There is a lot of speculation about what the consolidated West (aka the AngloZionist Empire) will do to protect its Ukronazi proxies. Here are my, bulletpoint style ideas (in no particular order):
- The West has already decided that Russia is the aggressor and Banderastan the victim of the Russian aggression. Even if the Ukies launch a massive artillery and armor attack on the LDNR (or even Crimea), the West will claim with a straight face that the evil Russkies attacked the innocent Ukrainians.
- I do not expect any NATO country to actually commit forces to to attack the Russian forces. At most, the Poles (who else?!) to move a mostly symbolic force into the western Ukraine (Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk).
- However, the USA is not only weak, it is fantastically incompetent, ignorant and arrogant: a lot of high level western officials have declared that the USA/NATO will not “allow” Russia to threaten or attack the Ukraine. To me, this tells me that there are those who believe that if the US/NATO actually do engage Russian forces, Russia will “blink”, and cower down in fear. Clearly, these people have never read a history book.
- I am convinced that if the US/NATO attack Russian forces, the Russians will counter-attack not only the actual forces which attacked Russia, but also the US/NATO command centers which gave the order to attack and coordinated it.
- The biggest danger right now is that western politicians are completely misreading not only Putin, but all of Russia. They are missing the key point: Russia cannot and will not retreat further, she won’t meekly declare that the Donbass or Crimea belong to the Nazi regime in Kiev. Russia is ready, capable and willing to fight US/NATO forces if needed, including by using tactical and even strategic nukes.
- The Kremlin fully understands that the role of Poland in the NATO pact is one of a small but very loud attack dog: if the Poles really move into western Ukraine then this will only be if the US tells them to do so. There is a saying in Russian “Поляки не вояки” meaning “the Poles ain’t no soldiers”: they always and only attack when their enemy of the moment is weak and disorganized (that is why Churchill called Poland the “greedy hyena of Europe”). However, I fully expect Polish (and US, UK) “advisors” to be assisting the Ukronazi forces during their attack on the LDNR. As for the supposed Russia’s fellow Orthodox “brothers” like Bulgaria or Romania, they will do what they always did in the past: join any anti-Russian coalition. The good news is that their militaries are as bad as the Polish one (ready for parades, not ready for real warfare). Also, the Black Sea is, in military terms, a “Russian lake”. So these small countries will huff and puff, but won’t do anything stupid.
- Propaganda wise, it is clear that irrespective of what Russia decides to do, she will be completely demonized. The current level of anti-Russian hatred in the West is now equal to, or even higher, than before the Nazi attack on Russia during WWII. Check out the following illustrations of this reality:
The US elites totally in agreement about Russia which they now want to contain and then destroy. As for the US puppet-states in the EU, they have zero personal agency. So what would be the goals of the “Biden” Admin?
- Create a clash between Russia and the EU which would give meaning to NATO, justify the deployment of more US forces in Europe which, in turn, will further strengthen the already strong US grip on the EU’s collective throat.
- By crashing NS2 (which will happen as soon as the conflict goes “hot” in the Donbass), the US will make the EU not only far more dependent on the US, but also much less competitive: instead of buying cheap high quality gas from Russia, the EU will purchase the more expensive and worse quality gas from the US.
- Armament programs will go through the roof and the US MIC will make a fortune (by selling grotesquely overpriced) weapons to itself and to its European “allies”.
So the big questions are:
- Can Russia deter the US by reacting below the threshold of an open military clash? My personal reply is that it is still possible but, sadly, this is becoming less and less likely with every passing day.
- Does that mean that this conflict can turn into WWIII with nukes and all? My personal reply is that that this scenario is becoming more and more likely with every passing day.
Bottom line: thank you again, “Biden” -voting Dem doubleplusgoodthinkers! Thanks to you only 100+ days into the new admin we are back on the edge of a nuclear precipice! In the words of Putin “you did not listen to us then, listen to us now!”. But, of course you won’t. Nothing short of a nuclear mushroom will wake you up from your delusions… If that happens, only blame yourselves!
So these are my thoughts for the day.
Now I invite you to share yours!
Vanity is the greatest enemy, for without any meaning you can’t stop the bleeding. There is no respect for any claim not backed by the threat of violence. There are men with guns saying they own the land and the cry for war can’t be silenced. The fact of the matter is we own nothing in this life and it is those that believe they can own even a grain of sand that introduce all of the violence and blood shed. Our dreams are less than dust and we are born with nothing and we will leave this world the same way. All is vanity.
Whoever says anything about the time being against Russia is completely wrong. There’s nothing better for Russia than time.
The following actually proves that (zerohedge is like a diary of empire despair and this is only a part of the story, one can pull 90% of the events of 2020 as a proof):
Note how the US issued many trillions of their currency in very short time, without thinking too much about what this means. The laws of economics, no matter how much you play with them, are like the laws of physics. No one can neglect them or run away from them, bend them or change them.
In relation to that, the US response to anything escalating out of control will be the equivalent of complete economic and social self-destruction.
Humans are more inclined to seek profit, which in and of it self creates inequality for one very simple reason. A business cannot pay its employees more than the retail value of the goods and services produced, because that would not be profitable. Hence, there will never be enough earned money in the hands of consumers to purchase the accumulative inventories held by businesses. Currently everyone participating in a for profit economy uses debt to satisfy the profit margins required to keep the for profit system afloat. Hence, the entire world is awash in debt. Consequentially, the Federal reserve was created to serve as the lender of last resort and they are able to lend the world an infinite amount of money by virtue of the fact they create said money out of nothing. Love them or hate them, the Fed is feeding you desire to make a profit via infinite debt.
Corporation create the intellectual property that lifts everyone out of the stone age. I am sure that everyone would rather buy a washing machine from a corporation than beat their clothes against a rock in a ice cold creek. Hence, banks and politician favor those that create intellectual property and provide jobs.
This system will work as long as we all agree to let the Fed create money out of nothing and turn us all into debt slaves. Personally, I don’t think people are smart enough to live without the intellectual property that lifts them out of the stone age, so for their sake I am ok with it for now. However, there is a way to achieve mathematical equilibrium but it would require some changes that would make wall street cringe. These changes would not go against our human nature to compete and make a profit and would still resemble capitalism.
Make no mistake every country faces the scourge of infinite debt if they employ a system of profit without consideration as to how to get the money back down to the bottom without offending the people at the top by trying to make them the slave in the system. A health system requires mathematical equilibrium otherwise it is doomed to fail in the long run.
The laws of economics do not exist for a country that has a reserve currency status, military bases all around the world, a monopoly on vast amount of information and a large nuclear arsenal.
Those laws were made by the same country at the Bretton Woods conference for all others to follow. The risk of inflation does not exist or is very small in the USA, so they can borrow and emit infinite amount of money. This is a reason the USA is willing to go to war after war just to prevent any shake up of this status quo.
Nord Stream 2 combined with NS1 and South Stream/Turkish Stream will be a economic nightmare for the US. What’s more, Euro could become much stronger. Strong Euro often means weak US dollar. Then, there is the recent China-Iran deal. The Neo-Fascist Empire is in a hurry to save it’s reserve currency status. For that, they will try anything, even a war with Russia.
Yes, that’s why time is on Russia’s side, because this reserve status is about to be over. The US (the rich in dollars influential people I mean) is in a desperate situation: they either go on like this and collapse, or go to war with Russia and collapse. They are truly facing two things which they don’t want. Their only hope is Russia retreating and surrendering somehow by a miracle (which they religiously believe is going to happen). They are building an alternate reality which they feel protecting them from these outcomes. Once they are about to die a terrible death, they will wake up but it will be too late.
Currently, funny enough, inflation is still existent but is projected in financial market increase (which in fact is a devaluation of the dollar and does not represent anything about the actual economy). So they twisted it in such a way as to present even their failures as success. Another places this projects is in booming hosing prices and massive health-care costs. This is simply a way of projecting a lot of the uncertainty on something relatively predictable: people will be be needing and buying houses, people will be getting sick and needing help.
Once the reserve status goes down the drain and this collides with reality, it’s hard to imagine what will happen with markets, housing, healthcare, and business in general, and all those artificially rich people. However, this is bound to happen. It is like gravity – undeniable and unavoidable.
Laws of economics? Admittedly, I have no understanding of said laws. I am a person who has a deep appreciation for simplicity (i.e. E=MC2). What I am trying to point out above is that it doesn’t matter what kind of currency one uses. There is an intrinsic inequality in the way we deal with each other that leads to debt and bankruptcy.
The accumulative inventory of the entire world was produced to make a profit, and the accumulative amount of money paid to produce said accumulative world wide inventory is less than the retail value it is sold for by virtue of the profit margin. Where does the money come from to pay the difference between the cost to produce and the retail value it is sold for? It has to come from somewhere. It doesn’t just magically appear in our pockets. I conclude it is debt. It must be borrowed, which means we must promise to pay the difference + interest in the future so that we can have it now. However, by virtue of the fact that the retail value must always be higher than the cost to produce in order to make a profit, the consume will always need to borrow the difference.
