This column was originally written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-one-of-the-russian-military-intervention-in-syria/
The speed at which the Russian military operation in Syria was conducted what a big surprise for the US intelligence community (which I can hardly blame as I was just as surprised myself). Make no mistake here, the Russian force in Syria is a small one, at least for the time being, and it does not even remotely resemble what the rumors had predicted, but it is especially the manner in which it is being used which is very original: as a type of “ force multiplier ” for the Syrian military and a likely cover for the Iranian one. This is a very elegant solution in which a small force achieves a disproportionately big result. This is also a rather dangerous strategy, because it leaves the force very vulnerable, but one which, at least so far, Putin very successfully explained to the Russian people.
According to the most recent poll , 66% of Russian support the airstrikes in Syria while 19% oppose them. Considering the risks involved, these are extremely good numbers. Putin’s personal popularity, by the way, is still at a phenomenal 85% (all these figures have an margin of error of 3.4%). Still, these figures indicate to me that the potential for concern and, possibly, disappointment is present. The big advantage that Putin has over any US President is that Russians understand that wars, all wars, have a cost, and they are therefore nowhere as casualty-averse as the people in the USA or Europe. Still, while combat footage taken from UAV is a good start, Putin will have to be able to show something more tangible soon. Hence, probably, the current Syrian army counter-offensive. Still, the current way of triumphalism in Russia makes me nervous.
The reaction in the West, however, has been very negative, especially after the Russian cruise missile attacks (which mark the first time ever that the Russians have used their non-nuclear but strategic forces in a show of force aimed less as Daesh than at the USA).
On October 8th, the US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, declared:
We have not and will not agree to cooperate with Russia so long as they continue to pursue this misguided strategy. We’ve seen increasingly unprofessional behavior from Russian forces. They violated Turkish airspace, which as all of us here made clear earlier this week, and strongly affirmed today here in Brussels, is NATO airspace. They’ve shot cruise missiles from a ship in the Caspian Sea without warning. They’ve come within just a few miles of one of our unmanned aerial vehicles. They have initiated a joint ground offensive with the Syrian regime, shattering the facade that they’re there to fight ISIL.
This will have consequences for Russia itself, which is rightfully fearful of attack upon Russia. And I also expect that in coming days, the Russians will begin to suffer casualties in Syria (Source: http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/622454/press-conference-by-secretary-carter-at-nato-headquarters-brussels-belgium )
On the next day, the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov replied by saying:
Representatives of the Russian Defense Ministry, in their evaluation of the actions of the US military and the various operations they are engaged worldwide, have never sunk down to the level to publicly express the hope for the death of US servicemen or, even less so, of ordinary Americans. Today’s announcement Pentagon chief Ashton Carter, unfortunately clearly illustrates the current level of political culture of some representatives of the US government or, should I say, their level of cynicism towards the rest of the world. I am sure that no US general would ever have allowed himself to express such feelings. (Source: http://tass.ru/politika/2331242 )
Does that not remind you of something? Does that not sound like a repeat of the threat made by Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan ‘s threat to unleash ‘Chechen’ terror attacks against Russia? At the very least, this is, yet again, a sign that the US controls or, rather, thinks that it controls the Wahabi crazies and can unleash them against any opponent.
Typically, there are two basic ways the West handles any Russian military operation: they are either presented as mass murder and butchery or as gross, primitive and ineffective. CNN chose the second option and reported that “A number of cruise missiles launched from a Russian ship and aimed at targets in Syria have crashed in Iran, two U.S. officials told CNN Thursday”. Both Russia and Iran immediately denied that, as for the State Department and the Pentagon, they have refused to confirm or deny these reports.
Maria Zakarova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry reacted with disgust to these reports on her FB account and wrote : “I have read the CNN reports claiming that “Russian cruise missiles fell in Iran.” I wonder, do they write that out of impotent anger, or what? As for the constant references to “sources” they remind of the channeling of water from the sewer”.
Clearly, the Russians are rather disgusted with the rather pathetic US reactions to the Russian military operation. As for US officials, they appear rather clueless as to what do do next.
However, these appearances can be deceiving: this “game” is very far from being over.
As I have written in a recent column , the notion that Russia has established a no-fly zone over Syria is plain false: four SU-30MS, even if backed by six SU-34s are not enough to establish any kind of no-fly zone. The real mission of these SU-30MSs is to protect the Russian Air Force from any overzealous Turkish or Israeli fighter, not to establish a no-fly zone. In fact, according to the commander of the USAF operation over Syria, the US flies many more sorties than the Russians. What he does not add is that most of these US sorties do not include the release of weapons whereas all the Russian ones do. But, really, this is comparing apples and oranges. The USAF can fly as many sorties as it wants, only the Russian aircraft are operating in close coordination with Syrian and Iranian ground forces.
What worries me most is that people on both sides like to engage in cheap bravado and say things like “the Americans/Russians would never dare to attack a Russian/American aircraft”. This is a very dangerous way of thinking about what is going on because it ignores all the historical evidence for decision-makers taking very dumb decisions to try to avoid appearing humiliated by the other side (Ehud Olmert in 2006, immediately comes to mind). The fact that Obama and the USA look totally out-smarted is nice, of course, but also potentially very dangerous.
The good news is that, at least for the time being, neither Russia nor the USA are directly threatening each other, at least not on a military level. The USAF apparently has decided on a 20miles “avoidance radius” and while the Russians have not made any statements about this, I am pretty sure that they also go out of their way not to interfere with the Americans, much less so threaten them directly. Still, this situation is inherently dangerous.
Since this is a real combat zone and not just some peacetime patrol area, Russian and American aircraft have to use radar modes which are normally associated with a hostile intent: not just scan the skies for any potential enemy, but also actively track any detected aircraft. This is a very delicate situation because once a radar has acquired an aircraft and is actively tracking it all the pilot has to do to attack is press one button. For the pilot in the aircraft being tracked, this is similar to having a gun pointed at you – it makes you very nervous. To make things worse, modern aircraft can actually engage each other without using these radar modes and they can try to hide their radar signals, but that only adds to the tension. It is precisely because the US and Russia are two nuclear powers that it is crucial that neither side count on the other one to “blink first” or play any game of chicken. The politicians can indulge in this kind of nonsense, but I hope that the generals on both sides will do everything in their power to avoid any such situation. Right now, the situation appears to be under control, but it could get worse very fast. Hopefully, the Pentagon and the Russian General Staff will come to an “de-conflicting” agreement soon.
There are numerous reports that Iran is preparing a major intervention in Syria. These reports come from many sources and I consider them credible simply because there is no way that the very limited Russian intervention can really change the tide of the war, at least not by itself. Yes, I do insist that the Russian intervention is a very limited one. 12 SU-24M, 12 SU-25SM, 6 SU-34 and 4 SU-30SM are not a big force, not even backed by helicopters and cruise missiles. Yes, the Russian force has been very effective to relieve the pressure on the northwestern front and to allow for a Syrian Army counter-offensive, but that will not, by itself, end the war. For one thing, should things get really ugly, the Daesh crazies can simply repeat what they have already done in the past: cross the border into Turkey, Jordan and Iraq. Furthermore, you cannot hold any ground from the air. For that, “boots on the ground” are needed and Russian boots are not coming – Putin has unambiguously stated that (although he did leave a small door open for a future change of strategy by saying that a ground intervention was not in the “current plans”). Regardless, anything short of a minor or very short intervention would be fantastically hard to sell in Russia and I therefore still don’t believe that it will happen. My bet is on the Iranians. Well, when I say “Iranians” I mean Iranians and their allies, including Hezbollah, but not necessarily in Iranian uniforms.
Chances are, the Iranians and the Syrians will want to keep the magnitude of the Iranian involvement as hidden from view as possible. But, of course, they won’t be able to fool the USA, Turkey or Israel for very long, at least not if a large Iranian force is involved.
So the big question for me is this: what will the USA do if (when?) Iran intervenes in Syria?
Chances are that the Iraqis will request the Russian help to defeat Daesh exactly at the moment when the Iranians make their move. If the Russians agree, and it looks like they might, the Russian Air Force will, in fact, be providing air cover for the Iranian forces moving across Iraq towards Syria. My guess is that the Russians will try to get some UNSC Resolution to allow an international intervention in Syria or that, failing that, they will try to get some kind of deal with the USA. But that is going to be awfully hard, as they Neocons will go ballistic if the Iranians actually make a big move into Syria.
Right now the Russian Air Force does not have the resources needed to support an Iranian move into Syria, and that might be the reason for a reappearance of the rumor about “six MiG-31s” going to Syria . I personally have seen no evidence for that, at least not form any halfway dencent source, but if that does really happen, then this will become a major game-changer because one thing is certain: MiG-31s will never be used against Daesh or even a few isolated Turkish or Israeli fighters; if the MiG-31s ever really show up in the Syrian skies, their goal will be to keep control of the Syrian airspace and that implies a direct and credible threat against the US and its allies. The same goes for the actual deployment of S-300s. Thank God,we are not there yet. But unless the Syrian Army manages an extremely successful offensive against Daesh, a large Iranian intervention will become very likely. Then things will become very dangerous indeed.
In the meantime, NATO is still busy making big statement about being “ ready to defend Turkey ” while McCain declares that the US and Russia are engaged in a “ proxy war ”. We ought to be grateful for such loud emissions of hot hair because, hopefully, as long as the western leaders feel that their empty talk makes them look credible, they will not be tempted to do something truly stupid and dangerous.
These are definitely dangerous times.
Three main reasons for which NATO is not attacking Russia right now
The first reason (nuclear deterrence) is true.
The second (tension within the NATO) is partly true – where the tensions are mainly based on practical reasons. Since the state of the European Armies is pretty much on the pittyful side. Would the European Armies be capable of fighting a real war, there would be no tensions at all.
If Washington would say “Jump!” – Europe would just ask “How high?”. Especially our dear German “cuntzleress”!
The third (America needs Russia “to clena up the mess in the Middle East”) is complete bullshit. This mess is the very objective of the American actions taken there during the past ~35 yrs!
Beginning with the coup that brought Saddam Hussein to Power.
And from my point of view the latter is the reason (and the inherent danger, mentioned by the Saker) for the American desperation, hysteria and informational nonsense (where the latter can also be accounted to habit).
I mean 35 yrs. of dirty tricks are about to be crushed within a few weeks/months. If I’d be an American Asshole (TM) I’d go crazy, too ;)
Regarding European forces.
In a lot of my reading in the past about WWII, the Italian army was not a good performer for the Nazi’s. Sometimes ridiculed.
It was easy to see their heart wasn’t in it, as many most likely believed they were fighting for the wrong side. This was quite obvious when they hung Mussolini from a bridge.
I suspect many European “leaders” are staying well away from bridges these days.
Mussolini was killed by the gladio types, aided by mafia dons in New York.. well thats what I heard anyway.
Yeah it was Indian troops who had to stop the Anglo savages from raping Italian women. http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2015/08/a-tradition-of-chivalry.html?m=1
I am not sure I agree with you.
Even though it is true that Merkel is a US stooge, German corporate interests are to a great extent in conflict with US corporate interests and also against French/British and Italian interests. Notice that traditionally (up until 1945 when Germany got out of the hard power game) Britain, France and even Italy were enemies of Germany, almost permanently.
The VW affair lays bare the US strategy for containing (read: seriously harming) German industry. The US clearly wants to promote the interests of GM/Ford and even more crucially newcomers such as Tesla and maybe Apple (they say they will make a car before the end of the decade) In the car industry (Germany’s 2nd most important in value terms and number one in symbolic terms, first is machinery) only the luxury segment makes any serious profits in the current global economic environment, hence if any car-maker wants to make inroads into that market segment, they will have to take market share from German brands. Notice how France and Italy immediately jumped from joy once this “scandal” broke out and are pushing for legal measures against VW.
