Nothing major has happened over the past 24 hours, but a lot of small but interesting things have happened in the past couple of days. What I propose to do first today is to list them with a URL to the original source:
A Ukrainian Smørrebrød:
According to a recent poll of the Lithuanian TV station TV3 82% of their viewers say that Russian media info is trustworthy. Get the details here in English from FortRuss: 82% of Lithuanian viewers support Russia
There is now also a petition in the UK to oppose UK military involvement in the Ukraine. See here: No to British Military Involvement in Ukraine
A Swiss newspaper is saying that the US delivered four mini-nukes to the Ukraine. I am 99.9999% sure that this is nonsense. But the rumor itself is an interesting fact. See here: Vier amerikanische Mini-Atombomben in der Ukraine ?
Neocons still want to believe that they will beat Russia. See here: Why Russia Will Lose in Ukraine
Russia and Cyprus has signed a military agreement. See here: Russia, Cyprus sign military cooperation agreement
Russia is offering Antey-2500 missiles to Iran. See here: Russia offers Iran latest anti-ballistic missile system, Tehran considering deal – Rostec CEO
Ukraine is entering hyperinflation. See here: Ukraine Enters Hyperinflation: Currency Trading Halted, “Soon We Will Walk Around With Suitcases For Cash”
Prices are causing shortages in the Ukraine. See here: Из-за роста цен украинцы опустошают магазины
The OSCE is doing it’s utmost not to notice that Novorussia is withdrawing its heavy weapons while the junta is not. See here: OSCE neglects its mandate in Ukraine – Moscow
Three citizens of Donetsk were executed by the Novorussian authorities for committing terrorist attacks using a 82mm mortar against the civilian population. Their motive? Money. See here: Ополченцы казнили троих дончан, которые за деньги обстреливали город
The US/NATO are continuing their saber-rattling along the Russian border. See here: US-NATO Military Convoy of Tanks and Armored Vehicles at Russia’s Doorstep, Rolling Along the Estonia-Russia Border
Novorussians soldiers are finding US equipment including communication gear in Debaltsevo. See here: US Electronic Equipment Abandoned By Deserting Ukrops In Debaltseve
Zakharchenko is fed up with junta’s non-compliance with the Minsk accords and has issued an ultimatum: comply by tomorrow or else. See here: Ukraine: ‘An attack on the Donbass ends Minsk agreements’ – Zakharchenko
It is quite clear that the junta is either unable or unwilling to implement the Minsk-2 Agreements (M2A) and that the US is acting like that agreement was never signed in the first place. In fact, since Poroshenko’s power is entirely dependent on US support, I consider him as little more then the executioner of US orders with little or no power of his own.
There are more and more signs indicating that M2A was a major victory for Russia which succeeded in making the Europeans commit to something the US does not want and which Poroshenko cannot deliver on. Clearly, the US is now using all its power to get the OSCE to shut up and look the other way, but time is definitely on the Novorussian side: they can wait until it is clear that it was the junta which did not comply with M2A at which point the Russian-Novorussian border will de jure be lost for the junta (de facto they lost it last summer).
Zakharchanko is literally radiating confidence and so are the other Novorussians. The contrast with the chaos in Kiev could not be greater.
As for the US, it is acting like reality simply does not exist. For Uncle Sam, it purely “more of the same”, more rhetoric, more saber-rattling, more hot air even though nobody seems to be taking it very seriously.
What will be crucial in the near future is to see whether Merkel and Hollande will hold the course on M2A or whether Uncle Sam will force them to cave in yet again. They now have *a lot* invested in M2A, but then again, so did the EU with Southstream. My feeling is that right now anything could happen, it is a 50/50 situation. Lavrov is doing a great job demanding that the German and French stick to the deal and so is Zakharchenko.
All in all, I am rather satisfied with the recent developments.
I have a medical background, so it is not lightly that I judge the US neocons to be delusional. When Paul Craig Roberts was in the Reagan administration in the 1980s, the neocons were referred to (by actual non-zio Americans) as “the crazies”, and only half in jest. It has only gotten worse with time. The current generation of neocons has been raised believing their own propaganda. As their propaganda has increasingly diverged from reality, they have suffered the equivalent of a psychotic break. Literally anything is possible with these people. Eight years ago, some nukes went missing in a very worrisome incident: http://www.globalresearch.ca/missing-nukes-treason-of-the-highest-order/7158
John Wheeler III, special assistant to Air Force Secretary during the 2007 B-52 nuke incident at Minot, was found dead in a Delaware landfill. Homicide concluded. Last seen on Amtrak from DC on Dec. 28, 2010. Dealing with neocons can be hazardous to one’s health. Not the first suspicious Air Force death as reported by Wayne Masden Report. Honestly, I am not so sanguine about the report of tactical nukes being supplied to the Ukie freaks. If not the DC based neocons, Igor Kolomoisky’s Israeli friends are capable of such atrocities. I would guess the odds are more like 50/50 of this being true.
