This column was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-nine-of-the-russian-intervention-in-syria-the-empire-strikes-back/
Considering the remarkable success of the Russian intervention in Syria, at least so far, it should not have come as a surprise that the AngloZionist Empire would strike back. The only question was how and when. We now know the answer to that question.
On November 24th the Turkish Air force did something absolutely unprecedented in recent history: it deliberately shot down another country’s military aircraft even though it was absolutely obvious that this aircraft presented no threat whatsoever to Turkey or the Turkish people. The Russian Internet is full of more or less official leaks about how this was done. According to these versions, the Turks maintained 12 F-16 on patrol along the border ready to attack, they were guided by AWACS aircraft and “covered” by USAF F-15s in case of an immediate Russian counter-attack. Maybe. Maybe not. But this hardly matters because what is absolutely undeniable is that the USA and NATO immediately took “ownership” of this attack by giving their full support to Turkey. NATO went as far as to declare that it would send aircraft and ships to protect Turkey as it it had been Russia who had attacked Turkey. As for the USA, not only did it fully back Turkey, it now also categorically denies that there is any evidence that Turkey is purchasing Daesh oil. Finally, as was to be expected, the USA is now sending The Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group into the eastern Mediterranean, officially to strike Daesh but, in reality, to back Turkey and threaten Russia. Even the Germans are now sending their own aircraft, but with the specific orders not to share any info with the Russians.
So what is really going on here?
Simple: the Empire correctly identified the weakness of the Russian force in Syria, and it decided to use Turkey to provide itself an element of plausible deniability. This attack is probably only the first step of a much larger campaign to “push back” Russia from the Turkish border. The next step, apparently, includes the dispatching of western forces into Syria, initially only as ‘advisors’, but eventually as special forces and forward air controllers. The US and Turkish Air Forces will play the primary role here, with assorted Germans and UK aircraft providing enough diversity to speak of an “international coalition”. As for the French, stuck between their Russian counterparts and their NATO “allies”, they will remain as irrelevant as ever: Hollande caved in, again (what else?). Eventually, NATO will create a de-facto safe heaven for its “moderate terrorists” in northern Syria and use it as a base to direct an attack on Raqqa. Since any such intervention will be completely illegal, the argument of the need to defend the Turkmen minority will be used, R2P and all. The creation of a NATO-protected safe heaven for “moderate terrorists” could provide the first step from breaking up Syria into several smaller statelets.
If that is really the plan, then the shooting down of the SU-24 sends a powerful message to Russia: we are ready to risk a war to push you back – are you ready to go to war? The painful answer will be that no, Russia is not prepared to wage a war against the entire Empire over Syria, simply because she does not have the capabilities to do so.
As I have already mentioned many times now, Syria is beyond the Russian power projection capability (roughly 1000km), especially if that power projection has to be executed through hostile territory (which Turkey most definitely is). So far, the Russians have succeeded, brilliantly, to organize and support their small force in Syria, but that in no way indicates a Russian capability to support a major air operation over Syria or, even less so, a ground operation. The fact is that the Russian intervention in Syria was always a risky and difficult one, and it did not take the Empire much time to capitalize on this. Though I get a lot of flak from flag-wavers and “hurray patriots” for saying this, but the fact is that Russia cannot ‘protect’ Syria from the US, NATO or even CENTCOM. At least not in purely military terms. This does not mean that Russia does not have retaliatory options. Russia has already engaged in the following:
Economic sanctions: Russia has declared a number of sanctions against Turkey, including the freezing of the Turkish Stream project. Furthermore, Russian tourism in Turkey – a huge source of revenue – is most likely to dwindle down to a tiny what it used to be: Russians will not be banned from going to Turkey, but no tours or packages will be offered by Russian travel agencies. Some Turkish goods will be banned in Russia, and Turks will not be invited to bid for various types of contracts. All in all, these sanctions will hurt Turkey, but not in a major way.
Political sanctions: here Russia will use one of her most terrifying weapons: the truth. The Russian military presented a devastating series of photos and videos shot by Russian air and space assets proving that Turkey does, indeed, purchase oil from Daesh. What was especially shocking about this evidence is that it showed the truly immense scale of the smuggling: one photo showed 1’722 oil trucks in in Deir Ez-Zor region while another one showed 8’500 oil tankers are used by Daesh to transport up 200’000 barrels of oil. What these figures mean is that not only is this smuggling organized at the level of the Turkish state, but it is also absolutely obvious that the USA knows everything about it.
Predictably, the western media made no mention of the actual evidence, it only spoke of “images the Russians claim to show”, but the damage is still done, especially in the long term. Now everybody with a modicum of intelligence knows that Erdogan is a lying crook. More importantly, it has now become undeniable that Turkey is not only an ally, but a patron and sponsor of Daesh. Finally, in the light of this evidence, it also becomes rather obvious why Turkey decided to shoot down the Russian SU-24: because the Russians were bombing the Daesh to Turkey smuggling routes.
The final blow to the prestige and credibility of Erdogan and Turkey came from Vladimir Putin himself who, in his annual address to the Parliament said:
We know who are stuffing pockets in Turkey and letting terrorists prosper from the sale of oil they stole in Syria. The terrorists are using these receipts to recruit mercenaries, buy weapons and plan inhuman terrorist attacks against Russian citizens and against people in France, Lebanon, Mali and other states. We remember that the militants who operated in the North Caucasus in the 1990s and 2000s found refuge and received moral and material assistance in Turkey. We still find them there.
Meanwhile, the Turkish people are kind, hardworking and talented. We have many good and reliable friends in Turkey. Allow me to emphasize that they should know that we do not equate them with the certain part of the current ruling establishment that is directly responsible for the deaths of our servicemen in Syria.
We will never forget their collusion with terrorists. We have always deemed betrayal the worst and most shameful thing to do, and that will never change. I would like them to remember this – those in Turkey who shot our pilots in the back, those hypocrites who tried to justify their actions and cover up for terrorists.
I don’t even understand why they did it. Any issues they might have had, any problems, any disagreements we knew nothing about could have been settled in a different way. Plus, we were ready to cooperate with Turkey on all the most sensitive issues it had; we were willing to go further, where its allies refused to go. Allah only knows, I suppose, why they did it. And probably, Allah has decided to punish the ruling clique in Turkey by taking their mind and reason.
But, if they expected a nervous or hysterical reaction from us, if they wanted to see us become a danger to ourselves as much as to the world, they won’t get it. They won’t get any response meant for show or even for immediate political gain. They won’t get it.
Our actions will always be guided primarily by responsibility – to ourselves, to our country, to our people. We are not going to rattle the sabre. But, if someone thinks they can commit a heinous war crime, kill our people and get away with it, suffering nothing but a ban on tomato imports, or a few restrictions in construction or other industries, they’re delusional. We’ll remind them of what they did, more than once. They’ll regret it. We know what to do.
Of course, in a society thoroughly habituated to lying, dishonesty and hypocrisy, these are “only” words, and they shall be ignored. But in the Middle-East and the rest of the world, these are powerful words which the Turks will have a very hard time “washing off” from their reputation.
Military measures: these are limited, of course, but not irrelevant. First, Russia has now admitted that S-400 are now in Syria (I suspect they were there all along). Second, Russia has began building a 2nd air base, this time in Shaayrat, in central Syria. If this base is indeed built, then bringing in a few Russian AWACS and/or MiG-31s would make sense. Third, Russia will now used more modern SU-34 equipped with advanced air-to-air missiles in northern Syria and Russian strike aircraft will now be escorted by dedicated SU-30SM fighters. This combination of measures will make it much harder for the Turks to repeat such an attack, but I personally doubt that they have any such intentions, at least not in the immediate future.
In order to fully understand what is happening now we need to look at the bigger picture. The first major consequence of the shooting down of the Russian SU-24 is that NATO has now become an impunity alliance. Now that the precedent has been set by Turkey’s act of war on Russia, because that is what this shooting down undeniably was, any NATO member can now do the same thing while feeling protected by the alliance. If tomorrow, say, the Latvians decide to strafe a Russian Navy ship in the Baltic Sea or if the Poles shoot down a Russian aircraft over Kaliningrad, they will immediately get the ‘protection’ of NATO just like Turkey now did: the USA will fully endorse the Latvian/Polish version of the events, the Secretary General of NATO will offer to dispatch more forces to Latvia/Poland to “protect” these countries from any “threat” from “the east” and the world’s corporate media will turn a blind eye to any evidence of Latvian/Polish aggression. This is an extremely dangerous development as it gives a strong incentive to any small country to deal with its inferiority complex by should its “courage” and “determination” to challenge Russia even if, of course, this is done by hiding behind NATO’s back.
NATO is also deliberately escalating its war on Russia by admitting Montenegro into the Alliance and by re-starting talks about admitting Georgia. In a purely military sense, the incorporation of Montenegro into NATO makes no difference whatsoever, but in political terms this is yet another way for the West to thumb its nose at Russia and say “see, we will even incorporate your historical allies into our Empire and there is nothing you can do about it”. As for Georgia, the main purpose behind the discussion of its incorporation into NATO is to vindicate the “Saakashvili line”, i.e. to reward aggression towards Russia. Here again, there is nothing Russia can do.
We thus are facing an extremely dangerous situation:
- The Russian forces in Syria are comparatively weak and isolated
- Turkey can, and will, continue its provocations under the cover of NATO
- The West is now preparing an (illegal) intervention inside Syria
- The western intervention will be made against Syria and Russia
- NATO politicians now have an easy way to score “patriotic” points by provoking Russia
If we strip all the NATO verbiage about “defending our members” what is happening now is that the Empire has now apparently decided that going down the road to war is safe because Russia will not dare to “start” a war. In other words, this is a game of chicken in which one side dares the other to do something about it. This is exactly what Putin was referring to when he said:
If they expected a nervous or hysterical reaction from us, if they wanted to see us become a danger to ourselves as much as to the world, they won’t get it. They won’t get any response meant for show or even for immediate political gain. They won’t get it. Our actions will always be guided primarily by responsibility – to ourselves, to our country, to our people
What the imperial deep state is missing is the fact that Russia might not have a choice but to confront the Empire. Yes, the Russians do not want war, but the problem here is that, considering the absolutely reckless arrogance and imperial hubris of the western elites, every Russian effort to avoid war is interpreted by the western deep state as a sign of weakness. In other words, by acting responsibly the Russians are now providing an incentive for the West to act even more irresponsibly. This is a very, very, dangerous dynamic which the Kremlin will have to deal with. Putin, apparently, does have something in mind, at least this is how I understand his warning:
But, if someone thinks they can commit a heinous war crime, kill our people and get away with it, suffering nothing but a ban on tomato imports, or a few restrictions in construction or other industries, they’re delusional. We’ll remind them of what they did, more than once. They’ll regret it. We know what to do.
I have no idea as to what he might be referring to, but I am confident that this is not some empty bluster: this was not a threat to Russia’s enemies, but a promise to the Russian people. I sure hope that there is a plan because right now we are on a collision course leading to war. In conclusion, here is a short quote by Putin western leaders might want to ponder:
self-righteous ‘doing gawd’s work since July 24,1694’ brits, late to the oil rush, but still with time to spare to rewrite some history.
In the 1990s the government acted to crush the IRA’s many illegal funding sources, and this played a large part in forcing it to the negotiating table. As the IRA discovered: “To wage war, you need first of all money; second, you need money, and third, you also need money”.
The government should ponder this as it decides on its strategy for defeating Isis. Parliament has granted its assent for military action, but what was apparent from the debate is that there is as yet no realistic plan to eliminate the jihadists.
Interesting caption on the lead photos in the article: ISIS sells most of it’s oil in Turkey. So the British press is admitting that, even if they don’t explain which country bombed the oil truck convoy.
Realistically, as Saker correctly points out, Russia is not in a military position to defend Syria against an all-out NATO attack, which is what is likely coming. So what is Russia to do?
Syria is only marginally important to Russia, while Ukraine is crucial. I would expect Russia to answer an all-out attack NATO attack against Syria by recovering Ukraine, or at least, Novorossia in total – everything east of the Dnieper river and along the Black Sea coast. This makes sense from every angle. It is within convenient air cover, surrounded by Russian territory including Crimea, difficult for NATO to defend, has a large “fifth column” of pro-Russina Ukrainians waiting to be liberated, and resolves the Transnistria problem which NATO is attempting to stir up. Asymmetrical warfare. Strike where you are strong, don’t throw troops into a losing battle.
If NATO is busy attacking Syria, there will be little they can to to stop a Russian occupation and re-unification with Russian speaking Ukraine. And NATO will be left with the problem of supporting the non-viable Nazi rump Ukraine in the north-west, which the Russians would likely have the good sense to not occupy, while Russia will no longer have the problem of supporting Transnistria, which will be back home in the bosom of Mother Russia.
I don’t know how the Russian leadership has war-gamed this, but that is how I would play it. Maybe take the Baltics back while they are at it, and get rid of another Nazi thorn in their side as well as ending the isolation of Kaliningrad.
I think Putin is a follower of Marshall Zhukov: a chess player, not a poker player. Zhukov’s maxim was “Never start a battle unless you already know you will win it.” Think well ahead, move your pieces innocuously into place, and when you have a preponderance of forces lined up, make your move – checkmate! Zhukov never lost a battle, and he commanded every major battle in the Great Patriotic War from the Battle of Moscow in 1941 to final victory in the Battle of Berlin and the Battle for Manchuria in 1945. And two little know earlier battles against the Japanese in 1937 and 1938.
I’ve advocated that same thing. I think you are right. Or at least that is what they should do (regardless of Syria at all). Our only difference is I think they would (or should) liberate all of Ukraine. Don’t “occupy” it though. Set up a unity (pro-Russian) government and withdraw. Let that government de-nazify the country. Russia could (should ) assist them with equipment,volunteers,other aid. But it should be a Ukrainian force that “cleans their own stables”. Russia’s only job after that would be to keep foreign elements from causing trouble for the new government. And helping integrate its economy into the EEU.
Sounds like Afghanistan all over again. It’s true, history does repeat.
zhukov, how you respect him I dont know. he worked for you dont know who, made sure stalin had more years of tyranny, was a total tool of the elites, dealt death with no good purpose.
“I think Putin is a follower of Marshall Zhukov: a chess player, not a poker player. Zhukov’s maxim was “Never start a battle unless you already know you will win it.” Perhaps you are correct here. But in that case by definition Putin was sure he could win in Syria before the first bomb was dropped…..
I tend to disagree that Russia cannot “win” in Syria. As numerous commentators and analysts have already concluded Russia does not need a plane in theater or a boot on the ground to wage an effective war against Turkey or its allies in Syria. That was the reason for the early and very public demonstration of Russia’s cruise missile capabilities at the start of their intervention in Syria. When combined with the now in theater S-400 surface to air systems which effectively provide blanket coverage over 3/4’s of the entire country, the cost to the US in conventional forces in the event of war means that nuclear escalation would be a certainty. There will be no “war” in the Middle East between Russia and the US unless Israel uses yet another false flag to provoke one.
When you say “war” it’s important to say exactly what you are referring to. The USA and Russia have been at war since 2014 in Ukraine. It’s a proxy war. A second front has opened up in Syria. The Turkish shooting down of the Russian bomber is an escalation. And yet all out direct war between Russia and the USA is not going to happen as it would obviously mean the end of life on Earth. It is not going to happen as Russia’s nuclear arsenal is at least as effective as the USAs. Putin found a way to answer the Ukrainian coup and attempt to storm Crimea. He did so without taking over Ukraine entirely and giving carte blanche to western public opinion for a full scale NATO war buildup against Russia. The western public has zero appetite for a war with Russia which is another factor mitigating against all out war. In the Turkish shoot down western public opinion sided with the Russian view. Putin has found a way to act decisively against provocations without brining on WW3, he will do so again.
“The western public has zero appetite for war eith Rissia……………”
And since when has the opinion of the western public been of any importance or consequence to the evil vermin ruling the west ?
Indeed. And even if public opinion did matter, it would easily be swung back into the Empire’s favour the first time Putin shoots down a NATO plane.
If a major war breaks out between Russia and NATO, this public will have to fight it. When it has no appetite for war it will not perform well to say the least.
You saying the public will support war once Russia downs a NATO jet is a major assumption. During the US war against Viet Nam the American public became more and more anti war as the losses mounted.
The public in the West doesn’t seem to care about the things that arouse the Western establishment. Average Western whitey doesn’t like Turkey and will not get conscripted in order to defend the Turkish Republic. I think NATO can only escalate so much and Russia knows it.
The Vietnam War was in no way equivalent to this as far as the public is concerned. The people of the US were not so much concerned about the body count as they were at getting themselves or their sons unwillingly drafted into service. Today’s NATO forces are voluntary forces. No conscription. The public doesn’t really care about stopping a war if their sons are not at risk. Perhaps I am being cynical, but that’s how I see it.
” The public doesn’t really care about stopping a war if their sons are not at risk”.
But if WWIII breaks out they and their sons would become at risk, and conscription would be introduced, no getting away from it. The question for the European public would then become ” am I willing to go and die for Monsanto and Goldman Sachs and Exxon Mobil and ISIS ?
I think the days of mass army movements are over for the most part; therefore, no real need for conscription. The next war will likely be fought much differently than prior ones – more reliance on technology, missiles, robotics, special ops, air power, etc. Public opinion is relatively easily suaded in such conditions.
My opinion only, of course.
If that is true then public opinion would have no meaning at all. And the public can be dispensed with totally. I think there is something to what you say. But as the losses of those others mount. To keep the war going they must restart the draft. Even in Iraq it got very hard to keep enough manpower (constant crumbling from the troops). In a WW3,there would be a vastly increased need for troops. And once they threaten to (and do) restart the draft call-ups. Then the “sh.. will hit the fan”. The US public hasn’t been prepared for a massive war. Most would reject the idea of a war with Russia. And when “thousands” of 200’s start coming in. There might be that revolt people talk about. Especially since there is enough talk of nuclear war that people will be frightened already.
