Today I will begin by quoting in full two posts from the blog of Colonel Cassad (we owe this translation to “SA” who has done it especially for this analysis literally overnight!):

About the intensity of the western “Voentorg”

Instructors from Canada have arrived to train Ukrainian security officers

The authorities of the Donetsk National Republic announce an increase in the number of foreign military instructors in the territory controlled by Ukraine.

- Today there are an immense number of instructors from different countries operating there. For example, 200 people came from Canada, and there are English and others. Now just counting those legally in the Ukrainian territory there are about 1,500 military instructors, who are not themselves fighting, but are instructing and training others. And this does not include illegal instructors, mercenaries, and special agents, – as Speaker of the National Council of the DNR Andrey Purgin described to the correspondent from RG. Judging by his words, foreign experts are conducting training in military science for members of sabotage groups and territorial battalions, who already “have their hands up to the elbow in blood”.

- Also there are mercenaries who are directly fighting on the side of the Ukrainian security officers. Generally they come from Georgia and join territorial battalions, which by the way is absolutely not permitted from the point of view of Ukrainian law. I do not know who is paying their salary. After all generally territorial battalions receive little, live on foraging, and engage in robberies, – says Andrey Purgin .

Let us remember that it was reported earlier that the Ukrainian side threw under Volnovakha 70 American mercenaries from the private US military company Academi.

“According to available data, on the territory controlled by the VSU, specifically in Volnovakha, the presence of 70 representatives of the private military company Academi was revealed. This company was named Blackwater previously”, – said the representative of the Ministry of Defence of DNR Edward Basurin. He also explained that mercenaries from this company carry out the orders of the US State Department at flashpoints, and are engaged in arms trafficking.

PS. Gradually there is a natural increase in foreign military presence, in light of the fact that the situation more and more clearly begins to remind one of scenarios like the Korean War. Just as in the case of Russian support of the DNR and LNR, the American “Voentorg” operation with support of allies and satellites, has two levels – legal and illegal.

At the legal level we observe:

1. The appearance of Instructors, who train officers and staff within the story about “doctrines” and “staff preparation”.
2. Information transfer from the American satellite group “allegedly with restricted clearance”.
3. Deliveries of outfits (uniforms, bullet-proof vests, {razgruzki}, helmets).
4. Deliveries of special devices (thermal visors, night vision devices, target indicators)
5. Deliveries of special equipmente (countermortar radar, REB devices, armored vehicles)
6. Concentration in Eastern Europe of mechanized units of the army of the USA.

At the illegal level we observe:

1. The active operation of private military companies (Academi, ASBA Otago, Greystone, Green Groop)
2. Illegal deliveries of small arms from Eastern and Western Europe.
3. Illegal deliveries of armored equipment from Eastern Europe.
4. Development of information and reconnaissance infrastructure on the basis of being state agencies of the Ukraine or under cover of the international organizations of the OSCE type.
5. Operation of instructors and military advisers whose presence in Ukraine is not officially announced and not revealed.

From what does not yet have obvious confirmations:

1. Artillery deliveries from countries of Eastern Europe.
2. Armored equipment deliveries from countries of Western Europe.

Basic channels of distribution of foreign military influence:

1. Airfields of Southeast Ukraine on which supply and transfer of special staff is engaged by military transport aircraft of the USA.
2. Railway junctions of Western Ukraine through which pass transit units with arms and ammunition from Eastern Europe.
3. Airfields of Central and Western Ukraine to which are delivered legal deliveries of equipment and technique, and as the legalized staff – instructors, “inspectors”, and “observers”.
4. The Odessa port is used for illegal arms supplies by sea, as well as for illegal arms traffic.

The primary countries involved in military support to the junta: USA and Poland.

The primary objectives which the military support achieves, is enhancing the level of fighting capacity of the VSU and the controllability of the progress of the war. Therefore the basic structural changes for VSU are associated not so much with deliveries of arms (which as a rule are outdated), but with a change of organizational logistics, reconnaissance, information, and command structures, which should increase the effectiveness of operations of the VSU.

Overall, the situation with foreign military man presence continues to develop and becomes more and more systemic. The fruits of the foreign “voentorg” operation may begin to be evident by July-August. At this stage the interior transformation of the VSU is in process and goes rather slowly due to irregularity of organizational structures and low level of command structures, to which is added a high level of corruption, misunderstanding by a considerable portion of the officer corps of the requirements of modern warfare, low level of technical preparation of staff when operating with unfamiliar technology. But one should not be deceived, these are problems which are surmountable to a certain extent, and with which military advisers and instructors are now properly engaged. As a result, the USA and its allies are trying to remake the army of the junta in the course of the war for its own needs and in order to resolve the necessary issues. For this reason they must not be at war on the front line, and therefore at this stage of war, you will hardly see the American Marines or any mechanized unit in the first line. They can appear only in hardened scenarios in the Ukraine section.

For now, “semi-legal voentorg” is sufficient, which in principle reflects the line of Obama’s administration for long-term opposition without direct military involvement of the USA. Hawks wish to add to the above-stated points open delivery of American lethal weaponry and more active involvement of the Pentagon in this war. This all proceeds against the background of low and medium-intensity fighting (both sides are actively using heavy artillery and tanks), which in fact began on April 12, and I do not think this will stop, since even the very first point on a “ceasefire” is de facto not being carried out. One must not even speak of the “withdrawal of heavy arms”. As a whole, the foreign military presence will gradually the nature of the ongoing war, which will become more and more systematic, organized, and centralized, from both sides. It is already not a war of semi-deployed VSU with the militia. This is a war of regular armies, trained and continuing to be trained by military advisers and instructors.

