Today I am opening yet one more open thread and I am offering this suggestion for a topic (not excluding other *related* topics from the discussion): what should the scope of the Russian reaction to a Ukronazi attack be?
Here, I will offer my own opinion in a short bulletpoint format:
- Russia should intervene within hours of any Ukrainian attack because leaving the LDNR forces alone will result in needlessly high LDNR casualties. Yes, they can probably resist very effectively, but the cost might be very high. Russia can help without any such massive loss of life.
- Early in the operation Russia needs to “lock” the airspace above the theater of operations (at least in the Ukrainian operational depth) and officially declare a no-fly zone.
- Russia should strike throughout the operational and even strategic depth of the Ukraine because the Ukronazi armed forces must be disorganized and decapitated. Key Ukronazi officials must be eliminated just like the Wahabis in Chechnia and Syria have been.
- Russian forces should stop at or near the current line of contact for a number of reasons including i) the fact that Russia has no moral obligation before the Ukrainian people who have to liberate themselves and not wait for Russia to do so ii) Russia has no need for a long counterinsurgency operation iii) Russia did not break the Ukraine and should not be asked to pay for its reconstruction iv) if Russia inflicts a severe enough defeat on the Ukronazi forces the country will implode anyway.
- LDNR forces, however, need to move as far as they see needed to establish a permanent international border (recognized or not, makes no difference) between the LDNR and the rump Banderastan. Russia should support LDNR forces by “maneuvers by fire”, EW, intelligence, control of the airspace and special operations.
- The entire Ukrainian Navy and Air Force (both admittedly rather symbolic and amusingly tiny) must be destroyed (including their support infrastructure). The Nazis must be disarmed, like Saakashvili has been in 08.
- Though it is unlikely that the Ukronazis would attack Crimea or attempt to breach the rest of the Russo-Ukrainian border, Russia should be ready to fully repeal even a major attack on these directions.
- Should any insurrections take place in cities like Mariupol, Nikolaev, Odessa and other, Russia should not openly intervene, but could use her considerable EW and cyberwarfare capabilities to disrupt the functioning of the local Ukronazi authorities.
- The radars of Russian coastal defenses and Black Sea Fleet vessels should all be switched to a targeting mode to make it clear to any ship sailing in the Black Sea that it’s lifespan is measured in minutes and totally depends on the goodwill of Russia. The same goes for the control of the airspace along/near the Russian airspace.
- Last, but not least, Russia should announce the total termination of any and all good exports from Russia to the Ukraine (including energy). Let them choke without the “aggressor’s” goods.
These are just some of my thoughts today, suggestions if you want. Now I would like to turn this over to you and see what you have to say.
Agree…Russia needs to do the minimum necessary to destroy attacking forces. Aside from whatever reasons the Ukrainians have for trying to attack, it’s likely that the real plan is to suck Russia into a war where they will be painted as the agressors so as to give an excuse for the US and their vassals to attack Russia economically (NS2, etc.) and politically (in the UN). Just like in Georgia, it’s highly doubtful that NATO countries will become directly involved in the fighting regardless of any promises that have been made.
Russia this Russia that
Russian generals have some plans prepared for sure but so far they do nothing especially significant.
They are in delicate position. Americans are provoking them and where is the final red line for Russia…we do not know
Anyway, Ukraine is American last chance to suck Russia into war…
I think that NS2 is one of reasons for this, but not only one…
Russia should avoid war as long as it is possible…but if Russia gets in situation to be forced to enter war then had to go to the end…to Kiev
I do not think that NATO and US Army will openly involve in the war
I don’t think anymore that Russia is in a delicate position. Since relations are rock bottom with both the US and the EU Russia doesn’t and shouldn’t give a (removed language,MOD) what their enemies will say now. Russia needs to send a clear message that it will not tolerate the provocations anymore of the Ukronazis. Russia’s got to do what Russia’s got to do. Period. End of story.
“Russia this Russia that”
Isn’t that the idea of this thread? What should Russia do?
Yes, Ukraine is the last chance the US of provoking Russia into a war. However, Russian generals are not in such a delicate position as you present it. In a wartime situation you have something called strategy and tactics. The Russian response needs to be tough, quick, selective and precise. This means concentrating on the Donbass region, and only picking Ukrainian Air Force and Naval units outside the Donbass. If the Russian response is efficient, then the whole affair can be concluded in a matter of days, as it was in Georgia. After that you would most probably see an internal chain reaction in Ukraine.
On a lighter note: When Russia intervened in Georgia, you had panic buying of weapons and ammunition in US states neighboring the US state of Georgia. Some people in the US actually thought Russia had invaded the US state of Georgia.
Before I suggest a military scenario, let me add the point of view of the Russian public perception as far as official TV resources with furthest (millions) reach (Vladimir Solovyov, Dmitry Kulikov etc.) are concerned. One can try to minimize this part of Russian society, but as far as an accurate depiction of general trends of the Russian society are concerned, this will be the frame of public perception, within which the Russian political leadership will have to work:
1. The consensus is, that the current Ukrainian escalation is qualitatively different from 2014 and as far as military action is concerned, not comparable to the Georgian operation in 2008. This means the stakes are much higher and any action of Russia will be met with the most rabid propaganda, which will lead to an isolation of Russia – much more serious than in the Cold War.
2. This will be a watershed moment, which will put into question the post 1991 order of the RF. The current RF was designed to be part of the West in a European political incarnation, which is wholly inadequate to react to the current development in the world. This has been very well articulated by Sergey Kurginyan just minutes ago on the most important public communication platform (like it or not) that exist in Russia today: at 01:52:43 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NE7KNbDMJlQ (Russian). More than that, because NATO has the conventional forces advantage, in this very video, these experts argue, that Russia should demonstrably explode a nuclear weapon over the ocean, with a high enough yield, so that nobody can ignore the Russian intention to use them if NATO decides to participate in this war. This was unthinkable to be discussed seriously on public television just a couple of years ago.
3. The Russian political leadership, which has currently inter-elite balance will not have the luxury to ignore either outcome: If Russia acts, they will have to reconfigure because of outside pressure and if Russia fails to act, it will face political revolt inside Russia. This is “Zugzwang”. Similar to the Chinese Taiwan problem, the West will go nuts.
I would have agreed to Saker’s scenario, if we had lived in the world of 2007-2018. This will be different. Why? Almost all low level coercive tools were used by the West till now. The US led aggression in the Donbass will not only make Russia act militarily, but in consequence put into question any kind of inter Russian-European cooperation. NS2 will die and many more tools will be used (debt buying sanctions, SWIFT…). The US will get all the reasons it needs to take over Europe completely with videos of Russian tanks rolling over former Ukraine. To think Russia will dodge a bullet by limited action, which is exactly Saker’s scenario, Russia will reap all the negative consequences with almost nothing to show for it. Do you really think the rest of Ukraine won’t be NATO territory after this war? Almost every location (in Ukraine), which is talked about in terms of war, has a very fatal ring to it because of the experiences of WWII. Russians will not and cannot accept an hostile alliance which will take root in Ukraine.
BTW, an interesting development is that many statements have been made by Putin, which directly concern the economic order of Russia. This is very uncharacteristic for Putin to say the least. I think this is evidence that major developments are occurring right under our noses.
That’s why I think, that decisive action will be undertaken this time. Where I agree is that, Russia is not powerful enough to occupy the West of Ukraine. Probably, there will be many people’s republics after this war, which will be protectorates of Russia – expect a connection to Transnistria.
It is surreal how close a potential nuclear crisis is and almost no information is available in the public, at least in the German speaking part of Europe. Our so called institutions are despicable, “news media” are… I pass – let me stay composed.
Russia will do what Russia needs to be done and will not be a captive to Nord Stream 2. If the west strong arms Germany to cancel NS2 then this will be an extremely serious breach of contract and you can kiss goodbye any trade relations between Russia and western Europe. After all it was Germany that requested the building of it. Russia will just say FU to both Ukraine and the west regarding supplying natural gas. Russia will call Europe’s bluff and say let them get expensive LNG from their masters across the pond. Russia will decidedly turn east and that’s that.
Spot on Gary. Russia will not set foot in Ukrainian territory but will defend itself using whatever weapons that are applicable. If Russia enters Ukraine even at the invitation of the breakaway regions it will be classed as an invasion and most likely go down a path that will not benefit mankind. Russia needs to warn the EU that any attack from them on Russia then Russia will seek an early victory with the immediate destruction of those states and make sure that the EU citizens hear what Russia is saying and let the EU politicians explain to their citizens why they will be obliterated. Time for Russia to cut the apron strings not only with the EU but with the US also. In regards to NS2 if the EU pulls out then Russia will be demanding compensation and there are many EU corporations active in Russia with assets. It is commendable from Russia to hold back and consider what their actions have upon the rest of the Globe but needs to represent her own citizens and take their future into consideration and if the West can’t/won’t accept it then let it be so; you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink it.
What is the view from Australia?…… Well! We have no view just a reaction which our obese Foreign Minister in compliant obedience sanctioned the Kerch Railway Bridge and its builders just over a week ago. 14500 Klms from Canberra preventing the Russians from going anywhere near the Opera House? And that is what Australians would understand if they knew about it because what happens in Ukraine is a mystery with the National Broadcaster never mentioning a word of anything going on there……….. Only something if Navalny poisons himself again with Lithium?
But what I would say from all I have read and looking at what Wang Yi said in Alaska, “This old habit needs to change”! Which to my mind told Blinken and all the Americans…… The World has changed and you no longer are running the show as you wish! And Wang Yi immediately the same day (Thursday) invited Lavrov to China on the following Monday and the following “Love Fest” with open “greeting” arms told you all you need to know about who can trust whom? And what is instore for anyone who thinks they are going to lay down the Law and interfere as they have previously done!
The tone of Lavrov at his meeting with Borrell some week or two ago where he excoriated him at his side, the terse admonishments of Maria Zakharova of the EU and finally the last unequivocal stand of Putin in regard to …….. We are not concerned in what interests the US …. We are only concerned in what interests Russia!…… Gone are the days when everyone held their breath as to the US reaction or approval!
So my opinion is……….At the next heavy shelling pf the Donbas they, Russia, should move in and exterminate every Ukrainian airfield … Create a No-Fly Zone over the Black Sea as well as Ukraine itself and take every piece of ground up to the Dnieper River out to Odessa in the South. This would stop US Aircraft and block the Black Sea to the US Navy.
To wait would see the US move more reinforcement closer to the Russian Border creating a bigger problem which will encourage the US further.
So in my opinion Russia has nothing to lose because that’s what the US intends in the first place and they will at the same time ramp up Syria?
I have no doubt China will send a hell of a message as well? The outcome of all this would be a very serious dysfyntioning US Military not knowing what Plan B is ………?
Confronted by China secure with Oil supplies from Iran and Russia……. Iran now supported by China and Russia and Russia putting an end to Nato moving into Ukraine! Only Turkey needs to be managed with a paddock full of Jihadists and a totally untrustworthy “Ratbag” whose reliability is as guaranteed as a broken bed spring!
I have no strong opinion here, President Putin and Lavrov have both basically said Ukrainian statehood will not survive an attack on the Donbass. They must be hoping that threat will be enough to prevent war, but of course, they will have to follow through if the attack comes, so what you are saying about going all the way to Transnistria seems plausible.
I only hope that the Russian leadership really understand this issue, and either have some brilliant plan to get the Ukrainians to back down, or otherwise pull “judo” moves and make it not go as the GAE plans.
you’re misinterpreting Putin/Lavrov’s words. They didn’t mean Ukraine statehood will not survive because Russia will intervene and destroy it. They just meant it will crumble because of the excesses of the war which they feel Ukraine is not ready for against the rebels. Russia will not intervene in this conflict. Nord Stream 2 is too important.
Russia has a few billion euros tied up in NSII – it is not a critical asset to Russia (but is definitely a critical asset to Germany). Russia’s security on her Western border is far more important than NSII. An incursion of NATO into Ukraine is a game-changer, and if the present course is allowed to proceed, that is exactly what will ultimately happen – nuke missiles just a few hundred km from Moscow.
Russia knows this. And that is the reason for Putin and Lavrov’s statement – Europe’s last chance to exercise reason.
I believe the decision has already been made and the Russian public is being conditioned to the reality that Russia must invade Ukraine in the near future. The military build-up presently going on near the Ukrainian border is much, much different than anything witnessed in the past by Russian forces. They are even pulling in forces from as far away as Siberia. They have deployed their elite airborne troops to Crimea. They have deployed a huge amphibious force across from Mariupol. They are transporting enormous quantities of military equipment from all over Russia to the areas surrounding Ukraine. They have moved EW and anti-missile weaponry to Crimea.
Is NSII so important as to prevent Russia from protecting herself from NATO? I think not. Economically, Russia is turning East. She knows now that there is little chance of reconciliation with the EU over Ukraine, Georgia, Crimea and the increasingly aggressive noise coming out of Washington. The time for diplomacy (which never really existed on the part of the ‘western nations) is now past – there is no longer a chance of retrieving sanity from the West. I believe Russia is finally facing up to this and has made the very difficult decision to take Ukraine to the Dneiper and let the rest in the West whither on the EU vines. Russian knows the cost of this regarding economic and political relations with the West and what is at stake. But I think she sees her survival as at risk if she doesn’t act. The Saker’s position that Russia will only take limited action as far as the current line of conflict is, to me, unrealistic and would accomplish little other than extend the pain – it would solve nothing and would put Russia closer to a strategic failure to protect itself – they might protect the Donbas in the process, but that would only be short-lived, as the current situation has clearly shown based on recent history. No, Russia must act now before NATO does. The time is right.
Victor, I have to agree to your perspective as well. The Saker’s view is that Russia should keep playing ping pong, which strategically only gives her enemies more time to see how to bring more forces, weapons and plots to keep surrounding her. No, I believe the Bear has to growl harder this time. History has shown time and time again that whenever the Bear growls his enemies recoil in fear and by God if it moves they run away from him like madmen.
ALSO, I do not know why everybody is so set on the idea that Russia defending herself by going into Ukronazi dens to destroy them means the absolute end of NS2. That is some serious nonsense. NS2 is already built, they are just doing the finishing touches to be ready in June. Yes, some construction will keep going, but the main structure is done, 11 billion ready to go. Whose industrial advancement depends on that gas? Germany. There is a reason why NS2 could not be stopped so far, and it is because Germans asked for it and Germans need it.
Can it be temporary stopped by political bullshit? Yeah, sure. A few months, perhaps. Then a huge block of reality will set it, and Germany will not want to destroy her industrial advancement for the meaningless issue Ukraine is to them. Sure, it is a political talking point made to look important for propaganda, but in the economic reality, what is Ukraine to Germany? Or to anyone, for that matter? Nothing. No one is going to stop building up industrial advancement because of yet another failed country.
If Russia acts decisively you will actually see a general sense of who cares in Europe, after the initial outburst of propaganda, and then they will have to talk to Russia. Reality has a simple way to fall upon everyone’s head.
I agree with your opinion that Putin/Lavrov’s words were statements about the self-destruction mood which the Ukis seem to have adopted, spurred on by their masters in the west.
But what do you mean with: “Nord Stream 2 is too important.” Are you suggesting that Russia should allow this self-destruction to take its course, in order to save NS/2? Are you under some kind of delusion that by means of this ‘restrained stratagy’ Empire can be persuaded to take their hands of from NS/2?
That will never happen, so the ‘restraint stratagy’ will be just that. Much restraint and no gains.
That’s the dillema Russia is phasing.
I too concur. The Russian response needs to be efficient, powerful and selective. This means concentrating on the Donbass region, the exception being the Ukrainian Air Force and Navy. In it’s PR approach, Russia needs to underline the fact that it is protecting the Donbass, not invading Ukraine.
Three American ‘nato’ ships have entered the Black Sea today, one light cruiser, two DDG’s, all armed with missiles. This troika is in addition to the two Turk, one Romani and one Bulgar frigates comfortably ensconsed in Odessa Harbor. Macron has offered to replace the aging orc Mig 29’s with Rafel fighters. No time frame on this deal.