Victor you are right – post Vietnam no one cares if a volunteer gets dead or wounded – cannon fodder as Kissinger said so eloquently
The voters are no longer a factor in US – they can be juiced by any false flag pretext – unless Russia has pre- planned response game with Soleimani for massive Iranian / Iraqi / Afgani / Hezbollah boots to take out Turkey – game is short
the Russians have committed a lot of profile in this already – it is hard for me to agree with the author – regardless of France / Germany / US / UK coming into the game – Putin is smarter than to not know that was probability and Turkey was to be provocation given $$ to Sons of Erdogan
The natural gas from Gazprom to EU is lost within 30 months of end game and maybe Russia economy – if the Turks hold the Syrian property and Israel has Golan Heights reserves belonging to Assad
regret to say, political theater in the us is only because the population is so armed, reality is, votes make no difference. Everything electronic is compromised.
know the truth
If the vermin western elite believed that, MSM would not literaly follow Goebbels. No, the evidence clearly shows they regard the public opinion to a level of importance. The fact that the West still waged all these wars in the last 15-20 years against a significant portion of its domestic opinion attests to to something else: their evaluation that it did not constituted critical mass of dissidence. In any future mobilizations they’ll have to grind public opinion towards such objectives, the whole point of the false flags and its catalyzing effect.
Unfortunately for them, given the abuse of the technique, the frequency and short time span inbetween is resulting in diminishing returns. Not to mention the increasing difficulties at the level of the message substance the west has fitted itself with, becoming too confusing (ie. ISIL is bad but Assad is worse, Russia even worse yet more effective where it matters against the supposed lesser evil, the latter at the same time being perceived as the bigger evil). Though nut to crack.
MSM is not only fighting the reality it is tasked to mask, it is also fighting the dellusions it has built. Public opinion does matter and are weighed in the process.
» … end of life on Earth … Russia’s nuclear arsenal is at least as effective as the USAs. «
There’s no reason to keep on believing in these doomsday scenarios. Please see my comment (on another page on this blog) about how Nukes are a Huge Hulking Hoax and a Bombastic Boondoggle Bogeyman. It’s a shared hoax run by some governments against the sheeple and, quite possibly, other governments, and indeed entire nations.
So with this Bogus Bogeyman out of the picture, real weapons and real soldiers become much more important. Industrial espionage, such as practiced by Uncle Sam in Europe, especially Germany, becomes much more important. Even our modest Bundeswehr might be a stronger force than I reckoned. On a brighter note, Israel suddenly looks much more vulnerable. Iran much stronger. Russian torpedos and anti-ship missiles a significant factor that scares Uncle Sam’s terrorist navy.
Unfortunately, Turkey does have a strong army. About 350 Leo 2 tanks. On location. And Uncle Sam and his vassals will support it. Could anyone oppose this force in Northern Syria? I don’t think so. The Syrian Army has apparently been worn down by defending their country against NATO proxy terrorists. Russia is far away. How could Iran deploy troops? Would they want to?
War is best avoided. It must be seen as a perversion. About as honourable as child abuse. People in North America and Europe need to redevelop an understanding thereof, such as they appear to have had back in the hippie age. But I wasn’t yet born then so I only know from movies.
Any full scale Turkish attack on Syria could well be answered with tactical nukes.
In fact, I think it is imperative Russia deploys tactical nukes to Syria as a defensive move to defend Syria from outside aggression.
Correct me if I’m wrong – there are plenty of US nukes in Turkey are there not?
A fair move on Russia’s part given that.
» Correct me if I’m wrong – there are plenty of US nukes in Turkey are there not? «
No, there aren’t … for the simple reason that nukes are a hoax as per my comment linked above. Uncle Sam doesn’t have nukes, and neither does Russia, nor anyone else. Nukes don’t work, they’re a hoax. The world, including geopolitics, makes much more sense once you accept this truth. Plus, it is tremendously good news for the entire planet. Rejoice!
Your source isn’t even qualified to speak on nuclear physics, let alone run a web scam.
Syria has been so far spared widespread use of DU munitions; this is a good thing. Cleaning up after unexploded conventionals and explosive residues will take decades.
Then suggesting tac nukes? Tacs are a ridiculous option; the Syrian people have suffered enough without adding fallout and radiation sickness to their woes, and NATO would be pleased as punch to see Russia escalate, which is what they want to do. They want limited nuclear war; as if settling geopolitical differences can be settled in the geopolitical equivalent of a gentlemanly duel.
Nuclear waste remediation techniques and technologies do exist, so the Fukushima disaster is a little exaggerated, likely to try and save the nuclear material. That’s real alternative news on the cutting edge.
But this whole nukes are a hoax thing is suggestive of a Western ad hoc propaganda trial balloon to see how far captured alternative media can be used to push nutty warmongering ideas.
Well Lumi, nuclear terror surely does exist and I suppose it does us little good to be afraid of dying. If that’s your inspiration then it’s a good one.
We need to turn the tables on those responsible and what better way to do that then by taking complete control over our own thoughts.
We always have the power to say NO!
We do not believe your lies nor even in your
truths. Your science is suspect, your doctors are euthanists, your history is backwards and your teachers make us stupid.
So yeah, maybe nukes aren’t so important after all, especially if they make us forget everything we are told is a lie. We do have the power to create our own reality; including one that completely excludes WMD’s.
You folks don’t seem to understand the message sent to you by those old b/w photos of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Where Uncle Sam wants you to believe is the epicenter of a devastating “atomic bomb explosion”, slender trees can be seen, badly burnt, true; but defiantly standing in spite of the ravaging fire brought down upon these cities by democratic anglosaxon terrorist incendiary bombing.
Human bodies, Uncle Sam assures you, have been vaporized, leaving nothing behind, but these trees still stand, complete with branches, and some even with twigs.
It does not take a university degree to decipher this message. The practical common sense knowledge a boy or girl of twelve years has typically acquired is enough to understand that Uncle Sam is lying about what happened in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. For if his atomic phantasy were true, the trees would have been vaporized along with the human bodies.
The facts are evident and obvious, their observation is plain and simple.
No science is required to aid in comprehension, no presumptions needed to support speculation, no special inspiration demanded to read between the lines of history.
Only those blinded by an overkill of atomic propaganda will fail to see.
The surviving trees are telling you loud and clear that the Atomic Bomb is a Lie as explained by Anders Björkman.
If the atom bomb is a lie then so is science because a lot of science is based on it.. IE splitting an atom releases so much energy.. Which is like less than 5%.. a fission produces like less than 24%.. So there are far more powerful devices, we dont have anti matter which is 100% since the earth only holds a few mg of the stuff but Saturn holds a few kg in its magnetic fields. Singularity devices posses over 50% of the energy.. and now they are finding cosmic rays which used to exist long ago which are even more powerful than anti matter. It would be very hard to deny nuclear energy.. Then why even have moderators like heavy water.. Glow in the dark nuclear material release low levels of radiation, used also in many things like fire alarms and many isotopes in medicine.. Without the science of nuclear fission, none of this would exist.. Also how do you explain part of an island disappearing? Even the US cant move such a huge area in the middle of nowhere.. Photoshop did not exist then so it could be done by hand but still, people can get a boat and go check it in the middle of nowhere if they doubt it.
And the best example would be, if india did not fear nuclear devices they would have whacked Pakistan for at least 2 events.. The US would have already struck Russia as they have overwhelming force and US would not care about Russia firing a few thousand missiles into europe. If you saw mccaien you can believe they would not care even the russia was able to hit the US with a few thousand missiles.. compared to the almost 50,000 guns and Stalins organs used in the attack of Berlin, a few thousand missiles would not even be noticeable. Especially if many of the ones aimed at cities are shot down by missile defenses..
Dear mmiriww, it sounds like you didn’t actually read anything because you’re knocking down strawmen nobody but yourself has put up. Nuclear fission, as discovered by Otto Hahn in 1938 in Berlin, does exist. Nuclear power stations do work fine. You have not read Anders Björkman’s text, that much is obvious.
As for disappearing parts of islands, that is entirely possible such as in Krakatao by volcanic explosion. But I have no idea what island you’re referring to, and it doesn’t matter either because it is not central to the point Anders Björkman is making.
Your other points about India vs Pakistan and USA vs Russia is just the wildest of bang-boom-whizz speculation. Completely unsubstantiated. Uncle Sam is not a rabid dog or a mad scientist. Nor are the others.
Not a rabid dog… well, that’s a very forgiving interpretation of current geopolitical events. The American people are not uniformly rabid, but non-psychopaths don’t have any say in the American Government.
In any case, the exercise in abusing rhetorical logic, claiming nukes don’t exist, fails to explain why the U.S. doesn’t simply use conventional arms to achieve its foreign policy goals against nuclear-armed countries. After all, any failure by an opponent to respond with nukes can be attributed to the success of prompt global strike doctrine and the enemy’s shoddy tech capabilities, easily keeping the ‘nukes myth’ alive.
There is no reason to pussyfoot around North Korea, Syria, or even with Russia itself, if the overwhelming power of conventional arms remains the sole arbiter of military force. The West has a considerable qualitative edge in depth. That superiority has a shelf life; why not cash it in?
The democracy deficit in the West has grown to the point where the Pentagon can casually obliterate a recognized MSF hospital Afghanistan and no-one really can do anything about it except call “Shame, shame,” on the shameless. To whom such cries are not taunts, but acclaim, a declaration of untouchable power. There really is no meaningful antiwar movement in the West.
The phenomenon of surviving fauna at Hiroshima and Nagasaki is well-studied. .
The results of conventional terror bombing are also well documented.
No-one seems to make a big deal about fauna surviving conventional firebombings. There probably aren’t any since the process requires more bombing, therefore supporting the notion that nukes are real, with just one achieving some, but not all, of the effects of conventional terror bombing.
The Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were detonated well above ground with the intent of maximizing the damage radius and the firestorm was included in the calculation. The intention was to achieve with one plane and one bomb what took 300+ heavy bombers and thousands of incendiaries to achieve. Yet, all this work is written off as ‘propaganda’. Not to mention, a callous disregard of the suffering involved either way.
Bjorkman may as well be trying to say composite armour is a hoax and main battle tanks like the famed Lion of Babylon can be every bit as protected as an M1 Abrams.
Even with this far more detailed information than wikipedia presents on nuclear weapons, it would be impossible for India or China to duplicate chobham armour. They could come close, or make their own variants, but missing key information across the production chain, they could never duplicate the best composite armours used by Western militaries with just the general idea.
So, Bjorkman asserts that his interpretation of wikipedia information, which is good only for the most general information, and even then needs to be verified by non-wiki sources, could be used to debunk applied nuclear weapons physics.
The nukes-r-a-hoax argument is based on whatever logical fallacy ‘appeal to chutzpah’ is a variant of. Bjorkman even says, detractors are suffering from ‘cognitive dissonance’.
In order to prove him wrong, they would essentially have to demonstrate to him how to build an atomic weapon despite the holes in the publicly available information, because directions on how to build atomic weapons are no more public domain than any other restricted military technology.
That’s Bjorkman’s whole argument in a nutshell, an appeal to cognitive dissonance backed by misrepresented facts and empty conclusions based more upon commonsensespeak than common sense.
Claims that the U.S. never really landed on the moon are a more compelling exercise in abusing rhetorical logic.
removed. No attacking commenters please.Mod TR You know that they can do isotope analysis and find fission byproducts in these “fake” nuclear explosions, right?
Why tone down language would you believe that a critical mass causing an uncontrolled fission chain reaction could not exist? The science is absolutely proven. It’s not in dispute. by anyone.
In fact, the functionality of a forced critical mass was so well-established by science that they did not even bother to test the Little Boy device. Literally, if you smash a critical mass together physical, it will explode by coloumbic repulsion. And it will kick up dirt, cause a supersonic shockwave, and make a big cloud.
Hi trav777. If you add fission byproducts to an explosive device (TNT or whatever you want), radiation may be detected after the boom. No surprise here, right?
To illustrate the point, Uncle Sam could have democratically dumped nuclear byproducts along with the firebombs on Japanese children – wouldn’t have been a problem, just dump the stuff, that’s it – and afterwards these byproducts would have been detectable.
May have happened, I don’t know. But I think there was no point dumping these byproducts because Uncle Sam was to take 100 % control of the crime scene, wouldn’t allow other investigators on scene, so wouldn’t have to fool them with radiation. So I don’t see why he would have bothered. But maybe he did, to add realism. I don’t know. It is not central to the question.
To further corrobarate this point: You’ve surely heard of depleted uranium ammunition (DU), which was used by Uncle Sam in Iraq in 1991 and has caused many Iraqi children to contract cancer because DU turns to dust on impact and is then inhaled by humans and animals, negatively affecting their health. DU still contains some U-235. You can do isotope analysis and detect radioactivity at the impact zone, but of course that doesn’t prove the occurrence of any nuclear explosion, right?
Why do I not believe in critical mass? Because clear evidence is given by the surviving trees in Hiroshima and Nagasaki that no atomic bomb went boom there; clear evidence which for some reason you’re not addressing.
Nothing at all is proven about the atomic bomb; it’s all shrouded in military secret. And yes, as you can read here, it is being disputed. Some people are disputing it.
The fact that the Hiroshima device was never tested but worked instantly is just another reason to be suspicious of the story, although it does not by itself constitute proof against the feasability of the atomic bomb or the occurrence of a nuclear explosion such as presented by Uncle Sam.
If you smash what you think is a “critical mass” together, it will go clang, not boom, just as everyday life experience tells us.
Again, if nukes are fake, then why didn’t they just do to Baghdad what they allegedly did to Hiroshima?
Just doctor a MOAB with radioactive byproducts, set it off close to the U.S. Army’s Saudi staging camps so everyone can see a nuclear-like explosion, and blame it on Saddam. Voila, cassis belli to go ‘nuclear’ against Saddam. No embarrassing scenes trying to explain why no WMDs were found.
No messy occupation either. Its hard to believe no-one in the professional military thought of it during the planning stage if an armchair amateur militarist can dream it up on the fly. It doesn’t even have to be an Operation Northwoods-style own-goal, just a near miss.
Unless, nukes are real and such frauds can be easily discerned by people who know what they are talking about. Unless, nukes are real and really take the fun out of conventional warfare.
Russia today is much removed from the darkest days immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union. About another thirty years of relative peace and Russian industrial infrastructural momentum will propel it into a position of world leadership, if not necessarily hegemony, comparable to the U.S. in the 1990s.
If nukes are fake, the clock is ticking on conventional superiority. All those missed opportunities, from Korea to Cuba to Ukraine.
Russia would not need to use tactical nukes to oppose a full blown Turkish invasion of Syria. Fuel air explosive bombs and launch of cruise missiles on Turkish assembly and rear points would leave their army’s spearheads with heavy losses and an increasingly sparse logistical train. Iran would send troops to fight the Turks head on, trade space for time, and focus on Smerch and cluster munition attacks to inflict maximum casualties on the Turks.
No, even a fanatic and gangster like Erdogan who believes his own BS would not be such a madman. At least I don’t think so. This gambit in Iraq is about protecting the ISIS/Daesh and Barzani oil trade, and secondarily about baiting the Russians into doing something about it. Already we’re seeing Holman Jenkins, the Wall Street Journal and swarms of NATO twitter warriors argue Russia is a paper tiger because it can’t do anything without risking the Bosporus cut off. But what these shills forget is that Turkey can’t cut off the flow of Iranian arms and fighters to the Shi’a Iraqis nor can they stop the PKK from killing Turks with the latest Russian Kornet missiles making any Turkish occupation of N Iraq a bloody affair indeed. In the meantime Turkey can continue harassing the Syria express and producing laughable photoshop fakes of ‘Russian soldiers’ on the deck of ships pointing MANPADs at no one in particular. But the Empire in my opinion will continue harassment and propaganda but won’t risk all out war in which its Turkish proxies get annhilated and NATO/Israeli vaunted technology in the Turks hands’ gets exposed as inferior to what the Russians and Chinese can give the Persians.
Actually the US does it too.. All naval vessels protect themselves when they are in an enclosed area because of the attacks by suicide boats and such. Maybe using drones etc.. It is pointless for fighter aircraft as you can not see an aircraft 5-10 km up and they would use laser targeting.. So I don’t think its fake.. Maybe Russia only recently started doing it, US has been doing it for a decade. In fact a lot of fishermen have died because US naval vessels have shot them because they failed to move out of the way. The last one was like 10 indian fishermen in the Persian gulf.. Russia not flying the turkish flag now is also new.
I like that: War is child abuse.
Not that war isn’t a whole lot of other awful things, such as a racket, hell, maiming, death, and other catastrophes
But the idea of child abuse packs a huge emotional wallop with so many people, so many Americans. Child abuse is the exact opposite, as an image, of mom and apple pie. It might get through the propaganda fog.
Hi Lumi, I’m sorry, but the linked page you’re referring to is just full of non-sense. To drop a few examples :
– “ICBMs are a hoax” – well, satellite launches are as well ?
– “An atomic explosion is allegedly only fission (see below) producing clean, pure energy – a flash”. Well, no serious guy ever pretended that. May be your author is confused with “fission” and “fusion” ? The latter, theoretically, could produce clean energy, but hasn’t been properly achieved so far on earth. The former, by definition, is dirty, breaking atoms into smaller pieces. By the way, mushrooms clouds are just a result of thermodynamic laws, and aren’t exclusive to nuclear explosions.
– “There are two fission chain reactions; one precisely controlled and one that cannot be controlled – after it has started.” There is only one fission chain reaction. When a fission reaction is controlled for it not to lead to explosion, neutrophages are used. When it is controlled to lead to explosion, reflectors can be used.
– “Nuclear fission in a nuclear power plant just produces energy, heat, when the uranium atoms are split into smaller atoms. No smoke!” In a NPP, the chain fission reaction is controlled as not to be explosive. The fission products are meant to be kept in their zirconium claddings.
Actually, almost every single line could be refuted there…
Hi Luciole, the nonsense is not in Anders Björkman’s pages, but rather in misunderstanding them.
