This article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-twenty-one-of-the-russian-military-intervention-in-syria-the-calm-before-the-storm/
The ceasefire in Syria (which is not really a ceasefire, but rather a “focusing of combat operations”) is holding surprisingly well. This is primarily due to the brilliant tactic of forcing each fighting group in Syria to define itself either as a “good moderate”, and be guaranteed safety, or as as en “evil terrorist” and become an indisputably legitimate target which anybody can engage. De jure, the only ones who can legally engage anybody in Syria are only the Russians and the Syrians, everybody else, including the US-led coalition, is present there in total illegality, but de facto the latest agreement also acknowledges the right of all parties to engage the “evil terrorists”. By forcing each group to self-define itself the Russians have completely taken away any credibility from the rather ludicrous accusation that they were bombing the “good terrorists”, the latter category having basically disappeared from the conflict. And to be really honest and blunt about it, the US has been forced to accept the Russian definition of a terrorist as “anybody who fights against the Syrian government”. Oh, I know, they never agreed to such a wording, but since those who until now fought were categorized into “good” and “bad” opposition to the Syrian government and since now the “good opposition” accepts the truce/ceasefire, that means that all those who fight against the government are ipso facto “bad”. Thus anybody taking up arms against the Syrian government is “bad” and a legitimate target for total elimination. QED.
The worst part for the Americans must have been that they waltzed into this conceptual trap with their eyes absolutely open, but that they could do nothing about it. They knew that their only chance to avoid a humiliating military defeat on the ground was to transmogrify it into a “ceasefire” followed by some kind of vague “transition”. So yeah, they hate this outcome, but the other one was even worse. Besides, some officials no doubt realized that the American policy in Syria was totally insane, bordering on a kind of dissociative identity disorder in which various agencies were not aware of what the others were doing and, in some cases, were even literally fighting each other on the ground. To persist on such an absolutely crazy course was bringing the risk of a major war with Russia, something neither the Europeans nor a big part of the (non-Neocon) US deep state really wanted. So while we can legitimately pour scorn on the imbecility of the Obama Administration’s policy in Syria, let us always also remember that it could have been worse (just imagine Hillary in the White House!). By stepping back from the brink the USA did the right thing.
And it’s not like we should choke up on gratitude either. First, the USA created his mess to begin with and, second, it’s not like right now they have fully recovered their sanity either. Not only is the US seething at its humiliation by Russia but now some die-hard Neocons want to try Assad, Russia, Iran for ‘war crimes’ in Syria! That nonsense is the direct result from this uniquely American mix of delusion and impotent rage about Russia and, really, the entire world. Something like a child breaking a toy he was told he could not have. While I would never discount the possibility of the USA doing something really reckless, the main danger today, as before, comes not from the USA but from the toxic and explosive Turkey+Saudi combo.
Ankara and Riyadh are giving all the signs of being up to no good. Not only does their rethoric remain bellicose, they are also playing all sorts of very dangerous military games: in a display of total irresponsibility and recklessness Saudi Arabia has reportedly engaged 150’000 troops in what the Saudis describe as “the 2nd largest military gathering since Desert Storm”. Other sources (here and here) speak of 350’000 troops (20 countries are now officially participating in these exercises). The Saudis have also moved 4 F-15S to the Incirlik air base in Turkey. This is not much, but this could be just a “tripwire force” which, if attacked, could justify the engagement of a much larger and reasonably modern Saudi Air Force (roughly 300 combat aircraft, 5 AWACS and 5 aerial refueling aircraft). Add in the Turkish Air Force (roughly 250 combat aircraft, 4 AWACS and 7 areal refueling aircraft) and you will see that the threat to the tiny Russian Aerospace task force (50 combat aircraft) is very real, even if the Russian pilots and their aircraft are quite superior to anything the Turks or Saudis have. The Iranians also feel threatened and are warning against an invasion of Syria.
So how big is this Saudi-Turkish threat really?
It really depends on your assumptions.
If you assume that the Turks and the Saudis are rational actors, then the threat is not that big. For one thing, even if this “Wahabi coalition” brings in a lot of airpower, their ground forces, while large, are far away from the conflict zone and do not have what it takes to take on the Syrian-Iranian-Hezbollah forces on the ground. And since airpower alone cannot win a war, the only ground force the Turks and Saudis could count on would be Daesh. Not a good option at all, not militarily not politically. However,
If you assume that the Turks and the Saudis have “lost it” and are lashing out in frustration over their failure to overthrow Assad and take control over Syria, then they most definitely can bring about a direct conflict which Russia: since they tiny Russian force in Syria cannot protect itself against such a large adversary, Russia would have no other option than to bring her long range strike capabilities (Aerospace Forces, cruise and ballistic missiles) into the fight. Even more relevantly, Russia would have to strike at the Turks and the Saudis who would be operating from air bases shared with the US (CENTCOM) and NATO in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Also, in case of such a brazen Saudi-Turkish attack on Russian Forces I would fully expect Russian MiG-31s (possibly operating from Iran) to engage enemy aircraft. At the end of the day, neither Iran nor Russia will allow the Wahabis to overrun Syria and thus the Turks and Saudis need to ask themselves if they really want a war against Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, especially a war in which both Russia and Iran can, and probably will, strike at their domestically deployed military forces and their support infrastructure?
A more likely scenario is that the US, Turkey and the KSA are trying to find some way to rescue Daesh and to carve up some “Syrian Wahabistan” which could be used to keep Syria weak and bleeding for the foreseeable future. This is clearly the options the Israelis also favor: to break up Syria into a de facto Syrian Kurdistan in the north, a Wahabistan in the east and a secular Syrian republic along the Mediterranean coast. The fact that all this is in total contradiction with the decisions of the UN Security Council apparently does not bother those who are now contemplating such options.
It appears that we are in the proverbial “calm before the storm” and that the war in Syria will soon re-ignite with a possibility even bigger intensity than so far.
PS: it appears that Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has now traveled to Tehran to speak with his Iranian counterpart. Good. God willing the Iranians will hammer some sanity into the Turkish rulers.
If Turkey and SA invade Syria they are in for a big surprise.
“A more likely scenario is that the US, Turkey and Syria are trying to find some way to rescue Daesh and to carve up some “Syrian Wahabistan” which could be used to keep Syria weak and bleeding for the foreseeable future.”
I think this is a typo and meant to say “the US,Turkey,and Saudi Arabia” instead of “Syria”.
I think this is a typo and meant to say “the US,Turkey,and Saudi Arabia” instead of “Syria”.
Yes, of course. Corrected.
UB – You’re showing off how captious you’re! Nothing escapes you… even the obvious!
you ´re very cute, same as always.
For the progress of sciente pls hand us over your biography.
The science in case is psychiatry.
Whatever, it will start before the Syria elections WED APR 13, likeliest on the very eve of!
Because they are “creatures of habit”, they repeat a recent winning formula, & will repeat what was done in Ziad’s today story event of 2014 (taken from ICH linked)
On 20 January 2014, two days before negotiations about the Syrian conflict were scheduled to begin in Switzerland, a sensational report burst onto television and front pages around the world. The story was that a former Syrian army photographer had 55,000 photographs documenting the torture and killing of 11,000 detainees by the Syrian security establishment.
And if Assad were to somehow mysteriously lose the April elections, or the elections sabotages to the point where his legal mandate is in doubt?
The time to strike would be during elections, not before, and making sure the post election period was as chaotic as possible.
The Northern Thunder exercise was reportedly scheduled to end on March 10.
We should know pretty soon if they are going to send these forces towards Syria.
“A more likely scenario is that the US, Turkey and Syria are trying to find some way to rescue Daesh and to carve up some “Syrian Wahabistan” which could be used to keep Syria weak and bleeding for the foreseeable future.”