The math is a recipe for disaster regardless if there is a federal reserve or not. Simply, I’ll pay you $5 in gold to buy my $6 in gold ice cream. Any takers?
I’d suggest to the author to re-consider point 6) – I’m pretty sure that what he said about the Poles is true, don’t know about the Romanians, but he seems to constantly makes the mistake in his analyses to place an equal sign between bulgarian politicians and bulgarian ordinary citizens, when he mentions Bulgaria.
I agree that the bulgarian so called “elite” are self-serving psychopats, who always sign with the loser in every major war against Russia, including the Russo-Turkish war of 1877-1878, which led to the liberation of Bulgaria.
But one of the reasons, why bulgarian military is in a such sorry shape, is because, aside being gutted by every government since 2004, many experienced officers and enlisted resigned after our country was sold out by the politicians to be occupied by NATO, preferring to become unemployed rather to be used as cannon fodder – given the geography, it was obvious against which country.
And it should be noted, that there are many bulgarian volunteers, serving in Donbass against the UkroNazis (I used to be one of them), although the russians there can’t really make a distinction between serbians and bulgarians (I guess we sound and look alike to them). So I find your comment about Bulgaria partially true, but kind of offensive.
I don’t think one can find a single honest Bulgarian soldier that would ever agree to fight against Russia in the name of whatever, the least of which are politicians, NATO, EU, West, Ukraine, etc.
Many of the national armies on the Balkans are only capable to give a respectable fight if they feel and know that they defend their homeland and not if they feel unlawfully invading someone.
If the “partners” expect Bulgarians or Greeks to be on their side and follow their command in a war against Russia, they vastly miscalculated that. I would claim that Romanians are not far from that setting as well.
We constantly hear about the US wanting to sell our LNG to the EU.And I have no doubt that is their ultimate thinking.But in the meantime I have some questions.
1. Does the US produce enough LNG to ship large amounts to the EU.
2. Does the US have enough plants right now to convert the gas to LNG for export,I’ve heard they don’t.
3. Does the US have enough ships able to ship huge amounts of LNG to the EU,I’ve heard they don’t.
4. Are there enough receiving plants in the EU to receive vast amounts of LNG from the US. I don’t think there are.I know they are building one in Poland,and in Lithuania.But that leaves a lot of countries,do they have any?
5.How much gas does the EU have stored for emergencies?
If we knew the answer to these questions then we’d know if the EU can just stop buying Russian gas without their economies collapsing.
I don’t know for sure all the answers, but it seems plausible that the answer is “No” to the majority of questions. We know that the US needs to import gas from Russia.
For example, this:
If NS2 is closed, that would be in fact beneficial to Russia in many ways. Europe will need to buy LNG from Russia or completely disappear. This would create very competitive environment as Europe will need to compete with Asia (both for gas allocation and vessel allocations), where LNG is very common and prices are higher.
I’m no expert in LNG, but do take an interest as I am in Oil and Gas.
Below links may be of help.
1 and 2
US is currently capable of 8-10BCF/day from 6 export terminals, if you believe EIA ( read Art Berman for plenty of reasons not to)
3 My understanding is LNG carriers are a global market and there’s more carriers/capacity than product to move although I do know the severe NH winter pushed up LNG spot prices and carriers were hard to come by Jan-Feb2021. Most major oil co’s these days run their own LNG trading groups with some carriers of their own but everyone ultimately ends up going to the general market to source vessels, so it would not come down to “US carrier” limits, its a global/regional pool.
there is a lovely map of EU LNG terminals and capacities here
Total EU gas demand in 2019 was 482bcm = ~17TCF
EU gas storages https://agsi.gie.eu/#/
NordStream2 designed for 55Billion m3/year = ~2TCF/year.
By my calc’s that’s ~5.2 BCF/day or = approx 1/2 total US (claimed) current LNG capacity. The original Nordstream is similar capacity to NS2 so between the two of them they would approx equal current US claimed LNG capacity.
Now, current LNG production capacity and terminal capacity isn’t really the issue IMO. Its the long term viability of US shale gas production and as many others have said here, the cost delta between cheap Russian gas and (any) LNG, but I think I may already be heading offtopic so will shut up.
hope this helps and I hope I’ve not had too many reds to mess up all my conversions….
We are closer to looking at a financial collapse, should be NG be delivered by land and/or sea, not only could the price be driven down, but all that fuel that is brought by boat or rail (coal), will no longer be needed, but the components needed to provide the services, still has yet to be fully paid for.
It appears to be the same as when the suez canal was opened, all the storage facilities owned by the brits at Cape Horn, were no longer needed but had not yet been fully paid for, resulting in western financial defaults which aiding to the panic of 1873.
To the best of my knowledge:
1) USA’s recent surge in natural gas production comes primarily from shale fields in Texas, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. These wells have a giant surge during the first year of production, but go dry after 2.5 or 3 years. Once a well is commissioned, there is a constant need to drill new wells to maintain production rates. Shale wells are very expensive to drill and commission, to the point it is not sustainable without (a) high prices, & (b) cheap money printed by US Federal Reserve and used exclusively by chosen banks.
Put simply, USA could supply lots for a few years, but not long term; the rest would have to come from Canada.
2) and 3) If Canada’s LNG plans are any indication USA probably does not have enough logistics in place to meet demand.
4) and 5) If the recent European “deep freeze” is any indication then the EU is not in a good position to simply cut off Russian gas. People like Greta Thurnberg have delayed construction of sufficient storage, banned hydraulic fracturing (Western Europe & Poland are said to have sizeable shale reserves,) and the EU still relies heavily on Soviet era infrastructure.
Reading the comments I think I have established some themes:
1. The Globalists need to go for broke. They need to subjugate Russia and China and Iran to complete their objectives.This to me suggests the spectre of nuclear war.
2. This is about Nordstream 2. This is more about the globalists maintaining the status quo. If they repel Russia from participating in the project they will be satisfied for now.
3. This is Ukranian idiocy and the globalists will hang them out to dry once they quickly outlive their usefulness. A temporary short term expedient and opportunistic chance to hurt Russia. This would be representative of the status quo from at least the 2014 coup.
Thank you to the Saker and all participants for an informative discussion.
The reality, in my opinion, is that Russia has no real expansionist aspirations. Why risk a new external dependancy impoverishing Russians again when you have, at least, the energy Asia and Europe need and the space tech the USA needs? You’re holding diplomatic aces, so fighting seems counter productive (in a sane world governed by sensible adults)?
BUT NATO and the West have insisted on breaking agreements reached during disolution of the USSR, medeling in internal and regional politics and encrouchment on Russian borders with military deployments. Russia is literally westwardly imprisoned by a new “paper curtain” and it obviously makes sense to tear/burn that curtain, if the opportunity should present itself?
During the late 19th, early 20th century we had a “seeer” in South Afrika, nicknamed Siener van Rensburg. The Russians having assisted the Boers in the Second Freedom War (1899-1902) and Siener being a Boer, he would probably not have been stereotypically prejudiced towards Russia as subsequent generations are due to USSR assistance to communist insurgents in the Apartheid era.
Siener predicted that after an extended drought in SA there would be good rains and the grass green. SA has suffered an extended drought for several years but the past summer rains have been fantastic, like I remember from my childhood. Siener predicted that at this time Russia would invade Europe and Turkey would attempt to reestablish the Ottoman Empire extending down to the equator in Africa.
He predicted that Germany and a weakened USA would ultimately check the Russian advance but conditions in Europe would be such that Europeans would flock to SA, the Boers would check the Turks’ advance at the equator, without a fight thanks to Divine intervention, and it would be well with the Boers thereafter. The war in SA would begin after the war in Europe is “far advanced” and be a short, yet very violent war.
What if Russia were to respond to provocations along it’s western borders and having run the risk posed by retaliation anyhow, the USA weakend (by internal strife, economic and/or natural catastrophy) decide to neutralize as many as possible imbedded threats in Europe with fast, decisive incursions into Europe exclusively aimed at winding back the clock, neutralizing threats and subsequently withdrawing?
As “surgical” as that may sound, it would probably end up being rather “messy” but ultimately be the necessary collateral damage to stop the insanity?
Could this be what the sixth seal of the Revelation is describing, the seventh referring to a great reset, just opposite to that envisaged by the globalists after this confrontation?
So I complefely agree. Whether there is a war or not, will not ultimately be Russia’s choiice but it could be enticed by NATO for several personal reasons like hiding the inevitable disintegtation of the EU, economic and societal collapse.
