There is, amongst some, a strong sense of relief: Defense Minister Shoigu has declared that the formations deployed by Russia to western Russia will now return to their regular bases. Of course, the Ukrainians claim that they “deterred a Russian attack” while the Russians say that “the West got the message”. Is that so and, if yes, who is right?
Well, I think that we can dismiss the Ukie nonsense out of hand. Nobody out there, except the Ukrainians themselves, seriously believe that Russia “blinked”, if only because destroying the entire Ukrainian military would take Russia less than a week. In fact, the Ukrainians know that very well, they just won’t admit it.
Notice that while the Ukrainians claim that they deterred Russia, Russia does not claim to have deterred the Ukrainians, instead Russia declared that the Russian bear roared loud enough to deter the united West. Right there we have an important clue as to what has really happened.
I, however, submit that the causes which triggered the initial Ukrainian move to bring a large armored force right to the line of contact are still here. In other words, nothing has been resolved.
What happened is this: in response to the threat from both the Ukrainians and US/NATO, Russia simply demonstrated her ability to quickly concentrate a truly huge force (2 Armies and 2 Airborne Divisions) along her border. She also redeployed the Caspian Flotilla into the Black Sea, brought in large landing ships and, generally, “flexed her military muscles” in order to convey a clear message to the Ukrainians, the Europeans and the US:
- To the Ukrainians: attack the Donbass and you will die, as for the Ukraine, it will break apart into several new successor states.
- To the EU: if a war starts, you will even lose the very little agency you have left and your economy will not be competitive against the USA.
- To the USA: if a war starts, you will face a stark choice: lose face or start a full-scale war against Russia.
Yes, so far, this strategy has proved very effective. The Ukrainians were clearly terrified and the EU showed no enthusiasm for that war (except the UK, which risks very little, and the Poles who specialize in stupid historical decisions). As for “Biden”, he realized that a full scale war against Russia was suicidal.
So are we now out of the danger zone?
Absolutely not. There is still one thing the West is determined to achieve: to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian. For the US Neocons, to see the two Slavic brothers kill each other is old dream come true. Furthermore, the US still needs to bring the EU down to its economic knees to force it to buy energy, services and goods from the USA. Last, but not least, the Ukraine has lost any appeal it might have had for the USA: the only thing which the Ukraine can still offer is to be a thorn in Russia’s side.
And then, there is the “Ze” regime in Kiev: not viable, not reformable, the Ukraine is has been comprehensively deindustrialized and now the Ukrainians are dying in huge numbers from the COVID pandemic: Banderastan is the ultimate failed state, worse than many African ones, in fact.
Yes, “Ze” was told by his masters to “cool it” and, so far, he has obeyed, but that solves exactly none of his problems. Worse, there are a lot of well-armed Ukronazi deathsquads who still have the means to create some kind of incident which would reignite the whole thing again. Also, it is worth remembering that the Brits and the Ukies both have a proven record of successful covert operations, which by definition include false flags.
In other words, nothing has really changed. Yes, right now, Uncle Shmuel is trying to find out what his options are, and he will come up with a corrected plan (remember, Neocons are stupid, yes, but they are also clever in a short term, “horizontal” way). Right now “Biden” is licking his wounds from the embarrassing faceplant with the attempt to kill Lukashenko and the (frankly silly) nonsense coming out of the Czech Republic. There are some signs that at least the Germans realize what is really going on and who is truly trying to screw them over (while most of the German political class is corrupt to the bone, some German politicians are sensitive to the mood of the German business community).
Simply put: all we are observing today is a short term reprieve, nothing more.
The Russians know that, and it is safe to say that while some of their forces will demonstratively retreat, others will stay. More importantly, now that this operational redeployment of key formations has been rehearsed, very publicly, the Russians have shown the US/NATO that Russia can deal with any military threat (in contrast, it would take NATO months to bring a big enough force to eastern Europe to represent a credible threat).
Finally, Ze has made a rather ridiculous speech telling Putin that they should meet. Putin’s response was perfect: you want to meet with me to discuss our bilateral relations (which, incidentally, you have destroyed) – sure. No problem. But if you want to discuss the Donbass, you have to engage in direct talks with the LDNR, as the Minsk Agreement and the Steinmeier formula, which you have signed, stipulate. In other words, back to square one.
