Today I am opening yet one more open thread and I am offering this suggestion for a topic (not excluding other *related* topics from the discussion): what should the scope of the Russian reaction to a Ukronazi attack be?
Here, I will offer my own opinion in a short bulletpoint format:
- Russia should intervene within hours of any Ukrainian attack because leaving the LDNR forces alone will result in needlessly high LDNR casualties. Yes, they can probably resist very effectively, but the cost might be very high. Russia can help without any such massive loss of life.
- Early in the operation Russia needs to “lock” the airspace above the theater of operations (at least in the Ukrainian operational depth) and officially declare a no-fly zone.
- Russia should strike throughout the operational and even strategic depth of the Ukraine because the Ukronazi armed forces must be disorganized and decapitated. Key Ukronazi officials must be eliminated just like the Wahabis in Chechnia and Syria have been.
- Russian forces should stop at or near the current line of contact for a number of reasons including i) the fact that Russia has no moral obligation before the Ukrainian people who have to liberate themselves and not wait for Russia to do so ii) Russia has no need for a long counterinsurgency operation iii) Russia did not break the Ukraine and should not be asked to pay for its reconstruction iv) if Russia inflicts a severe enough defeat on the Ukronazi forces the country will implode anyway.
- LDNR forces, however, need to move as far as they see needed to establish a permanent international border (recognized or not, makes no difference) between the LDNR and the rump Banderastan. Russia should support LDNR forces by “maneuvers by fire”, EW, intelligence, control of the airspace and special operations.
- The entire Ukrainian Navy and Air Force (both admittedly rather symbolic and amusingly tiny) must be destroyed (including their support infrastructure). The Nazis must be disarmed, like Saakashvili has been in 08.
- Though it is unlikely that the Ukronazis would attack Crimea or attempt to breach the rest of the Russo-Ukrainian border, Russia should be ready to fully repeal even a major attack on these directions.
- Should any insurrections take place in cities like Mariupol, Nikolaev, Odessa and other, Russia should not openly intervene, but could use her considerable EW and cyberwarfare capabilities to disrupt the functioning of the local Ukronazi authorities.
- The radars of Russian coastal defenses and Black Sea Fleet vessels should all be switched to a targeting mode to make it clear to any ship sailing in the Black Sea that it’s lifespan is measured in minutes and totally depends on the goodwill of Russia. The same goes for the control of the airspace along/near the Russian airspace.
- Last, but not least, Russia should announce the total termination of any and all good exports from Russia to the Ukraine (including energy). Let them choke without the “aggressor’s” goods.
These are just some of my thoughts today, suggestions if you want. Now I would like to turn this over to you and see what you have to say.
Agree…Russia needs to do the minimum necessary to destroy attacking forces. Aside from whatever reasons the Ukrainians have for trying to attack, it’s likely that the real plan is to suck Russia into a war where they will be painted as the agressors so as to give an excuse for the US and their vassals to attack Russia economically (NS2, etc.) and politically (in the UN). Just like in Georgia, it’s highly doubtful that NATO countries will become directly involved in the fighting regardless of any promises that have been made.
Russia this Russia that
Russian generals have some plans prepared for sure but so far they do nothing especially significant.
They are in delicate position. Americans are provoking them and where is the final red line for Russia…we do not know
Anyway, Ukraine is American last chance to suck Russia into war…
I think that NS2 is one of reasons for this, but not only one…
Russia should avoid war as long as it is possible…but if Russia gets in situation to be forced to enter war then had to go to the end…to Kiev
I do not think that NATO and US Army will openly involve in the war
I don’t think anymore that Russia is in a delicate position. Since relations are rock bottom with both the US and the EU Russia doesn’t and shouldn’t give a (removed language,MOD) what their enemies will say now. Russia needs to send a clear message that it will not tolerate the provocations anymore of the Ukronazis. Russia’s got to do what Russia’s got to do. Period. End of story.
“Russia this Russia that”
Isn’t that the idea of this thread? What should Russia do?
Yes, Ukraine is the last chance the US of provoking Russia into a war. However, Russian generals are not in such a delicate position as you present it. In a wartime situation you have something called strategy and tactics. The Russian response needs to be tough, quick, selective and precise. This means concentrating on the Donbass region, and only picking Ukrainian Air Force and Naval units outside the Donbass. If the Russian response is efficient, then the whole affair can be concluded in a matter of days, as it was in Georgia. After that you would most probably see an internal chain reaction in Ukraine.
On a lighter note: When Russia intervened in Georgia, you had panic buying of weapons and ammunition in US states neighboring the US state of Georgia. Some people in the US actually thought Russia had invaded the US state of Georgia.
Before I suggest a military scenario, let me add the point of view of the Russian public perception as far as official TV resources with furthest (millions) reach (Vladimir Solovyov, Dmitry Kulikov etc.) are concerned. One can try to minimize this part of Russian society, but as far as an accurate depiction of general trends of the Russian society are concerned, this will be the frame of public perception, within which the Russian political leadership will have to work:
1. The consensus is, that the current Ukrainian escalation is qualitatively different from 2014 and as far as military action is concerned, not comparable to the Georgian operation in 2008. This means the stakes are much higher and any action of Russia will be met with the most rabid propaganda, which will lead to an isolation of Russia – much more serious than in the Cold War.
2. This will be a watershed moment, which will put into question the post 1991 order of the RF. The current RF was designed to be part of the West in a European political incarnation, which is wholly inadequate to react to the current development in the world. This has been very well articulated by Sergey Kurginyan just minutes ago on the most important public communication platform (like it or not) that exist in Russia today: at 01:52:43 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NE7KNbDMJlQ (Russian). More than that, because NATO has the conventional forces advantage, in this very video, these experts argue, that Russia should demonstrably explode a nuclear weapon over the ocean, with a high enough yield, so that nobody can ignore the Russian intention to use them if NATO decides to participate in this war. This was unthinkable to be discussed seriously on public television just a couple of years ago.
3. The Russian political leadership, which has currently inter-elite balance will not have the luxury to ignore either outcome: If Russia acts, they will have to reconfigure because of outside pressure and if Russia fai