I think it is well known amongst American/nato sailors that they are living on borrowed time for every second they are in our Sea. A lot of the foolishness they pull, like the feint attacks toward Krimu before they leave, is simply looking for SigInt, they are hoping our boys will turn on their targeting systems. No need for that, if the foreigners are fool enough to open but one missile hatch they will have about 3 seconds to collect SigInt before the Bastions fly for them.
Worth surrounding the harbour with mines??? Keep them in somehow…they will feel more vulnerable. Could be held hostage to force Nato to withdraw and or rewrite policies…….but I seem to recall some Nato minesweepers a few weeks ago…..they could be then targeted too…..
NATO Mine Countermeasures Group 2 is headed by Turkey and is based in the Med and Black Sea. NATO Mine Countermeasures Group 1 is a much larger group, but is based in the Baltic and North Seas.
They serve a useful purpose – as hostages. All but guarantees that NATO will do nothing. If only Gilbert and Sullivan were alive today.
One question on your wonderful suggestions, with which I agree.
My question is: How do you destroy the entire Ukrainian Navy and Air Force WITHOUT going BEYOND East Ukraine and “the current line of contact”?
How far DO you go — including into the Black Sea?
small reconnaissance teams and drones that marking targets for the artillery and long rage missiles
How do you destroy the entire Ukrainian Navy and Air Force WITHOUT going BEYOND East Ukraine and “the current line of contact”?
You use standoff weapons, like cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, UAV, etc.
I get I need to clarify: when I wrote about not crossing the line of contact I was referring only to ground forces. But Russian strike capabilities should be used over the entire territory of the Ukraine, as far as Lvov if needed.
In the Black Sea there is no line of contact. So Russia can send out all her subs (6 advanced 636.3) and her surface fleet anywhere she wants (As for right now, they are ALL on patrol deployed). As for the coastal defense missile batteries, they just need to “ping” any intruder hard enough to get a message across.
I hope that this answers your question.
I have it on very good authority that NATO have more than enough Standoff weapons in theatre to check any Russian advance.
These standoff weapons includ drones of all types and sizes – advanced ground based and underwater drones not just aerial types.
From Estonia to Romania, and from Poland to the North pole, including a carrier group in the med and a ballistic complex in Cyprus (I wont even mention the systems in Turkey covering the entire Black Sea) NATO have a workable plan to decimate Russian forces using conventional only systems should the Russians enter Ukraine.
From what I know from a few years ago (I have sat in working groups discussing post conflict projections and have seen the devestation planned – but not the actual ‘plans to cause the devestation’ if you understand the distinction) NATO are positioned to stop within hours an advance of any size inside Ukraine, whilst also reducing Kaliningrad, Novorosyesk, and Crimea to observer status (I trust you know what I mean by this without elaborating).
Ukraine is one big trap for the Russians – it is death ground. The Russians know this of course.
The Russians also know that by ‘hook by crook’, so to speak, Ukraine will join NATO during Bidens term.
I have heard that the papers are already signed – just France and Germany are yet to sign (likely the reason Russia contacted just France and Germany recently to advise them of the risks in eastern Ukraine).
There are already masive NATO resouces sitting in Germany and Poland ready to be transfered to Ukraine as soon as all papers are signed – and Mark These Words – they will be signed as soon as the very first Russian missile lands inside Ukraine.
I understand this would have already occured if Russia had not recovered Crimea.
NATO do not wish to engage in a nuclear war – even a limited one – with Russia for obvious reasons, however, if someone wishes to check they will find that NATO aircraft in Germany and Turkey are B61 equiped, and the current US lead vessel in the Black Sea is also equivilently equiped on an approx 70-30 convential to nuclear ratio in the missile tubes (this why Russia made a big show of deploying thier mobile launchers).
NATO have been moving very sugnificant numbers of standoff systems within range of major Russian cities, including using North Korea as an excuse to reposition THADD and ballistic missile submarines to cover the Vladivostok and Sea of Othosk regions.
Russia are obviously well aware that NATO have planned a MASSIVE trap for them – in not only military terms but diplomatically. Russia will damned if they do and damned if they dont act on Ukraine.
Russian cities, industrial centres, ports, transit hubs, and all bases are now covered by significant NATO forces in the form of advanced munitions few even know have been deployed. Heck, how many people even on this well informed site know of the post conflict plan to starve the surviving Russians by destroying ALL of thier fertile land and crops with an advanced cocktail of lab developed GMO weeds which are not only herbicide resistant but produce a soil contaminating herbicde themselves? The US even recently unveiled the vehicle planned to do this – a heavy stealth chemical dispersal drone – but under the public guise of developing a loitering unmanned aerial fuel tank for fighter jets:
The only reason NATO have not already taken Ukraine into the fold is the post Syria threat by Russia to take any future war to the United States and the United Kingdom (Putin publically stated the next war would not be fought on Russian soil), with demonstrations of the weapon systems to this.
If the US and UK are confident that they can discourage (or even neutralise) Russia within her borders, then make no mistake, NATO will precipitate some sort of action to expediate thier plans.
It is my very humble opinion that if Russia are going to act it should be in a way that shocks NATO out of the plan they have set to shock Russia. For this reason I feel that a conventional war is now off the table, and a demonstration of the destructive power of modern tactical nuclear weapons will be the only way to prevent a much larger conflict, which seems inevitable at this stage.
Russia and NATO are both walking into Sun Tzu’s death ground – where the only options are to fight and almost certainly be destroyed, or to surrender without condition.
I have it on very good authority that NATO have more than enough Standoff weapons in theatre to check any Russian advance.
Really?! And what might this “authority” be?
He is talking funny stories…but Russia must do more to protect DNR amd LNR.
As we can see Russia is strengthening defences but Kiev junta is terrorising people in Donbass too much. Russia has to stop this and can stop this without involving in major war.
Fake news, Nato desinfo team.
If they are so strong why are they loosing war after war against small ME countries?
Yes, I agree. Plus that “good authority” seems to be unaware of the capabilities of Russian standoff weapons…
There will be no wider war at this time in Ukraine – it’s designed to stop Nordstream 2 and that Europe cut all relevant business ties with Russia – the Middle East will be soon the next battle ground again and a desperate Erdogan keeps on dreaming … Ukraine can wait
WIC, you are familiar with “1984,” yes? Because George Orwell provided the answer to your question: “The primary aim of modern warfare… is to use up the products of the machine without raising the general standard of living… materials which might otherwise be used to make the masses too comfortable, and hence, in the long run, too intelligent…
“War, it will be seen, accomplishes the necessary destruction, but accomplishes it in a psychologically acceptable way… the consciousness of being at war, and therefore in danger, makes the handing-over of all power to a small caste seem the natural, unavoidable condition of survival.”
“War after war against small ME countries” is not about “winning” or “losing” in the normal sense of warfare. It is about maintaining the human rights abuses that the wars justify indefinitely. Fortunately, our world is not like Orwell’s where everyone is in on the scam or is unable/unwilling to do something about it. However, when leaders posed a “serious” threat to the scam, like when Saddam and Gaddafi tried to sell oil in something other than Petrodollars, the Orwellian overlords managed “serious” regime change wars, did they not…?
After telling us all the super duper powerful NATO weapons and strategies they have deployed and planned to defeat Russia and after that starve its surrviving population, you come with your humble opinion promoting the use of modern tactical weapons…
It is my humble impression you are a very frightened Pole trying to calm yourself…
Either that, or a Anglo “expert” who read a lot of Tom Clancy :-)
Jesus Christ what a fairy tale you are telling us here
NATO this NATO that, NATO almighty…
Americans will not openly involve in the war because they never fight strong oponent.
They are genetic cowards and attack only weak countries that cannot defend themselves.
Only hysterical screaming, more sanctions and diplomatic BS…that is what will American cowards do…
In completely agree with Bosnian Croat. I have nothing more to add. Nato and the US are cowards, fighting only weak opponents.
Mod, is there a rule against using the Lord’s name in vain? It’s so grating for readers like me.
The Norwegians have a solution for this, calling upon the Devil (Fæn).
Comments by “Russia close to” seem like he or she’s on Russia’s side by I think the writer is engaging in wishful thinking.
The same country that got punched in the nose by Iran in full view of the entire planet and responded by…doing absolutely nothing…is now going to challenge Russia at its own front yard? Perhaps check with a different authority.
That said, I do agree that Russia should avoid any deeper entanglement in Ukraine beyond what is needed to defend Donbass.
Setting off a nuclear weapon to send a message is a really bad idea. The damage that nukes can do is already public knowledge and everyone knows that Russia has plenty of them.
If I want to read NATO propaganda BS, I would go to their website.
First of all, what follows is my opinion…
The stand off weapons referred to by.. the author are most likely aboard NATO ships in the Black Sea, Baltic, and Barents Seas. Those in the Black Sea have the shortest flight time to key Russian Cities. These are augmented by the Ageis Ashore systems in Roumania and Poland.
The rest of the weaps are either air launched, or launched from further afield.
The question which need be asked…. Who has escalation dominance here???
I believe Escalation Dominance lies with Russia because…..
Russia, and only Russia has the ability to vaporize all NATO ships in the Black, Baltic, Barents, and Mediterranean Seas. Note the frenetic search for Russian submarines in the Med. Similar searches are ongoing in the Barents, I am sure.
Question…. how to intimidate NATO into doing nothing….
The most dangerous man is the one who has nothing to lose, and behaves irrationally…
To intimidate NATO, one must intimidate the USN. It’s the USN whose ships and men are on the line here…
How to intimidate the USN…. Likely examples must be made….. concrete examples… which cannot be ignored….
Remember how the USS Cook’s weapons systems were nullified electronically by one Russian Fighter???
If the Russians can do it once, they can do it again…
Remember that the US JCS told US media he talked to the Russian General Staff??? Apparently, they have a de-escalation arrangement.
So…. Russia can send a fighter or more to the Black Sea, and nullify their weapon systems. An Iskander can be launched against one of them resistant to standing down. There is always a superhero in the bunch. The target should be an escort of the Eisenhower. The launch should be from deep in Russia. With long enough flight time for it to be relayed to the USN… The threat should be…. If NATO intervenes, we won’t just sink the tin cans in the Black Sea. We’re going to sink every NATO vessel east of the Mid-atlantic ridge. We won’t just shoot down those NATO warplanes flying near or over the FSU, we’ll destroy all NATO airbases east of the mid-atlantic ridge, The NATO electrical grid in all NATO countries, all NATO pipelines, all NATO refineries, all NATO dams of any size…. and if that doesn’t work…. we’ll launch all 3600 nukes for the express purpose of killing each and every NATO cockroach…
We’ll accomplish the whole lot within 2 hours….
Unless NATO stands down and leaves the Black Sea, Baltic Sea, the Barents Sea, the Sea of Japan, Sea of Otkoshk, and the FSU within 24 hours, the killing will begin, only those units leaving with their radars turned off will be spared.
I believe the STAVKA has much better intelligence than the author thinks… I believe they know where NATO’s assets are… and those are targeted….
I believe we will discover, once the dust settles, that it is NATO which walked into the killing ground, a killing ground dominated by some really pissed off dudes, with no sense of humor…
I believe we will find Andrei Martynov to be a better predictor of capabilities than the author.
@George W Oprisko I am really curious about that incident, which took place some 5 years ago. I have not found anything official or reliable about these electronic warfare capabilities. If somebody could really give some insights about this technology I would appreciate it. Until then I tend to believe that this kind of “legend” either is false/overestimated or NATO/USN have developed countermeasures/defences against this threat. If NATO were so vulnerable against this kind of attacks they wouldn’t try to enter the Black Sea, or Barents, or any sea around the Russian Federation for that matter.
Altin + George
Skepticism is healthy.
But. Be comfortably assured the comprehensive disabling of the Donald Cook (or Donald Duck as it became known here) happened.
You can’t find anything about it in western media. ?
Can’t find a report to confirm a USN vessel spent 8 days floating like a piece of flotsam in the Black Sea?
However, this very site, The Saker, has contemporary accounts.
And a viewing of this doco is essential “homework”.
Yes, it’s 3 hours. Oh, and yes it’s “Russian propaganda”.
And it’s about the best 3 hours you can spend to understand the events – Maiden/+Crimea, “as it happened” in 2014:
Crimea. The Way Home. Documentary by Andrey Kondrashev
White Whale, thanks for replying and for links (especially for the “Crimea. The Way Home”). I have seen all those videos about Donald Cook jammed by SU-24 jets and I found it fascinating at the time, I still do, but I think the crazed arrogant on Pentagon and Brussels are not stupid. So either they have upgraded the Aegis systems, or Donald Cook jam has nothing to do with the SU-24 simulated attack. That is what my skepticism is all about. It still amazes me, as I said because I find it a very courageous act to maneuver around a ship like Donald Cook. One has to be sure of what is doing when approaching a madman destroyer. So, the jamming theory makes sense. But on the eve of the “final war” that they look desperate to bring upon us, NATO better have upgraded their obsolete systems. Otherwise, NATO nations (to which I belong) would have hard times negotiating peace. I would love to meet those pilots and praise them for that courageous act. The crazed, inglorious bastards on the west will burn us all and nobody would care.
People who tell an unpleasant truth are always laughed at, then anger and finally people accept the truth as their own.
I agree in the above comment. Its a very dangerous situation. All the western public have been prepared and nurtured into believe in the Russian aggression and the liberal usury group in Washington are hellbent on war.
So the chocolate drinking sleeping Western public will be deeply shocked if Russia suddenly cross the line, confirming all their false narratives about the world.
I hope Russia will be able to activate a stark asymmetric approach like when they shifted the focus from Ukraine to Syria. Because we will have to do something sooner or later about these monkeys, they wont go away.
this is laughable. U.S. does not have as much stuff in theatre as you wish them to have, and Russian S400’s are right over the border with ranges that can reach pretty much all over europe.
“From Estonia to Romania, and from Poland to the North pole, including a carrier group in the med and a ballistic complex in Cyprus (I wont even mention the systems in Turkey covering the entire Black Sea) NATO have a workable plan to decimate Russian forces using conventional only systems should the Russians enter Ukraine.”
Hmmmm….. it seems to me that what you have described above constitutes a lengthy and tasty target list for the Russian high command. What the senior officers in the Pentagon and NATO HQ like to call a “target rich environment”.
In any conventional conflict, Russia is the one in control of the so-called escalation ladder. Not the US.
You are actually talking about operation drop shot and operation unthinkable within plan totality. They started these plans even before the end of ww2. These are no longer viable options since Russia has missiles and nuclear weapons.
The madness of the western military planners seems also be yours. The risk of escalation to nuclear is very present. But we know that.
If what you say was true it would have no doubt already occurred…. 1990- 2014 !
NATO have missed their opportunity. Without meaning to offend you I feel your “Western ” thought planners have managed to convince you of this fantasy.
Not hard considering Saddam’s WMD , Assads gassing , Skripals, Navalny……?
I feel Ukrainian offensive is targeted purely at NS2 . Russian , German alliance
Small steps indeed that will undoubtedly lead to greater trade .
I agree with many here . Russia needs to act decisively. Decapitation of government and military infrastructure. Does it really matter if they send in ground troops or not ? Either way Russia will be demonized in Western MSM. So what better time to send a message to NATO and the U.S…… the games over
NS2 is going ahead regardless.
And remember China stands with Russia
If Russia falls Xi knows China will be next
So don’t expect any countries coming to Ukraine’s aid …. the consequences would be catastrophic for the whole world, especially Uncle Sam !
People underestimate the ruthlessness of the cabal in control of NATO in their amoral approach to their objective. It can be seen in the gratuitous obliteration of Libya. Same class of people who had undefended civilian German towns and villages fire bombed. Nuclear incineration of Japanese cities occupied by women and children.
The cabal controlling NATO has set Putin up as the new Hitler and Ukraine is the new Poland with Donbass to be Danzig and Bromberg.