I listened to Biden’s speech carefully. After using the term “autocrats” to describe the leaders of China and Russia, and describing them as “rivals” I kept waiting for the response. So what are you going to do about your “rivals” being autocrats and beating you at your own game?
Well the response was all about domestic spending, spending on infrastructure, getting the population vaccinated. The US is going to outcompete and increase its engineering and manufacturing ability, create “good paying” jobs. Etc, etc…
And of course this was playing to the domestic audience, so little was mentioned about the overseas imperial footprint – except for Afghanistan – where Biden said he “couldn’t see” US troops there after 2021. Nothing was said about how to “confront” adversaries other than the domestic spending “build back better” bit. (And of course the US “Left” is completely silent on imperialism and war – which means there is no US “Left.”)
And I know that imperial aims are rarely articulated clearly in domestic speeches, but I’m left with the impression that the US will send the UkroNazis some more military hardware, and will definitely encourage them to launch conflict in NovoRussia. But when the entire thing flies apart, nothing will be done. There’ll be a lot of howling about “Russian aggression” in the press but nothing will be done. A big mess will be made and after the dust settles, Ukraine will continue as about half of the territory it now is, NovoRussia will become part of the Russian Federation, and then nothing will be done to change it. Because there are no real options. The US empire will continue its downward spiral as military spending keeps being a bigger drain on a collapsing economy. NS2 will be revitalized at some point as the US will lose its ability to influence German politics on this one. I think the German industrialists will win and get their pipeline.
But the chance of military conflict in Ukraine is almost certain, given the neo-con maniacs in the Biden regime. Because they are “all show, no go” the neo-cons won’t really have a response for the inevitable failure except for…what? More sanctions? More NATO spending? Well that’s something the grifters will definitely take! The Blue Team will turn the defeat into a domestic rallying point so they’ll win in ‘24 and that’s a real prize. The “russophobes” in the regime will have to settle for some juicy appointments, and think tank fellowships, their dreams of Russian conquest will simply be reconstituted as some other criminal scheme and they’ll bide their time for the next opportunity. That would be the best outcome.
“including by using tactical and even strategic nukes.”
That was already on the cards in 1946, when Truman declared and unleashed the first atomic bomb — and the world did nothing to prevent the spread of such weapons. The notion became more acceptable around 2000, when people began to speculate that Israel which possesses 600 undeclared big bombs was also beginning to experiment with little bombs equally ignored by the UN’s blind-in-one-eye nuclear so-called watchdog. Little by little, in comfortable small steps, the world’s population were groomed to the possibility. So now it has come out in the open: nuclear armageddon is acceptable.
“The road to self destruction is broad, straight and easy”.
OK, now it’s time for some reality. Weather has precisely zero to do with if or when the orcs will attack. Both sides are using Soviet Legacy designed equipment, don’t matter if it is brand new design or 60 years old, the principles are the same.
The spring and fall mud seasons are difficult, yes, but Russian equipment is designed to pretty much ignore this problem. In conditions where west designed and manufactured heavy and light units will bog down instantly in the rich black mud of the wet chernozim soil, Soviet/Russian tanks and wheeled vehicles will move.
Don’t believe? Why do you think in the second half of the 1914 war in ’41 the Germans had to rapidly design and supply Ost Ketten and Winter Ketten for the Pzkw 3 and Pzkw 4 units? Panther D, A and G and Tiger E with Tiger B were designed from concept with wider tracks that gave a ground pressure per square cm. significantly lower than the P3 and P4, ergo the mud seasons were no problem for them, as it was no problem for T34 of various marks, KV 1 & 2 and IS Dva. Even some of the Sov heavy artillery was on a tracked, not wheeled, chassis.
Ergo, pontifications of ‘weather affecting when the orcs will attack’ are useless. As an aside, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics. Supply is the life’s blood of any army.
Thanks Auslander for that info.
One question I like your thoughs on. The US has been flying planes with supplies direct from the US. Any thinking on what “wonder weapons” they are suppling the orcs with?
I do not know for certain what Uncle Sugar is giving to the orcs. I do know that there is some annoyance about the first load of Javelins sent some months ago in that it seems over half of them disappeared. At this time I have no information of said Javelins showing up in NAF service, but the orcs sell weapons and vehicles to NAF all the time.
They way I see it, regardless it technological differences.
NATO and Russia conduct war at different tempos
NATO warfare is designed around a more controlled techno precision strategy
Russian warfare is designed around a more chaotic faster paced strategy
Russia needs speed of action
To upset the more cumbersome NATO
A bit like the tiger tank vs the T34
Tiger is better tank in most areas
But T34 is more nimble and can alter the battle space using speed over firepower
So NATO and Russia are not compatible in approach
Outcome very unpredictable
Yes, I mostly agree with this and other previously-published analyses by the Saker on the current Ukrainian situation. However, I believe that there is also a broad scope of possibility for covert military action, by Russia, in Ukraine. If Ukraine attacks Donbass, in coordination with overt military pushback by Donbass militias and their reinforcements, suddenly key Ukrainian politicians and power-brokers may die or disappear. This may strike fear into the crazies and open up space for a more peaceful restructuring of the country.
Apart from the odd psycho, who the hell in the Ukrainian army would line up for a war against Russia! It beggars belief. People maybe militaristic, but not suicidal!
I personally think that we got carried away with development of the crisis upon Ukrainian attack on Donbas. They want Donbas under their control as the first part of agenda. Ultimately they would want Crimea back as well but that is not possible without open war with Russia. If they somehow take Donbas, which is literally impossible, they will pause for number of years. I think speculation about nukes and nuclear tactical weapons is excluded at least for the next 10 years. Russia will not openly intervene unless some other country enter Ukrainian side. Operation Oluja can give you some understanding :
– 30 K soldiers on Krajina side
– against 170 K on Croatia side
1 month before Croatian launched the attack, strategic comand centers in Krajina taken by officers from Yugoslavian army. These centers had ground to ground missiles reaching between 70 to 130km. In case we decide to use it. I have seen them getting towed across the border into Republika Srpska.
Nato had paralyzed our communication to a degree.
First 2 days of attack, line didn’t move for the millimeter.
Belgrade refused (Milosevic) to help , obviously as it was pre planned. Krajina headquarter decided to pull all civilian population towards Republica Srpska. Each unit commander got envelopes with directions / orders to withdraw from front lines. Most units obeyed after seeing civilians leaving in caravans. … some refused and continued fighting. ….
Out off all nationalities in ex Yugoslavia, we, the Serbians from Croatia have gotten absolutely the worst bloodiest end of stick. Serbs from Kosovo are aproaching our destiny. ..
As Milosevic thought that putting us down the drain, he will please Nato and west. He also believed “planting” us Krajina Serbs in Kosovo will strengthen his position in case things don’t go to plan. …
Anyway back to Donbas, as you can see , Donbas people hopefully are not facing circumstances he had to face. Having said that, Donbas will never fall. What will be the price in human lives for them? Probably big if war drags on more than few months.
BTW, Nato never had the guts to enter war on Yugoslavia in 1999 with ground forces.
Yes, Nato never had the guts to send in ground forces in 1999, but times have changed, the world “needs” a Great Reset. Last time we had a Great Reset was in WW2.
Just a short add-on:
Many soldiers left the lines worried about their families not been evacuated.
Kraina was small but protracted territory with very shallow tactical and operational depth with few roads in difficult mountainous terrain.
Roads got clogged by the civilians completely blocking the possibility for any tactical moves or resupply of the military.
One could speculate it was the primary intended goal of the evacuation decision.
And yes, Donbas is completely different history because it has supporting Russia in its rear (with combined operational and strategic depth of 7.500 km), pretty compact territory and flat terrain.
The thing to remember about Americans is that they love wars … provided that some other suckers are doing the fighting and dying for them.
In this case, the suckers are the Ukrainians.
If the Ukrainians drop their guns and beat a hasty retreat in the face of a withering Russian attack, what is America is going to do? Send its own troops to fight in their place?
No way in Hell.
America is a global war criminal nation and predatory empire.
But America is also a *cowardly* war criminal nation and predatory empire.
If America is left naked standing alone with all its Ukrainian cannon fodder deserting it, the USA is not going to confront Russia mano-a-mano.
America always loves to fight its wars by hiding behind the skirts of some bullsh!t Coalition of the Killing.
But America doesn’t have the guts to stand and fight alone against Russia.
The USA will blink.
Just ask Antony Blinken. ;-)
I have never seen such a panic tone by The Saker.
I know you have banned certain topics. Especially the way they argue it, you probably did right.
When fighting, there is no conspiracy. However, when one side can see defeat, there are 2 options.
1. Fight to a bitter end.
2. Find a compromise that affords a face saving climb-down.
Russia had always helped the enemy with option 2. E.g the Green Buses to Idlib.
