The unipolar moment is six feet under, the hegemon will try to break Eurasian integration and there’s no grownup in the room to counsel restraint
By Pepe Escobar, posted with permission and first posted at Asia Times
Let’s start with comic relief: the “leader of the free world” has pledged to prevent China from becoming the “leading” nation on the planet. And to fulfill such an exceptional mission, his “expectation” is to run again for president in 2024. Not as a hologram. And fielding the same running mate.
Now that the “free world” has breathed a sigh of relief, let’s return to serious matters – as in the contours of the Shocked and Awed 21st Century Geopolitics.
What happened in the past few days between Anchorage and Guilin continues to reverberate. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stressed that Brussels “destroyed” the relationship between Russia and the EU, he focused on how the Russia-China comprehensive strategic partnership is getting stronger and stronger.
Not so casual synchronicity revealed that as Lavrov was being properly hosted by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Guilin – scenic lunch in the Li river included -, US Secretary of State Tony Blinken was visiting NATO’s James-Bondish HQ outside Brussels.
Lavrov made it quite clear that the core of Russia-China revolves around establishing an economic and financial axis to counterpunch the Bretton Woods arrangement. That implies doing everything to protect Moscow and Beijing from “threats of sanctions by other states”; progressive de-dollarization; and advances in crypto-currency.
This “triple threat” is what is unleashing the Hegemon’s unbounded fury.
On a broader spectrum, the Russia-China strategy also implies that the progressive interaction between the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) will keep apace across Central Asia, Southeast Asia, parts of South Asia, and Southwest Asia – necessary steps towards an ultimately unified Eurasian market under a sort of strategic Sino-Russo management.
In Alaska, the Blinken-Sullivan team learned, at their expense, that you don’t mess with a Yoda such as Yang Jiechi with impunity. Now they’re about to learn what it means to mess with Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Russian Security Council.
Patrushev, as much a Yoda as Yang Jiechi, and a master of understatement, delivered a not so cryptic message: if the US created “though days” for Russia, as they “are planning that, they can implement that”, Washington “would be responsible for the steps that they would take”.
What NATO is really up to
Meanwhile, in Brussels, Blinken was enacting a Perfect Couple routine with spectacularly inefficient head of the European Commission (EC) Ursula von der Leyen. The script went something like this. “Nord Stream 2 is really bad for you. A trade/investment deal with China is really bad for you. Now sit. Good girl.”
Then came NATO, which put on quite a show, complete with an all-Foreign Minister tough guy pose in front of the HQ. That was part of a summit – which predictably did not “celebrate” the 10th anniversary of NATO’s destruction of Libya or the major ass-kicking NATO “endured” in Afghanistan.
In June 2020, NATO’s cardboard secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg – actually his US military handlers – laid out what is now known as the NATO 2030 strategy, which boils down to a Global Robocop politico-military mandate. The Global South has (not) been warned.
In Afghanistan, according to a Stoltenberg impervious to irony, NATO supports infusing “fresh energy into the peace process”. At the summit, NATO ministers also discussed Middle East and Northern Africa and – with a straight face – looked into “what more NATO could do to build stability in the region”. Syrians, Iraqis, Lebanese, Libyans, Malians would love to learn something about that.
Post-summit, Stoltenberg delivered a proverbially somnolent press conference where the main focus was – what else – Russia, and its “pattern for repressive behavior at home, aggressive behavior abroad”.
All the rhetoric about NATO “building stability” vanishes when one examines what’s really behind NATO 2030, via a meaty “recommendation” report written by a bunch of “experts”
Here we learn the three essentials:
1. “The Alliance must respond to Russian threats and hostile actions (…) without a return to ‘business as usual’ barring alterations in Russia’s aggressive behavior and its return to full compliance with international law.”
2. China is depicted as a tsunami of “security challenges”: “The Alliance should infuse the China challenge throughout existing structures and consider establishing a consultative body to discuss all aspects of Allies’ security interests vis-à-vis China”. The emphasis is to “defend against any Chinese activities that could impact collective defense, military readiness or resilience in the Supreme Allied Commander Europe’s (SACEUR) Area of Responsibility.”
3. “NATO should outline a global blueprint (italics mine) for better utilizing its partnerships to advance NATO strategic interests. It should shift from the current demand-driven approach to an interest-driven approach (italics mine) and consider providing more stable and predictable resource streams for partnership activities. NATO’s Open Door Policy should be upheld and reinvigorated. NATO should expand and strengthen partnerships with Ukraine and Georgia.”
Here’s to The Triple Threat. Yet the Top of the Pops – as in fat, juicy industrial-military complex contracts – is really here:
The most profound geopolitical challenge is posed by Russia. While Russia is by economic and social measures a declining power, it has proven itself capable of territorial aggression and is likely to remain a chief threat facing NATO over the coming decade.
NATO may be redacting, but the master script comes straight from the Deep State – complete with Russia “seeking hegemony”; expanding Hybrid War (the concept was actually invented by the Deep State); and manipulating “cyber, state-sanctioned assassinations, and poisonings – using chemical weapons, political coercion, and other methods to violate the sovereignty of Allies.”
Beijing for its part is using “force against its neighbors, as well as economic coercion and intimidatory diplomacy well beyond the Indo-Pacific region. Over the coming decade, China will likely also challenge NATO’s ability to build collective resilience.”
The Global South should be very much aware of NATO’s pledge to save the “free world” from these autocratic evils.
The NATO interpretation of “South” encompasses North Africa and the Middle East, in fact everywhere from sub-Saharan Africa to Afghanistan. Any similarity with the presumably defunct “Greater Middle East” concept of the Dubya era is not an accident.
NATO insists this vast expanse is characterized by “fragility, instability, and insecurity” – of course refusing to disclose its own role as serial instability perpetrator in Libya, Iraq, parts of Syria and Afghanistan.
Because ultimately…it’s all Russia’s fault: “To the South, the challenge includes the presence of Russia and to a lesser extent China, exploiting regional fragilities. Russia has reinserted itself in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. In 2015, it intervened in the Syrian Civil War and remains there. Russia’s Middle East policy is likely to exacerbate tensions and political strife across the region as it extends an increasing amount of political, financial, operational, and logistical assets to its partners. China’s influence across the Middle East is also growing. It signed a strategic partnership with Iran, is the largest importer of crude oil from Iraq, wedged itself into the Afghanistan peace process, and is the biggest foreign investor in the region.”
Here, in a nutshell, and not exactly in code, is the NATO road map all the way to 2030 to harass and try to dismantle every relevant nook and cranny of Eurasia integration, especially those directly linked to New Silk Roads infrastructure/connectivity projects (investment in Iran, reconstruction of Syria, reconstruction of Iraq, reconstruction of Afghanistan).
The spin is on a “360-degree approach to security” that will “become an imperative”. Translation: NATO is coming for large swathes of the Global South, big time, under the pretense of “addressing both the traditional threats emanating from this region like terrorism and new risks, including the growing presence of Russia, and to a lesser extent China.”
Hybrid war on two fronts
And to think that in a not so distant past there used to be some flashes of lucidity emanating from the US establishment.
Very few will remember that in 1993 James Baker, former Secretary of State under Daddy Bush, advanced the idea of expanding NATO to Russia, which at the time, under Yeltsin and a gang of Milton Friedmanesque free marketeers, was devastated, but ruled by “democracy”. Yet Bill Clinton was already in power, and the idea was duly discarded.
Six years later, no less than George Kennan – who invented the containment of the USSR in the first place – determined that the NATO annexation of former Soviet satellites was “the beginning of a new Cold War” and “a tragic mistake”.
It’s immensely enlightening to relieve and re-study the whole decade between the fall of the USSR and the election of Putin to the presidency through the venerable Yevgeny Primakov’s book Russian Crossroads: Toward the New Millenium, published in the US by Yale University Press.
