This column was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-nineteen-of-the-russian-intervention-in-syria-would-russia-use-nukes-to-defend-khmeimim/
The past week saw no decrease in the tense confrontation between Turkey and Russia over Syria. While Russia’s position is simple – ‘we are ready to fight’ – the Turkish position is much more ambiguous: Turkish politicians are saying one thing, then the opposite and then something else again. At times they make it sound like an invasion is imminent, and at times they say that “Turkey plans no unilateral invasion”. Since a UN authorized invasion of Syria will never happen, this means some kind of “coalition of the willing”, possibly NATO. The problem here is that the Europeans have no desire to end up in a war against Russia. At the same time, the US and France refuse to allow a UN Resolution which would reaffirm the sovereignty of Syria. Yup, that’s right. The US and France apparently think that the UN Charter (which affirms the sovereignty of all countries) does not apply to Syria. Go figure…
There are persistent rumors that top Turkish military commanders, categorically oppose any attack on Syria and that they want no part in a war with Russia. I don’t blame them one bit as they understand perfectly well two simple things: first, Turkey does not need a war, only Erdogan does; second, when Turkey is defeated, Erdogan will blame the military. There are also signs of disagreements inside the USA over the prospects of such a war, with the Neocons backing Erdogan and pushing him towards war just as they had done with Saakashvili while the White House and Foggy Bottom are telling Erdogan to “cool it”. As for the Turks themselves, they have shelled Kurdish and Syrian positions across the border and, on at least two occasions, a small military force has been seen crossing the border.
From a purely military point of view, it makes absolutely no sense for the Turks to mass at the border, declare that they are about to invade, then stop, do some shelling and then only send a few little units across the border. What the Turks should have done was to covertly begin to increase the level of readiness of their forces then and then attacked as soon as Russians detected their preparations even if that meant that they would have to initiate combat operations before being fully mobilized and ready. The advantages of a surprise attack are so big that almost every other consideration has to be put aside in order to achieve it. The Turks did the exact opposite: they advertised their intentions to invade and once their forces were ready, they simply stopped at the border and began issuing completely contradictory declarations. This makes absolutely no sense at all.
What complicates this already chaotic situation is that Erdogan is clearly a lunatic and that there appears to the at least the possibility of some serious infighting between the Turkish political leaders and the military.
Furthermore, there appears to be some very bad blood between the USA and the Erdogan regime. Things got so bad that Erdogan’s chief adviser, Seref Malkoc, said that Turkey might deny the US the use of the Incirlik Air Base for strikes against ISIL if the US does not name the YPG as a terrorist group. Erdogan later repudiated this statement, but the fact remains that the Turks are now directly blackmailing the USA. If Erdogan and his advisors seriously believe that they can publicly blackmail a superpower like the USA then their days are numbered. At the very least, this kind of irresponsible outbursts shows that the Turks are really crumbling under the pressure they themselves have created.
Still, the fact that Turkey has not invaded yet is a tiny minute sign that maybe, just maybe, the Turks will give up on this crazy notion or that they will limit themselves to a ‘mini-invasion’ just a few miles across the border. The military would probably prefer such a minimal face saving option, but what about Erdogan and the crazies around him?
Maybe the Turkish military ought to realize that the country is ruled by the madman and do something about it?
Still, the Russians are taking no chances and they have put all their forces into high alert. They have very publicly dispatched a Tu-214r – her most advanced ISR (Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance) aircraft. You can think of the Tu-214R as an “AWACS for the ground”, the kind of aircraft you use to monitor a major ground battle (the regular Russian A-50Ms are already monitoring the Syrian airspace). In southern Russia, the Aerospace forces have organized large-scale exercises involving a large number of aircraft which would be used in a war against Turkey: SU-34s. The Airborne Forces are ready. The naval task forces off the Syrian coast is being augmented. The delivery of weapons has accelerated. The bottom line is simple and obvious: the Russians are not making any threats – they are preparing for war. In fact, by now they are ready.
This leaves an important question to be asked: what would the Russians do if their still relatively small force in Syria is attacked and over-run by the Turks? Would the Russian use nuclear weapons?
At least one reporter, Robert Parry, as written the following: “A source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me that the Russians have warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Moscow is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to save their troops in the face of a Turkish-Saudi onslaught”. Is that really possible? Would the Russians really use nuclear weapons of things get ugly in Syria?
The Russian Military Doctrine is very clear on the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. This is the relevant paragraph:
27. The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use against her and (or) her allies of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, as well as in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons in a way which would threaten her very existence as a state. The decision to use nuclear weapons is taken by the President of the Russian Federation.
There is no ambiguity here. Unless Russia is threatened as a state she will not use nuclear weapons. Some will, no doubt, say that the official military doctrine is one thing, but the reality in Syria is another one and if the Turks overrun Khmeimim Russia will have no other option than to use nukes. There is a precedent for that kind of logic: when the US deployed the 82nd Airborne in Saudi Arabia as part of Desert Shield the Pentagon fully understood that if the much larger Iraqi army invaded Saudi Arabia the 82nd would be destroyed. It was hoped that the USAF and USN could provide enough air sorties to stop the Iraqi advance, but if not it was understood that tactical nuclear weapons would be used. The situation in Syria is different.
For one thing, the Russian task force in Syria is not an infantry tripwire force like the 82nd in Iraq. The terrain and the opposing forces are also very different. Second, the Russian contingent in Syria can count on the firepower and support of the Russian Navy in the Caspian and Mediterranean and the Russian Aerospace Forces from Russia proper. Last but not least, the Russians can count in the support of the Syrian military, Iranian forces, Hezbollah and, probably, the Syrian Kurds who are now openly joining the 4+1 alliance (Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah) turning it into a 4+2 alliance I suppose.
There is one important feature of this 4+2 alliance which ought to really give the Turks a strong incentive to be very careful before taking any action: every member of this 4+2 alliance has an extensive military experience, a much better one than the Turkish military. The modern Turkish military is much more similar to the Israeli military in 2006 – it has a great deal of experience terrorizing civilians and it is not a force trained to fight “real” wars. There is a very real risk for the Turks that if they really invade Syria they might end up facing the same nightmare as the Israelis did when they invaded Lebanon in 2006.
In the meantime, the Russian backed Syrian forces are still advancing. Since the beginning of their counter-offensive the Syrians have succeeded in recapturing all of the strategic locations in western Syria in slow and incremental steps and they are now threatening Raqqa. See for yourself:
The bottom line is this: the size and capabilities of the Russian task force in Syria has been expanding and the level of collaborations between the elements of the 4+2 alliance has been increasing. Add to this the capability to deploy a regimental-size (and fully mechanized) Airborne force in Latakia if needed, and you will begin to see that the Turks would be taking a major risk if they attacked Russian forces even if Russia does not threaten the use of tactical nukes. In fact, I don’t see any scenario short of a massive US/NATO attack under which Russia would use her tactical nuclear weapons.
Frankly, this situation is far from resolved. It is no coincidence that just when a ceasefire was supposed to come into effect two terrorist attacks in Turkey are oh-so-conveniently blamed on the Kurds. It sure looks like somebody is trying hard to set Turkey on a collision course with Russia, doesn’t it?
Making predictions about what the Turks and their Saudi friends will do makes no sense. We are clearly dealing with two regimes which are gradually “losing it”: they are lashing out at everybody (including their US patrons), they are terrified of their own minorities (Kurds and Shia) and their propensity for violence and terror is only matched by their inability in conventional warfare. Does that remind you of somebody else?
Of course! The Ukronazis fit this picture perfectly. Well, guess what, they are dreaming of forming an anti-Russian alliance with the Turks now. Amazing no? Just imagine what a Ukrainian-Turkish-Saudi alliance would look like: a real life “Islamo-Fascist” gang of thugs combining hateful fanaticism, corruption, violence, strident nationalism and military incompetence. A toxic combination for sure, but not a viable one.
precise, as always…
Well, Turks are baiting Russia, and Russia is patiently waiting for them to enter before wiping the floor with their Neo-Otoman dreams.
Besides, refusal to accept Russian resolution at UNSC speaks volumes about the unchanged imperial plans to carve out transmission belt through Iraq and Syria for the Qatari and Saudi Oil.
Dear The Saker,
Thank you once again for your analysis and also publishing the Russian military doctrine in regard to using nuclear weapons in light of the Robbert Parry comment of a “source”. It seems pretty clear cut.
Putin has praised the forces in Syria today and how they protect the national interest:
The refusal of the US and France to support the UNSC resolution just shows yet again that these countries couldn’t give a toss about sovereignty – only when it suits them. But they will still bleet on and on about Russia not advancing whilst Obama publicly supports Turkey:
and Kerry and Lavrov discuss Russian/US military co-ordination – hmmmm…..
Well the US went and bombed in Libya yesterday – says it all. Their killing of 2 Serbian diplomats has not gone down well in Serbia:
That last wouldn’tbe a message to Rus would it? LookL Libyan sovereignty dos not count, so what we can to to your friends we can do to you too……Turkey has said Rus is a terrorist country, Nato says Rus is equal threat to west with Daesh………..Crimea next?
Killing diplomats gone very well with Serbian pro-western dictator Vucic, he said “We need good relations with America and everyone complaining is a traitor”
“Russia is patiently waiting for them to enter before wiping the floor with their Neo-Otoman dreams”
LOL. You made my day. Thanks.
@”the country is ruled by the madman”
Turkey is ruled by at least two madmen.
Davutoglu in Sarajevo:
“Now is the time for reunification. … From the 15th to the 20th century, the history of the Balkans was a history of success. We can have this success again.”
“We have a common history, a common destiny, a common future. Like in the 16th century, when the Ottoman Balkans was ascendant, we will once again make the Balkans, the Caucasus and the Middle East – together with Turkey – the center of world politics in the future. That is the goal of Turkish foreign policy, and we will achieve it. We will reintegrate the Balkans, we will reintegrate the Middle East, and we will reintegrate the Caucasus on these principles of regional and world peace, not just for us, but for all of humanity.”
Tnx for this link from November 2009.
It is unbelievable if he really held that speech.
He really held that speech and some people in the EU are not amused.
“Ankara is simultaneously developing “a growing number of independent initiatives that are not conceived as extensions to Brussels’ initiatives”, warns the SWP, and points to a conference held in October 2009 in Sarajevo, on the theme “The Ottoman Heritage and Today’s Muslim Communities in the Balkans”, where Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu gave the opening address.”
So the Kurds are in the “right side”? So then Meyssan was wrong?
You’re probably referring to The unavowable project for a pseudo-Kurdistan by Thierry Meyssan.
I figured that Meyssan was right but that subsequently the Kurds were made more interesting and realistic offers by the other side …
TM was largely focussed on the Barzani clan-controlled Iraqi ‘Kurdistan.’
The Kurds are not unified, and the Syrian Kurds (closely allied with their ‘parent’ Turkish PKK Kurds) have evolved politically: they now realise it is in their better interests not to participate in a project which would bloodily carve out a ‘Kurdistan’ on spurious ethnic grounds.
They don’t want to be ‘another Israel’ , much less party to any neo-colonial/oil cartel- manufactured feudal fiefdom – which is exactly what the Iraqi ‘Kurdistan’ is.
Living standards are so bad there that thousands of Kurd families are leaving.
The leader of the Syrian Kurds YPD is resident in Turkey so has to be careful.
Wrong once again concerning the kurds and your insistance that those in Iraq and Syria do not share common goals ir are not mutually allied.
Here is an interesting piece from a site you might consider which contains some very interesting and I believe truthful information regarding the poor, persecuted kurds.
Afrin kurds, aka Khorasan. Remember that bloodthursty terrorist group eminating from Iraq?
It’s important not to view Kurds as a monolithic entity (or any other ethnicity, culture or nation for that matter).
The Yazidi “Kurds” for instance have more in common with Kabbalists and otherwise Talmudists around the world, for ones faith is indeed the innermost of ones being.
‘The Yazidis are monotheists, believing in God as creator of the world, which he has placed under the care of seven holy beings or angels, the chief of whom is Melek Taus, the Peacock Angel. The Peacock Angel, as world-ruler, causes both good and bad to befall individuals, and this ambivalent character is reflected in myths of his own temporary fall from God’s favour, before his remorseful tears extinguished the fires of his hellish prison and he was reconciled with God.’
* Yazidis do not worship the Creator/God but one of his angels (space rat)…
* Yazidi (idol?) god is Melek (in West known as Moloch)
* Yazidi god is flamboyant – alas has an ego
* Yazidi god causes both good and bad to humanity
* Yazidi god’s character caused God to cast him out (from 9th dimension)
* ‘Some scholars have derived the name Yazidi from Old Iranian yazata (divine being)’
–> Decendants of the Fallen Angels (space rats) –> Nephilim, Titan, etc.
* ‘According to the Yezidi calendar, April 2012 marked the beginning of their year 6,762.’
–> Outer wall on a Freemasonic temple on Manhattan it states, built in:
6652 A.L. = Anno Lucifer (Kabbalists are Sun Worshipers)
–> 2016 = 6762
If I’m allowed to brainstorm:
* ‘The Yezidis /…/ before the Azariḳa /…/ it might be inferred that the Yezidis were originally a Ḫarijite sub-sect.’
–> Onomatopoetically “Azarika” resebles to Khazarika –> Khazaria.
–> Harajite = Kharajite ‘of the Khariji sect of Islam
‘Khāriji; (literally “those who went out”) are members of a sect that appeared in the first century of Islam and has manifested throughout the centuries since. It deviated from mainstream Islam and was known for killing Muslims under allegations of takfir (excommunication).’
–> “Those who went out” –> those who took a stance against = apostates.
–> Killed Muslimes = Haram –> do not practice the character of Allah.
–> Accusing others for doing what they themselves do (being Takfir) is exactly what the Anglo-zionist Kabbalists and Talmudists do. Satan is also known as the Accuser (= Diabolos = the one who smears Dias/Zeus).
–> Takfir = declaring (accusing) self-described Muslims are non-Muslims.
Yazidi religious beliefs (Wiki):
* ‘Yazidis /../ believing in one God, who created the world and entrusted it into the care of a Heptad of seven Holy Beings, often known as Angels or heft sirr (the Seven Mysteries).’
–> Seven Mysteries –> Seven Hills of Rome –> Seven Deadly Sins, etc…
* ‘The Kitêba Cilwe “Book of Illumination”, which claims to be the words of Tawûsê Melek.’
–> Like the Babylonian Talmud which explains the dimensions (“My Father has many rooms”) and how to cheat the “karma law” of Creation.
* Melek (god) ‘allocates responsibilities, blessings and misfortunes as he sees fit and that it is not for the race of Adam to question him.’
–> Like Lucifer
To quote Melek:
* ‘I was present when Adam was living in Paradise, and also when Nemrud threw Abraham in fire. I was present when God said to me: ‘You are the ruler and Lord on the Earth’. God, the compassionate, gave me seven earths and throne of the heaven.’
* ‘God gave life to Adam from his own breath and instructed all archangels to bow to Adam. The archangels obeyed except for Tawûsê Melek. In answer to God, Tawûsê Melek replied, “How can I submit to another being! I am from your illumination while Adam is made of dust.”‘
–> How JHWH created Melek reminds of how the Anglo-zionists have created ISIS etc. so to have an Antithesis –> Good (a phenomenon) cannot exist without its polar opposite.
* ‘Yazidis believe /…/ Melek /…/ comes down to the Earth on the first Wednesday of Nisan (April).’
– Anyone who knows if that day is special to Kabbalists or Talmudists?
– Iranian new year is usually around March 21.
* ‘One of the key creation beliefs held by Yazidis is that they are the descendants of Adam through his son Shehid bin Jer rather than Eve.’
* ‘The Yazidi holy books are claimed to be the Kitêba Cilwe (Book of Revelation) and the Mishefa Reş (Black Book).’
* ‘The qawls [hymns] are full of cryptic allusions and usually need to be accompanied by čirōks or ‘stories’ that explain their context.’
–> Talmud, anybody?
Encyclopedia of the Orient:
* ‘The reason for the Yazidis’ reputation of being devil worshipers is connected to the other name of Melek Taus, Shaytan, the same name the Koran has for Satan.’
* ‘but Yazidis find that offensive and do not actually mention that name.’
–> This is a wee bit contradictory, but more importantly, since Yazidis believe in the same Creator as the other three Abrahamithic faiths, do they acknowledge an Adversary to God the Creator?
–> If not, then Melek = Shaitan, for if God exists so does his Adversary.
* Hierarchical, has a worldly “emir/king” and a spiritual sheik.