(1) Launch is not the problem, re-entry is. (2) Non-energy fission products (just some kg of matter) can’t account for the alleged giant mushroom clouds, which are full of matter. (3) You misunderstood … He’s not saying himself there are two kinds of chain reaction. He’s pointing you to the conundrum posed by the established theory of an alleged uncontrollable chain reaction on the one hand when on the other hand you have (b) peaceful nuclear power stations that work fine and will never explode like the alleged bomb, implying two types of chain reaction. Himself he says there’s only kind of chain reaction, which will not lead to explosion. (4) He says fission will never lead to explosion but to melting of the fissile matter, thereby destroying the container, eventually dispersing the fissile matter, stopping or slowing fission.
Sounds like you’ve read only superficially what Anders Björkman wrote, thus arriving at various misunderstandings.
The 2 types of chain reactions are fission and fusion.. But controlled and uncontrolled are the impurities in them. Thats why in nuclear power plants they use moderators like water or salt. And you are right, fission wont lead to an explosion as we seen in naturally occurring areas. It just creates heat.. Which is why you smash them together using implosion to create a critical mass so it becomes uncontrollable. Which is why you need PURE uranium to do it. It is the same way a gas cylinder can be used to cook your food.. Uncontrolled blows up the building.. So dont tell us that dont happen because in the last year dozens of people have died when gas cylinders blew up.
The science is well understood.. Because almost all technological advancement now is from that very science.. You know this is not some secret black project like scalar weapons and such. Talking about science taught in high school and experimented with rather easily just makes you look worse than naive. You yourself can do most of these experiments.. Medical science using radioactive isotopes are one of the most researched topics on the planet..
Who ever this Anders is, he don’t seem to even have the level of understanding of passing high school physics classes.. And here I am doubting some of the way out science of the big bang and what not. The energy of which are trillions of times higher. Where 99.9999% of the energy was even destroyed leaving us with out universe.. That minuscule amount makes up many billions of galaxies, each containing hundreds of billions of stars.. which is a small percentage of the energy in the universe itself.. The sun itself would not work without fusion.. But to doubt something that we work with everyday.. Thats beyond belief.. This is NOT rocket science.. It is high school science for the most part.. We cant do fusion but we sure can do fission experiments and we do.. The WE means us, me, you.. the dumb idiots sitting behind keyboards offering advice to people like Putin on how to run the world..
Lumi, this is not the place for lenghty discussions about whether or not nuclear weapons are a hoax. Just add one (1) post with the links you want us to read, along with a few sentences about the links.
Maybe you are having this discussion on other forums too, and if so, add the links to them.
I will approve one (1) post with your links.
All other posts from you about nuclear weapons being a hoax, will be put aside for the Saker to decide on.
» … this is not the place for lenghty discussions about whether or not nuclear weapons are a hoax. «
Okay, seeing this only now. Will stop. I was just giving answers …
No, I don’t post on any other forums. Only here.
huh? The fission reaction occurs at a far faster rate than melting or physical deformation of the physics package
Single particle vs stochastic chain reaction, of course — which reaction is referred to, seems to me.
But you, I’ll bet if you google you can find courses in nuclear physics —
I like this guy Leonard Susskind at Stanford
And see there’s at least one from MIT — http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/nuclear-engineering/22-101-applied-nuclear-physics-fall-2006/
Why would anyone have to rely on what Lumi, or any of us, say when such resources are freely available for those interested? Pretty much the same goes for all the sciences. Take 20 or 30 hours out of your busy 70 year lifetime and get some expertise on reality.
Yes, I agree with the Saker that NATO-GCC-Israel will continue with their provocations. And yes, despite my extreme joy and optimism at the start of the Russian campaign in Syria, I was well aware of the weakness of the Russian forces in the ME, surrounded by numerous and powerful foes. I am also of the opinion that the Russian leadership is considering serious options on how to at some stage respond with force at NATO’s provocations.
Also, there can be no doubt that Turkey acted with the full approval of NATO, despite the muted reaction from the Alliance.
We must make no mistake here, Russia is in a war of survival with NATO. This war as a UNILATERAL declaration on the part of NATO which cannot tolerate Russia’s independent stance.
There was also a more recent provocation on the part of NATO, or rather from its unofficial member, Israel, when they airstriked an abandoned warehouse outside of Damascus. Even though the target had no value, the message is still clear on the part of the Empire of Degenerates.
These are extremely dangerous times we are living in, but if push comes to shove, I would wholeheartedly support Russia to the bitter end against NATO. Up to and including the use of nuclear weapons.
BTW. Does anyone know of any realistic options available to Russia if the filthy Turks decide to close the straights? Would a route from St. Petersbourg and around Gibraltar do the trick? Or even from Vladivostock and through Suez?
If they close the straights…well thats almost another act of war. Hm…the Saker is right that Russias forces in Syria are not that big, but they also support the Syrian army. I have no information on the size and amount of cargo they ship to Syria…but doesn´t Russia has really HUGE transportation air crafts? Couldn´t that be an option? Sure it would be more expensive….
WHERE are the Iranians?!
If the Russian strategic calculation excludes them — well then — this is an an entirely different ball game.
If it includes them, we have nothing to worry about.
WHERE are the Iranians?!
That is, indeed, THE question and I did not touch upon it today, but I plan to do so for next’s weeks analysis. Yes, I also ask myself this question over and over again.
Very good point!
It would be interesting to know what the Iranian visit to Damascus last week was about. Why would such a high official come to visit Assad. Of course it might have been just a social call and to show support. But it also might be to discus important future actions.
This was definitely NOT a courtesy visit by the Iranian delegation.
The delegation was headed by the most trusted advisor of the SL of Iran , namely Dr. Ali Akbar Velayati , who in the last couple of years ‘ metamorphosed’ into an extraordinary great personality with deep , deep strategic thinking. He then visited Seyyed Nasrallah.
Major General Qassem Soleimani is currently in Moscow, in your analysis you forget to take into consideration Iran, both Russia, Iran, Iraq and their regional allies will fight. Iran has drawn it’s red line, Russia has agreed, no more loose talk from Lavrov about the possibility that Assad could be out for peace to be given a chance.
The weakness I have seen in what could be termed the resistance countries is their independence.
They have no mutual defence agreements like NATO.
There are advantages to being non aligned and independent, but in times like this it is a huge weakness.
This point is perfect and brilliant ! In fact, this proved to be the Achilles heel of the Non-Aligned Movement. Founded in 1961, here were immediately, military engagements of the Founder-Nations with NATO, so to say. India liberated Goa from Portuguese occupation and Sukarno’s Indonesia launched a struggle for Dutch-occupied New Guinea. Both Nehru and Sukarno requested Nasser to deny the Portuguese and Dutch Navies entry into the Suez Canal, and Nasser obliged in his own way. The Americans were furious at Nehru, not so much for what he did in Goa, but for the incidental assertion, that he enabled , by brown-skinned upstarts of authority over the Canal, neighbouring the oilfields, the “greatest strategic prize in the world”. The US and UK sponsored a resolution in the Security Council against India , which the Soviet Union vetoed. (The first, but not the last of these vetoes so priceless to us in India.) But, in 1967, when Israel destroyed Arab Air Forces on the ground, it revealed the weakness and non-existence of military cooperation among non-aligned countries. United Arab Republic (Egypt) of Nasser had grave training deficiencies in its military, which could have been addressed by cooperation with India.
There is not an IOTA of doubt in my mind that the SL of Iran , Ayatollah Khamenei will keep his alliance with Putin and whatever was negotiated between him and Putin in Tehran 2 weeks ago , will be strictly observed , no matter the costs and consequences.
Iran says today that Syria is a red line, only Syrians can elect their Presidenthttp:
maybe more calls from NATO etc for Eu to take more refugees are clearing the battle ground of collaterals……………..
France. Uk efforts bound to fail, by Assad.
Sara wagenknacht speech-Paris was caused by french and Belgian civilians…yet you bomb Syria etc.
maybe Iran Iraq axis can develop————–is a land supply route available from Rus via Caucusus to Syria? Probably not if Turkish 1200 are getting into the act of north east Syria, and Uk extends flights in that direction from Iraq…………..
good to have you back!
next , a Scott sitrep would be fab re crazee land Ukraine
This is quite unusual considering we’re talking about the head of state of a so-called “ally”:
Ist Erdogans Sohn der Ölminister des IS?
Is Erdogan’s Son the Oil Minister of the Islamic State?
While the article states that “final, conclusive proof is not there”, the reader is left with the distinct impression that all the allegations are true and the Erdogan family is basically the Anatolian terrorist version of the Corleone mafia clan.
The Handelsblatt is one of the top German mainstream newspapers.
Soon it is time to take war to the House of Saud and Al Jazeera.
My half hope, half expectation, is Russia and Iran have decided the Iranians should keep a very low profile until ready to strike.
If all goes well, I hope to see a redux of the strategy used at the gates of Moscow in 1941. Suddenly — massively, I want to see bearded Siberians marching over the corpses of captogen soaked jihadi monkeys.
I would not be entirely surprised if they were marching alongside Russians and fully supported by the Russian air force. This would make sense to me unless Putin is strategically inept and is willing to sacrifice all his soldiers and airmen gambling on a relatively weak and heavily exposed intervention in Syria.
Israel will freak if large numbers of Iranians suddenly begin marching in the direction of al Quds. Thus far a cornerstone of the Russian strategy has been to slowly boil the zio-frog entity.
Turkey will also freak but here I judge them a paper tiger. Turkish special forces are high quality but otherwise their military is in relative or complete dissarray; possibly even bordering on rebellion.
Which means the situation remains exactly as it was before Turkey downed the Su-24. The bad guys are losing badly. NATO-Gladio, Israel and their neocon supporters are isolated and see their ISIS dream very nearly at the point of being vanquished.
So despite all the tension, I think the Iranians are coming in huge numbers and if not I know absolutely nothing.
The saker –Where are the Iranians?
When last heard of the Iranians were reportedly heavily involved in the relief of the SAA airfield near Raqqa
That was nearly 2 weeks ago, i think
Since then ? No info
This is probably a good sign,
Not advertising their location until they popup and whack some headchoppers is a wise move, otherwise the Anglo-ZioNasty scum might try to target them
Apparently theres only 2000 of them, which isnt a good sign regarding Iranian commitment to the future of Syria, imho
Iran is in both Syria and Iraq with boots intel and weaponry. If and when more are needed more will appear. And any attack on Iran will be paid by Israel. Better tell the neocons that.
“Where are the Iranians ?”
They are still being held in reserve until hostilities break out. I have no worries regarding the Iranians, what I will like to know is where are the Chinese ?
This war is about ten years too soon for China. They have a lot of men and materiel, but no way to move much of it to the Middle East. So other than providing economic and diplomatic support, they will pretty much have to sit this one out.
China will have it’s first military base in Djibouti
I think you’re being kind on China. They have their own agenda and can very easily fall short when Russia or an ally needs them the most.
China is the same country that mercilessly crushed the most benign domestic social movements imaginable, routinely allows exports of poisonous products, and rips off all military technology that they come across. Let’s never forget their betrayal of USSR, as it was finally making way economically.
Ah, a typical screed from the rotting bowels of empire. You can say what you like about China, but let’s see you try to deny that the Great Wall exists, and that it was built for defense. The Wall may be too large to make disappear, even for your great talent at dishonesty.
You might want to get off your self-righteous soap box.
All nations act according to their percevied national interest–this includes Russia.
Do you think Russia really is in Syria simply, or even primarily, to “fight terrorism”? If you do, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I want to sell you.
This is the same Russia that provided NATO and America with military transport corridors through Russia in order to aid in the West’s phony War on Terrorism in Afghanistan.
Russia is in Syria for geostrategic control of energy resources and to expand its own influence in the region–no different from the great “democracies” of America, Europe, and the Anglophone Axis nations in general.
Except your great democracies are pure evil incarnate in the flesh.. And they expand their influence by first subjugating the natives. Slavery is like white on rye.. All the talk about freedom, democracy, progress etc etc etc… They kill us with bullshit….
My thoughts exactly
Iran still being strung along with the carrot bait of dragging out the final final final (yes, we really mean it!) IAEA legal paper agreement.
Their press .ir sites have posted many times these past many months stating “there are NO Iranian troops deployed, dammit!” to counter the ‘sightings’ by all the usual liars of those troops in the field, but no one reads it.
The Straights are always the bottle neck. The Black Sea Fleet is and can be confined to the Black Sea.
Very true. Which is why Russia needs to sit up a “real” naval base in Syria,not just a part time docking situation. That way they would have a “Sevastopol” setup in the Med. And the Black Sea fleet could have a second home port. If it looked like Turkey was going to close the Straits much of the fleet would be able to move out first. And unlike in the Black Sea Russia would not be constrained by legal limits on the tonnage of its military ships.There are important reasons to have that naval base in the Eastern Mediterranean. It would be able to “watch” Israel and Southern Turkey. And be pretty close to the Suez Canal as well. If Russia’s intention is to wield influence in the MENA. Bases in a friendly Syria,grateful to Russia for helping them to survive could be very important. Syria also (as the empire very well knows) is the bridge for Iran to wield influence through Iraq (a very important future ally) through to the hook-up with Russia at the Mediterranean Sea.That region in ancient days was called the “Fertile Crescent” and including Palestine reached to Egypt. Now its sometimes called the Shia Crescent since unlike most of the MENA, taken together the Shia are a majority of the total population there.
No, the Turks can’t bottle up the Black Sea Fleet. All they can do is start a big war. 150 years ago, Admiral Farragut blew open a navigable hole in a line of wrecks and massive chains the Rebels laid across the river to keep the Yankee navy out of the port of New Orleans. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. You can’t keep ships out where they really want to go. Sooner or later, the great powers will have space-based laser weapons that will blast the sh*t out of anything on the planet obstructing their path anyway, so Erdo can aspire to jack of all….jack.
I think there is one problem with your analysis. You think NATO is unified in this and they all pull on the same string. Considering after Stoltenbergs first “we stand behind Turkey comments”, there was an immediately “leak” that most member states where NOT ok with this, i call bullshit.
Also the western media couldn´t burry the facts, and there is still enough independent press that covered this. Hell, even bigger outlets here in Austria reported on the Russian findings, so no, there was no media block of this. They just tried to ignore it, especially in europe because(!) it would make the politicans who worked with Turkey on the refugee plans look like idiots.
Also, never believe that the people in Europe stand behind this EU and Turkey crap or for NATO, good luck finding people willing to fight for the US against Russia, i can already see the headlines when this happens “people burn down goverment buildings and hang them” …yes there are always idiots falling for this, from my experience though, there is no Russophobic in middle europe. Actually we percive Nato as the enemy^^
So if you are from Austria and follow events closely and also talk to people, then you should be able to tell whether the average Austrian (or even German, Swiss, Hungarian, Czech Dutch etc) buys all this propaganda over Russian aggression.
So, could you confidently state that at least a sizable minority can see through the lies and pull the carpet beneath their politicians and MSM propaganda?
I have very close friends in Germany, Hungary (i live near the border), Switzerland, and well obviously in Austria :)
There are people who believe it, but they are the minority not the other way around. I can´t say for sure if my observations are spot on, as i tend to not surround myself with people who don´t ask questions. However, the state media is pretty biased. You see, i was never much into politics before, but knowing some people in Ukraine brought the whole conflict pretty close to me and i realized pretty fast that the “official” reports can never be true. It just didn´t made any sense. So i got a reality check and a shock quite fast, realizing in what a media controlled narrative we live in.
Big papers and the state channel are full of nonsense. After some while you can easily spot whats a lie by just listening to their false rhetoric. Naturally there are people who get influenced by this.
Generally speaking though, all the people i´m talking to, don´t see Russia as an aggressor, i mean the whole “Russia invaded Ukraine” business? People tend to laugh about that because they know very well, if that was the case then a different flag would be waving over Kiev.
Saddly. The media tends to ignore the suffering of east Ukraine, almost completely. Because it doesn´t fit into the official story. People would be outraged. To an extend they are allready. We don´t understand why our idiotic goverment follows the EU line in sanctions, because we tend to hold our neutrality dear to us. And while there has been bad blood with Russia in the past, we tend to share the Russian mentality that former enemies can be friends. Historicaly speaking we have been both. Germans, in my experience, also don´t see Russians as enemies, there is surprisingly a lot of love for it, and ironically in eastern Germany! And i simply was not once confronted with an anti russia sentiment. What you can find though, are people being pissed about sanctions, about an increasingly authoriterian EU, people protesting against Kiev “wannabe nazis” (some are very aware whats going on in Donbass), against Nato and the EU.
In a lot of newspapers we have reader corners, with letters printed from the readers. I have yet to see one thats against Russian movies or in favour of US/EU moves. The opposit is the case.
i really like the Saker, but i think he falls into the trap of generalizing the european nations. The people may have a lot of common but are also very different in every country, no matter how small it is. This distinctions are also the reason why the European Union will never work, and why more and more are against it and current politican parties, who sold us (out) to it are loosing support and voters in waves.
Speaking for myself, i would rather have Putin as a leader OF Austria then what we have now. And no, i don´t believe he is a saint, i´m pretty sure he has enough bodies in the cellar so to speak. But good luck finding a politican who hasnt :)
As for a war, i just don´t see the people of Europe being unified and willing to fight against anyone. The europe today is actually a lot different from WW1-2 europe. I think if a conflict starts against Russia, Nato will break apart and the rulling parties in the countries will have their hands full of not getting shred to parts. But who knows what the future brings, we have enough on our hands with unwanted (again a media campain…most people are NOT in favor of this) “refugees”.
I would also say that at least a seazable minority is sceptic about the official news and that number is steadily growing. But most of the people don’t dare to show openly their dissent to the “published opinion”.
There’s information circulating the internet that Germany will have received 1.5 million “refugees” in 2015. And a considerable number of them even entered German soil without being registered.
So we have roundabout 50.000 US soldiers based on a permanent base in Germany. We still have that hidden NATO stay-behind structures, with German secret services being controlled from the US.
