On July 1st of this year – just before an imminent Ukie attack – I made a short post entitled Novorussia – Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle in which I was trying to prepare my readers for the possible consequences of a massive Ukrainian assault.
Разбор полетов – “after action report”
Looking back, I would say that what actually took place was neither the best, nor the worst, option, but an “in the middle” kind of outcome: initially, the Ukies almost severed Donetsk from Luganks, but they never had the capability to really enter these cities and execute urban offensive operations. The junta forces did penetrated deeply in Novorussian territory, but they were soon surrounded and the famous “cauldrons” began to form. The biggest loss for the Novorussians was the loss of Slaviansk and Kramotorsk which Strelkov attempted to hold as long as possible apparently in the hope of a Russian military intervention, even though he always knew that Slaviansk was indefensible. When it became clear that the Russians would not come, Strelkov did the right thing and pulled his forces out of Slaviansk and into Donetsk.
All in all, the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) proved to be a force far superior to the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) which suffered from the following problems:
- Criminally incompetent top commanders in Kiev and at the operational headquarters.
- Terrible logistics
- Poor morale
- Poor training
- Poor coordination
- A hostile local population
The strong points of the JRF were:
- An overwhelming advantage in firepower
- An overwhelming advantage in armor
- An overwhelming advantage in numbers
- A monopoly on heavy weapons
- A total control of the skies
- The individual courage and resilience of the soldiers of the regular and, especially, special army units
The Novorussians negated these advantages by never presenting a lucrative target, by their high mobility and by their extremely successful air-defenses.
The weak points of the NAF were:
- A acute lack of firepower
- A acute lack of armor
- A acute lack of men (especially specialists)
- The total absence of heavy weapons
- The absence of a true central command
The strong points of the NAF were:
- The extremely high morale of the all the fighting men and woman
- Very competent commanders and experienced officers
- Very strong tactical skills
- An excellent knowledge and use of the terrain
- Excellent intelligence (no doubt with Russian GRU help)
- Extremely effective air-defenses (which imposed a no-fly zone on the Ukies)
- Strong support from the local population
- A remarkable network of highly skilled technicians capable of repairing, cannibalizing and even rebuilding weapons with old, damaged and abandoned Ukie hardware
All in all the Novorussians did a superb job negating all the advantages of the Ukies while maximizing on their own strong points. There were ups and down, but I would say that the bottom line of the July-September offensive was a crushing and humiliating defeat for the Ukies and a superb victory for the Novorussians.
What if the Junta attacks again?
Bu now – Sunday morning – there is a quasi-consensus that the Junta is about to launch yet another massive offensive. Assuming that this is true – and I personally think this is very likely – what are we likely to see? Furthermore, since the same causes tend to produce the same effects, the key question is this: what have the Ukies learned from their defeat this summer and what could they do differently this time around?
Alas, I don’t have access to any first hand information about how the Junta has been preparing itself for the new assault. Here is what I have found out through the Russian and Ukrainian media:
Junta-controlled military factories have been working night and day to produce a large number of tanks, APCs, IFVs and artillery pieces. The Ukrainians have been training their SU-25 and Mi-24 pilots. New volunteer units have been created and regular army units have been re-organized. The Ukies have built defensive lines along key sectors of the front (such apparently “defensive” preparations are actually crucial for any offensive plans since a highly prepared defensive sector can be held by a numerically smaller forces while preventing an counter-attack or envelopment from the other side). We have to assume that more men have been mobilized and trained and that the next Ukie assault will again pit a very large Ukrainian force against a much smaller Novorussian one. But will that be enough for the Ukies to prevail?
I don’t think so.
What the Ukies are preparing is rather obvious. They will pick several key axes of attack along which they will unleash a massive artillery attack. This fire preparation will serve to prepare for a push by Ukrainian armored units (this time around we can expect the Ukrainian infantry to properly defend their tanks and not the other way around). The Ukrainians will not push deep into Donetsk or Lugansk, but rather they will try to, again, cut-off and surround Donetsk in a pincer attack and then negotiate some kind of quasi-surrender by the Novorussians. At most, they will try to enter a few important suburbs. I don’t expect much action around Luganks – Donetsk is far more exposed.
Now, if I am correct and this is what happens, then please understand and remember this: the correct Novorussian response to this plan is to begin by retreating. It makes no sense whatsoever for the Novorussians to sit and fight from positions which are densely covered by Ukrainian artillery strikes. During the first Ukrainian attack I was dismayed to see how many people clearly did not understand the importance retreats in warfare. The “hurray-patriots” in particular were adamant that the initial Novorussian retreat was a clear sign that, as always, “Putin had betrayed Novorussia” (when the NAF went on a long and brilliant counter-offensive, these “hurray-patriots” fell silent for a while until the moment when Moscow stopped the NAF from seizing Mariupol, at which point they resumed chanting their mantra). The fact is that retreating against a superior forces is the logical thing to do, especially if you have had the time to prepare for a two, possibly, three echelon defense. While I do not know that for a fact, this is what I expect the Novorussians have been doing during all the length of the ceasefire: preparing a well-concealed and layered defense.
My hope and expectation is that once the JRF attacks the NAF will, again, carefully retreat, pull the JFR in, and then being to gradually degrade the attacking force. I particular hope that the Russians have finally send some much needed guided anti-tank weapons through the voentorg.
Second, the lack of political unity in Novorussia is not as big a military problem as it is a political one. Most Novorussian commanders are clearly very gifted and at least as competent as Strelkov. Folks like Bezler, Kononov, Zakharchenko, Mozgovoi, Khodakovskii, Motorola, Givi and many others do not need to be told what to do to do the right thing in their area of responsibility. The weaker Cossack units have now apparently been reassigned to the Russian-Novorussian border and only combat proven units are facing the Ukie side.
I don’t think that the Ukie air force will be of much use, if anything the Novorussian air defense probably got even better. Mostly, I fear their long range artillery and their sheer numbers. But even if we look at the worst case scenario (successful Ukie attack cutting off Donetsk) I don’t think that the the JRF will prevail. There is still no doubt in my mind whatsoever that if Novorussia is really threatened then Russia will intervene, overtly if needed. From what all sources are reporting, the voentorg is working at full capacity and weapons are flowing in in very large numbers including sophisticated ones. I think that Putin’s plan is to try to keep the Nazis out of Novorussia only by means of voentorg. But should that not be enough, I am confident that Russia will overtly move in. There is no way that Russia can accept the fall of Novorussia to the Nazis.
The good news is that the Ukies most definitely don’t have what it takes for a long, sustained effort. They will risk it all on one powerful push. If that push fails, we will see a flurry of US/EU/OSCE “diplomacy” to save the Ukies and come right back to the negotiating table. At that point the conflict with be “frozen” again (on the Ukie side literally) and the focus will be on keeping the regime in power or replacing it with something else. After that, the next attack can only come in the Spring on 2015.
Finally, there is also a more optimistic possibility: the real reason behind the chorus of warnings about a Ukie attack might be the Russian way of telling them “we know what you are up to and we are ready”. In theory that should deter a Ukie attack. Alas, we need to remember that a) there is no real power in Kiev – all the decisions are taking by the USA and b) the goal of the next attack might not be to win, but to draw Russia into an overt intervention. I personally believe that this was the plan all along and I have been saying that for months: the real goal of the AngloZionists is to force a Russian military intervention in Novorussia while the real goal of the Kremlin is to stay out and keep Novorussia alive by means of voentorg on one hand, and chaos in Banderastan on the other. So far the Kremlin has prevailed. We will probably soon find out if that strategy will work again.
The Ukie regime will attack because the USSA will dictate it. The Ukies will lose but the USSA will use the war as part of their ongoing propaganda campaign against Putin. Besides, it is GOOD if slavs spill each others blood in a civil war.
