[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]
Before we look into what just happened in the Ukraine, we need to first recall the sequence of events which lead to the current situation. I will try to make a short summary (skipping a lot of details) in the bullet-point style:
- Whether Ze initially intended to stop the war in the eastern Ukraine we don’t know, but what we do know is that he failed not only to stop it, in many ways his policies were even worse than Poroshenko’s. This might be the well-known phenomenon of a supposedly “pro-peace and happiness” politician being accused of being “weak” and thus not “presidential”; this politician has to show his “strength” is “patriotism”, that is acting recklessly on the external front. We see that from putatively “liberal” politicians such as the Dems in the USA and Labor in Israel. Historically, “liberals” are the most common war initiators. Ze showed his weakness almost from day 1, and the Ukronazis immediately seized this opportunity to engage in a massive multi-level campaign for war against Russia. This resulted in:
- A quasi-official repudiation of the Minsk Agreements and Steinmeier Formula by Kiev, followed by a sharp increase in bellicose statements and, most crucially a large scale move of forces (including tanks, heavy artillery, MLRS and even ballistic missiles!) towards the line of contact. At the same time Ukronazi politicians began making statements saying that a) the Ukrainian army was capable and willing to “liberate” all of the “Russian occupied” Ukrainian land thus, including both the Donbass and Crimea b) that Russia was going to attack the Ukraine anyway and c) that the consolidated West had to help the Ukraine because only the Ukrainian forces were keeping the asiatic drunken Russian hordes from over-running not only the Ukraine, but even the rest of Europe. Since the Ukraine simply has no agency, this begs the question of the US (and, to a lesser degree, the UK) rationale was for these moves. It is quite simple:
- Force Russia to openly intervene to protect the population of the Donbass from the inevitable genocide which the Ukronazis would have meeted out to the population of the LDNR.
How good was this plan? I would argue that it was a very solid plan which, for the USA, meant a win-win situation. Here is how it should have gone:
First, the Ukrainian forces would attack the LDNR, probably along three axes: one between the city of Gorlovka and Donetsk, one frontally attacking Donetsk proper, not to invade the city, but to tie down LDNR forces in protection of their capital, and one in the south with the aim of reaching the Russian border. This way, the LDNR defenders would have to defend their capital while, at the same time, risking envelopment on two axes. Remember that the LDNR has no strategic depth (Donetsk is practically on the frontline) and that the LDNR defenders could not trade space for time.
[Sidebar: I have seen some “experts” saying that since the Ukrainians have laid down a very large number of mines they are clearly not going to attack since they would lose time – and possibly men – to cross these minefields. First, there is no way of knowing if these mines are real or fake (many mines also have a timer anyway) but, second, more crucially: an attacking force always wants to concentrate in one specific location of the line of contact, which means that the attacking forces has to not only attack, but also protect herself from enemy counter-attacks: minefields are very effective at providing this sort of protection. The “defensive” moves can, and do, in reality, form an integral part of any offensive plans]
Of course, The Big Question was this: could the LDNR forces stop the Ukronazis? There are those who say that yes, and those who say no. Rather than suggesting an answer, let’s look at both of these outcomes:
Option 1: the LDNR forces successfully stop the Ukrainian invasion:
That would be, by far, the best outcome for Russia, but for the LDNR this outcome, while better than a defeat, would probably result in a lot of deaths and destruction. We know that both the Ukrainian military and the LDNR forces have been profoundly reformed and restructured since 2014. Crucially, the LDNR forces went from being self-organized and disparate militias to a conventional military force capable of operational level combined arms operations. Would that be enough to stop a larger Ukrainian force? Possibly. But this is by no means certain, not only because war is an unpredictable thing to begin with, but also because we really have no way of knowing how well the Ukrainian military was reformed. If what they got was the same type of “training” as the Georgians in the years leading up to 08.08.08 then there is a good cause to doubt it. LDNR leaders, however, did not engage in bravado and silly flag-waving and they took the threat very seriously, which tells us that they were by no means certain of what might happen next. Now let’s look at option 2:
Option 2: the LDNR defenses eventually collapse in one or even several locations:
What if the LDNR forces failed to stop the Ukrainians? At this point, Russia would have absolutely no choice but to intervene to save the people of the Donbass (more than half a million of which already have Russian passports!). I won’t discuss here the options a LDNR+Russia counter-attack would have or how much Ukronazi-occupied land Russia could or should liberate (that is not the topic here). In this case, two things are absolutely certain:
- Russia would comprehensively defeat any combination of Ukrainian forces.
- The US/NATO would declare a state of quasi war with Russia and create something similar to the Berlin Wall along whatever line of contact would result from a Russian counter-attack.
In this scenario, the biggest loser would, of course, be the Ukraine. But the next loser would be Russia, because instead of “just” dealing with a nutcase Nazi regime next door, Russia would now face a hysterically paranoid and russophobic consolidated West. At the end of such a war, Russia would face something similar to what happened at the end of the Korean war: a ceasefire followed by decades of tensions.
The big winner would be the USA: its main instrument for the colonization of Europe (NATO) would finally find itself a purpose in life (stop the Russians, of course), NS2 and other cooperation between the EU and Russia would all but totally freeze, making the European economy non-competitive against the US, and the US MIC would have a great time selling very expensive, if not very effective, military hardware to all the European countries. And that strategic US victory would not cost the US a single soldier! What’s there not to like about this?
Well, for Russia this would be a very bad outcome. Yes, Russia has the means to take on both the US and NATO militarily, but politically and economically, this would hurt Russian interests, not critically, but substantially.
Then, there is this: the Ukraine is a thoroughly deindustrialized failed state, worse than many African countries. While there was a lot of window-dressing going on both inside the Ukraine and in the West’s legacy media, the COVID pandemic and its horrible consequences inside the Ukraine became impossible to conceal or deny, especially to the Ukrainian people themselves. Right now, the entire Ukraine is like a vase in a store: if you break it, you own it and you must fix it. Even if we exclude an outcome where the Russian tanks stop at the western borders of the Ukraine and take a middle-of-the-road option where the Russians stop at the Dnieper river, this would have huge consequences for the Russians, including:
- The frontline between the Ukronazis and the LDNR+Russian forces would be massively stretched becoming much longer, yet every kilometer of that line of contact would have to be protected. This begs the question: protected by whom?
- The Russian side would suddenly inherit several large cities (Chernigov, Kharkov, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhia, Mariupol, Berdiansk, etc.). Not only would the Russians have to clear these cities from Ukrainian insurgents and stay-behind forces, but Russia would also have to rebuild them and feed a population much larger than the current population of the LDNR.
- The Russian economy simply cannot bear the burden of what is currently a Nazi run Ukraine which has turned into a massive black hole sucking in huge ressoures and never letting anything leave (except emigrating Ukrainians). At best, Russia is currently investing billions of rubles to rebuild Crimea (which the Nazis always hated and neglected – except to build themselves mansions on the Black Sea) while barely keeping the LDNR afloat.
It is the consolidated West (US+UK+EU) which destroyed the Ukraine, and the Russians will capitalize on this by making the West responsible for fixing what it broke, and that won’t happen since the EU does not have the means to do it right now while the USA is not directly threatened by this situation and thus has no reasons to intervene beyond making sure that the regime in Kiev remains a) rabidly anti-Russian and b) totally under the control of the USA.
Thus, neither option 1 nor option 2 were desirable for Russia. So Putin created option three.
Putin’s option 3:
In response to the seemingly unstoppable escalation towards war was something nobody in the West expected: Putin used the pretext of regularly scheduled military exercises to quickly and dramatically increase the Russian capabilities near the Ukraine: Russia moved two Armies (58th and 41st) and three Airborne Divisions (7th, 76th and 98th) towards Russia’s western regions (including Crimea). The Russians also moved almost their entire Caspian Flotilla into the Black Sea. More Russian warships entered the Black Sea through the Bosphorus. Next, all six advanced 636.3 type diesel-electric submarines (possibly the quietest on the planet, at normal cruising speed they produce less noise than the surrounding environment, turning them into acoustic black holes) went on patrol. Finally, Russia deployed her coastal defense missile systems Bal and Bastion, turning the entire Black Sea into a Russian shooting range). And, crucially, Russia did all that very publicly, in broad daylight, officially announcing her military moves and not even bothering with any type of camouflage or deception.
To those ignorant of military realities this looked like Russia was “threatening the Ukraine”. This is absolute nonsense. All Russia needs to do to threaten the Ukraine is to remind the Ukrainians that Russian long range weapons are enough to obliterate the Ukrainian military and that Russia can use these standoff weapons without moving any forces at all. No, the real object of these Russian moves was not the Ukraine, but the West itself, especially any western force crazy enough to decide to enter the war and militarily help the Ukraine. Why? Here again, I will offer my view of how this situation might have evolved:
- First, the Ukrainians attack the LDNR. LDNR forces take the initial blow and try to contain the Ukrainian advance.
- The Russians declare a no-fly zone over the area of operations and strikes the advancing Ukrainian forces with her formidable firepower. The outcome here is not in doubt.
- NATO+EU nations decide to intervene, say by sending several Polish battalions into the Ukraine. US+UK forces conduct reconnaissance operations by flying near (or even over) the line of contact and by sending special forces. After a few warnings (or not), the Russians decide to shoot down one of these intelligence aircraft or drones. The West decides to “show solidarity” by engaging in cyber-attacks against Russia, imposing even more sanctions and by airlifting even more forces into the Western Ukraine.
At this point, the US+NATO+EU and Russia would be at the brink of a major war. But here is the crucial thing: by moving two armies and three airborne divisions (a huge force, way bigger and more capable than any combo of NATO forces!) so quickly, Russia proved to NATO that she can quickly achieve a huge numerical advantage anywhere any NATO force might decide to attack. Conversely, no NATO nation has the ability to concentrate its conventional forces so quickly and on any point along the frontline.
[Sidebar: comparing force sizes is engaging in “bean counting” and is useless. It really does not matter very much how big a force is, what matters is the force ratios along key sectors of the FEBA or the front (assuming there is a “front”, which sometimes does not really exist) and at a specific moment in time.]
Also, keep in mind that, unlike most western airborne forces, Russian airborne forces are fully mechanized, they even have some tanks, plenty of armored vehicles, their own artillery and an ability to move very very quickly (remember the Rusbat in Bosnia going to Pristina almost overnight?). Western airborne forces are attack forces designed to enforce the western imperial hegemony worldwide, so they have to be much lighter. The Russians have no need to send airborne forces across the border, they need them to defend Russia and to be deployed within less than about 1000km from the main Russian forces. Thus, Russia “sacrificed” their strategic mobility of her airborne forces to give them a tactical and operational mobility and firepower which western airborne forces can’t even dream about. So what could these three divisions do in the context of a Ukrainian attack?
Well, they could do what they are mostly designed to do, deploy behind enemy lines, destroy (or hold) strategic targets (like bridges, power stations, missile bases, etc.) hold some strategic location or present a threat from the rear to the Ukrainians. But that overlooks the major reform the Russian AB forces have undergone. They are also really high mobility and high readiness forces which, for example, could be deployed to protect the Russian peacekeeping force in Transnistria (such a move would also be protected by the long range fire capabilities of both the Black Sea Fleet and the Russian Aerospace Forces). Russian AB units could also be deployed in the Ukrainian rear to create chaos and disrupt the Ukrainian supply lines. Finally, any Polish force threatening to intervene could be quickly attacked and destroyed. Again, that would enrage the Western politicians, and it is at this moment that the Russians could move her armies across the border to show that any combo of western forces would be annihilated. This would leave the West only two options: fold or go nuclear. And going nuclear does not seem to be an option the West wants to exercise, hence folding would be the only viable option. So far (things might change in the future, who knows how crazy NATO can act?).
Finally, Putin spoke directly to the West in his speech before the Federal Assembly when he said:
The meaning and purpose of Russia’s policy in the international arena – I will just say a few words about this to conclude my address – is to ensure peace and security for the well-being of our citizens, for the stable development of our country. Russia certainly has its own interests we defend and will continue to defend within the framework of international law, as all other states do. And if someone refuses to understand this obvious thing or does not want to conduct a dialogue and chooses a selfish and arrogant tone with us, Russia will always find a way to defend its stance.
At the same time, unfortunately, everyone in the world seems to be used to the practice of politically motivated, illegal economic sanctions and to certain actors’ brutal attempts to impose their will on others by force. But today, this practice is degenerating into something even more dangerous – I am referring to the recently exposed direct interference in Belarus in an attempt to orchestrate a coup d’état and assassinate the President of that country. At the same time, it is typical that even such flagrant actions have not been condemned by the so-called collective West. Nobody seemed to notice. Everyone pretends nothing is happening.
But listen, you can think whatever you like of, say, Ukrainian President [Viktor] Yanukovych or [Nicolas] Maduro in Venezuela. I repeat, you can like or dislike them, including Yanukovych who almost got killed, too, and removed from power via an armed coup. You can have your own opinion of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko’s policy. But the practice of staging coups d’état and planning political assassinations, including those of high-ranking officials – well, this goes too far. This is beyond any limits.
Suffice it to mention the admission made by the detained participants in the conspiracy about a planned siege of Minsk, including plans to block the city infrastructure and communications, and a complete shutdown of the entire power system in the capital of Belarus! This actually means they were preparing a massive cyberattack. What else could it be? You know, you cannot just do it all with one switch.
Clearly, there is a reason why our Western colleagues have been stubbornly rejecting Russia’s numerous proposals to establish an international dialogue on information and cyber security. We have come up with these proposals many times. They avoid even discussing this matter.
What if there had been a real attempt at a coup d’état in Belarus? After all, this was the ultimate goal. How many people would have been hurt? What would have become of Belarus? Nobody is thinking about this.
Just as no one was thinking about the future of Ukraine during the coup in that country.
All the while, unfriendly moves towards Russia have also continued unabated. Some countries have taken up an unseemly routine where they pick on Russia for any reason, most often, for no reason at all. It is some kind of new sport of who shouts the loudest.
In this regard, we behave in an extremely restrained manner, I would even say, modestly, and I am saying this without irony. Often, we prefer not to respond at all, not just to unfriendly moves, but even to outright rudeness. We want to maintain good relations with everyone who participates in the international dialogue. But we see what is happening in real life. As I said, every now and then they are picking on Russia, for no reason. And of course, all sorts of petty Tabaquis are running around them like Tabaqui ran around Shere Khan – everything is like in Kipling’s book – howling along in order to make their sovereign happy. Kipling was a great writer.
We really want to maintain good relations with all those engaged in international communication, including, by the way, those with whom we have not been getting along lately, to put it mildly. We really do not want to burn bridges. But if someone mistakes our good intentions for indifference or weakness and intends to burn or even blow up these bridges, they must know that Russia’s response will be asymmetrical, swift and tough.
Those behind provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret what they have done in a way they have not regretted anything for a long time.
Putin very very rarely threatens, but when he does, people listen because they understand that his warnings are never a bluff and that when he promises something he has the means to realize his threat (in this case, 2 Combined Arms Armies and 3 Airborne Divisions, all backed by Russian long range and hypersonic weapons and, if all else fails, by the most modern and robust nuclear triad on the planet). As for what would be a Russian “red line”, Putin decided to deliberately leave this point ambiguous only saying that “I just have to make it clear, we have enough patience, responsibility, professionalism, self-confidence and certainty in our cause, as well as common sense, when making a decision of any kind. But I hope that no one will think about crossing the “red line” with regard to Russia. We ourselves will determine in each specific case where it will be drawn.” The point of this strategic ambiguity is to leave the West guessing when it is safe to make a move and when not. This very simply maximizes the deterrent effect of the rest of his speech.
And, today, the Russians have “clarified” that the Kerch strait is not closed to traffic, not even Ukrainian traffic. “All” that Russia did was to declare some exclusion zones for military exercise purposes, but traffic under the Crimean Bridge remains open. Right. And how long will it take Russia to (truly) re-close that strait? Minutes. This unspoken threat is primarily a threat to the Ukrainians, showing them how easy it would be for Russia to sever their lines of communications should they threaten Russia.
Yes, Putin did win this round quite elegantly, without a single Russian soldier dying. But the problem is that this undeniable Russian success really solves nothing. All the causes which led the Ukronazi regime to bring the entire region to the edge of the abyss are still present. Inside the Ukraine nothing has changed and, if anything, things are even worse: total censorships of opposition TV channels, political persecutions (including torture and kidnappings), the same warlike rhetoric. The economy in in shambles and Ukrainians are emigrating by the millions (both to Russia and to the EU), the Nazi deathsquads continue to enjoy total impunity, and, of course, the total COVID catastrophe (the West gives the Ukies lethal weapons to use against Russian, but no vaccine, and way more people are dying from COVID in the Ukraine than are dying at the frontlines! These are “European” and “Western” “values” at work…)
Sure, it does appear that a combination of European reservations and the risk of the members of the ruling elite in Kiev to be physically eliminated by Russian strikes, possibly combined with a realization by the “Biden” Administration that a total blow-up in the Ukraine would strain US-European relations (there will be plenty of blame to go around) resulted in the current perceived deescalation.
Sadly, and in spite of the current reprieve, some kind of war between Russia and the Ukraine is still probably inevitable. Right now, the bulk of the Russian forces are returning to their normal areas of deployment, with, probably, some staying. We can also be sure that the Russians will have a major after action review to find out what went wrong and what needs to be changed. As a result, next time around, the Russians will move their forces even faster.
But what about the US, it’s NATO proxies and the Ukronazi regime?
The US is still scrambling to try to retake control of an international situation which has clearly gone totally out of hand for the wannabe world Hegemon. Even more importantly, the internal situation of the USA is truly critical with many very serious crises occurring simultaneously. Yes, there is also a lot of window-dressing in the US media, but most people see and know what is really going on. Which means that the US is as weak as it is unstable. Finally, judging by the low intellectual abilities of US decision makers, we should always expect something silly or even dangerous, or both, from this Administration for and by Woke-freaks (especially since “diversity” has now completely replaced “competence”).
