by Jorge Vilches for the Saker Blog
How can you be so sure Jorge ? Please allow me 10 minutes to make my case with this focused, easy to follow, all-inclusive, and fully vetted explanation. Then I humbly and cordially challenge any individual or institution to prove me wrong. If history is any guide, banning Russian oil would turn EU members into failed states. Furthermore it would FUBAR world market dynamics by altering Russia´s current stabilizing role thus triggering moving parts into motion.
6 key criteria
Beware: the reliable provision of Russian oil to the EU is essential because of its quality, quantities, price, service and delivery enlargement that Europe needs to constantly grow. Banning Russian oil means finding many different oils – from many new unproven vendors – that would have to render the same homogenized profile of delivery, quality, quantity, price, service and enlargeability that Russia reliably provides today. Nothing less, of course. Think about it.
Otherwise we cannot have the Europe we now know and the future Europe we need. All 6 factors are required. Not enough quantity adequately delivered means degraded European lives and failing economy, with shut down plants and refineries affecting transportation, heating, hospitals & schools, highly limited military, unemployment, etc., etc.
A different or lower oil quality means poor performance and operational risks with serious breakdown troubles and injuries plus down-time probably beyond repair. Not low enough price — Russian fuels are good & cheap — means disrupting the EU and the world with inflation beyond imagination. And as Procurement Depts. know well, an utmost reliable vendor service is paramount also to allow for mutual growth. Russia is a vetted, close-by, one-stop, well “oiled” 6-criteria compliant vendor. Instead, the EU´s losing proposition is a far away beach-front bazaar with seaborne delivery only, shipped by a fleet too small for purpose. A single non-compliant vendor is simply unacceptable, period.
Furthermore, Russia´s oil sales to Europe provide a stabilizing critical mass to compensate for world market variations
3 impossible missions 3
The huge problem is that there are 3 and only 3 ways out of this terribly EU mis-managed fuel sourcing hellish-crazy messy mess. For all 3 options in order to comply with the 6 oil criteria briefly explained before (more on that later) the EU would be required to import variable quantities from several different yet unknown vendors having
(1) fully compliant export-ready oil grades to be produced beyond and incremental to current production (#)
(2) fully compliant oil grades found deep underground somewhere yet unknown per definition 0% available today
(3) modify every single piece of machinery in the EU to fuel them with different non-compliant non-Russian oils…
and with no possible “toggle switch” to convert from one type of oil to another… We´d have a forcefull life-long linkage between one vendor and his supposedly constant oil deliveries, which would be different from other vendors and their supposedly constant deliveries made to other EU consumers. NO interchangeability here.
(#) It´d have to be “incremental” export volumes beyond current production for two reasons: one would be potential growth in EU demand and the second reason is that no vendor will leave traditional customers abandoned high & dry just because the EU has now gone bananas. Furthermore, these contracts could might all turn out being short-term ephemeral un-sustainable ´purchases of convenience´ without continuity to be dropped the instant the EU´s “ban Russia´s oil” stops dead in its tracks for plenty of good reasons and thus discarding this nonsensical idea altogether.
Be it as it may, all 3 options require to find, negotiate, contract, plan for, test, schedule and get delivery of fully compliant Russian-oil substitutes. Per definition Option (2) does not exist today – if ever — and can only be considered for 2030 planning purposes or beyond in view of the firm 2022 EU deadline premise. Option (1) requires to import varying qualities, quantities, and prices of oils currently in production somewhere, if any are found, which as explained later due to current circumstances and overlapping requirements turns out to be 99% doubtful. Option (3) requires to modify, retrofit and adapt each and every European refinery, chemical & processing plant, machinery, engines, etc. etc. — everything powered by fuels really — for individual, specific not-interchangeable non-Russian oil substitutes which would all be slightly different at the very least and expensive. As shall be duly shown Option (3) is impossible.
“ We will make sure to phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion in a way that allows us and our partners to secure alternative supply routes and minimises the impact on global markets” – said Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. Quick response, no that will NOT happen Ursula. Neither markets nor Russia nor EU Green Standards nor prices nor regulators will let you do any of that. It will necessarily be very chaotic although most Europeans may not yet know it. Renewables and fancy footwork such as hydrogen or dirty coal & fuel oil will make things worse. Bankruptcies and unemployment would follow. Specifics are presented later herein. Let me explain.
Ref #1 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Renewables-Cant-Solve-Europes-Energy-Crisis.html
Ref #2 https://worldcrunch.com/business-finance/europe-russian-gas/floating-lng-terminals
Ref #3 https://worldcrunch.com/business-finance/europe-russian-gas/particle-4
timing, volumes & judo
Now comes what would normally be described as a multiple-ring circus with the animals and clowns running lose.
Technically speaking, all three options should be dismissed altogether, particularly under current most unfavorable circumstances. Also beware that Europe needs to avoid a self-inflicted Armageddon depression. The reason is an EU ban on Russian oil means per Option (1) to engage in a years-long import development project with non-vetted vendors (from Africa ?) covering absolutely 100% of all the EU current and future oil consumption. So the EU should necessarily replace ALL the Russian oil Europe could possibly ever consume, NOT just a part. Because Russia now has other priorities and will no longer cooperate with and adapt to EU needs and timing in any way. So forget about gradual Russian oil substitution. It´d be the opposite Ursula. For example, and just to entertain the idea, even if eventually achieving constant delivery of 75% fully-compliant non-Russian oil per Option (1) – impossible — it´d still mean digging a 25% deep hole into Europe´s economy, which Russia will not help to solve by supplying the missing 25% oil. The Druzhba pipeline supplies land-locked refineries in Poland, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia, so no need to shut down all of Europe. Just triggering a strong negative impact on a couple of countries would be enough A brief cut-off on Germany´s Schwedt refinery or Slovakia´s Slovnaft would be unbelievably catastrophic by shutting down continuous year-round processes which cannot be re-started and would mean irreparable harm. So the EU would need to substitute forever with whatever ALL of the almost infinite and excellent quick & safe delivery Russian oils. Europe just makes naïve and rigid moves ignoring Russia´s clever dynamic capabilities. Judo comes to mind. Ask Finland how does the Russian gut punch feel while now being cut off from both Russian nat-gas and electric power.
Ref #4 https://www.rt.com/business/555414-russia-gas-supplies-finland/
Ref #5 https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-to-suspend-finland-electricity-supply-from-weekend-over-payment-issues-478731
the solar system (… and beyond)
And if EU politicians don´t know or don´t care they´ll still very soon participate front and center in a fast & furious crash course on basic high school chemistry that will turn their faces pale, I promise. Hungary has publically exposed the problem: “the EU has ‘no solution’ to fix damage from Russian oil ban”. Also promised, history will not be kind with the EU leadership both for absent fuels and everyday consumer staples with “prices out of the solar system”. The EU relies on cheap and efficient Russian energy for many things such as transportation, heating, and electricity. The drop in supplies will lead to blackouts, shutdowns in industries and unemployment pushing inflation to unmanageable levels Ref #6 https://www.rt.com/news/555297-hungary-eu-no-solution/ .
