukraine is doing this for them, just as long as the people there are kept down and submissive.
As for the neocons, they are the current nazis, israeli style. Useful tools providing the visible vanguard in zpc/nwo geopolitics. Considering the limits of neocons, use of this sewage reflects a serious degradation in zpc/nwo capability. Something they self created with their dumbing down strategy, which not just dumbed down their potential opposition, but their loyal operating pool, as well. Better stupid and loyal, than the independent thinking intelligence often leads to.
… Chocolates are associated with happiness and pleasure … good things
… and then a Willie-Wonka-Nazi Chocolate Maker comes along …
Russia many times has avoided all kind of provocations aimed to drag it in all kind of troubles. Probably I miss some information but what would have happened if the Ukrainan naval units had not been stopped? What the dangers and risks for Russia in not stopping these boats?
Sorry for the probably naive question.
PS: “not stopping” but of course strictly monitor and document precisely the intrusion.
With the multiple voices of officials in Kiev calling for the bombing of the Kerch Bridge, as they have called for and sent saboteurs into Crimea to bomb utilities and other critical infrastructure, it would be stupid to allow military vessels to proceed to the and under the bridge.
FSB probably had a heads up on what the mission was. Though the Ukies had no cell phones, other electronic signal gathering most likely indicated the intentions of the Ukies.
When defending your vital infrastructure, you prevent sabotage. That’s what any border patrols would do.
The Russians were in non-violent contact with the three vessels for an extended period, demanding the Ukies cease their mission.
Ultimately, minimum force was used.
Very professional, highly legal and exceedingly prudent.
After you think about what the Russians would do to Kiev if the Bridge was damaged or brought down, you will see they did the absolute minimum to the vessels and Ukies aboard.
Ukraine would cease to exist as a state if the Bridge is a casualty.
Thank you; so the alternative seem to be between “don’t stop the boats” and risk some sort of action against the bridge and “stop the boats” and fully get into the provocation and give the excuse for new already planned sanctions or retaliation. In any case I don’t think that this is only an ukrainan operation.
Russia doesn’t ever consider retaliations or sanctions for their actions. They do what they must do.
Take the heroics in the face of certain death, the pilot Filopov. He fought until out of ammo, then took a grenade and killed some ISIS with him as he exited this Earthly Paradise.
Russia is trying to save Ukraine from itself. It’s not working very well, but if the time and events come that break the Russian spirit to keep from destroying their neighbors (who they consider tens of millions of them brothers), then Ukraine will be a memory for the Europeans and Khazarians.
So, the Russians know consequences. (See Syria from Sept 2015 onward).
It was done quickly on the hoof in order to distract from the chemical weapon attack by western-controlled terrorists against civilians in Aleppo. Over 100 civilians were taken to hospital with breathing difficulties after being exposed to chlorine fumes from multiple chlorine-loaded mortar rounds.
Most insightful comment.
The others are in their usual circlejerk about Mother Russia and various ideological matters.
I also hate this insistence and glorification of military hardware and prowess.
The sad truth about the state of affairs on our planet is that most likely everything is the result of the inertia of masses and institutions (including the ultra-rich clans). If there was any higher ideal (if ever), we lost that when the fundamental crime of the colonization happened.
seams like all Russian males from 16 to 60 are banned from entering Ukraine now
that is not a good sign I guess
Big question #3: Would the Empire block all ships from Russia?
Merkel Ally Suggests Blockading Russian Ships From All EU And US Ports
Considering the ship Comet seized by the Ukraine is actually registered in Hamburg….I think there is some double standards!
What a great article title. It immediately brought to mind a picture from the Minsk II talks that so depicts this: https://ForeignPolicyMatters.com/loser
I don’t think Ukrainian boats were well armed at all. From the list of seized weapons, biggest gun was a 30mm, and the pile of 2000-odd 40mm grenades doesn’t reach over 400m or so. The rest of it were standard infantry weapons they could have used to resist boarding and that’s all. From the few pictures I’ve seen of Russian Coast Guard ships, they seem to be pretty sturdy and could have taken that kind of fire all day long. Kinda like an actual warship, and not a fibreglass sloop with “BOO!” painted on it.