Should this be: “A more likely scenario is that the US, Turkey and the Saudis are trying to find some way to rescue Daesh and to carve up some “Syrian Wahabistan” which could be used to keep Syria weak and bleeding for the foreseeable future.” ?
typo corrected. sorry
“the US, Turkey and Syria are trying to find some way to rescue Daesh”
Syria rescuing Daesh together with US and Turkey???
typo corrected. sorry
Turkey and KSA are being run by nutters no doubt but I dont think they have the courage or political will to attack Syria and Russia with their direct forces. It’s more sabre-rattling imho, mainly for deception and diverting attention. The Saudis and Turkish wouldnt risk full scale war without US approval and I very much doubt the Obama administration would sanction such a move. However, Hilary would most likely support it. So we might see low level warfare until then.
The more realistic and possible scenario is utilising Lebanese Sunni Militias to engage Hizbollah and occupy them in their own country, thereby affecting their Syrian reach. Moo of Alabama has a good piece on it:
Indeed, that might be the more likely scenario. The puppet masters would not allow
Oops! Gremlins got into my post! Start again…
… the Washington puppet masters wouldn’t allow an open confrontation with Russia. They prefer their traditional sneaky cowardly way of operating in the shadows behind the attack dogs. They need the rabid canines howling in the area to keep the ME in a state of permanent chaos to suit their Zionist ubermasters.
If it came to blows, the Russians would have the unique historical opportunity of reducing Turkey and Saudi to failed states and bring the whole ME under its protection. The European side of NATO would not risk involvement, neither would that country that has never been invaded since their own invasion (apart from a brief incursion by the Canadians when they burnt down the White House).
“If you assume that the Turks and the Saudis are rational actors,”
This is getting down to the nitty gritty. The real reasons for war. Something that has always been and always will be.
Hopefully these attack dogs will be put down before they break their leash.
One thing the Saudis should perhaps keep in mind if they consider going for it:
Turkey is a member of NATO, which makes things distinctly tricky for Russia. The Russians might tend to take a rather defensive stance, fighting mainly just in Syria in hopes of avoiding a war with NATO as a whole.
(If I were in the Russian government at that time I think I would strenuously advocate putting a good deal of effort into trying to simply assassinate Erdogan in hopes that the next president would be more reasonable. No reason to kill lots of Turks when it seems to be mainly one man dragging the country into war)
Saudi Arabia, however, is not part of NATO, so if the Saudis attack Russian forces I see no reason why Russia shouldn’t strategically bomb Saudia Arabia into the stone age. Heck, blowing the hell out of the Saudi oil infrastructure would at a stroke solve a huge economic problem for Russia, Iran and Venezuela (low crude prices). In short, the Saudis have more to lose pushing this than they might be willing to admit to themselves.
According to Th Meyssan(in Damas)preparations are underway(where?) for an uprising in both south and north of saudi arabia with the purpose to end the regime.
It is an audio(french)
The only possible outcome of such a revolt would be the pretext for ethnically cleansing Shia from the oil-rich portions of Saudi Arabia.
Apparently “… almost all the Persian Gulf’s fossil fuels are located underneath Shiites. This is true even in Sunni Saudi Arabia, where the major oil fields are in the Eastern Province, which has a majority Shiite population.”
Russian military intervention in Syria: As Saker said: “The more likely scenario…” oh-oh the dread Plan “B” !! Well, I think the Russians have a tactical anti-plan “B” up their sleeves. At least so far, they have amazed the world in their “think smart” thrifty approach to modern warfare. Plan ” B” ?? Plan Bust .
It looks as if the Russians will definitely “put up” their dukes when the time for talking ( or shutting up) is past. Right now, the idiots in Washington should be grateful that they are Not shutting up. It is time for Washington, if I may be so indecorous, ” to sh-t or get off the fence” and decide once and for all what side they are on in Syria: the forces of the Islamic state or the forces of Syrian secularism.
Any details about recent clash between Russian and Chechen soldiers in Borzoi in Chechnya ?
Here´s something about it: https://pressimus.com/Interpreter_Mag/stream/2492
The site you linked to is the Institute of Modern Russia.
In looking up their main website and going into the about us section, I found this..
The Institute of Modern Russia (IMR) is a public policy think-tank that strives to establish an intellectual framework for building a democratic Russia governed by rule of law. IMR promotes social, economic, and institutional development in Russia through research, analysis, advocacy and outreach. Our goal is to advance Russia’s integration into the community of democracies and to improve its cooperation on the global stage.
Founded in 2010, IMR is located in New York City and is an affiliate of the Open Russia movement. IMR is a federal tax-exempt Section 501(c)(3) public charity, incorporated in New Jersey.
You did a good job,thanks for info
In what should be another solid endorsement for Donald Trump, Anne Applebaum fears the end of the west as we know it. “We are two or three bad elections away from the end of NATO. Perhaps one good election if Donald Trump wins. A lot of fear mongering in the article, but only fear for the Neocons, not the 99%. The Neocons are running scared. That can be a good thing and a bad thing. Good that they may loose a significant amount of influence, bad if they act like Samson in the temple.
NATO was a triumph in that for the first time in history the great Western powers agreed to a de-facto non-aggression pact with one another in an alliance sold as strictly defensive. It would have been best for NATO reform and live up to that ideal rather than becoming American auxiliaries.
The bad part was that imperialist aggression, rather than being tamed by a culture of peace and cooperation, was turned against the rest of the world. NATO can’t function without an ‘other’ to aggress. NATO could cover up a lot under cover of the Cold War, but after, the truth was laid bare.
The death of that culture of aggression would be a good thing; the only question is, would the death of NATO mean the death of the cult of imperialist aggression, or, leading Western powers deciding to turn against one another, lacking a realistic ‘other’.
Let’s put it this way:
Under the pretext of creating a non-aggression pact among the great Western powers, the Zio-Fascist behind-the-curtain controllers used NATO to dismantle what little sovereignty was left of bespoke great Western powers. Checkmate.
OK, sure, but what if any effect would dismantling NATO have on Anglo Zionism? (The OP was fearful of the destruction of NATO).
Particularly if, over the next century, Eurasia does not fail, and not only does not fail as a legal-political-mercantile construct, but a cultural construct resistant to Zionism, immune to its wiles and finding Zionism repugnant.
“….the main danger today, as before, comes not from the USA but from the toxic and explosive Turkey+Saudi combo.”
The above statement subsumes the Turks and KSA regimes are independent actors. I cannot concur. Both rather than allying together, acting as cohorts, act at the behest of the American imperialists. They do not act as an independent force. They both comply with and do as they are told. Should the US give their approval and provide a kind of guaranteed support the two act.
Both have publically stated they will enter the fray in Syria upon receiving empires approval.
Isn’t it more likely that NATO will use a Turkey and Saudi invasion, to force the Russians to use their ‘Donald Cook demoted’ technology.
It would seem to me that learning how to disable (or reverse engineer) this technology is more important to the various militaries, than fussing with Syria.
Great podcast with Catherine Austin Fitts yesterday. You are a highly effective communicator of the most important information.
Do more podcasts please.
In this piece you offer readers the following choice:
If you assume that the Turks and the Saudis are rational actors…
If you assume that the Turks and the Saudis have “lost it” and are lashing out in frustration over their failure to overthrow Assad…
I am straining for an understanding of, dare I say, dispositions of temporal power. While I do not disagree with most of your analysis, I believe the frame you’ve established here is fundamentally incorrect. Neither the Turks nor Saudis have any agency whatsoever.
I assume the Turks and Saudis are proxies for Necon ‘Zionists’, Israel, the CIA/MIT (Safari club + Sabatean + Donmeh ‘deep’ state Turks) and the seriously weakened Patraeus/Breedlove gang (NATO imperial shock troops + occupational forces — traitors by definition) within the US military.
These are the interests backing Hillary Clinton.