This is a situation of not one, but two “thorns”: the Ukronazi Banderastan is definitely a thorn in the side of Russia, while the LDNR is a thorn in the side of Banderastan. Make a guess, which side can put up with its thorn longer than the other side?
Many have forgotten it, but in a moment of anger, Poroshenko did tell Putin “take the Donbass if you want it!”, and Putin declined. Since then, the Russians have shown over and over again that they do NOT want the Donbass. At most, they might have to take it to save it from genocide, but even in this case the Russians have no intentions of invading the rest of the Ukraine only to have to deal with 1) Ukronazi insurgencies and 2) rebuilding this failed state from its current zero all the way back. And that is the worst Russian threat not only for the Ukraine, but for all of Europe: Russia does NOT want, or need, the Ukraine and Russia won’t take it over, even in case of a full-scale war. At most, Russia will repeat what she did in the 08.08.08 war: defang the Nazi regime by obliterating the Ukrainian military, and then let the regime naturally collapse.
Anyway, I will write a more detailed analysis of this situation next week, but right now I submit that all that is happened is a limited and temporary deescalation, not any kind of return to even semi-normality (and the Ukies are still murdering LDNR civilians every day, including with heavy weapons).
So, what do you think? Back to sanity, or only a reprieve?
As a Czech born in Prague i must apologize to all Russians for our stupid political representation. Most of Czech people don’t believe the story quickly wrote by CIA about explosions in Vrbětice. It’s only stupid way how get out Rosatom from nuclear Dukovany tendr.
I have sympathy for the Czech people. Many of us in Europe are victims of our politicians, Norway included. We want to leave in peace with everybody, Russia included. Russia liberated the northern province of Finnmark from the Nazi occupation in 1945 and then left for home. This is something to remember.
The big problem is the US occupants in Europe.
“Russia liberated the northern province of Finnmark from the Nazi occupation in 1945 and then left for home.”
Very true. But before leaving, the Norwegians had to promise not to let foreign troops into that area. Sadly, the Norwegians have not respected this agreement. Not only were the politicians dishonest, but they were also stupid. Now, the Russians have cross-hairs on Oslo, Trondheim and so on.
When the Soviet Union broke up, the Soviet military maps of Norway leaked out. They turned out to be more detailed than the maps the Norwegians themselves had. I was in Oslo at that time. I remember how it made a scandal.
there is a simple way of assessing who is rising and who is falling, who grows strong and who grows weaker.
compile 2 lists of accomplishments (economic, fiscal, innovation, social cohesion and well being, quality of life, infrastructure improvments and creations, educational, healthcare) that are now REALITY, not PR but actual 3d reality that touch the lives of real human beings
1 list is what the usa and europe have actually brogu8ht into existence starting in year 2000-2021
2 second list is russia and china on the same terms and same date period
everything else is obfuscation and bullshit
now compare and contrast these 2 lists
how much more clear doe sit have to be to ascertain who is going positively forward and who is not
Another way, Know your self and know your enemy and you need not fear. A thousand battles will bring a thousand victories.
He who knows not himself and know not his enemy is going to lose.
Evaluate the “knowing” afoot and the directions of change…
Above mostly paraphrase of the Master…
For my contribution> Pirates make plunder. Anything else they do supports this and is a lesser value to them. They hold labor in contempt and money as their god. When pirate empires run out of places to plunder, they lose. First, however, they “lose it”, so to say. Thus them what the gods would destroy, they first make mad.
Ask, then, who is crazy and who is not, and you can make a good bet.
Best to all. I really hope this works out!
there is an (for me essential reading article) on strategic culture: BlackRock, Vanguard & co; which if you haven’t already read, covers much of the background & substructure of your comments.
Comedian Zelensky (remember, there is a trans-Atlantic control-cable that runs from the US State Department right into the back of automaton-Zelensky’s head) moved “his” (US) military equipment and NATO(US)-trained “Ukrainian” troops to very close to the contact line and started shelling whatever it wanted on the eastern side of the contact line. One or more children were killed on the eastern side of the contact line.
Apparently, all of this did not cross any, how shall I put it, really serious Russian “red lines”, unless, of course, what Russia then did — massing Russian military assets where it did then, and then moved them to where they are today — was in realty Russia’s non-proportional, non-tit-for-tat, asymmetrical response to the crossing of one of Russia’s really serious “red lines”. If the latter was indeed the case, it was indeed non-proportional, because, AFAIK, in Russia’s response no children were killed by Russian weapons on “Zelensky’s” side of the contact line.