And in addition to that potential of repression we now have a clandestine army in stand-by Modus of some ten thousand misguided muslim fighters.
So in my opinion, once a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia occurs, the majority of the people in Germany won’t support that confrontation and eventually they would start to revolt. In such a case the US will act to let the situation in Germany explode.
You think NATO is unified in this and they all pull on the same string
No. I think that NATO is run by the USA and that member states have no say in what NATO does. Just like the EU is also run by the USA. All of Europe is basically a castrated and spineless continent which the USA have turned into a voiceless colony. Hollande’s latest debacle with Obama is just another illustration of that.
Correct! I will go so far as to say that USA is fully ready to use the brainless/clueless/retarded Europeans, all of them on the continent of Europe as Cannon Fodder.
Think about how such a war may progress, if it starts, it will be on the continent of Europe,
even if Russia uses tactical nukes, as seem likely, it’s only Europeans that get screwed.
US mainland has the luxury of watching to see how things progress,
if Russia does not use nukes, hey, keep fighting, the more dead Russians or Europeans the better,
if Russia uses nukes, oops, sorry, but only mostly Europeans killed…
The only question is why are Europeans so brainless/clueless/retarded.
Especially now. For a while it made an odd kind of sense. When the European economy was growing and their industries were riding high, while geopolitical issues in Europe’s neighbourhood were relatively muted, a European perspective that said “Let the Americans spend themselves into the ground pulling moves which will on average benefit us nearly as much as them while we ignore the geopolitics and use the money we would have spent on the military to invest in our economies” had its merits. Sure, they lost a bit because the US motives didn’t map perfectly onto the motives of European countries, so they could have gained something by a more muscular foreign policy of their own, but the gain might not have been worth the opportunity cost of the extra 3% or so of GDP they would have had to spend on the military.
But where we’re at currently is quite different; US policies and misadventures are directly imposing huge costs on Europe, and their economic project has been stalled by the economic takeover of US-influenced financial interests. US geopolitical stances are costing them trade with Russia and quite likely central Asia. US military and covert actions, and their own collaboration with those actions, are creating massive waves of immigrants and domestic political instability from the reactions to those immigrants. Meanwhile, toeing the US-backed neoliberal line is crippling their economies and, again, worsening domestic political instability.
If countries were actually run in the name of some kind of broad “national interest”, or even the interest of relatively broad national elites, most European states would be adopting very different policies from what we are seeing. Europe is being run by international banksters, the Goldman Sachs farm teams and the City of London bastards, with assists from the CIA and other American spooks. They don’t care if European countries go down the tubes as long as they get to grab the assets.
“Europe is being run by international banksters”
That seems to be big factor close to the heart of things, and yet there must be more at work because those guys don’t want to see EU destroyed. Maybe they don’t thnik it could happen, or maybe they could escape it, and yet people can get locked into ideas and thinking so they don’t feel free to change.
The politicians want to stay in power so they are subject to the money and deep state powers, and much of that is centered in the US or UK who don’t expect to be targets.
But all of this assumes a level of rationality, as opposed to group think lunacy and structural organization that’s locked into a dysfunctional system. Look at some analysis of a dysfunctional family, such as described in transactional analysis (‘Games People Play’ for instance) and notice how everyone is hurt by the roles they play, and are yet bound by them because it’s too expensive, individually, to abandon them, or there is no readily available alternative.
In evolution there is a thing which can happen that dooms a species to extinction: local optimization. A species evolves various characteristics which optimize survival and reproduction within is given environment (such as specialized mouths for eating a certain sort of plant), but if the environment changes they die off because those characteristics stop it from competing or surviving under different conditions, and they can’t revert or develop some other characteristics fast enough to adapt. Same thing can happen to workers with specialized skills to produce something outmoded by technological change — and then find themselves unemployable.
It’s the dependency that does them in.
We see the same thing when the empire moves into a nation and makes them dependent on foreign markets so they can no longer grow food to meet their own needs, and thus gains control of it. Or if a huge retailer contracts with a supplier for something, and the supplier goers into debt to tool up to make it, and then the retailer insists on paying continually lower prices so the supplier may even eventually go bankrupt. Russia is still working it’s way to re-establish it’s dependence on western markets and finance, and China faces the same problem. So this is a known strategy by the empire and the financiers — but even they themselves can fall victim to local optimization and dependency — and in the end, go extinct.
Yes. I do agree with the sentiment that the USA did this. The same goes for the EU. But that has not to be a permanent state. And while the US clearly run NATO, that does not mean that the member states would follow them into a war against Russia, or China for that matter. This is a pretty wild speculation and nothing more. Not to mention with what armies? I mean…just look at Germany, they are not going to do anything for that matter.
So i disagree, also calling all of Europe “a castrated and spineless continent” while living in the land of the retards is kinda ironical. ;)
» All of Europe is basically a castrated and spineless continent which the USA have turned into a voiceless colony. «
This nails it. There’s plenty food on the table and football on TV. As for the rest, what do we know, why should we care? So there. What more do you need?
But I agree with cirdanx and Valjean72 that once we are called upon to fight in a major European war, this may change. Because a lot of people will die in such a war. And they won’t be able to hide it. The question will be, what are we fighting for?
Of course, our rulers anticipate such a situation, which is why we see a militarization of police ford, crowd riot control (RSU CRC, google it!), suspension of civil rights such as in France, etc.
There was definitely a block – a total black-out in fact in the anglo MSM.
TERRIBLE ! Que le Ciel guide et soutienne Vladimir Poutine dans cet affrontement titanesque !
C’est drôle, n’est ce pas, comment la Russie et les ÉU ont changés leurs rôles dans le monde après la Guerre Froide; l’un le défendeur des Chrétiens, l’autre l’Empire du Mal.
Google translation: Funny, isn´t it, how Russia and the US have changed their roles in the world after the Cold War; one defendant of Christians, the other Evil Empire. Please try to translate your comments.Thanks. Moderator-EK
Thanks for translating that EK. I have thought the same, that US and Russia have swapped roles.
Russia is now the force for freedom.
As a German and European patriot I’m more and more convinced that the US were never at any point “the Force of freedom”. It’s just that they wrote the history books, they control all of the mass media and they’ve got the convinving power of Hollywood.
Freedom for US Business to conquer the planet is the only real aspect of “Freedom Promotion” the USA’s ever done. Essentially, the Open Door policy never died nor the unequal treaties that underpin it. All of it enforced by the military as Friedman noted in the one factual thing he ever wrote.
From my perspective as a historian of the Outlaw US Empire, it hasn’t ceased waging war since 1941, and is the global fascist empire Hitler dreamed of achieving. To defeat it, an international coalition similar to that used against Hitler is required, just as Putin stated. In his recent speeches, I think Putin lumps NATO in with the terrorists, since they’ve proven to be one and the same. So, when he speaks of the war against international terrorism, I believe he’s talking about the need to uproot its sponsors and destroy the conditions that allow it to arise–which means changing the current paradigm lock, stock and barrel.
” I think Putin lumps NATO in with the terrorists, since they’ve proven to be one and the same. So, when he speaks of the war against international terrorism, I believe he’s talking about the need to uproot its sponsors and destroy the conditions that allow it to arise”.
You are right and I got that impression too. As these various groups cannot continue to exist by themselves without the support of their foreign sponsors they are practically indivisible from them.
President Putin wasn’t voicing this out loud but for all those who realise what the nature of ISIS is they can draw their own references.
What an excellent overview and analysis! Many thanks…
ps US Preparing Airbase in Northeast Syria: Reports
“KURDISTAN, closer than ever to betray Syria ??” by Tito Andino U. for Euskal Herria Sozialista:
Interesting analysis of November 29 where is expected an unnatural alliance of leftist YPG with Iraqi Kurds led by Barzani and the Democratic Forces of Syria (aka moderate rebels) all managed / trained / funded by US / NATO / Israel. It also discusses the creation of Great Kurdistan in Northeastern Syria probably lead to a civil war in Turkey, for the subsequent Turkish Kurds claim of a similar project for them and that, therefore, Turkey, with the downing of Russian aircraft it has dug its own grave, losing its best option in Syria, Russia.
In the final analysis, in the comments section, Euskal Herria Sozialista is upgrading one last time news on the alliance with the YPG broken because the “allies” Free Syrian Army have started bombing Kurdish positions.
I guess this is off topic but I think you will enjoy this —
and a demonstration of what 12 year old boys do instead of playing video games like Americans..
Artur Gachinsky – Russian ice-dancing boy
Blew me away watching this.
Since ‘Odessa’ they know they can do anything against a moderate(means weak for them) Putin…I’m not a hurrah patriot,but you must understand the way of thinking of these western puppets.Any sign of weakness is seen as an invitation to continue their ‘sacred mission’.
Odessa,8000 deads + 20.000 wounded in the Donbass,destruction everywhere,the last grid events against Crimea…we let Mariupol and other pro russian cities to the ukies without fighting..the 3 billions usd credit from RF to Ukraine which will not be repaid at all before the 20th of dec.All flights banned to and from RF.Sanctions(and more coming),Syria,Montenegro in NATO,Georgia soon,Biden as a king in Kiev several times,journalists and pro russian mp’s killed,Nemtsov killing in front of the Kemlin,RF expelled from G8,9 th of may in Moscow(no one from the west present),Minsk 1 and 2(Kiev will never ever respect it and it has become the right argument to go ahead with the sanctions forever),Fake elections,the FIFA scandal with the goal to cancel 2018 soccer world cup and give it to the UK,the cancelled delivery of the two MistralCharter flight downed in Egypt,SU downed by Erdogan,1 million + refugees in RF etc etc..how many billions lost?Not to forget the ruble which lost 55 pct, the oil price(the brent at 43 usd from 120 usd 2 years ago)…it looks more as an humiliation than a victory.
if this is not a WW3 I don’t know not what it is?
It took less events to start WW1 and WW2.
This is a very long list of weaknesses.This must be stopped.The west needs a ‘good lesson’,don’t worry if it happen they will stop immediatetly because they are the REAL WEAKS…I don’t ask Putin to start a nuclear war of course…but there are other options left…in the shadow,being military and or financial.
Don’t forget that THE ONLY thing which is important which really counts for these bastards is their money,their confort…nothing else.
Their plan was probably when they started the maidan to take over all of The Ukraine(including Crimea),let the Ukraine join NATO and later the EU…it did not go as forseen with the Crimea take over by Putin,and then it was a chain reaction.They can not back down otherwise they are finished.They are already bankrupted.They want to destroy RF,the BRICS,China(see what is happening to Roussef in Brazil now..impeachment which is one more CIA coup).They managed to regain Argentina in their orbit.Chile will follow.
They just accepted one small defeat,letting the yuan in the IMF dts basket..but who knows if there is no hidden deal between the US and China?)I don’t trust these Chinese too much.
When i saw last year Putin making a lot a big deals with Erdogan,China,India,Egypt etc…I said to myself…want to see it happen to believe it.These countries are not reliable partners.
We just got a sample now with Erdogan behavior(he said today that he will buy his gas in Qatar).
Mc Cain killed the southstream…now there is a big lobbying against the Northstream 2…by the usual suspects(Poland,the Baltics,Ukraine,Slovakia,Bulgaria…)
Putin still has the support of the Russian population but untill when?
What will happen if he MUST send boots on the ground as well?And hundreds of body bags are back home?This is A Carter and Mc Cain dream for two years(ukraine and syria).
They believed at first that the Donbass war,the sanctions,the inflation due to the fall of both the ruble and the oil price would push the Russians to revolt and ‘maidan’ against Putin..it did not work.
It did not work either with Nemtsov as well.Now the Charter in Egypt still no reaction to the contrary…and finaly the SU downed by Erdogan.
They will not stop even if they need more false flags in the West,more refugees in Europe,whatever necessary will be done and accepted by puppets like Hollande,Merkel or Camoron.
Their goal now is to activate the fifht column by saying to them”look,Putin will soon bring RF to war’it is time to act now to avoid that,it is urgent…by a ‘coup’ or even killing him.
They know that with Medvedev of even a ‘worse’ one,they will obtain a total capitulation.
Bye bye Gazprom …welcome Qatar pipeline to Europe,bye bye Assad…then they will destroy Daesh in one week or send them in Libya or somewhere else they will need them for more chaos.
Then the compradors will be back in the power alleys of the Kremlin ‘en force’…they will lift the sanctions to get the people for a while on their side. ..
» They just accepted one small defeat,letting the yuan in the IMF dts basket «
That was not a defeat for Uncle Sam, but a big defeat for Germany/France/Italy, because our share of the special drawing rights was sharply cut to welcome the yuan while Uncle Sam’s share hardly budged.
Check the numbers in the table and the text below here on German Wikipedia. Dollard down 0,2 %, Euro down 6,5 %. This crushing defeat against Uncle Sam has not been reported in German MSM, neither in French MSM, I guess? Which underlines the notion that “Europe” is a spineless colony.
If you think about it, Hungary and the Czech Republic show more leadership than Germany and France.
The maneuvering by the Hegemon in Syria is to preserver the ability to kill off Assad. That is a given. Now, there is the reality that, though Putin said Russia is in only for a short war. I never believed that.
Russia is in Syria forever. It will be the land base for Russia in the ME and NA (MENA), particularly to work with Egypt.
This also is the military emplacement in pieced steps. Russia in East Mediterranean, backed up with some China presence in Iraq, and layered with Iran behind that, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and China going into Djibouti, near Egypt and South Sudan (where China has military in UN blue helmets).
I believe there is a confluence of Russia and China and Iran and Egypt that we will see crystallize in the next year.
Russia has some distinct moral suasion with the French public, with Arab and Iranian peoples, with Christians and Kurds and many smaller religions. Standing up to ISIS and defeating AQ is what citizens of the world plea for. They are not getting that from anyone but Russia. And Putin has shown he will win this war.
France running from Russia on the Mediterranean coast, not working legally over Syria by getting Assad and Russian permission, and joining the coalition in the Persian Gulf shows the French have collapsed into vassal status again after a few days of grace.
The pathetic Germans adding their presence (but not active combat participation) merely displays the Teutonic slavish state of things, willing to supply toilet paper to the NATO butts, reaching a bizarre complicity in this dangerous maneuver to block Russian victory over ISIS and continue the attempted destruction of the Assad/Syrian state.
We will see a Russian move politically/diplomatically, a Chinese maneuver in the UN, and a massing of artillery for ground offensives never before seen in modern warfare. It will be a facts on the ground war to the finish. Whatever special operators, proxies and cannon fodder the Hegemon can muster in the short term will all melt away or bolt in panic when the artillery begins.
This is the NATO war Russia can win. Already, too many American generals have sided with Russia in the border shoot down incident. And since the Americans are adverse to massive losses (25 or more is now the limit), they understand that Russia will win in Syria. It is an inevitable result of the right military with the right weapons in the right position against a force that does not have the remotest chance of winning a siege war. Terrorists are attack dogs, not defensive fighters. Most of their numbers are foreigners. It is very difficult to fight and die for an idea that is crumbling all around, incinerated by ceaseless rockets and shells. Russian artillery is truly impossible to deal with if you are on the receiving end. See the video below.
So I guess the States – NATO – will equip drones with nuclear heads, because they certainly don’t care if others get killed…
ha ha, good one, Ann! They will also replace humans with robots. They don’t need any of us. Ever heard of the Georgia Guidestones? It’s written in stone.
Good post and I fully agree re the yanks inability to accept major losses being the yellow bellied scum they are. As for Europeans, the public is not happy about their governments decisions but people are still too stuck in their comfort zones to be prepared to do anything about it. Again it will take massive deaths and casualties to drive the point home to the European public and it is only when the war comes home to them that you will see the politicians being seriously challenged, not before.
The main reason the Vietnam war ended was because of the draft. When the moronic Americans realised they were being conscripted to go and die in the thousands was when they began seriously protesting and conversly the reason there is no anti-war movement in America today is because there is no draft. War needs to be brought physically home to the empire of chaos, their citizens need to get a taste of their own medicine and need to experience first hand the horror of war or things will never change.
In the second world war Hitler made the serious mistake of thinking Russia to be a house of cards, “kick the front door in and the whole rotten structure will collapse” he told his generals, this statement applies to NATO. NATO isa house of cards waiting to collapse.
The main reason the Vietnam war ended was because of the draft. When the moronic Americans realised they were being conscripted to go and die in the thousands was when they began seriously protesting and conversly the reason there is no anti-war movement in America today is because there is no draft. War needs to be brought physically home to the empire of chaos, their citizens need to get a taste of their own medicine and need to experience first hand the horror of war or things will never change.”
This is the truth.
Americans by and large have no problem bombing and slaughtering people in distant lands–provided that they don’t suffer too many casualties themselves.
Hence, the only way to deter American aggression is to raise the price in their blood and treasure.
It is Politically Incorrect to think, let alone say this, but to hell with appeasing Americans’ feelings: the United States of America must reap what it has sown, with extreme prejudice.
That is the only language they understand–the only one.
» The pathetic Germans adding their presence (but not active combat participation) merely displays the Teutonic slavish state of things, willing to supply toilet paper to the NATO butts, reaching a bizarre complicity in this dangerous maneuver to block Russian victory over ISIS and continue the attempted destruction of the Assad/Syrian state. «
This is what it looks like. To me, an anti-Western, patriotic German.
However, looks might be deceiving.
I once met a man in a Berlin hospital who said he was a Prussian officer. He said he could kill with his bare hands. I thought he was gay and tried to impress me. He also said the Bundeswehr was no toy army (as which it is often seen in Germany). He said “Wir waren überall dabei.” We’ve been all over the place. He said he’s been in Afghanistan in the Eighties in support of the Mujahedin against the Soviets, along with the Americans. He said no one can win in Afghanistan, because Afghans are tough fighters not afraid of dying. He said not even the Russians can win even though the Russians are extremely tough.
Another anecdote: A former colleague of mine, when drunk, said he was active as a Bundeswehr sniper in Bosnia in the mid-nineties to kill Serbs. There was no reason to doubt what he was saying.
So it seems to me our Bundeswehr was actually more active than what fits the public narrative.