I further assume the White House primarily represents the ‘Anglo’ faction, including ‘old’ money interests (US ‘blue’ bloods), certain other CIA factions, loyal US military, John Kerry State Dept. (believe it or not) and others who see the wisdom or usefullness of negotiating with Russia.
These are the interests primarily responsible for the insurgent Presidential campaign of Donald Trump — at least that is my hope.
My fear is that Trump is also controlled by the Zionists, or else they will eliminate him (assassination) or more likely use a three-way battle (Cruz vs Trump vs Clinton) to ride Hillary Clinton to the White House using the same strategy they employed with Ross Perot.
Since the Zionists control most of the media, on which most voters base (are told of) their decisions, they are at a strong advantage even if the people of America are severely fatigued by the Clintons.
I believe this is the basic dialectical arrangement of the Anglo-Zionist Imperial policy establishment. Working together and in competition, familiar to us as the good cop/bad cop routine, these divisions can grow and become apparent under conditions of extreme stress, like during international crisis’, such as when the US attack on Syria was suddenly called off thanks to fancy diplomatic footwork by Russia (apparently), giving Obama the excuse he needed to block the war party’s direct assault on Syria, despite a mind numbing year long propaganda campaign in overwhelmingly Zionist controlled media.
Obama, recall, was himself a successful insurgent candidate against the Zionist Clintons, via the CIA in cooperation with ‘old’ money interests, including the Bush clan which has always hated the Clintons, especially after Bill Clinton himself led a successful Zionist insurgent campaign against blue blood George H. W. Bush (#1) in 1992.
The struggle continues with essentially the same factions always vying for the power of appointment given to a President.
Did John Kerry really ‘slip up’ when he introduced the idea of removing Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons to call off the NATO attack? There are reasons to doubt. Remember it was the Ziocons who ‘swiftboated’ Kerry’s Presidential aspirations. The folks at the top of the world all understand who represents who — and so must Vladimir Putin or he could not be effective.
The implication is that Russia under Putin is working with the Anglo faction and has been since at least 2012. Putin and Lavrov are working to exploit divisions between Anglos and ZIonists, the only rational course of action they can take, but their almost miraculous successes to date can only be explained by strong covert support from the Anglo faction — or perhaps aliens or God, if those are your prefered leitmotifs, since at least those explanations would be logical.
This paradigm (of tactical and strategic Russian-Anglo co-operation against Zionists), if you’re willing to stretch your mind around it for a moment, is highly persuasive and has tremendous explanatory power. It allows us to place almost every ‘event’ since 2012 into a coherent narrative. Russia and the ‘Anglo’ faction are working in close cooperation to unwind the war in Syria, yes, but most of all, to isolate and destroy Necon ZIonist power and defeat the potentially catastrophic Presidency of Hillary Clinton.
The final resolution in Syria will possibly look very much like the agreement negotiated in 2012 by the White House and Russia, then torpedoed by the ZIonists with strong help from Israeli controlled France.
Anti Russian voices in the blogosphere, both conscious and unconscious Zionists, have worked hard to exploit the inconsitencies and perceived betrayals by Russia of Syria during these negotiations. They will continue to work to undermine confidence in Russian intentions but for now it seems their efforts are failing.
The stakes are almost beyond measure yet here we are again, forced to choose between the lesser of two evils, only this time Necon Zionists are willing to literally go nuclear, enacting a long planned Armegeddon-Dabiq type false flag, unleashing ‘tribulations’ and an unprecedented wave of violence and repression across the whole planet.
The Zionists are the mythmakers and they use this, their greatest power, to considerable effect. Whether they actually have the power to launch a nuke is another question all together but they are already involved in the smuggling of nuclear weapons technology, amongst other activities.
Putin is working to stop them but he can not know for certain if his ‘partners’, the Anglos, are cooperating in good faith or bad. The Anglos always maintain plausible deniability as a matter of course. The AZ power system works like this, always allowing one or another AZ interest to benefit from almost any outcome.
What choice does Russia have? Putin must co-operate with the sociopath ‘Anglos’ against the psychopath ‘Zionists,’ hopefully saving Syria but knowing the fraudulently conceived War On Terror will continue indefinitely. That is the only rational choice given the willingness of at least one side to blow up the world.
Net result, even if ‘we’ win and Trump defeats Clinton, by and large we still lose and only postpone the date of a potentially catastrophic confrontation, while technocratic fascism descends upon us, accelerating with each crisis, because both Anglos and Zionists prefer you are dead or enslaved to free and self determined.
This is a good analysis. The one point that is most intriguing , but hardly ever mentioned, is that Putin has a very strong support and connections in Israel, not just among over 1 million immigrants from USSR, but also among all Israeli Arabs (20% population), and all Palestinians on occupied territories.
And that is close or above 50% of all population, and growing.
This naturally extends to top intelligence, military and even gov. circles, but extent of it and how much is that worth is anyone’s guess, as there is very little info published about it. That means that such relation is very fluid, somewhat constructive (no sanctions), highly secretive (both sides can blackmail each other), and quite dangerous for both sides (downing of Russian plane in Sinai, modernizing Syrian army and air force).
Putin and Lavrov do not publicly talk about these issues, but it is clear to me that there is considerable mutual arm twisting.
Indeed, Spiral, and I have never discarded that there could be someone, at least in the field of Israeli intelligence, who could come with a bit of common sense:
“Hezbollah is not an organization but an army in the full sense of the term, said the Israeli military intelligence service Aman, in a statement in an article in the daily Haaretz the military correspondent Amos Harel.(…)
(…) He also cites the article by an officer of Israeli intelligence in which he outlined his predictions about the intentions of Hezbollah in case of war. He fears that Hezbollah attempt to take control of Galilee in case of conflict.
The official believes that Hezbollah has developed its capacity to carry attacks along the border since the start of a possible war, which would allow derail the Israeli army movements in this region. “As the area is mountainous, the assailant can be satisfied with the surprise factor and give up the underground tunnels,” he said.
Analyst from Haaretz said that the Israeli army should inform the public about its provisions “especially since officials expect serious losses during the next war with Lebanon, in addition to serious material losses caused by falling missiles in all Israeli regions “.
Harel concludes that the Israeli army faces a confrontation that will have nothing to do with all past wars. Why, he says, it would be worth more to Israel to try to strengthen its deterrent and prevent such a war break out.”
Perhaps, if you could access to this article in Haaetz and, in case it is open for comments there, would be of interest what the people in Israel is thinking about this.
I do not know if the news are open for comments there and, if yes, if there is or isn´t much censorship about the different ranges of oppinions, Sometimes, when I have accessed there through a link I have seen that some parts are for subscribers only.
I would not agree that there is a deep division between Anglos and Zios in the bowels of the Empire. My take on the Zio element of the Empire is that they are a most useful decoy along with a very useful and precise weapon. Let’s not kid ourselves, the Zios have a long tradition in “intellectualism” and also inherited the “sublime victim” title after WWII. These are the two reasons why the Zios have become the Empire’s elite “precision weapon” Any criticism on them can be easily deflected by merely activating the “anti-Semitic” and “conspiracy-theory” cards. This renders the Zios as perfect cover for the Empire’s machinations, both internally and externally. Not only do the Zios provide the cover for Imperial operations in the Middle East, but also provide the ideological ammunition as well as cover for internal control and thought policing. I hope I am making myself clear here.
As for the current situation in Syria.
I disagree with The Saker that Turkey and KSA are in any way independent actors. As crucial parts of the Empire as they may be, they are still on the USA’s and Europe’s leash and can never act outside their given mandates. The MSM of course, try their damnest to portray them as independent actors so as to place as much distance between themselves and their support for Takfiris in the Middle East. They are basically trying to tell the world, and especially their own sheeple, that they are not really involved in the War on Syria, it’s just those naughty allies of ours the Turks and the Saudis! We are only trying to find a way to help the people over there by disentangling the mess created by the Russkies/Iranians on the one hand, and the Turks/Saudis on the other. For this reason, we, the Awesome and Value-laden West, must push first of all the wicked Russians in accepting that “Assad Must Go!” and after the Blood-soaked dictator is out, we will then “convince” our unrefined allies in the Middle East to stop supporting Jihadis so much. This is how their propaganda works in this case.