NATO and the EU are in a bind. While some countries go “totally insane” (the Czech Republic and the usual 3B+PU) others are desperately trying to keep things together (Germany). As for the regime in Kiev, it is barely holding on to power and has no other options left than doubling down over and over and over again. Crucially, the junta in Kiev will continue to blame Russia for absolutely everything and anything (about 99% of what the Ukie political class does nowadays is hate on Russia and threaten to defeat Russia militarily).
None of that qualifies as “peace” in any meaningful sense of the word (people die everyday, almost all of them civilians). Worst of all, the same causes can only lead to the same outcomes, and there is very little anybody can do to change this. Thus, at best, what we are seeing is only a reprieve. But as long as a gang of Neo-Nazi thugs continues to hold power in Kiev, war will be a quasi inevitability. True peace will only come when the Ukronazis are either dead, or jailed or back in Canada. Until then there shall be no peace, only degrees of war.
All true, Andrei. This is an excellent summation of the situation.
Lamentably, war does look more likely than not. I agree.
We are at a historical inflection point.
We’ll know soon enough what the failing, would be hegemon does. Biden will soon be shuffled off of center stage and Kamala Harris will take over.
Of course, she/it is also merely a pawn in the hands of shadowy power brokers, as is Biden.
Will the (largely) unseen power brokers go for broke, and ramp up a large military confrontation with Russia? It’s always possible.
We truly don’t know all the elements of their geopolitical calculus, or exactly who or what they are, or even to what ultimate extents they are prepared to act.
Some chinese military analyst said (on some talk show)
the rus did the massive demonstration of power/force
first to the Ukies, then to Nato, finally to USSA – msg sent
and on their ‘retreat’ – they say yes the rus boys left
… but they left all the toys behind
… and many are still hot…
If I were putin’s target, I just thank god I got a second chance (to run away like hell)
The implication subtle msg here is beyond chiling… (as I read)
but its just another chinese talk show
be well be safe
True. It seems that the allegedly deescalating Russians left a lot of heavy weaponry and war materiel at the ready. The Russian military remains at a high state of readiness.
It’s hard to know precisely who is in charge of policy in the USSA these days. Clearly not Joe Biden, clearly not the Congress, clearly not the judiciary.
Who ** precisely ** is telling the Pentagon what to do? It’s not clear.
What is clear is that the formal, Constitutional government in Washington, DC has fallen. The Kremlin understands this salient fact.
What happens next remains to be seen.
“ Who ** precisely ** is telling the Pentagon what to do? It’s not clear.”
Yes I think this a question the Russian military would ask their Pentagon counterparts in any conversations they might have. Partly as psychological warfare, but partly as a genuine question in order to ensure MAD is effective.
Because if the Russians conclude that whoever is genuinely in charge is truly senile, or truly insane, all bets are off.
No one claims to be in charge b/c no one wants to get their name on a litigation notice and have to defend the beliefs of this administration.
Who ** precisely ** is telling the Pentagon what to do?
@ French Bloke
It’s not as simple as that. The Mossad is but one faction of many.
Besides, who or what is behind the Mossad? The onion always has another layer.
But they are the oil that lubricates the machinery on behalf of the Rothschilds and coordinate most of what happens within the deep state. They provide many logistics and other services no doubt to the likes of Gates/Soros et al. Without them the Pentagon would have only a fraction of its objectives as there would be no need for them on such a scale. Sadly, I find it difficult to not give them too much credit although the alphabet agencies appear to willingly prostitute themselves to them as a result of decades of infiltration.
To Richard Sauder
Richard, please understand that there is no-one in charge, but everyone is! By everyone I mean every sod.ing, so-called “intelligence” set-up that are each pushing their own boats and everyone else that has some stake in this. This is what the USA is now amounts to.. So, who is formulating the USA foreign policy? Take your pick!
Your Constitution has been shredded long time ago, unfortunately most Americans cannot see that yet. They are still hanging on to some ideals and common sense that was imbued in that Constitution. Sad, deluded people..
They still cannot conceive or face the reality – you, as a country, have been taken over while meantime you were entertained by the Hollywood! Your media, your educational system, your government – ALL of that has been taken over. And what you are seeing now is the result of that.
Yes, Katerina. In no particular order, the list of (not so) hidden hands stirring the pot that is the USSA would include, but not be limited to:
1. 33rd degree Freemasonry (ever since the 1770s)
2. Jesuits (Georgetown University et al.)
3. Big Money (Federal Reserve + Wall Street + Big Banks)
4. Fortune 1000 companies
5. East Coast bloodline (blue blood) families since the 1600s
6. Military-Industrial-Intelligence Complex
7. Christian Zionists / Christian Dominionists
8. Third Reich / NAZI elements ever since Operation Paperclip
9. The authorities controlling the underground / undersea bases
10. Big Data (Silicon Valley + NSA)
11. Artificial Intelligence (A.I. — the 800 lb gorilla in the room)
12. Undisclosed off-world alliances, operations and accords
13. The $23 trillion (at least) Pentagon Black Budget that Catherine Austin Fitts has documented. Who is in charge of all of that money and what are they doing with it? I don’t know with any specificity and you don’t either. Why doesn’t the Saker interview Catherine Austin Fitts on that topic?
And you can add to the list. I do not pretend that it is complete.
In brief, I assume that the center of the USSA cannot hold, because there is no center! The whole shebang is going down, and hard. The only question is exactly how hard, how chaotic and how fast its fall / collapse will be.
Not to worry! This affair will not take ten more years to play out, and maybe not even five. The defining end game quickly approaches.
Thanks for your insights –looking at this list (which is complete enough) , it reminds me of a situation where a Marine Corp commander (in Korea?) realized that his unit was completely hopelessly surrounded. He commented acidly that “this actually makes our situation easier” ! hmmm…..the thing that links all of them together is the love of money.
That’s a good list Richard, but you have left out “the elephant in the room” – Khazarian Zionists, i.e. zhids.
Alright. Add them to the list. You’ll get no argument from me.
‘Alright. Add them to the list.’
Katerina shouldn’t have had to remind you, Richard. Seriously, WTH?!
Just to reinforce your point further >
The Lawyer lobby groups on K Street are major influencers…
Then there are the 1000 or do industrial corp heads who attended the Bohemian Grove events organised by GHW Bush in a direct copy of Himmlers Masonic Ritual indoctrination. No idea if this is still a topic today.but the corp heads certainly keep in touch with each other.and promote and fund destabilisation agendas.
Remember how gleefully Richard Branson also jumped at the chance to destabilise Maduros government….
Worth adding that the State Department employs proxy assets in war theaters that have been known to fight CIA backed proxies in the same theatre.
Lavrov at one time was frustrated by the lack of direction since the State Dept / Pentagon / CIA / White House each promoted different agendas…and John Kerry made light of this factor, quipping that this was a ‘deliberate attempt to confuse’.
Just to reinforce your point further >
Papa Shrub was a m0ssad agent who controlled the WH for 28 years. He was the real mastermind of the 2001 event. His story goes all the way back to the JFK event. JFK was opposed to providing nuclear warfare technology to lsrael.
RE: Richard Sauder on April 26, 2021 · at 9:54 am EST/EDT
“..end game quickly approaches.”
Perception including framing conditions outcomes including velocities and trajectories, whilst attempts to conflate moments in lateral processes with lateral processes render those immersed in such conflations “spectators” pondering “What just happened in Ukraine ?”
The “spectatorship”‘s half-life and the half-lives of “interpretations” that “spectators” derive through spectating, are often further extended by spectator’s resort to belief to bridge doubt, including belief in short evaluation horizons.
Hence no “end game ever approaches” merely the belief/hope that “the end game” exists “somewhere over the rainbow” and “maybe this time I’ll be lucky” sometimes refered to as waiting for Godot in hope of “maybe this time he’ll stay”, or being enmazed in win/lose binaries thereby perceiving “victories” and “defeats” as absolutes.
Wise practitioners although not omniscient, are guided by the undertanding of some opportunities afforded by opponents’ immersion in a fantasy land whilst wise practitioners are not so immersed as a function of not being prone to either “we the people hold these truths to be self-evident” or that “every soldier carries a Marshall’s baton in her/his knapsack”.
Other than size/scale, does that make it any different to allof the European statelet ZOG’s?
@ French Bloke
Yes. Sometimes size matters.
What happens next is already in the making – Do you think Biden’s recognition of the Armenian genocide is in the Interest of Armenia? You better think twice – it’s to stoke up tensions between Armenia (Russia’s
ally) and Turkey again and what will happens in a military conflict between both? Remember there are Russian peace troops already in Nagorno Karabakh – Turkey Is just another bait and much more of a threat to Russia than Ukraine – meanwhile Ukraine will keep on provoking – wonder when things going to heat up in Syria again – well we all know where it’s leading to !
Catherine Austin Fitts and Joseph Farrell both state that “who?” is the $64K question. JF just posted an article on his blog this morning about another state in the US exploring a bullion depository – first Texas, now Tennessee. There could be others, I don’t know. Check out his blog for his speculations (gizadeathstar.com) as I’ve heard both CAF and JF often frequently mention their high regard for the Saker blog, which is how I discovered it. The step towards sound money alternatives to the Fed dollar is necessary and has far-reaching implications. The next 5-10 years is going to get pretty wooly.
The first step to understand which people/factions control war and foreign policy is to tap NYTimes, WAPO, MSNBC, and CNN staff. Someone gave the outlets the hoax about Russian bounties to prevent troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Start with people like that and look at associations. The factions which can control the narrative will be the ones in charge. One thing is certain; the Oval Office lost all control under Obama when the Pentagon refused to go along with the ceasefire set up by Kerry and Russians in Syria.
Rothschild’s City of London
You are correct. Rothschild = Roth + Schild, or Red Shield.
In the City of London and in the entrances to the City of London are 13 statues of dragons, some with large shields overtly emblazoned with red crosses. You can easily find photos of these dragon statues on the Internet, using your preferred search engine.
There is a large dragon statue in front of “Temple” Bar in the City of London, for instance. You figure out whose “Temple” it is, and what or whom is worshiped in that “Temple.”
The City of London is transparently, overtly, in-your-face, staked out as dragon’s territory; presumably that of the Great Dragon of Old mentioned in ancient writings, who is said by many to be the fallen ruler of this world. Who knows what lies underground beneath the City of London, out of sight?
All of this goes back thousands of years. In Roman imperial times, for centuries the precise block of urban real estate which is now known as the City of London, or the so-called “Square Mile,” was a one-square mile, Imperial Roman, economic, military and political administrative center, known as “Londinium,” whence the modern name, City of London.
So when it comes to the City of London (not to be confused with the sprawling, much larger, conurbation of London), it is a truly ancient power center in this world, going back at least two thousand years.
As the French say: “The more things change, the more they remain the same.”
A lot of good things came out of this.
First: it confirms that any conventional attack on Russia by any combination of the US plus Europeans is a wet dream. As an aside, for those who say that nuclear is inevitable therefore, it should be considered that Russia has by far the most advances missile defences; she also has by far the most advanced offensive missiles – and this gap (in reality massive gulf) will not realistically close. It is indisputable that Russia can totally obliterate the US which has no defences worth speaking of. The reverse is not the case.
Second: its also drove a large wedge between the Europeans and the US+NATO. The Germans and the French were definitely not up for any form of kinetic confrontation.
Third: it underlined the Minsk process as the only way forward – which given Ukrainian opposite means it a stalemate for the foreseeable future.
Finally, it will not be lost on some countries still capable of rational thought (Germany primarily) that Russia has handled this with comsumate skill, underscoring that the future lies to the East.
Thus, the outcome of all this is the almost certain failure and disintegration of Ukraine, likely accelerated once NS2 comes online and Ukraine looses 18% of its GDP, at which point the rebuilding can begin.
All in all, this is a rather good outcome for Russia, and in the longer term Ukraine.
“and in the longer term Ukraine.”
You have managed to attain a wider vision than most “commentaters”, but perhaps a more illuminating phrase would read:
“and in the longer term the world, through transcendence of coercive social relations by social relations based on cooperation, facilitated by practices of from each according to her/his abilities, to each according to her/his needs.”.
Magda that is exact what buddhist teachings realize that whoever realy want help …
essa é a definição de períodos de paz ,ciclos de harmonia
porque afinal,vivemos em ciclos,passageiros que somos deste sistema
Yandex translate. Mod:
this is the definition of periods of peace, cycles of harmony
because after all, we live in cycles, passengers that we are of this system.
@cdvision You are mistaken on one crucial point. Russia does not have an effective nation-wide anti-ICBM or anti-IRBM defense. No country can really defend against these big fast missiles, unless they are attacked during the early “boost” stage before they start to go fast, and for every country, those launch points are too far away to make the missiles vulnerable.
Anti-missile defense against ballistic missiles is still a fantasy, although ithis fable is fabulously profitable for the American MIC. Consider the success rate of the relatively low-tech and slow-moving missiles coming out of Yemen, trying to penetrate America’s best defense systems in Saudi Arabia. Half or a third reach their target. I don’t have exact numbers, but Yemen’s ballistic missiles don’t reach anywhere near 12,000 mph like an ICBM. There should be no need to mention that even a 2/3 defense rate against nuclear weapons is not worth anything, especially with MIRV’s which are now on most ICBM’s. 4 MIRV’s on a single ICBM x 2/3 is still more than one destroyed city per missile. So really, it’s MAD and that’s not going to change in the next few decades, as long as Russia and China keep their guard up.
undoubtedly you read about the new antimissile launchers announced today on tass. how do you think they’ll play in this scenario?
I suppose you are referring to https://tass.com/defense/1282957That missile flies at Mach 10 but real missile defense needs more than that. The hardest part of defense is to locate the target against a field of decoys, and with high precision because the incoming warhead is small. If the interceptor has extremely high acceleration along with high speed, then in theory the defense can wait for the decoys to reveal themselves because they are lighter than the real warheads, and their speed decays on re-entry. So the real warhead would be targeted and destroyed around 15 to 25 km high. This is a “last ditch defense” with no time left for a closer line of defense. The larger defects of any anti-missile defense is that they can only defend a relatively small area, and these systems are too expensive to be widely deployed. Very few areas could justify such an expense. More likely, in my opinion, is that the Russians are working on high acceleration and mach 10 missiles for defense against conventional warheads. Some “maskirovka” is practiced by most modern armies, and that includes judo-like moves which help the other side to waste money on useless systems.
In general, the Russians made a strategic call many years ago that MAD was far cheaper and more reliable than strategic missile defense. Reagan’s “Star Wars” defense was intended to just be an exercise in wasting US money on Reagan’s backers, and perhaps it scared some of the Soviet leaders into thinking soft-in-the-head Gorbachev was not such a bad leader. So perhaps, sadly, Washington might have gotten some benefit from Star Wars in the 1980’s.
RE: Cosimo on April 28, 2021 · at 11:44 pm EST/EDT
“So perhaps, sadly, Washington might have gotten some benefit from Star Wars in the 1980’s.”
Evaluation is a function of purpose and evaluation horizons.
“Reagan’s “Star Wars” defense was intended to just be an exercise in wasting US money on Reagan’s backers”
It was also an attempt to
1. Obscure from the target audience updated information in relation to MAD including the catalyst loads to facilitate nuclear winter.
2. Prepare an excuse for reducing future orders for strategic nuclear missiles and emphasise “a different/more modern solution”.
3. Prepare private negotiations for “strategic arms agreements”
4. Prepare further examples of “Morning in America”.
All predicated on Mr. Reagan and some of his advisors being scared of updated information in respect of MAD, and Mr. Reagan being proficient in many aspects of salesmanship.
Some “Soviet leaders” were also afraid of updated information in respect of MAD, whilst some others understood this vindicated the wisdom of “the Russians made a strategic call many years ago that MAD was far cheaper and more reliable than strategic missile defense.”
Criticism of “Star Wars” by some encouraged motivations and efforts to undermine “The Soviet Union” which in turn facilitated the complicity of “The United States of America” in the ongoing lateral process of transcendence of “The Soviet Union” by the Russian Federation, which some understood in the 1980’s to be an addition factor with potential to accelerate the demise of “The Soviet Union” as understood from 1969 onwards.
“”So perhaps, sadly, Washington might have gotten some benefit from Star Wars in the 1980’s.”
“Evaluation is a function of purpose and evaluation horizons.”
So using an evaluation horizon from say 1980 to 2020 using various interpretations of purpose, in what ways did “Washington might have gotten some benefit from Star Wars in the 1980’s.” ?
in what ways did “Washington might have gotten some benefit from Star Wars in the 1980’s.” ?
I thought I was clear: Star Wars put pressure on the Soviet leaders to prefer Gorbachov and glasnost, because
(1) even if the first version of Star Wars was a fraud, subsequent versions might not be, and
(2) the Soviet system perhaps could not afford to build a missile defense.
On the other hand, perhaps the outlines of continuing MAD with hypersonic and radically maneuvering warheads, or ICBM’s flying over Antarctica, might have calmed Soviet fears. I have always wondered what was going on in the minds of the Kremlin in the 1980’s.
RE: Cosimo on April 30, 2021 · at 9:24 pm EST/EDT
“I thought I was clear: Star Wars put pressure on the Soviet leaders to prefer Gorbachov and glasnost, because”
” I have always wondered what was going on in the minds of the Kremlin in the 1980’s.”
Bridging doubt by belief to attain “answers” is a popular resort often visited by opponents, facilitating others many opportunities including but not limited to – tell the truth as far as you are capable few will believe you thereby reinforcing the blindness of some opponents.
Conflating correlation with causation is also popular.
The opponents’ social relations encourage seeking attribution/credit which also affects the “Secret Services” as illustrated by we-won-the-cold-warness and we-tricked-the-Soviet-Union-into-invading-Afghanistaness.
The opponents were/are prone to frame “analyses” to achieve outcomes comforting to their “target audience” : one of the primary exponents of this process was Gosplan, facilitating increased alienation including but not restricted to – they pretend to pay us, we pretend to work.