The GDR complained loudly about this, but who believes the Commies, eh.
Putinś comments seem directed especially to the Russian people. The AZs won´t back down, but the war between Russia and the AZs will continue with Russia doing the assymmetric dance. This means the Russian response will not necessarily correspond to the views of, nor be readily comprehensible to those whose focus is peculiarly mil porn.
In addition, the dog that hasn´t barked in the night yet*–Russia´s genuine analysis of Israel´s ongoing fomentation of chaos in its border states–is the loudest silence in the whole Middle East
*One of the most popular Sherlock Holmes short stories, “Silver Blaze” focuses on the disappearance of the eponymous race horse (a famous winner) on the eve of an important race and on the apparent murder of its trainer. The tale is distinguished by its atmospheric Dartmoor setting and late-Victorian sporting milieu. It also features some of Conan Doyle’s most effective plotting, hinging on the “curious incident of the dog in the night-time:”
Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”
Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.”
Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.”
Holmes: “That was the curious incident.”
— this was not a threat to Russia’s enemies, but a promise to the Russian people.
It was both, Saker.
And the seriousness of the promise to the Russian people was purposefully emphasized by Putin by having been made in presence of the widows of the two Russian warriors. Russians have not missed the significance of this aspect.
What’s more, I agree with one of the commenters here: the Western side is not as unified as it has been even quite recently. Many of the NATO members “elite” have started to see the rapid weakening of the USA more clearly.
So, we have one side quitely determined to stand its ground (understanding that it faces the issue of life and death) and realizing that it could have to revert to sheer force to stop the “partners” and defend its people.
While many members of the other side are trying to sit on two chairs: kowtowing to the overseas Master, and beeing too afraid (despite all the barking) of the powerful Neighbor.
As for Poles or Balts daring to repeat the “feat” of the Turk… Barking only is their craft.
All of the above, IMHO, of course. Since the times ahead will be very difficult not only for Russia, but for the world in general.
Does this mean Putin is going to pull the trigger in regards to Ukraine and finally end the Kiev regime in a quick strike, similar to the Russo-Georgian War? In the same sense that Russia won’t go to full-scale war for Syria, the US won’t go to full scale war for Ukraine. And all of the horror stories and the nasty things the Ukie regime was doing while in power would shame the US permanently in the eyes of the world. So far, the US has been able to keep a lid on what’s been going on there but a quick and decisive war would put the world focus back on Ukraine. The media wouldn’t have time to form a narrative, especially if the war was as quick as it was with Georgia. Also, Ukraine’s military is pretty much crippled and demoralized, so it would be a VERY quick war if Russia went in full force. It would be an illustration of what would happen to a country, should they get any ideas about acting with impunity.
Also, would be an Iraq-Iran alliance be out of the question in this equation? They now have a mutual interest: Turkey thinking it can waltz into any country it likes, backed by NATO. I’m pretty sure the US absolutely doesn’t want Iran and Iraq to form any kind of strong cooperation…Israel doubly so. They wouldn’t take it lying down and would probably do something stupid in response, at least if my understanding of things is somewhat correct.
Saker, do you think these are viable options for the Federation?
It would be an absolute disaster. Assise from the economic and social contingencies the occupation would be expensive and impractical.
I disagree with that. There wouldn’t be a long occupation. Ukrainian patriots (the anti-fascist ones) would handle most of the work. And would form with Russian aid their own unity government without the traitors included. The media and education system would be reformed. And the economy quickly reintegrated with Russia. With China probably investing heavily in the restructuring of it. China already before maidan planned to do that under Yanukovich. In a liberated Ukraine they would be able to continue those plans.Ukraine is not always doomed to be a basket-case. It is today because the EU doesn’t care for it,except to loot it. There are many resources in Ukraine. And an educated population. With the EEU it could regain the luster it had as part of the USSR. When it was a highly industrialized part of that nation.While with the EU it would be a backwater cheap labor and raw materials colony.Only really useful as a reserve of manpower,and a staging ground for a NATO war against Russia.
Ukraine as a country has enormous potential. It has had strong traditions in Science, Manufacturing, Agriculture and the Arts. There are still vestiges of the former Soviet Education System it inherited from independence and it could be with investment turned around quickly. Only though, if freed from the parasitical poisoned politics that has shackled it and its people since independence.
I would, if given the same quality of leadership as Russia has had in the past 15 years, expect to see similar results as Russia although they have more ground to cover due to the economic rape they have been subjected to under their 25 or so years of Political Oligarchism. With China to help though, and freed populas, the Ukrainians would be up to the task.
As for liberating the Russian speaking areas only, well that would cover probably 80% of the country. Even the crooks in the Rada speak Russian which makes their pathetic schemings even more so. Not sure what they would do with that area to the West though. Maybe cut it off like one would a patient with a limb suffering from rotted flesh???
I really see no way Glacia can be part of a functioning state. Can they be reformed??? Not in my eyes and their fascist spawn who have migrated to terrorise other parts of South and East Ukraine would need to be dealt with.
Oh, no, a very large proportion of the Ukrainian population would never forgive or forget a Russian military occupation, no matter how brief. They are fiercely independent (minded) while obviously, they are very economically dependent, but that’s how they roll. Don’t even try to nanny these obstinate people. They have to choose their own path. The best Russia can do is act as the spiritual guide and example, as Saker has mentioned. The road to hell is paved with good intentions, don’t forget that.
The shooting down of the Russian bomber actually reveals Russia’s strength. Firstly, consider the amount of nefarious planning the AZE had to make to shoot down one plane: co-ordination in advance between NATO powers; layers of deniability built-in just to cover up their cowardly action; the cowardly action itself of shooting a non-threatening target; and using the powerful Western MSM to add further layers of cover with bewildering and contradictory narratives. All that amounts to a paranoid and brittle Empire.
Secondly, even after all that conniving and game-theory nonsense (goodness knows what outcome the AZE planners expected) Russia didn’t take the bait. Russia and her allies executed a brilliant rescue and increased the offensive against the AZE mercenaries and covert operatives.
The AZE is tangling itself up in its own lies and machinations. There is no isolated and weakened Russia to lure into a bear trap; there is the leader of an allied coalition whose members have repeatedly stated that Syria will not fall. The AZE cannot say it wasn’t warned.
Thanks for the realistic analysis. Since it seems the thing to do here, let me play analyst too although I have absolutely no credibility or competence in that area.
Putin spoke of hitting first when war is inevitable. He already has hit first in the war against terrorism itself. This is his strong suit. He needs to keep the high ground which can only be done by not taking the low ground.
Saker mentioned that Russia has the truth which is her ace in the hole. As the poet put it: “If the arrow is straight and the point is slick it can pierce through the dust no matter how thick.”
Russia needs to keep hitting harder and harder on the universally acknowledged terrorists with their motley assortment of names, especially cutting off their financial supply lines like oil.
Terrorism is the US’s Achilles Heel. It is terrorism central and that’s the truth that cannot forever be hidden. 9/11 is the smoking gun and ISIS et alii are directly linked to that shot heard around the world.
When the big investors see their money going up in smoke they will get angry and seek revenge. When chess players get angry they make mistakes. The become sitting turkeys. By hitting investors where it hurts Putin will provoke mistakes like Crimea and Turkey. Then is the time to strike first and first and first.
It was said of John Wesley Harding that “he was never known to make a foolish move.” And he had a Robin Hood truth on his side by siding with the poor. Russia must never lose that cutting edge.
The terrorist trail of tears will lead right to its head-waters at the headquarters of evil. This vineyard does not venture that far but I do. Military analysis is a sine qua non but it is not the source of power. On its level intelligence is, including the intelligence to make weapons.
The Empire has plenty of intelligence but no truth; it thrives on lies. Russia is in the process of escaping from the bed of deceit but has bankers mesmerized by western whores. But she can’t risk exposing her queen yet.
With truth on her side, time is too. It’s not just chess but multi-polar chess on several levels. I’m no analyst but I do have an analogue playlist. I’ll play my part and fly under the radar of Count Khazar until I’m strong enough to face him. In the meantime, for whatever it’s worth I’ll have Putin’s back on some background level.
“The midnight rain follows the train
We all wear the same thorny crown
Soul to soul, our shadows roll
And I’ll be with you when the deal goes down”
“Justice is the expression of the Truth of Love. She is tough Love. When the law of Love is abused, Justice is cruel to be kind. She gives me what I have coming.”
During the cold war, NATO-CIA and the secret services of the european vassal states staged numerous terrorist attacks in order to discredit communists and to increase tensions and fear in society. This is known as operation Gladio. “Communist terrorism” was the norm back then with hundreds of victims in Italy and elsewhere.
After the fall of USSR, the so called communist terrorism miraculously “disappeared” and there was a new “threat”, the islamic terrorism. But if someone analyses all these terrorist attacks ( from 9/11 to the Paris attacks ) there are too many inconsistencies, lack of evidence, planted evidence by police, media manipulation etc.
Only western elites benefit from the emergence of “islamic terrorism”. This has given them the pretext to invade numerous middle eastern countries. They have toppled all the secular/nationalist/anti-colonial regimes such as the Baathist Iraq, Libya etc.
The attack in Paris happen in a very convenient time for western elites. It has given them a pretext to start bombing Syria at a time when the Russian/Iranian/Syrian coalition gains momentum. Not only there is lack of evidence, but French authorities blamed IS which is the new “bogeyman” similar to Al Qaeda in early 2000s (nowadays Al Qaeda is part of western backed “moderate” opposition in Syria !). Their pretext to invade is to combat the so called islamic terrorism, but their only aim is to topple the secular Baathist regime.
Another staged crisis is the so called “refugee” crisis. Turkey – US – Germany – EU opened the borders on purpose and allowed hundreds of thousands of people to enter, with many of them
non-Syrians . We had sensational stories in the media about the poor Syrian refugees such as the pics of a drowned child that the turkish police changed the position of the corpse so as to appear more photogenic. Images of families with children. In reality only a small part were children and mothers and most of the so called refugees looked like the muslim mercenaries that Turks and USA use. Maybe their plan was to invade Syria with the pretext to stop the refugee crisis. It failed as Russia send its air force.
Then we had the downing of the russian passenger plane, the paris attacks, and the attack on the russian su-24.
Everything seems staged and planned from the Western elites. It remains to be seen what else they plan to do….
» Another staged crisis is the so called “refugee” crisis. … In reality … most of the so called refugees looked like the muslim mercenaries that Turks and USA use. «
Exactly. Now guess why this is so! The following idea is being floated in Germany:
Deutschland sollte Flüchtlinge militärisch ausbilden – Tagesspiegel 30.11.15
Germany should provide military training to refugees
Nifty, isn’t it?
You underestimate the political dynamics. As usual. The drift of the boys and toys is nice but Russia rattles the west and that weighs on the scale. Putin spooks the Americans. His example fuels the forces of division within the U.S. and European population. The Russian (and Chinese) people are fairly solid behind their respective regimes. Across the U.S. and Europe bitter internal division presages civil war.
The Russian interventions in Syria need to be viewed against this larger contest. Debt, class division, poverty, unemployment, the oppressive security state. Welcome to the ‘free world’. If there was no Russian example then then we should really despair. Putin and Russia are demonstrating in real world time a smarter quality of state leadership. People need to see such a thing is possible. You underestimate the force of this image, these optics, their percolating effects on the thinking and moods of larger populations. And this in turn, may be expressed concretely as “We’re mad as hell and we won’t take it any more”.
You underestimate the political dynamics. As usual. The drift of the boys and toys is nice but Russia rattles the west and that weighs on the scale. Putin spooks the Americans. His example fuels the forces of division within the U.S. and European population. The Russian (and Chinese) people are fairly solid behind their respective regimes. Across the U.S. and Europe bitter internal division presages civil war.
The Russian interventions in Syria need to be viewed against this larger contest. Debt, class division, poverty, unemployment, the oppressive security state. Welcome to the ‘free world’. If there was no Russian example then then we should really despair. Putin and Russia are demonstrating in real world time a smarter quality of state leadership. People need to see such a thing is possible. You underestimate the force of this image, these optics, their percolating effects on the thinking and moods of larger populations. And this in turn, may be expressed concretely as “We’re mad as hell and we won’t take it any more”.
I agree that the downing of the Su-24 was a serious escalation and that in many ways Russia now finds itself between a rock and a hard place. While I don’t expect a tit-for-tat response, Putin made very clear the intention to put the screws on economically and behind-the-scenes in relation to Turkey. As Putin explicitly stated, the goal was to goad them into a violent response; they will be careful not to give them one.
However, I would agree with cirdan’s comments that NATO is not the alliance it once was. Even with more Turkish provocations, R2P of Turkmans, etc, it would be a very tough sell in Germany, France, Spain, Italy to go to war for Turkey against Russia. For that, there would need to be a serious Russian attack on Turkey proper.
One shouldn’t overlook the PR damage done to the ‘West’ by the Turkish attack and the subsequent spilling of the ISIS-funding beans by Russia on the activities of Ankara. Even in the MSM in the West there are rumblings of discontent. Leaks from NATO members over their disbelief in Turkey’s explanations, ex-military in the US saying Russia’s version is right, Greece practically screaming about the double standards. This didn’t happen with Iraq or Libya or Ukraine, but it’s happening now. The double think is becoming harder and harder to bear when the US says “Turkey isn’t funding ISIS” at the same time as “Turkey needs to seal the border”.
Then there are the BRICS. Will they stay silent in the face on increasing NATO bellicosity? China undoubtedly knows the cross-hairs of the empire are on them next. What line would have to be crossed for them to unceremoniously dump their holdings of US Treasury Bonds? If not over NATO vs. Russia, then when?
Sadly, i think the saker is right in his assessment that there is not much Russia can do, and it is all but certain that Syria will be broken. The west is rushing there from all direction, it is really obvious they are preparing.
However I don’t think WW3 would be so easy to set off. I think Russia can shoot down turkish planes in Syria, or turkish tanks in syria, and NATO won’t do sh1t about it.
By the way, according to South Front, Turkey today entered Syria today with tanks and buldozers.
Syria is not breaking up — Kurdistan is emerging. Assad signaled that with the ‘autonomous’ region theme.
Little doubt the Kurds will be aligned with Israel. On the surface this harms Syrian, Turk and Iraqi sovereignty etc and suits the US/Israel. Deeper, down Syria and Iraq are already harmed and so the most to lose is Turkey (some its current state).
Various criminal oil/drugs ‘rat runs’ aside, another US Base (with airport) in some ME strategic backwater (Hasakah region, Northeastern Syria — see http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-building-military-airbase-in-northeastern-syria/5493746 ) does seem inevitable.
A US base here also provides some possible early tracking/interception of Caspian Sea based missile launches and potentially places Israeli jets on Iran’s doorstep.
Turkey is the main loser here as they’ll be sold out when it suits. With all the usual suspects chipping in this is looking more like a Libya 2.0 script (“Assad must go” etc) .
This latest move for US ‘boots on the ground’ is strategic even if Assad’s Syria stays in place.
What can Russia do?
The ISIS goons will fade away in due course (and return the costumes to the Hollywood set) and the US will be claiming victory and ‘policing’ (a la Afghanistan) for decades to come.
Unless Putin is prepared to strike all-and-any invaders in Syria then he can do little more than keep as much of Syria intact to the coast; block potential oil/gas transit routes to Europe; and wait out the long game of ‘peace is war’ against the crumbling Western economies as they head into a Great Depression 2.0.
For the time being…
Iran does not favor creation of Kurdistan
If The “crazy” NATO make atack than a Lituânia or Polônia for exemple.. In my opinion… Rússia in my opinion if a “woman” attacking the Russian through a ballistic woman, for example Polish or lituania, so Russian should strike with a atômica bomb, because it will demonstrate that definitely, that it was definitely exceeded a red line and that there will be consequences for all players…because otherwise, the next step will be a massive attack “preventive” against Moscow … there is no other alternative.
This article is very much on the same theme.
Whom Russia Will Fight and Whom it Won’t
“I have no idea as to what he [Putin] might be referring to, but I am confident that this is not some empty bluster” it means Saker killing Turks, one Kornet ATGM fired by Iraqi Shi’a militiamen and PKK fighters at a time.
Putin does not bluff, and he never takes the bait and responds with a tit for tat attack on a Turkish jet or gives NATO the excuse for full on mobilization they crave. The Turks like the Saudis thought they could send jihadists and TOW missiles into Syria to kill Syrians with impunity. They will find out, just like the Saudis have with Houthis burning their tankers and American-supplied Humvees, that proxy war can be a two way street and certain elements of the American Deep State see fighting Russian/Iranian allies to the last Saudi or Turk as a feature, not a bug. The preparations for the territorial breakup of Turkey and perhaps the fall of the House of Saud when their money runs out in a few years (unless higher oil prices can be miraculously arranged) are already underway in both Washington and Moscow.
This article reminds of a chess game. I think one possible potential ‘move’ that has to be considered in the Nato vs Russia game is Iran. What if Russia moved a significant force into Iran. That would make “Syria [not] beyond the Russian power projection capability” (i.e. across the Caspian Sea) and it would flank Nato. Combined with a serious commitment by Iran to engage in a NATO war and the Shia of Iraq, I don’t think Russia’s position is so hopeless a you make it out. But again this is Chess talk.
A possible supply option for such a force would be to road freight it though the Transcaucasia states – either direct through Azerbaijan to Iran, or through both Georgia and Armenia into Iran. From there to be transported either by air over Iraq or road through Iraq. But this is predicated on the road system being up to it, for Georgia and Azerbaijan to agree and be reliable (doubtful), and for Iraq to be a safe place to transport through (at the moment not the best). Or as you suggest, sea freighted direct to Iran. Unless Russia invades Turkey and directly links Armenia with Syria, which of course is out of the question.
There is one low-cost way to bring this entire charade of the American/Western-led War of Terrorism to an end in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and elswhere without firing a shot or dropping a bomb: Russia should provide all its intelligence on the Inside Job known as the Sept. 11th attacks.
