Dear friends, Christ is born! Glorify Him!
The magnitude of the crisis in Kazakhstan has surprised many, including myself. Some compared what happened to the Euromaidan in Kiev, but that is a very bad comparison, if only because the Euromaidan happened on one square of one city whereas the violent insurrection (because that is what it was!) in Kazakhstan began in the western regions but quickly spread to the entire country (which is huge). Just by the sheer magnitude of the insurrection (about 20’000 well organized and trained combatants all over the country) and its extreme violence (cops had their heads cut off!), it was pretty obvious that this was not something spontaneous, but something carefully prepared, organized and then executed. The way the insurgents immediately attacked all TV stations and airports, while bigger mobs were trashing the streets and looting stores, shows a degree of sophistication Ed Luttwak would have approved of!
To me, this is much more similar to what happened in Syria in the cities of Daraa, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Damascus, and many more.
I will admit that my initial reaction also was “wow, how could the Kazakh and Russian intelligence services miss all the indicators and warnings that such a huge insurrection was carefully prepared and about to explode?”. Then came the news that President Tokaev appealed to The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which up until now was a rather flaccid organization and that very same evening Russia began an air bridge to move forces to Kazakhstan, including the subunits of the 45th Guards Separate Special Forces Brigade, 98th Guards Airborne Division and 31st Guards Airborne Assault Brigade. Russian military transporters also airlifted small contingents of Armenian, Kyrgyz, Tadjik special forces. Most interestingly, the Belarusians also sent one reinforced company from their elite 103rd Separate Guards Airborne Brigade (that is the famous Vitebsk Airborne Division, one of the best Soviet Airborne Divisions). Considering the current tensions with the West over the Ukraine, the speed with which these forces were sent to Kazakhstan indicated to me that this was clearly a prepared move.
In other words, at least the Russians had advanced warning and were fully prepared. If so, I doubt they said anything to their colleagues from the CSTO, with the possible (likely?) exception of the Belarusians.
Okay, so let’s explore the implications of the above.
If the Russians knew, why did they do nothing at all to prevent what just happened?
Here we first need to revisit what recently happened in Belarus.
President Lukashenko had pretty much the same foreign policy as President Tokaev: something they call a “multi-vector” foreign policy which I would summarize as follows: pump all the aid and money from Russia, while suppressing pro-Russian forces inside your own country and try to show the AngloZionist Empire that we can be bought, just for the right price of course (this is also what Vucic is doing in Serbia right now). Now let’s recall what happened in Belarus.
The Empire and its vassal states in the EU tried to overthrow Lukashenko who had no other choice than to turn to Russia for help and survival. Russia, of course, did oblige, but only in exchange for Lukashenko’s “good behavior” and comprehensive abandonment of his “multi-vector” foreign policy. Lukashenko prevailed, the opposition was crushed, and Russia and Belarus have already taken major further steps towards their integration.
Now I know that there are those out there who love to accuse Putin (personally) that he “showed weakness”, “let the US and NATO blow up countries on the Russian periphery”, etc. etc. etc. To those inclined to this, I ask a simple question: compare the Belarus before the insurrection and after. Specifically, from the Russian point of view, was the multi-vectoring Belarus preferable to the fully aligned Belarus of today or not? The answer, I submit, is absolutely obvious.
Now let’s look at Kazakhstan. Potentially, this is a much more dangerous country for Russia than Belarus: it has a huge border (7’600km, open and undefended as Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Community!), a strong pan-Turkic underground (supported by Turkey), an equally strong Takfiri underground (supported by various non-state and even state actors in the region), ethnic tensions between the Kazakhs and the Russian minority and very important security ties to Russia. To have the Empire take over Belarus would have been very bad indeed, but the Empire taking over Kazakhstan would have been even much worse.
Yet, as a direct (and, I submit, predictable) consequence of the insurrection, Tokaev now knows that his fate depends on Russia, just like Lukashenko’s. Is that a bad or a good outcome for the Kremlin?
I will toss in another name here: Armenia’s Pashinian, who was a notorious russophobe until the Azeris attacked at which point he had no other choice but to turn to Russia for help and, frankly, survival. That is also true of Erdogan, but he is an ungrateful SOB who can’t ever be trusted, not even for minor matters.
Now remember all those dummies who were screaming urbi et orbi that the CSTO is useless, that the Russians just let the Azeris beat the crap of Armenia and could do nothing about it? As soon as Russia got involved, the war stopped and the “invincible” Bayraktars stopped flying. Is that a good or bad outcome for Russia?
And now, oh sweet irony, the self-same Pashinian happens to be the formal head of the CSTO (more like Stoltenberg really, a official mouthpiece with no real authority) and he had to “order” (announce, really) the CSTO operation into Kazakhstan.
So we have Lukashenko, Pashinian and now Tokaev all ex-multi-vector politicians begging Russia for help and getting that help, but at the obvious political price of ditching their former multi-vector policies.
I don’t know about you, but for me this is a triumph for Russia: without any military intervention or “invasion” (what the TV watching infantiles in the West scare themselves with at night), Putin “cracked” three notorious multi-vectorists and got them to be nice, loyal and very grateful (!) partners for Russia. By the way, Russia also has a very deep “penetration” into all the other “stans” whose leaders are not stupid and who, unlike the western journos and “experts” all read the writing on the wall. The impact of what just took place in Kazakhstan will reverberate all over Central Asia.
About the CSTO operation itself. First, the Russian and Belarusian forces (about 3’000 Russians and 500 Belarusians): they are truly elite, top of the line, battle hardened, professional, highly trained and superbly equipped forces (the other smaller contingents are more for “PR decoration” than for anything else). Officially, their mission is only to protect key official (Kazakh and Russian) facilities but these forces would be more than enough to make minced meat of out any western or Turkish trained Takfiris or nationalists, even if their numbers are much higher than the 20’000 estimate. And, in the worst case, these forces happen to be in control of key airports where Russians (and Belarusians) could send in even more forces, including at least two Russian airborne divisions. That would be a force nothing in Central Asia can even dream of taking on. I should also mention that Russia has a large and strategically crucial military base in Tadjikistan which has trained to fight against Takfiri terrorists and insurgents for decades now and which could also support any Russian military operation in Central Asia.
So the objective of these forces are:
- To free up Kazakh security and military forces to put down the uprising (which they are doing)
- To send a political message to the Kazakh security forces: we got your back, no worries, do your job.
- To send a political message to the insurgents: you will either lay down arms, flee abroad or die (which is what Putin ordered in both Chechnia and Syria, so these are not empty threats at all).
- To send a political message to the US and Turkey: Tokaev is our guy now, you lost him and this country!
- To send a political message to the entire Central Asia and Caucasus: if Russia has your back, you will stay in power even if the idiots at CIA/NED/etc. try to color-revolutionize you.
- To send yet another message to folks like Erdogan or Vucic – all that multi-vectorness will end up very badly for you, use your head before it is too late (for you, not for us – we are fine either way!).
Some have suggested that the timing of the insurrection Kazakhstan was some kind of attempt by US/NATO to “hurt” Russia in her “weak underbelly” and to show Russia that she has to back down from her ultimatum to the West (negotiations are supposed to start tomorrow, in an atmosphere of general pessimism). Well, I don’t have any info out of Langley or Mons, but if that was the US plan, then this entire project not only collapsed, but has backfired very very badly indeed.
Remember, the PSYOP narrative was that Putin is either stupid, or weak or sold out to the West, yet when we look at the “before and after” thingie, we see that while the West “almost” (or so they think) “got” Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan and, now, Kazakhstan, the reality is that in each case it appears that the narcissistic megalomaniacs running the West have confidently waltzed into a carefully laid Russian trap which, far from giving the Empire the control of the countries it “almost” acquired, made them lose them for the foreseeable future.
Can you imagine the level of impotent rage and frustration in Langley and Mons when they watch that kind of footage: oy veh!!
Oh sure, the AngloZionist propaganda machine and the clueless trolls (paid or not) who parrot that nonsense won’t say a word about all this, but just use your own common sense, use the “before and after” thing, and reach your own conclusions.
Speaking of conclusions: how about all those who bitched about the CSTO being a toothless wannabe copy of NATO which can get nothing done? You still find it so toothless now?
How does it compare to NATO, no, not on paper, but in terms of combat operations capability?
The West wanted to turn Kazakhstan into a “Russian Afghanistan” (same plan for the Ukraine, by the way). Turkey wanted to turn Kazakhstan into a Turkish-run vassal state. The Takfiris wanted to turn Kazakhstan into some kind of Emirate.
In your opinion, how do you evaluate the effectiveness of a collective security treaty which could foil all of these plans with only a brigade-sized force and in just a few days?
One more thing: there is something else which Kazakhstan and Syria have in common: there were A LOT of CIA/MI6/Mossad/etc agents around Assad, this became quite clear by the number of high-level Syrian officials who either backed the insurrection, or even led it. Most later fled to the West, some were killed. But the point is that the “apple” of the power structure in Syria was quite rotten. The same can be said for Kazakhstan where a huge purge is taking place, with the highly influential head of the security services (and former Prime Minister!) not only demoted, but arrested for treason!
So in plain English, the SVR/FSB/GRU will now have a free hand to “clean house” the same way the Russians “cleaned house” around Lukashenko and Assad (in this case with Iranian help): quietly and very effectively,
Again, I can hear the hysterical and desperate wailing out of Langley and Mons. That’s what you get for believing your own stupid propaganda!
As for those who bought that silly “Putin losing countries all over the former Soviet Union space” PSYOP narrative, they probably feel quite stupid right now, but won’t ever admit it. Speaking of stupid,
No, Putin is NOT, repeat, NOT trying to “re-create” the Soviet Union.
And while that mediocre non-entity Blinken warns about how the Russians are “hard to get out once they come in” (coming from a US Secretary of State this is both quite hilarious and a new, even higher, level of absolute hypocrisy!), the truth is that most CSTO forces will leave pretty soon, if only because there will be no need to keep them in Kazakhstan. Why? Simple: the hardcore trained terrorists and insurgents will soon be dead, the looting rioters will get off the streets and hope that they don’t get a visit from the Kazakh NSC (National Security Committee) or cops, the traitors in power will either leave the country for the EU or be jailed and the Kazakh security and military forces will regain control of the country and maintain law and order.
Why would the Russian paratroopers and special forces need to stay?
Furthermore, Russia has no need, or desire, to invade or, even less so, administer poor, mostly dysfunctional countries, with major social problems and very little actual benefits to offer Russia. And now that Lukashenko, Pashinian, and Tokaev know that they serve at the pleasure of the Kremlin, you can rest assured that they will generally “behave”. Oh sure, they will remain mostly corrupt states, with nepotism, tribal affiliation, and religious extremism all brewing at some level, but as long as they represent no threat to a) the Russian minority in these states and 2) to Russian national security interests, the Kremlin will not micro-manage them. But at the first sign of a resurgence of “multi-vectoriality” (possibly inspired by the many western corporations working in Kazakhstan) the chairs upon which these leaders currently sit will immediately begin shaking pretty badly and they will know whom to call to stop this.
Speaking of weak “idiots” who “lost” countries to the Empire, does anybody care to make a list of countries the Empire has ACTUALLY snatched away from Russia (or any other adversary) and succeeded in keeping? Syria? Libya? Afghanistan? Iraq maybe? Yemen? And that is after the “Mission Accomplished” declaration by a “triumphant” US President :-)
Okay, the three Baltic statelets. Bravo! Captain America won another Grenada!
Ah, I can hear the voices chanting “the Ukraine! What about the Ukraine!?”. Well, what about the Ukraine?
There is a Russian saying (цыплят по осени считают) which can be roughly translated as “do not count your chickens before they are hatched“. Right now, NOBODY can confidently predict what will happen with the Ukraine further down the road. Not only has the Ukraine become a country 404 deindustrialized shithole, it now is run by an entire class (in the Marxist sense) of Nazis whom, apparently, nobody has the will or the ability to de-Nazify (Russia could, but has exactly zero motive to do so, as for the US/NATO, LOL!!). Even if Russia and the US agree to some kind of neutral status for the Ukraine, this will not remove a single Nazi from power and, if anything will create the conditions for an even bigger breakup of the country (which is what I think will eventually happen anyway, but very slowly and very very painfully).
The one thing which the Ukraine does have in common with Kazakhstan is that these are both invented countries created by the rabidly Russophobic Bolsheviks: not only are their current borders meaningless (and I mean totally completely meaningless), but these borders bring under one totally artificial political “roof” completely different regions and ethnic groups. The big difference is, of course, that the Ukie leaders, all of them, were, and still are, infinitely worse than either Nazarbaev or Tokaev ever were. Also, Ukie nationalism is the most hate-filled and demented on the planet, they can only be compared with the Hutu Interahamwe in Rwanda. Yes, there is definitely a nationalist streak in the Kazakh society (lovingly nourished and fed by the West for decades), but in comparison with the Ukronazis, these are soft-spoken and mostly mentally sane humanitarians. In my personal, and therefore admittedly subjective, experience, Kazakhs and Russians get along much better than Ukrainians and Russians.
Last, but not least, it will take decades to de-Nazify the Ukraine, and God only knows who will be willing and capable of doing that (certainly NOT Russia!) whereas Kazakhstan’s insurgents are already being killed, in large numbers (several thousand by some accounts), by Kazakh security forces. As for the Kazakh oligarchs and officials who assisted them, they are either dead or in jail or already abroad.
Did I mention China? It is a very important actor in Kazakhstan. On one level, China and Russia are economic and even political competitors in Kazakhstan, however China absolutely and categorically cannot allow Kazakhstan to be taken over by either the US/NATO, or the Takfiris or the pan-Turkists. The Chinese have not flexed their military muscle (yet), but they could, and you can be rest assured that they will flex with (immense) economic muscle to prevent such an outcome. So while the poor Ukraine has Poland as a neighbor, Kazakhstan has both Russia and China which are absolutely determined not to allow any hostile force (anti-Chinese or anti-Russian, these are the same forces) to color-revolutionize Kazakhstan and turn it into the kind of nightmarish shithole the Empire turned so many countries into, from the US-occupied EU to the Nazi-occupied Ukraine (before eventually losing them anyway!).
The bottom line about the Ukraine is this: let’s wait and see what kind of chickens the Ukie eggs will hatch in time and whether the eventual outcome will be worse or better for Russia. And, by “outcome” I do not refer to the roaring statements coming from western politicians and the talking heads on the idiot box, I mean actual outcomes, which in such matters can take months or even years before becoming fully apparent. (I know, those dead set on the “Putin is weak” thing will ignore my advice or any facts or logic, I am mostly addressing these suggestions to those who hear that narrative and want to figure out for themselves whether it is true or false).
What just happened in Kazakhstan was both a US-triggered full-scale insurrection AND an attempted coup. There is overwhelming evidence that the Russians were aware of what was coming and allowed the chaos to get just bad enough to give only one possible option to Tokaev: to appeal for a CSTO intervention. The extreme swiftness of the Russian military operation took everybody by surprise and none of the parties involved in that insurrection+coup (the US, the Takfiris and the Turks) had any time to react to prevent the quick deployment of (extremely) combat-capable forces which then made it possible for the Kazakh military and security forces to regroup and go on the offensive. Having Pashinian “order” this CSTO operation was beautiful, karmic, cherry on the cake :-)
All in all, this is just the latest in a series of cataclysmic failures of the leaders of the (already dead) AngloZionist Empire and the (equally dead) USA to actually get something, anything, done. In the confrontation between western hot air and Russian military action, the latter has prevailed, yet again.
