by Ghassan Kadi for The Saker Blog
It seems that every time a chapter in the war on Syria comes to an end, a new factor surfaces. Just like the 1975-1989 civil war in Lebanon before it, and which started off with a clash between the PLO and the Lebanese rightwing Phalangist militia and then ended up with an Israeli invasion and its aftermath, the war on Syria is now a totally different war from the one that started seven years ago.
With other players gone or having their roles changed, the only persisting player is the Syrian Army of course, fighting here for the integrity and sovereignty of Syria. We cannot include its allies, because even its allies have changed.
There is much speculation about recent events, a lot of war and fear-mongering, but if all elements of the current powers on the ground are dissected and analyzed, it becomes very easy to see what is going on and who is doing what.
Before we try to understand who is doing what and why, let us first identify who are the main players on the ground and behind the scenes; past and present. This is a short list:
- Syria of course
- Saudi Arabia
- the USA
Notwithstanding the inevitable continuing role and presence of Syria and popular national Syrian allied forces in the war against her, we must acknowledge that Saudi Arabia and Qatar have already played their role and walked away as losers. For the sake of historic documentation, this had to be mentioned even though they do not have much of an influence and clout at all at present.
Kurds are playing a role that cannot be discussed without acknowledging the role they played between 2011 and 2015/16. Kurdish fighters, separatists or otherwise, have upheld Syrian border integrity in Syria’s north from as early as 2011 when the Syrian Army had no allies on the ground. And even though the Syrian Army and Kurdish fighters did not fight physically within the same trench, the Kurds fought fiercely in the north, holding their ground, against Turkish-facilitated incursions and against ISIS later on.
However, as Kurdish separatist movements were established and as they were not preemptively contained under the roof of Damascus, something had to give.
Kurds who are separatists will do anything and make deals with anyone to make their dream come true. History has shown that they are prepared to join hands with America and even Israel.
It must be acknowledged however that Kurds who are not separatists, and there is no way of telling their percentage any more than there is a way of telling the percentage of those who are, do not seem to have much of a voice in their community. Furthermore, seemingly there isn’t an all-inclusive nationally-endorsed rationale where they can address their concerns against those who are separatists and in a manner that can allay their fears and apprehensions as a minority group in such a way that would quell their desire for independence.
Turkey’s role has been changing with the tides in the last seven years. From wanting to topple the Syrian Government and Erdogan praying at the Omayyad Mosque as the conqueror of Damascus, Erdogan is now in a much more humble damage-control mode hoping to at least be able to prevent the formation of a Kurdish state south of his borders. The turn of events in the war, and the bargain plea reconciliation he has had with Russia after Turkey downed a Russian Su-24 in Nov 2015 has put Erdogan in that position. But Erdogan, the compulsive Islamist and nationalist, will always try to look for opportunities to turn and stab anyone in the back because his dreams of a great Turkey-based Muslim sultanate are bigger than any deal and treaty he signs with anyone.
That said, Erdogan will not settle for any outcome that will mean the establishment of a Kurdish state. Unless the tides change in his favour, it is highly unlikely that he will change course and demand more.
In effect, the war in northern Syria is more or less totally separate from the one heating up in the south with Israel.
Iran: The Syrian theatre has brought Iran physically closer to Israel in a manner that opened up a new border line that is bigger than the one Hezbollah has in Southern Lebanon. Israel does not have the reciprocal privilege. That said, whilst Israeli presence is not officially recognized in states like Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, there is little doubt that the Eastern coast of the Persian/Arabian Gulf is under Israeli direct or indirect control in more ways than one.
That said, it must be remembered that Iran’s issue with Israel is doctrinal and not territorial.
In brief, Iran’s military presence in Syria is in adherence to the common defense treaty it has with Syria, but it is also aimed at protecting Iran’s own interests and establishing military presence and rocket-launching capabilities that are only a few kilometers from major Israeli cities in comparison to the one thousand or so kilometers that separate Israel from Iran, or at best a couple of hundred that separate the east coast of the Persian/Arab Gulf from Iran’s southern cities.
Given that Iran is not a nuclear power and Israel is, based on the above, any conventional military confrontation with Israel will put Iran in a position of advantage.
Iran’s status in Syria can be either seen as offensive or defensive vis-à-vis Israel. Most likely, it is defensive, and Iran is unlikely to use its Syrian-based positions to initiate an unprovoked attack on Israel given Israel’s nuclear deterrence.
Hezbollah: In more ways than one, ideologically-speaking, Hezbollah is an extension of Iran. But strategically-speaking, Hezbollah is a part of the Lebanese political process. Moreover, Hezbollah’s issue with Israel is both doctrinal, and territorial.
Hezbollah went into Syria to defend Syria of course, but in defending Syria, Hezbollah was defending itself and Lebanon.
The supply lines for Hezbollah came from Syria, and this is no secret. But even if Hezbollah had to establish alternative routes after seven years of war, Hezbollah remains dependent on Syria for ensuring the depth of its survival and ability to fight. Even if Hezbollah went further and managed to establish its own military manufacturing base, and this is not unlikely, it remains entwined with Syria at levels that are essential for its survival and continuity.
Ideologically, Hezbollah is perhaps closer to Iran than any other ally, but strategically, it cannot be closer to any other ally more than Syria. To expect Hezbollah to yield to pressure and withdraw from Syria prematurely is tantamount to expecting North Korea to surrender its nuclear arsenal.
Israel: It wouldn’t be surprising to say that the post-Kissinger USA has left Israel feeling secure and privileged to the extent that it was able to coerce the world’s single superpower to rubber-stamp what suited it; even if it was against the interests of that superpower.
However, with all the support America gave Israel, Israel was not able to find peace, real lasting peace. Military superiority and peace are two different things, and America was able to provide Israel with the former, but not the latter.
But even that military superiority that meant once upon a time that Israel was untouchable has been eroded. The rise of Hezbollah to power in a manner that enabled it to bomb “Haifa and beyond” in July 2006 has sent shivers down the spines of Israeli military strategists.
Israel now has no idea what to expect if and when another military escalation ensues with Hezbollah and it is bracing for the worst.
Given the latest confrontations with the Syrian air defenses, Israel seems to be in a similar position in not knowing what to expect from Syria either.
The USA: In all what the USA has done in supporting the initial Saudi/Qatari/Turkish attack in the war on Syria, it achieved nothing more than defeat after defeat.
If there was ever a time during the last seven years for America to launch a major attack on Syria, it would have been done on the pretext of a chemical weapon attack allegedly perpetrated by the Syrian Army on Eastern Ghouta, but Obama did not take the Saudi-orchestrated bait. If Obama took a single and somber decision for which he will be positively remembered once all the dust has settled, it will have to be his decision not to attack Syria in early September 2013.
But Trump’s America inherited a Syria in which America has no presence or influence. The ailing nation cannot be seen to be standing still doing nothing about this.
Russia: Discussing the role of Russia was left till the end because to emphasize once again, as per previous articles, that the role of Russian diplomacy is becoming increasingly important in Syria and the Levant in general.
To put all of the above into a realistic perspective, there is a potential war brewing in southern Syria, a war that has little to do with the one raging in the north, and only Russia has the potential of dealing with the conflict.
There is no speck of doubt in my mind that Russia has a Middle East peace plan.
There is no doubt in my mind that Russia wants to catapult America out of its role as the Middle East peace talk negotiator; a role that it played for more than four decades now without any scores on the board.
It must be remembered that despite all the concessions PLO leaders gave Israel, America was unable to provide any peace to Palestine, and not even to Israel for that matter. It is highly likely that even Israel is growing tired of America’s elusive promises of peace; and the peace Israel was promised was based on quashing the axis of resistance and establishing toothless puppet Arab regimes that dance to America’s tune, and who would normalize relationships with Israel and not pose any threat at all, not now, not in the future.