What this psycho cabal is waiting for is for Putin to rush to the assistance of Russian in Ukraine to get the entire US industrial might into an operation to obliterate Russia once and for all.
We all hope Putin and the Russian people are aware of this.
Best thing is for Russia to treat the Ukrainian Russians as refugees and let them stream into Crimea and help them to settle there or in greater Russia.
What about a false flag ukronazi attack (sea mines) on a nato ship which will be blamed on Russia?
There’s a history of Ukronazi false flags, after all, and as FDR showed us, the USA is more than willing to sacrifice a few thousand of its men in order to provide an excuse for entry into war.
Liana is fully operational in passive signint-recon part. I suspect one of the Pions may be already in orbit, add here other Recon assets, including but not limited to A-50 AWACS patrols and we are talking about real to near real time operational picture and targeting. So, crushing Ukies’ command and control system is a matter of few hours, be that near border or in the operational and strategic Uki depth. Basically speaking, the whole of Ukrainian “navy” is worth less that the salvo of 3M54 or 3M14 which will be required to sink it. I think couple of Tarantuls will be enough to finish it off in or near Odessa and then give Kiev, especially its government district, a taste of modern stand-off weapons. In related news, Russia already is cutting gas-transit through Ukraine and now Ukies…complain.
I think that the Georgia actions in 2008 are somewhat of a model to follow. Maybe, Saker, you can explain what Russia did in not only defending and defeating the Georgian army in the two breakaway republics but in crippling the Georgian army without a single loss or Russian life.
without a single loss? I recall Russia having at least a couple hundred casualties in the 2008 war.
No Russia did not have any casualties in South Ossetia and Georgia. But it was not the Russian Army that responded immediately to the Georgian invasion, during which the Georgians committed war crimes including killing the Russian peace keepers at the beginning, breaching a canal to flood apartment block basments in Tsinvali and then machine-gunning civilians as they came out on to the street fom those basements. Other apartment blocks were hit by Georgian tanks at close range. It was a series of Caucasus irregulars who responded immediately to keep the tunnel between South Ossetia and North Ossetia open and who used buses to ferry armed men into South Ossetia and women and chiidren out.
But the Russian armed forces had completed a major military exercise only a few days earlier that was apparently designed to warn off the Georgians from doing anything stupid during the Beijing Olympics. The Georgians then invaded, and Dmitri Medvedev did nothing. No orders were given until Putin returned from Beijing about 48 hours later. (The resulting slow reaction resulted in a lot of criticism in Russian armed forces’ journals and intiated serious reform, from which the Russian armed services have benefited greatly.)
Meanwhile, when the Georgian forces realised that the irregulars’ action meant that they would have trouble taking the tunnel, which was their main military objective, and that they were confronted by quite substantial infantry crying “allah is great!” they realised that they would soon be subject to Russian Aerospace bombardment without having sealed the land border (i.e. the tunnel). Knowling that there was no real cover in the relatively open valleys of South Ossetia, they abandoned their armoured vehicles and fled all the way back to Stalin’s birthplace, pursued by the irregulars in those same armoured vehicles, who held that line until the Russian armed forces turned up. They spent 3 weeks destroying the air base at Gori, because they knew that the Israelis had intended to use it as a base from which to attack Iran. [Israeli and US forces had been training the Georgians for some time prior to the invasion of South Ossetia.]
Tsinvali had not been expecting an attack. When a friend of mine who regularly researches the Caucasus phoned up from inside Russia to arrange some interviews, everyone in government had gone on holiday. So he flew to Yerevan and the Georgian attack took place overnight.
Crimea is in few km distance from Odessa.
Your opinion is as good as mine. Russia need to act from the position of strength to dissuade us/nato from taking more aggressive actions towards her
Russia & China sat & watched the US deep-state demonize & discredit Donald Trump for 4 years, and then rob him of an election victory with crooked machines & officials. All by design. R&C were not fooled one bit by all the “Russia-Russia-Russia” media disinfo…designed to keep Trump in line.
Trump wanted to make peace around the [much needed] recognition of a new multi-polar world; the US deep-state, is controlled by the military-industrial complex & certain Wall Street & Hollywood media interests (aka, Ashkenazi Jews who hate Putin & Co for thwarting their plans to pillage Russia).
What we’ve arrived at is where “the rubber meets the road”, i.e. no more bullsh*t, time to put-up or shut-up.
Russia should insist on the following: No more sanctions on anyone, or anything (i.e. Nord Stream 2), Ukraine can join the EU but never NATO, Russia keeps Crimea (theirs since 1790), Ukraine gets Donbass, etc. but no more crypto-Nazi administration, it gets “Home-rule” powers. Ukraine can access the Sea of Azov, but can never arm its side & prevent access to Russia’s Eurasian Canal.
While what’s coming could be a dramatic positive breakthrough in EU-Russia relations, I’m still “taking Missouri Citizenship”, given the lying sacks-o-sh*t in charge of the USG today.
I strongly disagree. Russia will be demonized and hit with sanctions, regardless of what it does. Donbass at the minimum, needs to be annexed. Would Donbass even accept Ukrainian rule?
If all the crimes inflicted upon Donbas were known, the global understanding amongst sane thinking individuals would be that they will never again accept being under Kiev’s authority. The sickest things imaginable have been perpetrated and it is commonly done to Donbas. Donbas has earned a place in Russia if they want. They have suffered greatly and the West paints them as the bad actors is absolutely revolting.
“aka, Ashkenazi Jews who hate Putin & Co for thwarting their plans to pillage Russia”
Yes good point and Madeleine Albright can be quoted here as she publicly lamented that “Russia was being unfair as it has all these vast resources that it was unwilling to share with the USA.”
It raises the question as to what the US have done with their own “resources.” A good indicator is the amount of waste produced per capita. The average for the US is double that of the average European and waste produced per capita in Russia is 75% of that of the average European level. Maybe a period of economic hardship in the US will concentrate minds. Maybe if they were less obese there would not be this fundamentalist gluttony to take over other countries resources?
Race war by English and anglos on other Races of the humanity.
The they have also grabbed the biggest land mass of earth in Australia Canada and USA as illegals.
england stole the lands of australia, canada, usa, greenland, hawaii, guam, in less then 500 years ago 37 millions square kilometers of stolen lands should be taken back from the anglo pirate race and give back the lands to the right full owners
So the world needs to be prepared to
confront that evil.
China, Russia and Iran should support native Indians in North America, aboriginals in Australia, moaris in new Zealand and Polynesians and Samoans in Hawaii. And force the USA UK to return the stolen lands of 37 million square kilometers.
Aeu, considering all the “English and anglos” that were also targeted in regime change wars, as well as the multi-racial composition of world oligarch forces and proxy forces, I call shenanigans on the “race war” angle. The issue was always ideology and choices, or as George Orwell termed it, “not father-to-son inheritance, but the persistence of a certain world-view and a certain way of life.”
That is not new either. For example, during the War of 1812, there were thousands of Native Americans who sided with England against the US. Moves like that helped return the US to unofficial colony status.
And if we look far earlier, the establishment of wealthy elites who use their money and influence to “devour widows’ houses” (Mark 12 v.40), then manipulate government and the public to silence, crucify opposition can be traced back to the ancient Hebrew money changers and chief priests. What race or ethnicity were they? Because it was whatever Jesus was…
Russia could make those demands. the US, the EU and NATO could even agree to them. But Russia knows that these countries and NATO are agreement incapable now and could never be trusted to keep their word.
No, it is time now for Russia to assert herself, take Ukraine up to the Dnieper and guarantee her own security as well as that of the Russian people of Donbas and other parts of Eastern Ukraine. She can give Western Ukraine back to Poland and Romania and let them deal with the nazis.
Hello guys, any telegram channel with the news of the area that we can follow in first hand, to know what is going on? It is hard to find out latest developments from conventional media.
Try South front.org
Thank you, South front.org is great and I already follow them. I was wondering if the guys there in the front or closer inhabitants are not streaming almost real time updates…
Any other suggestion?
Broadcasting account “from the guys there in the front” would not be counterproducent due the current state of affairs? In a US blog….
There is a Greek site – not entirely certain of its accuracy, but I have seen little indication that it is a fake news site.
Youo will have to use a translator on it, unless you read Greek of course…;-)
Try this, although some browsers will try to block you. It has events reported with the precise geographical location of the source:
One can spot troop movements and various flights on this site.
This thing will go hot nuke within minutes and be over in an hour.
You could be right. One false flag attack (perhaps by CIA, Mossad or ‘Erdogoon’ intel agents) on NATO ships in The Black Sea, and ship cannons go roar at Russia. The Western banking cabal are desperate as the angloZionist banking system has reached insolvency and breakingpoint. They need distraction for their masses for having robbed them of their wealth and future.
Yes the Western financial system is at the point of collapse. The silver squeeze will ignite a trail of powder running to the multi trillion dollar gold and treasury bond derivatives complex which has supported the value of worthless fiat for 50 years. The major banks will collapse, no bailout can save them. Except JP Morgan with its huge silver stash.
The West needs a distraction and excuse for this financial cataclysm. War is it. All the pieces are in place thanks to COVID, citizens have repatriated themselves so fewer hostage situations aka internment camps.
Russia needs to stop pretending, faking and should liberate all of Ukraine from the Nazis, allow free elections, and then withdraw its army to Russia. After that, the referendum on joining Russia should be organized by the Ukrainians themselves. As for the Nazis, a blockade on the border with Poland and Romania so that they cannot escape and judge everything in a short procedure. For minor crimes, life imprisonment working on the reconstruction of Donbas and Lugansk, more serious crimes ….. it is known. Very simple, but everything is in question when it comes to the Valdai regime. The chair is shaking after so many wrong moves and compromises, war is not a bad way to get out and enable the survival of a parasitic oligarchic system.
Assuming that ukr population will not re-elect the same neo nazis is a bit naive I think….they will do so and then ” free and democratic elections” will have authorised further anti russian actions…..Nato will fast track membership etc. And have every reason to move in and “defend “Ukraine completely.
Russia is part of the SCUN and has an obligation to protect its people. NATO will not defend Ukraine, that is the excuse of the apologist Kudrin-Sreder situation in which Russia finds itself. Full stop. The Serbs beat them when they were the strongest, they were to scare to go by land (estimates were 70-100 thousand dead), so they bomb us from ten thousand meters. They did not pass from Albania, but rather the Serbian army entered Albania. Russians and Serbs are only betrayed by politicians at the green table because of their personal and international interests. If the Russians take care of that, they will border with whomever they want. And they will not be deprived of the right of veto in the SCUN, nor will they be expelled from the Council of Europe, as the apologists for plundering and belittling the Russian people are lying.
What if ukrainians does not want to be liberated? I’ll give you an example by asking one simple question: did anti-Serbs (croats and muslims) wanted to be liberated from Nazis during 2nd WW?
Does serbians in Serbia want to be liberated from EU and ‘muricans occupation?
Answer on both questions is: NO!
In any war, serbians did not liberate themselves by intensively hating occupational forces by hiding in basement. This is what we currently do …
Who cares? The force does what it wants. Russia is a military power. It is a shame that NATO posers are playing at its borders. The Americans will not do anything, their goal is to quarrel the Slavs, the Russians among themselves. The same was in the Balkans. They don’t have the people or the ba..lls for war with Russia. As for Ukraine, the longer Russia waits, the more people will be de-Russified. An example are again Serbs of three religions in the Balkans. That was the Allen Dulles plan. That is what the Putin regime in one way or another supports. It buys time for Western Atlanticists. Without people, Russia disappears like the Balkans does, which is dying because young people are fleeing to the west, remain pensioners. Russia is dying demographically.
Of course, how would they want to get rid of it if it’s a load-bearing structure?😏
Around 70% of Ukrainians support the war in Donbass (Please link proof to this statement. Mod. ) and a democracy would reflect this
Why should Russia invade just to have its occupying soldiers assassinated and killed by Ukrainian resistance fighters? Counterinsurgency operations in a massive country full of NATO weapons and nationalist militias would be a disaster.
A survey a few weeks or months ago(but quiet recent)gives the former ‘parti of the regions'(pro russian)a confortable majority in all of Ukraine except in Galicia(where Porky is leading).If they would have a free election, the would gain the power in the V Rada and then in a new government.The 1000 dollars question is: who to become president of this failed state?Untill the milicias(P Sektor and all are alive), it is not possible to have a stable and reliable one.Don’t forget these people have been brainwashed 24/7 for almost 7 years since the Maidan.Most don’t know the true situation of the country and in the Donbass.They just read, listen to fairy tales every day.It is not so easy to ‘denazify’ a country(see Germany after 1945).
the correct figure is 40%
and yes, I am sure that they would love a short and triumphant war against the hated Moskals.
then, we the power goes off, these same people will demand peace
and it shall be too late
It is huge percentage.
That’s why I always say- leave them alone, and that’s it.
Russia should better protect LNR and DNR and nothing else.
Also they should stop talking about MINSK agreement and about reintegrating LNR and DNR into Ukraine even under special status.
It is impossible after all
40% seems to be the universal constant – the share of gullible morons in the general population. Like, people who watch TV and believe all the propaganda there.
Like, US has 40% Democrats.
Russia cannot afford to play around with NATO. She needs the space of Ukraine to give her maneuvering room.
No, she doesn’t need the headache of dealing with the UkroNazis, but one comes with the other.
What to do??
Bring in the Chinese to create a De-Nazification program similar to Xhingjang’s.
Push the Nazis to escape into Poland to the extent possible.
It’s most likely, Russia need take the Balkans back, too.
Being villified is not really that bad…. particularly by 900 million people with dying energy reserves…
No means of making Titanium metal…. No rare earths… planes that shoot themselves down by their own cannon fire… CVNs with catapults that don’t work. Front line fighters designed in the 70s. DDGs designed in the 70s. Uniforms made in China. an MBT designed in the 70s.
Go read what Andrei has written….
Maybe we could learn something from history, what do you think? When Tito entered the Chetnik country of Serbia with the partisans after World War II, he had less than ten percent support. In one generation the vast majority became proletarian. Please check. Why do you think so? Do you think that 40% is not enough, that they should be given the land for which the Russians died for centuries? Ukraine is not the end, the Baltic is also in game, Moldova. And Scandinavians could also think well, their north is vulnerable, uninhabited. We have lived on the planet of war for 4 and a half thousand years, since Sargon. All peace between wars is preparation for a new war. The philosophy of international associations does not hold water. Their stupidity is paid for by Russian lives. The facts show it. Nationalism is an immune system for every nation and state.
respectfully no. Freedom is most valued when earned, not given.
If the FSB, together with the Ukro SB service, had not killed the battalion leaders in order to pass talks on gas flows, the East of Ukraine would already be in Kiev today. There would be casualties, but not as much as they scare the people. Most would cross over to the Russian side. The source of the Russian problem in Ukraine are corrupt and blackmailed Russian politicians who make compromises with the West. The West, which has been killing the Russian people for centuries. Anglozionists and Vatican use the Turks, the Germans. They are smart, they are not as limited or cruel as Turks or Germans … they use similar peoples or ethnicities to solve the problem. An example is Pakistan – India. Russia is passive with this regime, and that is why a situation of hopelessness is being created. What are the Russian media doing? Here ……. https: //www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/02/putin-named-russias-hottest-man-a73452. Tito came to Russia after Yugoslavia. Personality cult. Whose project do you think Tito was? Think about.
From my Moscow correspondent:
“The beginning of a war between Russia and Ukraine is very likely. The Ukrainian army and its nazi groups have intensified shootings of Lugansk. It looks as [if] they have prepared a kind of blitzkrieg to take over the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. The Ukrainian preparations to the war are well known, but it may happen that if the attack begins, it will be a replication of Saakashvili’s “blitzkrieg” of 08.08.08. P. promised in his interview last year that in such a case Ukraine may lose its statehood. Such an outcome may be very serious for the Ukraine, but I believe that in any case this war will not transform to a military conflict between Russia and NATO. If the local conflict begins, Russia will get a new portion of sanctions from the USA including, possibly, the switch-off from SWIFT, but I don’t think this will be crucial for the Russian economy.”
