by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog
Just before Trump announced that American troops are to leave Syria “immediately”, many compatriots, friends and analysts were wondering what could be the next event that might change the course of future events in northern and eastern Syria. The first reaction to the news of Trump ordering his troops to leave Syria took many by surprise. That said, we have to wait and see if Trump does not wake up tomorrow changing his mind. The reason behind Trump’s decision to withdraw is not very important and as far as this article is concerned, it is irrelevant. If he wants to believe that he is leaving victoriously, that’s fine, for as long as he does leave. That said, the sudden resignation of Mattis clearly indicates that the former top gun does not see it with the same spectacles. Either way, the withdrawal, if it happens, may end up to be a long and protracted process that could take weeks, months and perhaps years, and the manner in which it happens opens the doors for many possibilities and contingencies.
Before Trump’s decision, there were two serious nagging and unresolved problems in Syria standing in the way of ending the war and the commencement of rebuilding the war-ravaged nation; and they were the ongoing presence of the terrorists in Idlib and the presence of American troops in the North East.
Idlib has been the sink hole of Syria, a place where all terrorists ended up. In any major battles, all the way from the battle of Al-Qusayr in 2013 to the most recent battle of Daraa in 2018, all of which ended up with terrorists defeat, negotiations ended up with militants leaving the areas in secure buses and settling in Idlib. No one really knows how many of them are there at the present moment because the overall figure includes those who were bunkered there from the beginning. The estimates run from as low as 10,000 to a high 100,000. The truth is that we don’t know. The figure could well be outside those estimates; but they have to be huge nonetheless.
Regardless of the number, they are the only terrorists left who answer to Erdogan and/or who can be manipulated by him. If they don’t, they either have to fight to death or leave. But given that all of their supply lines come from Turkey, they don’t have much of a choice but to kowtow to the Sultan. The Sultan is using his loyal “troops” as a trump card for two reasons; first of all to continue to have a de-facto military presence in government-controlled areas in Syria, and secondly and most importantly perhaps, is because he regards the terrorists as his Muslim brothers, and it is his “duty” to protect them.
This was why when Russia and Syria were making preparations to go inside Idlib and clean it up, he told them that he could achieve the same objective with negotiations and that they can leave Idlib for him to deal with. A few months later, Russia and Syria are still waiting for him to come true to his word.
So what is Erdogan exactly trying to do in northern Syria and why are Putin and Assad putting up with him?
Before Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria, it was clear that Putin understands Erdogan too well. He knows that Erdogan has an Achilles Heel, two of them in fact; one in each foot. In many previous articles, I have reiterated that Erdogan is incurably both an Islamist and a Turkish nationalist; even though the ideologies are in total contradiction with each other. And even though he is cunning, calculating and prepared to wait for the right moment to act, when it comes to either nationalism or religion, he regresses into a programmed robot that is simply unable to think and act rationally; and Putin has been trying to use this weakness of Erdogan to serve his own objectives.
Erdogan wants to protect Al-Nusra in Idlib, and this is why Putin convinced Assad to leave the Idlib carrot in the hands of Erdogan, not necessarily because he believes that Erdogan will indeed deal with it in the manner that he should, but simply to present to him that Russia regards him like a credible partner.
On the other hand, the simmering tension between Ankara and Washington over the Kurdish issue has been coming to a head for a long time. Ever since America pledged support to Syrian Kurds, Erdogan, in blunt terms, has been clearly saying to his American “allies” that they must choose between Turkey and the Kurds. He has been making serious threats that he will attack Manbij and clean it up from Kurdish militants even if American troops do not leave.
Erdogan’s nationalist Achilles heel has left him in serious discord with his biggest NATO ally.
Given that the nationalist aspect of Erdogan is prepared to risk falling out with NATO and even fighting American troops in Syria just to prevent the creation of an independent Kurdish state south of his border, he was putting himself in the position of the former Afghani Mujahideen who were fighting their own war, and at the same time, serving another purpose for another group. With this stance, Erdogan presented that he was prepared to fight with America at any level, even militarily; because to him, the Kurdish issue was a redline that he was not prepared to see crossed.
For a while, a fair while in fact, Russia and Syria stood back and watched how the American-Turkish impasse morphed. It seemed that any potential fight would not only serve to prevent the creation of an independent Kurdish state, but would also end up with American withdrawal from Syria, and thus serving the objectives of both Syria and Russia.
And even though in theory it is the role and duty of Syria and her army to liberate the North-East from American presence, this course of action did not only risk a major confrontation with NATO and possible widespread bombing all over the country, but this option will also risk a direct confrontation between America and Russia on Syrian soil.
This was the only reason why Russia and Syria seemed prepared to put the resolution of the Idlib dilemma on hold. This is the only rational reason as to why they did not coerce Erdogan to rush into any quick action there before the problem of American presence has been resolved.
Knowingly or inadvertently, the American withdrawal from Syria, if it happens, will take a huge bargaining chip away from the hand of Erdogan in as far as his relationship with Russia is concerned. Erdogan will no longer be able to say to Russia that if Russia wants him to deal with America’s presence, then Russia must accept the deal with Idlib too.
In short and simple terms, the American withdrawal, if it happens, will take the decision of what happens in Idlib out of Erdogan’s hands.
The above sounds good, good for Syria, but the final outcome of this will depend on a number of factors, the most important of which is who is going to replace the American troops and how soon.
If America leaves behind a mercenary army as some speculate, fighting it will be logistically easier in the sense that it will not open the door for direct confrontation with United States army.
Depending on the pattern of withdrawal, the void generated by the retreating American troops can either be filled by the legal national Syrian Arab Army or by an invading Turkish army. But this depends on the location as well as the time table of withdrawal. If America for example leaves Deir Ezzor now, which is in the east and a couple of hundred kilometers south of Turkey’s border, the void will automatically be filled by the Syrian Army. However, if America leaves a northerly position such as Manbij, Turkey will move in before the Syrian Army will have a chance to do so. And such a scenario can spell more problems for Syria.
The problem here is more of a humanitarian nature than territorial, because sooner or later, Turkey will have to leave Syria. That said, if Turkish troops control any Syrian land, even for a short time, they will most likely declare open season on Syrian Kurds, and given Turkish history in dealing with such situations, this can be brutal.
On the other hand, if Erdogan tries to inflict a Kurdish massacre, then his Idlib carrot will turn into a stick lashing his own hide. For years, he had managed to juggle his contradictions of being a nationalist and an Islamist, but he will finally have to choose between his two alter egos. His nationalist ambition of annihilating Kurdish resistance in Syria can endanger his Muslim brothers in Idlib. His split-personality dilemma is finally coming to a head.
Would the man who was prepared to fight America if America supported a Kurdish state be also prepared to fight Russia if Russia attacked his Islamist brothers in Idlib?
Ideally, the best scenario possible for Syria and Russia, a resolution that will uphold Syria’s sovereignty and integrity all the while avert any Kurdish bloodshed, is for Syria and Russia to immediately fill in any gap created by retreating American forces. Erdogan must be kept out of Syria, and once his hands cannot reach Syrian Kurds any longer, he will no longer be able to have any say in Idlib.
It is also possible that, since the newer and better Russian surface-to-air missiles are now in place, he knows that US aircraft (controlling the air above a conflict is critical for success on the ground) would not survive if hostilities erupted. Militarily, he cannot win in Syria now, so withdrawing from it is insurance against some rogue US commander there going off the reservation and starting a war on his own initiative.
Possibly also, agreements on the (two) natural gas pipelines to cross Syrian territory have finally been concluded (not that the US is “agreement capable,” but the commercial contracts behind it will abide by them).
Sorry, I think your argument is nonsense.
There always been co-operation between Russian Federation Aerospace Forces and the American Airforce. To wit: one operates uninterrupted west of the Euphrates, the other to the east. Neither has any interest in creating the conditions for direct conflict, since the ramifications are apocalyptic.
That’s part of the de-confliction agreement. If anyone thinks otherwise, they don’t understand how these super-powers co-operate under the covers, various propaganda hysterics not withstanding (majorly on the unipolar side).
Energy geo-politics are certainly part of the equation, but in my opinion, the idea that the Anglo-zionists can come up with a more rational (i.e. cheaper) alternative than that provided by existing and future (Nord-stream 2 or Southstream), is nothing short of fantasy.
Wishful thinking there. Remember the Russian fighter plane that disabled the communications system of the US naval task force (with one khibiny) & precipitated a hasty about-face ?
Remember Russia’s long-range cruise missile bombings of ISIS positions launched from the Black Sea (a capability previously unsuspected) ?
Recall the drone swarm being mostly shot down (unexpectedly) and the few that got through hitting nothing of any real significance ?
The US adventurers seem to require frequent “learning experiences” like these to keep their imaginations at least tenuously connected with reality.
TTC, I think it was even further than Black Sea. Didn’t two little river boats fire two from Caspian Sea? That caused an immediate withdrawal of an Aircraft Carrier group from Persian Gulf?
Consider this :
I concur with your conclusions but disagree with your assertion that the reason(s) for Trump’s pivot is(are) irrelevant. I think it is very relevant. But I won’t share my speculation. However, concerning Erdogan and the Europeans it seems that they are together vis a vis Crimea but not aligned with the Meditarrenean Pipeline Project. This Pipeline is between Israel, Cyprus, Greece and Italy. Erdogan has threatened it. Erdogan is counting on the royalties for becoming an Energy hub. He will see that the Meditarrenean pipeline isn’t built. But the USA just announced its full support for it. Additionally, Israel is not happy that Turkey is going to smoke the YPG & YPJ. The next confrontation may happen not just in the North East of Syria but in the Eastern Mediterranean if not a provocation in the Kerch straight. Pass me the pop corn please.
The Med pipeline necessary to limit Germany’s power to restrict energy to supplies to southern European nations when the EU collapses.
This effort has little to do with the international relations at the ‘supply’ end. Any gains there are merely a side benefit.
The link shows a potenial route.
The Med NG pipeline is a project floated by Israel, Cyprus, Greece and Italy. It has absolutely nothing to do with Nordstream or with Germany. It is supported by USA and Brussels because it diversifies NG energy flows. Turkey will see that it doesn’t get built as Turkey is dead set against it because of existing maritime and resource disputes with Greece. Turkey is set to become an Energy Hub for Southern Europe either from Russia or from Qatar / Iran future pipeline projects.
S-T, this is why Turkish politicians, no less than once a day, keep threatening Greece with total Destruction as well as grabbing half of the Islands including 2/3 of Crete (keep dreaming Turks).
This video, says Russia is expecting “hot” episodes between Turkey and Greece:
Turkey increases daily provocations:
US, Israel, Greece are “sending messages” to Turkey:
Checkout 0:11 he says that pipeline is almost certain, which is to take Turkey out of the picture (and Russia?).
This may be the reason why US is withdrawing from Syria.
Trump is playing multidimensional chess while his foes are playing kiddie games. Pulling a tiny # of troops out of a position that depends on Turkish supply lines has many benefits, one of which is assisting the Leviathan export pipeline.
I will try a more detailed post later if time allows.
The Multidimensional Chess of President Donald Trump
What are the TOP 3 gains from moving U.S. Troops out of a position where Turkey controls their supply lines?
1) Trump will continue to supply munitions and other material support to Syrian Kurds via Iraqi Kurds.
— Without U.S. boots on the ground, the Syrian Kurds can use them without U.S. limitations (e.g. against Turkish tanks & armor).
— In return for weapons, the U.S. will continue to receive intelligence from the Syrian Kurds for targeting Iranian/Hezbollah positions in Syria.
— Armed Syrian Kurds protecting themselves from Turkish aggression, incidentally strengthens the Syrian border against a number of threats.
Winners: TRUMP, Sadir (Iraq), Assad
Losers: Erdogan, Khemeni, Soros
2) The U.S. will continue to back the Judeo-Christian Leviathan gas export pipeline without Turkish interference. This is a body blow to Germany and France’s energy transport dominance over other EU nations.