Soro’s call for the EU to bail out the Ukraine makes it obvious that the neocons/neofascists are desperate for war since nothing else will salvage their failure. They lost Crimea, a fatal blow to Soros Whitestream pipeline plan, plus the huge loss of the offshore black sea nat gas fields. The loss of Donbass also means much less fracking,and coal.
Meanwhile Europe is stuck with an economic basket case that will require hundreds of billions to bail out. Moreover, without Russia, any bailout plan is doomed to failure.
Also, notice that the nightly temperatures in Kiev are now below freezing. Perhaps they can heat their homes and offices with cow farts and USSA political hot air.
This is why the neocons hate Putin, who was given a poor hand and still managed to clean out the other players.
I tend to agree with most of what you said. The NAF defenders can do the job of defense if Russia gives them weapons of a modern nature. I speak mostly of modern MANPADS for Anti Aircraft and Anti Tank work. Infantry equipped with todays modern missiles can defend well. But Russia can’t send junk from the 70’s or 80’s, it needs to be guided and 2000’s. ATGM’s are simply murderous on tanks. I also agree, Artillery is Kiev’s real strength! Great care must be taken to remain mobile in defense and not get pinned down in position long enough for Kiev’s artillery to be brought into range in large numbers.
Actually there was one other negative about the JRF, their strategy (it’s part of the criminal incompetence of the JRF command).
They converted their strong point into a weak point:
~90% or more of their efforts/force/material were directed against civilians. (war crimes)
In other words they squandered, they wasted their advantage by their criminal actions, and depleted their own capabilities, setting themselves up for loss.
They diverted ~90% their actions away from defeating the NAF.
By committing, focusing on war crime against civilians, they lost.
Part of the self defeating nature of Fascism revealed.
By contrast, the NAF focused on getting the job done right. They won.
Unless the Ukranian junta acts quickly, the onset of winter will make it very difficult to launch an offensive.
I suspect chemical weapons and more cluster bombs will be deployed by the Ukranians. It is not impossible they can also use radioactive material. They lose nothing by maximizing their barbarity and may gain their goal of goading Russia into action. If the resistance falls because of the brutality and Russia refuses to intervene this opens an interesting window on the Kremlin and possibly will push Putin into a corner he will not like-he will be seen as a paper tiger. There is no reason for Putin to love the resistance simply because they are ethic Russians. I do not think he would be very happy with a strong independent democratic state on his border as it would shine too strong a light on his country and his anti-democratic policies. This is Kagarlitsky’s position in regards to an independent state of ethnic Russians.
I really hope you are right when you say that Putin has not betrayed Novorossia and that there is a point (given an fascist-ukie attack) when Russia will intervene. But I fear that you may be wrong, that Putin may have sold out Novorossia. Also I disagree when you call people “usefull idiots” because they want an intervention. If there had been an intervention already, we would not have all these deaths in Donbass and we would not have fascists in power in Kiev. In stead we would have a free Novorossia of 8 oblasts/regions. And no, we would not have WW3 either, and the sanctions would be about the same as now. So an intervention will be good for Novorossia and Russia by putting an end to this crisis.
The west will not start a “hot” war against Russia/Novorossia but they have started an “economy” war. The best way to render the sanctions pointless is to take away their aim which is to prevent a free Novorossia – so by creating a free Novorossia of eight oblasts (at least), Russia makes the sanctions meaningless. On top of that Putin gets a regime change in Kiev and can even get a “united Ukraine” of Novorossia and Malorossia!
The war will be economical: I have little hopes for Novorossiya, but the Crimea can and should be a hotbed of economic activity. Zero taxes should be levied on the region with taxes reinstated slowly 1 percent at a time a decade from now. This will cause an economic boom and lead people to a favorable attitude towards Russia in the whole affair.
Novorossia will be a black hole of funds for some time now, but the Central Government signed up for that. These people bled for Putin and must be taken care of.
@anonymous:I fear that you may be wrong, that Putin may have sold out Novorossia.
Look, I understand your fear. I myself have had that fear for months too. But we cannot let our thinking be infected by our fears. If you set your fears aside and think purely logically, you will see that:
1) there is nothing in Putin’s past or present to indicate that he is controlled or manipulated by the West or oligarchs. In contrast – he is their most hated foe.
2) Russia *cannot* afford to sell out Novorussia. There is a clear and public consensus about that in Russia. *Nobody* in Russia advocates that outcome.
3) Putin could heave EASILY sold out Novorussia this Spring. Instead, Russia organized a fantastic counter-offensive (or do you really believe that it could have happened against the will of Russia?!).
4) There are *no* signs that Russia has changed course, for example we know have multiple confirmations that the voentorg is working at full capacity.
As I say over and over and over again – I am not a prophet and not a psychic and I cannot predict what will happen. A betrayal by Putin and Russia is always *possible* – by definition – but “possible” is very very far from “probable”. You and I can fear that a very bad thing can happen, but we cannot allow our fears to overrule our thinking. At this point in time, there is *NO* reason to believe that this will happen. I will continue to repeat that here until I find a logical and fact based reason to say otherwise.
YMMV of course. Cheers,
I think that many in the Ukrainian Govt are quite simply demonic: murder whoever can be killed, regardless, to them it doesn’t matter AT ALL that civilians suffer and die, so long as SOMEBODY does. They have NO humanity, they are simply EVIL & SICK. They cannot be negotiated with, and certainly NEVER trusted, no matter what they ‘promise’.
Does anybody know what aid has been promised to EASTERN Ukraine, what is still to be delivered? And does anyone know if the USA has given ANY aid to the Novorussians?
One wonders if the Junta restricted non-military goods into NAF-controlled territory?
There’s where any siege will be lost or won.
I’m also thinking there is more than just two parties here at work inside Kiev. Obviously, there’s Kiev and “the NAF territories”. But there is also these third party armies that have formed up to fight the NAF as well.
Each of those groups have their own intentions and they do not overlap that much. You’ve got a secessionist group. You’ve got a political clique in Kiev wishing to preserve their prestige and power. Then you have those third party armies that are trying to amass (or maybe even seize) power from both Kiev and NAF territory…
A New Game
The “draw in Russia” card has been played for to long. Expect the unexpected when it comes to Putin – that always works. Russia didn’t have a military option until the Novarussians demonstrated their eagerness to fight for themselves. Now the cards have been dealt for a new round and if I would be in the US position I wouldn’t try the same hand twice.
Russia to has demonstrated to the point of extreme masochism that they like to avoid any war. That was not registered in the US/CIA media but there are other governments who can see that Russia is not a hot-shot like the US.
That means there is a perfect opportunity to strike and I think even the suicidal Ukie-lemmings would not dare to provoke it.
Maximum tension in Novorrosia for a possible offensive of Kiev and the presence of US ships approaching Mariupol. Russia may be moving nuclear weapons to Crimea.
Regardless of any attack plans, with winter coming Donetsk will be needing many more supplies for the civilians, so Russia should be sending many trucks filled with critical aid.
Naturally, Kiev can’t attack while the Russians, and others who might participate, are there since this would absolutely justify sending in Russian forces, even in the eyes of the Europeans and UN, and even with the principle of ‘responsibility to protect’, so that would also keep the peace through the winter.
Hopefully Russia has started to ship arms and winter gear over the border. We all know the neo-conns will not give up and really don’t care how many Ukraine’s die. Sad
Anon 26 October, 2014 18:20
Vlad’s talk the other day at that conference was, as usual, straight, logical, statesmanlike. While the empire media et. al. ignore and denigrate his statements, you can bet the swinehouse strategists have understood the message. He is fed up. Doesn’t need permission. More Europeans every day are catching on, and they are fed up too. And thanks for publishing it, Saker.