Now, on the military front, The Saker has it covered.
On the issue of escalating the conflict, I would say this:
RUSSIA IS THE ONLY POWER ON THE PLANET THAT WOULD BENEFIT FROM AN ALL-OUT WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
This is because if that were to ever occur, then Russia’s very own hydrocarbon production and reserves will immediately multiply in value. Such a development would obviously be catastrophic for the Turks & the GCC, but also bad for the Iranians (who may be left with no other choice though) It would also be highly risky for Israel. It would be catastrophe for Europe, not only because Europe’s imports of energy would zoom through the stratosphere in price terms, but also because their piggy banks from the GCC will suddenly shutter into tiny pieces, potentially never to be reestablished ever again. Such a development will easily push the fragile EU economies as well as the EU itself way beyond the breaking point. Something similar, but to a lesser extent applies to the US, but also to China and Japan.
Once one understands what I have briefly explained above, then the answer to the question of why the NATO-GCC-Israel alliance has not taken direct action against Assad becomes that much clearer.
As for the immediate future of the Syraq War, I also explained some kind of escalation, with the Empire angling for a “safe-zone” and Russia and the SAA pushing towards Raqqa.
I sense that the next few months may be the most crucial in History since 1943.
The idea that Russia could be the only big power to benefit from a big war in the middle east is interesting. In addition to the oil thing there are other benefits they could reap in terms of strategic position. The American position is dependent on KSA, but KSA is looking really shaky. Turkey too. America just can’t get involved after the Iraq debacle. They have to rely on their allies, but suddenly Russia is allied with the quality players in the region. US is stuck with Turkey and KSA. If they collapse American involvement in the ME will begin to fade. Israel will not get involved. Europe will not get involved.
I think is obvious that one faction in Washington wants to get it on with Russia but they can’t do it in the ME so they keep trying to shift attention back to the Baltic’s. A place nobody wants, but is strategically important for Russia. The stakes are quite high.
How to you explain the Obama/Kerry brokerage of sanction relief wrt Iran in 2015? Who would want that? I wondered in China somehow insisted on it to keep oil prices low in long term. Like a ransom payment to keep currency exchange between China and US reasonable. Or some other arm hold China has.
The lifting of sanctions on Iran was desired by a host of powers, Including Russia. China first of all has grand designs on Iran and wishes to integrate it into its own sphere of influence. China’s massive investments in Pakistan can only be understood as a bridgehead towards hydrocarbon-rich Iran.
The Europeans also wish to enter the Iranian market which holds great promise for the immediate future. There is also a widespread belief in the West, shared by people such as Zbig, Kerry and Obama (also several think-tanks) that by pulling Iran into the global marketplace, increased prosperity and a “rising middle class” (the absolute fetish of western pseudo-intellectuals) will ultimately undermine the “regime” and fostering a transition to power of pro-western stooges. In relation to Iran, the West also is calculating on a potential Plan B, in which the Iran/Iraq/Syria axis is preferred over the GCC (which is one of the reasons why KSA is so anxious about Iran) so that Russia’s pipeline game can finally be defeated. In other words, in the current Global Hybrid War, Iran is seen as a much lesser evil than Russia.
Iran’s return to the oil market cannot affect the oil price in any long-term way. First of all, in order for Iran to raise its production significantly, billions of $$$ in investment will be required, as well as a period of time. At the current low price environment, interest over Iran’s oil (which may be of very low cost to extract) is bound to be subdued.
Moreover, the oil flowing from Iraq will negatively affect production elsewhere, most of all in North America, with US shale and Canadian tar sands being the primary victims. Also, the North Seas will suffer enormously from the current bloodbath in the oil markets, as well as deepwater production offshore LatAm and Africa (dominated by western majors)
I have (from the very beginning of the current oil-price meltdown) stated on this and many other fora, that the oil price is bound to viciously bounce higher sooner rather than later. The low price does and will affect production on a global scale, there is a lag-time of around 1-4 years (depending on the type of oil production involved as well as other factors) between the level of price and production. In short, there is no way that global oil production can remain at current prices for much more than a few months more, a year at the absolute max. My expectation is that there will be one more “panic bottom” in oil prices that will potentially blow-up the North American oil industry and after that we will be set for a sustained recovery in prices thanks to much lower production going forward.
Do not also forget that Russia also wanted the lifting sanctions on Iran, since Iran is an ally of Russia in the Middle East War and is also a potential buyer of Russian weaponry, nuclear power stations, grain, etc etc etc.
People have gotten excessively worried about the oil prices bringing Russia down, but that is not the case. Russia has taken the extremely painful adjustment without any delay (by allowing the ruble to shadow the price of oil and also avoiding overspending from FX reserves) which is something that most other major players have not remotely done. For this reason, Russia will be in the best position to take advantage of rising oil prices in the coming period.
This is a link to a very topical discussion with oil expert Art Berman on recent trends in the oil price: http://www.macrovoices.com/podcasts/MacroVoices-2016-02-25-Art-Berman.mp3
Stavros man, do you have a blog or something where people can see what you comment or something?! Your comments always make a lot of sence and are interesting to read!
The lifting of sanctions was an attempt by America to coopt Iran and turn it against China and Russia–thereby allowing the United States to sabotage the emerging Eurasian economic projects centered around what William Engdahl calls the Eurasian Golden Triangle nations (Russia-China-Iran).
Even when the United States pretends to “play nice” like the lifting of Iran sanctions, it is only done to disguise its more sinister designs.
Trusting the United Snakes of America is like trusting the Devil himself.
Iran Makes Trade, Not War, with Eurasia
Well it looks like the US is going to use Ukraine as their back door – Iran beware…..:
Your analysis makes a lot of sense for me and could explain well the misunderstood issue of the partnership the Russian officials are always talking about. Here I can not but remember that commenter Mohamed and his then misunderstood “Obama and Putin are in cahoots.”
Only, I was reading and thinking that you were in the same wave lately we can see here in this blog of whitewashing the Anglos, e.g. The Bushes, till I have read your last words which seemed to me the most Important to not lose the perspective:
“Net result, even if ‘we’ win and Trump defeats Clinton, by and large we still lose and only postpones the date of a Potentially catastrophic confrontation, while technocratic fascism descends upon us, accelerating With each crisis, Because Both Anglos and Zionists prefer you are dead or enslaved to free and self determined. “
Being the last words in bold which are of most Importance for we, the people, because I do not consider myself included in that “we” wishing Trump’s victory, since for me will be the same or maybe even worst. Besides I do not forget his connections with the Zionist power related to his bussiness on NYC real state and even his family ties, being his daughter married to a Jew and, I have understood, converted to Judaism.
Another thing in what I disagree is in considering only the faction Zionist as Neocons, because the others, the Anglos, are also Neocons, if not much more. I would find it difficult to quantify who of the two is more evil for the world and for the people.
Factions – Smactions:
H. Clinton (Clinton-2), Trump, The other lesser actors, -eh!
The American electoral circus is at Madison Square Garden, and too many Rubes are buying tickets.
Hollywood Obomber is at the ticket counter. He is scheduled to star, in 2017, with Arnold Swarzeneggar, in a remake of “Predator”.
The hopeful analysis of Imperialist Terrorist (bad terrorist-moderate terrorist), where the ‘moderate terrorists’ actually engage with Russia’s leaders and (as with Mighty Mouse), arrive in time to “Save the Day,” is just a rerun of the old brainwashing appeal of “Vote Democrat, and not for the War Mongering Republican.” Did I actually read from a comment on this forum, that Trump is somehow the Great Hope? That Trump will cooperate with Russia in some fashion?