Winners: TRUMP, Salvini (Italy), Cyprus, Greece, Israel, and to a lesser extent all EU periphery nations.
Losers: Soros, Erdogan, Merkel, Macron
3) The U.S. can continue the killing off of Obama’s non-binding, non-treaty JCOPA — And, continue to close ranks with the Saudis on containing Iran via sanctions and where necessary air strikes at against Iranian Hezbollah:
Winners: TRUMP, Netanyahu, MBS
Losers: Khemeni, Nasrallah (Iranian Hezbollah), Mashal (Iranian Hamas), and other Globalists (UN & EU).
Due to space & time constraints I only listed the Top 3 in detail, however there are even more benefits. For example, showing that Obama and Clinton could not deliver undercuts the National Socialist Globalist movement around the globe.
Trump has just launched his “Trump 2020” campaign. He knows how to appeal to his base and with his announced withdrawals from Syria and Afghanistan it will play very well.
That said he still wants war with Iran for his Israeli owners.
We shall see.
I doubt that Trump wants war with Iran. His negotiating strategy is to shout, threaten and generally create a stink, then come to the table. Rinse and repeat. This is what he did with North Korea, Mexico, Canada, Honduras, Guatemala and its clearly what he is doing with Iran and China. Trump is clearly not interested in war. He will have to be dragged kicking and screaming into a war with Iran.
His owners are sure interested in war with Iran.
My sense is that a deal was worked out between USA and Russia and Turkey. The nature of the deal I do not know. I read somewhere that Putin gave Erdogan the green light to invade the Kurdish controlled area of Syria. Does any one think this might be true?
Syria, Iran, and Russia (for obvious reasons esp. the first two) cannot fight the AngloZionist terrorists directly.
But Erdogan’s Turkey which is part of the region has for a long time threatened to do exactly that, and was on the verge of (defending itself by) attacking these AngloZionist (NATO Gladio) terrorists including US troops protecting them, because their target is as much Anatolia as it is Syria (and Iraq/Iran).
So, the US/Israel/Gulf states/NATO had to back off, or face a major war with Erdogan’s Anatolia. The US blinked first, and Turkey (also Russia/Syria/Iran) won the first battle without a fight.
“Would the man who was prepared to fight America if America supported a Kurdish state be also prepared to fight Russia if Russia attacked his Islamist brothers in Idlib?”
I think the fact that Erdogan would kill US soldiers has indeed been one of the strong cards in the game, waiting to be played. I also think he could get away with it better than if the Russians or SAA did it. Erdogan has been very useful here.
But I don’t think he would fight Russians because, first, Russia is smart enough not to give him a reason to fight them. They’re interested in building peace, not conducting unnecessary arguments through fighting.
Secondly, the US has no real commitment in Syria. Its emotional position is juvenile at best, and politically its motivation is flimsy and fragmented. The US troops are just soldiers among many flung around the world. They can die without dragging the whole US nation in.
But the Russians are in Syria for real, and as we have seen Syrians bear witness to, the Russians have fought and died as if Syria were their own country. Erdogan will not fight the Russians.
Ghassan Kadi, thanks as always for a thoughtful article, especially about Erdogan’s split personality. Personally, I find Erdogan more stable than many people think, and I think the stability has grown and is growing over time. Realpolitik on the ground is supporting this growth also. I also accept, as you say, that the Russians have their man figured out very well – I don’t think they give him much freedom to act foolishly.
I think Erdogan must submit to the nationalist interests of Turkey at this point in time, as the only way he can hope to keep his Muslim interests supported – but not in Syria.
I suspect the sudden decision to pull out (and it doesn’t seem like a head fake – Mattis resigned over it) was due to Trump and Erdogan cutting some sort of a deal. I wonder it if could be due to L’affair Khashoggi and Trump desparately trying to save MbS’s butt… e.g. MbS could be threatening to pull some oil-spike grenade, which would crash the US economy and any chances of Trump’s 2nd term.
On other hand, this pullout will only escalate the Deep State’s rage against Trump (and Putin) and could easily spark a major false flag or a provocation, either in the ME or Ukraine.
The precious US economy is likely to blow up anyway before the end of 2020, so Trump will most likely be finished anyway. God knows what will happen in the meanwhile…
The part of this that fascinates me is Trump v Mattis. Up till now, Sec of Def Mattis appeared to have the upper hand. In other words, the stuff that actually happened seemed to match what Mattis said more than it didn’t.
Suddenly, he doesn’t. Trump gets the withdrawal from Syria that one now must suppose that he always wanted. And Sec of Def Mattis decides now would be a good time to retire. Interesting.
Perhaps he really did get tired of being around Trump all the time. I’ve met real estate developers, and I can fully understand such a view. But, another thought occurs. What if Trump has now finally gotten control of some part of the government which has good surveillance powers. Trump had been beaten up by that since Obama and Lynch spied on him. Now has he finally turned the tables. Maybe Trump’s ability to now spy on people yielded some information which he could use to keep Mathis in line?
Who’s next in the job will be very interesting and a very important decision. Trump hasn’t had a good track record at picking loyal people he can rely on. Perhaps Trump is starting to get the hang of it? Two years puts him on the slow learner side of things, but all Presidents usually do seem to figure it out.
On the other hand, if Wall St keeps dropping Trump’s approval will drop to 30-35% and he will quickly become a powerless lame-duck who everyone wants to avoid at all costs. Why waste a promising political career by sinking with a jerk who’s popularity is plummeting and who will be out of politics in two years? Do you really want to be known as “Trump’s Guy” five years from now?
“The above sounds good, good for Syria, but the final outcome of this will depend on a number of factors, the most important of which is who is going to replace the American troops and how soon.”
This is the clincher.
Jiri, according to SyrPer analyst Canthama there are reliable reports of Syrian and Russian troops having already moved quietly up north “well positioned to protect the Syrian oil fields”.
Are we talking about the same American troops that conduct missile strikes against Syrians,bombs Syrian military and destroys Syrian cities?Why would anyone want to replace them?
Remember Pristina? 200 Russian airborne troops airlifted into the airport stopped NATO in its tracks.
Yes then the Military were let down when that drunken clown Yeltsin lost his nerve,then many serbs were cleansed and are still being attacked.
“Erdogan is incurably both an Islamist and a Turkish nationalist; even though the ideologies are in total contradiction with each other….when it comes to either nationalism or religion, he regresses into a programmed robot that is simply unable to think and act rationally;”
I like Kadi’s analyses overall, but when it comes to Erdogan’s intentions he and most analysts, i believe, consistently get it wrong:
Turkey’s presence in Syria has one very logical and consistent goal: prevent any viable Kurdish entity in Northern Syria by cutting off an outlet to the Mediterrenean.
Initially by separating Afrin from the rest of other Kurdish cantons, later by totally clearing the former from YPG presence.
For Turkey preventing a separatist entity in Northern Syria run by YPG, affiliate of the PKK, is a paramount geopolitical and even existential matter.
This also in the interest of all parties
trying to prevent a breakup of Syria or even their own territories.
I do not believe Erdogan has any territorial designs on its neighbour.
Any war or even a Kurdish ‘massacre’ as the author puts it would have a very destabilizing effect for Turkey and Erdogan is no fool.
Frankly I find Kadi’s innuendo of Erdogan wanting or needing to inflict some Kurdish massacre for the sake of it, insulting and propagandistic(the similar but graphic image of Putin with the bloody fangs come to mind).
And before anyone of you starts with the hate comments regarding this, reread the article’s relevant section and think what it says and implies.
Say of Erdogan, his methods and goals what you will but he is a skilled political operator and survivor who acts consistently and rationally towards the latter.
He has been ruling Turkey for 15 years now, the last 6 of which without the backing of the West and several attempts to topple him)and would not have been able to do so if he was anything other.
Lastly I’ll say that I, nor many other Turks, do not see the stated contradiction between ‘Islamism’ and Turkish nationalism.
Turkey, since the conquest of the Hejaz in the early 16th century had been the ‘standardbearers of the Prophet and the leading Sunni state, the vanguard so to speak.
What Russia is to pan-Slavism, Turkey is to the Ummah(worldcommunity of Muslims). Would anyone say that Russian nationalism and pan-Slavism contradict one another?
Now these are broadstrokes, I understand the situation is somewhat more complex, in Russia you have also the historic nationalism a la Peter or Catherine the Great which might be more oriented towards Western Europe overlooking its own more Slavic and even Asian characteristics, whose modern day heirs are, I guess the so-called fifth column Atlanticists.
Similarly, there is the brand of Turkish nationalism which is staunchly secular, opposed to Islam and more oriented towards Turkey’s pre-Islamic Turkic roots, also known as Kemalism.
Needless to say these guys are somewhat diminished since AKP’s rise.
I dislike it when so-called professional ‘analysts’ paint a somewhat caricatural and absurd image of Turkey supposedly trying to revive the Ottoman Empire or Erdogan wanting to revive the Khalifate.
No more chance of that happening than Putin declaring himself Czar or re-annexing the Baltics or Poland for that matter.
People from Serbians to non-Slavs like Ossetians, Armenians and even Turkic Central-Asians do look to Russia for guidance and protection.
Why should this be different for the (Sunni)Islamic cultural and civilisational sphere?
It is telling that when in Turkey in the 20’s the office of Khalif was being abolished, the most vocal protest came from the Muslims of the sub-continent.
Even today many Muslims from the Sunni world look to Turkey more than for instance the Saudis to defend and raise issues affecting the Ummah, foremost issue being Palestine, the liberation of which will be, God-willing, sooner then later.
Thank you for that. I too see Erdogan as a rational actor, who is playing a complex balancing game between Europe, America, Israel, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia etc. Turkey after all exists at the confluence of many geopolitical currents. And yes, people who survive in power as long as he has are not irrational megalomaniacal fools. However, much their enemies may like to think so. I see a lot of similarities between him and Trump.
Emotion clouds judgment by oversimplification, and IMHO these two commenters K & N stand out as examples of individuals whose rational senses are in control of their emotions.
I hope they are as right about Erdogan and Trump as they are about Putin, whose Modus Operandi they reflect and understand, as that seems like the best shot at humanity getting through the first quarter of the present century …….in one peace.
I don’t think any hedging is needed in the case of Putin’s trustworthiness.
With the other two, I’d proceed with extreme caution, but carefully extend some additional trust…only as it is earned………. but with courage and encouragement WHEN it is earned.
“I do not believe Erdogan has any territorial designs on its neighbour.”
Pre-war and during the entry of Russia period, it was clearly stated that Erdogan intended to hold sectors of Syria for his own. Where the Russian plane and pilot was shot, and where the navigator was rescued is the area that Turkmen live and which has been claimed by Turkey. Idlib is as much about the turf as about preserving al Nusra and Uyghur fighters for Erdogan to use as proxies against who else but Syria? It’s his Muslim Brotherhood mini-caliphate. Do you think he’s about to transfer that cancer inside Turkey?
Also, now, Erdogan will want to hold a buffer on the Syrian side of the entire northern border.
This, of course, will not happen, but until the Kurds are pushed back, a buffer will be bargained for.
Erdogan is in a strong bargaining position. However, Assad and Russia have been in total unity on goal, the complete territorial integrity of Syria with its pre-war borders. Any nation or group that defies this will have to fight for the turf that violates that goal.
Thus, Turkey faces Russian Aerospace and Syrian AF if Erdogan decides to stand and fight.
However, the Russians are determined to solve all these kind of issues with diplomacy and military-to-military talks. If that does not work, then the Russians will act.
Assad has shown great wisdom to trust Russia to accomplish his goals.
Erdogan might learn that lesson and let Russia deal with the Kurds politically. His need for border security aligns with Syria-Russian goal to secure the border for Assad.
But his desire and machinations to hold Syrian territory, such as Idlib, seems to be impossible.