It is this reality that Putin (and also the Chinese and even Iranians) wants to leverage so as to break the western alliance. Russia/China/Iran do not directly compete with Germany in the economic sphere, while Western countries do, hence it makes sense for Germany (especially in the long-term) to switch allegiance.
The US strategists are well aware of this, hence their heavy investment in media propaganda against Russia in the German press, their pre-meditated “refugee crisis”, the VW “scandal” etc etc. The US (and other western powers) wished to neutralize Germany as an independent actor, and for this to happen a cocktail of propaganda, confusion, internal division, and economic subversion is required.
For Germany to survive as an economic powerhouse (and as a nation) a new kind of political class is required and a new strategic direction. This has been made a lot easier by the actions of Putin, but it will still require a break from the past on the part of German politicians.
Will it happen? I really cannot answer that question.
It would seem to me those countries should offer economic partnerships to German companies (and only German companies,at first). Let them understand the huge markets they have been offered access to.Also let them understand that access can also be denied as well.Let them understand that this is a “deal of a lifetime”.But only if Germany drops its anti-Russian stance.That they can’t have it both ways,get rich in the East,while still trashing their pardners.If Germany will not agree,then forget them and move on.Sometimes, as in personal human “relationships” you find your “mate” doesn’t really want to marry you.Then you give up the relationship and find a new “mate”.That is exactly the strategy that Russia/China and Iran should follow.
Dear The Saker,
Breaking news – http://tass.ru/en/defense/828054
“Sukhoi Su-30 fighters have been included in the air group of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov told reporters on Monday.”
What is the difference that SU-30’s bring to the forces?
Regarding the ravings of Carter and various US officials. It seems to be a sign of total desperation of the US. Not just loss of face in Syria.
For quite some time, various scribblers in the independent media have been reporting the end of the US dollar is nigh.
A recent report in MSM Reuters and also a report from the IMF several weeks ago, now also starting to move in this direction by saying the risk of a world wide economic collapse is high.
Can the US officials see the writing on the wall for a total collapse of the US system, same as the USSR suddenly collapsed, if they do not win in Syria.
If US officials believe the only way out of a total economic collapse is a major war, then these are very dangerous times.
The US is in relative economic decline, and is faced with a gigantic geostrategic defeat at the hands of Russia.
But if the US acts sensibly, and backs off from the Syrian debacle, they can live to fight another day.
I disagree with all those who claim that the end of the dollar is nigh. It is not, and neither China, nor Russia want this to happen right now.
I agree, the hysteria is moronic and very, very dangerous. The dollar can’t be replaced as the world’s reserve currency(not yet anyway). But from my readings a big reason for ISIS is not only to get rid of Assad, but to make damn sure the Iran/Iraq/Syrian pipeline doesn’t get built
The whole “the US$ is imminently doomed” narrative is juvenile. While it is highly possible that the US$ will be quite unstable as the world reserve currency for the next few years, there is indeed nothing to replace it.
Maybe, there will be a significant rise in the price of gold in relation to the US$, but that’s about it, I think.
Yes, one of the main factors behind the war in Syria is competing pipeline projects, on the one hand we have the Iran-Iraq-Syria line that was to be built by Gazprom, and on the other, the Qatar-KSA-Jordan-Syria-Turkey-EU pipeline that the Empire of Filth wants to see built.
Also, there is the massive question of who controls Iran-Iraq (and their mythical oil & gas reserves, let alone strategic location, especially in the case of Iran)
Hence why the stakes over Syria are this high.
The problem today, unlike, say, at the time of the Cuban crisis, is that the ruling elite in Washington is these days a lower type, intellectually and morally, than in 1962. Moreover dissent and refusal to question authority is far more entrenched, possibly due to the dominance of the neo-conservatives, who bring that absolute refusal to compromise and extreme belligerence that is the mark of the Zionazis everywhere. In fact, to all intents and purposes, we are all Gazans now, at least as far as the Zionazi ruling elite are concerned.
$ under extreme pressure; at some point, once its use has spiralled down sufficiently percent-wise, it will just suffer a cataclysmic collapse in a run.
It is not linear in any way.
Almost certainly why the rhetoric against China. It’s possible the USN Carrier Roosevelt is proceeding with haste to the S. China Sea, with that story about “sudden maintenance” just another cover BS story.
China’s Central Bank has started a global payment system which provides cross-border transactions in yuan.
The China International Payment System (CIPS) intends to internationalize the yuan and challenge the US dollar’s dominance.
“The establishment of CIPS is an important milestone in yuan internationalization, providing the infrastructure that will connect global yuan users through one single system,” Helen Wong, greater China chief executive at HSBC, was cited as saying by the Financial Times.
Thanks for that link. China had been trying to work within the system and have the IMF add the yuan to the basket of international currencies. This was supposed to occur not long ago, but the IMF (US) has deferred adding it for another nine months.
It was obvious that the US would never agree to the RMB becoming a world reserve currency in competition with the petro dollar, and I fully expected China to start setting up an alternative system.
thank You for such a precise and crystal clear analysis…
Speed is essential for the Russian intervention, with Iraq asking to join in the chances of forcing the mercenary groups back into their safe havens in Jordan and Turkey en mass spiral upwards. Given their odious character they will force changes in those safe havens that find them most unwelcome.
However, speed remains the essential element, whereas the Novorussians need to hold and wait, the reverse is true for Syria and Iraq a war pursued in hot pursuit is required to keep the US off guard and get ahead of attempts to derail.
It is dangerous because this is the end game, US military prestige is receiving a belly blow and it is already folding up. Terrorists on the run, people returning to their homes, that needs to happen within a few months and on a scale that the whole world cannot ignore.
Peace as a direct outcome of effective military application, and with that a changing geopolitical character across the Middle East will kick off a new and very different Arab spring.
My worry is not the size of Russian commitment, I believe it will be kept very modest, but the effective of collective actions and the legitimization of Iran as a peace partner in the region — a shift eastward for the Middle East and the beginnings of regional development.
On a side note, hopefully all that Chinese experimentation with ultra-quick, extremely cheap, 3d printed housing will find a role in quickly reconstructing cities and villages with better housing stock then previously existed and all at lightening speed, effectively enticing refugees back home. That is now technically possible as well (for the first time in history.
The military defeat of these mercenaries is a belly blow, the fatal blow is what can follow up once peace is obtained — and that is where China, I hope will step in.
Good point. I like your 3D printing suggestion. My guess is that China is now deliberating with the EU for a political solution. Meanwhile Russia has the advantage of speed, regardless of size
Unz review: Thanks, Saker, for the analysis.
“If US officials believe the only way out of a total economic collapse is a major war, then these are very dangerous times.”
There is a faction in the shadow government that thinks just that and wants an excuse to torpedo any agreements with Iran. An Iranian up-front out-in-the-open intervention would suit their needs just fine. However, as they say ( apologies to animal lovers) there is more than one way to skin a cat.
Let’s just hope the Kurds and their legitimate national aspirations don’t get hung out to dry by all parties in this imbroglio. And they are not going down in front of the Turks like the Armenians.
Don’t forget that there is a sizeable segment of US elite opinion, and, more so amongst the more intellectually challenged members of society, who are simply itching for the Apocalypse, and who see Russia and China as Gog and Magog. Similar tendencies exist amongst Jews and Islamic fanatics of the type unleashed on Syria and Iraq. Israel already threatened, in 1973, to provoke nuclear war by attacking the Soviet, if the USA did not fully replenish their arsenal after the Yom Kippur attack, and one cannot totally dismiss the possibility of some Judaic fundamentalist military leader in Israel acting in that fashion now. Indeed, the possibility of the Satan-yahoo regime launching a nuclear strike on Iran is also ‘non-trivial’.
“Israel already threatened, in 1973, to provoke nuclear war by attacking the Soviet, if the USA did not fully replenish their arsenal…”
Throwing a tantrum, like any toddler does, yawn.
re “s that the ruling elite in Washington is these days a lower type, intellectually and morally, than in 1962. Moreover dissent and refusal to question authority is far more entrenched,”
Not sure I can agree with this. My understanding of the power dynamics of teh all-too-short Kennedy era is that JFK and RFK and teh “kitchen cabinet” stood basically alone, against their generals, CIA goons and Dulles brothers at CIA and State, etc. who slavered then for war with Russia. Kennedy not only held them back and refused to go along (e.g. Bay of Pigs) but opened a back channel to both Fidel and Khrushchev after teh Missile Crisis, who was under similar pressure from his own military cadres, to work together to prevent any nuclear accidents. So, DC has I guess gotten worse, but it is the vacuum also at the top, the failure to use the immense power of the Executive branch to direct foreign policy. by deploying this power on many levels (including cabinet appointments, namely State and DoD) I reckon there is NO ONE who talks sense to Obama—a lost sheep whose loyalties are probably shifting all the time, according to where he senses danger to himself, and maybe his family, and last, the nation.
Katherine is correct. See here for some extracts from James W. Douglass’s book JFK and the Unspeakable — Why He Died and Why It Matters
I agree that Katherine is correct, but the difference, in my opinion, is that, while the military remain bloodthirsty, if slightly less so than utter monsters like Curtis LeMay, the quality of the President and his civilian advisers is lower now. Obama is no JFK, and he is totally controlled by the Zionazi ‘neo-conservatives’ which makes US geo-politics a simulacrum of Israel’s. That, I believe is the great difference. In 1962 the ruling civilian elite were US jingoists and supremacists, and today they are overwhelmingly ‘Israel First’ Jewish Fifth Columnists or neo-conservative Sabbat Goyim compradores. Still jingos and Western supremacists, but with different loyalties.
I actually don’t know if I agree with Katherine about Obama..I think that he’s a total empty suit who fooled voters in the first election. And the second election was about voting ‘against’ Romney…which was necessary….but I don’t have any sympathy for Obama…I think he’s corrupt and basically slithers around. And he doesn’t even look human..and this is not a racist statement…he just looks empty.
I agree. And I have zero sympathy for Obama. My comments as to his being a lost sheep were not meant to imply sympathy. But to me Obama is a total cypher. I don’t think he is stupid, but I do think he has psychological problems including incredible egomania.
Haven’t we been wondering ever since he was elected who this man “really” is? Does he have a plan? Is he a CIA “bot” raised from childhood to be an asset? Or just a nobody who happened to be taken up by teh Chicago crowd? I do know that the behind-the-scenes fight was intense for Obama to get to make the keynote speech at the Dem Convention in 2004. So, if there was a plan it was already in operation at that time.
I will never forget the shudder that went through me as I watched the 2008 Inaugural. (I think I have written about this sometime on this blog, but here goes again. ) The camera followed Obama as he walked through the interior hallways of the Capitol on hisi way t great the hysterically jubilant crowd in front–is that the Mall? Anyhow, the came was on his face, and the expression i saw there was chilling. The pride, the closedness, the coldness–a qualityh that I couldn’t name but it filled me with foreboding. I had the sense that teh mask was down for a few minutes. Rgw Obama visage freaked me out!! Wish I could find this footage online but the only footage I find is the Inaugural ceremony, not the hallway walk. If someone can find it I would like to view it again, to check my reactions and see again what I reacted to so strongly then. Maybe it was the face of a man who has made a deal with the devil. But he kind of looked to me more like the devil . . .
There were so many indications as to who Obama was even during the election. People were so desperate for Hope and Change, and so thrilled at the prospect of having a black president, that they didn’t bother to actually listen to his platform, such as increasing support for continued imperial adventures in Afghanistan, to state the most obvious.
But the signs were unmistakable. The CFR deep staters had clearly made their choice, for those who cared to see them:
1) There was a famous interview on Zbig on Charlie Rose where he basically said “Just think of the symbolism!” To me that gives away the store.