So, by simply moving “his” (US-remote-controlled) military forces close to the contact line and killing some people on the eastern side of the contact line, “he” (the US) was able to see, and fully examine, stem to stern, Russia’s military response to automaton-Zelensky’s (the US’s) provocation.
Terminator Nation used, and is still using, its eyes, ears and brains to make careful calculations of the situation IT has been presented with near Russia’s border. IT decided at that moment that IT could not accomplish IT’S mission to kill its target. Instead of attacking further at this time, IT has said “I’ll be back”, and turned around and walked a short distance back into “Ukraine’s” military parking lot, already knowing what IT’S next move will be. This is “where we are” at the moment in the US’s Operation Ukraine. Here’s what IT will do next.
I will end by saying that I desperately want the people of Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, North Korea, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, India, Pakistan, and of all other nations to live long and prosper. To put it simply, in order to do that they must permanently stop Terminator Nation. In order to do that, they must first understand what, not who, they are being literally attacked by 24/7. What they are being attacked by is a system, an economy that requires perpetual war!
The victim-nations’ actions, not words, indicate to me that they still, after all these years of observing the behavior of their enemy, do not truly understand what they are dealing with. If they did, they would have already taken the action which will certainly, ultimately be necessary to stop it. Remember……., It can’t be bargained with; It can’t be reasoned with; It doesn’t feel pity or remorse or fear and it absolutely will not stop, ever, until Russia and all other nations are conquered.
For a real-world, living example of It, think of Terminator Nation as a very hungry, and getting hungrier and more dangerous by the day, Great White Shark swimming around in a getting-smaller-by-the-day salt-water swimming pool, and you are swimming in the same pool.
I feel it necessary to give the “papal apology”. I’m very sorry if what I have said has offended you.
Pirates without empire would be obliged to become farmers, I think. Thus as the Master Sun Tsu says the highest form is to convert your enemy into a friend… of course genuine friendship in the example would, one sees, necessitate a change in character from plunder to husbandry, eh? I suppose this predicts that long strategy of RU and Chine is to strip away the empire’s subject States. I do not see that violence is unavoidable. I do see it’s quite likely.
But, there is one factor Ukrainians kill civilians in Donbas every day, and as the Russian army withdrew, they increased those killings, and it will continue, so: civilians are being killed, how to stop it, and how to starve this evil orgy of urcophajists .
The entire B1 Bomber fleet was just grounded for fuel pump issues. America is a mess. Im sn American. We are weak right now. Putin and Russia had one chance to display a show of force. They should never retreat. Putin blinked. And the EU/NATO/US/Zionists will take full advantage. Putin just doesn’t get it. They are coming for Russia! Russians don’t seem to get it. Their fate is sealed if they don’t fight. Im disgusted by what I see as an American.
Nick, Russia did not blink. Please read why in many comments here and the other new Saker open thread.
Russia’s fate is sealed, but not the fate you suggest. They are in control.
Two engines on a B1 parked in Norway were destroyed on the tarmac recently when the engine sucked in -wait for it- a tablet computer.
No need for Russians to attack US assets – “we” can wreck them all by ourselves!
One tablet destroyed two jet engines ? That must have been a magick tablet, just as magical as those two airplanes that destroyed three buildings in NYC on Sept. 11, 2001.
If you have a link, I’d love to see it.
I can’t help but wonder if part of the reason Russia backed off here is to give itself and some of its “friends” time to get their plans in order? Various commentators have suggested Russia’s ground forces would find progress easier from late spring. I wonder how the AZ Empire would cope with Russia engaging Ukraine at the same time that China engages Taiwan and Iran engages Israel? The US would likely face its own “Suez” moment (i.e. an “end of empire” moment).
A Rússia não recuou, ela está lá!
Não compreendo essa comparação de “Rússia” com Urso, o “Urso” a União Soviética, sim, um Urso.
Putin é um Tigre Siberiano, estou no Brasil, já ví pessoalmente como Onças Pintadas ou Suçuaranas (Onças Pardas) caçam.
Os felinos da América do Sul são muito parecidos com os felinos da Taiga Siberiana (onde há muita vegetação), caçam diferente dos felinos africanos.
Putin é assim, e age como um Tigre Siberiano, não se iludam, um bote ou uma patada ou mordida são mortais.
Yandex translate. Mod:
Russia has not retreated, it is there!