–> Like other worldly Abrahamitic religions that go against JHWH’s will.
* Strictly endogamous –> esoteric –> like Kabbalists preserv secrets.
Yazidi religious practices:
* ‘Worshipers should turn their face toward the sun.’
* ‘Wednesday is the holy day, but Saturday is the day of rest.’
–> The day of the Creator (Sabbath) is honoured every week.
–> But the (birth) day of Lucifer is held higher.
* ‘New Year falls in Spring, on the first Wednesday of April (somewhat later than the Equinox).’
* ‘An equinox/equilux occurs twice each year, around 20 March and 23 September.’
–> Interestingly the Iranian new year (usually 21 March) is on the “morning” of the year, and the “morning” (Sun worshiping Sunday; first day of the week) belongs to Lucifer just like the last day of the week belongs to JHWH.
* ‘The greatest festival of the year is the “Feast of the Assembly” at Laliş, a seven-day occasion [celebrated from 23 Aylūl to 1 Tašrīn. Aylul/Elul and Tasrin/Tishri are Babylonian names, and 1 Tishri is the new years day of the Kingdom of Judah, as opposed to the Kingdom of Israel]. /…/ The religious centre of the event is the belief in an annual gathering of the Heptad [seven Angels] in the holy place at this time. Rituals practised include the sacrifice of a bull at the shrine of Şêx Shams.’
–> Sacrificing the Bull is Mithraic/Persian/Zoroastrian
–> Bull = Moloch/Baal/Saturnus
–> Ra = the Creator and noon Sun god at Heliopolis, Mnevis Bul, carries the cross
–> Ra was challenged by godess ISIS who wanted her son Horus (the Eye on the Dollar bill) to have the power
–> Aten = an aspect of Ra (just like Melek was created out of the illumination of the Creator?)
–> Pharaoh Akhenaten (same etymology and galactic genalogy as Ashkenazi?) supressed Ra in favour of adoring the (morning?) Sun god Aten
–> Wall Street Bull (Mamon) –> honoring Enlil the Lord of Israel, Prince of the Air, Commander of Earth…
–> Enlil had a house in Lebanon’s Cedar Forest built before Adam and Eve. Jesus refused to kneel before Enlil. Abraham kneeled.
* ‘Hebrew word “Elul” [Aylul – Enlil?] can be expanded as an acronym for “I am my beloved’s and my beloved is mine” (Song of Solomon 6:3).’
* ‘Yazidis make at least one pilgrimage to Laliş during their lifetime.’
* ‘Presence of the dog and serpent in their iconography.’
Yazidi purity and taboos:
* ‘Yazidis avoided military service which would have led them to live among Muslims.’
* ‘Forbidden to share such items as cups [water/life/friendship] or razors with outsiders.’
* ‘Black Book gives them a distinctive ancestry and expresses their feeling of difference from other races.’
–> Sound familiar?
* Adam and Eve ‘stored their seed in a jar which was then sealed /…/ Inside Adam’s jar was a beautiful boychild /…/ known as son of Jar.’
–> There you have it, Yazidis are sons of Jar (sons of Testube, which corresponds with the Sumarian Tablets).
* ‘While other humans are descendants of both Adam and Eve.’
Yazidis in other cultures:
* ‘Yazidi population in Georgia has been dwindling since the 1990s.’
Yazidis in Western theological references:
* ‘Yazidis have a place in modern occultism.’
Encyclopedic Theosophical Glossary states:
* Yezidis /…/ call themselves Dasni. Their religious beliefs take on the characteristics of their surrounding peoples, inasmuch as, openly or publicly, they regard Mohammed as a prophet, and Jesus Christ as an angel in human form. Points of resemblance are found with ancient Zoroastrian and Assyrian religion. The principal feature of their worship, however, is Satan under the name of Muluk-Taus. However, it is not the Christian Satan, nor the devil in any form; their Muluk-Taus is the hundred- or thousand-eyed cosmic wisdom, pictured as a bird (the peacock).
–> The Eye/Lucifer/Cosmic Wisdom/Cosmic Consciousness/Holy Spirit/Holy Ghost/Horus/Apollo the “messenger” who carries Truth in between gods.
Yazidis in Western literature:
* “The Yezidis were Kurdish-speaking, but did not consider themselves Kurds, and expressed to Williams a fondness for America and Israel.” – Kayla Williams served in an intelligence unit of the US Army’s 101st Airborne Division in Iraq during 2003 and 2004.
* October 2006 article in The New Republic, Lawrence F. Kaplan echoes Williams’s sentiments /…/ “Yazidi clerics pray for the welfare of U.S. forces.”
* In Genesis Secret, by Tom Knox, which was an international best-seller in 2006, published in 23 languages, the Yazidis are portrayed as ancient guardians of the megalithic site, Gobekli Tepe, Turkey.
–> Gobekli Tepe has two archeological sites of which the lower is the younger at 14,000 years and contains sculptured animals never seen on earth. This was mysteriously covered – hidden – by hand…
–> Gobekli Tepe’s older site is the 17,000 year old Viet Cong style catacombs at the top of the mountain. My evidence points towards that this is Noah’s Ark.
* look for the clip with Dr. Osmanovic (of Bosnian Pyramids)!
* 17,000 years conforms with Cydonia (3min):
* Yazidi people have suffered tremendously under ISIS yet Barzani loves them and their patrons.
* ‘Yazidi people in the Iraqi Kurdistan claim to be undergoing Kurdification.’
* ‘In Armenia, the Yazidis are recognized as a distinct ethnic group.’
* ‘UN also recognized the Yazidis as a distinct ethnic group.’
* ‘They were the first people to be created in the Garden of Eden, which they claim is a large area centered around what is now known as Lalish in Iraq. A vestige of the Yezidis’ Garden of Eden era is reputed to be Gobekli Tepe, a recently discovered archeological excavation in southern Turkey that has been dated to approximately 12,000 BCE. Then, during and after a great flood around 4000 BCE, the Yezidis dispersed to many countries in Africa and Asia, including India, Afghanistan, Armenia, and Morocco. Returning from their adoptive countries around 2000 BCE the Yezidis played an important role in the development of the Assyrian, Babylonian and Jewish civilizations of the Middle East. Ultimately, the Yezidis amalgamated elements of all these civilizations into Yezidism, including certain features of the Zoroastrian religion of Persia and some from Islamic Sufism, which were integrated into the Yezidi culture by the great 11th century reformer and Sufi Master, Sheik Adi.’
My evidence point towards Yazidi elites (that use the people as their vehicle) are part of the ancient elites; the Gnostic Illuminati that have caused two pole shifts (Deluge’s) already and now keep our minds busy thinking about the Liberal notion of “Realpolitik” (which name alone smells of deception)…
They are the lost Hindus you moron.
First major cauldron formed, there is another in YPG areas as well.. Maybe why the US goes ape and mimics monkey business about SAA and YPG causing trouble for backstabbing pasha gangsters..
ISIS TRAPPED after SAA took *Balat, *Balat silos, *Za’alanah, *Um Turaykiyah. *Aleppo thermal station also LIBERATED
Military situation in #Latakia 20/2/16 after SAA taken Nahshabba and Ain al-Qantara
The Syrian army sources informed on Friday that they are preparing for their new round of military operations against the terrorist groups in the Southern parts of Aleppo province. “The Syrian army and resistance fighters are planning to conduct two separate operations in Abtayn and al-Zorba towns as well as the surrounding areas of Khan Touman town,” the military sources said.
The Syrian army has sent reinforcements to the Southern and Eastern parts of Aleppo province.
Earlier today, the Syrian Army troops and popular forces scored more victories against the militant groups in the Northern part of Aleppo province and seized back one more key village.
The Syrian army troops and the National Defense Forces engaged in heavy fighting with the militant groups in Hraytan region and retook full control over the village of Jubb Ghabsheh.
Scores of the militants were killed or wounded and their military grid was also destroyed in the attack.
Earlier reports said that the Syrian army troops and popular forces have continued to advance against the ISIL / ISIS militants and have only seven kilometers to completely encircle government forces around the terrorist groups East of Aleppo province, FNA reports
“The Syrian pro-government forces have been successful in the recent days, and have deployed forces within 7 km of closing the small gap that is under ISIL control between the al-Bab Plateau and the al-Safira Plains,” the sources said.
“For the last 5 weeks, the Syrian soldiers and their allies have been steadily advancing West towards the Sheikh Najjar Industrial District in order to link their positions in the al-Bab Plateau,” the sources added.
“Once that gap is finally closed, the government forces will have all of the remaining ISIL fighters that are entrenched inside the al-Safira Plains surrounded and there will be no outlet to retreat,” the sources went on to say.
A turko-ukro-wahhabi alliance would not be of a nationalist cast, it would be of an imperial one. I understand why Russians have a somatic fear of nationalism, but it is fundamentally irrational.
> “At least one reporter, Robert Perry, as written the following”
I think you meant “Robert Parry” ?
Yes, thank you. Typo corrected. The Saker
The Major Contradiction
Where would we be without you and your Website?
You write, “Furthermore, there appears to be some very bad blood between the USA and the Erdogan regime. ”
I hope you are correct; however, it appears that the Major (political) Contradiction of our time, is between the Zionist American imperialists, and a loose conglomeration of Anti-Fascist forces, led by Russia. The confrontations over Vietnam, Afghanistan, the Ukraine, and the Middle East, display a clear dichotomy between a reviving Russian Nation, some not yet totally suborned Nations, such as China, and India, and Iran, and the Global forces of Zionist America and their European puppets (definitely not allies).
To label Erdogan, “lunatic,” is to imply a certain sanity to Hollywood Obomber, Land Thief Netenyahoo (America’s acting President), and the bought American Congress, packed with Caligula’s White Horses.
Turkey’s leader, Erdogan, murders thousands of Kurds, represses his political opposition, helps to drive a million refugees – North, shoots down a Russian Bomber, and covers for Turkey’s earlier genocide against Armenians. But we must not overlook his ‘partners’ (to use Putin’s term), who have murdered a million Indonesians, 2 million Vietnamese, 100,000 Guatemalans, and, another million Iraqis, Libyans, Syrians, Yemenis, dispersed millions of civilians, and destroyed a dozen nations.
The imperialist aim for a Totalitarian (by definition), Uni-Polar World Empire, dates back to, at least, the Roman Empire. The Roman Emperors utilized their versions of Blackwater, and ISIS Terrorists, and puppet States, to further their military, political, and economic advance, by their wide utilization of ‘auxiliary’ and other mercenary forces, and puppet states; but the Motor Force behind the overthrow of their Republic (in Dallas-by the Rubicon), the slaughter of the Gauls, the Germans, the Hispanics, the Britons, the Thracians, the Greeks, the Carthaginians, their own peoples, and their Kennedys, (the Gracchi Brothers), and all the others, were the Roman Oligarchs.
They conquered and they made a desert.
“They have plundered the world, stripping naked the land in their hunger… they are driven by greed, if their enemy be rich; by ambition, if poor… They ravage, they slaughter, they seize by false pretenses, and all of this they hail as the construction of empire. And when in their wake nothing remains but a desert, they call that peace.”
― Tacitus, The Agricola and The Germania
When the new Barbarians arrived (approximately) in 400 AD, they rolled over a corpse. They swept through Western Europe, almost without resistance of any kind.
There is no Easy Hope to be found in the halls of Zionist controlled Washington DC.. Neither Sanders, Trump, nor the others, have been placed there for our use. They are Land Mines blocking our road to freedom.
We Americans, (as with our European family), need to restore our Republic/s!
That is the Yellow Brick Road we must traverse!
It is the Only Road!
OK. So, do it!
Thanks for this magnificent overview.
I too have a vision but it involves a severe critique of what virtually all of us are doing to support empires. We’ll have none of it when it strikes too close to home.
Russia has to win the current war on the ground and then we can seek to bring our visions down to earth.
Could Syria be the graveyard of this team? Team chaos.It could very well be for one thing there seem to be split among them.The finance and populace baking for more war is diminished.Recent set back in Crimea ,Iran and now Syria seem to point to a dying empire.America is not the ‘leadership’ in anything now it has become a liability except for weak countries and despots like, Arabia,Turkey,Ukrine,Israel and nato and gcc.The emperor has no clothes!Dont cry for Team chaos!
The future belongs to the so long held ‘underdogs’,people of Donbass,Iraq,Libya,iran,Vietnam,Russia,china who suffered under team chaos for years and years!…and the alawites take the cup!
On reconstruction, learn from those who mastered it. The way for a small group of people to grab and hold land is to organize in kibbutz’s.
A kibbutz is a self sufficient village, but underneath it is tied by tunnels and thus it’s a fort.
Hezbollah studied their Enemy, copied them, and thus they won the 33 Day War of 2006.
IDF tipped ISIS of and they would have overrun Damascus if not Moscow had stepped in.
Must read +++++:
I am not sure if Erdogan is a lunatic.
First of all he is trying to scare Russia off. Second, he is protecting his investment (thousands of destroyed oil trucks imported from US) Third, he is being pushed by his handlers to test the power and resolve of Russia:
First it was Chechnya, then Georgia, then Ukraine now Turkey. The military strength is increasing with each one of them. Just like US was testing itself and its gang in Iraq, Libia (there was never any contest here as Gaddafi turned out to be nothing but a buffoon) now Syria through proxies. It’s all aimed at measuring itself for the conflict with Russia. Nobody bothers China because China supplies West with Goods, so it does not make any sense to bother her.
In the end, if Turkey loses then Erdogan will be impaled (the Turkish style) and Turkey will end up split up.
There is a Polish saying “Nosił wilk razy kilka ponieśli i wilka”, which translates to “carried wolf few time in the end he was carried” it’s like “live by the sword die by the sword”. Personally I like the Polish one better as it reflects the situation better..
Saker, in all honesty, why do you keep forgetting that this same scenario happened in Afghanistan when USSR was invited by the Afghan government. The neighboring country in this case, Pakistan, not only engaged in all kinds of material, training, support, to the Mujaheddin (that was the moniker then :-) ). Pakistan Air force shot down at least 8 Soviet jets. Soviet Union was strong at that time, and they had nuclear capabilities.
Why was not a big deal then, and why is it a big deal now. Now Turkey is doing the exact same thing, only Turkey is much more technologically advanced, and Turkey is a member of the NATO. Far from being a member of NATO, Pakistan was under sanctions by the US and NATO.
The geography is similar–mountains–. Why would NATO or Turkey act any differently now?
You are dreaming my friend. Nothing is the same. I hate to break it to you but Russia never really lost the war in Afghanistan. Liberals in Moscow were simply convinced by his handlers in Washington to pull out and they did.
Besides, Syria is more like Afghanistan. Turkey will never be. If you think that Nato will help Turkey than I suggest to go back to your nargille it will give you nice dreams.
I’ve heard people say similar things bout the Vietnam War and how the USA never lost that war either. Well, my friend, just as surely the USA lost its war in Vietnam War, the USSR lost its war in Afghanistan. To pretend anything else is delusional.
The leadership of the then USSR were right to get their people out. There was significant loss of life there. For what exactly were they being killed? What good all the murder of young Russian manhood and the murder Afghans of all ages? Similarly, the leadership of the USA were right to get their people out of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. For what exactly were they being killed? What good all the murder of young North American manhood and murder of Vietnamese, Cambodians and Laotians of all ages? Who benefited from all this murder, mayhem and suffering?
One would hope that in Turkey there are individuals who understand that they can prevent the loss of life that WILL occur should the Turkish military begin an unprovoked war of aggression with Syria and Syria’s allies (whose number includes mighty Russia). One would hope they act to prevent the killing and see to it that those criminal elements who act to cause such are publicly and promptly bought to civilised justice.
In the meantime let us each avoid legitimising attempts to evade the facts and the lessons of history.
“… Russia never really lost the war in Afghanistan. Liberals in Moscow were simply convinced by his handlers in Washington to pull out and they did …”
… and so – precisely because of Afghanistan – USSR is no more! And so … there was nobody left who “lost the war”… You got at least that much right, Anonius.
Washington’s Machiavellian Game in Syria
much food for thouht in the above link, especially the mosul dam and
‘stupid’ america and ‘madman’ erdogan and devious pentagon officers
‘steeped in the oriental art of war’ thingy.
Stunning article well worthy of further analysis by Saker?
That was a scary but well written article. Thank you
The analysis in that article by F. William Engdahl is brilliant. In fact, I find it deeper, more comprehensive and frankly more convincing than the present article. There are a lot of pieces being factored into the analysis which The Saker simply seems to have missed or for some reason found too insignificant to include.
