Things decidedly do not look good right now. Poroshenko has replaced that clown Geletei with a bona fide war criminal Col. Gen. Stepan Poltorak, a far more dangerous and evil character who used to be the commander in chief of the junta’s death squads (aka “national guard”).
The fact that Poroshenko would appoint such an odious figure indicates that he is trying to appease the neo-Nazis who are demanding a full resumption of hostilities. Interestingly, just like Geletei, Poltorak is not a military man but a person who made his career in the Ministry of Internal Affairs from where he was picked to head the notorious “national guard”.
On the same day, Pavel Gubarev, the “people’s governor” of Donetsk was the victim of an attack on his vehicle. Even though he was not hit by bullets, he has suffered very serious head trauma as a result of the crash of his car. He is now in a hospital in Russia in very serious condition.
The list of potential candidates who had an interest in murdering Gubarev is long. First and foremost, I would list the Ukrainian oligarchs whose assets Gubarev had promised to seize then, of course, the junta and various Neo-Nazis. Next, I cannot exclude the possibilityt that Gubarev could have been targeted by his own, Novorussian, political enemies and, finally, I would not exclude that the attack could have come from those circles in Russia who would see him as an obstacle for their plans for Novorussia. Needless to say, the hurray-patriots will blame Putin. Regardless of who ordered this murder, the fact that Gubarev is in very serious condition in a Russian hospital is very bad news as this is bound to have an extremely polarizing and distruptive effect on the ungoing feud between various Novorussian leaders.
|click here for high res|
Finally, there are numerous reports of Ukrainian attack all along the line of demarcation, including artillery strikes on Donetsk. The front has no moved much, but we are fare away from the “days of silence” which had been announced (see map).
Novorussian intelligence sources are constantly reporting large concentrations of Ukie armor in various locations and the arrival of more troops. At the same time, the work for the the creation of the buffer zone seems to be continuing. I am getting the sickening feeling that just like the Georgians who worked with the Russian peacekeepers right until Saakashvili ordered his troops to attack, the Ukies will contine working on the demarcation line right up until the moment of they will attack.
Past experience shows that each time a top level US official visits Kiev, something very bad happens. Victoria Nuland (aka “f**k the EU”) has just concluded a visit to Kiev which received only very little coverage. The purpose of her trip was never clearly explained and after she left, no official results of the trip were announced.
Things look decidedly bleak and the fact that there will soon be elections in Banderastan and Novorussia will not make things better.
There is also a very real possibility that the US are considering dumping Poroshenko for another figure. I have an article on this tomorrow in Russia Insider and I will re-post it here. If that happens, we can expect an ever worse and more ruthless commander in chief for the Junta Repression Forces.
How bad could it get?
|Superior morale and training: he will win|
The military map shows that the Novorussian Armed Forces are in a fundamentally sound posture and that they should be able to prevent any deep Ukie incursion (unless,of course, the will decide to pull the JRF in to better incircle it). I have it from an excellent source (about which I will tell you in a couple of week), that the morale of the Novorussians is sky high, though I cannot imagine that the infighting inside the Novorussian leadership will not have negative impact. The fact that Russia has, for the time being, decided to turn off the “aid-spigot” must also be demoralzing and no amout of guarantess given by the Kremlin can change that. Still, the NAF are far better trained, often better equipped (in qualitative terms only), their current posture is sound and Russia will, I am sure and my sources fully concur with this, re-open the “aid spigot” should the JRF attack again. The Ukies have their usual advantage in numbers (men, armor, artillery). I therefore have no reasons to believe that they will be more successful the next time around.
|Russian Airmobile attack|
One more thing in conclusion: you have probably heard that western sources announced that the Russians had withdrawn (some vague) “forces” from the border; you might even have heard that the Russians confirmed it. This is all a big smokescreen. The Empire says “we scared the Russians” and the Russians reply “see how peace-loving a good we are?!”. In reality Russian forces are mobile enough that they don’t need to be close to the border to intervene in Novorussia. If a Russian intervention ever happens (say if Donetsk really risks being overrun by the Ukies), then this will mostly involved very mobile forces (special, airmobile and airborne), supported by fixed and rotary wing aircraft, which will give plenty of time for heavier forces to move in, if and when needed (which will not be very often). Check out the image above of Russian Airborne Forces training in the Caucasus: this is what a Russian intervention in Novorussia would like. Not long columns of tanks.
