By Olga Samofalova
Translated by Ollie Richardson and Angelina Siard
cross posted with https://www.stalkerzone.org/ukraine-will-be-able-to-restore-its-economy-only-by-cooperating-with-russia/
Ukraine is beginning to realise the scale of the damage that it caused to itself due to cutting economic ties with Russia. In only five years the country managed to lose about $80 billion and to stop many industrial enterprises. How much time will it need to return to the level of 2013? And under what conditions is this in general possible?
Over the last five years Ukraine lost $75-80 billion from the reduction of trade with Russia, said the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Vadim Novinsky. “Our enterprises that were oriented towards the Russian market and the market of the CIS countries, are just idle,” he noted.
Ukraine needs at least 35 years in order to return the economy to at least the level of 2013, and the main condition for this purpose is the restoration of ties with Russia, assured Novinsky. “It is our neighbour and there is no getting away from it. Throughout centuries it will be our neighbour. It is necessary to live with our neighbour in normal relations – only a bad proprietor lives with a neighbour in a state of constant fighting. A good proprietor is on friendly terms with the neighbour,” summarised the deputy.
After Vladimir Zelensky’s victory in the presidential election the Federation of Employers of Ukraine recognised huge losses from the severance of commercial ties with Russia. In 2018, in comparison with the figures for 2013, it was reduced by more than three times, considered the Director of the Department of Economic Policy of the Federation of Employers of Ukraine Sergey Salivon. “At the same time, our export fell more than four times, import from Russia fell slightly less than three times,” he added.
These calculations do not take into account the Russian gas that is purchased by Ukraine in Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary with surcharges for mediation.
“If to consider that we, after all, buy gas from Russia, then our export to Russia and our import from Russia dropped approximately by $11.5 billion. But $11.5 billion for Russia is less than 0.8% of its GDP, and for Ukraine it is 10% of GDP. I.e., the difference in losses is 13-fold,” noted Salivon. In other words, because of the decline in trade with Russia, Kiev lost 13 times more than Moscow did.
The five-year period of 2014-2018 undoubtedly is a failure for the economy of Ukraine and the citizens of its country, said the economist of “Ukrainian Choice” Aleksandr Koltunovich. The new economic model of integration proposed in 2014 by the EU and the severance of ties with the Russian Federation has not paid off. Thus, as Koltunovich considers, the volume of GDP was reduced from $183.3 billion in 2013 to $112.1 billion in 2017. In terms of economy volume, Ukraine was overtaken even by 10-million [population – ed] Hungary (139 billion).
Even more clear is GDP per capita. In all global rankings Ukraine trudges at the end of the list. Even the countries of North Africa are richer than Ukraine.
“Ukraine is de facto the poorest country in Europe. In terms of GDP per capita we were overtaken by Moldova, and we in turn are above Papua New Guinea. Now Moldova claims 133rd place in the world with $2690 of GDP per capita, and Ukraine is in 134th place with $2660. The GDP per capita of Ukraine is 10.3 times less than the indicator for the countries of Europe ($27,000) and 4.5 times lower than the countries of East Asia ($12,000), and is also lower than North Africa ($3,000). This is what Ukraine really is in economic terms, and this is unacceptable with such a high intellectual and innovation potential,” noted Koltunovich.
In the 1990s Ukraine was among the top-10 most industrialised countries in the world. In 1991 its economy was the 60th best in the world and, according to forecasts of the World Bank, towards the middle of the 2000’s the country was on course to enter the top-10 most developed states in the world. Now it is impossible even to dream of such things.
If after the collapse of the USSR Ukraine was a country with a high industrial and technological potential, then after 2017 its GDP was 61.5% of what it was in 1990, notes the Ukrainian expert. If in 1991 the role of industry accounted for 44% of the GDP of Ukraine, then today it is less than 20%. The specific weight of mechanical engineering in 1990 was 30.5% of the industrial production of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, and now it fell to 14–15%.
After 2014 the legendary aviation company “Antonov”, the major plane-building company “Yuzhmash”, and many other industrial enterprises have passed through the worst of times.
A large-scale social crisis became the result of an economic fiasco, added Koltunovich. Ukraine claimed 7th place in the rating of Bloomberg for the top-10 most unfortunate states of the world. According to the UN, over 60% of its population are below the poverty line. The average monthly salary is only $313, i.e., one third less than it was in 2013 – $409. The minimum pension was reduced in half to $52 per month, whereas in 2013 it was $112.
At the same time, the cost of housing and communal services grew even seven times, domestic gas and heating prices rose even more. Many Ukrainians living in villages are forced to save on heating, in other words, to freeze in their own houses.