Primakov, the ultimate intel insider who started as a Pravda correspondent in the Middle East, former Foreign Minister and also Prime Minister, looked closely into Putin’s soul, repeatedly, and liked what he saw: a man of integrity and a consummate professional. Primakov was a multilateralist avant la lettre, the conceptual instigator of RIC (Russia-India-China) which in the next decade evolved towards BRICS.
Those were the days – exactly 22 years ago – when Primakov was on a plane to Washington when he picked up a call by then Vice-President Al Gore: the US was about to start bombing Yugoslavia, a slav-orthodox Russian ally, and there was nothing the former superpower could do about it. Primakov ordered the pilot to turn around and fly back to Moscow.
Now Russia is powerful enough to advance its own Greater Eurasia concept, which moving forward should be balancing – and complementing – China’s New Silk Roads. It’s the power of this Double Helix – which is bound to inevitably attract key sectors of Western Europe – that is driving the Hegemon’s ruling class dazed and confused.
Glenn Diesen, author of Russian Conservatism: Managing Change Under Permanent Revolution, which I analyzed in Why Russia is Driving the West Crazy , and one of the best global analysts of Eurasia integration, summed it all up: “The US has had great difficulties in terms of converting the security dependence of the allies into geoeconomic loyalty, as evident by the Europeans still buying Chinese technologies and Russian energy.
Hence permanent Divide and Rule, featuring one of its key targets: cajole, force, bribe and all of the above for the European Parliament to scotch the China-EU trade/investment deal.
Wang Yiwei, director of the Center for European Studies at Renmin University and author of the best made in China book about the New Silk Roads, clearly sees through the “America is back” bluster: “China is not isolated by the US, the West or even the whole international community. The more hostility they show, the more anxiety they have. When the US travels around the globe to frequently ask for support, unity and help from its allies, this means US hegemony is weakening.”
Wang even forecasts what may happen if the current “leader of the free world” is prevented from fulfilling his exceptional mission: “Don’t be fooled by the sanctions between China and the EU, which is harmless to trade and economic ties, and EU leaders won’t be that stupid to totally abandon the China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, because they know they would never get such a good deal when Trump or Trumpism returns to the White House.”
Shocked and Awed 21st Century Geopolitics, as configured in these crucial past two weeks, spells out the Unipolar Moment is six feet under. The Hegemon will never admit it; hence the NATO counterpunch, which was pre-designed. Ultimately, the Hegemon has decided not to engage in diplomatic accommodation, but to wage a hybrid war on two fronts against a relentlessly demonized strategic partnership of peer competitors.
And as a sign of these sorry times, there’s no James Baker or George Kennan to advise against such folly.
Well, at least all the cards are all on the table now. No 20’th century poker face standoff this time around. Uncle Schmuel’s pushing all his chips in, in one final blaze of win or go home broke glory. Someone keep an eye on all those WMD’s he’s got stuffed in his socks please! The old boy ain’t been playing with a full deck lately!
That certainly could happen. Uncle Schmuel is desperate…
He’s already nuked the USA on 9/11 and gotten away with it, but now the rest of the world is onto him. The Sampson Option may not be enough of a threat to avoid Israel being turned into a pool of molten glass before they can launch their pitifully few nukes… Let’s hope so.
Tommy, I wish I could be so confident. I strongly suspect the nukes are already in place in the embassies of the various countries Israel has a grudge against. They could never “deliver” the nukes by plane of rocket, so they are stationed already where they can do the most damage. Pity Israel after the strike, however…..
Describing Israel’s Samson Option, the Israeli poet Itamar Yaoz-Kest wrote, “And yet, there is a right reserved only to us [Ashkenazim] (if indeed any human on Earth has this right): to be destroyed and to take the weary and sated world with us into non-existence, along with its wondrous libraries and heart-stirring tunes – just so, after we descend to the grave, while the ground emits radioactive rays to all four winds…”
Uncle Schmuel has no choice but to place all of his chips on the table, as he is in serious trouble. Not only does the US have a huge foreign debt, it also has a gigantic internal debt which – apparently – few Americans know exists (even university professors are not sure how large it really is). On top of that the dollar is printed backed by nothing, as is the euro. Countries are beginning to discard the dollar, using domestic currencies. Uncle Schmuel thus resorts to applying some more imperial policies, the aim being to gratify the globalists (private banks and corporations) by pursuing a unipolar world. The Russians and Chinese repond with a multipolar world, and hence we have the present conflict between the US on the one hand and Russia and China on the other hand. As for NATO, it has been given the role of the French Foreign Legion, to be used for dirty work, although it would be more correct to call it the Praetorian Guard of private bankers,
And how will this end ? When Uncle Schmuel collapses.
“to harass and try to dismantle every relevant nook and cranny of Eurasia integration”
Not surprising at all.
Eurasia integration means that roughly 90% of the World trade will pass under that frame (BRI, etc).
Which means that most goods, services and payments will ultimately be beyond the Western power’s control
Which means that Western countries will have to trade goods and energy in currencies other than their own’s.
Which means that they will need to run trade surpluses in order to get those monies needed to get basic staples and manufactured goods that they don’t produce any more
Which means that they will have either to reduce huge Defense spending and consume much less than usual in order to not get those trade deficits.
Which means that the traditional, socially-agreed concept of society of mass consumption that held peace to these countries won’t be sustainable anymore.
Which means that the leadership in place and the elites will be sooner or later replaced, which… is what they ultimately fear.
Well said Andres.
Middle East Monitor forecasts result in oncoming trial of strength. The US guards the Western end of a putative Northwest Passage for Chinese vessels to get into the North Atlantic and beyond. Moreover, China’s Belt and Road Initiative also seeks maritime links into the Mediterranean. **None of this will be possible if Beijing does not acknowledge US geopolitical supremacy**.
There are two words for “tea”: ” teax if the trade route was by sea, “cha” if the trade route was by land. Fully agree the US will want the ability to block China’s trade. Sure, the US is able to block some sea passage; but the US is too small to block the land route over Russia.
Is the US capable of blockading major sea passages? Yes, technically. But doing that to China is a whole different story than blockading Venezuela, Syria or N Korea.
There will be prices to be paid, and the US public is not capable of doing so. In the current confrontational climate, I doubt if they can even keep up blockading Iran, Lebanon and Syria.
Red lines are being drawn, and would the exceptional nation dare to cross it?
Would that not quickly lead to http://thesaker.is/thinking-the-unthinkable/
The thalassocratic rule become impossible when heartland tellurocracy dominates. Yes, the imperial navy may stop the ships of heartland – but this only hastens the demise of the thalassocratic forces, which have already lost military superiority and strategic initiative (Martyanov)
Of course the imperial avenues are already crowded with illiterate and poverty stricken…the money worthless, the ruling cadres incompetent. (If you doubt this, read Jill Biden’s “dissertation”!!)
Thus inevitable defeat abroad and discord at the base…
For Russia this is a calamity in slow motion, as without a responsible north american polity Russia will be subsumed by China.
As in the last “civil war”, Russia must effectively “save” america to save herself. Long term, the same is true for China. Now, however, is not yet the time…
The “election” of the ambitious but feckless female and the vacuous corpse may be seen as a strong indicator, however, that the collapse and fracturing of NA is not too far in the future. Trump was a wrecking ball, these people are perhaps arsonists?
My question, a practical one, is whether the MP’s on the streets of NA are going to be Chinese or Slavic, or both…this is vital – I have to buy the right flags to welcome them.
The 25 year comprehensive cooperation agreement, China and Iran, has just been formally signed.
Wow! USD 400 billion. That should set the entire pandemic-sickened world, the global South including Africa, South America, South-East Asia, India and a large number of ‘western’ countries clamoring to Beijing to cut similar deals. Especially the BRI countries.