Dear joy, I appreciate your medical training, and your anxiety. But as another Alternative Media reader I have to comment that PCR really rattles the war drums. If he was the only writer that I depended on for my info…he’s an extremely good writer….I would be in the hospital suffered from high anxiety. Really.
Staying here with Saker is a much more well balanced and positive experience. As well as the fact that Saker is more infomed about real war details that PCR.
I hope I don’t offend you, as I’m really trying to help you stay sane.
PCR was called the best columnist by Buchanan.
Spends a lot of time on the neoconservatives and economics.
He is a real patriot.
I have seen his writing style change over the years, he started
getting frantic about 2007 2008 openly naming the culprits and
being censored for it by Lew Rockwell, naming Israel, all these
wars are for Israel. Since then they have become more blatant.
” there is nothing American about the AEI ” PCR
PCR reads here.
I did not miss not one of our articles in the past for years Sir.
PCR certainly doesn’t pull his punches. But then, I have been reading his articles with deep interest for five years or so, and I have yet to catch him in a lie or even an inadvertent error. Perhaps he states his case so energetically because he is not so young any more – he tried to retire, but his readers wouldn’t let him – so he has lost patience. Also, he spent years trying to get the truth out by writing and speaking diplomatically, and got nowhere. So now when he sees a spade he calls it a spade, not a potentially valuable agricultural implement operated by biomuscular energy.
Sorry, but Paul Craig Roberts STILL believes that Great Liar Ronald Reagan was a “good guy”. So his writing about that time period is all gushy and full of unrepentant praises.
Remember also that he was the co-father of “Reaganomics” that was even called “voodoo economics” by Bush Senior!
So, Paul Craig Roberts is not some saint!
BTW, the murders of hundreds of thousands of people in Latin American during the reign of the Great Liar should not be forgotten or taken lightly.
Paul Craig Roberts was such an unabashed fan of the arch conservative Ronald Reagan. This makes the truthfulness of his present opinions more compelling not less.
PCR is one of my favorite sources on economics and finance (which are his professional specialty, after all), but I have grown a bit critical of some of his foreign-policy analysis. While I share his fundamental biases (pro-Russian, pro-Palestinian, etc.), he has a tendency to allow his emotions to cloud his judgement, making him sound hysterical. Saker, fortunately, seems to be better at separating his emotions from his analysis. And of course, he knows more about Russia than PCR.
I think PCR is a patriot and very insightful but has a maximalist outlook when fighting the Zionists. Almost a crazy against crazies ironically.
This can perhaps be understood by the way the US has lowered itself during his lifetime.
In eight comments, two mentions about PCR: “he’s a patriotic guy”. (?????) Let’s be fratriotic instead.
These criminals are not incompetent, chaos is their goal,
they and their partners benefit in many other ways. Their
partners made a killing on the rigging on the oil price, shares,
ruble, bonds, etc, that is just one point, they use other treasure
for their own tribal and personal gains.
“Chaos is their goal”.
Exactly. Ruin the middle class, destroy the infra-structure, drive millions into exile, poison the water supply, drive up the mortality rate, drive down the birth rate, to leave the land and resources of the nation for oligarchs to pick up for pennies on the dollar, or simply steal. Meantime, state power is transferred to globalist tools such as Yats and Porky.
if you got the time and the inclination, I highly recommend the work of Rene Girard especially his take on Clausewitz — english title: battling to the end. Don’t let the crazies make you crazy.
I think you’re right. The criminal oligarchs who control the US govt and media need to change the direction of the present calculus. They are losing and it may soon snowball into a much bigger loss.
One of the signs of this is the almost frightening rate of Chinese growth (See Pepe Escobar’s article, which is on Saker’s Oceana & elsewhere.) Another is the rate at which many population segments are beginning to see through their propaganda.
They have to “do something” and it has to be something big. They cannot allow Europe to slip out of their control, so they must inflame public opinion and fears against Russia.
They are obsessed w ruling the world; it is a religion w them– and I don’t mean one of the world’s great religions.
Thanks for your comment. Regards.
I have a professional background in mental health (psychotherapist) and have followed the same stories over the years. I do not think there is anything over the top about any of what you say, as is implied by at least one response below. A former US ambassador to the USSR recently referred to US foreign policy as autistic. I think delusional, psychotic, psychopathic, narcissistic or autistic do accurately describe them. The neocons are fanatically bent on global domination, which they openly acknowledge in their writing, and are willing to play their last card (including nukes) to accomplish their goal, regardless of any consequences to humanity. They have built their underground cities and are prepared for nuclear events. People can downplay their potential if they want, but we underestimate them at our peril. These are very dangerous people. There is nothing emotional or anxious about stating the facts of the situation.
Just as an aside, the list of neocon hits is incredibly long. They take out anyone who stands in their way or who knows too much. Now they are taking out bankers, evidently. Maybe one day they will start taking out each other. That is at least something we can hope for… ha
I have very strong doubts about the tactical nukes article. But if tactical nukes are being positioned in Ukraine, my guess would be that they would be intended for use in a false flag attack with Russia being blamed. I can’t conceive of a scenario being approved wherein the U.S. could be blamed. On the other hand, the U.S. is run by psychopaths.