Another article, also at New Eastern Outlook is this one written by Veterans Today editor Gordon Duff. He also makes a very unique analysis which brings the present point of departure truly frightening as he paints Erdogan’s machinations in dimensions about an order of magnitude greater than other analysts. It’s hard for me to evaluate the soundness of this analysis. If it resists easy debunking a lot of people really need to clue onto Duff’s narrative.
Gordon Duff is a crank, a complete conspiracy theorists….he’s up there with Alex Jones for loony tunes!
Maybe he’s suffering from mental disorder after his time during Vietnam war.
Veterans Today do have some decent writers like J.W.Dean….but I’m afraid Gordon Duff is not one of them!
PS. I read Gordon Duff’s article the other day…..it was bizarre to say the least!
Thanks for the link.
Can’t say how correct Mr. Engdal’s comments may be, though he promises an answer in a couple months! Whatever happens, his comments will likely be forgotten by then.
Can say, with virtual certainty that multiple, probably competing, “think tanks” have worked out many, many senarios about all this, and, buried in the rats nests of all all these decision trees is a node labeled “Russians step in and bomb Assad’s enemies” and many forks off that for possible responses.
Mr. Engdahl’s comments imply that a generally agreed on “line” runs through all that. That seems a questionable assumption. Are all the power centers in Washington really in general agreement? Or, are there competing power centers taking different “lines” through all this?
Key differences between Afghanistan and Syria:
The terrain is actually not that mountainous, much of it is flat or just somewhat hilly.
Much more benign climate, winter practically being non-existent.
Russian participation limited to air support, delivering weapons and munitions, advisory roles, special forces operations (probably), manning artillery units (possibly). Even by Western admission, Russia can maintain the current pace of operations practically indefinitely.
Indigenous forces supported by Russia (Syrian, Hezbollah, Iranian) very highly motivated as opposed to the situation in Afghanistan where no government soldier really knew what he was fighting for.
Adversaries bogged down in large towns and cities (Aleppo, Raqqa, …) that they are forced to hold lest they loose the war.
Russian forces possessing a much more significant technological edge (Su-34, Su-35, S-400 – you name it) and using better tactics than in Afghanistan. Case in point is that just one helicopter has been lost to date, and that was a special situation when the Su-24 navigator was to be rescued.
Russian leadership unburdened by Marxist-Leninist ideological baggage that rendered every setback a catastrophe. Russia is not fighting for world revolution (ostensibly) but for its national interests. Likewise, the Russian population stands behind its leadership , which in very stark contrast to the waning years of the Soviet empire.
The very fact that Turkey and SA are more advanced societies than Pakistan back in the 80s works to their disadvantage. Turkey is a semi-industrialized country, SA totally depends on large, difficult to maintain oil installations That makes these two countries very vulnerable to pinpoint strikes on critical infrastructure should it ever come to that.
Russian intervention not only supported by international law but also enjoying significant popular support in the West. People recognize that Russia is the only great power that seriously fights against terrorism.
Also Afghans were an isolated people. Until the last governments and the Soviets very little of a secular society existed (and that little was destroyed or the persons supporting it fled). With a population almost 100% conservative Muslims. Syria is very different. A large educated secular minority,a large non-Muslim population. And the Muslim population divided into those favoring the government and those favoring the terrorists. With,by most reports,the majority favoring the government.The Turks and Saudis are viewed (we hear) as ex-tyrants,in Turkey’s case,and as backward fanatics in the Saudi case. Russia unlike the USSR has the support of tough fighting allies in the SAA and Hezbollah. As well as Iranian and Iraqi volunteer fighters. Not at all like the situation in Afghanistan. Where they had to rely for allies on an Afghani government army,no better,if not worse than the current one in Afghanistan.
> No – oligarchical interests.
I hope this is not true.
What facts and proof do you have, other than RT’s article about growing income disparity in RF?
I wished they still were fighting for Leninism
See my comment @ http://thesaker.is/french-state-persecutes-salah-lamrani-a-member-of-the-french-saker-blog/comment-page-1/#comment-211847
Fans keep forgetting Moscow did not cut supply lines and take out ISIS means of incomes for a long time and instead went head to head with those units that are the least vulnerable.
And still, that is going for effects (proxies) and not the causes (Ankara and Riyadh).
Moscow has matured tactically but not stratigically, for it is evident that “war” needs to be redefined. The consequences of proxies are the same and thus war must be defined after its consequences, and as long as Lavrov and Moscow don’t study the genealogy of Liberalism they will not overstand how they have created this world and master it.
Neither have Moscow studied the innermost of their Enemy – Kabbalah and Talmud.
Alas they will “win one and lose one”, like Sun Tzu said.
The soviets lost 22 jets in Afghanistan, 9 were destroyed on the ground..
So 13 jets shot down or lost to SAM.. Like 1 an year…
Also the soviets lost 10,000 men in those 10 years.. so 3 men a day.. Compared to the over 50,000 in Vietnam or 15-20 a day.. The soviets also spent a lot more money developing Afghanistan than the military operation.. The US spent over a trillion and what is there to show for it? Still no viable military, no jets, no schools or electricity or roads and even the capital is in shambles.. If the US think this now in Afghanistan a success, then the soviets had turned Afghanistan into a paradise..
Mostly I think the problem was disagreements with the afghan government and not wanting to support some they did not agree with. And Russia is not the soviet union, Russia already got the gas and oil in Syria.. Those rights are why Syria gets all those fancy hardware.. Russia will never leave Syria, I see nukes being used first although I don’t see anyone gathering a force sufficiently effective enough to dislodge the Russians from Syria…. And only the US would be able to put together such a force.. No one else.. Not even turkey.. Direct US participation would mean nato as well.. If thousands of missiles start flying to take out Russian defenses, I see most European capitals in flames before those missiles land.
Moreover, the Soviets built it with their own resources, without any “donor conferences” and whatnot.
Besides, the main reason why Fashington was so eager to support the Afghan terrorists was because the Afghan government had pushed Afghanistan some 200 years ahead.
There are indeed similarities with the soviet operation in Afghanistan.
There however differences.
As the similarities, the fact that the intervention was on request of the local government, and that the soviet troops had militar advantage.
However, the soviet ideology back then was stupidely pro-atheist (which led to the antagonisation of muslim world. An interesting work for a political fiction novelist would be to imagine an alternative world where the SSSR had made alliance with China and Iran back in the 1970-80; I mean, the current situation, but with a much bigger Russia… the world would have been indeed very different)
Also, the afghan government back then had much less legitimacy (issued of a coup, and with strong internal infighting, wih soviet intervention in that internal infighting).
In Syria the foreign nature of most of the “rebels” had become clear for sysrians; while in Afghanistan back then most of the djihadist were actually afghans.
Syrian army and State is also much stronger. Actually Syria has been able to resits absolutely alone, for several years; Afghanistan crushed in months once the SSSR decided to withdraw from the conflict (btw, the SSSR withdrew not because of “defeat”, but because it was decided it make no political sense to be there, actually the intervention shouldn”t have been done in the first place)
The world is also less gullible now. O, yes, there are millions of brain-less people, that didn’t change; but back then people able to think, a lot of them sincerely believed the US lies.
The Saker himself is a proof of that; it had been fooled back then to a lot of things; but not anymore and not now (three things made that possible: better information means; too much imperial lies; and the fact that Russia now as a more moral stance than the SSSR back then).
And, last but not least, the technical military tools are also different, with a clear advantage to the russian devices and equipment that didn’t existed around 1980s.
The overt nature of the Turkish military concentration at the border instead of covert was likely a message being sent by Turkish Brass to both Erdogan and Putin. With US special forces helping the Kurds near Azaz, what needs watching is Turkish behavior as the two Kurdish cantons get closer to linking. The combat around Aleppo is winding down as Daesh gets corralled like the Ukies into cauldrons.
The behavior of the Outlaw US Empire and its vassal at the UNSC was predictable and ought to be written up boldly and used as a weapon against it/them. As for using nukes on Syrian territory, I’d think the Syrians would have something to say about that.
Such a bold write-up was just published at Moon of Alabama, http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/02/us-ignores-own-unsc-resolution-tells-russia-stop-bombing-al-qaeda.html
The best one I’ve read.
Finally some recognition that inside ‘The Evil Empire’ the opinions and desires are not so homogeneous. I also agree that this is the correct relationship between Turkey and USA – far less friendly and far less smooth that many believed. I also agree that invading Turkey will be no walk in the park even without nukes. They don’t need to crush the Turks. They will halt the invasion somewhere, avoid big battles, and then slowly bleed them to death.
Yeah, I agree with everything.
Conflict News @Conflicts
UKRAINE: Reports that approximately 50 people in camouflage clothing have taken over a hotel near Maidan Square in Kyiv.
“Right Sector activists plunge into clashes with national guards in central Kiev”
“Crowd attacks tycoon’s office, Russian-owned banks in central Kiev”
I did read a few days ago that the fascists were calling for riots and a coup in Banderastan. Possibly this is the beginnings of that. Its strange how this “revolution” in Ukraine seems to resemble all the bad events of the 1789 French Revolution,without any of its social positives. I can see Poroshenko and his elements as the Girondists of that country. And Svoboda playing the roll of the Jacobins. We all know how that ended. Both Proshenko and Svoboda followers should be grateful Ukraine doesn’t have a guillotine (yet).
The UAH is back at more than 30 per EUR, even though the EUR did not change much against other currencies on Friday:
So it must have been “adjusted” aka devalued by Kiev’s central bank (probably there are some specific articles about it somewhere).
Together with the recent “news events” from the Rada this creates the basis for potential new waves of blood all across Ukraine.
After a year of slow decline and doubling consumer prices (especially for energy and wather, but still with some remains of “stability” and “normality”) I’m worrying very much about Ukraine’s innocent parts of their civilian population now). Many good people live there, too. Probably at least 10 millions.
Where will this all end …..
Caught On Tape:
Ukraine Nationalists Trash Offices Of Russian Banks; Police Refuse To Intervene http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-20/caught-tape-ukraine-nationalists-trash-offices-russian-banks-police-refuse-intervene
“‘Revolution of Dignity’: Friendly Ukrainian Nationalists Destroy Russian Banks in Kiev (VIDEO)”
would you believe it??
TBILISI, February 21. /TASS/. Georgia’s former president and now governor of Ukraine’s Odessa region, Mikhail Saakashvili said on Sunday his ambitions in Ukraine reach further than the prime minister’s office.
“My ambitions are to establish new rules of the game, which implies a new political elite in Ukraine’s government,” he said in an interview with the Tbilisi-based Rustavi 2 television company.
He said he has gathered around himself “young and promising lawmakers, representatives of non-government organizations, journalists, various regional leaders and deputy ministers and a couple of ministers.”
“These people have got united in a bid to change the country,” Saakashvili said.
When asked whether these people could force a core of a new party seeking participation in parliamentary elections, Saakashvili said, “This is not a party, this is a movement like Poland’s Solidarity of Georgia’s United National Movement.” “Our key task now is to make the ruling elite step aside to give room to new people,” he said.
He did not rule out that many of these people will take part in elections to the Ukrainian parliament. “Ukraine’s current government is to go not because I want to take their place but because Ukraine should not have a government embodying post-Soviet, oligarchic, corrupted values,” he stressed.
As for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Saakashvili said he thinks this man to be “a politician of a very high level.”
Ukrainian mass media reported earlier on Sunday, citing their sources in the government, that Saakashvili could be dismissed as Odessa region governor by early March.
presumably he wasn’t back in Georgia or he’d be arrested?????
There are too many sides involved working 24/7 to dismember Syria, and as long as their military presence is allowed, there is no happy ending in sight, just more war in all its ugliness. UN is manipulated and corrupted. Media outlets fabricate reality as they wish, whatever is necessary to support the puppet master. We have passed that Orwellian benchmark some time ago, and by now, it is clear to all of us where it’s heading. It is good time to read good poetry.
-Tao Te Ching,
The world is a spiritual vessel
Trying to control the world?
I see you won’t succeed.
The world is a spiritual vessel
And cannot be controlled.
Those who control, fail.
Those who grasp, lose.
Some go forth, some are led,
Some weep, some blow flutes,
Some become strong, some superfluous,
Some oppress, some are destroyed.
Therefore the Sage
Cast off extremes
Cast off excess
Cast off extravagance
» Erdogan is clearly a lunatic «
Is he? Look, he has just made the EurocRats give him 3 billion Euros. That’s about 75,000 Germans’ annual income, before tax. Not bad for a lunatic.
Uncle Sam wants to punish Turkey. Not just Erdogan. One, for repeated disobedience along the decades, and two, to end this failed Syrian endeavour on a quasi success.
Punishing Turkey has only become possible after Erdogan screwed up or maybe was lured into screwing up Turkey’s relationship with Russia. Erdogan was wrong to trust Uncle Sam. Anybody would be wrong to trust Uncle Sam. Or the UK, for that matter. They are deceivers and manipulators. You can never trust them. That is the lesson of History.
So Erdogan is not a lunatic, but he has been spun by Uncle Sam into bold and criminal moves, and now that the operation is failing, he’s been betrayed by Uncle Sam, and he’s going to take the blame.
Best thing for Uncle Sam would be a huge regional war, which would bleed all parties and qualify as quasi success for Uncle Sam, but even if that doesn’t come to pass, there is the Kurdish card on the Anatolian table, which is anathema to Turkey, and which might allow Uncle Sam to sell some liar’s success story.
As for a larger regional war, which I hope can be avoided, I have no idea about the Turkish military’s capabilities. It’s said to be one of the strongest in NATO. Which by itself might not be much of a statement. :) But still, I wouldn’t underestimate it.
» If Erdogan and his advisors seriously believe that they can publicly blackmail a superpower like the USA then their days are numbered. «
Unlike the ridiculous EU poodles, Turkey is a proud country and doesn’t need to kiss Uncle Sam’s ass. Turkey was doing fine in the region up until a couple years ago, when someone infused Erdogan with this crazy neo-ottoman project. What if the Turkish leadership analyzes this situation and comes to the obvious conclusion, namely that the USA is not their friend? And that NATO isn’t either? And that the EU poodles aren’t either?
I don’t know how strong the Usanian influence in Turkey is, but I do hope that there is a possibility that Uncle Sam’s arrogant and treacherous plan will backfire, such that at the end Uncle Sam is kicked out of Turkey, with Turkey leaving NATO and go back on the Eurasian track (as Russia has proven to be a very capable leader), including regional reconciliation with Syria, and some solution for the Kurdish people. That would be the best dénouement. And it would be huge indeed and a catastrophic defeat for Uncle Sam. Erdogan sure has proven capable of some surprising volte-face maneuvering. But I don’t know Turkey, so not sure if such a radical turn is possible.
One thing, however, remains absolutely clear: Russia won’t use flying saucers in Syria! :)
I agree with you here. Also that it would be best for Turkey to do what your post advises. I just don’t think they can do that with Erdagon in power. I don’t see how Russia can come to accept him in power. Public opinion in Russia see’s “him” as the new Hitler. Putin is good at convincing people. But that would be one “hard sale” after the Russian deaths already.If he resigns (not much of a chance) or the Turkish military throw him out. Then I think your ideas could surely work. And certainly would be best.
I don’t think a personality question will stand in the way of a renewed Turko-Russian rapprochement if the Turkish leadership figures out that it is best for their nation. Erdogan might step down, but I don’t think it is necessary. After all, he is very popular. He can do a couple of Canossa moves instead. One towards Russia, and several ones towards Syria. Admitting a mistake can be a powerful move, which only a great leader can do.
Erdogan would also know who to blame. Remember, for instance, how Davutoglu said that he personally ordered the shootdown of the Russian Su-24. And what about the reports of the American F-15 jets behind the Turkish F-16 jets? Anyway, a story can be told many ways.
The importance of Turkey is extraordinary indeed. Come to think of it, it’s like Germany, just geostrategic instead of economic. Istanbul has ~15 million people and Turkey will be forever on the exit of the Black Sea. Russia has every reason to restore good relations with Turkey. But Turkey needs to ditch Uncle Sam. And Uncle Sam is giving Turkey the reason to do so. Consider:
» In mid-1975, the Turkish government announced that all U.S. military bases in Turkey would be closed and transferred to the Turkish Air Force. This action was in response to an arms embargo … Only Incirlik Air Base and İzmir Air Base remained open due to their NATO responsibilities … After Congress lifted the embargo in September 1978, and also restored military and naval assistance to Turkey, normal operations resumed in Turkey … «
So what Uncle Sam is doing now can be perceived as several hundred times more hostile than an arms embargo. Why would Turkey not draw the conclusions? With regards to Uncle Sam, but also with regards to NATO? There could certainly be reasons, but I don’t know them, as I don’t know Turkey.