Thank you for this update. Russia has already setup alternative internal payment system completed in 2018, I believe…and international payment system with China. Europe needs cheap Russia gas, otherwise, China is a big enough consumer of Russian gas and oil.
Very similar to pre-WWI situation. Germany was riding technological power challenging British Empire, so something had to be done…China rising power, so Western banking cabal could lose world domination. So some fireworks needed?
A potential Donbass blitzkrieg will be a replication of the Georgian (2008) and Croatian (1995) blitzkriegs. In all these cases they were planned and assisted by Nato. Ukraine was preparing for this event for years just like Croatia, now with Biden as president they have a greenlight.
I miss Trump already.
Ukraine 2021 and Croatia 1995 are two completely different stories.
Stop comparing these two situations. They have nothing in common
If those in Kiev think that they can repeat Operation Storm from 1995, then they are more stupid than anyone could suppose.
Exactly the same revival of ww2 era axis sentiments in both countries willing to forcefully convert one part of their population. Even Ukraine says they see in Croatia an example how to deal with a part of their population.
Operation Storm was repeated in Georgia 2008 with Nato planning of course.
Ukraine was the first country to recognize Croatia, even before the Germans, while war was still raging.
Operation Storm 1995 was only possible because the Milosevic regime in Serbia had signalled clearly to the Croatian government that Serbia would not send in any forces. The entire thing was supervised by the US, Richard Holbrooke later acknowledged that he ordered Franjo Tudjman to lay off advancing the Croatian military to Banja Luke after Milosevic threatened to send in Serbia’s main forces. What this meant in short, that without Serbia standing down, the Croatian advance would not & could not have taken place.
Wow, I didn’t know that.
I immediately noted how quickly the Germans recognized Croatia.
Si les neocons veulent la guerre avec la Russie il n y a aucune garantie qu une intervention russe en ukraine reste limitee a l ukraine.
Le risque d escalade ne peut pas etre exclu. L intervention russe pourrait etre utilisee pour justifier la guerre contre la Russie que les neocons veulent depuis des annees.
Etant donne que les neocons ne sont pas des acteurs rationnels si la Russie decide d intervenir elle doit le faire en se preparant a une risposte de l otan sur toute sa frontiere occidentale de la norvege a la mer Noire. C est le scenario du pire mais avec les neocons le pire ne peut pas etre exclu.
Yandex translation. Mod:
If the Neocons want war with Russia there is no guarantee that Russian intervention in Ukraine will remain limited to Ukraine.
The risk of escalation cannot be excluded. Russian intervention could be used to justify the war against Russia that the Neocons have wanted for years.
Since the Neocons are not rational actors if Russia decides to intervene it must do so by preparing for a Nato response on its entire western border from Norway to the Black Sea. This is the worst case scenario but with the neocons the worst can not be ruled out.
Or the US will stage a false flag to draw all of nato in to this mess.
My bet is sinking of a navy ship (USS Liberty 2.0)
It can be a norwegian frigate in the north sea, or a greek/turkish ship in the mediterranian sea. Blame the russian submarines, and call it «article 5».
Another scenario is WEF’s Klaus Schwab and his «cyberpandemic». Knock out all of the electricity in europe for a few days/week. Restore it, say you have proof it was the russians and call it «article 5» and everybody is on board…
Either way, it’s now or maybe never again. The US will implode before the next opportunity like this one.
In fact, there is a cyberblackout “exercise” planned for this July, thus, may be there will be skimirmishes till then and the outcomes balmed on Russia…..
We know already what came after the “pandemic exercise”…The SWIFT will change for everybody one way or the other….
To corroborate your point…Albert Pike three world wars planned over 12 years (1859-1871) and then sent Gisseppe Mazzini (Italian Freemason leader)…from “Pawns in The Game” 1958, William Guy Carr. Hopefully, God Almighty will intervene with supernatural event to foil the satanic elite’s plot…in order for the earth not to be contaminated with radiation, because Prophet Jesus (peace be upon him) has been prophecied to Rule with Divine Justice from Jerusalem for 40 years. God-Willing!
Oh, please not Albert Pike again!
I’m completely agree with you. This is the scenario most likely in my own opinion. There’s no question if ns2 will be cut the goal is to weak the Russia economy as other sanctions do. The real target is destroy Russia because is an obstacle for usa-nazi empire hegemony.
“There’s no question if ns2 will be cut the goal is to weak the Russia economy as other sanctions do.”
Although i accept your point that the aim of the sanctions is to achieve this goal, this logic doesnt hold. A western induced cut to NS2 is a breach of contract and Russia has the right to compensation…so where is the loss? (Remember the helicopter carriers that Hollande refused to deliver the Russia? The Russians GAINED from the sanctions and subsequent compensation payments, more than they paid for the carriers). Sales of Russian oil and gas can simply be redirected east, towards Asia (which will be happy to have less going through the Suez Canal)…so Russia would de-facto not be weakened…it has often enough been pointed out that Europe needs Russia more (for the cheap oil and gas and as an export market for cars and industrial goods) than Russia needs Europe (for extortionately priced luxuries it can well do without, or source from Asia instead). It has also been pointed out many times on this Blog, that Russia has actually gained from the sanctions through the programme of import substitution. The last major retaliatory sanctions introduced eg against imports of Polish apples and Turkish tomatoes and chicken imports from the USA, shows clearly that these measures can backfire, to Russias full advantage….
While sanctions may be impeding to some extent an acceleration of Russian economic growth, they can do no more than that. Russia has become a stronger, more resilient economy because of sanctions, which galvanised it to deal with some outstanding problems. In the case of Nord Stream 2, the total investment is 9.9 billion Euros, of which about half is being incurred by EU companies. The Russian investment has been financed out of prior profits, whereas the EU partner companies have financed their investment out of debt. So they will be harder hit than say Gazprom by the blocking of the completion of this gas pipeline.
Furthermore, the resulting ongoing loss of part of a cheap gas supply will make EU indUstry less competitive on the global market. The EU has already lost many billions of Euros since 2014 because of sanctions. They may not be able to defy the USA if Nord Stream 2 is closed down owing to a conflict in Ukraine that the US is organizing, but it will come at quite a cost to the EU economy.
@ breach of contract and Russia has the right to compensation…
Strange that nobody think of that. Contracts are just pieces of paper!
Every countermeasure against LDNR territory should be deployed from inside the LDNR territory, not from outside. I sincerly hope LDNR forces have received, over the last years, sufficient amount of modern weaponry.
Be prepared. Be prepared. Be prepared. And pay no mind to “public opinion” in western europe.
Western Europe and the United States are closed boxes. They are in media lockdown. The stories on “Russian Aggression” have probably already been written and they are just waiting for Ukraine to commence the war.
The media response should be fourfold.
1) Get out the message to Africa as to what is really going on.
2) Get out the message to Asia as to what is really going on.
3) Get out the message to Latin America as to what is really going on.
That is the world that really counts since those are the peoples starting to re-align away from the West.
4) get out the message to alternative media in the West. More and more, the citizens in the West despise their governments – and they don’t believe anything that the legacy media says. They are ready and eager to hear the truth.
Just remember that all they control is Zone A.
In Zone B the info freely flows
I’m living in France. Watched French state TV (antenne 2) the last days at prime time (20 h): nothing about this news!
There must be an order from Macron to keep silent.
Had a look on German Google news yesterday: I had to dig to find 2 newspapers taking about “Russian agression”.
Went to the comments sector of Die Welt: most comments disliked the agressive nonsens of the author. Most upvotes on commenters who “knew” reality. Had again a look now:more articles, all talking about “EU behind Ukraine”, nothing about the reasons and war laws /declarations/ war moves of Zelensky.
Nor to any propaganda that flows out of them neither the French nor the Germans wish to get into any kind of war with Russia for that would be self-defeating for them, from what I read much of the German military equipment is not in very good shape much of it needing repairs before it can move, I don’t know about the French but then again I don’t think the French themselves know about the condition of their military equipment, England well they are of not much concern even tho they act as if were still the old English empire, so they could be written off.
Russia should also,
1. Right after the taking of the full provinces Of Donetsk and Lugansk by LDNR forces do a Crimea-style referendum and make these a part of Russia.
2. Declare Ukraine and the western vassals aggressor countries and repeat ad infinum. The other side will be doing the same, but Russia should not let them control the narrative.
3. Destroy all major westward infrastructure so nothing major comes in and resupplies them.
4. Target all airports so the ruling elite have nowhere to run. They will still run, but it will take time.
Donetsk & Lugansk held their own referendums already. Initially in 2014 as I recall to become autonomous provinces within Ukraine (like Crimea about >95%) approval and then in intervening years I think to join Russia – again similar voting results.
Russia declined the request. The Western media & politicians would’ve gone apoplectic, sanctions to the moon, end of Nord Stream 2, no World Cup, plus NATO would possibly have had legal capacity to incorporate Ukraine.
#4 is the key. Chickenhawks will be chickenhawks until they are forced to put some skin in the game-Which of course they won’t
You raise a vital issue here, which most readers have missed: When anyone talks of the Donetsk and Lugansk, the reality is that only 50% of the original political regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk have gained independence. The first action of any countermeasures by Donetsk and Lugansk must be to secure their original territory. The geography dictates this: it is the first buffer zone protecting Rostov on Don and this is also one of the reasons why the Russians have supported the Donetsk and Lugansk…not just the concept which is often voiced by the Russians that “the people need to show first that they want to help themselves”
Also the recriminations which are often mentioned, also on this website, that Russia should have integrated the Donetsk and Luganks republics when the former requested this, makes some sense in the short term but would not have prevented further NATO encroachment but more than likely encouraged it. By keeping Donetsk and Lugansk inside the Ukraine political circle, as well as the Minsk Agreement, Russia has neutralised the Ukraine and NATOs predatory tactics to a stalemate. Unfortunately the cost has been 14,000 innocent lives of citizens. So my own take on the situation is, sanctions or no sanctions, western media hysteria or not, NATO warnings or not, NS2 or not, Russia should do what it needs to do and create new facts on the ground and take back all its historic lands to the west of Russia…. The question then, is only, when is the red line crossed, which will trigger a full Russian response…. That is up to the Kremlin alone to decide.
As for the comments about whether the Ukraine is worth taking back or not, the reality is that there is a sizeable ethnic Russian population still in there, which is as worthy as all the Ukies that have fled to Russia since 2014 and now fully integrated inside the Russian economy and the land and mineral wealth is also a worthwhile resource to take back where it once was.
The recriminations and sanctions, and isolation attempts will go on, and on…..
Might as well improve the strategic situation, and manpower situation, and resource situation to the extent possible.
Go completely assymetrical and leave the ukronazis with such heavy losses that they beg for ceasefire. Show no quarter. Perhaps take out water and electrical infrastructure, see if the west will come rebuild.
No more ceasefires. Ceasefire in a war == resupply and continuation of the war. Go all the way to Kiev if you have to, but never back down.
Maybe like do a false flag of their own type asymmetrical? It wouldn’t have to be deadly, just egregious and potentially disastrous, like a failed ‘attack’ on the Kerch Strait bridge. Blame the Ukros, cry it from the rooftops and don’t let up as you take appropriate defensive actions and accomplish whatever goals deemed necessary.
Two can play that game, you know. Also, if this thing drags on, that very thing will be done to Russia (again).
Crush all enemies.
See them driven before you.
Hear the lamentation of the women.
If the conflict escalates beyond the current border posturing, then Russia must act with confidence and determination.
1. Destroy all heavy artillery and missile launchers at the point of contact using Russian superior firepower.
2. Target any military airfield in range with long-range ballistic missiles.
3. Sink all hostile ships near the borders of Crimea and Novorossiya. And by all, I also mean the ships of NATO countries. No more impunity for the army of Satan.
After that, it is easy pickings for the army of LNR and DNR against crippled Ukro-nazi child killers.
All Ukranian ammo dumps would need to be destroyed as well, easily done with cruise missiles or UAV’s.
Ukraine is ruled by Jewish oligarchs and politicians, the neonazis are just low level cannon fodder.
“All Ukranian ammo dumps would need to be destroyed”
I disagree…no need to destroy what is a useful resource…and this issue has always fascinated me: The Ukie ammo dumps are basically the forward ammo stores of the former Warsaw Pact. Post 1990 – i recall the Czech republic as one example – sold off their stocks of Soviet hardware to NATO or on the open market…NATO gleefully boasted in the 1990s of the vast amount of material that they had gained without firing a shot…this was repeated in East Germany, Romania, Bulgaria etc…but, within the Ukraine, whilst the nuclear equipment was dismantled, these forward staging ammo dumps were kept intact…to this day…in the last major battle, the Ukies helped themselves to some of the equipment…but the DLPR also helped themselves to the dumps. Maybe there is a difference there in the mindset? The UKies and Russians view such a valuable resource as worth keeping just in case… whilst the western mind thinks only of destroying what is useful to an enemy? I recall that Russia was able to use a vast amount of WW2 munitions in Syria, essentially a resource that was still very useful and operational… so it seems that the Ukies always respected their own ammo dumps and never destroyed them or sold them off…ergo: it is not the military and their equipment which are the problem in the Ukraine…: it is alone the politicians and oligarchs that create the problems who should be eliminated…
Greetings of Peace, The Saker, all good point above. Russia’s choices are limited and do whatever it takes to preserve it’s territorial integrity…short of igniting a nuclear armageddon…which is what the Western thugs are looking for…now that the Western elite have amassed massive material wealth (but bankrupt in their souls and moral compass), using the labour/sweat of the middle class…to bankrupt and subjugate the Western middle class into hightech slavery through an economic collapse (due not just Covid but war to cancel the unpayable debts and liabilities owed in retirement promises), and acquire what remains of their assets through bankruptcy.
Some courageous leader in the world needs to stand up to the satanic banking cabal in the world, and do things right. If not Xi Jumping, it might as well be master chess player and karate black belt, His Honourable, President Putin.
God Almighty created human being as free servants to serve HIS Cause of Love, Mercy, Kindness, Generosity, taking care of the weak and indigent, spreading everything that is good and soulfull…but these cannot be achieved without removing major injustices through bravery and courage to do the right thing when it comes to that. May God Almighty give us courage to do the right things at the right moment, Amen.
Personally, I’m feeling optimistic. This whole vile rubbish strikes me mostly as a tiresome rehash of imperialism’s flop in Belarus back in August 2020. Lots of noise and cheap provocations, not least by the brave Poles, but Lukashenko and the Belarusian KGB, duly supported by Russia, put down the nonsense swiftly and resolutely. I will never understand why these Western apeshit stunts elicit so much fear and anguish around here. The US neocons and their disciples abroad have no other ”recipe for victory” than omnicide — end of all life on planet Earth. They have neither any wits, nor any interest that would truly consolidate Western imperialism. It’s game over, essentially.
It all makes sense Saker. The Ukrainian forces have been better equipped & trained by NATO over the past 6 years since the Minsk II ‘ceasefire’ and could make inroads into Donetsk & Lugansk with an ethnic cleansing genocidal campaign. Russia needs to nip it in the bud.
If any new readers here think Saker’s use of terms like ‘Ukronazi’ indicates some bias or racism, then you need to brush up on history and disentangle your mind from the mainstream propaganda.
The coup government installed in Kiev in February 2014 with the aid of the Obama-Biden Administration was openly far-right, extreme nationalist & openly Nazi in composition.
Their leaders & supporters engaged in large rallies shouting slogans like “Impale all Moscowvites (basically Ukrainians who identify as ethnically Russian or prefer Russian language or worship in Russian Orthodox Church) on knives(bayonets)!” They also called them “cockroaches” and there was language about “exterminating” them or at least forcing them to flee across border to Russia. Two to three million did. This Russophone & Russian Orthodox populace is half the population of Ukraine that was vilified, the vast majority in the south & east of Ukraine at the time, well over 90% in Crimea & Donbas.