Dear The Saker,
Somehow I think the AZ’s might use this ;(.
p.s. I asked on the previous post but will put here too – what is your military analysis of the s300’s in Odessa? Thanks.
Maybe secure ship with US-made weapons to arrive in the next days …
Veritas, there are more coming!
We already know that at least 4 and possibly as many as 24 ABMs have been stationed at Odessa. Now look what’s comin– this time laundered thru UAE.
“Obama apparently is going ahead with his plan for NATO missiles to be placed in Ukraine aimed against Moscow, but found a way to do it that won’t violate the warnings by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin against Washington’s directly supplying those arms to Ukraine”
This article detailing US relations w its allies in the Middle East, including its impact upon 9/11, closes w this para:
“The circuitous way in which Ukraine will be buying its weapons is designed to avoid triggering a declaration of war by Vladimir Putin, or else to make non-obvious to the public why he would be justified in doing so.”
The UAE seem to be refuting Kiev’s claims:
Seems they are hedging their bets, considering Russia, China and India are much closer and bigger trading partners than the US. Without support of these countries or making enemies of these countries will be detrimental to their health even with support of the US. If India and China decide to bypass Dubai then Dubai is dead. All good stop at Dubai and get routed to their destinations. Sending weapons to Ukraine might help in the good side of the US but it wont look good in anyone else’s eyes. Unlike the old times when it supplied the afghan terrorists with arms, they are far too advanced and dependent on asia than Europe or the US for their survival. I know that even a decade ago Indian demands about extradition of criminals would just be ignored but seems to be changing now. Maybe because India has become more friendly with Israel. All these countries supplied weapons to Pakistan. India can pivot as well, being the largest market for these countries, to Iran and Russia for energy security. Leaving them with Europe which is less profitable and costs a lot more. china also falls in the same orbit there.
UAE is the only country where the Saker can get a passport without having to be born there or applying for citizenship.. No human can do that. That also means free virgins, 10 star accommodations, all the camel you can eat buffet and massages anytime anyway way any and type and a Presidential security detail .. And an unlimited expense account..
I put this up on the previous article but will repost it here > “the US is now using all its power to get the OSCE to shut up and look the other way”
Seems to be a US submission to the OSCE. Very nasty.
U.S. Mission to the OSCE
As delivered by Chargé d’Affaires a.i. Kate Byrnes
to the Permanent Council, Vienna
February 26, 2015
Read more: http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2015/02/20150226313800.html?CP.rss=true#ixzz3SuEVQY3q
Shouldn’t be hard to coerce OSCE. They are bought and paid for peg boys and whores already.
They serve a purpose. Say “boo!” and they run away. So they don’t report what everyone else sees and they are afraid to see what the militia doesn’t want them to see. Just pond scum.
I’m very critical of the OSCE (and for that matter, the JCCC) and think they are mostly a waste of time, except for Kiev, because they are very biased. Many parts of their public reports are just plain rubbish: they heard shells, but couldn’t tell if they were coming or going(?) – then why mention it???
Great sitrep as always.But one detail is wrong.It was Lithuania not Latvia that had the poll on Russian news being truthful.Which is even better actually.Because the Slav minority is only around 5% or so.While in Latvia,if you include them all its closer to 32%.
Found story at http://iouco.tumblr.com/ (via Fort Russ)
I don’t know what the last part means (lost in translation?).
The paranoia promoted by Grybauskaite TV is not working :)
February 23, during a news program, viewers were asked
“You notice that in Lithuania growing propaganda (by russia)?”.
At the end of transmission leading sounded live results of
the survey: 12% answered “Yes”;
6% do not notice the growth of propaganda,
82% said “This isn`t propaganda, Russia just telling the truth”
These results have caused a frightened presenter Renata
jackals-Yakovleva – A little confused to report these data, the
TV immediately gave the floor to a sports commentator. After
the end of the sports pages, the journalist said that “the very
portal techniques for suspicious activity survey” because
“in such cases, the activity is half” (see video. Here). [no link to video]
The US neocons would have to get mini-nukes from some other source, not American arsenal.
And Europe and the US would disappear in response. There would be no second strike from the West. It would simply disappear.
So, this is bullshit nonsense to talk about artillery or short range missile warheads.
Russia would unload its entire first strike ICBM’s in immediate response.
You don’t start a death match with a left jab.
The reality of the war American freaks have bought for themselves is the most lopsided, no hope of victory for the Hegemon war.
It is Custer going after the Oglala. The West have too few men, guns, and reserves and are on Indian territory. The Russians will triumph because they must, they are already winning, and the enemy is imbecilic.
Look at land warfare equipment. Russian equipment is superior. With forces outnumbered 3-4:1, they control the battlefield. There is no hope of any airpower support. The Ukies get everything shot down.
Turn down the sound from Brussels and Washington and look at the facts on the ground.
Look at the faces of the West’s “leaders”, compare to the militia and the Russian leaders.
Who looks like Custer facing 3000 Indians?
I wrote months ago, this was the Greasy Grass all over again.