2) I can’t recall if it was shortly before or after this interview that both Hillary and Obama were seen at the 2008 Bilderberg meeting in Virginia, but for anyone paying attention it was clear the fix was in: Obama was selected as their puppet, much to Hillary’s great chagrin.
Sadly, I still know quite a few “liberals” who still think Obama farts perfume, and nothing will convince them otherwise.
Hi Katherine, you didn’t sign here but I think its you…yeah..I want to share a funny story about my impression of Obama the first time I saw a video of him after first election…he was looking at his iphone with his wife by his side sitting somewhere…i had distinct impression that he was being prompted…and I had just read some article about him…where did he come from ? And the article said that he excelled in basket ball in university.
Ann, the Chicago Jewish News on October 24, 2008, published an article called ‘Obama and the Jews’, by Pauline Yearwood. It outlined how Obama was talent-spotted at college by a Zionist academic, and his career, in work and politics, was financed and controlled by rich Chicago Jews, thereafter, the Pritzker family in particular. I’d say that they recognise ‘talent’ amongst the goyim, after millennia of practise in the art of recruiting and controlling Sabbat Goyim. You knew that Obama was a psychopath when he ‘joked’ about setting drone missiles on some boy band, early in his Presidency, and from his subsequent personal involvement in choosing victims of these cowardly and barbaric attacks.
It’s said a lot that the elite are looking for Armageddon, but I highly doubt this – though of course they may achieve it through hubris and stupidity.
The elite want to be just that – elite. And for that you need plenty of people to exploit, torment, terrorise and general screw with. Armageddon would do away with all that, and thus with their power. They’d just be a handful of survivors in their fallout shelters. No fun in that.
orion, some of the ‘elite’ believe that they will be Raptured. The less insane believe that after a period in shelters (Dr. Strangelove did the calculations)they will inherit a world cleansed of the billions of ‘useless eaters’ that they fear and hate, and whose extermination they have been planning for centuries. Personally I suspect that they’ll prefer to avoid too much destruction of property, so will choose plague instead, like the next stage of the Ebola Project. The latest ‘mutation’ proved quite effective, and seems to have an AIDS-like chronic effect, including sexual transmission, amongst the survivors, but I’m sure that Fort Detrick et al can do even better.
1. Insane MLRS (Smerch cluster munitions) barrage:
A witness videotaped the new weapon used by Syrian Government forces to support progress on the ground in Hama countryside on October 10th, 2015
2. Latmin was liberated by Syrian Army, then recaptured by terrorists, and 6 hours later liberated by the Syrian Armed Forces once again.
3.” Pretty interesting video from ANNA-News. TOS is being used, SAA is shouting “Allah Akbar”(This is for those who think that it’s an indicator of something. This is not how you distinguish “moderate” from “radical”. You do it by checking if this or that group is executing prisoners, working with Al-Nusra, etc ), SAA soldiers are saying, quote, “Bravo”, to the ATGM operator.
This war is a tragedy, but also a soup of interesting things.”
Syria. Storming of Achan:
Achan has been liberated on October 10th, 2015 as a result of this operation.
4. FSA “threatens” Russia with “second Afghanistan” | Eng Subs
“He said – Hello Russian people… Assad will end in 6-12 month. Help us. not him. if you do not want second Afghanistan. spasiba.”
“Hi Russian friends and people. We will fight till the end in a 6 month or year. We want to tell Russian government and president Putin to stop helping the right people here on the ground. We do not want Afghanistan 2.0 and thank you”
His message is completely misunderstood by everyone. He has to do this all over again.
@ Scott. Video here of helicopters here, right on the deck digging out anything that moves or is trying to hide. This is more like trying to dig feral cattle out of thick scrub than combat. No RPGs?
Those Russian helicopters are literally walking on the roofs.
Russian pilots are the best.
The satirical version of the same events:
Syria – Everything you need to know about the Middle East today.
Scott, that FSA guy made me sick…I absolutely couldn’t watch it…
Scripted and rehearsed. No different than an add for Coca Cola or a big mac. The secret of cokes success was advertising. US now think that will take the place of good policy.
CIA are big on advertising too. I can’t pick it up now but the CIA were looking for “video producers”
I’ve had a bit of a scroll through the CIA job opportunities site, and the thing that really stands out is applicants must have the ability to lie to their families. Applicants have to be the scum of the earth.
Somebody needs to tell the FSA about WWII, Napoleon, Charles XII etc etc etc.
Also, the Afghanistan debacle (which is what it was for Russia) has been grossly exaggerated by both Western propaganda and within Russia by those who were in favor of Perestroika etc. it was certainly no Vietnam, and the Red Army never left in a haste and in panic such as the US had to do in Vietnam.
Moreover, the similarities between between Afghanistan in 1979 and Syria 2015 are extremely limited. In Afghanistan, the USSR entered a low-level conflict which escalated with time (along with US-Saudi help) In fact, the only similarity is that Russia was in both cases fighting jihadists.
Now in Syria, in contrast with Afghanistan, Russia has powerful regional allies (Iran, Iraq, Hezbollah and Syria itself) as well as China. This was definitely not the case in Afghanistan when practically everyone (other than the most loyal Warsaw Pact countries, Cuba and North Korea, who could not help) was against the USSR, and more crucially the regional power, Pakistan (into which Osama and pals fled whenever receiving a pummeling) Now in Syria, the Jihadists can be blocked from all sides:
a) From the Western Assad stronghold and the Russian Army.
b) In the North from the Kurds.
c) In the South from a combination of Hezbollah/SAA/Russia. Also Jordan can be easily pressured.
d) In the East from Iran/Iraq.
Also, Syrian geography is very different from Afghan geography. Syria is smaller than Afghanistan. Syria is also much less mountainous, offering less places to hide, or escape into.
But more importantly, Western interests in the long-run are not well served by continuing this fight with Russia and Iran. Sensible people in the US, know that that they will have to back down, but need a way to sell it to their audience.
Putin must offer some face-saving diplomatic measure, so that this ends smoothly.
“FSA (US intel) threatens Russia with second Afghanistan”
Blah blah. Yawn.
This is for those who think that it’s an indicator of something. This is not how you distinguish “moderate” from “radical”.
I am truly finding a hard time understanding the psychology of such “utterings”. Not running the risk of misinterpreting it as an indicator of this or that faction. If it is loosely regarded as a prayer, I’ve seen it employed in contexts of relief, panic, success and failure alike, but usage in such disparate, at times, opposite contexts only neutralize eventual meaning the phrase may acquire. We’re left with the trascending character of an event, and it must then reflect some mental state, it’s externalization, yet void of specific meaning. In the surface I can relate it with the practice of memorizing a multiplication table or something, when obviously that is not what it is.
I don’t dispute that Man, even despite all it’s great achivements, is so small facing nature or a divine force one may choose to himself, but to keep reinforcing ad nauseam such observation can only, from where I’m standing, empty the phrase of the meaning it may eventualy intend to convey. This is specially perverse if the circumstance which originates such uttering can be anything, inclusive those which can be traced back to Man’s will himself, nevermind it’s morality or lack thereof (ie. bombing some place). So…
What is the actual high order context and meaning of “alahu akhbar”? What does it communicate if anything?
*I bring this thought with the utmost respect for the religious beliefs affected by the question, there is no intention to offend, only to understand. The question is open.
I suppose it is like when English speaking persons shout “O my God” in all sorts of situations, from getting a Christmas gift, to witnessing the collaps of WTC, to having sex… just to mention a few examples……
You are right in a way.I think some people forget that both sides consider themselves devout Muslims (the jihadi version is just a perverted version of Islam).So that term which in English would be ,I believe, “God is great”,is common throughout the Muslim World.Its been hi-jacked so much by the jihadis that non-Muslims think of it as a jihadi term.
to Uncle Bob…”God is great” yeah, but which ‘god’ is that ? There are many ‘gods’ depending on what you call higher beings…Allah is the name of Islam’s god..is that Jehovah ? Or the Father ?
There are many beings in the higher worlds who are infinitely more powerful than we are..they are older…so the “God” that the Takfiris worship is definitely not Allah…even if they are calling ‘it’ by that name. Its Satan…the father of deceit that they are ultimately worshipping, although he has his hosts as well, and they have their names, for those who know these things. Lucifer is a well known – anti-god, if you want to call it that. Retarded spirits is another term….deceptive beings. Anti-normal….
You are right if we stick to the literary translation. But I consider also the christian phrase:
“Thank God” uttered when something perceived as good and unexplained happens, as if saying:
“It is God we must thank for this, since only His greatness could serve such miracle, not possibly being a man’s work”, but then the translation fails since the context is then limited to good things/fortune…
I doubt it. It must mean that sufficient people have noticed the jihadists screeching ‘Allahu Akbar’ over and over again, and woken up to the fact that these ‘secular moderates’ are takfiri butchers, and that the FSA is al-Qaeda, as German intelligence told Merkel in 2012. So a stupid cover-story lie, that all Moslems gibber this jihadist cry all the time, must be invented.
Saker–While you were busily typing this report, b over at Moon of Alabama was typing up his latest where he declares the Outlaw Empire will double-down supporting its terrorist mercenaries and guide them in attacking Russian assets, http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/10/obama-launches-a-proxy-war-on-russia-in-syria.html I’ll refrain from posting any of his write-up as folks will want to read the entire item.
I’ve studied the Outlaw Empire a longtime and I think he’s correct. One aspect you omitted is the fact that Daesh’s behavior drastically changed once Russia started its mission, clearly showing they were 100% unafraid of “coalition” air strikes. Combine that with the initial knee-jerk hysterics from Depravity Central, and bingo! we have more than enough proof Daesh is one of the many terrorist mercenaries being run by the CIA.
The Outlaw Empire bet the farm on total implementation of Vision 2020–Full Spectrum Dominance–and it shows no signs of de-escalating that drive. Indeed, its doctrine cannot abide any competitors strong enough to nix that and return geopolitics to a multipolar mode. Those in charge of the Deep State have proven they don’t care how many they kill or how many dollars must be printed to achieve their goal–Exceptional Hubris on steroids and meth! They want to cull the human population by 80% [as expressed by Rockefeller and many other elites], so a nuclear war isn’t out of the question for them since it serves their aims. Remember, they don’t care what means are used to arrive at their desired ends.
Precisely, Outlaw. Putin and Xi are facing insanely evil psychopaths who will kill billions in order to maintain their God-ordained rule over the planet. And they definitely plan to kill billions this century-it is their plan to cure the ecological crisis of crises. I expect a ‘mysterious new disease’ or ‘new mutation of Ebola’ will do much of the work.
I agree and sound like a single handed piano player with only an index finger left to hit the same note. US is broke going for broke, doubling down on PNAC and Full Spectrum Dominance. They actually believe they can fight major wars in two theatre’s at the same time, that being South China Sea and in Europe through the middle east. The UK told it’s pilots that if they encountered any Russian Planes over Iraq to shoot them down. And I suppose that order will stand whether Russia is legally invited in by the Government of Iraq or not. We are dealing with Rogue Cabal of Nations who have done NOTHING for this world other than engorge at the expense of thousands of millions of lives over the last 500 years. They will not give up their privileges unless forced to do so. The only hope is increased communication among the generals….and the information war….the more the truth comes out about CIA funding Al Qaeda and ISIS the more the disconnect in the narrative the greater the chance that the people of America themselves bring this rotten cabal to an end. They didn’t vote Obama in based on the colour of his skin. They brought him in to clean house and he failed them betrayed them. Indeed, the American population is ready for their Napoleon…..Donald Trump. Sander’s just may make it but the party machine is fixed for Clinton. In Canada it looks like Harper will be gone. Young Trudeau Liberal may take his place. I don’t believe he is corruptible but our security services are totally corrupted. He better be wearing a Big White Hat as Canada needs to flush the rats out of the administration asap. What will see IF he wins is a greater role for Canadian Diplomacy and Canada the good guy on the world stage…..and Chretien the former Liberal PM who said no to war in Iraq…did visit Putin. I expect he will brief Trudeau on the meeting. We were never informed as to the content of that meeting but the door as they say seems to be open.