As for Ukrainian “strategy” of surprise… well, Zapp Brannigan explains it best ;)
It might occur to them that they don’t really want people from Crimea or the east to be voting in their elections.
Excellent micro as well as macro analysis. Thanks Saker. The surprise attack, should the command be given from abroad , will be professionally planned and mostly carried out by forces being sent to Ukraine…. at least these professionals will be in the front lines at first. It will provoke a severe response because as you pointed out “the novorussians have no strategic depths”.
A few under armed tug boats doing a 3 Stooges Run Around is one bit of convenient political theater but a frontal attack on Donbass is Show time .Those S 400s moved closer say this is so big time. It took Putin just as he said in 2014 four years to become up to snuff militarily. And so it has come to pass.
Pence is the hard vote neocon sleeper President. And the cons will start a war if they feel that they need to do so in order to keep the American people firmly and quietly on board. Geez feels like the Luisitania maneuver is being brushed off and brought out of the archives . Sigh
Martial law applied to opposition MP Anatoly Gritsenko (brown jacket black hat, blond hair).
I agree ,I found this a very cogent analysis. The prospect of a “Russian invasion of Mariopol” is not farcical in the context of major escalation of aggression by the Kiev fascist regime against Donbass/Lugansk and/or (suicidally) against the RF. But in my opinion, in a sense it doesn’t matter. Sooner or later eastern “Ukraine” will be liberated one way or another. I suspect that is the root of what the Saker called “hysteria”: a subconscious sense that the eastern areas are gone, the question is: when?
If my late Senator McCain’s tumor hadn’t gotten the better of him, I could imagine him saying, “We’re all Ukrainians now.”
For a long time, but especially since the 9/11 attacks, many Arab translators of the Quran into English soft-pedal much of the language. For the verse referenced below, for example, Haleem translates wamakr as “schemers,” but the well-known Dawood translates it as “contriver,” and others make use of a number of similar, euphemistic terms.
So this paragraph (above) is inaccurate: “I will conclude with this passage from the Quran: “and they (disbelievers) plotted [to kill ‘Iesa (Jesus)], and Allah planned too. And Allah is the Best of the planners” (verse 54 of Chapter 3 “Surah Al-‘Imran”); other translations say “And the unbelievers schemed [against Jesus]; but God brought their scheming to nought: for God is above all schemers” and “And (the unbelievers) plotted and planned, and Allah too planned, and the best of planners is Allah“.
At Quran.com, although they quote the same Arabic root word “wamakar” when speaking of the unbelievers and also when speaking of Allah; they translate it as “schemed” when speaking of the unbelievers and as “planned” when speaking of Allah.
But the Koran uses the same word for what the unbelievers did and for what Allah did. And actually, according to Lane’s Arabic-English Lexicon, the accurate translation of the word wamakar is “to practice deceit, guile or circumvention, desiring to do another afoul, an abominable or evil action clandestinely or without his knowledge.”
So the Koran really says “Allah is the best of deceivers,” and throughout the Islamic texts, Muslims are directed to use taqiyya,” (Islamic deception) when dealing with us, the kaffirs (unbelievers.)
My mother tongue is Arabic and I would like to mention that the English language does not have the words that can explain many of the Arabic words , so the translators translate what they think not what God think. The advantage Muslims have and thank God for that that the Original word of the Quran in Arabic is there to go back to and all the translators can take a hike because the original is there for eternity. In the Arabic language the Quran had set the tone in meaning and grammar.
The Quran have called you – if you are Christian or a Jew- with a very respectful name as the people of the book. Kaffir to explain to you means is the one who tries to cover the truth or something you disbelieve in its truth. Two Muslims can be kaffereen because each one disbelieve with what the other believe in. The same way two warring parties can call each other a kaffir because they stand on the opposit side of the issue they are fighting over. A farmer is kaffir because he covers his seeds by the soil.