I do not understand this comparison of “Russia” With Bear, the “bear” the Soviet Union, yes, A Bear.
Putin is a Siberian Tiger, I am in Brazil, I have seen personally how Jaguars or Suçuaranas (Brown Jaguars) hunt.
The felines of South America are very similar to the felines of the Siberian Taiga (where there is a lot of vegetation), they hunt different from the African felines.
Putin is like that, and acts like a Siberian Tiger, make no mistake, a dinghy or a kick or bite is deadly.
How do you trap mice?
You position a trap, put some irresistible loot, load the trap’s spring, and walk away.
I am sure the Russian trap is locked and loaded.
RE: Marcel Leutenegger on April 25, 2021 · at 1:43 am EST/EDT
“the deescalation in the Donbass”
” the Russian trap is locked and loaded”
Why concentrate on the singular ?
That would suggest that some are emulating the opponents including in rates of productivity.
Yes, the EU can use Ukraine to annoy Russia. But this is a rather expensive hobby, because corrupt Ukraine devours vast sums of money. Therefore, Ukraine is more likely to be a nail in the coffin for Europe than for Russia. But if Europe no longer pays for the failed Ukraine, it will collapse and automatically fall back to Russia. If Russia wants this. In the case of Ukraine, time is also on Russia’s side this time, just as it was with the decline of the USA as a military power.
Team deepstate is running a script. Whenever they get punched in the face, they go hide awaiting further instructions from their tiny cabal of masters.
These nasty things deserve what awaits them.
I wonder what’s the US after with the recognition of the Armenian genocide.
The US doesn’t give a nickle about Armenians or the Genocide.
Biden and his neocon/neolib/ziocon handlers have decided to stick a pin into Turkey.
Perhaps this time Turkey didn’t make a big payment to get it spiked.
I see you also wonder. Let’s hope someone comes up with a good interpretation of this move.
Putin’s geopolitical jungle book (Pepe Escobar) frames it (Biden et al) thus as Tabaqui the rabid hydrophobic dish licker — although biting Erdogan he might catch something worse:
“It was the jackal—Tabaqui, the Dish-licker—and the wolves of India despise Tabaqui because he runs about making mischief, and telling tales, and eating rags and pieces of leather from the village rubbish-heaps. But they are afraid of him too, because Tabaqui, more than anyone else in the jungle, is apt to go mad, and then he forgets that he was ever afraid of anyone, and runs through the forest biting everything in his way. We call it hydrophobia, but they call it dewanee—the madness—and run.”
The US, through its NATO partner, Turkey, launched the war on Nagorno Karabakh to place there a jihadist stronghold in the northern border of Iran, similar to Idlib, as advanced post to invade or sabotage Iran.
The poor management of the war by Pashinyan, be it willing or unwilling ( I feel inclined for the first option, as the take over of Artsakh could well have been the prize promised to Turkey for its important participation…), got him at the verge of being deposed by the military and enraged crowds who lost their fellow citizens in the thousands dozens.
Enduring strong pressure through all these months, Pashinyan has vowed to step down by end of April.
Recall this is the guy of Soros´color revolution who overthrew ole legitimate former president.
Biden is trying to ingratiate himself with the Armenian people so that they do not throw his Sorosite to the trash bin through this recognition, demonstrating in the interim that, as it is US custom, he does not care either for the Turkish allies or the Armenians.
I hope the Armenians, who are very cultivated people have learnt the lesson on the reliability they can concede to anything Western, at least at this point of history, if anytime anything could be relied upon…Recall the promise made to Gorbachev on not absorbing the former Warsaw Pact sphere into NATO and the promise given to Medvedev on Libya….
That this is a trick, and part of the current squid ink policy by the Biden administration, it is proved by the puzzlement it has provoked in people like Javier Solana, former NATO secretary general who, moreover, assures he is currently being vaccinated with “Pfeiffer” and not having any “sympotm” so far…
One wonders whether other actresses would be available for the people who are going in mass to the vaccinodromos influenced by these minions and their propaganda apparatus, and whether what it is being inoculated is a vaccine or a disease in fact, as it is able to cause “symptoms”..
An illustration on who is the people who are at the helms…well, obviously at the visible helms, in other dark offices hide other people who knows and manipulate everything…like Thierry Breton….who are really in charge of our foreign policy…unelected people from the US banks…
We never believed for a moment Federica Mogherini was really in charge, as it is not Borrell…
Btw, Russian has always recognized Armenian Genocide.