I’ll believe that about Canada when I see it.I hope its true.I’d like to see Canada return to its old position of being the “sane” one in English-speaking North America.But the US has spent a lot of time and money subverting that country over the years,so I won’t count on it.
Not a hope, RR. No population in history is as thoroughly brainwashed as the Yanks, or ‘septics’ as the old-timers called them. Even the Afro-Americans in the ghettos are jingos.
except Canadians and Australians and Germans and French, not to forget British
“…the Outlaw Empire will double-down supporting its terrorist mercenaries and guide them in attacking Russian assets. ”
How creative! Yawn. Have they done anything else in the last zillion years? Moreover, it is not going to work.
Syria is not Afghanistan. Syria is a rather small country. About the size of Oregon, the area currently controlled by the SAA is about the size of Lithuania or Latvia. If the SAA and the RuAF manage to push the (80%+ foreign) Fake-Jihadis out of the Syrian ‘heart-land’ – and they will – all doubling-down will be nothing but another predictable third-class move.
But the US will do something different. Keeping Syria on the back-burner for a time, while concentrating their full-spectrum chaos & terror machinery on other areas. From the Baltic down to Poland, the Balkans, Turkey, East to Chechnya, Armenia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, etc. right into China.
Nothing to original, either, but the Zionist banker’s wars must go on.
the anouncement of ending 500 m dollars direct training of peoples in Syria , but will fund armaments……..maybe is hinting or directly contacting to anyone who wishes to take up arms against Syria, and by association, any Syrian allies ie directly against Rus, Iran etc.
Watch out for Georgia being strengthened by NATO recently and other trouble makers….hence Putin specifically saying he is warning but ready for any action against Rus .
Nor did they announce ending the CIA shenanigan’s in the ME which are the actual caretaker’s of ISIS. It struck me today that the military failed to train “moderate” rebels because they didn’t want to train so called moderates. Unlike the CIA who is fronting this entire phony war on terror. That to me is not a sign of weakness of the military but rather a sign of bureaucratic infighting and strength. Let’s look for further deterioration between these two outfits…..And within the CIA itself.
Yes. You and Mulga are exactly right (as usual).
Susan George’s Lugano Report could be an actual deep state white paper on the theory and practice of global population culling.
For those unacquainted with the actual writings of ur-capitalism’s prophet Marquis de Sade I highly recommend a reading of his novel Juliette, which is replete with long discussions of these deep statists about such theory and practice. eg:
Sade understood the mentality well, and this was back in 1797.
The psychopaths in power are monomaniacal, and nothing will deter them from pursuing their goals. They are incapable of empathy and impervious to reason because they are driven by a truly insatiable lust. Sadly for our species most of us prefer the comfort of feeling a sense of belonging to our clan that trumps our ability to reason and follow the courage of our heart to do what is morally right: if people refused to obey the immoral orders of their psychopathic leaders peace would be far easier to come by.
As actor-network theorist John Law says: “No one, no thing, no class, no gender, can ‘have power’ unless a set of relations is constituted and held in place: a set of relations that distinguishes between this and that (distribution), and then goes on to regulate the relations between this and that.” The question for those of us who seek a better world is how to break into those sets of relations that maintain the power of the psychopaths to create new sets of relations.
@Lohmann on October 11, 2015 · at 1:30 pm UTC
Thank you! that was well worth reading.
Marquis de Sade or Thomas Malthus,his: An Essay on the Principle of Population,clearly the present day psycopaths are well read.
Zbig,Wolfowitz et al……
The current attempt to spot ‘potential radicals’,’extremists’,can also be used to ‘spot’ psycopathic and sociopathic tendencies.
There have been many studies lately on the psychopathic & sociopathic personality in addition to many older studies on the authoritarian personality. It is known how to spot them. But then what? Since such personalities naturally find themselves at the top of the pyramid it’s far easier for them to weed out the ‘potential radicals and extremists’ than it is for those below them to topple them. If law enforcement faces such great difficulty bringing down known underworld gangsters, how much more difficult is it for the hoi poloi (even those in ivory towers) to bring down “legitimate” overworld gangsters?
This leads back to a discussion on another thread I started with Outlaw Historian but didn’t have the wherewithal to continue (due to lame excuses of time & timeliness). At what point for the good of the commonwealth is it incumbent upon the masses to pursue their own extrajudicial assassinations, when the fate of the very world is at stake? The deep state can be named and located, after all. (Does anyone remember the American Coalition of Life Activists website that showed a map of abortion doctors located with rifle scopes, listing their names & addresses?) The state claims they have the sole legitimate monopoly on violence, and the rest of us must obey; how is that different from a holy book stating its author is a deity whose laws we must obey? The state is nothing more than a consensual reality, and perception is the modern field of war.
All consensual realities require belief. Money is an excellent example of that. When the civil war ended, confederate dollars were instantly worthless. Why? Because no one believed in them anymore. What would happen to the state if people stopped believing in its authority — especially when a state becomes a criminal gangster state patently losing its legitimacy? Protests and candlelight vigils won’t do anything to stop those who have no qualms about fomenting color revolutions, creating false flags, starting up death squads, or unleashing liver-eating terrorists. To quote Ward Churchill in his important book Pacifism as Pathology: Reflections on the Role of Armed Stuggle in North America:
In my opinion the deep state has been preparing for dealing with its ‘internal enemies’ in more effective ways since Rex 84, and recently its preparations have been ratcheted up. (That’s why I emigrated from the US many years ago — nowhere is really safe anymore, but I’d rather try to survive away from the epicenter.)
Do means justify the ends? Must those who resist the monsters become monsters themselves to do so? I’ll let Ward Churchill, in the conclusion of the same book, answer that for me:
Excellent Lohmann. I second your suggestion and also suggest Simone de Beauvoir’s writings about de Sade from which much can be learned since Deep State elites are essentially Libertines. Thanks for the link to George’s paper. Unfortunately, all too many are willing to carry water for the Killer Elite. I expect them to return to South America with their chaos; too much independence there, and it’s a relatively soft target. Although, invading Central Asia thru Afghanistan is also very likely as they’ve already done a bit of reconnaissance in Tajikistan, and a Baghdad-style embassy’s being built in Turkmenistan.
In the South China Sea, I expect a confrontation attempting to destabilize China’s economic soft power expansion; although, I’ll be happy to be proved wrong. Hard to use proxies there as it’s difficult for terrorist mercenaries to have navies.
The deep state really does seem comprised of Sadean libertines, doesn’t it? One need only look at their pedophile rings, news of which sometimes actually break through the conspiracy of MSM silence…
Lohman, excellent contributions. Do you know Rigorous Intuition blog? It contains many interesting articles on Western elite perversion, libertinism, diabolism and worship of Evil. As you say the Rightwing psychopathic personality is well understood, and it describes all Western elites these days, in politics, business and the MSM/entertainment (or ‘tittietainment’ as exemplary monster Brzezinski recommended)/advertising Moloch. Lobaczewski’s ‘Political Ponerology’ the study of moral evil in action, is also instructive. How to rid the Earth of a dominant, psychopathic, infinitely hostile elite? The question of questions. Time is also running out for an answer.
Lohman ! Have your read Guido Preparata’s book “Ideology of Tyranny” Its fantastic…its all about the generations since Sade…he follows all the disciples…its really good.
Hello Ann. I have not heard of it — thank you for alerting me to it, sounds like a great read!
I know RI well. Back in my blogging days he was one of my touchstones. A brilliant blogger with great insights, and one hell of a researcher too. (I still wonder how he came across his discoveries.) And the Lobaczewski book is definitely worth a look. (I was fortunate enough to have lunch with the publisher of the book shortly before it came out.) And I’m glad to see Xymphora is still around too.
Yes, time is running out. They would rather perish with the world than relinquish a single iota of their largesse: it’s not enough that they win, but that other’s lose. As Sadean libertines, part of their pleasure derives from seeing others suffer. As Sade said (also in Juliette):
It almost reads like a Holy Book for them, doesn’t it?
Sit down general strike is still the greatest weapon we have…..
An excellent idea. Worked for Spartacus… until it didn’t.
So what’s the likelihood of it happening anywhere in North America? The society is so atomized and pliable it’s hard to imagine it. And for it to really work the various emergency, security & military professionals would need to join in.
Unfortunately the battlelines between what should be natural allies seem to be calcifying into antagonistic factions rather than dissolving.
Lohmann, Thanks very much for your participation in this thread. As a historian, it’s difficult to read all the books and journal articles I ought to; my in-box is constantly full. Churchill’s book is one that I’ve yet to get but ought to; thanks for the excerpts. My responsibilities to my elders keep me from leaving, but I’ve entertained the thought. Back when I taught, I discussed Libertinism with students and other truths about the Empire we live within, with students always being agog at what they learned. I wonder what they think now.
Its a multifaceted problem.Which method is the best? I think all of them at one time or the other is the way to go.The reason “Revolution” has never worked in the US (since it did work in 1776 and for a while in 1861) is that people have no faith in it.They have no vision of a new US to struggle for.Certainly a handful do.But not the vast masses of people.The potential is there,its just hidden.People are depressed,and its hope of change that stirs Revolutions,not oppression alone.But instead hope that the oppression can be ended.The “leaders” of movements today in the US get subverted,discredited,or if those two don’t work killed.To keep the mirage of “democracy” the elite allow dissent until it reaches their Red Lines then they end it.
Most leaders of dissenting groups come from the middle to upper classes in the US.The elite (deep state however you want to call it) offer them a good moneyed future if they “play ball” and hell if they don’t.Most go along with that.The perks are just “too good” personally for most to not obey.I remember years ago someone asking “why was there no real Revolution in the US” and the answer they got was that people weren’t dissatisfied enough.They always had “hope” that “they” will rise to the top.That “they” will be the one to become a “Bill Gates”.Or even that “they” will be the one to win the lotto.And that “they” will enter the elite themselves.So because of that they throw away their future.And condemn themselves and their families to suffer because of that “American Dream”.Not understanding that for 99.9% of them that is just that, a “dream”.While the social change needed would actually improve their, and their families “real” human lives.But the “dream” World is stronger for them (I believe that is a reason drug use is so strong in the US.It dulls the reality of peoples lives.How many happy people decide to take drugs to escape their “happiness”).
Today most in the US/West fear or hate Putin ,more fear than anything.(yeah,I know some disagree with that.But while things are better.Don’t make the mistake of judging Empire opinion from alternate sites.Its just not truly the mass opinion.The Empire spends billions molding opinion.And they do that because it works.)But there is another strong element there,”respect”.That isn’t contradictory at all. You can respect an opponent,and fear or hate them at the same time.People see Putin as a strong leader,that “actually” works to improve his country,and its peoples future.The shock of that is stunning.A “leader actually working to better his country,unheard of,unthinkable” in the West today.There is a certain thinking that in a “democracy” we don’t want “strong” leaders.The “people must decide,we have Congressmen and elected officials in mass for that”.That’s all hogwash,something you say because it’s “supposed’ to be what you think and feel,but its not.We haven’t stopped being human beings over the last 10,000 years.And the desire for “leadership” is a human trait.From Julius,and Octavian Caesar,Constantine,Charlemagne,Spartacus,to Louis XIV,Elizabeth I,Carlos I,Ivan IV,Peter I,Napoleon I,etc.Those are the people remembered and were followed.In modern times,on the left,Lenin,Stalin,Mao,Fidel Castro,Che,or on the right,Hitler,Mussolini,Franco.Turning to the US,the Presidents and other leaders admired and followed,Washington,Jefferson,Franklin,Lincoln,Teddy Roosevelt ,FDR,JFK,Reagan,MLK,Malcom X.I’m not saying all those people were worthy of being leaders.What I’m saying is they “were” the leaders people followed.And the common trait in all of them was they were considered “strong leaders”, I’m saying they “were” the leaders people followed.