Though there are massive numbers, probably 100,000 fighters in Idlib, many of them have already surrendered once in various other battles. They like to survive. Russia will test that desire again.
I agree with the idea that Erdogan is frequently characterized unfairly as mentally unstable or sending to revive the Ottoman empire. His actions, as Kfeto says, can be explained with much more simply as realpolitik posturing between the often hostile ‘West’ and Russia.
However, I would object to the idea that Sunnis in the Middle East en masse look to Turkey for any guidance or leadership. True, as you say, more look to Turkey than Saudi, but spend much time with Sunnis in that region and you’ll find an almost universal distrust and dislike of Saudi Arabia, save for only the most conservative and radical believers (which as a proportion of the population is quite small, look to the Sunni majority in the Syrian army as an example). So while *some* Sunnis might look to Turkey, the amount of sway Turkey holds in the Ummah is rather small, imo.
I don’t understand why Erdogan is viewed so negatively by some people, either.All things accounted for he comes off as a pragmatist working in the best interests of his country, no different than VVP in that regard.Maybe some folks here think it’s fine for Russia to act in their own self-interest but not for Turkey?
He may have supported USA/NATO/ISIS initially against Syria, but that was when the odds were against Syria, what good would it have done for Turkey to oppose USA/NATO/ISIS if Syria was going to be destroyed anyway?Wouldn’t it have been better for them to assist in the destruction of Syria and take a part of it for themselves?Instead of siding with Syria(or trying to stay neutral) and becoming a target of USA/NATO/ISIS, themselves?Now that the odds are in favor of Syria due to the combined efforts of Syrians,Hezbollah,Iran and Russia, Turkey is continuing to act in their own best interests by siding with Syria.
While it is easy to blame Turkey, lets keep in mind, that the ones who created the conditions that enable the USA to go about destroying one nation after another with impunity wasn’t Turks, but pretty much all the nations of the world, in varying degrees and ways.
Headline in this morning’s AlMasdar News:
“With US exit from Syria, SDF begins high-level talks with Damascus”
If I remember correctly, it was in 2011 — in the earliest days of the NATZO invasion to dismember Syria the way NATZO invaded and dismembered Serbia — that Dr.Assad who, like President Putin is a master strategist and knows how to play the long game, offered the Kurds a degree of autonomy within Syria.
With US exit from Syria, SDF begins high-level talks with Damascus
“The Syrian government and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have begun high-level meetings over the ongoing Turkish threat in the northern part of the country.
According to a source in the capital city, a delegation from the Syrian Democratic Forces traveled to Damascus to meet with the Syrian government about the Turkish military’s upcoming operation east of the Euphrates.
The SDF delegation reportedly arrived at the Mezzeh Airport via helicopter on Thursday.
The source said that the two sides agreed that the Turkish invasion of northern Syria is a direct threat to Syria’s sovereignty, but no deals have been made.
He would add that they are still in talks about jointly controlling the crossings along the Turkish border.”
“The source said that the two sides agreed that the Turkish invasion of northern Syria is a direct threat to Syria’s sovereignty, but no deals have been made”
The SDF occupation (and it is) of NE Syria is also a direct threat to Syria’s sovereignty. So the SDF will have to disband or be absorbed into the SAA before anyone swallows a divide and conquer strategy that pits Syria against Turkey. Why should the SAA fight for an independent Syrian Kurdistan? ;)
Syrian Kurds — clip from from analyst Canthama BTL SyrPer #282225
Backstage diplomacy is running wild in Syria. High level meeting over last night in Damascus between the Syrian Gov and SDC did not produce any results, it seems SDC is still bargain with what they do not have, President Assad did not buy it. More meetings scheduled soon.
We will soon see SAA movements toward Qamishli and Hasaka, by air, to reinforce the presence on these two key cities, mostly against any Turkish illegal incursion. As second objective, these fresh troops will be the ones to take over border control throughout Hasaka. Once Hasaka is controlled, Deir ez Zour Province is controlled, leaving Raqqa Province and a possible battle ground for Turkey.
There is an on going activity to pool together the Arab tribes loyal to the Syrian Government in all Provinces, Raqqa, Hasaka, Aleppo and Deir ez Zour to beef up the NDF in Hasaka and Qamishli.
More to come, a lot is happening in the backstage in the moment.
[“Diplomacy is War in a suit” — Klausewitz]
Latest from Elijah Magnier looks good, confirms assessment by earlier analysts on Saker namely, If Syrian Kurds recognize Syrian Government then Turkey has no quarrel with Syrian Kurds.
Elijah Magnier on north-NE-east Syria:
News of some SAA move into Manbij controlled area, no visual confirmation but several sources showing US retreating from Aleppo Province. Sunday may bring news of SAA control of all Manbij area.
The tragedy is the USA has been intentionally manufactured into a mass murdering machine.
American humans are like the movie The Matrix. Womb to war the programming is etched and toxic poisons to insure the obvious brain dead. The movie Lord of the Rings where the heinous army gets made from the mud pit. No source of income as entrepreneurial, but for enlisting in the killing machine. Israel is the Rothschild governing of USA, Wall Street retirement portfolios saturate the Federalist Society. The Robed Gavel Tyrants and every Mafia government member work for the House of Rothchild posing as though US subjects falsely labeled citizens.
The vassal of Israel, USA, is currently (once again remember “Axis of Evil”) being dictated to by John Bolton, a Rothchild Israeli criminally insane vampire. There is not going to be an awakening. A reckoning is what Russia, China, Iran, Et Al must accept as a cosmic reality enema regarding Israel-USA.
There, there, BMK. A curiously dug-in and rigidly inflexible emotional position affords no flanking opportunities.
Consider awakening to that fact.
And “who benefits” by that immobility and permanent tension……… but the Powers That Shouldn’t Be???
This would be an answer were the question asked: Cui bono?
US withdrawal from Syria is ‘major blow’ to Kurdish forces: envoy
“In a recent interview with the Sputnik News Agency, Syria’s envoy to China Imad Mustafa said that the U.S.’ decision to withdraw from his country was a major blow to the Kurdish forces.
“The decision to evacuate [US troops from Syria] would constitute a major blow to the separatist Kurdish movements in northeast Syria that have foolishly believed the US troops there would be protection and guarantee to replicate the Iraqi Kurdistan model in Syria. Now they have to face reality, either they come back to their senses, and re-integrate that part of Syria with the rest of the country… or they will become a prey to [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan’s most vile schemes against them and the rest of Syria,” the Syrian envoy said.
“However, we have no trust whatsoever in any US statement, or policy. The disastrous US policies in our region have taught us that US policies can fluctuate, change, reverse or reincarnate in other forms,” Mustafa added.”
US will fully withdraw from Al-Tanf region in southern Syria – report
“Citing the rebel commander Muhannad Al-Talla at the Al-Tanf base, Buzzfeed reported that the U.S. military would fully withdraw from the region, adding that they have already begun removing equipment.
The Al-Tanf region was the U.S.’ only protectorate that was absent of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) inside Syria.
Since its capture by the rebel forces, the U.S. military has built a base near the Iraqi border, prompting outrage from the Syrian government and their Russian allies.”
The reasons Trump is leaving Syria (and Afghanistan) are vital to understanding what may now happen in those places. After all the US can always return under some pretext, and Syria, Russia and Turkey must, at least for the near term, contend with that possibility in planning their next moves. At any rate the US airforce can continue to act in Syria either for good or for ill, depending on what Trump wants to achieve.
I believe that this decision by Trump signals a new phase in his presidency, he is going over to the offensive against his numerous domestic enemies. The massive attack on Trump by the Deep State has been to prevent just such a decision as this and already his enemies are casting it as a gift to Putin. The strength and power of the opposition Trump will now face has been presaged by the resignation of his secretary of defense General Mattis. More resignations will probably come. The coming 2 year period will probably be the most dangerous for the Trump presidency as by this decision he has now signaled a full frontal attack on the US Imperial State.
So why has he done this?
My assessment of Trump since shortly before the 2016 election when I began to seriously pay attention to what he was actually saying and has said in the past, is that he is a true America Firster in the sense of the America First Committee that opposed US entry into World War 2. In other words Trump is pulling out of Syria and Afghanistan out of deeply held ideological convictions. This is important because it means that so long as Trump is President full withdrawal from these countries will always be on the table and substantial escalation will be off the table. This does not mean that the US cannot be forced to go to war again in those countries, after all the America First movement has always failed to stem the tide of US imperialism or to prevent its entry into major wars like WW1 and 2. But the difference this time is that the US is in geopolitical decline while at those other times it was on the ascendancy.
So if Trump feels, as I think he does, that he has now achieved mastery of both the Republican Party and the Republican base and so can go over to the offensive. This will likely mean cooperation with Russia on the Syria and probably Ukraine as well. Trump is nothing if not a fearless risk taker, he is clearly willing to fight and take the hits that come with that. This means that as far as Syria goes, Russia and Syria can expect far more freedom of action and less real opposition from the US. Of course the shouting will go on.
The real question now is whether Trump is actually strong enough politically to see this policy through. The forces against him are far more powerful than he imagined just 2 years ago. Does he have a handle on them now? That will remain to be seen. What seems certain is that the US Imperial State will now launch its most determined and powerful attack on Trump. It may be, as they say, ‘we ain’t seen nuthin yet’.
Very good commentary…
I think Trump may be winning the battle against the deep state and the entrenched power brokers…call them the US ‘siloviki’…the Mueller thing was never going to be able to produce out of thin air some kind of ‘conspiracy’ with Russia…the fact that so many in the establishment media and their supporters among the public at large believed such a thing only goes to show how clinically insane these people are…
This may just be a case of the elected president finally consolidating his power and ramming through his will…also I think he was faced with the prospect of having the Turks and their proxies going to war with the US-supported Kurds in a big and ugly and public way that would be a disaster for the US…they are not going to intervene and fight a Nato ally…but where does that leave them as far as supporting the Kurdish ‘anti ISIS coalition’…?…the thing would turn into a disaster, the minute the Turkish jihadists started attacking the Kurds…
So the US really had no choice but to leave…If Mattis was arguing to stay, and that he could somehow finesse this thing with Turkey then he is out to lunch…
As for the subject of this article and what happens next…I think it is important to note that both the Kurds and Erdogan are a threat to Syria and to bringing the bloodshed to a close…Turkey is most certainly not a friend of Syria, and we have the question of the Idlib terrorists, which Turkey clearly supports…not to mention the territory in the north that they directly control…will they ever leave…?
At the same time, the Turks have proved useful for dealing with the Kurds, who are just as much of a danger to Syria…there is not much to choose between the two if you are a Syrian patriot…
Let’s wait and see what actually comes next…if the Kurds do the smart thing and flip back to Damascus then Erdogan will be out of luck and will have not much leverage at all…it will mean that he has to give up Idlib and start packing his military out of the north also…
If the Kurds decide to fight the Turkish jihadists and if they can get help from treacherous quarters like London and Paris they may still cause a fair bit of trouble…in that case, the best option for Damascus is just to let the Turks go ahead and see who breaks…if London and Paris are actually that stupid to get behind the Kurds in a fight with Turkey, then that will have very serious repercussions on the Nato level and will push Turkey further away…
The bottom line is that eventually neither the Kurds nor the Turks can win…and neither can the west’s jihadist darlings in Idlib…the writing is on the wall and has been for a long time…the military force is ultimately the deciding factor…with Russia fully committed and having beefed up its control over the skies of Syria, as well as the Syrian control on the ground, along with Iranian, Hezbollah and various Iraqi mllitias…there is simply no chance for even a limited ‘victory’ of the kind that has been entertained as a Plan B…and that includes Ankara as well as the western capitals…
Very interesting. Makes sense.
Along with other great comments offered here.
What I don’t get is where the certainty that “Turkey will have to leave Syria sooner or later” derives from.