At an equivalent of USD16 billion per year – that should underwrite the development of Iran’s economy to developed status at the end of 25 years.
And Uncle Shmuel’s USD 3 trillion infrastructure plans – that will remain just a dream without China’s help.
Lots of pain, mass suffering….lots of tears…coming for America. There will be no morphine….no Fantasy Football to take the pain away. No more conversations about Fantasy Football draft picks. Everyone goes quiet. But I think this will be a good thing.
What is going on is what you would expect from a Clown Show. Biden wants America to build our own BRI equivalent to China-Russia’s BRI. Maybe he could build a Bridge from Maine to Liverpool. He is running a Clown Show.
Pepe, you have to remember who is the real power behind the Anglo-Zionist Empire. If it isn’t Likud and the Kosher Nostra who Trump was beholden too, it’s AIPAC and the US neocons that Biden is. US neocons have a long history with Russia, all of it antagonistic. This goes way back to 965 when Sviatoslav I destroyed the Khazar city of Sarkel and its capital of Atil in the Caspian Expeditions of the Rus’. A visitor to Atil wrote soon after Sviatoslav’s campaign: “The Rus’ attacked, and no grape or raisin remained, not a leaf on a branch.”
The Khazars went on to become the Ashkenazim who hated Russia with a passion, especially now that the Russians are messing up their big plans for “Greater Israel” in Syria and Iraq. That’s why Biden still must contend with the likes of Victoria Nuland whose cookies and support for NAZI trash help stage the 2014 coup in Ukraine, the old Khazar stomping ground. His initial impulse to reinstate the Iranian nuclear deal will never happen because of the continued neocon antipathy to both Iran and Russia.
The Ashkenazim gave us 9/11 and even predicted it in 1998 with the PNAC manifesto that required “some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor – to happen, and it did. I won’t go on to say that Israel nuked us on 9/11 and got away with it, as that would only make my comment disappear on this site as has happened before, but it is not wrong to say that every American president since has had to dance around that horrible truth, including Trump and Biden.
I wonder exactly when it is that serious candidates get “the briefing?” Surely they have to let them know before they win the election, lest they’re too faint hearted to bear the truth. I would think most beltway vets pick up on it unofficially “through the grapevine” well before that to ease the transition. But for instance, do you think Tulsi Gabbard, notorious for her calls on roll backs for Pentagon budgets and foreign policies, could possibly know, given that knowing the facts also means knowing what these bastards are capable of in every other sphere to anyone who threatens them as well? There’s simply no reforming such an abominable horror show.
Oh me, oh my… Too bad no one on this site agrees with us. Christian Zionists in the USA, and on this site, are Trump’s rock-solid base. He was their ticket to the Rapture, so of course he “won” the election no matter how many votes he actually got. As the chairman of the Republican Party of New Mexico, Steve Pearce, said back in December, “[Trump] is our president FOREVER and no one can take that away from us.” You simply can’t reason with that kind of logic.
Yep. New Mexico is a USAF (2 or 3, depending on if you count Kirtland ANG) and Nuclear Labs (2!) state (we could probably become a minor nuclear power with what we have on hand if we seceded), so our politics predictably skews hardline weird. The gen pop, most of whom would be destitute otherwise, has been bought off by the federal money such pursuits have brought in. Steve Pearce was and is a pandering numb nut.
But, he’s a true believer… And, a Christian Zionist. Fortunately, mail-in voting will make his political expiration date come due in 2022. As his pal Lindsey Graham said after the last election, “If we don’t do something about voting by mail, we are going to lose the ability to elect a Republican in this country.” I have to agree with him.
Being a Christian Zionist or sympathizer/sycophant is pretty much a requirement for seeking higher political office in the US today no matter which party you’re affiliated with. Two flavors of the same basic substance, all of them in it for the money and all that goes with it. The Ds are riding the youth demographic wave at the moment. The Rs will come roaring back in due course as those same youth grow older and naturally more conservative. I remember all too well predicting that the Ds were extinct in 2004 when the Sheeple lined up to vote for the proven war criminals Bush/Cheney again. Wrong as I could be. Now it looks like it’s going the other way. But it won’t for long. Both parties need each other to play off of. Being a D or R only has meaning in relation to what the other party is or is not doing. Without the other side to play off of, the remaining party would be exposed for the criminals that they are. It’s a gigantic game of blame the other guys for every thing that your party is failing to do. That’s why they can’t let a legitimate third party ever get started to upset that dynamic. They’ll fight it to the death.
You have to remember, Zionism is a death cult. As the Anglo-Zionist Empire takes on water and sinks like the Titanic, they have the Samson Option just like Israel has. They will not go into that dark night without taking the rest of humanity with it.
Oh yes, I realize that all too well. Apocalyptic mythology is part and parcel of the Christian Zionist zeitgeist. I grew up listening to that crap until I was old enough to break free.
Now some of your comments like this one are really excellent 👍
many names . Sabbatean frankists comes to mind. lots of literature on them to be informed
So much to read, so little time…
A good overview of the global situation in this article. It immediately raises the first question, is the “Great Reset” theory history? The great reset propagandists were promoting a theory that all nations will come together under one global umbrella organization. This is no longer happening in the short term as China, Russia, Iran and other nations want to be sovereign.
This is further validated by the Swiss Federal Intelligence Service report stating, “the future world order will no longer be dominated by the US, its system of alliances, and institutions under strong American influence. The currently evolving changes in the international system will continue… The US’s challengers on the geopolitical stage will attempt to benefit from this and will seek to expand their power and assert their own interests in areas of waning US influence.”
This report of the Federal Intelligence Service published on 27 October 2020 is available here: https://www.newsd.admin.ch/newsd/message/attachments/63415.pdf.
Max, I forget how many times I said this already on the Saker Blog, but its been a few :-) So, at this stage, my language gets colorful but I’ll try to contain myself.
The WEF is not an executive body. They do nothing. They are a talk shop. They worked on a plan consisting of very pretty pictures, and extensive website, a lot of modelling that looks very fancy, and a lot of hot air that sounds oh so good. And some of the western poodles repeated that. The Great Reset was something that all the alternative press (which we should sort out very carefully as to who is who and what they say these days) went on a gallop with. Charles Schwab is an ugly old man (deep Nazi roots, so the ones that know tell me) who spent some money on pretty pictures and a few highly advertised get-togethers of the usual – Prince Charles for example, all the old names in the climate scam, and World Bank and IMF and those kinds of failing organizations. The Schwabby has no executive power.
Presidents Putin, Xi Jinping and others in the breakaway sphere did not say one word about this. In fact, they did not even mention the words. I actually laid some bets on the table (always for icecream) that you will not hear the term from the Global South or from Russia or from any of the resistance axis. I won all the icecreams :-)
They ignored it, as it should be. It is a fairy story that some countries will try to implement. It will fail. Catherine Austin Fitts considers it a sleight of hand and she says rather the western sphere (or as she calls it, Mr Global) is busy with a whole other sleight of hand. Even Brazil said that it is and I think they used the word nonsense or something like that.
We need a financial economic reset. But, it will not be Schwabs Great Reset, unless some really insane countries try to implement it. It would rather be countries starting more trade in local currencies and an ongoing devaluation of the Petro Dollar.
There already are signs and signals in the world for another kind of reset. This one is called the Great Concert of Powers and it almost looks like suing for peace, or suing for inclusion – from the western thinktanks. Good luck to that. Our world has materially changed. The balance of power is changing bit by bit, daily.
Amarynth, agree with you on “the Great Reset.” I too have been saying the same thing.
Also, agree that we need a financial economic reset in suzerainties captured by the Global Financial Oligarchy (GFO). The most important question is HOW. China has successfully built its economy on the public-private partnership (25%-75% of its economy) model and won’t want to change its structure as it is succeeding well. However, to the best of my knowledge, no time in history a nation has changed internally its financial system without a revolution and externally without a war.