Mrs Clinton wanted to take Russian resources for a few decades more of economic orgy. Trump said it is too dangerous. Putin knew there and then that Iran’s resources will be targetted.
Trump failed and was booted out. Still, Trump was right about Russia being too dangerous.
The West is climbing down before everything collapses. Now they need a military defeat to finally convince the citizens it is game over.
And “old” Biden is a nice scapegoat.
War has to come. How? The Ukies just wont start it regardless of any and all promises. Maybe a tripwire force to convince them.
War will come. The West desperately needs a military defeat to reset things.
Interesting twist, if nothing else. The west is provoking a conflict in which it knows it will be defeated, in order to ease the pain of collapse for its gen pop. I think it’s a stretch, but I’ve heard crazier things than this before. Still, I can’t imagine exceptionalist Americans ever accepting something like this.
Hit enter too soon on the previous post. The comment above has to win the Most Original Comment Award, for sure. Unfortunately, it also implies a level of “wisdom” (of sorts) to American decision makers that is nowhere in evidence.
It may be that this senile idiot in the White House thinks he has a serious chance against the Russian army. But the military in the Pentagon is much more realistic. It is one thing to plunge the American people into misery against the backdrop of a pseudo-pandemic. But it is quite another thing to turn the American and European continents into an expanse of glass and ashes.
There are no more profits to be made for the responsible elites, only losses. And the responsible military in the USA know that very well, otherwise they could put all their reconnaissance where the sun does not shine.
According to Mao Tse Tung, power comes from the barrels of guns. Let’s hope that this also applies to the USA and that the Pentagon ultimately says no to military adventures against Russia, no matter what fantasies any thin tanks may harbor.
Supporting your comments. Timetable according to Alois Irlmaier from the early 1950s:
1. First comes prosperity like never before!
2. Then follows an apostasy like never before.
3. A moral corruption like never before.
4. Then a large number of strangers came into the country.
5. There is great inflation. The money is losing more and more of its value.
6. The revolution soon follows.
7. Then the Russians attack the west overnight.
We Were Warned: The Visions of Alois Irlmaier https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ftzf9GPTTZ4
Also, if you speak German you will find this helpful. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=seSZTKIbAA4
To underestimate the NATO (or actually US resolve to push for conflict) would be a major miscalculation. If Russia don’t take the initiative, NATO most certainly will. They already did. US is officially waiting for Russia’s explanation on troop movements, and when they don’t get the satisfactory answer (which they’ll never get) we might see NATO rapid reaction forces being deployed to Ukraine in a matter of days. “Defender Europe 2021” maneuvers are not a coincidence! The goal is to provoke Russia in preferably moderate response to attack on LDPR’s as to get the pretext for what will follow next. NATO might provide Ukraine with means to damage or even destroy Crimean bridge, they will provoke the Russia as much as needed till they get a pretext to execute the next phase: activation of NATO article 5 and forming a true unified menacing fighting force under US command. To achieve this they will arm-twist Erdogan to submission with sticks and carrots, and Turkey will get all it needs to advance in Syria and Caucasus… even pan-Turan might be an option to contain the Russia.
Russia will be cornered on all fronts, their forces will be very thin stretched, no NS2, no Turkish stream, no SWIFT etc. Media demonization on steroids, sanctions against anyone doing any business with Russia, activating all of the 5th column inside Russia, sabotage of infrastructure and assassinations of Russian officials (like Iran Mossad style) etc. They are prepared to do anything in their power to destabilize, humiliate and discredit Russia, it will be a death by a thousands cuts. And the initiative to escalate will remain on the side of NATO as long as they need it. Global naval blockade, no fly zone in Syria, closing of Bosporus for Russia, seizing of all Russia’s assets abroad and giving it to Ukraine as a war damage compensation, cutting of internet and phone lines, cutting diplomatic ties and expelling Russian diplomats… they will keep increasing the pressure till Russia can’t take it no more, and people in Russia start to question if the whole world is really against them. I think that about to be activated NATO fighting force might be utilized to deal with any Russian allies, again with sticks and carrots… Serbia and RS in Bosnia will be a primary targets in Europe, Syria might see a massive intervention from Turkey and Israel and will be partitioned, Iran will be attacked by US/Israel, Armenia might collapse if attacked again, Georgia and Ukraine could be admitted to NATO by decree, Belarus will be invited to betray Russia…. I could think of much more but you already got the picture.
If Russia don’t act robust now it will lose a precious momentum and credibility, and it will be very difficult if not impossible to recover after that. It’s all about the narrative, once Russia is branded as an outcast and aggressor and its leadership as officially indicted war criminals, world will change for Russia. China might add some balance in Russia’s favor, but I’m not 100% sure that they really will. If China and Iran are true allies of Russia, they should announce a formal military alliance a.s.a.p. and go on counteroffensive in Taiwan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen… WW3 has already started, it’s just developing in slow motion for the time being.
Your points seem valid.
Regarding WWIII… five years ago I ordered a custom Velcro hat patch that said “Veteran – WWIII”. The point I was trying to make was that we are ALL Veterans of WWIII. I wore that patch proudly for three years. Two years ago, I took it off because nobody seemed to understand what it was saying. Same is still true today. 95% of the orcs have no comprehension that WWIII was and is already in progress.
“Does that mean that this conflict can turn into WWIII with nukes and all? My personal reply is that that this scenario is becoming more and more likely with every passing day.”
Mitar Tarabich says no – still too early for that.
[ https://bibliotecapleyades.net/profecias/esp_profecia07c.htm ]
Note what Mitar had to say about it –
“When this horrible war starts, woe to those armies that fly over skies; better off will be those who fight on ground and water.”
IMO, when Excercise WWIII commences, Turkey is likely to be pivotal to its progression. Too many mystics over too many centuries pointing in that direction.
So whatever strife eventuates in the Ukraine, it represents shifting tectonics but not the earthquake proper.
This looks a bit like the war against Serbia twenty two years ago. Nato intervened as such under the humanitarian cover. It seems this cover isn’t very useful these days, so we’re back to a more classical excuse for meddling in other countries’ affairs : territorial integrity.
What I fail to see is how Nato countries plan to cover their asses when war breaks out. From a legal point of view, that is a very important consideration. Ukraine is still not a member of Nato. What is more, it’s government is on record as an abettor of war crimes. Aiding such a government militarily puts leaders of Nato countries on a direct trip to the dock (and maybe even gallows). I understand Americans are too full of themselves to care about legal repercussions of their deeds, but the Germans, the French. The mere fact of starting a war is reason enough to be condemned for crimes against humanity. What will people in Western countries think when their captured soldiers are paraded on Russian television while standing trial. Heck, what would the UN have to say about it?
What I mean is there are far too many people with advanced legal knowledge in the West to simply allow a war to start. Not to mention that, from a military point of view, dealing with defeatism within your ranks from day one is not the best prospect for victory. Nato can be egging Ukraine on. Maybe because Washington expects Russia to occupy the Donbass. If Russia does away with the useless Ukrainian leadership in the process, then so much the better for Nato, because it then can claim a legal responsibility to occupy the western half of Ukraine.
In short, absent a grave miscalculation, this is just a first stage in a bigger game.
“Ukraine is still not a member of Nato. … If Russia does away with the useless Ukrainian leadership in the process, then so much the better for Nato, because it then can claim a legal responsibility to occupy the western half of Ukraine.”
You have answered your own question so to speak. As I understand it, NATO rules prohibit a divided country in turmoil joining formally. Therefore, in spite of the systemic zoo-nato-virus disease seeping in from the westward directions, Russia’s strategy of not formally embracing/annexing the two remaining disputed breakaway domains (Crimea is a done deal) — while at the same time providing Russian passports to the people etc — leaves Nato stuck with its shoe laces tied together. A rather brilliant strategic move, imo — albeit with human costs (although these would be the case with alternatives as well).
So, Russia moves a few seasonal troops exercises earlier to counter Ukrainian border moves. We all start fantasising about a cathartic WW3 scenario and life goes on. The Germans get their NS2 gas supply in the fullness of time (flowing by winter 2021 highly likely). Ukraine festers on as a failed state with reduced gas transit revenue (and opportunity to steal) and largely bankrolled by Biden Inc. USA 2022 mid-terms come around. Trump’s gang get the balance of power in the USA government and it is back to 50:50 stalemate (& print print print) until 2024. Should Ukraine splinter before then there is little doubt a buffer zone of Belarus style will be formed. The Poles (etc) ‘win’ some eastern lands and Nato moves a few km eastward but then hits a real hard Russian speaking (and committed) border. Life goes on. The poodles bark. The caravan goes to China.