Turkey will simply follow its proven North Cyprus template and stay there forever, meddling in Syria politics and international relations. I can see the future headlines, “Turkish PM says Syria has no rights to drill for oil/gas out of Lattakia coast because they must first consult with their Idlib brothers”
Who is going to force them out, especially in Idlib and north of Alepo? The Kurdish areas are another story.
And let us hope that the SDF does not “stay there forever” aswell. NE is currently under US occupation using Kurdish forces. Turkey must leave and the SDF must stand-down or “sod off”.
Once the threat to Turkey is gone, Turkey will leave Syria due to internal and external pressure.
Syria is an independent state whose legitimacy Turkey has always acknowledged.
The very independence and recognition thereof by Turkey of Cyprus was predicated on the just treatment of the Turkish Cypriot community as enshrined in the 1960 constitution.
After 1963 the constitution was unilaterally discarded and the country descended in civil strife till the intervention of 1974.
The situation now is more stable then before and a withdrawal of Turkish troops on its own will not solve anything, on the contrary. All international actors recognise this and this is why the situation persists(however much I would like to think it is due to Turkish diplomatic skill or genius).
Once Syria defeats or reaches some kind of agreement with YPG, Turkey on its own will not be able to justify or maintain its presence in Northern Syria.
No one will stand for it.
At that time at most Turkey will extract, I think:
-recognition of mutual borders(ie Syria foregoing its claim on Hatay)
-return of Syrian refugees from Turkey(giving a huge domestic popularity boost)
-assurances regarding any YPG-PKK activity towards Turkey
If the Turks don’t see reason then at some stage in the future the SAA and allies will have to eject them from Syria,don’t forget these are the bastards that supported the head hacking filth from the start,they also looted from Syria,whole factories were transported over the border,and by all accounts they are looting ancient artifacts from Syria right now.
… lots of open questions. Elijah Magnier basically answers them all in this interview with Joanne Leon of Around the Empire …
Well. Colonel Cassad treated us to three gems:
1. Leak in Israeli papers regarding Petrushev’s “paper” handed over to Israel’s delegation during the Sept. 13, 2018 Moscow meeting. As I see it, this is where Russia proposed dialog and withdrawal of US forces from Syria.
2. Mad-dog is history (you can find this there as well).
3. Trump’s Christmas Gift (collection of various tweets):
There is some stuff on Kurds, as well.
You can use Google translate for the articles.
Southfront a bit unsure about this Petrushev “document”……is further verification at all possible???????
“MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refuted on Friday media reports that the US decision to withdraw troops from Syria was a result of talks between Russia, the United States, Israel and some Arab states.
“No, that is not true,” Peskov told the Vedomosti newspaper, commenting on the reports.
Earlier in the day, media reported that the conditions of US withdrawal from Syria were discussed during the talks between representatives of Russia, the United States, Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.”
Presumably…with usa having flown out by secret helicopters to Afghanistan those ISIS who it wants to save ..and then evacuating…this is a real opportunity for Russia to create a no fly zone in north east to shut out the remainder of the coalition still bombing civilians?
I wonder what the other coalition-members are planning to do after they declared they will stay
“to fight ISIS”.
The US are still building bases in Syria and leaving means betraying the kurds (again) If anything it will be an Afghanistan type ‘withdrawl’ still 30,000 troops there today, and Iraq still 20,000 troops there. Knowing the US as we do the Army will simply be replaced by their private mercenaries which will give them carte blanche for rogue ops and war crimes impugnity. Cynical? .. me?
The US troops are leaving Syria but going to Iraq, at least at frist.
The surprising news is that they are leaving the Al Tanf base in the south as well:
Delil Souleiman / AFP / Getty Images
Kurdish fighters in Syria.
WASHINGTON — The US is set to withdraw from a special forces base in Syria that has been the subject of repeated Russian complaints, and which the US has described as a key part of efforts to defeat ISIS and to counter Iranian influence in the country.
Muhannad al-Talla, a rebel commander at al-Tanf, a US base near the Syrian border with Jordan, told BuzzFeed News that the base would see the withdrawal of the US troops who have trained and fought alongside rebels there, adding that he was helping to inventory and remove equipment.
A US official confirmed that US troops will leave the base as part of President Trump’s decision to pull US forces from Syria.
I wonder if one ought to view the “withdrawal” in a larger arena. The full global scope… But first..as to the “why”…Valentin Vasilescu @ Voltaire opines at length in re the possible “exit” of the “Glorious Army of West” from their illegal positions…
In part (my bad French translation) “The US Air Force will be defeated if it faces the Syrian Arab Army, which now has Russian anti-aircraft equipment, the best in the world. It has no choice but to leave before humiliation.”
http://www.voltairenet.org/article204426.html (this url I previously put at cafe)
That said, one ought to consider the “withdrawal” as “Strategic Re-Assignment of Force”, not as “Change in Policy”.
Seen this way Imperial Goal remains – dominate Heartland, prevent unification, conquer globe… And the thundering implication is that “withdrawal” is what precedes “Invasion” or “Attack” – variables that may apply in Ukraine or Venesualia, or Iran, or…even additional internal falseflag stuff like “911”… These guys are not going to pack up their weapons and grow halos…
Let Heaven Judge the Soviets, VVP said…and I agree, but they said some true stuff worth keeping in mind…
” It would be wrong to think that the Second World War broke out accidentally, or as a result of blunders committed by certain statesmen, although blunders were certainly committed. As a matter of fact, the war broke out as the inevitable result of the development of world economic and political forces on the basis of present-day monopolistic capitalism. Marxists have more than once stated that the capitalist system of world economy contains the elements of a general crisis and military conflicts, that, in view of that, the development of world capitalism in our times does not proceed smoothly and evenly, but through crises and catastrophic wars. The point is that the uneven development of capitalist countries usually leads, in the course of time, to a sharp disturbance of the equilibrium within the world system of capitalism, and that group of capitalist countries regards itself as being less securely provides with raw materials and markets usually attempts to change the situation and to redistribute “spheres of influence” in its own favor — by employing armed force. As a result of this, the capitalist world is split into two hostile camps, and war breaks out between them.” (09 Feb ’46)
Well? Withdrawal, then attack… It’s the way it goes…
I think many tend to get caught up in the day to day noise, when something looks contrary to the zio west convention. While forgetting many policies are decided by the very nature of the system the people uphold. I’m not saying we should stop looking into day to day events, but that we should remember the principles the zio west is built on, because that can only help us understand the day to day events. Good post.
Erdogan Decides to Postpone Military Op in Syria After Talk With Trump
“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that following a telephone talk with US President Donald Trump on 14 December he decided to postpone the beginning of the military operation in Syria.
“The decision to conduct the operation east of the Euphrates is made, but, following the talks with Trump and the recent events, we chose to postpone its start”, Erdogan said.
The Turkish president also shared that Trump made his decision to withdraw American troops from the Arab Republic after he promised that Turkey would clear all remaining Daesh* forces from Syria.
During his speech, Erdogan also assured that Turkey doesn’t have any claims on Syrian territories, but has been forced “to take steps to stabilise the situation in Syria”. He stressed that Ankara “will not make any concessions”, when the country’s national security is at stake.”
Turkey to delay operation in Syria, Erdogan says as US plans to withdraw troops
“President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that Turkey would postpone a military operation against Syrian Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria as he “cautiously” welcomed Washington’s decision to withdraw its troops in the area. “We had decided last week to launch a military incursion in the east of the Euphrates river… Our phone call with [US President Donald Trump], along with contacts between our diplomats and security officials and statements by the US, have led us to wait a little longer,” he said in a speech in Istanbul, according to Reuters. One of the leaders of Syrian Kurdish forces said on Friday in Paris that they could withdraw from the frontlines of battle against Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) and re-deploy to the Turkish border if the region they control is attacked by Turkey, AFP reports. The Kurds are seen as the big losers of Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria.”
BEIRUT, December 20. /TASS/. The US president’s decision to withdraw troops from Syria was a result of a secret deal between Washington and Ankara, Lebanese analyst Nidal Sabi, a leading expert on the Syrian dossier, told TASS on Thursday.
He said that after a period of bitter differences between the United States and Turkey, Ankara “has once again earned their total confidence and will again promote US interests in the Middle East.”
US to conduct air strikes on Syria until full pullout of forces, says Pentagon
“The regional policies of Ankara and Washington pursue the same goals and are aimed at fragmentation of Syria and Iraq,” the expert said.
He believes that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to use the deal with the US to relocate extremist groups, which are now being withdrawn from the Idlib de-escalation zone, to the eastern bank of the Euphrates River.
Besides, Sabi believes that the pullout of US troops would become a catastrophe for the Arab-Kurdish alliance known as Syrian Democratic Forces. He expects that a split within the ranks of this coalition would eventually trigger a major confrontation between Arab tribes and Kurdish groups in the east of Syria.
“In this new situation, Kurdish groups will have only one opportunity to avoid a situation, in which they are left face to face with Turkish troops: to re-align with the Syrian state and discard plans of Syrian federalization,” the Lebanese analyst said.
According to him, a situation in which Ankara and Damascus team up to counter Kurdish separatism is completely ruled out.
“Syrian President Bashar Asad will never make a deal with Erdogan, whom he sees as the main culprit for the bloodshed on the Syrian land,” Sabi said, adding that Assad “does not trust Erdogan, because he knows about his ties with Muslim Brotherhood fundamentalists [outlawed in Russia], who were the major driving force behind the so-called Arab Spring project.”.
Some good information there…I think this sounds like the ‘magic’ formula to figuring all this out…Erdogan and the US came up with a Grand Bargain, whereby Turkey and its jihadist proxies take over the SDF northeast…and Turkey is relocating the Idlib terrorists to serve in that takeover…
This makes perfect sense…the US doesn’t care for the Kurds as Kurds…it only cares that they are useful idiots in slicing off a chunk of Syria…if it can get Turkey and the Idlib terrorists to do that for them then what’s the diff…?
A very good plan on the part of Erdog and even the empire…but it is still doomed to fail…if the Kurds decide to fight, as they surely will…it means they will at some point need to accept the assistance of Damascus…which means a political deal where they give up the idea of autonomy or a ‘federation’…
The Arab tribes east of the Euphrates are not going to support the Kurds either, but are they going to side with Erdogan’s head choppers…?
In any case, a Damascus victory cannot be stopped…Erdogan still has a life in terms of causing problems for Syria, but the fact that the US has had to pull out is still a victory…the Turks will be easier to deal with than the US…
Right on the money. As in the past, reconciliation talks and induvidual talks, and loyaly will be assessed for the Kurd fighting forces that will result in re-asignment. Like everyone that switched sides, loyalty must be earned and you can bet Idlib will be the place folr most of them.
Tom, when in doubt look for the flow of money. Greek media is awash with comments about the US mounting up the pressure on Turkey to drop any notion of buying Russian weapons, namely S-400 and go with Patriot for about $3.5bln.
I am back again, with the video talking about Patriot instead of S-400 for Turkey. The offer was just green-lighted and it’s said that US offers 140 missiles to Turkey. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQ-PwGYez_U
“The Kurds are seen as the big losers of Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria.”
And if they really do pull out (i.e. including all intelligence operatives, special forces and now these Peshmerga proxies moving in as-well) then Syrians will be seen as the big winners.
This one is fairly easy to understand. Some times you have to take one step backwards before taking two steps forward.
-1- U.S. ground troops are in an enclave where supplies move primarily through Turkey.
-2- Turkey / Saudi relations are bad and stand a good chance of getting worse.
-3- Saudi is more important than Turkey for the purpose of containing the violent Iranian regime that is destabilizing the region.
Drawing down U.S. troops from Syria is less than ideal, but necessary to eliminate a dependency on unreliable Turkey. There are many other options still available for U.S. air missions in Syria (if needed).
Bottom line this keeps focus on the primary, immediate U.S. peace mission in the area… Limiting Iranian Violence.
“Iranian violence” / “US Peace Mission”?
Can you please explain these claims, as they seem to some, I assume many, to be absurd.