The US/EU “green deal” requires huge natural resources beyond fossil fuels. Russia has plenty of critical materials. There is no way US/EU will give up trying to gain full control of these riches.
“The US/EU “green deal” requires huge natural resources beyond fossil fuels”
Please don’t believe what they say. They are not interested in the forests or uranium. All they care about is the oil and gas.
There is a massive amount of coal under the North Sea – which they could use remotely controlled vehicles to extract – but they have forgotten how to use their brains. They believe their own hype about the fake Renewable Energy and that is why they are shutting down the German nuclear power stations. Recently, they shut down some coal fired power station in Germany. Only one week later, they rushed to reopen it so as to offset a drop in wind. Hilarious. Monkeys.
A reprieve. The “problem,” its existence, has not gone away.
“What about the deescalation in the Donbass?”
The empire’s failure to provoke a Russian response & the spectacular faceplant from the failed Minsk putsch has diverted their efforts to an asymmetric plan B: escalation in Syria.
Yesterday: West turns OPCW into tool of pressure on unwanted countries – Russia’s envoy
Today: Militants plotting provocation with use of toxic agents Syria’s Idlib – defense ministry
Slightly off-topic but ominously disappointing:
Iran was under the impression that Lavrov signed a strategic agreement with them for the Russian navy to protect civilian cargo ships supplying essentials to besieged Syria. Alas this happened today:
‘Drone Attack’ leaves Iranian tanker ablaze off Syrian coast – reports
The ship was at anchor off the coast of Syria, well within range of takfiri drones. I suppose the anti-drone defenses have not been poised to counter these cheap drones. So close to shore, the task falls to Syrian air defense systems, not a “blue water navy.” The ships anchor in a relatively small areas, and I suppose that area will get anti-drone coverage soon. I suppose the Syrians will man the defenses themselves, but it will be interesting to see whether the equipment comes from Russia or Iran. I’d fall off my chair laughing, if China were to showcase an anti-drone defense system, but that’s not in the cards yet.
I’ve been thinking about this for a while and have come to the conclusion that the US will never attack Russia directly. Rather, the US bears a striking resemblance to the weasel. It is sneaky, conniving, and extremely deceptive. Like the weasel which is able to squeeze through a small crack in order to enter the chicken coup, and then kill a dozen chickens for sport, even so, the US finds a way to enter a country and take it over through deception and bribery. Almost like sport, it doesn’t care how many suffer or die as long as it achieves it’s purpose. The US will no doubt find a hole to squeeze in and enter the Crimean Gov’t and/or population and then create a color revolution against the Russia Gov’t. Eventually, it will find another hole and enter the Russian Gov’t through the same means and for the same purpose. My advice is to kill the weasel at first opportunity.
I must confess i didnt understand your views.
In summary, do you prefer as more fit to truth that Poland, USa, UK,
The Baltics as enemies or just opponents.
and how about Kiev themselves, which you think apropriate?
And the reasons why Putin used to call them ”partners’ or ‘colleagues’, are they ( in)defensable in your view?
And so after 30 years of Russian Federation, two entirely new generations, and a diametrically different way of thinking , do you really imply
this is just a transcendence of the URSS? So how about the age
component of the Communist party voters, mostly aged people?
As to old ways of thinking, I can recall a NEW way of thinking that took place in the Ieltsin golden period: the crowd and fantastic Feast that moscovites did downtown to celebrate the arrival of the 1st McDonalds junk food facility in Russia…
They apparently are now less enthusiastic.
RE: augusto on April 24, 2021 · at 7:46 pm EST/EDT
“I must confess i didnt understand your views.
“Representative democracy” is predicated on the illusion that all have the facility to “fully understand” and that all hold “views/opinions/knowledge/experience” of equal validity.” , thereby seeking to deny the utility of facility/professionalism and varying access to opportunities to test hypotheses through implementation.
“Representative democracy” also encourages reliance on short term evaluation horizons and linear thinking enhanced by the conflation of belief/thought.
“Representative democracy” further encourages the assignment of greater significance to places where “representatives” ply their trade – non-Russians typically conflating Russia with Moscow plus St. Petersburg, facilitating opportunities of rendering both cities as Potemkin villages upon which the opponents tended to focus.