Almost the first law of the CIA colour revolution installed Kiev regime in 2014 was to ban the use of Russian language in schools and government offices. Despite the fact that in the south and east many people were not fluent in Ukrainian.
Three massacres of ethnic/cultural-Russian Ukrainian citizens took place from February to May 2014 that were semi-officially supported or at very least allowed by the coup government in Kiev and were cheered on by nationalist media:
* In Kherson north of Crimea a busload of the deposed Yanukovich Party of Regions, overthrown by the coup who were returning home to Crimea were stopped by a ‘Right Sector’ Nazi militia (replete with WW-II Nazi insignia and several clubbed to death;
* In Mariupol in Donetsk province, similar militia killed police & army recruits who were deemed too sympathetic to Russia;
* In Odessa somewhere between 45 (official) to 200 (the number missing) people, who had been protesting against the coup, were clubbed & burnt to death in the Trade Union Hall where they sought refuge from the same militia & a mob from western Ukraine.
The Kiev coup government made statues, holidays, streeet names & medals to glorify the Nazi leader Stepan Bandera who collaborated with Hitler during WW-II and whose Ukrainian SS troops were responsible for WW-II massacres of ethnic Poles, Jews, Russians, Ruthians, Hungarians & Gypsies with the aim of creating an ethnically ‘pure Ukraine’. The Nazi battalions have been incorporated into the Ukrainian Army replete with Nazi SS insignia.
These are the people held up as ‘democratic’ by our Mockingbird media and politicians following the globalist NWO line, Chief of whom is Obama’s former “point man in Ukraine”, then VPOTUS Joe Biden. Whose son & brother made $millions corruptly from deals done with the coup leaders as ‘kickbacks’ for installing them to power. John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi’s family & friends also were involved in similar deals.
No surprise that it hasn’t taken long for Joe Biden to ramp things up again.
Biggest NATO war games since fall of the Soviet Union that will involve militaries & territories of Ukraine, Moldova & Georgia due to start within few weeks, NATO fleet entering Black Sea. Rumours of Turkey transporting jihadists from Syria to assist the Ukrainian military.
The powers that be are making full use of Puppet Biden. These are the financial oligarchs of the City of London, Wall Street & Brussels/EU/Switzerland. They need Russia’s great resources to reboot the debt-ridden Ponzi fiat $£€¥ scheme before it collapses.
To understand the Ukrainian nationalists of Galician western parts – it is true that up until the 1930s, Ukrainians of what is now Western Ukraine were themselves periodically oppressed & denied nationhood by the Poles, Lithuanians, Russians and Stalin in particular (who was Georgian & oppressed everybody in the USSR) – and derive their fierce Nazi nationalist ideology from a victimhood history (like many nations have). But there’s really no excuse for 21st century genocidal ideologies.
During this long war in the Donbas, the atrocities against prisoners & civilians appears far far worse by the Kiev regime side, though in war they end up going both ways. Ukrainian conscripts have usually been quickly released home but Nazi battalion soldiers receive a similar treatment to that which they deal out
Russia has to put a quick decisive end to any Kiev regime attacks. Before the full NATO war game. It will save more lives in the Donbas but could also save us all.
* correction – that should’ve been: busload of supporters of the deposed Yanukovich Party of Regions…
However the chief prosecutor in the Yanukovych administration was herself from Crimea. She wasn’t on the bus but returned in haste for safety to Crimea. She went on local TV to declare that the coup was illegal and given the Crimean province had firmly voted for the illegally & violently ousted government there was no legal imperative to accept the coup government installed by Biden-Nuland et al. Therefore the referendum. The rest is history. It was not an “illegal annexation” as is being reported a million times in the mainstream propaganda.
An extremely useful contribution …there are still too many who dont know the full facts.and this potted history lesson is an ideal summary, to copy and circulate more widely.
Cannot argue with anything you propose Saker, no credentials in this sphere. Just concerned for life.
Re point 1 : If Russia is to be labeled aggressor whatever happens they may as well be pro active and get in front of this. The Ukros have been escalating attacks for a while now, so there is moral justification. Save lives, attack when it suits Donbass/Russia, quickly and decisively.
How far should they push into Ukraine ? Here I’m way out of my depth. A DMZ from the Crimea to Kharkov enforced absolutely perhaps by a non UN appointed peace keeping force. Would give Donbass residents a modicum of safety. They deserve that after years of hell, and reinstate the water flow to Crimea.
Perhaps as others have commented an autonomous region with Russian help could be established. Germany and France should back this ….. they won’t.
The taking of Odessa at some point would be welcome (not to nato).
This really depends, also on what side attractions the broader enemy sets up, like attempted terrorist attack on Tver NPP a couple days ago. I’m always hoping a re-establishment of the full 1990 western border (which was pretty much the border between eurasia and the European meta-peninsula, shortest line between the baltic and black seas) could be coordinated with China re: Taiwan.
But this really depends. I will be permanently pissed off until my ancestral city of Odessa is safely in Russia. I believe the Donbass can halt any attack without an overt Russian hand. If Russia didn’t commit more in 2014, why should it now? I believe they are prepared and know what they are doing. If it was a mistake to get sucked into the war the mammonites want before, why not now? There is an argument to be made for the utmost forbearance. If they commit an act of war against the RF itself, well, that’s a different story, bye bye ‘ukraine’.
No Brasil é Domingo de Páscoa!
Vladimir Putin já disse várias vezes que Kiev é a Mãe de Todas as Cidades Russas… Essa pode ser uma boa oportunidade para retomar Kiev para a Mãe Rússia!
Paz de Cristo!
Glória Eterna à Eterna Rússia!
В Бразилии пасхальное воскресенье!
Владимир Путин несколько раз говорил, что Киев – мать всех городов России … Это может быть хорошей возможностью вернуть Киев матушке России!
Вечная слава Вечной России!
V Brazilii paskhal’noye voskresen’ye!
Vladimir Putin neskol’ko raz govoril, chto Kiyev – mat’ vsekh gorodov Rossii … Eto mozhet byt’ khoroshey vozmozhnost’yu vernut’ Kiyev matushke Rossii!
Vechnaya slava Vechnoy Rossii!
Google translate. Mod:
It’s Easter Sunday in Brazil!
Hello Saker Falcon!
Vladimir Putin has said several times that Kiev is the mother of all cities in Russia … This could be a good opportunity to return Kiev to mother Russia!
Eternal glory to Eternal Russia!
Here’s what I posted the other day at moon of alabama.
I’ve been giving thought today about what Russia would do if this thing kicks off. Lots of analysts as well as some commenters here have made a good case that Russia goes in; destroys the ukie army, and leaves. It’s well reasoned and relies on precedent of the Georgia war example, as well as arguments put forward by people like saker that Russia doesn’t need the headache of running Ukraine nor paying for the mess that the west made there. Hang it all around the neck of the collective west. But there is one more element to all this beyond the ulcer that Ukraine has become; beyond atrocities and killings and endless provocations. And that element goes right back to the main motivations of why the US instigated the coup in the first place; to pull Ukraine into the NATO orbit and then place missiles and troops in Ukraine. That is an existential threat to Russia. And Russia can’t allow that.
So let’s say Russia goes in, kicks ass and takes names, and then leaves. A lot of blood spilled, more sanctions, polarized global community, huffing and puffing, and the US scores a propaganda victory in the part of the world still under its control; which is still most of it. Not a great outcome for the risk taken. Let’s say Russia goes in, kicks ass , secures the Donbas up to its proper borders or, better yet, up to the dniepr, and declares this is a new state or this is now part of Russia. Now this is where it gets interesting.
I could see Uncle Sam balefully smiling and saying “ok, you win” and “gee Ukraine, tough break. But, oh hey! You no longer have a territorial issue so here’s an invitation to join nato!” And then proceed to move in troops, place short range or medium range nuclear missiles, throw more sanctions, get ns2 cancelled, etc. Does it really make a measurable difference if those missiles and nato forces are in the Donbas or Kharkov, or just west of Kiev? No, it doesn’t. Russia must guarantee that the threat from that quarter is nullified.
And so I believe that if this kicks off, Russia has to go for broke and settle this entirely in its favor. It rolls up to the western border of Ukraine, and behind that shield, it gets rid of the orc govt, and let’s a friendly Ukraine settle it’s issues and rebuild under Russian auspices, with Chinese money. And hence Putin’s warning abuout the future of Ukrainian statehood. Nothing else makes sense. So there it is, imho; Russia takes it all.
The question “what should the scope of the Russian reaction to a Ukronazi attack be?” is great, however the further question “what should the scope of the American reaction to a Russian intervention be?” should be asked, too.
Washington should have a plan of its own. I am afraid they are setting a kind of a trap for Russia (maybe attacking Russian forces in Syria – who knows?).
We (and Russia!) should be preparad for ALL outcomes.
1. I recall reading about the Russian Armed Forces communicating with their Turkish counterparts in Syria. Something about Turkish or Turkish-supported attacks. The Russian AF communicated the exact location of the Turkish equipment and let the latter form their own conclusions.
The attacks went silent. That’s the sort of warfare I like. Win without firing a shot. Of course we won’t hear about it until later.
2. I really think that every single non-Ukrainian captured ought to be paraded in front of the cameras and identified by country of origin, regular military or mercenary, etc., etc. Immediately begin war crimes tribunals. Get the show on the road. Everyone knows the belligerent chorus of “Russian aggression” is coming so why not get ahead of the curve a little and provide a little physical evidence of the contrary truth.
While there is no doubt in my mind that Russian can crush Ukraine out off the map within 24 hours, this might create highly undesirable global consequences, by providing the pretext the western block desires to further escalate things. Such consequences might range from kicking Russia out of the SWIFT system to a WW3.
With these in mind, I would propose that Russia use every possible means to maintain plausible deniability. I am not sure if this is possible, but perhaps, Russia should leave the fighting to the local militias while providing them intelligence and logistical support. History has shown that a lot can be done accomplished in an asymmetrical war, when the weaker party has not much to lose. Ukrainian energy production facilities, power distribution centers, communication centers, and transportation hubs, could all become valid targets, with minimal loss of life to both parties. Such a steady pressure would paralyze the Ukrainian economy.
At the same time, Donetsk and Lugansk should increase the soft power projection. They should create multilingual channels where they can provide the world with their own point of view, documented with irrefutable documents, and peppered with personal stories to create an emotional appeal. These channels should reinforce the idea that the people of Donetsk and Lugansk do not wish to fight their Ukrainian brethren, they just want to be left alone. These channels should aim to both enhance the relationship with their Ukrainian fellows and counterpoint the western belligerent mentality.
While Russia can certainly wipe out Ukraine, the possible consequences might be too much for such a direct approach. In my mind, it is better for Russia to maintain plausible deniability while providing every possible support to local militias.
Oh, please give me a break! There is no strategy, including doing nothing, that will result in Western propaganda sparing Russia from blame. The outline has already been shown, in that Western media has said nothing about the precursors to Ukrainian war making. The Western media only started reporting after the Russians started deploying forces near their own borders.
I will hereby wing it with my own speculations. Washington does not have a tactical or strategic plan. They only know how they will proceed, and that is based upon their total control of the narrative. I came up with this view after seeing the many operations they pulled on the US population which entailed so many stupid and easily preventable errors. It became clear their attitude is: mistakes are no threat to us. We will totally control the story line and can fix any error ex post facto.
As in so many areas of life, their greatest strength is their greatest weakness.
Absolutely Ed Walsh! I am with fellow commentator Skuppers on this one:
“Russia has to go for broke and settle this entirely in its favor. It rolls up to the western border of Ukraine, and behind that shield, it gets rid of the orc govt, and let’s a friendly Ukraine settle it’s issues and rebuild under Russian auspices, with Chinese money. And hence Putin’s warning about the future of Ukrainian statehood. Nothing else makes sense.”
No matter what Russia does it will be raked over the coals by Zone A. And living in Zone A my entire life, I can say that the “dumb ass Americans” George Carlin constantly ripped in his stand-up routines will eat it up. If you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t you might as well be proactive and “do”. Yes, there is a risk of this going nuclear but I doubt it. The Ukraine is not much more than a cat’s paw and the ‘mericans have shown that A. they do not have the boots to decisively win against lightly armed, but highly ingenious and motivated, insurgents in places like Afghanistan and Iraq much less at Russia’s doorstep and B. like the Wizard of Oz’s cowardly lion, they wish they had a heart. Whatever one may think of the January 6th siege of the Capitol, it showed that these people are inveterate cowards and so Putin’s warning that the next war would be fought on the other side’s lands will keep the invertebrates in check. It’s time for Russia to simply check-mate the Empire in the Ukraine. The ‘mericans and their lackeys are simply not agreement capable so why bother anymore. Next up: Taiwan.
I see a ridiculous attempt to recreate Barbarossa from the Baltic to the Black Seas. Except instead of a million men and the most industrially advanced military on Earth, small forces from Poland will try to “liberate” Belarus while Ukraine simultaneously tries to retake Crimea & LDNR. Minimal support will come from other NATO-aligned countries, and NATO ships will pompously try to stand off with the Black Sea Fleet; but hopefully there is at least one Vasilii Arkhipov amid the Empire’s ranks who will be smart enough to not let the shooting begin and Russia’s defense will win out along the entire line of contact within a matter of days.
I want to believe Alexander Mercouris is right and that we’ve already been to the brink and back, however I am not so sure he reckons how profoundly stupid someone like Blinken is.
What about Transnistria ? If the Ukronazi show up there?
On 4, could not Russia offer any population that its armies roll through, an honest referendum a-la that fabled UN Charter?
Granted no NATO aligned nation would give a hoot (whatever), and perhaps if sides boycotted Russia could just withdraw anyways to let them fester in their own idiocy, but is there no chance of Russia offering any population a true democratic option, at least there and then, on the ground?
(and on 4 iii) keeping even a fraction of the bread basket of Europe GMO free is not an insignificant aim, imo.
Saker’s suggestions are all appropriate and to the point. I would just like to add
11. Humiliate each and every NATO mercenary captured — including by a regime of 100% uncompromising non-anonymity. This would prove particularly effective on whatever soldiery there is from the Western countries proper.
What is the point of restraint if Russia is to be blaimed, sanctioned and eventually attacked anyway? If you face a bully mob alone, giving the biggest prick you see a knockout punch is your best chance to stay unharmed. And if you do face the fight, your chances to win will be best possible. The same applies to a pack of growling dogs, and will apply to NATO.
Russia should wait for a provocation and immediately go in with full force and everything available. They should not blink to anything until they kick every nazi to Galicia and liberate the rest of Ukraine, making sure to secure the border with Pridnestrovie.
Any face off during this actions should be dealt without any second thoughts: NATO aircraft – take it down, NATO ship – sink it.
After planned actions are set and done and if nuclear war was not started, send the message that Russia secured it’s people and vital national interest, so they can apply their sanctions if they like.
If great war happens, it would just prove it would happen anyway, but it did under Russian conditions and not after Russia bled from a thousand cuts trying to prevent it.
There is, however, a considerable chance the US and NATO puppets will just be struck with reality check they desperately need for a long time now.
No one likes to die. The ones who exploit this fact for decades need to be reminded of their own mortality before they lose last threads of sanity.
These are all basics of psychology that do apply to geopolitics. One cannot expect to be left alone if one does not defend itself hard enough.
Consider your first statement this way, Serb: “What is the point of restraint if Germany/Japan is to be blaimed, sanctioned and eventually attacked anyway?” Do most people know that Germany and Japan were hit with years of sanctions, propaganda, and provocations before World War 2 even began? (Like Russia is getting hit now?) Or do most people blame those countries for starting the war like the “international clique” oligarchs wanted people to do…?
A few countries cannot fight the entire New World Order on their own. Sun Tzu said, “Hence, though an obstinate fight may be made by a small force, in the end it must be captured by the larger force.” If the intent is for Russia to do better against the banker gangsters than their previous “axis of evil” countries did, then there needs to always be a mindset towards waking up everyone to who and what the real enemy is.