Yes, they have killed thousands of civilians. Destroyed most of the housing. Ruined most of the industry and businesses.
But the West is broke, and when the shooting stops, China and its money will come into Donbass and help rebuild it. Russia will own whatever parts of Ukraine it wants.
No nukes. No air war. No missile exchange. Just a land war on unequal terms.
Left jab against a Muhammad Ali fifteen punch combination. Remember the Rumble in the Jungle. Rope a dope. Then the blistering finish and George Foreman fell on his face.
George Custer. George Foreman. King George. George W. That’s a name not to use for your sons. (Jorge works.)
We have to wait until “George” punches himself into helplessness. Rope a dope. Ali hit nothing but head shots, powerful right crosses to Foreman, over and over. Knocked him all around and then finished with left hook and the crushing right cross.
It was predictable if you understood Ali’s arsenal and Foreman’s weaknesses.
700 NATO ran from the Debaltsevo cauldron.
About that many new advisers are coming from various NATO militaries.
They will have track shoes in their kits this time. Buses for civilians may not be available.
The militia was under pressure to let some go. This time, I believe, we will see those NATO remains strewn across Donbass fields. It is going to be uglier than ever.
Great comment… love the Custer/Ali imagery… hope yer right!
Yes, I picked that italic rope-a-dope strategy as the most likely/probable approach last year. Stills hold true, imo. I also suspect the last round is coming up soon.
1. Russia (and others) have largely played for time to implement alternative systems weather any global (read Western) financial system warfare (SWIFT etc).
2.The SCO is maturing and now India is seeking Custom Union membership.
3. Iran may get the Antey-2500 and Saudi Arabia just signaled they may allow Israel use of its airspace to strike Iran (RT).
4. Sanctions are playing the role of trade barriers within the WTO framework and stimulating local content and economic development.
5. Ukraine is a failed bankrupt state of the Soviet era and no amount of NGO (read Soros) money and 20+ years of cultural ‘engineering’ can glue together what never was more than lines on a map.
6. Gas is likely to become a major front line. Ukraine is a major debtor to Gazprom and Russia can now soon turn off the gas without causing life threatening chaos in Ukraine. Shutting gas supplies over a frozen winter would not be globally palatable. However, a long spring-to-summer-to-autumn period is imminent with maximum ‘soft’ impact while not being life threatening. Time is on the the side of the supplier.
7. With around 1 million Ukrainian displaced Ukrainians in Russia need only pressure for their return to Ukraine and far greater chaos would follow.
I suspect the time approaches when Putin’s legalistic mind will see that the world court has enough evidence that the the Junta in Kiev, in spite of the msm spin in hyper-drive, is no longer a government and that a ‘government in exile’ awaits its chance to be installed in Kiev to bring the region back to some sanity. This is the US/NATO strategy for Syria etc. So, as Putin hinted during 2014, Russia will come as the liberator rather than the invader. Zakharchenko is clearly positioned as a possible new government leader of a loosely federated Ukraine. And he looks ready to march on Kiev.
As for the damage done the SE Ukraine. It’s a death before rebirth. Economic growth will come from the rebuilding — Germany and Japan are examples. And the demolition costs are already factored in. Agreed, hardly a good plan, but nonetheless a positive factor if the economic destruction was largely inevitable in any case.
And, I expect we’ll see massive future Chinese investment in Ukraine for non-GMO agriculture supplies (back-loading on the new Eurasian high-speed train system) and tourism etc.
It is hard to see if/when Putin will come out with the ‘rope-a-dope’ knock-out punch, or whether he will just keep the slow simmer on as the US/NATO keep selling enough rope to hang themselves with.
I recalled the remark. Couldn’t remember the source. You definitely had it first. And we see how it is playing out. Thanks.
Name Georgy (as in Zhukov) works especially well.
Strelkov reports that a US Marine flag was found by the separatists, but the Marines were missing. Do the Marines run away much?
According to the link above this Motyl character is a professor of Political Science but what he writes is completely one-sided and poorly written and it lacks any argument to back its opinionated assertions. I wondered initially if ‘he’ might be a pixel persona and automated software was cranking out this vitriol.
What sort of mark would his rabid papers get? Has he ever taken a course in critical thinking?
I read his article,he is totally delusional. I remember when Merkel was supposed to have said Putin lived in a parallel universe.Well that writer truly is in a parallel universe with that article.I couldn’t hardly make it through reading it.I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry over all that bs he was spouting.If the West really does believe that they are insane.
My guess is (just guessing) that if Ukraine political elite nuke Russia, Russian army wouldn’t answer with another nuke to Ukraine, but would hunt them Ukie politicos and bring them to trial in Russia or “in situ”, all of them, all the politicians, all the battalion “commanders”, all armed forces top heads and any other European who could oppose this reaction to said nuke… oh and they would advise America to stay OUT or else. And probably NATO would stay quiet, very quiet.
Serbian PM Aleksandar Vucic appointed Tony Blair – a war criminal who bombed Serbia in 1999 – a new adviser of Serbian government (RT’s “In the now” from 1:35). UAE will pay the bill.