The US doesn’t have a “strong” leader on the horizon today.Obama,betrayed the hopes of millions.Sanders,Clinton,Trump,are all tools of the elite and “false prophets” (maybe Sanders slightly less,but his Zionism makes him open to subversion).The “people” have no leader,and groups of “committee’s” aren’t a replacement for leadership,they just aren’t.Until the times get so bad as to propel a leader forward to offer “hope”, nothing will change.Unless,economic or military disaster force that change.I see as I did previously,2016, as a horrible hate-fest of Russophobia on the campaign trail.And the “election” winner being whichever one can articulate the hate-Russia message the best.To get the most millions (billions) in campaign loot from their elite owners.As a small example,so far in the campaign 176 families have funded half the total expenses of the candidates.Once the campaign gets really going,I suspect a few hundred more of the “fat-cats” will come out from under the rocks.And the ratio will still be the same.A few hundred with half the money donated.That buys a lot of power in a “democracy”.
Lohmann, ‘divide and rule’ is the Overlords’ oldest trick. I remember seeing Chomsky observe that the fanatic partisanship encouraged in followers of sporting teams is designed to train populations for intense group-chauvinism. And with a truly Evil MSM operated by fiends like Murdoch, incessantly fomenting hatred and fear of one group or individual after another, you end up living in a bedlam of inchoate rage and paranoia. The capitalist elite as not just as Evil as human beings exist, they are as Evil as human beings can ever exist. I grew up quite a positivist, imagining human progress towards some spiritual and intellectual perfection, but quickly, upon experience of the varieties of human behaviour, began to realise that that future was radically unlikely, because humanity was controlled by creatures who preferred power, wealth and the exercise of dominance over others, to self-realisation as moral and spiritual beings. And, now, when I survey Western elites, that type is all I see,
Wow, UB1, that’s a lot to respond to. Doing so adequately, even in summary form, would easily come to thousands of words (if not fill whole books).
Let me just make one observation. What’s astonishing to me is that polls consistently show the public doesn’t trust the media: they know they’re being lied to, yet they continue to believe the lies. That’s because critical thinking is a threat not only to the elite, but to the public’s own worldview. “Faith is believing what you know ain’t so,” as Twain put it. Ignorance provides an epistemelogical carapace of safety and security to these people; ignorance is also easy, because opening your mind and thinking for yourself requires some effort, as well as risking alienating one from their community. People want to belong, especially in a society increasingly riven along lines of “self-identity”. (Identity politics is a brilliant divide-and-conquer strategy.)
I think the possibility of a real revolution in Murka is close to nill. Americans are quite thoroughly brainwashed, and could be made to easily ride a people mover to the gas chambers if the passageway was cheerful and lined with big screen TVs playing their favorite shows.
Quds force will be in the field shortly. ISIS is being scrambled into cauldrons.
One of Russia’s military strengths is airlift capacity. I think there will be a massive display of this shortly, bringing thousands of troops from Iran to the battlefield.
The Syrian Army is too weak to do everything. The TOW missiles are holding them back and costing them tanks.
Iran has to put its mark on this rout of ISIS and liberation of Syria from the US and its terrorist proxies.
I think that the plan of wiping out or co-opting the Syrian rebels first has a deeper reasoning beyond clearing the areas near the Russian bases and defeating Assad’s enemies. With the rebels defeated and gone from the battlefield there will only be ISIS left (AQ units too). That is the time China might come in, SCO might come in. When it is clearly just ISIS terror to fight, then the dynamics changes.
This is why the US is crying so loudly. No rebels, no US reasons to stay.
The next 2-4 weeks should change the battlefield of Syria.
And we may see something in Ukraine work that way eventually. If the regular Ukie army cleared out and left only the fascist nazis then anti-terror war could wipe them out.
Dont worry about the Syrian army being too weak. Now that Putin is supplying the aircover they have a huge boost in moral and will do just fine. Its the military planning that will undo the head coppers and it will only take another two weeks before the Syrian army has them on the choker lease.
Its going to be great watching the plan unfold.
thank you all for your analisys i’ve learned a lot fast on these posts and comments!
1. Syrian Army liberated town Ashtan and closing the terrorists fighters in a cauldron.
Did someone said Debaltsevo? Video-Map
МОЛНИЯ: Сирийская армия освободила от террористов город Атшан и замыкает ИГИЛ в котле (ВИДЕО+КАРТА)
2. Russian Military Humor: Pills for Russophobia
3. Syria: Battle for Daria rages as Syrian Army pushes forward . Video of the women fighters
Comment: “Those who emigrate are almost 100% anti-Assad, including both those who go west and those (big majority) that stay in refugee camps near borders. Those refugee camps are practically military bases and recruitment centers for anti-Assad militias. And most of those that now come to Europe aren’t directly coming from Syria but from those camps (probably got bored and want our free money in west). For all those in Syria on Assad territory there is really no way to get out (one side sea, other side countless militant groups), but all those that were against Assad already left, so that little territory that holds 40-50% population of Syria is almost totally pro-Assad.”
4. How Assad And The Kurds Are Teaming Up Against ISIS
Looks like the terrorists caught in Moscow were trained by the Islamic State thugs:
According to some sites 15 caught altogether. 12 Chechens and 3 Syrians. I wonder if A Carter’s words were the nod? But Moscow was ready.
You worry to much. Russia will be fine. Go Russia
About russian boots on the ground i give you a key word: KADYROV!
Another? Arseny Pavlov
And just two more: Polite men.
Slava Vladimir Vladimirovich!
Should be “Slava Vladimiru Vladimirovichu !” (Requires a dative: “Glory to …”. )
article here explains the situation/one angle re claims of rus volunteers in Syria
I think many of us (if not all) are exaggerating the Imperial capacity to counter the latest Russian masterstroke.
First of all, if Putin thought that the AZ Empire could easily throw a spanner to the latest Russian move, then why would he have taken such a bold move?
Secondly, even if we accept that many lunatics and airheads are present in the Western capitals, we still cannot deny the inevitable fact that some of them are quite intelligent and pragmatic. They may not appear on the propaganda networks (why would the real decision makers participate in cheap theatrics?) or the prostitute think-tanks or on Capitol Hill, but they sure as hell exist and take the decisions behind hermetically closed doors.
Third, even if the US decides to escalate in any number of ways (which is well within their power) don’t you think that Russia has already ready-made countermeasures? Especially against the Turks (Kurdish card) against the Saudis (Houthi card) and against Israel (Hezbollah-Hamas cards) Clearly, an escalation on the part of the Empire, puts itself in grave risk.
Fourth. US (and Western in general) politics are an infantile circus and everyone is fully aware of this. Can we take anything of what they say seriously? Each and every politician/MP/Senator/candidate/commentator/analyst/journalist etc is trying to score cheap personal career points out of every single (even the most minor) issue. Let alone an ABSOLUTELY COLOSSAL such as this one.
Fifth. The Mighty US Empire did not dare (directly) attack the SAA in almost 5 years in any meaningful sense, even with only implicit Russian support and presence. Will they do it now with Russia officially on the ground, Iraq and Iran officially in the alliance, and China calmly but firmly in the wings and in reserve?
Sixth. Some US allies seem to be breaking ranks: Long-standing US ally Egypt has come out to publicly endorse the Russian intervention! Even some Euro-land countries have hinted that Russia and even Assad must be taken into account in a political solution. In descending order: Germany, Spain, Austria and Czech R. Even Juncker, has come out publicly, calling for an independent EU policy in relation to Russia. Also, the recent attacks on German industrial interests as well as the refugee issue, is yet another indication of serious cracks within the Western alliance.
Now, do not get me wrong. Any kind of game can be at play here, and I agree with the Saker that the situation between US and RUS aircraft over Syria is extremely dangerous. I just wanted to make the argument for the optimistic side. Also, something tells me that military personnel on both sides would be more than eager to avoid any accidents. I think we can be certain of that.
thanks Stavros, hope you’re right.
Also, if advanced weaponry suddenly appears in the hands of ISIS/FSA/Al Nusra, wouldn’t the NATO cover over their direct support for lunatic jihadism be demonstrated to the entire planet? Wouldn’t that also destroy any hope they ever had for rapprochement with Iran? Wouldn’t that also allow Russia to escalate against the Empire on any number of fronts?
Maybe they will do things like remove IRGC General Hossein Hamedani near Aleppo and Hezbollah commander Hajj Hussein al-Maher in Idlib.
Yes, be an optimist, but still wear your flack jacket and helmet. I would like to be optimistic too, but what I’ve learned over the years doesn’t allow that anymore. The depth of indoctrination being done within the Outlaw Empire is staggering. And if you challenge it by trying to teach the truth you get fired and blacklisted like me.
For me, the wild card is Europeans regaining their independence and totally throwing off the Outlaw Empire’s yolk, dissolving NATO and EU, ejecting all foreign military forces. Yes, it’s not very likely given Eastern Europe. But if the EU governments approve TTIP over the massive protests of their citizens, then I think the revolt will be on led by France’s le Pen. True conservatives can be very liberating–look at de Gaulle.
What is more and more apparent with each passing day is that the ruling elites in the West are growing ever more evil and psychopathic.This seems to be in reaction to the dawning understanding that the global neo-liberal economic order, and with it, Western global dominance is crumbling, hence triggering a general panic amongst these ruling castes and tribes. The Western elites have plainly decided to destroy ALL global resistance to Western rule, in order to secure the West as a redoubt while the rest of the planet pays the price, a form of neo-imperialism on steroids. Hence the economic warfare being prosecuted against the ‘Emerging Economies’, accompanied, as ever, by the sort of subversion by local compradores that will shortly return Brazil to the Empire’s camp.
And, as a result of the unnatural selection that operates in the Western elite, where Thought Crime, or dissent of any kind, is totally anathematised, the quality of the elite is growing ever lower. ‘Yes-men’ are rarely an intellectual or moral elite. A brief scrutiny of the Western MSM shows the process in action. The content is, these days, almost uniformly and often grotesquely propagandistic. Untruths and misrepresentations are never retracted, and indeed they are repeated endlessly, no matter how often refuted, and no matter how utterly unbelievable they are. Political leaders are uniformly psychotic, with ‘charming’ types like Blair or Obama somewhat less represented than the more florid specimens like Carter, Clinton, Cheney and so many others as to beggar belief.
Moreover Western societies are clearly moribund. Inequality is burgeoning. Work is ever more poorly rewarded, precarious, humiliating and sordid. The richest Western power of all, the USA, refuses to provide basic human decencies like health-care, decent education and public safety for tens of millions of its ‘citizens’, while imprisoning more people than any country, 100,000 in the living death of solitary confinement. Yet this monstrous entity, the most aggressive invader, subverter, sanctioner and destroyer of life in all history, feverishly screeches its moral perfection, day after day, and DEMANDS that all other societies follow its example. If Putin can steer the world away from the rule of this psychopathic dystopia and its diabolical elite, and the global collaborator caste with its despotic hegemony, without a thermo-nuclear catastrophe, he will go down in history as one of the greatest, and luckiest, figures of all time.
” If Putin can steer the world away from the rule of this psychopathic dystopia and its diabolical elite, (..) he will go down in history as one of the greatest, and luckiest, figures of all time. ”
Putin already is one of the greatest. Because it is the effort that counts and not the result.
The timing of the Syria surprise was splendid – the Lattakia landing occurred about ten days before the 70. UN summit, when the Orks very busy organizing another dreck-fest. The choice of adversary – not a nation state, but a mercenary-army sponsored by shady global mafias – was pure genius. THE game-changer.