You are correct that we have “a considerable chance the US and NATO puppets will just be struck with reality check,” yet isn’t that largely due to Russia defusing the warmongering so over a decade of counter-propaganda can do work? As LDNR commander Alexey Mozgovoy said, before the Maidanites assassinated him: “War is the greatest injustice. We are not fighting the culprits. Those who pay, who incite, who use the media to make people turn against each other — this is who we should fight against.”
I totally agree with you Serb, totally !
Did not VP talked some time ago about his experience as a street fighter in his young years ? My father says the same and shares this same experience.
How do you prepare for 3 days of darkness ? Holy candles ? Prayers ?
Good to All of You and Good Luck
Geopolitics is not street fighting, Currahee, not unless you live on one of those streets where bullies provoke counter-attacks, show received injuries through the media, frame their victims as the aggressors, and use that narrative to turn more of the neighborhood against the victim…
There is a faction in the USA military that BELIEVE they can WIN a nuclear first strike against Russia…..that is what psychopaths these people are.
The people of Russia must never underestimate the will of those that want to subjugate them and steal their land out from under them.
These psycopaths will have no compassion when it comes to Russia and killing Russians.
Germany has long been subdued and remain lapdogs of the empire, enforcing their agendas and calling it freedom and democracy.
Look what chaos they have unleashed on the world over the last years. How many dead?
When the bully keeps on hitting you and hitting you, drop restraint turn around and give him a broken bloody nose.
Russia must be fast, precise, surgical, committed to her security and the defense of her people. Use your capability to decapitate this rabid dog at your door with minimum loss of Russian lives.
War was declared against Russia, if not by words but in deeds, long ago.
You already know they can’t be reasoned with.
Putin once said that if war is coming first strike is best option.
1.Russia should destroy all Ukrainian weapons sent to the eastern front before the war starts.
2.Destroy all NATO or American ships in the Black Sea.
3.Any B-52 bombers launched towards Russia should be shot down within minutes of launching.
4.Destroy all NATO bases in Europe.
5 If the Americans military brass start to fart over this take out all American military decision making sites in
Enough BS just get it over with.
Yakov Kedmi, former head of Israel’s intelligence service, said: “The training and motivation of Donetsk and Lugansk is two orders of magnitude greater. People’s republics have twice as many tanks and three times as much firepower as the Ukrofascists. There will be no war if Pentagon or Ukrainian leadership is in charge. From the spot, the commanders can fail, then there is war.
Kedi is only the former head of a organization to move Jews from Russia to Israel.
His expertise is close to zero.
Greetings from Canton Zurich. I studied Russian for ten years at school in Czechoslovakia, read Tolstoy and Dostoevskiy in the original and have several dozen Russian chess books. Also worked in Geneva for three years. Hope everything goes well. I have read every article on this site for years and thank you for your work.
We have a lot in common :-)
I was born in Zurich and we share the same first name.
Thanks for your kind words!
Yes (he kidnapped kids and trafficked them to Isreal – his work in the so called “secret service” NATIV) , but he has military experience. If I remember correctly, he was an officer in a tank battalion and fought against Egypt.
1. Russia Must attack first. – This will leave zero time for “europeans” to react. As well as ‘muricans. By the time they get together to discuss newly made “issue”, war will be over.
2. Russia Must make false flag operation accusing Ukraine of attacking Russia – this opens “moral” standing to kill all ukrainian officials and give support to ukrainian people to do the same.
3. All westerners embassies should be attacked by “local ukrainian” freedom fighters. – This is to prevent any intel spreading around because they will be busy with their own lifesaving efforts. Then, Russia will help them to evacuate. This will cause bander-fans panicking when they see their best friends are leaving … them alone with russians.
4. Close airspace over Ukraine and place blockade in Black sea. So, spectators can watch and be unable to do anything except complaining.
5. Russia should have infiltrated already inside ukrainian army. If they did not do anything like this now it’s too late.
6. Infiltrated takes command over ukrainian army and kill everyone who is bander-fan. If infiltration is not done, then just do it like russians did during 2nd WW: kill every moving officers of ukrainian army.
7. Take over government with support of the army.
This should cause minimal deaths on both sides. Ukrainians are slovens too! I do not want them to suffer.
Beyond the Donbass, where is Russian presence questioned by the West?
– The Kurils;
– South Ossetia/Abkhazia.
Better be prepared for “surprises” at all these fronts.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN2BQ0DX. regarding future NATO drills inside Ukraine. Biden’s last response to Zelensky was for him to take care of accountability and corruption in Ukraine probably because the Germans said—Nato? Ukraine? No f-ing way!
The idea in the mini minds of the West that they can use the Ukraine like Afghanistan to bleed Russia in any way whatsoever needs to be put to rest using whatever means necessary. The globalists do have some kind of “plan” with this aggressive line up along the Donbass borders which goes beyond just that. More to be revealed?
Russia might need to spend efforts Securing the water supply for Crimea, sealing off the nuclear ( 14 is is?) reactors and fumigating any Stage 4 bioweapons labs.
I don’t think this foul use of Ukraine stops just at the physical borders of Donbass or Russia.
After reading the following article I was reminded of an old US Army, FM 100-2-1 section 6 page 2 (Defense, withdrawal, and relief)
It appears to me that Russia is setting up a gigantic Fire Sack against Ukraine as a defensive measure and would be quite content to allow Ukrainian forces to march right in to it. Ukraine looks to be pressured by the U.S. to do so. Ukraine is being used like Poland was in the 2nd world war as an icebreaker. None of this bodes well for the Ukrainian people or potentially all the people of Europe. Stupid and I hope somebody will pump the breaks on the Empire’s designs. I doubt anyone in the Pentagon will listen at this stage though.
Here is the latest machine translated news from the blog of Colonel Cassad:
Briefly on the Donbass. 04.04.2021
1. Ukraine has imposed sanctions on Rossotrudnichestvo and a number of other Russian companies. The meaning of finding “Rossotrudnichestvo” in Kiev was lost in 2014, especially in 2021. An imitation of the presence and a target for various provocations. It is also worth noting that Kravchuk demanded to remove the representative of the DPR from the negotiations on the Donbass, threatening that while she will appear there, Ukraine will appear there. Will not be. An excellent reason for the DPR to declare that they will not talk to Ukraine in Minsk until Kravchuk is removed from there.
2.Videos of troop movements continue to be received from both sides. There are new military transport aircraft arriving in Ukraine, in particular C-17s from the United States to Lviv. According to Daniil Bessonov, there is a concentration of equipment in the Donetsk-Gorlovka and Bakhmut directions. The OSCE records various violations, but by and large no one cares about the OSCE. Complaining there is akin to writing exciting letters to Sportloto.
3. Today in the Donbass, another wounded civilian in the area of Nikolaevka. There are also reports that in retaliation for the child who died yesterday in Alexandrovka, a small observation post of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this direction was destroyed.
The military commander ” Mag ” reports that from March 26 to April 2, the AFU in the Donbass has 8 dead and 14 wounded (here most likely they will add suicides and those who were blown up by mines). According to the report of the DPR UNM, since June 2020, 183 people have been blown up by mines, 57 of them with ends. The 35th and 36th motorized infantry brigades suffered the greatest losses from mines. The first has 14 killed and 26 wounded, the second has 16 killed and 36 wounded). And this is in less than a year and only from mines.
4. In general, on the front line, a typical “positional” continues, where in recent days, barrel artillery has been added to small arms, AGS and mortars. At the same time, in the political rhetoric and media accompaniment, it is not difficult to notice the promotion of the thesis about the high probability or even the inevitability of a hot phase in the very near future. It is worth noting the position of France and Germany, which call for restraint, knowing full well that if a mess begins in the Donbass, they will be splattered with consequences.
People who can speak publicly on this topic with military authority and experience won’t, and probably shouldn’t (at least unless they subscribe to the Duke of Wellington’s “The only sight worse than the field of victory is the field of defeat”).
I have, though, a suggestion for the propaganda war, deriving from the US expression “Changing the colour of the corpses” in the Vietnam war, where it meant from white to yellow by “Vietnamisation” of combat forces. In the light of the appointment of the patently senile Biden as US president, a “front office honkie” for an anti-white administration which encourages anti-white racism (as Sergei Lavrov has noted), we should remember that the US military’s “boots on the ground” will be filled predominantly with brown and black feet. Having the casualties in the US’s last, desperate defence of “full spectrum global dominance” being from the white Ukrainian vassal rather than the multiracial US military will be greatly pleasing to the woke bigots in Washington. The Ukrainian military (brutalised conscripts for the most part) should be told this, perhaps by leaflets which can be passed from hand to hand, rather than electronic means which can be tracked. Perhaps they will learn to “frag” (kill from behind with a fragmentation grenade) any gung-ho officers.
The Ukraine is a fatuous country, an implausible pack of public lies for any visitor who has even a smattering of high school Russian.
Saker is on top, as always. Timely and correct statement of the question.
Undoubtedly, Russia will have to respond to the Ukrainian aggression very quickly and very powerfully. There are a thousand reasons for this; the defense of Donetsk and Luhansk is only one.
Let’s figure it out.
I believe that it is very important for Russia not to prolong this conflict, to resolve everything quickly.
It is extremely important to prevent the death of the Russian military. In direct battles with the Ukrainians, this will not work. Ukrainians will fight and there will be blood. I see several strikes on key targets in Ukraine using tactical nuclear weapons.
More precisely, I do not see how the issue can be resolved without the use of nuclear weapons here. There is no solution. I am very afraid that Putin may want to show leniency to the Ukrainian brothers, and there will be tanks instead of missiles. In the case of tanks, there will be a lot of blood on the part of Russia. At the same time, the Fifth and Sixth columns in Russia will rear up inside Russia and begin to sow confusion. You’ll get an internal front. The countries of the world that groan at the tyranny of the American regime and look at Russia with hope will look at the situation very carefully. If the game is played quickly, these countries will cheer up and come under the wing of Russia. And again, you need to win quickly and without losses. At the same time, no one in the world will count how many Ukrainians will die. The West will squeal in any case, and the non-aligned countries will not care – even if there are no Ukrainians left at all. It will be important for them to have before their eyes a successful model of opposition to Western tyranny from Russia, this is an example of hope.
I forgot to say the following: Russia will be forced to destroy several NATO ships in the Black Sea. If it does not do this, then the Crimea and the Crimean Bridge will be shelled from these ships. So there are no options here. It’s all very grim…
Thus, we see the limited use of nuclear weapons in Europe. All analysts see this as one of the options for the development of events. The Germans see, the French see. Where will the cloud go? What is the wind rose? The European economy will not be out of the saddle for 200 or 300 years. It will be out of the markets forever. Do the European elites want this? I don’t think. So I hope that negotiations are underway now. Although compared to the times of the Caribbean crisis, the person has become fundamentally stupid…
But I continue to hope that the collective Putin will make some political maneuver, and there will be no war. I hope God will take this trouble away.
Russia will not use nukes unless Russia proper is attacked.
From a June 2020 AP article: “President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday endorsed Russia’s nuclear deterrent policy, which allows him to use atomic weapons in response to a conventional strike targeting the nation’s critical government and military infrastructure”.
I believe the Russia policy is wise, and in this case no nukes will be needed. I don’t think Ukraine’s capabilities have improved much over the years.
Very strange timing no?
The US army “defender” of Europe arrives.
Playing with the myth of the US landings in Europe during the two World Wars, the US military occupies part of Europe by presenting itself as its “Defender”.
Not all of Europe is crippled by anti-Covid lockdowns: indeed the US Army’s annual exercise juggernaut, Defender-Europe, got underway until the end of June. It mobilizes on European territory, and beyond it, tens of thousands of soldiers with thousands of armored vehicles and other vehicles. The Defender-Europe 21 not only takes up the program of that of 2020, resized because of the Covid, but amplifies it.
Faced with the call for help from the allies, the US Army arrives to “defend Europe”. Defender-Europe 21, under the command of the US Army in Europe and Africa, mobilizes 28,000 soldiers from the United States and 25 NATO allies and partners: they will conduct operations in more than 30 training areas in 12 countries, including fire and missile exercises. The US Air Force and Navy will also participate.
In March, the transfer from the United States to Europe of thousands of troops and 1,200 armor and other heavy equipment began. They are arriving at 13 airports and 4 European ports. In April, from three pre-positioned US Army depots – in Italy (probably Camp Darby), in Germany and in the Netherlands – will be transferred to various training areas in Europe more than 1000 heavy equipment, which will be transported by coaches, trains and ships. In May, four major exercises will take place in 12 countries. In one, more than 5,000 troops from 11 countries will disperse across Europe for fire exercises.
Rooks, bishops and pawns align on the Grand Chessboard
BRICS Information Portal http://infobrics.org
1/ Ukraine and Moldova Jan18 /21
Meeting between Moldovan and Ukrainian leaders was to coordinate actions against Russia
……it is likely that Sandu and Zelensky discussed possibilities of joint pressure against Russia in Transnistria and Donbass.
Although Donbass is well known to Westerners, Transnistria is almost unheard of.
The small territory is wedged between Ukraine and Moldova.
It has a de facto independence but is internationally recognized as a part of Moldova despite the majority of the population being either Russian or Ukrainian.
It should be remembered that during last year’s election campaign, Sandu announced that she will focus on “eliminating the Russian military presence” without mentioning a political settlement in the Transnistrian dispute, thus threatening to warm up a frozen conflict. Given the geography, Ukraine and Moldova are able to blockade Transnistria. This would sever transport links and economic flows.
2/ Black Sea Feb 15/21
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba revealed details of his conversation with US. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Kiev, with the support of Washington, will start forming a trilateral military alliance comprising of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. Although Moldova is not directly on the Black Sea like Ukraine and Georgia, it does have relatively easy access via the Port of Giurgiulești on the Danube River.
The bold statements by Kiev’s leaders do not usually provoke significant global interest, but this is special as the order came directly from the White House.
3/Lithuania trains Ukraine Feb 3/21
Lithuanian military instructors trained the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UBS) last month as a group of specialists from the National Defense Volunteer Force, the Training Doctrine Headquarters, the GKS Air Base and the Engineering Battalion went to Ukraine.
The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense is attempting to bring the Ukrainian army closer to NATO standards by helping the reformation of military education and fund the training of Ukrainian officers at the Baltic Defense College.
Decision makers in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius think they can assist Ukraine in joining NATO.
(A 3min read, and the journo enjoys ironic understatement)
I know it won’t happen but I really, really wish Russia would take the opportunity to liberate all of southern Ukraine and physically link Novorossiya, Transnistria, and the RF. This would require a leader with Stalins lack of concern for international norms and PR and it probably would be a short term economic black hole. Long term it would be nice to have the whole russian speaking world united in one continuous land mass again though. That of course would require doing something about Kaliningrad as well….actually Russia needs to just totally conquer Ukraine and auction off/trade what it doesn’t want to the highest bidder. Offer Poland whatever it wants in Western Ukraine in exchange for a corridor to Kaliningrad. Than sell whatever’s leftover to the Hungarians, Romanians, Slovaks and whoever. Hell maybe the US will buy a chunk and make it NATOstan officially.
I agree, all the coast should become russian and whats left of ukraine should be cutoff from black sea permanently. Trade whatever remains to the highest bidder for a permanent route to kaliningrad seems a food option.
I recon our opinion is not too popular around here though :)
“Trade whatever remains to the highest bidder for a permanent route to kaliningrad seems a food option.”
Um…food? …do you mean a “fool” option or a “good” option?
If you postulate that Russia should be resolute…. then, spoiling things by being conciliatory and allowing the enemy some space to renew hostilities, does not make sense…
Can work both ways. Anywho, remove all access to black sea to foreign nations. Does russia really want a US base in odesa?
Is it not a bigger problem to stop at the contact line and let the nazi Junta in Kiev in power, probably even more extreme after another defeat?Is it not better to get rid of the Ze and co, including Azov and P Sector crazies once and for all?Otherwise if they stay untouched, the US and NATO could quickly occupate the remaining Ukraine with thousands of soldiers, missiles, tanks etc.This time ‘officialy’.The problem will be even worse for Russia to have a full permanent NATO army and bases at her border(and here we are not talking about a small baltic state).