On the other hand, we’re also seeing that Uncle Sam is not infallible, and does make mistakes, out of arrogance, but also out of ignorance. (The two often go hand in hand.) So could it be that he is making one right now by pushing Turkey into war? By essentially backstabbing Turkey? So why not kick the snake out?
The US arms embargo of 1975 was as a consequence of Ankara’s invasion of Cyprus in 1974.
Ankara did not need D.C. then, but now they and Rhiyad cannot take on Moscow without NATO.
“… Erdogan screwed up or maybe was lured into screwing up Turkey’s relationship with Russia. Erdogan was wrong to trust Uncle Sam. Anybody would be wrong to trust Uncle Sam … Erdogan is not a lunatic, but he has been spun by Uncle Sam into bold and criminal moves …”
Sounds very familiar. Just like they lured their big friend & partner Saddam Hussein into invading Kuwait in August of 1990 – and then … step one … step two … and there was no more Saddam. More likely that our Turkish Sultan is a patent fool rather than a loony.
@Lumi”Unlike the ridiculous EU poodles, Turkey is a proud country and doesn’t need to kiss Uncle Sam’s ass. Turkey was doing fine in the region up until a couple years ago, ”
I think so. Turkey is a proud country that takes justifiable pride in its “creation” story.
You can say a lot of bad things about Turks, historically, the sins of the Ottoman empire, etc. But having watched a documentary on Ataturk and the way he pulled together the Turkish people and the Young Turks to repel attempts after WWI to dismember* the Ottoman Empire —the tenacity, the commitment of the people whom he led, of the *whole country* –also the women in the villages, etc. —to salvage and create the country of Turkey from the Ottoman mess and support the military force that Ataturk pulled together—well I for one cannot help but admire the Turks for this historic and courageous achievement. Ataturk was one of the more amazing figures of the 20th cent. and the country can be proud to have produced such a leader.
Obviously the country is a geopolitical keystone. The desire to “join Europe” and the simultaneous resurrection of the Ottoman dream in some camps, plus the drive to “desecularize” the country just looks to me like a witches brew that the Turks—the people who just live there and want to conduct their lives normally— really do not need.
I sincerely hope the Turkish polity and people moves through this mess and comes out on the other side perhaps in the scenario outlined by Lumi.
*I believe the Armenian genocide took place within this context: a drive by many in Armenia to create “Armeniastan” via joining Turkish Armenia to the rest of Armenia in teh Caucasus. One aspect of Devatoglu (sp?) speech does resonate: I think it does make sense to understand Turkey as partly a Balkan, partly a Middle Eastern, and party a Caucasus country, along with its fundamental Anatolian character.
“including regional reconciliation with Syria, and some solution for the Kurdish people”
Would it interest you to know that Turkey, under Erdogan, did offer the Turkish Kurds exactly that?
“Before the collapse of the peace process, leaks about the state of the peace talks suggested that Öcalan appeared willing to support a proposal backed by Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) to transition to a presidential system in exchange for some semblance of democratic autonomy. The move would have helped resolve the issue peacefully by addressing key Kurdish demands (beyond those espoused by the PKK) for greater political and cultural autonomy”
So here are the kurds with an offer presented to them for some sort of democratic autonomy and instead they end their ceasefire and begin attacking Turkey from within.
It is not clear to me at all that “the Kurds began attacking Turkey from within”.
It is clear to me, however, that the Anglozionists – Uncle Sam, the United Kingdom, and Israel – engage in false flag terrorism in many countries around the world, including their “partner” countries.
They did that, for instance, in Iraq, to create enmity between different religious factions, such that they could have their Shia vs Sunni war. They stop Iraqis at checkpoints to plant remote-triggered bombs in their cars, which they then blow up in crowded areas. This is then called a “suicide bomber”. That’s the way Uncle Sam rolls.
I think he’s doing the same thing in Turkey.
Lumi on February 21, 2016 · at 7:28 pm UTC
It is not clear to me at all that “the Kurds began attacking Turkey from within”.
It’s quite clear to me that the PKK did exactly that- though they had an offer on the table
I’ve left these links previously:
“”The PKK announced three weeks ago that it was ending a three year cease fire …..”
” The Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) in a statement released on Saturday announced that a ceasefire with the Turkish government is over………”
“”The PKK announced three weeks ago that it was ending a three year cease fire …….”
Combine the fact that the PKK themselves ended the ceasefire with the news of their being an agreement on the table from Erdogan’s government
“Before the collapse of the peace process, leaks about the state of the peace talks suggested that Öcalan appeared willing to support a proposal backed by Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) to transition to a presidential system in exchange for some semblance of democratic autonomy. The move would have helped resolve the issue peacefully by addressing key Kurdish demands (beyond those espoused by the PKK) for greater political and cultural autonomy”
So I ask, again, why did the PKK break the ceasefire and start the war?
“It is clear to me, however, that the Anglozionists – Uncle Sam, the United Kingdom, and Israel – engage in false flag terrorism”
And all those parties have a vested interest in destroying Turkey
It’s called the 2nd Israel aka Kurdistan
FYI: I have a book embedded at my blog presently- take a look through it, you’ll find it embedded in that post below- It’s certainly an interesting read.
January 2016 article mentions “leaks”, of detained/incomunicado source, “appeared to support”, via February 2015 FT one behind unreachable paywall, regarding what proposal of which peace process.
This game has been going on for too long not to be able to detect the authentic vs inauthentic tones in the various msm/psyops transmissions. Anyone who has kept up with the Ukraine debacle (on top of the Libyan/iraq/Yemen/ … preludes can surely detect the difference between clear incremental proportional response (Russia) vs the hysterical bullying bluff and stuffups (US/Nato/Poodles).
Clearly the Russians will prepare for the various scenarios and (whilst testing their military/airforce/navy and monitoring the opposing sides) will not engage in loud speaker entertainment. Why would they use nuclear when they have several other useful options at hand?
It is the Western ‘alliances’ that need to bluster and propagandize about what Russia might do (all of which are tailored to the boggy-man theme du jour.
No, Russia is slowly cleaning up the mess, protecting its Iran-to-Med pipeline routes, testing its military and adverting its effectiveness to future customers — all the while Obomba fiddles with himself like a modern day Nero watching his ‘Rome’ burn.
Actually it’s all getting rather routine. I’ll take some notice of the increased risk if/when the Turks dare to block the passage to the Black Sea. Until then it is madman’s bluff vs Russian cool.
I think Saker gives too much credit to the US for being rational agents. The current US President is so self absorbed and out of touch, dangerously so for a US President.
Obama and Kerry are natural born liars. They are continuously extending an olive leaf with one hand to Putin and Lavron while in the other hand behind their back they give Ash Carter more rope who then lets Recep’s leash out. I for one think the US has simply ‘elevated’ their game from using a “JV” team for a proxy force against Assad to a “Varsity” level team in the guise of Turkey, the black sheep of NATO.
Nassir below has made a very good observation about the parallels to Afghanistan and the support the CIA and Pakistan gave to those “God Fearing Mujahadeen” that Reagan sent to kill the “Godless Communists”. In many ways, the Paki ISI were able to parlay that support into untold wealth and power in their part of the world (not that the people benefited much) and I am sure Recep and his midget PM are having the same experience. They will never give up that new found wealth.
Now the million dollar question: would Russia use nukes to defend its allies and Russian forces in Syria if the Saudis and Turks decided to try their own version of “Desert Storm” (Call it “Arab Shamal”)
So the question is, Saker, and you know better than I, would a Turkey/Saudi/US invasion of Syria become an existential threat to Russia? I think the answer is yes, because if Russia doesn’t stop the US and NATO in Syria with their “Arab Shamal”, the Russians will have to stop them in Ukraine which would most certainly be the next stop on the psychopathic serial murder tour.
Personally, I think US/NATO decide to rattle Russia’s cage by having Ukraine AND Turkey try their luck at the same time. Meanwhile, the financial war against Russia via sanctions and oil pricing will continue.
Two mutually related questions nag, perhaps “far fetched”, perhaps not…
One is, how ready is Turkey to shut down the Bosphorus strait in case of a confrontation or a preparation of confrontation?
And another is, whether Poroshenko may indeed undertake a land attack on Crimea (as he just publicly threatened … no, announced…) – and so in coordination with Turkey’s actions?
Seems that these are some wild cards. Would Turkey actually use the obvious Bosphorus card, and if so, in which case? Even if Erdogan is indeed loony, isn’t there still some method in his madness?
” how ready is Turkey to shut down the Bosphorus strait in case of a confrontation or a preparation of confrontation? ”
This is a no-go. Not going to happen.
” whether Poroshenko may indeed undertake a land attack on Crimea ”
Cheap talk. Not going to happen.
” if Erdogan is indeed loony, isn’t there still some method in his madness?”
There is always method to any madness. In this case no method will help. The Syrian war has been decided long, long ago. There are simply no good options, not only for Turkey, but also for Saudi Arabia, the GCC, Germany, France, Great Britain, Israel, the US and NATO.
The war of Zion on all non-Zion controlled territories (Russia, China, Iran, Syria…) will of course continue. That is a given. If the ‘by deception & wishful thinking we shall win’ crowd is half as clever as they themselves believe to be, the will concentrate their efforts on different war theaters. Syria is lost to them.
The Saker is less impressed by the Turkish military than I am; and he appears to doubt the strength of resolve among the Turkish people.
Should Erdogan order a seizure of the 100×20 kilometer strip of land along the Syrian border, that he wants to keep open for the rebels/terrorists to use, he can do so without attacking Russian forces in Syria. The Turks don’t have to go anywhere near the Russian airbases in Syria in order to accomplish this.
That strip can be taken from the forces deployed by the pro-Assad element in Syria. Comparison with Lebanon 2006 is not as appropriate as comparison with Ossetia in 2008. Of course there is going to be a costly learning curve! But the brute force of Turkey’s tanks, artillery and tactical air support will overwhelm the ground forces deployed against them.
UNLESS …. the Russians directly intervene, and engage the Turks themselves .
And when Russians intervene, the Bosphorus will be closed to them for the duration of hostilities at least. The Russians would have to choose between all-out war with Turkey or concede the ground to Turkey.
Russia does not have to resort to nuclear weapons in order to deliver a devastating defeat to Turkey. But a conventional war will be more costly in terms of lives lost, equipment and dwellings destroyed, as well as the time required. How much and how long will it take for Russia to seize control of the Bosphorus and the sea lanes from there to the ports of Syria?
It is also almost certain that the United States will look for ways to exasperate Russia without directly engaging in such a war. Most likely, it will give logistical and electronic warfare support to the Turks and will mobilize the Ukrainians to finish off the Donbass Russians.
It is easy to see how a very big war – possibly a nuclear war- could start with a Turkish invasion of Syria, even if its territorial aims are so limited.
Quite right. Russian engagement of Turkish forces in Syria would depend on first what the SAA does and second on what Turkey does with its buffer zone. If the zone is used as a springboard for ISIS attacks on the SAA, them I’m sure Russia would bomb it anyway. And the SAA would attack it.
On the issue of nuclear weapon use, the question is would Russia permit a Turkish/Saudi alliance to seize the base at Hmeimin? I don’t think so. I think Russia would use tactical nukes before it let that happen. After all for the Turks to seize the base they would need to inflict severe damage on numerous Russian naval, airborne and other forces. Can the Turks do this? Im sure they can, the base is close to Turkey’s border and turkey has a serious military.
” Should Erdogan order a seizure of the 100×20 kilometer strip of land along the Syrian border…”
Are you renewing the ludicrous chatter about the legendary ‘No-fly zone that wouldn’t fly’…?
The RuAF probably wouldn’t engage the Turkish Army directly, just giving air cover to the reequipped and quite formidable Syrian Arab Army and the updated Syrian Air Force. And then there is the mutual defense pact between Syria and Iran…
Remember, what you casually call ‘a seizure of the 100×20 kilometer strip’ is actually an invasion! Serious business with serious consequences.
Good stuff as ever.
I agree with you idea that the neocons and other parts of the US are acting with different goals – indeed you could take the whole thing further and recognise that of all the actors in and around Syria at least 3 or 4 of them are separate parts of the US, funding separate groups, making different promises, and briefing reporters different ways. And that these 3 or 4 US groups are perhaps more in conflict with each other than those in the regions not allied to US parts.
(Generally the US is not a top down run country, rather a bottom up one with the elected parts only there to apologise for what is done by the non-elected (and therefore free to do what they want) parts).
On the “nuke threat”. What I would expect Russia to have told Turkey is that they know full well that Nato will not back Turkey in any conflict with Russia, and therefore they would feel free to use nukes on Turkey.
Not quite the same thing, but likely, and quite possibly by the time it was repeated 2 or 3 times might translate into something similar to what Robert Parry claims to have been told.
The Saker is contradicting himself a little bit, as it was only a short while ago that he was implying that the Turkish air force could overwhelm the Russian air detachment in Syria by sheer weight of numbers. Then, pitted without air cover against Turkish and Saudi ground forces, the SAA and its allies would be toast.
Plus, it would actually not be Turkey but Turkey and SA that would be going against the Russians.
They might have to put up with a lot of downed F-16s and F-15s, but the gain might be worth the price.
Which brings us back to the nuclear option.
Would it be worth the price?
The destruction of Turkey’s and the Saudi Air Force’s would leave them both open to their oppressed minorities to revolt without fear of air attack. We could see a huge Shia (in league with the Houti in Yemen) revolt inside SA. And a mass uprising of the Kurds inside Turkey (aided by Russian weapons ans advisers). Not even to mention the hatred of their governments by their own Air Forces for leading them to slaughter.
That is the point. The Saker didn’t contradict himself, he’s simply noticed that Russia has sent more air, sea and cruise missile launching assets to the region and that the Turks could still overwhelm the Russian defenses, but at a horrific cost (even without nukes on the table, FOABs of the type Russia’s TU-160 can drop would devastate Turkish armor if it isn’t sufficiently dispersed and attacking on a broad front). Team neocon that still wants to use Turkey and to a lesser extent the weak Saudis as battering rams against Russia probably thinks as Muslim states the Turks and Sauds can absorb any number of casualties. They also tell themselves the fairy tale that Saudi is pulling their money out of Lebanon to punish the government for being too pro-Hezbollah, as opposed to the Kingdom actually going broke with $20 billion deficits every month!
All the salaries for ISIS/Al-Qaeda/Nusrats, all the TOWs for their AlCIAeda jihadis which don’t come for free from Uncle Sam, this all costs money. We worry about Russia’s economy being ground down by overstretch in military terms like the old USSR and the 5th column doing nothing to protect the ruble, but the Saudis are going to collapse long before Russia because of the level of hatred they have stupidly provoked in the Shi’a and in the Houthis who are ranging across their southwest border at will and may in a general war with Syria would not hesitate to blow up the huge refining complex on the Red Sea at Jizan, either with Tochka missiles or even a brazen suicidal raid that successfully infiltrates the Saudi city from the sea using cigarette boats and Tet-style raiders equipped with lots of C4. For the Sauds protecting their oil infrastructure from both missile and active on the ground attack is a nightmare.
Russia can send all the ground equipment it wants, it still has less than 10 air superiority fighters – Su-30s and Su-35s – at its disposal in Syria. Turkey and SA have in between them 300 to 400 F-16s, F-15s and Eurofighters. If they are willing to accept the losses, then there would be no contest.
And once the Turks and the Saudis have complete control over the Syrian air space, then what? Hezbollah is used to fighting under such conditions but they did so on their own turf which they had been fortifying for many years. The Israelis were also much more adverse to losses than the Turks and Saudis would be.
As for Tu-160s dropping FOABs, Russia has no more than 16 of these airplanes. It’s Russia’s only strategic bomber with any sort of penetration ability. They would never risk one of these by flying it into contested air space to drop conventional gravity bombs.
In the event of a Turkish/Saudi air offensive Russia would have difficulties attacking the main air base at Incirlik, as a US air detachment is stationed there as a tripwire. It’s all very tricky and you have to ask why Turkey and SA have not already committed themselves to an air offensive.
No need for penetration strikes IMO. A barrage of cruise missiles (and maybe ballistic ones) would do too. If they are fired in significant volume, they cannot defeat all …
Cruise missiles and ballistic missiles have to be pre-programmed for them to home in on stationary targets. They are hardly effective against moving attack columns. Besides, the ballistic missiles Russia has, mostly Iskanders, are very valuable and are needed as delivery systems for tactical nukes to deter NATO from attacking in the European theater. This danger is real, NATO is clearly gearing up for an attack via the Norway and the Baltic countries.
