Why NATO Attacked Crimea (hint, the G20 Summit) 26507 Views October 30, 2022 Speeches, Statements and Interviews The Saker The Essential Saker IV: Messianic Narcissism's Agony by a Thousand Cuts Order Now The Essential Saker III: Chronicling The Tragedy, Farce And Collapse of the Empire in the Era of Mr MAGA Order Now Tagged Gonzalo Lira
The risk to Russian ships in the Black Sea is not a theoretical concept , the Russians have already lost the Moskva in the Black Sea which provided an excellent AD platform for the Russians and was a very real risk to Western ISR airborne assets in the Black Sea. It is my opinion that this is where the first contact will come from the Russian forces with direct western assets such as ISR platforms. The fact that Russians have now started to point the finger at the UK publicly means Moscow is nearing a kinetic response point and is laying out the justification. They have previously refrained from pointing the finger because it would only trigger a demand for a response from the Russian public.
Even if Putin doesn’t want a direct contact, militarily and politically if Russia continues to lose ships/assets in the Black Sea it will become untenable for Russia not to respond.At this point the “grain deal” for the Russians is not worth it if it means losing more ships due to attack on the Black Sea as they will be forced to respond and escalate the conflict. I am surprised they haven’t yet responded due to Moskva loss. It was the human equivalent of someone coming in and sleeping with your wife in your own bed and you not doing anything about it, an untenable situation.
Sooner or later, G20 or not, Russia will be forced to respond militarily in the Black Sea against western assets.
Putin can try and ignore these constant provocations and I’m fairly sure of the reasons why he does, but at some point, the situation will become untenable, and as you very rightly say, he is going to have to respond in the face of ever stronger political calls to action and public unrest.
What Putin is doing is genuinely commendable, and his insistence on rigidly adhering to the law so as to make sure that history cannot question his legitimate actions is equally smart, and shows that he is capable of thinking significantly beyond his time here.
The problem, is that his adversaries do not play by these rules, and that will make it increasingly hard for him to continue on his current path in the face of provocations that, for the most part, have not been too serious (not to diminish what has happened so far, but I think we can all agree that things could be considerably worse).
I would also say that, so far, none of these provocations has been so serious that they merited anything more or less than the action taken, but sooner or later these Ukrainian clowns and their western owners will do something that he will not be able to ignore, and I suspect that if it is going to happen, it will be fairly soon.
Russia has their own brand of underwater drones, they are nuke powered and nuke tipped.
Russia could do a first strike underwater drone attack and take out all major ports on both the east and west coast of the USA. This would turn a consumer-based economy into a nothing based economy. It’s 3 am and all ports got hit simultaneously, Zero early radar warming.
At 302 am, Putin can call Biden and offer him a deal. Biden might be able to return a call around 10 am after all of his team met. They can then decide if they want Russia to finish the job.
With a sea-based military, all Navy home bases will be destroyed. With all commercial seaports having been sanctioned by Russia, the USA will have no trading leverage over the rest of the world.
You seem very keen to have a nuclear exchange. ad hominem removed .. mod
A wise analyst takes into account capabilities more than perceived intentions.
Agreed , the tempo in provocations is going to increase, however the US is very keen on not getting attacked itself so as not to be forced to respond and looks to be in the process of setting up the UK to take the fall and take the kinetic hit and then of course the big loss of prestige which will happen for the UK military as they are very unlikely to respond in a direct forceful manner.
Ukraine is a done deal militarily, economically, socially, soon the US will cut their losses. I have been confused as to why the US keeps pushing these provocations when it is clear it just brings further destruction upon Ukraine. I have come to the conclusion that they just want the Russians to destroy Ukraine and then own it, especially any infrastructure which could have been used by the Russians for their industrial military complex as well as to expend Russian ammunition as well as lives, etc. There is a theory by the neocons that this will split up Russia and weaken but I suspect it will have the opposite effect, the Russian people are not stupid they know the enemy has always been the Western elite who wish to exploit and tear apart Russia and use it against China. I suspect after Ukraine is over and the Russian people reflect as a whole what has happened and the utter destruction that has been rained down on Ukraine they are going to be much more impatient and are going to demand harsh military responses to any provocations by the West on their borders.