So Russia is strengthening her position in the Middle East in preparation for the opportune moment to elevate herself to be accepted by all parties concerned as the single arbitrator who is capable of negotiating an all-inclusive deal.
The rest is simply posturing.
The recent escalation between Syria and Israel is not a prelude for a bigger war. Nobody wants a war; not right now, as they are all aware of the damage that can be inflicted upon them.
Israel keeps testing the waters, testing Syria’s air defense capabilities, and above all, testing Russia’s resolve and determination to create a true balance of power in the Middle East.
Some Arabs would be disappointed that Russia would not allow the total destruction of Israel, but Russia has never promised this. On the other hand however, Russia is pushing Israel to be realistic, and has never promised Israel total and unconditional support like the USA did since the days of Kissinger.
Unless Israel can safeguard itself against Hezbollah rockets, and which it can’t, it will never initiate an all-out war with either Syria, Hezbollah, or both; not forgetting the Iranian presence on the ground in Syria, just outside Israel’s borders.
Israel has to either accept that the rules of the game have changed, or risk an escalation that will inflict huge damage on its infrastructure and civilians. The recent downing of an Israeli F-16 by Syrian air defenses and the subsequent call Netanyahu made to Russian President Putin is a clear indication that Israel is not happy with the fact that Russian arm supplies to Syria are changing the balance of power.
An astute look at recent events can only propose that Russia is trying to drag Israel into peace talks that are based on a regional balance of power, but Israel is not convinced yet that it has to do this anymore than it is convinced that it has lost its military upper hand. On the other hand, Russia will find it very difficult to convince Syria, Hezbollah and Iran that they should have any peace at all with Israel. All the while, America realizes that it has no presence in the war in the south, and is using the Kurdish pretext to have “a” presence in the north in order not to miss out on being party to any settlement. Erdogan is doing his bit to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state in Syria. Other than that he has no role to play in the potential brewing conflict in the south. At the end, America will stab the Kurds in the back like it did many times earlier, the Kurdish aspirations for independence will be pushed back for many decades, and the real focus will be on the south, on Russia’s yet undeclared role and plan for a Middle East peace plan.
The war in the north is essentially happening because of the US poor diplomacy and failed coup against their own reckless guard dog Erdogan. They are now stuck in a situation where their own allies, that are both under US official military protection, are destroying one another. I feel like the failure of the US plan B with the turks is now directly causing the failure of plan C with the kurds (plan A was the alliance of moderate head choppers).
It reinforces the feeling that the US decision makers in the deep state are making stuff up along the way with little to no coordination. The anglo-zionists only have themselves to blame for this situation. The only question is how long are they gonna look at this disaster unfolding before they come up with something else that may throw one of their allies under the bus ? The rest of NATO is looking outraged bu the actions of Erdogan, so he won’t get any support from them, while the kurds would be delusional to expect the US to choose them over an official NATO member.
As far as Afrin goes, I think the kurds have the capacity to hold the line for a long time against a turkish army recently purged of its leadership for reasons linked with Erdogan’s paranoia. This historically results with vacant officer ranks being filled with incompetent yes-men in the short term. The amount of troubles the TAF ran into, in the short period of time since the start of its campaign in Afrin, is a proof of that. How many tanks will they send to the chopping block in this difficult terrain before catching up with the reality on the ground ? The kurds have probably got their hands on a large supply of ATGM to deal with this type of offensive. The wahhabi mercenary groups like Al-Zinki are used to inflicting terror against civilians under their occupation (like in Aleppo), not at fighting an entranched guerilla in the hills and mountains.
In the end, even if the kurds have a shot at defending their positions from the turks, they won’t be able to do anything against the SAA at the same time. The US air strike against syrian defenders of the “ISIS hunters” group is just an empty gesture that sadly cost the lives of of yet more syrians, but achieved nothing else.
Finally, about the south, I wanted to talk quickly about Al-Tanf. What is the US military still doing there ? Syria and Iraq are linked via the Euphrates valley now, so just how long do they plan to supply a position in the middle of the desert that is no longer of any strategic interest ? Are they really so arrogant that they plan to sit there for years just to not have to yield the position to the syrian people ? To help speed things along, the budget of this financial black hole around Al-Tanf should be researched and exposed to the public in the USA.
The only feasible way to liberate Al-Tanf I can think of is a 2000-5000 Syrian Kurds YPG army loyal to the government marching down. Any “defensive strikes” against them will trigger a huge reaction in north-east.
U.S. is maintaining an avenue of approach for Israeli Air Force, broadening the front and providing deaf to protection for their repetitive incursions.
Henry “Deep Throat” Kissinger, manages to neutralize his boss Nixon and thrusted the pro Anglo-Zionist camp into a dominant position.
Unless the Anglo-Zionists (Call them whatever: neoliberal, neoconservatives, Christian Zionists, JINSA, ADL, ZOA, Wolverine Clinton Clan, Trump Dump, …) is curtailed, they are going to enrich themselves by sucking our childeren’s treasure and blood, while outsourcing/exporting the jobs/power to China (their next victim).
Al-Tanf is going to be a US military base for the long term. It will serve as an affront to Syrian independence and an assertion of American power, just as Guantanamo has been to Cuba. This is also true for several unnamed/unknown positions of American troops in Northern Syria and Iraq. They are not going anywhere because they are the “boots on the ground” that “defends” the American empire.
The South and the US is already entwined. The DEZ is an agreement between US, Russia and Jordan, with Israel as stakeholder.
This is where the CIA bankrolled the “moderate rebels” and where the most resistance came against the Syrian Army.
It is the one “deal” between Putin and Trump.
To say, the US is out, I think, is an error.
The US won’t be out because of the Daraa rebels, the Jordanian camps where US trainers do their thing (and where some died), the US base inside Israel, the gas,oil and water resources in Golan, the Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, the usefulness of al Nusra under new labels.
The south also plays tandem with al Tanf, which the US won’t leave.
I could think of a few more very relevant reasons, but I’m a bit eye-weary this evening.
US ain’t going away, especially in the south.
Oh, yeah, one more reason—Iran, Iran, Iran.
I think the fiasco with the IAF F-16, someone called it an ambush, marks the beginning of the campaign in the south. It was necessary to tell US and Israel the new rules (“We will shoot down your planes because we can.”) and it was better to do so with an IAF F-16 than a USAF F-22.
Which first? I guess the rebel area near Damascus (b/c Damascus), then Daara, then Al-Tanf, then the Golan.
Pay back time for 9/11. The Shia Crescent was intentionally created for this purpose only. This resulted in 20 years of wars and trillions USD lost, but the time has finally come.
As it has been said, the 70 years of ISISraHell is a page in history, and nothing more.
The people who press the Shia Crescent plan are the same ones who support Israel with no limits. Many of these same people have citizenship in both Israel and the USA, while holding positions of power within the US financial, political, and military-industrial-national security state. There is no daylight between CIA and Mossad. I would like to know how many members of the CIA have citizenship in Israel, or if that’s where the line is drawn, that is where their loyalties lie. Maybe not well known, but all the members of the OSS, forerunner of CIA, were members of the Masons. I think it fair to say the vast majority of US elites are pro-Israel at America’s literal expense.
Perhaps you are right, and Israel will end a footnote, but only in the case of the successful drive for control of the world by NWO allies, their one world government and money. The Babylonian money majik makes all possible. Even the sacrifice of their ‘homeland’. But the plan has always been to rule the world with the headquarters in Jerusalem.
You’re actually right about the “IS” part:
IS = ISIS
RA = RAH (the evening Sun God – probably the same as JHVH)
EL = ELOHIM (meaning lord but literally refers to Horus – Lucifer “the son of the morning” in the Age of Aquarius under a New World Order – who was born of goddess Isis, and hence the semiotic connection of the Takfiri ISIS to the Talmud and Kabbalah).