Perhaps they’re only “highly likely”…
Or maybe, just maybe, suitable for mulching roses…
In point of objective fact it’s a strategic realignments and change in tactic. A new method of attack because the Imperial Forces cannot operate under the controlled airspace of Syria – controlled by the SAA and Damascus with Russian air defense. – they can’t attack with air dominance and control.
The “logical” new tactic will be, if they follow the past, attack from stand-off position. Of course attack is a big category…includes assassination, “terrorist attack”, and the old ways…bribery, subornation of treason, blackmail, and luckup corp’s rockets and gadgets..
Matched at Salamis, Xerxes had the good sense to leave…but he had that option… as Marx and Stalin and observation of current facts indicate, the Empire does not have that option… ergo…
Right. They have zero other option beyond change in tactic. And the change of tactic is not voluntary… This defines defeat – when you run out of options you’re defeated. Your opponent (partner) defines your options.
There’s always General Ripper’s advice… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuP6KbIsNK4
Now let’s pull the other one…
It’s pretty simple. At this point, Iranian owner-operator military formations such as violent Iran/Hezbollah and violent Iran/Hamas are the are the primary source of violence in the region. Thus stopping the violent owner, Ayatollah Killmania, of those violent forces is essential to bring peace to the region.
It will be many months before Syrians are ready to take over the most complex Russian sourced systems such as S-300. Currently they are still under Russian control, and Russia does not want to accidentally start a nuclear war with the U.S. by shooting down U.S. aircraft. So, currently there are few limitations on U.S. air power.
Even once Syrians take over the systems (if that ever happens), it is at the end of a long supply chain with a limited # of interceptors. Once, those are consumed how will insolvent Syria afford to buy more? It is clearly not in Syria’s interest to become defenseless by over expending limited supplies they cannot replace defending Iranian/Hezbollah terror forces.
If you say it, then it must be so…
But I look at the devastation of States, Libya, Yemen, Syria, with entire major cities reduced to rubble and rotting corpses, and you’re telling me that Iranian and Hezbollah forces did this?
How many bombing runs did their air forces do?
All we see is claim…
And why doubt the claim simply because all the evidence says something else?
Try another joke.
This A123 is obviously a troll…’Iranian/Hezbollah terror forces’…?
And Iran and Hezbollah are the main problem in the middle east…this is guy is posting from which Tel Aviv troll factory…?
One way the zionazi webspam factory works is one of them posts zionazi or similarly irrelevant nonsense, then another worker posts a reply. The two then go at it at length. It’s a common tactic. The point is to derail sensible discussion and information sharing and get the “stupid goys” chasing their own tails.
No Tel Aviv toll factory, I have been keeping a track of A123 from his initial days, he seems to be form India.
@vot tak has rightly pointed out the Zionist tactics.
”Bottom line this keeps focus on the primary, immediate U.S. peace mission in the area… Limiting Iranian Violence.”
I’m glad to hear you say that, A123. But do keep in mind that the proverbial Axis of Evil has a pretty damn accurate sense of smell when it comes to imperialist setbacks. Iranians trembling before Pindo mercenaries — well and good. But then, you also have to factor in the DPRK, China, Venezuela, and who knows what other countries that might feel tempted to ”test the limits”. Your grievances about ”Iranian violence”, whatever that means (Hezbollah??), might turn out to be a baseless over-reaction by comparison.
Interesting development in the last two days. I’ve had a nagging doubt all along that this consistent and ongoing coup d’etat against the sitting President of the United States of America, the likes of which we’ve never seen even in the darkest days of the President Nixon coup, would eventually be turned around. Even the President’s wife has been the target of incredible amounts of vitriol to the point of being ludicrous and if it was my wife who was talked of in such a manner, someone, or I should say ‘someones’, would be seeking a very good dentist among other anatomical specialists.
The fact remains that President Trump was legally elected in spite of the election being called and given to Hillary Diane Rodham from the first rumors of campaigning up to the last gruesome moments when she abandoned her followers in Election Central and didn’t have the good graces, our courage, to announce to them in person that she had lost.
As it stands now, the Commander of the Armed Forces of the United States of America has given two orders and the orders must be obeyed. Woe betide any serving officer, NCO or EM who does not follow these orders. I’m realist enough to fully understand that there will be delay stacked on delay, crisis stacked on crisis and obfuscation tacked on to obfuscation, but in the end the armed forces have to withdraw from two theaters of operations they have no reason to be in beyond what they were ordered to do and the legality of these orders is open to very serious question.
These two orders beg the question as to what is next, perhaps the ‘advisers’ assisting the Ukraine army fighting in Donbass will be ordered out? If so, how about the Polish, German, French and English ‘advisers’ down to Rota level on the lines of combat in Novorossiya? What about the German, French, English and Italian ‘advisers’ in Syria? The Germans, French and English in Afghanistan? Will they all up stakes and go home? Will Merkel and Macron survive the coming debacle of their soldier’s return? One can rest assured that at least some of the returning soldiers will spill the beans to some willing news type, either that or start writing books.
The times, they be interesting. You will know the worm has turned when President Trump and President Putin meet officially. Perhaps an end is in sight to the hundreds of billions of dollars thrown away in the interest of Big Oil, MIC and Neoconism. Time will tell.
How a real army fights. Never The Last One
A pleasant interlude for the season. Blue Cloud, A View of Life From The Eyes Of A Collie
Good observation and questions, Mr Auslander.
Harry Truman, by the way, did offer fisticuffs to a fellow who insulted his daughter…
he wrote and published this: “Mr. Hume:
“I’ve just read your lousy review of Margaret’s concert. I’ve come to the conclusion that you are an ‘eight ulcer man on four ulcer pay.’
“It seems to me that you are a frustrated old man who wishes he could have been successful. When you write such poppy-cock as was in the back section of the paper you work for it shows conclusively that you’re off the beam and at least four of your ulcers are at work.
“Some day I hope to meet you. When that happens you’ll need a new nose, a lot of beefsteak for black eyes, and perhaps a supporter below!
“[Newspaper columnist Westbrook] Pegler, a gutter snipe, is a gentleman alongside you. I hope you’ll accept that statement as a worse insult than a reflection on your ancestry.
There are times when sarcastic humor, which is often lost on those rude enough to comment about one’s wife’s attributes, is better than fisticuffs.
My wife is a generation younger than I am, somewhat diminutive at 150 and 43 kilos and quite the beauty. The only problems we’ve ever had in this village was from foreigners and that only twice in 14 years. Best one was in summer of ’13, the last summer we had scads of Brit tourists befouling our streets and beaches.
We don’t show physical affection in public beyond holding hands. So here’s us walking hand in hand and smiling and joking in English as usual in City Center and this rotund Brit couple, who overheard us speaking English, made a rather rude comment and then the lady actually asked my wife thus:
“What did you do, marry your father?”
My wife, who normally does not take prisoners, replied without missing a beat and with a very sweet smile: “Of course I married my father, why shouldn’t I? I’ve loved him all my life, he’s loved me all my life, I know everything about him and he knows everything about me and we couldn’t be happier. We married the day I was fifteen and a few days later he had his fortieth birthday. We have five children and I’ll know in another week if the sixth one is on the way. We want seven and we have two boys and three girls now.”
The Brits stood there as if they’d been pole axed. VCO gave them a moment and then had at them.It weren’t pretty.
The other incident was with some sailors from the USS Klakring of Incident On Simonka fame. He was actually here on a port visit but I’ve forgotten exactly what year it was, ’12 perhaps, he’s long out of service now. They were dumb enough to say obscene unpleasantries about ‘the local monkies who don’t speak English’ as my charming bride and I walked past. The looks on their faces as a rank identified E9 lit in to them was somewhat priceless….and then VCO had at them tooth, claw and battle ax. My wife now has the Honor of Red Stitches at the top of her right boot, the blood was that deep.
Always a pleasure to read your lines Auslander.
I find this recent move by Trump peculiar…
He had capitulated, maybe was being blackmailed, and now all of a sudden he has grown a spine and freed himself from leverage of the deep state?
I remember how we were commenting on how mad dog Mattis was the “sane” one in his administration. Now he is leaving..not sure this is good or bad.
I agree with you, Melania (and her son) have been treated horribly. She has always remained silent, dignified, resigned. She has few allies.
My lady, thank you for your compliments on my writings.
My thoughts are President Trump was threatened to an extreme even before his inauguration as President, and his words were still echoing across Foggy Bottom when even his own party had at him. He is dangerous, very dangerous, to both parties.
He has been hamstrung for almost two years. I don’t know what happened but something of great import did happen and I have no doubts that his wife, his very strong wife, had at least a part in it. Neither he nor she are idiots, far from it, and one can hope that this ‘sudden’ stand down order will be obeyed and mayhap it’s only the beginning.
The fact that General Mattis resigned his position because of these orders is conjecture however pleasant said conjection can be. I knew of him some years ago and he did not impress me neither then nor now, he is a typical political career senior officer the likes of whom we can well do without, and I for one never said he was the ‘sane’ one. His semi official nickname was, from what I hear from those who should know, a product of his own and his minion’s imagination.
Now, if Bolton can be eased (read booted) out to the old age home, or mental asylum, whichever is fitting….. and that will leave us with, amongst others, Pompeii or whatever he calls hisself. If Pompeii gets the boot, perhaps he can make a new career as a guest on the Raquel Maddow show, a fitting end to a less than stellar career.
I’m not sure Bolton is such a liability…apparently he is the kind of person that Trump actually needs…ie a purely self-interested toady…the kind who will never fall on his sword as Mattis apparently did after the disagreement about the pullout…
TAC reports that Bonkers was in the room while Trump was on the phone to Erdog…and at one point Trump asked Bolton if ‘we could get out right now, like today’…and Bolton nodded yes…
Just the kind of guy Trump needs… a died in the wool yes-man…LOL
I have a feeling the lardass Pompeo is cut from similar cloth…he didn’t grow that massive fat ass being disciplined and principled…he’s now dutifully making the rounds defending the pullout…and he even sounds sincere…
It remains to be seen if US troops will indeed be pulled out of Syria. Time is the factor, and it will provide a more clear picture.
One has to wonder what the real motive for this decision by Trump is. Does he really want to remove US troops from this Syrian conflict, and if so, why ? I don’t think that Israel is too happy about this.
More than one commentator has pointed out that US troops in Syria are in a dangerous tactical position, whose supply lines can easily be cut off. Is this why Trump is pulling them out ? Their withdrawl will take up to 100 days, which is slightly more than three months. Is the US planning an attack against Iran in the spring, which might explain their withdrawl from Syria ? We shall see.
The Trump Administration Isn’t Ending the Wars in Syria or Yemen — It’s Only Shifting (and Fighting Over) Strategy
“The loss-averse President Donald Trump, who campaigned on a platform to “defeat ISIS, sought to uphold his election-season slogan by declaring “historic victories against ISIS” as a reason for his Wednesday decision to end US military presence in Syria.
Amidst the steady gains of the Syrian army, who has reclaimed land from ISIS and various rebel factions since 2016, Trump has sought to market the destabilization of Syria as a success in his presidency.
Though US military withdrawal is always a cause to celebrate, a steady geopolitical undercurrent shows that the move only represents a shift in strategy in loss minimization for the Gulf-Israel-US axis in the Middle East.
Military failures and excessive expenditures have made direct war campaigns highly unpopular for the US following Iraq and Afghanistan. Since then, the US’s strategy post-war on terror has been to pursue more covert strategies.
These have been carried out through proxy wars, support of Western-backed rebel groups, media censorship and manipulation, and maintaining or increasing support and funding to NATO and GCC allies and Israel.”
Keep in mind that the trump regime is the most zionazi influenced pindo regime so far in history and is essentially a colonial regime with an outlook mimicing likud in israel literally almost verbatim.
My thoughts go along the same lines. The Zionists are not going to let Trump get away with this one if he suddenly started to act from his own notions. There has to be some other reason for this other than electioneering. By pulling these troops out the US is removing what are basically sitting ducks in any serious conflict out of the line of fire. The same goes for the troops in Afghanistan who could easily be cut off with no way out if things get serious.