Tomorrow the US will try to scare Russia with talks about “sanctions from hell”. Good luck with that!
This attempted color revolution by USA was a childish tantrum, a sign of how powerless they feel.
Maybe, but I still we get the feeling that it was a test to see, again, and at her own border, Russia reacting and to have the chance to observe the organizatioon and equipment in action. Clearly, Blinken was very dissapointed that Kazakhstan got help on time, but further I think he was sadly impressed by the russian effective response. Bad news for Ukranian-NATO war dreams.
But maybe well suggestive of how crazy they really are, perhaps crazy enough to go “all in” on a kinetic war against Russia to begin in Ukraine. They either think the world does not take notice of their mad ineptitude and will succumb to naked fear of them or they are so mortified and angry that they do not care what anybody thinks. In either case, they must be stopped to secure a peaceful and prosperous 21st century.
A childish tantrum! A well planned and executed attempt at the destabilization of an entire vast region and the nations involved, no doubt at high cost?
Nah! It looks like the empire is operating at its stage and level, outstripped in sophistication in such processes by its former victims, who have turned the .
I was wondering what had actually happened in Kazakhstan given the reports I saw and heard. How in the hell could the Empire move just like that, catch Putin off guard and hang him up behind a massive 8-ball?
I mean that would have been indeed the heights of childish incompetence and nationalist inefficiency and incompetence. I could not see Russia that way. I came to with Yeltsin and a couple of his predecessors. Putin Restored some confidence in Russian nationalism yet I have refused to put my neck on the line where he is concerned
However so much falls into place with this development the logic of Putin’s superb planning/manipulation of the situation in the Russian interest is inescapable, undeniable and relieving that there is indeed a powerful presence at the centre of things that is at least traditionally logical/sane, with no intent for war and continuing irrational, extreme intense human exploitation…
Thanks for for this contribution. It made my day…helped me feel better now than I have felt in a while..
actually having only western generated info which I take not seriously, not for a very very long time now
Saker, can I suggest you edit/ revise this sentence.
Or. Expect to be taken out of context all over the internet
will do immediately
(I am still exhausted from my short trip)
thank you again (that was a bad one…)
Great that you respond uncommonly quickly to a. commentator: браво !
Willy Coyote (US/UK/CIA/Mi6/State Dept) get the stick of dynamite blown up in their faces.
The boulder falls on their head.
They zoom off the cliff.
Kazakhstan was a very fast debacle. 30 years of ‘vectoring’ came a cropper (which is a British phrase, quite ironic, eh?) in a few days.
Putin is munching the popcorn. Again.
What amazes me is that so few people in Zone A understand that.
I mean, all that talk about Russia being outflanked or NATO opening a 2nd front have to relation to any reality whatsoever.
I guess a lot of people simply cannot imagine that the “invincible hyperpower” has faceplanted yet again.
I don’t suppose that it is surprising that a corpse cannot change its mind, but still, the idiocy of what is said and written in Zone A never ceases to amaze (and amuse) me…
The proper, healthy reaction to all the words, statements, doctrines, white papers, pressers dispensed by the West is laughter.
It’s not that it is humorous, no way.
It is comic. Like a pratfall. A guy slipping on a banana. A guy bending over and ripping his pants.
Keystone Kops kapers.
Not even in smooth 24 frames a second motion. Herky jerky 18-20 frames stuff to add to the piano player in the orchestra pit, before soundtracks were invented.
The people in the west have no f***ing clue about anything anymore! It is amazing to observe the cognitive decline of this people. Following the reactions from Germany to Brazil… wow! So much BS. Some people, whom like to call themselves “influencers”, are even claiming Russia has invaded Kazakhstan, while others keep calling it a popular revolution taking place…
It is an insane plot to think they could arrange such a thing, with this scale, just on the other side of the border with Russia, she would just not see it coming and do nothing to prevent it.
We are in 2022 and US/NATO/Turkey are still not able to understand that they need to calculate very well their moves against Master Judo player Putin. Maybe it is better not move at all.
This week they will get another blow. Ryabkov will blow the cigar smoke in their faces, while looking to the monotone Lake Leman landscapes in Geneve.
‘Never Underestimate The Stupidity of The British/American Public’, alas, poor saps, bombarded at every turn from cradle to grave 24/7 with seamless propaganda.
Baffle them with Bullsh*t, Divide & Conquer, Red & Blue, TweedleDee/Dum, The Illusion of Choice.
Someone said it was bad cartography by the English, drawing borders lines along their lost Empire, when in reality they were well constructed/considered to cause major mayhem among the tribes, in order to continue maximum manipulation that made a peaceful co-existence among the natives impossible.
With the information/access that’s available today on a plethora of informed sites outside the Mainstream, there are no excuses for such ignorance. Investing £/$ 70-100k in a No Hope/ Obsolete Edumakation whose only guarantee is you’ll be indebted for the rest of your life beggars belief.
Still mustn’t grumble, one silver lining is that my wife, a lawyer, is representing a number of Afghani clients, recently residing here with their families/dependents stranded, in limbo, after the clusterfark in Afghanistan.
Be Seeing You!
“O povo do oeste não tem mais a mínima ideia de nada! É incrível observar o declínio cognitivo desse povo. Seguindo as reações da Alemanha ao Brasil…”
É muito lamentável concordar com parágrafo acima, afinal sou brasileiro, no entanto, diria que 95% da população brasileira é desorientada politicamente. Nao ache vocês que são pessoas analfabetas, ao contrario, são profissionais bem remunerados, diretores de empresas, escolas, professores doutores, mestrados, políticos. A presença da mídia pro-ocidente é descomunal e libertar -se da caverna de Platão é quase impossível aqui. Os brasileiros infelizmente desconhecem The Saker, Andrei Martianov, mesmo o brasileiro Pepe Escobar, Tierry Meyssan, Paul Craig Roberts, Frederick Wilams, Michael Hudson, Orlov entre outros. A lavagem cerebral é diária, meu círculo de amigos e parentes ja consigo contar com apenas 5 dedos de uma mão, impossível mudar a mentalidade dessa gente atrasada. Para os leitores do The Saker que não sabem, o golpe de 2017 contra uma presidenta eleita legitimamente(Dilma) teve também a mão escondida mas conhecida de sempre e colocaram no lugar uma pérola como o Bolsonaro no poder, que dispensa comentarios, outro psicopata de plantão alinhado ao Império. Uma derrota !
A história é vagarosa mas os tempos aceleram-se na presença de buracos negros.
I’ve been watching the USA stumbling since about 2000. The industry I was working in at the time took a nose-dive and I ended up doing a deep dive into US cultural trajectory and market probabilities. The upshot was i recommended my company start cultivating ties into Asia as that region was on an upswing and trending to continue, I also recommended we entertain ties with Russia as the proximity factor and resource base would fuel the Asian economy. Well we didn’t do that, smarter minds than mine suggested otherwise.
I still remember the conversation, “Mike, the sun never sets on the British empire!” “What does that mean Jack?” “The US is going down, we need to plan.” “Oh phish tosh! The USA is still the world leader, they’ll never go down!”
That is a prime example of the western ‘leader’ mentality.
Removed. Please stop the twisting of a tragic event. Stick to facts. Mod.
This showed NATO /USA how quickly Russia can act and in force….maybe it will only strengthen the Russian position on up coming talks.
Blinken’s face reminded me on this one:
What happened in KZ was a paramilitary attack meticulously organized but launched in haste by Western intelligence that had the goal of destroying the statehood of KZ. It was not an attempt to take it over (no time for that) but simply to destroy. The entire state structure was sufficiently rotten that the defense/security agencies couldn’t even pick sides and became demoralized and inactive, but once the Russians were called in to help they immediately knew which side would win and fell back in line. The West’s goal was to set KZ ablaze prior to the talks in Geneva in order to have a better negotiating position vis-à-vis Russia: “You want to divide spheres of influence? Well, we already did that for you—in Kazakhstan!” Keep in mind, the RU-KZ border is open, undefendable and almost 8000km long, running from Volgograd to Tomsk in Siberia, making KZ, as a failed state, a major headache for Russia. Obviously, Russia knew that KZ, rife with Western NGOs and accompanying corruption, and with a weakening economy, could easily be tipped over, and prepared for just this case. Now that the attack on KZ statehood has failed and a mop-up operation is in progress, this has given Russia a huge trump card for the Geneva talks. The West has played its cards and lost. There will be no more color revolutions in the post-Soviet space. Its operatives in KZ are being hunted down and eliminated. Those in positions of authority in KZ have learned the same lesson as Lukashenko: they cannot trust the West; they have to trust Moscow.
I 100% agree with you.
But most folks in Zone A simply cannot wrap their heads around that.
What just took place in KZ puts Russia in a truly sweet spot for the upcoming “negotiations” with the US, NATO and the OSCE.
But will anybody listen to your opinions?
I seriously doubt that there will be actual negotiations. With the US, the Russians will go trick-or-treating: signatures on the security agreement or military-technical surprises. With NATO, it’s all about cancelling training exercises on former East Bloc territories and timetables for its withdrawal to 1997 positions. With OSCE, it’s wine and canapé-tasting, plus some smalltalk. Have I left anything out?
I tend to agree with you.
Not only that, I catch myself thinking that a complete breakdown of negotiations might be a good thing.
I think the world now need a phase of active Russian unilateralism, that is the Russians need to do what they think they need to do and simply totally ignore the West.
Only THEN could *real* negotiations take place; or not, either way is fine by me.
Russia does not need any negotiations from the West, I think that the Kremlin is going through the motions for political reasons, but in term of outcomes, Russia can make them happen by herself.
Indeed, Ryabkov already told that it will be non concessions from Russian side. Basically, “I will come over there to watch you signing the documents, then check it against your ID cards …dealing yeah with you gringos, we never know. And please, finish ahead 5pm, I promise some Swiss chocolates to my grandsons… ” :)
I am curious about how the first level of pain (Sakers pain dial) will materialize… Selling S-400 to Iran? Giving up long term contracts in NS2 ? Some toys for guys to play in Syria, blowing up petroleum smuggling convoys ?
How about Su-35s for Iran?
That is a real possibility :-)
The Israelis are sneaking in to the north of Iran. They helped out Azerbaijan take on Armenia (not that they needed much help with poodle Pashinyan put sand in the gears). An Israel drone manufacturer sold drones to Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijanis wanted a live demo of them in action against Armenian forces. The low-level Israelis refused but a top executive donned Azerbaijani uniform and used the drones to attack Armenia. As a result, Israel now has an intelligence gathering post in the newly acquired Azerbaijan territory close to Iran’s northern border. I suspect they Israelis may be planning a sneaky attack via the northern route. If so, then extra missile/radar coverage would be more useful.
Turkey’s currency started collapsing, courtesy of Erdogan’s megolomania, but was recently rescued with a miraculous inexplicable appearance of $10 billion. Turkey shipping Takfiris to Kazakhstan might account for some of that. The rest? Well, there were rumors of rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia (Erdogan and Pashinyan). If that had come off, there would have been a safe (from Black Sea exposure) US-friendly air route to Kazakhstan (and coincidentally passing close to north Iran). The route could also just happen to be used by appropriate aircraft self-identifying as US. If it panned out, Israel could attack Iran, the US could take credit, giving Biden massive kudos with the Khazar mafia in the US, ensuring his re-election. The attack would be sufficient PR for Israeli politicos even if the targets were not severely damaged.
Now Pashinyan has been dragged by his military into siding with CSTO, that scenario now seems less likely, although concerns about mere legal niceties such as Armenian territorial integrity wouldn’t stop Israel if they were committed to the plan.
I really still don’t understand the rules of the game: Turkey, Israel, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Iran. Who is the winner/who is going to win? Is Russia the referee? I think Israel will win, but not the so-called Anglo-Zionism.
DE-37412 Herzberg-die Esperanto-Stadt
@ Dimitry Orlov
“I seriously doubt that there will be actual negotiations”
Russians are adopting many Anglos traits and tricks at increasing speed. This negotiations reminds me of Rambouillet Agreement in 1999. UK/US weasels intentionaly gave unacceptable proposals to Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, in take it-or-leave it manner. Let me remind you how those Angelic, peace protecting efforts really looks like:
“The accords called for NATO administration of Kosovo as an autonomous province within Yugoslavia; a force of 30,000 NATO troops to maintain order in Kosovo; an unhindered right of passage for NATO troops on Yugoslav territory, including Kosovo; and immunity for NATO and its agents to Yugoslavia. In addition, NATO forces would have the right to use local roads, ports, railways, and airports without payment of duties, dues, tolls or charges, as well as the right to use the electromagnetic spectrum without payment. NATO would also have the right to requisition public facilities for its use free of cost. NATO forces would have the right to hire local personnel who upon employment with NATO would be exempt from local laws in respect to acts performed in their official capacity, national service obligations, local labor laws, and taxes on their salaries. Local infrastructure would be subjected to improvements or modifications to by NATO forces when deemed necessary to facilitate the mission”
Of course, that was non-ultimatum also, God-forbids. But we all know what “military-technical measures” followed after negotiations failed.
Maybe, time comes for the Anglos to taste their own medicine?
That’s a completely gratuitous comparison. With NATO/Yugoslavia, the agreement was a prelude to aggression. With the current Russian request for security guarantees, it is a prelude to nonaggression. Sense the subtle difference? All Russia is asking is that NATO/US honor its previous agreements.
Now take your “Russians are adopting many Anglos traits and tricks at increasing speed” ball and go home. What a bunch of nonsense!
I didn’t mean to offend you. I really hope we are on the same side in this one.
I’m still trying to comprehend what exactly triggered you so much. It was an compliment to Russian military determination and speed. They showed Anglos how their praised “Shock and Awe” should look when done properly. Why am I glorifying using military force? There’s times when one must show strength to keep peace.
‘NATO is out there, it cant be bargained with, it cant be reasoned with, it doesn’t feel pity or remorse, and it will not stop until whole world is conquered.’ – we are living in a horror movie script.
Yugoslavia tried to be all diplomatic with NATO, look how that ended. What would happened in Kazakhstan if diplomatic path was taken? For this “negotiations” to bare fruit, it is of utmost importance that Western Masters realize that Russia will not take signed ball wrapped in worthless paper and go home. That consequences of failure will fall on their heads too. Giving them hints that they an sign themselves out of trouble is utterly irresponsible.
If NATO honors its previous (or any) agreement I’ll gladly eat my words.
But what happens if not?
Russians are adopting many Anglos traits and tricks at increasing speed.
My comment: Instead of the word (adopting) you should have used the word (Realizing).
I didn’t know the stipulations of the Rambouille Agreement regarding former Yugoslavia, but as you describe, the terms are absolutely insane, bordering on Psychopathy.
I hope that the Russians are beginning to realize that the US-NATO are operating like psychopaths with Grandiosity, Pathological lying, Conning, Manipulation, Lack of remorse, Lack of guilt and lack of empathy.
You can’t argue and come to an agreement with a Psychopath.
The only thing that will reign in a psychopath is severe consequences.
I sincerely hope that the Russian negotiators realize what type of psychology they will be meet with during the coming negotiations.
My advice is: Don’t Argue. State your terms, set the reed lines. Leave the meeting and take firm action if the lines are passed.
Dmitry Orlov wrote: Now take your “Russians are adopting many Anglos traits and tricks at increasing speed” ball and go home. What a bunch of nonsense!