America’s Presidents (post November 22, 1963), do not exist in a Constitutional Republic. They are for show, advertisement; they are for the Rubes (college students, their Professors, and for many on this forum). American Presidents are not real. Hollywood Obomber has portrayed the fictional Bin Laden, and the even more fictional Obomber (from Kenya). He is Not Real. The next ‘President’ will have no more protein substance than Sauron.
The next ‘President’ will be a Hologram. By falling for this Professional wrestling Scam, we, The People, risk losing our physical identity and fading into the land of the Dead, but Undead. “We The People” are, currently, no more than Holograms. We faded, half a century ago (in Dallas), when we failed to defend our Republic.
At home, on this peninsula (not the Crimea), the Dem gangers are preparing to support Clinton-2, as their Favorite, Zionist Militarist Socialist Imperialist, Sanders, (after performing-playing his role of rousing the Dem ganger Party rank-&-file), is dutifully, fading into obscurity.
Yes, there are a few Americans who would cooperate with Russia, and all other nations, in peacefully developing this beautiful planet, and respecting all its Peoples, and building upon Wilson’s “14 Points,” Roosevelt’s “Four Freedoms,” and all other American documents of freedom, but all 25 of us – Do Not Hold Power!
Hold to your illusions!
I have a date with Sheryl Crow tonight.
For the Democratic Republics, the ones we will rescue, and the ones we will forge!
Good one, made me laugh. Sad to think what might have been had not the demons killed JFK. Sadder too to see the Bushes, GH and GW, both photographed there at Dealey Plaza with Lansdale and then for them to be made President. Pappy Bush was present and spoke at the Jonathan Conference in ’79 rolling out WWIII, convened by Satanyahu. Bibi is reputed by Bollyn to be the overseer of 9/11 and present in NYC on that very day, available to speak the only words of approval of this terror event, of any world leader. Only the real kingmakers and kingslayers could do this stagesetting, and only the money issuers have such power. Only an entrenched millenial power could work behind the scenes staging the world wars that began shortly after 1913. For people here to try to analyze the situation in the ME without reference to who issues money to the Russian Federation, the USI, and Israel, as well as the Saudis and Turkeys, is a fool’s errand and snipe hunt. You can post pages of analysis but if you ignore the prediction of Albert Pike made shortly after the US was incorporated you simply do not grasp the plot. Good luck to us all…to every creature on earth. May all see, thrive, and in peace.
Here’s a comment on this topic that appeared on another blog-
mitch, on March 5, 2016 at 3:33 pm said:
Everybody knows that the USA NATO bloc has been using ISIS and a dozen other groups to destroy Syria. They created ISIS in Libya, and nurtured it while Libya fell and the world did nothing to stop it.
But a lot of people knew what happened, and this time in Syria, there is more awareness of the dirty games being played. So setting up Turkey as the ‘fall guy’ for these dirty deeds makes a lot of sense to the NATO USA scum.
The story will be spun that those nasty sneaky Turks were playing both sides; sucking up to Europe trying to gain entry to the EU while they supplied evil ISIS muslims with weapons, those treacherous bas****s!!! Oh the surprise! The USA gets plausible deniability, Syria gets destroyed and balkanized, Kurdistan is the unholy spawn that results……..and after Turkey is trounced militarily, the refugee crisis in Europe will escalate big time.
Oh yeah, and team NWO superstar Putin will be the one who gets to destroy Erdogan and much of Turkey to remind all the sheepols that Russia is dangerous, and we need to spend way more on our military to defend against the ebil Rusians. Kissinger must be blowing his load at how wonderfully it is all going for him and his team.
Trump: ‘I will not order a military officer to disobey the law’
I know, I have a problem.
I can’t get enough of this guy torturing the gangster establishment!
Some parts of the US admin have now signed up to the Russian/Iranian/Hezbollah/Syrian coalition.
Not sure what happened to the 65 member super coalition that supposedly belittled Russia’s :)
Once that has been recognised, the daft cover story of a peace victory is explained. The fury of the likes of Breedlove becomes clear. That part of the US administration may well be encouraging Saudi and Turkey to war, but there is no deep support for it in Washington.
Putin and Assad may be the target of all of Breedlove and cos anger, but their real anger is because they have lost the internal debats, and who knows, maybe even Obama has made a decision. The war party has lost to the 2 braincell party.
Turkey invasion or not, the world is falling apart for Erdogan. After all He and Turkey are actually as evil as the US claims Putin/Russia is (closing down the leading newspaper in the last day or so).
Russia is more or less taking care of Syria now. The major Obama goal has to be to disassociate itself from Turkey.
Why the SAA was ill prepared for the fight against ISIS and how it was retrained and reequipped:
Le retour de l’Armée arabe syrienne
Military nerd article – French, Italian, Spanish, German
Iran would simply have to take down Saudi Arabia and help the Shias control the oil flow. The US might intervene but runs the risk of China making facts in Asia and North Korea destroying the South, or India neutralising Pakistan. Just as the British Empire could not face drown Germany, Italy and Japan simultaneously and the US backed down over USS Panay which shocked the British in 1937; so the USA cannot fight a multi-ocean war and survive.
Navies are obsolete nowdays except for subs and corvette/frigate sized boats..The big boats are lucrative targets. Iran doesn’t have to take down anyone. They can win by sitting tight and letting nature take its course.
The limited ceasefire and associated UNSC Resolution are a big defeat for Outlaw US Empire warmongers and has helped expose Erdogan’s Turkey as being guilty of exactly the same things Western propaganda was accusing Assad of doing. Indeed, if we use the same criteria to judge Turkey that was used on Syria, then Turkey must be invaded to get it to stop its depredations on its people–R2P. The Saudi’s internal problems are also brewing where any invasion of Syria would be a very big mistake and result in destabilizing the state to the point of inviting an internal coup.
Meanwhile, the SAA and allies continue to sweep the terrorists from the field, daily liberating towns and villages and the transport routes in between. Thousands of “rebels” have taken Assad’s offer of amnesty, which is likely a big shock to the Daesh handlers. In what’s clearly a last-gasp, long odds attempt to reinvigorate its terrorist invasion of Syria, we see the unraveling of Kerry’s “Plan-B” to destabilize Lebanon and Hezbollah, which will likely backfire and create an even stronger Lebanon through the utter delegitimization of groups allied with the West/Saudis/Turks.
Indeed, it more and more looks like the outcome of the Outlaw US Empire’s Syrian project will be the destabilization of its regional allies–Saudi, GCC, Turkey–and strengthening of its adversaries–Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah–plus the negative impact the affair’s having on the Ukrainian project and the legitimacy/efficacy of NATO through destabilizing the EU. When looking at the overall picture, Syria and Russia are the big winners, the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals the big losers. And there’s no way to reverse that outcome. If Iraq again pushes out the Imperial forces trying to reoccupy it and brings the Barzani mafia to heel thus regaining its sovereignty, the entire Neocon plan will finally be scuppered, and Palestine given a chance to live.
Sayyed Hassan Nasralá´s last Tuesday´s speech´s main points : ( In Spanish, try it with a translator those who could not understand Spanish or Arabic, I have not the time to translate right now, sorry ):
“Sayyed Nasralá: Nothing will stop us denouncing the Saudis´ crimes”
by Yusuf Fernandez
Author seems to value the state of mind of the several aggressors… But geopolitical moves have little to do with emotion…do they?
As an American Citizen, albeit NOT ” American ” heritage, and having grown up steeped in what I now realize is pure zionist / satanic foreign policy, I still feel weird rooting for anything Persian, but… here I am, hoping who I considered religious, political, and cultural mortal enemies the best success in curbing these mongol-seeded blood-drenched turks until their hatred is greater than the damage they can do.