Can this battle be won? Wrong question. All we can say is: This battle has to be fought. Against all odds, if needed. Why? Because we are humans, homo sapiens sapiens. We owe it to ourselves. This is our spirit. And this is our freedom.
To see a statesman (and not a guru) nudge us on – this hasn’t happened for decades, if not centuries.
Couldn’t agree with you more on all you said. The way I see it this could end in one of two ways. Either the teetering economy of the US finally crashes when the dollar loses its reserve currency status, which I believe the Chinese, Russians and other BRIC countries are actively working on and which would probably be the best option all round as it will deprive America of its ability to wage wars or, watching their economy about to go down the drain the crazies in Washington might be tempted to do something utterly stupid (I wouldn’t exactly call them imaginative or original in their thinking) and trigger a global confrontation.
I really couldn’t believe these s*** for brains really believed they were the only ones with a cruise missile capability and were totally shocked by Russias demonstration of this capability to the extent they had to pull out their aircraft carrier from the region. This goes to show that they base their plans and actions on completely false data and assumptions. This always carries a big risk of a serious miscalculation on the part of these morons.
The behemoth Hegemon cannot move.
Like a machine that only runs over things and crushes them, it is stuck with nothing more to destroy because it is out of gas, its oil is gone, it’s a smoking heap.
The Hegemon is on a long death journey of its own.
All the rest of the world has to do is not be close when it topples onto its side and expires.
Ex-MI-6 Agent on Russia in Syria (rare logical and unbiased POV):
Russia’s Aim in Syria Is to Strategically Defeat ISIS and Al Qaeda
Read the battle between the commentators
This guy is obviously intelligent and he knows what he is talking about. He is basically telling the western “intelligence community” and policymakers one thing: “Hey, you have to know when you are beaten”.
Also, Ian Bremmer, who despite his juvenile style, is quite intelligent, has conceded that Putin’s latest move in Syria is quote: “brilliant”.
Another great way to transfer reinforcements to the battle zone is by ordinary cargo ships.
Just saying. …
More of the Russian Military Humor
Syria – Everything you need to know about the Middle East today.
funniest video yet – needs to watched more than once
Nutty’s nightmares return.
New Intifada Has Begun against Israel: Hamas
October 10, 2015 – 19:06
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Representative of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement in Tehran Khaled Qadoumi said a new Palestinian Intifada (uprising) against Israeli oppression has just begun.
“Today, people in Palestine from all (social) strata – old or young, male or female – have risen up, and the resistance forces in Hamas and Islamic Jihad are on the frontline of this Intifada,” Qadoumi told the Tasnim News Agency on Saturday.
The Hamas envoy stressed that the Palestinian people are faithful to their country, announcing that the “Third Intifada” has already begun.
Only on Friday, eight Palestinians were martyred, he stated, reiterating that “this is an Intifada”.
Poles are revolting (!), and bolting.
Poland Eager to Boost Economic Ties with Iran
October 10, 2015 – 15:37
TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Chairman of Poland’s Senate Bogdan Borusewicz voiced his country’s willingness to promote economic cooperation with Iran.
Speaking at a joint press conference with Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani in Tehran on Saturday, Borusewicz said Poland is keen to strengthen economic ties with Iran.
He said the plans for closer trade ties between Tehran and Warsaw are set against a backdrop of ample opportunities for economic partnership.
Thanks Saker, nice to read your writing again after all this time.
Thanks for this report, gathers a lot of info together.
Recent positive news that the zionazis #1 colony was ending it’s training of “moderate” terrorists probably can be attributed the success of the Russians in Syria. The zio-pindo queens don’t want risk their death squad trainers to Russian air strike. Pity, the planet needs dead ZPC/NWO war criminals a lot ore than it needs them in their current existential state.
Removal of this training op reduces Israeli-American action options and their propaganda potential. Looks like zionazia is buggering off on their obvious connections to their “Muslim” proxy army and headed back into deep cover.
Ending the training program is no more than ending the farce of only giving weapons to moderate rebels.
Now they will simply be giving weapons to “vetted” commanders.
Basically doing away with the bullshit and arming AQ directly.
I think it is an open invitation by usa for anyone to apply for armaments to attack rus….VP said they were ready for this kind of thing.
Military experts from Europe & USA were also shocked that Russians can mount long range cruise missiles on 6 times smaller ship than those in possesion of NATO.
Russians can achive same results with much more smaller military budget.
I also recommend reading this:
Read teh linked article.
The USA’s intentions are clear. They are illegal under the UN charter.
I still don’t get why Syria’s ambassador to the UN doesn’t stand up and protest the open interefrence of the USA in his country.
What about a vote of the GA concerning this illegal armed aggression? What am i missing here?
Why aren’t these expressed American intentions seen as de facto and a priori evidence of the intent to commit crimes, and teh next card is “Go Straight to The Hague”?
You are right there.The Syrian UN reps should make that speech.I’m not sure on the GA vote though.The Empire has bought enough votes that might not work.But getting it on the “record” that Syria directly and publicly accuses the US and its stooges of breaking the UN Charter and committing War crimes in violation of International Law. And violating the most important of the UN Rules is very important.The Syrians have enough information,just from the US’s own statements to validate those charges alone.And thats only the tip of the iceberg of evidence I’m sure they have.Nothing will be done about it at present.But it would be a good information warfare move.And to keep on the back burner for the future.
I would assume the Russian warships off the coast of Syria have the ability to enforce a no fly zone over the whole of Syria.
Not very large area- 500 km by 500 km
we will have to wait a long time until the anger dies down, that is until someone in congress with at least half a brain to admit that there has been some massive mistakes made by both government and military hothead factions who allowed themselves to be manipulated by the dark cabal of the elite, the Russians have taken charge, because it was obvious everyone that it was completely out of control, the cards were already shown that there was a sense urgency on the part of the cabal to implement the NEW WORLD ORDER program, this was since the visit of the SATANIC BLACK POPE, a lot of us may not see it yet but it is all connected.
OT The land of democracy and not so free speech. The independent media will be in the crosshairs very soon?
……..In a ruling publishing on Monday, Ofcom said the channel – previously called Russia Today – had breached the broadcasting code four times across three programmes.
The programmes include two episodes of the channel’s Truthseeker series, including one which alleged that the BBC had staged a chemical weapons attack by the Assad regime in Syria……
…An Ofcom spokesperson said: “Ofcom found that RT broadcast content that was either materially misleading or not duly impartial. These are significant failings and we are therefore requiring RT to broadcast two clear statements on our decision which correct these failures.”…..
I think RT hass also previously found examples of BBC misinformation……!
Imagine Russian soldiers having to fight these gals errrr…guys?
U.S. soldiers wear red high heels. NO kidding. Enjoy!
Carmel by the Sea
Interview of Vladimir Putin to Rossiya-1 TV Channel:
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday that he ruled out possibility of the Russian Armed Forces’ participation in ground operations in Syria.
“This is out of question,” Putin told Rossiya-1 TV channel in an interview, answering a question on Russia taking part in ground operation in Syria. “Whatever happens, we’re not going to do this, and our Syrian friends know about it.”
Putin also said that Syria operation was well-planned beforehead, it was not some spontaneous action. Russia had conducted aerial, space reconnaisance before launching Syrian operation, the president added.
“We have continuously carried out aerial and space reconnaissance, comparing the data we obtained from different sources, and the specialists from the General Staff… in coordination with their partners established, as you know, the Information Center in Baghdad.”
Moscow notified its Western partners of the Russian anti-Islamic State operation in Syria beforehand, Russian President Vladimir Putin said.
“We warned our partners — in the United States, many other partners, especially in the region [of the Middle East] — about our intentions, our plans. Someone says that we did it too late, but I want to draw your attention to the fact that nobody ever warns us about planning operations of this kind.”
VLADIVOSTOK, October 11. /TASS/. Russia has announced beginning of the mission in Syria of courtesy and reason, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with Rossiya-1 television broadcaster on Sunday.
“We have never ever been notified of similar missions, but we have chosen to do so. Of courtesy and reason, of the intention to demonstrate we are open for joint efforts,” he said.
“The easiest option would be to join our efforts and thus to legalise own actions in the Syrian territory, as since we have a mandate from the official authorities, the easiest would be to join us and to work under that mandate,” he said. “But, if you know better than we the situation in the territory – you have been there for over a year, illegally, but still there, so if you know better, which I doubt, but still, then why not give targets to us, we shall work on them.”
“They refused. Said: no, we are not going to work at that level. I wonder why; if they, really, know better and want to fight terrorism, then give the places to us where the terrorists are sheltering, where their command centres are, their ammunition depots, weapons and equipment. Give the targets to us, what can be easier? But as yet, unfortunately, we have not approached that level of cooperation. But, once again, the first steps in establishment of contacts at the military level have been made already,” the president said.
Even RT interviewed ex usa head of military intelligence who said there should be cohesive action against IS……wonder if Saker knew him……but I think it is better for Rus to be independant of usa
The Syrian Armed forces appear to have started using their TOS-1A MLRS flame thrower systems.
The following article linking to these videos has an amusing photograph at the end. It shows what appears to be a pile of human hair found near the Turkish border.. The article claims this the the result of ISIS militants shaving off their beards before they hop over the border into Turkey.
Dear The Saker,
Thank you very much for posting this. I agree we are living in very dangerous times.
What earmarks this so clearly is the absolute propoganda war going on in MSM and social media. It is ceaseless. Everything Russia does is trashed/lied about/threatened. It is article after article. Tweet after tweet. We have seen this week not one but two press conferences by Maria Zakarova, the spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry – questioning the bbc, nyt, cnn etc. for the baseless stories in their press. Not backed up by facts or main sources. Not quoting the Russian side.
I watched “In the Now” on RT today and they interviewed Ken Roth & when he was asked about his sources for Assad barrel bombing hospitals the only thing he could mention was HRW. I am sure by now we all know this is a Soros organisation (along with their white helmets in Syria). This is what we are all going to have to deal with – do we allow this war propaganda? or do we fight it and get the truth out? (They have billions – we have volunteers on lots of independent sites).
An example of the propoganda war being waged in Germany:
A couple of stories today which ties in with your article.
Turkey complaining of Syrian air force harrassing them – well it is the Syrian’s country to defend – isn’t it?:
Meanwhile they attack PKK with air strikes in Iraq:
The UK threatening to take Russian warplanes down in Iraq:
Russia and the sane world are dealing with a group of lawless countries led by the biggest bully – the USA. That is frightening. They are out of control.
A potentially positive story – if it can be confirmed is the fate of Baghdadi – have they finally got him? Is their intelligence centre working in Baghdad:
And finally what the West has so desperately wanted all along – this article highlights that “Economists are now warning of a global financial crisis coming nearer which can only be prevented by a military conflict. It could be the ongoing Syrian conflict which involves all world powers”.
War, war, war…………that’s what they want.
What if all potential conscripts decided to flee their countries and go to other countries as refugees or migrants or what have you—maybe to African countries, for example—a la many young Syrian men dodging service in the Syrian Army.
Then maybe they couldn’t put on the war and we would just have to have the world financial meltdown instead. . . .
True Katherine – but will that happen?
The Saker, it looks like the result on the bombing of Bagdhadi was injury. The Iraqi intel isn’t as good:
And a UK journalist questioning why is Washington refusing to help with intelligence:
Also follow up to my earlier post – the UK military attache in Moscow has been summouned for an explanation and a note given:
Veritas, the Western dystopias have long ago purged all but Groupthinking, Newspeaking, robopaths from politics, business and the MSM. The type left, the Imperial loyalist, Zionazi-adoring, psychopaths, are psychologically very unstable. Being defeated in their eternal war of ‘Full Spectrum Dominance’ against their Eternal Enemy, other people (including one another when necessary)will drive them to excesses of aggression and destruction. It’s the ONLY way they know how to act. Just think of how the Israelis have treated the Palestinians for seventy years. Total brutality, absolute refusal to compromise or treat the Palestinians as human beings, utter depravity in mass murder, torture and imprisonment and a relentless campaign in the Zionazi controlled Western MSM to paint the Palestinians as insects. That is how the ‘Exceptionalists’ think and act. Will they change? Can they change? No.