I commend Putin also but it’s clear they have studied his psychology and have predicted how will react to provocations and he has reacted exactly as would have been predicted given his serious legalistic and very well thought out decisions. This however will mean the overall destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure.
I myself would have just called the US bluff at the beggining and downed a couple of ISR assets in the Black Sea, perhaps some stray missiles fired towards Rzeszów to see if they were really ready for a wide ranging conflict. However, I am much more of a gambler and much more impatient than Putin. In the end it looks like Putin is going to be forced to go there anyway and I suspect that will be the end of the conflict as the US will seek to deescalate, but large patches of Ukraine and its industrial base will be destroyed.
“I have been confused as to why the US keeps pushing these provocations when it is clear it just brings further destruction upon Ukraine.”
Five simple letters:
They’re up to their ears in their own feces at the Idiot Empire’s HQ in the DC Bubble. It’s clear their calamitous end is within touching distance now, and they’re flailing about without thought or care.
Indeed, the US will push this as far as they possibly can without actually getting involved and I agree that they are setting the UK up to absorb some kind of kinetic response.
The fact that Russia seems to be so adamant that the UK was involved in the recent port attack, the bridge and now Nord Stream as well indicates (to me at least) that private Intel was rather intentionally made public wink/wink.
I think your comment about the very obvious scrutiny of Putin’s psychology is also on point, I would however add that Putin is no doubt all to well aware of this, and may throw some strategically placed curve balls where the Neocons do not see them coming.
All in all, interesting times ahead!
Thanks for taking the time to reply.
The people of the United States aren’t pushing Ukraine to continue, the Ashkenazim in the U.S. State Department and the Biden Administration are the ones doing it.
Russia didn’t react to the loss of the Moskva because it sank for the exact reason that they said: accidental ignition of a rocket in storage caused a serious fire.
Anti-ship missiles such as the Neptune leave very distinctive damage (holes in the hull above the waterline), and there was no smoke coming out of any holes in the side of the hill or even any place that you wouldn’t expect to emit smoke from a below decks fire.
The Ukies claimed to have hit it with a Neptune because they had nothing else to put into propaganda for public consumption to demonstrate that they have any chance of winning this thing (proof of a Neptune not being the cause is simple — the remainder of the Black Sea continues squadron to sail unmolested.
Truth be told, all surface ships are vulnerable these days. I doubt that the Russian navy would be loitering, as it is, were it not confident that it has already knocked out 95% of Ukraine’s anti-ship capabilities.
As if the USA or the EU care in the least about hunger in the poor countries or anywhere else.The EU has stolen Russian money and the food exports . Although Russia is the biggest exporter of grain, it is prevented by the illegal sanctions of Russia by the EU, not allowing any of the members to dare disagree. I live in France and even here there is some disagreement.
Russian grains/fertilisers are exported outside the EU & North America, Oz & NZ, to South America, Africa and Asia. I’m sure China/others have increased their potash imports from Belarus also.
I’d like to hear from anyone that has information on American purchases of Russian uranium (supposedly feeds half of US total requirements), in particular, but also minerals, metals & gases, not forgetting rocket engines (Elon).
Tucker Carlson reckons there’s a shortage of diesel in America.
There is a diesel shortage. Last report (ignored by almost everyone of course) was that current reserves will last only 25 days, and they are not being refilled at anywhere near the necessary rate to maintain the JIT “economy”.
This is going to be the hardest winter in living memory. At least until NEXT winter.
Sounds good. Keep us informed the diesel front.
Just In Time delivery (the delivery trucks Are our warehouses, huh-yuk-yuk-yuk) was the 2nd stupid idea from NBA schools to hit corporate America, second only to giving all their manufacturing facilities complete with FULL, 100 % duplication, to China).