From your mouth to God’s ear.
It’s not the whole Al nusra only HTS and the minor bands in Syria who felt benefits the US subversion programs under CIA. Generally Al Qaeda affiliated groups is handled by KSA wahabbistan and such leash is very weakened after recent stunt of young princeling MBS for wanting ‘moderate’ Islam. That’s not what they want they want and add to that with the nefarious Israel ties. Nobody likes MBS not of the traditional allies anyway except the gulf ‘house of cards’ monarchs which in general enjoyed themselves off the privilege given by the western capitalist system.
I should say Israel or more like the US led coalition have very little allies in the region much less mercenaries. Ideally Iraq should be more destabilized with KRG peshmergas as well other paramilitaries outfit in Iraq to be locked in multiple Crossfire right now. But it didn’t. Only Syria and Yemen and Syria conflict is fast approaching conclusion if it didn’t interfere right about now.
Ghassan Kadi seems to have nailed it with this article, but I had a big question pop up after reading it: what’s going on with the oil? He doesn’t mention the oil fields at all, and I don’t recall that the Saker has ever mentioned them, either. I heard somewhere (sorry, I’ve had two strokes and don’t remember things very well, so I don’t remember who said it) that the US controls 80% of the oil coming out of Syria. Maybe it’s not important, and maybe the oil fields are basically shut down, which makes sense for a war zone, but I don’t know. I guess Syria will regain control of them as she regains control of her territory.
Anyway I appreciate this article, because it’s hard for me to figure out what’s going on over there. There are so many players, and so many plots, and it seems that few of the players talk directly and frankly. It’s good we have folks like Kadi and Saker who work full-time to gather information and think about it all.
I have read somewhere that the oil fields are damaged and currently not in production. No doubt Herr Trump smell the $$ and believes the U.S. deserves it and claim control as payback for all that they have sacrificed in Syria in their glorious defeat of Terrorism and that awful ISIS. What is going on with Iraqi oil is another interesting question, exactly who has contracts and etc.
The Chinese are, and have been working with the Syrian government for years now. Logistical support, medical equipment, training Doctors and medical field units. Among other things. Some speculate that the Chinese have given Syria unlimited credit and grants. The Chinese are already the primary source for building Syria back from all the destruction it has suffered. The Chinese are neck deep in Syria. Same goes for Afghanistan and its estimated trillions in minerals. Anyways, one of the routes of the One Road-One Belt silk road will go through Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. I suspect the Chinese to tell Zionist Israel to go f–k itself. They’re not in. Because Israel and American Jews in power in the U.S. are openly hostile to China. Calling it a ‘disruptor’ nation.
Right now, Israel would lose in a most devastating way if a new war broke out in the southern theatre. Just think about it. Syria, wrecked by war for 7 years has little to lose. Everything has been destroyed, not a very target rich environment for the Israeli air force. And the Syrian Arab Army , after 7+ years of grinding war of attrition against a fanatical enemy , have been distilled down by now to the most effective fighting force in the world. Hezbollah too have grown Big muscles fighting in Syria, employing tactics that I seriously doubt the IDF can effectively deal with. Urban conflict, no problem for the SAA and Hezbollah, in open terrain, also no problem either, in the hills and mountains, same there too.
One must not forget that the U.S. is in the middle of re-tooling, re-enlisting and new production, their militaries branches. After Iraq and still Afghanistan, the U.S. military had to fix itself up, that’s why the U.S. cannot go into a regional or broad war until at least 2022. This is why the U.S. military Joint Chief of Staff told Obama in 2013-2014 the U.S. couldn’t make a move on Syria.
Thus Israel would be alone. Its pathetic foot soldiers would crumble under the most experienced, by far, tenacity and tactics of the SAA, Hezbollah and the IRGC (especially the Quds Force of General Solemieni).
The mentioned trio have been iching for decades for an opportunity such as a new regional war in the Middle-East. Even Iraqi Popular Mobilization units would be in the action. Thus, they will all role up the acres all the way to Tel-Aviv and Jerusalem. It would be a rout. The IDF are mostly soft, tender exchange students from Brooklyn New York, and places like that. They are only good at sniping at innocent civilians in occupied Palestine.
Look, as far as Israel having the major edge because it has nukes is far from the truth. Iran has every square meter of Israel mapped out for ballistic missile bombardment. All of Israel could, and would be on fire should Israel use a nuke or two. Another thing is that even though the leaders of Iran, especially the Supreme Council have stated that they will not develop nukes because they believe them to be ‘in-Islamic’, that could very well change very quickly with a simple ‘fatwa’ changing all that. And Iran would be able to assemble a nuke in weeks, if not already having plans for precisely such an event.
Israel is bluffing, perhaps its time to call the bluff.
Oil is important when you understand that it must be ‘oil for Israel’.
Longterm view from analyst Canthama at Syrper:
“time is Syria’s ally, have said it for the past 6 years. I am still impressed with cool attitude from the Syrian leaders, they can take huge punch and still do not lose the long term view.
The Syrian Government is negotiating with the Syrian Kurds and Arab tribes in the north/NE, the US regime is trying to sabotage this at all cost (visa vis the last attack in Deir ez Zour).
The US military are only tolerated in the north and NE due to sort of an agreement with the local Syrian tribes, if this local agreement collapses, insurgency will happen and dead US military will pop up as in Iraq, Somalia etc. Either the US will have to open war against the insurgency or declare victory and leave as they did in all previous cases, including Vietnam. That is why time is in Syria’s favor.
The no1 priority for Syria up till now was to reconquer all central land, and get Aleppo-Damascus rat free; now they will go for the elimination of the remaining pockets in West Deir ez Zour, Northern Homs, Dumayr and East Ghouta. These 4 pockets are holding up well over 50,000 soldiers (my guesstimate); once it is done, these many thousands soldiers will be redeployed to other areas and will continue to get every inch of Syria back.
Time & patience, that is what I have learnt from the Syrians, a remarkable people, more than any I have known.”
And Canthama’s assessment of latest event:
” a critical part of todays Syrian air defense was the jamming system. IDF were unprepared for it, they lost the initiative and reacted desperately to get out of Syrian airspace. The Russian jamming system messed with their air-to-ground missiles, and their long range ballistic ones as well. The result was what we saw: 1 F16 down, 1 F15 severely damaged, 2 other jets damaged (not IDed), 1 drone down and one chopper down. This is huge loss of planes and pilots by IDF standards, for just 1 attempt; not to mention dozens of missiles that “just few went thru” but did not hit their targets, same thing as happened with Trump’s 59 US cruise missiles of which 2/3 were “lost in space”.
So, yes, the Russians and Syrians did that together, and the message was not for little Israel at all, but to the US. Israel was a cats paw in this [to pull the hot chestnuts out of the Syrian fire for the US Army] and they know it, and they are mad to be downgraded to cats paws.
The US regime knows that the real message was for their illegal occupation of NE-east Syria. More to come.
And Pave Way IV assessment of latest event:
“1. ISRAEL DESTROYS AN IRANIAN UAV
They’ve destroyed dozens of ‘Iranian’ UAVs the last year or two – the ‘fact’ that they claim to have taken one down yesterday is insignificant. Whether it’s the truth or another lie does not change the ‘fact’ that they had a long-planned mission to destroy air defenses around Damascus and T-4. They could have used any pretext as an excuse – ‘Iranian UAV’ works as good as any.
2. SYRIA/IRAN SHOOT DOWN AN IDF/AF F-16I
Iranians were part of shooting it down? [chuckle] No doubt with a Sarin-filled SAM. No, Syria did all the shooting here, period. Maybe some pointing help by the Russians, but no damn Iranian SAMs. And this should have been #3, because the Israeli aircraft involved were part of a larger pre-planned scheme that likely involved CENTCOM watching earnestly. The Israeli attack on the Iranian UAV control trailer is – once again – a convenient and lame-assed excuse.