My comment: I think you have misunderstood (one word) of the whole message from Blackring.
Thank you A.Dane
Yes, that must be it. Something was “lost in the translation”. Such things happens when one try to write more than couple of sentences, In an language that he failed in the high school.
You are welcome.
I read your whole post, and instantly realized the only (one word) stuck out from your message.
I think You are doing very well in the English language, as I understood your message.
Good illustration of our challenge to pull together in a world in conflict. Excess coffee, minimal sleep or awkward language and oops a bit more conflict where peace is already at a premium.
When the USS Liberty sat dead in the water, at the height of the cold war the Russians pulled near to her and flashed a semaphore message. Paraphrasing; We will standby if you need us. What a different world had she sunk and what remained of the crew been rescued by the Russians.
The motivation in battle overrides the technology, if your intent is evil you may prevail initially, but in the long run, forget about it.
Don’t get to visit often enough. Great to see Dmitry Orlov, lost track of his site. Finding it again is like recovering a lost treasure. Thank God for this site.
Seems long over due that the US accept some help from our Russian colleagues. We need it now more than ever!
I very much appreciated your comment about the Russian involvement near the USS Liberty. I had not been aware of this…always a pleasure to learn so much from The Saker site.
Blackring, no Mea Culpa was necessary, it was good of A Dane to lend his support.
Newsflash: Nato has all those rights mentioned given to by Vucic.
Also, according to the Rambouillet proposals the Kosovo Albanians would have the right on a referendum on independence.
That is why Milosevic was forced to reject it and Nato bombing began.
Integrating Kazakhstan tighter into the Eurasian Economic Union can potentially be a big blow to EU and USA, due to the fact that it’s a major supplier of rare metals which are used in the green transition scam in the West. Generally, there aren’t that many other suppliers, or they are very small suppliers. In case of further escalating trade wars these are a big bargaining chip in any table. The price can be basically set higher, as there are less independent suppliers, a “global” market level becomes less meaningful as it’s more set between blocks.
The West is suffering unsustainable inflation. Their last ditch effort is the Macron plan to recolonize central African mineral states with a 300 billion euro program. Beyond the propaganda this is what is happening, that’s why they are losing their marbles. I see a potential Weimar scenario or some similar post WW2 inflation scenario ahead. EU is finished, probably USA is better in terms of energy but they have a very stupid administration as well offsetting it. I’ve always considered the Euro Commission as a wannabe imitator of the Gosplan, the meaningful difference being of course that running a functioning central planned economy requires actually people with actually functioning brains, which are obviously lacking today.
An umbrella ban on US-NATO countries flying through Russian airspace will f*ck their sociopathic mindsets.
Starting with 5-eyes countries might be a better idea. And demand passenger information on other overflights, as the US does for overflights of US territory.
A side note — been a fan of yours since “Reinventing Collapse”. Thanks in part to your writing, none of this is a surprise to me.
Saker, thanks for another deep insight. Though I’m not looking forward to the next stage of collapse here. It looks like this year is going to be a time of serious shortages, as supply chains are being (deliberately?) disrupted. Nitrate plants shuttered, and very few have noticed.
I wonder how long it will take Europe to realize that they don’t need to self-destruct along with the empire…
As an European, I can respond as long as the current elites remain in power, that is until there will be a very big mayhem turning the continent upside down. This is sad for population. But elections cannot change anything important, look what happens with elections in France, Germany, Italy.. whoever wins, the same foreign and economic policy is performed. If some politician opposes, he is quickly put aside with some fake trial. If population revolts, police cracks down, because there is no, and cannot be, a political force coordinating the insurrection. So, we can only sit and pray that the landing of this crashing plane will be less hard as possible.
I disagree with the entire tone of Gianluca Cris.
We all know what the situation is…the final stage of capitalism and the resolution of the class struggle. If ordinary people are to survive in good order we must rise up and take over society and create society in our own interest and image and process.
We all know the situation and exactly what to do. It’s collective life and death regardless. It will likely come to a dire point of survival for the human population as a whole far less western Europe. It already is with global mandatory killer vaccination programs.
If you are not prepared to be decisive relative to your class interest already, way past time. If you are prepared to reason and speak as you do give up already. Go surrender yourself at that capitalist door. It should be quick for you and all such! In fact simply go get you vaxx mandated jab. We see how heartless and unconcerned the capitalist about anything but his own class interest. He no doubt loves how you are already making his life easier
As a French I 100% agree with you.
Very good point and conclusion Mr. Orlov!
“this has given Russia a huge trump card for the Geneva talks.”
This assumes that the Subsecretary of State agrees with the things you state. However, the Russian Deputy FM was “stunned” after talking to her, because of the very different things she believes and concludes. Needless to say, she would disagree with your exposition above. If you will, she is more likely to think, instead, that the Russians themselves organized something like that (naturally). She believes – wishes – sanctions work as presumed. The simple things the FM will tell her will sound like “Chinese” to her. Like the man said, “different planets.” It may actually stiffen her resolve.
I agree with you about the resolve going up a notch or more. Their track record has been to double down when they lose. I do not expect anything different this time around. What may be different is that some of their support will be deciding that this direction can nolonger be followed; a limit reached.
A good day to you
Hello John. Putin compared this to ‘Maidan’ (Euromaidan), saying foreign forces were involved. He has been specific before about who was behind Maidan, in his interview with Oliver Stone if I recall, and elsewhere. It doesn’t really matter what irrational actors believe or prefer, or whoever believed in ‘this direction’. It matters what Putin believes or what conclusions he reaches, his experience and ability being acknowledged by all. He might be the most powerful man, or one of the two most powerful. Since he has made himself that clear, it can not be ignored in my modest opinion. (It’s not us saying it.)
Will those in “decision-making centers” experience consequences?
Excellent analysis Saker, and impressive given the short time frame.
Among so many thorns to annoy the US state department, NGOs, and intel forces in the angloshere is the now widespread (across the “normie) internet iuse of the term “color revolution”.
That such a “playbook” exists was barely known by many anglo so called “expert” analysts pre and immediately post Maiden.
Everyone and his grandma is now an expert in identifying color revolutions, it would seem from my trawl thru the FB an twits of “nobodies”.
I agree Kazakhstan has a more Syrian style play than Maiden.
White a color rev template exists, *they( do try to tweet it to reflect “in country, on ground” circumstances.
The shut down of the internet was a important lesson learnt from the Arab Spring… the tweeters and bloggers in Ukraine Poland London and elsewhere were already rolling, and the hash #KazackSpring was being given a false “trend” by twitter. And then suddenly, no internet.
The screaming about this loss of “freedom” was loud. But Kazakhstan already had a reputation as a repressive shithole anyway, so those who were the audience for the narrative creating bloggers just shrugged,
.Again, an excellent analysis, thanks Andrei.
Information warfare wise this was interesting: the insurgents shut down all the TV stations, which forced the government to shut down the Internet and part of the mobile network. Of course, the core insurgent groups all had satphones and could still coordinate their attacks. That stopped when the Russian brought in the EW gear which put an end to that.
Modern warfare at its most typical.
I read somewhere in one of the telegram channels that the terrorists were cutting signal cables and damaged some cell phone anthem towers as well. They really were using satellite mobile phone. I also wonder now, with the cleaning going on, the law enforcement forces getting access to many of these NGO offices and acquiring information.
Some (I mean many) of the insurgents came from Uzbekistan and Kirghistan, they have training camps there. So I think some very discrete action will take place there as well.
“Самолет специального летного отряда (СЛО) «Россия» вылетел из московского аэропорта Внуково и направился в сторону Казахстана.”
Ту-214ПУ – военный самолет спецназначения: Воздушный командный пункт, связь, управление и ретрансляция. Борт оборудован в т.ч. аппаратурой РЭБ “Порубщик” (КРЭТ), который работает в пассивном поисковом режиме, а после обнаружения цели ставит направленную помеху – точечно заглушать радиоканалы противника в узком диапазоне, не мешая работе своих радиотехнических средств, использующих смежные частоты. Потенциальные цели для “Порубщика” – самолеты ДРЛОи У, радиотехнические средства зенитных ракетных комплексов, каналы связи с БпЛА …
yandex.com .. mod
“The plane of the special flight detachment (SLO) “Russia” took off from Moscow’s Vnukovo airport and headed towards Kazakhstan.”
The Tu-214PU is a special-purpose military aircraft: an air command post, communications, control and relay. The board is equipped, including electronic warfare equipment “The “Chopper” (KRET), which operates in passive search mode, and after detecting the target puts a directional interference – to pointwise muffle the enemy’s radio channels in a narrow range, without interfering with the operation of its radio equipment using adjacent frequencies. Potential targets for the “Chopper” are AWACs aircraft, radio-technical means of anti-aircraft missile systems, communication channels with UAVs …
Very significant indeed, thanks for the info!!
In regard to information warfare – well the CSTO is trolling US/NATO by holding their meeting at exactly the same time as the Geneva one with the US. Lots of updates on Sputniknews:
I particularly liked this one from the Kazakh President:
“Kazakhstan Will Present International Community With Evidence of Aggression Against the Country, Tokayev Says”
and from VVP:
“Putin: CSTO Peacekeeping Contingent Stopped Foreign Terrorists in Kazakhstan and Will Remain There as Long as Needed”
“The “Chopper” (KRET), which operates in passive search mode, and after detecting the target puts a directional interference…”
Does they mention possibility of pinpointing source of satellite transmittert/phone emissions? That would be real game changer.
EW and countermeasures are one of the more interesting aspects of modern military equipment.
About 7 years ago, when following reports from Syria on Twitter (before it was so heavily filtered), I saw a few seconds of leaked video, in the near-infrared, of a Russian tank (I think operated by the Syrian army) — it had an infrared dazzler going, and I only needed to see it operate for a few seconds, and “ohh, so _that’s_ how that works!” — apparently for TOW and Javelin missiles.. Well, nevermind.
Anyway, disrupting radio communications now is more like a contest between computer hacking softwares, than it is a show of strength. A GPS / SatNav spoof does not need a lot of power to ‘bend’ the latitude and longitude just enough to change the course of an automated drone, or obfuscate other position signals. And spread-spectrum communications can be disrupted by a very low power signal, if it sufficiently resembles the signals used by the system (but with a little timing/frequency/data fuzz).
And it’s all so much smaller now, a plane or truck can hold a _lot_ of jammer technology.
I could not have said it better. :)
the kind of reverse shit spewed in some sites where Pepe still contributes defies imagination… i mean, read them for a hearty laugh
(author an ex WaPo schill)
(some prof of contorted history at Penn State — i can only imagine what the students leave with)
First, let’s not do the guilt by association thingie, we all have bills to pay.
Second Pepe is not to blame for what the AT posts any more than I was to blame for the crazy shit the Unz Review posted while I was still collaborating with it.
turning China against Russia and Russia against China is a top priority for the USA.
nothing new or surprising here.
I am pretty sure Pepe is not comfortable with such things either. And I also second fully what Andrei told, Pepe is not to blame for these things at Asia Times. Actually, since a while he does not publish any piece there. His last piece at Asia Times was about one month ago… did you notice that?
Here at Sake’s Blog we had P.E. just 06/01…
Asia Times used to be a reasonable news source about 12-15 years ago, mostly balanced articles. I can’t remember the exact year but it was prior to 2014 when I popped on to see if there was anything new and found that the commentator section was either gone or not visible, the website interface had been changed, and the only ‘news’ was very much pro-USA.
Right, I noticed the change too by about the same time. Pepe was basically the only one who contributed good articles in Asia Times since then.
@Alpine, thank you for confirming that the stink which I detected in a recent Asia Times article (the first of your 2 Links to AT mourning the “loss” of Kazakhstan) actually originated from the Washington Post stable. Asia Times has a split personality. One personality of this fine little online newspaper is an Anglo-Zio Capitalist “Times” alter-ego modelled on the English Times / Financial Times / New York Times globalist mouthpieces. A few years ago this Anglo-Zio-Capitalist personality at Asia Times actually managed to “lose” their world-acclaimed journalist, Pepe Escobar whose mentality is poles apart from AZC. Pepe was reinstated a year later when, I presume, the Eurasian personality at Asia Times took over again. I fear, from those two articles you cited, that Asia Times under influence of its split personality, might carelessly “lose” Pepe again.
This operation of the Union State of Americastan, Israel, Perfidious Albion, and Banderastan, follows the typical modus operandi of American foreign policies, be it “diplomacy,” regime change tactics, media propaganda (a largely redundant mention since it is often part of the first two items), etc.
If you want to see a good illustration of the tactics and methods involved, you can peruse these illustrations:
Its depressing watching all these weak stupid leaders around russia, one dumber than the other. Lukashenko takes the price, one stupid F****** idiot
I also said it just didnt feel like a cia organised coup, maybe it had cia blessing, but organised by corrupt politicians and large elements from within the secret service of kazakstan.
Gilbert Doctorow, the Russia specialist, argues that at or near the top of the Russian agenda of things it can do to US/NATO to restore Russian security are surgical strikes against the Tomahawk-compatible “defensive” missiles being installed in Poland and Rumania and other threatening weaponry installed since 1997 in countries formerly within the Soviet block. This is my view as well, if Russia is serious about restoring its security. What do you think?
I think that there is a good reason why I don’t mention this person or his “analyses” on the blog :-)
It looks like that article by Dr D has been translated by yandex and has appeared in a number of Russian publications. The translators didn’t include some of the more inflammatory suggestions.
I wonder if the Russians had the events in mind that took place in Kahzakstan this week, when they approached the US with their demands in December, like make them think we focus on our west border, while you silently prepare for troubles on our south-east border and we also prepare for it … So in some way they made a counter-trap for a trap, which now maybe proves the complete uselessness of the Nato.
Certainly Russia is the winner here, and Belarus, just as China won in HK and no one won in Venezuela.
The question though is did US lose, or did it just make a noise in a country it has already lost.
Either the people in place could be remove quietly (for what purpose? brought back to US?) or they could shoot a few people and die themselves.
Either the CIA/MI6 controllers could wind the whole thing down and then retire, or they could light a few fires, claim victory (no one in West will argue) and hope to get a new project for CIA.
This is what happens when you have already lost. It isn’t just hypersonic weapons where Russia have been preparing for conflict with US.
Then did Putin demand from Biden the exit from Kazakhstan? In which case the CIA would certainly have lit the touch paper rather than take instructions, even wise instructions, from a mere president.
And Turkey. If Turkey is involved (Erdogan is mad after all), then the fall out with Russia is a huge gain for US in place where winning matters.
Turkey is involved BIG time, and they are now having the same hysterics as the folks in Langley…
Back stabbing is a Turkish tradition. It goes back to the Ottoman years. Erdogan wants a solid relationship with Russia, yet is following the US/NATO line of encircling Russia, in this case with Turkmen living outside Turkey. This philosophy has already backfired with Kazakhstan.
“The question though is did US lose, or did it just make a noise in a country it has already lost.”
The power of a bully / hegemon depends on victims believing that punishment is sure and swift for disobedience.
When a bully strikes, and misses, or worse still, face plants, once too often, then victims begin to see that the bully has lost his power.
That is what is happening to the US in real time — one face-plant after another.
And the world wakes up to the promise of a new day. The bully is dying, long live freedom!
Or as Saker says, the bully is dead. And I say long live freedom.
Hey Andrei, I’ve been following this site since the standoff of 2013. Your material/geopolitical (sorry Mr. Martyanov) analysis has been spot on since then! Also, thanks for including a map of Kazakhstan! Even though I read The Grand Chessboard in 2006, I still need maps to keep all of this stuff straight. Looking forward to Masimov’s interrogation leading to more Takfiris eating bullets!