Why does what looks like a positive move on the surface feel so uncharacteristic of the US and the Zionists and at the same time so ominous?
One aspect yet hardly mentioned for Trump leaving Syria might be in the re-focusing of resources towards Venezuela. With Bolsonaro soon to be sworn in, I wouldn’t be surprised if a false flag just happened to happen… Say, Brazil and Colombia vs. Venezuela. It is possible there was more to the recent visit of the TU-160s.
Hope Venezuela gets their gold back….has accused Cumbia of kidnapping-arresting a diplomat and has then sent one of Colymbias’s back…..something going on.
I too hope they will get their gold back.
Thierry Meyssan too thinks something’s up in the region.
The United States are preparing a war between Latin-American states
by Thierry Meyssan
mod-to note: Please move further discussion on this thread to the Moveable Feast Cafe (it is off the topic of this post)
The zionazi-gays (IE: trump quislings) are attacking Venezuela. Maybe some of those terrorist/death squad trainers/command fucntioneers israels pindoland are “withdrawaling” from Syria are being reassigned to colombia, or Brazil.
Brazillian Army can’t be used unless the country is attacked.
Brazil do not have border problems!
Despite Bolsonaro speaking nonsense, Brazil is OUT and Bolsonaro will lost lots of support if do not follow Br tradition!
Erdogan and the Turks may dream of holding on to parts of Syria, but in reality, they stand no chance against the SAA, especially as there is now a de facto no fly zone in Syria. Providing they see no possibility of a proto-Kurdistan on their border, they would be prepared to declare victory and leave. If they don’t there is a chance the SAA may even take back the south western coastal zone around Iskerun.
I seem to recall Erdo complaining somewhat about the cost of looking after Syrian refugees…..especially as winter is coming could this be a factor….they would only go home without a usa presence….could they be used to “repopulate” east of Euphrates to redress a Kurdish population imbalance….or his funding of refugees will now be preferably spent on looking after Turkish rebels insurgents etc returning from Idlib??????
Both the article and a lot of comments speculating, based on the assumption the USA will actually leave Syria, why?Because Trump said they were leaving?Because Mattis resigned?Neither of these are good indicators to assume that the Americans will leave, I’d suggest waiting until there are no American soldiers inside Syria, before jumping to conclusions.
”Before Trump’s decision, there were two serious nagging and unresolved problems in Syria /…/ and they were the ongoing presence of the terrorists in Idlib and the presence of American troops in the North East.”
Loosely speaking, the first of these problems translates into Erdogan whereas the second one translates into El Trumpo’s string-pullers. My take is that short of a major offensive to evict once and for all these assorted squatters from Syrian soil altogether, the status quo in Syria will persist. As we know, the Pindos are 100% недоговороспособны, so the commitment to withdraw on their part could be trashed instantly at the drop of a hat (or, perhaps, of a White Helmet). Really, imperialist setbacks amount to spitting right in the soul of exceptional and indispensable folks; hence the latter will be very receptive indeed to any Dolchstoss fairy-tales with El Trumpo as the November-Verbrächer (2016 style) to be severely punished for ”taking orders from the Kremlin” rather than spreading more death and destruction as per the Anglo-Zionazi disgust and contempt of Life itself.
Erdogan and his protegés are less problematic. As soon as Erdogan’s people in Syria start suffering repeated defeats at the hands of the SAA, Erdogan will lose interest in the entire Syrian misadventure. Unlike El Trumpo, Erdogan knows quite a lot about the Middle East. El Trumpo is just an ignorant stranger, believing in his awesome exceptionalism.
Maybe Erdogan is willing to sell his Idlib brothers to control/subdue the Kurds….So basically trade Idlib with Kurdish regions.
But I won’t believe a US withdrawal until I see it with my eyes.
Donald Trump’s twitter announcement about America’s withdrawal from Syria
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 19. Dez.
We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump
Donald J. Trump hat retweetet
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 19. Dez.
After historic victories against ISIS, it’s time to bring our great young people home!
“It’s Time For Our Troops To Come Back Home”
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 20. Dez.
Getting out of Syria was no surprise. I’ve been campaigning on it for years, and six months
ago, when I very publicly wanted to do it, I agreed to stay longer. Russia, Iran, Syria & others
are the local enemy of ISIS. We were doing there work. Time to come home & rebuild. #MAGA
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 20. Dez.
Does the USA want to be the Policeman of the Middle East, getting NOTHING but spending
precious lives and trillions of dollars protecting others who, in almost all cases, do not appreciate
what we are doing? Do we want to be there forever? Time for others to finally fight…..
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 20. Dez.
….Russia, Iran, Syria & many others are not happy about the U.S. leaving, despite what the
Fake News says, because now they will have to fight ISIS and others, who they hate, without us.
I am building by far the most powerful military in the world. ISIS hits us they are doomed!
Those trump tweets you quoted are from a mind of an adolescent, not an adult. Whether the israeli quisling pot belly in chief actually writes that drama queen toss, or some team of like adolescent fruity pebbles ™ freaks write it, is irrelevant. The usa is in the hands of a total freakshow like this world has rarely seen.
That is what likud is.
You’re right vot tak. On top of that the tweets make zero sense. The first tweet says that “we have defeated isis in Syria, my only reason for being there.” Then in 3rd it says “Russia, Iran, Syria & others are the local enemy of ISIS. We were doing there work.” Lol if Isis was defeated in Syria, what’s left for Russia, Iran and Syria? He went against his own words, within a few tweets.
The real question is what’s going on here? We know all moves the US makes in the ME is for the sake of the Zio state. We are missing something here, and also focusing on the wrong questions. The only one we should be asking is, How does this move support the zio state?
“The only one we should be asking is, How does this move support the zio state?”
When it comes to policy by the americans, and especially by this quisling trump regime, this is the most important question to ask.
I totally agree with you. Trumply twitter and video seemed like a parody to me.
I had to laugh. It reminded me of Gogol’s “Diary of a madman”
”Russia, Iran, Syria & many others are not happy about the U.S. leaving, despite what the
Fake News says, because now they will have to fight ISIS and others, who they hate, without us.
I am building by far the most powerful military in the world. ISIS hits us they are doomed!”
Verdict: Not bad for a top notch Exceptional and Indispensable creature — he did manage to draw one (1) factually correct conclusion: Russia, Iran, and Syria do hate ISIS. The rest is the usual kind of crazy, impertinent horseshit we’re used to hear.
“Interesting development in the last two days. I’ve had a nagging doubt all along that this consistent and ongoing coup d’etat against the sitting President of the United States of America, the likes of which we’ve never seen even in the darkest days of the President Nixon coup, would eventually be turned around.”
Coup? What coup was that?
The latest from “dear leader’s” war against the people of Russia:
US to Boost Funding for Ukrainian Navy After Kerch Row With Russia
The United States is providing Kiev with additional funding to build up its navy in light of the Kerch strait incident, the State Department said in a press release.
“In response to Russia’s dangerous escalation and unjustified November 25 attack on three Ukrainian naval vessels near the Kerch Strait, the Department of State, subject to Congressional approval, will provide an additional $10 million in Foreign Military Financing to further build Ukraine’s naval capabilities,” the release said on Friday.”
Coup? Try psyop to bamboozle the clueless into giving their support to zionazi-gay policy and war crimes.
I just read some of MSM in US bemoaning the departure of SecDef Mattis as if Marse’ Robert had abandoned the Army of Northern Virginia in a fit of temper. So, here’s a little info about the good General, who was shoved down President Trump’s throat with a special dispensation from Congress to serve in senior Government less than 7 years after retiring from active service.
Look up Fallujah and what happened there under Mattis’ command. Also, Raqqah and Mosul occurred under his watch, as did several false flag chemical attacks in Syria, as did the clandestine evacuation of senior IGIL command with their families from Syria via US helicopters, as did numerous ‘accidental’ attacks on Syrian Arab Army positions and units, as did ‘accidental’ attacks on Russian troops leading to dead and wounded, as did the mortar attack on a Russian field hospital that killed Doktors and Medical Sisters treating local civilians, as did the evacuation of the notorious ‘white helmet’ terror organization, as did the sucker shoot down of the IL 20. The list goes on.
Turkey and America were cancelling each-other out in a hegalian dialectic, benefiting Syria and leading me to wonder if this was not the plan on all sides; I have my doubts that Erdogen will actually seek to fill the gaps left behind by the American army. The best solution would be to leave Syria alone long before it has no other choice. Time will tell.
The people who are most displeased about this move are the Israelis and their supporters.
People should know that America’s involvement in Syria was always about Israel.
The Israelis are always of the view that their interests rank higher than all others, so despite the fact that the majority of Americans want nothing to do with Syria, and no vital US interest is served by being there, Israel and its backers believe that US troops should stay and support Israel’s goals of destabilizing Syria while simultaneously countering Iran.
Trump tearing up the JCPOA – which Mattis opposed by the way – is not enough for Israel.
Trump moving the US embassy to Jerusalem is not enough for Israel.
The entity that gets approximately 4 $ billion dollars from US taxpayers annually, or what amounts to 10 $million dollars a day, is not satisfied and is also demanding that Trump keep US troops on the ground in Syria.
We must therefore brace ourselves for massive false flag ops by Israel to have this decision reversed.
They have no moral compass and consequently, they are prepared to perform heinous crimes in the furtherance of their interests.
I anticipate that they will do things and have it blamed on Iran or Hezbollah or Syria to justify US boots staying on the ground long term.
The forces in Syria become undefended targets “hostages” to Iran, if the US were to attack Iran…more or less.
Soooo Get those fellas and the Stae Departs fellas, out quick – so the bombing of Iran can go ahead right away?
see: “The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS ‘John C. Stennis,’ belonging to the Bahrain-based 5th Fleet, arrived in the Persian Gulf on Friday. It became the first American warship of its type to cross the Strait of Hormuz and sail in the waters off the Iranian coast since US President Donald Trump pulled the nation out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program in May. “at RT
“see: “The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS ‘John C. Stennis,’ belonging to the Bahrain-based 5th Fleet, arrived in the Persian Gulf on Friday.”
More chest beating from a “wee little man” :-D
This is a political stunt designed to impress the brain dead dittoheads in the usa. If the usa were to attack Iran right now with that task force right there within easy striking range if Iranian forces, those ships would be smoking wrecks in minutes. If the usa was seriously threatening imminent attack, the task force would be 100s of miles away, out of range of Iranian radars and countermeasures.
Of course. Of course the carrier group is obsolete and very “sinkable”…
Who says Iran would sink it?
Who says a “Liberty Event 2.0” might not sink it… https://theintercept.com/2017/06/06/fifty-years-later-nsa-keeps-details-of-israels-uss-liberty-attack-secret/
One must assume the worst intent, obsolete or not.
And since the ships are obsolete, their only remaining purpose is – ah – sinking…
That was the function of the US fleet at Pearl…to sink and become a Great Cause for War…as the records left by FDR and many other sources show…
Little man? Yes. Does that matter?
Withal, keep this up and bad stuff happens…
Like I said, Xerxes had both the option and the good sense to back off after Salamis…our clown and his circus do not have these qualities, do they?
Auslander, you are a solace, your
http://thesaker.is/what-can-follow-americas-withdrawal-from-syria/#comment-596829 – comment
trigered my eg to be laid
everything plain and clear for the astrologers
This is pure ‘high octane speculation’ but the centers of the world monetary system are now engaged in raising interest rates and quantitative tightening meaning the world economy will now go into a slump, in America, and into the debt trap elsewhere. Bringing the troops home ends some big expenses and frees up these troops should be needed other than in Syria or Afghanistan and likely Ukraine as the coming economic warfare could go hot in some localities more near and dear to TPTB. Put another way we must take in the whole strategic operation if we are to understand the tactical maneuvers in any one area.