“Star Wars put pressure on the Soviet leaders”.
No you are mistaken.
Your beliefs are beliefs which you may seek to conflate with “interpretations”; not hypotheses corroborated by “evidence” to which you had/have no access.
In conjunction with the opponents, the “Soviet leadership” and their advisors understood that Star Wars was not viable for various reasons including financial despite resort to fiats including Star Wars, and also understood that nuclear winter required even less catalyst than previously estimated.
Hence the “leadership” of the Soviet Union and their advisors on the basis of “democratic centralism” did not see the requirement of changing their nuclear strategy and hence did not feel pressure in regard to “Star Wars”.
” put pressure on the Soviet leaders.”
Some “Soviet leaders” and their advisors understood by late 1968 that “The Soviet Union” was not sustainable and initiated measures illuminated by questions such as “How to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback?”
Consequently the “Soviet leaders” and their advisors were at war with one another from the early 1970’s onwards, largely as a function of the increasing alienation of the population facilitated in part by the actual decreasing rate of acculation of the “Soviet” economy obfuscated by Gosplan and others, futher exacerbated by detente on the basis of spheres of influence with “The United States of America”, and international adventures/”duties” predicated thereon, most obviously in Afghanistan.
“ the Soviet leaders to prefer Gorbachov and glasnost “
Mr. Gorbachev was “adopted” by a certain faction of “Soviet leadership” due to his abilities in schmoozing and limited abilities in almost everything else, except in frustrating other factions in the “Soviet leadership” and their adoptees who attepted to delay matters by the elevation of Mr. Chernyenko.
Mr. Gorbachev was “marketed/sold” to other factions in the “Soviet leadership” and their adoptees on a case by case basis according to the target audience’s “primary concerns”.
The chosen “narratives/sales pitches” included
Mr. Gorbachev has no base in the party – he is a lawyer – and so he could attempt to help the party and party leadership become more tolerant of one another, which was interpreted by some as aproximately – He is a nobody so we can control him.
Mr. Gorbachev does have some connection with some ideas on reforming the “Soviet” economy which if they don’t work can be “blamed” on him and his associates – which Mr. Gorbachev and his connections also understands.
Mr. Gorbachev does not have close connections with Gosplan unlike you.
Mr. Gorbachev illustrated the continuing utility of useful fools.
First through attempts at increasing productivity including by trying the prohibition of alcohol – “Perestroika – which further increased the alienation of the population.
Then Mr. Gorbachev and his associates tried to dispel alienation through explanation/openness – Glasnost – which gave the population ever more information on how they had been and continued to be “screwed” – which further increased the alienation of the population.
In April 1986 a reactor at the Chernobyl nuclear plant exploded spreading contaminated materials over a very wide area.
The “Soviet leaders” did not inform the “Soviet” population immediately of the explosion and possible consequences.
The “Soviet leaders” initially restricted distribution of iodine and other protections to the nomenklatura.
The “Soviet leaders” did not cancel the May Day parades in Kiev and elsewhere, whilst some of the population relied on foreign sources for information enhancing the reliance of others on rumours.
This further increased the alienation of the population, which increased the war between “Soviet” leaders.
Mr. Gorbachev, Mr. Shevernadze, and their advisors met Mr. Landsbergis, Mr. Brazauskas and their advisors inside Zonikai airbase near Siauliai to discuss Lithuanian independence.
The meeting was unsuccessful and broke up.
Shortly there after Soviet forces killed some Lithuanian demonstrators at the television centre in Vilnius, ensuring that alienation was not restricted to the population, unlike in the Krasnodar riots of 1954.
That opponents lived/live in fantasy lands has utility, and hence some did not always choose Glasnost in respect of opponents, but chose silence when engaged in activities facilitated by opponents living in fantasy lands.
“What just happened in Ukraine?
That is complex.
If that was so easy, nobody would need to worry – but yeah Russia did again the right moves in setting red lines and pulling back some troops to show some goodwill – that way they won more time – sorry for not sharing your optimism but it’s far from over, it even didn’t really started as yet
Maria Zacharova pointed out that the pullback was simply due to the completion of Military exercises and that movements on Russian soil were Russias business.
Whether there was doublespeak or not, Russia showed its capability in terms of speed of deployment and formidable firepower…so it served its purpose….
But the assets are still close enough to regroup fast if necessary…which clearly demonstrates the lack of trust in NATOs machinations…
Ukraine’s GDP is ~150 billion dollars, and the revenues from gas transit are 3 billion. So more like 2% of the Ukrainian GDP. Yes it would be a hit but far from breaking the country.
In 2015 Ukraine’s GDP was ~90 billion, the transit was about 4 billion, so the more time passes the less of an impact NS2 will have on it.
Ukraine’s GDP the last years.They are still down a lot from 2013.But better than 2014,2015,2016,2017.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
136.011 163.161 175.707 179.572 130.571 90.489 93.313 112.125 130.857 150.401 142.250
Economists always distinguish between “local money” which circulates locally, and money which comes in from outside. The number I was taught in business school for US localities, is that one dollar brought in, circulates among the locals an average of 8 times. So if these piplelines brought in 2% of the GDP, that would account for 16% of the GDP, using the US rule of thumb.
Very sad to see what has become of the Ukraine. It just shows that anywhere the US hangs its hat and makes itself at home, the results are catastrophic. In my eyes, the US is the Harvey Weinstein of the world.
right: the more accurate would be: “you want to destroy your country, your home, invite in Soros”. tangible & fresh examples: Georgia, Ukraine, Armenia.
The ukronazis Côme from Canada?
Ukronazis come from western Ukraine and from Canada. As for Canada, it hold’s a large emigre Ukrainian population, World War Two Ukrainian Nazis who fled to Canada. In 2017 Canada’s Foreign Minister was Christina Alexandra Freeland, whose mother was from Ukraine.
And whose grandfather was a ‘newspaper Nazi’, which she lied about. Chrystia Freeland is a Russian and Ukrainian speaking uber-russophobe and there is a real risk she (directed by her handlers) may become PM.
Canada has the third largest population of Ukrainians and descendants after Russia and Ukraine itself.
There was even a Canadian dialect of Ukrainian in earlier times (eh!) but most descendants no longer speak Ukrainian. Unfortunately they are all well-schooled by the media etc. in anti-Russian vitriol and Canada’s wimp PM states (without much conviction) that Crimea must return to Ukraine.
So the conclution should be that The US of North A should return Canada to the Ukraine!
A very large number of refugees from the Ukraine fled to Canada (in particular), the USA and UK after WW2. These were all supporters of Nazi Germany who assumed the German attack on Russia would be an opportunity for these Ukrainians to win their own ideological fight against Russia …. but the tide of war was not in their favour… it also broke up families, with one brother supporting the Red Army…and another brother supporting the German invaders…
The current situation is that many of these Ukronazis families have entered politics in Canada and are influencing the debate within NATO…so Canada is a crucible for a lot of the ongoing Russophobia. That will also continue to be the main source of further tensions, even if the situation were to be neutralised within the Ukraine proper. These Ukronazi kids are irrational -completely brainwashed. They provide many of the enthusiastic NATO trainers that make the Ukrainians then think NATO will back them in any full scale conflict.
Not all “Ukrainian refugees” were Nazi supporters. Some were Polish Jews, remnants of the Nazi genocide, and ordinary Polish Ukrainians not Nazis. They emigrated together, from the great melting pot of Galicia in Poland to the great melting pot of the Great Lakes area in North America and their surrounding fertile plains so reminiscent of home: around Montreal and Toronto in Canada, around Chicago in the U$A — Obama country.
Yes indeed…thanks for the correction….just as south of the border so many German refugees post WW2 were not Nazis…
” … just as south of the border so many German refugees post WW2 were not Nazis…”. Technically most Germans were not Nazis. However, as a former member of the SS stated, “who was not a Nazi in Hitlers Germany ?”. When Hitler invaded the Soviet Union (Russia) in 1941, how many Germans really objected ?
In the 1970s i hitchhiked all over Europe. I recall many a time when Germans stopped and when the driver understood i was from Britain, the drivers would say either: “I was a prisoner of War in Britain and i can tell you i was glad to be there / out of harms way ” (25% of the time)…or: “This is a great opportunity to ask a British man, why on earth Britain did not join us to fight against Russia”..(75% of the time). the latter group included a Hamburg Taxi driver who proudly showed me his Totenkopf ring and when i showed interest in why he was still wearing this ring, advised me that the Totenkopf guys were the nicest guys one could imagine and he felt nostalgia for those wonderful times….
Many told me that being teenagers and being given the responsibility and pleasure to use a vehicle, be it motorcycle, jeep, truck, Kettenrad or tank and going on long drives east with a fun bunch of other kids was a big adventure for them which they did not regret. I felt that their brains also never developed from 1945 to 1970…
Later when i had a car of my own, which happened to have a BAOR plate, i remember well even into the 1980s, the many old men who waved their fists at me, as i drove through some pretty German village and looked in my rear mirror….
Unfortunately you are correct. I live right in the center of a predominantly Ukrainian Area of Canada. The hate for Russia is downright disturbing. There is no logic to it and it is multigenerational. Iti is in the political system and only getting stronger. Chrystia Freeland and others are making it downright unsafe for anyone who is not critical to the extreme about Russia. The contact these people have with the nazis in Ukraine does give these elements the courage to act thinking we have their backs. All this has a limit because the silent majority will not send their children to fight in Ukraine at least I won’t.
“… or back in Canada.” — I have travelled to Canada annually for several years and there is definitely a strong Ukrainian anti-Russian undertone in the culture. Pity really, otherwise generally nice polite sane north American stock without the ‘exceptionalist’ virus that is festering away south of the border.
A large and ferociously rabid anti Russian Ukrainian diaspora in Canadian senior leadership.
And wealthy, a good source of ‘campaign contributions’ and donations to the cause in Ukraine. The politicians will take bended knee for the cash and the votes, hence Trudeaus obsequiousness.
Canadian Ukrainian descendants hang on to their Nazi roots through a boy scout style organization:
The major organizations introduced by the third wave of immigration were the intensely nationalistic Canadian League for the Liberation of Ukraine (established in 1949; now the League of Ukrainians Canadians), and Plast Canada, a scouting youth group (established in 1948). Both groups maintain ties with like-thinking Ukrainians around the world. [Canadian Encyclopedia]
Previous to that there were two other waves of Ukrainian immigrants, the first being a plan to settle the prairies with immigrants who were considered “Hardy survivors” needed to survive the primitive conditions on the newly opened lands of the pairies.
Clifford Sifton, minister of the interior [circa late 1890s]:
““When I speak of quality I have in mind, I think, something that is quite different from what is in the mind of the average writer or speaker upon the question of Immigration. I think a stalwart peasant in a sheep-skin coat, born on the soil, whose forefathers have been farmers for ten generations, with a stout wife and a half-dozen children, is good quality.”
Russia’s recent actions couldn’t solve the problem of Ukraine. Only the end of Ukraine can solve the problems of Ukraine.
However, Russia established its military prowess without a bullet fired or anyone injured.
This won’t necessarily prevent combat they may be forced to join.
This won’t end the Ukie criminality and crimes against humanity under the full approval and abetting of the US, EU and NATO.
But it assures the Donbass that they will have salvation if attacked full force. Meanwhile, and this could mean years more, they will have to suffer the deaths and casualties brought upon them from Kiev.
There is no other way to wait out the demise of Ukraine but to wait.
There may be a way to finish off Ukraine that Putin has in his mind.
So far, no analyst has come up with the specifics of such a plan, much less Putin’s timetable for such an action.
Our expectation that Russia will do what must be done with Ukraine is all we have so far. This is seven years we have these expectations.
Imagine the Ukies perception of this impending doom they know they deserve and will receive at some point, night or day, whatever time Putin decides.
It’s all part of the strategy.
And keep this in mind. Putin wants not just Ukraine broken. He wants NATO broken, also.
So the trap is set, baited for both the nazis and warmonger Russophobes.
We just have to be patient. We can guess. We can ruminate. We can hope.
Only Putin knows.
“There may be a way to finish off Ukraine that Putin has in his mind”. Yes, that is true. Nobody, of course, knows what Putin’s plans are. However, I think that patience is part of his plans, especially since patience is part of Russian culture and usually misunderstood. As they say in Russia, “Good. Now we wait”.
The coup d’etat against Yanukovich ocurred in 2014. Seven years have elapsed. The situation in Ukraine has gone from bad to worse. By December of 2017, some 4 million Ukrainians have emigrated to the West and 4.4 million to Russia (something the Western media, of course, ignores). According to one analyst, the emigration rate from Ukraine was some years back an incredible 100.000 people a month. This might be an exaggeration, but emigration is happening. Analysts are not sure if the current population of Ukraine is 36 or 25 million. It used to be 50 million under Yanukovich.
And the Ukrainian military ? Yes, we all know it’s firepower has been beefed up, including Western style training. However, this military is still a conscript force, made up of conscripts who have no real desire to fight. They are, after all, Orthodox Christians, just like Russians. How many millions of Ukrainians have so far emigrated to Russia, and how many have submitted applications for Russian citizenship ? The West, of course, ignores this.
As the old rule states, a military is a personification of the internal situation in the country. Does impoverished Ukraine want a war ? I don’t see how. What would happen inside Ukraine in case of a war in the Donbass ? A chain reaction, leading to a new Maidan or something similar to it ? We could well see Mahatma Gandhi style passive resistance, where everything in the country would stop,leading to to it’s break up. Is Washington aware of this ? I am not sure. What is a fact is that the neocons in the US will use proxy Ukraine for anti-Russian activities. What else can they do ? Use NATO for an attack ? I think not. Sacrifice Ukraine for an attack against Russia ? Possible, but who would mainatain Ukraine politically and financially. The US and EU ? I think not, as neither have the money.
The impression is that at the moment we have a stalemate which NATO and Washington are trying to resolve, with the chief EU members – Germany and France – working behind the scenes to avert a regional war, which would certainly not benefit them. What clinched the situation, at least temporarily, was the speedy and massive deployment of the Russian military. NATO and Washington know that after Putin’s arrival on the political scene the Russian military has been vastly improved. However, I think that both have been surprised by the efficiency of the Russian military response. Now both are thinking as to their next moves.
Will there be a regional war in the Donbass ? We shall see. The neocons in the US are desperate for a conflict and could well go it alone, forcing Ukraine into war. However, I think that the attitude of individual EU members will be of importance. After all, the US is on the other side of the Atlantic while EU members are in Europe, as is Ukraine, the Donbass and Russia. What might settle the matter is the strength of EU members and their opposition to Washington which, at the moment, is probably covert, with infighting behind the scenes. And the EU as such ? Of no importance. It has been reduced to a pro-Washington parrot. What matters are individual EU members, not the institution as such.
Finally, a regional war in the Donbass region will certainly see internal repercussions in Ukraine. It will also see repercussions inside the EU and NATO, with both being weakened, eventually leading to their break up. Is Washington aware of this ? I am not sure.
Larchmonter, I don’t think even Putin really knows. What I do think is that every possible permutation has been war-gamed by the Kremlin – that could be thousands of branching options, but the Russians have the supercomputers and the minds to contemplate all the possibilities.
And out of all those possibilities, Russia has revealed her strategy: to keep the conflict frozen under the Minsk 2 agreement. This was actually a very productive outcome for all to see.
Putin and the generals acted elegantly indeed, and deserve high praise. As true warriors, they achieved a real advantage without any bloodshed. And everyone will now say, okay that was once, but now we expect this so next time they’ll do something different. But if the US does nothing different, why should the RF?
As you say, this kind of maneuvering could easily go on for years. As you have often said, when Russia forced Minsk 2, the game was locked in perpetuity – apparently, nothing can break it, certainly not military force from the west.
So, maybe NATO doesn’t get broken in Ukraine. Maybe it gets broken from the inside, as Europe continues (very secretly) to see a future with Russia and not with the Atlantic.
Maybe NATO overreaches and gets broken in Africa, or South America, or the Arctic. I suspect the Russian war games embrace the entire planet.
I like your foreshadowing of a Ukraine trap baited…but for Ukraine it may be nothing more than getting feeble and dying, fading away like a derelict. And maybe a true revolution happens inside that brings a different leadership – maybe Russia’s Airborne could be of use then to kill some Nazis. And I’d bet that Russia has many of those kind of scenarios gamed. After all Ukraine is an open book for Russian intel.
I think Russia won’t move on Ukraine until Ukraine generates the kinetic energy for Russia to use, one way or another – like a judoka, Russia will not spend her energy here, but only the energy of the enemy. I begin to suspect that while the Donbass is held in brotherly esteem, outside of that territory Russia will not spend one kopek on these phantom borderlands.
As Saker says, the US broke it, and they can pay for it. And now we know that this is the overarching policy.
Excellent points, Grieved.
The sadness is for the people of Donbass. Their destiny is being written in blood of little ones and old ones and men and women of fierce loyalty to the sacred ground of their parents and grandparents who defeated the Nazis of Germany.
All we can do is keep them in thought and prayer while the shelling and sniping continues.
“So, maybe NATO doesn’t get broken in Ukraine. Maybe it gets broken from the inside, as Europe continues (very secretly) to see a future with Russia and not with the Atlantic.”
NATO will dissolve when the usd$ loses its reserve currency status and the capacity to print fiat monopoly money fades. One thing the yapping EU poodles can’t do is pay for it themselves.
RE : Grieved on April 25, 2021 · at 10:19 pm EST/EDT
“But if the US does nothing different, why should the RF?”
This is a belief/frame which you share with some opponents – a potential vector of transcendence.
“Russia has revealed her strategy”
This is a belief/frame which you also share with some opponents – a potential vector of transcendence.
Your overall comment is an illustration of the disadvantages of sheep thinking they are sharks, a tendency also illustrated by some of the opponents who often conflate believe/think, and are rendered spectators left pondering “What just happened in Ukraine ?”
That was a condescending but accurate. Do the unexpected in a context that makes you appear predictable. It’s a narrative that has to fit.