Anyone familiar with SEAD knows this entire charade was an operation targeted Syria’s air defense network, not a UAV trailer. Russian ‘help’ with radar feeds isn’t going to help Syria when it has no more SAMs or launchers to fire at Israeli aircraft. They are not going to to be buying any replacements any time soon. Once they’re gone, they’re gone. Israel knows that.
Seriously, I would have to be an idiot to think this was just a few Israeli F-16s making a mad dash for T-4 and Damascus. Israel is more than willing to pay the price of a few aircraft/pilots to further destroy Syria’s remaining air defenses. And they’re far from over – it’s not like they’re going to stop. They just have to wait to see how successful their ‘another Iranian provocation’ propaganda plays in the US. I see the US MSM forcibly restraining themselves from over-reporting on this, but they have predictably planted the ‘justified retaliation for Iranian UAV’ message. I expect to see many tearful interviews of the Israeli pilot’s family, but not so many of the SAA air defense guy’s families.
3. IDF DESTROYS SYRIAN/IRANIAN AIR DEFENCE SYSTEMS AND C3 POSTS
Which Israeli al Nusra/al Qaeda ground forces failed to do to the degree necessary despite years of efforts. Their paid head-choppers took out the Golan-facing section and outlying air bases/air defense sites, but got their asses handed to them in the mountains overlooking Damascus. It has been Israel’s goal since before the war started to eliminate all Syrian air defense so they can violate Syrian airspace at will in their self-declared war against all Shia and Iran (and create non-threatening partitioned, chaotic Syria).
CENTCOM is also licking their chops at the thought of destroying more critical infrastructure and (further) ruining Syria economically to punishing those God damn disobedient Syrian civilians! Has the Pentagon’s strategy really changed at all since Libya, Iraq and Iran? Psychopaths always stick with what they think worked before.
“…The more we make those God damn Syrian little people suffer, the harder it will be for them to keep supporting Assad. We just need to punish them harder so they understand. Why won’t they OBEY us?” Quote
At Least One Israeli F-15 Was Damaged Additionally To Downed F-16I In Recent Encounter With Syrian Forces – Media
Interesting points there ..thanks.
Your comments are questionable. This is not the first time Syria has destroyed an Israeli plane. It did that some years back, while last year it damaged an Israeli F-35 using an old S-200 missile system. The F-16 it shot down a few days ago was obviously shot down with an S-300 missile system. A number of Israeli missiles were also destroyed, and additional planes damaged. It’s a well known fact that Russia has strengthened Syria’s military. This must also apply to Syrian AA missile systems. Now that Russia has intervened, obtaining military bases in the process, it certainly has no intention of letting Syria down.
I suspect one or more senior IDF mission planners are going to get the axe over this.
The F-16 I “Sufa” has excellent rear facing countermeasures, but the zone of coverage is fairly narrow. Missions are thus planned with longer range munitions, so the plane can turn and place all enemy SA batteries in that arc. For example, recent missions launched weapons from over the Mediterranean.
This screw-up mission, brought the aircraft too far in and the SA batteries were able to bracket & saturate the environment so that threats existed out side of the defensive arc. Apparently, 12-20 SAM’S were used to engage and overload the F-16’s defenses.
The armed Iranian UAV entering Israeli air space on an attack mission was provocative. However, rushing the response and ending up with a poorly planned mission is clearly an “unforced error” by the IDF. It is highly unlikely that this mistake will be repeated.
The current U.S. Administration has jettisoned the Obama/Erdogan “regime change” concept. They are quite willing to work with Assad and Putin, if the end-result will lead to an actual peace.
However, as long as Iran and Israel are butting heads, there is no way to move forward. The smart move for Assad would be ordering all Iranian and Iranian proxy forces North of Highway #3. 99%+ of ISIS and Turkish invasion forces are North of #3 so the deployment would be strategically sound. Once Iran and Israel are are out-of-range of each other, there should be opportunities to stabilize the situation.
In so far as your list goes might this story be simplified by saying the ME conflict is Israel Vs the last opposition standing: Syria&Iran+Hezbollah(with them in Lebanon), Turkey’s on it’s own fence. Kurds are Palestinians with guns,
Israel’s under the same ownership as the West. Israel will never ever give anything away. Both the north&south of actual/real Syria is apparently rich in oil & the want to own everything is so very very ‘you know who’.
Dear Russia did well and lost some good men to help remove the old style terrorists, thank you. Whether Russia’s ownership is also interested in retreving Syria’s old time borders remains to be seen – it be a long hard slog giving time for Western collapse (as money’s no object ‘so far’) Vs major conflict, so we’ll see. Ta for the interesting article.
such a controlled discussion of Israel- Thanks Ghassan…Israel is such a frustrating entity- here’s a great video of what is the truth about Israel – its Ken O’Keefe talking about quite a bit – but really – what he says about Israel and the banksters is right on. http://dai.ly/x63f8ec
Thank you for reminding me of Ken O’Keefe. I remember to have seen him on RT, but since then I had nearly forgotten about him. First thing I did was to save his web site http://worldcitizen.uk.net/. An attempt to visite his site was greeted with the following message:
“Bandwidth Limit Exceeded…….The server is temporarily unable to service your request due to the site owner reaching his/her bandwidth limit. Please try again later.”
Either his homepage is frequented by lots of people or someone is sabotaging his efforts to get his message spread. I fear the latter is the case, since critical thinkers are a threat to TPTB.
amazing video interview with Senator Black – must watch – on Syria – https://youtu.be/LiU-XdKiaRY
@Ann. Tried that link. Failure, “this site can’t be reached”. Senator Black of Virginia is one of the Righteous Yankees.
mod-to note: Seems to work fine, and is a good interview.
@Mod. Thanks for checking, I tried the link again and it worked. Sorry for posting a mere temporary hitch.
Israel has never been an endeavor with broad-based Jewish support, but a grotesque vanity project, and yes, imbecility by the Jewish Mafia. The price for this paramount idiocy was always going to be high, it not today or tomorrow, then in a thousand years.
From day one on, the Jewish Mafia’s henchmen selected to run Israel – all thuggish, big-mouthed, bad mannered, arrogant, lacking finesse, spirit and common sense – set out on a insane suicide mission, abusing all its neighbors just for the heck of it, dreaming infantile dreams of Eretz Israel to the horror, disgrace and shame of all Jewish people and humanity at large.
Israel’s mad philosphy of glory by mayhem has continued unabated to this day. Until yesterday, February 10, 2018, to be precise, when the always considerate, calm Vladimir Putin suddenly raised his voice and shouted, “Cool it, kids…!”.
Only time will tell if the Jewish Mafia bullies have ears to hear and eyes to see, or not.
I think the Kurdish leadership are (finally, hopefully) getting the feeling they are being used by the US/European coalition.
Mr. Kadi is also right about Kurds. It is wrong to throw them all in one basket. I, as a Kurd would personally see Kurds being pro Syrian/Iraqi/Iranian, having cultural autonomy so that the language and culture doesnt vanish. Turkey is where the Kurds should have their own state which they deserve and have the right to.
First the (in my opinion) bad leadership of the Kurds should be replaced.
The best president in the last decades (Putin being my second favourite) Gaddafi said the following:
I advice u to watch it several times and think especially when Gaddafi talks about collaborators.
Also think about why Gaddafi didnt get any help/support from the entire Muslim world. The North Atlantic Terror Organization bombed Libya in the month of Ramadan. People were breaking their fasting. Why o why was the Muslim world with their heads in the dirt?
Iraq was invaded, bombed into oblivion. Not one Muslim nation stood up and did anything.