“Representative democracy” is an attempt to maintain a linearly modified “status quo” in denial of dynamic history/time, hence representative democracy dissuades understanding of lateral processes including life, which like understanding is a lateral process whereby components interact in varying assays, velocities and trajectories.
All components of lateral processes have half-lives of varying time/velocity.
Consequently it is understandable why you didn’t understand my “views” and continue not to understand the data directed through this portal with the designated virtual designator MagdaTam, despite your infered belief that you do understand and seek to summarise.
“as enemies or just opponents”
Framing conditions and reflects perception and is widespread among non-practitioners as the comment below illustrates:
RE Larchmonter445 on April 24, 2021 · at 12:22 am EST/EDT
“the enemies of Russia.”
This phrase is saturated in emotionalism and hence practitioners tend to be of the view that Russia does not have enemies but opponents.
This is also a component of the reasons why opponents are sometimes refered to as colleagues or partners in recognition of opponents complicity in their own transcendence.
The Soviet Union is being transcended by the Russian Federation, including through the transcendence of ideological mystifiers such as “enemies of the peopleness”.
Some in Russia have not wholly escaped from old ways of thinking since ideological practices have half-lives as is the case of any lateral process.”
“And the reasons why Putin used to call them ”partners’ or ‘colleagues’ “
Like many you seek to assign prime/sole significance to Mr. Putin thereby obscuring that most practitioners refer to opponents as “partners” or “colleagues”, and continue to do so since doing so increases/maintains strategic options.
“As to old ways of thinking, I can recall a NEW way of thinking that took place in the Ieltsin golden period: the crowd and fantastic Feast that moscovites did downtown to celebrate the arrival of the 1st McDonalds junk food facility in Russia… “
The opponents regularly seek to exagerate significances by positing that products consitute “a new way of thinking” replacing “old ways of thinking”.
As a function of limited opportunities to test hypotheses non-practitioners tend to rely on belief/interpretation.
In the period of 1992/3 the “narod’s” experience of the “United States of America” tended to be limited to foods, including chicken chemically cleaned to minimise faeces which were often donated by the “United States of America” to subsidise the industry in the “United States of America”.
One of the first companies to introduce “American” food products into the Soviet Union was Mars, hence the saying “Snickers for your knickers” quite popular with teenagers of a wry disposition and sexual curiosity..
If you are refering to the McDonald’s cafe on Gorky Street across from the telephone station in June/July 1993, this was the subject of an “attitudinal” survey as a contribution to a larger strategic plan to continue lateral restructuring of the agriculture/food retail/logistics industries in the CIS and subsequently the Russian Federation.
This was a continuation of studies by MGU (Moscow State University) and others (excluding Gosplan as far as possible) into the agriculture/food retail/logistics industries in the Soviet Union, since for example in respect of potatoes in 1984 the ratio of potatoed consumed and seed potatoes planted was among the worst in the world.
To return to McDonalds in Gorky Street in June/July 1993.
Before entry the main motivators for potential consumers was curiosity.
During stay in the cafe many remarked on the perceived variance between the décor and the product.
On exit many remarked that the décor offered a place to meet friends in the middle of town without too much expense, close to various metro stations, since the majority of Muscovites tend not to live in Central Moscow..
No one made reference to “NEW way of thinking” or being part of the “McDonald’s generation”.
It may be unconnected, but within a short period McDonalds cafe in Gorky Street had closed their toilets so customers could only use the toilets after collecting the key from the counter, and the time allowed in the cafe to consumers was restricted.
Whilst the lateral processes in resprect of the agriculture/food retail/logistics industries in the Russian Federation continues.
It’s a mistake to think that Russia doesn’t want the Donbass. It’s true that Russia doesn’t want just the Donbass. According to Zahar Prilepin, Putin supposedly declared that the ultimate goal is the reintegration of all of Ukraine. It’s not a short term historical or geo-political objective. It’s a case of bringing home a prodigal “sibling”, going through an identity crisis. It will take time. It will be painful. Using force is counterproductive, except to deter bouts of aggression and self mutilation. Parts of Ukraine may have to “die” in the process – i.e. join other states or turn into a consumerist, European ersatz of a country, essentially, anti-Russia. Most will be save it. To paraphrase Greta Garbo’s Ninotchka: “we’ll have fewer but better Ukrainians”.
i too know that but i prefer to keep it to myself.
Anyway, since the cat is out of the bag:
Russia,the elder brother, will be able to bring the rebellious brother back home if others like the US, Poland and Hungary cooperate with certain steps.