The GFO that has worked for centuries to build a global financial empire isn’t going to just walk away. Also, its managers like Henry Kissinger, George Soros,… are old. Won’t they want to see success of their life? Will they accept their loss & defeat? This is the 64,000 question. Which faction will they sacrifice?
The GFO knows that its financial system is failing and falling apart. They’re already at work at INET to define new economic theories so they can control our world like they did in 1945. Nations, economists and many entities are opposing and exposing them. Even at various monetary conferences the establishment players openly talk about a need for a better financial system. What happens to the existing debt? These discussions have been going on over the last decade. Also, when a global financial system is changed the nation with the reserve currency status suffers the most, unless it manages well. Don’t forget the Triffin’s dilemma. A better way would be for each nation to define its financial system and manage it well.
What will be the value and demand for the US$ without petrodollars? The existing Dollar/Financial Empire’s plan calls for it to capture all global natural resources, including those of Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Brazil… and price them in its currency. The Empire hasn’t given up on its plan and is working to make it successful. Yes, the balance of power is changing and it is getting interesting!
Here is a good expose of GFO’s ploys :
I think the dollar is being left out from a new global monetary system.
And the reaction is higher prices for big ticket items here in the U.S., that’s where the rubber meets the road as political heads butt in a never ending game of blame.
Soros the Orc and Kissmyasskissinger will follow their friend Adelson this year
All these old and evil man getting to their expirationdates😎
And I’m loving it
2021 will be a great year with a great reset
Just not the kind of reset Schwab had in his nightmares
To force a global reset you need a very big gun, the GFO’s gun is getting smaller by the day. Only option is to sit at the negotiating table or be left behind (me think).
Forget about the “Great Reset” and other theoretical bull-trash. Go and cut an Iranian-like deal with China to solve all your economic woes!
This is the great development rush of the 21st century. I expect Uncle Shmuel to join in the rush soon in one way or another!
The Financial Empire could have been challenged a decade ago. However, it was strong then and controlled the pillars of power (media, monetary, technology, governance… ) enabling it to make a comeback. Each of its pillars has been crumbling and falling on its own in the last decade! Also, alternative pillars have been developed by 2020! It is essential to have these alternate pillars in place so there is no dependency on Empire’s power in the future. It has a history of contracting and expanding to increase its power. This time those mistakes won’t be repeated and it will contract completely. Its guns have been neutralized!
With regards to the US dollar it will devalue. The U.S. has DEFAULTED through devaluations in the past century. In 1933 it devalued by 41%, in 1971 by 30%. It has been defaulting through QEs since 2008. Its situation is different from that of Japan and the EU, as these entities have trade surplus. The U.S. has been running trade deficits since 1970s. It is nations with positive trade balance like China, Germany, Russia, … that will shape the multilateralism order.
There is inflation and deflation in some sectors of the economy. The sectors like housing, stocks,… that were inflating will deflate and those like consumer goods, technology… that were deflating will inflate. This will result in many structural changes in the economies.
One month ago (February 26), President Biden declared that “Crimea is Ukraine.”
Now we read two days ago (March 25), the U.S. has shipped tons of military hardware through the Black Sea and made port in Odessa, Ukraine.
The unloading process will take a couple of days and you can bet analysts in the Crimean Federal District of the Russian Federation will be counting each piece and determining the tactical capabilities of the shipment as well as where the hardware will be stored.
I don’t believe this is a staging effort against Crimea itself (that would be suicide) but it appears it is in preparation for greater conflict against the heroes of Donbass.
Holy Pascha is 36 days away and I pray and hope for the suffering people of that region.
Да защитит их Бог.
You seem to be quite knowledgeable
about the WEF and Charles Schwab, as you write. However, Charles Robert Schwab (born July 29, 1937) is an American investor and financial executive.
Are you just a bit confused here?
Perhaps (grins). We all know I’m talking about Herr Klaus Schwab. (Schwabbie in my world – too many crooks, their names go vague).
Pepe offers a lot of food for thought.
For instance, the Hegemon, with the biggest, baddest military (and budgets) is forced to use the faux military of NATO. Expecting to project NATO power into Africa and Asia is truly a think tank dream. NATO can’t fight. They bomb defenseless nations.
Hell, AFRICOM has folded and is rolled into EUROCOM (its HQ never set foot in Africa and was always in Germany, so they never had their heart in it.)
Now we have NATO pretending it will fight with Russia and China in the East Asia turf. Complete nonsense. Oh, so we get the QUAD. Maybe they will supply spine and a map to NATO for the big Asian war the think tanks propose?
All these manifestations are proofs that the Hegemon’s day tall in the saddle are over. The nag is lame, the rider has massive saddle sores, the trail ahead is rocky leading to a desert with no water or shelter.
Russia and China are resilient and as a duo pack a combination of punches that will bring memories of Ali fighting Cleveland Williams. The speed and agility and fierce long jabs snapping William’s head so sweat and water popped into the air above the ring, the skull-pounding so sharp that Williams reached out to the air to get hold before he fell from the salvos.
Overmatched! The US, NATO, QUAD, whatever cannot defeat the Double Helix whatever is in their hybrid war chest.
Muhammad Ali was so skillful with his fists and feet; he mastered the art of pugilism with grace and style and was amazing to watch in the boxing ring. The world lost a great martial artist and human being.
Well put, Pepe.
Let’s delve into the NATO 2030 prepostrous. reactionary garbage as per the included enumeration:
Sigh, yes of course NATO must respond to the challenges brought about by Russia’s ever increasing power, backed up as it is by China’s ever increasing power! Remember, borh Russia and China were supposed to have been regime-changed, broken up, and utterly raped and pillaged a whole 30 years ago. Sadly. that didn’t come to pass. Even more sadly, scum like Analny Navalny, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, and their Chinese counterparts just don’t have what it takes to reverse the ongoing global trends since Western incompetence, degeneracy, and mindrot are passed on to the bought and paid for lackeys accordingly. As a result, the decomposition gains further momentum instead but that may be well beyond the capabilities of NATO’s collective brainpower to fathom.
”Establishing a consultative body to discuss all aspects of Allies’ security interests vis-à-vis China” — just awesome. Misery loves company and miserable ”intellectuals” love easy money in exchange for producing little more than psychobabble. Supposedly, this ”consultative body” will be crucial in formulating the most lofty, beautifully named masturbatory fantasies to become due parts of Western lawfare.
The least incomprehensible part of the above impressive word salad is the concluding sentence: ”NATO should expand and strengthen partnerships with Ukraine and Georgia.” Sounds reasonable since NATO, Ukraine, and Georgia are all ruled by fascist imbeciles strongly committed to Russophobia. In these places, the West’s regime change stunts succeeded, but what replaced the governments there proved useless. And now that the terminal rot has set in throughout the West, the Anglo-Zionists just don’t have the wits to get their satrapies to perform as expected. The train definitely left the station as the stunt in Belarus was put down ably and swiftly last summer.
Bottom line: If, like a bolt out of the blue, Russia and China were to fall with their current top-class leaderships, then human civilization is finished. Hence, there will be no NATO by 2030 (assuming a wholly unrealistic NATO victory this decade).
“Iranian President Hassan Rouhani says Iran and China are firmly determined to improve “strategic and long-term” cooperation in various political and economic fields and fight terrorism and extremism in the region….”
Typo in article: written” if the US created “though days” for Russia, as they “are planning that, they can implement that”, Washington “would be responsible for the steps that they would take”.
Should say: ” if the US created “*TOUGH* days” for Russia, as they “are planning that, they can implement that”, Washington “would be responsible for the steps that they would take”.