That is very same Vucic who once was a reviewer of a book by Voislav Sesel titled “Енглески педерски испрдак Тони Блер” (“English Fag Fart Tony Blair”).
Can you imagine a person who invades your home, destructs it, grabs part of it, kills your kids with depleted uranium, and then you shake hands with him and invite him to work in your home like nothing is happened?
That is unbelievable. And Serbs are quiet. They are not revolting, not protesting, not demanding immediate resignation of this lousy traitor Vucic.
What is even more disgusting is that Serbian MSM are viciously attacking Putin and Russia for daring to report this on RT! Sickening.
The scary thing is US / UK recent rhetoric.
Kerry – Lavrov appear to be talking, but in general, the level of contacts between UK, US-Russia is very very low.
Remember recent Obama – Putin same event appearance (even they were shown at the same time on the giant screen), but did not even greet each other, nor shake hands…
Quo vadis world?
And another great piece of Robert Parry / Consortium News:
The numbers of losses of military of Ukraine in Novorossia for the period from April 3, 2014 to February 15, 2015. From the beginning of Kiev junta and NATO war on the nation of Ukraine, called an “anti-terrorist operation.”
Total dead: 25,718
Right Sector : 3.729
Ukraine Military servicemen : 13.862
Police force: 4 623
Secret police force: 379
Border patrol: 249
Military of the US (CIA, FBI) : 88
Private military contractor (USA and Poland) – 737
Other military servicemen: 1781
Many Right sector and private armies fighters weren’t counted, were burned in crematoriums and considered AWOL or disappeared without a trace.
Total losses with injured and AWOL by September 5, 2014: 47.103 servicemen.
Another extreme danger: Ukraine is becoming an open gateway for jihad to Europe.
There is lots of weird shit happening all over the Ukraine. An example – Melitopol. In 24 hours two leading civic figures have died in questionable circumstances:
Deputy chief of Melitopol police Oleksandr Bordyuh, 47, was found dead at his home on Thursday. The cause of his death is unknown. A crime investigation team is working at the scene in the residence near the Sea of Azov where the police official lived,” said police.
This is the second mysterious death of a prominent city officer in the last 24 hours.
On February 25, mayor of this same city of Melitopol, Serhiy Valter, was found hanged dead at his home.
That is strange.I remember hearing that many people in the Melitopol area were not friendly to the RS and the junta.I wonder if those deaths are connected with that.Were they killed by the resistance,or killed because they might have supported the resistance?
Excellent article by John Pilger and compelling advice on that last quoted line:
Why the Rise of Fascism is again the Issue
“….Their man in Moscow used to be Boris Yeltsin, a drunk, who handed his country’s economy to the West. His successor, Putin, has re-established Russia as a sovereign nation; that is his crime.
The responsibility of the rest of us is clear. It is to identify and expose the reckless lies of warmongers and never to collude with them. It is to re-awaken the great popular movements that brought a fragile civilisation to modern imperial states. Most important, it is to prevent the conquest of ourselves: our minds, our humanity, our self respect. If we remain silent, victory over us is assured, and a holocaust beckons”
Fascinating Mozgovoi video:
I liked the story about the ukies abandoning the new counter- mortar radar set all nicely packed in cases with spare parts. Off it goes to Moscow to be reverse-engineered. Probably a nice piece of hardware too.
I’m beginning to wonder if some UAF officer got bribed to accidentally leave the new counter mortar radar set behind for the rebels to find. It’s just too nice a prize all packed up in cases with spare parts – one of three sets the US supplied to Kiev. Off it goes to Moscow to be reverse engineered.
Wow! Talk about winter of discontent — the collapse is upon them. Stolen, or to feed the armies.
Hyperinflation now too.
Ukraine’s Strategic Food Reserve…Runs Out Of Food
Ukraine State Reserve doesn’t even have Azarov’s buckwheat. Everything was stolen.
Very doubtful Merkel and Hollande are serious about “peace”. The are as owned as McCain, Obama, Cameron, Harper and Abbott are. Some have to effect a “reasonable” attitude, that’s all. It’s all “good cop – bad cop” theater, as everything political is in the ZPC/NWO colonies. As long as there are people still left in the Ukraine, they’ll be used to provoke Russia. Once they run out Ukrainians, they’ll import other people to fulfill the role. It’s all about provoking Russia, not winning battles or taking back “Ukrainian” territory.
One of the main reasons, I think, that Russia has not run over the Ukraine to finish off their aggression once and for all, Like they did Georgia in 2008, is that if they do that, then the ZPC/NWO will use that “Russian aggression” to turn the Baltics and SE Europe into new “Ukraines” and the process will repeat. Keep repeating. The Russians, by not taking the bait, defeat the ZPC/NWO isolation and destabilisation strategy, while at the same time, Russia becomes stronger and better networked with others, while the ZPC/NWO decays into its own feces.
This is the first semi-sense article i’ve seen on the BBC since this all began:
“……As for EU membership, it’s unlikely any West European leader has ever considered this as more than the remotest of prospects, decades in the future and dependent on a whole series of extremely long and painful changes.