Afghanistan is still occupied for so many years. How many Muslim countries are there??? Why isnt anyone supporting Afghanistan? Christian Russia is the only nation that is trying to help Afghanistan by bringing the Taliban and the Afghan leadership to the same table.
What a sad state the Muslim world is in.
I guess God chose Russia to be the savior of the world instead of any useless Muslim country.
@Anon: “I guess God chose Russia to be the savior of the world instead of any useless Muslim country”.
Do not despair, have faith in Allah the Merciful, the Compassionate, Whose Wisdom was great enough to create the Universe, while human wisdom is too feeble to do more than lift a tiny corner of the veil. Put your trust in Justice, and in those Leaders who work for Justice. Look at the strength of the righteous Leaders, the compassionate Leaders: Rev.Nasr’Allah of Lebanon, Dr.Assad of Syria, the wise Leaders of Iran, and the Martyred Ghaddafi of Libya. What makes you say these Muslim countries are useless? As for Russia, it is true this Christian country saved Europe twice: saved us from Napoleon and saved us from Hitler; also, under President Putin, saved Syria from NATZO. But the Russians would laugh if you told them you thought God chose Russia to save the world. Christian Russians believe that God chose only One to save the World: a humble Man, a righteous Man, a compassionate Man, a Man who lived without sin and was martyred without feeling hatred. God does not choose nations, God loves a person with clean hands and a contrite heart.
As for Ethnic Rights and Preserving the Culture and Deserving a National Home, all I can do is repeat: “God helps those who help themselves — and God help those who don’t”.
Enjoyed your comment Dr.Maroudas, it couldn’t be said better.
As you said Ghassan:
1. ” There is no speck of doubt in my mind that Russia has a Middle East peace plan. ”
2. ” So Russia is strengthening her position in the Middle East in preparation for the opportune moment to
elevate herself to be accepted by all parties concerned as the single arbitrator who is capable of
negotiating an all-inclusive deal.”
This can be rephrased as:
1. Peace is continuation of war by other means.
2. Putin has weaponized peace.
3. Lavrov has weaponized politeness .
Best regards, Spiral
Posted by Sheila in SyrPer re Turkey/PKK/Syria/France:
“MIHRAC URAL is a Turkish Alawite, who leads the pro-Syrian government Syrian Resistance group. Ural stated that the Turkish attacks on Afrin will fail. He was interviewed by Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi last Thursday.
His group has the goal to ‘return’ the province of Hatay to Syria, also known as Alexandretta, that was gifted to Turkey by France in 1939. Ural said, “The attack on Afrin is one of tyrannical oppression. The neo-Ottomans think that this war will be a picnic, but the Syrian people of Afrin, all its components, have resisted this neo-Ottoman imperialist wave”.
Ural played a major role in establishing links between the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the Syrian government in the 1980’s. In the interview, he did not even mention the socalled SDF”
Great article! I think it sums up very well the situation, as it is now. I dont think the at least cordial connections Israel – Russia can be disregarded. A war where Russia is on the opposing side is not politically possible in Israel. Israel has always had a an ear in Kremlin, and Kremlin has always had an ear in Israel.
Whatever despicable nation they have emerged into, the Israelis are not stupid, the Israelis are not a solid block, the Israelis have widely different views on where Israel should go in the future.
Nethanayhoo’s shouting anraging about Iran is all show boat, both Israel and Iran acknowledge that they exist as regional powers, they can not be undone without the involvement of the major players USA – Russia and in the end China.
Israel is accutely aware that the OBOR initiative would also benefit Israel, although not directly, but still would be a boon for Israel. The Palestinian “problem” is the final hurdle though.
Great analysis – but let’s not underestimate the US as a force for intentional in uncontrolled chaos.The degree of inanity in the US political elite can never be over-stated.
While there are those in Washington who work along conventional lines for conventional aims of diplomacy and mutual interests, there are the others – very powerful – who work for chaos alone, either because they think they perceive advantage to them and their masters, or because they are so genuinely psychopathic that chaos and death is its own reward – or at least better than admitting defeat.
This factor makes any analysis based on rational assessments of geopolitical interest only partially accurate in my view. The US is the insane wild card that still might do anything for any reason.
Syria: The people may not have liked Assad, but compared to the alternative (Daesh), he’s doesn’t look so bad after all.
Kurds: I feel sorry or them. Hated by many people, especially the Turks. They should just make peace with Syria and Iraq and just live as an autonomous region in those two countries and live happily ever after.
Turkey: With Erdrogan as ruler, it’s going to be a very bumpy road. A guy that not even his own shadow trusts him.
Iran: Her history says it all. A proud people who should never be excluded. If one does, a price will need to be paid.
Hezbollah: An entity that has matured very well. A force that needs to be reckoned with. No BS coming from them.
Israel: She needs to recognize she needs true peace with her neighbors. She can’t BS everyone all of the time. I used to be very pro-Israel. I”m getting kind of tried of it.
USA: My beloved country. Her stupidity is now catching up to her. Both foreign and domestically. She has become like TV reruns. They get very old very fast.
Russia: All this happening in her own backyard. Do you think she would allow it to get out of control? No way , Jose. God bless her.
Reports: Ukraine preparing triage camps for inhabitants of Donbass February 9, 2018 – Fort Russ News
“This is not the first time that such information has come to us. Two years ago, Ukrainian soldiers had taken pictures of building such a camp in Talakovka, saying they were proud to build such a place for “Russian pig dogs”.
And several Ukrainian politicians like Edward Leonov and Yuri Mikhalchichin (member of the Svoboda party) have already made such proposals in public on Ukrainian television regarding Russian-speaking Ukrainians or Ukrainians of Russian origin.
No, you are not dreaming (or rather are not in a nightmare), in Ukraine, neo-Nazi politicians (must call a spade a spade) can say it publicly on TV, without judicial retribution, that part of the country’s population deserves to end up in such camps simply because they are Russian-speaking or of Russian origin … Ah, the post-Maidan democracy, there is nothing to say …
It seems that a preventive cleansing of the populations on the side occupied by the Ukrainian army is also planned, most certainly in order to prevent the republics from obtaining information on the coming attack.
We understand, of course, what this means for the people on the other side. Neither I nor my colleagues from Mariupol, Kramatorsk, Volnovakha have any doubt that Pravy Sektor will be guarding them (the camps – ed.). I have family in Donetsk and Makeyevka. I was born there, I grew up there, my mother was buried there. Then, when it all started, I went to serve in Ukraine. It’s incomprehensible. What Russian occupation of Donbass can there be when such orders are given? This is a very large-scale campaign, which involves not only our structure (the Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior – ed.), But I know for sure that the SBU is also working on this project and in a very intensive way . But they have slightly different tasks,” said the witness.
According to the witness, all men between the ages of 15 and 65 and all suspicious women will be subjected to “filtration measures”. A special unit of the National Guard (which I recall is mostly made up of ultra-nationalist units or even neo-Nazis) will be in charge of guarding the outer perimeter of these camps, while Pravy Sektor will be in charge of maintaining the order inside.
“We are already preparing for it very actively. In our department, the operators tables are already full of personal files of local separatists (people living on the Ukrainian side supporting the Donbass People’s Republics – ed.). Last time it was the same. The so-called preventive cleansing is planned among the local population. So far, I only know that these measures are being prepared in Starobelsk, Lissichansk, Artemovsk and Severodonetsk,” said the witness.
Clearly, the already fierce repression by the SBU — adding triage camps to the plethoric arsenal of secret prisons and torture whose Ukrainian security services have been using and abusing for four years — will intensify against those who challenge the Ukrainian authorities put in place in the coup d’état of 2014.” Quote
Information such as this pointing to an early resumption of the conflict has been multiplying for several days, between heavy weapons out of storage areas, law on the reintegration of Donbass sent for signature to Poroshenko, and now these camps for triage filtration.