I worked in Chile for 3 years. I liked the country, liked the people. Yet, they are Latinos without the warm heart so customary to all other Latinos. The motto of the country is : By Reason or by Force. They do not take prisoners.
This analysis is based on reason, and I do agree with it.
The decades of the right-wing military dictatorship and the Chicago boys’ economic and financial influence have permeated the national soul of Chile. Maybe Chile was always conservative and right-wing. But there is a distinct flavor of the Chilean people that is very different from say the Argentinians, especially their officials, police, military, etc.
Always enjoy your talks. Sometimes I may light a cig too.
The upcoming G20 meeting is in Bali, Indonesia.
Prez. Widodo was under pressured by the West to not invite Russia. Widodo went ahead to invite Putin anyway. That spoke a lot. We Asians don’t back out on a commitment like that easily, especially if the face slap has already done.
Putin is coming, there will be interesting hand shaking lines for Putin/Xi/Modi/MBS, and Biden/minions, provided Biden can remember his spot.
@KitaySupporter “provided Biden can remember his spot.”
That’s assuming Biden is still president after the NOV 8 US Midterm elections.
If the Dems are routed & lose control of both the House & the Senate (the Paul Pelosi false flag, as if the #3 to the US President doesn’t have a F/T security detail at all of their homes in Pacific Heights, Napa & Georgetown shows how desperate the Dems are) Biden will get the blame & V-P Harris will take over.
In your heart of hearts will your best-case scenario make any difference or is it just a case of musical chairs with a few different handlers on deep state’s payroll?
“Vote all you want. The secret government won’t change.”
The people we elect aren’t the ones calling the shots, says Tufts University’s Michael Glennon
By Jordan Michael Smith
October 19, 2014, 12:29 a.m.
I was thinking that the only chance for ‘Change You Can Believe In’, in America, is for the ‘grass roots-blue-red pill teams’ to come together and vote out the incumbent. Remember it would only take the majority of Independents in most precincts to get behind the ‘Greenhorn’. The career politicians, even the radicals, Bernie and the BS Squad, have been corrupted to the core, their only goal is bigger campaign funds, larger brown envelopes to pad the nest-egg, then through the revolving-door to a cushy Directorship @ MIC-BankCorp.
The Greenhorns now know that a 2nd Term depends on performance, mandate. Deep State is not their boss.
Well, all of the above or half a dozen Satan-2 hypersonic missiles.
We ain’t votin’ ourselves out of this.
They look like spoiled brats. “You’re not alloeed in our playground!”
And its not the first time. they did something similar circa 2014. Putin actually left because they where shunning him, but a year or two later he came back in style.
The same will happen. I think shunning russia again is pointless, and it would actually be smart of him not going. Russia has enough diplomatic backchannels with everyone, doesnt need G20 burocracies, no point playing the game when it’s rigged.
We shall see. The G20 table is turning into some plurality showcase.
After the upcoming November 8th regime change, US Congress and Governorship will no longer be controlled by Biden. Biden should stay home, for fear being embarrassed by the totality of his policy failures validated by a serious mid-term debacle.
” it would actually be smart of him not going ”
Yes, and another good reason for Putin to NOT go is because the insane Satanists might try to assassinate Putin, and maybe even succeed.
I agree with Saker that Putin should stay in Moscow indefinitely instead of exposing himself to the risk of being targeted (like Soleimani).
Putin has shown his Christian patience/restraint… and now he should also demonstrate his Christian PRUDENCE.
In my opinion, it would NOT be prudent for Putin to attend.
(On the other hand, I myself would be very impressed to see Putin show up, FEARLESSLY! But I hope he stays home, and I pray daily for Putin’s safety EVERY day!!!)
I’ll back Putin’s security detail to have everything down pat, from Russia’s Embassy & Quarters to Accommodation to Venue-Return
Of course, he should attend, he’s the Rockstar representing the Free World and whom the region wants to do business with. What are America’s plans for the region, yes, Chaos and Death, who wants that?