Russia will use a few thousand volunteers in plain uniforms where needed, and much more powerful weapons to destroy the Ukie advantage.
There has not been any need for overt intervention. And it won’t happen this time.
Putin is not playing a game of ratchet up intervention.
His commanders on the ground and supervising the militia forces have anything they need to destroy the Ukies and will do so.
The question is will this new offensive if it comes lead to a swift taking of Mariupol?
Putin’s calculus usually makes a culprit pay a much bigger price than they would earlier if they repeat their offense.
An attack on Donetsk will cost the Ukies their best forces, at the minimum. I’m sure the Russian military wants to punish the best Ukie forces and will target them specifically.
And Putin will teach the American war-mongers a stern lesson. Mariupol will be the cost of this new offensive.
That’s how I think any prolonged offensive will evolve. And then we will see the collapse in Kiev, the junta decimated by their own nazis and the US rushing in new leadership monkees to run the show thereafter.
My armchair analysis, worth two cents at most.
At this point i hold fears no longer, Novorossya will prevail and if dear need demands it, Russia will visibly show its support.
Now poro is forming a coalition with privy, it is only a matter of hours for the attack to start.
God will protect Novorossya.
I think Junta is perfectly aware it has no chance in any kind of conventional attack. They are even unable to recapture Donetsk airport with all their availlable firepower. And all oligarchs now (after elections) need their battalions intact and ready to fight in Kiev. So I more than a military attack expect some heinous terroristic act of unprecedented scale (what about GRADs filled by ash from Chernobyle…).
” I began to think of Schmidt as a brilliant but politically hapless Californian tech billionaire who had been exploited by the very US foreign-policy types he had collected to act as translators between himself and official Washington—a West Coast–East Coast illustration of the principal-agent dilemma.35 I was wrong. “
I am very much in agreement with you Saker.
No power wants to expose themselves to actual war by events like this openly, much preferring the ‘hidden’ influence approach. This incidentally applies not just to outright military assistance but also the much more easily hidden and often more important financial support.
In this case Russia knew that it was on a hiding to nothing. Once the seps started fighting back against the UA and especially the right wing fanatics what was Russia to do? Leave them to be slaughtered? Once it said no to that question the US knew that Russia would ‘win’, it had no option. Hence the lack of any real activity by NATO, a bit of gear and cash and some supportive words, the last of which were probably “you are on your own now mate, good luck”. The US may have miscalculated but they are not stupid. Maybe this is why the silence on MH17, if it wasn’t Kiev then exposing it would have led to greater calls for NATO involvement which, given Russia’s position, could have ended up with WW3.
Now we wait for the next step. I too suspect that Kiev is stupid enough to ignore the warnings. If it strikes first and hard the Russians may be portrayed in the Press as defenders.
Russia now knows how far US/NATO are prepared to go, not far, and what sanctions will be imposed, not many options left that will stick. There must be a very strong argument for an almost immediate total response to save lives by stopping any advance in its tracks and rolling the ‘border’ back to the Donbast/Luhansk administrative borders and not a metre more. I am thinking of 1000’s of para/helibourne troops (coming from the North) cutting off all supply lines and going for a ‘panic’ surrender. Only madmen want to face a proper army. What has Russia to lose?
Can you imagine the discussions going on in the RuA/RuAF? There will be lots of units desperate to get stuck in and prove themselves. War is often a career booster for the professional.
If something does happen I feel so sorry for the poor b*st*rds on the front lines.
I am not a military expert, so I have no idea what will happen.
But I know something else: I know which oblasts voted for Yanukovich. And I cannot see most of them in Novorossia. I repeat: everything short of Novorossia in borders from Odessa to Kharkov, including Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, Kherson, Dnieporpetrovsk is a clear defeat for Russia.
We can pretend that it is not like that, but it is.
But, I can accept the argument that it may take a long time before this is achieved.
If Junta attacks now, I think that a minimum of Novorussian victory would be to retake Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, to take Mariupol, and to move into at least one of other oblasts in Novorossia still outside the war.
Isn’t getting too cold to launch an offensive? If the Ukies are planning an attack, then it will probably have to come in the next few weeks or else they will literally freeze to death out in battlefield.
Also, where will the Ukies get the money to launch a new offensive? It is not like fuel, food, munitions and other essentials are in great supply.
Your thoughts would greatly be appreaciated.
Since putin “suggested” the EU or US should pay the gas bill I could see why the junta could decide, on orders of their masters, to attack novorossia to “draw in russia”. I can’t imagine however russia or putin not preparing an unexpected and nasty surprise for their western partners. Even if the plan is to make russia walk into the ukrainian money pit, it can’t be that this goal is unknown to russia. Besides, ukraine(and by that I mean the kiev junta) will still be out of gas if they don’t come to an agreement soon. Another things is that the commanders of the NAF are itching (a few of them have stated this openly more then once) to destroy the JRF and drive on to kiev. My bet is they would probably succeed. I don’t know if this would be the “desired outcome” for some people in moscow but I do see a chance of this happen. In fact, I think the strategy might surprise us and the enemies.
As in Star Trek’s metaphorical language, Tamarian language,
“Darmok and Jalad at Tanagra” – cooperation
“Uzani, his army with fists open” – to lure the enemy towards you by spreading your forces
“Uzani, his army with fists closed” – to close rank and attack after luring the enemy
I have a new phrase for entry:
Putin at Valdai:
“Colleagues, this period of unipolar domination has convincingly demonstrated that having only one power centre does not make global processes more manageable. On the contrary, this kind of unstable construction has shown its inability to fight the real threats such as regional conflicts, terrorism, drug trafficking, religious fanaticism, chauvinism and neo-Nazism. At the same time, it has opened the road wide for inflated national pride, manipulating public opinion and letting the strong bully and suppress the weak.”
I think Putin is a genuine human being, with a moral center and wisdom, and he does indeed want a diverse and multipolar world. The US accusses him, and Russia, of wanting to take over the world and build an empire because that’s what the US and the European imperialist want, and can’t imagine anyone wanting something else. I think when Putin says that a unipolar world (and violence in pursuit of empire) only creates more propblem that he means it — for everyone in the world. That would do much to explain his hesitancy in using force to resolve the Ukrainian issue.
Yet I think he, and Novorossia, also understands the principle expressed by Uzani, above. Both the strategic and political groundwork is laid, and now the choice is up to Kiev and the imperialists: cooperation and peace, or defeat. (See also http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/10/25/vladimir-putin-leader-moral-world-paul-craig-roberts/ ) Putin has given the opportunity to the Kiev and the West to act honorably, as gentlemen. I suspect it would be very foolish on their part to turn that down.
It is interesting to see commentary on a championship chess match in progress, as the masters try to anticipate and understand the moves of the international grandmasters, who are beyond their ken. This is like trying to understand Putin, even while half the ‘chessboard’ is hidden from view, and occurring behind the scenes.
As I’ve mentioned on these comment pages before, I believe the West’s (i.e USA) strategy is to enmesh Russia in a multiplicity of crises, some on her border some far away. As for Ukraine, the intent, as Saker points out, was to provoke a Russian military intervention at the ouset. This would have been disastrous for Russia and ultimately for Novorussia as well.
But Putin is far too smart to have fallen for that. So now I believe the intent is to force Russia to intervene, whether Putin likes to or not. Failing that, at least keep Russia focussed on Ukraine and then attack her in Syria, Iran, the Baltics and the ‘Stans. All at the same time. So we can expect new crisis in some or all these areas very soon.
At the same time the US is also pushing down global oil prices via its Best Freak Friend with Benefits (BFFwB), Saudi Arabia.
The point is to exhaust and demoralize Russia with a sea of troubles (Hamlet anyone?). Its a simple strategy that can easily work. Yet one that takes almost super human ability in leadership to counter. I believe Russia (and importantly China) is currently endowed with that leadership.