It is always simpler to destroy than it is to build again. And without a multi-vector nature of the economic policy it will be impossible to return to the pre-crisis figures.
“Only the restoration of the destroyed cooperation ties with the CIS countries in the hi-tech sectors of industry will allow to increase Ukraine’s volume of export of goods to the CIS markets four times, or for $20 billion – up to $26 billion annually. The deepening of trade and economic ties with the countries of the EEU will allow to further increase Ukraine’s export of goods by $10 billion annually,” considers Koltunovich.
In addition, according to him, it is necessary to review the discriminatory conditions within the framework of the Free Trade Zone with the EU. Integration with the European Union is at an initial stage, it is necessary to move to a new level, to achieve the actual free movement of goods, services, and labour. So far the situation is such that Europeans can deliver to Ukraine any goods in an unlimited number and without duties, whereas for Ukraine there are restrictions in the form of a quota system for the most quick-selling export goods.
Lastly, Ukraine needs to develop its transit potential and trade with the countries of BRICS, SCO, and APEC, rather than focus on Europe alone.
Koltunovich considered that the implementation of these tasks will allow to increase export twofold from the current $43 billion to $80 billion and to increase the volume of GDP by 1.6 times – from the current $112 billion to $180-185 billion.
Ukraine should declare itself a Neutral country, like Switzerland, give up most of its military, get UN protectorate status, sign treaties with all its neighbors. By not spending anything for armaments or operations, just providing a border guard and internal security from the tens of thousands of criminals, it will save billions of dollars.
Becoming neutral Ukraine will entice China to invest heavily in reconstruction.
Facing East instead of West will integrate Ukraine into the EAEU and BRI. It was to be a nexus for transportation.
It will also get its Odessa port expanded (by China).
Of course, this takes real intelligence and insight, and Ukraine has little of either.
I don’t expect Kiev to do much of anything for years to come. They are caught in ideological hatred and micromanaged by Khazarian hegemonists in the State Dept. and CIA. And Ukraine is now thought of as a forward base or launch pad for the US/NATO. They are below vassals, like the EU. They are slaves. Enslaved by their own doing.
Thanks to Ollie and Angelina for the translation.
Ukraine in 2014 showed that it suffered from the post communist syndrome, as I call it. It’s not the only country that suffered from the syndrome. What does it mean ? Quite simply the population imagined that the West was “paradise” when it came to the standard of living, or better said day dreamed about. Most desired to be part of the West. It was this attitude which contributed to the coup d’etat in 2014, although in all fairness not everybody was for it. And the result ? Ukraine adopts a liberal economic model, making the same mistake Russia made under Yeltsin. And the result of that ? The country ended up being plundered by oligarchs and foreign corporations, and now 60% of the population lives in poverty. As one Ukrainian stated in 2018, the vast majority of the population regrets what happened in 2014.
As for Koltunovich, he is under the impression that deepening trade with EU countries will bring Ukraine an additional 10 billion dollars a year. I have difficulty accepting this. What can Ukraine offer the EU in quality, bearing in mind it’s infrastructure is deteriorating ? As far as I can see, only agricultural exports.
However, Koltunovich is right that Ukraine needs to trade withe the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and this also includes the Euro-Asian Economic Union, although he did not mention it. This means Ukraine will have to turn towards the East, something I knew was inevitable. This also means turning to Russia.
Unfortunately for Ukraine, the moment it left the Soviet Union, it’s infrastructure began to decay. As Novinsky stated, it will take Ukraine at least 35 years to return the economy to the level it had in 2013, and this on condition it established a normal relationship with Russia. However, I don’t think Ukraine has 35 years at it’s disposal, as the current situation can only lead to severe social tension and the break up of the country. The bulk of it will eventually be reunited with Russia, western Ukraine being the exception.
I believe that there is a saying in the former Soviet Union that, ‘Everything they told us about socialism was false, but everything they told us about capitalism was true’. At the deepest root capitalism is just greed and fear and hatred of others without restraint. All religions and philosophies worth the name, with one or two exceptions, have long condemned greed as the root of much that is Evil. Today it stands on the brink of its greatest triumph-the destruction of human civilization and quite possibly of humanity itself.
We don’t have capitalism in the west, what we have is Socialism for Global Corporations.
An old argument with which I must disagree. I think that Mussolini’s definition of fascism ie corporatism plus State power, sums up corporate capitalism well. In other words privatised fascism. Socialism, real socialism, must be egalitarian and humanistic, both anathema to capitalism.