Muslims also are not directed to use taqiyya. No where in the Quran it is mentionning that and I challenge you to give me an aya that says that. Taqwa yes but taqiyya no and since I can tell that you know no Arabic please pay attention to how to distinguish between words. There is many stars and galaxies that separates taqwa and taggiya. Taqwa means to refrain from doing all what God forbids and to do all what he allows and taqiyya is to m be diplomatic in dispensing your opinion and do not be rude and disrespectful of others.
I refrain from calling God deceptive. All my life as an Arabic speaking never understood that makker means deception in this sentence. I always understood it as planning despit it’s other meanings because the word gets its meaning from the context of the sentence. I like you to know that we call a member of the family or community makkar when he does something good and unconventional.If you want to call God deceptive, and call your self kaffir I have no problem but please Inform yourself first about a world you know nothing except through false hateful media and translators who mean well but they have no patent on Islamic knowledge.
Thank you, Anonymous, for your informative linguistic analysis. BUT… a significant adjustment to bin Abdullah’s voices is that, possibly apart from some isolated Jewish settlements in Arabia, the Jews of his time were no longer a People of the Book. It had been already replaced by the Talmud, the written form of the Pharisaic “traditions” denounced by Jesus.
‘so the translators translate what they think not what God think.’
‘If you want to call God deceptive, and call your self kaffir I have no problem but please Inform yourself first about a world you know nothing except through false hateful media and translators ‘
Its mildly curious and certainly ironic to see someone criticising another for believing in false and hateful media and translators, yet firmly holding a stance showing total belief in false and often hateful translators masquerading as the word of God (which cannot be proven as anymore true than me saying a unicorn whispered in my ear).
Its the one issue I have with a fair amount of contributions on here – too much god talk without any/ much hint of accepting that the source of their faith is no more valuable to others than belief in santa claus. Which for me is the very opposite of intelligent and far removed from logical reasoning. Its kinda like Bush telling the world that God told him to invade the middle east…Who can say for sure otherwise eh?hohoho!
Jack, “Allah is the most subtle of schemers but He is not malicious”. — Einstein
Jack, For a long time, but especially since the 9/11 attacks, many Arab translators of the Quran into English soft-pedal much of the language.
Exactly how long the use of the musical term “soft pedal” has denoted obscuring, or blurring of meaning, or truth, who could say, but just to inform you, to tone down, to diminish, is to intensify, focus and highlight from a the trrue musicians perspective.
In the time of global elimination, annihilation, human unbiased instinct of survival will be said to be of God. If it is possible to undo the human damage of the planet, it will take us at least one thousand years of great care. Or, far longer. If ever.
For what it is worth…
My close chum, Irina, born in Ukraine but feels very much Russian and has no issue with any Ukranians who do not. She speaks straight with zero affectation. Like most Russians I have met…She spent 2 months in her motherland recently, travelled far and wide, and found no widespread nazi rule. No society teetering on the edge of collapse or war.
this doesn’t mean I contest everything that The Saker has written. I like his passion, and his intelligence, but I am too long in the fang to cast aside the first hand account of someone I am close to who knows that land, that people and who I have looked in the eye many times and never found nowt but her truth.
I don’t contest anything written in the article. I just wanted to put down a line or five to suggest that the closer you are to the source of something, the clearer view you might not be told, but you will feel…
Thank you for this wonderful analysis. What do you think of Sibel Edmond’s putting in the category of Gladio as part of a complex orchestration of events including what she thinks is the faux event of Khashoggi’s death?
It is just a game of N.W.O “In Route of Global Occupation”.
Are Luhansk and Donetsk “Separatist” able to deal with an about 400 Km front against an Ukraine Proxy army supported with unlimited capitals (Fiat Money).
How long Russia can support Assad regime confronting an Kurdish proxy army supported with unlimited capitals (Fiat Money).