But there are no guarantees. The US has the far easier task in neutralizing Russia, than Russia has in defending itself. Much will depend on whether the rest of the world rallies to Russia’s side.
Its a very dangerous time. More dangerous, I believe, that the Cuban missile crisis.
pww: There is one more party at work in Kiev. The kleptomaniacs were so obsessed w their own short-range theivery that sometines ukies fought w/o uniforms, boots, food, or ammunition. Economist Michael Hudson’s narrative of the total corruption I found actually funny.
I have few doubts that JRF will attack. Please remember that they have had two months to rebuild, rearm and train their armies. During that entire time they have shown how trustworthy they are with their relentless bombardments of Donetsk City proper and numerous smaller cities, towns and villages, all these bombardments studiously ignored by OSCE, UN, EU and USA, let alone the much vaunted west media. JRF have been the recepient of supposedly the finest military instructors The West has to offer and I am willing to bet that JRF is also on the receiving end of numerous foreigh volunteers to flesh out their assault units, to wit experienced officers and NCO’s will be leading them. I am not aware of any major rearming of JRF with more modern ‘western’ weapons although the load of Javelin antitank weapons provided by the non existant Canada Armed Forces did not make it in to the intended hands. That being said there is no doubt that Poland and FRG have been very generous to JRF in replacing their combat losses in equipment and ordinance from existing stocks in both countries. They can deny it all they want, although neither Poland nor FRG have denied that fact, but reality is those two countries are the voentorg for the orcs.
I also have few doubts that NAF have not been resting on their laurels and have been training their new soldiers, sarjanti and officers in addition to rearming and up arming. NAF will still be vastly outnumbered and out gunned. I am not aware of the morale situation in the JRF but for NAF the morale is sky high, although I must admit I have not spoken to anyone from NAF for a couple days.
I will not be surprised to see the initial JRF attacks target both Donetsk City and Lugansk City. The artillery prep will be massive, both against the NAF forces and civilians. I feel Donetsk City will be flattened as much as possible, Lugansk will suffer massive bombardment. Tuchka U will fly in constellations as will Grad, Uragan, Smerch and every tube of any calibre the orcs have. Orcs will erupt from the still not completely explored or discovered tunnel systems around and in Donetsk Aerodrome. These will be some of their best fighters and they will fight hard.
I do not know if NAF can hold the upcoming attack. Saker is absolutely correct in that military operations encompass both advance and tactical and strategic withdrawal. Neither is a game changer in and of itself so don’t worry about real estate changing hands from time to time. However, I have no worries what so ever that Novorossiya will fall. Novorossiya will be, period. Mr. Putin has made that very plain in deeds. The citizens of Novorossiya have proven beyond doubt they will fight for their homes and lands. No matter what the orcs or their western masters say or do, Novorossiya will not fall. The price will be high, very high, but Novorossiya has already paid a high price in blood and tragedy. Will VVP send in overt military aid to Novorossiya if needs be? I do not know, I am not privy to the upper echelons of political and military decisions in Russia, but from all indications VVP will not allow the fledgling state to fail. May God bless the soldiers and civilians of Novorossiya in the upcoming fight and grant them victory and freedom.
Reported in Europe: According to preliminary results in the elections, Poroshenko-friendly parties won. Poroshenko and Yats are expected to dominate the Rada. The fascist parties lost support. The Right Sector got around one percent and Lyaschko five-six. Svoboda and Julias party also lost voters. Preliminary results are preliminary results and sometimes unreliable. It will take time to count the votes.
There is a new Christian democratic party Poroshenko may have to rely on to get a majority. It is a EU friendly nationalist party, but it says it will uphold Christian values and common sense and the party wants to clean up the courts.
If the results stand, it is good the fascists were punished, but that is all I can say. What happens, if Poroshenko is strengthened?
Kiev’s latest elections: May the Farce be with you! :)
Darth Vader runs for election in Ukraine
Here’s the YouTube video.
If the junta provoke Russian intervention following a massive imminent attack then Russia may be blamed (and demonised further) for the thousands of previously dead junta forces that have not yet reported. A massive propaganda coup for the nazis and their western sponsors.
Has anybody read the latest article by William Engdahl? It concerns Kerry going to Saudi Arabia and a secret deal for Saudi and America to take control of a $10 billion pipeline deal that is going through Syria, Iran and Iraq. It all links into Ukraine and causing trouble for Russia. Well worth reading:
The Secret Stupid Saudi-US Deal on Syria. Oil Gas Pipeline War
The Kerry-Abdullah Secret Deal… http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-secret-stupid-saudi-us-deal-on-syria/5410130
I bet ten euros that Russia will not intervene, whatever may happen, should even the Ukies tramp all Novorussia underfoot. I take all odds.
This said, if the Ukies come, they will be many, well armed and reasonably trained. What comes through Voentorg will be of little use, if the enemy doesn’t get engulfed in city combat.
Their problem will be morale only. Hope in this and pray hard
re: War now and in Spring. Winter will be no deterrent for the US ..in fact, they will want to gather information on winter wear and tear like they do with the Israeli weapon use in the desert. So military logic has nothing to do with when attacks will happen in the Ukraine. To gain support Poroshenko has to show that he is a winner and thus useful so some sort of showy “gain” will be attempted then a hunkering down until March or April . Putin is playing for time as he must given the large picture. He will not betray SE Ukraine.
@I do not think he would be very happy with a strong independent democratic state on his border as it would shine too strong a light on his country and his anti-democratic policies
The repetition at nauseam of this BS reveals the impossibility of the West to understand the “Rest”. A purely ideological policy made of tired slogans cannot address the real problems and it is therefore extremely dangerous. The West seems to sink deeper and deeper into the delusions of its grandeur.
What was the motivation for this particular extrapolated speculation?
What was the purpose of this particular extrapolated speculation?
Please, Saker, explain again why the US would want to draw Russia into an overt confrontation. I have never understood this reasoning. How would the US government benefit from outright war with Russia? Wouldn’t this just draw in NATO and cost the US large sums of money, money it doesn’t have? And wouldn’t a US-Russia war in Europe spark huge protests among US citizens?
What possible motive could the US have for provoking such a military conflict? The goal can’t simply be to further villify Russia; anti-Russian propaganda isn’t that important. I suspect the West is trying to see how far they can push Putin, fully expecting him to back down over and over again, until he has become a complete buffoon in the eyes of the world. It would be like winning the Cold War a second time. A hefty prize.
No, I believe Novorossiya has to win this on its own. And I believe it can. And will.
Brazil vote tallied. Prayers answered.
After one of the closest, most divisive campaigns in Brazil in decades, Rousseff won 51.6 percent of votes in a runoff against centrist opposition leader Aecio Neves, who won 48.4 percent with more than 99 percent of the votes tallied.- Reuters.
Soros and the Hegemon lose.
Now they will go after her for corruption. But at least the BRICS are held cohesive and Brazil can control its own future.
OK, let’s be honest…
We – Slavic peoples…we are lazy, and do not anticipate much of anything. Dostoyevsky explained it perfectly in ‘The Gambler'(he spoke of Russians, but might as well have spoken of Serbs, Bulgarians, Macedonians or Montenegrin).
Yes, we’re quite deadly in battle, once we’re in full war mode, but are VERY naive until…
I really am interested in (whomever can) answering the question:
What on earth was the FSB doing while the CIA was planning the Ukraine coup (and all the subsequent events)?! I mean – what do they do over at the FSB – watch paint dry all day?!!
C’mon, it’s not as if they needed to invest large sums of money and travel great distances, or needed ‘assets’ that know a foreign language -IT’S bleedin’ Russian-speaking Ukraine FFS!!!
Unless this was the very plan all along, I’m VERY (*very*) disappointed in Kremlin’s strategic thinking!