Now ask me how I really feel…
Here is a hopeful article from RI about the Russian military component of the peacekeeping process in Syria:
The Anglo-Zionists may yet claim ‘victory’ (and whitewash their creation of the problem in the first palce) by destroying ISIS in Libya.
Great analysis as usual. But I’m afraid of the saudi threat. I’m afraid for Lebanon actually, as the saudis consider now the Hezbollah as a terrorist organization and asked their nationals to leave Lebanon. The saudi could soon attack Hezbollah positions in Lebanon with Turkish backing, driven of course by Israel.
Meanwhile, the lame president Hollande has just given the highest distinction of France to the crown prince of the KSA for his “efforts in the fight against terrorisme and extremism”. I kid you not. France is f***ed. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-3479134/France-awards-honour-Saudi-prince-discreetly.html
If I’d just purchased $7 billion worth of fighter jets I’d want a medal too: http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/france-saudi-arabias-new-arms-dealer-13533.
..and I’d wear it when chairing UN Human Rights Council meetings.
Damn sickening (another) sight it is, too.
This is the specious character Putin so hastily saddled up with right after the Hebdo, no?
Maybe they’re getting him fitted for one of those haute couture kepi’s, like you see in the background there, & they’re going to make him an honorary commandant of the FFL, so he can return in style to S.A., just in time to surrender to Yemen in their southern war.
An “honour” to a Saudi, and a great dishonour to France.
What price for a Legion d’Honeur? One wonders if Hollande’s bank account has suddenly received a hefty Saudi donation – a la Najib Razak, who saw his bank account swollen by $1 billion.
It appears the results, agreements reached, recently between Turkey and Iran concerning Syrian sovereignty, economic cooperation, and very importantly that the numerous regional conflicts must be resolved by the most influencial regional actors and not by outside forces that wish to influence outcomes for their own benefit.
So much for the much ballyhood alliance between the KSA and Turkey and their intent to invade Syria.
Turkey wants a Syrian Kurdistan ? I think not.
If you are replying to me, I suggest you first point out where I mentioned Turkey wants a Syrian Kurdistan? Second, maybe you do not understand what the acronym KSA stands for. Or third your reading comprehension skills remain stuck at a below third grade level?
1. As I had predicted a few weeks ago (perhaps less) on this forum, Turkey will not invade Syria.
If Turkey, the biggest military in Europe and second biggest in tNATO with 30 years of combat experience in Turkish Kurdistan and a successful invasion of Cyprus is not willing to go in to Syria, forget about Saudi which is struggling in Yemen.
The Saudi military exercises are all hot war and possibly more aimed at Iran than Syria and sending a message to Iran that “if you attack us, it’s an attack on all Sunnis and all Sunni states will defend us”.
Other than that the Saudi military is a joke.
Senior Saudi commanders have even begged the apparently now de facto imprisoned (under house arrest according to some claims) crown prince, Ibn Nayef to prevent any Saudi adventure in Syria citing the Saudi’s miserable failure in Yemen too.
2. Saudi is an important actor and does enjoy some autonomy but has to operate within parameters set by its patron the USA.
Also the House of Saud are now, if not in a low intensity mini civil war with each other, are in a state of tension with the majority of the Al-Saud princes unhappy with the current king and his maverick and reckless son, ibn Salman.
Even ibn Salman, as wild and stupid as he is, must realize that any adventure in Syria could lead to a de facto military coup against him. The letter to his rival, official no.2 ibn Nayef, was perhaps a veiled warning of that by the military.
3. Russia has won in Syria and it’s all over.
This was even without major Chinese support, though the Chinese did send their only aircraft warrior close to the Syrian coast.
For academic purposes I will just state if Saudi were to attack Syria (which won’t happen and the Syrians are now closing in on Ar-Raqqah which could fall in a week or two, far less time then it takes for the Saudis to mobilize a major army in to Syria through Jordan) then the Syria-Iran defence pact would be activated.
Iran would seriously think of invading Saudi alongside Russia and I am not joking.
The Iranians would simply take over oil rich eastern Saudi and hand it over to local Arabs including the many Shia that live there. Russian troops could/would also be present there thus transferring the world’s major oil supply source over to Russian influence.
The Syrians themselves would take some action as they have a large unused ballistic inventory which they stocked for years in order to counter Syria (people can talk about Hizbullah’s missile arsenal but what about Syria which unlike Hizbullah is an actual state and one which Hizbullah was reliant on) and would target the Saudis.
A Saudi invasion of Syria (not going to happen) would be akin to a Saudi invasion of Iran. If Saudi were to invade/attack Iran then the Iranians would under United Nations and international law be allowed to strike Saudi either through air power or missiles, this is what the Syrians would do.
Remember the Syrians are fighting a low-to-middle intensity anti-terrorist, anti-guerrilla war and did not use all the weaponry they had accumulated for decades for use against Israel. This unused weaponry would then be used to smash the Saudis in conjunction with Iraq, Iran and Russia.
4. The Americans know they are defeated in Syria and will not dare to antagonize the bear too much.
Just another American defeat alongside those against far weaker adversaries let alone the nuclear power that is Russia.
– Black hawk down humiliation to Somali tribesmen.
– Bay of Pigs fiasco and defeat to the Cubans.
– Expulsion of US marines from Lebanon by Shias in the 1980s after 200+ US marines were killed in a bomb.
– Defeat in Vietnam.
– Defeat by the Canadians in 1812 with the presidential palace burnt down by the Canadians only for it to repainted “white”, hence “white house”.
– Expulsion of the US from Iran including downing of a US helicopter with 8 US personnel dying in failed Operation Eagle Claw.
Iran, Lebanon, Vietnam, Somalia, Cuba….all places where the US has been slapped hard and humiliated.
Not to add in the past few years the American defeats in Georgia, Ukraine, Crimea, Donbass and now Syria.
Russia has won in all of these regions.
The war is over. Russia has won.
“Turkey the biggest military in Europe and the second biggest in NATO… and a successful invasion of Cyprus…”
Turkey is not European (although it still occupies a bit of Greece) and will never be, even if Merkel “promised” fastracking admission to the EU.
I checked and checked but there was never any reliable independent confirmation of any Chinese warship near the Syrian coast, let alone the Liaoning CV in Tartous harbour. The rumour begins and ends with the peculiar Israeli news outfit, Debka. It never made sense, for such any such vessel to be sent without public fanfare.
Its not clear where she was at the time, and the Chinese never slipped and volunteered her true location, nor was any non-Chinese source goosed into admitting they knew. However, its unlikely that a training carrier, itself still undergoing trials, and lacking a trained, robust logistical support fleet, would be sent on such a mission.
The Chinese navy is still very much a green water, regional navy with limited blue water experience; they wouldn’t be very much help to Russia and might even get in the way.
The Mediterranean is also Russia’s sphere of influence; the Chinese are not going to challenge a strategic partner or in any way suggest Russia needs Chinese help in any way.
Well said, Muslim Dude.
Each day I check Reuters world news for what the US is up to (which way the propaganda is going), Sputnik (bland The Russians keep their cards close), and Guardian for UK propaganda to see what the Brits are up to and what way the comments are running.
Something strange happening at the Guardian.
A few days ago they published an opinion piece rubbishing US propaganda on the Mosul dam collapsing.
Next they publish a piece of anti Russia propaganda that was so transparent for what it was that it seemed to be designed that way.
Next they publish a piece on how Europe and Russia must reconcile, although they also include in that Europe reconciling with Turkey.
I think that with the Russia move in Ukraine to a small extent but mainly Russia’s moves in Syria, both diplomatic and military, the powers that be have had start reacting to events that have not been allowed for in planning and have not been gamed out. If nothing else Putin is original.