Ref #7 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Record-High-Diesel-Prices-Will-Ripple-Across-The-Economy.html
Ref #8 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-airfares-and-soaring-food-prices-whats-behind-todays-surprise-cpi-beat
Ref #9 https://www.rt.com/business/555295-ukraine-block-russian-gas-explainer/
renewables do not help
Renewables have other known serious problems but also require humongous loads of Russian nat-gas, oil, coal, minerals and commodities. Wind turbines require thousands of tons of nickel and rare earths. Any such large structures are moved and erected with Russian fuel-powered equipment. Solar energy requires silver beyond belief. When renewables in large quantities are added to the electrical grid, costs go up – not down — as they have to be backstopped by thermal plants that today run on Russian fuels. “The more renewables you add, the more natural gas you need”. Ref #10 https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/lighting-gas-under-european-feet-how-politicians-journalists-get-energy-so-wrong
delivery + quality + quantity + price + service + reliability
The 3 options above are impossible to deploy for many reasons besides timing. For example, even if ever found, these 3 options need to be contracted, planned for, tested, scheduled, and delivered under very strict conditions that Russian sources already comply with regularly and reliably. Europeans are necessarily very much used to proven, vetted, Russian vendors and will not be acceptable to find it otherwise. It´d hurt Europe badly and possibly leading to outward chaos by continuous damage beyond repair of machinery, processes, sensitive devices and installations that EU plants currently have in place. With Russian sourcing, European production runs swift and smooth humming in all 8 cylinders… but not so with possible others… even if physical deliveries were adequately met. Also it´s easy to imagine vendors having something that Europe would buy, that still under current circumstances would not even wish to entertain the idea of offering anything to Europe let alone helping it out in any way shape or form. Think India and China, the world´s factory countries in many ways. And of course Russia would not help out Europe in any of the above 3 impossible missions. Russia will naturally – and probably very effectively — hinder any European effort or solution to replace Russian exports. The risky low tides and strong headwinds are fully against Europe, not Russia.
So then why do I say ´impossible´ ? The short answer is that “petro-logistics” make it physically impossible to ban Russian oil from Europe no matter how it´s diced or sliced as explained hereinafter in layman´s language. The name of this game means that “plug & play” of ensured adequate substitutes for Russian oil grades – options (1) and (2) respectively — are and will always remain clearly absent in quantities anywhere near large enough to make any difference for European needs. Chemical composition and physical parameters matter lots. Options (1) & (2) are out.
Option (1) – In the very best of cases, only useless, tiny small, and sporadical deliveries — if any, actually — would ideally be found, let alone effectively contracted on a necessarily predictable basis. I´d call them minor deliveries of substitutes not comparable to Russian oil. At any rate, the above would be operationally un-manageable as no plant can run if receiving supplies on a highly variable and ocassional basis of now-you-have-it (maybe) now-you-don´t (sorry) with feeds of dubious quality and composition. The EU today has highly sensitive plants finely tuned and used to Russian high quality oil during decades. So no plant runs without continuous, foreseeably constant feed of the right quality product (read chemical and physical properties) in large enough quantities which most probably will grow in time as demand increases. Otherwise no processing works as expected, or I´d rather say nothing works, period. This is shared by anybody with minimum plant hands-on or managerial experience, even millennials. So these facts all by themselves pretty much blow out options (1) and (2) out of the water. I confess that many times I disbelieve having to present such basic explanations. And no high sulphur content allowed as hydrotreating has reached its limits long ago
In a nutshell, the world wasn´t anywhere nearly prepared for an EU ban on Russian oil… or other Russian fuels…
Franz marries Natasha
Early this century, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder´s philosophy and policies led to a very clear and conclusive European strategy vis-á-vis energy sourcing. Very simply put in everyday terms, fuel-wise Europe married fuel-rich Russia and soon had plenty of babies that have now grown-up and crave for Russian food. Now enter the violent situation re Ukraine thru NATO´s provocation according to Pope Francis, and with an idle North Stream 2 fully wasted and just sitting pretty. So the whole European successful exporter industrial base was conceived, designed, built, and operated under the ´Russian fuels´ premise. That is why every EU government has failed to find the architectonics — let alone build — a realistic energy strategy that does not depend exclusively on Russia´s capability as an EXTRAordinary and reliable commodities exporter, most specially fuels. So Franz married gorgeous Natasha and raised a family. But now, per Anglo-Saxon ill-intentioned directives, Franz forces a divorce. The problem is that their children still demand Natasha´s Russian food. Ref #11 https://www.politico.eu/article/pope-francis-nato-cause-ukraine-invasion-russia/
The comments section of my latest article gained greatly from the input offered by SKovacs an excellent and friendly poster who shared his first hand 30-year knowledge in the oil & gas business with us all.
Please see link referenced below. So I´ll just summarize and/or quote what this most experienced poster had to say
- many EU refineries have been built to process certain types of oils found in Russia. The very design & build of these refineries (and petrochemical plants) was based on certain specific oil types within narrow variation in blend/quality and steady supply — variation normally of less than 15% vol/day — guaranteed for over 30 years (most commonly 50+ years). Obviously enough, the continuous supply of quality feeds is critical to the operation of a refinery or any chemical plant.
- adapting an EU refinery to new types of oils is not an easy task. Every adaptation of a chemical plant or refinery or ore processing plant requires first a detailed laboratory knowledge of the new blend, and formal guarantees for its continuous delivery for decades, convoluted & lengthy contracts and procurement processes, extremely detailed engineering plans, manufacturing of parts, shipping, installation, testing, commissioning, optimization, permitting etc. etc. etc. before it can be declared “done”. Any element of this incomplete list, if missing, renders the whole affair a failure both technically and economically…
- the above assumes guaranteed efficient and continuous shipping and receiving network(s) are always in place and fully operational (!) Such work involves thousands of people, complex processes and of course many billions of euros, regulatory permitting process, inherent lawsuits etc., i.e. A LOT OF TIME – years !
- Europe deprived of oil/gas/metallurgical coal from Russia — and also iron ore — is unlikely to build much. Never mind the finer components that require other alloy metals which are also provided by Russia…
Ref #12 https://thesaker.is/europes-mad-ban-on-russian-oil/
matched & mated
As already described, chemical plants and refineries are very closely matched and subtly calibrated to very specific and foreseeable supply feedstocks which are also very difficult to substitute. Changing anything requires lots of time, effort, money, dedicated facilities, experimentation, specific expertise, risk, and most important fixed, unchanging feeds always complying with specs. This means that Russia today supplies Europe with exclusive unreplaceable oil & gas grades of very specific chemical content (even coal grades) that would be impossible to get from third parties fast enough and cheap enough. So it´s a very delicate and tight matching already achieved between European facilities and reliable and vetted Russian fuels and other inputs that cannot be altered or replaced, let alone all at the same time (!!) or else… So another factor is the “sudden death” moment, no possible easy-does-it slow and smooth transition phasing out the Russian stuff one at a time and gradually phasing in our new whatever stuff… It´d be like trying to change a tyre as you keep driving without ever stopping the car okay ? Ref #13 https://www.ifo.de/en/node/69417
what for ?
And this banning of Russian oil idea defeats the supposed purpose as Russia would end up earning much more by exporting far less. And the higher the price of oil, the higher the inflationary pressure worldwide destroying the income of regular people. Go figure…By the way, it´s a single oil world market Ref #14 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60656673
And of course, Russia wouldn´t dare to retaliate against its oil ban with delivery reductions of, say, gas or uranium, would they?