In-fact I refuse to believe that any team which has Lavrov on board would not anticipate such a move by the Anglo-Zionist ‘Empire’…
I think they could/should’ve known what was going to happen years earlier. As a matter of fact – they did, as was proven by Wikileaks…
Why haven’t they made their moves before all those good people were killed?!
I only hope that they knew all about what was going to happen, and let it happen because they had a bigger picture in front of their eyes.
Because NOW – it’s a zero-sum game!
Russia (and all of us) will either win this, or we’ll die trying! Make no mistake about it – what these people want is for Russia to exist no longer! They will NEVER give up, nor will they ever play fair!
We’re talking about people that have absolutely NO PROBLEM with “ethnic cleansing”, or civilian deaths. It’s mere “collateral damage” to them!
And they would LOVE to see all freedom-loving Russians as such collateral damage.
Again, I hope (know) that heads wiser than mine are at it at the Kremlin. I just hope they didn’t believe their western partners. Because people that did at some point – ended up as collateral damage to ‘Regime chan
With winter coming is Chocula going for a knockout piunch?
How will NYT And Guardian blame the broken ceasefire on Putin?
Q says “..and if I would be in the US position I wouldn’t try the same hand twice. ..” ‘cept they think they have a news hand, too, with the election results giving their guy a mandate. I have ALREADY see it written Poroshenko has “good mandate with 1/3 of the government” (when only 40% turned up to vote ans 23% voted for him, that means he actually got voted by 9.5% of eligible voters.
Well, US might think they can send a few advisers. That won’t make up for sheer lack of willingness to keep fighting. If 10 soldiers desert they can be dealt with. If a whole barracks’ worth goes at once? publicly? two barracks?
As for the actual fighting — I’ve seen here and there, civilians have been advised to move out of the northern parts of Donetsk that will get the increased shelling. The retreats will be honey traps. There most likely will be a feint made on Mariupol ad Kiev might fall for that. “Look shiny shiny”
JRF is likely to go down deep into Debaltselvo again, trying to split the republics. This is far enough east to be cut off from behind, ie “sideways” by fresh vehicles. This would leave JRF with nothing above the Luhansk city line.
Ideally there will be a capture of NATO equipment and mercenaries, early in the piece. This will take off some of the anti-Russia pressure for helping. Nice Leopard tank…here kitty kitty…
“The biggest loss for the Novorussians was the loss of Slaviansk and Kramotorsk which Strelkov attempted to hold as long as possible apparently in the hope of a Russian military intervention, even though he always knew that Slaviansk was indefensible. When it became clear that the Russians would not come, Strelkov did the right thing and pulled his forces out of Slaviansk and into Donetsk.”
I remember you also wrote that Strelkov held out in Slaviansk in order to draw the israeli-American forces to that area so Donetsk and Lugansk would have time to build up a decent military force. In other words, the Novorussians maintained the forward position at Slaviansk to take the heat off the rest of Novorussia while they got better prepared to meet the expected zionazi/nazi attack. Seems to have been a winning strategy since the attacks by the zionazis/nazis since the retreat from Slaviansk have been defeated.
“Finally, there is also a more optimistic possibility: the real reason behind the chorus of warnings about a Ukie attack might be the Russian way of telling them “we know what you are up to and we are ready”. In theory that should deter a Ukie attack. Alas, we need to remember that a) there is no real power in Kiev – all the decisions are taking by the USA and b) the goal of the next attack might not be to win, but to draw Russia into an overt intervention. I personally believe that this was the plan all along and I have been saying that for months: the real goal of the AngloZionists is to force a Russian military intervention in Novorussia while the real goal of the Kremlin is to stay out and keep Novorussia alive by means of voentorg on one hand, and chaos in Banderastan on the other. So far the Kremlin has prevailed. We will probably soon find out if that strategy will work again.”
My hope it’s a warning like that. From a genuine military strategy standpoint, any banderlog attack now is foolhardy, coming right alongside the rasputitsa. No serious military strategist would contemplate such self-buggery.
Not that the Israeli-American scum running these war criminals care about military strategy, though. These sods have all along been running a political scam, rather than a real war of conquest. They are planning their moves, (and sacrificing their stooges) based upon a strategy of what they think will damage Russia geopolitically in the international sphere, and promote “color revolution” internally. Their Ukrainian tools are more than expendable in order to accomplish this. Don’t expect any military logic out of Israel’s bois and grrrrls here, it isn’t the route they are taking.
But expect here, as always, when Israel orchestrates goy vs goy conflict for their own profit and voyeuristic, sadistic pleasure, their quisling scum will do their terrorist upmost to make sure the people suffer as much as possible for ZPC/NWO hegemonic goals.
That’s how the “west” works.
I would like to see Russia with a bit more innocent until proven guilty, a bit more habeus corpus, a bit less disappear if you speak out. And involving psychiatry in the justice system is just so 1950’s, really they need to get with it, will do the nation, the state and the government zero harm to let people talk, and treat them decently even if they are (proven) criminals.
However they’re not going to learn this from Ukraine, for sure.
Winter is not an issue here. It is for someone trying to attack deep int Russia with large formations. It is the time year the earth turns into gooey liquid quicksand, followed by snowdrifts deep enough to bury the vehicles daily.
In Ukraine they’re attacking villages, which all have modern sealed roads running through them. And only have to go at most 100 km in each direction. Footprints show up well in snow. Motor oil will freeze, of course, and gun turrets zeize up, so it’s only good for hand to hand combat.
@anonymous:I fear that you may be wrong, that Putin may have sold out Novorossia.
I’ll put my two cents to explain on how I see the situation. I hope it may help.
To better understand what’s going on in Ukraine first you have to keep in mind the following:
1. Battle is much bigger than just battle for Novorossia
2. It’s is not about proving who is right and who is wrong but is to expose psychopaths and their real nature (the most what psychopaths is arraying is to be exposed)
3. The objective is to take control back for all Ukraine and not just two regions.
Now, think about python. For me this looks like a python in action. Did you ever see how python swallow its pray? This is probably what is and will happen with Ukiland : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVRhRzE_AkQ
Yes, we all agreed that people get killed and the infrastructure gets destroyed, it’s very very sad but this is how pythons are. Here’s another example to understand the real picture think about Putin’s tactics as a judo fighter and how he gets his opponent submission: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkPVKRDH0WM
I do not listen to what politicians or the news says I am just observing what is really happened on the ground…
P.S. and by the way do you remember? “i showed my masterpiece to the grown-ups and asked them if my drawing frightened them. they answered: ‘why should anyone be frightened by a hat?” Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
@What was the purpose of this particular extrapolated speculation?
Putin does not shake in his boots for fear of Pussy Riot as you seem to believe
One good thing about Putin holding off on direct and overt intervention so far is that it may have saved the bacon of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff.
She was re-elected today despite her obvious ties to Vladimir Putin. Putin’s restraint in dealing with the issues in Ukraine no doubt helped with regards to Rousseff’s re-election. ie, The Brazilian media were not able or allowed to demonise Putin and Rousseff’s association with Putin precisely because of his restraint.
The margin of victory to Rousseff was very close.
Rousseff’s re-election means that Brazil, China, South Africa, India, Indonesia and Iran all now have long-term leaderships in place. These are all large countries with a natural affinity with Russia and a certain level of resentment towards US/UK/EU.
The next important election in a country of strategic alliance value to Russia (ie in the G20) is Argentina’s Presidential Election late in 2015.
The re-election of Rousseff give’s Putin something of a freer hand to pursue policies in Russia’s interest more overtly. For instance – at the upcoming APEC & G20 Summits. (China, Russia, USA at both of them).
Important elections in 2015 include Greece (Presidential – February 2015), Finland (April 2015), UK (May 2015), Turkey (June 2015), Argentina (October 2015) & Canada (October 2015).