I am hoping by end of this year. They owe Putin for playing along with the pandemic.
Vatican never give up.
It would be very funny indeed if citizens of Nova Rossia were not killed regularly by the ukronazies. I guess that Russia can destroy any attacking force without setting a foot in Donbass. More to that I think that the decision centres would be targeted. Commands in chief are always agreeing to send troops to a butchery, but if they are themselves at risk, they will think twice.
If Israel could not intercept a missile landing close to the Dimona plant, what could the ukronazies do?
“Russia can destroy any attacking force without setting a foot in Donbass”
My understanding is that it only takes a few minutes to set up a mortar close to civilian houses. That makes it difficult to respond in kind to such attacks.
Here’s some media coverage of the deescalation by Canada’s CBC:
”Vladimir Putin calls off his army but it may not be going far”
“All we’re seeing is a reprieve”
Absolutely right. Barbara Tuchman in her delightful book “The march of folly” describes a similar situation that may be useful to understand the situation in Ukraine, in her case the apparently suicidal decision by Imperial Japan to attack Pearl harbour. To briefly summarize, her thesis is that the Japanese high command had concluded that, sooner or later they’d be drawn into a conflict with the US over their imperial ambitions in SE Asia, and then, sooner or later, they’d be defeated by the US. The only hope for vicory was a sudden and decisive blow to knock the US out of the war – something similar to the USSR’s defeat of the Japanese at Khalkin Gol in Mongolia.
I think the same fundamental situation is quite clear to the Kiev regime. Sooner or later, their overthrow – whether due to abandonment by their foreign backers, internal coups from hardliners or direct deffeat by the Novorossiyans – defeat is certain. Only by engineering a broader conflict can they hope to survive, all other roads lead to certain defeat. In such circumstances, any approach with a prospect of victory – however unlikely – seems pretty attractive.
“Barbara Tuchman in her delightful book “The march of folly” describes a similar situation that may be useful to understand the situation in Ukraine. “
“Knowledge” like life is a lateral process of interaction of access, facility and time.
Ms. Tuchman wrote her books including The March of Folly at a time when her facility was conditioned by restricted access to international archives..
If the subject is of deeper interest/significance perhaps reference also to :
Title : Japan 1941
Author : Eri Hotta
Publisher : Knopf
Year of publication : 2013
ISBN : 978-0-307-59401-3
Title : Pan-Asianism and Japan’s War 1931 – 1945
Author : Eri Hotta
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Year of publication : 2007
would significantly add data, including complexities, that Ms. Tuchman did nor include in “The march of folly”.
Magda: Thanks for the information.
My key thesis, however, remains: When certain defeat is staring you in the face, any other option, however risky, starts to look good. I think that’s absolutely the case for the regime in Kiev, notwithstanding whatever might have been true for Imperial Japan.
Out of curiosity, would you be so kind as to briefly summarize your understanding of Imperial Japan’s situation in the runup to World War II?
Stephen T Johnson on April 25, 2021 · at 1:51 pm EST/EDT
“Out of curiosity, would you be so kind as to briefly summarize your understanding of Imperial Japan’s situation in the runup to World War II?”
People route broadcasts through portals for many purposes, whilst portals are pathways not destinations.
Satisfying curiosities does not form part of my purpose in routing broadcasts through portals, nor does routing broadcasts through portals facilitate/form a significant part of my purpose – making reference to certain books based on certain methods in this instance did informed by the caution don’t look at the cover read the book, whilst mentoring didn’t.
Such were “the rules of engagement” in context.
The above is a collegial statement of fact, not an attack as some might interpret.
Enjoy your journey.