Given its intel capabilities, Russia must have significant evidence including satellite images that can severely undermine and even demolish the nonsenscial fairy tale that is America’s version of 9-11.
Expose 9-11, and you expose the fake War on Terrorism, and you expose those nations who are the real state sponsors of terror.
You really have to question why Russia hasn’t exposed 9-11 yet if it is sincere in its opposition to the Anglo-Zionist Empire, or even if Russia can be trusted.
All the evidence any seeker of truth needs is already available on internet.
But why stop your enemy when he’s making a mistake? The Big Lie of 9/11 is making the West to rot from within. Ever since 9/11 the NWO is going down hill faster and faster and their real face is being revealed to more and more.
Are you a troll?
9/11 ‘truth’ won’t do anything at all. And the truth is that 9/11 is the result of airliners being used as flying bombs,which caused the towers to topple.
How can it be so difficult to accept???
Furthermore, even if Russia could point out who had foreknowledge, who in the ‘west’ planned t, etc.. what good would it do when American press would deny/ignore/stall the reporting? The public would shrug it off and nothing would happen
Yes the two airliners used as flying bombs caused the two buildings to fall. Building 7 was not hit by any flying bombs and free-fell. Who is the troll?
I actually agree that 9/11 was the start of this period of insanity…it was ‘a’ start to it…not the very first but a good one to start with…
If we could really get the criminals on the dock for 9/11 the world would be turned into a slightly different direction…
Now it appears that Israel pulled off 9/11….Rebekah Roth – check her out….
Good luck with that. By now, it’s like trying to push a religious doctrine. Truthers vs. Liars.
And you are in the minority of about 15% or less. At least here in the USA. Some other parts of the world may have a different slant.
But when it comes to religion, those conversions can be hard to win.
Could somebody help me understand when and why the relationship between the U.S. and Syria soured. I recall that in mid-2000s, Syria was one of a number of countries that participated in the CIA’s “extraordinary renditions” program. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_rendition
Why did the US suddenly decide they did not like the government in Damascus?
Yes, until recently, and who knows, maybe even now, Syria was hired by the US and Canada to torture and interrogate their muslim suspects in their War on Terror.
The Hegemon was busy in Iraq during those years. Syria as ally to Iran was next on the list to weaken and overthrow but Iraq and Afghanistan had to be destroyed first. The PNAC and the Grand Chessboard map it out. Wolfowitz doctrine spells out Russia.
US has been meddling in Syria since 1948 that I recall.. But after Israel got trashed in 2006, it became a priority to remove that threat and for that you had to break up Syria. Then after findng gas and oil in Syrian territory it became imperative.. Also the planning took some time.. They needed weapons and got that from looting Libya.. Then after Libya was done air America moved the terrorist to turkey to infiltrate into Syria.. Erdo the ottoman back stabber got Syria to demilitarize their border to start a trading block and once it was all setup, he turned into the godfather.. Once demonstrations started in Syria about lack of food and price increases they started shooting soldiers and police and it was all setup even before the protests started.. Hence the in 6 months assad will be gone.. These infiltrators and terrorists used some FSA heavily paid informants to get secrets of the SAA. And they took over a lot of defensive positions built in case of an Israeli invasion.. The SAA had nothing at the time to evict these terrorists from fortified bunkers.. It was all well setup, cost a lot of money and global resources to move tens of thousands of terrorists and thousands of tons of weapons (over 20,000 tons) and 20 billion us$.
Ukraine was cheap at $5 billion.. But the US did not pay the money, their vassals did like gulf war 1 which cost like 200 billion. The US was able to upgrade their entire military by getting others to pay for it, including japan and Germany. What a racket.. That’s why the US leap frogged everyone else.. They loot and plunder the world and then come out the most advanced.. You can look at almost anything they have. They made others pay for it.
They need to have their deep state noses covertly bloodied to stop them from getting stupider.
NATO is not capable of ejecting Russia and stopping it from supporting Syria, and whoever else may be fighting on the ground (Hezbollah, Iran, etc.). Russia doesn’t have to ‘win’ against NATO but just not be dislodged and thus keep a huge thorn into NATO’s paw.
As for the encounter with shooting down the SU-24, Turkey and NATO lost that one — Russia is in a stronger position and NATO in a weaker on than before, and Russia is not half finished responding to it. This was a strategic loss for the empire. At the same time Russia did devastating damage to the Turkmen oil terrorists and finance, and now has more anti-aircraft weaponry in place.
Compare with Ukraine — tactical win for US but strategic loss, which will become a tactical loss too. It’s like the difference in playing chess between playing tactical combinations VS positional strategy. Russia is in a much stronger relative position than it was before Maidan. NATO’s operational space and tactical options are reduced, and it’s in time trouble: the empire continues to lose in terms of propaganda, politics, and economics.
If some little nation or group shoots down a Russian plane expecting to get away with it they can hardly complain if it gets badly smacked down because the precedence of the invalidity of such an attack is now established: who would blame Russia for reacting except the imperialist trolls who support such attacks aginst the country which is really fighting terrorism? Russia would have a much freer hand than before to counter-attack such terrorist forces. It has more tactical and operational space then before. Many more people now see what is happening, including those in governments.
Consider the trend over the last few years and extrapolate: Russia continues to gain ground and the empire loses it. ‘Keep the faith’ and don’t lose heart. The good guys are still winning.
“Russia is not prepared to wage a war against the entire Empire over Syria”
True, but it is far more than just Syria, is it not? Plus China carries a lot of clout economically.
Divide and conquer the Empire.
Two can play at that brinkmanship game. Russia can call the Hegemon’s bluff and Russia can break NATO. Cracks are showing as we speak. It would be a dangerous calculation, for sure, but are Europe countries ready to sacrifice themselves for the USA?
I suspect not and I also think Russia could pound Turkey’s military and aside from a lot of posturing, little would happen. The West has villified and accused Russia for years with nonsense about invasions and resurrecting the Soviet Union. So what difference would it make if Russia actually did some aggression?
Also since the Turkish military detest Erdogan they might well refuse to fight and then stage a coup to oust Erdogan. That might please Putin.
I doubt the zionazis think Russia is weak in Syria, otherwise they would be doing more than cowardly provocations and trying to fix a snowballing failure with special ops forces/covert operatives. The Russians operate out in the open, zionazi, inc. has to operate in the shadows and behind proxies.
What does that say about who is weak and insecure, and who is confidant and working from strength?
Also, the sort of quislings the ZPC/NWO controls in their colonies take and carry out orders, they do not have the ability to force massa to back them. That some Turkish or Latvian or Ukrainian quislings have the sort of power to be able to force the ZPC/NWO to do anything is backwards. The quislings are tools, which get quickly discarded when their actions are not in massa’s interests.
The only tail with enough clout to wag the dog is Israel/zionazis. The rest are worker bees.
Interesting reading of the Montreux Convention:
First, forget about what the conventions say — laws are not followed nay more and it’s all down power in the endgame.
Second, if Turkey tries to close the straits there is nothing that can stop Russia from closing them for everyone, even if just by blocking the navigation channels. Not even talking about forcing it’s way though or engaging with munitions.
If Russia wants to be lawful, then where there is will there is a law… but it’s always important to ask :who is going to enforce that law, and how?’, and that goes for all sides. If Russia closed the straits and the empire says ‘hey, you can’t do that’, then the return question is ‘what are you going to do about?. Indeed, what *could* NATO do about it?
What could it do about anything to hurt Russia that it is not already doing, which won’t hurt NATO/empire even more? If there was something they could get away with, they would already be doing it, for no rational reason at all. It’s at the current limits of its power.
Hi Saker, thanks for being back and being so clear and strong and knowledgeable.
I love Putin.
A few years back … in 2007, 2008 … Holly Internet was abuzz with learned diagnoses & profound predictions: the U.S. empire was falling apart, finally it was on its last leg and within a couple of years – oh, no, months! – it would join the Choir Invisible and would be no more…
And now, in 2015 A.D. … ecce resurrectionem! Suddenly, miraculously, the U.S. is again the big boss, bigger than ever – and all of Europe is its voiceless colony!…
C’mon, local Gurus, kindly pray-tell: how do you square this?… How do you square the circle?……
Pox Americana explains it all -I’ll defer to others to fill in the details. The EU is an American vassal and will do as it is told.
As far as the fiscal side and the 2007/8 collapse and global toxic instruments, casino capitalism and the gutting of the middle class is explained in Paul Craig Roberts (Reagan’s Under Secretary of the Treasury) book “Laissez-Faire Capitalism”.
I am about to read Michael Hudson’s books e.g. “Killing the Host”:
I am still trying to get my head around how you can have endlessly increasing unserviceable debt. You just print money to finance wars and have others pay for it. The whole thing, including ‘fractional reserve banking’ and reserve currency seems like a giant Ponzi scheme, the ony difference being that both predators and victims -everyone- are all in on the scheme to keep it afloat. A runaway train.
The Lac-Mégantic runaway oil train is a perfect metaphor.
The Saker yet again feel the urge to start his piece by striking out at his illusory “flag-wavers and “hurrah patriots”.
Who are these people or fantasies he is referring to? In short probably anyone that does not share and parrot Saker´s doomsday-pessimistic approach to these developments.
One thing is clear: If i was a general about to lead my troops into battle i would certainly not hire “The Saker” to rally and inspire them with courage and motivation. What Saker essentially is saying is: Move on folks. Let´s hope and pray for the best but in reality, the battle is over. The Empire is all over us and there is nothing we can do, run for the shelters.
What saker is doing, perhaps not intentional, is what the people he probably despises more than anything, the “fifth columns” in the Russian society, does. To instil a sense of hopelessness and apathy even before the battle has even started.
Not much data to go on, but I suspect Saker may be vulnerable to depression and pessimism at times, and he’s had a pretty rough month. But he also tends to do military analysis, which can lose some focus on the strategic geopolitical level. It’s these sorts of weaknesses we all encounter in ourselves that makes it important to work in teams with people (avoiding group think) of different ideas, skills, attitudes, backgrounds, and personality traits. We can compensate for each other to a degree.
I like the Saker for the ‘reality’ checks and for his reminding his readers that beating the Empire is a grueling Marathon, not a sprint. However I think the Saker is underestimating the Iranian card yet to be fully played on Putin’s side. The Kremlin has clearly held the Iranians back or at least kept their role in the background compared to Russia’s in order to soothe Israel’s butthurt feelings, and indeed the Israelis carried out a minor drone strike on a nothing target inside Syria last week to show they’re still in the game S-400s or not, but Putin sees that for what it is: the Israelis blowing smoke up the butts of their pals in D.C.
Marine Le Pen’s FN just won big in French regional elections. Not yet a majority in the parliament but enough to force Hollande’s hand in becoming more ‘Le Pen like’ in terms of respect for Russia. Hollande will still be threatened or reminded via more terror attacks who is France’s boss but the Empire has plenty of cracks to exploit yet. I’m not sure if the Saker even watched all those retired U.S. generals throwing the Turks ‘under the bus’ for the provocative shoot down of a Russian jet even if it momentarily transited their air space nor for their support of ISIS. Not everyone in D.C. wants WW3 for the neo-Ottoman Sultan or to use him to push Russia to the brink.
If Russia loses in Syria, it will mean the end of independent Russia. They will eventually become a vassal to the US empire. Death from a thousand cuts.
If the US loses, it will lose control of a large section of commodities that will not be traded in the US dollar, and its empire will start to die. Syria, Iraq, Iran oil? Traded in currency other than the dollar?
If the US loses control of global commodities, it will most likely go through what Russia did in the nineties and come back as a regional power rather than the hegemon.
President al-Assad: Britain and France have neither the will nor the vision on how to defeat terrorism
6 December، 2015
Putin: Syria is a sovereign country, President al-Assad is elected by its people
Damascus, SANA – President Bashar al-Assad gave an interview to The Sunday Times in which he said Britain and France have neither the will nor the vision on how to defeat terrorism and their airstrikes against ISIS will yield no results, but will rather be illegal and harmful in that they will help in spreading terrorism.
Question 2: Are you saying, just to clarify two things, are you saying that the British, if the British join the intervention, that includes also the other coalition, with that intervention you see that is illegitimate from an international-law perspective?
President Assad: Definitely, definitely, we are a sovereign country. Look at the Russians, when they wanted to make this alliance against terrorism, the first thing they did was they started discussions with the Syrian government before anyone else. Then they started discussing the same issue with other governments. Then they came. So, this is the legal way to combat any terrorist around the world.
Question 5: Last week, a key part of Cameron’s argument for extending UK airstrikes to Syria was a number that he used – 70 thousand moderate rebels – that he mentioned “don’t belong to extremist groups”, but are already on the ground, who the west can use to help them in the fight of ISIS. As far as you know, which groups are included in the 70 thousand? Are you aware of 70 thousand moderate rebels in Syria?
President Assad: Let me be frank and blunt about this. This is a new episode in a long series of David Cameron’s classical farce, to be very frank. This is not acceptable. Where are they? Where are the 70 thousand moderates that he is talking about? That is what they always talk about: moderate groups in Syria. This is a farce based on offering the public factoids instead of facts.
The Russians have been asking, since the beginning of their participation two months ago. They have said: where are those moderates? No one gave them an answer. Actually, since the beginning of the conflict in Syria, there were no moderate militants in Syria. All of them were extremists.
Question 6: Not even the Kurds and the FSA for example, the free Syrian army?
President Assad: The Kurds are fighting the terrorists with the Syrian army, in the same areas.
Question 7: But they are also being supported and armed and trained and backed by the Americans to also launch, to fight …
President Assad: Mainly by the Syrian army, and we have the documents. We sent them armaments, because they are Syrian citizens, and they want to fight terrorism. We do the same with many other groups in Syria, because you cannot send the army to every part of Syria. So, it is not only the Kurds. Many other Syrians are doing the same.
The following is the full text of the interview:
Russians have taken over tactics and planning from the Iranians, They are even equipping the SAA and NDF now. The Iranian tactics take a huge toll on the advancing soldiers. So the Russian tactic seem to be artillery strikes first and then advance and capture the area. Iran and Hezbolla lacking artillery and tanks use infantry tactics.. Russians just blow everything up so IS bobby traps and mines don’t make any difference.
A unit of 60+ Russian Marines arrived to the Homs Governorate’s eastern countryside on Friday morning in order to advise and overlook the Syrian Arab Army’s counter-offensive against the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) in western Palmyra (Tadmur).
Prior to the arrival of the Russian Marines in eastern Homs, ISIS was on the offensive at the strategic villages of Al-Bayarat and Al-Dawa; however, this situation changed after the terrorist group failed to bypass the Syrian Arab Army’s frontline defenses on Thursday evening.
The following day, the Syrian Arab Army’s 67th Brigade of the 18th Tank Division and the National Defense Forces (NDF) of Homs City – under the command of the Russian Marine advisors – launched a counter-offensive at Al-Bayarat, seizing the lost territory from the ISIS terrorists in the village’s eastern countryside.
On Saturday morning in the Al-Bayarat countryside, the Syrian Arab Army’s 67th Brigade and their allies advanced to Marhatten, where they were confronted by a large contingent of ISIS terrorists that were poised to obstruct the pro-government forces from seizing this village near the ancient city of Palmyra.
re: but the fact is that Russia cannot ‘protect’ Syria from the US, NATO or even CENTCOM
Then it would seem that those who supported a Syrian intervention in the Kremlin are foolish and the West is receiving a great gift that may even finish off an independent Russia.
What would not make sense is why NATO didn’t intervene earlier. If NATO is so much more powerful than Russia, Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah, why hesitate? Shouldn’t they have just gone in two years ago? Does this mean that the West set a trap for Russia, and Russia fell into it?
Al-Masdar News has been informed by a military source from the Syrian Air Defense that the Israeli Air Force did indeed violate Syrian airspace on Thursday to strike the 155th Brigade’s Headquarters (also known as the “Missile Base”) for the second time this year and the third time in two years.
The theater of the absurd..
ETF.. Speaks Russian if a red-flag? Its now a crime in the free USA?
Well lets look at that Israeli propaganda outlet..
Heavy Losses Drive Iranian Guards to Revamp Syrian Command”
Russia brings T-90 tanks for 3 Syrian fronts
The newly-arrived heavy Russian T-90 tanks, if wielded by trained Iranian and Hizballah crews from S. Syria and Syrian Golan, would ramp up the hazard to northern Israel.
On Wednesday, Dec. 2, Russia started transferring dozens of advanced T-90 tanks to Syria, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report. They were moved immediately to two Syrian army fronts fighting rebel forces at the two most important cities, Aleppo and Damascus, and are expected to be sent to beef up the combined Syria, Iranian, Hizballah army poised to recover Palmyra from the Islamic State.
The shipment to the capital was delivered into the hands of the 4th armored division, Syria’s republican guard commanded by Gen. Ali Maher Assad, the younger brother of President Bashar Assad.
The attack on Palmyra in country infested by ISIS forces was scheduled to have begun two weeks ago but was delayed for the arrival of the heavy Russian tanks, among other reasons.
The T-90 weighs 46.5 tons and has a range of 375 kilometers, with an average speed of 45 km per hour under battle conditions or 65 km per hour on roads. It has three layers of defensive systems: composite armor plates on the turret; Kontact-5 third-generation explosive reactive armor on its front, sides, and turret that reduces penetration by kinetic energy bombs; and the “Shtora,” or curtain, an electro-optical active protection system that enables the tank to jam the systems of antitank missiles.
The T-90 also has 12 smoke mortars, a 125 mm cannon and AT-11 Sniper guided antitank missiles. The tank has proven itself in battle in recent years in Russia’s wars in Georgia and Chechnya against forces not unlike the Syrian rebels.
Until last week, Russia kept only a few T-90 tanks in Syria, mainly to protect its military bases around Latakia.
The new shipment, say Western military sources which are monitoring Russian movements, will eventually replace a large part of the Syrian army’s fleet of around 500 operational tanks, mostly T-72s – at least half of which are positioned to defend the capital.
But the pace of delivery will be dictated above all by the time needed for Russian instructors to retrain Syrian tank crews from scratch in the use of T-90s in battle conditions.