Banning Russian oil also means altering the traditional direction of logistic flows which is costly and risky. New shipping freighters are unprepared for unknown delivery schedules and product specs. Ports and oceans are different, same with shipping lanes, climates, seasonal availabilities of hydrocarbons and shipping vessels types and sizes which means lots of negotiation, coordination, funding, expertise, risk, new fixed and variable costs and surprises from yet unknown trade and business partners, new procedures, brokers, insurance companies, etc. Also expected continuity, LNG & LPG terminal bottlenecks, processing, availability, cost, weather restrictions when most needed.
Russia´s oil & gas pipe delivery to the EU is safe, clean, and cheap. Russian sea freighted oil comes for nearby ports.
EU acquatics + age & Whatsapp
Altering the Russian energy sourcing strategy now leaves Europe gasping for air with its nose dangerously close to the waterline. By design, chemically speaking Russian feeds are a European absolute sine-qua-non. It is technically unfeasible and unsustainable for Europe not to count on Russian oil & gas. Politics – or war for that matter — can´t change that. If this Russian oil ban is ever implemented, European operational and maintenance staff & field personnel would probably demand being switched to other jobs… or will drag their feet… or would simply resign thus necessarily compounding the problem to unchartered depths. New, young, inexperienced hands do not help under these experimental circumstances, trust me. With or without Whatsapp, having baldy and/or grey-haired guys around is a greatly-appreciated feature/asset, never a bug. Many would be called back from retirement, read my lips.
now some petrophysics
So option (1) applies to all non-Russian oils currently under production but not necessarily offered for sale. Option (2) refers to future oil theoretically down in subsurface in yet untapped reservoirs of hyper-low possible existence in ultra-low production volumes. If you are in the business agreed it´s pure nonsense to go into the details of such an experiment. But apparently the topic now needs to be politically addressed and explained, so bear with me and so be it. To make a long story short, petro-physically speaking these Russian oil grades actually cannot exist elsewhere for very clear and well-known limiting geological parameters. So not only these oil grades can´t be sourced somewhere else but it´d also be a monumental royal waste of time and money to look for such down in subsurfaces yet unknown,
to no avail. Nobody in the business will invest time, money, expertise and valuable people in such failed idea. No way.
pain but no gain
But be it as it may with options (1) and (2) no complying Russian oil & gas grades are available anywhere outside of Russia, neither today nor in the future, let alone in quantity and quality and required vendor reliability to make any difference. And it would certainly focus the European attention properly if everyone please gets used to this idea, the faster the better, Ursula included. So the supposed ´Russian oil ban´ is impossible simply because Russian oil grades do not have and will not have any complying substitutes for the foreseeable future anywhere above or below ground. Such tremendous conclusion leaves one and only one hellaceous alternative open to be discussed in detail below – namely Option (3) — as from the “Mohammed and the Mountain” paragraph thereafter. But so as to avoid running around in circles proposing impossible chimeras, Europeans at large and most specially EU politicians should not forget that today or in the future Russian oil grades are un-replaceable for European consumption. What´s left is technically dreadful and socio-politically most dangerous as we shall soon read about below as Option (3)
LNG / LPG ?
Lots of suggested overly optimistic “solutions” were posited regarding LNG / LPG. Not so. The comments section of my latest article covered this very thoroughly. Please see link below. Most especially we should all thank SKovacs once again for sharing a lot of his 30-year first-hand knowledge in the industry with us all. So I´ll just summarize and/or quote what this most experienced poster has reported regarding LNG / LPG.
- There are not enough vessels — oil tankers nor lNG tankers — to replace existing pipelines. At least, a few dozen more are needed. How long and what does it take to build these? Who would build them? By when?
- European countries are extremely bureaucratic, so say ~20 years to have 1 LNG terminal ready where this is possible and if not vetoed by the local council. Meanwhile, a pipeline must be connected from the terminal to the existing grid… with further complications at every level. What capacity should these terminals have vis-á-vis the related new pipelines? Nobody can know that today [and thus adding even more load to timing demands]
- Transit times on the tankers change and existing EU southern pipelines are probably at full capacity already.
- Tankers are far more costly to operate as liquefied gas has to be kept liquefied re power-hungry refrigeration.
- Tankers have a more costly service life than other bulk tankers, if only for the regulation/inspection requirements. So therefore they are a higher risk with higher cost per cubic meter of gas transported vs. cheap, reliable, safe, environmentally friendlier pipelines.
- the EU needs several LNG terminals to receive and process liquefied nat-gas. The sites have to be carefully chosen, their expensive environmental impact assessments completed (which can take 5 to 15 years) with engineering design that can also take years with limited room for direct carbon copy of other designs, plus ground preparation construction would take 1-2 years + manufacturing of plant and modules (usually in Korea and China, would they now agree ? ) which need contracts, capacity, materials, etc, lots of time and shipping.
- By the time all is said and done ~15+ years went by per first-hand knowledge…
- All LNG terminals are owned/built/operated by consortiums of gigantic multinational companies, not governments. They cost 10’s of billions to design and build, which need to be borrowed from banks.
- The borrower must prove that it has a solid plan with guarantees in place to repay the loan with interest.
- The owner/operator of the terminal has all sorts of other very important liabilities.
Ref #15 https://thesaker.is/europes-mad-ban-on-russian-oil/
Russia delivers its oil & gas to some key EU locations through low-cost, safe, efficient, door-to-door clean pipelines.
Hungary has proposed to exempt all of Russia´s pipeline delivered oil from current or future EU sanctions or embargo.
Ref #16 https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/More-Oil-From-US-Strategic-Petroleum-Reserve-Heads-To-Europe.html
then nuclear maybe?
Germany had 15 nuclear plants in operation. But no more. The last 3 operating nuclear plants in Germany were scheduled to be decommissioned permanently in 2022. Part of the “Green Agenda” in the EU is to eliminate nuclear plants. France does not approve this, but is having technical trouble with its nuclear plants. France has said it will shut down 50% of its nuclear plants for critical maintenance this year at the worst possible timing imaginable. No uranium as usually imported from Russia is the final monkey wrench shoved merciless inside the guts of the European engine.
Ref #17 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61298791
no time & no volume…
Question: but what if such Russian oil grades substitutes were prospected for and luckily found in the future ? That´s Option (2) which would first require lots of time we don´t have, plus tons of money, and a major serious ´life or death´ European-led major fossils fuels project in order to adequately and successfully explore such hypothetical reservoirs nobody has heard of today and with zero guarantees in a most risky and extraordinarily expensive business The EU Green Plan environmental agenda would not allow for that either. Plus those hypothetical reservoirs would also need to be geologically studied and mapped, with many thousands of sample cores lab tested before wild-catted or factory drilled and fracked (if allowed) to industrially produce and deliver thru today´s non-existent infrastructure in yet unknown reservoirs most surely in the middle of nowhere in politically and environmentally unstable environments.