Thank you very much. This is what we in the West need to hear. Thank you
Nothing is impossible in politics but for what its worth it may be possible that Erogan was a NATO Fifth Columnist informing Putin what NATO was planning as he cannot simply dismiss what Putin did saving his life and Gov’t when his dear friend turn on him. Putin, sold him a Russian jewel the S-400 system and it would hard press if he will be such ingrate to forget Putin’s kindness.
I really don’t think so. Erdogan now wants to create a new Turkic security alliance with all the states he considers part of the “Turkic world”.
Losing Kazakhstan is a disaster for pan-Turkism.
Erdogan always makes two way bets, so that whoever wins in a conflict, he gets his money back.
So where did it work? An example please.
Erdogan is destroying himself with his imperial, Ottoman ambitions. The Turkish currency is collapsing, no doubt due to Erdogans imperial expenditures. Same thing with the US dollar. Empires cost money and lead to financial collapse.
>… cannot simply dismiss what Putin did saving his life
No good turn goes un punished.
Erdogan is as loyal as any snake.
Or. A certain breed of dog.
That the family adopt as a puppy, feed, play with, love… and then one day, for absolutely no reason, it turns and rips your face of, or eats your child…..
Erdogan is that breed of “dog”
Another brilliant — factually true and logically flawless — strategic analysis from The Saker, and it very suitably links to his earlier and equally brilliant analysis of the future of Ukraine (breakup).
thank you Eric, for your kind words!
With a country (KZ) with such an internal ethnic Russian presence, and given the whole world’s “intelligence” services know how good Russian intelligence is, how in hell can the West think they can organise a coup and get away with it? Same goes for 404. The kids in the CIA/MI6 don’t have a clue.
The amount of time, training, and treasure that went into this attempt is almost unfathomable. For a personal example I “trained” with Kazakhstan’s Army in CONUS around 2007 or 08. I put the word training in quotations because their soldier’s didn’t do a lot of training. They were very quiet, stuck to themselves and took a lot of pictures of any charts or papers left out. It was kind of unsettling to me at the time.
In contrast the Uzbeks really like to party and were very hospitable in their country. The impression I got from Uzbekistan was that of a country run by gangsters.
To see the Empire fail this spectacularly in Kazakhstan is going to send shock waves throughout Central Asia and the Caucasus region. I am very surprised that Western Intel made the decision to start its big Central Asian move in Kazakhstan. I would have bet on Uzbekistan or a proxy move in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. All of this seems a bit rushed and turned out very unfavorably for the Empire. They are running out of moves that can be made.
If this were chess I would concede and reset the pieces. We will see how negotiations go with Russia soon. I’m not holding my breath as the people that run the Empire appear to be very arrogant and terminally stupid.
“The impression I got from Uzbekistan was that of a country run by gangsters.” — Well, just factor in the Biden element (for example) and you have a close match with the USA & City of London etc.
“All of this seems a bit rushed and turned out very unfavorably for the Empire.” — indeed, and why I suspect the Russians have forced/pre-empted the move (to their strategic advantage).
Kazakhstan used to have about 40% Russians.
Nowadays its about 18%.
That is what is meant by “multi-vectorness” Kazakh style
I was planning to claim the same thing not so long time ago when writing a comment on an article about Kazakhstan in Serbia. So I started the research first and looked at the available population statistics since Soviet time.
The truth is somewhere in the middle.
The largest portion of decline happened at the time of Soviet dissolution (4,48 => 3,8 millions).
So I wouldn’t relate that to “multi-vectorness”.
The second relative decline happened mostly do to increase of Kazakhs population by 65% (8=>13 millions) where at the same time Russian population declined by 25% (4.48 => 3.48 millions), census 1989 => 2021 (estimation because all calculations from the latest census are not officially finished yet).
So in percentage (last 3 polls): 37% => 24,7% => 18,4%.
Main source: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9D%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9_%D1%81%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B2_%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B0%D1%85%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0
Somewhat related: The officially banned Independence Day celebrations of the Autonomous Serb Republic in Bosnia were carried off in style – another fine ‘fuck you’ to the US.
Photo essay in
The Bosnian-Serbs rock!!
They are the best, and they are used to deal with occupiers.
And time is on their side :-)
Yes, President Dodik has balls, unlike that weasel Vucic.
I hope to see Republika Srpska united with Serbia, but that won’t happen before NATO collapse.
Back on the topic, truly impressive action from CSTO! Congrats to brothers!!!
Hristos se Rodi!
Hopefully there will be a complete Balkan makeover with collapse of NATO. Pro Russian voices will gain a platform, currently completely sidelined as they are due to US chokehold. IN Makedonija for example, majority Macedonians are pro-Russia but it is anathema for any “leadership” to dare admit. Greater Albania project must begin to stagnate, to wit; recently, a so-called Alb. intellectual stated, “nothing to worry about, we have America on our side”.
I hope that the Republika Srpska becomes the model which will resurrect Serbia proper.
As for Vucic and his minion, I hope that they end up like Mussolini.
Vaistinu se rodi!
This has been planned for a long time. Moldova is going to be the next target. Moldova has been playing silly games over gas purchases, a bit like Belarus before Russia informed Lukashenko that the US had planned a hit on him. The Moldova coup would give Moldova to Romania and surround Transdneister with implacable enemies.
Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground
If you’re gonna shoot, shoot, don’t talk – Tuco, The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.
Russia requested/gave ultimatum regarding their security and the US-NATO responded with TERROR.
Russia must cancel talks at least until Kazakhstan is fully liberated and the instigators dealt with. Any evidence of US’NATO involvement will strengthen their hand at a future meeting . . . if any.
The talks have already started tonight in the smaller format. Mod.
Not only can we westerners not wait till fall to count chickens, our time horizons compel us to count them as soon as the hen lays the eggs, even if the roosters have not even fertilized them yet.
What about Ukraine? Poor scorned Ukraine, looking for attention, but not getting it!
PS I am 100% sure Russia knew something was coming so had appropriate forces pre-placed and faciliated rapid CSTO agreement. The best thing to do is let the opposition commit their move and go in hard once their strategy is exposed.
The 2019 RAND plan marks out Moldova and Transdneister as the next targets. No doubt Russia is similarly prepared.
What next for the US? The will have blown almost everything. Armenia coming on side with block a US-friendly air corridor from Turkey to the Caspian via Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkey has been making nice with Armenia recently with a hint of a rapprochement, but that looks to have been stymied. Poor Erdogan and his dreams of Empire.
All of this will open Russia’s hand elsewhere – maybe covering Syria as it takes out al Tanf, Idlib, east Syria – the establishmenty of a fully fledged Russian airbase wasn’t done on a whim.
Is there any chance that any of this will have a positive fallout for ordinary Kazachs (of all ethnicities) or will it be more of the usual corruption and economic immiseration?
“Just by the sheer magnitude of the insurrection (about 20’000 well organized and trained combatants all over the county) and its extreme violence (cops had their heads cut off!), it was pretty obvious that this was not something spontaneous, but something carefully prepared, organized and then executed. The way the insurgents immediately attacked all TV stations and airports, while bigger mobs were trashing the streets and looting stores, shows a degree of sophistication Ed Luttwak would have approved of!
To me, this is much more similar to what happened in Syria in the cities of Daraa, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Damascus, and many more.”
To think, there are many people and institutions in Zone A–especially the Anglo American nations–that believe the Kazak upheaval was primarily driven by ordinary people rising up because of issues like fuel prices, inequality, or political corruption–or even because of opposition to pandemic measures!
These delusions even appear not only in the Anglo-American mainstream but also the “alternative” media.
No. This was a full-fledged armed insurrection that was following the template that the USA, UK and their allies like Turkey deployed in their (ongoing) dirty war against Syria.
Great review. I think it deserves to be accompanied by this one I found on the ukraine.ru website signed by Rostislav Ischenko and available at the link:
I’ve been a regular reader of Saker since he published his first reviews (I believe more than ten years ago) and this is the first comment I make. I say this because I only comment on the spaces I frequent on the web when I feel that I can actually contribute with their content. Which, in my view, is the case with this comment by Rostilav Ischenko.
“comment by Rostilav Ischenko” – good commentary to read.
Rostilav Ischenko is absolutely top notch.
If I had the means, I would have all his articles translated and posted here.
After reading an automatic translation of that link I believe that Turkey is the best analogy with Erdogan managing to save his neck (with Russian forewarning) and then purging the Turk system of high officials from (allegedly) the Muhammed Fethullah Gülen flavor. I’m not sure if the Kazakhstan banker-bandit, Mukhtar Ablyazov is more a Juan Guaido or Gulen varient — depends on whether there were/are cult undertones involved I assume.
And, yes, this is a good Saker report. Puts in clear wording what many who follow the blog would have intuitively come to conclude in any case. With a long-term reading of the Saker blog (and selected others) for broader context (and insight into Russian psyche) the dots are fairly easy to connect these days.
What’s next? Western delay tactics (and hysterical screaming with sanctions plus etc) vs. imminent surgical strikes at the Nato cancer sites on the wrong side of Russian red-line? Russia sending in their top male defence team and the USA some little female princess and a few eunechs wearing rainbow panties. The insult is clear and obvious — so many will be hoping to see fast riding now that the Russians appear to have mounted.
Thanks for the link Mario.
Ischenko makes many good points and I believe his reading of France and Germany’s stance vis-a-vis RF-US relations is correct. Some of the elites in both countries have come to the painful conclusion that their countries — as it has been for centuries in European history — will be the battleground should US and RF come to blows (God forbid). So despite the belligerent rhetoric (eg Annalena Baerbock’s) emanating out of Berlin, it seems Germany is taking matters into its own hands — reasonable step to my mind, considering its own survival is at stake — and talking to Russia. These are small steps to be sure but the Empire, a declining one, needs all the solidarity it can muster in its face-off with Russia; and steps such as these are ones it cannot dismiss off-hand.
“BERLIN, December 29. /TASS/.
The German Cabinet confirmed Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s advisor Jens Ploetner’s plans to hold negotiations with Russian Deputy Administration head Dmitry Kozak, Cabinet spokesman Wolfgang Buechner said Wednesday.…”
Would love to see Blinken’s face when Rybakov shows him the Biden-Massimov ‘books’ and the ‘Big Guy’s 10%’ commission.
Excellent, Saker, truly excellent. You have seriously earned my monthly donation! :-) This type of analysis is outstanding in its clarity and perceptiveness. Stay strong, healthy, and blessed.
Wow. It’s hard to have access to what’s going on behind the scenes. The planet is big. It was still a big risk for Russia and China. It is curious that the president of Kazakhstan has called Putin. What if he didn’t call? I don’t see any female soldiers from Ukraine or the US going to Kazakhstan to fight Russian male soldiers. The West has reversed the natural order of things. 2022 is starting hot, like the blaze of the sun.
Remember the Night Witches of the 46th “Taman” Guards Night Bomber Aviation Regiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_Witches or Soviet female snipers, https://www.bygonely.com/soviet-women-snipers-wwii/ As a friend says, never mess with Muma Bear.
all rules have exceptions, or at least temporarily. Civilian women also fought in Stalingrad, in that extraordinary condition that was the second great war on the Soviet side. Women are also great nurses. The “Night Witches” were just three female air force units. It was a special condition, the Russians needed more soldiers, and they took advantage of the favorable conditions of the ships that had a maximum speed lower than the stall speed of both the Messerschmitt Bf 109 and the Focke-Wulf Fw 190, which made it very difficult for the German pilots. slaughter. As for the Soviet snipers, there were only two thousand women. War is not a romantic movie on netflix/hollywood and “Girl Power”. CNN and BBC documentaries love this sort of thing to use as disgusting, fanciful propaganda to create social chaos in the Orient. Your language is Russian, and we know that rapes happen in Donbass, and the Ukrainians are planting something, which they will reap in the future with many tears. Unfortunately they are flouting common sense. What Ukraine is doing is putting women soldiers to be shields in case there is a war against Russia. Putting women on the front lines, and leaving men in the kitchen at home doing housework, is a disgrace to the men of one nation, of Ukraine. Invert reality. So we’re going to put “little person/little dwarf” soldiers on the front lines, and we’re going to leave people of normal height at home eating popcorn, because the Democratic Party of the Empire wants all people to be equal, and “to beat the weak and evil Russians”. We will fulfill the will and desire of the greedy and misrepresented Zionists. Russia will win, and NATO and USA will have to retreat, for the good of all humanity.
Excellent writeup Mr. Saker!
One caveat I’d like to add is I believe President Tokaev was in on the plan from the beginning, and unlike his predecessor (wherever he is now) is not a multi-vectorist, playing a role similar to that of Putin in relation to Yeltsin.
I think Tokaev had no doubt as to who ultimately butters the Kazakh bread and made a very ballsy call. Even with the backing of Putin, if things had gone poorly, Tokaev could well have ended up being dragged naked down a street with some moderate headchoppers waiting for him at the end of the line.
Tokaev in my opinion, has a great deal of geopolitical intellect, possibly in the same league as Putin and Xi. If so, Kazakhstan has a bright future ahead of it, despite some of the things that are stacked against it. When I look at the Kazakh people, they seem like what one would get if Russia and China had children, barely Turkic at all, at least in the Turkish sense.
His speech on the second night of the riots was a bravura performance. He hit all of the points that the occasion demanded and came down on the side of the people writ large in the details. I’m looking forward to his presentation at their legislative body tomorrow (tonight?).
A small remark regarding mentioning Vucic/Serbia and his “multi-vector” policy (I believe twice) and comparing to Lukashenko/Belarus and other Russia-neighboring countries.
In case of Serbia, I see this policy very wise and rational, perhaps best possible in order to preserve Serbian national interests.
First, Serbia has no border to Russia and countries separating it from Russia are NATO states. Thus operation to support Serbia from Russia in similar situation as in Kazakhstan few days ago (even if Russia is willing to do it) would not be possible in similar (or even functional) way.
Second Serbia is surrounded by several states – members or aligned with NATO that have problems with bare existence of Serbia. These countries/nations all supported NATO aggression over Serbia in 90’s.
And third, the most important is Russia’s Balkan policy and interests – very different than those in “close neighbor”. Some might not remember, but Russia voted for sanctions to Serbia (Yugoslavia at that time) and participated US/NATO policy against Serbian interests during 90’s. I am sure everyone remember Russian army entering Slatina airport, Kosovo which all the Serbs thought of as a game-change, but they withdrew in 2003 (Putin president at that time). Russian forces were precious for survival of Serbs at that time, as well as Russian presence would be precious until this day, if they remained. There was S-300 deal with Russia (everyone in Serbia talked about), that Milosevic believed will realize until very beginning of NATO bombardment campaign. Not sure if his decisions before NATO aggression would be the same if he knew he will not get it.
In 2008, after SNS (Vucic’s party) came to power, overthrowing democrats that were obvious western puppets, Tomislav Nikolic (Vucic’s mentor and predecessor) went to Moscow (first trip abroad) to ask Putin if Russia could guaranty any security to Serbia.
Current “multi-vector” policy of Vucic/Serbia is a result of that answer and real geopolitical relations surrounding Serbia. So “multi-vector” is not necessary bad policy for Serbia, from my point of view, it is best possible at this time.
Apologize for being off-topic, but needed to clear this as was mentioned in text.
Well, here we simply have to agree to disagree.