Please tell all this face-to-face, before the dead and dying of Donbas’, to not mention patriotic elements within the armed forces and intelligence services. Their views would differ from yours and Putin’s. Besides, pragmatism as an end in itself is immoral, in the face of pure evil.
RE: Daniel on April 26, 2021 · at 6:53 am EST/EDT
Thank you for your conditioned response apparently couched in belief in the parable of the shepherd and 99 sheep in a book some refer to as ” The bible” in illumation of
MagdaTam on April 26, 2021 · at 3:16 am EST/EDT
and why the question “How to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback ?” was/is posed, since in war people die, as is widely understood and accepted in some social relations, whilst being a subject of denial – sometimes through the maintainance of memorials instead of lives – in some other social relations thereby contributing to why the West continues to attempt to live in a fantasy land..
So Antony Blinken is chairing the meeting in the Pentagon with the young and ambitious recently graduated students from one of the top universities in the US where they studied tacticts as well as gender studies. Under discussion how to checkmate Russia.
The younger ones concentrate on somehow getting Navalny out and active. Much discussion ensures yet it is after some tedious hours decided this will not work as Navalny is really an idiot.
After a while an ‘old hand’ decides to make a comment. ‘”Why not use our basic plan we always use?”
“And what is that asked one of the youngsters?”
“Distraction from what?”
“A coup in Belarus.”
“And what will be the distraction?”
“Simple… a movement of Ukraine troops to the Russian border … not to fight but to look like they might …
If Mr. Blinken could go to Ukraine and brief our Nato allies and get some support for this plan we might get a coup in Belarus to succeed while the Russians are stuffing around with their defences. Then we will have our weapons right on the border of Russia.”
Blinken smiled, “well we do have some operatives in Belarus …”
“Do we tell our allies in NATO the truth asked one of the new Uni graduates?”
“Of course not! Every time we have used this plan it has worked. No one know just how cunning we can be.” Blinken clasped his hands and looked around the table, “We always win.”
Everyone was terribly impressed.
That’s pretty much what happened. I agree.
Putin talked about a cyber attack planned in Minsk. Biden even boasted a few weeks ago that a cyber attack would be coming.
Russia went through an awful crucible in the 1990’s and emerged a very different nation. Why would Russians not hope that the Ukrainians could emerge from their own even worse nightmare, and that afterwards, the people of the Ukraine would then make a great effort to fight off everyone and everything which put them into that mess ?
I haven’t seen this idea anywhere, but it’s so obvious that I may have just missed it. Has anyone seen this discussed in Russia ?
Saker you mentioned that peace will come to the Ukraine when the Ukronazis return to Canada. Here in Canada, we have the travel ban – only essential travel allowed. Well, my daughter left for Amsterdam for her studies and they were a little over a dozen people on the plane and the majority of them were young Ukrainians going to Kiev via Amsterdam. I guess going to war is essential business. So much for peace in the near future!
The Ukrainian leaders do exactly what the US tells them to do. They will never act independently. Therefore it is a mistake to focus on what the Ukrainian leaders will decide to do or not do. They will do whatever the US tells them to do.
“a little over a dozen people on the plane and the majority of them were young Ukrainians going to [fight for the Anglo Zionazi Capitalist regime in] Kiev”.
The Dirty Dozen” is great entertainment, though it’s not generally considered a great movie.
Saker you have again shown the meat of the issues. May I just say that what is overlooked by the West is the pimples of. Kaliningrad, Tartus, Khmeimim. These bases can be defensive and offensive and strike at the very heart of the EU and destroy the 6th feet.
Perhaps they know this but the bear has shown its teeth.
I take it the Canada connection is known then?
Obligatory, what kind of butt-backwards stuff is this? https://nypost.com/2020/07/18/defaced-nazi-memorial-in-canada-investigated-as-hate-crime/
Putin’s concluding warning to the AngloZionist West was translated above as, “Those behind provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret what they have done in a way they have not regretted anything for a long time.”
This can be restated in forceful, idiomatic English, as I have seen it translated elsewhere, as, “Those behind provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret it like never before.”
I think this better conveys the intensity and resolve that Putin intended in this statement.
RE Robert Munro on April 25, 2021 · at 10:14 pm EST/EDT
Language including register is a catalyst of connotations which vary with “culture”.
Those who render words into another language often fail to understand the connotations of words in the language that they are rendering into another language and/or the connotations of words in another language.
Those so engaged are often refered to as translators instead of by their activity – interpreters.
“I think this better conveys the intensity and resolve that Putin intended in this statement.”
Context interacting with “culture” is also important in connotations derived..
The “culture” of the Russian Federation is not to issue threats, but to make statements of intent, since inherent in threats is an aspect of implied reticence to act, whereas the “culture” of some of the potential audience are based upon and facilitated by the issuance of threats.
The “culture” of the “Soviet Union” as a coercive society was more prone to issue threats than the Russian Federation, and in some ways some of the potential audience tend to conflate the Russian Federation with the “Soviet Union”
Consequently it is almost impossible to translate the intensity and resolve inherent in Mr. Putin’s words, only to interpret them.
Yes, an example of escalation dominance both militarily and — for the neocons — personally. Targeting of “decision-making centers” appears to have hit home.
Joe Bob has had a history of not pulling the trigger. Unless he is totally gone, that is still there. The deep state is working hard, the war machine has not stopped. Pray for Putins good counsel. Distraction is coming and Russia will survive. The attention span is short in the west.
I would prefer for Ukronazis not to come back to Canada. We have here too many bloodsucking animals, so jailed and dead is ok.
That’s how y’all populated that cold country. Like “same latitiude as Lisbon” etc… Got to take the good with the bad. You know what I’m saying?
Moscow Breaks US Blockade of Syria, Destroys Militant Base
(Apparently Putin has acted! God bless him! Now, hold onto your hat!)
“Russia Breaks US Blockade of Syria, Destroys Militant Base” (15 hours ago):
I think, as Grieved and others laid out many details, the concept of “you break it you own it” is key. The U.S. is bleeding bad from it’s puppet regimes and occupations. Russia, China, Iran and China appear to be operating with an opposite model: a true anti-imperial model that respects sovereignty and offers working partnerships based on candid, honest and fair agreements– the BRI. Biden thinks Russia wants Ukraine. It doesn’t. Time is on the side of the resistance axis. The U.S. deterioration is accelerating all over. On the homefront, I look for individual states to emerge as stronger power centers which will lead to breakups and de-coupling from the federal government. Overseas I anticipate a full blown defeat at some point somewhere this year: Ukraine, the Middle East, Afghanistan, Africa, Pacific, Brazil.
An American friend who was an ex special forces ranger and as brainwashed and super patriotic as they come, stated that he was now no longer so sure that the US could survive the next years. i asked how he expects the situation to evolve? His thought was that the society is becoming so fractured along so many fault-lines that appear irreconcilable, that he would now not be surprised if the USA would break up into 4 separate groups of states….with a corresponding ethnic cleaning and mass flow of populations to ‘adjust’ to the appropriate political entity…
Time is on Russia’s side…
Already predicted by Russian Professor:
The fault lines have always been there.
Gee, that was encouraging.
But it’s better to know the truth than the west’s fairy tales and packs of lies…
Thanks for the analysis about the situation around the Ukraine. And I would agree that ‘it was a very solid plan’.
But I think that the plan was much more elaborate than just the Ukraine and included the coup d’etat in Belarus and likely some other fronts at the same time. I think that the overall plan likely included trying to reverse all of the losses that the ‘Globalists’ have suffered at the hands of Russia since 2013 in one fell swoop.
Russia exposing the coup in Belarus was likely also a factor in the their decision to back off at this time.
Such an elaborate plan was likely the fruit of a year or more’s work by the neocons surrounding Biden, with the plan being put into action as soon as Biden took office. The neocons’ rage at seeing their plans foiled before they even got off the ground can be seen in the nonsense regarding embassy personnel.
I agree that the ‘Globalists’ won’t stop. They never do. However, I think that it will take at least 6 months to a year for them to come up with a new plan to draw Russia into a military confrontation, be it in the Ukraine or elsewhere. In the mean time, I would expect to see actions that amount more to harassment, rather than anything serious, and more likely on the economic front, rather than military.
If Russia wants to put a stop to this, I think that they need to work with China to hit the U.S. where it will hurt the most – the dollar. Attacking the reserve currency status of the dollar is the only sure way to limit the US’ hegemonic ambitions.
This might be construed as asymmetric.
The West’s problem is that Russia does not know to fight small wars and the crazies in London, Washington, Langley and Tel Aviv did not know where the Russian Army would have stopped: Spain or Portugal. Some of them were betting on the Russians stopping at the Dnieper, some of them were guessing it would have been Lvov. However, those amongst them with some brain left who are an absolute minority in that Satanic world order clearly understood that there would be no stopping the Russians until they reached the Atlantic.
The Ukraine is not the problem here. The problem is NATO/US. They have to be pushed back as they clearly reneged on the Yalta/Potsdam agreements, especially the Yalta agreement.
great and correct analysis imnsho
I see a lot of threads here talking about Western Canadian Ukrainians as if they were one united group. There were two waves of Ukrainian immigrants to western Canada. The first wave preceded the first world war. The first group came from the Austrian-Hungarian empire and consisted largely of farming families with a socialist bent. The second wave came after WW2 and was comprised on the most of Ukrainian intellectuals. These two groups despised each other. Each group has its own community centre in this city separated by a block and a half. Up until the late 70’s these groups would have the occasional scuffle and would literally throw rocks at each other. The group you mention in these threads came from the second wave. Please be more specific when mentioning them in the future posts…call them the Second Wave Ukrainian Canadians or SWUC.
Maybe it is worth going back even further and mentioning that there were two groups of Mennonite farming communities which settled in northern Poland from the Netherlands who were then invited by Catherine the Great (herself a Prussian) to settle in the newly acquired territory of the Ukraine. The “hardworking farming tradition” in the Ukraine has mostly to do with this Mennonite farming stock (which was a collectivist-minded group just like the affiliated Swiss Amish). They were happy in the Ukraine as long as they did not have to do any military service but then the Czar who followed on from Catherine insisted that they must do military service. it was this stage which triggered a wave of emigration to Canada, USA and to Latin America. So these German Platdutsch speaking Ukie/Russian Mennonites settled in Latin America long before the wave of German immigration post WW2.
The wiki page on Mennonites goes into a lot of interesting detail on the culture but does not address this first stage of population movement from northern Poland to the Ukraine>
but this one does>
lots of fascinating detail there…
This is an excellent analysis including separate groups of Hutterites. Kate the Great’s origin was as a Saxon princess, though the area she was from was taken over by Prussia some time after 1763. Interestingly enough, her husband basically saved Prussia because of his love of toy soldiers and Friedrich the Great. He took over when Tsarina Elizabeth (I’m pretty sure of the name) died in 1762. A coup d’etat based on what was basically his treason put his wife, Catherine the Great, in power. The settlement which ended the Seven Years War then strengthened Prussia and eventually lead to its absorption of Catherine’s native principality and, over 100 years, its creation of the Prussian based German Reich. The traitorous Tsar, by halting the destruction of Prussia, probably had other historical effects, including the creation of modern Canada because Prussia was Britain’s major continental ally against France in the Seven Years War, and the destruction of Prussia might likely have led to the restoration of Quebec to France despite French forces having lost it in the war in North America. The traitorous Tsar had a modern echo. When FDR died on April 12, 1945, Nazi diehards hoped that a similar miracle would occur and the Nazi regime would be preserved just like Prussia was when Tsarina Elizabeth died and an incompetent heir apparent took over for awhile until he was liquidated.
“At best, Russia is currently investing billions of rubles to rebuild Crimea (which the Nazis always hated and neglected – except to build themselves mansions on the Black Sea)”
“hated and neglected”
This is a real fact that is never mentioned in the articles published by “Western journalists”
Also they never published an article showing all that has been achieved from 2014, they are too busy maintaining their narrative of Crimea illegally seized and occupied by dictator Putin (…)
In 2007 I went to Crimea for the first time, while since the beginning of the 2000s all the resorts in Krasnodar Krai had been undergoing renovation and modernization, the passage to Crimea felt like a step back in time until 2014 which marked the beginning of the work.
Here you will find different topics with ongoing projects and you only have to go through, for example, the first pages concerning Simferopol airport and the last ones to see the work done, the same for the main road in Crimea:
Road from Kerch to Sevastopol:
War is enevitable for one simple reason..
What we see today is cooked and planed since years..that is since the date USSR was broken to peices.. surrounding the castle..Russua..and then attack in a meanning or another..Russia is the main obstacle for the west to expand to Assia..since centuries..and it is probably the time..
There is a clear link between the “disclosure” project and the buildup to World War III. Mossad (example: Uri Geller) is a hidden but vital player in fomenting disinformation about “ancient aliens,” UFOs, and so on, given that Ashkenazi Zionists, including former Nazis (read about the Transfer Agreement), have long played significant roles in covertly engineering black-budget technology. The Israelis have also sought to undermine traditional religious beliefs by referring to demonic jinn as “extraterrestrials” and infiltrate anti-Establishment communities by promoting subversive New-Age projects. The Zionist-run “deep state,” of course, has long had access to all manner of advanced technology and occult science. The Western media are preparing the groundwork for a truly dystopian “disclosure” moment: an earth-shaking, devastating, false-flag operation, more impactful than 9/11, involving black-budget “ET” technology, to be blamed on a Russian-Chinese-Iranian-“alien” coalition. That would provide the necessary “shock and awe” for World War III.
Russia needs to invade immediately and crush the government in Ukraine. There is no point in waiting any longer.
” hate on Russia and threaten to defeat Russia”
Hate is an emotion.
Resort to emotion limits opportunities to “defeat” opponents, as does immersion in the win/lose conflation, often restricting the opponents options to threats.
Hatred of Russia undermines potential to “defeat” Russia.
The hatred of/by others has utility.
Stop the Empire’s war on Russia?
EuroAtlanticists made a mess of Ukraine, not for Russia but for them to take over, that is how the EuroAtlantic Empire thrives, they use shock therapy (disaster capitalism) on their prey.
You are right Saker, the buildup of Russian troops on the Ukraine-Russia border was aimed at NATO. The Russians do not need to invade Ukraine to take out the Bandera leadership, they can use standoff weapons (cruise missiles…) to accomplish that goal.
“The idea of a surpise attack was etched onto the mind of the Soviet leadership, they could not forget the humiliation of June 1941 when under the guise of an exercise, Hitler marched into the Soviet Union launching Operation Barbarossa.”
The Russians must be very suspicious about the upcoming NATO exercise (Defender).
Not only the NATO exercises, but the “withdrawal” from Afghanistan. This withdrawal is accompanied by moving more troops into Afghanistan to cover the retreat. That in and of itself is no biggie as it makes perfect military sense…but…the troops and hardware being moved into Afghanistan are suspect in my opinion. B-52s? An aircraft carrier parked in the Person Gulf? I am trying to find information on what ground units and equipment that are involved.
Timed for May/June along with the NATO exercises and when the assassination and insurrection planned for Belarus?
ArthurDent on April 26, 2021 · at 4:32 am EST/EDT
” perfect military sense”
Military sense often precludes strategic sense and so it is simultaneously neither perfect nor primary for some who operate collectively, but primary and reflexive for some others who “operate” competitively often limiting co-ordination.
The quote “The idea of a surpise attack was etched onto the mind of the Soviet leadership, they could not forget the humiliation of June 1941 when under the guise of an exercise, Hitler marched into the Soviet Union launching Operation Barbarossa.”
… i got from the documentary “Able Archer 1983: Brink Of Apocalypse”. Able Archer was a Nato exercise.
the Saker writes..
Finally, any Polish force threatening to intervene could be quickly attacked and destroyed. Again, that would enrage the Western politicians, and it is at this moment that the Russians could move her armies across the border to show that any combo of western forces would be annihilated.
That would be a direct attack on both Poland and NATO. Given the current mood in Poland, the likely result is a direct attack on Kaliningrad by Poland and Lithuania.
the Saker writes..
This would leave the West only two options: fold or go nuclear. And going nuclear does not seem to be an option the West wants to exercise, hence folding would be the only viable option.
It’s not yet time for the west to use their nuclear option, and it certainly wont use that option for Ukraine. Russia, on the other hand may be forced to use first, which begs the question > Would the West retaliate or simply lose a city or two in the EU and see Russia totally isolated by the world community. ?
Nuclear War doesn’t work like that. It’s all or nothing, not just one or two cities, but all cities over 250,000.
” It’s all or nothing, not just one or two cities, but all cities over 250,000.”
It’s all or nothing.
“not just one or two cities, but potentially all life forms”
From 1984 onwards it has been established that relatively limited usage of nuclear weapons, including resort to “tactical nuclear weapons” which is in large part an oxymoron, typically so far not including some weapons containing depleted uranium, but including biological weapons. would catalyse nuclear winter, radiaton related deaths, planet wide starvation, and render much of the planet unihabitable for many life forms presently inhabiting the planet, as Mr. Adams understood.
Russia totally isolated by the world community
You are confusing the West with the world community.
“How good was this plan?”
Not a plan but a hope since it did not incorporate all conceivable options of possible interlocutors.
Service as normal, including a serving of “Strategies of tension” for the target audience attempted by those mesmerised by illusions.
The majority of Saker readership knows the adage “slow to mount and ride quickly”. Well, here the Russians demonstrated that they can mount quickly if required.
What has not perhaps been stressed in the excelent analysis is the definite dispelling of the seeming dilema by western “analysts” that the Russians might not respond militarily (or at least immediately) to an attack by the ukronazis. The got an explicit “you dare – no more Ukraine state”.
The anglozionists need a pretext to persuade the population they control that war is needed. Failed in this attempt they might be planing a major false flag event (as pointed out by a number of comments in the open threads).
The dilema for me is whether these events were a singularity or part of preplanned attack on the whole western front (Kaliningrad, Belarus, Ukraine, Syria, Iran…). For if the Controllers conclude that they are losing control of their population (in США, ЕУ,…) or that a financial breakdown is imminent, they just might say “to hell with the preliminaries, pretexts and justification, lets just go directly to a premptive all out attack” hoping that the projections of some of their optimistic “analysts”, that war is winable, are right.