It should be noted meanwhile that, while the Syrian rebels have antitank missiles able to take out the T-72, they do not have advanced missiles capable of stopping the much heavier, reactively armed T-90. But the Islamic State does, having captured US-made antitank missiles from the Iraqi armored divisions put to flight in June 2014. Some of those advanced missiles may be presumed to have been passed to ISIS forces in Syria.
For now, the Russian general staff shows no sign of preparing for a wide-scale operation against ISIS in Syria, so the newly-delivered T-90s are not immediately threatened from that quarter.
As far as Israel is concerned, the main worry is that Russian instructors will also be assigned to train Iranian and Hizballah tank crews in the use of the advanced T-90. Once they get hold of these tanks, they will be able to attain their objective of beefing up the Iranian-Hizballah front against Israeli defenses from southern Syria and the Syrian Golan.
Israeli finds cause for concern in the constant expansion of the Russian military presence and involvement in Syria. Preparations for a very long stay are signified by new developments every few days. A permanent Russian military presence in Syria would give Iran and Hizballah cover for a standing military buildup in Syria. This would confront Israel’s vital strategic interests with a major challenge.
Russia speeds tons of heavy artillery and MRLs to Syria for expanded ground combat
After several incidents, in which 130mm shells fired by Syrian rebel groups, particularly the Al-Nusra Front, reached the center of the Russian Khmeimin military enclave outside Latakia, the general staff in Moscow decided to rush heavy artillery reinforcements to Syria. debkafile’s military sources report that Russia has transferred two types of heavy weapons systems by sea and by air to the front near Latakia during the past few days.
First, a body of three battalions of 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers was deployed at Khmeimin and has already started pounding rebel lines and command centers in the area. This heavy artillery system, capable of firing 152mm bombs at a rapid pace, is a veteran of Russia’s former campaigns against Islamic terrorist groups, especially in the Russian war against Islamic rebels in Chechnya in the 1990s.
The 2S19 Msta-S has a modified chassis of a T-80 tank and a diesel motor of a T-72. It is effective against fortifications as well as military and terrorist targets in wooded mountain areas, exactly the kind of geographical environment in which the rebels around Latakia area are operating.
This self-propelled howitzer is also expected to be effective in battles being fought in the Qalamoun mountains, in order to break the stalemate in which the combined Iranian, Syrian, Iraqi and Hizballah forces have been bogged down for months in their efforts to knock over rebel strongholds.
Another heavy weapons system that Russia brought to Syria in recent days is the TOS-1 220mm multiple rocket launcher. This system, which is mounted on the chassis of a T-72 tank, has been deployed near the embattled Syrian cities of Hama and Homs.
Israel extremely nervous over Russian operations on its Golan border
On the outside, Israel is all smiles and full of praise for way the coordination with Moscow is working for averting clashes between its air force and Russian warplanes over Syria. This goodwill was conspicuous in the compliments Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and President Vladimir Putin traded when they met on the sidelines of the Paris climate summit Monday, Nov. 30.
But the first disquieting sign appeared Tuesday, Dec. 1. Senior Russian and Israeli officers were due to meet in Tel Aviv to discuss strengthening the cooperation between the two army commands. But no word from Moscow or Jerusalem indicated whether the meeting had taken place.
debkafile’s military sources report that this week, the show of optimism is giving way to an uneasy sensation in the offices of the prime minister, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and the IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gady Eisenkott. They suspect an ulterior motive behind Russia’s military movements in southern Syria, especially its air strikes against Syrian rebels, just across from Israel’s Golan border.
In particular, Moscow may be giving Hizballah and Iran an umbrella for achieving their longstanding design to displace the Syrian rebels with Revolutionary Guards and Hizballah forces and deploy them along Israel’s Golan border.
This suspicion gained ground when Tuesday, Dec. 1, the day after the Putin-Netanyahu encounter, the combined Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah units expanded their thrust from the southern Syrian town of Deraa to the Golan town of Quneitra, within sight of Israel’s defense positions.
All that day, heavy battles raged over the rebel-held line of hills running from a point just south of Quneitra to the Israeli-Syrian-Jordanian border junction. The combined force was supported by Russian air strikes and heavy tanks and artillery, seen for the first time in this war arena.
When the fighting resumed Wednesday, the IDF placed its Golan units on high alert and an extra-vigilant eye was trained on this battle.
The Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah side is gaining a distinct advantage from the deep feud dividing rebel ranks. The Islamic State and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Syrian Nusra Front forces are tearing into each other with suicide bombers and explosive cars. Tuesday, an ISIS-rigged car bomb blew up at Nusra headquarters near Quneitra (see photo)
Russia should immediately (as should Iran) shut down all gas exports to Turkey as long as Turkish troops remain illegally in Iraq.
Doing nothing to respond to this Turkish provocation in Iraq will only encourage continuing Turkish/Western provocations.
Saker, mI think you exaggerate the “full” backing of Turkey by U.S./NATO. The U.S. almost immediately said that it has nothing to do with the attack, noting it acted not as a part of the coalition, but on its own, and the American MSM expressed their outright disgust for Turkey’s irresponsibility.
Saker says that Russia is not ready for this war if it truly escalates. I am not certain I agree with that assessment. I base this on two statements by the Russian President. One during his speech at the G20 meeting. He said that Russia was fed up with the West’s support of terrorism (I paraphrase) and that things had gone far enough in Syria. This statement by Putin was a true turing point for Russia. No longer would rthey sit to the side, but they would take action against all terrorists and those who support them. Terrorism is an existential threat to Russia and Putin considered it time to announce to the world his intentions. Now he would not have done that if he knew that Russia could not back it up with action. He would never put Russia at risk without knowing that he was dealing from a position of strength. As Saker has said on many occasions, Russia does not bluff. It simply states its position and you accept it or not, but beware of thinking that it is a bluff.
Secondly, Putin stated very clearly recently that he did n’t want war, that he wanted to join forces against Daesh and wipe them out. But the key statement he made was that if those who support terrorism escalate,anyway, the Russia knows what to do. Russia knows what to do. This is absolutely no bluff. It is a calcualted statement of defience and warning. If these folks want to push him too far, he will act accordingly – he KNOWS what to do.
Russia is ready.
Can you all take a look at this photo:
This was just AFTER the Turks shot down the Russian’s plane. Obama looks furious. He is glaring at Erdogan while he extends his right hand and his left hand is in the shape of a pistol.
If body language is anything to go by it seems US is very unhappy with Erdogan.
Of course NATO had to cover for the Turks ex-post, much like a parent covers for their child when they do something stupid..
I respect Saker’s opinion that NATO Is involved in the shoot down, but I wonder if was really that premeditated & planned?
Yeh, Chicago Mob Boss meets Ankara Mob Boss.
Unfortunately the Director in this sitcom is not Francis Ford Coppola.
I agree Serbian Girl, Barry, the obomber-in-chief is not a happy camper.
The Turks on the left of the picture are smug,smiling and openly laughing.
Interesting times ahead for the Sultan of new-Ottomania.
Hi Serbian Girl…I don’t see what you see…I see an incredibly weak black guy shaking hands with a gorilla.
hahaha! Great captions!! :-D
Was it just a coincidence that members of this long-term, NATO-sponsored, pan-Turkic paramilitary group, with direct connections to recent Turkish-linked terrorist atrocities in China and Thailand, were in the right place at the right time to kill the Russian pilot after he ejected?
Was it just a coincidence that, within a couple of hours, Fox News and CNN reporters were there on the scene to interview this Turkish ‘Grey Wolf’ and broadcast him gloating about the murder of the Russian pilot, in doing so pushing Turkish/Russian relations past the point of no return?
Is it just a coincidence that this is the second time in the last 18 months that a non-EU country on Russia’s border has seen its relationship with Russia destroyed over the shoot-down of a plane(MH17, previously) and promises of entry into the EU?
Can it really be seen as a coincidence that, just a few days before the Turkish PM was scheduled to go to Brussels to talk about getting a €3billion hand out for dealing with Syrian refugees and fast-tracking the long-sought-after Turkish entry into the ‘elite’ EU club, someone shoots down a Russian bomber from Turkey, forcing the Turkish government to ‘own’ it and thereby destroying their relationship with Russia?
the fundamental law of probability, the ian flaming’s rule
once is accident, twice could be coincidence, thrice……enemy action !
I think there is a VERY soft underbelly to the West, and that is their very corrupt politicians. Surely Russia has a LOT of dirt on them, which, if enough were released to the media, would give those supporters in Congress against Russia pause for thought, at least.
If the West retaliated likewise against Russia, it wouldn’t have such a big impact, maybe in the single figures compared to the reaction in the West. So an easy assymetrical advantage to Russia.
Glove-puppet press won’t do anything.
There’s two ways for Russia to succeed: Military success, and diplomatic outmaneuvering.
So far Putin’s played a great game, but Obama continues to have an abundance of trump cards – namely wide-scale infiltration of political leadership throughout the world, and the fully insulated existence of Washington DC/NYC from harm
successful US General from the civil war era said about his military strategy:
i gets there firstest with the mostests
I am glad I was the first one here to ask the key question: what about Iran ?
Anyway, I am depressed after reading this article by Saker.
Saker said that Russia cannot do anything about Montenegro. That is absolutely devastating. Why? Because, according to all investigations made by pro-NATO media in Montenegro, well over 70% of its population is AGAINST the entry of Montenegro in NATO.
If, in spite of that fact, Montenegro enters NATO, and Russia is unable to prevent that, it means that we overestimated Russia totally.
Once again,if 70% oppose it why are they not out in the streets. And staying there until the regime backs down. The problem is, the opposition in Montenegro won’t play the cards they hold (if they hold them). Simple protests won’t change anything. Even though used for bad purposes in those cases. The Arab Spring,and maidan show what can be done if people really are committed to something. So if the “people” are really pro-Russian and anti-NATO,let them show it. Russia can’t/won’t commit to supporting something unless they see that is what the people want. It really is up to the people there to show what they want.The same goes for Serbia too. I hear things on sites about the “brotherhood” of the Serb-Russian people all the time. And yet except for a few politicians and posters on sites I don’t see the “masses” of people in the streets.Its all well and good to be pro-Russian with words. But what Russia needs from her friends are actions. The Serbs (some) do at least volunteer to go to Donbass. And a lot of good Serbs have gone there. But still,more needs to be done there,and more importantly inside Serbia. Once Serbia joins the EU she will just be another Bulgaria or Slovakia. Talking about supporting Russia while voting with the West for sanctions.
The real question lies with Russia’s allies.
If Russia is backed by China, Russia cannot be defeated at home.
If Russia is backed by Iran, Russia can win in Syria.
This thing with China, Russia, and Iran is that all of these countries are fighting with their backs against the walls. To lose means a horrible future for their populace and even to see an ally country fall would be a huge set back.
Meanwhile EU countries and even America are pampered nations with no real skin in the game. There is no reason for these countries to be at war, and the slightest discomfort back home will mean the populations will rise up and revolt.
Russian, Chinese, and Iranian populations are different. They know they are in it till the end and will back their leaders all the way.
There is much touting of NATO art 5. People ought to read this and the history of it.
Art 5 depends of the domestic law and procedures of each member. It’s a chimera, a mirage.
That said, it may work because the people believe the TV…
Article 5 of the NATO charter states:
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them may exercise their right of individual or collective self-defence, recognised in Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, and will assist the party or parties being attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
North Atlantic Charter: Washington DC, 4. April 1949
Note that the Article does not require any action whatsoever by any party, but simply states their pre-existing Right, under the UN Charter, to individual and collective self-defense. The Article quite specifically leaves to each individual State Party the matter of what, if any, sort of action the individual State may take. In the history of the Article, moreover, it is specifically made clear that such actions are to be consistent with the Laws of each individual State. Thus, for example, in the U.S., a Congressional Act, a Declaration of War would be a prerequi
For those who become overwhelmed with the left brain synthesis, here is an article from a source and corner of the internet who called the Greek crisis most correctly using her paradyme. Here is her take on 2016 from an astrological perspective.
This analysis is not up to the Saker’s usual high standards. As a matter of fact, there are some glaring bits of illogic. If it was indeed inevitable that the empire would strike back and that Russia cannot take on the collective might of US-NATO in Syria, then why did Russia go in in the first place? Surely, the Russian military planners factored in the likely response of the empire. Further, why move in more hardware (S-400, advanced planes) if the intent is to retreat should the enemy escalate and not to fight. Doesn’t make sense.
Yes, I (and many of us on this site) pray and hope for Russia’s success, and yes, Russia has to be very careful – very, very careful – for it is up against powerful forces of evil; but a time does come when a fight becomes inevitable, unless the intent is to surrender. Russia has failed to draw red lines, again and again, and its responses have been week and late. The price for not taking a stand is that you keep getting pushed farther and farther until you are up against the wall with very little room to maneuver. This is not a metaphor, it is the sad reality. Russia surrounded on all sides, nuclear weapons right under its nose. If a stand is not taken in Syria by Russia, then the next provocation will be right on Russia’s doorsteps, if not inside Russian territory.
If the Saker is right in this analysis, then Russia made a huge mistake going into Syria in the first place. As an aside, the only way this can be explained is that Russia (once again, alas!) misread the Europeans, hoping for their neutrality. Well those hopes have now been put to rest and it looks like decision-time now.
So while NATO is piling in . . . .where is Russia’s “strategic partner” China in all this?
Have they said anything?
Are they doing anything?
Have they no interest at all in what Russia is facing. Just where are they?
This Is the most populous country in the world with the biggest productive economy and a fellow member of the Strategic Cooperation organisation.
Maybe there is also another lesson here for brave Russia in just how much it can count on it’s “partner” when push comes to shove – looks like they are not even getting verbal support.
What does the Saker think of that?
Please don’t use capitals – its like shouting.ModTR.
Actually China did back Russia:
China will not take part in European’s Ethnic and religious conflict. Chinese people are not any one’s canon folder, include their own government.
Re: veritas Yes and more of the same is needed
Re anonymous Well Syria of course is not in Europe but in Asia, the same continent as China.
Look – isis is merely a weapon of Anglo Zionist hegemony. They plan to bring down all countries which do not accept US diktat.
China is a target too. This terrorism is global.
Even a powerful speech by the Chinese gov in support of this anti terrorism effort could help deter western hotheads from thinking Russia is defeatable. Unity amongst the non Anglo Zionists countries is absolutely vital at this time.
Show strength, unity and determination and they will back down. Ideally China could dump it’s US treasuries in one fell swoop because it is the money other countries lend to the US that ironically funds it’s terrorism but I doubt they will do that.
Yes China is a peaceful country, We know and value that but maybe a bit higher global profile is needed because the way I see it the house is on fire and the flames will come to China sooner or later unless this war on humanity being waged by the Bankers is won.
So does who Chinese suppose to fight there? For whom?
If the Chinese believe that they can ride this one out, then, they are sadly deluded.
Havent you guys noticed that; the Japanese Dogs of War – with full US backing- have just been unleashed from their constitutional shackles? And, know this; Tokyo, will waste no time in baring its fangs in the S.China Seas and elsewhere.
Japan just announced last week that it will be unveiling a brand new Stealth plane, and is now busy upgrading its military to “support allies in the region”. The term “allies”, as used here, is just diplomatic code for; every, and anyone with a territorial dispute with Beijing + US, and Australia.
So, all of this is primarily aimed at China.
The Empire is well aware that it is unable to confront Russia and China simultaneously. Consequently, they have decided to take down the Russian Bear now, and deal with the Chinese Dragon later.
Beijing must take a stand in Syria now and help Russia stare down the Empire, or betray an ally and suffer consequences later…
I agree fully with Jaro. if the Chinese do not take an active role now supporting Russia, they will end up regretting that!
Chinese will defend her border from any one, not only west!
Re: anonymous (China)
Please read the post by Jaro. It is absolutely right.
You say China will defend her border against anyone.
Sorry but this is not the 18th century.
How will you defend your country against the loss of Russian energy and missiles that can travel 2000 km?
If Russia goes down what will China do in the face of a Japanese/US naval blockade in the S China sea?
And all this without anybody coming near the Chinese border
Are you seriously saying China should ride this out, ignore events elsewhere and do nothing unless a foreign army shows up on her border.
Believe me – and I am one who admires China’s many achievements – if you think like that, then it will be all over for China without a single soldier appearing.
What is required at the very least right now is a loud declaration by China condemning western lawless aggression and furthermore a clear and unambiguous statement that if Russia is attacked China will stand shoulder to shoulder with them and stand up for international law and the rights of sovereign independent nations.
This is the best and in my opinion the only way to guarantee global peace – and to protect china.
Yes, Saker’s writing here is hardly a Henry V ‘once more unto the breach’ rallying cry for Russia.
However, it is good to counterbalance and point out weaknesses and strengths and Putin (and his colleagues), accomplished in judo, is proficient in using an opponent’s strength against them.
Perhaps his response is a fiscal one? For example, this article by F. William Engdahl ”
Russia’s Dollar Exit Takes Major New Step
Could it be part of the answer?
What is it though with NEO? They have superb in depth articles the credibility of which is constantly diminished by grammatical, spelling and informational errors. These errors are not those forgivable and understandable ones made by those whose native language is not English.
They are errors in otherwise extremely eloquent writing – ‘it’ instead of ‘if’ and ‘malapropisms’ like ‘delusion’ when they mean ‘allusion’.
Here’s an example of informational NEO nonsense:
“The overall area of the regions with predominantly Kurdish population amounts to around 450 million square kilometers“
There’s a small problem; the entire world’s land mass is only 149 million square kilometers. Check it if you don’t believe me.
Why does NEO not acknowledge these mistakes when notified or ever bother to correct them?
I have actually wondered if NEO is infiltrated by diabolically cunning subliminal Hegemon propaganda.
Well that’s just another site like this one. The articles are written by amateurs who are sort of journalists.. Means it would be like pepe 20 years ago.. I been reading him for like 13 years now.. Many of these people are not English speaking.. Heck reading me you would think English is not my first language.. But in person people are surprised I speak such good English.. Its relative..