So you trust Andrei with his assessment about everything else … except for Vucic, so you had to teach him a lesson about good Vucic and bad Russia that betrayed Serbia.
Yeah, you have definitely changed his mind by this “small remark”.
Besides, Andrei, I am grateful that you’ve at last chosen to call out Vucic despite the decision not to be driven in the Serb’s (our) internal disputes.
Republika Srpska is an example of the small entity being able to resist the west without compromising core national interests. I’m absolutely sure Dodiks actions are coordinated with and aproved by Russia.
While the west is loosing with every move where they stir up tensions aiming to provoke Russia, Russia is winning where it selects to (Republika Srpska is the most recent example).
He wanted to express that there is another angle to look at the situation. Serbia doesn’t owe anything to Russia, and Russia doesn’t owe anything to Serbia. States have interests that align sometimes and when they do those states can try to work together.
It is more complicated then that. Russia and Serbia did owe each other in their history, but then both countries were taken over by Communists and, later, by traitors. Putin succeeded in liberation Russia from the Russian traitors. In Serbia they still rule (how is Vucic different from, say, a Pashinian?). So all Russia can do is wait until the Serbian nation liberates itself and reassembles territories which historically belong to the Serbian nation, including Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenego of course. When that happens, Serbia will find a great deal of sincere sympathy from Russians. But that does not happen, then this will mean the end of the Serbian nation which shall be “Ukrainized” by the West the same way the Ukraine was. This will be sad, but will otherwise have zero impact on Russia.
That is why Vucic groupies are wasting their breath, they *think* that what will happen to Serbia matters to Russia. The truth is that it does not. Russia would prefer having a sovereign ally in the Serbian nation, but if that is not God’s will, then fine – Russia can do without Serbia. The reverse is, of course, not true at all.
Simply put: we eventually climbed out of the shithole the West lovingly prepared for us.
Serbia is, alas, still very much stuck in that self-same shithole.
God only knows what the future will bring to our nations. Whether we choose to resist or not depends on us. The outcome of our struggles depend on Him.
“Pragmatic prostitution” (aka “multi-vectorality) only leads deeper into that shithole as every single country and leader which tried that have shown.
Same causes will have the same effects.
But if Vucic groupies are happy and proud of their leader and his policies, by all mean, enjoy and good luck!
Makes no difference to us whatsoever.
1……until the Serbian nation liberates itself …..
For that, we need someone to open the front with NATO and weapons in sufficient quantities, which is not possible if Russia supports Vucic in every election. Don’t forget that. The Russian ambassador is with Vucic every now and then. Furthermore, Russia needs a corridor towards Serbia, Bulgaria as its child is always on the side of the enemy, and the Russians also supported the departure of adriatic passage via Montenegro via Deripaska. If you liberate Ukraine, you may be able to deliver enough weapons through Hungary, which has a lot to talk about with the Croats :)).It would also be good for the Volgars to return home to Mommy to get them off our backs. The rest will be resolved very soon.
2…..which historically belong to the Serbian nation, including Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenego of course….
What about Krajina in Croatia, where Russia invest more than Serbia? Will we forget that, as Russian diplomacy does ?? After the genocide that no one talks about, and ethnic cleansing. Business as usuall ?? Don’t internationals (backed by serbian Yugoslavs) think that Serbs will hang out with Croats in some new fraternal union like Panarin mentioned?? As a model of Jastrebov said … Serbia is a young snake that should not be allowed to grow teeth.
You got this wrong. Vicis is Putin’s double A. He does what e is told, just as “2nd Kosovo President”, Behgjet Isa Pacolli do, after Russia trained him and made him a millionaire and then insteeld him on Kosovo. If you did not know, he actually remodeled Kremlin and did some other project for which you have to have the right connections. There is another agent running company a billion dollar company in Russia while the owners job is to laundry cash, buld hotels in Mali Losinj and bribe Croatian politicians, while his daughter is married for the 1 year younger boy, whose father is the richest guy in Croatia and directly connected with the Washington elite. That boy was given to run Putin’s “Gelnchuk estate” on Black see. I cannot give you name or company name in public forum. But don’t worry about Vucic, he is not a problem. What you seemingly do not get (yet) is HOW good is this team around Putin and how log is their reach.
Dodik/Republika Srpska actually has the space for the policy of defending national interests very much thanks to Serbia and relaying to Serbia’s strength and support. If Serbia was not what it currently is in economical, political and military terms, I doubt Dodik wold have necessary space. Not under-estimating Russian influence in wider geopolitical sense (important for Serbia too). Imagine yellow/democrats still being on power in Serbia.
I know it is popular to antagonise Vucic these days, but beside bad things, I see many important steps to re-gain sovereignity as much as possible, including growth of military power, and domestic military industry.
I firmly would claim Srpska is acting despite Vucic and not thanks to him.
And regarding betrayal of Kosovo:
– completely removed Serbian institutions
– most probably caused if not ordered killing the leading Serb leader in K. Mitrovica (Oliver Ivanovic) who opposed him and his cronies
– gave away Telecom and Energy sector
– forced Serbs to accept Albanian documents
– replaced most of the patriots with either loyal idiots or worst criminals as leaders there (one of them accused of killing Oliver Ivanovic)
– together with Albainan criminals and murders is running criminal smuggling enterprise
– and list is going on and on
Vucic is scum of the earth and has brought up the worst among the worst from all segments of the society but mostly from the western vassals :
Brnabic = prime minister – illiterate kleptocrat, she latterly can’t put together a complex sentence, but she is utterly loyal to her boss (as she calls Vucic) though by the constitution she has all the power except for defense and … she is lesbian, so she is perfect for the role
Mali = finance minister, proven gross plagiator of the dr dissertation, owner of the 24 apartments in Bulgaria from the time of the early robber privatization, former Belgrade mayor at a time when thugs in masks and bulldozers destroyed a part of the city, causing the death of the guard – heart attack while been tied the pole, to make place for the scheme of money laundering through apartment buildings at the most lucrative place,
Former Infrastructure minister Babic – another illiterate academic, murder of the women at the highway toll-station with the government car – key 2 minutes from the surveillance camera were removed though mr Vucic said publicly to the family that he personally watched the video, and it was horrible for showing to the public (showing images of-cut off heads by the clan controlled by him when it was politically opportune and explaining live on national tv how victims were made to minced meat to be grilled despite family of the potential victims – still missing been shocked was ok) though that part never appeared in the court so the official driver got blame
2-week trained soldier while minister (conscription dodger during the war) Defense minister Vulin – without any previous work or experience, buyer of the luxury apartment without no previous income claiming he got the money from his aunt in Canada without any proof
I could go on and on for hours.
You and alike can put your heads in sand, choose not to see the reality or just (in)directly work for hem – basically the reason is irrelevant, and I’m not really sure which is the worst.
Any sane or mildly objective person would see president Vucic for what he really is: pathological layer, psychopath, person who publicly humiliate his spinless, incompetent ministers live on tv (no consequences because everything is just the show for the masses), person who unconstitutionally has taken all the powers in Serbia despite claiming to be the best law student in generation …
Serbia is in free fall off the cliff and if somebody yells he gets shout with: why are you complaining, it is nice breeze, view is beautiful and, we are flying like a bird.
Yes, some (few) are going to fly away to some warm, sunny destination while most of ordinary people are going to hit the ground.
And no, I won’t continue. This is my last message on the topic.
you had to teach him a lesson about good Vucic and bad Russia that betrayed Serbia.
Yeah, you have definitely changed his mind by this “small remark”
Oh, I am already used to that crap. It is exactly the same with the Russia-China alliance: there are A LOT of (paid and unpaid) trolls who will try very hard to create anti-Russian sentiment in China and anti-Chinese sentiment in Russia. I know for a fact that the Vucic regime uses such trolls (Serbian friends have explained that to me a while ago already) and their goal is to put as much distance or, even better, hostility between Russians and Serbs.
Only time will show if they are successful or not.
I am very sorry to hear that kind of tone in your reply, I am not able to switch to that kind of communication. If you are willing to publish my reply I will try to further argument the stance of an patriot Serb loving his nation and country and being aware of our very specific historical experience, which I see equal to “very specific us”.
Not sure if it’s any worth as already labeled as “crap” , “paid or unpaid troll”, but reputation of your blog, the fact I like most of the content here, motivates me to go further – would not in any other case.
First, Russia being friend to Serbia and our nations being brothers – many people in Serbia think of Russians as brothers, including myself – an orthodox nation and empire that never attacked us (that is a great plus when you are Serb).
The truth is that this kind of sentiment means very little in geopolitical dynamics.
How do you explain the fact that in 90s, Russia voted in UN to sanction Serbia and Montenegro (Yugoslavia at that time), and Vucic’s Serbia despite all the pressure and the fact that Serbia is currently semi-colonized has top priority (Vucic stressed this many times) not to align with western sanctions policy (which other country in Europe avoided to sanction Russia?).
I explain this as a difference between small country and empire, with no bad feeling towards Russia.
How exactly you see “Serbian nation liberates itself and reassembles territories which historically belong to the Serbian nation”? Which nation being subject of most devastating sanctions, aggression and bombing, color revolution, premier assassination (Zoran Djindjic – I do not have any good opinion about, but was killed after taking firm stand about Kosovo) managed to liberates itself?
Come on, you are dealing with geopolitics on daily basis. Which country managed to do this? Did Libya, or did Iraq. Did Syria and Kazakhstan manage to “liberates itself” and how did they do that? So Serbia should send experts to these two countries for training so we can “liberate ourselves”. Or maybe we do not want to liberate from western occupation after they did to us all above described things?
Serbia is the only semi-colonized country in Europe (perhaps Hungary can be considered. If we were fully colonized, we would not restrain from sanctioning Russia, it is so modern these days. We would not be buying hi-tech weapons from Russia and China, would not let them invest to Serbia. Would not have this strong relationships with Russia as we currently have.
All the time being fully aware of the fact you stated: “*think* that what will happen to Serbia matters to Russia. The truth is that it does not.”
We know that we are being out of the focus of Russian geopolitics currently. Would be insane if we would be. Russia still has many issues to solve in it’s close neighborhood, she will not sacrifice any of it primary interests for Serbia, and Vucic knows it, and Putin knows that Vucic knows. That is why the get along so good. Two countries have very good mutual partnership, I would say Serbia is best Russian partner, just because of mutual respect of each other interests.
And to finish, Serbia is yet to face many problems, and when foreign military next time step on our ground it will not be Russia but NATO. After that we might be liberated by Russia, for the first time in history, but it will not be this Russia and not this Serbia. That is what I believe.
I pray to almighty God to protect both Russian and Serbian people and not to let Serbs the stupidity of 27. Март 1941.
The Serb (non-payed troll)
Ваистину се роди!
Unfortunately, I think President Vucic has made his choice already. He is taking part in the creation of the Greater Albania with the latest Open Balkans initiative which prompted President Putin’s message to Vucic reminding him of the strategic agreements Serbia has with Eurasia. He is building roads for NATO from occupied Kosovo to Bulgaria in order to assist NATO with materiel transfer to future frontlines.
Also, last month the Government of Serbia introduced sanctions to Belarus in order to join the crazies from the EU. This is the second rounds of sanctions with the first one introduced when Belarus forced that plane to land some time ago.
President Vucic also recognised the German-imposed nodding head Her Schmidt as overlord of Bosnia despite the fact that neither Russia or China or more importantly Serbs of Bosnia recognise him. In fact, Vucic is doing everything possible to sow division there which is not hard considering there are already numerous traitors amongst the Serbs there.
Not to mention the small fact President Vucic is running Serbia’s economy into the ground with Serbia’s national debt being 34 billion euros up from 17 billion in 2012 when he and his cabal took power from the previous EU-loving crazies of Serbia.
There are energy shortages caused by incompetent cadre. Ongoing environmental disaster everywhere in Serbia caused by Australian and Chinese mining companies is now being exploited by NATO mainstream media in Serbia.
He is organising a referendum in order to make the Constitution more malleable in order for either him or his successors to be able to recognise the terrorist entity created in Serbia’s Kosovo. Who in their right mind would touch their Constitution when the country is under attack and in such bad shape?
Overall, very bad situation in Serbia and I do pray to God President Vucic comes to his senses before it is too late as Serbia has not strategic depth that some other countries infected by the NATO virus seem to have.
Hello Marko, Ваистину се роди, слава Господу.
So that state about Vucic the traitor is pretty popular in Serbia these days.
I do not see things that way. He’s been betraying Kosovo since 2008 and never manages to finish.
That is why Serbian army was determined to enter Kosovo in September last year like never before and we saw Serbian Air Force flying over Jarinje in obvious demonstration of force which helped very much to de-escalate. This kind of determination to protect Serbian people in Kosovo was not seen ever since 1999.
That is why we see Serbia getting armed and buying arms like never before.
“small fact President Vucic is running Serbia’s economy into the ground” – OK, I already understood that Vucic haters does not mind about facts too much, but this is not fair. Look this article from standard.rs that is mostly oponent to Vucic: https://standard.rs/2022/01/05/za-godinu-dana-u-srbiju-se-vratilo-92-300-mladih-da-li-je-to-najava-novog-trenda/
92300 young people (young only) returned to Serbia, mostly from Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Great Britain. Before Vucic, they were only leaving Serbia.
Serbia is currently regional economical and military power and it is undeniable.
So much about objectiveness of Vucic haters.
I also do not like the law about protection of Cyrilic – Serbian letter being announced and in waiting status for years, the fact that US/UK owned media controls about half of media space in Serbia, but I believe that man has so many tough decisions to make.
The main reason for him having to walk over edge of knife, especially these days is that Serbia (pretty much as Russia) can rely to Serbian economy and Serbian army only. And only that in times that comes.
I believe that we are next. When they break the teeth in Russia’s near neighborhood they will need to ensure Balkan is safe for them, so particularly Montenegro and Bosnia will be points of destabilization and entry towards Serbia. At that particular time Russia will not be able to help.
Let’s hope and prey things go the way you present them. So far the developments are very adverse to Serbia’s core interests.
Thank you, but I believe that you misunderstood me.
Lets pray the things will not go the way I believe it will.
What I think is that when Russia-West antagonism goes a little bit further and borderlines between west and the rest will be drown bolder, they will need to ensure Balkan is safe.
They have means and will, a lot of true 2nd Serbians or Serbians by case (especially Belgrade) to destabilize Serbia.
It will go via destabilization of Montenegro (perhaps Bosnia, but Montenegro is better tip as it is more flammable). What they need is unrest.
It may sound as blasphemy, but latest protests against Rio Tinto are good test (that’s why it was over so quickly – Vucic can not afford any kind of unrest in current environment).
Not that I support Rio Tinto, I hate the idea of my country’s land being devastated for global corporations interests, as a matter of fact for any reason.
But I think that Serbian state and society is fragile, and literally any kind of unrest can be taken to where west want/need.
Vucic is and will be obstacle in that process of destabilization of Serbia, but Vucic/Serbia just does not have arguments good enough for the next circle of geopolitical games.
So in a difference of Kazakhstan that got Russian solders, what we will get is NATO solders. Perhaps division of country – Vojvodina, Raska.
That is how I see short term fate of Serbia.
Long term fate depends of further dynamics of west against the rest.
Apologize for off-topic once again, if it is off-topic.
I meant let’s hope the things in general are the way you present them with a booming economy and hope President Vucic is the way you claim. I honestly wish I am wrong.