The latest I heard was they missed him.Got some other ISIS leaders but not the “big fish”.
It all depends how many ‘al-Baghdadis’ they trained up at Camp Bucca, the Jihadists’ College. They kept a few ‘Osamas’ after the real one’s death, after all.
The Syria-Hezbollah-Iraq-Iran coordination center in Baghdad was another brilliant idea by the Russians.
Suddenly, the Iraqi army has reliable Satellite data (and probably a little help by polite green men) to target ISIS in North-western Iraq and they have made good use of it in the last couple of days.
The latest article from ZeroHedge – Blommberg for Punks, as I cal it – looks like bullshit to me but is still indicative of the mood swing that has gripped the whole Middle East.
from……. zweistein on October 11, 2015 · at 2:40 pm UTC
“the Iraqi army has reliable Satellite data”
Absolutely!,I would only add one word!
“the Iraqi army now has reliable Satellite data”
‘nuf said’ …….a good point thanks.
“The Syrian Armed forces appear to have started using their TOS-1A MLRS flame thrower systems.”
Interesting that in one of the vids we can see some soldiers in light desert camo and they are darker skinned than syrians usually are. Then at about 4:30 I saw the flag patch on one of the soldiers right arm and it is the iraqi flag, not the sryian one.
I think they r some of those Shia iraqi volunteers who appear to be showing up in Syria in larger numbers in the past few months.
Stavros H wrote:
“I think many of us (if not all) are exaggerating the Imperial capacity to counter the latest Russian masterstroke.”
I fully agree with you Stavros. Very good points.
To your 5th point i’d add that for all the pestering, pushing and shoving of the zionist 5th column – which largely controls US foreign policy in the mid east – the Empire did not dare attack Iran either.
We need to remember this is the same “invincible” empire which got bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq, fighting against a few thousand lightly armed insurgents, mostly unsupported by external powers.
By 2008 the msm brit media reported the US led coalition had lost control, in total or in part, of more than half of afghanistan to the taliban.
Risks exist, of course, but at some point those like Putin, who want a multipolar world(as opposed to zio-american hegemonic power), respect for international law, have to draw the line in the sand and make a stand.
Better do it now than at a point when all other nations have been brought into the empires fold. Then, it just might be too late.
It’s redundant to say so, but Putin is a great man. Not only he has the right world view, he also chooses his timing absolutely perfectly. His Syrian moves occur at lightning speed when:
1. Iran’s nuclear deal is done -> Iran will be able to help Syria on the ground.
2. Quiet (relatively speaking) achieved on Donbass
3. Massive refugee wave flooding Europe, causing widespread fear and loathing in Europe, throwing into doubt in the populace the wisdom of their leaders, and rightly so!
4. UNGA being held where he’s able to explain to the world how the situation is no longer tolerable and needs change.
Thus, he couldn’t have chosen a better time to make this move!
It appears from the news reports that the Taliban are getting even more dangerous.I wouldn’t be surprised to see the US/NATO sending massive numbers of troops back there in this next year.Which might be a good thing.Give them something to keep them busy with, instead of tormenting Russia and China all the time.And making their incompetence even clearer to the World.
…”loud emissions of hot air”. How appropriate of a description! NATO, the West the US, all the same emission!
It’s funny to look at that witch clarissa ward’s twitter feed. nothing but anti-putin, anti-russia, sob4terrorist crap.
She and cristianne amonpour are a disgrace
Zionazi-owned property ensuring their employment, that’s all.
And the awesome ‘Pussy Riot’ ? Have they gone out of business just like that? Canonical Media Whores to the hilt.
Nussiminen, no doubt Pussy Riot could put their considerable thespian talents, as seen in an embarrassing episode of the once quite good ‘House of Cards’,to good effect in the, ahem-‘adult movie industry’. I’m sure that there must be a sub-set of connoisseurs of acts involving frozen chickens etc.
Trying to read between your lines, Saker, has become an interesting pastime activity, from time to time. Sometimes I can make much sense of what you say, at other times I cannot make much sense at all, unless I complete the analysis with respect to some disguised or veiled purpose.
Your earlier writings and thoughts ( I have been reading you for many years ), displayed amazing boldness and straightforward talk, devoid of the mandatory practice of couching every argument into a shape, such that it may qualify and pierce the filter into the various main stream press and media outlets.
As your readership expanded and multiplied into a cohort of pupils, zealots, students and devotees – a direct function of contemporary and past/recent geopolitics, but also due to the initial forthright approach (in my opinion) – the nature of the content also underwent an evolution to perhaps, maximise the acceptance of all “proselytes”.
The unequivocal, guileless and up-front analysis’ of the past – the very reason I began reading your writings – have, from my point of view, evolved into a typical format, a humdrum pattern, lacking the dynamics of the blog in its cradle.
When Russia is about to make a bold move, you often call it unrealistic, and unprobable.
When Russia has made the bold move, you call it potentially disastrous or ill-fated.
Time and again, you also underestimate the ability of the Russian Federation to act to enforce its own security, as well as defending its allies.
Maybe living in America does indeed make people soft.
Indecisiveness, the indisposition to defend its interests – domestic and abroad – lacking the foresight of emergency, the wavering and waffling of allies with common interests, to uphold international law, is in and of itself, encouraging the set of arsonists to inflame anything up for grabs.
For every new generation of psychopaths entering the scene, the aggregate data, supporting the rejection of passivity, grows in logical substance.
David what a boring thing for you to say…why do you bother coming then ? Just so you can talk in a superior fashion to all us newbies ? We don’t need you here and won’t miss you if you leave.
First, I appreciate your honest critique of my work. God knows I am not perfect in any way and that a good kick in the butt can be helpful to me :-) There are a few things I would like to reply to though.
the nature of the content also underwent an evolution to perhaps, maximise the acceptance of all “proselytes”.
Think about it – if my intention was to make myself popular, I would jump on every rumor and predict that Russia will single handedly defeat the entire Empire in less than a year. Except that, in reality, why I did is the UNpopular thing: I sounded an alarm and encouraged caution. Do you think that doing so made me more or less “popular”? Here is your own reply:
When Russia is about to make a bold move, you often call it unrealistic, and unprobable. When Russia has made the bold move, you call it potentially disastrous or ill-fated.
David, look at where the US got itself with the self-delusion of being almighty! I don’t want Russia to repeat the same mistake. I also know that underestimating the Empire is extremely dangerous. Do you remember that in the 19th century Marx already predicted the fall of the British Empire and look were we are today: it is still here, though it has morphed into a US-Israeli AngloZionist one. People have been predicting the imminent fall of that Empire for, literally, over 100 years, only to find out that it actually did adapt to new circumstances.
Look, in intelligence process goes through what is called the “three As”: acquisition, analysis and acceptance. The first one is “getting the data/info”. The second one means making sense of it and presenting it to your “client” (in this case: all of you). The third one is always overlooked: acceptance by the “client” – i.e., the willingness to hear a negative or disappointing analysis. This is the part which YOU (collective “you”) must do (or refuse to do).
I have been called a Putin fanboy (which is true) and a paid Putin agent (alas, not true). But in reality what I have ALWAYS aimed to do is to present YOU (collective “you”) with my very best analysis. Period. I am not trying to make myself popular, look at all the groups I have offended and pissed off: Nazis, Zionists, Papists, Wahabis, homosexuals, (some) Orthodox Christians (Sergianists, modernists and extremist zealots), laissez-faire capitalists, gun control freaks, Russian “hurray patriots”, supporters of the French National Front, feminists, defenders of the “Western civilization”, French “Charlies”, believers in the official 911 fairytale, racists, Islam haters, Hamas and Fatah supporters, etc. etc. etc. etc.
Do you REALLY believe that I am trying to ingratiate myself to somebody here?!
Please believe me that I am 100% pro-Russia and pro-Putin. But that does not make me blind or naively optimistic. There are A LOT of risks in the strategy chosen in Syria and while I do, at the end of the day, trust Putin, that kind of trust is no basis for sound analysis.
Analysis must be fact-based, not faith-based.
Recently we saw a lot of very poor pseudo-analysis about the Russian intervention in Syria. I was RIGHT to casts doubt on shitty analyses backed by shitty sources. Then, Russia did intervene, but in a much more complex manner than anybody (including myself) had predicted. Was I wrong to cast doubt these shitty analyses backed by shitty sources? Heck no! At least not in my opinion. I saw bullshit and I called it. Now I am ABSOLUTELY DELIGHTED that Russia did something much more complex and refined that anybody (including myself) had predicted. But I am not “paid” (by you, collective you, the readers who ‘pay’ in reading and, of course, those who support the blog with donations) to cheer every rumor which makes Russia look good.
I might be a Putin-fanbody, but I am not ‘paid’ to be a Putin cheerleader.
Maybe living in America does indeed make people soft.
You mean like Sayyid Qutb, Saint Patriarch Tikhon or Leon Trotsky? :-)
Dear David, if living in the USA had made me ‘soft’ I would have joined the crowd of those who want me to write stuff that makes them happy. My idea of, well, maybe not ‘hard’ but, at least, ‘sharp’ it to COMPLETELY IGNORE the “acceptance” part of the three “As” of intelligence. I do the best I can, in the most honest and professional way I can, and then I submit it to you with no strings (or expectations) attached.
For every new generation of psychopaths entering the scene, the aggregate data, supporting the rejection of passivity, grows in logical substance.
If you really think that my caution is a form of softness or passivity then you really misread me and the purpose of this blog. You probably know that it is a well-known problem with despots and dictators when the gradually surround themselves with only those kind of advisors who enthusiastically agree with everything the despot wants to hear and with everything the despot says. My question to you is simple: do you want to turn into a “despotic reader” – somebody who will come to this blog to hear his views supported, his ideas vindicated and his hopes affirmed? Or do you prefer to come here, get what I hope is an honest, if generally cautious, analysis which you can then either accept or reject?
At the end of the day, this blog is like a AA meeting: you come here to “listen” (read) and then you take what you want back with you and you leave the rest. That is your decision and I leave you the choice. My job is to try to present to you the truth as best as I can distinguish it. Even when that truth is cautious or, worse, unpleasant.
At the end of the day it is your decision, dear David. I offer my ‘product’ (the blog) in a highly competitive environment. There are tons of blogs out there who will tell you that Putin will kick ass, that nobody dares to fuck with Almighty Russia, that Obama and his Empire are beat and dead. There are also tons of blogs who will tell you that Putin is just a pawn of the NWO, that he has sold out Novorussia, that Russian oligarchs run the show and that the Russian intervention in Syria will end up in a humiliating disaster. Use your own instincts and common sense to pick and chose between all those “offers” and see which ones “serve” you best, especially in the long run.
Wow, the rumors are true then. You do read every post. You’re amazing.
It’s becoming routine now: Putin lecturing stupid western MSM journalist again. My only fear is that after a few more of this, they won’t be asking any more stupid questions and we won’t see more of his brilliant lectures!
Doubtful,they keep hoping he’ll slip up and say something they can use against him.If that doesn’t work they “edit” his words.Leaving out something in his words.Or mistranslating them,something ,to earn their pay.
What right has turkey to whine about Russian a/c “crossing their airspace”. The lands in question were stolen off Syria in the first place. Each time turkey invaded Syrian airspace it was to murder Syrians and destroy military infrastructure.