In regards to a Kiev offensive perhaps being imminent one must consider the factions inside Kiev.
It is indeed possible that Poroshenko is happy to continue the ceasefire indefinitely – particularly if that means some deal can be done with Russia to get the gas flowing again.
It is however, equally likely that other factions inside Kiev want to scupper any deal on gas so as to discredit Poroshenko.
What is the best way to undermine Poroshenko? Launch a new offensive before any gas deal (which means October 26-28).
I would suggest any new offensive may be against Poroshenko’s wishes and may be the idea of people like Yatsenyuk, Lyashko, Vicky Nuland.
While the “election” has Poroshenko and Yats winning.I’m not sure what to make of that.Opinion polls days ago showed Lyashko as the second big winner after Poroshenko.Now it doesn’t.So I think Yats had to be the second winner.The US wants him as PM.And now Poroshenko can made a coalition government keeping Yats and please the US.But again if you can believe the junta figures.There are maps showing that in almost all the voting areas in the Novorossii 8 Oblasts. The vote was in the 30-50 percent range with one at 25% in Odessa Oblast.The 53% total Ukraine vote is very heavy with non-Novorossii numbers.Plus 3 other points.There were many voting violations reported,and spoiled ballots.As well as in the Ukie occupied Donetsk and Lugansk areas.Reports say people were told if you didn’t vote they would be considered traitors.That still didn’t get totals there very high.If there is an offensive and we are able to beat it back and go to a counter offensive.I really do believe there is a lot of latent anti-junta support waiting for liberation from the junta in the Southeast.
I think the Saker shifts unconsciously between ‘Russia’ and ‘Putin.’
The Novorussians responded to Crimea by shouting “Us too! We’re going to hold a referendum. We’re going to apply to join Russia.”
Putin said “NYET!” but the Russian people embraced the uprising in the Donbass and rose in support. I think this was led and fueled by an older generation than Putin’s with different politics, although not all the same politics.
Not every military man in Russia is on active duty. I see many old warhorses pricking their ears at the sound of the bugle.
It would not surprise me if what pitiful few weapons the good guys acquired without shedding blood for them are not still on the inventories of warehouses and went mysteriously missing.
Closing the border was Putin all the way. Ditching Strelkov, by his own admission, was to avoid a mutiny by his officer corps, which is a way of pretending control over a situation that WAS a mutiny by the officer corps, who knew they were ready for an offensive that Strelkov was not competent to command. The four months of training “on the soil of the RF” was not necessarily done by people on the Russian military payroll.
I think the Russian people and the Novorussian people are getting short-changed in your analyses. They have seized the day and forced a reluctant Putin to turn a blind eye. Little more.
Putin, however, has been so utterly clobbered in the propaganda battle he has nothing to lose if he commits now, as a guarantor of Minsk.
He won’t, and I don’t think he should, go all the way to Kiev.
I don’t know the state of partisan units (or any Russian operatives) inside Banderastan.But I’d think if there are any they should be working 24/7 on sabotage of anything they can of military use.I heard about all the aviation fuel shipped in.And I’m sure there are also fuel dumps for the tanks and other military vehicles around.The NAF developed those mortars that stay cool they reported on.Use them on those dumps.No fuel and the war machines can’t run.Also they transport those vehicles many times by train.A train blown up crossing a bridge,or the train just derailed would ruin that expensive weaponry.And as was reported a lot of war material is produced in Kharkov.Firing the plants,or grenades inside the hatches of tanks would also lesson their military weaponry.WW2 showed what resistance forces could do behind enemy lines if let loose to cause havoc.They can’t win the war on their own for the NAF,true.But they can degrade the enemies fighting ability considerably I think.
Been watching this unfold all year. It is sad to say the least, but I see some energies emerge.
1.If the Ukies attack again–I see some ordinance actually hit Kiev–that be the wakeup call. If that happens–then I expect a very large military ship to suddenly sink–seeing US and a nuc problem stateside. da dogs ought to figure what is really important–this seems for keeps–if all the above is ignored-well game on is a mere understatement–leaders in countries like called AZ will probably face major problems–and yeah the police might not be able to handle things. These be tough days–I hope peace can prevail. World turning point.
Think of: Croatia – Operation Storm 1995
Putin will be under increasing pressure at home to silence the guns that are indiscriminately shelling innocent Novorossiyan civilians and civilian infrastructure.
That’s exactly the kind of pressure the west wants to place on Putin: domestic pressure. He has to walk a real tightrope here.
I wish the voentorg included the corvettes, Lutsk and Ternopil, plus a landing craft and a couple of K-29 assault helicopters as Novorussia’s rightful share of the Ukrainian naval assets in Crimea. I am sure that Admiral Berezovsky could put those to good use in taking Mariupol from the sea. I think the NaziGuard would head for the west at full speed, if it ever saw that small fleet approaching.
To those who wonder why the provocation to get Russia to intervene. Recall Condoleeeza Rice explaining why Europe should buy oil and gas from USA. Big war with Russia is not wanted, only enough “disgust” in Europe for complete divorce of Europe and Russia. Putin playing it very cool and wisely.
Julian at 1:06 these are nice points you’re making about Dilma Roussef’s re-election and Putin’s restraint.
Another commenter here has pointed out something similar, to the effect that Russia has shown those nations with ears to hear that Russia is not the hot-head in this game. Having demonstrated this in ample measure, this may some day allow Russia room for rapid and extraordinary action if it’s necessary, without losing any allies around the world. (I don’t think now is that time, by the way.)
Joaquin Flores has a new post, another chapter in his opus about Ukraine and the new 4th-Generation warfare. He puts Russia ahead at the moment, with the US thrown back into 3-G tactics and perhaps even strategies. I haven’t read it fully yet, it’s a long piece.
The Ukrainian Failed State: Analysis of Phase 3
I do find over time that his description of the current war between US and RF in terms of the “simulacrum” is the most convincing of all interpretations of what’s going on. It shows stories from Cassad and about NAF internal discord to be textures painted deliberately to illustrate a false world that doesn’t exist, so as to beguile the enemy. It’s not a point I would broadcast loudly, but I take comfort from it.
Humanitarian aid to the west has been coming in without comment from all neighbouring countries, and at least Canada that has a lot of Ukie immigrants. West is not only out of work, but trying to feed a lot of refugees.
Aid has been coming also to the east, paid for by various organisations, eg Communist Party or special public collections. It is almost totally sure the Donbass area oligarchs have footed the bill for some of this, as well as for some of the voentorg. Akhmetov’s charity was openly credited the other day for something big, I think for the free pharmacy(?). Who owned the huge food warehouse they suddenly discovered just as everyone was getting the hungriest? There is no reason why they should not be allowed to invest in rebuilding the new little states.
BUT those little states are too small. IF, this is a big IF, but if JRF throws everything at the contact line, they are easily surrounded by new forces from behind. This leaves the rest of old Ukraine with nobody t defend it. Might be an easy chance for Kharkiv and Dnepro to take over with minimal loss of blood. That may be enough to get Kiev to proper negotiations where they actually have to GIVE something. Like national referenda for 3 or 4 way federation and a proper “lustration”, ie independent external and timely prosecution of the worst war crimes.
Russia Insider has a great interview with Nikolai Starikov, whom we all like in this forum.
Here’s What Russians Really Think. An Interview With Popular Author and Politician Nikolai Starikov
On the eve of battle for Novorossia, it’s good to hear these words from him, proclaiming that Ukraine and Russia are one thing, the same people, indivisible:
Russians and Ukrainians are one people. 100 years ago there were Great Russians, Little Russians (Ukrainians), and White Russians (Belarussians). These definitions are more appropriate than current designations. It is not offensive to say “Little Russia” because it just means “original,” with Kiev the Russian city from which all of Russia originated.