In regards to your claims what Russia can and cannot do: let’s wait. On another site Larch provided a link of the map of Kazakhstan superimposed over the map of Europe. Russia is able to help everyone who is willing to help themselves. If you start from the premise that it is not worth resisting, no-one can help you.
Agree 100% Марко. Помаже Бог.
The Serb, Serbia can be proud that you presented your case in such a reasonable and intelligent manner, thank you for the information.
Thank you archeon.
I don’t think young people returning to these parts has much to do with the government policies. Many have returned simply because they lost the opportunity to work abroad, due to lockdowns.
When they go abroad it is because Serbia is bed place to live and West is great place to live. But when they come back in large numbers it is not because Serbia became a good place to be, nor because standard has grown, or government is more liberal and more supporting for people.
That reality actually does not exist, never mind we see it all around us all the time. No new hi-ways, no traveling infrastructure, no construction sector rising, no tourism expanding, no IT industry. When you walk around in Belgrade, Novi Sad, Nis, Kragujevac, Vrnjacka Banja, Zlatibor, Subotica … it is exactly the same as it was looking 20 years ago.
People are coming back “simply because they lost the opportunity to work abroad”. Oh, and why is that? I forgot, it is because Serbia (its government) is bad.
There is something deep, deep wrong with this kind of mentality. I believe it is also present in Russia.
It is extremely strong narrative, present very much in Serbian media owned by western companies and on social networks.
If one watch N1 for some extended time, one could get impression the only thing they have in focus is how bad current Serbian government is. This line is going trough all the content whatever it is.
So if average person watch western-founded N1 and if that average person know what western agenda was and still is on the Balkan, wouldn’t it be normal for that average person to conclude: “Hey, if they hate Vucic and his government that much, there must be something OK he is doing.”
Like building national economy relying to both east and west. Or building armed forces relying on both east and west but mostly on domestic arms industry which is growing fantastically.
Or smartly agitating in cooperation with Russia with so many countries to withdraw recognition of so-called Kosovo state. And drawing bold red lines in negotiation process with Pristina, and presenting clearly by military force actions that Serbia will not tolerate any more attacks of Serbian community.
Or buying further time, because Serbia is getting stronger and west is getting weaker.
And being realistic enough all this time, knowing Serbia could never confront west on Balkan without someone very strong keeping its back (didn’t we try more than once? recently?) and we know how does it end, so are not that stupid to go that way again.
And all of this in complete understanding and harmony with Russian government, because, look, by some miracle in past few decades Russia’s interests on Balkan perfectly matched that approach.
Russia had so much of it own issues to resolve at home and in close neighborhood to be able to pay attention to some orthodox Serbian brothers separated from them by some NATO countries (how many times Russia confirmed support to Serbian EU integrations – thanks God will never happen).
Russia does not even like to be remembered of Serbia (many important things about Serbia being completely ignored in Russian media and recent history especially) because it is a kind of shame. Yes, in many ways we are what Russians should be shamed when they look at.
Russia is currently strong enough to confront west, and that is becoming pretty clear. But it had not yet resolved it’s internal spiritual issues, not have clearly found it’s Orthodox Christian imperial identity.
I do not have enough info about current state in Russia on this matter but it is something very important and without that small thing I doubt she will be able to continue in right direction.
And yes, I started reply addressing that ауто-шовинизам.
What happened between Russia and Serbia in 21. Century will be revealed only after opening documents that Gorbachev and Bush signed near Malta, on board the Soviet cruise ship Maksim Gorkiy, during stormy night on December 2–3, 1989. Yes, the same night when Russia was given verbal promise about NATO (non)expansion.
Following events suggests that Yugoslavia/Serbia status changed from Yalta 50:50 influence to, Malta, maybe, 90:10 in favor of Anglos.
West rushed in and pushed out Russian interests even more, leaving it at bare minimum.
Pure, uneducated guess, but explains why Russia couldn’t help Serbs more. It was, and still is, legaly bind not to do so. At least until the end of next (hopefully cold) war.
( I know, am pushing my luck, risking to trigger both Andreis the same day, but … I can’t help it. :)
Oops. Brain-fart. Should be “both Andrei & Dimitri”.
Too much coffee, too little sleep, i guess.
With oil, gas, gold, potash….and 18-20 million people, ….. geographically the bridge between China, and Russ Europe.
There is absolutely absolutely no reason for it to be a poor shithole.
Agree with the Saker and Orlov. I would add that the dramatic increase in the price of LPG may have been deliberate and to serve as the fuse for the attempted color revolution – highjack a legitimate grievance and then use it to embolden anyone who has an ax to grind while employing snipers and thugs against the police to trigger a harsh response.As pointed by many, clan rivalries and western corporations had a hand in this as well as the usual western suspects.
This effort failed for many reasons but I think one in particularly was that it was rushed in an attempt to create a favorable negotiating position for US/NATO. Agreed that the Russians were fully aware of the plans and would have handled it just as adroitly as they just did no matter when the West pulled the trigger. Bravo Russia.
Talking about price increase, in Sweden the price of electricity shot up 600pct.
I have enjoyed this site for some time now. My go to for world geopolitics outside the small pond I live in.
Often wonder whether the kinetic interpretation of military / tactical over look the possibility for informational interventions available to the annoyed Bear. There is a lot suggestions the Russians knew in advance what was going to happen – surely this implies they have good sources of obtaining data.
Lets not just focus on KZ – what about the Ukraine, Maidan and Nuland debacle. Is it feasible the intelligence apparatus have juicy facts of information about MH17 , Syria, 911, plandemic etc that find its way into the public area.
That would be like lighting a fire in dry , hot and windy conditions in some of the countries which are fueling unrest aboard and at home.
There is significant distrust in governments around the world at present and discontent could boil over or require resources to be diverted. Nice judo move me thinks.
The Russian 45th Guards Separate Special Forces Brigade, 98th Guards Airborne Division and 31st Guards Airborne Assault Brigade have yet to be tested against the mighty “Defenders of DC” who bravely risked their lives on 6 January 2021 fighting fiercely violent terrorists disguised as peaceful protestors. But before that contest to end all contests commences, the color-revolutionaries will merely have to satisfy themselves with burning down police stations and car dealerships in the Empowerment Zones of the poorest and weakest fUSA cities, such as Baltimore and Chicago.
Just a note that may be relevant for where to go from here. What Western investors wanted most from Central Asia was its natural-resource wealth. The authors describe how U.S., World Bank and NGO advisors imposed contracts favouring the interests of Western oil and mining companies. Chevron set its eyes on the vast oil reserves in Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field. What Kazakhstan wanted was Western expertise as contractor and minority investor. But Chevron wanted control – and to leave the host-country government with as little revenue as possible from the sale of its oil.
The result was one of the world’s most predatory oil contracts – nothing like what Kazakhstan thought it was to get, but a bonanza for Chevron. The contract promised that the government would receive 80% of production, reflecting the normal 80%/20% production-sharing agreements for European and Middle Eastern countries. However, the authors describe, Kazakhstan ended up with only 2% of the project’s revenue. Corporate lawyers drew up a contract obliging Kazakhstan’s government not to receive any profits at all until it had borne the immense costs of developing the oil field itself (borrowing from the IMF) and met a long-term production target – by which time nearly a quarter of the Tengiz oil reserves would be emptied out and sold.
Chevron’s operation proved to be as disastrous an ecological horror story as it had caused in Ecuador. It was fined $303 million for violating environmental protection laws, but pressured President Nazarbayev to repeal the fine to show the world how ‘investor-friendly’ Kazakhstan was! When popular opposition arose to demand a fair contract, international investors, the response by international investors and Western government officials and their front men at the IMF, World Bank and USAID was to claim that renegotiation would violate the rule of law and sanctity of contracts.
Why not start to kick out the US companies or fine them under Kazakh law? (Talking about asymmetrical warfare …)
Thank you so much for adding your insight, especially on a topic I am wholly incompetent to discuss.
And yes, US companies will now run in a wall of problems, and they will give hell to Langley for messing it all up.
Again, I can hear the sobbing from northern Virginia from faraway Florida :-)
“the authors describe, Kazakhstan ended up with only 2% of the project’s revenue. Corporate lawyers drew up a contract obliging Kazakhstan’s government not to receive any profits at all until it had borne the immense costs of developing the oil field itself (borrowing from the IMF) and met a long-term production target – by which time nearly a quarter of the Tengiz oil reserves would be emptied out and sold.”
A company normally finds the oil and profits from the reserves under government supervision and laws. It makes no sense for the government to develop the fields and just give all the profits to the company until some 25% of the reserves are spent. If that’s the way it is, it’s not good for Chevron long term because eventually good sense will reject this arrangement and Chevron would lose its position there (for an exploitation worse than the kind of exploitation that gets oil companies kicked out of developing countries).
I was looking at the weekly review of another site (sorry for mentioning it, but it’s the sole purpose to reference an intersting source of info, it’s Moon of Alabama).
There I found an interesting reference to a Greg Palast article, speaking about the bribes paid by BP and EXXON to the Kazak ruling clan (Nazarbaev clan), and the acquaintance received by US justice, because the bribing procured a relevant oil contract to US. More details in the original, I don’t want to post the link, it’s easy to find. So, if they got to pay only 2% to the state it’s only because there was a lot of M$ paid to relevant state representatives. The reporter says that when he questioned this with Kazakhs, he had to leave the country asap.
About the timing of this attempted coup, and the denial of intervention by US (“excusatio non petita”, aka explanation not requested invokes…), there’s an Hal Turner interesting reference to US Gouvernment financial allocations (the ones of you who are familiar with searching US gov sites could check, please?)
In my opinion, Kazakhstan was the big piece of meal here.
EU is discussing now about including nuclear energy in the rank of clean energies. Being able to subjugate a country who’s one of the main uranium producers in the world, would give the advantage to subtract the raw material to russian availability, damage the RF nuclear industry, and control the potential 2nd main source of energy for EU. And all of this to be marketed in US$… Bingo!
The decision of building US bases in middle Asia was already repelled by “stans” govs in the past. Leaving Afghanistan so fast, and abandoning 80 B$ arms in afghan area is only the buildup of a large depot ready for reuse for future friends (to be recruited/trained in that area).
SO, US disappointment is more than justified…
My 2 cents:
Russians smelled from far all of this buildup on their South border, and proposed the non-ultimatum before the US game could continue for longtime, and approach well organized results.
But wait . . . there’s more!
Dec 16, 2021.
The US Embassy in Kazakhstan issues a travel warning for major Kazakh cities because of “upcoming demonstrations and warns of possible riots and mass arrests.
We know this, and what the level of detail was. It wasn’t a warning, just a set of instructions.
Best write up on the Kazakh sit… I have seen todate… hilariously funny too.. enjoyed every line…
And I agree, Putin and his team are just incredibly able at this. Thank God for Putin, for his good team and for Russia… but Putin first, it all starts with the head.. if the head is good all is good, if the head is rotten all is rotten.. so again THANK GOD FOR PUTIN…
The biggest question which I have on Kazakhstan is: Why did the authorities essentially instantly-double prices for LPG at gas stations (from 60 tenge ($0.14) to 120 tenge ($0.28) per liter). Common people in any country would riot (with varying degrees of riot) if that were to happen to them. It would be much more prudent to trickle-out the changes over a year or so. Instant-doubling makes no sense, from a governing perspective…
Given the above, one hypothesis is that the doubling was a planned ‘ignition’ for the riots to spring-out. Also given that the decision to do this came from within the Kazakhstan government, the question of an ‘operative’ within the government must be considered. But from which side?
On the one hand, instant-doubling – and the resultant riots – makes perfect cover for a pre-planned “color revolution” gambit. Logical. This makes the pertinent government official(s) either traitors or patsies. Who did the initial ‘suggestions’ for this doubling?
On the other hand, the Kazakh and Russian intelligence services are not dumb. They had to have seen both the impending doubling of prices (with probable consequences) and the closet preparations for yet-another “color revolution.” As Saker notes, the Russians (technically, CSTO) may have used this info-advantage to ultimately obtain ‘concessions’ from President Tokaev. Subtle, if so.
It appears that Putin & Co. may have found a way-around the ‘Catch 22’ of “Damned if you do (move), and damned if you don’t.” Clever…
The key question that I have been wondering about, as well. Who instigated the extreme price rise? My feeling, given the arrests of Kazak officlas is that it may have been traitors in the government to signal the kick start of the disturbances.
Браво – блестящий анализ! Все точно, верно и “в десятку”. Сложилось впечатление, что вы на заседаниях Совета безопасности России были, присутствовали. )))
Относительно участи территории 404 – то есть Укры, которая б/У. ))).
С вашим умом и опытом вы безусловно знаете – судьба экс-УССР была предрешена давно. Ее судьбу не раз озвучивал, но кратко, товарищ-господин Президент и Верхоглавк, мол, территориальная целостность У_р_ины отвечает национальным интересам России. Добавьте к этому внеблоковый статус с федеративной формой государственного устройства и все сложится. Коль спровоцируют – в момент “принудим к миру”, обустроим. )))
России без локальных войн до 2025-го бы дотянуть… доПосейдонить – когда будет абсолютное превосходство во всех сферах/доменах, тогда уж в “угрожающий период” и “упреждающий”/превентивный ракетно-ядерный “удар в назначенное время” можно наносить… совместно с “неприемлемым ущербом”. Предварительно “выключив” противнику “свет”, т.е. отключив/подавив РЭБ-ом предупреждение,связь, управление, навигацию, локацию, позиционирование … и электроэнергию. )))
Думаю, до 2030-го дождемся выполнения этого пункта закрытой части Военной доктрины России.
Хотя готовы мы давно, нам нужен только повод … для одержания (гарантированной!) Победы.
PS С учетом возвратного потенциала мы обогнали США по части СЯО уж давно (Ярсы с Булавами несут по 6 ББ, БДРМ РСМ-54″Синева”, ОКР “Лайнер” – по 10 !). А в ТЯО мы всегда опережали – сегодня раз в 15-ть, может боле.
Про отсутствие у противника современной системы ПВО/ПРО/ВКО – известно, про отсутствие современного РЭБ – тоже… и так во всем у США. Из носителей в СЯС лишь подводный флот и тот ладан дышит совместно с арсеналом, да ШПУ с винтажным МБР.
Так что, к стеклованию Североамериканского материка с Западным мысом Евразии (хотя мы НАТО никогда всерьез и не воспринимали))) – готовы !
PS Ну а конфликты нам на радость – учеба, опыт, доработка … и поражение врага !
Парни, парни, это в наших силах
Землю от пожара уберечь.
Мы за мир, за дружбу,
За улыбки милых,
За сердечность встреч.
Поздравляю всех с наступающим Русским Новым годом и всеми последующим Русскими годами !
Победа точно будет за нами :-)
Как всегда за последние 1000 лет.
Спасибо за добрые слова.
This is the most awesome reading I came across!
My heart just feel with so much joy to learn these awesome news.
The intelligence of the most awesome leader in this world does not stop to impressed me ! I dearly love VLADIMIROVICH Vladimir and the Russian federation.
I am so ashamed by the lack of intelligence and ethics of the west, I see them as 7 year old permanent retarded morons selling their mothers for money and their own people!
This venue made by Andrei and all the great real JURNALIST I respect 500%
Thanks to all of you for making this posible for all of us to learn and read the real news !
The Biden Family was linked with the kazakh Security chief, just arrested for treason, according to this story.
This is huge !