Regime total decapitation is a must do.
It is too optimistic to believe that there will be any uprising, people are afraid for their family and their job.Those who have been associated in mass killing in the Donbass or even inside Ukraine have nothing to lose.
The official opposition has been supressed(tv channels, papers, websites,censorship, a lot are in jail).
If it is to switch from the ZE gang to an even worse one, I don’t see what gain Russia may have?
NS2 is Germany problem now.
There are two possibilities for the next war in the Donbass. If it’s merely about forcing Germany out of the “greyzone” and stopping Nordstream 2 then Russia should continue it’s minimalist reactive approach. If, however, this is gambit in a much larger war that NATO is planning, then by all means they better secure a land route to the Crimea immediately.
From what I have heard from ex-service members, the US military is well along to rotting itself within, due to wokeness, corruption, & years of over-deployment – time has become Russia’s strategic depth.
I’ve read all of the comments on this subject, some, proffer Russia can obliterate Europe in a matter of weeks.
On the other side of the room, there is a rational summary of just how well NATO and the US have Russian in a kill box.
As it’s understood, Russia, China, Iran are belligerents unwilling to show fealty to the “Rules based International Order” of course, they are written by the Anglo/Zionist.
So in this ongoing drama, I ask your esteemed opinions. Just where does China sit on the current Chess Board.
It’s obvious to all that should the Russian domino fall, China has to be acutely aware they are next. The old ‘Strength in Numbers’ mantra
If the current situation blossoms beyond Ukraine, what is China’ response ?
Christ the Savior is Risen
And the second it does not fall, they all gang up on the aggressor(s) and politely ask them to go home, right?
And if Christ saves, he better save himself as the waters are about to get rough.
Certain high level chinese politicos and think tankers have stated internally that China is happy with the Donbas situation because it keeps US busy on numerous fronts and takes heat off China
Hopefully they will have to do absolutely nothing as sane heads will prevail. People seldom realize the actual risk to their lives and livelihoods if a war between Russia and NATO kicks-off and given that the US is currently chaired by a senile old man, in addition to a bunch of born-again religious lunatics – the future does not bode well.
Sure, Russia is going to win in the European theater if it ever gets to that. They’ll sink the DDG’s and cruisers in the Black Sea and completely decimate all and any air-force that the West throws at them (especially within 500 km of their own borders) – though the younger people living in Eastern/Central Europe might not live to see it come to fruition.
It is my hope that Germany & France will grow a pair and denounce the violence in Ukraine as being primarily caused by Ukraine – the threat of that alone would likely stop Ukraine from continuing onwards. Though alas the United States has their hand so far up Merkels ass she might as well be a sock puppet.
What born-again religious lunatics, or real Christians of any description, does the Biden-Harris regime contain?
Better ask which Jews/Zionists/Neo-cons, does the Biden-Harris regime contain? Having used the Christian Zionists as their stepping stone to power they are now openly and fully running Empire.
Measures of legal/ judicial nature should be implemented. It’s Russia’s legitimate right to defend Russians. This offers sufficient legal basis to set up a tribunal charged with deciding upon crimes committed. There’s a UN charter, and there are precedents, such as Nuremberg.
Russia doesn’t need to do anything. Just let Kiev know exactly what will happen if they start a war and let the world know about it. Then sit back and wait and report in the media on every move Kiev does. Use RT and other international media for this in case western MSM goes full retard with another “Russia, Russia” hissy fit.
Kiev will want the EU, the US and NATO to fight the war for them. Once they realize this will never happen, they’ll have to back down.
Andrei My Orthodox Brother,
I was on the Infowars comment boards about the whole Russia Ukraine situation. Those comment boards are teeming with Neocon (Pro Junta) Propaganda. Even the caption below the headline itself was the usual Republican/Neocon garbage, “Putin eyes to annex East Ukraine with weak Biden in office” or some BS like that. My guess is the Neocons are in overdrive to paint Putin as the New Hitler to Patriotic Americans who they just shafted using fraud to get Biden elected.
I expect Putin will proceed with caution and judgement as he always does. Fortunately he is flanked by the best leaders in any country in the world, Lavrov, Peshkov and Shoigu. These men all realize that the real battle is the political battle. It’s not about crushing foreign armies, but proving to Europe that the US is a “madman with a knife” (as Putin said) The ultimate goal is not to beat Nato, but to show that Russia is a sober and reliable partner that can be trusted and that will work with its partners to maintain collective security.
Putin cannot allow himself to be lured into a conflict that convinces people that Moscow is an external threat and a security risk. He must take measured steps to prevent escalation and repeat his performance in Georgia. Storming Kiev might sound like a good idea at first, but on closer reflection it would be a disaster. Ultimately, Putin wants to strengthen ties with Europe, not destroy them forever.
I am confident that Putin will keep his cool and outmanuever Uncle Sam once again.
Me too, plantman, thank you. Well said.
Yes, Juliania, Plantman’s comment is very level-headed. The information war is much more important than the shooting war. And the Project for a New American Century people already told us that the world oligarchs need a “new Pearl Harbor”… or another one… Today is not the first time getting involved in a major war was very unpopular among Americans and the US was in decline from a depression, yet after the old Pearl Harbor, neither of those points really mattered and almost no one knew or cared about everything the US did to start World War 2 in the first place. A new Pearl Harbor will have a similar effect.
9/11 fit the bill 20 years ago, but that is not good enough now since the banker gangsters must justify a more total war effort, as well as quickly shutting down the Internet and alternative media, lest their warmongering is so publicly obvious that it is memeable.
“Storming Kiev” might work, but even the Saker’s more restrained military response could be sufficient, especially if American forces and officials take losses. His idea should probably account for that… Russian troops do not even have to be responsible for the losses; the banksters could have their “allies” do it, like with the USS Liberty.
Article summarizing the nato related sea threats to NS 2 construction: calls for Russian Navy protection against the open, crude, and arrogant threats at sea to NS 2 construction.
(I’m not at all sure as to the authority of this site but I would not label it necessarily as one of the shrill “do something now” camp based upon a review of its previous articles.
To state the obvious, this article strikes me as one step up to the “put a stop to this bull sheeet now” category:
Failing to block the Russian project by bureaucratic methods, the United States moved to active operations directly at sea. Operator Nord Stream 2 AG reports that direct provocations have begun against pipelayers of an openly pirate nature.
Since March 28, a very active movement has suddenly appeared in the one and a half mile security corridor along the strictly approved and agreed route of laying the pipeline. At first, several fishing vessels appeared, trying to work with trawls. Then an unknown submarine surfaced dangerously close to the Fortuna pipelayer.
And on the night of April 2, some fishing boat under the Polish flag apparently tried to ram the Fortuna. His actions were so obvious that the supply vessel accompanying the pipe-layer had to literally substitute its side.
Link with detail on site and its director, a member of the Russian Duma:
On one hand, it becomes clear that the clowns at langley, state dept, brussels, should look for another line of work as these crude attacks and threats belong in the category of children playground antics. What is to be gained? However, unless the adolescence is called out as to what it is and stopped, it will continue with the likelihood of more and more increased. Not likely that the baltics and poland will understand anything else.
I’m certainly out of my league in hypothesizing on military affairs, so I cannot add to or debate any of your points – they seem sensible enough to me. However, should we discuss the diplomatic side? Russia always validates what it does under very strict interpretations of International Law and the UN Charter. I suspect that they already have draft resolutions to submit to the UNSC within minutes of a Ukrainian/NATO attack. Obviously, the resolution will be vetoed by any or all of the 3 imperial powers whereas China will support it. But unlike the Axis of Kindness they will at least attempt to use the “proper” channels of response before any overt military action.
What’s Ze up to in Qatar?
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Doha Sunday (April 4/ 21) evening on an official visit to the country.
HH the Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani will meet Zelensky at the Amiri Diwan on Monday to discuss bilateral relations between the two countries, ways of supporting and enhancing them, and issues of common concern.
A number of agreements and memoranda of understanding will also be signed between the governments of the two countries.
You say Qatar, I say ISIS paymasters
Link with Turkey somehow I think
Qatar supports other groups… the Ikhwān and their spin-offs, not the IS/Daesh.
Dave. HRC + US state dept disagrees with you.
Qatar= ISIS paymasters
*Leaked Hillary Clinton emails prove ISIS was supported by US allies Saudi Arabia and Qatar*
A leaked 2014 email from Hillary Clinton acknowledges, citing Western intelligence sources, that the US backed regimes in Saudi Arabia and Qatar have supported ISIS.
……US officials and many analysts and news reports have long denied that the Saudi and Qatari monarchies have supported ISIS, instead claiming the support was coming from rich donors in those countries.
US officials told CBS in September 2014 that wealthy “angel investors” in Qatar and other Gulf states were sending money to ISIS.
The leaked August 2014 email, however, shows that Western intelligence sources knew the regimes themselves were providing support to the Islamic State.
Great post. I believe that the world will never be safe until the government of the USA is dead and buried. How to achieve that is above my pay grade. The deep state must go to the dust bin of history. Until then the world has a knife to it’s throat.
I pray confidently in my heart that the little 5 year old boy who was killed in a drone strike has fallen into living hands, hands that can embrace him, the hands of loving angels.
I have 4 boys and I feel really sorry for the parents. They must go on living on this earth still.
I really feel Putin, when he says:”What kind of a world would it be without Russia in it!” He is wise and he is kind. Like a good father
Shoigu is a Buddist who made the sign of The Cross at the Victory Parade a few years back. I am grateful for this, and I sincerely mean it when I say that should this conflict eventually escalate to a Global (kinetic) conflict, well then at least let it be Russian missiles that take us away, because we know they would only be the absolute last resort. There is no malice in Russian hearts, and for that we are grateful.
Again that thing about Shoigu ‘Buddhist’. He is an Orthodox Christian (at least nominally) after his own admission.
Remember the Donald Cook!
In the first version of the War for Crimea the Americans were disarmed before the battle began.
I would expect to see something similar this time round again.
I cannot say what Russia’s reaction should be directly. There are many balls in the air and sharp tensions in many places. So, I would hope and feel certain that Russia has teams of analysts of the required quality to answer this question. I cannot even tell if they’ve taken a defensive or offensive position with weaponry deployment.
But what the end result of Russia’s reaction should be is rather clear and this is a tall order for sure. At least the Ukrainian tensions should be removed from our world. What is rightfully ‘Russian’ should return and with the limited knowledge that I have, the Donbass republics should return to the motherland.
Overall, this tension should be removed from our world. Russia is good at that, i.e., making war into peace, even if there has to be a bunch of friendly men in green highly trained soldiers with peacekeeping training. I don’t know if there is a legal precedent of taking the Donbass republics into something like a legal position of keeping them safe. I just don’t know.
But what I do see is that the rest of the world live a pretend life of arrogance. Take a look at this guy from the Munich Security Conference. He is Boris Ruge, the Vice Chairman of the Munich Security Conference and he needs his face decorated with some mud! He says so clearly what the western Zone A really truly needs and deeply wants, and is in a pretend world. Russia should just disappear in some way. This is the propaganda of ‘weapons of mass destruction’ of our current world. Does this man know that he is outright lying? Just look at the false arrogance. This is what Russia is up against. She will win a war, but is a war the way to go?
Agreed. Additionally, I think Russia may also specifically target Ukrainian decision centers where NATO advisors are seated. The West will automatically come up with it’s perennial bluster and of course sanctions to which insulated Russia will not budge. The declining West has no vestigial spine to confront the determination of Russian armed forces Perhaps this incidence will be a watershed moment splitting the cabal alliance from its core. Obviously, Ukraine will not be the same as we know it in the last seven years. Entire Europe will succumb to the Euroasian superpowers: Russia & China.
How supportive is the Ukrainian military of potential military offensives?
Is it possible they would be prepared to force the current government to step down?
Russia could then support a new government?
West gets to complain
But Ukraine stays independent with revised constitution?
All points of Saker are absolutely valid.
The strategic goal fro Russia must be the destruction of the Ukrainian command structure, the capture or kill of as many as possible “Banderites” on the front and fair but firm trials for them – if captured. Further the destruction of every bit of “hardware”, the cleaning of the planned future “contact line” from all Ukrainian artillery, tanks and Grad-missiles, Tochkas, “Smerch”-rocket launchers and so on.
One very important point for me is the protection of the Kerch bridge at almost all cost.
The West might try to influence the Ukies to try its destruction to force Russia to annex the area from Mariupol to Kherson. For my TASTE Russia should go to Odessa, but it’s clear, that they don’t want to do it – at least at the moment. The economic costs would be very high while we can be sure that sanctions and the stop of NS2 will be a definite outcome of whatever Russia does to help Donbas or to secure Crimea.
I don’t see the necessity to take all of Ukraine as some suggest. Although I see their point of hinder NATO to deploy there. But first all of these installations would be in a minutes fly of a Russian ballistic or cruise missile. And NATO doesn’t have any air defense system which could cope with that. We saw that at the Ain-Assad-airbase in Iraq. Second: The west is clearly in decline, overwhelmed with Corona and a deep systemic crisis of capitalism and the “democratic model” itself. I don’t see that European countries would be ready and capable of at least financially facilitating such moves. The security of Transnistria would be given by the fact that Ukraine is an “open area” for the Russian air force after the war.
I certainly can’t deny that NATO itself could deploy some missiles dangerous for Moscow somewhere in Ukraine. But I’d rather would wait: If they don’t try to deploy anything dangerous for Russia – fine. If they try to do it: They can still go in – since then you really know, that the big war is no longer to avoid. But until then, Russia should not bare the financial burden of keeping Ukraine afloat.
While I certainly dream since 2014 of a victory parade in Kiev, I would see it as a strategic error just now.
Years ago I said and still say today,Russia needs to announce a Putin Doctrine which plainly states that Russia will consider attempted attacks,coups,color revolutions against allies of Russia.And against nations of the former Soviet Union to make them enemies of the Russian Federation,as a direct attack on the Russian Federation.And will be responded too as an attack would be.
As to Ukraine, I would hope Russia has been grooming elements in the Ukrainian opposition, and in the Ukrainian military for just this type of occasion. If the Donbass forces (with or without massive Russian aid) can defeat the Ukrainian forces,and drive them back.Russia should call on the military to assume power in Ukraine and put in a government made up of the opposition and even bring in some of those illegally ousted in 2014.The only way to really end this is to put in power elements friendly to Russia.While keeping Russia’s footprint as small as they can to have those results.Let Ukrainian forces be the ones to purge out the neo-nazi and pro-Western traitors.That should have happened 7 years ago to have avoided so many problems.It wasn’t done then but needs to be done today.
What is good for the goose….. is good for the gander……
Monroe Doctrine……. Putin doctrine………
Question…………… how to fund it??? enforce it??? without going broke….
Today’s energy situation is quite different from just 10 years ago….
For more about that….. http://www.crashoil.blogspot.com…. which is run by a Spanish scientist in Spain….
He shows a BP energy availability chart from the EIA which shows world crude supplies dropping 10% per year for each of the next 5 years….
I mentioned this before….. it’s critical…. for NATO… it’s now or never…
Read your list of dot points!………. What more is there to say?
I don’t have a clue what Russia’s reactin should be, but considering Genreral Sergey Shoygu and VVP had several days to work out details during their retreat a few weeks ago, I expect it to be quick and effective.
The only recommendation for any country is for my own, and considering that neither our demented president (and I say this in the strictest sense of the word for it is obvious he has dementia), his demented vice-president (here I’m sarcastic. Ms. Harris has done nothing about our border crisis), nor the Speaker of the House, who had the temerity to rip our former president’s speech in half on live, national TV, and it is that our constitution be used to remove them from office ASAP.
BLM and all the other politically correct vandals have wounded my country, and I hope that Russia’s actions are sufficient to cause the healing to begin. The first thing to do is debridement, if you get my drift.