It would be another matter with using missiles to attack air bases and infrastructure in Turkey and SA. But that carries the risk of drawing in NATO.
Regardless of how you look at it, you always come back to the nuclear option.
My coment is reply to the part:
“In the event of a Turkish/Saudi air offensive Russia would have difficulties attacking the main air base at Incirlik, …”, not tactical bombing … Regarding conventional ballistic missiles you might be right, RF does not have that many to spare on Turkey …
Your response to my comment presupposes a willingness on the Turks part to take heavy casualties not only the ground, but also losses of combat jets, they haven’t shown any propensity for. Remember if you’re a Turkish general you have to plan for all contigencies and the loss in combat or destruction of half the Turkish Air Force on the ground by a Russian Kalibr cruise missile barrage (hence my sarcastic remark that you’ll know the Turks are planning to attack if they park as many of their F-16s as possible at Incirlik AFB surrounded by U.S. servicemen as human shields from Russian counterstrikes) would have severe implications for Turkey’s combat potential vis a vis not only the Iranians, but also the Greeks.
Yes there’s a 99% chance Greece does nothing particularly under this all talk and no action/knuckling under to NATO/EU Tsipras government. But in a huge war with Russia can the Turks count on the Greeks not taking advantage of their weakness to overrun parts of N Cyprus after their garrison of occupiers there is exposed to naval and aerial blockade? Don’t forget the Elder Paisios prophecies about Russia crushing the Turks in a huge but ruinous war and then the Greeks marching into Constantinople was spread widely during the 1990s and early 2000s via the monk’s contacts with Greek military men, who are likely to be considerably more anti-Turkish and right wing than the generally (and often leftist if not socialist) Greek electorate. I point this out in no small part because an economically wrecked Turkey could not quickly make good its losses in F-16s or even its old F-4s by buying new Western jets. The Saudi Air Force has proven itself to be a non-factor except for bombing civilians and Houthi tribesmen with no air defenses in Yemen.
Thus the issue isn’t Turkey’s capability in extremis to overwhelm the defenses at Khmeimim, it’s Turkish fears about massive Russian retaliation up to and including the use of tactical nuclear weapons balanced against rage/wounded pride over a contiguous Syrian Kurdistan emerging backed by Assad, Russia and Iran (and inexorably linked to Iraqi Kurdistan which is a U.S./Israeli project). When you consider that President John F. Kennedy (despite being pushed by hawkish advisors like Gen. Curtis LeMay) refused to strike the Soviet contigent on Cuba 90 miles from Miami in October 1962 due to Soviet tactical nukes and the IRBMs being on hair trigger alert (without dead certainty that every missile would be destroyed before launching on CONUS), and now you realize the Russian force in Syria is significantly more advanced and powerful than that recklessly exposed Soviet force was in Cuba, then even an all out Turkish assault on Latakia with U.S. backing is likely only to result in massive conventional cruise missile if not tactical nuclear retaliation by the Russians.
Thus the Saker has correctly concluded that the only realistic options for Ankara are a limited Turkish ground offensive that seeks to achieve via piecemeal tactics and is rationalized by vicious western Russophobes as simply ‘Erdogan copying Putin’s strategies of hybrid war in Donbass’. This could be bolstered by the Turks closing the Bosporus to Russian shipping although many commenters here don’t seem to ask themselves why Erdogan hasn’t done that yet…Southfront analysis came to the conclusion it’s because Turkish generals informed Erdogan the Syrian Express could continue to operate via the Baltic and even Northern Russian Fleet ports with icebreakers. Also I’ve yet to see anyone on the pro- or anti-Russian side of the Syria-Turkey war discussion mention it, but I’m quite confident the Sisi junta turned government of Egypt could in a pinch send large quantities of small arms, shells and tank rounds to the SAA via the Suez port and Tartus in order to address Syrian shortages caused by a Turkish closure of the Dardanelles to Russian shipping.
The only true way to stop the Syria Express is a NATO/US Navy blockade of Syria which runs the risk of a global war, particularly should China send a single warship or two in solidarity with Russia and Iran to the eastern Med.
My expectation is that Turks continue to make noises and shell the Azaz area but largely failing to prevent the emergence of a potent Rojava on their border and the defeat of their head chopping ‘moderate’ jihadist proxies by the SAA/Iran/Hezbollah/Russia/YPG coalition. If Erdogan pushes for more he runs the risk of being deposed in a Turkish military coup, the likes of which certain key players (Israel cough cough) would not necessarily oppose if they thought it made an autonomous Kurdistan more rather than less likely.
How opportunistic it would be of Athens to fulfill the prophecy of Elder Paisos without standing on the side of righteousness against what is violating them every day and nowdays threatening them and the whole world. Then there’s the gas and oil that Athens has not been allowed to tap into and Ankara is trying to grab both Greek and Cypriot EEZs.
There is no question if Ankara will keep on violating Greek sovereignty and budgets, increasingly.
But there is an unexpected problem for Athens in that most their hi-tech is US made. As I’ve heared, when Operation Desert Storm started in 1991 the US made hi-tech equipment of Iraq seased to function – D.C. switched them off.
Anybody else hear that?
” And once the Turks and the Saudis have complete control over the Syrian air space, then what?”
What are you talking about, Golem? It’s only in your dreams that Turkey and Saudi Arabia have Air control in Syria. Not going to happen.
I’m talking about a saturation attack on the Russian air assets in Syria, conducted by waves of fighters drawn from a combined Turhish/Saudi force consisting hundreds of fighters consisting of F-16s, F-15s, Eurofighters amd Tornados. The Tormados might not be very good as air-to-air fighters, but they can carry anti-radiation missiles.
And no, I am not dreaming about anything, I’m just trying to assess what’s real, by contrast to so many who actually are actually dreaming of Russia being able to stand up against such adversaries.
One wonders, however, if a suitable command and control structure can be implemented to effectively carry out such an operation. The Saudis particularly are reputed to possess little more than a ceremonial level of military capability. Would they trust the Turks with commanding their air assets?
In any case, it seems beside the point. From what I’ve read, the Turks and Saudis have offered to participate in a US-led coalition and no more. This seems to be a rational perspective. However, the US government has refused to initiate such a war. This is also rational since the destruction of Syria and removal of Assad is not in the essential interest of the US, especially at the risk of starting World War III. The interests of Israel and the international oligarchy would rate these priorities differently but to date do not seem to be dictating US government policy. Why this is not happening frankly remains a puzzle to me.
Northern Thundrer has 2,500 aircraft, 400 helvopters. They can overwhelm Russia.
Here’s some numbers.
* 240 F-16 (Block 30/40/50)
* 30 new F-16 Block 50+ built in 2007
* …and upgraded all Block 30/40/50 F-16s to Block 50+ standard
* 54 F-4E were in 2000 upgradeded to 2020 Terminator
* RF-4E reconnaissance (a squadron, 24?)
* 8 SAM squadrons
* 70 F-15C
* 16 F-15D
* 70 F-15S (will be upgraded to SA)
* 84 F-15SA (Strike Eagle) since 2013
* 48 Typhoon Tranche 2
* 24 Typhoon Tranche 3A
* 80 Tornado IDS
* RF-5E reconnaissance
* 3 RE-3A EW craft
* SAM squadrons
And GCC might join.
And as soon as war is on then NATO (in place..) will jump in – pushed by media lies.
If the Turks attack Russian troops it won’t matter about any NATO reaction to Russia attacking Turkey. Russia will figure they’ll deal with that later (by destroying any NATO attack). The immediate task will be the annihilation of the Turkish military. And probably by destroying Turkey so badly that they will drop out of the war totally.I doubt any mercy will be shown them (and shouldn’t be). An object lesson needs to be shown to NATO and the EU. And no better target for than that is Erdagon.
Don’t forget the now (since this week) total of 23 Mig-29’s stationed between Yerevan and Turkey. :O
Will Moscow Kalibr themselves out of it (and use non-nuke strategic missiles) against Turkish and Saudi infrastructure and bases?
The destruction of the KSA!’s would be a rare example of poetic justice.
It would raise the price of oil for its enemies, while effectively destroying much of its own economy.
Precisely what it wanted to do to Syria.
You forget Russian can destroy the Turkish Navy easily enough with their “Yakhonts” & “Sunburn” (the world’s best ASM missiles) anti-ship missiles…..and destroy all Turkish Airfields from a good distance back with their Kalbr cruise missiles or Iskander-M missiles
Obama is behind it all.
This is the perfect scenario for Obama’s “lead from behind” and back-stabbing approach to Foreign policy. If he can get Turkey to invade Syria, and then can get Russia to continue bombing in the “buffer zone”, he can then impose a “no-fly zone” over Syria and get the US and NATO to conduct an air campaign against Syria a la Libya – which has been the goal all along. He can also
deflect blame for the escalation on to Turkey and Russia and further demonize Putin for being an “aggressor”. He also gets to backstab Turkey by getting it involved in a conflict with Russia if Russia decides to engage Turkish forces in Syria.
It’s a win-win for Obama. The problem for Putin is that he gets put between a rock and a hard place. He either backs down from confronting Turkey, NATO and the US and sees his plan to seal the Turkish border and defeat ISIS on the ground fail, or he risks escalating to WWIII over a country that really isn’t worth WWIII in terms of existential Russian interests.
This is why I believe Obama is behind all of this. It fits his personality and his approach to foreign policy – lying and secret deals and secret operations behind the scenes while publicly proclaiming his innocence and letting everyone believe he is “reluctant” to start more war.
Except of course Russia is Under an existential threat…… Its been blindingly obvious for some years now that the western Axis forces intend war against the Allies. Everything has to be viewed in a larger historical context . The anglozionist empire has and is determined , but somewhat incompetant. Clever but arrogant. Everything has to be viewed in the environmental context . The vikings spread south due to climatic changes . The dark ages happend as a result of climatic changes, cold=no crops= starvation and sickness= sociatal collapse? The church blamed the witches , burnt millions and consolidated power. Everything has to have its religious context…..What on earth were the crusades about………… same actors…… Same play….. Different date.
” It’s a win-win for Obama”
Too funny! Obama wouldn’t even recognize a ‘win’ if he stumbled over one… That is how dis-functional he is.
The Ukro-Turk-Wahhabi alliance kind of sounds like Larry Mo and Curly with all the slapstick but with none of the humor.
I do not believe Russia would ever threaten to use nukes against a non-nuclear state. In the event of a small Turkish border incursion, Russia would certainly not use nukes and so would not threaten to do what she knows she never would do. In the unlikely event of a mass Turkish invasion attempting to overrun Hmameim, Russia would not make such a threat because it would not be necessary; that the consequences would be catastrophic (even without nukes) would be crystal clear to the Turkish brass even if Erdogan hasn’t a clue.
That said, the presence of the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean with nuclear capability is no doubt a warning to the rest of NATO of how far Russia will go to protect her self and her friends.
What if Turkey invaded syria in some way that the Rusisnians dont’ like, and the Russians just decided to cut to the chase bytaking our Erdogan? Wouldn’t that be simpler than the nuclear option?
Just wondering . . . All’s fair in love and war . . .
“From a purely military point of view, it makes absolutely no sense for the Turks to mass at the border, declare that they are about to invade, then stop, do some shelling and then only send a few little units across the border. What the Turks should have done was to covertly begin to increase the level of readiness of their forces then and then attacked as soon as Russians detected their preparations even if that meant that they would have to initiate combat operations before being fully mobilized and ready. The advantages of a surprise attack are so big that almost every other consideration has to be put aside in order to achieve it. The Turks did the exact opposite: they advertised their intentions to invade and once their forces were ready, they simply stopped at the border and began issuing completely contradictory declarations. This makes absolutely no sense at all.”
This is very similar to the strategy the ukronazis used against Novorussia much of 2015, after their major defeats at the hands of the Novorussians. It’s psywar tactics, not an actual invasion strategy. They are trying to unnerve and demoralise their victim.
The similarity between ukro and turktactics tells me these are orchestrated by the same strategists and that the turks are being used as pawns just as much as the ukronazis are. This is a zionazi (israel uses it repeatedly)-neocon strategy.
Agree there is no way the Russians would initiate nuke use in Syria. I’m also not convinced Parry is on our side, from reading some of his past material on international events and affairs, something of a 2nd generation version of the Woodward/Bernstein act. So this controversy emanating from him strikes me as deliberate disinfo.
It is a bad strategy.. Why it took this long for the SAA to get moving. That was because Russia was stockpiling ammo and training SAA to become effective soldiers. They now have some SAA units that’s trained to deal with military doctrines when Turkey invades. Which is very different than dealing with terrorists.. I am very surprised even experienced reporters who watch training and such, think a military tactic is a military tactic.. Dealing with AQ and IS is mostly learning to deal with IED’s and infiltration and getting shot in the back, VBIED’s and suicide attacks. If we saw WW2 and Vietnam war movies etc we see how soldiers come under fire and they run inside buildings or dive into a ditch etc.. With AQ and IS, such tactics mean 100% of you die. When Iran trained special units to deal with AQ, those units are not trained to fight a defensive or offensive military situation, these people know how to fight inside cities, besides civilians to run after terrorists.. Like Hezbollah.. You try any of those real military tactics with these guys and you end up dead and why the SAA lost so badly.
What Turkey did was take away SAA troops that were supposed to train for counter terrorism operations and bring in Iranian specialty troops instead.. So now you not only have Iranian and Iraqi militia, you have IRGC quids forces. So these SAA soldiers are trained as commandos to deal with a Turkish incursion using artillery and heavy fire power and CAS.. It also put like 30 MIG 29’s into Armenia.. Those would be able to bush wack any F15’s leaving to provide CAS to Turkish troops in Syria and take them out on their way back. Only reason I can see them being moved there rather than SU30’s.. Even Su35’s are not as capable as MIG29’s for such roles. And that was also the first thing Russia did in Syria and that was to upgrade the Syrian MIG29’s.. And maybe even get 4 more Russian MIG29’s.. These planes are the only ones designed to catch and destroy the US Lockheed SR-71 Blackbird spy plane I think because they have tried and tested battle field plans to interdict enemy fighters like F22’s.
Did anyone notice China dispatched their fighters to intercept F22’s in the south china sea? A warning perhaps[s..
Any MiG-29 is inferior to modern Su fighters (Su-27SMx, Su-30, SU-35) in any mode, except maybe dogfight. This was proven in Eritrean-Ethiopian war. Several MiG-29 were shot down by Su-27 with no losses …
That is why they were upgraded, there are no other fighters that’s better at interception, none. Both the Syrian and the 30 at the Armenian base are the new upgraded ones. Even Israel shot down 2 of the old ones I think. SU30’s are deep penetration bombers, SU35’s are interceptors, they all look similar but performance envelopes are different. All new fighters can bomb or intercept.. But they have differences in avoiding A2A missiles and turning radius and such things also the SU’s are much bigger and slower than the mig’s but the migs are designed to work with awacs and S300’s, basically they are rocket launchers.
I am not sure to what extent/level SyAF MiG-29s have been upgraded. Maybe you have more info, but I would bet that majority of “old” batch is not upgraded to the most recent standard. We agree that we disagree about Su and MiG capabilities. Even Su-30 is better than any MiG-29 for interception … Your claim is same as saying F-16/F-18 is better interceptor than F-15.
Logically, what point is it in upgrading it and delivering it during 2015 (?) to any older standard?
Logically, since Syria is short on money and cannot buy new aircraft they will at least make sure that those few upgraded are worth the cough, no?
Mig-31 are the fastest Interceptors in the world…..a good deal better than any Mig-29
Vot Tak–Parry is possibly one of those media gatekeepers on the supposed left. That article was republished at CommonDreams where one of the fiercer commenters there, Siouxrose1, tried to unmask his intentions, http://commons.commondreams.org/t/fearing-sanders-as-closet-realist/18739/10 Numerous readers agree with her.
Lavrov accuses Turkey of ’provocative actions’ in Syria in phone call with Kerry
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry have discussed in a phone call how to implement a ceasefire that would exclude “operations to fight terrorist groups”, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Saturday.
A Russian Foreign Ministry statement Saturday said the two “pointed to the progress made in humanitarian aid deliveries to the blocked areas on Syrian territory.”
Saker – thank you for another masterpiece! Question for you – How does China fit into a doomsday narrative ?
Everbody seems to be on today’s favorite drug – fear porn! Gives that always welcome adrenaline rush!
Poorly, they have nukes and are the threat of US and the TTIP countries so it will be nuked.