And as happens 95% of the time, even if luck strikes big in Europe´s favor, such oil grades would only be found in very small rapidly depleting volumes (boom & bust oil towns) not anywhere close to solving the Russian massive oil availability problem Europe now faces per its own misdoings. Of course, also needed would be tons of infrastructure which doesn´t exist today, including many special heavy-duty traffic-intensive roads, thousands of housing quarters, plenty of power generation and power distribution lines and equipment, readily available water in enormously large quantities, environmental and political approval (with “not in my back yard” mentality working against you) regulator´s intervention, reasonable year-round climate, etc. etc. etc. No need to go on, is there ? Oh…
… and no money
Normally, if successful, the above takes 10 to 15 years or more (!) and even if ever found such oil grades would be prohibitively expensive as in UN-payable. Europe simply does not have or earn that kind of money which the ECB cannot print either. We are talking many trillions of euros in an already 990% overloaded financial system ready to break its own back with a single added straw. Christine Madeleine Odette Lagarde – President of the European Central Bank — would not authorize such nonsense, sanctions or no sanctions. She knows better than that.
physical chemistry & engineering
So Russian oil grades do not have available substitutes both in the needed quality and quantities, neither currently under production nor subsurface for future exploitation. Accordingly, the only other possible solution is exactly the other way around ( Option 3 ) which does exist as a most unprobable possibility and is enormously difficult and time + resource consuming to execute. Actually, under current circumstances, this “other” alternative is absolutely impossible to put into practice simultaneously and throughout Europe with the same fixed deadline. When you “phase out” all of the current Russian oil as the EU´s leading politician Ursula von der Leyen emphatically repeats… well, to put it kindly Ursula… you better simultaneously “phase-in” the corresponding operationally-adequate replacement for such. Or else you would be perpetrating the Mother of all Suicides of the Europe we know. Such phase-out / phase-in tango is very difficult to dance about with, let alone without absolutely any help from Russia. So, as if they had not learned anything during the past two centuries, Europeans are happily playing Russian roulette with their own gun.
Mohammed and the mountain
Refineries and chemical plants cannot be fed anywhere near the way you feed your dog, period. This means that if the Mountain won’t go to Mohammed, then Mohammed must come to the Mountain, namely all of these highly technical European chemical plants, refineries and machinery have to be either (a) newly built from scratch or (b) completely re-vamped and retrofitted thru an enormous effort that will consume humongous amounts of euros, human resources, expertise, trials & errors, risk and lots of hard work and lots and lots of TIME we do not have. Enter Option (3)
mission impossible #3
Below please find a very brief descriptive summary of the basic requirements involved for such Option (3) EU-wide project. Actually there are many more, so this listing just pretends to give readers an idea of the category and caliber of the major endeavor Europe would be facing, namely mission impossible Option (3).
All refineries, chemical plants, etc.,etc. etc. in very broad terms need to undergo all of what is explained below which has been detailed only for the sake of completeness and the corresponding credibility. But actually any minimally experienced person that only knows some basic chemistry and process engineering concepts would understand that it should be absolutely unnecessary to continue describing the head-on technical/practical crash that the whole of Europe would be facing if adopting the only remaining game in town, namely Option (3) or better yet Chaos (3)
Chinese fire drill
In sum, in order for installed plants & processing capabilities to remain as they are intact & untouched, per options (1) and (2) Europe would need to effectively find, negotiate, contract, plan for, test, schedule and receive year-round rain or shine come hell or highwater adequate Russian oil grade substitutes in the right quantities, qualities, vendor reliability and prices. That is out of the question as it just doesn´t exist and will not exist either for reasons explained.
The only card left is to modify all current European chemical plants and refineries etc by adapting them to whatever feeds of whatever quality and variations are effectively found, contracted and delivered by non-Russian vendors willing and able to sell to Europe under current circumstances. Oh, by the way, this would have to be done throughout Europe and all at the same time. A Chinese fire drill would be considered a well-organized event in comparison.
Option (3) : modify, adapt, retrofit European refineries, chemical plants, equipment etc for non-Russian substitutes of unknown origin with yet undefined all-around characteristics nor vendor track record. These oils would all be slightly different (not interchangeable) and definitely more expensive. No “toggle-switch” for alternate feed of different oils.
Option (3) requires executing the above modifications to every single European plant and piece of equipment at the very same time and with the same deadline. Of course, this is impossible to do simultaneously. And it´d still be monstrous to do it gradually, but if the decision were ever made it would require Russia´s accommodation so as to allow for a gradually growing part of EU industry modified and fueled by new non-Russian sources while the rest still awaits modification thus still requiring Russian oil grades which Russia would not supply in the way that Europe would need to keep importing. The human resources and expertise required are nonexistent even if every single retired engineer and technician went back to work very hard. IMPOSSIBLE in many ways, just simply IMPOSSIBLE
- Overall agreement on European energy sourcing philosophy (years)
- Role of nuclear energy & LPG / LNG & renewables (years)
- European Green Plan implementation status and goals (open, probably never)
- Oil & gas & coal substitutes and suppliers approval to replace Russian imports (years)
- Schedule, plans, consultant vetting + industry input & feedback for new feeds (years)
- Site selection candidates for each country with adequate location for new plants (many months)
- Pre-feasibility studies + regulator´s Report approval (more years)
- Feasibility studies + regulator´s approval and involvement (yet more years)
- Detailed engineering + plans + specs + drawings, etc.etc ( several years )
- Contractor bidding process re civil works, electromechanical contracts, etc. etc. etc. (years)
- Bid evaluation process, bid homologation and Contractor selection (months)
- Final design, construction, manufacturing of parts, shipping and installation (years)
- Trials, testing, commissioning, optimization, permitting (many months)
- New oil & gas feed contractor pre-selection (many months)
- Contractor bidding process etc. etc. etc. (many months)
- Bid evaluation process, bid homologation and Contractor selection (months)
- Trials and Testing (many months)
All of the above is explained in the simplest possible language for an enormously broad & technical topic but that still affects everybody´s own daily lives. The time periods estimates required mostly do not overlap, they are sequential.
Ref #18 https://www.rt.com/news/555258-uk-energy-heating-cost/
Ref #19 http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/18-signs-that-food-shortages-will-get-a-lot-worse-as-we-head-into-the-second-half-of-2022
Not mentioned, one way out is to rewind back to Feb. 1 for the EU to keep buying Russian oils directly from Russia. Another way out is to keep buying the same Russian oil but from third parties at a far higher price, per “triangulation”.
Meanwhile, hungry bellies may focus stray minds. Ref # 20 https://www.rt.com/news/555490-baerbock-hunger-russia-war-strategy/
In the meantime, Bloomberg says – not exactly an enemy of the EU is it ? – that the Russian Ruble today is the best performing currency in the whole world Ref #21 https://www.rt.com/business/555354-ruble-named-worlds-best-performing-currency/.
The Western European and English speaking countries around the world are already on the brink of being failed stated by don’t of:
1) suicidal deindustrialization policies
2) immigration as a means of replacement of their own people
Lol How Naïve!
Your entire demonstration relies on how the Europeans would want to avoid to suicide their economies!
But that’s precisely the goal of the DAVOS crowd!
They want the Suicide to end up with full power and on top!
Excellent engineering, economic and physics overview.
However, there is one assumption that these 3 faculties always miss.
That is the Malthusian INTENT – such technical people always run from this.