China, Russia, Iran continue their longer-term economic plans. India begins to see the need to re-align. More of the diseased and dying western Boomers meet their ‘day-of-accountability’ (C-19 &/or influenza, take your pick) and the post-woke next-gen angry cycle begins its trends back towards male-female (& meddling eunuch) normality. And before we know it, 2030 is just around the corner with the fiat $usd losing any strangle hold grip on the global commerce and the apartheid occupation of Palestine crumbling into historic irrelevance – after all, it is not sustainable without massive USA infusions. Putin and Xi will be retired by then and the next mid-century agenda will be in place. To climate change; or not to climate change; that will be the question.
USA and rules, agreements, contracts in the same sentence is a sad joke.
As I heard somebody recently USA became what it was exactly because it broke all agreements when in position starting with American Indians.
Let us hope that this scenario becomes reality! The best weapon is the one not shot!
Nature abhors a vacuum. This vacuum will originate when Ukrainian leadership is no longer deemed necessary. This can happen because of lack of courage or, quite the opposite, being overzealous. To this one may add the usefulness of Ukraine as an entity. An orchestra is more than the first fiddle. Ultimately, the Americans might well end up facing territorial demands from Poland and others in exchange for their support. The carving up of the Ukraine is a probable outcome. All it takes for this to happen is the West changing its mind about the Ukrainian leadership. They’re already a nuisance and may well end up in the Hague. There also other players who eye a piece of the Ukrainian pie: big agricultural and farming companies who covet the Ukrainian soil. Maybe the West is just expecting the Russians to play along and take the Donbas, to give the West the excuse it needs to finish off that non-entity called the Ukraine.
So, let’s recap:
Ukrainians are now officially Nazis.
Biden is obviously a Nazi. And Trump, of course. Just as well as all U.S. Presidents since JFK?
Ok. Merkel is without a doubt a Nazi. She is German, after all, goes without saying then.
Boris and Macron? Nazis.
Well, here we are, it is The Holocaust 2.0.
Where is the poor Zionist to go now? He is surrounded, like Russians, by irrational Nazi hatred.
War by bloody Deception.
I think soon we must invent The Bolshevik Revolution 2.0. And the new Stalin. Then we can all sleep well again, do we not?
Honestly I can’t say I remember anyone on these threads saying anything of the bolded part.
Russia should concentrate in destroying the US mainland and any significant US bases located in foreign states and Russia should make the US aware it. Destroying the EU is of no benefit to Russia and once the US is taken out of the picture the EU will capitulate and beg for forgiveness. US is the head of the snake so chop it off. Once the US realizes that it can become homeless then they may just reconsider their actions.
Russia or the whole world must take out the head of snake of anglosaxon. 5 evil eyes, namely
England which has plotted Syrian war, Iraq war, gufwar, both word wars ad Ofcourse two cold wars as now.
Unless you take out england, nobody is safe from terrorism, destabiuzations, loot of wealth and wars.
So Russia must target a d destroy egand ability to wage wars iedisteky. After that Russia does not need to do anything-not even to usa
All in all an atmosphere of unreality pervades this charade. Despite all the talk of war, Russia continues to cooperate with the U.S. in space and elsewhere. The West’s manoeuvres in Donbas’ are more psychological than anything else, designed to maintain a permanent “state of readiness” and misdirect attention. Given that the West is currently unwilling to directly attack Iran, an attack on Russia would make even less sense, unless the West aims to eliminate Russia first before taking on Iran and China. (Bear in mind that the Ukraine, like Crimea, is an integral part of Russia, and the inhabitants of the Donbas’ are not only Russians, but also culturally more Russian than today’s acculturated, Westernised Muscovites. So an attack on Donbas’ should be regarded as an attack on Russia proper.) Nevertheless, Russia would have been in a far better position had it actively prevented the overthrow of Yanukovych in 2014; the emergence of pro-Western regimes in Armenia, Serbia, and Moldova; and so on. The Ukrainian military is quite motivated.
Just an update from Sputnik’s English language Telegram channel:
▪️Kiev is waiting for Washington’s go-ahead to resort to the forceful scenario in Donbas, DPR foreign minister tells Sputnik.
▪️Russia and the US discussed Ukraine last week, and Russia has no intention to provide any additional clarifications, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov tells Sputnik.
▪️The US is going to retire two OC-135B planes that were used to fly unarmed military surveillance flights over Russia under the Open Skies Treaty.
▪️The US might not impose tougher sanctions on Russia as it is seeking more aligned policy with Brussels on this issue, which does not have “a great appetite” for it, the head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia tells Sputnik.
It feels like this will blow over due to EU existential angst, with the orcs not getting any cavalry. But of course cold war MI6 public school old boys often have a false flag trick or two up their sleeves.
Can you give a link to Sputnik Telegram channel? I couldn’t find in Telegram app or on Sputnik website.
I think that the west is engaging on a path which leads to self-containment, a kind of identarian neoliberalism. Key to that is making sure that Europe stays on side and doesn’t get involved in the BRI ie have trade agreements with China / Russia. What we see here then a choreographed events which justify a barrage of orientalist spleen about anything east of say the dneiper. Ukraine has the misfortune to be on the borderlands and has been torn apart by these contradictions since the collapse of the Warsaw pact and more obviously since the EU declined to enter into tripartite talks with the Russians to resolve Ukraine’s contradictory position of being aligned to Russia in terms of trade and an aspirant member of the European Union. Yanukovich switched sides when given inducements and threats by Russia of the consequences of leaving the Russian block and aligning with the EU. At that point the Nazis were instrumentalised to achieve a military coup using color revolution tactics. The EU forgot about an agreement it under wrote the year before.
What we see here is the logical outcpme of these events as Ukraine becomes more vulnerable without Russian support and the people are zombified by a decayed regimes propoganda.
I think the Chinese will come out overtly to support the Russians (again) and the containment the west will inch along until their is little contact between the east and west. My question is where will Ukraine and Europe sit medium term in that order and is that order sustainable medium term. I don’t think it is long term. Do we expect proxy wars to break out all over the periphery. Ultimately what happens to say global institutions as the post WW2 framework is smashed on the alter of US hegemonic globalism and it’s satraps?
Honestly, all this looks like a mere attempt to strengthen the New World Order’s global-governance apparatus rather than start World War III. Localised conflicts that weaken existing states, regardless of alignment, end up strengthening the monopolists and financiers. NATO and Company simply lacks the human material to carry out large-scale, high-intensity, ground-based operations against Russia. Most, if not all, Western militaries are in advanced state of decay, largely privatised, and subject to such machinations as “woke” ideology. Mercenaries, feminists, pederasts, aliens, and junkies alone won’t finish the job, much less achieve victory. Only a West that seriously wishes to be destroyed would launch World War III now, without serious societal preparation and/or reconstruction. The West obviously has always been the master of propaganda, but currently it lacks a high calibre and professionalism of soldiery, which is desperately needed in the event of a multi-front, global nuclear conflict. Privately, actual professionals have warned that, however badly the West would lose to Iran in a kinetic conflict, it would lose even more badly to Russia. The leading globalists are not stupid: they are “in it to win,” so to speak. The West needs another five years or a decade to be fully ready to take on Russia, China, and/or Iran. We are already in one phase of World War III, but many other things still need to be readied.
Hi, another geopolitical update:
Kiev Announces It Will No Longer Attend Minsk Trilateral Contact Group
This was predicted and anticipated by many. I expect some noise from Blinken.
Moscow holds emergency talks with US over fighting in Donbass as Ukraine says NATO exercises will train troops for war with Russia
Can anyone shed light on what was discussed? Is it reported in Russia? Are the orcs telling porkies or for real? Thanks.
From the article:
“Around 20,000 American troops will participate, along with a 17,000-strong contingent from NATO member states and non-members like Ukraine. … An official statement for last year’s smaller-scale initiative said it would bolster “Alliance-wide readiness and capability to deploy and respond decisively against any adversary in a multinational, multi-domain, high-intensity conflict… executing large-scale ground combat operations against a near-peer adversary in Europe.”
So 37,000 troops are apparently sufficient to win “high-intensity…large-scale ground combat operations against a near-peer adversary (Russia) in Europe.”
This either sounds like a feint, or an intended suicide. The only winners would be the Anglo-Americans.
“There is a lot of speculation about what the consolidated West…..”
One of the speculations is that “the consolidated West” exists.
Perhaps some may remember the question posed in January 2014
“Stop the Empire’s war on Russia”
“At most, the Poles (who else?!) to move a mostly symbolic force into the western Ukraine (Lvov, Ivano-Frankovsk).”
Perhaps spelling errors ?
Lwow, Stanislawow, Wolyn?
