This comment was chosen by Mod HS from the post “Moveable Feast Cafe 2016/02/13 13:58:37”.  The moderator believes this comment questions whether there will be a World War III. The commenters conclusion is there won’t be a World War III and the window for a major world war is closing.

Comment by Larchmonter445


To all who predict the inevitable war, wherever your mind thinks it will transpire:

It is a requirement of that prediction to tell us what the Order of Battle shall be.

For instance, China attacked by the US.
Or, Turkey and US/NATO/Arabs with oil attacking Russia.
Or, Turkey and the nazis of Ukraine attacking Russia.
Or, some Israeli (Zio-whatever you want) false flag attack that results in attacking Russia.

Please tell us how the war gets going with planes? with missiles? with sub? with carriers and destroyers?

And lay out the first 5-10 hours, then day one in full, and then the next day.

And tell us, dear friends of the next inevitable war, how many men, how many planes, how many ships are involved on the attacking West’s side.

See, that inevitable stuff is nonsense in the nuclear age.
The kind of war we are seeing now in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen and earlier in Ukraine and what we saw in Iraq, Kuwait and Afghanistan are very deadly to be sure. But they are small conflicts.

They have wide impact on civilians mostly. Somehow the armies rarely clash in large formations.
At most, only Ukraine has given us enormous impact because the Ukies are especially ignorant and horribly led. Yemen is a bloodbath, but it is amongst minor players.

But what you predictors of inevitable Russia attacked by the West in any form say is a fiction.

And attacking China is even more so.

One, you do not understand military doctrine. And the most important national military doctrine is Russia’s. It openly states that they will use nuclear weapons in many situations. They have a clear fast path of first use.

The West does not intend to state its first strike use, but it would strike first in full fashion if it could.
It does not because it does not want to be totally destroyed.

Russia does not much care if it gets hit by nukes under the situation of saving its troops from destruction or warding off a massive ground attack, or suffering some attempt at EMP attack or even Cyber or Space (by laser or hypersonic weapons).

What this business of nuclear is really doing is down-scaling the ‘war” between giants. There simply cannot be a war, a grand war anywhere, by proxy or by principals. The big wars are over.

No nation is going to stand still today and watch 300 ships form off its coast ready to send 4000 cruise missiles into its ports, airports, urban centers and industrial sites, and all it military installations and defenses.

No nation will be able to assemble the armor and vehicles of 90,000 men anywhere near a major nation and threaten an invasion.

No nation can send 100 or 1000 or 10,000 sorties of bombers or cruise missiles or IRBMs or ICBMs into another nation without suffering total annihilation in return.

So, there won’t be WW3.

There will be many more Syrias if Russia does not prevail. And more Ukraines if Russia does not prevail. There will be some more Yemens, probably.

But there won’t be WW3. You simply must understand the Order of Battle to form such a war is impossible today. No large nation (or tiny one like Israel with 350 nukes) will stand by and take that sort of preparation and first strike hit. The threatened nation will use their nukes to destroy the formation.

Thus, Saudi Arabia’s invasion threat and Turkey’s invasion threat are by necessity small threats.
Russia and Syria and Iraq can handle these.

The only dominant force the US has left is its naval power. And no nation is threatening it on the seas. So they can’t win anywhere. No one to fight on the oceans.

Where and how they want to fight is blocked. They want to fight the Russians and the Chinese with planes, drones and missiles. But they can’t. The S400 and S300 and next year the S500 will stop them. And if they somehow broke through in a few places, they would be nuked by missiles Russia and China have that they can’t find, can’t see and can’t stop.

The US has to get relatively close with its cruise missiles to fire them effectively. China and Russia can hit the US ships and subs from 3x the distance.

There simply is not a feasible Order of Battle for victory.

There is not going to be a WW3.

There might be a deadly clash. Jets shot down. Troops and defenses blasted.
But it won’t accelerate too widely. Even if a few hundred died, the reaction would be scaled to the region where the clash occurred. It would be over before the whole thing was reported. An hour.

And the window of war is closing. Americans are rising up. They want no more, except with Terrorists.

The Essential Saker: from the trenches of the emerging multipolar world