Tom Luongo lays it out : The Real Reason Behind the EU’s Drive to Embargo Russian Oil
But the bigger question is whether or not this conflict escalates to the point where winning is an irrelevant concept. When you see a bloc as powerful as the European Union willing to commit acts of domestic vandalism this big—and blaming the victim of their unbridled aggression—it tells you we are far past the point of rational settlement.
Acts of unprecedented domestic vandalism by the EU on its own population shows a definite intent to destroy industrial civilization, no matter what reasonable trained people think or say. Russia and China, India, REFUSE, and are aggressively attacked simply for refusal to depopulate. It is why Greens have become fanatic pro-war. The utter failure of the COP26 Great Reset has taken the masks off.
Time for techies to take off the kid gloves!
You have hit the nail…
What if the point is to destroy the oil market so that Russia has no possible market no matter what global misery it causes?
Russia will have itself and large sections of Asia as markets, unless the “global misery” in the form of a nuclear World War 3.
Russia and Iran are already well-placed as suppliers to Asia, including the occupied quislings Japan & South Korea.. This represents 1/4 of the world’s population, whose future consumption will grow by leaps & bounds..
Europe should be abandoned to its own devices.. Let it scramble for its energy resources from the minor players who will charge premium prices for doing business with cut-throat Fascists..
Do you think it’s Russia’s interest to see connections with Europe be artificially severed just because of the decisions/actions of elites in the USA (separated from the Eurasian landmass by a whole ocean or two)? Does the USA (the instigator) not profit from these broken bridges?
Do you think it is in Russians’ best interest _for_them_ to tilt at american designated windmills?
Or is it more profitable to preseve Russians?
There are good reasons why the americans slyly preach “punish the aggressors”. Especially against those whom the american oligarchs see as their own enemies.
Russians need all their resources, energies, and strengths, to protect themselves, and their children, and their friends.
americans will be pleased to cheer on their victims, as they waste themselves, seeking pointless revenge.
Revenge is a dish best served bitter and cold. Health and modest wealth are happy revenges served hot and savory, especially within eyesight of bitter old zombies.
Well, I still see it as USAian interference in Euro-Russian affairs, it’s still immoral, and I still don’t think that Russia should support the USA’s immoral actions. If this makes it simpler.
Thanks again bonbon, as always your comments are good food for thought and definetly welcome.
Please keep them coming guy, your input is most valuable and helps to “fuel” (!!) the analysis and debate.
bonbon, I always follow Tom Luongo with some mixed feelings I admit. For example, in this specific case, methinks that whichever the reason behind these events, be it by a Malthusian suicidal intent or whatever… and even very hardly imposed such as in this case — be it fueled by Davos, or stupidity or blindness or most naïve political self-interest … or whatever ever whatever… — STILL such population reduction goals will NEVER come to fruition ( this way at least, maybe an interstellar comet falling on us may do it ) simply because the pitchforks will gain the street waaaay waaaay waaay before the goal is even approached, let alone reached.
It´s history: we are all 9 meals away from chaos and an ugly chaos it will be this time around because these people are intelligent, educated, willing and capable, and also piled up — most specially in Europe — badly crowded. That´s one essential requirement of revolutions which have always been made and succeeded thanks to educated middle classes, mind you. And the other required ingredients are there also, so…
I understand and accept the possibility of such depopulation design behind the Davos-EU initiative, etc. etc.,etc. but in NO way do I see it becoming a reality. Europeans will stop freezing themselves to death way before dying. They will REPLACE the political class, — yes OUT you go — and make not necessarily “friends” but at least arms-length business associates with Russia, and duly pay them for their produce.
As I explained in the “Franz marries Natasha” paragraph all of this was thought out to “death” many years ago after the most intense post WW2 European debate process you can ever dream of. It was talked and diced and sliced way beyond imagination ( I was there witnessing the process live like a fly on the wall) sideays, crossways, from bottom up, from top down… and the conclusion was unite or unite, otherwise we die thru WW3.
If all that “union” ends up meaning that Europe becomes an intellectualized extension peninsula of Eurasia, so be it. Europeans are not stupid, just plain bloody stubborn. They never learn and go back to silly past mistakes. Anglo-Saxons are the worse of them all, which explains the US involvement behind this also.
bonbon, let´s trust humans, including Europeans (!!!)
No, they´ll stop the nonesense before the nonesense succeeds, trust me, trust them.
I know it´s difficult to accept, but mankind has been there before, done that, got the T-shirt.
Your are welcome, Jorge.
As Tom Luongo says he used to be a libertarian, and reformed. From the finance angle he has a refreshing reminder.
Of course Europeans are to trust, when the fog clears – from Leibniz comes the idea of linking to China via the great Eurasian heartland, today called the BRI, later advanced by the 1st Colorado Governor.
Leibniz is the father of powered transport – he showed Frenchman Papin how to increase powered motor’s efficiency, which would do the word of 100 men. This industrial revolution was appropriated by Britain a bit later. Today Germany and France are the motor of Europe. The industrial revolution left no world corner untouched.
Trust is fine, verification is better, as Reagan said (forget Teddy Roosevelt’s big stick mutterings).
I’ve actually said no such thing. What I’ve said, to be clear, is that I have my principles which are still strictly libertarian (and you can think of that what you will) but that when it comes to political and economic analysis I use it as a lens through which to view the world to predict where we’re headed.
But it is not a system to impose on others… it’s kinda against the entire philosophical conceit.
Ron and Rand Paul, libertarians and Austrian’s AFAIK, are major pro-peace figures.
Rand blocking $40 billion for Ukraine and demanding an audit, and Ron demanded a FED audit.
Still, it sure looks like Sachs and the NeoCons shock therapy was enforced Austrianism on Russia after 1990.
Glazyev must drive these insane!
Point of Order, Jorges. Where you wrote; “Europeans are not stupid, just plain bloody stubborn. They never learn and go back to silly past mistakes.”,
Isn’t to be “just plain bloody stubborn”, to “never learn and go back to silly past mistakes” pretty much one textbook definition of being “stupid”?!
Marry that up with; “To keep on doing the same thing over and over, again, and expect a different result”, and that’s got Europe covered.
Europe’s devolution into a “hereditary aristocracy” (h/t Michael Hudson) is complete, as seen particularly in the (unelected) ‘Executive Management Ranks’ of the European Commission, it being welded as it is to those other pillars of ‘elite exceptionalist thought’, such as the WEF, World Bank, IMF etc, is exemplified by von der Lugen, who not only clings to the aristocratic framing in the name, but descends directly from very nasty Nazi stock, as well as slave traders, and slave owners. It’s in the DNA – nothing ‘good’ can come from such a devolution.
Excellent summation of the essentials of chemical processing and engineering, and associated logistics, BTW.
On the matter of logistics, where you aware the father of the WEF’s Klaus Schwab was not only a supplier of engineered products, but also a provider of ‘Safe House’ accommodations along the ‘Ratlines’ out of Europe post-WWII? Apples just don’t fall far from trees.
Hi David, and thank you for your favorable judgement regarding this article.
David, I am always a student as learning is my confessed addiction, the more I learn the better.