This is a decision therefore which would in all circumstances have to be left to a future generation.
Moreover, given the economic reality of Ukrainian economic dependence on Russia, salvaging Ukraine’s collapsing economy can only be done in co-operation with Russia, not against her.
Unless, that is, the EU is prepared to demand from West European populations enormous sacrifices for the sake of helping Ukraine. Anyone who believes that is likely should have a brief conversation with a Greek.
For the ceasefire to hold and a political solution to be reached, the governments of France and Germany will have to show an unwonted degree of resolve and toughness over the next year.
On the one hand, they will have to make clear to Moscow that the relaxations of sanctions against Russia will only come as a result of clear and consistent pressure on the Donbas rebels to abide by the terms of the ceasefire and to pursue autonomy within Ukraine, and not independence.
On the other hand, they will need to make clear to the Ukrainian government and to hardliners in Washington that significant EU aid to Ukraine, and an eventual path to possible EU membership, both depend on Kiev honouring the promise of real autonomy for the Donbas.
The present ceasefire and the associated political process are not perfect, but they present the best chance so far of ending this conflict, preserving by far the greater part of Ukraine as a unitary state, and avoiding an escalation of the war that would most probably be very bad for Russia and the West, and absolutely disastrous for Ukraine.”
Just signed the online petition against UK military involvement in Ukraine – not doubt my name will now be added to some UK Government blacklist as an enemy of the state !!
In Spain there are 8 guys detained by the authorities at there regress to Spain after fighting in Donbass as milicians with the DPR. They are facing impositions for murder , use without license of firearms and explosives. They are part of “brigadas internacionales Carlos Palomino”.
Fact (or not, see Wikipedia) this has to be at least the metaphor italic du jour regarding ‘Empire’ at large. Essentially it reads as code for: “Please adjust your attitude…”
Good analysis, Saker, as always very rational.
Since at least 2003 I try to understand the foreign policy of the Anglo-Saxon bloc (ASB :US, UK, Canada, Australia and, to a lesser extent New Zealand).
Well, it’s really quite confusing. As P. Escobar describes in is book, what we can currently see is a bloc seeding insecurity and chaos in parts of the world (Middle-east, Arabian peninsula, Africa, Europe, South-Asia). Although I was, at first, very skeptical, I now think that we have, in fact, two or more factions seeking for power essentially in the US :
– Neo-cons and Liberals-interventionists (they are the same) seeking to impose the rest of the world their vision of society (A (ultra) Liberal one). Basically, it’s a Empire imposing its order upon the rest of the world. This faction is financed by a lot of heavy weight military contractors, extraction industries, media giants.
– An Isolationist faction, seeking a slowdown in military budget, at least in order to renovate and maintain the US infrastructure. (For example Ron Paul Institute)
– A Peace faction (I’m not sure : pure speculation), which could be financed by some Heavy weight corporations in the US that need international peace to do increase their profits (For example Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook…).
What is very difficult to understand is the apparent total lack of success of the operations recently launched by the ASB (Irak, Afghanistan, Syria, Egypt, Libya, Ukraine, Yemen, Venezuela, Somalia…). Yes, it’s True that these countries are destroyed (at least partially), but this chaos can hardly be called a success, because a lot of countries turn to more stable support (China, Russia), at least because they are not able to decipher the foreign policy of the US. Even for the weapon industries, total chaos is bad for profits (countries are not even able to buy heavy armaments).
The situation in Ukraine is most frightening and incomprehensible. The US interests are hardly at stake and this is what bother me the most : The current power in Washington is (apparently) acting like reality simply does not exist, even if the facts are stubborns and continue to implement its script in this country, even if it has already fail. I think this is also what bother Europeans Leaders (Merkel, Holland) who see the war coming in Europe and are feverishly trying to avoid it. I’m very pessimistic about M2A, and, as Mr Zarkaschenko said, it will (probably) crumble at the end of March (or before), if only because Kiev neo-nazis battalions, the current Kiev government and the acting US faction are for war.
Our only hope for more bloodshed in Ukraine is an economic collapse of the country, and a National Union Government, excluding the ultra-nationalists coming to power – Given what we can observe, it could be Kremlin path to solve the crisis. Then, the constitution of Ukraine could be changed, transforming the country into a loose confederation, acting as a bridge between Central Europe and Eurasia.
But now it’s me who is dreaming…
Henon, I think there is little to zero Peace or Isolationist factions. You did not mention the Zionist faction – riding the US like a rented car. Or the ‘born again’ faction, to whom the earth itself is a rented car.
In general, Henon, you got the story right. (No surprise, since you’ve been reading Pepe Escobar.) But there are two points where you are almost certainly mistaken:
1.) There is no peace faction or isolationist faction in corporate America.