“Capitalism” and “Corporate Capitalism” are two different things.
Capitalism resulting in healthy two way trade, with profits at both ends and along the chain is not a bad thing.
Or what can be termed controlled or regulated capitalism, because if you have – by definintion – pure capitalism, then it cares absolutely *nothing* for humans and how they feel, it justs wants maximum profit in the shortest possible time, which means total exploitation.
Another definition of it: The “Great Satan”.
Yes, Tiu, but where and when has that idealised vision of capitalism ever existed? I think you describe trade, a different beast from capitalism, which is simply parasitism.
Accordingly to some source, Mussolini was a commie. It is said, that he slept on the premises of some communist paper. Do not ask me why, what, I do not know more about it. I guess, just like Trump he was dreaming of “MIGA”. You can guess what I stands for. Bad for him, majority of Italian population did not like his plans.
Fascism/Communism, two sides of the same coin. Centralised control of society that in the 20th century conflicts were both financed by the same group of bankers and industrialists – as were their opposition.
Another wee titbit, Bibi’s father was editor for a pro-Fascist paper in Italy.
Some further reading on the topic (yes it is an old idea, but that is neither here nor there)…
“THE RHODES-MILNER GROUP (1891- )
The Outer Circle was known as the ‘Association of Helpers,’ but was not implemented until 1909-1913, when Milner established it as the Round Table organization. Their goal was to eventually establish a one-world government, which would be controlled by the international banking community, under the cloak of Socialism. They saw England, not as a European power, but as an Atlantic power, and wanted to have a federation of the English-speaking world, which would be controlled by them.”
It’s called the profits for the few, the costs for the many (which is what the F-35 is about – and for as long as possible). And of course, when Big Biz (& MIC, MSM etc & which includes most of the ultra rich) joins the Govt, then you have fascism.
I agree, that Ukraine should become like Switzerland, neutral and nonaligned. But not disarmed like it ended up just on the eve of the regime change, the breakaway of Donetzk and Luhansk, and the loss of Crimea. When it was said there were only 6000 combat-ready troops in the whole country.—Ukraine should need a massive citizen armed force, which is, by my understanding, the actual Swiss model. Switzerland is by no means disarmed.—And Ukraine should do everything possible to prevent its territory from becoming a battleground for foreign forces, like it used to be in the past. But it cannot do so under modern reality without a seriously strong military that can enforce the neutral and nonaligned status.
How, anonymoose, do you reach this Nirvana when the country is infested with neo-Nazis, fascists and other revanchist Ukronazi Banderite vermin, and controlled by Zionazi oligarchs? And when the USA will NEVER allow Ukraine to live in peace with Russia until a New Yeltsin is imposed there.
Neutrality for Ukraine sounds great at the first moment. Your economic arguments are indisputable. Russia could regard it as a relief too, militarily. Like big mountains the Ukraine would lay in the way of a possible aggression against Moscow from South-Western directions. Perhaps one should consider a neutrality for Belarus too. Problem with this is: As long as NATO exists no one can count on that they won’t overrun such countries like Germany did with Belgium two times, if they are not sufficiently armed. So you would have to have some special kind of neutrality in this case I think. A militia army like Switzerland has would perhaps be a good choice, it would be in a way very traditional – what else were the Cossack all the centuries? And security treaties with Russia would be necessary. It’s a shame that one has to think about such things in these terms, but there is no way around the security issues of Russia, as long as the USA exists. I always was a “fan” of the ideas of Ernst Jünger’s “Der Waldgang” (don’t know whether there is an English version”), so this idea of an armed neutrality still looks appealing to me. Perhaps every country should consider this.
l seem to remember Pepe Escobar predicting this as soon as the Zio-NATZO putschniks took over. What surprises me is the speed of that country’s collapse — from European SOL to Third World in 5 years. Like the collapse and disintegration of the Soviet Union when Gorbachev opened the door to his AZC carpetbagger friends under peristroika. There`s a lesson in there somewhere. Could it explain the accelerating decline of “the West”: we are no longer immune to the poison we use to consume other countries?
The lesson is that the looters and rapists hate their victims, and not only do not care that others suffer, but are overjoyed by that suffering. The fear, hatred and contempt of others raised to the level of a religion.
Building love costs money, destructive hate is free. So one can see why hate naturally takes the easy way out.