Therefore, Ukrainians and Russians are the same people with slight cultural, culinary, and linguistic differences.
Being Russian is not just ethnicity but a specific world view. Overall, there are no separate values between Russians and Ukrainians, who, along with other nationalities comprise a big “Russian world”.
I think it’s very important to understand that the major achievement of the US in Ukraine – and the most despicable thing – has been to set brother and sister against brother and sister. NAF doesn’t want to kill the ordinary Ukies, nor do the Ukies want to kill the civilians of Novorossia. Of course, one does what has to be done, and both sides have fangs at their neck.
Joaquin Flores points out that the endgame for Russia is regime change in Kiev. A Russia-friendly, or at least neutral, government in Kiev, with Novorossia in a federation.
I don’t know the legalities well enough to really comment, but I think a federation is still possible whereby Novorossia retains the sovereignty it has seized. This leaves Novorossia free to pursue its destiny (which is no doubt a glorious one), while ALL of Ukraine – except for any malcontents in the west who want to reunite with Poland, etc – continues to live in the greater Russian world.
I will remind myself of all this as the armies fight and I look at the map, begging for it to be redrawn. There is a vastly human and historical, and supremely Russian aspect to this that I have no right to try to shape to my preferences.
Cass, speaking of morale
It is not a good thing for Ukraine if they have to refill the ranks with Polish imports. Imports aren’t not highly motivated. It’s the result of a good part of that million who have fled to Russia being Ukrainian draft dodgers.
Nobody has mentioned the huge riots in Kiev by troops demanding to be demobilized. Similarly, many of the prisoners have cited violations of the terms of their contracts as a reason they surrendered, the “deal breaker” as it were, and one of the defectors said “I took my oath to the people, not the government.”
All the Ukrainian troops have been kept in service long after their term of service was up. And they resent it fiercely. Very capitalist: “A contract is a contract.” How many of these will go back and stick it out when push comes to shove?
All this disaffection will be filtering through the population, and may account for Poroshenko’s support tanking after the riots. He was at pushing 40% not long ago, and “Self Help” was not expected to reach the 5% threshold for seats.
The Communist Party was not banned; the motion was tabled. It’s still alive but delayed. Probably a U.S. thought: “It will prove how democratic you are.” I thought they would boycott after some assassinations as the Party of Regions did. (Maybe they did and the propaganda machine likes to say nobody voted for them without mentioning that none of them were running.)
I think many in the people’s militia expect to die in a major offensive. If they are ready to do so, do we say their morale is low? I see intimations of mortality in Givi. On Zakharchenko: “I will follow him . . . to the end.” To the enemy: “You can kill me, but there are more behind me who will step into my place.”
Myself, I think fatalism is much more dangerous to the enemy than kidding around on down time. I would say morale is high.
I also think nobody appreciates the ability of Kononov. I have been looking into his past, and he is impressive. He obviously has no use for photo ops, but I like that. And he is a local boy; he knows every dip and hollow of the battleground.
Guys, on a global basis, not jeopardizing Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s re-election had to be more important than Novorossiya. Putin has all his global friends to worry about. Now that is settled, it’s next move time.
Moving on Kiev is out of the question. For anybody. But if just 4 oblasts turn independent, and 2 can without much blood, and force a Kiev surrender, it can be owned politically without military attack.
Any referendum or other vote of “where to face” would have to be taken out of hate-speech and into proper voter education
about economics. People like the EU idea because they think (a) overnight they’ll be able to afford a Mercedes (without anyone being jobless and starving) and (b) worse comes to worse they can freely travel to work in a rich country (forgetting that would be for starvation wages on the dirtiest jobs). They need to see Greece, Spain etc.
I think we are shockingly willing to take the Ukraine government’s word on the feelings of the northwest, but there are signs in the voting results that the population is more resistant than we know. There was a heart-warming video of Ukrainian women not just confronting but physically fighting the police in defence of their men being press-ganged into the AFU. The Nazis are once again repudiated by the electorate, but I’m sure they have a Plan B. The war parties have done unexpectedly poorly so far in these elections — we’ll have to take a long look at which individual candidates get elected. It’s looking a bit like a “None of the above” election.
I would not like to see anything intrude into this precarious situation, like blowing power stations, that will negatively impact civilians, but that surely wouldn’t apply to a hangar full of MiG 29s burning down outside of town. It would probably not even be admitted.
Btw, don’t forget this is a military that had no scruples and total air superiority and was defeated with pungi sticks.
New NAF troops, winter gear, all matching. Nobody say there’s no voentorg. Marching like proper soldiers, the about-face a bit uncoordinated but I am sure they spent more time of shooting practice. . Tanks in WINTER CAMOUFLAGE so they’re preparing for winter action.
Why is “moving on Kiev” out of the question? It need not be a military move. The entire atmosphere there could be changed with the removal of a few dozen people. If Kiev can commit widespread murder of civilians why are they immune from a (perhaps black) counterattack?
Read about the Nikolaev underground. Organised. Working. Waiting. I believe there is the same in Kharkiv.
Saker – many of the ukrainian conscripts know that the Kiev junta are evil criminals and they do not want to fight. They know they have been lied to and that the Kiev Junta/ZATO/Nuland/Soros will kill the conscripts and have no regard for their lives.
The soldiers of NovoRussia have more compassion and decency towards these conscripts. They do not want to kill their brothers. The evil is in Kiev with the criminal oligarchs.
Very good sitrep, thanks. I recommend reading latest two articles from Meyssan on the ME, very informative as usual, but curiously he leaves out UK and Jordan from his analyses.
For Ankara, is massacre a policy option?
Geopolitics of the war against Syria and against the Daesh
@ anon “..Why is “moving on Kiev” out of the question?..”
Who is going to do it?
Little green men from Mars might get away with it. “Polite green men” from Russia can NOT, as that would be the invasion EU/US/NATO is looking for to act against Russia. And then they’re stuck with responsibility for running/paying for everything on top of being in WW3.
Novorossiya can’t do it, either. They are not up to running/paying for it and they would be in the WRONG for doing an armed coup. Don’t forget so far they’ve not attacked or taken anything, just defended their own lands. Which don’t extend to Kiev.
But if Kiev makes the first move,and it’s big enough that even the blind MSM can’t ignore that is WAS Kiev which broke the ceasefire….and then a lot of bushes suddenly turn out to be tanks, and NAF fights back, and Kiev forces are hopelessly surrounded….and they have no other forces to stop 2, or 3, or 4 other oblasts suddenly deciding to “go separatist” (bloodlessly as Kiev can’t “punish them) ………then NAF is in the right all the way, Russia is in the clear, Kiev is on its knees pleading to make a deal.
In short, marching on Kiev is out of the question because you need Kiev to have someone to negotiate with, to keep it all legal and above board.
1: all armour parked, conscripts allowed home, volunteer (Nazi) battalions dismantled
2: country split into 3 or maybe 4 federated states, details worked out with public consultation for new constitution
3: all political prisoners released, secret police (interior ministry) disbanded, neutral outsiders asked to do the war crimes investigation.
4: money problem easily solved — the OLIGARCHS will be invited to buy government bonds….or be nationalized. Their choice. Fix it or lose it.
That should get you through winter, a few months to plan the other details.
MIGs are expensive and the new country will need some. Enough to let the tyres down, they don’t have parts or people to fix them. Or remove the starters. Don’t waste all that good fuel, either, just damage the hoses. UAF forces have lost ~700 men this month in accidents from poor safety procedures around fuel. If it’s going to blow, let them do it themselves.
BTW in western areas in past 2 weeks there have been at least a dozen bomb hoaxes, on railway stations, actual trains, and various public buildings. They must go to check each one in case one is real. Now that is excellent sabotage — easy to do from a distance, hard to get caught, messes up the authorities totally.