On 24 March, two of the SNP MP’s most closely aligned to Nicola Sturgeon, Stewart MacDonald and Alyn Smith, asked for a meetingwith the British internal security service MI5 to discuss cooperation against Russia. MI5 is the agency charged with countering perceived internal threats to the UK state; Scottish nationalists, environmentalists and anti-nuclear campaigners are among MI5’s major targets. Until a few years ago, the vast majority of Scottish Independence supporters would have regarded MI5 as a particularly egregious manifestation of their traditional enemy, the British state. Yet here was the SNP officially – MacDonald and Smith are the party’s Westminster defence and foreign affairs spokesmen – calling for cooperation with MI5.
his is the opening paragraph from Craig Murray’s latest blog.
Moscow holds emergency talks with US over fighting in Donbass as Ukraine says NATO exercises will train troops for war with Russia
Article from RT
Don’t forget https://tass.com/ as a source of information. They are running a timeline on the right hand side of their English page and at least publish all formal statements. Here are a few with very short summary.
– Moscow warns Washington of consequences of Kiev’s provocative policies in Donbass
Representatives of Moscow and Washington held contacts on the situation in Donbass, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told TASS Tuesday.
– Russia alarmed by recent statements of Ukrainian leadership on Donbass — top diplomat Moscow is alarmed by Kiev’s statements regarding the situation in Donbass, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a press conference
– Kremlin doesn’t see signs of intent from Kiev to take control of its army in Donbass
“So far, we can’t see signs indicating that the Ukrainian side wants to somewhat calm down, drop bellicose rhetoric hidden behind the talk about some imaginary threat and take control of its army units that are deployed directly along the contact line [in Donbass] and that often become a source of provocations,” he said.
– Ukraine’s admission to NATO will only exacerbate crisis in southeast, Kremlin says
MOSCOW, April 6. /TASS/. Kiev will only aggravate the domestic Ukrainian crisis by its decision to join NATO, this idea is unacceptable for people living in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DPR, LPR), Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters Tuesday.
What will the Empire do to support the Ukronazis?
Well, after reading all these threads and posts I will have to add something I do not see anyone imagining…
You people tend to overthink it, when this side does this the other side will or can do that.
Very reasonable in such situations, being logical, informed and all
Me thinks ONE and only true FACT that matters is – we are all dealing with utter PSYCHOPATHS!
They do not care one bit about the consequences as long as the suffering continues.
So how about this:
They blow up one of those Ukrains nuclear powerplants and blame it on the Russians as soon as the war starts.
(whatch out for the wind direction going Russias way)
Something like that is far more probable than any conventional or nuclear conflict imho.
Also, as far as NS2 goes, if I was Russian I would not count on it as something of concern. The only thing it is good for is some far fetched possibility that Germans see the light and reverse course for their benefit. Do not count on it.
So many times Saker and other like him say west is no partner to talk.
OK. thats obvious for many years now.
Why is there no other approach?
You open a channel to talk directly to western PUBLIC, issue statements directly, God knows there are probably thousands of points to be made and get some folks in the west thinking.
One option Putin has is to make an example of a Western nation as a deterrent and proof of intent, without striking mainland Europe or the United States. The UK has been the central provocateur. The Steele dossier for instance was an “ex-“ MI6 creation. It is remarkable how, like an Agatha Christie story, almost all the crimes Russia is accused of have some key linkage to the UK. The UK doth protest too much.
Striking the UK leadership may even escape retaliation by NATO and would the UK’s retaliation even be effective as a few Tridents are 1980s tech and no match for the S500?
Perfidious Albion is one of the major puppet-masters behind most of the wars and conflicts that we see in the world today.
Of course, this is the United Kingdom’s historical role on the world stage dating back centuries.
It is long over that the United Kingdom be ended as an entity.
Centuries worth of karmic justice is waiting to be dropped on the United Kingdom’s heads.
Some key excerpts from Igor Strelkov’s take on the Donbas crisis posted today on South Front:
“The development of the current political situation in Russia, whatever directions it would move in, sooner or later will lead to an armed conflict with Ukraine. No matter which side would instigate the conflict. If the power remains in the hands of the so-called “Putin’s team”, the conflict will develop according to the current scenario and, as a result, most likely it will dissolve into armed one in short or mid terms. Even in case of radical changes in Russia and the coming to power of pro-Western opposition, the escalation would not be avoided. The Ukrainian military thought is based on the core ideas of deoccupation of the Eastern regions and taking control, in its further advance, over a good part of Russian territory. For example, it is referring to the Rostov, Krasnodar and even Volgograd regions. Thus, the weakening of Russia as a result of internal political turmoils may lead to the decision of the current Ukrainian leadership to start a major military operation in the regions with strategic goal to give checkmate to the Russian Federation.”
“Igor Strelkov adheres to this position throughout the entire conflict in Ukraine. The longer the conflict drags on, the more the nationalist regime that came to power in Ukraine strengthens. At the same time in Russia, the so-called “Crimean effect”, i.e. social excitement, build-up caused by Russian geopolitical successes in 2014-2016, is weakening. In previous years, this phenomenon contributed to increase the level of support for the Putin’s government.”
“Firstly, one should take into account the current domestic political situation in the United States, where a transitional period with the new government is taking place. A participation in a military conflict is possible only if there are threats to a key ally of the Americans, which Ukraine is not.”
“At the moment, Washington has a number of problems of paramount importance for maintaining its global influence, which does not allow it to openly intervene in the approaching war in Ukraine. However, in the near future, in a year or more, the Biden administration will strengthen US positions in key regions. Nothing will be able to contain it.”
Strelkov’s opinion radically differs from what we can read on this blog (for most of the time) particularly his view that the more time Kiev has, the stronger the regime becomes, quite contrary to Saker’s opinion that Ukraine is about to collapse. I don’t think we can question Strelkov’s patriotic credentials or object to his rather sobering analysis of the situation.
Can Russian leadership have seriously underestimated the danger that the pro-American, rabidly anti-Russian regime in Kiev poses for Russia in the long term? The success of Nuland’s coup in Kiev in 2014 should’ve turned on the red alarm in the Kremlin, as it becomes quite evident that Washington’s plan from the beginning was to create a festering wound on the Russian doorstep and their investment paid off. No matter how this conflict plays out, lives will be lost, the economy damaged, and seeds of hatred sown between the one and the same people (save for the inhabitants of Galicia obviously).
Seven years have passed since the Maidan, the Nazis are more influential than ever, almost every trace of opposition to the regime extinguished, and the population either docile or tacitly (and unwillingly) supportive of the regime policy, if for no other reason than to end the war and return to some semblance of normality.
Ukraine is a gigantic knife pointed directly into Russia’s heart and Washington is holding the handle. The sooner this knife is removed, the better, political fallout be damned.
I am no expert. but a wild guess can be permitted. The war will be stopped and the nazis will have to retreat. That will make them furious and an upheaval may break out in the Ukraine. The dead battalions will rage a huge turmoil and Ukraine will fall apart. It is snowing in N Europe and the ice age is nearing and nearing. the general climate may interfere
Saker, thank you for all you do.
I would like your opinion on a thought I had. There is a lot of talk about ns2 and the benefits for USA if that happens but why stop there, as a country they are in a mess and losing global influence big time, so how to solve internal and external issues, well create a war on mainland Europe, let it destroy itself as in ww2 and who benefited most post ww2, of course USA, as it was the main manufacturer and suppler to the west, so they could recreate the same scenario and make USA gray again. Sure they may lose a few boots on European soil but hey. Russia would not bomb USA mainland if this stays non nuclear, the conflict zone remains Europe. I would be very interested to hear views on this thesis. Many thanks
Peskov is saying Moscow sees no signs of Kiev reigning back the bellicosity and army. Says nothing should be done to incite the military(which could be either side????…ie Donbass hold back toe the line until Ukrops go over the top which might give rise to expansive retaliative action ).
So is he saying that should Moscow come to believe and says the ukr army is sufficiently out of control and gone rogue and acting independantly of Kiev( hinting-?-whether or maybe under Nato direction and “encouragement”) ….then it deserves anything it might recieve……that kinda puts Z on the spot as the commander in chief being called out..if he is or not…..and if not……
….there have been previous situations where ukrop army and rogue elements has done its own thing…and even influenced Z to back it against his original wishes.
But if Z acknowledges that .. there is a possibility of returning to the true version of Minsk not the dodgy version Ukraine seems so desparate to implement….is this an “offer” of a get out from current escalation? His Chiwf of Presidential office Yermak has previously said at a presentation of G20 envoys they are committed to a peace process….must observe the ceasefire.
Somehow Russia has got to split up the so far conjoined issue of Crimea and Donbass as Ukraine territorial integrity and somehow nullify
“Following Kuleba’s comments, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced via Twitter the creation of a Crimean Platform Initiative which the Ukrainian government described as “a new consultative and coordination format initiated by Ukraine to improve the efficiency of the international response to the occupation of Crimea, respond to growing security challenges, step up international pressure on Russia, prevent further human rights violations, protect victims of the occupying power and to achieve the de-occupation of Crimea and its return to Ukraine.”