The problem is that today’s elites as well as the masses, Russia’s not excepted, are largely feminised and loyal to the globalist system. They are Egyptian slaves par excellence: spayed, neutered, and immunised (“vaccinated”), to not mention utterly castrated. Concepts higher than postmodernism have been largely bred out of them. The only thing that remains is perception management: a farce designed to foster the illusion that there is still an “opposition,” even patriotic, left to control. Hence the utility of imaginary enemies. Above all, they are terrified of three things: death, duty, and defiance. A fourth fear: change. Nihilism, treason, and abnegation are today’s raison d’être threefold. Today’s “leaders” are custodians of the system, acting on behalf of its creators and overlords. They are CEOs of the Corporate State, Inc., rather than leaders of the organic nation. In short, they represent the Masonic financiers, not the nation. They are formless pawns, insubstantial vessels. They are ciphers representing fictitious entities headed by Reptilians. As the Prose Edda drily noted, a coward hopes to live forever, if only he can shun warfare. He “gets along to get along,” denying the undeniable, that is, the existence of irreconcilability. He is a nullity and nonentity, a daydreamer and puppet, effeminate and passive. Above all, he betrays his own in order to hold onto his wispy little fortune(s). He is utterly devoid of Honour, nor does he know her. He “stands for nothing” and “will fall for anything.” His modus operandi is an end in itself: “mindless self-indulgence.” And so do Russia’s elites betray her people, her ethnic kinsmen, in Donbas’ and elsewhere, leaving them to bleed slowly, agonisingly, till the day nukes fly overhead. Decisive action in service of transcendent, moral objectivity is a thing of the uttermost past.
So, what do you think? Back to sanity, or only a reprieve?
Only a reprieve. This whole “exercise” was NATO wanting to:
(a) Do things on the cheap (i.e. get Ukrainians + Jihadist mercenaries to do the killing),
(b) Test Russia’s resolve & determination,
(c) Probe Russia’s defences, and
(d) Try to score some propaganda victories.
Count on Uncle Scam & its lackeys in Australia & Japan to put pressure on Russia’s weak spot: the Russian Far East. That will be the neocon attempt to split China & Russia with the narratives of:
*Weak China cannot help Vladivostok, &
*Treacherous Russia secretly supports Taiwan separatists
We shall see how effective the joint training missions between China & Russia have been. Hopefully they will have creative non-violent solutions that will surprise everybody.
In the past, how did the Obama regime respond to open defeat of conventional forces in Donbass? Their answer was to stage a false flag attack on a civilian aircraft.
Having failed to get their provocation and war this round, do not be surprised if they do something like that again. They will do something horrific and blame it on Russia.
Attention should be paid, by withdrawing its forces from the border with Ukraine, Russia opened an increase in the killing of civilians in Donbas, in the same way as if it opened the way for the Uki to take Donbas and return Eastern Ukraine under fascist control. There is no way Moscow can justify the increased shelling of civilians in Donbas that it opened.
Increased shelling of civilians – and of soldiers – is the price that the people have been paying for over seven years, and that cost is weighed against the costs of a larger war. I suppose the DNR and LNR have suitable equipment to take out some of the UAF artillery, but of course no one should expect the Vorentorg to be publicized. Such a spotlight would only encourage the jackals.
An historic (I think) political essay by none other than D. M. !!
It’s highly relevant..compares Caribbean Crises to what just happened an’ ain’t over.
““Avoiding a clash with great powers does not indicate cowardice, but wisdom, because sacrificing oneself is never an advantage anywhere”. Preface to “The Art of War” by Sun Tzu by N. Konrad
In recent years, relations between Russia and the US have shifted from competitiveness to confrontation, effectively going back to the Cold War era. The sanctions pressure, threats, conflict behaviour and defence of selfish interests are plunging the world into a state of permanent instability.”…
(There can be no permanent condition of instability, only a period of instability followed by a transition to a new stability, which in the case, would be nuclear war, of course, and death.)
Greatly appreciate the recent Open Threads dedicated to the Donbass/Ukraine situation.
It has allowed the many dedicated members of the Saker Community to share their views and valuable information/sources.
A quick question – With the political situation in Armenia developing now that Soro’s/NATO’s guy has resigned, do you see Armenia continuing to drift towards the West or maybe a closer alignment back to Russia considering the historical defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh? Or does Biden recognising the Armenian Holocaust mean the US will look to court Armenia again and play it against Russia?
Stay safe & Keep up the fabulous work!
Hmmmm. America recognizes Armenian genocide.
Is the Biden Administration trying to break up NATO ? Erdogan is not going to be pleased.
Reprieve! the West (Israel) will fight
the west can fight or slink away into post hegemonic global ignominy.
Where would that leave Israel?
Israel with fight to the last American standing!
There is a theory Israel will not last more than 20 years. Wishful thinking? Preposterous? Maybe? Let me tell you about a bug that shut down the entire world…
The Russians prepared for a dismal and real-life scenario. The west behaved and acted according to a false or faux reality which is a type of hyper reality. It is good to see the latter understand words have no say against fire.