In reacting to events rather than directing events, they are also starting to lose control, or perhaps now have lost control completely, of the narrative that is fed to the public.
At stake is the US dollar, a powerful tool for maintaining hegemony and the underpinning of the US military machine. Desperate times for the “elite” that derive their status and power from the US dollar.
Calm before the storm or an overstretched bubble of fecal matter ready to burst?
Comrade President P is not simply original… The Pope decorated him for Peace…and no wonder! Vladimir means “Lord of the World/Peace” according to wiki….
Put that in the pipe and smoke, inhale deep, brother…
Couldn’t a’ made this up!
Y’wonder – will Vlad have Trumpster or Giggles for lunch… If I was to find a bookie I’d bet the lady’s going to be the entree – fried – with catsup and onions… But I never bet except on sure things…
So I’d bet that Brother Vlad will have his lunch…one way or t’aher…
An aged cut that perhaps will cook up like a boiled crow, or a fattened beast that may only be good for hamburger as it hasn’t been cut? No matter, there will be something on the menu.
The “shape” of the campaign of proxywar-syria (PWS) does indeed suggest to me also that a storm is in the offing. That’s dangerous enough – but http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/19/politics/b-1-bombers-isis/index.html – the story is that these seasoned aircraft need their dashboard lights re-jiggered for flying with night-vision – and that this can only be done state-side. That’s nonsense, but that’s the story… And B 52’s are “rotating in”. Google and read…
What’s the difference? The old 52,s are more expendable…
The modern Lancers are being kept safe.
Sorta like sending the fleet to Pearl and then sending the carriers to sea…minimize important losses…maximize losses of obsolete machines and also obsolete “heroic” “fodder-units” (the callous latter term is the one they tell us that Bush 41 uses for servicemen…)
I can hear already the emotional speech Barky’s going to make – “suddenly and deliberately attacked…blah, blah,infamy, blah…war, blah, blah, war…” – applause…drum-roll.
Right outta Sun Tsu. Or the Gulf of Tonkin…
Not a pretty implication so far as the size of the “storm”…
Now where’s that raincoat?
B-52s are 2 decades older than were the WW I era old battleships when FDR schemed in sending them to P.H. a mere 18 months before DEC7, as they were all based in California up to then.
B-52 RCS is huge, many square meters aluminum.
Can only be there for 2 purposes–carpet bombing something (Mosul dam?), or a planned FF.
I think that only something this big, not any of their smaller faster fighter-bombers, are capable of carrying ordnance such as the giant MOAB & FOAB style super-bunkerbuster bombs. That alone says a lot.
Syrian National Council SNC elects new leader
Posted on March 6, 2016 by Editorial Staff in Syria
BEIRUT,— One of the main Western-backed Syrian opposition groups elected a new leader Saturday after the term of its former chief ended, it said in a statement.
You would think these clowns would put up somebody that has at least the appearance of a statesman or even a normal person but it looks like they grabbed some down and out heavy from a down an out bar that has no money to pay for security.
HEWLÊR-Erbil, Kurdistan region ‘Iraq’,— Work on a pipeline carrying oil from northern Iraq to Turkey should be complete “in a day or two”, an industry source based in the Kurdistan region said on Sunday, with the outage now in its third week.
The pipeline runs through Turkey’s restive southeast, which is engulfed in the worst violence since the 1990s after a two year-long ceasefire between the state and Kurdish militants broke down last July.
Turkey’s energy ministry said flows were initially suspended due to temporary security measures, and that militants from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) had subsequently blown up the pipeline.
Russia freezes delivery of S-300 missile defense to Iran
It looks like Russian Jews have a strong foot inside Russia.
I saw the story. The source is a Kuwaiti newspaper and it claims that this decision was taken by Putin in retaliation for Iran giving Pantsir-S and Iakhont missiles to Hezbollah. This does not look very credible to me. So let’s wait and see if this really true or not.
Cheers, The Saker
The Saudi-Turkish threat is precisely zero without American help, which can’t reasonably be provided for in-situ. Sure, they can do something stupid like attack, but that’s not a crisis for Syria, that’s target practice for Russia.
Only American fighters of the Block 50/52 F-16C or EA-18G ‘Growler’ can do ‘Wild Weasel’ SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses). There is no way to base them in-situ without Russia noticing, on land or at sea, or protect their logistics support once the shooting starts, even with aerial refueling.
Without a way to break Syrian/Russian A2AD lite – requiring very extensive and deep American commitment – there is not going to be a shooting war based on formal Saudi and Turkish warfighting capabilities.
Unless for some reason, Saudi Arabia and Turkey want to lose their expensive aircraft and pilots. Air supremacy and ground attack aircraft matter only after an opponent’s ground-based (and sea-based) air defenses have been destroyed, leaving surviving fighters blind and military bases defenseless. Russia won’t lose much more than the cost of a missile and maybe some jet fuel if they decide to let the SU-35s have some sport.
Sending in tanks to blitz vital air defense positions isn’t going to work either. The ceasefire- ‘grounded’ Russian air force, is conveniently available to smash such an incursion. See above explanation for the likely outcome of Saudi-Turk close air support of such an incursion.
Although there is some quibbling over the veracity of Access-to, Area Denial as a strategic concept, the fact remains, NATO can’t get into position to safely crack Syrian nuts without getting their own busted.
Although quisling Neocons, Turkey and the GCC are more than willing to fight the last American, the Americans facing the dying may have something to say about that.
Then there are the French and German forces in-situ, after the American carrier forces hastily left the region following the first demonstration of Russian cruise missile capability.
Ostensibly to fight IS DAESH, should they receive orders to turn on their Russian ‘partners’, what are the odds the Euros will recklessly and pointlessly endanger their lives and that of their nations-states? More like Germany and France would instantly withdraw, if need be, suspending their NATO memberships on the way out.
@ try Assad, Russia, Iran for ‘war crimes’ in Syria! That nonsense is the direct result from this uniquely American mix of delusion and impotent rage about Russia and, really, the entire world.
That was the goal of the whole operation Arab Spring, Syria, Ukraine. The NWO proclaiming the right to judge, condemn and execute whoever stands in the way of Israel.
makes you want to ****
“Revealed: MI6 are compiling a secret dossier of Putin’s ‘war crimes’ in Syria
MI6 investigating alleged attacks on Syrian civilians by Russian war planes
Doing so with view to prosecuting President Vladimir Putin for war crimes
Scotland Yard detectives have also flown to Lebanon to monitor air strikes
Russia accused of causing casualties by targeting schools and hospitals
For more on Putin’s ‘war crimes’ in Syria visit http://www.dailymail.co.uk/putin
By MARK NICOL, DEFENCE CORRESPONDENT FOR THE MAIL ON SUNDAY
PUBLISHED: 23:47, 5 March 2016 | UPDATED: 13:46, 6 March 2016
MI6 and British police are investigating alleged attacks on civilians by Russian war planes in Syria – with a view to prosecuting President Vladimir Putin for war crimes, The Mail on Sunday can reveal
MI6 and British police are investigating alleged attacks on civilians by Russian war planes in Syria – with a view to prosecuting President Vladimir Putin for war crimes, The Mail on Sunday can reveal
MI6 and British police are investigating alleged attacks on civilians by Russian war planes in Syria – with a view to prosecuting President Vladimir Putin for war crimes, The Mail on Sunday can reveal.
Scotland Yard detectives have flown to Lebanon to monitor air strikes in neighbouring Syria – amid claims that Russian bombers have caused hundreds of casualties by targeting hospitals and schools.
Medical charities and human rights groups have already condemned the bombing of civilians in areas controlled by Syrian rebels who oppose the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, Putin’s ally.
Now the MoS can reveal that intelligence services are compiling a secret dossier of specific assaults, which could lead to the Russian President facing allegations of crimes against humanity at an international tribunal.