Ukraine is just a ridiculous artificial construction like the 1918 Poland. An oversized entity flexing non-existent muscle with the backing of the major powers of the day (UK then, US now).
I wonder if Saker might game out proposed borders of Ukraine. I assume the corridor from Novorossiia to Crimea goes to Russia, plus Kharkov and Dnipropetrovsk. Does Kiev as well? The Lvov section becomes independent Ukraine. Hungary gets its compatriots back as well.
Or, do we believe the analysis that Russia seeks a stable Ukraine and a larger buffer against NATO? Someone on one of these threads suggested that as soon as an independent Galician Ukraine becomes a State, it is easier to join NATO and then you have NATO right on Russia’s border.
NATO has been on the land borders of Russia since 2004 via Latvia and Estonia.
NATO is also more or less on the maritime borders of Russia in the Black Sea via Romania and Bulgaria (also since 2004).
The territory of Kaliningrad as part of the Russian homeland, then the following NATO countries Poland and Lithuania are also right on the borders of Russia (since 1999 when Poland joined).
I think Russia is doomed. It cannot react as the entities around GAZPROM still want to trade with the West.
Russian public is not prepared for the sacrifices of big war.
So, nuclear option is the only one preferable, and that would be the end of the world.
Russia is full of natural resources. Now, everybody wants to grab a part of it.
On my way to work I seen airplane above … Out of curiosity checked on flight radar app . Boeing RC-135W Rivet Joint ( RAF ) landing at Wadington airfield after sortie in the Black Sea near Crimea . Just now , 1620 / 06.04.2021
One thing most commentators miss, is that Russian sons, fathers, uncles, nephews, cousins etc. are going to die. Don’t wish a new war on Russia. Will Russia fight, Yes, but only if necessary. I don’t want my extended family killed.
The question posed by Saker (what will the empire do to support the Ukronazis) raises another question: Support for how long? Juggling with the semantics : what would it take for empire to not only drop the Ukronazis (the kurds in Iraq quickly come to mind), but to make an example out of them (Sadam Hussein also in Iraq)?
The point is this: if we admit that the Ukronazis (and the Ukraine for that matter) plays a role in a much bigger game of bringing down Russia, could it not be the case that certain elements of that game have a limited playability (I apologize for the term but it suits the chess simile which I had in mind)?
The final goal is to destroy Russia, I think everyone will agree on that. But even the West realizes it cannot defeat Russia from its current position. Not only Ukraine is problematic, also Turkey in that same area is poses an unknown. You can say that Biden is senile and the rest of the political cast are morons consumed by hubris, yet you have to allow that there are plenty of strategists in the intelligence community and army. In any event, I consider it wise never to underestimate your opponent.
The above being said, we can consider intermediate goals on the way to crushing Russia. One of them is securing a much better position to deal Russia a devastating blow. In order to do that the Ukraine needs to be permanently acquired (this means being able to install military bases). With the Ukraine disappeared, dealing with Turkey becomes a necessity. A replacement of loose cannon ball Erdoğan has been a high priority item in Nato’s agenda since at least the last failed coup.
Coming back to the question posed by Saker :
Support for Ukronazis comes in the forms of pep pills to egg them on to attack the Donbas and commit war crimes in the process. Nato of course will have plausible deniability. Russia has a twofold role to play in this game, from the western perspective, the first is to defend the Donbas. If that means Russia occupying the Donbas, then so much the better. The second is to deal with the Ukronazis. If the Russians shut them up in military camps or whatever other punishment the “barbaric” Russians mete out on them, then again, so much the better.
Nothing is really new here : the West created and supported the first Nazis but it was the Russian who had to finally stand up to them. Same here: the West will egg the pathetic Ukronazis on to meet the Russian meat grinder. The only question remaining is will the West reclaim the privilege of a second Nuremberg.
What if Russia organised a false flag operation like the West has done on many occasions. Blow up something on Russian soil,then they could hit a few utilities in Ukraine like a gas transfer facility or a coal powered power station or a few bridges. If Nord Stream 2 was stopped plus Russian gas from Ukraine was also disrupted,it would be lights out in a lot of places. Peace is an easier option.
I don’t agree with the general trend in this discussion or Saker’s most of Saker’s points. First there is no such thing as a single imperial line on this. Even Washington itself is deeply divided. Much of this division was hidden by the universal dislike of Trump and need to keep up a united front against him. The threat of Trump in particular and populism in general is seen by the elite, no matter the faction, as an existential threat and thus united to meet this threat. But today, in a chaotic Biden administration, there is little unity. We can see this dramatically with the dearth of foreign news in the mainstream (propaganda) organs of the State and focus on domestic concerns.
The bottom line in Washington is always the bottom line. The factions all agree that each racket needs to be fed–for example, the health-care racket has been guaranteed high profits from a whole series of agreements like forbidding any kind of universal health-care, government support of high drug prices and so on. In the same vein the military industries are supported by making sure that a certain level of spending is maintained and that international tensions are maintained either through making up imaginary threats (Russiagate, Syrian gas attacks etc.) or making sure tensions are increased through insult of provocative actions–the nonsense in Anchorage directly aimed at insulting the Chinese government and people in order to create a reaction or stirring things up in Ukraine. Washington knows very well that Russia has no interest in anything other than not being invaded by the West. It’s goal vis a vis Russia, is continue the strategy of outspending and outflanking Russia through a series of feints (the ruling elite know very well that the US military is largely incompetent and corrupt) designed to force Russia to react and spend money with the sure knowledge that Washington has absolutely no limit to the amount of money it can spend for both the military and the covert operations complex which is far larger and more powerful (and more corrupt) than most people suspect. The security institutions exist to exist and have little interest in actually the security of the citizens of the USA–in fact, all major institutions exist simply to exist and continue to reap money from the rackets that have surrounded Washington/NYC/LA. I just don’t think anyone in that complex wants to risk the gravy train being undone and Saker believes there is a clear almost ideological agenda for the Washington regime—there isn’t any agenda other than keeping things as they are. Yes, there are some strong fanatical factions that would love to create major war even nuclear war but there are counter-factions among “realists” who actually believe in international stability and the making of money through aforementioned rackets.
I’ve been around foreign policy for much of my life and know how the professionals think (I’ve been out of the loop for over a decade though) and while they believe Russia/China are a danger to their view of how the world ought to be most of them are realists. I’ll give one example you can check out for yourself–for example, the difference between the CIA operations types and the research people are huge–that latter are quite sane and knowledgeable about the world the former are mainly criminals–and there are several intel agencies who have similar splits and know very well the actual situation in Ukraine and see the same things the Saker sees–only the Saker does not, in my view, have a good understanding of Washington politics with it’s factions which are not usually ideological but, if you can imagine, a raft of networked “gangs” who each are after their own personal/group interests and much less the welfare of the West.
Hmmm…the Qatar Ukraine Turkey triangle consolidates? Remember Qatar refused to Lavrov on his visit to let Syria back into Arab League and has been suppling arms etc to Syrian militant rebels…..Qatar delivers arms orderd by Turkey via airforce planes…. Turkey supplies Ukraine….
“The Ukrainian delegation signed with Quatari side 13 important bilateral documents and two commercial contracts as Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on Facebook. Zelensky noted that the signed memorandum concern attraction of investment to Ukraine, development of agriculture and confirmation of Ukraine as guarantor of food security in the world. Besides, the agreements on cooperation in the sphere of energy, infrastructure and prospects of military and technical cooperation were concluded. “For the future we provided the possibility of investment in the banking sector. We agreed on mutual recognition of sailor certificate. Another step is the recognition of national driver license,” Zelensky noted. Related: MP: Zelensky lied and flew to Qatar earlier to bask in the sun for state expense Meanwhile, according to the guarantor, the next year, Ukrainian police officers will help to provide orders during the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar. Besides, Ukrainian-language audio guides will be presented in Qatari museums. Earlier it was reported that the Office of the President of Ukraine is working on the preparation of a large Asian tour of Volodymyr Zelensky, within which the President plans to visit the countries of Asia and the United States. In February this year, Zelensky paid an official visit to the UAE.”
Zelensky goes to Ankara onApril 10th.
Rumours? Turkey is forming Jannisary military group of ex Syrian militants to go to Ukraine….and whole of Western Military District Russia has exercises? Missile movements?
The Western debt empire believes (possibly correctly) that it can attack Russia by proxy and that Russia will only retaliate against the proxies. If you want to dissuade someone from attacking by proxy, you need to convince them that you will skip the middleman in your response.
As suggested here several days ago…
Russia needs to clearly announce in advance that the test firing of one or more of it’s missiles – either Burevestnik or several submarine-launched cruise missiles – will take place soon off of the east coast of the United States. This display could serve to demonstrate to the psychopaths in Washington, D.C. that their own lives are on the line if they are so foolish and blind as to attack Russia.