Most likely there will be as many press in attendance as delegates and they’re not there to watch Joe dribble down his chin or Nuland.dishing out cookies.
Thanks for all you do, Gonzalo.
Given that the people actually running today’s US politico-military shit show are anonymous, unaccountable, irrational and plainly will stop at nothing, I wonder if it’s a good idea for Putin to attend the G20.
If the G-20 was in the USA, Biden could call the SEIU Union, and they would send busloads of supporters to make it look good. With Putin present, there will be less focus on Biden walking off to an empty area and performing handshakes with the air.
If Russia were to obtain incontrovertible proof of UK direct realtime command-level involvement (orchestration) in the attack against its Crimean fleet, would they not be justified according to the most basic laws of war in executing a counterattack against any Royal Navy vessels in the general vicinity?
There are libraries of evidence of British complicity. Evidence no longer matters, it depends on if Russia wants to escalate. Russia does not have to, the grain cut off is enough. Anglos wiill starve, freeze and go broke.
We don’t need no stinking badges, err, evidence.
When the Dutch clogs handed over the MH17 black boxes to MI6, an iron dome enveloped the truth.
Don’t have much info but a few days ago Russia said the Royal Navy were involved in the Nord stream 2 explosion,well looks like there could be something to it,looks like the Russians using Israeli Pegasus spyware have intercepts of Liz Truss believe it or not using her I Phone t,i hope telling Blinken its done,meaning the pipeline,this is international terrorism against Russia and a so called Ally Germany,i hope Russia doesn’t let this one go.
Why wouldn’t we believe it? Liz Truss is dumber than a squashed apricot.
No, US Midterm elections on NOV 8.
[Quote] “How do the Russians know that the UK blew up the North Stream pipelines in partnership with the US?
Because Liz Truss used her iPhone to send a message to Sec. Blinken saying “It’s done” a minute after the pipeline blew up and before anybody else knew?
iCloud admin access rocks!” – Kim Dotcom (on Twitter)
Of course, the UK is spinning it as a phone hack by “Putin’s spies”
Sorry i missed your post and just posted that very point.
No worries. Always good to have it confirmed.
Is there an American vassal whose economy is vibrant or are they all at death’s door, the price of doing business with Uncle Sham.
Of course, the leadership/handlers of those vassals are doing well personally, unfortunately at the expense of the Great Unwashed, who are far too preoccupied establishing how they can make it to the soup-kitchens or food banks after work.
How long can Europeans continue to put on a brave face, keep a stiff upper lip?
Picture this, the full US diplomatic core in Indonesia and region will be calling/sniffing around, trying to drum up support for a G20 Russian boycott. It’s like paying for a ticket to see the headline act but having to make do with the support bands. Even South Korea wants Putin/Russia to free them from the anus of Satanic USA. All hearts and minds lead to Putin, only the balls (and some c*nts) to follow.
Yes, the hegemon is getting very desperate. I wouldn’t be surprised if the dirty bomb was the plan A to exclude Russia from the G20. Perhaps there is still time for another major false flag … how about Biden being killed or incapacitated so he can’t embarrass the hegemon at the G20, of course with Putin to blame. Two birds with one stone?
Thank you Gonzalo.
It’s nice to listen to your chat over a cup of coffee (it’s early morning in my neck of the woods) and hear some good common-sense comments.
I agree the Sevastopol attack has something to do with the G20 summit — it is to force Russia to stop the grain shipments, or rather to stop providing safe passage for ships out of Odessa, and use that to isolate Russia diplomatically, particularly at the G20 summit in Indonesia. Having said that, Russia has been mulling over the possibility of not extending the grain deal because the grain — a big proportion of which is American-owned — is not going to needy countries and Nato’s Portuguese peon at the UN, Guterres, has not been working hard enough to lift the embargo on Russian grain and fertiliser, which is part of the deal. Russia produces much more grain than the Ukraine. Russia can easily make up the Ukrainian shortfall many times over. It’s now clear the whole deal is a scam.