It is time for the international community to open its eyes, before a new bloodbath takes place in the Donbass by the fault of Kiev.” Quote
This is The One-World/New Age Movement, En Route to Global Occupation .
What a great, clear, concise and succinct article.
I would like to draw out one point that you failed to elaborate on, and I feel that you might agree that there is a potential wildcard factor in it:
Not even on your list of players, yet having a major shared border, and other socially-binding shared experiences, i.e. an illicit war perpetrated against them, by fake justification, by the (at that time) only world superpower, for an illegal racial (myth) hatred based ideological occupying political entity, you-know-who.
Iraqis have justifiably very, very negative ‘scars’ on their collective psychis about this epoque, and one could well-imagine the almost certainty of a viral insurgency against the foreign hegemons and their vassal actors; these days one is not at all certain where the heart of the hegemon is and which actor(s) the vassal(s).
If you buy the point about a pending insurgency in Iraq, how would such an event impact the current situation in Syria/Middle East?
I suggest it would be large, but very difficult to gauge, depending upon how it was played out.
Yet, it would be a huge factor in the play-out.
Perhaps you could append a short addendum?!
Love the article, thank you again, and to mods (love the mods).
Eeerrr…confirmation of how much usa has been spending in Syria…..
The situation in the Middle East is a little bit more complex than presented in this article. To state that Saudi Arabia and Qatar have already played their role and walked away as losers is misleading. It’s true for Saudi Arabia, and not true for Qatar. Yes, the US created ISIS while Saudi Arabia and Qatar financed it. However, after Russia intervened, the situation changed. Qatar turned to Iran, and consented to building a gas pipeline to Iran. Qatari gas was originally intended for Europe, one of the reasons why Assad had to be removed. As for Saudi Arabia, it foolishly spent billions on ISIS in Syria and fighting that war in Yemen. It failed on both counts, finding itself in financial difficulties, which no doubt surprised many. The point is that Saudi Arabia has 80 % less oil than it presents in it’s official Government reports. It has been drilling for oil for more than 70 years, and it’s reserves are depleted. Yes, it has discovered some new oil fields, but they have limited amounts of oil. Because of this, it attacked Yemen, with Western backing, hoping to grab Yemeni oil. It failed.
Saudi Arabia is slowly becoming a crisis point. Not only are 80 % of it’s stated oil reserves depleted, it is facing dissolution as a country. Last year Trump visited the country, where he ostensibly signed a multi billion dollar arms deal. It would appear he signed a deal by which Saudi Arabia would purchase second hand American weapons, intended for ISIS. Trump flies away and a short time later King Salman flies to Moscow ? Why ? Is Saudi Arabia getting cool about using the US dollar any more ? Is it perhaps turning towards the East, towards Russia and China and the Silk Road ? Time will tell. If so, it’s perhaps too late.
Some commentators have speculated that Iran would be attacked by a coalition of the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel. If this is indeed the plan, then its not wise. The Saudi military is useless, being basically nothing more than the Saudi version of the Praetorian Guard, used for protecting the Saudi royal family. Prince Salman has stated that he intends to introduce a modernization plan, by which Saudi Arabia would be industrialized by 2030. Too late. That should have begun decades ago, and not now, when the Saudi elite wasted billions on luxury and other things. The reduced oil reserves will eventually lead to reduced profits. Once profits fall, the country is on the road to dissolution. The population has risen and so has dissatisfaction with the distribution of wealth. Expectations will not be met. The country itself is held together by means of payoff’s. The sheiks who hold their fiefs are payed of by the Saudi royal family. When the money runs out, so will the loyalty of the sheiks. When you combine social dissatisfaction with lack of loyalty, then the country breaks up. Should a war be launched against Iran, then it might break up even faster, as it would be the chief target of an Iranian counter attack.
The situation in the Middle East is changing. Israel is slowly losing the support of its only semi-reliable ally, Saudi Arabia, whose future is questionable. The influence of Iran is rising, as so is that of Russia. The US is entrenched in northern Syria, in a difficult tactical position. I don’t see it staying there too long. The chief question which will be answered in 2018 is which country the US intends to attack first, North Korea or Iran. The US would be wise not to attack either, as the repercussions would be tremendous.
Interesting points about Saudi Arabia. I would subscribe your thoughts, just let me add two things.
-The water aquifers of Saudi Arabia are salinating. Desalination is very, very expensive.
-The actual oil reserves of Saudi Arabia are ‘classified’. However, sometimes people talk too much. Already in 2006 there were rumors from the inside that the Ghadar oil field is over its peak.
Saudi Arabia has one very large oil field (Ghadar), and many much smaller. Saudi oil exports consist of rougly 2/3 of Ghadar oil, so do the math. Ghadar is geologically quite complex, and pressurized seawater is used to pump the oil out.
Already for years it is known in the refinery world, that the water cut of Saudi oil is steadily rising. This means it takes more and more effort to get the oil out. In fact, roughly 30% of an average oil well stays unused due to rising efforts to get the last oil out.
It wouldn’t surprise me that MBS will be the last Saudi king. Though he is younger than Kim Jong-Un.
One point I would make is that, as pointed out by Michael Hudson, the Saudi government remains bound by the terms US-Saudi agreements of the 1970s. At that time, the Saudi State became a protectorate of the US government. However, if the Saudis begin to sell oil for other currencies than the US dollar, they will be in violation. In that case, as per agreement, military intervention and regime change will occur and the monarchy will be terminated. So the Saudis cannot sell oil for other currencies or otherwise turn away from their current obligations. True, the Saudis could attempt to appeal to third parties such as President Putin for support in circumventing their obligations. However, Russia would then be required to assume the role of protector and would be in clear and open conflict with US interests. If that is what the Saudis were suggesting to the RF leadership it would have been extremely unwise for President Putin to agree to this.
“True, the Saudis could attempt to appeal to third parties such as President Putin for support in circumventing their obligations. However, Russia would then be required to assume the role of protector”
Why should Russia ever help that evil country, which is even now genociding the people of Yemen?
It’s best if Saudi Arabia perishes – all they do is fund terrorism.
“It’s best if Saudi Arabia perishes – all they do is fund terrorism.”
One could say the same thing about israel, as well.
Not to quibble but they use other people’s money.
They are not known for their largess…..
The Chinese and Saudis are already negotiating. China will buy Saudi oil, but pay for it in yuans. The Saudis are prepared to agree. The Chinese are not really desperate to buy Saudi oil, as Russia has been the chief oil producer since 2005, something the Western media likes to conceal. The point is that in 1971 Nixon signed that deal with the Saudis, where oil will be sold in US dollars. China wants to destroy that deal, as the petro-yuan is on the way to be introduced. No doubt Washington is going to be furious. It’s going to be interesting to see if it can prevent this.
Anyway of checking this by our experts???????
I read that. Highly unconvincing. They are quoting statements made on social media. To me this sounds like disinformation right before Russia’s presidential elections, and attempt to make Putin less popular. It won’t work.
yup that had crossed my mind too cheers……….
MOSCOW, February 11. /TASS/. Syrian settlement problems in light of the results of the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi were in focus of a telephone conversation between Russian and Turkish Foreign Ministers, Sergey Lavrov and Mevlut Cavusoglu, the Russian foreign ministry said on Sunday.
“The two ministers also discussed issues of the Syrian settlement in the Astana format on the basis of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254 and in light of the results of the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi on January 30,” the ministry said.
Names emerge of Russian mercenaries killed in US strikes in Syria Names emerge of Russian mercenaries killed in US strikes in Syria published on 2/12/2018
” If Obama took a single and somber decision for which he will be positively remembered once all the dust has settled, it will have to be his decision not to attack Syria in early September 2013.”