the ceasefire has proved beyond doubt that it was meant to be unilateral enforcible on NAF with zero committment from the Ukrs. It has been used as a smokescreen for the AZs to proclaim that if complied by NAF, then, perhaps then, sanctions would sometime be lifted. On the other hand the Communists Party in Russia has published reports on the infamous Chubais and the ceo of Sberbank as the financiers of the Ukr war complex, and other observers have proclaimed that inside the DPR government, Zak himself is in cahoots with them. True or not, Mozgovoi has gone as far as claiming that two officers of his brigade were abducted by DPR officers and have disappeared. Gen Petrovsky is also denouncing that Zak apparently is against forming the central command, and that every NAF brigade is all by itself. One can only hope that much of this is desinfo. Yet, today appeared in youtube a film showing a train column preceded by a Russian locomotive with its flag, carrying armoured vehicles proceeding westwards closely followed by two Russian helicopters. Either way, it very much seems that the withdrawal is only apparent. Nevertheless, it very much appears that Russia is demanded to shown its teeth once again. Diplomacy, at this stage, has partially failed. Ukrs is bent to suicide, and no arrangements between the central banks of Russia and Ukr as publicized by Itar tass, can make a difference at this stage. Ukrs has to collapse, there is no other way. Very much apparent, the law of karma is working and the self-dellusion has to complete itself. Yes, Poro is a too much worn card, Tymo’s time may be on the horizon, and this does not bode well. She was the first to vocalize nuking Donbass and Russia to the ground, and is responsible no less than Kholo for the crimes in Odessa.
in the internal Russian front, the press is trying to understand how such an untimely vote on the Rotenberg law for devolving thye monies of the EU-frozen assets of the oligarchs, could have been raised at the Duma in the first case and in this very moment. So, as Dugin put it: it is time for Putin to make up his mind, or perhaps to show it, manifestly, that Novorossya is not negotiable.
The AZs will not accept Putin back into the club. Once expelled, there is no returning card, and for the world’s sake, Russia has to finally grow to assert herself. A good growl, no chest pounding.
Saker, there are big doubts, already voiced on Russian social media, that Pavel Gubarev has been targeted for assassination. The suggestion being, that it may have been a traffic accident, with a legend invented by himself or his wife that he has been shot at. Some are even suggesting that it was all completely faked, for publicity before the election.
No idea if it’s true but I do remember that when he had been held by the Ukrainian Security Services for several months, his wife claimed he was severely tortured and in a coma, near death. It turned out to be completely untrue – when he was eventually released (exchanged), he was quite healthy.
So I am not in a hurry to believe another tale about him. He MAY be sick in hospital – because of not wearing a seat belt! But of course it sounds much more heroic to have been shot at than simply getting in a car crash.
@Anonymous: there are big doubts, already voiced on Russian social media, that Pavel Gubarev has been targeted for assassination. The suggestion being, that it may have been a traffic accident, with a legend invented by himself or his wife that he has been shot at. Some are even suggesting that it was all completely faked, for publicity before the election.
To my immense regret I have to admit that I personally consider that this is a possibility.
No idea if it’s true but I do remember that when he had been held by the Ukrainian Security Services for several months, his wife claimed he was severely tortured and in a coma, near death. It turned out to be completely untrue
Again, you are completely correct. I remember that very well.
So I am not in a hurry to believe another tale about him. He MAY be sick in hospital – because of not wearing a seat belt!
Again, I hate to say that, but I cannot deny that I consider this quite possible. I want to give him the benefit of the doubt because I am supportive of Novorussia, but there are a lot of things about him and other Novorussian leaders with bother me and which I try not to mention here. But since you raised that issue directly I owe you an honest reply and that reply of mine is that, yes, this official version might not be quite true.
Kind regards and many thanks,
Perhaps Nuland was telling the Ukies to go in so hard that Russia has to step in – them, it’s all on…!
The lion-hearted Putin will be in Milan at the end of this week to meet Eurasian leaders (German, Chinese, Ucrainian etc.)
Hence, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the border makes sense for the media.
Just after the crahs of MH17 the MSM in the West accused Russia and Putin. In GB, The Sun had the first page with a gigantic title “PUTIN’s MISSILE”, without quotation marks or any question mark.
But in the Russia Federation, are they sleeping?
What are waiting to drag The Sun to a court for defamation of the
President of the Russia Federation?
