Over the past couple of days I have spend a lot (too lot) of time dealing with the immediate issues such as the dying (or already defunct?) ceasefire agreement. Whatever importance one can give to this document and its meaning (or lack thereof), it is important not go get bogged down and do what the French call “avoir le nez dans le guidon” (to “have your nose in the handlebars” of a bike – not to see where the road is leading you).
Whenever I look at where our road is leading us I always come to the very same conclusion: it is my belief that Novorussia will never accept anything less than de-facto independence from Kiev.
Sure, this independence might be piously ‘concealed’ behind a thin layer of symbolic Ukrainian unity, but there is simply no way that Kiev will ever have real, effective, authority over Novorussia again. I think that even Russia will have to accept that, however reluctantly.
Now I heard that Poroshenko has made a major political statement today and that he declared that the Donbass might have some “special status”, but that this would most definitely NOT be any type of federalization and that no DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) or LPR (Lugansk People’s Republic) will ever be recognized by Kiev. I applaud Poroshenko for making that unambiguously clear statement as this only reinforces my deeply held conviction that both Novorussia and Russia proper have no other solution that regime change in Kiev. Although as this point in time this might appear an impossible task to complete, the Ukraine must be (and will be!) completely de-Nazified before any form of peace can return.
I want to share just one example of why I believe that total de-Nazification is an absolute prerequisite for peace. Check out the kind of “packages” mothers in Donetsk have been sent by one of the terror battalions paid for, and subordinated to, Igor Kolomoiski:
These are the severed heads of Novorussian soldiers captured by the Ukie death squads near Donetsk. The Ukies, of course, blamed this latest atrocity on some unidentified “Chechens” fighting on, of all things, the Novorussian side, but everybody got the message loud and clear anyway: leave before we kill you.
So when I speak of Nazi freaks or “Ukie Interahamwe” I am not being over the top at all. One the key aspects of the Junta’s strategy is to empty the Donbass of its population, ethnic cleansing if you prefer. Some have left temporarily, and others have probably left forever, but just as in Gaza, those committing these atrocities are deluding themselves if they think everybody whom they will not kill will leave. The human spirit is always stronger than terror, at least in the long run, and unless a true genocide is a real option (and in this case it is not), this terror will not achieve it’s intended result. In fact, it will only strengthen the determination of these people to fight. At any cost.
Poroshenko can lie to his people and/or even delude himself. Putin might hope that some kind of unitary Ukraine can still be preserved, but I am personally convinced that 1) Novorussia will never return under Kiev’s rule and 2) that the war will continue until regime change occurs and the Ukraine de-Nazified. Finally, I believe that even if regime change occurs in Kiev and the rump-Ukraine is de-Nazified, Novorussia will still not accept anything short of de-facto independence from Kiev. The wisdom for the future non-Nazi regime in Kiev will be to accept the inevitability of this and make the best of it: the rest of the Ukraine will be much better of rebuilding itself from the smoking rubble than to try to persuade Novorossia to come back, nevermind force it to do so.
I understand that we are still very far from this, maybe a year away or, more likely, many years away. But just like the liberation of Palestine is a historical inevitability so is the independence of Novorussia. The price to pay for this outcome might be huge, and the wait very long. But this does not make this outcome less inevitable.
I think that it is important to keep this in mind, especially through the tragic and often discouraging times we are currently going through.