The Kerch Strait provocations are, very carefully planned and executed events with the goal to engage Russia in a perpetual confrontation with the West, in another front.
While Ukraine is a vassal nation of NWO, Poroshenko is a puppet that can be replaced by another puppet as Gorbachev was replaced by Yelstin in the right moment, whom Buried the U.S.S.R and ordered Tanks of the Taman Division shelling the Russian White House on October 4, 1993.
The constitutional crisis of 1993 was a political stand-off between the Russian president Boris Yeltsin and the Russian parliament that was resolved by using military force.
September 21, 1993, when President Yeltsin aimed to dissolve the country’s legislature (the Congress of People’s Deputies and its Supreme Soviet), although the president did not have the power to dissolve the parliament according to the constitution. Yeltsin used the results of the referendum of April 1993 to justify his actions. In response, the parliament declared that the president’s decision was null and void, impeached Yeltsin and proclaimed vice president Aleksandr Rutskoy to be acting president.
The situation deteriorated at the beginning of October. On October 3, demonstrators removed police cordons around the parliament and, urged by their leaders, took over the Mayor’s offices and tried to storm the Ostankino television centre. The army, which had initially declared its neutrality, stormed the Supreme Soviet building in the early morning hours of October 4 by Yeltsin’s order, and arrested the leaders of the resistance.
The ten-day conflict became the deadliest single event of street fighting in Moscow’s history since the Russian Revolution. According to government estimates, 187 people were killed and 437 wounded, while estimates from non-governmental sources put the death toll at as high as 1,500.
On 31 December 1999, Yeltsin abdicated, leaving Putin Acting President. This position was very advantageous to Putin on the eve of the presidential election. On the same day, Putin signed a decree that guaranteed the immunity of Yeltsin and his family from prosecution and gave them material benefits.
Yeltsin immunity suggests a deal done with Putin
It is just a game. A game with Global Proportions.
As a result…from RT
“Russia is updating its navigation rules for a contingency involving another nation’s warships attempting to sail along the Northern Sea Route. Such a passage would require prior notification from the Defense Ministry.
The route, situated in the Arctic along Russia’s northern coast, is becoming more accessible to sea traffic as the climate warms. With longer navigation seasons and fewer ice hazards, Russia hopes the path will be increasingly in demand for international commercial transit. Such navigation however more often than not requires Russia’s cooperation, since an icebreaker usually is needed to pass through.
There is however a potential source of problems with Russia’s northern side becoming more accessible. Foreign military ships may travel it too, even those lacking ice protection, as was proven by the Loire-class offshore support and assistance ship of the French Navy Rhône in October. It took the ship 17 days to traverse the route and she didn’t ask for Russian icebreaker assistance for it.
Arctique: le passage Nord-Est franchi pour la première fois par la Marine. C’est le Rhône, Bâtiment de soutien et d’assistance hauturier (BSAH), basé à Brest, qui a franchi le détroit de Bering mi-septembre.https://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/bretagne/finistere/brest/arctique-passage-nord-est-franchi-premiere-fois-marine-1551014.html …
Starting next year, Russia will require military ships traveling through Russian Arctic to give prior notification to the Defense Ministry, according to Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev, the head of the National Defense Management Center. He said amendments to the rules of navigation will be adopted before next year’s Arctic navigation season starts, RIA Novosti reported.”
Reported by New Russia 1.12.2018 at https://vk.com/soutukraine
Translated to English
Ukraine has banned foreign journalists from visiting the Crimea and Donbass
Deputy Minister of Information Policy of Ukraine Dzhaparova announced the decision of the Ukrainian authorities to ban foreign journalists from visiting the territory of Crimea and Donbas. This decision is explained by the introduction of martial law in Ukraine. This is reported by the Ukrainian media.
“With an international audience, the question arises, is that all foreign citizens are prohibited from entering the occupied territories, among them there are journalists. For them, a simplified procedure for entry into the occupied territories. On the one hand, we understand that journalists are a separate category in whose activities we are interested, ”Dzhaparova said.