Massimov is half Uighur or more, and Tajik
Former Ambassador and retired career Indian Foreign Service (IFS) officer MK Bhadrakumar has written an interesting post on Jan 9th focusing on the US controlled/finance/sponsored biological labs/research facilities in Kazakhstan.
In the post, Amb. Bhadrakumar refers to an October 2018 statement by the Russian Defense Ministry about US controlled/owned/sponsored biological labs and research facilities in Central Asian countries.
Fast forward to October 2021, and the Foreign Ministers of the RF and PRC issued what I thought was a rather unusual Joint Statement (these are UNSC P5 members, after all) on the subject – “Joint Statement by the Foreign Ministers of the People’s Republic of China and the Russia Federation on Strengthening the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction” (10/7/21):
A key paragraph in the Joint Statement stated that:
“In this context they emphasize that the United States’ and its allies’ overseas military biological activities (over 200 US biological laboratories are deployed outside its national territory, which function in opaque and non-transparent manner) cause serious concerns and questions among the international community over its compliance with the BWC. The two sides share the view that such activities pose serious risks for the national security of the Russian Federation and China, and are detrimental to the security of relevant regions. The Russian Federation and China further note that the United States’ and its allies’ military biological activities on their national territory also cause serious compliance concerns.”
As MKB concludes, “The mandate for Russian forces is to protect “strategic assets”. Presumably, such assets include the Pentagon-funded labs in Kazakhstan.”
I wonder what they will find in the labs/research facilities.
Exactly. It took them three years to react to the report of the Ministry of Defense in the form of a Joint statement document :)). We are waiting for a move in Georgia as well.
There were some inspections of those labs in 2021.
Dear Saker, I disagree with you only in one thing: your assessment of Vucic/Serbia. You should take this into account: Serbia was the only country which Russia delivered S-400 (under Vucic and as an example what are they capable of doing behind enemy lines), and in the heart of Nato, without anyone knowing until it was fully operational and deployed. I remember what shock and chaos in Nato that move caused since S-400 radars covered most of Europe. And speaking of 1997 Nato positions in ultimatum announced by Russia, you will easily see which borders of Nato Russia had in mind. Serbia is strategic partner of Russia as always has been, Hungary’s Orban is also on the same page with Putin, and Czechs were served their portion of Russian kindness. So having in mind recent role of Greece’s port of Alexandropoulos in Nato’s movement of military equipment and remarks made by Russia on the subject, I’m pretty sure Russia can use this line of countries and declare them as her sphere of influence with which it could resolve the issues of Romanian base (Mk-41) and traitor Bulgarians who had their share of guilt in stopping the South stream. Only if they could make Poland bow down, another great treat posed by Nato base capable of deployment of Mk-41 launchers would be gone for good. So I would like if you would take these remarks into consideration regarding your analysis. Best regards
You must be a geopolitical analysts . Can I ask you what do you mean by traitor Bulgaria?
No, unfortunatelly I’m not, and I’m not trying to be one. It should be well known to anyone with even basic knowlege of history what were the historical moves Bulgarians took against Russian/Serbian interests. They are recognized as western puppets for very long time already. That”s why I called them traitors. Despite being Orthodox Christians, they mostly sided with western interests against their Orthodox brothers.
На три страницы наберется, коль начинать с присяги верности Третьему Рейху и прерваться на Южном потоке.
Three pages will be typed if you start with the oath of allegiance to the Third Reich and interrupt on the South Stream.
You should take this into account: Serbia was the only country which Russia delivered S-400
Which according to the Vucic fanboys posting here is yet another proof that Russia is evil and wants to backstab Serbia.
I would ask what Serbia could sell to Russia as a sign of reciprocity and support for Russia?
or maybe Vucic can support EU “sanctions from hell” and refuse to sell us frozen cevapcici?
That would teach the evil Russians a much needed lesson I suppose :-)
FYI – Russia also delivered S-400s to Turkey, Belarus, China and India.
Who ever said that Russia wants to backstab Serbia or vice versa? Or for that matter, that Vucic would do something like that or to impose sanctions against Russia? We Serbs would tear him appart immediatelly, regardles of how much we support his current policies trying to balance investments in our economy in order to prevent west from taking another aim at Serbia. Vucic publicly stated countless times that Serbia for as long as he is the President will NEVER IMPOSE ANY SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA. We see much better than you what’s going on economically in Serbia and how things are changing for the better, with all due respect. We sold entire energy sector to Russia (NIS, PETROHEMIA, etc), we built Turk stream all 400km thru Serbia, Russia is rebuilding our railroad network throughout Serbia, Serbia is buying a LOT of Russian weapons, our army is now completelly rebuilt and re-equiped including MIG 29s, Pantsir, Krasukha, Kornets etc. Also Putin and Vucic have great personal relations. Regarding S400, we still haven’t bought it, I sad Russia delivered it to Serbia, and for free, and only for military excercise but as a show to Nato that Russia has true ally in the heart of Nato puppet surroundings, and if Putin thinks Vucic is western stoogie do you really think he would make such move? Vucic is rebuilding national pride, only President speaking about genocide against Serbian people in WW2 by NDH and doing so much to change the narrative and mindset that western decades-long brainwashing caused to our national consciousness, He is the only President who erected monuments to Romanovs and many other Russians as a sign of thankfullness and respect. So rest assured that Serbian people would NEVER let any President do the following : hurt Russia or recognize Kosove. He would hang from lamp post on Republic Square in less than 24h, and every single person in Serbia knows that, politicians especially.
Dear Tony ,
I have noticed a certain trend that a few people from Serbia , tend to go over their heads to pledge aligiance to Russia and compare the other “traitors” around them . While I am sure most of the serb population is pro-Russia I can assure you that this is the rule for every one of the Orthodox Blakan countries. Trying to paint yourself white while blackening others is not very noble. Also , Serbia as well us Bulgaria has Satrap ruling class bowing to the West. In your future writings I suggest to separate ordinary people from their Western Installed elite. Otherwise we are just creating unneccessary tension between brotherly people.
We must transcend our timid regional view.
I hope you understand my bad English.
Dear brother, of course we have nothing against Bulgarian peoole, but, if we go back in the past you will admit that Bulgaria sided with Austo-Hungary, Turkey and Germany and attacked Serbia. So it was against Orthodox brothers interests. If we skip all other such moves, from recent past Bulgaria joined Nato in 2006, in order to help US destroy more countries and peoples lives. Then Bulgaria alone prevented Russian South stream pipeline despite pledging to participate. So another backstab against Orthodox brothers interests. And have in mind that Serbia never attacked anyone and has always fought defensive wars, never commited agression against any nation.
Please – Year 1885.
About southstream – it is not like that we build a monument to the guy that signed the cancelation . One or two months later he was toppled by nation wide protests and he is done for. Not that changed anything( we are in EU and NATO so you get the picture) of course.
One interesting thing – In my town Plovdiv (2nd biggest) there is a HUGE statue of the Soviet Soldier. Since 1990s the elites want to demolish it. Yet for the same reason yours are afraid to recognize Kosovo , ours are afraid to do that ! (Kosovo is Serbia!)
Lets try to be better people and not judge large groups of human beings.
Have a happy new year brate!
Bulgaria recognized Kosovo in 2008. So one more thing in addition to forementioned facts and arguments. I know Bulgarians don’t support it but you let your political elites to get away with so many wrongdoings towards your brothers that it could be dismissed as accident, it became a rule. So maybe you should choose your representatives more carefully. I still feel love for Bulgarian people and have many friends amongst them but enough should be eventually enough. So many bad things done against our interests despite this:
Happy New Year my Bulgarian brother, all the best wishes to you, your family and loved ones.
I’m extremely surprised so few know that Putin talked with all the players PRIOR to New years. Here, you can consult the event list yourself, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/page/2
Of course, that’s the official list for public consumption. The Outlaw US Empire’s Kazakh Embassy signaled the sleeper cells in mid-December to get ready to use the impeding fuel price increase as cover for their op. That and other signals were likely intercepted and CSTO thus informed. I called it a trap as soon as it happened. And the timing was also premeditated once the timing for the security meetings was known. So, the entire affair is even a greater coup for Putin than you describe.
@karkof1, Lavrov said, long ago…”it doesn’t matter what they try, we will know before it happens”, while speaking of US NATO. The Western flank manouvers were a Russian ruse, put players in motion, many players, shuffled enough shells which had the NATO US looking in wrong direction.
As soon as one looks at the Kazak visitors that went to the Kremlin in Dec, you just know from the shear speed of the deployment….the Russians were not only on it, they’d set a trap.
It is good that the truth about Serbian dictator Vucic slowly but surely becomes known in spite of all propagandist efforts.
Yes, Vucic is a traitor.
Yes, Vucic works for NATO and against Russia.
Yes, his main adviser is war criminal Tony Blair.
God willing, maybe one day the Republika Srpska will liberate Serbia from its current comprador regime and maybe one day the LDNR will one day liberate the Ukraine from its Banderites.
So it looks for uninformed public.
Thank you, Saker, for such a monumental elucidation of the latest F.U.B.A.R. against Russia by Western, ahem…”intel.”
Close, but no cigar.
The entire exercise was one of “active defense,” a core concept in current Russian military strategy. Allowing the Kazakh governmental structure to almost desintegrate, is the military equivalent of letting the enemy in, which Russia has applied successfully against many invaders, as you well know. The Kazakh SOS was expected, the rapid reaction was already planned, with troops ready to go, planes already warming up.
Yet another masterstroke of Master Putin.
Look forward to see what would the “military-technical” thingy after the…”negotiations?”
Bullies and thugs are tough until confronted by professionals. Ask any Police Officer. Then understand what the bully’s experience when confronted by paratroopers on a mission. Terrorists killing civilian men and raping woman is their life style. But dying by the thousands in their dirty underwear is, “Paratrooper Justice.’ Today Kazakhstan tomorrow Ukraine next month 1997 boarders or no NATO. Its all that serious and dangerous.
It ain’t over until the Fat Empire sings!’
On the one hand, poor governance makes these countries e.g. Kazakhstan vulnerable to foreign sponsored insurrection. On the other hand it’s not in Russia’s interest to micromanage. It’s a difficult balancing act for Russia. Are there ways apart from micromanaging that Russia can help or encourage these countries to improve their governance so as to reduce risks for their governments and for Russia?
Judging from the statements made by US and Russian officials you could be forgiven for thinking that they are talking about totally different things.
Looks like the meetings will just be for the sake of appearances. The real bargaining is likely going on elsewhere, e.g. KZ???
The biggest losers could turn out to be the EU atlanticists. The US could just dump them and make its own deal with Russia.
Either way, the Empire is over. All that we need now is a memorable event that we can point to and say that was when it ended.
“All that we need now is a memorable event that we can point to and say that was when it ended.” — my popcorn is already warming up in the microwave.
Out of this next series of events we will (the world effectively) decide whether the next epoch is run by stable and somewhat effective governments of peoples, by peoples grounded in their local law-based based commonwealth policies; or whether by a ratbag ‘confederation’ of transnational piracy (e.g., “Pirates of the Caribbean” and THEIR guidelines) that seek weak-government and neofeudal rules-based colonial exploitation and a free-ride by the likes of Chevron etc.
It seems we are at the tipping point (of the tipping point — there is a word for this, but no longer in the memory). While there may be no ‘facts’ in the general policy miasma, there are facts on the ground — and it is this cold hard reality for which Miss-Wokeistan has no answer. I await, like many others, this “memorable event” gift-wrapped in Moscow and Beijing. Here’s to the end of faux ‘exceptionalist’ empire and a brand-new day of national interests working out their various rational commonwealth policies in the UN etc.
The end of the Empire will come in the period 2025-2030, if it starts preparing for war.
And so let him suffer while dying, it is beneficial for everyone – tk. single economic system and still remains the main world reserve currency
“So in plain English, the SVR/FSB/GRU will now have a free hand to “clean house” the same way the Russians “cleaned house” around Lukashenko and Assad (in this case with Iranian help): quietly and very effectively,”
Sounds like pest exterminator’s AD. Maybe Russia should offer this service internationally. Seriously, many countries would give arm and leg in concessions to have house cleaned.
This article coincided with my afterthought about the events in Hong Kong.
With new light shading on comparable events, the riots took place in Hong Kong were actually a well planned trap. Chairman Mao had a phrase coined for it: ‘ to lure the snake out of its nest’. China simply let the pro-Western forces, opportunists, and rebels hidden in the Hong Kong Government play out their game.
In retrospect, China, with its long history of spy wars with the KMT, Japanese and US, could not have no informat in the ‘pan-democractic parties’, especially there were no shortage of opportunists betting on both sides. That is, China must have known every step the British and the US were doing before the 2014 Occupy Central riot and later 2019 Anti-extradiction riot. The violence took place shook many Hong Kong sympathiers and changed their mind.
The 2014 the Hong Kong rioters attacked Mandarin-speaking tourists which made Chinese netizens had a bad feeling about Hong Kong. In one stroke, Hong Kong had lost its position to influence China cyberspace. Voicing Hong Kong ‘self-determination’ (a disguise for independence) meant that storyline of ‘fighting for democracy in China’ (since 89 Tiananmen) was aborted.
With the national security laws in place in 2020, the whole Hong Kong society was back in the firm hands of China. Moreover, modifying the economic structure of Hong Kong will not be opposed. With firm control, Hong Kong is becoming an alternative for the homing of delisted companies from the US.
And in the whole process, the PLA was never used because the police force was in firm control from China.
What about the US military base in Kazakhstan? Now gone?
There seems to be one in Kyrgyzstan, but not in Kazachstan.
Thanks for clarifying this.
There is nowhere and will not be. In Kyrgyzstan, in 2014, Manas was closed for the United States, in Kyrgyzstan there is the Kant airbase of the Russian Armed Forces.
Andrei, is there any way you could share your thoughts on the facts on the ground in Kazakhstan when it comes to the real and righteous grievances of the people? Which is also partly true for Russia, especially outside the urban centers.
KZ may have been stabilized for now but the breeding ground for further color revolutions hardly.
Btw the screams for joining NATO in Sweden is picking up steam again. KD (Christdemocrats) – the party run by a woman that has been going to court to drive an old senile man out of his house, is now demanding that Sweden joins NATO. It has been a very long time since the right-wing parties have been calling for a NATO membership. So maybe they get it this time and Russia loses Sweden and Sweden loses Russia.
Regarding the level of rot among the ruling classes in Sweden: the man changed his mind about selling the house and wanted to recall the contract but this Lady McBeth just had to have the house so the case went to court and they settled. But hey a neoliberal will kill their poor mothers if necessary.
Thanks Andrei for the excellent summary of a stunning last week. After Kabul, it could be the straw breaking the Empire’s prestige among die-hards who see it as suzerain.
Maps are key adjuncts.
The above map is excellent reminder of some VIP facts.
– Turkey since last war of Nagorno-Karabach has a direct border with KZ – via Azerbaijan (and land taken from Armenia) and Baku-Aktau across the Caspian Sea. Hence criticality of Turkey as part of coalition behind the coup attempt and for logistics.
– Uzbekistan’s (UZ) Ferghana valley, training ground for AZ extremists, is located only 230 km from KZ and 185 km from Xinjiang.. UZ actually has a direct border with KZ. UZ under Islam Karimov played some of most aggressive multi-vector policies, since improved some. Nevertheless, life should become very interesting for UZ shortly, if it refuses to read writing on the wall and extract itself from Empire’s embrace.