The US is not ready to start a full-scale war with the use of nuclear weapons, said political scientist, leader of the Essence of Time movement Sergey Kurginyan on April 3 on the Right to Know! TV program on the TVC channel.
“I do not believe the US will start a sudden global nuclear conflict,” said Kurginyan.
Won’t happen, how can you profit from the devastation a nuclear war would bring? At the very most there will be a short ‘conflict’ or ‘crisis’ or ‘situation’
Saker you’re spot on that it is the military facts on the ground that will determine if there is war or not,not words of politicians. I just heard the latest video of Alexander Mercouris where he lays out his opinion that there will be no war because France and Germany are reading the riot act to Zelensky. Where have I heard this before. Did France and Germany’s disagreement with the US over leaving the JCPOA amount to anything. No! Did France and Germany, being members of the Normandy 4, force Ukraine to abide by the Minsk Agreements. No! Will France and Germany’s recent joint statement have any influence over Ukronazis’ threatening invasion of the Donbass. No! Zelensky has zero personal agency and the Ukronazis will take their orders from the Biden Administration and the deep state. I’m sure, irrespective of the naivety of Mercouris, Russia and the Donbass will size up the military situation on the ground and pay no attention to France and Germany.
By the way Mercouris got it all wrong regarding the Azerbaijan-Armenia resolution of the war. He thought Russia was foolish and in a weak position vis-a-vis the war and Turkey. Boy was he wrong. Russia brilliantly diplomatically increased its military clout and leverage in the Caucasus. But you know let’s see who will be right and wrong in Ukraine. Maybe Mercouris will prove us wrong. Time will tell.
Let’s wait for Putin’s speech:
This is of high importance and would bring some clarity to the ongoing things and what might happen in the future.
When things are about to happen or shift gears, Putin gives a speech and this acts as a sort-of cornerstone of how things move forward in Russia and in the world.
As a side effect of choice of time, this means that it is highly unlikely to have a major war before the end of April.
I have no insightful clue to offer, so I let you with a tale instead:
One afternoon, The Saker was wandering In a wood in Belarus (there are no woods anymore in Florida, apart from a few tress in the Evergaldes) when he came across a lamp on the grass.
Holding it with its beak, he gently cleaned it with the feathers of his left (yes, left) wing. Then there appeared a genie, who was surprised at first:
Genie: – “A saker?? Well, saker, thanks for releasing me. I will provide you three wishes”.
The Saker: – “Mmmm… that Putin decides to wipe out the Aegis launchers in both Deveselu in Romania and Redzikowo in Poland.
– Any order?
– The Polish one first.
– Done. Second wish?
– That Putin decides to wipe out every military presence of the US in Syria.
– Done. Last one?
– That the S-400 along with the other Russian antimissile devices do cope with all incoming missiles, shooting down them all.
– All of them? Minuteman, Trident, Tomahawk, everything?
– Yeah, all the stuff.
– My bird!
Dear Saker, thank you so much for all you effort of giving so much insightful and relevant information for people all throughout the world.
Be Saint George blessing Russia at this crucial moment.
Point #5 is the big worry. Hillary Clinton’s office as Secretary of State wrote an internal position paper calling for the direct bombing of the Assad regime. The paper claimed that Russia would do nothing just as it did nothing when Serbia was bombed. Do the current US and EU power elites believe that Russia under Putin is some sort of paper tiger? Add to this that the Western media, think tanks, and US government officials have no clue and rely on neocon fantasies to understand Russia. As Byran Macdonald of RT points out, even Western reporters based in Moscow are clueless. Do Biden and Stolenberg believe all they have to do is glare and Putin
will back down? I hope there is at least powerful person who is not deluded.
Russia should cut of gas supply to Europe for a week/month, before restoring supply, just as a harbinger of what _could_ be !!
First of all, NS2 is not important, what matters is TERRITORY. Therefore, Russia will not fret too much about NS2, and that will not be on top if its priorities if it comes to open hostilities.
Second, Russia is demonized already and I don’t think they will give a (removed language,MOD) about what ‘collective west’ will think of them. That train has gone long ago.
If it comes to shooting war, the most likely scenario IMHO is partition/occupation of Ukraine on Syria model – Russia would hold some 30 – 50%, NATO will take the rest after carefully analysing how far Russia is ready to go. This is defeat for Russia and will encourage western hyennas to continue biting on all fronts.
Second scenario, that assumes Russians has learned their lessons well, is total occupation of Ukraine, expulsion of russofobe ukrainians in small area around Lvov and giving them some autonomy there. Rest would be incorporated in RF within 5 year period. Nato would probably have tried to send some units in Ukraine to show it is relevant and to test Russians, and that for sure would not be american troops – most likely poles or some other dumbass cannon-fodder types. In this scenario, Russia would have mercilessly pulverize those nato elements the moment thay cross ukrainian border and are identified. Declaring no-fly zone over whole Ukrainian aerospace would be in effect from 1st minute of conflict in any case.
While sounding militaristic, avanturistic and dangerous, this last scenario would be most beneficial for world peace in the long run, for following reasons:
1. Americans would not risk WW3 over Ukraine, cancelling NS2 and increasing arms sales to Euro-vassals would be quite O.K. for them.
2. Russia overrunning whole of ukraine and destroying whatever NATO elements within ukrainian borders would show to non-agreement capable and non-rational western ‘leaders’ that Russians means businesses and are ready for immediate showdown. That will have immeadiate peacemaking effect on them.
3. Western psyche always appreciate mercilles and brutal power and respects it. They will in this case far more respect Russia than now, considering it weak and incapable.
4. Short and brutal overrun of Ukraine, accompanied with destruction of some NATO elements there, would also help EU and american citizens to become better persons. They would no more believe in fancy stories their leaders telling them (we are the greatest, unbeatable, masters of the universe, etc), but would become more humble and human. That’s what god beating and dose of fear always makes of ignorant bullies.
5. After this eventual scenario, do you think any of the euro-vassal states would dare to hold maneuvres near Russian border and/or send planes and ships anywhere near? I think not. Also, we can be absolutely sure that no euro-moron would ever again dare to say that they would ‘negotiate with Russia from position of power’, ‘keep Russia in check’, ‘show Russians their place’ and similar autistic nonsense.
So yes, for purely peace-loving and humanity-promoting reasons, I do believe Russia would opt for second scenario and go for broke. This would bring peace and tranquility to europe on the long run. Not to mention better life for ukrainians, even they did not actually worked too hard to deserve it.
This is as much Russia’s fault as anyone’s. They should have invaded and crushed the US installed government in 2014 and taken over Ukraine. Instead they acted like crybabies for 7 years while the US armed Kiev, complaining to the UN and trying to resolve it diplomatically. They let the problem fester and now it looks like it’s coming to a head. This is another in the long list of boneheaded moves by the Russian government over the last decade.
You said that the west is misreading Putin and the Russian people, but what are they supposed to think? Russia has permitted the Donbass to be attacked, they have permitted Israel and the US to attack Syria, they failed to retaliate when Turkey shot down their plane, and when Israel caused the deaths of 15 Russian airmen several years ago (partly Russia’s fault for not supplying Syria with the S400 missile defense system).
Russia is a paper tiger until they prove otherwise.
The mistake you make is the assumption that the U.S. government establishment is now capable of rational thinking. What those clowns do or don’t do will be a surprise to everyone, including them.
Why is Putin playing a chess game against Biden who would have trouble thinking two moves ahead in a game of checkers?
I weep at the insanity of the fools that think they need an enemy. I always project what would be the situation if Russia had troops in Canada, & Mexico…subs off both coasts…but Russia is not an aggressor…only protecting it’s borders…peace
Sometimes it works. Kruschev got rid of the US missiles in Turkey, pointed at the USSR, with the Cuba move in ’62. As a bonus, the US promised not to invade Cuba again.
I am confident that the Biden administration does not have the support of the American people. Despite what the main media says the majority of Americans see the Biden administration as fraudulent, criminal and corrupt. I believe only politicians corrupted and controlled by the Chinese Communist Party will push America to hostilities with Russia. The CCP believes they will rule the world if they can maneuver America and Russia into destroying themselves. The good people of America and Russia must stop the march to war.
Who are the biggest contributors to the International Space Station? You guessed it. Russia and America. How does an American astronaut get up there? A Russian shuttle. There’ll be no hot war. Give it a rest
what will they do ?
bark , saber-rattle , sanctions , media campaign , huff n puff , and …
that’s all ,
yeah , just put entire Western Europe to sleep :
cut the ocean cables !
Bulgaria has never been in an alliance against Russia. In the Second World War, Bulgaria was a neutral country. He does not send troops against Russia. Come on, let’s study history, (quote) as it is. And, thanks to the West, communist Russia has been living and killing the Bulgarian people for 45 years.