The revelation comes after Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond warned Moscow last month that strikes on hospitals ‘could amount to war crimes’. Last night, Foreign Office sources confirmed that the UK is ‘closely monitoring the situation’ in Syria.
The MoS understands that British investigators, including detectives from the Metropolitan Police Service’s war crimes unit, are at the British Embassy in Beirut.
According to Amnesty International, Russia is targeting hospitals in areas held by rebel groups in an attempt to terrorise local people into supporting President Assad.”
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3478556/Britain-s-secret-dossier-Putin-s-war-crimes-Syria-doctors-war-torn-country-say-Russia-targeting-hospitals-air-strikes-despite-ceasefire.html#ixzz42D6Z56lG
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
The DM is a propaganda front for the crazy liars in the British Establishment, it is often so full of S**t regarding Putin that it has No real credibility left.
Another element reducing the probability of hot war from Turkey and Saudi Arabia, but also bringing into question any victory derived from U.S.-signed diplomatic safeguards of Syrian autonomy, the U.S. is constructing not one but two air bases in Rojava.
So, the Americans expect to be around on the ground for the long haul; just ask Okinawan’s how hard it is to remove the U.S. military from coveted base space. Getting the Okinawan governor to honestly represent his people’s interest was an uphill fight. The Kurds will hardly do better, and may not want to.
Syrian National Sovereignty is as meaningful to Anglo-Zionism as Palestinian sovereignty is to Israel.
that all depends on a variety of options. I personally believe things will escalate. Therefore two questions remain. Will the coming conflict be nuclear or not(conventional). If nuclear, its over for everyone, no winners. If conventional, then Russia holds the upper hand. If everyone is clamoring for Syria-Iraq, than Russia need not oblige that situation but launch a massive reverse Barbarossa. No one, not even NATO can stop the bear. Russia has far too many armored/ mechanized divisions, airborne and logistical divisions. These can be covered nicely by s-400 and s-500 systems whish would negate the long arm of NATO’EU Air forces and conventional missiles (which is all NATO has, certainly not a robust on the ground conventional army). The Russians could drop their airborne troops in Poland and Baltics to neutralize bases, logistics etc while Russian Armored divisions (using the good quality roads in the European theatre and under the cover of s-400,s-500 and air forces ) would make good headway- a sort of modern day blitzkrieg (the Achilles heel in this is whether Russian logistical supply lines and airdrops could keep up). I personally believe the Europeans(especially the Eastern variety) wont know what hit them u until the Russian juggernaut reaches Austria. Then my take is that negotiations would probably start. Iran and the Shia of Iraq along with Syria and the Kurds could be tasked with causing as much trouble and problems for ill-conceived adventurism by Turkey, KSA, U.S COALITION in the general Levant. While all this is going on, the U.S can kiss it’s position in the Pacific/ China seas goodbye as U.S assets would be relocated and quickly to other parts of the world.
I’m still thinking about how China would fit in to this equation/war other than Taiwan going back to China. But I can say backed up by history that powers that don’t get involved in a World conflict of the stated size I have here stand to lose more than staying out. War of this sort is a great innovator among other things(economy etc) When negotiations unfold the Old U.N would be out and a new World mechanism would be introduced to resolve international and resolutions and conflict. Many would simply say the U.S. would come to Europe’s rescue, but forget that the U.S has very little outside Air armadas and some Nukes in Poland I believe. Ask yourself, how many tanks does England have stationed on mainland Europe? Also, the supposed Russian advance is not to hold territory but go as far as they can for the following negotiations.
Ok, I wrote all this right after I woke up from a nap…I think I will have a cup of coffee now.
I’m not worried about whether Turkey and Saudi Arabia are sane. I’m worried because I know that the US misLeadership is not.
“A more likely scenario is that the US, Turkey and the KSA are trying to find some way to rescue Daesh and to carve up some “Syrian Wahabistan” which could be used to keep Syria weak and bleeding for the foreseeable future. This is clearly the options the Israelis also favor: to break up Syria into a de facto Syrian Kurdistan in the north, a Wahabistan in the east and a secular Syrian republic along the Mediterranean coast.”
The Kurdistan part seems to in full swing. Looking at military maps, the US backed YPG in the northwest and along the northern border are taking over areas at a fast rate. First along the Iraq border moving south towards the Euphrates River, but also just north of Raqqa the YPG are only 27 km from the city. The YPG is also taking over the areas between the two fronts essentially parallel to the Euphrates. Its is looking like Kurdistan from Turkey to the Euphrates northern bank.
The US in now building a second air base near Kobani to add to the one in the northeast.
“The United States has nearly finished setting up an air base in Kurdish-controlled northern Syria and was proceeding with the construction of a second base for dual military and civilian use, a Kurdish website said on Sunday.
A spokesman for U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said, however, the United States was not taking control of any airfields in Syria.
The Erbil-based news website BasNews, quoting a military source in the Kurdish-backed Syria Democratic Forces (SDF), said most of the work on a runway in the oil town of Rmeilan in Hasaka was complete while a new air base southeast of Kobani, straddling the Turkish border, was being constructed.”
So the carving up of Syria is in full swing. The SAA attacking from the south of Raqqa is having to take each little hilltop so the pace has been slow compared to the Kurds.
Also, there has been an uprising in Raqqa against Daesh but this may also be a means of establishing a “Sunnistan” in Syria.
“REVOLT” AT RAQQA: ISIS ENDGAME ?
“Given that ISIS has been declared beyond the pale by all the parties to the Syria peace process, it also means that the Sunni political actors in eastern Syria and western Iraq (and their foreign sponsors, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar) who have provided a considerable portion of both the expertise and manpower for ISIS have to shed their ISIS label if they are to have a place of their own at the negotiating table. Not unlike Austria which was a rather enthusiastic component of the Third Reich, and which contrived to be “liberated” rather than “occupied” by the victorious powers of World War II, here too the Sunni tribes have to make it look like they are being liberated.
We have seen a very similar process unfold less than a decade ago in Iraq. Alarmed by the growing power of the Shia militias and political parties in Iraq, and also by the 2006 success of the Hezbollah against the IDF, the US decided to make a separate peace with the Sunni insurgents. This became the “Sunni Awakening”. However, the Sunnis were hardly “asleep” for the previous three years–they were in fact the insurgents, with only a small smattering of foreign fighters. Once the US came around and sought out the Sunnis as allies, the foreign fighters were mostly evacuated, a few most odious ones were “promoted” (to martyrdom), and the story became how the brave Sunni tribes defeated al-Qaeda which supposedly held them captive for three full years! This led to a series of US-brokered power-sharing deals among Iraq’s major ethnic groups before the arrangement broke down and gave us the Iraqi component of ISIS.
Now it looks like the Sunnis might be poised to repeat that disappearing trick, except that now they will “defeat” ISIS just as they “defeated” al-Qaeda” in 2006.”
and I still feel something is up in Lebanon.
“Jubeir also said Saudi Arabia will take delivery of French arms it originally ordered for Lebanon. In February, Saudi Arabia suspended a $3 billion aid package for the Lebanese army in response to Beirut’s failure to condemn attacks on Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran. “We made the decision that we will stop the $3 billion from going to the Lebanese military and instead they will be rediverted to the Saudi military,” Jubeir told journalists during a visit in Paris. “So the contracts (with France) will be completed but the clients will be the Saudi military”.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/32415/ | Al-Masdar News
Impressive post! Thank you!
Viva Syria! Go for it, Russia! Go away, USrael!
I prefer to be optimistic as well as being realistic but this calm before the storm is neither . Syria will continue to prevail and as for Turkey whatever the idea they have going to Iran the Iranians will put Turkey straight because they have not a chance in hell with Iran or Syria or their allies . Turkey is finished like their precious master the US and their sickening little allies.
Well well, todays cross talk entitled: the calm before the storm….need I say more. Keep up the good wlrk saker.