– The locus for “cleaning house” may center on Almaty, located only 300 km from Chinese border. It is part of region with most Uyghur minority, maybe half who migrated from China since 1960s. The arrested former PM Massimov is apparently part-Uyghur, and was photographed with Biden and Son, and was key hope for Empire; recall Al Baghdadi photo with McCain in Syria, just before ISIS rolled out – photo with same vibes and implications! The loss of KZ and erasure of long-term plans is an absolute calamity for AZ Empire and a huge victory for multiparity and peace. I suspect many of the Uyghurs trained in Syria and Iraq and transported to Afghan were meant for KZ and eventual infiltration into China.
– the rabidly Russophobic Bolsheviks apparently created borders with the same malicious gusto as the British in ALL former USSR territories, so that at dissolution they would remain weak and ripe for external manipulation. The same demonic claws shaped Zionism and Bolshevism. Up to now, there are significant minority pockets within each CA state which can be triggered. Into the far future, certain regions will remain insular and tribal. Redrawing borders congruent to real clan distributions would benefit the long-term stability of all.
Last, what to do about the pink elephants in the room? The Israelis manning the operations room in Almaty (alongside UKUS and Turks) and the GCC pay-masters / indoctrinating capos? This KZ aggression was a concerted group effort by Empire and its key vassals..
……Redrawing borders congruent to real clan distributions would benefit the long-term stability of all……
Partialy, but in my opinion, it is best to “help” the Uzbeks to create an Uzbek “Central Asian republic” that will be controlled by Russia. If the clans are in a “controlled conflict”, or “ethnic groups” such as the Karalpaks, Turkmen, Kyrgyz or Kazakhs from the Turkestan region with Uzbeks majority … then it is a win-win combination for Russia. There is also the traditional hostility of the Tajik state and the Uzbek state. Something like Armenia-Azerbaijan. But first, the Azeris will have to be weakened(Talish rights f.e) and shortened, not by Russia, but by Iran.
While much of your comment is correct, even Armenia did not recognise Nagorno-Karabach, even though they had decades to do so.
On January 09, 2022 · at 6:51 pm EST/EDT, Vera asked, “Is there any chance that any of this will have a positive fallout for ordinary Kazachs (of all ethnicities) or will it be more of the usual corruption and economic immiseration?”
Yes, there’s a good chance that Kazakhstan’s future will be bright. The BRI will bring riches, if Tokayev cleans house enough to prevent the benefits from being stolen.
The Zionist-Capitalist world order never imagined in its worst dream the kind of response Russia gave in KZS.
I was always a bit skeptical about appropriateness of Russian response in the eastern part of Ukraine 2014 onwards – I felt ‘something’ more should have been done to attain adequacy.
Now in 2022, Russia gave a fitting reply in Kazakhstan – it’s a flawless operation. I agree to every bit of analysis presented by Saker here. Playing every Security Council P5 member against other members to get the so-called FDI and cheap energy and other benefits (while stashing away a huge cutmoney in western banks) has been a favourite pastime for ALL ex-Soviet states’ ruling clique. Other than kicking the ass of those imbeciles, nothing can be repaired.
Printed above in red ink: “the West have confidently waltzed into a carefully laid Russian trap”.
Some writers go even further: they claim that Putin only pretended to mass Russia’s forces near Ukraine. They say Putin did this deliberately to increase NATZO’s belief that Russia will invade Ukraine; but secretly, while NATZO military were posturing in the Ukraine and around the Black Sea, Putin was assembling secret Russian forces to counter a CIA/MI6 “ISIS” style takeover of Kazakhstan — which Russian MI could see coming. With hindsight, it is significant that Khazak president Tokayev went to a special meeting with Putin already some months ago.
And the Russian “liberal intelligentsia” can be found, as always, on the other side of the front:
“Kasparov accused Pashinyan of killing peaceful Kazakhs”
“The crisis in Kazakhstan led Russian liberals to the Turkish camp”
“Expert: Opponents of deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Kazakhstan spit upon the law”
etc., etc. …
The old saying still applies: The main enemy is in one’s own country…
The English have their own saying “the working man is his own worst enemy.” Ie doff their caps to the lord of the manor. Vote for conservative big money political parties. Gently lower the forehead to the fat man in a fancy suite.
But yes, you are 100% correct the enemy is within the country. Evil knows who to flatter and manipulate the loser. Small money for beers and extras. Too much money and they get frightened. Then whisper sweet nothing in their ears. Why drink beer when you can have champagne.
Don’t expect Erdogan (and Aliev) to learn anything from this though, he will keep trying to resurrect the stone dead ottoman empire even if the realities of the 21:th century keeps biting his @ss and hitting his head.
First these two medieval clowns said that Putin was committing a mistake with the ultimatum and then again in Kazakhstan, no they say nothing.
Saker, i think i know how they funded the insurrection:
Kenges Rakishev (standing next to Hunter Biden in the famous photo with Massimov and Joe Biden) was involved in a crypto scam with Sirin Labs (startup with ties to Israeli intelligence). They scammed tens of millions of $ from investors.
Here is a fuller report on what President Putin is saying at the CSTO summit – note this is taking place at the same time as the talks in Geneva:
“…’Maidan methods’ have been resorted to in Kazakhstan, with the country facing a genuine threat to Its statethood, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated at a video conference of the heads of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). He warned that what started as peaceful protests against higher gas prices and quickly escalated into violent riots and acts of terrorism was not the first and would not be the last attempt to meddle in the region from abroad……”
A little dig at the US & Ukraine there……
11:45 Мск http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67568
Московская область, Ново-Огарёво
Сессия Совета коллективной безопасности ОДКБ
Владимир Путин принял участие во внеочередной сессии Совета коллективной безопасности Организации Договора о коллективной безопасности.
Встреча, посвящённая ситуации в Казахстане и мерам по её нормализации, прошла в режиме видеоконференции под председательством Республики Армения.
В заседании также приняли участие Премьер-министр Армении Никол Пашинян, Президент Белоруссии Александр Лукашенко, Президент Казахстана Касым-Жомарт Токаев, премьер-министр Киргизии Акылбек Жапаров, Президент Таджикистана Эмомали Рахмон и Генеральный секретарь Организации Договора о коллективной безопасности Станислав Зась.
* * *
Moscow region, Novo-Ogarevo
Session of the CSTO Collective Security Council
Vladimir Putin took part in an extraordinary session of the Collective Security Council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
The meeting on the situation in Kazakhstan and measures to normalize it was held in a videoconference mode under the chairmanship of the Republic of Armenia.
The meeting was also attended by Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan Akylbek Zhaparov, President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon and Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization Stanislav Zas.
* * *
link to site … mod
Russia allowed the protests to reach critical mass so that all the fifth columnist and traitors will clearly show themselves. They have now been identified and action is being taken to purge them.
Can you kindly enlighten on the biological labs run by Anglo types in kazakstan. Shouldn’t the Russian forces stay behind and take over these labs or close them…
There is no bacteriological hazard – it has been checked and monitored along the entire perimeter of the Russian Federation.
Only delivery is possible.
Great article and plenty of food for thought.
“Dear friends, Christ is born! Glorify Him!”
Just like, say, Bolivians who have not contributed anything remarkably divine in the area of religion, could you believe that Jews have not either? One true line only: one in a billion Christians and none here, in all likelihood, has gone through every single one of the New Testament citations of the O.T., that purport to prove our quote, to see if they really apply or not. In other words, everyone is a “follower” but not in the good sense they think (of course, that evaluation of this religion is for everyone to do before rather than after).
Assuming you are right on the better situation of Russia “after” its intervention in comparison with “before”, it is not something to be “happy” about. To wit, let’s say circumstances force them to do this with every “stan” or with two or three more “stans” – is the situation really more secure? In the “politics” of that country, it would make Russia “responsible” for its welfare or status quo; it is still forced into a situation it would rather not be in.
Slightly off topic but, while Ryabkov “negotiates”, a Russian state operated Tupolev 154 just took off from Caracas….
Excellent analysis. However I hope steps will be taken regarding more equitable sharing of wealth in a country that is fossil fuels exporter after all. Otherwise great mass of frustrated underclass will remain, always target for Empire manipulation.
“Who “lost” Kazakhstan and to whom?
“Neither Russia nor China, despite the rhetoric of the USA….. “
Framing is a tool of “perception management” attempting to deny that lateral change is a constant whose variables include, but are not limited to, trajectory and velocity, which simultaneously obfuscates that which is outwith and that which is within, the frame.
Framing in nation states with sub-sets is often used to minimise the perception of whom the opponents are, and whom the framers are.
“The United States of America” are a complex net of coercive social relations not limited to, or to be conflated with, a current geo-political construct lying between Canada to the north and Mexico to the south.
Within nets principles of the more the wriggling, the more enmazement/restriction prevail.
As a consequence of these coercive social relations, increasingly their opponents are those seeking the transcendence of these coercive social relations through co-operation, most co-operation with “The United States of America” being limited to that which facilitates the complicity of “The United States of America” in their own transcendence through parallel interacting vectors.
The opponents of “The United States of America” are to be found throughout the world, not limited to “Russia” or “China” and since lateral change is a constant, the forms/modes/trajectories by/through which transcendence of coercive social relations is/will be facilitated will also be transcended co-operatively through time.
The rhetoric of “The United States of America” is based on linear quantitative hopes/nets, whilst the co-operations of their opponents are facilitated/informed by strategies to facilitate lateral qualitative transcendence.
1….So we have Lukashenko, Pashinian and now Tokaev all ex-multi-vector politicians begging Russia for help and getting that help, but at the obvious political price of ditching their former multi-vector policies…
.I think the multi-vectors were in the game while matched to the Russian business and the export-import lobby. Now that they see that there is nothing from Lisbon Vladivostok transversale, under the sanctions, under the pressure of the people from inside, the Russians had to fix something rotten for a long time, otherwise they would get a revolution in their own country.
2…….Putin “cracked” three notorious multi-vectorist and got them to be nice, loyal and very grateful (!) partners for Russia.
.It is not Putin but Russian officials. Putin by the Constitution has no superpresidental power anymore, but share it with parliament, furthermore with state services and the army. So I would ask you to stop using “eufemism” for Putin’s genius. If he was one the Russians wouldn’t be here today solveing NATO and US agents on their borders. However, from the former agent, man can not expect anything better, he leads the state as a job. It is the same with actors and businessmen in America. Sometimes earlier there were schools for diplomats, today the places of diplomats and ambassadors get incompetent people. There is no statemen in world of Globalist game.
3. ….The impact of what just took place in Kazakhstan will reverberate all over Central Asia…….
Let’s hope so. First you need to make your own borders and than talk like a sovereign country to the neighboors. Not reversed. to expect from internationals to resolve the national problems.
4. …..The same can be said for Kazakhstan where a huge purge is taking place, with the highly influential head of the security services (and former Prime Minister!) not only demoted, but arrested for treason!…
I expect from Russia to make the Union in which should go near Belarus, also Kazakhstan and Ukraine. People expect arrest of oligarchy, traitors in services and military courts. Like what is done in China. The country power, member of UNSC without the law for high treason and the death penalty can not survived. The people are the owners of the state, not elite other way around.
5…..So in plain English, the SVR/FSB/GRU will now have a free hand to “clean house” the same way the Russians “cleaned house” ….
Let hope so. But not for “Schwab interests” like in France, but for national interests.
6…….deindustrialized shithole, it now is run by an entire class (in the Marxist sense) of Nazis whom, apparently, nobody has the will or the ability to de-Nazify (Russia could, but has exactly zero motive.
Is it in the interest of Russia to have Nazi neighborhood with the American weapon?? I doubt it. I understand Russians living in the West as well as Serbs, but this statement has nothing to do with objectivity. In case of war, they will be persecuted by their new fellow-citizens, at least verbally. Serious sovereign state make the boundaries and a neighborhood that it wants.
7…not only are their current borders meaningless (and I mean totally completely meaningless), but these borders bring under one totally artificial political “roof” completely different ….
Maybe the “administrative” boundaries were created by Bolsheviks, but not external ones. These are from the emperor time. For a continental power, this must be the “holy piece” for each state official.
8…..Also, Ukie nationalism is the most hate-filled and demented on the planet, they can only be compared with the Hutu Interahamwe in Rwanda..
Have you lived with Croats? Did the Russians live up to thirty years ago with the same people? Exaggeration in my opinion. A small minority of people make problems, which should be emptied in time as a rotten apple from the bucket, and do not allow everything to be nazified. Man should not be apologist of incompetent leadership. Does the man need to remind some of the people on the blog where they live today and with whom :))?
Russia will never take the whole of country 404. Parts maybe, and give parts back to Hungary and Romania. But most of country is a wreck that nobody wants. It is a suitcase without a handle.
Рахмона с Жапаровым забыли, Мирзиёев в очереди.
Бердымухамед закрывает телом «врата ада» (врёт что потушит газовый кратер Дарваза))). то есть находится в прострации. Когда увидит бородатых дервишей Хорасана, тогда всех в очереди растолкает и влезет первым под крыло …
Rakhmon and Japarov have been forgotten, Mirziyoyev is in line.
Berdymukhamed closes the “gates of hell” with his body (he’s lying that he will extinguish the gas crater of Darvaz))). that is, it is in prostration. When he sees the bearded dervishes of Khorasan, then he will push everyone in the queue and fit under the wing first …
If only the same would have happened in Kiev in 2014… The army could have crashed the nazis demonstrators instead to let them send molotov cosktails to put berkuts on fire.
At least it will never happen twice.
It was possible, but was not wanted. The business plans of the oligarchy, Gazprom shareholders, were more important at the time. Connections with Gorby’s Germany. Bad decision of Putin’s entourage back then.
Just wanted to say how much I enjoy your blog and the books you’ve written. Your knowledge and insight have contributed so much to helping me better understand what is really going on in the world regarding foreign policy. I can’t thank you enough. Keep it up!!
Article about Aman Dikiy. If you want to get an impression of how IT was possible to form those underground cells over some years read this one.
An important event in the context of everything that is happening. Since a bandit from Shymkent, an ex-boxer who is also an Instagram blogger, is extremely popular among mambets (through and through the criminalized lower strata of Kazakh society, the very masses of riot-mongers).
As a result of a special operation, law enforcement agencies of Kazakhstan detained in Alma-Ata the well-known crime boss Arman Dzhumageldiev, nicknamed Dikiy Arman (Arman Dikiy), and several members of his organized criminal group.
The author has produced a number of articles regarding recent happenings in Kazakhstan, yet now that CSTO forces have brought the riots under control, western governments and their media have got the knives out, trying to bleed the situation for everything it is worth.
More and more people in Moldova would want to re-unite with Romania…
That is a trend moving in a certain direction…
” No, Putin is NOT, repeat, NOT trying to “re-create” the Soviet Union. ”
I shall assume that he is NOT trying to recreate Russian Empire either, at least
not in a monarchy style, even though there are many who yearn for it.
Question is what exactly is he trying to create?
In a short run it is clear: triply secure state of RF, militarily (largely accomplished), economically (on the way to be so) and socio-culturally ( hardest to estimate).
Best regards, Spiral
“Greater Eurasia”, together with China. And to the escort of the Russian Federation add the security of sovereignty and protection (including traditional / conservative values) to states that are not members of NATO and other military blocs and alliances that are hostile to Russia.
“Question is what exactly is he trying to create?”
When doctor heals cancer he doesnt create anything, yet he saves life.
Cancer is only cured by means of cuting, burning, poisoning, or gamma rays.
Not by talking with therapist.
Western Empire is disease of this planet. This is the cure.