Both Saker & many commentators talk of “Putin” as the genius leader deciding all this.
While I agree that is true, as far as I understand it is not just a one man show. Putin was put up for leadership by the patriotic Russian military officer class especially strategy & intelligence officers known as the Siloviki.
He is backed by a group with a centuries tradition of defending Russia. There are many great minds.
Nonetheless Putin is indispensable as the calm assured face of this backbone group of a sovereign Russian nation.
RE : Peter from Oz on April 26, 2021 · at 4:58 am EST/EDT
” I understand it is not just a one man show.”
“Putin was put up for leadership by the patriotic Russian military officer class especially strategy & intelligence officers known as the Siloviki.
On collectivity your points are valid whilst your notions on the extent of the collective even in the late 1990’s too restricted.
“Nonetheless Putin is indispensable”
Due to collectivity and development thereof, neither the collective nor Mr. Putin would agree that “Putin is indispensable”, as illustrated in the recent Russian Constitution; the old second-hand donated constitution attempting to convince others that the Presidental role is indispensable and primary.
The illusions and projections of opponents always have utility for those waiting for Godot and those not waiting for Godot.
There are few things that really wory me and I really be glad if you could explain me. You or another but please, not one or the same pro-Russian parots that we already have the pro-US parots with the same old song: ” they are the best of Galaxy and univers, and they can chew the others and spit them for breakfast”.
1: you say that current wars are 90% communication. Ok. So WHY Russia said nothing, absolutly nothing when Ukies suddendly swore to take back Donbass and Crimée by force, broke the Minsk agreement and massed troops and big guns on the contact line. Did Russia shout and scream at UNSC? No. Not a word. Did she alert and witness the General Assembly? Not at all. Did she convene French and German ambassador to require them to force Ukies tout follow Minsk agrement ? No. Did she launch a media campaign about that? No. Neither RT nor Sputnik seemed too concerned at the beginning of that affair. The lone places where I’ve learned something were the Saker and another few places.
Instead of launching a communication war, Russia said nothing and silently massed troops on frontiers.
What’s on their mind? Stupid? Crazy? Suicidal?Unaware?
With this absolute lack of communication it was a true gift to western propaganda wich may cry against the bad Russians who suddendly, for no reason, masse troops and guns at the frontier of the good weak democratic Ukied to probably invide them( what else?).
I really feel a big anger on front such a mess.
Poutine, Lavrov, Shouigu and others prooved us they are smart, cleaver, aware.
Why this suicidal silence?
Facts are more convincing than noise which, anyhow, would prove to be counterproductive given that Russia has no voice in the Western echo chambers. Just be happy with the outcome and don’t wait for Russian victories to be promulgated in Western media!
Every encounter between persons, states and systems triggers new dynamics and developments. The situation does not remain the same as before. I certainly am not in a position to predict medium and long term consequences but one short term result seems apparent and obvious – Sheere Khan and the tabaquis have suffered a defeat and lost a lot of prestige.
Pragmatism, to win a war without a war, but in the end it means surrender. Putin knows that it is not necessary to destroy the Ukron Nazis with an explosion, because they will be destroyed by an implosion. But moral capitulation to evil strengthens evil, as long as you feed the snake milk to bite you more venomously. If we look at history, the fight destroyed evil, and it is always a fight that is worth it, and I feel sorry for the frontal destruction of this Ukro-Nazi evil. Alexander Dugin came to my mind and said: “Russia should destroy America, because death means life” Evil must be destroyed in order to live. Yielding to evil is evil in itself.
“Russia should destroy America, because death means life”
I understand, where you are coming from, however with all due respect, the problem is that the whole world will also be destroyed in a nuclear holocaust. With Nuclear Weapons, 13500 of them. We live in a world, where there are simply no easy answers, no easy solutions.
Delusional UK military UK says today it was their warnings that forced Russia to turn back from invading Ukraine……..
Yes the UK noticed that the US blinked and did not send their two warships into the Black Sea after Russian warnings…so the UK sent their two warships and positioned some of their special forces inside the Ukraine…and lo and behold…the Russian military retreated…
This little island might be just an irritating pimple on the backside of Europe, seen from the Russian viewpoint but the UK “will steadfastly uphold the rules-based-order and make sure that Russia knows its place.” The UK singlehandedly won WW1 and WW2 (if you read the UKs military historians who know this better than anyone else but you can also see the Hollywood version in which case it was the Yanks wot did it singlehanded) and intends to beef up its resources in Afghanistan as the US seems to be losing its backbone there…;oP
Personally…. it would be great if the current lunacy would stop and they could get their priorities right and bring out a decent vaccine which doesnt kill and proper testing kits that give reliable data, if they dont want to allow the Russian one to be marketed in the UK…
Of course the UK won WW1, immediately after they sunk HMS Hampshire with Lord Kitchener on board who was headed to Russia to help in the reorganisation of the Russian army. And of course Lloyd George never considered Zimmermann’s offer of peace in 1916 after the Somme fiasco.
And your description; “This little island might be just an irritating pimple on the backside of Europe” would compare with that of the description of Clan Gregor; “A wart on the arsehole of a Campbell” which in reality meant that to remove the wart, blood would have to be shed.
But in reading the history of WW2, I would suggest that your description is somewhat of a fairy tale especially when considering two islands, that of Crete and of Singapore which the Poms ran up the white flag as soon as the going got tough much to the angst of the Australians fighting there. No! hang on; in Singapore the going didn’t even get tough before the Poms ran up their undies (white flag).
The recent speech by Maria Zhakarova really said it all so perfectly:….listening to the BBC or US channels shows the western MSM and political world is living in an alternate reality …
BTW in a previous post, you gave a “taster” with some fascinating details about all the malevolents in Oz….I am sure it would interest readers here if you were to expand a bit more on the topic…
Yes Maria Zhakarova isn’t shackled by the Ashkenazi Zionists which is the only good thing Gorbachev did when he sold out the USSR to the US in that those actions allowed the Russians to reclaim their ‘freedom’! England however came under their spell when Cromwell accepted the bribes from the Ashkenazi in Amsterdam and then hung Charles. Of course Cromwell was of one of those ‘new’ religions, utterly pious and totally vicious against all else, much the same as the religious bigots that sailed to the New World and landed at Plymouth Rock.
In regards to my apprenticeship, if the Saker would enjoy a bit of Australian history in regards to total control and experimentation in preparation for tactics to be used in the US, and he invited such an article, then I would oblige, but I noticed that you never bothered to reply to that ‘taster’, but here’s another.
The last of the former SAS team that assassinated JFK, Joe Vialls aka Ari ben Menashe died in about December 2019. Readers on this site would also have known him as Mulga Mumblebrain. The shooter from the grassy knoll, Officer W. J. Harrison aka Johannes Overbeeke died about a year earlier. The shooter from the top of the Del Tex building, Officer Miller, aka Henry Ayres as well as Alexander Legault died in Alaska in about 2005. How do I know all of this? Well Joe, in his usual manner told me, as he could never stop boasting.
“I noticed that you never bothered to reply to that ‘taster’ ”
No offence meant. I try to keep up with articles and readers comments on this here most interesting and informative of Blogs ( with a tip of the hat and a bow to The Saker) but am also sometimes swamped by business commitments…
As you mention the JFK assassination, i have read another narrative>
The son of Roscoe White, a Dallas Policeman, found the diary of his father in an attic trunk. In the diary, Roscoe White stated that HE was the sniper sitting behind the Grassy Knoll and that one of his bullets killed JFK.
The son of Roscoe White was a little too loud in mentioning this and was soon contacted by the FBI who took the diary and never returned it…the son never had the presence of mind to copy out what he had read…
This narrative certainly confirmed that L H Oswald was not the sole assassin but it differs / adds to your own?
what say you?
I would concur that many interesting people read the Saker’s site, including many in the industry.
I have read the narrative of Roscoe White’s diary, and was never really concerned about it. What is interesting and somewhat telling is the story of the magical bullet that never behaved to Newton’s laws, and then there was the story of only three bullets fired, but that is only relevant to the actual assassination team, as there were at least five rounds fired. So just exactly where did those other rounds come from?
And then there was the Air force Intel guy who informed the widow of JD Tippit of his demise, and so many other little anomalies. That should be considered interesting, but the real clincher was the presence of Edward Lansdale, and his walk past the three tramps, and that really tells you everything. Edward Lansdale resigned from his position in the Kennedy Administration on the 1st November 63, but was in Dallas on the day, but then moved to Saigon to work with the CIA until 68, I think. In that he did a Churchill in avoiding the Royal Commission cum Warren Report.
So consider two teams of ‘assassins’ in Dallas on the day; one set up by Lansdale to create a supposed attempt that could be blamed on Cuba, and another recruited by Angleton and Harvey via Peter Wright of MI5. (read his book ‘Spycatcher’ especially page 162)
The interesting thing about Peter Wright’s book is that in the beginning he explains that he shreds and destroys all relevant papers and diaries in regards to his work with MI5, but then in his book written after his retirement he blabs the lot, which simply means that he didn’t destroy his personal recollections, did he!
So on the day there are two teams employed; one by Lansdale and the other headed by Poppy Bush, which is the SAS team seconded from MI6, and that explains the British knowledge of what was going on in Dallas.
Lansdale’s team is rounded up, or at least the effort was made. but JD Tippit does a check on his mate Harry Olsen, but Olsen doesn’t answer the phone call from the record shop and so Tippit goes to the safe house being guarded by Olsen and runs into the little fat man Vialls, and Tippit reacts by going for his gun, but the little fat man beats him. Olsen witnesses this event I think from the other police car in the side lane; doesn’t matter. So now there needs to be a fall-guy also for the shooting of Tippit and that can only be LHO, who is hiding out at the Texas Theatre. After LHO is arrested and dragged out of the theatre, have a look at the cigar chomping bloke holding Oswald. That is not Buckley who when interviewed had a sprained ankle, that’s Joe.
Then have a look at the assassination of LHO in the police garage, and the sudden appearance of a cigar in Officer William J Harrison’s left hand. The man supposedly Jack Ruby is the same man as at the Texas Theatre, and a major clue is that cigar. That removes Jack Ruby who was also in Lansdale’s team. And the method used to kill LHO is also mentioned on the next page in Peter Wright’s book. Oh, and another little clue, Jack Ruby didn’t wear any headgear, especially a fedora, and look at the grip the gunman has on the revolver, with the index finger along the barrel.
Now I’ve known a lot of policemen, and some of them have been less intelligent than others, but do you really think Roscoe White, a motorcyclist policeman would be stupid enough to not only write a diary implicating himself for the assassination and then leave the diary for his son to find? And can you remember just how many witnesses the Dallas Police bumped off, including one in the police locker room!
yes, them and the Ukies
Russia is absolutely *terrified* of them
Ha, ha, ha, let’s see what happens if they still intend to place their 2 destroyers manned with US persons and air planes. that will be very enlightening.
The current occasional shelling of Donetsk is being carried out by Right Sector/ Azov, which acts independently of the UA armed forces.. The Strana.UA site recently interviewed their commander, who only sees, and wishes to see war for the future..
The low-intensity fighting in the Donbas shows the UA Army taking an equal number of casualties, mostly from snipers and self-inflicted mine-clearing & suicide..
There will be no escalation, as the defenders are perfectly able to handle whatever Kiev throws their way, and NATO seems to have recently received a wake-up call..
I’m puzzled by the fact that the Ukies seem to be able to lob artillery at the Novorossians without reply. What I mean by that is counter battery. Surely they could locate the Ukie arty and fire back, making the Ukie batteries too costly for them in their own lives and equipment?
Saker, reprieve is all that is needed. West is toppling before our eyes. East is prepared to soften their fall enough for humanity and planet to keep going. Russia,China and Iran changed their tone and actions in the last week or two. Society bound by prosperity instead of culture, unravel when faced with lack of prosperity. Just a little more time and the cracks will become impossible to ignore.
“everyone in the world seems to be used to the practice of politically motivated, illegal economic sanctions and to certain actors’ brutal attempts to impose their will on others by force. But today, this practice is degenerating into something even more dangerous – I am referring to the recently exposed direct interference in Belarus in an attempt to orchestrate a coup d’état and assassinate the President of that country”
…..”We really do not want to burn bridges. But if someone mistakes our good intentions for indifference or weakness and intends to burn or even blow up these bridges, they must know that Russia’s response will be asymmetrical, swift and tough.”
A real Leader of a Nation speaks to the scum in DC and especially the CIA directly no equivocation – the focus on the Kerch Bridge and continued covet games means the game has reached tilt.
JFK was assassinated for “intending” to cast the CIA to the winds 58 years ago – the game is in place for Iran, China and …Russia to take control back from the scum and finish the job.
The USA defined: C-19 as weapon w gene therapy vaccines in lieu of Birkenau / 911 staged / degenerate low life sub humans in control in lieu of competency / elimination of private property / baby sitting services – no education allowed in schools / no rules – no supreme court / endless war(s) for destruction and profit then leave after twenty years or more – over and over and over again / 58 to 84 IQ valued as – equal?- merely because of FUN in the form of procreation /
these are the epi center of the USA core values and then there is ….Putin and his Partners.
as Kate said to Michael on SI, Todt Hill commenting on Cosa Nostra – “all this must end Michael”
All’s quiet on the (Russian) Western Front save for sporadic shelling in the Donbass at the moment. Continuing misery for Donbass residents but certainly not a large artillery onslaught.
But it seems America’s ZOG, purveyor of death everywhere, never stops.
‘Biden’ has chosen to recognise the ‘Armenian Genocide.’ A more cynical and insincere action is hard to come by at this moment in time — don’t think for a second that Biden cares about Armenians or, indeed, their history. I believe they are actually trying to rekindle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; to inflame the simmering fire right on RF’s doorstep, this time in its south.
How so? Erdogan is almost beside himself with fury and the Armenians are gloating as a result of the declaration. The danger is, Erdogan may just instigate his recently victorious ‘Turkic brothers’ in Azerbaijan to do something provocative in N-K or even Armenia itself in order to show the finger to the US. Perhaps just a small action (via drone, for instance) and nothing major. The trouble is of course things can get out of hand very quickly even if a general conflagaration is not the aim, and this is what ZOG is fervently hoping for. The Empire would love to see a big punch-up between Armenia and Azerbaijan because it puts Russia in a severe quandary — diplomatically, RF needs to strike a delicate balance between the two countries, plus RF has peacekeeping troops in N-K, and a brigade in Armenia; militarily, almost the whole Caspian Flotilla is in the Black Sea. Indeed, should the situation be allowed to develop, RF may find itself confronting Turkey directly — to the Empire’s great delight. Further, recognising the genocide will strengthen Soros’ man, Pashinyan, in the forthcoming Armenian elections — if he’s returned with a bigger majority, RF-Armenian relations may lose its post-Karabakh war ardour.
Even if cooler heads prevail in Ankara (and Baku) — and I’m optimistic they will — and the preceding scenario doesn’t come to pass, the tension has been shifted away from RF’s west to its south. RF has to expend yet again more energy and resources that are better spent elsewhere to ensure the spark provided by ‘Biden’ doesn’t light the inflammable situation in its south, and all the while also keeping an eye on the situation in the west. The net effect is, Russia is extended once more with hardly a moment’s respite.
The Armenian diaspora in the US were lobbying for decades to have the US recognize the Armenian genocide, but the US refused until now because they did not want to offend their NATO allied Turkey.
Biden made the decision to recognize the Armenian genocide because of Turkey’s S-400 deal with Russia, he wanted to punish the Turks. The S-400 gives Turkey the opportunity to have a more neutral foreign policy independent of NATO.
Turkey has already been punished for the S400 deal — it got kicked out of the F35 program and sanctioned, for which it understandably wasn’t happy. This recognition is going to estrange Turkey even further, but to what end? I can only think of two other reasons in addition to the ones I stated above:
a) the tussle for oil in the eastern Med between Turkey and Greece. What’s significant is that Israel has got involved, siding with the Greeks and we all know what that means for US foreign policy controlled by Israel-firsters.
b) ‘Biden’ trying to discipline recalcitrant satraps. We’ve seen that happen with the Wahhabis in Saudi Arabia. Perhaps Erdogan is next in line for being difficult with the US, most of Nato and again, — first and foremost — Israel.
These two are lower down the list because they are not directly disadvantageous to Russia. I say that because the gloves have come off in the US-RF contest and any US action in the ME, Europe, Arctic, etc must necessarily have the object of hurting RF’s interest.
There is only one set of viable outcomes:
— Return Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas to the United States (of Mexico).
— Return Alaska and the Northwest of the 48 stetes to Russia (Including the wineyards of the Napa Valley and Russian River).
— Put Southern Florida under Cuban suzeranity and the rest of that banana-growing republic into a State to be operated by Intourist from their Sevastopol (Crimea) branch office.
— Put out more sturgeons into the Missisippee and Missoury rivers and declare a non.fishing zone for US-ans but only fishing right to Rush.ans so as to feed Kaviar to the ordinary people of Wall Street and of course Canadian Laks to the true orthodox Jewish heights in Brooklyn.
(Solves all problems)
“True peace will only come when the Ukronazis are either dead, or jailed or back in Canada.”
You nailed it, Saker! Ukronazis control the Canadian parliament like AIPAC controls the US Congress & Senate.
It occurs to me that the little tin-pot regimes east of the river Oder may be getting somewhat uncomfortable now that Russia has sent the Ukie Army back to Liviv with its tail between its legs. It has been noted that Neither NATO and its US patron has had any intention of living up to Article 5 of the NATO constitution. Be assured at least that there is no Western European nation which is going to fight a battle for Estonia (except the stupid Brits) or any other of the US client states, even if Article 5 is breached. That being said, Russia has effectively called NATO’s bluff. America and NATO did NOT come to the aid of the Ukraine regime and the Eastern client states must be feeling a little uncomfortable in this situation. It would be adroit to remember that treaties and alliances are not permanently fixed and that situations change. These regimes – Romania for example and Bulgaria for a time – threw in their lot with the Nazis, unfortunately for them the Red Army rolled right over them in 1944. Bad choice of allies. I wonder if they would be minded to make the same stupid policy again.