I think Russia is in a bit of a bind. Both RF and the US are vying for the ‘hearts and minds’ of the Global South, and Indonesia, part of maritime Southeast Asia, is emerging as a big player. Putin not coming to G20 would deal a blow to Indonesia’s prestige and give the US centre-stage free to spin its lies, with no Russia to push a counter-narrative, or rather to tell the truth. OTOH a trip could entail a real threat to Putin’s safety; the West is desperate. I don’t know, perhaps Mishustin could take Putin’s place. And if a mere Russian PM could upstage the US wooden-headed marionette, I mean, president at G20, that would be something.
…and so, all this bullshit, you know, is not for the consumption of the Global South, it’s not going to work with the Global South, it’s for the Western domestic public…
The Global South needs food and access to energy resources, media narratives cannot meet that very real need. It’s the same with Europe , they have spun up media narratives up the wazoo but it doesn’t provide them real resources such as natural gas and uranium, etc.
This is becoming a very real issue around the world, I suspect behind the scenes the situation is rapidly deteriorating diplomatically for DC around the world. The only real ultimate tool at the moment for DC is to hand over billions but those billions don’t automatically buy energy and food any longer in the volumes that they used to due to the current geopolitical situation. The usual out that is taken in these situations which is war, is not available because it is Russia and it will become a nuclear conflict. We have this cheap analogue of Ukraine but it’s not working.
This geopolitical situation is untenable for DC, I don’t see any of this lasting until March.
I wonder what capacity Russia has to respond to a US move on Transnistria.
There’s been daily protests in Moldova.
The question is being openly asked, how much longer can the pro-Western Sandu government hold on before being forced to resign & calls an election to settle the issue of sanctions policy?
It’s being reported by the RF that the amphibious drones were of Canadian origin and design. Mr DressUp needs Mr Kinzal to pay a visit to Rideau Hall, hopefully when his Nazi Dominatrix is with him in session.
Gonzalo recently was asking what happened to KanWest, deplatformed: for dissing the ethnic minority that controls the majority. Victim of the ‘You Too’ pogrom.
Correction: The G20 will be taking place in Indonesia not in Singapore. Were it to be in Singapore, the West would have made sure that Russia is not invited. Singapore is NATO’s errannd boy.
Secondly the grains were supposed to be shipped to the global south, but in reality only a tiny fraction of the first shipment went to the global south. According to Russia less than twenty percent of the total shipment the last time went to the developing countries, the rest went to Euope. Russia has documented this fraud and broadcast it.
Also, the Ukrainian grains that were being shipped belong not to Ukraine but to American conglomerates. So this is not a service to humanity but a cunning exercise on the side of the West to continue profiting from the conflict they are executing and managing.
The NATO/NAZI know very well that their antics are not fooling many people outside their zones of control. Thus the desperation.
Where is the HMS Queen Elizabeth located at the minute?
It would be huge embarrassment if an unidentified underwater drone or cruise missile hit her below the waterline .
What has become of the former British Empire? Playing games in the Black Sea for PR and propaganda? Blowing up pipelines? Making common cause with Volodymyr Elensky? Being once again the junior partner in a US war? (In my view Elensky does not deserve to have a “Z” in his name. Even M. K. Bhadrakumar of the Indian Punchline has written his name in this way.)
Tucker Carlson asks why this guy in a T-shirt is asking for 50 or 100 billion dollars from US taxpayers (300 billion from the EU). Maybe because Ukraine is fighting a proxy war for the US? The US intends to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian. There are 60 – 100’000 dead Ukrainians still counting. What is the price of a fallen Ukrainian? And for what? To “weaken Russia” in a long war according to the Defence Secretary and some Senators.
But Elensky also has himself to blame for the heavy losses. In 2019 he campaigned for better relations with the Russian Federation and when he was elected he did just the opposite. There are also Nazis in Kiev. Who knows what they are up to.
Ben Wallace says Zelensky has the ‘most trendy defence minister’