2.) France and Germany can jaw bone with Russia all they want, but they have no control over Ukraine or, more importantly, Ukraine’s overlord, the US. The war in Ukraine will last until the US decides it’s tired of it and gives up.
this is not so. As he said, the Libertarians – and the liberty movement is very large – is a considerable faction within the US now – and it is being driven by conservatives, not by the traditional anti-war left. Last Friday, Rand Paul received a standing ovation and frequent outbursts of applause in a talk to an important conservative group (CPAC). Rand Paul also won a straw poll a day or so ago: http://news.yahoo.com/homeland-crisis-gops-mcmorris-rogers-opts-meeting-212222167–politics.html
Many American conservatives are very disillusioned with the trajectory of US policy, both foreign and domestic. I think there is a cultural transition occurring that is being generally overlooked. People still hold stereotypes of American conservatives as fundamentalist extremists. No doubt, such people still exist, but it is possible the Liberty Movement (including the Libertarians) are gaining a majority among US conservatives. This poses a significant threat to the neocon agenda.
In case you haven’t been following them, the libertarians are strongly opposed to US imperialism and to all police state maneuvers, changes in law and the erosion of the constitution, as well as the manipulation of markets. At one time they may have been a fringe group, but this is definitely not the case any longer.
On a lighter note: Putin’s teenage fan club: the Russian president’s young devotees – in pictures.
Seeing this article reminds me of what a friend of Socrates said at his trial: “If he is truly a corrupter of the youth, then I say, let there be more such corruption of the youth!”
so where is the obhama fan club? I know at the local drone club with pictures of wedding parties and kids with targets painted on them..
The Obama Fan Club is at the New York Times.
Jihadist gangsters right at home in Ukraine:
In Midst of War, Ukraine Becomes Gateway for Jihad – The Intercept
Tom welsh, with regard to PCR , incredible how weboth got the same views on every detail this time and it´s nice to realize that. And yes there s a difference between Reagans neocons and those post-Bush ones: power supremacy on scale and the sole unison.formity of their unopposed propaganda sound.
As to the US sovereign P/R omnipotence, yes they got it and is important. But the world has had too much noise, too much interference, too many false flags, ditto spying, ditto arrogance, ditto arm twistings. And russian nukes loom from warsaw to Lisbon. So even P/R will reach its limit.
Lithuanian TV channel says hackers distorted TV poll results.
A Lithuanian television channel says it has been hacked and that those who infultrated the channel distorted the results of a poll about Russian propaganda.
Lithuanian TV chanel that conducted poll says that it’s site was hacked –
Lithuanian TV station says that it was subjected to cyber attack in relation to distorted poll
Saker, I have a new motto for the people of Donbass: “We are not Colorado Beetles, we are Tigers!”
A surprising story from Bloomberg news service:
No, Obama, Russia’s Economy Isn’t ‘in Tatters’ – Bloomberg View
Any comments on the interview of Borodai about Strelkov?
German politician Gregor Gysi speaks in Bundestag 11 months ago. Except his false claim that Kosovo has referendum rest works
On Ukraine and Crimea crisis, Gregor Gysi.: http://youtu.be/pculDDRKHdg
Piece of the year so far imho, John Pilger
Why the Rise of Fascism is Again the Issue
Ukraine’s most feared volunteers. No, not those guys. The BBC knows best; the Azov battalion goons who can run faster than they can shoot, once the first shots are fired.
Russia should take a cue from the Apartheid State’s playbook and preemptively bomb every single Ukrainian ‘missile shield’ site to smithereens and then go either ‘mum’s the word’ or vehemently deny any involvement in whatever happened. Russia can do this and walk away scot-free.
Mariupol will be next and with no long range artillery available and no air superiority on hand, the Ukrainians will have to fall back on H2H, street level, CQ combat and based upon the losses over the past year, that’s not their ‘cup-o’-tea’ at all.
H2H = hand to hand
CQ = close quarter
Well you break it , you buy it. I highly doubt Putin wants anything to do with Ukraine now. He got his ukranians and don’t want any more. Keeping Russians happy enough to not want his head for railroading some Russians will make him do the least required to not just alienate Russia to the same world. The apartheid state does not have many friends. So buying Ukraine and learning how to alienate people and make enemies is not the path one wants to take when creating a new world order. A great idea would be to ignore them and he has been doing a great job. How many people know Russian imports are now down over 80-90% compared to 10 years ago? Take out the donbass and it will be 100% in an year or two.
I’m no good at reading tealeaves and if I’d be clairvoyant I’d be sipping martinis on my yacht somewhere near the Maldives. Mariupol is needed for 2 reasons;
1) access to the sea via a viable seaport
2) expand territory to keep the KKK [Kiev Killer Kommandos] at bay
I guess Mr. Putin’s predominant priority is to keep Russia borders adjacent to ‘calm’ nations and territories and not ones that are in turmoil. The next step will be to keep continue building alliances Eastward and across the pond. China recently suggested [to the west] to have a look at the Ukrainian drama from Russia’s pov. That explains, in a nutshell, how the Siberian winds are truly blazing over the Siberian taiga. Both Russia and China have surpluses and enough money and gold in banks to lol all the way to them [the banks].
Watching the US/West struggle like this is like watching an eel trying to escape from a rusty hook; lots of foam, frothing and wrangling, but it’s getting nowhere. The heydays of the Empire of Doom are over and I sincerely hope autumn will do its job as humanly as possible [aka a sort of self inflicted mercy killing].