Asking a compensaton of several billion of pounds?
the americans probably know they cant win this but the idea will be to spread as much terror as possible. We all know torture doesnt work but they use it anyway as an act of terror. So I would expect these tactics, if/when Poroshenko goes and is replaced by whom you say then this is definitely a part of these tactics and we can expect increases in war crimes against civilians and shelling of non army targets, although I would expect that the civilian population would just flee eventually if that is an option rather than turn their backs on novorussian forces
@Saker: “The suggestion being, that it may have been a traffic accident, with a legend invented by himself or his wife that he has been shot at. Some are even suggesting that it was all completely faked, for publicity before the election.
To my immense regret I have to admit that I personally consider that this is a possibility.”
The man represents the civil version of Strelkov, hence all the most dangerous ideas (dangerous for the 5th column in DPR/LPR, the junta, the Russian 5th column, thus Washington itself) one could represent on this planet (no exaggeration).
Please don’t, at least you Saker, spread such harmful “guesses” in such critical times. It’s such baloney that you make me doubt your intentions.
There’s tons of arguments why he, his wife or escort, which drove behind him, did not invent this “legend”. To spearhead this theory with a distressed wife’s remarks about his !then unknown! condition doesn’t do you any good, Saker.
To be clear:
Such fakery contradicts the ideology he and his supporters represent, at the very least. The motive (elections) is very unrealistic, they were simply not in need for this (just listen to the commanding officers!). The risks on the other hand are high as the lord himself, possibly discrediting every word not only Guberev himself spoke so far. Please, turn your brains on, people, and don’t believe the evil’s fairy tale that there aren’t any good people left.
Unite and serve!
How Russia Sees the Ukraine Crisis
Brief description of Mr. Andranuk Migranyan speech at Center for National Interest
The speech itself is, of course, more interesting than its interpretation by Mr. Paul J. Saunders. He did not pay attention to one very important question asked by Mr. Migranyan at the end of his speech. What does the USA want? The White House keeps silence. Kremlin does not understand Mr. Obama’s intentions. Does Mr. Obama?
A Conversation with Andranik Migranyan
“Nuland demands war
A rare moment of truth from a US politician with Condoleeza Rice channeling Madeleine Albright. The destruction of European economy is a price worth paying. This video outdoes Bush with his comments that ‘this sucker [the US economy] could go down’ if the bailout scam legislation wasn’t passed and exemplifies his statement that ‘the American way of life is not up for negotiations’. In short this video is a keeper.”
War already exists and it has existed since at least 1944, although the specific forms have mutated through time.
Inflexibility is a weakness, as is hubris.
The opponents have declared war on the biosphere – “‘the American way of life is not up for negotiations’.” – this was ever the case and the basis of messiahs’ self-defeating proselytising.
The intransigence of the opponents is to be welcomed.
13 October, 2014 13:35
Anonymous Anonymous said…
” In a perfect expression of historical ignorance, they claim the Ukrainians at Donetsk airport should be equated with the defenders of the WW II Brest fortress.”
Perhaps not so historically ignorant – they couldn’t use the Alamo as it would show provenance, Stalingrad and Brody would have unfortunate connotations – one of the reasons the humanitarian convoy started from Moscow oblast instead of Volgograd.
Mythmaking is always expected from the friends of the chocolate maker with big boxes and few chocolates.
13 October, 2014 16:24
The cake lady was likely discussing the Black Sea pivot amongst others.
Wishing and achieving are spelt differently for a reason, and Einstein’s definition of stupidity is valid.
As the adjusted Yiddish saying goes, “May you be blessed with stupid enemies and intelligent friends.
Some information (it was defintly not an “accident”):
“As the result of the investigation the car in which Pavel was at the time of the attack, was found. The car was damage to the right front by the collision with a concrete electricity pylon and four bullet holes were found in the rear of the car, and there was a hole from the bullet in the back tyre. One of the bullets was stuck in the back seat of the car, where Pavel was sitting during the incident. The investigator who conducted the survey, said that Pavel was lucky! According to preliminary estimates, the car was moving at the high speed and probably due to damage to the tyre by a bullet, the car lost control.”
Dr. Jonathan Levy, an atty member of the Internatl Criminal Bar says that Novorossiya meets the legal requirements for statehood. He says:
Novorossiya Must Bring Kiev’s War Criminals to Justice: A Legal Analysis. He further claims that the fact that others do not recognize it is not an insuperable obstacle.
I wonder if they don’t have a better claim to investigate MH-17 too? At least they have access to the wreckage. If Kiev is still shelling the crash site it’s a good reason to take control of a little more territory. They can invite that atty who’s suing Ukraine on behalf of some passengers’ families. The atty and insurer of the plane can bring their own forensics teams.