And it would be so easy to reignite the spark of its past splendor again, to get an almost instant wave of good will and proper deals across the globe to bad old uncle Sam.
Tell the brits to return Gibraltar to Spain where it belongs! With a bow of apologies for the historical misdeeds back 1906, just return Guantanamo to the Cubans. ( No worry the natives wont care if you previously blow up in flames or powder to ashes all the
footprints and smoking guns of your torquemadian torture records in there)
Scrap to the recycling industry, why not, three or four of the eleven plane carriers in service.
Start a close partnership with Beijing to jointly fly a travel-to-Mars program, to which the ‘yellows’ will adhere with enthusiasm.
Start to negotiate with Xi jin Ping a comprehensive program of economic development in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras aimed at keeping there instead, the
‘hordes’ of dark skinned border pressing immigrants. Nipped in the bud.
As we can see those half a dozen problems addressed that way would lead to a natural and proper management of several others in sequence.
But let s stop this array of modest suggestions.. Lest a pack of Pentagon brass or lobbyists label the whole thing terrorism with stroke-inducing activities.
Don’t forget to return the Islas Malvinas to Argentina and the Chagos Islands and Diego Garcia to Mauritius.
I’m rather look forward to the moment the dollar collapses, the Amerikastani Empire implodes, and as Orlov predicted, Amerikastani war criminals are abandoned in their thousand or more “bases” because Amerikastan can’t even afford to take them home. It will be beautiful.
Yes Purkayastha, sorry for the lapse: no exceptions. The Malvinas back to Argentina, the Chagos Garcia to Mauritius.
BTW a timely provoking poke to Macron’s tail as well. Feel that the Elisee Palace who are pleased to keep their Guyana under a colonial-type poverty blanket, would better decide either to invest in the “French Overseas Province” to keep some pace with the Mainland or just leave it to the Venezuelans.
All Russia/China has to do is reveal the true extent of their genuine gold reserves. Probably a verification from some widely recognized Swiss gold/banking consultant would do the trick. Am thinking those reserves are 3-5X the current “official” numbers.
Then send 1000 tons each to all the major gold-clearing spots on the planet, outside the US. i.e. London, Zurich, Shanghai, Dubai, etc.
Then line-up other signatory nations, esp in Central Asia, LatAm (Venezuela, Bolivia, Argentina, etc), east Asia (Myanmar, N. Korea, Timor, etc) and launch the first ever, Eurasian [GOLD-BACKED] currency.
Call it the “Chuble”… the US dollar will take a swoon not seen since Jimmy Carter, the Fed will be forced to jack-up i-rates past the Volcker maximum. Stocks will crater. And the US deep-state will have to go on a “miracle weight-loss diet”.
It’s only a “little” matter of time before all this comes to pass (I think)
I’m not sure if “chuble” would be a good name for that. China’s currency isn’t a ruble, but a yuan, and both nations would be doing this together.
That notwithstanding, the Eurasian gold-backed currency doesn’t sound like a bad idea. But there are some questions concerning specifications that the signatory nations you mention might not agree on:
1. Will this currency circulate alongside the local currencies, or replace them like the euro did?
2. What will the base unit be worth in terms of weight/mass of gold?
3. Will it have subdivisions? (If so, how many smaller units would it be subdivided in? Will it be decimal like the ruble and dollar?)
“Then send 1000 tons each to all the major gold-clearing spots on the planet, outside the US. i.e. London, Zurich, Shanghai, Dubai, etc. ”
Are you NUTS?
Just look at the trouble Venezuela had with Britain seizing their gold.
That’s 1,000 tons of gold the Russians are never going to see again once the British have got their hands on it.
Occams Razor needs sharpening. His facts are total BullShit.
“Gold Reserves in Russia decreased to 2298.53 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 2298.65 Tonnes in the third quarter of 2020.” source: World Gold Council
That’s 0.12 tonnes, not quite 1000 tons.
And the charts here (https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves) indicate no change on the decrease side because for 3 years the reserves have been increasing, until Covid changed the world economy and the total remained steady.
Russia and China horde gold. They don’t ship it around. They add to their reserves.
So, stop the misinformation.
“US/NATO vs. Russia-China…”
Framing in “nation states” facilitates myopia.
“And as a sign of these sorry times, there’s no James Baker or George Kennan to advise against such folly.”
Evaluation is a function of purpose and facility, hence some perceive “sorry times”, whilst some perceive “expected times”.
Every change needs a right INSERTION wave to succeed. The digital currency arena provides a good opportunity to establish a new global financial system. We’re not going back to the gold standard. Gold is one of the assets in the portfolio of stores of investment, like real estate, companies, bonds, … Most of the international trade payment infrastructure has already been digitized. Introduction of DIGITAL CURRENCIES by nations (national currencies) on that international payment infrastructure won’t be difficult and it will support multiple payment networks in addition to SWIFT. How will digital currencies impact the internal trade of a nation is totally a different topic, here the focus is on the international trade.
The U.S. is a laggard in the digital currency arena because it is the biggest beneficiary of the existing system and 70+% of its dollar bills are outside the nation. This enables it to bribe internationally and carry out its corruption game. There won’t be a need for nations to FLOAT currency in the digital currency arena as the transaction can be settled on the spot. This takes away another attack tactic of the Financial Empire which has used it to attack & manipulate currencies of nations through its primary dealer banks. In summation, a better system is coming!
Now the change can happen at any moment by China, Russia and other nations DECLARING that they will only trade in their respective national currencies and won’t accept dollars for their products, resources and services. This will start a domino effect on various blocks of the financial value chain. Russia and China don’t have to declare their gold reserve or come to the Empire’s controlled entities for approval. They will decide in which currencies to trade. The EU, Japan, Asia, Africa, and Latin America will benefit significantly from the new system. When will this change happen?
It seems that the financial elite of the US controls their government´s domestic and foreign policy through corruption of the body politic, which in turn directs their military arm via NATO. They have been so far unsuccessful in imposing their will on the governments of Russia and China, where they are hugely invested but firmly under goverment control. It looks to me like they are on the wrong side of history.
No James Baker or George Keenan?
But there is the navel gazing Longer Telegram from the Anonymous American ex diplomat, no❓
A takeaway from that interminable yarn: China respects USA.
True. But China does not fear USA, as demonstrated in that peninsular war and the recent pushback in Alaska.
OTOH, Washington fears but does not respect China.
Sanctions to intimidate arriving guests, even diplomatic pettiness – to such triviality has a great nation descended.
Very Milton esque. how art thou fallen, O, Lucifer, son of the morning.
A country that claims God’s guiding light, but has lost its manners and even moral compass; against its
rival, headed by an officially God free leadership grounded in strong humanistic principles.
The relationship with China ( or Russia, Iran) need not be so testy.
Beijing just asks for reciprocity and mutual respect.
This is not a new green shoot of CPC policy.
It has been a core Chinese principle, even at her weakest in the 19th century.
American ambassador Anson Burlingame resigned to take up a post, representing China’s interests to the Western powers.
It was bound to be an uphill task, given the venal arrogance of the foreign imperialists.
Ambassador Burlingame passed away in Saint Petersburg before he could make significant headway.
But, more than 100 years later, condescending Western attitudes remain same.
But China has changed.
It came to the Alaska table in a position of strength, and hammered home the point.
Priceless, to watch Blinkers like a mortified boy getting finger wagged by his nanny for not tucking in shirt or pulling up socks!
One country needs to update on 21st century etiquette, and it borders the Atlantic.
I can pretty much guarantee Uncle Schmuel in great desperation will resort to beating Drums of war and may light the fires of war, the problem is that Schmuel is sick, wounded and dying; a very dangerous state to be in for an evil entity; because the consequences will be borne by all of us regardless of where we live.