Defencively it will again do poorly because as with any antithesis to NATO/Commonwealth/GCC/Japan/S.Korea/Taiwan (and many more) countries they have poor cooperation. NATO et al have worked on symetry for decades while ALL antithesis are comparatively more (China) or less (CSTO) on their own.
NATO is the way it’s done! Everything else is just another way of doing it.
Beijing (and Moscow et al) must take WWIII seriously; pause all disputes with N.Korea etc., create a structure that mirrors NATOs and become 1.
It’s never about what they say; it’s about what they’re planning.
The United States has insisted that it continues to view the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) as an effective partner against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria despite Turkish protests that it is a terrorist group that should be treated as such.
“Our assessment, our policy towards the YPG and the [allied Democratic Union Party] PYD has not changed. And our policy towards the PKK has not changed. We view the [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] PKK as a foreign terrorist organization. We view the YPG differently, and we’ve talked about this many times. That has not changed,”
There seems to have been several different scenarios over the last few weeks.
The first was the possibility of a surprise attack by NATO.
Second scenario was a surprise attack by Turkey/KSA with possible NATO backing.
Now it is the remote possibility of an incursion into Syria by Turkey without NATO backing and that Russia has advance warning of.
” in a way which would threaten her very existence as a state”
At what point is Russia’s existence as a state threatened? Is it when the last of Russia’s allies are on the verge of being destroyed, or is it when Russia itself is physically attacked by the likes of NATO, or is it when it has been attacked and a large proportion of its territory has been occupied by enemy forces?
Thats the point isn’t it? How do you interpret the statement in the doctrine. I suspect Russia would use nuclear weapons long before her “existence as a state” was “threatened”.
Then there is also the loop hole regarding “other weapons of mass destruction” use against Russia or her allies.
If the Black Sea Fleet and the forces of the Southern Military district were faced with destruction by forces whose ultimate aim was the destruction of Russia itself, would that constitute a threat to Russia’s very existence as a state?
I think the phrasing attempts to keep adversaries guessing by maintaining required leeway, ultimately it is a matter at the military leadership’s discretion which reality allows for at any given point in time. The criteria highlights that there are and which are the restraints but their gauging and thresholds will be evaluated dynamically. Outside observers are left to measuring actions and not words, the level of surprise is kept up to the precedents and to how much there is willingness to set a new one. The employment of nuclear weapons as a decision of the President of RF, by singling out, suggests in my speculation, a veto power rather than a bypass of eventual assessments disallowing such use (as a pressure management measure on one side and a security on the other one).
The precedent is that the decision process is guided by clear assessment of material reality for any given action or reaction. Surprises, instead of escalation, have come in the form of reaching up to scale. We won’t get the chance to be shocked twice about this, I can only guess, it will be absolute and final if we get there.
I agree with Saker, the turkish leadership as shown not being serious yet about this escalation. It would consist of a qualitative change of the conflict, namely, the upgrade from covert to overt, proxied to direct between two nations, specifically Turkey and Syria, without supporting legal basis real or imagined and at the clear initiative of Turkey. Such recklessness can be too costly domestically and internationally. It is Turkey that gets the hook in the stomach and gets its digestive tract stuck with its own boat, too easy a prey for Syria’s response allowing Russia to keep in the sidelines in its supportive role, making hardly defensible closing the straits as retaliation.
Saker mentioned some unease in Turkey’s military, I’ve read suggestions about dissent in erdohan’s party too, what I do wonder about is what is the pulse of the Turkish people with respect to latest developments, it is rarely mentioned what they’re thinking about erdohan’s foreign encouraged lunacy…
Erdogan is constitutionally ( no pun) unable to back down and so this dismal scene continues play out. And one cannot help but wonder, as many do, what will Israel do? see the link below/
This century can very well host technologically advanced, face paced wars coordinated on several fronts simultaneously so that one does not have to have tank battalions poised in Poland ready to invade Russia for Russia to be directly threatened militarily. Having one NATO country about to attack your forces directly as others line up weapons of mass destruction on your borders is close enough to fit the legal language in the Russian constitution as matched to 21st century realities on the ground .
These are new paradigm birth times we live in. It is hopeful that there are intelligent, steady hands at the helm in Russia. Over kill and disproportionate force are angloZionist fall back options even though they like to brag about so-called “surgical strikes”.
Another great conversation on CPR Sunday between Eric Draitser, Mark Sleboda, and Don DeBar. These weekly shows are always a great listen.
Syria: Turkish-Saudi Plans, War Update; Lebanon’s Muslim Brotherhood; Target Ecuador?; ASEAN Summit
Eric Draitser of StopImperialism.org appears on CPR Sunday with security analyst Mark Sleboda, and broadcaster Don DeBar to discuss the latest global developments. This extra long episode opens with discussion of the latest developments in Syria, including the bluff and bluster from Turkey and Saudi Arabia, and the broader agenda. Other topics include: the resurgence of Lebanon’s Muslim Brotherhood, the politics of the Catholic and Orthodox Church reconciliation in Cuba, the ongoing destabilization of the Correa Government in Ecuador, and the geopolitics of the ASEAN Summit. Enjoy this wide-ranging two-part episode.
Battle over the Aegean: The Undeclared Greco-Turkish Air War.
On February 15, six Turkish fighter jets and a Navy transport plane violated Greek airspace over island territories in the eastern Aegean Sea nearly two dozen times. Commenting on the latest violation, Russian military analyst Alexei Kupriyanov decided to take a look back at the recent history of the decades-long conflict between Athens and Ankara.
Good article and it does make one wonder about the stand Athens will take in the comming (for Ankara obvioulsy won’t quit) conflict with Moscow.
Ankara is trying to lure NATO to involve troops in Syria, of couse, so to be able to occupy Syrian (and Iraqi) oil regions without having to face Moscow while only being backed by S.Arabia/GCC.
Now where will Athens stand?
“Neutral” surely, in a sense, but will they allow NATO use Hellenic airspace?
Ankara’s violations and claims have never siezed, they’ve always been expansionist, for hundreds of years.
Ankara will (probably) not involve its 1st army in a Syrian invasion and war with Russia because of Athens might go pro-active for once?
* Not pro-active, I meant liberate occupied Cyprus and Imia, of course.
Kerry, Lavrov Say ‘Cessation of Hostilities’ in Syria Not Fully Agreed
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160220/1035108529/us-russia-syria-state-dept.html#ixzz40jeqyb1T
The Syrian conflict has the potential to last longer than the average civil war does, around five to seven years, Daniel Wagner of Country Risk Solutions believes.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160220/1035107777/syria-conflict-settlement-after-obama.html#ixzz40jf4avrZ
And news from banderastan:
Poroshenko, Biden Coordinate How to ‘Further Exert Pressure on Russia’
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160220/1035092729/poroshenko-biden-russia-deal.html#ixzz40jfwBDVh
There is word about a third Maidan. The Right Sector has come with arms to Kiev. Some buildings have been occcupied. I hope some Russianspeakers can give us reliable information.
They plan a rally this sunday and expect between 10 and 100.000 people to show up.
10.000 maybe or let’s say 20.000 but I don’t see 100.000 coming to this show.
It may also be a fake maidan organised by…guess who?
On Zionist occupied territory – and Ukraine is such now – there are NO maidans. Unless, of course, they are orchestrated by the Parasites themselves to accelerate the death spiral of a given nation.
developments over the weekend……..thing that I noticed is new Maidan want to cancel Minsk-that could be interesting, what happens then, digging themselves deeper into the pit(horror story Pit and the pendulum by Edgar Allen Poe seems apposite……)
ukr not given up yet re Minsk???
“musicians” suspected to arrive to play at the new “concert”?expect some jumping up and down?
I suspect Tymoshenko behind a lot of stuff, Yats not resign according to her wishes despite his achieved list is mostly fiction, her party withdrew from coalition, Tymo wants emergency recall of RADa etc etc….perhaps she is jealous of his financial gains she wants some of the action too………
“The SBU seized the servers of the Channel 17 and tried to detain the crew of “Channel 17”, accusing them of stirring the situation in favor of Russia.Video link to this.
My mrs spent most of Sunday pm watching the webcam from Kiev……………………….
“We were aggressively grabbed from behind and thrown in a car. It is surprising that Bodya Kutepov from Gromadske TV just watched everything and did not even try to call the police, and I asked him,” said journalist Andrew Pawlowski, who was broadcasting from the 3rd Maidan.
As a reminder, activists of nationalist organizations gathered on independence square in Kiev to honor the memory of the coup two years ago.
“Today we remain on the Maidan, we put up tents and barricades! We are continuing our Revolution of Dignity and will bring it to the end!” — Igor Gromov, one of the activists, wrote on his page on Facebook.
Others who gathered encouraged others on their pages on social networks to carry firewood, food and money.”
long article Maidan then and now?
re about preparations for Maidan 3 , what is it about
students payed to go to create a Maidan in Nevyansk in Russia?
goodbye IMF………..we’ll call you……………..
wow looks like the backstabbing pasha gangster wacked a few Turks..
Ankara bomb contained NATO explosive RDX, large support team backed up bomber, who entered-exited TR many times. NATO mil explosive 4 Bomb had sophist fail-safe timer Stolen car w fake plates drove 1000s of km for 2 mths in & out of mil restrict zone..
Killed NCO’s and civilians..
PKK makes their own TNT.. cant cross check points setup all over turkey to prevent movements but this guy went in and out for months without any problems or the car he drive did..
“Russia’s envoy: Prisoner exchange issue in Donbass can only be resolved by law on amnesty”:
It would be desirable that Comrade Borís Vyacheslávovich Gryzlov also could ask for the prisoners from the Pritzrak Brigade, because, as we have known here from informed sources, there is a clear determination between members of Ukronazi battalions, Aidar and Azov, of no taking prisoners belonging to this brigade.
As it seems, the custom is to shoot them in the stomach, burying them in a hole, and, moreover, ask for ransom from their relatives.
Nevertheless, we have learned that our comrades in the Pritzrak Brigade continue in the gap, fighting for their freedom while continuing to help the civilian population, despite the scarcity of resources, faithfully following the project begun by dear Comrade Alekseyi Mozgovoy, which remains forever in our hearts and memory.
Hopefully they are returning the “favor” to any surrendering fascists. The policy of “do on to others” is always the right one in cases like that. Only the fear of similar treatment will bring an end to those killings. It has been that way for thousands of years. And it is today.
Novorossian forces (at least Prizrak) makes distinction between prisoners from Ukrainian regular army and Nazi volunteer batallions (Azov, Aidar…). The earlies go to echange. The latter to rpison.
But torture is not general in that brigade. I won’t say that never occurred (probably isolated casees are on), but is not systematic.
from my military guru concerning Saker’s analysis:
“Its pretty good in general, but totally wrong on the use of nuclear weapons. What he wrote applies to strategic nukes, not tactical nukes. As a former military analyst, he should know that Russian military doctrine calls for early use of tactical nukes in a conflict with NATO.”
I am sure many are confused about the difference between strategic nukes and tactical nukes. ? Maybe Saker could elucidate.
Rename the Simferopol International Airport, in Crimea, as: Oleg Peshkov International Airport.
A really good idea.
But also have the images of Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt etched into the airport toilet urinals….
Just as USA some months ago were inferring that Rus forces were not good enough or would suffer…I wonder of Turkey is thinking lets do something to distract Rus or divert it or split up its forces to just see how strong it is, degrade it, to see if it can then continue against Daesh, maybe “we Tukey Nato USA etc” can assist them to regain their losses, to turn the tide back against the Kurds= an unholy alliance against Kurds and Rus and Syrians,look at what a mess now Rus has got into, which is what the west has been trying to prove these last months,even kind of prophesing this, to give time for their own version of peacetalks or at least under their control, to humiliate Lavrov, Putin, to try and prove that Rus should never ever act outside its borders.
What about Turkey being set up as a sacrificial pawn, i.e. another proxy warrior used by the A.I. empire to further its goals, and attacks on multiple fronts against Russia: Syria, Ukraine, etc.
However, SouthFront made a good point here:
‘From the perspective of the survival of Turkish state (and his own political survival), Erdogan cannot be made to look like he was defeated by the Kurds and their international supporters which are now mainly Russia, but also the US who stood by Kurdish forces in spite of Erdogan’s blackmail. Naturally, the details would still have to be worked out, but turning over the area between the Kurdish enclaves to some “moderate opposition” faction (which might actually be, at this point, a faction that re-joined Assad’s forces in recent months) would allow Erdogan to pull out of Turkey in a face-saving manner. Given the all-round rejection of his plans for no-fly zones, security zones, NATO ground operations, etc., and the unpredictable consequences of a military clash with Russia, he has little else to hope for.’
That is a well thought analysis by SouthFront, but as always with them, it is worldly and does not include the spiritual End Game that Ankara, D.C. and all other Kabbalist or otherwise Talmudic run capitols play for.
This analysis by William Engdahl is also worldly but he includes team play and deception into it – both pillars in warfare:
One thing is unquestionable, for the Anglo-zionists to dominate the world for so long they must play a waaaay more subtle game than SouthFront can explain and factor in to the above.
They’re conducting techno-spiritual warfare on humanity and eventual material gains function primarily but not exclusively as deception.
Actually a Ukrainian-Turkish-Saudi (the last a joke) alliance might be a very good thing to see. That way when (if?) the Turks and Russia do start fighting. Ukraine will, as the Turks ally, be a legitimate military target. And the fascists can “finally” be destroyed and Ukraine freed of them. That also might convince the Russian people that leaving a fascist Ukraine is the threat to their security that a third of Russians already understand.If the Ukrainian attacks on their fellow Russian and pro-Russian supporters in Ukraine hasn’t done that yet. I don’t really see what else will. But still that might.
On a related note. The US bombing killed 2 Serbian Embassy personnel from their Embassy in Libya. They were kidnap victims that the Serbians were trying to ransom. When the illegal US bombing raid killed them. I wonder how that news will affect the Serbian government’s wanting to join NATO.
It’ll probably prompt them to demand a bigger bribe.
Great post and general summary.
Nuclear weapons used by Russia would provide the media blitz to the MSM to cover a massive military escalation in terms of propositioning supplies, placing NATO on high alert, and any other hype needed by the US cabal.
There’s no pragmatic need by Russia to use weapons except the Russian decided to send a firm signal that going forward all escalation by the west are actual threats to the state and stability of the Russian Federation. I don’t see that just yet, as the primary threat to Russia is socio-economic with the military threat, as far as I can tell, just a means to direct Russian finances to military costs and not their society – amplifying the effect of sanctions.
Russia can trounce Turkey in a full blown war. In my opinion the US is aware of this and will simply use the Turkey-Russian stand off as a sub-major escalation, keeping the conflict hot but not truly a war. Thus, arms shipments to Turkey (a mechanism of petrodollar recycling with direct manufacturing bonuses to the defense industry of the US (we may sell morr of my birds to her)) will expand.
Keep in mind: the economic cost of this drawn out escalation are minor for Russia as admitted by the Pentagon. That’s the key to this I think: what sort of next steps will further drain Russian finances and further dilute their military projection: a small escalation shrouded in jingoistic over exaggeration. The. Ukraine can push for crimea and the US can further escalate the South China Sea. The US is playing chess, moving her pieces one space closer to check mate, while Russia and China must expend large resources.
The US/NATO will not dare to attack Crimea(otherwise they are real crazies)because Russia plays at home there.
And it would be the perfect pretext for Russia for this time liberate Mariupol if not Odessa and a few others pro russian regions.
Saying look,they came and attack Crimea we need to protect us.Ukaine will maybe be ‘dead’ before as the economic situation(already catastrophic)will be even worse.
The ‘popularity’ of the Junta is reaching never seen levels below a single digit nr.
You can’t not keep forever(even a Junta)in power with such low levels of popularity.And this Ukie adventure is now starting to cost a lot of money to both EU/US…the EU having much more urgent problems to treat like the refugees crisis which will soon get even worse with the summer coming.
This is actually a very hopeful message from Dr. Cohen:
OMG, if it’s true as Dr. Cohen states that there’s a media black-out on the possibility of Moscow using tactical nukes if attacked in Syria, then………..then it is exactly what the Western elites want.
This deviates from usual MSM behaviour (and they don’t stop at exaggerations and clear lies otherwise)!
The modern Turkish military is much more similar to the Israeli military in 2006 – it has a great deal of experience terrorizing civilians and it is not a force trained to fight “real” wars.
Yup. The IDF mostly terrorizes Palestinians, while the Turkish Army specializes in terrorizing Kurds.