And you folks with your comments make me feel comfortable and specially with your constructive criticism which I certainly welcome because we can all learn from it including myself. And also because it means you focused on what I wrote, otherwise you could not have found objections, comments, or whatever. That is critical thinking, not flattery. So I truly enjoy having a good critical and attentive audience, what else would an author want, guys think about it ? Certainly not an echo chamber no ? what for huh ?
And you now what I like most David ?
The comments section right here right now precisely because of what I have just said.
To me, this is home guys, and I feel at ease enjoying your good company here with you all.
I guess it shows, does it not ?
David, you convinced me with your point of order “gotcha”, yes.
You are right, and I have got to be wrong as per my own definitions.
Correct, Europeans have an inbred knack for fighting each other badly like very poor brothers and sisters that were not taught basic natural laws that good natured humans should abide to. The problem is that on the other hand Europeans overwhelm everybody with their capabilities and creativity. But if they cannot make it sustainable there is a major original sin just sitting there in their soul waiting for the instant to incredibly crop up yet again and ruin it all. You were right David, I was wrong.
The concession’s unnecessary Jorge, it was a minor point I often make about European ideological intransigence leading them in the opposite direction to that of the well being of the great mass of Europeans. They are blinded by a range of ideologies, the worst of all combinations being Neoliberalism married up with European Exceptionalism.
Coincidentally, not long after reading your piece, I found myself making this comment on Twitter, in a conversation about how Europe ‘understanding’ Russia’s ‘schedule’ in Ukraine would ensure Ukraine would ‘win’!!;
“Not many in this thread have a single clue, but you seem to, Nick.
Jorge here abs right, anyone with a skerrick of understanding of chemical/process engineering, logistics and globalised markets should damn well know that;
What ‘Nick’ had written that drew that response from me;
“Nick [email protected]·9h
Who provided them with a schedule. Currently the longer this war takes the better for Russia. The economies of the west will be in full recession/depression within 6 months. How much love do you think EU citizens will have for Ukraine when they can’t afford to heat their homes?”
Keep an eye on the WEF’s Cyber Polygon hosted by Sberbank in July. Should this event go forward, it’s a big clue as to what’s really happening.
Russia continues implementing 4IR protocols within the country, as well as continuing to inject children with its genetic slurry.
Tom Luongo has clearly been gulping the kool-aid, which is obvious when talks about Russia’s poor military poor performance in Ukraine. The article is then robbed of any credibility it might just have had.
Ain’t that the truth!
If you cannot separate my willingness to be skeptical of Russia’s stated victories from my political and economic analysis of the situation then that really doesn’t say much now does it?
There are things that Andrei, Jorge, etc. they say I disagree with. That does not, however, in my mind invalidate EVERYTHING they say. Points can be made within a difference of opinion.
I have drunk zero kool-aid about the situation in Ukraine. Russia clearly went for it in Kiev and failed. That doesn’t mean I think they haven’t achieved in other areas or even over-achieved (which is a matter of debate). Being realistic about what’s happened on the battlefield (a point Andrei himself has made here on the blog many times) is the only way we’re going to properly assess what’s going on.
FYI, if you think Russia hasn’t had its nose bloodied by NATO’s assistance of the UAF in the North, then you aren’t listening very carefully to what they are saying in the West now. Because if Russia had won decisively there, there wouldn’t be: Finland and Sweden going into NATO, the US sending $53 billion in aid, Victoria Nuland trying to bribe Erdogan in Turkey, NATO believing they can push Russia out of the Donbass and all the rest of this.
It doesn’t matter if what they believe is true or not… What matters is that they believe it. And they believe that for a reason. And if you’re answer to me is that it’s because they are insane and stupid, then allow me to pre-emptively do to you what you did to me and invalidate everything you say.
If you have a better argument, I’m all ears.
Please don’t assume anything. I think Russia’s doing just fine here. This war is unfolding exactly as I expected it to, once it began (and go read my work from late February). But, sadly, that also means that we’re looking at further escalation rather than not. I would have been my sincere wish for Russia to have forced a surrender in Kiev…. less bloodshed, less Neocon braying… etc.
But, they didn’t and here we are. If anyone has drunk the kool-aid it is those who think Russia has executed perfectly. They have not, but they have well enough to get the primary job done.
Hi Tom, and welcome to our humble abode.
OK, I have not followed everything here, but respond to a couple of your comments in this post.
The move on Kiev you do not get in terms of what Russia was doing and why. The military experts tell us that it was merely a ‘fixing operation’, i.e., denying maneuverability to whatever and whomever is in Kiev. There are reams of information as to what Russia did at the time and why, and I won’t delve into the nitty gritty now. But understanding is a must. In addition, this whole ‘Russia lost Kiev’ or an opportunity there, is purely Ukie propaganda. Russia did not march on Kiev. (With 20 thousand 30 thousand troops? Who is kidding here?.)
Then secondly, there is no objective to ‘take Kiev’. So, perhaps you miss the reasons for Russia’s military technical presence and the SMO in the Ukraine. It is denazification and demilitarization. Forcing anything on Kiev is not within those objectives and would have done nothing.
Regarding the Sweden and Finland NATO membership, that one is not in the bag yet. But it may as well be in the bag because those two countries have been friends of NATO for a long time. Let’s step back to Russia’s two proposed treaties in December/January which were ignored. We cannot forget that the issue is NATO’s move to the North and the breaking of all agreements and weapons treaties which has skewed the security balance in Europe. That is the problem – not Russia’s operation in the Ukraine. It is bloody in spots, but Russia will denazify and demilitarize. Escalation will not be as a result of the Ukraine. If we see escalation it would be because it is baked in NATO’s cake and because Russia said that the indivisibility of security principle is now naught and they will not stand for it.
Who says Russia should execute perfectly?
But here we are on a gas and oil thread.
I can see that Jorge has a background in the complexities of oil, but Tom made some good points.
1. The possibility that the oil sanctions can cause Russia to lose 20% of earnings. The sanctions are not having the desired, so everyday the west comes up with more and more ideas.
Already the sanctions are hurting the west, but they still keep pushing for more. It is quite obvious that the population will suffer. Tom says it’s the Western ‘davos’ group and not necessarily the USA. I say that group controls all of them, and are calling the shots and the people be damned.
2. Everyday the west say they are winning the war but if that is true why keep pushing this sanction madness? Why are all of them lining up to talk with Putin? I know why.
It is because they are losing.
Karl, thanks for your input and participation.
BTW, please all posters be advised that sometimes I may take time — or never — to reply to or interact with you guys. The reason is partly available time as we are ALL busy souls otherwise would not be knowledgeable enough to participate here, right ?
But also there is this problem that after, say, 100 comments… well it´s difficult to re-read everything over and over many many many times over … from Comment #1 down to the very bottom… to see who added what where, you follow ? It is far easier to scroll aaaalllll the way down and see if a brand NEW comment has been posted.
But this would sorta violate the unwritten interaction rules and the excellent dynamics of the thread, no ?
Well, at any rate it is easier for me to check out the latest comment posted at the very end and not comments in between, just sayin´…
Now back to your post Karl the only KEY difference with what Tom and I say is that a 20% Russian loss would most probably mean an 80% EU loss and that´s game over. Russia suffers, the EU vanishes.
“Russia clearly went for it in Kiev and failed.”