This is not unusual when a hegemonic power is dying in historical context, Specially in the western civilisation and its predecessors; Rome is a perfect example the whole empire was on fire, the Nero’s in Rome were sipping wine, fornicating with young boys and girls and even animals, watching Gladiator games in colosseums where slaves were murdering each other or were being ripped apart by wild animals.
The hegemon may well resort to a nuclear strike starting a chain reaction strikes which will destroy the Hegemon, and its populations as well as many others, nobody is safe, these criminals have already been the first ones to have already used nuclear weapons on civilian population with no military value; they murder for profit and with the ” jew” in full control of hegemon’s elites; bloodshed is a foregone conclusion.
This is a time to seek Gods help; For as many a times they light the fires of war the lord above extinguishes it as a sign of his mercy for us, his creatures.
We must all understand the REAL US foreign policy. I’ll start the ball rolling down the road to enlightenment by referring to a wonderful speech by nuclear Liar and Murderer in Chief Harry Truman, who just happened to be playing the role of POTUS at the time the US Elite dropped nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. (Nothing like video to tell the story, but I’ve transcribed the most important of God-worshiping Harry’s God-inspired words.)
“Having found the atomic bomb, we have used it. We shall continue to use it until we completely destroy Japan’s power to make war. Only a Japanese surrender will stop us. It is an awful responsibility which has come to us. We thank God that it has come to us instead of to our enemies. And we pray that He may guide us to use it in His ways and for His purposes.”
Now fast-forward to not that many years ago with a rare bit of a US VIP’s equally honest description of REAL US foreign policy that was delivered to one of the US’s most loyal vassal states – “Australia” – in typical undiplomatic, crystal-clear language. The following video that contains the description is just over 8 minutes in length and it is all well worth watching IMO, but it is what starts at 6 minutes and 18 seconds into the video that is most important. At that point, VIP John Mearsheimer spells out to US Vassal State 2 (or is it 3?) just exactly what it would mean if #2 improved relations with China instead of continuing to bow to US diktat.
“Now, the question is: what does this all mean for Australia? Ahh, you’re in a quandary for sure. Everybody knows…..everybody knows what the quandary is. Security-wise, you really want to go with us. It makes just a lot more sense ….. right, uh,… you understand that security is more important that prosperity? ……. because if you don’t survive, you’re not going to prosper. Survival is of the utmost importance ‘cuz you can’t pursue any other goals if you don’t survive. Right. So security’s gotta be number 1,….. so you’ll sacrifice prosperity for security. Right. That’s what will happen. That’s why you’ll be with us. Now, some people say that there’s an alternative. You can go with China. You have a choice here. You can go with China rather than the United States. There’s two things I’ll say about that. Number 1, if you go with China, you wanna understand that you are our enemy. You are then deciding to become an enemy of the United States………..cuz, again, we’re talking about an intense security competition. You’re either with us or against us. And if you’re trading extensively with China….. and you’re friendly with China,……..you’re undermining the United States in the security competition. You’re feeding the beast, from our perspective, …. and that is not going to make us happy and when we are not happy, you do not want to underestimate how nasty we can be. Just ask Fidel Castro.”
And this is a speech delivered to one of the US’s ass-licking vassal-state allies! With a “friend” like this, who needs enemies? (More apt question: With an enemy like this, who needs a friend? Answer: all of the US’s vassal states.)
I believe that it is an absolute certainty that somebody equivalent to Mearsheimer has delivered the exact same ultimatum to absolutely ALL of the US’s vassal states, wherever they may be in the world, and this includes the US’s relatively new vassal-state formerly called Ukraine, now called “Ukraine”.
It also includes “Canada” – nickname for Vassal State #3. For just one example among an innumerable many, a few days ago Trustin Judeau and Marc Garneau said some very anti-Russia and anti-China things in front of TV cameras (things that were broadcast that evening to the “Canadian” Bewildered Herd by the “Canadian” MSM). I know with absolute certainty that those two slaves said what they said after some US State (War) Department VIP delivered to them a Mearsheimer-like ultimatum. I’m also pretty sure that the aforementioned US slaves were handed US-approved statements to read aloud.
And now we all understand the REAL “foreign policy” of The Greatest Nation On Planet Earth – the United States of America. The most important question for the rest of the world is amazingly simple. Is the modern-day incarnation of Harry S. Truman going to pray to God so that “He may guide us to use it (nuclear weapons) in His ways and for His purposes”?
Let’s face a very ugly truth. The US Elite used nuclear weapons on Japanese cities when the US Elite knew with certainty that the US military would defeat Japan in the near future. What will the US Elite (or its vassals) do with its nuclear weapons NOW, when it knows that its “system” and its NWO is about to be defeated by Russia, China and Iran?
The bomb was used to intimidate Stalin and USSR. see Gar Alperovitz. The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb and the Architecture of an American Myth. The result was a momentary advantage…and an arms race with the Soviet bomb in a short time. The boffins said that would happen. It did. That was not the only betrayal of FDR’s Policy… His death attended a policy coup that astonishingly aligned with what Groves had said months before…surely coincidental!
The firebombing also followed the idea… Groves of the bomb project in March of ’44 said “the bomb is for Russia”. Indeed the plan was pretty much take over the Reich and turn it into NATO with “better “leadership”…
Seriously, Gar nails it.
For encore? Jeffery Kaye @ medium on germ war… solid. and China got the treatment too.
Chilling. Absolutely chilling.
A doddering senial twit with his finger on the button and god only knows whose hand up his backside.
Our only hope lies in the humanity and patience of the leaderships of those in the hegemons sights.
More Russian-sanctions madness from “Canada”, no doubt on the orders of its masters in DC:
“OTTAWA, March 29. /TASS/. The Canadian government has introduced new anti-Russian sanctions over Crimea reuniting with the Russian Federation, the statement by Global Affairs Canada said on Monday.
The agency stated that in response to Russia’s reunification with Crimea, “Marc Garneau, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today announced new sanctions against 2 individuals and 4 entities, under the Special Economic Measures (Russia) Regulations and the Special Economic Measures (Ukraine) Regulations.”
The sanctions list includes Alexander Ganov, general director of the Grand Service Express, Leonid Ryzhenkin, general director of Mostottrest, as well as the Lenpromtransproyekt enterprise, the Berkakit-Tommot-Yakutsk Railway Line’s Construction Directorate, the Crimea Railway Federal State Unitary Enterprise, and the First Crimean Insurance Company.”
Ukraine may get significant military aid from the UK and ‘Guest’ association status with NATO through the proverbial ‘back door’ if this goes through:
From a source in the UK (should be searchable on the net in the next day or two):
“As part of a wider military review and upgrade programme in the face of Russian aggression in both Europe and Syria, it was announced earlier this year that the British Army would upgrade thier main battle tank force.
To help fund the upgrade the Army plan to sell as scrap up to 77 obsolescent British Challenger 2 main battle tanks. However, due to increased Russian aggression towards Ukraine, and the threat that Russia may not be content with stealing Crimea and supporting separitist terrorists in Eastern Ukraine, British Government Ministers are now considering selling these scrap tanks to Ukraine, along with the necessary spare parts and tools to fix them and maintain them. Should this sale of scrap Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine be approved, specialists and advisors may need be sent with the tanks to help Ukraine commision them and then to train Ukrainian armed forces in thier use. Such a deal, if approved, may set a precedent for other NATO states, particularly the United States to sell scrap or otherwise obsolete military equipment to Ukraine. Ministers stated that such sale or transfer of scrap and obsolete NATO equipment to Ukraine would perhaps help to eventually facilitate the participation of Ukraine in NATO exercises in the region, albeit as guests as full NATO membership is unlikely to be approved for at least another year or two”.
Hmmm, so it looks like the sneaky Brits have found a loophole with which to supply Ukraine with some NATO armour – fully funtioning MBT’s and support equipment sold as “scrap”.