A few good mines on the main roads and railways into NR areas would be good. Radio controlled, so they themselves can use them safely. Also time they started to shoot down the spy drones, which is how the civilian stuff gets so well targetted.
@ Grieved: the Flores webpage is a single huge freemasonic ad, it fails me how anyone can take anything from there seriously. Especially seeing that they do write lots of obvious nonsense.
My recommendation: avoid that crap.
Ooops lost the link
for Nikolaev resistance statement.
The Secret Stupid Saudi-US Deal on Syria
In 2009 Qatar approached Bashar al-Assad to propose construction of a gas pipeline from Qatar’s north Field through Syria on to Turkey and to the EU. Assad refused, citing Syria’s long friendly relations with Russia and Gazprom. That refusal combined with the Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline agreement in 2011 ignited the full-scale Saudi and Qatari assault on Assad’s power, financing al Qaeda terrorists, recruits of Jihadist fanatics willing to kill Alawite and Shi’ite “infidels” for $100 a month and a Kalishnikov. The Washington neo-conservative warhawks in and around the Obama White House, along with their allies in the right-wing Netanyahu government, were cheering from the bleachers as Syria went up in flames after spring 2011.
Somebody please explain why the Russia/Syria/Iran alliance did not agree/suggest/push for a JOINT gas pipeline project with Saudis/Qatar that would have spared _tens_of_thousands_ of Syrian lives and the country’s vital elements?!
@Saker (19:23): “Look, I understand your fear. I myself have had that fear for months too. But we cannot let our thinking be infected by our fears. If you set your fears aside and think purely logically, you will see that:…”
Putin is obviously playing at many levels. Firstly, the ‘BIG’ picture — he must attend the G20 and lead the BRICS in their quest for a new multi-polar world vision. Any extreme action (or at risk of being framed as such by western msm) which could allow the Australian ‘Poodle in Chief’) to un-invite Putin from the G20 in Brisbane in Nov 2014 must be avoided at all costs — and unfortunately, some of those costs are in the eastern Ukraine.
Secondly, apart for the obnoxious smell rising from the Ukrainian ‘Mafia’ at work, it may suit Putin’s longer-term game plan to indeed follow Nuland’s maxim — i.e., “Fuck the EU!”
Clearly from his published speeches the two key issues are: (a) NATO encroachment east and sovereign security risk; and (b) trade complications in respect to Russian custom’s borders etc.
That aside, he has made it quite clear that even Russia wants to move towards Europe.
I suspect he may be slowly and cautiously achieving all his aims through ensuring:(a)what’s left of the failed state of Ukraine indeed does end up as a screaming un-viable orphan at the EU’s eastern door; (b) once that Ukie Trojan horse is “in” then soft borders will operate (as and when) to Russia’s home advantage; and (c) he gets to the next November 2014 G20 (and the following G20 after that when many of the current players will be ‘retired’ out of the game) as a clear winner and future leader on the global stage against the USA hegemony.
The reason Putin’s actions may appear somewhat ‘strange’ is partly because they are in fact, in contrast with the general mendacious madness passing as ‘governance’ today, entirely quite normal and rational.
is there any info on exactly what NATO /USA has been supplying, the kind of tactics that they ill advising Ukr to employ-a lot more satellite info especially i would think, any lists of the “supplies ” coming from other countries? Would they wait until during or after winter to re-attack , using winter to degrade morale of NAf and local support(who might have emigrated to Russia as refugees anyways-will Rus only intervene on “humanitarian ground’ or potentially more crimes against humanity/war crimes. When will Ukr run out of money to fund war, or by claiming east is still terrorists, perhaps “treasonable’ punishable by death? can they get more funds? Any “provocation” by rus eg supplying arms etc will be pounced upon with glee by USa as an excuse to continue. Is it easier for Ukr forces to go over frozen ground than autumn or spring slush?Easier for NATO to satellite infrared track NAf in winter? Will NAF being getting russ satellite intelligence?Can Rus prosecute for war crimes to forestall any Ukr actions to “level’ the playing field? Is German humanitarian aid continuing to the east-if that stops or war continues while that is happening Ger. might get a bit annoyed…if Kiev attacks whilst Rus h. aid is being delivered, cross border violations….surely Putin will try to get a UN resolution, that MINSK agreement -if Ukr attacks continue even(ballistic proof) is valueless and peoples must be protected, surely the greater prize is VP is for UN to resolve that any military action by UKR/USA/NATO support is illegal …that west ukraine become a protectorate under Germany Poland, and east ukraine under CIS or OSCE in partnership with Rus…Rus could wait until spring but UKr may have retaken back Donetsk airport which seems key.
Marko Antonovic said…
Another great sitrep from the Saker. What stood out in this to me was that Saker says that we should expect the NAF to retreat. That because of shelling. This makes the most sense, and he is right that most people do not understand the difference between the tactic of retreat versus a routing.
Joaquin Flores, in his new report from yesterday has a similar view, for a different reason.
The Ukrainian Failed State: Analysis of Phase 3
He thinks that since the US wants more chaos and destruction, that Russians are doing things to build Poroshenko credibility under some conditions (and not others). He gives a lot of compelling reasons for this. If Poroshenko is seen as losing the coming military actions this week, then putting a new government together with Yatsenyuk will be more hard.
So in conclusion he says that the NAF will have to report some loses and retreats at the hands of the JRF. This makes a lot of sense
Yes, Flores seems to really understand the real game here, and able to describe these things so long as his audience remains small.
I saw his other things on other sites, and he seems to play more by the ‘rules’ there. On Syncretic Studies they seem to let him spill the beans.
Niqnaq, aka Rowan Berkeley, who is banned from here yesterday said that Flores is an FSB agent.
So now that’s Suchan and Niqnaq calling him an agent.
Does anyone else think that could be the case? It doesn’t make sense, if he’s spilling the beans. But then maybe there’s something I am missing ….
Marko Antonovic said…
You must be Rowan/Niqnaq, and therefore a few fries short of a happy meal.
Flores is known here in Serbia, as a member of the Radical Party and campaign adviser to Šarović.
Syncretic Studies is also run by the main interparty liaison for the Radical Party, Tešanović.
Is Šešelj in the Hague because he is a Freemason? Or was it the Freemasons who put him there? Make up your mind!
You think Šešelj, Šarović and Tešanović are just letting Flores infiltrate them with some Masonic conspiracy?
But also you think Flores is an FSB agent, and therefore working for the Lubavitch hassidics?
Maybe you should go ask David Icke to help you clarify. You forgot the part about the reptilians, base on the moon, and the shape-shifting queen of England.
Saker should just block your ISP
@ ProPeace (27 October, 2014 12:18):
Somebody please explain why the Russia/Syria/Iran alliance did not agree/suggest/push for a JOINT gas pipeline project with Saudis/Qatar that would have spared _tens_of_thousands_ of Syrian lives and the country’s vital elements?!
1.) Syria is also allied with Iran, and Iran and Saudi are mortal enemies. There’s no way Saudi and Iran would/could ever collaborate on a Syrian pipeline.
2.) As far as Russia is concerned, a Saudi/Qatari pipeline through Syria into Europe would be a way to make it easier for the EU to embargo Russian oil/gas, threatening Russia with economic collapse.
Kat Kan said…
Read about the Nikolaev underground. Organised. Working. Waiting. I believe there is the same in Kharkiv.
I read that too.And very much hope its right.Neither of those Oblasts voted even 50% in the election.And that doesn’t say “how” they voted.Nor how many spoiled ballots were in those votes.So at the very least I think over half the population dislikes, up to hates, the junta.And probably in some areas there closer to 80%.They are anxious for liberation in Kharkov certainly.And I think in Nikolaev a majority would support it as well.