It seems to me that this is quite a narrow analysis. The recent events in Belarus are not even mentioned and Germany’s position is mentioned, in passing, only once. I think Germany wants to avoid a war in Ukraine at all costs until Nordstream2 is completed. After that, all bets are off. As for Belarus, I believe this is where the US really wants to make serious inroads against Russia. In which case, all the recent Ukrainian sound and fury and the US egging them on there has been an exercise in distracting Russia’s attention away from Belarus where the US was planning its big hit.
Regarding Ukraine’s economy, I would not be so categorical about their demise. At least in GDP terms, Ukraine’s GDP was 159 bil $ en 2020, a steep increase from 2015 (91 bil $). It’s not yet reached the peak of 2013 (183 bil $) but it’s not far off, may have reached it if you discount Donbass.
So it would seem that even with massive emigration, Ukraine managed to achieve growth.
Regarding balance of payments / current account deficit, it should be noted that since end of 2020 Ukraine managed to turn modestly positive, whereas in the previous five years it was negative. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/current-account
The situation is more dark when we look at their gross foreign debt (https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/external-debt) with a sharp increase since beginning of 2021 and a total of 126 bil $, 79% of GDP. The Ukraine is on a dangerous path as it’s dependent on IMF lifelines (i.e. credit) : https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/26/imf-review-ukraine-debt-gdp-linked-warrants-reform/
That’s the most critical part probably, and also the most comical one. Ukronazis were yearning to break off a supposed Russian bondage and gain full sovereignty, but they are now on the hook towards the IMF and its stakeholders, a.k.a. mainly the US of A. And that’s a kind of servage you can’t trifle with…
Errm Ukraine is the poorest country in Europe – fact. Even worse than Moldova and roughly the same level as Uganda (in Africa). The New York ratings agencies S&P, Fitchs and Moody’s rate it at B B and B3. Its Bonds are below investment grade, if we are being polite, Junk Bonds if we are not. It is also bleeding people at the rate of 100,000 per month from a high of 51 million in 1991 to a low of 41 million today. It is kept alive by IMF drip-feeding. Fertility rate has dropped below the 2.1 replacement figure. It has also become deindustralised and now that it has no industry to speak and it is completely in thrall to western agencies like the IMF and World Bank, both of which are bloodsuckers. This means it is totally dependent on transit fees for Russian gas to Germany. Both deficit on overseas trade and government budget deficits are in what appears to be a permanent deficit and no turnaround looks remotely likely.
It would take something like a Marshall Plan to turn this situation around but unsurprisingly no-one, least of all the Americans, are rushing to pick up the tab. It will go on, but then failed states continue to go forward even when they are no longer a functioning state.
do you know approximately the biden’s skim off that transit fee?
Don’t know why the Russians don’t insert special forces into Kiev and spend a few months bumping off the hardcore nazis, oligarchs and warmongers, hit and run style. Wouldn’t take long to whittle the trouble makers down to size. Plausible deniability but really who cares? The delicacies of such moves are unnecessary any longer, the vast majority of ukrainians want an end to the war and are being held hostage by the Nazis and their funders. Ultimately whatever just happened WILL happen again, and again … It was a great run out for the armed forces, lots of lessons learned but again why keep repeating. It is obvious that this situation only continues due to a small group of beneficiaries. afterwards Russia can leave Kiev to itself without invasion, the people can vote for peace and I guarantee wouldn’t vote for any of this EU/NATO nonsense after the way they have turned the country into a failed state in a mere 6 years. A sovereign Ukraine that votes for reconstruction but anti EU anti US and not for military aggression would be ideal, even if it remains in two parts (east and west) Maybe I’m just dreaming.
“The US is still scrambling to try to retake control of an international situation which has clearly gone totally out of hand for the wannabe world Hegemon. Even more importantly, the internal situation of the USA is truly critical with many very serious crises occurring simultaneously”.
I am reminded of Arnold Toynbee’s comments on the sudden and utterly unexpected fall of the Assyrian Empire in 614-610 BC after more than a thousand years of domination.
“The disaster in which the Assyrian military power met its end in 614-610 B.C. was even more overwhelming than those which overtook the Macedonian phalanx in 197 and 168 B.C. or the Roman legions in 53 B.C. and A.D. 378 or the Egyptian Mamluks in A.D. 1516-17… the disaster which was the end of the Assyrian military power capped the destruction of the Assyrian war-machine with the extinction of the Assyrian state and the extermination of the Assyrian people. In 614-610 B.C. a community which had been in existence for more than two thousand years, and had been playing an ever more dominant part in South-Western Asia over a period of some two and a half centuries, was blotted out almost completely”.
– Arnold Toynbee, “War and Civilization”
An article in politros.com says that, while the Russian troops have been pulled from the border, the hardware is being kept only 300 km away, at Pogonovo.
Just be aware that NATO knows very well that they are not ready for this kind of conflict with Russia right now. However they are preparing for it in the future.
A small country as Denmark has a task of preparing a rapid deployment, totally autonomous, mechanized brigade of 4000 men, by 2024.
Many other NATO countries have similar plans.
Wow! 4000 Danes. I’m sure the Russians will take about 2 and half minutes to turn them into ashes.
You don’t understand the firepower of the 2021 Russian military.
40,000 NATO read to go into action just backed down on land, sea and air.
NATO needs 150,000 Americans on their front lines to fight the Russians. That will never happen because the US doesn’t want to lose half those troops in hours. Which is what will happen.
The West is delusional. They are wasting their money building up NATO for a war with Russia. They will lose the war and most of their military and infrastructure assets.
This is why the Ukies are screwed. They bet the house on NATO and the US coming and winning their war in Donbass for Kiev. It hasn’t and won’t ever happen. Same thing with the Poles wet dream of taking Kaliningrad. There would be no Poland when that war ended. And it would end fast, as the Polish war exercises proved to themselves.
Life is not a video game and war is not about wishful thinking. Russia will win the wars. That’s why there is very little chance of war.
Shoigu built Putin’s military so no one can defeat it and the result is no one can attack it.
and listen at the 1 minute mark, the general is admitting pentagon defeat on tv.
the fox spin of russian aggression is the usual bullshit but here it is on national tv.
we are powerless to deal with russian weapons systems now and for a long time to come IF EVER so give us more money.
imagine how the feckless europeans must feel?
Missing Russian submarine the ‘Rostov-on-Don’ from Kilo class (Project 636.3) is making the US and friends very nervous. This is the same submarine that fired submarine Calibre cruise missiles at Syria and everyone is frantic to find except the Russians who are in contact.
They call Rostov-on-Don the ‘Black Hole’ for a reason, she was able to disappear while being shadowed. Good show Russia. In this case a bird in the bush is worth a lot of birds in the hand.
Russian Attack Sub Reportedly Disappears From NATO Radars in the Mediterranean© Sputnik / ???? ???????
18:48 GMT 19.03.2021(updated 19:22 GMT 19.03.2021)
by Ilya Tsukanov
Sputnik’s source noted that while NATO enjoys major capabilities in the Mediterranean, the Russian submarine’s ability to evade their systems has exceeded all expectations, and may have caused frustration among alliance forces. “They have used large forces to search for the Russian sub, but to no avail. This means that in conditions of hostilities, they are in the crosshairs, and this bothers them tremendously,” the source suggested.
Varshavyankas are armed with 18 torpedoes and eight SAM missiles, and can be fitted with Kalibr land-attack and anti-ship cruise missiles (the Rostov-on-Don is one of them).
Just possibly this submarine plays a part in Russian Navy escorting Iranian tankers in convoy to Syria, which is reported, > https://theduran.com/moscow-breaks-us-blockade-of-syria-destroys-militant-base/
Convoy escort may be tracked by NATO subs. Subs hunt subs… I’ll leave it there. No sub commander wants his “stern” available to Ivan, eh? (except maybe the UK, they say it’s traditional)
“the low intellectual abilities of US decision makers,” – you are being too kind.
“True peace will only come when the Ukronazis are either dead, or jailed or back in Canada.” I’m Canadian and yes it is true, sadly. I don’t want them back which leaves the other two options.
Three US military bases should appear in Ukraine by Autumn, including a naval base. They will then have F16s, F35s flying all over Ukraine. The Biden-Putin summit is just a way of buying time for the US to prepare those bases.
War is coming make no mistake.
Those 3 bases and the airplanes may be planned by one party, but that plan probably creates another plan by another party, which would be to prevent them. These sure seem to be “provocations”…so whether or not they get built is up to precisely whom? Right. One suppose some delusional persons want yet another Caribbean Crises.
One makes an anode, the other the cathode. Can’t be otherwise. Some people imagine differently.
That looks to be an error. The three bases and one naval base belong in Norway not Ukraine. This is probably for US Arctic access which is unfortunately too late as Russia anticipated and countered with the Murmansk-BN system.
‘Three US military bases should appear in Ukraine by Autumn, including a naval base. They will then have F16s, F35s flying all over Ukraine.’
This is of little consequence as the US is a decade behind Russia in weaponry in all aspects-tech, legacy, ‘Death Zones’ and so forth.
Norway to allow US to build military facilities on its soil in new pact
Iran Press TV
Saturday, 17 April 2021 6:12 AM
The government further noted that the accord between the two founding NATO members will let the American military build facilities in three Norwegian air bases and one of its naval facilities, which would not constitute separate US bases.
How to protect the Arctic Russian style
‘Death Zones’: Russian military creating system to make areas of airspace inaccessible to foreign missiles and drones, reports say
RSSRSSApr 22, 2021 – 18:270n
Russia’s electronic warfare specialists will practice creating ‘protection areas’ in the country’s airspace that could render foreign satellite navigation systems completely useless, disabling an enemy’s high-precision weapons.
According to Moscow daily Izvestia, citing a source in the Defense Ministry, radio-electronic warfare troops will practice using the technology during exercises this year, with the practice to be held nationwide in 2022.
The system, known as Field-21, creates interference that disorients foreign satellite navigation systems, including the American GPS NAVSTAR. According to experts, the creation of special zones could be used to protect military facilities, as well as industrial areas, making the airspace virtually impenetrable. They believe the new approach will radically increase national security.
With satellite navigation foiled, enemy high-precision weapons and drones will not be able to direct themselves towards their target.
Putin says Russia developing high-tech nuclear & laser weapons, warning ‘provocateurs’ will regret crossing country’s red lines
“Electronic warfare systems hit several cruise missile systems at once,” military historian Dmitry Boltenkov told Izvestia. “Satellite navigation interference causes them to get ‘lost’ in space and dramatically reduces their accuracy. If the radio altimeter signal is suppressed, the ammunition will also not be able to perform its combat mission as expected.”
Radio-electronic troops have already been deployed in Syria, where an electronic warfare protection dome has been created over the areas of Tartus and Khmeimim, protecting the military from attacks by militant drones. Russia has been involved in the Syrian Civil War since 2015, when it was invited by the Damascus government, led by President Bashar Assad, to help fight against a terrorist insurgency in the country.
In Russia’s Far North, the powerful Murmansk-BN system has been deployed on the Arctic coast, and is capable of interfering with the communication, navigation, and control systems of ships, submarines, and aircraft illegally crossing the border. In March 2019, the Norwegian Defense Ministry officially complained to Moscow, stating that the jamming technology is affecting security in Norway’s own air space.
Here’s a good link to the Ukies role in Canada and how they came about.
Freeland is now Canada’s Finance Minister. We’re lucky we have a Political Science Major directing monetary policy… We’re so doomed.
I dont want ukronazies back in canada.
Also, as a bilingual nation, what a farce that my government supports one language group versus another in another country.
The ukronazi actions are akin to if french was banned in Canada.
Our media did a good job of hiding this duplicity in our foreign policy.
So if the anglo ukro nazis will do that in europe, what stopping them from clamping down on the french here in Canada?
I must be a putin troll for thinking this way…LOL
To all my Canadian friends: I totally understand you.
I also favor the other two options :-)
There could be one clean way out for uKraine : it’s a military coup accompanied by a swift purge of the nazi battalions…
Another option could be a southbound push along the right bank of the Dniepr river west of Kiev from Belarussia by ‘little green men’ (Mazyr->Korosten->Jitomir->Vinnitsia->Tiraspol->Odessa), all below electronic and air supremacy umbrella from Russia proper.
Or both at once …
Resulting in a North-Western Ukraine under Minsk rule and a greater Novorossyia until Moldavia under Moscow rule.
I like your another option.
All black sea should be banned for zionazis, but in particular ukrainian coast, from mariupol to odessa.
I even think, from the conversation i had with friends that fled from odessa, tha the majority of the residents, in particular if we include those that already fled, rather be under r. F. Umbrella than ukrayna.
It would make all the sense from a tactical pov. Land bridges are the better bridges.
Mr Saker, sir:
Is it possible the F-22 and F-35 are proving to be insufficiently stealthy? If that were the case, and also that the USAF knows but haven’t told the State Department, I can see a situation where the State Dept. wanted to play chicken but were warned off, at the last minute, by military.
“Stealth” is mostly a trick to make expensive aircraft, it is not a war fighting strategy which can be used against peer (or, I would argue, superior) powers like Russia.
The F-117 could not handle old Soviet air defenses in Yugoslavia.
The B-1 is a pretty good all purpose bomber, it can do quite a few things, but its operating costs are horrible. Ditto for its MTBF.
Forget the B-2, the price alone makes the bang for the buck atrocious.
The F-22 is a very good fighter, but it has a small capacity and, crucially, is now detectable by Russian system.
The F-35 is a total clusterfuck.
There is a very good reason why the US is now developing the F-15X which looks like a very promising and effective platform.
Finally, the Su-57 has several DIFFERENT radars operating DIFFERENT frequencies and an electo-optical system. All the date from these sensors are fused with data coming form other sources meaning that low-RCS aircraft are all threatened. There have already been several cases of US F-22 having to leave over Syria due to them being intercepted by Su-35s.
Still, low-RCS is, of course, desirable. It’s just not a magic technology and putting all eggs into this one basket was a HUGE mistake for the US.
Earlier in this thread you wrote:
“There may be a way to finish off Ukraine that Putin has in his mind.
So far, no analyst has come up with the specifics of such a plan, much less Putin’s timetable for such an action.”
Rostislav Ishchenko published such a plan two days ago – or if it’s not a real plan then he at least showed some possible levers for Russia and ways the Russian leadership can connect them. Actually Russia has in parts already started acting this way…
Zelensky: A lost chance and Russia’s problems
On Russian https://ukraina.ru/opinion/20210424/1031228888.html
Translated into English with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator
To begin with, let’s define what tasks Russia has solved with a military demonstration near its western borders. The armed forces have demonstrated their ability to defeat any grouping that the collective West (including the US) is capable of assembling on the European continent in the shortest possible time. The West was shown that by the 7th-10th day of the operation (during which time even the first echelons of “tolerant” armies would not have time to deploy) Russia is capable of creating a multiple superiority over the West in conventional weapons anywhere in the European theatre of war (the theatre of operations). Under conventional armaments, this is a decisive advantage, which ensures a lightning victory.
This means that without the use of nuclear weapons, the West cannot stop the Russian army from moving until it stops on its own or reaches the Atlantic. In the event of a nuclear strike, however, the U.S. would automatically be drawn into a conflict that it had hoped to remain outside, despite Putin’s threat to strike at the centres of decisionmaking.
This state of affairs has seriously sobered up some of the pro-American politicians in Western Europe. If until now they thought that a “European war” with Russia would end up in the worst-case scenario for their countries with the defeat of Poland, it is now clear to them that their job will not be limited to “condemning the aggressor” and sanctions, they will have to pack their bags and flee across the ocean in a hurry (if the Russian air force allows them to evacuate).
Western Europe has become subdued and has begun to ask loudly for peace. And peace was granted. Russia reiterated its willingness to resolve all contentious issues through negotiations but warned of the dangers of crossing the “red lines” drawn by Moscow.
It was indeed a brilliant peace blitzkrieg, conducted under absolute time pressure. It was clear from the outset that two armies and three airborne units could not sit idly in field camps on the western border for long. They must either be used for their intended purpose or sent to their permanent deployment sites. That is, in order to make an indelible impression on the Europeans, Russia had a maximum of one month. They managed to do it in half that time. The threat of the Americans provoking a big European war in the near future has been substantially minimized (it is impossible to remove it completely in the current circumstances) without firing a single shot.
However, Russia’s strategic task – fighting for Europe – has not been solved. Moreover, there is every reason to believe that the US will still try to organize a military provocation, although it can no longer count on the previous scale. What gives us reason to think so?
Firstly, we can see that despite the failure of the plot against Lukashenko and the conciliatory rhetoric of the Belarusian authorities, who expressed their readiness for constructive cooperation (if the West would stop tyrannizing them), US policy towards Belarus has not changed one bit.
If they wanted to take a break, they would have “heard” Lukashenka’s statements about the non-alternative multi-vector policy for Belarus and would have responded constructively to Makey’s question about what exactly the US ambassador, to whom the Belarusian authorities have not yet issued a visa, was going to do in Minsk. Washington has done so many times before (and not only in Belorussia) – it went for seeming softening of rhetoric and improvement of relations, knowing very well that a “promising democrat” deserving encouragement could be at any moment declared a “bloody dictator” deserving destruction. But the Americans maintained a tough stance on Minsk and declared through the mouth of the ambassador to Belarus, “accredited” in Lithuania under Tihanova, that the days of the Minsk regime are numbered. That is, they will try to set Belarus on fire in the near future, despite the failure of the “May 9 plot”.
The situation in Ukraine is developing in a similar way. There, the Ukrainian army is conducting provocative “drills” on the border with Crimea just as Russian troops who arrived for reinforcement are preparing to return to their places of permanent deployment. At the same time, shelling of Donbas is intensifying. Zelensky and all members of his team, without exception, make provocative statements about Russia and Donbass.