The Ukrainian official asked “with understanding” to take this decision, and also expressed the hope that this situation will not cause any consequences in covering the events in Ukraine.
Earlier it was reported that Ukraine has closed the entrance to the country for male Russians. This was announced by the head of the State Border Service of Ukraine Cigikal at a meeting with Poroshenko.
Some of you may still remember the Russian elections of 1996, when Yeltsin, with abysmal approval ratings (at some point I think 2%) managed to be rescued by a combination of foreign-funded forces and pulled a “miraculous” win. That’s when Time magazine had that famous cover: “Yanks to the Rescue” bragging about the whole whole operation.
Remember also that they managed it without martial law.
Now, in Ukraine, given the unfathomable depths of depravity of the authorities, you need to consider how they are going to be using this bs “martial law” emergency status. It probably means carte blanche for any manner of outrage, theft, robbery or even kidnapping or anything you can think of, in the areas designated as worthy of martial law because of suspected “pro-russianness”. It could be very ugly, and we may not hear much about it.
It is by no means a given that Poroshenko will lose the election. Only if his handlers have a good replacement, otherwise they may well find a way to keep him a while longer.
Porkoshitco is harvesting Russian souls to throw into an offensive against the novorussians. He thinks in this way to thin out the sympathetic to Russia peoples…but the events won’t work out that way. When Russia moves into this conflict her armaments will seek out the banderist pigs hiding well behind the intended slaughter line.
Porko will end up being dragged dead behind a tractor through Kiev. Time is running out for the monsters spawned in Obama and Merkel’s blood soaked coup.
To predict the future we must understand the past.
Gorbachev and Yeltsin were just puppets (Selected) by the Globalist Forces, working in back ground. They are powerful, competent, patient and masters of using Illusion, Deception and Diversion.
They were able to manipulate Russian, to believe that the Democracy and Prosperity were coming soon. In fact they moved the Russian Society from Socialism (State Capitalism), to Corporate Controlled Society through PRIVATIZATION, making Russian people tenants in their land. First they hijacked the Army, after Installed a Corrupted pro N.W.O government (using force), and dissolved U.S.S.R.
They were able to do it only after manipulating and misleading the Russian People.
A four-part referendum was held in Russia on 25 April 1993. Voters were asked questions on confidence in President Boris Yeltsin, support for the government’s socio-economic policies and early elections for both the presidency and parliament.
At Part I – Do you have confidence in the President of the Russian Federation, B. N. Yeltsin? Yeltsin won with 59.9 %
At Part II – Do you support the economic and social policy that has been conducted since 1992 by the President and Government of the Russian Federation? Yeltsin won with 54.3 %
At Part III – Should there be early elections for the President of the Russian Federation?
Yeltsin got only 48.8 %
At part IV – Should there be early elections for the People’s Deputies of the Russian Federation? Yeltsin won with 69.1 %
This resulted on the constitutional crisis of 1993, which was a political stand-off between the Russian president Boris Yeltsin and the Russian parliament that was resolved by using military force.
Russian constitutional referendum, 1993 – was held in Russia on 12 December 1993. The new constitution was approved by 58.4% of voters, and came into force on 25 December.
The point is that the Russians were pro Globalists, before and after Globalist took over the government by using force. They are in N.W.O Tracks, ant it is impossible to be derailed.
Same blueprint was used in the Ukraine.
Poroshenko is a puppet. The Globalists are working in the background. They are powerful, competent, patient and masters of using Illusion, Deception and Diversion. They never are going to attack head on (no matter that they have unlimited capitals). Theirs strategy is to hold Russian in a perpetual conflict, which would drain economical resources, until the majority of Russian will accept the reality, and quit reacting.