Extract from Declassified Report (British Government Document):
Minister for Defence Procurement, Jeremy Quinn MP, on the ability of UK armoured forces to meet a peer adversary threat:
D e r e k Tw i g g: “Minister, in 2025, will a British warfighting division be capable of overmatching the forces of a peer opponent such as Russia?”
Jeremy Quin: “Absolutely. Our objective is to ensure we have a high-end and extremely capable warfighting division, and that comes from a layered approach. We are learning the whole time about what is going on in other theatres, such as in Syria, in Ukraine and, sadly, right now in Armenia and Azerbaijan. We need to understand how to ensure that we have the very top capabilities. .As the General was saying, it comes from investment in ISTAR and deep strike. Absolutely, we will ensure we are in a position, alongside our NATO allies, take on adversaries wherever the threat should come. However, we are asking far more of the Army than that . The answer to your question is yes.
Brigadier (retired) Ben Barry, Senior Fellow for Land Warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, cast doubt on the Ministry of Defence’s assertions on the ability to overmatch peer adversaries, both now and by 2025:
“Since the Russian threat to NATO’s eastern states is heavy in armour, NATO requires a credible land armoured warfare capability to deter and if necessary, defeat Russian armoured forces. Evidence suggests (Progress in delivering the British Army’s armoured vehicle capability, HC 659, 20 October 2020) that British tanks are obsolescent and outgunned and that the British Army expects to play a major role in any such war . The most challenging peer adversary for the 3rd Divisions’ capability is Russia. To match Russian tank or motor rifle formations, in 2025, the division will need to exploit its strengths, but find ways of overcoming its weaknesses”
Brigadier Barry’s analysis of the reduced warfighting division suggests that it will not be able to overmatch a modern Russian armoured division, and rather it would find itself overmatched.Analysis highlights a severe imbalance in terms of armoured forces and anti-armour capability with the posited reduced UK division versus a Russian counterpart.
Recommendations are to immediately update British Armour and anti-armour capability in order to directly challenge Russia in Europe.
Main Battle Tanks
Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) are the heaviest, best protected vehicles, equipped with a large calibre gun designed to destroy a range of targets including other MBTs via direct engagement on the battlefield. Modern MBTs are highly mobile, well armoured and equipped with advanced fire control, sensors and increasingly, active protection systems which can defeat anti-tank missiles.
The Challenger 2 is the British Army’s sole Main Battle Tank. Introduced in the late 1990s, it may have represented the peak of evolution of UK tank design and production since 1945. Its predecessor (Challenger 1) performed well in the 1991 First Gulf War and, with some environmental modifications. Challenger 2 repeated this during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. However, since its introduction in 1998 the vehicle has not undergone any significant capability upgrades.
In the wake of Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2014, and its development of a new generation of main battle tank (the T-14 ‘Armata’), along with improved armour for in service Russian tanks, concerns emerged about the ability of the Challenger 2 to meet this new threat.
The lack of upgrades mean the tank is also less capable than its NATO counterparts such as the German Leopard II and the American Abrams. The Ministry of Defence is clearly aware that our armoured capability is falling behind that of our allies and potential adversaries. In a speech in 2019 the then Defence Secretary said:“ … .we must be competitive. We have not been.
Challenger 2 has been in service without a major upgrade since 1998. During this time the United States, Germany and Denmark have completed two major upgrades, whilst Russia has fielded five new variants with a sixth pending … Warrior, is even more obsolete, and is twenty years older than those operated by our key allies. Since Warrior’s introduction in 1988 the United States and Germany have conducted four major upgrades and Russia has invested in three new v a r i a nt s”.
To address this widening capability gap, the Ministry of Defence has proposed the Challenger 2 Life Extension Project (LEP) to address specific obsolete features of the tank. The original scope excluded a new 120mm L30 Rifled Main Armament, but it did include a provision for the Assessment Phase contractors to undertake a Lethality Study. It has been widely reported that the scope of the LEP has been expanded such that the Demonstration and Manufacture Phases will include a new 120mm smoothbore gun (similar to that used by Germany on the Leopard 2A7).
As a consequence of this broadened scope the LEP’s estimated whole life cost is £1.3bn.35 If approved, the upgrade of the tank will be carried out in the UK by Rheinmetall-BAE Systems Limited (RBSL).
A decision on whether to proceed with the upgrade project was due to be taken in late 2020.
‘Has the T14 Armata changed the game?’, The Wavell Room, 11 December 2018, accessed 2 February 202133Defence Secretary keynote speech at the Land Warfare Conference 2019, Ministry of Defence, 4 June 201934Written evidence submitted by the Ministry of Defence, AVFF0016, para 1135Armour MBT 2025, MoD Government Major Projects Portfolio data, 2020
Obsolescent and outgunned: the British Army’s armoured vehicle capability 16been postponed as a result of the delay to the publication on the Integrated Review, now expected in Q1 2021.36 It is not clear how many of the current 227 Challenger 2 vehicles would be upgraded as part of this project, but media reporting has suggested it may be as few as 148, with the remainder being placed in storage.3736. Our inquiry heard arguments both for and against the Challenger 2 LEP. In its written evidence, the contractor RBSL stated that “[t]he Challenger 2 Life Extension Project … will create the most capable Main Battle Tank … in NATO” and that it was wrong to suggest newer vehicles are available from NATO allies, rather that platforms such as Leopard II had benefited from years of incremental upgrades.38 The Ministry of Defence concurred with this view, noting that:“once in service [Challenger 2] will be comparable–and in certain areas superior–to the latest version of Leopard 2 and Abrams. It will have the same level of lethality, better survivability, similar levels of mobility and more capable surveillance and target acquisition systems”.3937. In contrast, Nicholas Drummond (a consultant for RBSL competitor Krauss-Maffei-Wegmann) suggested that given armoured vehicle programmes typically take 10 years to implement, by the time the Challenger 2 LEP was completed the vehicle would be close to its projected end of service life (2035–2040), and therefore would not represent value for money. Mr Drummond offered the alternative view that the UK would be better to purchase off-the-shelf the latest variants of Leopard II or Abrams as a bridge to the development of a next-generation main battle tank in the 2040s.4038. We do not propose to recommend which course the Ministry of Defence should take (on the assumption that the Integrated Review concludes that the UK should retain heavy a r mou r). We note that the Department’s recent experience of upgrading older vehicles with new weapons and turrets has been difficult, resulting in additional costs and delays in delivering the required capability. The Challenger 2 LEP calls for the integration of a new digitised turret and main gun, along with other upgrades, within an existing hull. When making the decision on whether to proceed with the programme, the Department must ensure that it has reduced such risks as far as possible and fully weighed the options between upgrade and an off-the-shelf replacement. The Department should also provide us with a timetable for the programme and explain what alternatives have been considered. We also believe that the Department should examine the possibility of fitting Challenger with an automatic loader.39.We do not want to see the Army forced to ensure a lengthy capability gap as a consequence of emergent technical and integration issues. The Department should confirm to us that the UK’s main battle tank capability is currently fit for purpose and will remain so until Challenger 2 LEP reaches Full Operating Capability (assuming this project is approved later in 2021).36Ripley, T. ‘UK delays programme decisions on armoured vehicles’, Janes Defence News, 12 January 202137Cranny-Evans, S. ‘UK to reduce operational Challenger 2 tank fleet’, Janes Defence News, 23 April 201938Written evidence submitted by Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land (RBSL), AVF0 013, paras 15–1639Written evidence submitted by the Ministry of Defence, AVFF0016, para 11.40Nicholas Drummond Written Evidence, para 11
Extracted from official declassified British House of Commons (Government) Document:
Further to the possible sale of “scrap” tanks to Ukraine comes news that the British are also considering selling “retired and decommisioned” military training aircraft to Ukraine.