Mulga, you have put your finger on it: hatred. Ever since the destruction of YugoSlavia — and particularly, the dismemberment of Serbia — the Anglo Zio Capitalist bandits have been stirring up ancient hatreds in order to Divide and Rule. Croatia against YugoSlavia stirred up by Germany with NATZO’s Islamic terrorists to the “rescue”; Albanians against Serbs with NATZO helping Muslims terrorists to destroy Christian churches in Kosovo; Roman Catholic Western Ukrainians vs Orthodox Catholic Eastern Ukrainians; Sunni vs Shia to create an “Arc of Instability” across the ME; and now NATZO’s Muslim terrorists have been moved to Burma, to stir up hatred against Buddhists; while Tibetan Buddhism and Uygher Islamism are being groomed to stir up ethnic hatred inside China and “Western” hatred against China; ditto Chechens inside and outside Russia. The Anglo Zios have created George Busch’s New World Order in the image of the Adolf Hitler’s New World Order — Nazism and hate.
I think your remark re book, “Antisemitism the Longest Hatred” is illuminating: yes, that book ought to be re-titled: “Zionazism the Longest Hatred”. I read on a Zionazi website some years ago: “We hate you more than you hate us”. Nor do I forget Solzhenytsin’s version of “200 Years Together”: that it was mainly Jewish Commissars who ordered the destruction of churches in Russia.
The Old Testament is riddled with hate, driven by hate, though with a few prophets from the age of Graeco-Persian enlightenment such as Isaiah, Jeremiah and the author of Ruth, with Rabbi Hillel of Babylon a bit later, all “voices in the wilderness” calling toward The New Testament. This old testament tendency to Ethnic Hatred rather than Universal Love is being channeled, over the past 30-40 years, by the power and wealth of the Bush crime syndicate through their backwoods Jehovist Christianity, and by the Rothschild crime syndicate through plain old Zionazism, flooding a veritable tsunami of hatred across the world.
Quite, Doctor. The Judaisation of Christianity in the West, and in the USA in particular, with the hatreds of the Old Testament/Torah raised up over the doctrine of love and forgiveness of Jesus (who the Talmudists revile)and the Sermon on the Mount etc, is a moral and spiritual catastrophe. You see it in repulsive doctrines like the ‘Gospel of Prosperity’ where greed and self-interest are glorified as ‘rewards’ for the loony Pentecostals and the like, who see their faith as basically an exercise in egotism and hatred of those unlike them. And, of course, the ‘Christian Zionist’ love of the Jews is itself a pretense, the so-called ‘Christians’ only hoping that the creation of Israel will herald their much longed for End Times, in which the Jews will have to convert or be burned in the fire with the rest of humanity. As the expression goes, ‘Jesus wept!’.
The Ukros asked for ”European values”, and got exactly that. Looking back and looking abroad from Ukraine, the closest parallel in history to this kind of deluded, Nazi-infested scum committing treason en masse are the erstwhile Sudeten Germans (forcefully expelled from Czechoslovakia in 1946). However, there is a glaring difference here which is even more telling: The Sudetenland was hit particularly hard by the Great Depression in the 1930s as it was the most industrialized part of Czechoslovakia. Neighbouring Nazi Germany had all but abolished unemployment, and this wasn’t lost on the people right across the border. Now, contrast this with presentday Ukraine, whose ”proud people” were very ready to wreak havoc on the country once Yanukovich saw the light and rejected EU’s colonial diktat.
Now that Crimea is lost forever, so too is the Zionazis’ commitment to Ukraine.
”Ukraine claimed 7th place in the rating of Bloomberg for the top-10 most unfortunate states of the world.”
Yep. Can’t be easy for them to face the fact that they are essentially a bunch of slobs, trashing their vast industrial heritage in exchange for a few crumbs (literally) from the West’s Zionazi Officialdom. To add even more insult to injury, they also proved undeserving of the bribes as they instantly failed to achieve what was expected from them.
Boo-hoo, we’re worthless in the eyes of the West, sob.
GDP-PPP of Ukraine per capita could have easily been $25,000-28,000 with Eurasian and Rusdisia integration. Now its sad low about $9,000. Ukraine has been failed state since 1992.
‘The Revolution of Dignity’ has sure brought the ‘dignity’ of absolute poverty to the poor blighters. What a nightmare it must be to be a decent, sane, humane, non-fascist citizen of Ukraine. A bit like being a similar creature in Austfailia, let me assure you.
If using GDP-PPP Ukraine is 111th last year while 114th 2 years ago. According IMF Ukraine’s GDP-PPP was 9,683 int dollar (2018) while Moldova 7,536. Russia had 30,198 int dollar.