Regarding the “old” Ukrainian Navy, I was actually surprised to learn that the vessels involved in the Kertsch straight incident were in fact brand new, the “Berdyansk” being completed in 2016, and the “Nikopol” joining the fleet this year! Apparently there is still some funding for the military, despite the whole country going into a tailspin
I would not be so sure about the prospects of Poroshenko. Something makes me think this freak has every chance to be re-elected for a new term. Naturally, it will not be transparent legitimate elections. This is not the case. By the way, remember how the “world community” (read, Americans) demanded the third(!) round of elections in order to put Yushchenko (convenient for them) on the throne – then Yanukovych, in fact, refused his victory. The same with Poroshenko – the election results can be (and will be) falsified in any way to get a result that suits a suzerain.
See for yourself. In the hands of Poroshenko is a power resource, almost complete control over the media, gangs of radicals (who gained permissiveness under the rule of Poroshenko) ready to act. Plus, so far the foggy, but still the prospect of obtaining autocephaly of the schismatic Ukrainian church. Plus, the [now] imposed martial law with all the ensuing consequences – the “legitimate” suppression of anti-government protests and mass meetings, the seizure of property, the arrest of unwanted people, and so on.
Plus, one must bear in mind that there’s a lot of time until the end of March 2019 (date of elections). Every day something happens in the world. A lot can happen in 4 months. I am almost certain that the Kiev regime will undertake another provocation (maybe not one) against Russia/LDPR, probably somewhere in February-March 2019. I expect including some kind of “chemical provocation” very possible. This topic is very trendy now. Ukrainian chasteners may well blow up some kind of “toxic substance” on their territory, accusing the Donbass militia in this and stating that “Russia has supplied chemical weapons to Donetsk terrorists”, and also that “Moscow did it in Salisbury, now it does it on Ukraine!”. By the way, in the media (at least in the Russian) there were already quite a lot articles on the subject of the preparation by Ukrainian chasteners of chemical provocations in the Donbass. The well-known source Cyber-Berkut also reported on this.
After all, why Poroshenko should not suit his curators? I think he quite suits them. He is an obedient and extremely loyal vassal, ready to lick the feet of his suzerain on the first signal. He does all that his suzerain tell him. Ukrainian society continues to be deliberately radicalized against Russia, all ties with Russia (cultural, humanitarian, economic, etc) continue to be broken, even religion did not become an obstacle [for Nazis] – the split in Orthodoxy, initiated by Poroshenko (with the sanction of his American masters), completely fit the required anti-Russian politics.
In the information sphere, the Ukrainian regime also faithfully serves its suzerain, not tired of inventing all new reasons for attacking Russia – from the fake about the “Russian invasion” to the staged “Babchenko’s murder”. One should not forget about the story of the Malaysian Boeing, shot down by the Ukrainian regime in 2014. This story is not over yet, it will still manifest itself (at the right time). I mean, Poroshenko, being in power, is ready to do even this [kind of things] – shoot down a foreign civilian aircraft with the aim of accusing Russia. Such a faithful servant is very useful to the suzerain. The Kiev regime continues (with the tacit consent of the masters) quite successfully ignore/violate the notorious Minsk agreements, thereby not allowing to settle the conflict in the Donbass (thus preserve the irritant for Russia).
What’s the sense for a suzerain to get rid of such a devoted servant? I think on the contrary, a suzerain is very interested to keep/save such a servant. So I think it’s very likely that Poroshenko can be “re-elected” so that he can sit at his throne until Putin leaves (in 2024). Then the masters will see what to do next…
Yes, of course, stupid devotion of such a servant has some costs – absolute and uncontrollable corruption, as well as too obvious manifestations of Nazism (they should do it all a little more modest), which are already becoming impossible to ignore for the “world community”. This ballast is, of course, undesirable, and it would be better to get rid of it. In this sense, replacing Poroshenko with Tymoshenko may be justified – the “new” person will as if “cross out” all past sins, and thus it will be possible to “start from scratch”.
Even if the ‘…oshenko’ will starts not with ‘Por’, but with ‘Tim’, will it change the very meaning/essence of the Ukrainian regime? The answer is no. Of course no.