Sevastopol Crimea will be main seaport,with bridge connection to rus mainland.Rostov on don is also important river port
Peace is good. See Novorossiya greybeard warrior lament over young cannon fodder lives wasted by Kiev junta starting at 3:50. True humanity.
The Ukrainian assault on the east continues to follow the classic project-management trajectory:
• Unbridled enthusiasm: unrealistic promises
• Investigation: dodge blame, search for scapegoats
• Punish the innocent,
• Promote the guilty,
• Reward the uninvolved
The Nazi Kiev junta is in disarray so the Americans must be trying desperately to establish some sort of stability and chain of command. The USA will not allow the Kiev government to spiral out of control, but the average Ukrainian citizen may be cause for the junta not to be able to continue the fight no matter how much the USA encourages this process. M2 if implemented will not allow the US led NATO to install nuclear weapons in Ukraine, so at best we can anticipate a divided region with the western portion becoming a new NATO enclave. Meanwhile the USA will move to destabilize whoever they can in central Asia. It appears Russia and her allies can only move from a position of weakness to one ever stronger if they make few mistakes, while the US led west goes in the opposite direction, with the miscalculation of financialization and with the off shoring of industrial manufacturing of their debt saturated economies by the pure greed of it’s overlords, being the architecture of the western eclipse and perhaps their own fall from on high.
Just watched an interview with `Ukrainian’ troops on ABC (Australia). The soldier had what looked like the German flag colours on his sleeve and when asked if he was okay with dying for the cause he said, “yes, then I will go to Valhalla”.
Need I say more?
With regards to US intel / equipment to Junta forces here is link to a WSJ article which spells out what the US is providing.
First: “WASHINGTON—The U.S. is providing spy-satellite imagery to Ukraine to help in its fight against Russia-backed rebels, but with a catch: the images are significantly degraded to avoid provoking Russia or compromising U.S. secrets.”
“Currently, before satellite images are given to the Ukrainians, they are doctored to black out Russian territory, including areas along the Ukrainian border where separatists and Russian forces have set up staging areas for their operations, according to U.S. officials.”
So the US would have all the satellite information on Russian troops / equipment crossing the border and the many “invasions” documented. They just aren’t letting anyone see it of course for security reasons.
and regarding the mortar radar units that were supplied (one has been captured still in the undamaged boxes):
“Last fall, the U.S. delivered short-range radars to Ukraine to help its forces pinpoint incoming mortar and artillery fire, but withheld key components needed to make the system more effective.”
“The U.S. has provided the Ukrainians with a short-range counter-mortar radar system, known as the TPQ-48, which can identify the source of incoming mortar and artillery fire within an effective range of about 4 miles.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials credit the system with providing front-line forces with as much as 20 seconds of early warning of incoming mortar rounds—enough time to take cover.
But the U.S. withheld software, components and other parts that would have enabled the Ukrainians to use the system to automatically return fire against salvos fired by the separatists.”
The USA is sort of helping Kiev, almost.
TASS announces that Poro now want to increase army size to 240000…204000 will be active forces “which will ensure the timely deployment of a particular group of forces for deterrence, resistance to armed aggression and liquidation of the armed conflict,” the draft law says.”
So, I ask , does this prove he going to continue the war?
Lavrov is insisting OSCE are the only monitors according to Minsk even though Poro is determined to have international observers still.
OSCE reports that Kiev’s investigations into Odessa massacre are insufficient.
Voice of Sevastopol reports an incident of AFYU military staying behind, or concealing themselves , to report on possible AFN targets.
Google translate from anna-news article.http://www.anna-news.info/node/30434
Ukraine Ministry of Defence tries to reign in APU ‘s publicity, pronouncements, public announcements, communications ,unless they are registered with the Ministry , “all further statements on behalf of the APU units, which are carried out by persons who are not representatives of the press services of the above will be considered a provocation aimed to destabilize the situation in the country, “- said Acting Speaker”.
And re Aidar :http://rusvesna.su/english/1425263454
Some military of Ukraine’s Aidar volunteer battalion taking part in the punitive mission in Donbass, are involved in criminal activities, including extortion and arms trafficking, head of the Lugansk regional administration Gennady Moskal said on Sunday.
“A part of that battalion has deserted from frontline, they started looting, robbery, racketeering, theft of vehicles and other illegal war-time activity in the towns and villages controlled by the Ukrainian military,” the official’s website reads.
He also reported an attempt of transferring a certain number of guns and other weapons from war-zone to Kiev “to destabilise the situation” there.
“Several days earlier, the Lugansk regional police stopped a criminal group, led by Aidar military (callsign Filat). The criminals were fighting for an hour against the police and used automated guns.” As the police detained the military and searched the places where they lived, they confiscated over 6,000 bullets, five boxes with grenades, 15 mines, two boxes with with TNT blocks, twelve grenade launchers and several Kalashnikovs. “We have opened criminal proceedings, the suspected are detained,” he said.”