I agree the STAVKA has met and considered their plan of action.
It is apparent the plan involves troop levels not seen since WWII…. ~ 500,000 ground forces alone… not including the RuAF and RuN.
That said, don’t expect an immediate invasion….
It makes good sense to wait for the end of the “season of mud” which occurs during the month of April and into May, and lasts until frost leaves the ground so it drains and dries out.
It also makes good sense to let the putschists attack, and then to counter attack from a diplomatic point of high ground….
Meanwhile the putschist’s are busy posting photos of themselves committing suicide with their Kalashnikovs.. and killing pre-schoolers and their grandmothers….
While Gazprom completes NS2 at a rate of 1.4 km / day.
Photos of the soil conditions present in Ukraine are available on the internet. Videos of putschist soldiers committing suicide with their weaps were posted on VK by Patrick Armstrong on his page.
And…. the pandemic continues to rage within Ukraine itself….
Stalin paraded defeated German forces in Moscow, including generals, so nobody could deny Soviet (not allied) victory, modern Russia should take example of the great commander.
The US has armed Europe for another war against Russia. As soon as the devastation starts, pour gasoline on the fire and let it burn for several years. When Eurasia is on its knees begging for mercy…. bring in the Marshall Plan 2.0, mission accomplished. USeurasia.
If anyone attempts this, the burning should occur only on US soil so that the US americans finally learn what they have done to the world.
As all know, USA is using Ukraine to turn the EU against Russia, specifically regarding NS2. However, the EU are simpering dogs who are watching to see who the alpha is. USA has been alpha since 1945, but in the past 20 years, the alpha has lost his edge and turned grey. Now his bark is louder than his bite.
In my opinion the only way to stop the schoolyard bully is to hit him so hard that he doesn’t come back.
If Russia could impose a direct cost on the decision makers, ie, DC, Langley and MI6, it would have a very different effect on the EU and Germany caught in the middle.
Right now they have fear of being invaded by Russia, because WWII did see Russia take eastern Europe, only after the Nazi’s had conquered it first.
The question is if there is any way that Russia could hit the US neocons so hard that it would cause the EU to see Russia as the new alpha. Can that be done without starting nuclear war? If yes, then that is what I would do.
The interesting thing is that by declaring the intent to cyber attack Russia, the US president effectively declared war. Russia has been blamed repeatedly for hacks that were probably done by Brennan’s people. If Russia’s military has the cyber-warfare capacity they are so infamous for, then a true devastating cyber-attack would be precisely the kind of devastating KO punch that the USA needs. Turn off the US power grid using only a cyber attack routed through London.
Other methods that might be done without nuclear war would include sinking both of the US carrier groups within range of Europe. That would instantly make the 8 carrier groups in home port obsolete. It would castrate the alpha dog, so to speak.
Re “As all know, USA is using Ukraine to turn the EU against Russia, specifically regarding NS2. However, the EU are simpering dogs who are watching to see who the alpha is. ”
My Moscow colleague sent me an interesting message in which he likened the US to the Ukrainian proxy.
I had written to him:
“I am horrified at the role of the USA in exacerbating tension between Ukraine and Russia and trying to get Ukraine to go to war against Russia.
At the same time I ask myself what the USA’s European allies think of this situation?
They signed the Minsk Agreements.
Yet they seem to be missing in action now, to curb the madness of Ukrainian Nazis and nutty nationalists.
Ukraine is not going to get Crimea back. Who is telling them that they can????”
Moscow colleague wrote:
“The US politicians consider Ukraine as a tool in the struggle against Russia. You don’t need to be ashamed at all, because you did not choose the rulers of your country that make such decisions. Moreover, nobody has chosen the Deep State, which has launched the hybrid war against Russia. The USA is a great nation, but in a sense, it is in the similar position as the Ukraine, because in many cases it serves as an instrument for the global rulers.
European allies lack of sovereignty after the WW2 and they also lack of principles. The Minsk Agreement was not fulfilled by the Ukraine from the very beginning, but Germany and France ignored those facts. Earlier they cheated president Yanukovich, with whom they signed the agreement just a couple of days before the coup. European top politicians gave formal guarantees of keeping piece in Ukraine, if Yanukovich did not use force against Maidan, but these politicians immediately supported the coup and forgot the guarantees they had given.
Concerning Crimea, Ukrainian politicians including president Zelensky, whose main promise in the election campaign was to reach peace with Russia, regularly give the “ritual” promises to get Crimea back. They prefer to maintain hysteria in public space because of the very bad economic situation in Ukraine.”
“sinking both of the US carrier groups within range of Europe.”
Why sink these things. They are a massive drain on the US economy. They should be kept around for as long as possible. If they were sunk, all these resources would be directed at producing more dangerous weapons.
I agree very much with Skuppers comments 4:56 pm est
Unless the whole of Ukraine is taking buy Russia and made part of the Russian federation ,this will not end
well ,also it sends a message to the neo-cons and others that the gloves are off and next time the new line may
be back to the old USSR line in Berlin ,the Zionest only respect one thing, power just what the german’s did
durning ww2 if one german soldier was kill in town ,they line up 100 town’s people and killed them, that’s the
only way you can make then think about what they are doing,they have to loss much more that they can gain!!!!!! . If Gorbee yelsin and Krsuchiff did not betray the Russia people Russia would not be in this
situation, they where all traders.
Wishy-washy , very week response only invite more truble down the road . The Russians should especially target the instigators , the advisors , the trainers and the lurking spy planes that are gathering information to use that information to kill Russians . This is not a sport event it is about time the Russians draw the line once and for all. Escalation ? Let the other side worry about that .
What would be almost funny would be to sink two US Carrier groups with the hypersonic missiles, but then deny doing it, and say “we view the USA as our partner”. This would be a huge “touche” as the US has been doing this to Russia for the past two decades.
Ha ha. I like this.
This is how passive aggressive family members work:
Do something terrible but deny it and then act “friendly.”
Russia cannot allow a Ukraine in NATO. It would be a strategic risk that NATO could at some point launch attacks against Russia from Kiev, Karkov or Odessa. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary to face the situation with the STRATEGIC DISARMAMENT of Ukraine. This involves the need for intense Russian missile attacks against well-defined targets from Kiev to Odessa and Karkov, destroying air and antiaircraft defenses, missile and ammunition depots, as well as army communications centers. It is better to take the initiative and resolve the issue with the Ukrainian regime than to hope that NATO will fully assume control over the country and that it will constitute a terrible strategic threat to the defense of Russia.
If Ukraine becomes Russian territory,all those military assets you propose be destroyed, might be useful to help defend Russia.
A most instructive map ….
Looks to me like Ukraine is surrounded on 3 sides…
I received reports that units are arriving from Siberia… that force will be 250,000 — 450,000
I also noticed that Russian media are making a stink over that 5 year old boy being deliberately murdered by
a Putschist attack drone.
The more I think about it, the more asymmetric it would be to take out a US Navy carrier group. Send a message 20 minutes before saying, “Do not retaliate. And, if you do not call of the Ukies in 1 hour, this will happen to your other carrier group in theater.”
The risk to civilians is almost zero. The Navy has no civilian shield to hide behind as the Ukies have done in Donbass.
If it could be done deftly with 100% effectiveness, the resulting shock and awe would cause the EU to say “fu$k!!!”.
And the US would find itself with no way to retaliate except for using subs, USAF, and any ground based missiles they snuck in to Bulgaria and Romania.
The British-American shtick to demonize Russia for the past decade has been – Russia attacks little guys, he might attack you too!!!
If Russia simply holds the USA responsible as if it was the one who attacked Donbass, and sinks a US carrier group instead of invading Ukraine, it presents a completely different picture to Germany, who is apparently the only person they are trying to persuade.
That presents the picture that the USA is the bully, using little Ukraine as the cats paw. So instead of attacking Ukraine, Russia has (removed language, MOD) to attack the real criminal mastermind, and (removed language ,MOD).
Such an incident would end the US influence in Europe. NATO would fold. Now Britain and their pesky MI6 would still need to be dealt with. But without their 800 pound monkey to enforce their orders, Britain will probably shut up and sit down.
Imperial commentators are brimming with the false confidence of their Hollywood addled minds. One of the more curious themes is the recognition that a conflict in the Ukraine could be the start of a war across three Eurasian fronts, Iran and Taiwan being the others. It’s been a well established pattern that imperial commentators accuse their victims of the crimes which the empire will perpetrate. This eads me to think that they hope the Ukrainian provocation will be enough to draw the other members of the Axis of resistance into conflict.
While any reasonable analysis sees the dangers of a three front war, I don’t think you have much of that coming out of the West. In addition to the “analysts” being high on their own propaganda supply, I think the more sober imperial strategist have come to the realization that without a war they will have already lost.
Despite the resignation in the US that China’s economy will supersede America’s in 2028. The truth is we crossed that river four years ago. Certainly the US economy is larger in nominal USD terms, but if you hadn’t noticed those nominal dollars are “printed” by the Federal Reserve. They are not a barometer of economic activity. At best they are a source of speculation, at worst they are line of cocaine at the end of the American night.
The Western response to the COVID epidemic has demonstrated the inability of Western capital to coordinate any mass social activity, other than perhaps a super bowl halftime show. The US military may be the last Imperial institution with the ability to appear to do anything close to its stated mission. Whether American strategist realize this is just facade, upheld by Russian/Iranian/Chinese forbearance in the current theaters of conflict(and American strategic deterrent); or whether they know that their capabilities are degraded daily, the conclusion is the same. They realize time isn’t on their side. Better conflict now than later. Specially if it’s the cannon fodder that is doing the fighting.
I think their assumption is that Russia/China/Iran operate under the same values and thus have the same strategic outlook they do. Consequently NATO is hoping Russia will invade and attempt to conquer and annex Ukraine. I think the Saker has done a great job clarifying Russian strategic objectives with respect to Ukraine. And I think the list above couldn’t be more clear with how they can go about achieving those objectives.
I do think one thing is missing and that is the appropriate international response to NATO aggression. The informal nature of relations of the anti-imperial nations leaves some gaps in the possible responses. The Russians, putting their people on the line, shouldn’t hesitate to punish those who brought them to this point. That punishment would be better meted out in another theatre of conflict. This would do three things: minimize the footprint of the conflict around the Donbass; isolate the culprits by engaging them in a theatre only they are present in; and demonstrate that the anti-imperial nations are not isolated.
Despite the fervent wet-dreams that soil the bedsheets of American admirals, I don’t think an invasion of Taiwan is in the cards. Nor should it be. The Chinese would risk too much, namely lives. They been patient for 71 years, despite having the ability to take the rebellious province by force. I can’t see them squandering that virtue. Perhaps taking the Diaoyu islands, would be of some benefit but I can’t see this being an opportunity to strike directly at the formerly identified original aggressors.
This then leaves Syria/Iraq/Afghanistan as possible locations for retaliation. The former being perhaps the most aligned with the interests of the players involved. It would certainly be an escalation to strike US forces there, but one which wouldn’t increase the risk of seeing Moscow or DC incinerated. And also one which there could be significant cover through proxies for the action.
Finally, and god willing, if we all survive this, all the players involved should re-evaluate their strategic imperatives. If the Americans feel it’s better to fight the Russians to the last Ukrainian or the Chinese down to the last Taiwanese; perhaps the Chinese should consider that its a safer proposition for their 1.5 billion citizens to fight the Americans in Venezuela or Cuba.
Really enjoyed reading these comments. I agree that it is the hegemonic West that needs these conflicts as it is bankrupt both morally and economically. I really don’t pay that much attention to these politicians or the actor/presenters in the MSM. It is a little like Alexander of Abonoteichus and his talking snake puppet giving oracle, you really need to know who the ventriloquist is and what their interests are. I seem to remember an audio phone call of Nuland’s where she ordered the next President of Ukraine like she would order a dozen cookies. So much for “democracy”, eh?
I think Ukraine is in a desperate position and being prodded into to a conflict by the Empire and this is not in Ukraine’s interests. This will be a disaster for Ukraine of historical proportions.
Russia for her part is in the same position as she was but better prepared. I expect Russia to surround Ukraine on three sides with basically artillery but not get directly involved on the ground for which Russia will use proxy forces, mercenaries, and secretly its special forces. Russia will assume a basic defensive position. What happens when NATO aircraft providing close air support get shot down for example is anyone’s guess. Mission creep is a real thing and as has been said the Empire doesn’t seem to be going quietly into the night. If Russia doesn’t give the war the Empire craves this debacle is just another incompetent waste of young Ukrainian lives. The Empire will try another corner of the ring and Russia will continue to rope the dope until the Empire is exhausted. Total collapse is not far off and the Empire is beginning to get to the point of dangerous desperation.
The latest NATO/ukronazi activity could be a feint to get Moscow to commit forces and pin them down for weeks with an escalated “threat of war” . . . but meanwhile US /zio forces actually strike into Syria & Iran. I don’t see anyone considering this possibility.
If a wider regional war is coming,
Turkiye is going to be a very important player with very complicated motives, goals, and strategies. I would like to see the Saker analyze Turkiye’s role in a Black Sea / Eastern Med regional war.
I agree with the Saker. Hopefully, conflict can be avoided but it is not looking very promising. If Russia is forced to act then she should do so swiftly and decisively. Russia should avoid getting bogged down with things like nation building like what the US did and is doing in Afghanistan.
I don’t think that the US or NATO will get directly involved. Let the idiots in Kiev have their version of the Charge of the Light Brigade. If they do decide to get involved then Russia can create problems for them elsewhere.
Well it’s not the U.S. being bogged down in Afghanistan but the fact that you have other NATO countries there France Germany and even Russia has troops in there, and the U.S. don’t know what they would do and if the U.S. pulled out and the rest remained it would be a black eye for the U.S. because it’s all about saving face as if they had one to save.
Love your thoughts, well said!
I don’t have a clue about the international law governing the natural gas pipelines running through Ukraine, but I would expect there to be an awful lot of “Act of God” terminology in the contracts. Should those multiple pipelines somehow become perforated like Swiss cheese all throughout Ukraine, that would put a pretty serious damper on European gas supplies… Were those damage sufficient, that might even change a few German industrialists’ views on the expendability of NordStream2.
Were Russia to cause any such damages, of course that would be the equivalent of cutting off gas supplies to Europe and would fully justify their nixing NS2 and purchasing overpriced US gas instead. Once seriously attacked, the Donbass military could potentially execute “strategic strikes” on various pipelines, but I doubt they have the drone superiority or reach to pull off a rigorous perforating of pipelines while the UAF is still in the air. Perhaps the optimal source of pipeline shredding would be the various Nazi battalions themselves.
Surely Russia has infiltrated some of the more loony terrorist bands in Ukraine and could whip up a frenzy around some half-baked meme like “Protect the Fatherland from Russian exploitation — sabotage all the Russian pipelines!” A few videos of official state skinheads blowing up essential infrastructure is all that would be needed. Once that became a trend, inspiring copycats and letting the Donbass join in the shredding from afar, just about anyone could go out and anonymously blast a hole in a pipeline. Europe would utterly wet itself — so many vulnerabilities they just weren’t creative enough to imagine!
Europe’s present infatuation with encouraging Nazi regimes would end rather quickly once they realized their foolishness was threatening stability across the entire continent. Donbass would get recognized as the legitimate threat it is, rather than just a pretext for sanctioning Russia. Russia would let the collective West know that it too can execute crippling false flag attacks. Depending on the specific terminology in the various gas contracts, another wave of bankruptcies might even get inflicted on the teetering Western markets.
Did NATO somehow think that it was the smart one, playing out covert scenarios that would blindside all its hapless opponents? Yeah, right! War opens up all kinds of opportunities that weren’t available under peace. Are they quite sure they want to open up that particular Pandora’s box?
The Intel Crab
Interested to see just what is offloaded in #Kyiv from this flight out of Ramstein AFB. Only time will tell, but its clear that under the new administration, close NATO cooperation with Ukraine is on the rise.