I follow your videos and blog with much interest. Thank you.
But, like myself, you are not a street fighter. You are too smart for that. 😊
Here is the great Muhammad Ali showing you how a feint is carried out in the boxing rink. I hope you will never need these skills.
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗲𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗕𝗼𝘅𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝘆 𝗠𝘂𝗵𝗮𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗱 𝗔𝗹𝗶
I read Mr. Luongo’s article a couple of days ago, and I must say that it makes the ecologically holier-than-thou EU, with their purported costly transition to renewable energy sources, sound like a pack of raving hypocrites in their mad intent on punishing Russia whatever the cost, because the cost will entail a massive waste of precious non-renewable fossil fuel which, under their plan, must be somehow disposed of without ever being used. They figure that Russian oil, no longer bought or accepted into Europe, will have to be capped at the well head, burned off or somewhere discarded because there will be no place to store it, as most of this storage capacity is already full up. Capping wells somehow degrades them (I am NO petroleum engineer, so don’t ask why) and makes the remaining oil in the ground less recoverable if and when the well is restarted or re-tapped, hence wasting the precious fluid that so many lives have been lost fighting over. Plus, the missing and wasted Russian oil would simply have to be replaced by more oil being pumped from some other venues. This is a sin against the very Mother Earth they claim to be trying to protect with their grand transition… and all simply to harm Russia! Disgusting! The Russians would be better off giving that excess oil away to poor countries. At least it would cultivate friends and allies and would undercut the American producers who think they are going to make a market killing with Russian oil out of the picture. Just goes to show how truly sick these people are in their mad plans to shaft Russia. What makes them so absolutely cussed that they are willing to screw over millions of additional people, nay, the planet itself, just to harm Russia? They kind of deserve to be nuked, but that would also harm too many others innocents.
Oil ban is the least of the worries
This latest video by SCOTT RITTER AND RAY MCGOVERN
Is a must watch.
Doesn’t matter what way you look at it. Russia is going to have to go to full mobility and total war to deal with the multiple threats that are starting to appear on the horizon.
Either now or later and later will probably be too late. So might as well declare total war with Ukraine now.
Leaving Western Ukraine untouched was always a head scratcher and looks now like a strategic mistake.
A fantastic discussion that sums up the situation Russia has found themselves in perfectly.
Billy, you’re floating about in the back 40.
I know exactly how hard Jorge worked to present an understandable picture for us. And you want to wipe it off the board with something you consider more important. You probably did not think about it, but it is disrespectful to one of our writers to great level.
I would ask all to not comment on Billy’s wizz-bang important thing here, but go and post it in a sitrep or somewhere else. I would love to pull it apart anyway but put it somewhere else, even if you have to ask the mods to delete it.
Everyone, please DO NOT respond to this here.
Good points, but a simple link with short description would be useful. I found that video very revealing and may not have gotten to it otherwise.
No worries Amarynth,
Worthy of a post on its own on the Saker.
And a discussion.
Look forward to it.
Better without Garland Nixon.
Talked too much himself but basically ignored every point that McGovern contributed—good points, too!!
I read both and.
Waiting with anticipation of your critique.
I recommend this excellent article by Luongo, it further complements Jorge’s article
I read the article this morning,and it jogged my mind The Saker direction.
Oscar, Foster, thanks for your input and acknowledgement.
Commentariati at large…most specially Oscar and Foster.
Above I responded to bonbon on this same aspect of this topic.
Please refer to it and after that I´ll be glad to address any additional comment or question you may have.
I find that Tom Luongo usually helps lots to crack our minds wide open and force us to THINK
This includes me, so Tom is highly valuable, but…
As I try to explain short & sweet, Tom may get close sometimes but does not necessarily get to it.
Am I making myself clear ?
If not, please re-ask or comment.
Canada will ship oil sand in ore carriers to be unloaded in Hamburg , what could go wrong with that
This must be a directive from Trudeau.
Why not harness the vast potentials of the EU for geothermal electricity production to replace the Russian Oil,Gas, Coal etc.? That seems to be a good idea, isn’t it? Ursula should look into that. Anyway, the Europeans must also take into account the import of oil/gas from Russia is in fact a god sent privilege because they are using Russia’s interior vast infrastructures built and developed since decades ago.
Geothermal energy is like solar in that it´s just a SOURCE, and a good one at that.
But just like solar – or better yet nuclear — geothermal as a base-load power supplier requires a helluva of a cumbersome structure weeee expensive non-existent infrastructure and time consuming to mean anything. Maybe for 2050 geothermal is one possibility.
But you need sites close-by smack in the middle of urban areas (where exacty, not in my back yard) plenty of water not available many times as needed, boilers, generators, transmission lines and equipment, etc. etc. etc.
Get the picture ?
Same goes for other “renewables” as explained in the article very briefly.
Thanks for your explanation. Yes of course, like all other methods of electricity generation geothermal is too costly and uneconomical at this stage. This is the whole point. So what the European think tanks are thinking when they say they’re going to cut oil/gas imports from Russia? Are they going to replace it from the Middle East? Very strange given the high level of geopolitical turbulence in this region, it should be very difficult planning long-term energy requirements for EU.
maskazer, I fully agree.
And as explained in my “The Saker” article a week ago ( good additional reading, BTW ) believe it or not it´s all pink unicorn wishfull thinking…yep. Middle East sourcing ahahahahh that´s the last place they´ll ever get their oil from, albeit Russian-type of needed light API gravity oils for distillates not anywhere around there — or anywhere else for that matter — plus trouble all around, seaborne delivery only with no fleet available, M.E. is politically alligned with Russia, not the West (!!) So, forget Middle East sourcing, the EU already knows that by now.
European think-tanks and politicians must have been smoking something truly strong lately.
Or else, with all due respect, they could all be gloriously ignorant thinking that these feedstocks are “plug & play”. No, they are definetly not like pet food, as I can´t afford 1st. brand pellets for my dog so I´ll switch to whatever-brand. No Sir, no, it´s FAR more complicated than that, sorry. And they should have known, don´t you think ?
As I tried to make my case with focused details in this article, it is literally / practically impossible for Europe to ban Russia´s oil. But think-tanks and politicians do not read or listen to guys like me, or Russians scientists for that matter. They only listen to themselves in their glorious intellectual fart-cloud of sorts isolated from reality while they zip their after-dinner cognacs. Until reality hits them hard in the muzzle distributing their teeth all over the place…
What ever happened to Hot Rocks Geodynamics, down under, pray tell?
“Hot Rocks 2”? Melbourne Uni Professor Urges More Geothermal Energy
Now that the Aussies and AUKUS are gung-ho for nuke subs, annoying Paris, would it be too much to ask Ursula about Hot Rocks?
First, the geothermal potential for electricity generation is both limited and very unevenly distributed through the globe.
Second, it is not cheap.
BUT the potential for district heating systems is huge, because the needed temperature is way lower. That makes economic sense.
However, building a district heating system for a pre-existing town takes decades, if only because the existing appliances in flats and houses have to be replaced before the layed pipes can be connected.
Also, the (stupid) policy now is to go all electric. All your eggs in the same basket, sort of. That leads to a very fragile society.