Tosh. IDF is primarily a self defense force. After all when you are surrounded by people who want to wipe you from the face of the earth it sort of makes sense. I don’t think Turkey has those problems. On the contrary, they seem to be the aggressor historically
IDF is primarily a force for terrorizing defenseless civilians, in addition to being a force of getting their asses kicked by any willing to resist and have any fighting capabilities – then they crap themselves and start killing civilians again. Very reflective of their highly pathological society overall – with no future, and nowhere to go but down.
Not Jewish then ?
No, Erdogan is not a lunatic. Evil he most certainly is, lunatic he is not. He has the skills to extract large money from the EU governments, he has the skills to still keep Nato support behind him as the last resort. Nor is the US government composed of lunatics or stupid people. You don’t build a world empire if you are stupid. The only fools (at par with village idiots) and lunatics (at par with residents of institutions) I see on the world stage are Angela Merkel, Hollande, and the other EU leaders. No, they are not spineless, and they don’t have to be vassals. They are vassals by choice and stupidity. It is their stupidity and evil bent (especially Merkel’s) that enabled the Ukraine crisis to grow to the size it did, it is Merkel who continues to speak with a forked tongue on Syria (perhaps outdoing the congenital liar Obama) in attempts to fool Russia, it is she who enabled the refugee trap that had been set by the empire, and it is the EU leadership that will be the ultimate enablers of the next big war by lacking the brains to say “No”.
Russian weakness in diplomacy is tbe cause of aggravatipn agaibst russia and syria in syrian war.
When russia has been guven permission to be in syria then by what right or morality did rusdia not only did not ask us and anglos mercenaries to leave syria but also invited to coordinate against west created ISIS .
Secondly you dont talk of negotiatipn or ceasefire when you are winning but has not won yet-that is exactly what lavrov traitor did.
Thridly why rusdia went out f way to tell turkey that no the russians are not gping to open another airbase in syria ? Why tell that and why not have another base to have anorher battery of s400 ?
Btw rusdia still has not delivwred s300 to iran – such a letharfic respobse in middke of war .
Rusdia has betrayed her allies too many times.
I agree with most of your points but you have to replace your keyboard ASAP.
Well, in the end not that much complicated:
Turkey (either with or w/o Erdogan) will be Germany of 21st century:
1. Destruction of turkish economical and poltical base (if there is any) and, most important, isolating including “divide et impera”.
[Analogon in 20th century: other than Turkey as of now Germany then has been the most powerful economy of the world. More powerful than the US! Thus for destruction of Germany WW1 has been needed (initial phase of point 1.) and then destruction begun (Treaty of Versaille). “divide et impera” then has been the re-instantiating of something nowadays called Poland, then already dead for more than 120 years (1794-1919).]
For Turkey as of now “divide et impera” will be – Kurdistan in eastern Anatolia, not in Syria, not in Irak and, of course, not in Iran. For implementation this time only a little war is needed after which for saftey reasons, eastern Anatolia will be cut off from Turkey [the same way like the provinces Western Prussia and Posen and parts of the then most industrialized region of Germany, Silesia, in 1919. But again, turkish economy already is dead and thus no need for special operations like in Germany then.]
If Turkey wants to keep eastern Anatolia they must avoid war for any price – that’s why turkish military doesn’t want to invade Syria.
2. After Kurdistan will have been established in eastern Anatolia, there will be a really ugly guy urgently wanting to liberate all tirkosh people in the world, mainly in nowadays Russia (Crimea!) and former Sowjet Union. [That’s what has been called Lebensraum im Osten in bewteen 1933 – 45.]
This looked up guy really must hate Russia – any idea? [I’m pretty sure his name will be – Hitler, of course!] And who in (isolated and economically destructed Turkey) should not hate Russia when eastern Anatolia has been cut off from Turkey?
3. You will know phase 3 has started when out of sudden 1000s of turkish guys will be running over the Black Sea to liberate what always has been part of the turkish world. At least they will believe in being able to walk over water – after what happend in phase 1 and 2.
This time (phase 3, 21 century) there is no need for another genocide because Turkey already solved this task in 1915 – remember France’s new law regarding turkish genocide of armenian people?
The only point of interesst here is: turkish hate of Russia for ever!
Remember “Dinner for one”?
The answer is: “The same procedure as last century[, uups,] year!”
Brilliant, exact, as always written. Many thanks.
Find especially interesting that Erdogan is now firmly here named insane. Many recent photos look it in an extraordinary fashion. One would assume his military leaders would, could, refuse to follow him as dangerous for all his troops and the populations to trust. That the US, his protector is silent on this is equally loaded as if an insane US NATO Member is just what Washington wants and needs. Neither Hussein nor Qaddafi were insane though US propaganda shouted they were. Getting one who is (and may have been carefully pushed to actually be one) means silence is noteworthy. US military use of the best shrinks the Pentagon can hire has been rife since 9/11 removed all Constitutional Law. Before Angela turned into an US side kick in the Rose Garden, she was targeted in extraordinary fashion for years.
I agree with what this gentleman said about Turkey being set up by the globalists to become the Muslim Nazi Germany. If you follow the logic, this isn’t it as far as the huge war with Russia prophesied by Elder Paisios, what we’re seeing instead is 21st century Turkey’s ‘WW1′ where the neo-Ottomans will lose only to mysteriously get large sums of money, and take advantage of very real Turkish rage over the creation of a Kurdistan from parts of Syria and Iraq if not Anatolia that will then be used by a successor to Erdogan who’s even more explicitly about the Caliphate to exploit the mistreatment of Muslims in Europe (now being settled there as part of the pre-planned immi-destabilization) at the hands of Euro-nationalists, particularly in Germany, France and the Balkans. Serbia will again be the subject of globalist-funded Islamic radicalists’ wrath. Hopefully there are individuals like Sheikh Hosein far sighted enough to see this and put out the warning via the Saker and other forums, that the true purpose of bringing so many Muslims into Europe all at once is to set the stage for a huge Muslim-‘Christendom’ war that can be directed against Russia and used to destroy Europe AND Turkey to set up the U.S. and China as the last men standing.
I came to think of something.
Can a prophecy be true within the context of Free Will, or only within the context of Determinism (fate)?
Read this excellent article,and you will indirectly understand that the big war has been decided,it is too late,no other option remaining.
Just the date remains unknowned,for the places with have an idea..or two?
The New Global Financial Cold War
by Michael Hudson
Russia’s Central Bank Is Prolonging the Recession(on purpose,fith column)
The Central Bank’s mistaken interest rate policy is not supporting the rouble, reducing inflation or increasing savings; it’s simply prolonging the recession
George Soros Calls on EU to Bankrupt Itself in Order to Destroy Itself
The evil of George Soros simply has no limits
The article by Michael Hudson is excellent indeed. I think he confused something at the end, though:
» That led the head of the European section of the IMF to resign. She went to Canada, I think, and the Canadians published her whistle-blowing there. It destroyed the IMF’s credibility even before the Ukrainian crisis. «
The last three directors of the European sections were Marek Belka, Antonio Borges and Reza Moghadam. All of them male. None of them a whistleblower.
This all is in line with the Kabbalist and Talmudist elites wanting to fulfill the Biblical End Times of the Book of Revelation and its Koranic equivalent.
BTW, Revelation was planted in the Bible around 500A.D. and is thus what a prosecutor would call “confirmed intent”.
For a prosecutor to have a case a framework of four criteria have to be met:
4) Confirmed intent
The Kabalist/Talmudist elites fill all these criteria.
I think this is a Russian bunker buster.. did not explode so you can see it. Why they would drop it in a village without any bunkers?
A map showing the areas that ISIS seized from the Assad forces over the past few days. DeirEzzor24
Those executed by ISIS in the town of al Bughyaliya yesterday were only Assad forces along with the National Defense militiamen (NDF), after the group had captured them in the town,
Perhaps this is one of the fuel-air bombs e.g. ODAB-500PM that the Syrian air force also has? The shape of the tail section doesn’t fit the bunker buster -the parachute used to ensure the bomb is vertical before the rockets fire. The ODAB also has a parachute -presumably to allow low level escape of the arcraft before the bomb detonates. Either way the chute didn’t get blown off and the bomb didn’t detonate. I would stand there.
@The US and France apparently think that the UN Charter (which affirms the sovereignty of all countries) does not apply to Syria….somebody is trying hard to set Turkey on a collision course with Russia…Does that remind you of somebody else? Go figure!
The Elephant in the room with his fingers in many pies! Including in a “Ukrainian-Turkish-Saudi alliance”!
Now let’s figure what could happen if the Ukros ally themselves openly with the terrorists. It might be then that their dreams to be invaded by Russia might come true.
One of the US’ favorite games is pretending to hold back forces that it is in fact supporting, if not actually egging on. Erdogan plays bad cop, Obama plays good cop. That’s Obama’s MO in general. Poor guy. He’s holding back the neocons, holding back Netanyahu, now holding back Erdogan – looks like theater to me. The overall plot seems to be a slow, grinding march towards a wider war or submission by Russia and China and Iran and any other independent countries.
Here’s a very relevant and perhaps not obvious piece by Gilbert Doctorow about the EU concessions to US vassal Cameron:
(lending credence to his conclusion, both Tusk and Juncker are russophobes)
UK’s ‘Special Status’ Deal With EU Means Russia Will Remain the Enemy
“I will call attention here to two small but revelatory signs of what, and ultimately who drove the otherwise puzzling consensus on concessions to Britain that mortgage Europe’s future.”
Excerpts about President of Lithuania card-carrying russophobe Dalia Grybauskaitė:
“In June 2014, Grybauskaitė told German news magazine Focus: “[Putin] uses nationality as a pretext to conquer territory with military means. That’s exactly what Stalin and Hitler did.” She also said Russia and Putin were “characterised by aggressiveness, violence, and a willingness to overstep boundaries.”
On 20 November 2014, Grybauskaite called the Russian Federation (quote) “…a terrorist nation that should be stopped…”. This has been supported by the parliament and Lithuanian media, including being generally accepted as Lithuanian national opinion.”
Brexit:secret annex to anti brexit agreement of yesterday.It would force the EU to vote the TAFTA(no matter they like it or not)and they can not lift the sanctions against Russia and any potential other action which would be taken by the UK versus Russia for an unlimited period of time.Thanks to Dalia Grybauskaitė(Lithuania president,former USSR communist party now cia asset) who talked a bit too much and too loud yesterday night to some insiders…
Probe Confirms CIA Operated Secret “Black Site” Prisons in Lithuania
Please just put an excerpt of the article not the whole article as it is not only off-topic but is taking up a lot of the comments. The link is there and your post has been shortened. Please use the Moveable Feast Cafe in future – which is there for off topic discussions. Mod TR.
Shown here #5 on list of 10. Likely alot more than 10.
Creepy. 10 Secret CIA Prisons You Do Not Want To Visit
Tim Bissell February 10, 2016
The US Central Intelligence Agency has, according to multiple investigative reports from both mainstream media outlets and human rights organizations, operated numerous “black sites” across the world. These locations, according to the reports, are secret prisons used to house “ghost prisoners.” Those sent to these places are held captive without being charged with any crime and are not allowed any form of legal defense.
Ghost prisoners are subject to what the CIA calls “enhanced interrogation tactics”; most others call it torture. The CIA and their operatives’ methods allegedly include waterboarding, sleep deprivation, humiliation, physical beatings, electric shocks, and worse……….
Serbia has signed cooperation agreement with NATO, can now be used at wish: https://www.rt.com/news/333142-serbia-nato-immunity-protest/
Hi Saker, great article. Yeah, that’s a funny one….Turnkey – Ukron – Saudlick – and Lizrael…..
Welcome back Ann!
I assume you got the job :) , so congrats too.
Check the additional commentary from VT Military Editor, retired Colonel Jim Hanke, from this link: http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/02/20/southfront-russian-military-grouping-in-syria/.
Turkey is the South-Eastern spearhead of the anti-Russian NATO alliance. In this Global Hybrid War, Turkey is the pivotal platform out of which the NATO-GCC takeover of both Syria and Iraq would be effected.
Since the surprise Russian Intervention in Syria of Sep 30 2015, NATO-GCC have been facing the very real possibility of defeat in this War.
While Iran, the SAA, Hezbollah and Iraqi Shias have played a crucial role in the ongoing Global Hybrid War, the only reason why the monstrous NATO-GCC alliance is facing the possibility of defeat, is Russia and her defiant stance.
For this reason, NATO-GCC obviously needs to defeat Russia. This being the Hybrid War that it is, the NATO-GCC Empire has utilized multiple “weapons” against the Russian Federation. Those include an unprecedented Black Propaganda campaign, economic sanctions and economic sabotage, the temporary (but ongoing) pressurizing of the oil price and last but not least, the Euromaidan coup/movement in Ukraine.
As formidable as the above “weapons” are, they not only have failed to defeat Russia, but Russia even managed to muster the strength to launch a counter-attack against proxy NATO-GCC forces in the main theater of the Global Hybrid War, namely Syria.
With NATO-GCC proxies in Syria (also in Iraq) firmly on the back foot due to Russian Air Power and weaponry distributed to the heroic local allies, NATO needs a new and considerable force of both men and materiel in order to throw against Russia. The sanctions/propaganda/false flags/oil price/Euromaidan/ISIS/AQ have clearly not been enough to break Russia, on the contrary, Russia managed to turn the tables against the NATO-GCC monstrosity.
The question then is, what is this considerable force of men and equipment that NATO-GCC can throw against Russia? You guessed it, it’s Turkey. Turkey is both big and powerful enough to cause serious trouble for Russia, but it is also at the right geographical location. Moreover, Turkey’s ruling regime, is neck-deep in the Syraq bloodbath already. The very survival of the Turkish regime depends on the victorious conclusion of the Syrian campaign. For this reason, Turkey is the only possible candidate for NATO to deploy against Russia.
But there is one more thing. Erdoan and his minions fully well realize the situation and the cynicism via which America, Europe and the GCC are willing to use them by, so as to achieve their own goals. They also realize that their options are limited. But NATO needs something more for it to be able to blackmail/bait Turkey into taking the absolute hit for the team.
Enter the Kurds. If the Kurds in the region ever become remotely powerful, it is game over for the Turkish state in its modern form. This is one of the primary reasons why the West has at least partially backed the Kurds against ISIS etc… The Kurds are mechanism via which Turkey can be blackmailed and/or baited into actions that it otherwise would never have taken, such as for example invading Syria while Russian forces are present.
So, what you show is that humanity is lucky that the Russians exist and recovered as well as they have after the Rothchildean rape of the 90’s?
Taking it from there must be to not let Moscow stand alone, however strong they might seem, but that all possible antithesis to the NWO must unite against the Enemy of humanity?
That’s what I’ve been seeing for long now, the Enemy is allied not fragmentized and one Maradona cannot fight the 11 players of England alone.
“CENSORED BY FACEBOOK: Turkish Flag Now Waving Proudly Next to ISIS Banner in Syria”:
A picture tells a thousand words…
Looks like Turkey staged a mock charge. On the possibility of using nukes. We must remember that neutron nukes only damage electronic equipment. This could be the threat. This would leave Erdogan’s army blind without killing millions of Turks. By first lining up the UN and the then issuing a (leaked?) threat Putin would be hedging his bets against NATO entering the fray. Clever.
HUH?? This is what we get from VT.. Maybe last year the Turks would have ploughed through the desert and reached Jordan.. Through urban areas? The Turks have that kind of firepower? To go through 200km of densely populated urban areas? defended by 400,000 armed militia and soldiers? yea old equipment and such. But did the old col forget those missiles the Syrians have to be shot at those dams in turkey that holds the water to blackmail Syria and Iraq and Lebanon????? Maybe in a few months of fighting they can take most of Syria true.. But that was last year when Syria was lacking parts and short on ammo.. And the Iranians would just sit there with the turks invading another country.. This is exceptional hubris.. They think since they have overwhelming firepower, it can just plough through resistance.. Yet that overwhelming fire power did not win korea, Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan or Somalia, Cuba, Philippines, or any place else without someone else already defeating the enemy first. See the part about mission accomplished.. Signing the peace treaty with Japan and Germany and declaring victory.. even though they never faced an army of more than a million all combined empires the French, English, US, dutch etc.. If they actually show us beating a small country this might work to convince us.. Anyone remember Korshan?? more powerful than GOD itself? more dangerous than satan?
Right now I see no way the Turks would get much past Aleppo. They would get clobbered in the desert. If they try the city, they would really learn about urban combat against IRGC specialists are vastly different than PKK militias….
But 190,000 Russians would defeat the entire Turkish army in a month? in turkey??