In Europe, the Americans have mobilized the Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Baltics for a second wave of expulsion of Russian diplomats. Naturally, Russia will respond with even harsher measures.
All this paints a picture of Washington’s desire, after the failure of its pan-European war plan, to go for a light-hearted version of the conflict. The US will clearly try to organize at least some armed clashes in Belarus, as well as to unfreeze the military conflict in Donbass. As Eastern Europe, despite the servility of local politicians, is unlikely to be drawn into such a conflict without a 100% guarantee of support from the rest of the West, it is clearly destined to play the role of political scandaliser. At least a number of Eastern European countries have come so close to severing diplomatic relations with Moscow that they no longer view it as unthinkable. Moreover, they will be glad that they can limit themselves to political demarches and not go to war.
Why should Washington do that?
Russia and Germany have stated with confidence that Nord Stream 2 will be completed this year. Experts believe it will happen as early as summer, but even if the construction is delayed until the end of the year, there is little time left to block the project. And then it will be too late “to drink Borjomi”.
The U.S. simply does not have time to rework the pan-European war plan that has guaranteed to derail the project. They have to work with what they have. They are acting according to Napoleon’s advice: “We must get into the fight, and then we will see. Of course, organizing anti-Lukashenko partisanship in Belarus is not the same as a full scale civil war, complicated by Polish-Baltic intervention. But Washington reasonably expects that the bandits will not be captured instantly, at least for a couple of months they will be able to give the impression of “armed resistance”.
Similarly, the Americans may hope that a gradual, sluggish unfolding of hostilities in Donbass will lead to a prolonged Russian response. Consequently, for some time (at least a week) the war will be full-fledged and Russia will not yet erase Ukraine from the political map. Moreover, it should be kept in mind that Americans in their assessment of the situation in Ukraine traditionally rely on the opinion of Ukrainian “experts” as well as their own descendants of the Banderites, who have monopolised the Ukrainian issue at the CIA and the State Department. This public tends to exaggerate Ukraine’s ability to confront Russia. So the US can also count on the fact that even after Moscow’s active intervention, the Ukrainian army will simulate resistance for at least three or four days (before scattering), and that several tens of thousands of radical Nazis will go underground and become partisans, stretching the active phase of resistance for another couple of months.
During all this time, the East Europeans mobilised by the US should continue their diplomatic covenant, up to and including severing diplomatic relations with Moscow and pressuring EU and NATO structures as well as France and Germany to demonstrate pan-European solidarity and take tough action against Moscow.
If the crisis in the light version manages to start in May and last for two or three months, even if it is not possible to completely block the completion of NSP2, the Americans may try to procrastinate until winter storms, thus postponing the launch of the pipeline for another year and getting additional time to fight it, including the preparation of more extensive provocations. But the maximal agenda remains the same – to bring the crisis to a maximum degree and, against this background, to force Western Europe to completely disengage from cooperation with Russia.
Washington, which is in a hurry, is acting quite openly, so there is no reason to believe that Moscow does not understand what the US plans for the near future are. Consequently, Moscow is also preparing its counter-aggression. There is a risk involved, as it is already clear that the US will succeed in igniting military action (at least in the Ukrainian direction alone). In this case, the final reaction of Western Europe will depend on many small nuances of developments, each of which is impossible to foresee.
Hence, the least risky option for Moscow is to end the conflict immediately, so that no one in the West can make a peep. Moreover, the ending should create a new contingency for the West, in which the Europeans (and probably the Americans as well) will be so preoccupied with the new political reality that they will have no time to block NSP2.
I don’t know what the Kremlin will come up with this time, but from my point of view one of the effective options for solving the problem could be the instant (within days) destruction of Ukraine without creating its official successor.
Firstly, as long as Ukraine exists, there is also a springboard for anti-Russian provocations. And the Americans, after another lull, are using it again to provoke a pan-European conflict. That is the only reason why they are keeping Kiev in a state of half-decay so far, not allowing this zombie-state to disappear for good. Since the Ukrainian authorities have convinced the Americans over the last seven years that Kiev cannot be a serious counterbalance to Russia, it is not a shame to burn it down in a one-time conflict – the main thing is to benefit from it. So sooner or later they will make Kiev go to war, and the situation may not be as convenient for Russia as it is now.
Of course, Zelensky could have avoided the worst if he had accepted Putin’s offer, gone to Moscow for talks, stopped provocations in Donbass and started the real implementation of the Minsk agreements, but it has long been clear that he fears his thugs and the Americans more than war, so the chance for a peaceful resolution of the crisis is irrevocably lost.
Secondly, if Ukraine is split up between neighbouring states (with or without a nominal sovereign flake) and if a dozen or so ‘people’s republics’ replace Ukraine, there will be a problem of Ukrainian debt. A combined foreign debt of more than a hundred billion dollars is not an amount that respectable people are willing to sacrifice. In that case the problem of debt will become a priority issue compared to the problem of NSP2. There will be influential forces in the West interested in taking part in legitimizing the post-Ukrainian reality, in exchange for settling the debt problem. Russia will have the easiest time in this regard. Kiev is not going to pay its debts to Moscow anyway. So Russia can calmly give up what it will never get anyway, leaving others to sort out amongst themselves who owes what to whom and how much for Ukraine.
If one assumes that the conflict will be limited to localising Ukraine’s offensive in the Donbass, then heavy fighting with heavy casualties among personnel, including platoon and company officers, must be planned. In such a case, early graduation from military schools often takes place and the Donbass would clearly benefit from extra cadets.
However, if we assume that Ukraine is being prepared for a blitzkrieg in which its armed forces will be destroyed before they come into full contact with the DNR/LNR militia corps, everything falls into place. It is clear that after such a conflict, Donbass will never again be Ukrainian. Moreover, it is practically integrated into Russia in every respect, and the passportization of the population, as the Crimea experience has shown, can be completed in a year or two if necessary.
Let’s be frank, the armies of the Donbass are not just unnecessary to Russia, they are in every respect critically below the level of the Russian Armed Forces. Integrating DNR/LNR servicemen en masse into the Russian Armed Forces would pose a serious problem for the Russian army. At the same time, defending additional territory with available Russian army forces would not pose much of a problem.
Thus, assuming that Russia is preparing to dramatically change the strategic situation on its western borders, it simply does not need extra graduates of Donbas “officers”, the fate of the existing ones, of which 160 have already graduated and from two hundred to three hundred are still being prepared for graduation (studying in 2-4 courses) is yet to be decided.
Since Russia recognizes Donetsk educational documents and young people who chose a military profession during the war deserve respect, it would be humane to allow those who have already been accepted to the school to complete their studies (possibly by transferring them to other Russian military institutions) and dissolve the 350-450 young officers from the DNR/LNR who may wish to continue their military career in the Russian armed forces. The expediency of the existence of the military school itself in such a case is clearly questionable, as the RF Armed Forces can cope with the provision of officers with the existing personnel.
Thus, a whole series of trifles leads us to the idea that the fate of Ukraine has been decided in principle. It is now a question of choosing the right time for its implementation. Exactly the time, because Kiev has given enough reasons for war. And it will not rest, it will provide such occasions every day.
As for the specific date of the operation, its depth and the post-Ukrainian structure of the territory currently under Kiev’s control, no one can foresee it. The Kremlin always delights in this regard with pleasant surprises, driving Western “friends and partners” to a nervous breakdown by its politeness.
Ishchenko is a brilliant analyst. I read everyone of his posts immediately.
I see nothing in the article about how to do it.
I know he has no military training as a strategist, planner or operations guy.
So, it would be silly to look to him for specifics.
Keep in perspective your gleanings from analysts. They never are close to being inside the geopolitical thought process or military plans. Not for Russia. Maybe the US or NATO uses erudite amateurs.
They are sometimes close enough to be talked to and used to put out some Info.
Read his column today and he demonstrates a comedic talent I never saw in the years of reading him.
But it also shows what the state of the matter is today. Ishchenko writes a laugh piece. Where’s the war?
We are back to the cynical black comedy of Banderastan where nazis are paid by Jews to kill whoever needs to be killed (often other Jews and very rarely nazis).
The cancer of Kiev is still there, growing by the day and in need of surgery to remove the tumor and diseased cells.
There is a bigger picture on the wall in the Russian Situation Room (don’t know the name of the Kremlin’s equivalent). It is NATO and the US. That’s what this is all about. Ukraine is just a malignancy, not important enough to waste one pint of Russian blood or fire one bullet toward.
What Ishchenko hints at is the Ukie bombardments could be cause enough for Russia to act.
It would take a lot more artillery from the Ukies (there have been days of 100-200 shells hitting Donbass) for Russia to act. It would take demonstrable drone and satellite images of a full frontal assault, a piercing of the lines and a drive toward Donetsk and Lugansk. Or sabotage of the Kerch Bridge or some Crimean infrastructure. In other words, it would take a blatant act of war by the Ukies.
You think the US will encourage that? They will lose Ukraine forever in 36 hours. What will they gain? Nothing.
So look for a blatant act of war by the Ukies. This will be what the Russians need to legally wipe out Ukraine.
RE:Larchmonter445 on April 26, 2021 · at 4:58 pm EST/EDT
“Ishchenko is a brilliant analyst.”
I know he has no military training as a strategist, planner or operations guy.
So, it would be silly to look to him for specifics.
Keep in perspective your gleanings from analysts. They never are close to being inside the geopolitical thought process or military plans. Not for Russia.”
It appears you continue not to follow your own advice including by:
” This will be what the Russians need to legally wipe out Ukraine.”
within which you imply that not only do you understand the purposes and strategies of the Russian Federation, but also the tactics that the Russian Federation need to implement to achieve them.
Mr. Mavrodi and MMM had an educational role to play in 1994.
So thank you for your co-operation in illustrating some of the contents in the Petri dish of the opponents’ culture.
Again, I recall LaRouche´s premonitory words: “Only Russia´s dismemberment can save the US $”. The Judeo-Zionist Money Printing House will do all things possible, short of nuclear war, to preserve the reserve status of “their” money, aka the American Dollar. The day is not far away when the US military will be asked to go & do its job by “defending the means by which our American way of life is preserved”, aka to live at the expense of the rest of the world!
Woe, if one hasn’t seen this be sure you do!!! This is huge. It deals with Russia, Afghanistan, National Security and the Media and all their lies to try and influence so many things.
Lots and lots of juicy details.
The situation for Russia is a Victory situation. There are no scenarios in this region where Russia can lose. Russia will just have to deal with the usual crap from the collective mess until they fold.
“[Sidebar: I have seen some “experts” saying that since the Ukrainians have laid down a very large number of mines they are clearly not going to attack since they would lose time – and possibly men – to cross these minefields. First, there is no way of knowing if these mines are real or fake (many mines also have a timer anyway) but, second, more crucially: an attacking force always wants to concentrate in one specific location of the line of contact, which means that the attacking forces has to not only attack, but also protect herself from enemy counter-attacks: minefields are very effective at providing this sort of protection. The “defensive” moves can, and do, in reality, form an integral part of any offensive plans]”
I can’t follow this. How can an advancing force avoid the land mines?
Landmines are supposed to be mapped, recorded and marked by the party who laid them, according to international conventions.
If possible, the advancing force could take a detour around the minefield. If not, and this is usually the case, they’ll just have to create a path through the field using specialised equipment — mine-clearing tanks, explosives, etc.
As an observation, there have been reports of Ukrainian soldiers being killed by their own mines, perhaps while doing demining work, clearly indicating a lack of professionalism.
“..Several mechanical methods for clearing mines were tried. Heavy rollers attached to tanks or cargo trucks, but they did not last long and their weight made the tanks considerably slower. Tanks and bulldozers pushed ploughs that in turn pushed aside any mines to a depth of 30 cm. The Bangalore torpedo, a long thin tube filled with explosives, was invented in 1912 and used to clear barbed wire. Larger versions such as the Snake and the Conger were developed but were not very effective. One of the best options was the flail, which chains with weights on the end attached to rotating drums. The first version, the Scorpion, was attached to the Matilda tank and used in the Second Battle of El Alamein. The Crab, attached to the Sherman tank, was faster (2 kilometers per hour); it was used during D-Day and the aftermath..”
From Wikipedia article “Land Mines”
Do not cross this red line
Russia ‘successfully tested’ the A-235 PL-19 Nudol missile in Kazahstan Monday Aims to take out missiles at a range of 250 miles, and an altitude of 31 miles Comes as Polish Defence Minister claims Putin aims to rebuild the tsarist empire Suggested President Putin plans to takeover Poland, Lithuania, Lativa, Estonia .Russia announced the pull back of troops from the Ukrainian border last week Over 100,000 soldiers were deployed to the region ostensibly for a mass drill Russia has ‘successfully’ tested a massive new missile designed to blast US nukes out of the sky as it continues its display of military prowess – despite announcing a partial troop pullback from areas bordering Ukraine. The trial of the new weapon, believed to be called the A-235 PL-19 Nudol, took place at the Sary Shagan test site in Kazakhstan. 0:00 / 0:00 Read More Major General Sergei Grabchuk, commander of the anti-missile defence unit of the Aerospace Forces, told Russian journalists that the anti-ballistic missile accurately hit its target. It is designed to prevent a nuclear attack on the Kremlin and Moscow, as well as key Russian industrial regions, according to reports in Russia. The defence shield aims to take out incoming enemy missiles at a range of up to 250 miles, and an altitude of 31 miles.
So better of to leave embassies and diplomats of Polish and Baltic ministers in place to sweat out their russophobia and look stupid..or send ’em home…..?
This story is far from over.
According to sputnik blinken will go to the ukraine next month.
Escalation could thus happen at the end of May or the beginning of June.
If Ukraine are really Nazi’s, meaning that they are anti-Jew removed. Mod. But since the U.S. is controlled by Jews and Israel, why is the U.S. supporting Ukraine? This does not make any sense.
Very brief reply (not to sully the topic thread). There were and are Jewish nazis. See http://www.thehypertexts.com/Albert%20Einstein%201948%20Letter%20New%20York%20Times%20Nakba.htm
Albert Einstein and many others’ letter to NYT 1948
I am surprised that no one I have seen has yet mentioned the option of detonating the Ukrainian power keg, if worse comes to worse and Russia has to intervene directly to break the Ukrainian military.
The way this could be done is really very simple:
* Surround the Ukrainian attacking forces using airborne troops and area denial weapons, and force their surrender.
* Use previously collected intelligence and surveillance of the captives to identify and remove the militant Ukonazis.
* Provide the rest of the captives with small arms and old school busses and send them home to do what they want.
At one level this would be a very irresponsible thing to do – it could result in a profound revolution like that of 1917, and given that (as I believe you observed) the Ukraine Communist Party is the only truly national party in Ukraine (and the only one organized for survival under conditions of illegality,) they would likely organize and lead it. Their central task, as in 1917, would be organizing the people to restore public safety and some kind of production, distribution of essential commodities and restoration of essential services. Communists have a long history of being good at that. Then would come organizing the militias and reorganizing what’s left of the army to resist invasion by Poland, Hungary, Romania and God knows who else.
All the Eastern European kleptocrats would go into a panic. Probably a lot of Russian oligarchs would too. But would it be irresponsible? The Russian leadership might not be worrying about being responsible at this point. After all, they must be asking, just who is it they should be responsible to in this catastrophic situation that the US and its allies have foisted on them?
No comments, as expected.
This scenario seemed like an obvious possibility to me in 2014. It’s apparently orthogonal to the thinking of the readers of this list. Too bad.
Will youall still be on the side of the Ukraine people if something like starts to unfold?
As there is no consensus in NATO( France+ Germany), the US will simply go it alone in UKR, installing three major bases(one naval Odessa, one in Galicia and one in central Ukraine). Of course we will reach and cross the Putin ‘red lines’, but will Putin choose to keep NS2 against an US and then NATO free ukraine?I believe he will loose both anyway if it does not take decisive action. It is no surprise as neocons always double down, next step Barbarosa 2.0, but later.
It was forseen since 2014 and there was no intervention after the Odessa massacre, it was just a matter of time. The idiotic idea that UKR would collapse by implosion was naive. In 2014 the people were almost not brainwashed in neo nazi ideology(except in Galicia). The maidan was a coup not a natural uprising against anything russian, the plotters were CIA/MI6, galicians, georgian snipers and a few mercenaries from the Baltics.
7 years later it is another story, even with the real economic collapse of the country.Clever non extremists ukrainians already left by millions.Just remain hardliners and mediumliners let’ say.
Letting US or NATO at russian border would mean the end of Russia as we know it(after Putin departure and or death) or even before.
It is better to fight now, later it will be to late to deal with ‘our partners and friends’.
This is what brings a weak policy.
It did not avoid sanctions forever, Donbass genocide, more safety for Russia to the contrary and and never seen before level of russophobia via various fake psyops(skripal, Navalny, attacks in Syria, Putin is a killer, Belarus failed coup,for the moment…)
The fake drill last week and Russia departure from the front is seen as a victory in Kiev, London, D C etc…as a sign to double down even more, as Russia lost, they are weak
The summit proposal by Biden is to win time, to proceed with the buiding of US bases. They don’t even hide it in their msm.
Somehow, I have an idea that stationing U.S. forces or advanced weaponry in Ukraine is one of those hidden ‘red lines’ that Putin mentioned in his speech last week. Didn’t Putin also say, “When a fight becomes unavoidable you must, without hesitation, throw the first punch”?
I predict that the Ukraine issue will be resolved in the next 12 months.
Once NS2 is completed the pipeline going through Ukraine will not supply gas to Europe and so Ukraine will lose income which has to be made up by the US and friends. And Ukraine itself will not get any gas unless it agrees to pay in advance which it cannot do.
This means that the US will have to supply LNG shipped from the US. The US is unlikely to do this. Thus it will demonstrate to the Ukrainians that neither the US or EU is willing to back them up militarily (as we have just seen) or financially.