Situation on the front as of April 23rd

 1. Military operations as before are low-intensity on most of the front, and medium-intensity in a number of sites – Bakhmutka, Peski, and now also under Schastye. High-intensity military operations are primarily under Shirokino, where practically the entire spectrum of arms is being used.

2. Shellings of cities continue, and first of all the front regions of Donetsk are exposed to junta artillery attacks. There are no serious[ly injured] victims among the civilian population. Although the shellings are systematic, their intensity varies from mid-range to low.

3. DNR military intelligence has reported that concentration of junta groupings is complete and they are prepared for approach. The basic areas of concentration of the battle groups are all the same – no substantive changes in location of the opponent were noted.  No withdrawal of heavy weapons is recorded, quite the opposite.

4. For about a week the VSN is in a state of heightened combat readiness, and a considerable proportion of heavy equipment is already moved into position. In the LNR, engineering operations at sites of possible VSU attacks are continuing.

Overall, after medium-intensity large-scale operations resumed April 12, the sides have continued preparatory work for high-intensity large-scale operations against the background of diplomatic maneuvering, and this is not a secret to both sides, who regularly accuse each other that the enemy is beginining to attack first.

Analysis:

There is very little doubt left in anybody’s mind that the junta will resume a full-scale attack on Novorussia.  Likewise, it appears that any hopes for a weakening of the US and/or European support for the Nazi junta are now dead.  If the long string of murders of political opponents including a well-known and iconic figure like Oles Buzina shocked *nobody* (least of all the millions of European “Charlies”!) then probably nothing will.  Furthermore, there are no signs of another “Maidan” which could topple the junta.  Yes, there are protests here and there, but nothing which could seriously threaten the regime.  To the contrary, all the signs are indicating that the US is holding the Ukraine in a very firm grip and that the predictable US plan is to restart a full scale war between the Nazi-occupied Ukraine and Novorussia with the option to involve Russia (which has been the plan all along).

The regime is clearly “going for broke” and not even pretending to solve any of the innumerable problems of Nazi-occupied Ukraine.  Both Poroshenko and the Ukie Rada, apparently, are spending all their time and efforts into further provoking Russia, by seriously discussing a law to nationalize all Russian assets in the Ukraine, re-writing history books, adopting resolutions saying that Russia has invaded the Ukraine, etc.  Nazi death squads, now trained by the USA, are now supposedly crucifying and burning “separatists” alive, while the US Gauleiter in Kiev tweets photos of Russian air defense system taking in Moscow in 2013, as proof of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

In the meantime, the US is doing exactly what it always does: it sends in US forces to train local death squads while building a “coalition of the willing” (US+UK+Canada+Poland), to do with no form of mandate or permission, that which it could not get approved legally (by the UN or even by NATO!).  It appears that the debate inside the US “deep state” about the risks of the current strategy is over and that the Neocons have prevailed.

In practical terms this means that we are back to “square 1″: the question is now “can Novorussia withstand the Nazi onslaught alone with only the help of the “Voentorg” and “Northern Wind” or will Russia be forced to intervene?

Honestly?  I don’t know.  And neither does anybody else.

By all accounts, the junta forces have become better but so have the Novorussians.  Zakharchenko has announced that the recent voluntary mobilization was successful at 110% of the expected, which sounds very good, in particular with only volunteers, but it does not really tell us if Novorussia will have the 100’000 men under arms, by June, as was promised by the same Zakharchenko.  Also, there appears to be a lack of equipment for such a large force, but then again, judging by what happened earlier this winter, we can expect the Russian Voentorg to fully open it’s spigot, as soon as the Russian intelligence services conclude that an Nazi attack is inevitable.

Now, let’s be honest here, the “military aid” offered by the “USUKCNDPL” coalition, is bordering on useless, as is the gear shipped so far, to the the junta forces.  This “assistance” is much more about appearing to be doing something grand than actually getting anything done.  Not only does it take a lot of time to train any force, (un-)natural selection has done a much better job than any US “advisor” to increase the quality of the junta forces.  Still, the advantage in morale and tactical skills should remain on the Novorussian side.

Always keep in mind that the real goal of the next Ukronazi offensive will not be to defeat Novorussia, but to pull Russia in and then be defeated by Russia. Such a defeat at the hands of the Russian military will probably provide NATO with a justification for its existence for the next 50 years and completely crush any European desires to rid itself from the EU’s current status of “voiceless US colony”.  Should that happen, the much awaited “new Cold War” will be again in full swing, the US military-industrial complex in complete bliss and the US population suitably “re-terrified” by the next “global enemy”.

There are some indications that more and more European politicians are beginning to understand the risks, but they are too weak to meaningfully oppose the AngloZionist hegemony.

Having a war in Europe on a regular basis has always been the linchpin of British foreign policy and this “tradition” has been fully passed on to the US “successor empire” (which immensely benefited from both WWI and WWII).  What the Americans want is plainly simple: a major war in Europe, but also one contained to Europe.

War therefore appears to be inevitable.  How big it will be now only depends on women and men defending Novorussia against the Ukronazis.

The Saker

The Essential Saker: from the trenches of the emerging multipolar world