Wrong. He forgets that Obama *twice* – once in fall, 2015 and again in 2016, considered imposing a “no-fly zone” (read: war on Syria). Just like in 2013, when Putin outmaneuvered him by getting Assad to get rid of Syria’s chemical weapons, Russia forced Obama to back down first by intervening in Syria directly, and then directly telling the US that anyone who attacked the SAA would be shot down.
The idea that Israel will not launch a new war against Lebanon is wishful thinking. The fact that Hizballah has the ability to drop 1,600 missiles a day on Israel – the very thing Israel fears in the event of a war with Iran – will not stop Israel from trying to get the US and NATO on board for the attack – and likely extending the war into Syria.
The reason is that Israel wants the US to take out Iran and this cannot happen until Hizballah (and Syria) have their military abilities to be effective actors in an Iran war degraded. If Israel cannot do it alone, it will rope in the US and NATO. Trump is likely to be fully on board if he can be sold that it is the opening guns against Iran.
How long this will take to accomplish is difficult to predict – it could be as soon as this summer (depending on whether the US starts an insane war with North Korea) or it could be several years from now. But Israel’s goal has not changed and it will continue to try to find a way to destroy Hizballah and Syria’s military capability.
Yes… It is hard to believe that this entity called israel ever wanted peace – it has always wanted land; the more the better. The US has given to it the means to build an empire… According to this article, it is obvious that israel’s greed is the source of all the problems in the ME… Let’s hope that Russia succeeds with her peace plan.
The USA and its allies strategy is to spread Chaos around the world, because Chaos and its fog of constant conflict always benefits the pirate type mechanism of their Empire. On the other hand Russia with its huge borders, various ethnic groups and a landmass at the heart of Eurasia will be naturally inclined to support stability and the ending of Chaos. Russian people do not like chaos. Compare how manic the Anglo and Latin people are to the Russians. After the tragic loss of the Saratov airliner the relatives in the waiting room were sat quiet and calm, in any other place the families would be hysterical and taking out their anger on staff.
Not just in Syria but in Korea , Russia will play a key role in ending the crisis. A Unified Korea would be an key ally of Russia and China, using Russian energy and Chinese trade to make itself the fourth biggest economy within a decade. The world is being divided into three groups between the core ultra imperialist group of USA, Israel, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, Poland and Ukraine, who all would support an attack on Russia/China, the more moderate pro EU type westerners like south europe, India and also latin america, and Allies of Russia, China and Iran which include most of the so called Third World. ‘Third Worlders’ are sick of imperialism in all its forms, including the new ‘friendly anglo’ ones such as charities like Oxfam who sexually abused local women in the countries they are supposed to be helping.
Turkey is the hardest country to classify geopolitically and each move it makes could tip the balance of global power. Despite the USA backing Gulen and the Kurd forces, pro Western views are still commonplace in urban Turkish circles. If they want Stability, they will have to back the Eurasian side. Since 2014, Russia has been the most geopolitically important country after it regained Crimea and its enemies could do not a thing to stop it except sanctions that ended up stimulating the internal industry in Russia! We already live in the Eurasian era.
Israel is the major player in supporting the war of Syria.. It’s been supporting ISIS from the get-go.
For Israel is very important that the West should not destroy ISIS because a useful weapon against
Syria Iran, and Hezbollah.
A history of Israeli military aggression against Syria
Syrian forces Israeli Defense Forces: you ain’t seen nothing yet
A big mistake is not include the colonialist powers as France and England, this last have created and financed the white helmets, the red cross of the terrorists.
Vanessa Beeley – The Empire’s “White Helmet” Global Franchise
Thank you for this concise report. Reading about the situation in Syria can make one’s head spin. This information at least allows me to wrap my head around it a little better. Moon of Alabama is on the money too…
“It wouldn’t be surprising to say that the post-Kissinger USA has left Israel feeling secure and privileged to the extent that it was able to coerce the world’s single superpower to rubber-stamp what suited it; even if it was against the interests of that superpower.”
A little infiltration into the halls of power goes a long way. A lot of infiltration into the halls of power goes all the way. Once zionazia is history, it will be very interesting to see how they took over the fascists running pindoland.
“However, with all the support America gave Israel, Israel was not able to find peace, real lasting peace.”
The israelis are not interested in peace, have never been interested in peace, they are interested in total power. Locally, through “greater israel”, globally, single polar enforced through “full spectrum dominance”.
As long as israel, and the toxin known politely as zionism exist, there will be no peace.
Solid insightful summary. Solid point of view and unemotional lanquage of realpolitik. The Saker group is quite remarkable although I sometimes strongly disagree. Here I think you nailed it!
Tensions have been running high in the Middle East since the Israeli military intercepted an Iranian drone launched from Syrian territory, and Tel Aviv “enjoyed” the right to self-defense, launching an attack on “Iranian targets” in Syria, prompting reprisal strikes from Syrian air defense systems.
In the wake of the worst military crisis between the Middle Eastern countries since the 1982 Lebanon war, Michael Oren, Benjamin Netanyahu’s deputy minister for public diplomacy, said that he believed that Israel was more counting on Russia than the United States, with President Trump watching from the sidelines.
“The American part of the equation is to back us up, but the US currently has almost no leverage on the ground. America did not ante up in Syria. It’s not in the game. The expectations are that the Russians will stop it because I don’t think anyone is interested right now in a war,” Bloomberg cited him as saying.”https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201802121061569596-russia-curb-israel-syria-crisis/
Syriana Analysis on Youtube. This guy is doing good work all on his own. Here he analyses the shooting down of the Israeli plane, commentary begins at the 50 second mark.
Interestng article for vt and ub1 to respond too??????
And anyone else of course…have a nice day.
I always wonder why sites like southfront make readers use the Hegemon’s spies like Facebook and Google+ if the reader wishes to comment below the posted article.
mod-to note: Please re post in “The Moveable Cafe”
Roberts starts out ok, describing pindo servitude to zionazis, but then started rehashing the now old canards about Russia acting too weak, being sold out, being naive, inept, etc. for not engaging in the sort of responses zionazia is trying to initiate with their cowardly nonstop provocations. His arguments have been done to death here and Saker, and many commenters here, have written much showing how these arguments Roberts presented are not in Russia’s interests. Nor the rest of the world’s interests, by default now. I’ve come to the conclusion they are made with the intent of delegitimizing Russia and Russian action.
Roberts is an Anglo. They have a certain mentality even if they are on the ‘pro russia’ side. Anglo people, naturally tending towards insecurity, will always look for war and conflict. The moderate west
like Germans and French etc are sick of anglo mentality. Trumpist, Democratic, Tory etc. the anglo mentality varies litte.
all of the above is nice, even mostly accurate, and well worth the read; but don’t you think it leaves out the real players in the middle east quandary? The oil companies? I only know of a few, and my knowledge of the economic interest in the out of the Syrian situation has been replaced by the propaganda that somehow it is the nation states that hate each other enough to go to war. I don’t believe that.
Seems to me the analysis must include how do players who expect to make trillions from Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and the like feel about the outcome in Syria. listed below are the possible players I can think of but i am sure i do not know many of them and some on my list might not be involved or have a significant interest? None the less think about it.
Russia: Novatek, Roosenfelt
Britain: British Petroleum
Strategic oil reserves in Syria
Recent Lebanon Island #9 oil contract leaving Israel out in the cold and
Frac produced LNG trying to deny middle east oil access to markets in order to develop a market for frac produced LNG transported to Europe. Its not the governments, not the militarises, not the religious groups, not the racial difference, not even the sovereign interest of the people but instead I think it is the behind the scenes economic interest that will determine the scope, intensity and outcome of this war.
The usually reliable Debka is reporting high Russian casualties (albeit contractors) at the hands of American forces yesterday.
Canthama Retweeted Brasco_Aad
Excellent thread by @Brasco_Aad
I totally agree with him and add the failed drone attack into RuAF airbase and Su25 downing, all connected events. All the dots lead to the Russian election, and retaliation will come after that,and Russia always does it asymmetrically IMO.