Daesh Presence in Syria is ‘Manna to US’ – Veteran War Journalist
“Elijah J. Magnier: US forces were not fighting ISIS [Daesh] seriously. We saw how the US and coalition forces bombed the Syrian Army and its allies while attempting to cross the Euphrates or to pursue ISIS[Daesh] in the desert around al-Tanaf, the Syrian-Iraqi border crossing occupied by the US.
The US halted its campaign against ISIS [Daesh] for many months and was observing how ISIS[Daesh] was living in “peaceful environment” in al-Hasaka and Deir ez-Zor provinces.
If the US forces were seriously aiming to eliminate ISIS [Daesh], the objective could have been reached in a couple of months, as the Syrian Army and Russia did when liberating Deir ez-Zor and Abu Kamal.
The presence of ISIS [Daesh] is a bonus to the US: it gives the US a reason to occupy Syria; it drains the Syrian forces in the long term if these are allowed to expand; it keeps the sectarian feeling alive in the Levant.
All these points are manna to the US, willing to see the area unstable, mainly with Russia and Iran supporting the Syrian sovereignty and unity.
Elijah J. Magnier: Syria will be stronger if the US allows the Syrian army to move in al-Hasaka and liberate the territory. If the US open the road to Turkey first, then a part of Syria can be annexed under Ankara’s control.
Yes, Syria has won and Assad is recognised today as a leader by many Arab and western countries and the regime change objective has failed.
Elijah J. Magnier: Turkey would like to have part of Syria and eliminate the Kurds on its border. Nevertheless, Russia doesn’t agree with president Erdogan’s intention to occupy part of Syria and is, to date, standing in his way.
Turkey is a NATO member and would flirt with the US inevitable. However, president Erdogan is trying to create a balance between both superpowers.”
What I miss in this analysis is Washington’s options. So let me take my modest shot at them:
On the one hand Washington might be tempted to let Syria fill the voids they leave behind by retreating from Syria’s north-east, just to not grant Erdogan a clear victory. It’s a kind of vindictive motivation (rather than based on cool-headed geostrategic interests), but vindictive behaviour is not new to Washington.
On the other hand Washington would be able to continue a devided Syria (second best option after overthrowing Assad’s government) even without the presence of its US-troops, by letting Turkey fill the voids they leave behind and (most important of all) restore some unity with its most important European NATO member.
I’m afraid that the second option will be Washington’s favorite, because in the long run it suits better Washington’s evil plans.
Then again, once US-troops are out, it will only be a matter of time until Russia, Syria and Turkey will reach some kind of agreement to restore Syria’s integrity and sovereignty. Because in the long run (and absent US military pressure) Turkey cannot afford to be at loggerheads with Russia and its Syrian ally (hosting, by now virtually permanent Russian naval and an airforce bases): there are just too many economic interests at stake for Turkey, demanding good relations with Russia.
So if Washington is smart enough (which is a big “if”), realizing that the restoration of Syria’s integrity and sovereignty is just inevitable, they might actually cut their losses and opt for letting Syria fill the voids and end the war.
But then (then) again: after everything is said and done, how will the US-Empire (and Russia) be viewed in Israel and the Middle-East and the rest of the world in general, after the war in Syria ends? In my opinion, however Washington is going to leave Syria, they’re going to leave with not one but two black eyes. So, damage control should be Washington’s mayor concern.
But I cannot really disect wich option would be least damaging for Washington. So in spite of my best shot, I lack the knowlege to solve these riddles. On the other hand, during the past decade or so, Washington has not shown much rational behaviour, so any attempt to rationalize possible future behaviour of such a hysterical regime is rather futile to begin with.
“On the other hand Washington would be able to continue a devided Syria (second best option after overthrowing Assad’s government)”
The goal was always to divide Syria (see Oded Yinon from the 1980s and New Middle East Maps from the 1990s). It is a war by and for Zionists using their Kurdish proxies as occupying forces and so-called ISIS as the bait-and-switch excuse.
You seem fixated on Turkey but it is the US Kurdish forces that are the main occupying forces. Syria is defacto partitioned until the SDF surrenders or the SAA goes in and forcibly takes back NE Syria. The Kurds have no right to any of that territory. Watch out for anyone pushing for “Kurdish land rights” — they will be disinfo agent for Zionism, i.e. Israel 2.0.
For anyone who believes that America is sincere about withdrawing from Syria, I’d like to reward you with an honorary B.S. degree in International Relations from Trump University. It’s a very prestigious honor! ;-)
The Americans are much like a cockroach infestation. Once they arrive in your home, they rarely leave of their own free will, without being subject to, shall we say, an exterminator.
America currently has its colonial occupation troops in Japan, Germany, and South Korea–despite the fact that the wars that precipitated these occupations ended almost 70-80 years ago!
Yet, some people believe that America is withdrawing from Syria or the Middle East?!
What is happening in Syria is that the United States is merely making a *tactical* redeployment of its occupation troops from Syria to …. Iraqi Kurdistan, particularly Erbil province, where the US is plotting to build another military base there to add to the several US military bases that *already* exist in Northern Iraq.
Moreover, the United Snakes is deploying thousands of its troop to a location in Iraq not far from the Iraq-Iranian border.
All the Trumptards who are are desperate to sell the con of Trump as an anti-interventionist or even antiwar president increasingly resemble all the Obamabots, who tried to sell the similar delusion that Obama was really the president of Hope and Change.
From: “US Army to Set Up Another Military Base in Iraq’s Kurdistan”
“The US army is planning to set up a new military base in Erbil province in Iraq’s Kurdistan, a well-informed source said on Sunday.
The source said that the US has paved way for transferring its forces from Syria to Iraq, disclosing that Washington is planning to build a base in Saqlawah in Erbil province in Northern Iraq.
In the meantime, al-Arabiyah satellite network reported that the US already set up a military base in Harir region near the town of Shaqlaqah which is the United States’ fifth base in Iraq’s Kurdistan.
It further added that almost 2,000 US forces will be transferred to Iraq to be deployed at a base 60km from border with Iran.”
”The Americans are much like a cockroach infestation. Once they arrive in your home, they rarely leave of their own free will, without being subject to, shall we say, an exterminator.”
Very true. And let it be known too that if El Trumpo ever were to try some sincere anti-interventonism, he’d be long since ousted/assassinated (an assassination to be blamed on Russia/Moscow/the Kremlin/Putin, of course).
Really, to your average exceptional and indispensable Pindo ”Hope” and ”Change” mean improved chances of lasting success achieved by US instigated mayhem and murder around the planet.
US Military Intervention Reduced Mosul to ‘Hell’ – Iraqi Fighter
“With the United States due to begin a slow pullout of its approximately 2,000 soldiers from Syria, questions abound in Western media as to whether the withdrawal will help to fertilise the soil for the regrowth of Daesh.
However, Sputnik spoke to one man, Ali Younnes, of the Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces who fought to expel the terrorist group from Mosul in 2017, who argues that a US troop pullout can only be a good thing.
This is what #Mosul looks like after liberation. I bet you 2 trillion dinars that more civilians were killed than #ISIS fighters. pic.twitter.com/xPQD20eW1z
— CIARÁN (@CIARAN_78) 24 December 2018
“Wherever American forces get involved, they occupy, invade or bomb and the country goes to hell,” he told Sputnik over a crackling telephone line from his home in Baghdad’s Al-Thawra district.
“Trump says that America beat Daesh, but really most of the fight was carried out by indigenous forces here in Iraq and in Syria. The US killed more innocent people than Daesh with its bombs,” he adds with a flare of anger in his voice.”
“but really most of the fight was carried out by indigenous forces here in Iraq and in Syria.”
Slight correction required — those native forces do not include the Kurdish militias. The Kurdish forces worked with the other US proxy forces (e.g. ISIS) to occupy one third of Syria NE of the Euphrates. Whenever ISIS was provided a safe corridor or a helicopter escort (lol!), the SDF moved in as the substitute garrison.
ISIS was a fake label for myriad Western sponsored mercenary groups spearheaded by Western covert and special forces. There is no way on this earth that the likes of the SDF ever fought such a force; in fact, they worked with those forces.
So all praise to the SAA, Russia, Hezbollah, Iran and the PMU. It is an insult to all those soldiers to suggest the Kurds were ever part of the resistance. Do not fall for Israel 2.0 — the Syrian Kurds are Syrians and should not be allowed to carve up Syria.
Very puzzling Trump tweets today that Saudi is going to finance the rebuilding of Syria…..considering Europe USA and others have said they will not have funds for rebuilding unless Assad goes……what could happen…..Saudi troops replace the americans east of Euphrates?????
Netanyahu Unsuccessfully Tried to Split Up Syria – Turkish FM
“The Turkish PM’s statement comes amid the ongoing war of words between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. On Sunday, the Israeli prime minister called the Turkish president an “anti-Semitic dictator” who is “obsessed with Israel.” Erdogan responded by describing Netanyahu as “the head of state terror.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of attempting to partition Syria by using Kurdish forces in northern and eastern parts of the country.
“Netanyahu is worried because he discovered too late that he can’t divide Syria”, Cavusoglu said, claiming that Netanyahu planned to achieve this goal “with the help of the terrorists” from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), blacklisted by Ankara as a terrorist organisation.
He slammed the Israeli PM for “having sympathy towards [the] YPG”, also arguing that “Netanyahu and the PKK have something else in common — they are both baby killers.”
Cavusoglu’s remarks follow Erdogan and Netanyahu trading accusations in their latest war of words.”
Good, this important article got posted this time. I had posted it here around lunchtime u.s. east time and the mod deliberately blocked it.
I thought the amount of the article you posted was OK.I figure my colleague thought it was too much.Too avoid situations like this in the future I suggest you pay more attention to rule #9 many of you posts ride the edge of that rule.MOD
Rule # 9
The cut-n-paste long segments of texts into the comment section is banned. Use your own words and your own thoughts and, if needed, add a short quote or a link to an outside source.
It wasn’t that.
What happened was I thought I had this entry open when posting the article originally, but was in the cafe instead. I realized the error after clicking the post button. A bit later I reposted the article here and also a short comment under the approved posting in the cafe explaining what happened. That explanation comment was also disappeared.
BTW, I don’t think I’ve had comments rejected due to cnp, the mod simply edited out everything below the link and left a short note.
What happens to the oil wells and infrastructure. Who will pay for the upkeep of the 10s of thousands of nusra jihadis and their families? What happens to the 15k uighurs and the 10k chechens? What is this trump talk about saudis footing Syria reconstruction costs? Many unanswered issues that may lead to a full scale war later on.
They got paid for their service already. Monthly salary? No pension to be expected. If they wanted pension, they should have fought for the government.
Turkey is a big country, the Anatolia they stole from the Greeks. Why can’t they just let a little bit of it go? It would seem so sensible for them to just slice off a little piece at the eastern end and give it to the Kurds. It would solve all their problems, including money problems. Why this insane determination to keep every scrap of the stolen land?
Russia doubts US will withdraw troops from Syria
“The Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, Sergei Ryabkov, said on Monday that he doubts the U.S. will withdraw from Syria, despite the recent announcement from President Donald Trump.
“The U.S.’ presence in Syria is based on a combination of interests,” Ryabkov began.
“I don’t believe the U.S. will withdraw its from Syria,” he said, adding that “we are aware of and informed enough about what is happening with regard to the withdrawal or preservation of the U.S. military presence in Syria.”
Ryabkov said that the U.S.’ actions in Syria have not changed, despite Trump’s recent announcement about their withdrawal.”
Turkey encourages France to get out of Syria
“Turkish Foreign Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Monday evening that the French government’s decision to remain in Syria has “no benefit” to their cause.
Cavusoglu encouraged the French government to reconsider their strategy regarding Syria and leave the country.”
Don’t be fooled by America’s phony political “conflict” over Trump’s equally phony withdrawal of American stormtroopers from Syria or, for that matter, Afghanistan. It’s standard American disinformation.