Israel has done the same along with the USA. Many times.
I do not need to comment on the mentally ill people with no sense of proportion.
MoonofAlabam supports you on this:
Saker, your discussion of “force multiplication” seems- to me anyway- to be quite brilliant and you are surely right in counseling caution. People commenting on your articles tend to be astute but, even here, there is way too much happy gas about the Russians establishing their own “no fly” zone, American stupefaction at Russian speed and efficiency and so on.While it’s hard to imagine a direct attack on the Russians, predictions of a major influx of Iranian ground forces make me decidedly nervous. The empire will be looking for some plausible pretext to look tough without quite entering the zone of acute danger from a direct clash with the Russians. And who knows, especially in view of internal turbulencem what the Turks and Saudis might do.
When I retired in 2011, I started posting on geopolitical issues such as the Greek predicament
and the situation in Lebanon. When fighting began in Syria I hoped the Russians might send marines and S-300’s to Tartus and spent half a day pouring over satellite images to get a notion of the geography thereabout. But like everyone else I was astonished at the appearance of combat aircraft and at the extraordinary speed and efficiency of the Russian build up.
My sense of the situation in Northwest Syria is that while some military forces disintegrate rapidly-like ARVIN after did it’s defeat in the central highlands or the UA forces in the Denalsevo pocket did- once they begin to ‘go’. But-in part because they do not have a single integrated command- it’s not likely that al-Nusra, et al, will. They seem more likely to ‘go to ground’-, adapting by dispersing and tunneling in. This opens the question of whether the SAA has enough left to dig them out in a series of slogging positional sieges. Certainly, Hezbollah-carrying a major share of the fight from a limited population base–is already seriously stretched.
If the “joint effort” can clean out the northwest corner of Syria rapidly perhaps the allies have a chance of stampeding the enemy and avoiding a quagmire.. But the more time they take doing it the more time ISIS and other enemy units have to dig in and acquire manpads and other modern weapons from the Saudis,Turks and so on.There is no shortage of tough Iranians but one can be pretty sure that the (presumed) taboo against killing Russians doesn’t apply to them. Anything beyond careful infiltration is apt to bring an American reaction.
It is a great pity that Putin has disavowed involvement of ground forces. An air mobile mountain brigade plus a mechanized contingent (especially if T-90’s really are resistant to TOW) could probably create the rout or near rout needed to truncate the campaign.
There are two major factors, aside from the terrible danger of war between nuclear powers, inhibiting Washington from dramatic responses:
(A) The US public stopped a bombing campaign against Syria with a tsunami of e-mails, calls,letters to Congress. The British House of Commons reacted to a similar uproar. If people were outraged at the notion of attacking Syria, how would we react to facing off with the Russians? We Americans may be dumb but we’re not that dumb.
(B) The Europeans, have suffered enough from obeying Washington.The torrent of refugees has been, I think, the last straw. No-one, least of all the Germans, want trouble with the Russians at Washington’s behest.NATO bureaucrats rant and gibber in search of raison d’etre, but they are more likely to be laying the eggs of NATO’s eventual disintegration than its growth.
The way to turn European aversion to further trouble with Russia into an hardened wall would be for Russia and Iran to tighten their alliance, If Russia not only not only supplied Iran (belatedly)with S-300 or S-400 AA, but stationed interceptors (MIg 31’s maybe) and other potent Russian manned equipment in Iran.it would serve to disabuse all and sundry of the view that the Americans could keep oil flowing through the strait of Hormuz or protect oil and gas refineries and loading installations.
There is another way that I shall not get into just now except to mention that I first thought of it long before the public ever heard of EMP’s when we were still called it the Compton Effect.
All the Saudis,the Gulf states and their customers need to grasp, without anyone openly threatening, is that if Iran and its allies are pushed to the wall, the transport of oil and gas stops, maybe briefly, maybe for quite a long time.
Hello, no time to check if the following was already posted, just FYI:
Moscow Demands Britain Explain “Green Light To Shoot Down Russian Jets” http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-11/moscow-demands-britain-explain-green-light-shoot-down-russian-jets
Martin, Pig Molester Hameron is not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Talking big with other people’s lives(how long would the UK jets last?)at stake is typical of the type. The English ruling caste is pretty much in full decline, due to in-breeding and too much self-indulgence, to be of any but comic interest these days.
I think that was a propaganda ploy to appear “tough”.Like Abbot’s threat to “shirtfront” Putin.The key to the statement was “if” the British planes were in danger or under attack by the Russian planes.Since as we know (and the British know),Russia has no intention of attacking British planes that was a meaningless statement.Though from our side it did some good.It make the British look like war mongers and idiots.And gave Russia some good propaganda points to attack them with.
I posted it earlier and here is the UK MOD’s response:
They are denying it – but Murdoch and MSM always have these “unidentified” sources – don’t they. All part of the massive propoganda war……..The Russian jets would make mince meat of the RAF’s.
The Syrian Army’s armor has been taking heavy losses in its offensive due to the rebels’ use of TOW missiles. These missiles are being supplied by the Saudis, who ordered over 13,000 of them in 2013 and began receiving them this year.
Putin and Lavrov met today in Socchi with the Saudi defense minister. Hopefully Putin had a ‘Saudi card’ to play. The Saudis are playing a dangerous game supplying these missiles to extremists and apparently have enough to feed insurgents/extremists all over the MENA for some time to come.
I’m sure this is not ‘news’ to Putin, but wonder how he is dealing with it.
***this first paragraph is yesterday’s news. today might be better – mod aa
Saker, thanks for the write up.
Can you comment on TOW, made by US, doing a lot damage to SAA’s tanks? There is a write up on it in Washington post ( I hope Mod leave the link intact):
“Did U.S. weapons supplied to Syrian rebels draw Russia into the conflict?”
It surprises me how easy it seems to continue to smuggle these weapons in in large numbers. Putin has to get the boarders sealed off to stop these weapons and fighters getting in.
The Head Choppers seem to be a hard nut to crack. Even with all the bombing I see theyve taken Latmeen back. A battle of attrition is not going to favour the Syrian army. Time to wipe them out for good.
It is pretty clear nato is supplying weapons to terrorists and when they attack a population that is state terrorism without a doubt. Why Putin is pussy footing around this rebels who are not interested in a political settlement from the start is not very…. Imagine the ruckus if some other country started supplying weapons to those who are attacking the police and military and cutting off peoples heads. No on says anything so nothing ever changes. The Saudi’s paying some candidates caused such a ruckus in the US. imagine if someone supplied heavy weapons and SAM’s to all the blacks and Hispanics.
I believe that it is quite probable that some of the missiles Russia fired from the Caspian Sea came down in Iran. Neither would it be that disastrous for the first generation of a new type of arms. The National Interest had an interesting article on the issue. Note that the original contains links to the Iranian sources.
Yet before American officials had made the accusation, and before the Russians and Iranians had denied it, multiple local Iranian news sources had reported on crashes of unidentified aircraft in northwestern Iran—in other words, precisely where we’d expect Russian cruise missiles to be flying.
On Wednesday, Golan Saqqez reportedon the crash of an unmanned aircraft near a village in Ziviyeh District, Saqqez County, Kurdistan Province, saying that the parts of the aircraft were taken to the local Revolutionary Guards for analysis. And earlier this morning, Takht Newsreported and published photos related to the crash of an “unidentified flying object” close to a village in Takab County, West Azerbaijan Province—in other words, within the county just north of the other reported crash site. This crash was reportedly accompanied by an explosion that injured two villagers, broke most of the windows in the village, and killed, according to another source, four sheep. The explosion could apparently be heard in other villages nearby. As with the other case, security forces took away debris; photographs showed only a crater.
First paragraphs in fashioning a narrative of utility.
It appears that Charlie Wilson rides again.
This is probably your best analysis ever. It is so because you understand the risks involved in this case. Any bravado or hurrah is out or place and time. The chickens will come home to roost much later, when the Islamic implosion will become more extensive and fearsome
as at 11th Oct
Re The Saker
“I am not trying to make myself
popular, look at all the groups I have
offended and pissed off: Nazis, Zionists,
Papists, Wahabis, homosexuals, (some)
Orthodox Christians (Sergianists, modernists
and extremist zealots), laissez-faire
capitalists, gun control freaks, Russian
“hurray patriots”, supporters of the French
National Front, feminists, defenders of the
“Western civilization”, French “Charlies”,
believers in the official 911 fairytale, racists
Islam haters, Hamas and Fatah supporters,
etc. etc. etc. etc.”
“I wouldn’t be a member of any club that would have me ” – Groucho Marx.
Fantastic posts here.
Isn’t there something pretty pathetic about a class that derives validation from the ramblings of a syphilitic loon like de Sade?
That one’s sense of self-worth is contingent upon the relative is a measure of the inherent feebleness of same.
That they need envy like oxygen is worthy of derision.
I have wondered more than once why this class – with so much leisure, .information, opportunity – generates so little creativity. Almost none of the great artists come from the plutocracy. None of the great musicians, composers, painters, architects.
Cheney’s euphemism for destructiveness – ‘creative chaos’ – encapsulates this creative impotence.
It’s as if both the inbred and psychopathic can’t rise above calculus.
I shouldn’t pity them, but I do.
Eimar, read Guido Preparata’s book called “Ideology of Tyranny” its all about Michel Foucault who is a disciple of Sade’s best pupil…i forget that guy’s name…
Guido is fantastic writer….and Hilary Clinton’s a supporter of Foucault..its the ‘liberal’ way…please read the book…such a masterpiece…his other book too…
‘Conjuring Hitler’ by Guido Preparata…best book out there on the money trail of National Socialism….all about Bank of England….such good material
Could anyone tell me anything about about SU-30 fighter jets?
“New fighter jets join Russian Aerospace Forces’ operation in Syria — Defense Ministry”
MOSCOW, October 12. /TASS/. Sukhoi Su-30 fighters have been included in the air group of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov told reporters on Monday.
“The Su-30 fighters provide air escort for all flights of our strike aircraft in the Syrian Arab Republic,” he said.
The SU 30 is a great plane but Russia only has a few of them in Syria. The USA has more planes in the theatre and could easily sweep them aside, perhaps with a few losses.
The USA does not want to do that because Russia will then light up their SA300s & S400s creating a no fly zone by the Russians.
What will NATO do then?
Had Putin provided the s-300s in the first place, as he ought to have done, to both Syria and Iran, this whole mess would never have happened.
A large Iranian army needs to be parked close to israel and provided with Russian support to keep these Zionist dogs in their quiet corner.
9/10ths of the chaos in the M.E. spawns from them – Oded Yinon is what’s happening here, and ALL parties knowingly or unknowingly, are helping.
I, for one, would prefer that Russia keeps its role limited to aerial attacks and let Syrians complete the cleanup. Otherwise there is not much difference between what US does and what Russia is doing. Not to mention potential losses and possible collateral damages. And the Western media will have field day.
While NATO/US are unlikely to counter Russia in any way in Syria – I don’t think they will have much choices left to search for an excuse to pick up fight if they really see their plans in Middle East getting severely damaged. IMHO a desparate USA is the biggest danger that a world can think of.
However or whatever, it is sure, that this Syrian conflict situation is not going to finish or what people are used to say, getting political / social stable in very near future.
So, with a ground of , fighting and conflict is continuing for years. What possible situations could arrive in these part of world ? and Surrounding –
What will appear in united EU, what would change by Security Council in UN ?
How successful this time US & UK (I intentionally include UK) will, by taking same activities like Afghanistan in Soviet time?
How patient Russia will be to keep continuing its action ? Will Russian people keep supporting for years ?
Who else is directly going to join in this conflict by next 2/3 years?
What is possible commodity market [ Oil, food, cloths, medicine ] in coming years?
I’m search answer for these questions, also from past. Would like to know your valuable indication too.