Reports are emerging that the Israeli attack on Russian soldiers at T4 Airbase in Homs, Syria and the US attack on Russian PMC in Deir Ezzor were actually coordinated. This was not about Syria, or Iran, but all about Russia.
“The usually reliable Debka”??? Readers here are more informed that to believe that lie.
This is a secular analysis while the Talmudists and Kabbalists running the world are not atheists, and they play primarily accordingly to that affiliation and End Game while geopolitics primarily function as a veil of the spiritual while having secondary gains – natural resources, strategic, etc.
Tel Aviv has never had peace as a goal and the Oded Yinon Plan is just one example of one of their geopolitical aims. Defence minister Lieberman has decided to create a strategic missile force:
Photo: Nahum Segel
Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman
Photo: Nahum Segel
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Introducing the IDF’s new ‘missile corps’
After a long-standing debate and objections from senior General Staff members, Defense Minister Lieberman has decided—in full agreement with Chief of Staff Eisenkot—to build a surface-to-surface missile arsenal in the Ground Forces; within two years, Israel Military Industries will supply missiles with a range of 150 kilometers and the ability to destroy any target within five minutes, which will later be joined by missiles covering all of Lebanon and reaching deep into Syria as well.
Alex Fishman|Published: 02.09.18 , 23:33
The die was cast on January 4, 2018, in the defense minister’s bureau at the Kirya Base in Tel Aviv. In a discussion that lasted no more than an hour, Minister Avigdor Lieberman decided to build a missile arsenal within the Ground Forces. A “missile corps,” if you like.
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This dramatic decision, which is being revealed for the first time, contains the seeds of the next revolution in the IDF’s combat doctrine. The plan is to build an effective medium-range surface-to-surface missile arsenal as part of the IDF’s current work plan, which ends in 2020. And before anyone could change their mind, the defense minister rushed to allocate about NIS 500 million (roughly $145 million) for the project—as a first course—from the defense budget.
For decades, defense establishment officials have been arguing about the need for a military arm to activate surface-to-surface missiles to a range of 150-300 kilometers. The debate has gotten very heated, particularly in light of the “threat” to the Israel Air Force’s monopoly as a long-range strategic arm.
The Predator Hawk missile. A range of 300 kilometers and more (Photo: Israel Military Industries)
The Predator Hawk missile. A range of 300 kilometers and more (Photo: Israel Military Industries)
During the discussion in the defense minister’s bureau in early January, there were some senior IDF General Staff members around the table who didn’t like the idea. Lieberman, in full agreement with Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, decided to end the long-standing debate and to adopt a plan prepared by the Planning Directorate in the past six months.
According to the plan, the first stage would include the creation of an arsenal of surface-to-surface missiles with a 150-kilometer range, which would be operated by the Ground Forces. The army would use an existing product: Missiles of the EXTRA model, which the Israel Military Industries (IMI) company manufactures for foreign armies.
At the same time, the Navy’s warships—Sa’ar 5-class corvette and Sa’ar 6-class corvette—would be armed with these missiles and become part of the IDF’s strategic arm. According to the work plan, the missiles would be adapted by IMI for the Air Force too. In more advanced stages of the plan, missiles with a range of 300 kilometers and more would be introduced into the arsenal as well.
The final price tag remains unclear. It could reach about NIS 7 billion over a decade—depending on the number of missiles the IDF will arm itself with. This is also the plan’s weak spot: If there are not enough missiles to wage a long battle, this will hardly be a revolution.
1,000 precision-guided missiles
Lieberman came up with idea to establish a strategic arm in the Ground Forces way before entering the Defense Ministry. In 2004, as an ordinary Knesset member, he wrote a book called “My Truth,” in which he explained the need for such an arm. Over the years, he repeated the idea as a member of the Political-Security Cabinet and as chairman of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Now, he has the ability to implement it.
But in 2004, when Lieberman wrote his book, there was no operative need for a missile arsenal in the Ground Forces. Furthermore, the technology—which turned cheap rockets with a statistical destruction ability into accurate missiles—had yet to mature. The enemy was different, and the Air Force could provide a fully response to the remote targets.
The dramatic change in the Israeli military perception took place about five years ago, as a result of global technological developments, when Western countries lost their monopoly over precision-guided arms.
Five years ago, Iran succeeded in developing a flight correction and navigation kit, which is applied to “dumb” Iranian-made rockets and turns them into precision-guided missiles. This raised concerns in the Israeli defense establishment that Iran would turn the dumb rockets in Lebanon into precision-guided missiles. And sure enough, instead of transporting missiles to Lebanon through Syria, Iran is preparing to assemble navigation kits on the dumb rockets that are already in Lebanon. This does not require any huge factories.
Defense Minister Lieberman (R) and IDF chief Eisenkot (Photo: Ariel Hermoni/Ministry of Defense)
Defense Minister Lieberman (R) and IDF chief Eisenkot (Photo: Ariel Hermoni/Ministry of Defense)
Israeli officials believe that within a decade there will be more than 1,000 precision-guided missiles in Lebanon. Each of them, if launched, will accurately hit its target or miss it by just a few meters. This could cause enormous damage to the IDF’s intelligence and control systems and to IAF bases, and in fact to all the systems supporting the army’s quick response abilities, not to mention the damage to national infrastrctures: Electricity, water, government symbols like the Knesset, the government, the Kirya Base, etc. Even if we assume that the Iron Dome system is capable of intercepting 90 percent of these missiles, there will still be about 100 accurate missiles left that could hit vital targets and inflict, alongside the destruction, heavy damage to morale.
We are entering a new era in which Hezbollah possesses precision-guided rockets covering most of Israel’s territory, and this is what prompted the prime minister, the defense minister, the chief of staff and the IDF spokesperson to take every opportunity to threaten Lebanon with war in recent days.
Up until a few years ago, we were able to say: The Air Force is purchasing planes as it is; each of them can carry 24 guided bombs with a much heavier warhead than the warheads of the relatively expensive surface missiles; the air bases exist; the teams exist; the IAF is capable of destroying thousands of targets in one day, and has intelligence gathering abilities for those targets. So who needs a missile arm in the Ground Forces? It would be the wrong thing to do financially as well.
But that has all changed. The huge improvement in anti-aircraft weapons, some of which are already in Syria, along with the enemy’s large amount of precision-guided missiles, require the army to divide the tools at its disposal between the IAF, the Ground Forces and the Navy.
While continuous accurate missile fire on Israel’s air bases won’t paralyze the Air Force, which is prepared to deal with such a scenario, the IAF’s effectiveness is also measured through its ability to produce a series of sorties. It’s very likely that the IAF’s functional continuity will suffer in certain timeframes. In such an event, the cheap bomb on the plane’s wing becomes quite irrelevant.
“One system can carry out five barrages in one hour, with eight missiles per barrage—in other words, 40 missiles an hour. Multiply that by 10 launchers, and you’ll have more than 400 missiles fired at Beirut every hour. The precision level of these missiles is just a few meters. An EXTRA missile fired from the Golani Interchange, for example, could destroy a certain floor in a Beirut building—even before the planes take off. This type of punishment could create deterrence. ”
“Nevertheless, the AccuLar-122 purchase, as well as the purchase of trajectory correction rockets, was seen as an addition of an accurate fire-delivering force to the artillery rather than as part of a strategic surface-to-surface missile arm which would operate alongside the Air Force and serve as an “insurance policy” in case the aerial activity sequence was cut off, even briefly. The number of rockets that were purchased also matched the perception of merely an additional accurate fire-delivering force. ”
Obviously, the Syrian response shows the IAF has been cut off for the next two years until those 150km and 300km range missiles will be deployed. With them Tel Aviv can again get away with their punishments.