I should remind that it was Timoshenko who proposed to surround Donbass residents with barbed wire and shoot them with atomic weapons. This “nice woman” professes the same things as savage Petro – the war against the Donbass residents, the refusal to negotiate with the LDPR, the preaching of the mythical “war with the Russian army”. In her case, perhaps, the cave-like wild Russophobia that is habitual to today’s Ukraine will be slightly modified to give the regime some kind of “benevolence” towards Russia. However, wholly pro-Western and tough anti-Russian course of Ukraine will be preserved, even if war criminal Poroshenko is replaced with “nice woman” Tymoshenko. The essence will not change.
Tymoshenko can be more preferable only in the sense that she will simply allow “to throw off the ballast” of Poroshenko’s past sins. Petro serves his suzerain very diligently, but sometimes he, as they say, “goes too far” – there’re too frequent torchlight processions, Nazi camps to prepare children for war with Russia… Plus corruption of monstrous proportions. A suzerain may want to get rid of such a ballast, and in this regard, the election of Tymoshenko is quite a suitable option.
Again, I would not be so categorical. In 2008, it took about 5 days to force Georgia to peace. But now we are talking about the Ukrainian army, which – although it is in a very poor condition – is still much stronger and more powerful than the Georgian one. The human resource is also much larger. Plus, direct military support from the United States. After all, the main goal of the 2014 events was including involving Russia in a direct military conflict with Ukraine. It failed. If now the Kiev regime decides to start such a conflict with Russia, I think Western sponsors of Ukraine will do everything possible and impossible to prolong such a conflict as long as possible – there will be direct deliveries of military equipment and all kinds of support (intelligence data, satellite data, information support etc), plus the regular replenishment of the ranks of the Ukrainian army with various kinds of “mercenaries”/”volunteers” who are ready to fight against Russia (like in Syria).
Yes, there is no doubt that such (theoretical) aggression of the Kiev regime will be suppressed, and the Russian army will win. I just want to say that it is unlikely that everything will end so easily in 1-2 days – the masters of the Kiev regime will not allow this. They have invested too much in this regime. They can not consent to lose it just in 1-2 days.
Theoretically, even if the Russian border guards would sink these three vessels, Poroshenko certainly would not have started a war against Russia. Sunken ships (and killed Ukrainian sailors who violated the Russian border) would simply be used as a more “convincing” reason for the need to impose martial law. Plus, undoubtedly, it would allow Petro to have more “arguments” for accusing Russia of “aggression” (“Look! The aggressor sank our ships! Need more sanctions!”).
The purpose of the provocation was precisely to cause as much rude and serious as possible reaction of Russia (ideal for Poroshenko – if Russia killed the trespassers and sank the court). But in fact, everything turned out to be pathetic and unimpressive. No one is killed, the vessels are banally arrested and confiscated. The usual primitive case of violation of the state border, to which standard response measures were taken. That’s why the introduction of martial law looks so ridiculous and absurd.
If cases of violation of state borders of the countries and arrested violators served as a reason for maintaining martial law in the country, then obviously the vast majority of countries in the world would live in a permanent martial law, because every day someone somewhere violates the border – land, sea or air. This is a banal “daily practice” that is not widely publicized and is not covered in the media. In case of Poroshenko, he decided to make this banality a pretext for imposing martial law. A wretched farce. Especially since the violation of the border was purposeful and planned.
A third round? Mad! Or I should say, deeply corrupt. The whole French idea of a second round in which only the top two candidates can stand is mad. They should allow all candidates except the single one who won the least votes to stand again.
But still mad. VERY expensive. Preferential voting with a single transferable vote in which the voter lists the candidates in order of preference solves that problem. If your first-preference candidate didn’t win, the remaining preferences are redistributed, in effect you have automatically voted a second time, and if needed a third.. No need to go to the polls again, at huge cost.