I don’t think they have an editorial staff.. They have a couple of guys who travel to get some news but they are a very small outfit. Did you know a couple of them travelled to Syria and met some of the Syrians? Not in the class of Fisk or anything.. But hey what do you expect.. With like the NYT 10 people go through an article, they have people to fact check, grammar check, format check and editorial check.. I wonder if anyone besides the saker ever check anything posted on here..
It’s the information errors that bother me the most. If that is incorrect and I have no way of knowing it then I have been misled. I knew the square kilometer figure could not be correct, but what else is incorrect?
As far as spelling and grammar go, it is usually understandable even if mangled a bit. Frequent errors highlight someone not fluent in English. I frequently commit English grammatical errors and typos and you should see the hatchet job I do on my very rudimentary Russian. So if I seem otherwise I am very understanding of attempts at English that are less than 100% and very encouraging of those that try. I know how difficult it is to learn another language, particularly if not immersed in it and especially if it is a highly inflected one like Russian.
What grates other than the information errors are the odd sprinklings of bad characters in an otherwise very eloquently written article -far better written than anything I could create. Some of these are also written by well known native English speaking authors who presumably would edit and proofread prior to publication.
It’s almost like they have a subtle virus that every now and again throws in a random character when copying. Bizarre.
I think that has to do with different languages to English conversion… So if you are using a Chinese language editor, then cutting and pasting the data to a us post and not thoroughly verifying it. I think some languages use 65535 letters of alphabet while English uses less than 256.. I have major problems with when I want to save a file from a Russian site as the file name ends up being garbage I am unable to type. For the last decade or so they have made it interchangeable.. by making US editors also 65535 letters.. But problems still persist.. Blame it more on lack of resources. I follow some of these people and they do it as a hobby.. So since I don’t pay them I cant blame them. Every bit of info helps.. true or not.. Helps keep me on my toes..
Thug Life: Turkey update:
Almost 100 people have been taken into custody on charges of insulting President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the past 10 months, according to a human rights report released by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) on Saturday.
The report, launched by CHP İstanbul deputy Sezgin Tanrıkulu, says 66 of the 98 people arrested were held on trial.
pick a scenario—one of these has to be on the outcome side of a coin toss:
Turkish FM says ‘provocation’ as Russian warship flaunts missile while crossing Bosporus
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu met with a group of Russian citizens living in Antalya province over the weekend and tried to reassure them that Turkey and Russia will overcome the recent crisis through open communication between the two countries after Ankara shot down a Russian jet at the Syrian border on Nov. 24.
Your analysis is terrifying, however the Baltics and the Black Sea Regions are not far more than 1000 km from Russia. And the Baltic Sea as well the Black sea are a perfect trap for ANY Nato Navy, and also airplanes. And hitting directly Russia soil, will mean hits to the mainland of the aggressor states. Who is the first to like it, let him make a step forward….
“… the Baltics and the Black Sea Regions are not far more than 1000 km from Russia …”
My dear, Russia is on the Baltic Sea and on the Black Sea………..
!!! – what a cute comment
I think they meant between the two seas, was only a little more than 1000 km’s apart..
news from Friday in case it was missed:
there’s no money in it!
The amount of oil being smuggled into Turkey from Syria was not enough for anyone to profit from it significantly, a senior US State Department official said on Friday, rejecting claims by Russia that top Turkish officials were benefitting by smuggling oil from areas of Syria controlled by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
The west I believe will not go to war. There is just too much at stake. I believe what they are doing is they are shifting the epicentre of the war on ISIS into their favor and steal the momentum from the Russians and co, by raising the stakes. When the stakes are high enough…almost at war kind of..then they will demand for settlement with them all included..not just a Russian victory. I beleieve that’s the game here.
on the contrary.
me thinks, west is despatare to instigate a major military exchange as means to remain a viable superstate for a wee bit longer. it’s the use of us military that’s shoving us dollar down everyone’s throat, while at the same time and increasingly so, the use of dollar as reserve currency is being degraded, diminished mainly by brics countries. the rumour is that the saudis are about to start selling for renminbi in addition to petrodollar. all this is eroding the hegemon who does not know any better than misiles and nukes.
this is what vladimir vladimirovich was denying them the pleasure of and was holding out for this long. but i have no doubt that the man who wears his wrist watch on the right hand and his team are able to switch to a lot cleaner and meaner means.
such as , just as an example, issuing an emp attack on us at a convenient time for all.
at the moment, vladimir and his team are still in the process of umasking of various players – for public consumption of course. he and the team must have known this all along – with every passing day one gets a new revelation evidenced. the latest being the actual role of nato which transpired as, confirmed by its’ representatives: a crime syndicate in the business of protecting its brothers in crime – became more than obvious to the russian public and that’s what matters, that’s where his support lies.
Whilst one respects the Saker’s writings there is no doubt he is very defeatist. For him the battle is over, the AZs have won and the best thing Russia can do is run away and wait to be destroyed which of course is the endgame.
Just why can’t Syria be defended exactly? Why?
And if Syria is “sacrificed” won’t it be Iran’s turn next and ever more aggression against Russia?
As has been said before any compromise is seen is weakness. Sooner or later you have to fight since they want you dead anyway.
Thank God the Vietnamese and the DPR and LPR didn’t just say to themselves as does the Saker “Oh dear we are so outnumbered by the most mighty empire aka the USA that we might as well just hand over our countries.”
So what if some NATO planes get shot down? No there won’t be an immediate all out nuclear war. Removed. No personal attacks.ModTR That is just what they want you to think
Please Saker if all you can do is berate those with the courage to take on and defeat this monster removed. Morale is 50% of a conflict and blogging that we are done for is tantamount to betrayal.
I don’t think they are all that powerful anyway. For one thing the western economies are bankrupt.
This, from RI’s article, rings true: “Already, murmurs in the halls of power around the world are noting that NATO’s “victory” over Russia’s single Su-24 came at the cost of weeks of planning, absolute treachery, tremendous expenditures in political capital, and included blatant war crimes just to kill a pilot and a Marine. It is unlikely that NATO will be able to orchestrate another ambush of this magnitude, but even if it could, it would do so only to further confirm to the world the lengths it must go through to achieve superficial primacy over Russia in a conflict it has otherwise clearly lost.”
Unfortunately, here in the US, the fact not being admitted is that the last war fought in both Iraq and Afghanistan has been an absolute disaster, in both American lives and prestige. Why that has occured is the result of think tanks and academics running our military and foreign policies. Those who sit in conferences in the best hotels, eating and drinking the best of everything, who never even shot a paper clip using a rubber band, sending our best to fight their war. Our soldiers have returned destroyed both physically and mentally. And they are given low grade care and are seen with contempt by those very elites who sent them there in the first place. Now these elites want get into a fighting war with Russia. It is beyond belief. Russia is not just any country. They know how to fight and win battles and have the muscle to do it. And will not back down. I’m not a military expert, but analyzing this scenerio, you don’t have to be one to see the end result.
BREAKING: International Coalition bombs Syrian Arab Army positions in Deir Ezzor
Fort Russ – 6th December, 2015
Al Masdar news
looks like another Putin farsighted masterpiece shaping up, following up on siding with the frenchies & then allowing that open-ended UN resolution to pass uninhibited:
It has been confirmed that ISIS immediately attacked Ayash military base immediately following the airstrikes.
The Syrian Arab Army have been in control of the Ayash military base for the entirety of the war, questioning American intelligence whether this was a deliberate attack.
“Unfortunately, here in the US, the fact not being admitted is that the last war fought in both Iraq and Afghanistan has been an absolute disaster, in both American lives and prestige.”
Yeah, the American-led war that killed over 1 million Iraqis, Afghanis, etc., decimated entire regions of the world, and spawned jihadist terrorism (often by design) is an absolute disaster … because of the cost in American lives and “prestige.”
This comment above exemplifies the sociopathic narcissism of Americans.
The only thing that really counts is Amurika!
Forget about the millions of people victimized by the USA.
2 things of note happened in the last 24hrs
1- Turkey was given a 24hr ultimatum by Iraq to get its soldiers, ensconsed in Kurdish-controlled area, the hell outta Iraq territory. Turkey apparently intends to send reinforcements.
2 – For the first time US aircraft have directly attacked Syrian Army forces. An artillery position was bombed by the Anglo-ZioNasty empire killing at least 1 SAA soldier
.A New phase of the war is on its way.
Rather than “winding down”, things are about to heat up.
The U.S. is a mess right now. Gun sales are thru the roof, and could get very ugly if there is any confiscation. No one believes the media propaganda. Schools can’t teach. The financial industry is just a big shell game. The millennial generation needs safe places and prescription meds. Over 94 million native don’t work, but the immigrants do. Now the military has decided to send in the girls for combat. We are a bunch of losers living in a banana republic with nukes and biological weapons.
Our master elites may want a to teach Russia a lesson. However they want the U.S. to crumble for the NWO, while wanting it do their wars ( presumably a carbon neutral one). You can’t tell me France didn’t get the nod to “cooperate” with Russia. And why are the Brits bombing away in Syria? How about all refugees being Syrians? Yep, Syria will be empty like early 20th century Palestine. Turkey is just doing their bit in this sick plot. Russians troops and civilians will be targeted in an attempt to create unacceptable loses. Putin’s real answer will be going after the likes of George Soros. My guess is money will be the next battlefield.
1) You talk about the fact that Turkey had shot down the jet and everything, but you do not take into account the fact that since Russia intervened in the conflict, it has already invaded the Turkish airspace several times?
2) How do you handle the fact that Russia was already going badly because of Western sanctions against it, and now where she gets all this moral to sanction a country? This will not end up creating economic problems in the future?
(1) What is there to take into account? The airspace in question, a tiny point of Turkish land jutting into Syria, which incidentally used to belong to Syria, is of no strategic importance, has no important cities and low population.
When airspace is militarily violated the civilised response is to escort the offending aircraft out. No sane NATO country would shoot down a foreign aircraft, particularly one that erred for just 17 seconds. Turkey also violated Syrian airspace with the missile that hit the SU-24 if not also the F-16 that fired it. Turkey violates Syrian, Iraqi and Greek airspace all the time.
The 17 seconds and distance of violation provided by Turkey are also nonsense -they dictate an airspeed that is ridiculously slow for an SU-24.
You seem very sure that the SU-24 actually did violate Turkish airspace; as above and elsewhere there is compelling evidence that it never occurred.
What is absolutely true based on simple physics is that the F-16s were there waiting for the SU-24 -an ambush.
Syria is fucked up and latinamerica is too. Russia will fall soon and China is next.
When they have the total control of the finances in this planet the game is over. There’s no way to move around if you are a country with a very weak economic system like many latinamerican countries have.
I’m sorry, but I don’t see the big turnaround where Russia is all of a sudden in a hopeless battle.
The jihadis are being decimated, the SAA is regaining territory, the shootdown of the SU-24 allowed Russia to bring more hardware in, Erdogan is now being cast as a megalomaniac and the ISIS revenue stream is being degraded. Doesn’t look hopeless from my house.
And what is the West actually doing in response? France and GB are joining the bombing fray, along with the US, and Germany is making some sort of contribution. Mind you, this is all being done to keep Russia from claiming all the credit. The West is dancing to Putin’s tune.
Sure, they would do anything to weaken Russia’s position in Syria, but they have to be careful. Putin, even as seen in the West, is the ‘white hat’ here, while our own leaders motives are looked at with increasing suspicion. In the war of public opinion, Putin is on top.
So, as Russia has increased its operational capabilities in Syria, the West is playing catch-up. Tactically, I see Russia with the strong hand. If Putin can maintain the image he has thus far cultivated, I see no reason to be pessimistic. The West will be unable to pounce as it might like to do.
As for Iraq, that cannot be conflated with Syria. Russia is not in Iraq and likely won’t be drawn in. That would be Putin’s tar baby. Erdogan’s incursion into Iraq is evidence of the door being slammed on him in Syria and of opportunities he sees in Iraq to replace those lost in Syria. Russia will be content to limit itself in Iraq to maintaining the current 4+1 arrangement and nothing more. It is a needed foot in the door to facilitate cooperation with Iran, but not much else, at least for now.
All in all, I’m still cautiously optimistic. Putin has made some masterful moves and is getting more bang for the buck than anyone could have expected. He has been aided by an impeccable sense of timing. I trust that sense to be his greatest resource going forward.
I sadly agree with the above. I have written before but I have to highlight again the lack for Russia of a strong partner in this one. I miss China going along with Russia in protecting Syria at least on paper but they are mostly mute. What is going on with the Chinese? Do not they realize that they are next in the menu? This attitude (Chinese) is rather frustrating.
As things currently stand, with AZE constant escalations,great war is closer now than ever. Will it be fought with nuclear or conventional means it is irrelevant. They are pushing for even greater destruction and suffering. If the Empire succeed in their intent, then it will be a battle lost for Russia and it’s allies.
But a battle lost is not a war lost. We may not be able to stop escalations of hostilities but we will certainly win in that war. Cost in every imaginable aspect will be huge. I have faith that President Putin will manage to perform another gamechanger and avoid escalation as he did in the past. Are we forgetting Crimea and how it was done?
What will happen next is unknown at the moment but it remind me of the time before Crimean referendum and polite green men. This can go either way but it will be something bigger than seen up today. Why either way? Because the Empire has just begun deploying troops (i know they are in the region for a long time) and NATO is not nearly efficient in deployment as Russia. Everything said about Russia’s position in Syria a few month’s back can be said for NATO troops in the region now. Empire is just not ready for confrontation yet. Although their insistence on escalation despite of this fact is serious problem for humanity around the globe.
We are yet to see how Israel will react to possibility of a large scale conflict in their vicinity. Taking into account hastily and half-hearted NATO deployment. Iran is there on the ground. More Iranian presence on the ground at this moment will be counterproductive if escalation is to be stopped. And their diplomatic clout is limited. China’s however is not. I expect to see them react soon. Diplomatic and economic developments have potential to defuse the situation.
And are we forgetting Russian MOD statement for this week,to whom Turkey export ISIS oil?
It is up to Syrian,Hezbollah,Iranian and Russian forces to stand fast and resolute (which they will as shown in the past) in the face of the enemy and keep humanity from plunging into another great conflict. We may see more of Russians killed but President Putin will show restraint. Empire will probably have one more shot but after that…
And in the meantime battle is continuing…but victory will be ours,one way or another. Preferably multipolar world will emerge once more without more unnecessary bloodshed. If not-we have no other choice. Loss of spirit now is due to the fact that although things can go peacefully we see enormous amount of energy spent to go the other way around. Realisation that war is one step closer instead of being three steps further is discouraging. Especially for those who had contact with real war and know that after war nothing stays the same.
Whoever wants war,may he find it in his home.
I assume that russia is fighting in syria so that normal market of demand vs supply returns to oil market and nato alliance is fighting to keep the artificial price control. In the long run as always demand vs supply always returns and with uk and germany now also in the fray annihilation is not far for all of them.
Why didn’t anybody here make a comment for two weeks after the Russian jet was shot down?
Why isn’t now anybody talking about the critical facts that Turkey entered Syria and NATO is bombing SAA?
Do you guys analyze all facts or just the positive ones? Like cheerleaders.
Is Russia going to allow NATO to bomb Assad?
“BREAKING: International Coalition bombs Syrian Arab Army positions in Deir Ezzor” Fort Russ….
“What was especially shocking about this evidence is that it showed the truly immense scale of the smuggling: one photo showed 1’722 oil trucks in in Deir Ez-Zor region” Saker above…
The USA is broke going for Broke, doubling down on PNAC and Full Spectrum Dominance….
In a War With Russia NATO Doesn’t Stand a Chance
As long as we’re talking about a war close to Russia’s borders – conversely defense-minded Russia military is no threat to the US or western Europe
When NATO has sent in all it’s fancy Carrier groups…..the more the merrier….Russia will deploy it’s electronic devices and paralyze them….they will have to be towed out of the Bosphours for all the world to see…..The paper tiger will be fully exposed….Fear Not. This site had the SAA on it’s death bed a week before they took the Kewireis airport……Now they come up with the preposterous notion that Russia cannot take NATO in Syria because it is to far away….which to Russia means the next Oblast…..and Iran is in the picture…..as is Iraq who will by the end of the week demand all US forces out of the country and formerly ask for Russian aid to fight ISIS and Co. Syria will announce all forces on it’s territory without express permission of the legitimate government of the Syrian People will be considered hostile, NATO Bombing raids will stop and Iran& Iraq will take out hostile Kurdish forces under the Barzani group in Iraq. Syrian Kurds are loyal to Syria.
I agree with RR, NATO could be thrown out of the area with a few shootdowns of their bombers and a statement that Syrian territory is inviolate. Who said the birth of the multipolar world would be easy?
But most of all I feel angry that China is burying it’s head in the sand as it could make the vital difference here. it really is worse than disgraceful. If the Russians start taking casualties this will be 100% due to china’s betrayal of it’s “strategic partner” and we will see the Chinese in a new light.
Please stop your anti-Chinese diatrab. The next one will go to trash. Mod TR.
Do you have any idea how many chinese move to USA ? An order of magnitude more than several years ago (it’s full of them in every major company). They buy houses, they invest, they make business. They only care about their short term interest. Don’t you guys follow any of the news in the economic world ? China has 100 times more interest with US and western Europe than with Russia. How many Chinese tourists go to Russia, how many houses did they buy over there, how many companies did they set up in Russia ? In parallel, all major USA companies are expanding their presence in China. I am afraid of the worse … The temptation of getting Siberia can blind them and they might be used, until it will be their turn.
Why do so many readers view this analysis as defeatist? Saker is just pointing out that Russia might not have the strength to prevent Syria’s dismemberment; without triggering WW III. He’s just keeping it real. The fact is, the US is already in there and has been for quite some time. France has waltzed in, and so will the UK and Germany. What does Russia want to do about it? What can you do? Diplomacy had better pick up the ball here. John Kerry? It’s your time to shine!