The poor Ukranians are just collateral damage in the Great Work to ensure the Zionazi Empire, through its US Sabbat Goy stooge regime, enjoys total ‘Full Spectrum Dominance’ over all humanity. They ought to be pleased to be laying down their lives and abjuring the basic decencies and comforts in such a Divine Enterprise.
When I read the above statistics I wonder what drives Orthodox Slavic countries to tie their leaking ships to the Nazi EU Titanic? The same above principal applies for my country Serbia where the traitorous so-called elites in 2014 vowed they will honour the memo sent by Brussels where they asked Serbia not to subsidise their exporters to Russia. In turn the exports of finished goods fell by one third.
The zionazi-gays don’t care about the ukrainian economy falling apart, as long as it remains at the minimum level needed to prevent rebellion. They use the ukraine as a tool to hammer at Russia, not as the usual capitalist colony. The ukraine is to remain zionazia’s Afghanistan or Iraq for eastern europe in their strategic planning.
Interestingly, the Zionazis appear unconcerned even with the depopulation of Ukraine. Yes, the Maidan Nazi putsch failed resoundingly where it really mattered (Crimea), but that should have made Western imperialism focus upon bribing mass support along the lines of instant wage hikes to Western European levels, as the Ukros demanded as ”due payback” for their glorious panting, shouting, jumping, drooling, and fighting at the Maidan. Now, their paymasters’ neoliberal greed doesn’t seem to give a hoot about PR; they just happily let Ukraine rot away with its dwindling population. Someday, Russia may decide it’s time to take back her ancient lands before the latter descend into God-knows-what.
Bottom line: Neoliberalism, unlike classical fascism, is unapologetically and utterly elitist all along the line. The Ukros just didn’t get it. The worse for them.
vot tak, this is about the (US) neocon PNAC and the original neocon (jew) wolfowitz doctrine, as stated in the nyt in 1992:
This is a VERY important revelation, and should be archived by everybody who sees this, because it is a forerunner of PNAC, or a forewarning.
Note ‘part of the American mission will be “convincing potential competitors that they need not aspire to a greater role or pursue a more aggressive posture to protect their legitimate interests.” – This is a reference to Russia (and China), which includes Ukraine, and which was used – and is still being used – against Russia like a thorn in the flesh.
Then read about PNAC, wikipedia does a good enough job (last time I looked). It is the Project for the New American Century, which is basically arrogantly and proudly (and insanely) laying claim to the whole of this century as the world being the exclusive domain of the US, to do as it pleases. The wheels have already started to come off in less than 1/5 of that.
PNAC was also responsible for 911 ‘a new Pearl Harbor’ & the blatantly false Iraqi WMDs, as well as the BS about bin laden being responsible for 911, which even the fbi then did NOT – I repeat – did not charge bin laden with for 911 (see its official Most Wanted archive page) – and note that robert mueller was in charge of the fbi when 911 happened…
PNAC-Zionazi ‘neo-conservatives’. ‘New Pearl Harbor’-MOSSAD operation, with assistance from US sayanim and Sabbat Goy allies like Cheney. ‘Clash of Civilizations’-Zionazi omni-hatred and aggression against all civilizations not subservient to the ‘Judeo-Christian’ West. The Oded Yinon Plan-Zionazi blueprint to destroy all Israel’s neighbour, starting with Iraq and Syria. ‘Neo-liberal capitalism’- Zionazi economic doctrine based on the theories of Milton ‘Capitalism is good for the Jews’ Friedman. The looting of the Soviet Union under hyper-Quisling Yeltsin-organised by Harvard Zionazi Jeffrey Sachs, and the benefiting oligarch parasites almost all Zionazis, a fact at first denied as ‘antisemitism’, but then celebrated as proof of Jewish ‘entrepreneurship’. Capone-style. I could go on to boring extent. There seems to be some common factor here, but I can’t quite get my finger on it….
I never thought U.S vs Russia as crucial battle. In America many hope U.S partnership with Russia targeting China. On the other hand Putin’ inner circle including top military strategists are seeing danger because China is trapped and degraded to role of servant of Empire Russia would have real formidable partners left. Now when Trump opened his Barbarossa against China Putin has much more stronger position. This anti China aggression made Russia and China strategic allies and together they are very very strong.
Tass reporting IMF visiting Ukraine today to check out progress…..
IMF = Institution for Misery and Famine. Could well end up in a real Ukro famine like the one of 100 years earlier. To be blamed on Russia/Moscow/The Kremlin/Putin, of course.
Skin-fold tests for Ukrainian children?
Ukraine must be the part of Russia, and the name “Ukraine” will be forbidden.