Is there a possibility that Timo could realize that her Russophobia was a mistake, looking at the failed state that that has caused? She might surprise, suddenly court Russia and all the country’s problems would be immediately solved.. Is Ukrainian hatred of Russia so deep? And today, so irrational?
Doesn’t Cacashvilli look like a stonned hamster?
Nice one Saker :)
No the Us is going nowhere and neither is Ukraine. Petroschencko who is out of petro faces some real difficult decisions, should I hang or be shot. I personally favor quartered. There is nothing like a quatering to really make politicians take their jobs seriously.
So Petroschenko buys it sometime March and Dear Lovely Long legged Iulia inherits the seat. There was another Iulia in wold history, it did not fare her well. But our time Iulia is NOT stupid, a thif, yes, but not stupid and quite cunning. I predict Iulia haveing a glowing welcome in Moscow, and differences will be settled. Crimea is gone. But a just settlement for the “russian regions” and things will settle down. Dear Iulia becomes “Mother” of a new Ukraine, a little like Finland, looking both east and west.
Now, she is a cunning bit, sorry woman, pretty smart, she will probably realize that she can put Ukraine on the world map again. She needs a peace with Russia. She will get that. And the Petro will keep flowing.
Poroschenko is fully to blame foe all the faulty decisions made, anybody with an IQ of 75 can point out the idiot behaviour of the Ukranian regime.
But please rember they endorse Nazi’s. We do not like that or are Nazi’s salonfähig suddenly? Not where I live.
The incident was a crude provocation. Thankfully Russia is not crude anymore (honestly it was a long way back in time, KGB officers were the easiest to spot) Russia is at the Zenith concerning diplomatic negotiations and diplomatic relations at large, it has never had the voice it ha today. The voice of reason, the voice of calm. the voice of negotiations. I put sergei Lavrov up there with the other skilled and cunning diplomats history has brought. A true patriot and skilled too. I think he is in the footsteps of Willy Brandt, realpolitik, knowing what is doable and what is not.
I hate to but must, give credit in this sense to both Ronald Reagan and Michail Gorbachev. They are slandered to often by people who were not there and people who overlook factual things.. The did stop the nuclear race and then a collective sigh could be heard. Whatever faults both men had they stopped a very dangerous game, at least for that they should have our gratitude. Both made other significant mistakes. (Sigh)
But it did not last did it? I am maybe naive but I do believe these two presidents wanted a safer world for our children to inherit.
Especially we Europeans a re not interested in a new European war, If the US wants a war lets fight in Alabama. Iam not even asking Russia because their answer is solid clear: No more war in the motherland.
In a way I wish that either Denmark or Sweden could make such a profound statement, alas we cant as we decided never to build nuclear arms, but we could in 6 moths, Sweden probably faster and many. As can Germany. And Italy. And Finland. And Norway. And The Netherlands. And Belgium. And Austria. And probably Poland.
Europe is not going to become a proxy battlefield for American interests. Ok th UK is sliding into the north sea and goodbye to them, but the rest has pretty much seen where we are going.
The US has anihiliated itself with corporate greed, enable by lax and populistic administrations. Curiously enough the last serious administration was the Nixon one where many protections were brought on board. Nixon today would be judged a socialist. That is where we are.
LOL what potential war? Europeans can’t even fend for themselves domestically and Americans know they are just a ridiculously overpriced cowardly paper tiger who the flee the fuck out of anywhere with a slight risk of mass death. Trust me when I say even if Russia if goes full imperalist mode to annex the whole of Ukraine, NATO is just going to do exactly nothing of importance militarily.
What the Ukraine needs more than anything is a 5 year plan.
– Remember those? :-)
The conflict with Kolomoysky and his March 25 removal from his government post as governor of Dnipropetrovsk may be a watershed. To their credit, the Poroshenko administration has been trying to protect the state s interests. It undercut Kolomoysky s economic influence, in part by removing his proxies from UkrNafta and UkrTransNafta, a majority state-controlled energy company that has long been his cash cow, even though he only holds a minority stake.