An Ukrainian winter without gas will get them back in line.
Czechs Row Back Claims In Russia Expulsions War as The Bear Bares Its Teeth
Alexander Mercouris —
Alex provides a wealth of important background info about this situation in Czech. If you have watched
Putin 2, you will realize how Russia maintained a similar spy office office inside Germany when it was still a divided country — and you saw how Putin, as a young intelligence officer, handled a similar situation.
From Tass; Syria backs Russia’s countering West’s attempts to aggravate situation in world
— and thanks Russia for ‘alleviating’ the blockade.
Hola estimado The Saker!
Quería compartile un artículo de un gran analista internacional mexicano-libanés: Alfredo Jalife.
No sé si puedo publicar todo el texto completo en español o si yandex lo traducirá bien al inglés. Espero que si. Si no esta permitido colocar el texto completo por lo menos el link seria muy enriquecedor.
Bajo la lupa
Putin pospuso su opción nuclear de cambio de época y negocia con Biden by the time being
Sobre el cambio de época del zar Vlady Putin que había anunciado en forma dramática Russia Today (https://bit.ly/3gD8n3w).
Tampoco se trató de un parto de los montes –“ Parturient montes, nascetur ridiculus mus” (parirán los montes; nacerá un ridículo ratón) poeta satírico Horacio dixit”–. Un día después al 21, Putin participó en la cumbre virtual sobre el cambio climático que convocó Joe Biden y a la que asistió finalmente el mandarín Xi Jinping.
Putin pospuso su opción nuclear sobre la salida de Rusia del sistema internacional de pagos Swift y la desdolarización que habían insinuado el canciller Sergei Lavrov y el portavoz del Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov.
Tampoco hay que tomar a la ligera la sumaria advertencia del zar Vlady Putin para que Occidente ( Whatever that means) no se atreva a cruzar las líneas rojas (¡mega-sic!) trazadas por Rusia y que la hermenéutica china juzgó como una advertencia a Occidente de una severa respuesta a sus actos hostiles (https://bit.ly/3njgKT1).
Pese a la loable desescalada en Donbass por el presidente comediante (literal) ucranio, Volodímir Zelensky, marioneta del MI6 en su suicida confrontación teledirigida contra Rusia (https://bit.ly/3sXuPHj), dos días después a la participación de Putin en la Cumbre sobre el cambio climático, el ex presidente Dmitry Medvedev –el más occidental del poderoso clan de San Petersburgo– comentó que las relaciones de Moscú con Estados Unidos se encuentran a su más bajo nivel, similar a la crisis de los misiles en Cuba en 1962, que han girado de la rivalidad a una franca confrontación (https://bit.ly/3erK8m5), que ha llevado a una inestabilidad permanente.
Medvedev expuso la organizada campaña de acoso contra Rusia, que se condensa en la oposición de Estados Unidos al oleoducto NordStream 2 y a su continua desestabilización en Ucrania. Medvedev juzga que la “inestable política exterior de Washington se debe tanto a razones domésticas ( sic)” como al declive de la autoridad estadunidense como líder del mundo occidental.
El discurso de Putin fue duro, pero no llegó a la ruptura prevista. Expuso la interferencia directa en Bielorrusia en un intento de orquestar un golpe de Estado y asesinar a su presidente, muy similar a lo que sufrió el ex mandatario de Ucrania Viktor Yanukovych –quien estuvo a punto de ser asesinado y fue defenestrado del poder con un golpe de Estado–, mediante un masivo ciberataque para paralizar la infraestructura de Minsk, sus comunicaciones y su sistema eléctrico (https://bit.ly/3aC7cxD).
Putin se mofó del “nuevo deporte ( sic) de ver quién vocifera más fuerte contra Rusia”, a la que endosan todos los pecados sin razón alguna y advirtió que la respuesta de Moscú sería asimétrica, rápida y severa: quienes amenacen los intereses básicos de la seguridad rusa lo lamentarán de una manera que no lo han sentido en un largo periodo. Putin expresó que Rusia está “en estado de combate (¡mega- sic!)” con sus avanzadas armas hipersónicas y no ocultó que esa nación ya es líder en la creación de sistemas de combate de nueva generación y en el desarrollo de las fuerzas nucleares modernas.
Si se escudriñan las líneas rojas de Putin, sumada de la disquisición de Medvedev, a mi juicio, resultaron mucho peores que un cambio de época sobre la salida del sistema de pagos Swift y su desdolarización, que pudo haber sido en forma pacífica y gradual.
Por fortuna, dos días antes del fatídico 21 de abril, Jake Sullivan, asesor de Seguridad Nacional de Biden, se comunicó con su homólogo Nikolai Patrushev, secretario del Consejo de Seguridad de Rusia y muy cercano a Putin, con el fin de “discutir un número de temas de la situación bilateral como asuntos regionales y globales de preocupación ( sic)”, y el prospecto de una cumbre presidencial entre Washington y Moscú (https://bit.ly/3gxXaRP).
Las líneas rojas de Putin denotan la hipersensibilidad de la confrontación de Estados Unidos contra Rusia y pueden desencadenar en cualquier momento una tercera guerra mundial nuclear.
South Africa is imminent to become the next “Ukraine” in a tug of war between the UK and China and their proxies inside.
The real difficulty I see with Europe right now is an inability to evaluate calmly the truths about Russia, the USA, the UK and France/Germany and actually back it up with actions consistent with being a sovereign nation.
Of course, being subsumed into the ‘EU’ means you are no longer a sovereign nation, which is a problem because the EU is a bunch of US c**ksuckers who do what they are told. German business leaders certainly don’t want half the things done that Uncle Schmuel is pressurising the EU satrapy to do, and Nordstream II may be the hair that breaks the camel’s back in that regard.
It is non-negotiable that the USA wants to force expensive US LNG on Western Europe by banning trade with Russia for much cheaper natural gas, a reliable supplier of European gas needs for several decades now. That is the only proof an honest judge needs to rule that the USA does not believe in free trade and is unfit to sit in the G7, the WTO or any other organisation which promotes ‘rule-based trade’ (the USA refuses to obey any rules that they did not make up themselves and which do not retain their unwarranted hegemony).
It is also non-negotiable that large numbers of the European peoples (not the politicians, who arse lick for a living) don’t want the US military resident in Europe any more. They know that trading with Russia is the surest way to prevent any ‘threat from the East’ and indeed, so long as US nutcases do not impose a Russian Adolf Hitler with needs for ‘Lebensraum nach Westen’ (since they have so much Lebensraum to the east of the Urals that any contention they needed any more would see them laughed out of court), there is no danger whatsoever of Russia invading any ex-Warsaw-Pact nations in the medium term.
The reality is that Poland, the Baltics and Ukraine have prostituted themselves to the USA and, at least in the case of Poland, that really is unforgivable given the enormous economic benefit their citizens got through moving west for economic gain. My country, the UK, had well over 1 million Polish economic migrants here and the thanks we get for that is shameless pushing of Russophobic claptrap. It is of course true that the non-Conservative Government of Boris Johnson does whatever Washington tells it to, so of course it engages in Russophobic racism both covertly and overtly. The UK security services are pretty much beyond the control of political oversight and the evidence of the past 75 years is that it is staffed by deluded far-right warmongers who think that overthrowing legitimate governments world wide makes them worthy of ‘elite status’.
My personal view is simple. Say this to the USA:
1. No threats about military bases in Europe – pack your bags and go home. We don’t need you here, we don’t want you here and if you threaten to impose militaristic mountebanks in Moscow, Kiev and Warsaw, then shame on you and we will tell the whole world about it. We will call on them to boycott you as a nation, apply universal trade sanctions on you and we will find out quite how murderous you are prepared to be.
2. No more closed-shop selling of overpriced US weaponry to NATO nations in Europe: you compete with cheaper alternatives and you stop padding prices so disgustingly.
3. We want to trade with you, but we are not impressed by Pfizer going around the world threatening nations with no vaccines unless they put up sovereign assets as collateral. The R+D spend of Pfizer on the vaccines from shareholders funds, rather than US taxpayers’ money, is incompatible with anything but a cooperative service provider. We know that concept is alien to US TNCs, but it’s high time they were forcibly educated about it.
4. We don’t like your attitudes to professional competitive sport: you are just a bunch of cartel owners who in some cases would have made Al Capone blush. You didn’t develop global football, Europe did. Ditto rugby union. Cricket was developed by the Commonwealth, the epicentre of winter sports is in Europe, as is professional cycling. We don’t look up to you and nor should we after the antics of the ‘Red Brigades’ in English football….
5. We don’t want Bill Gates and George Soros having anything to do with cultural life in Europe. Soros dealt with nazis, decamped from Europe and tried to bankrupt the Bank of England. His name should be top of any sanctions list of proscribed individuals. Gates wants to surveil the whole population using his low-level satellites – the mark of a true pervert.
6. We don’t want US agriculture, nor do we want Bill Gates’ fake meat made from laboratories. We know how to farm, thank you very much and so do the Indians, despite your best efforts to bankrupt them and take away their livelihoods. You had better not be using HAARP technology to vandalise spring weather systems…
7. We don’t want to choose between the USA, Russia and China, because we don’t believe in looking up to Godfathers. We are a population of 500 million people who are perfectly capable of organising their own lives, thank you very much. If you, Russia and/or China need deferential subservience or else, you need to see mental health professionals. You wouldn’t be superior, you would just be thuggish brutes. We don’t look up to that kind of character….and we don’t think that Vladimir Putin is such a character.
8. We don’t want any more US wars in the Middle East organised to cause mass migration of displaced peoples into Europe. We would consider that an act of diplomatic insanity by the US, were they to force it through.
9. We don’t want European dictators any more than we want US ones. We don’t want diktat from the WEF any more than we want it from the IPCC, the WHO or the Trilateral Commission. We don’t think much of the way the CIA drove the framing of the EU, as it is a charter for TNC lobbyists at the expense of the people. TNCs know everything about how to win power games and much much less about innovating to benefit local communities. That’s why they always buy innovative SMEs, because they got left behind in their bureaucratic supertankers.
10. We know full well there are some terrible African, South American and Southern Asian politicians. We’ve had our share of them too. But that doesn’t mean that we have to punish the people of those continents to play imperial games to get a hard-on. Politicians should have more in common with wise old grandparents than pre-adolescent schoolboys, after all….
No doubt this would all be laughed out of court, but there’s the problem. You have to develop the mind of a sociopath to engage with sociopaths, psychopaths etc.
For the majority who consider that anathema, saying their piece is often as good as it gets….
May I add the following points? (Could be either extensions of existing points or new ones outright)
* We don’t want to be forced to trade with other sovereign entities in outdated and obsolete US dollars. The euro and pound are higher in value anyway.
* Speaking of Bill Gates, we don’t want Microsoft’s software forced down our throats every time we buy a new PC. We don’t want one single company making decisions for 90% of computers worldwide.
* You may want the freedom to drive wherever you want with a car, but some of us want the freedom to not own a car at all.
* Get your tourists to behave better when traveling on our soil. Drop the ‘American Exceptionalism’ shtick. Demand that tourists stop asking locals to quote prices in “real money” (read: dollars). Encourage tourists to at least learn the local language.
* Quit calling us “Cheese-eating surrender monkeys” every time we choose not to be part of your suicidal military misadventures. Hell, stop using us as a dumping ground thereof.
* Stop forcing English on us as a mandatory school subject – what if some of us choose not to travel to the Anglosphere? What if we choose not to fiddle with spelling and pronunciation inconsistencies (e.g. you can’t spell ‘slaughter’ without ‘laughter’)?
* If our cinemas have to carry your films alongside our home-grown ones, then it would be fair for our films to be in your cinemas as well, and not just direct-to-video. Either embrace our films the same way we embrace yours, or stop exporting your films to us altogether. Some of us are sick and tired of Hollywood and want to see alternatives.
Another great article! Thanks for that! I have a question, though…
I assume your use of the terms “Nazi” and “Ukronazi” is somewhat rhetorical. Yes?
Surely, you’re not meaning to associate these people with the “Nazis” (a slur) of Germany.
Maybe you mean that these people are right-wing nationalists?
After all, the sitting president is a Jew (those people who did holodomor).
Would Zelensky not be their FIRST target?
A lot of obvious trolling on the UNZ post of this Saker analysis.
It sure is a pleasure not to have to scroll through that type of obvious bia here.
However, one comment caught my eye that suggests an angle I had not considered.
The plausibility of this?
“the russians shutting down the israeli missile defence systems has changed the whole dynamic in both ukraine and syria. putins not one to show his hand but in this case the hubris of nato and the israelis required him to let them know what they’re in for if they keep poking the bear.” (Notsofast )
There are two key factors in this pending active war in Ukrainia.
* the first one is the necessity of a “color revolution” in Belarus. (by example from Belarus it is possible to cut the major electrical flow towards the Baltic states which are still linked to the ancient soviet electrical grid)).
* the second one is the stance of Germany. There is a big misunderstanding in this article with regards Germany.
The defeat in WWII and perhaps some herd feelings have led Germany to temporary accept a vassalization status. But the german people is a very proud one and his acceptation of vassalization is coming to an end.
So Germany is now defending the NS2 against all threats
The global war is mainly economical and it is very difficult for Germany to maintain its industrial capitalism system. With regards this point NS2 is clearly vital because the “energiewende” is a big failure weighting on the german economical competitivity.
Germany is also trying to take control of the french nuclear forces and is planning an european, meaning german, army. There is a project of a modern fighter with Dassault….
To confirm this underground tendancy, Angela Merkel had just reminded Ze that he must comply with the Minsk agreement.
Anyway it is certainly well understood in Germany that NATO is not a defense organisation but a military tool of the USA.
” But the german people is a very proud one and his acceptation of vassalization is coming to an end.”
German sovereignty is compromised by an agreement between Adenauer and the US government lasting 99 years. This makes 2044 before any ‘sovereignty’ returns to Germany…
until then there will be many German Stepford Wives standing on the world stage…
Yes you know how the international à gréement are respected by the US administration.
It must be understood that this is à question of life or death for Germany.
To set up an international gouvernance it is necessary to destroy the states, the Culture, rewrite the history… in all the countries. Only the nations with a strong soul will survive. The USA are in a process of a fast destruction. I remember John Coltrane, Charlie Parker, Dizzy, Max Roach, and many other musicians. They have contributed to the american culture. They were able to integrate music for abroad, like latin music.. Without culture it’s désintégration.
China is biding its time for the eventual absorption of Taiwan. Will the developments in the Ukraine change its calculations?
Medvedev recently penned @ sputnik that the affair in Ukie was similar to the Caribbean Crises, which the USSR and US “solved” by compromise. After that, of course, both leaders were replaced. The job on Kennedy was preceded by an attempt on de Gaulle. (I do not mean to say connected by agency here). What I do mean to say is that when direct war or conflict becomes too dangerous for “some” regimes, or when the generals don’t take kindly to a Policy, these regimes then tend to use “other methods”, such as murder. Sometimes they murder their titular leaders. Thus I expect that we shall see a multitude of key persons encountering the unfortunate. I notice this
Last time that happened they used machine pistols to try to murder de Gaulle.
And after the Bay of Pigs? After the Soviet missiles? (perhaps similar to the Ukie fubar crises which is topic here) then > Dallas.
They rhyme .
Such different commentary here compared to Unz. Far more sane peaceable folks here than the bellicose neocons that seem to prevail there. My how they hate Putin and want war. They want the destruction of Russia so badly, they will certainly deserve the consequences if their maniacal dreams come true, but most of us will not. It is totally mystifying how they can arrive at and hold their deranged beliefs.
Any day there is no “news” out of Ukraine is a rare good day. In spite of all the dramatic high resolution and high fidelity footage of modern wars and their hideous consequences stored in our global archives and freely available through our modern media to anyone on the planet, we dimwitted humans seem to repeatedly forget the lesson that no matter how distasteful the peace, war would be orders of magnitude worse. A nuclear war means not just changing the terms of your existence but the near certainty of ending your existence, plus that of any descendants you may have planned to leave. Even a conventional world war does not have a favorable cost/benefit ratio for anyone, not even those demented neocons.
“It is totally mystifying how they can arrive at and hold their deranged beliefs.” — it is more likely a function of their job descriptions.
Is there no stopping the insane provocations the Americans will try in Ukraine?
It’s trolling to make the obviously false claim that unz.com has a neocon readership or any neocon writers. If anyone wonders about this, you owe it to yourself to visitunz.com and see for yourself. Unz.com attracts some of the best writers on the web. And some not so good, too. But neocon writers are extremely unwelcome there.
Well, there were times when I visited the Unz Review two to three years ago. I remember at a few readers, for instance, buying into the narrative of NATO guaranteeing peace and stability in Europe and accusing Europeans of being ungrateful freeloaders. While I have seen this narrative on certain neocon media outlets, I can’t say it makes said Unz readers neocons themselves (the definition thereof could be more nuanced than that and/or beliefs in (Anglo-)American Exceptionalism), nor can I determine how prevalent this attitude is among them today, at least compared to 2018.
There was this other time within the past year when the Saker published an article on Unz, and some of the comments were accusing him of being a Russian troll. I don’t remember what that article was or how many commentators said that.
In the end, while the opinions of some readers may coincide with those of certain neocons, I doubt it makes the Unz readership ‘neocon’.
Today in Kiev there was a neofascist march honoring the SS division Galizien (Galychyna). As report Ukrainian media, Facebook today actively bans Ukrainian journalists posting pictures and video from the march.
The main reason for the ban – to pretend there is allegedly no fascists in Ukraine so that not to echo ‘Russian propaganda’. The division Galizien was known for participation in the Holocaust, atrocities against Belarus, Ukrainian, Czechoslovak, Yugoslav and French civilians in WW2. Organizers of the march: Svoboda, Right Sector, C-14. There were seen, reportedly, also participants with flags of Belarus opposition. Despite quarantine restrictions the march was allowed by Kiev authorities and guarded by cops. Earlier social protests were banned because of quarantine.
Videos and pictures are available right on websites