According to a British MP, the entire fleet (x71) of Hawk T1 fast-jet training aircraft could be sold to Ukraine under a growing Anglo-Ukrainian training and assistance partnership.
Although the UK use the Hawk T1 for pilot combat training and for air displays (see ‘The Red Arrows’), the Hawk T1 is a very capable, low cost, easy to maintain and very manouverable (see ‘The Red Arrows’ display team) air combat and ground attack aircraft. Indeed the Hawk T1 is used in combat roles by several nations around the World, including India and Saudi Arabia.
Several nations around the World, including Canada and Australia use highly uprated versions of the Hawk with modern avionics. Such aircraft are very capable ground attack (anti-armour) aircraft, and equiped with modern air-to-air missiles can fight well above thier weight.
As the versions proposed to be sold to Ukraine are unarmed “decommisioned training aircraft”, it is thought that no legal or political issues will be encountered, unlike the sale or transfer of fighter jets, however it would take very little effort for these aircraft to be updated and upgraded to effective lightweight ground attack aircraft, or equipped with cannon for rapid drone interception.
Plans for retirement of the Hawk are public:
Leaks regarding the possible tranfer of “retired” Hawk jets comes after leaks that “scrap” British Challenger 2 tanks may also be tranfered / sold to Ukraine.
A picture is now being formed of the British rushing to assist Ukraine increase its anti-armour capacity to deter further Russian aggression, especially in the North and East of the country.
Also rumoured (one level below a “leak”) is that the UK will help Ukraine develop a, quote, “Littoral Strike Capability”.
This is believed be in the form of a combined Marine / Special Forces capability including at least one helicoptor carrying naval vessel, at least one C130 Hercules (yet another plane being coincidently “retired” by the UK), and a fleet of small but heavily armed attack boats. It has been suggested that the Royal Navy will develop such a programme for Ukraine under the cover of joint training exercises involvng converted ships such as a ‘Bay Class’ being used as a test mule for a larger programme (with the Bay Class no doubt being “scrapped” and sold to Ukraine at some point in the programme).
As the British Royal Navy are also “scrapping” two ‘Type 23’ Frigites, it would not suprise me if we see these NATO spec warships ending up in the Black Sea under a Ukrainian flag.
If the British Parliament approve such sales / transfers to Ukraine then we could be seeing the beginning of a wider, major and very dangerous move to bring Ukraine up to NATO military standards very quickly.
Such a naval move would seriously threaten Russia in Crimea, seriously threaten the Crimean Bridge, and seriously threaten Russian movements in the Black Sea (when combined with current US and UK movements and basing in the Black Sea).
Well, if they are that stupid / mad, it will be a lot’s of target practice for Russians. And chance to demonstrate capabilities of some of the new hardware.
Few flies with one flap – a great commercial for Russian military products. (Might bring in some lucrative new contracts). Irritate / cooldown some hot heads and get them to think twice about next move. Set the border at the Dnepr river. Give EU a headache of getting to cope with a Banderistan, that should keep them busy for quite some time.
Yes, the UK are that stupid, and more –
Contracts have already been signed for mine protection vessels (an Orwellian term for mine deployment and area denial ships) and also these more modern missile boats:
The US is also no longer hiding support for a potential future blockade of Crimea and have already started overt military aid:
Turkey are also supplying sea-drones and counter submarine warfare equipment, and providing direct training under cover of joint exercises:
Insiders have alerted the World on many occasions that NATO will not allow Crimea to remain in Russian hands, even if it means a shooting war (which they believe they can contain in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea). NATO have also made it clear they will not allow further development of a special naval weapons facility in Novorossiysk. People need to watch Novorossiysk closely in the months ahead – it is a serious target now:
NATO have also recenly tested advanced Undersea drones (ostensibly for mine detection exercises) in the Black Sea. Many different mine “detection” (read deployment) ships have been deployed in the Black Sea (to train in hunting and targeting of both Russian subs and Russian heavy undersea drones). This is the public part of the exercise:
“The Black Sea maneuvers saw the French and Spanish fighter jets prod the air defences of Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group Two, which is currently in the region. The fleet of NATO minehunters, supported by three Romanian F-16 fighters, faced simulated attacks from the French and Spanish jets, including with anti-ship missiles”:
Make no mistake, the recent announcements by the UK that they will increase their nuclear weapons stockpile was a direct message to Russia that the Black Sea is no longer a “Russian Lake” – NATO has arrived and with Ukraine is here to stay.
All Russia can do now is watch as NATO militarise the Black Sea and move to bring Ukraine into NATO. Before NATO is admitted we will see MASSIVE US and UK military “aid” and “training” pumped into Ukraine. At this stage there is little Russia can do to prevent it, all Russia can do (without a war).
” … All Russia can do … watch as NATO militarise the Black Sea and move to bring Ukraine into NATO…”
Western alliance is rapidly destructing itself and is mainly able to produce noise and hot air. If the push comes to a shove we’ll see how many NATO-nians fancy a charge to the cold Russian steppes…
Russia officially stated more then once that there will be no war on the Russian territory any more…
I suppose if NATO start war against Russia, until the last Ukranian, first warning will be sudden blowing up of command center(s) with Western advisers, as in Syria. If that fails to cool heads, they will bring war closer to homes of those (delusional) planers…
Yes, there is a hybrid war with both Russia and China, but not with both at the same time – which is unwinnable.
What the US will try to do is to fight one at a time while keeping the other under tension but without actual kinetic hostilities.
This was what Hitler tried to do initially – signed a non-aggression pact with Russia while he dwelt with France.
But the US won’t sign any non-aggression pact with neither Russia nor China. The US will just attack one while keeping the other on tenterhooks.
Now, which country will the US kinetically attack first, Russia or China?
My hunch is that it would be China which the US will attack first and will initiate hostilities with provocations over Taiwan. This is because the US thinks that China is militarily weaker than Russia in both conventional and nuclear weapons.
I think that US will continue to make a lot of noise but it will not dare to attack.
Last time they tried, they didn’t enjoy it very much… And China was underdeveloped and exhausted from the WWII and revolution in those times… It is vey different game now. And US Armed Forces are accustomed to bomb helpless small countries without Air Force and Air Defence. Not industrial super power with worlds largest Army…
“This “triple threat” is what is unleashing the Hegemon’s unbounded fury”.
‘Goddamn those filthy non-Aryan Asiatics! They are taking steps to DEFEND themselves against us!!
‘My patience is exhausted…’
(Know what’s funny? If there ever were real Aryans, they came from Russia and their first stop was Iran. In fact the name “Iran” originally meant “Aryan”).
“what more NATO could do to build stability in the region”.
Hmmm. Reminds of…
“Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant”.
– Calgacus, quoted by Tacitus in “Agricola”.
(“To ravage, to slaughter, to usurp under false titles, they call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace”).
“NATO should outline a global blueprint… for better utilizing its partnerships to advance NATO strategic interests”.
And here was I believing that NATO was a defensive alliance designed to protect Western Europe from Soviet aggression. Aggression, that is, by the USSR – which dissolved itself 30 years ago…
How does NATO come to have “interests”? Oh yes – now I remember…
“In any bureaucracy, the people devoted to the benefit of the bureaucracy itself always get in control and those dedicated to the goals the bureaucracy is supposed to accomplish have less and less influence, and sometimes are eliminated entirely”.
– Pournelle’s Law of Bureaucracy
‘NATO insists this vast expanse is characterized by “fragility, instability, and insecurity”…’
Yah, I can buy that.
And the cure for this “fragility, instability, and insecurity” is obviously a very great deal of bombing. Am I right or am I right?
How these NATO cretins can say such things with a straight face is very worrying to day the least .Now if it was satire ,I would understand and even applaud .