Such nonsense.. maybe why I don’t consider them creditable. Turkey is not Georgia. Just because Russia is far more powerful than Turkey don’t mean it would be a cakewalk..
Additional commentary from VT Military Editor, Colonel Jim Hanke, US Army Special Forces (ret)
You may have this a little wrong- the Turks have enough combat power to go thru Syria to the Jordan/Saudi in about two weeks, even with the Russian presence in Syria. without going into why, the thing that is stopping them from doing so is the 190K person exercise in the south of Russia that started a couple weeks ago.
Turkey would not last a month with that force invading from the North. The Turks know that, and all other strategists do, too. Ask the Russians, they will confirm that.
Nukes complicate the issue, but both sides can exist on the nuke battlefield. It’s the rest of the country that may not. The use of small tactical nuclear weapons is possible as they were used in the past. What you put out is good propaganda and will effect the politics near range. JH.
Things are changing too fast, Looks like e.apello pocket is eliminated. The difference being it took more than a month of sustained bombing to move the 5 km to reach the airbase.. almost a month to close this gap and 2 days to eliminate what was left, freeing 2 divisions and a large area.
The Final MAP of Kuwaires Airbase E Aleppo. SAA huge advance against ISIS
The Syrian Army Imposes Control On Kinssaba,The Last Terrorist Stronghold in The Countryside Of Latakia.
Movement after 3 months here…
NEW MAP: Situation in central #Syria. #SAA #ISIS #Raqqa #Aleppo #Homs #Hama #DeirEzzor HD: https://imgur.com/orHlUqb
Russia colonel receiving sword of #Damascus as gratitude for help to #Syria and #SAA
UNKNOWN Marauding warplanes bombed YPG positions…. Canadians?? They have trouble with maps and compasses..
YPG: Warplane struck position with cluster bombs at Tishrin Oil Field E of #Hasakah killing 3 & wounding 2 fighters
Canadians few days ago early last week had said were withdrawing fighters, only keeping reconnaissance-wonder if they have gone home…….
I know the site and Penny!’ s thesis that the PKK and ISIS are one and the same.
It simply proves my point – that there is no unity across the region among the Kurds.
I still stand by my own thesis , including the perception that the Turkish HDP ( the so-called ‘political wing’ of the YPD) has been effectively co-opted via its leader – the ‘Kurdish Obama’ – to pursue US objectives by stealth.
But I also believe the YPD and other political groups representing Kurd interests – particularly the Russian-allied elements – have evolved – or more accurately, are evolving – in the direction of maintaining sovereign integrity, (with the exception perhaps of the Turkish groups.) The ‘Kurdistan’ self-rule experiment in Northern Iraq is nothing but a feudal fiefdom run by clan interests.
The solution in Turkey requires thinking outside of the ‘ethnic’ box in my view: an autonomous Anatolia, keeping the current population intact, but with options for controlled immigration and socio-economic initiatives with Syria and a (sane) Turkish government collaborating to achieve peace and develop the region as an ecological economy.
Thus the spirit of Occalan is maintained, and the disaster of KRG avoided.
That’s also what I’ve observed.
just in Sunday early PM.
US, Russia reach provisional deal on Syria truce, says Kerry
US Secretary of State John Kerry says he and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov have struck a provisional deal on terms of a cessation of hostilities in Syria, indicating that the two sides are still in disagreement on some issues.
“We have reached a provisional agreement in principle on the terms of a cessation of hostilities that could begin in the coming days,” Kerry said Sunday, during a press conference with Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh in the Jordanian capital city of Amman.
Saker ” It sure looks like somebody is trying hard to set Turkey on a collision course with Russia, doesn’t it?”
It looks exactly like that! The US/Israel NATO global tyranny would like nothing better then to see Russia and Turkey at each others throat. I would add that thus far, rhetoric aside, neither Turkey nor Russia has taken the bait. (That could change) It would take all the heat off of the NATO/Israel activities and enable NATO to play their “good guy” card while labeling Russia and Turkey as the problem in the region- You can see signs of that narrative coming through in the msm promotion of the Tsar and Sultan type of meme. Making Erdogan savvy as opposed to the labeling of “lunatic” being bandied about
Probably in relation to the recent explosions in Ankara, Erdogan declared:
“Turkey has right to conduct ops in Syria, elsewhere to protect itself from terrorists”.
So, in view of the recent explosions in Homs and Damascus, Assad is equally legitimated to declare:
“Syria has right to conduct ops in Turkey, elsewhere to protect itself from terrorists”.
1. Syria/Turkey would never be Russia’s 2nd Afghanistan for a number of reasons:
a: – In Afghanistan the then USSR was by itself, in Syria it is part of a trans-global alliance consisting of Russia, China (with their only aircraft carrier off the Syrian coast) and Iran.
Iran itself sees the war in Syria as a war of national survival and Syria now as much part of Iran as Tehran or Mashad in geo-political terms.
b: – Russia enjoys local support as someone mentioned earlier including from Arab non-Muslims e.g. Christians, Druze, Alawites etc as well as a lot of Sunnis too.
c: Unlike Afghanistan where the USSR could not use leverage against Pakistan hosting the anti-Soviet insurgents, Russia does have such a leverage against Turkey in the form of the Turkish Kurds and the Alevis.
d: Militarily Russia is far stronger than the former Soviet Union including the use of drones and even military robots
The Russian intervention in Syria has been so successful that even their partners the Chinese have not felt the need to escalate their support.
2. Turkey is not going to stage an invasion of northern Syria or transfer control of ISIS-held northern Syria to Turkish troops. If they were going to do it they would have done it by now.
a: – Senior Saudi generals wrote to the Saudi crown prince, Ibn Nayef, practically imploring him not to send the Saudi army to Syria and citing the Yemen debacle.
The decision does not lay in the hands of ibn Nayef but with the King, Salman and his son the de facto no.2.
The fact that the Saudi generals bypassed the actual head of state and his de facto deputy, his son could also be a subtle hint to the “king” that the military are not pleased and have deliberately ignored him and *sucked up to* Ibn Nayef, i.e. the army could even support Ibn Nayef if he stages a gentle, discreet palace coup i.e. declare Salman “too sick” to rule and Ibn Nayef taking over as effective ruler or regent.
The Saudis are not going in to Syria and there have been no recent reports of Saudi troop or military movements to southern Turkey in the past few days.
b: – The French and the Americans have clearly said they will not support any Turkish invasion of northern Syria i.e. they are on their own.
3. If Turkey had invaded Syria, would Russia for academic argument used tactical nuclear weapons?
The Russians would have been quite happy for the Turkish military to concentrate as many troops and armour in one single place then unleash major bombing on them.
In warefare ammunition can range all the way from the simple bullet to – on the other hand of the spectrum – an ICBM with a nuclear warhead (ICBM = Intercontinental Ballistic Missile e.g. 10,000km range).
ICBMS are “strategic nuclear weapons” to be used for long range, against cities etc.
Tactical nuclear weapons are: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon
However just below the Hiroshima style atom bombs which can wipe out whole cities and above the bombs which can destroy a building or a neighbourhood are bombs in between which can wipe out small villages, or districts or an entire military barracks.
In 1983 a Shia suicide bomber wiped out 241 US marines in a barracks in Beirut with a relatively simple bomb under 10,000 kilograms of TNT. The Russians have bombs bigger than that if they need to against the Turks.
People can dismiss alleged claims by Parry that a Russian aide to Putin informed him that the Russians warned Erdogan of potential tactical nuclear use, what they cannot dismiss is the recent 9,000 man Russian military exercise in the southern military zone, Russian exercises in Armenia and mobilization of Russian troops on the Armenian border with Turkey.
– Russia has just in the past few days announced $0.2 billion worth of military aid to Armenia.
– Russian politicians have claimed that Turkey should return a large part of eastern Turkey to Armenia.
– Russia has also started criticizing the Turkish role in Cyprus, a country which the Russians send naval ships to.
This is all a systematic Russian campaign of intimidation and harassment of Turkey (itself a big bully), a multi-pronged attack on the Turks and to tell them “we are ready, come to Syria and we *SMASH* you”.
The would be a rare example of poetic justice.
It would raise the price of oil for its enemies, while effectively destroying much of its own economy.
Precisely what it wanted to do to Syria.
I do not think that Erdogan is lunatic or a mad man!? He is a psychopath. If one would understand psychopathy, one would understand the current political situation in the world, as psychopaths frequently make it to the top of the power pyramids in this reality. (There are some books which should be a must read in order to understand this mental disorder, such as: the Mask of Sanity; Cleckley, Withouth Conscience and Snakes in Suites, by Robert Hare, Political Ponerology by A. Lobaczewski, In Sheep’s clothing, by G.K. Simon etc.) By understanding psychopathy, one would understand why the history of this planet is similar to the history of a slaughterhouse, or the saying, “what on this planet passes as rational, sends the shivers down the spine of the rest of the universe”.
Yes psychopathy is a real force. All who aspire to power should be precluded from power. Psychopaths should be identified as babies and given janitorial positions without chance of promotion.
Check out this. Doctors Without Borders openly admit, that they don’t provide GPS coordinates of their so called hospitals to Syria and Russia, which is against Geneva Conventions, but after this they are blaming forces of Syria and Russia for violation of the same rules without any proof !!!
“Which region since the beginning of the destruction in 1991 of the bipolar world was and is the most intense and saturated military conflict, and on the rise of the curve? It – the Middle East. Why is the Middle East? Because the Middle East is a geographical point where converge the north and south, east and west, that is, is the center of the world, the region is very suitable for launching and carrying out a third world war, which can involve almost all countries, but especially those who are headed the same unipolar world, ie, USA.
Also, since 1991 the Middle East are actively preparing for the upcoming “great” event destroying the regional order in small and medium-sized military conflicts and rebellions, the last five years, this process intensified, indicating that the forces unleashed by World War III, took the decision to transfer her preparatory to the start of the stage. What, exactly, we are now witnessing. That is now in the conflict in Syria involved almost all global players, their armies are near or already directly or indirectly involved in the conflict. Already occurred or incidents occur, which, as we have defined in paragraph of the initial stage, forcing the States Parties to demonstrate their military capabilities, already almost completed the formation of two opposing coalitions: zapadnohristiano-Sunni one hand and vostochnohristiano-Shia on the other hand. And most importantly – we see that are all clearly silhouetted situations in which, again as stated above, “one of the parties is faced with a choice of either total loss of its position in the hearth of tension comparable to the destruction of the party, or open and large-scale use of its armed forces. ” Here we are, of course, talking about Turkey and its inability to prevent the return of the troops of al-Assad and his allies control of the border and the north of Syria.
Actually the existence of this situation, says that we are on the border between the initial and main phases of World War III. There is no doubt that all attempts at a peaceful settlement will be broken demarches and provocations of the parties and the very third force, which “steers” the process or project here depends on the terms of reference. When specifically happens to the main phase transition? Assuming that Turkish version remains the primary, then the transition will occur over several weeks, perhaps months.
To learn how the main phase will take place the third world war, whether it take the Russian part, what will be the outline of the final phase, and all of this leads us to what the world will be presented in the next article. Your comments and questions will help to fill it with the necessary additional content.”
video link to map of Syrian hostilites as at 20Feb
summary Syria situation 21 Feb
one glance backwards into humanities (til now…) darkest hours of war reduces me to incomprehending, incredulous, disbelieving numbness – we have neither learned nor awakened –
please sir, where is the moveable feast cafe, i so badly need a restorative…
e. e. cummings (1894 – 1962)
humanity i love you
because you would rather black the boots of
success than enquire whose soul dangles from his
watch-chain which would be embarrassing for both
parties and because you
unflinchingly applaud all
songs containing the words country home and
mother when sung at the old howard
Humanity i love you because
when you’re hard up you pawn your
intelligence to buy a drink and when
you’re flush pride keeps
you from the pawn shop and
because you are continually committing
nuisances but more
especially in your own house
Humanity i love you because you
are perpetually putting the secret of
life in your pants and forgetting
it’s there and sitting down
and because you are
forever making poems in the lap
of death Humanity
i hate you
As you mentioned, Movable Feast Café is for posts like this.
I can’t move a comment from one thread to another, but I didn’t want to leave your post in pending or trash it, so I approved it here — just this time….(KL)
The Turkish foreign minister says a land operation by Saudi Arabia and Turkey in Syria has never been on the agenda.
Mevlut Cavusoglu on Monday dismissed speculation about such an operation as “disinformation and manipulation.”
The minister said: “A land operation of Saudi Arabia and Turkey in Syria has never been on the agenda, and it is not on the agenda.”
Its hard to take war hype seriously. None of the conditions Turkey needs to make war a realistic option are realized. A border buildup and a little shelling doesn’t count.
The Bosphorus Strait remains open to Russian military traffic, and been allowed to expand exponentially unimpeded; its a little late now to close it off.
Saudi Arabia sent some aircraft and troops to Turkey; so what? The Saudi Army is only feared within Saudi Arabia, and the Saudi air force, like Turkey, is composed of conventional air superiority and strike fighters. They have no SEAD capability; drones can’t perform the role.
Only the United States possesses SEAD-capable (Supression of Enemy Air Defenses) fighters, the F-16C/J and EA-18G Growler, and stocks of cruise missiles. These were demostrated in 2013 ‘Red Line’ crisis as insufficient to attack Syria at a time before the Russian intervention.
Saudi and Turkish militaries are imperial auxiliaries without a full spectrum of independent warfighting tools. Air supremacy and multirole engagement only matter after SEAD is accomplished.
No SEAD, no way to defeat Syria-Russian A2AD-lite defenses. If Turkey or Saudi possesses SEAD aircraft on the sly, they are too few in number to be worth bragging about.
A Turkish tank rush into Syria would be deprived of air support and annihilated, and far more easily than the DAESH. The Turks have no comparable combat experience, as their Kurdish helots never had an air force.
Erdogan is a rational actor relative to the region. His present actions are geared to make the U.S. jump and win useful concessions at home and abroad. There is a precedent for Erdogan’s unusual diplomacy; Israel. Doubtless Erdogan wants the same aggressor privliges Israel enjoys at home and abroad.
Netanyahu used similar bombast and posturing trying to force the U.S. to bomb Iran for the last decade, repeatedly threatening to bomb Iran unilaterally. The only credibility for such antics, is to appear a lunatic, willing to do stupid in the face of very long military odds. Netanyahu continued posturing long after presidents Bush Jr., then Obama, called his bluff.
In the meantime, Israel intesified regular bombings of its Palestinian helots in rump Palestine, and the Syrian Arab Army in Syria, with complete impunity. Israeli politics polarized, and extreme zionists won against moderate zionism. The U.S. will not mind if Erdogan establishes a precedent against international law to harass Syria and de-democratize his own country.
Erdogan and Netanyahu both survived serious domestic challenges to their power and not only survived, but consolidated power in favour of nativist constituencies and Anglo Zionism. Tacit and overt American/NATO support is given as needed where agendas are shared.
Erdogan is copying the Israeli playbook exactly, just substitute Syria for Iran, Kurds for Palestinians, and Kemalists for a liberal Israel lobby. The only real difference is that the Israeli Army is in unity with the ruling party while the Turkish Army is ideologically opposed to Erdogan’s AKP. Erdogan would want to fix that.
The Israel didn’t achieve their overt anti-Iranian goals, but won secondary concessions on ‘aid’, that is to say bribes from the U.S., enjoyed some jolly good sport killing Palestinians, so establishing a new standard of impunity to war crimes, and vetted the Israel lobby of weaklings in Israel and abroad, particularly in North America and the United Kingdom.
The last bastion of Turkish secularism, Kemalism, remains the military as mandated by law, despite a purge in 2011 aimed at removing an unproven Turkish version of a ‘Deep State’. Purging opposition inside the military the way he did the civilian government and civil society, Erdogan could then make the Army an AKP-compliant force to dominate all of Turkish society.
Army loyalty and keeping Kemalism down has to be more important to Erdogan than taking out the Kurds; the Kurds will endure as always. The Army may not always remain quiescent.
Western Deep Statist plans for Turkey play the Islamic extremism card again, to destroy a secular Muslim nation from within. Erdogan is an Islamic extremist, but of a Turkish variety, used the same way as the Saudi ilk.
Rational deism-inspired Kemalism, even diluted, took a powerful Muslim nation a long way into modernity, propserity, and proportionate regional influence. Anglo Zionism may be an amoral idiotology, but its adherents can survive, even thrive, as the ‘last man standing’ if everyone else can be made even dumber than itself. And shucks, if there aren’t takers in every frenemy of anglo zionism to regress their country.