This withdrawal is an American shell game, whereby the USA is shifting from official US military occupation to one based on the use of puppet … sorry … private mercenary outfits (similar to the infamous Blackwater mercs); British, French, or NATO occupation troops; as well as redeployment of US troops to Iraqi Kurdistan, where they can still attack Syria if they need arises.
As Vladimir Putin incisively quipped about this alleged US withdrawal: “We don’t see any signs yet of the withdrawal of U.S. troops,” he said. “How long has the United States been in Afghanistan? Seventeen years? And almost every year they say they’re pulling out their troops.”
“No matter how it appears, Trump isn’t getting out of Syria and Afghanistan: He’s just shifting the burden to allies and relying more on mercenaries”
More importantly, this issue raises fraudulent nature of the “debate” between the Trump regime and its critics about American imperial policy in general.
The idea that Trump is an anti-interventionist is yet another American deception, aggressively propagandized by Trump/MAGA shills.
Both the Trump Regime and its critics are cheerleaders of American Empire. Their so-called disagreements are only a conflict over the *tactics* that the American Empire should use–rather than any anti-interventionist motivation.
As the article above states:
“Mattis’s resignation has been interpreted as a protest against Trump’s “ceding critical territory to Russia and Iran”  rather than a rebuke to Trump for relying on allies to bear the burden of pursuing US goals in Syria. The defense secretary’s resignation letter was silent on Trump’s decision to bring US troops home from Syria and Afghanistan, and instead dwelled on “alliances and partnerships.” The letter outlined Mattis’s concerns that Trump’s turn in direction fails to pay adequate attention to “maintaining strong alliances and showing respect” to allies. While this has been construed as a reprimand for abandoning the US tip of the spear in Syria, the Kurds, Mattis referred to “alliances and partnerships” in the plural, indicating that his grievances go further than US relations with the Kurds. Instead, Mattis expressed concerns that are consistent with a longstanding complaint within the US foreign policy establishment that Trump’s incessant efforts to pressure allies to bear more of the cost of maintaining the US empire are alienating US allies and undermining the “system of alliances and partnerships” that comprise it.
Trump never intended to bring a radical redefinition of the aims of US foreign policy to the presidency, only a different way of achieving them, one that would take advantage of his self-proclaimed prowess at negotiation. Trump’s negotiation tactics involve nothing more than pressuring others to pick up the tab, which is what he has done here. The French, the British, and other US allies will replace US boots on the ground, along with mercenaries who will be bankrolled by Arab oil monarchies.”
Um, there are a few problems here, majorly concerning Turkey.
Firstly, I suspect the Syrian Arab Republic is going to have as much difficulty regaining Idlib as they will regaining the Golan Heights. I have always regarded that as a land-grab by Sultan Erdogan, when his support of the Islamic State went north after the Russian Federation started bombing the IS oil truck supply line that financed them via Turkish ports.
He has positioned token Turkish forces in ‘border posts’ around Idlib, majorly north of the Al-Qaeda (HTS) occupied areas. To protect what remains of the ‘Free Syrian Army’, now the western and Wahhabist Gulf governments have given up on their amazingly clever plan to destroy Syria and bugger up the ‘Shi-ite Crescent’.
The ‘Free Syrian Army’ is now called the ‘Liberation National Army’, essentially left as a Turkish project.
No-one should forget how Turkey initially took Jarablus, virtually without a shot being fired. Apparently half of the died-in-the wool Takfiris simply shaved off their beards and swapped sides, the rest went to Al-Bab or Al-Raqqah to make their stand. Then the Turks swept into Afrin, because the idiots there thought the Yankees would protect them and refused protection of the Syrian Arab Army (and Russians).
Much like those east of the Euphrates. Once the Yankees made an appearance, many Arab tribes swapped sides too. This is why they have so much trouble taking the last remnants of IS near the Iraqi border: it’s Arabs (not Kurds) vs. Arabs, without any great conviction. Former best friends.
The Kurds in Hasakah province have been tossed under the bus, and now have to talk to Damascus for protection.
Really, it took no great geo-political wisdom to understand that the US would rather try to re-establish relations with 80-million-odd Turks (NATO country) than keep a couple of million Kurds onside, despite the anti-Iranian hysteria that has always prevailed in the US since their puppet Shah-led government got overthrown, and fucked up their ownership of the middle-east. Which is just a bit of justice really, after the CIA buggered up the Mossadegh socialist government.
The ‘Rojava Project’ is now completely dead in the water, which must seriously upset Netanyahnyah.
And Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
Trump is an American, and a business man. He wants to bring manufacturing back to the US. The video bites of Trump wearing a Jew-boy cap, and waving swords with Saudi’s… fluff and nonsense. His heart is not in maintaining an expensive and unrealistic American hegemony for no profit. Especially now the US doesn’t need Saudi oil.
What indeed will follow the withdrawal?
Some thoughtful analysis @voltaire just now >
“…In other words, James Mattis does not contest the logic of the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and Syria, but what will probably follow – the dislocation of the alliances around the United States and finally, the possible dismantling of NATO. For the Secretary for Defense, the United States must reassure their allies by giving them the impression that they know what they are doing and that they are the strongest. It matters little whether this is true or not, the point is to maintain the cohesion between the allies, whatever the cost. However, for the President, there is a clear and present danger. The United States have already lost their first economic status to China, and now their first military place to Russia. It is necessary to cease being the one-eyed man leading the blind, but first to look after ones own.
In this affair, James Mattis is acting like a military man. He knows that a nation without allies is lost from the start. Donald Trump thinks like the CEO of a company. He must first clean up the deficient affiliates which are threatening to sink his enterprise….”
But the full essay and especially the end notes are very astute and germane…
………………….at the time of the election I said that I thought T-man’s best function would be as the clown act that covers for a salvage job……………….. typical NYC…what else could the collapse of empire look like…Shakespeare would be jealous…
Hey, it’s Christmas Day, so what do the Jew-nazis think is an appropriate thing to do? Attack the goys, naturally. In a very cowardly manner.
Syrian air defenses intercept ‘hostile targets’ over Damascus (VIDEOS)
Syrian Air Defenses Intercept Missiles Near Damascus – Reports
Israel engages air defenses to intercept anti-aircraft missile from Syria – IDF
This is israeli “respect” for non Jewish religious holidays. No doubt trump and his “christian” zionist supporters are proud of their their cowardly master today.
Israeli warplanes bomb Syrian military site in west Damascus (video)
Israel’s airstrikes on Syria threatened 2 civilian flights landing in Beirut & Damascus – Russia
“The Israeli military put two civilian airliners in immediate danger, Igor Konashenkov, the Defense Ministry spokesman, told reporters. “Provocative acts by the Israeli Air Force endangered two passenger jets when six of their F-16s carried out airstrikes on Syria from Lebanese airspace.”
The IDF’s F-16 flew in as civilian jets were landing at Beirut and Damascus airport. The Syrian military didn’t deploy surface-to-air missiles and electronic jamming “to prevent a tragedy” and let Damascus air traffic control divert one of the passenger jets to a reserve airport in Khmeimim.
The Israeli Air Force used as many as 16 US-made laser-guided GBU-39 bombs, but only two of them reached their targets. Most were intercepted by Syria’s air defenses, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
Two precision munitions hit a logistics compound 7km away from Damascus, injuring three personnel there.
The statement largely confirmed a previous report by Syria’s state-run news agency SANA that went public overnight.”
We Saw Proof in Syria Terrorists Received Funding From Abroad’ – Ex-French MP
“A French delegation visited the city of Douma on the outskirts of the Syrian capital last week. The foreign guests inspected the extent of the damage to the city caused by terrorists, toured prisons, and saw the torture chambers that the terrorists had built, as well as evaluated the progress of reconstruction work in the city.
The head of the delegation, a former French MP, Thierry Mariani, voiced his condemnation over the vast destruction and expressed sympathy for the local population who has been through so many trials and tribulations. “The prisons that we have seen, especially the cells, indicate that the terrorist organisations do not have the least bit of respect for human rights. The presence of modern equipment in the carefully-constructed tunnels proves that the terrorists receive assistance and large funding from abroad”, Mariani said.
Other members of the delegation noted that all around the city of Douma, the restoration of buildings and infrastructure is being carried out; schools and shops are opening up. They also hailed the heroism and the sacrifices of the Syrian Army that fought to restore security and stability in their country.”
I like the suggestion (sarcasm). He claims: I didn’t do it, they did it, or they forced me to do it, or like BS.
He was part of the problem.
Syrian opposition militants ready to lay down arms once US troops leave Al-Tanf base
“Members of several Syrian opposition armed units are ready to lay down their arms and surrender to the Syrian army once US troops and their allies leave the Al-Tanf base in southeastern Syria, the Surya Al-An news portal reporters on Tuesday. According to the news portal, a large number of militants stationed in a 55-wide area around Al-Tanf have expressed readiness to surrender and make reconciliation agreements with the Syrian authorities.
At the same time, field commanders from the Mahavir as-Saura brigade, trained by US and British instructors, have demanded a safe passage to take their forces to northern Syria. The brigade comprises about 6,000 militants.”
The “PMC” forces, such as Blackwater etc may, if they are found under arms in Syria, be regarded as terrorists (which they are), and attacked – this idea is mooted at Pravda.
Just one more possible consequence of the retreat.
I’m curious…… just this once we get to presume America is telling the truth? Why?
Look at the their past record – what countries have they invaded, bombed +/or occupied —- and left? You’ve only got some 80+ to pick from. They never leave so why would this time (Syria-right-next-door-inbetween-Israel-and-Iran) be any different?
All Trump is doing is opening his yapper and blowing raspberries out of it. Just pharty noises. He’s …. keeping his election promise : this time next year when they’re still there he’ll be saying he pulled out and they’ll still be there**. …. Unless of course you want to pretend (like he will) it’s Blackwater there and not Americuh duh!? And the rich Arab dictator types and the rich Jewish and Zionist bankster types will be footing the bill … paying Trumpie by buying all that very nicely very expensive Yanker MIC equipment.
Come now, surely you’ve noticed how loudly Nuttiyahoo is not screeching about “America Leaving W-T-Screaming-F!!?” If he really thought they were really leaving he’d be frothing at the bit, twisting and biting and shredding his tiny whities to saliva dripping ragged bits’n pieces and we’d all be watching another Nutty powerpoint presentation about how Animal Asaad is going to allow Evil Iran to occupy poor lil Syria and drive Israel into the sea and how Israel will “Defend Themselves!” and save the whole world from Iran the Terrible every time we turned on the news.
** Americans have this remarkable ability to hold two (or more) opposing views at the same time and know with 100% certainty —- “it’s absolutely true.” …. I think it’s a result of all the preservatives and other polluting junk in their food combined with all that lead in their water. (Doesn’ make for smarts.)
Cat Pillar on December 27, 2018 · at 3:32 pm EST/EDT
I’m curious…… just this once we get to presume America is telling the truth? Why?
yes, why is anyone believing this at all?Taking it at face value? Promoting it as gospel truth?
Really, it comes down to why should this claim of withdrawal be taken as fact when it should be taken as simply more of that perception management obfuscating for the goal of remaking the middle east for the benefit of Israel- It’s been smoke and mirrors from the get go.
Why is this claim being touted as different other then to promote still more disinfo to obfuscate the objective that’s been at hand for better then a decade. The same objective I’ve written about at my place for so many years now- Greater Isreal/Greater Kurdistan= Isreal 2.0. All done in plain sight. The best place for monumental change to occur. Out in the open but obfuscated by gibberish and mumbo jumbo held in place by the cognitive dissonance of it’s audience
Kurdistan aka “Second Israel”- Ethnic Cleansing the Indigenous of the Middle East
Hi Ghassan – thanks for the article – it helps alot to understand the crazy politics going on in Syria – I was wondering if you would be so kind as to explain the Israel Damascus thing that just happened – and why Syria didn’t use their new S300s –