I would do the opposite, that is try and find non-electric solutions for all critical systems (water, sewage, fluid circulation in heating systems, etc) so as to make sure that they are going to be reliable whatever the circumstances. Old solutions often exist but have been fogotten and nobody makes the equiment any longer.
The change of mind might take even more time than the implementation.
Just an exemple related to cooking.
A relative got a prize from the French ministry of agriculture in the thirties for a methan tank “burning” horse dung. Better fertiliser plus gas. (That farm kept a horse because a tractor is too broad for the pear orchard.) They took themselves through WW2 without fuel problem.
BUT it was extremely difficult to build a digester i France prior to this year.
Just the other day i heard on the Swedish radio that south-western Sweden could produce big amounts of biogas from waste. It could have been done allmost hundred years ago, but somehow it did not get aceptance in that region (even though Uppsala’s buses have long run on biogas, in the east of the country).
Rigid minds in aliance with lazy brains and established interests have caused huge costs for Humanity.
Believe it or not, the West downplaying the importance of gas, oil and coal, has a purpose in price control. Sounds a bit fantastic, but take now for example; talking it down — which is an outgrowth of the climate lie, has been hijacked by the Western (oil consumers) neocon Right. For it not only holds down price for consumers (even China) it robs producers of their wealth. (Show me a neocon Right-winger that doesn’t want cheap gas and to rob Russians.???) Unfortunately, it has been taken too seriously (by the climate kooks) and has discouraged investment in energy companies.
Of course, the dismantling of oil industries in Russia and US (Biden administration’s recent cancellation of two lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico and one lease sale in Alaska’s Cook Inlet) plays into the imposition of ‘the green’ policies.
The us con gress is bought and paid for with the $$$ they are grifting themselves as the nwo races to destroy the systems that work in order to force their one world control plans.
The thing going for the free peoples is the incompetence of the henchmen. However much damage will ensue on the way to the imposed destruction of the us and west.
Don’t feed the machine.
Fantastic article …thank you. I wonder if will expand the system beyond current gas.
Question…could Pres Putin say…gotta set up ruble bank accounts mechanisms just like the gas?? Leyen thinks that she can get euros dollars to such an a deemable approved account…but the payers sign statement that payment.has been made…transaction contractually completed.
Will Russia still insist and say nope …until converted to rubles and then confirmed recieved by supplier.
Can he say….you gotta pay in advance too????
Thanks Jonathan, your favorable comment is much appreciated.
And also makes the effort worthwhile as your questions clarify and focus all-important details.
Good point J.J.
Yes, as you suggest, V.P. can eventually require oil payment in Rubles, of course. Why not ? Can he get away with it, will the Europeans pay up ? I think they have to, or else. Ask Bulgaria. My guess is that — as my wife would do, Heaven forbid (!!) — for now he´s just testing the waters.
Also, for the record, the EU has played games with their “Schrödinger” euros which Russia has effectively blown out of the water having them all at the EU Parliament suffer their tantrum hissy fits, trust me. Europe hates the situation the Russians forced them into. Problem is, like you say, it could get MUCH worse. Or like Woody Allen would say, they don´t want the hen, but they need the eggs…
Johnathan, many EU countries have accepted the Russian proposal for nat-gas payments with dual accounts in the same bank. Many others have announced they will also comply with such Rubles payment demand just as well. That´s a win for V.P. of course while many others still sit on the fence for the time being.
For how long it depends on the calendar and the weather which is not helping any… and still summer heat consumes A/C and refrigeration power, lots of it, which requiere natural gas for power generation. Those that oppose the Rubles payment system, once the contract expires will just get cut off the Russian feed and would depend on ever-lower storage volumes. Same goes for electricity per Finland right now or any other non-payment of anything. If we now were in autumn / winter those future late-approvers should start worrying lots… or freezing to death. So the EU is fully divided in this regard (and in other policies also) so V.P. is winning the political battle mesays, no ?
But there´s more to it than meets the eye, so I suggest re-reading
At any rate, the nat-gas contracts are not valid, entered into, and in force until the payment transaction is not completed. Remember, two accounts in the same RUSSIAN bank.
Step 1 = deposit euros or dollars, thus complying with the EU sanction…
Step 2 = Russian bank converts euros or dollars into Rubles.
And until Step 2 is satisfactorily completed the payment has not been made and the contract is not yet valid.
So Russia has inverted the terms. If you want our nat-gas pay us only with Rubles — or physical gold (!!) — but not euros or dollars as the EU could rob them yet again, no ? So euros or dollars are a just temporary credit as only Rubles matter and the transaction is not contractually completed until Russia gets its Rubles.
Oil & gas supply contracts are almost always payed for in advance, that´s a standard term, so…
What varies is the length of the contract, from months to years.
In the EU-Russia situation, most oil & gas & coal contracts usually last some xyz months.
thanks do much for your reply.
From the above…. it would seem to me… that the least kinetic way to bring NATO to heel…
To ban all resource exports to it!
The declared position on the part of Russia….
NATO has sufficient resources to stage war games threatening Russia…
NATO has sufficient resources to emplace war materiel in Finland, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland
NATO leaders openly advocate “regime change” of Russia.
Russia should not make the same mistake Stalin made…. when he exported resources to NAZI Germany
Russia should prevail upon it’s friends to withold sales of critical war materiel…. oil/gas/uranium/wheat/titanium/rare-earths/lithium to all NATO countries.
I work in the natural gas sector and we are experiencing massive labor problems. Workers want higher wages and are leaving elsewhere. The cost of living is rising especially gas here in the lower mainland of BC, Canada. Half a tank of gas for ones truck 80.00. etc, etc. So I’m living what Gail Tverberg wrote back in Dec. of 2021:
It is the lack of jobs that pay well that tends to hold down commodity prices below the prices producers require. Ultimately, it is the lack of sufficient jobs that pay well that tends to bring the whole economy down. Most researchers have missed this important point.
 In the period leading up to collapse, wages fail to rise with the cost of required services. This leads to increasingly unhappy workers. Healthcare costs and college costs are especially problematic, because their costs have been rising faster than costs in general.
Gerry, your point is very well taken.
HUMAN resources, remember guys ?
Sorry WEF, but this is about all people, not just intellectualloidic technocrats.
I know some few things about the potential HR problem but would need to brush up my industry contacts.
Not enough knowledgeable humans around to make things run — fortunately people are still very much needed — then things don´t run or don´t run as needed / expected. I touched upon this aspect in my article but Gerry you have now prompted me to study it in further depth. It may very well turno out be the weakest link in this chain, most specially if the operational aspects get really complicated by trying to implement any of my impossible options. Frustration and job abandonment will prevail in that case. Good point Gerry.
Well the Brits are screwed too. Russian news sites are forecasting the impending closure of up to a third of Brit fish & chip shops, which–seriously–would be a culinary and cultural disaster. The reason: shortage of sunflower oil (source: Russia, Ukraine) for frying, and white fish (Russia). Without pubs (they’ve been closing for years) and fish & chips there’s nothing left. If India stops exporting tea, the whole place will be on its knees.
Jorge, thank you for a monumental essay. The work gone into this piece is clearly evident.
Ban! ban! ban! Madness? Or deliberate demand destruction?
What other explanation is there than a deliberate closure of the European economy under another falsehood, or pretext? We need to reduce number of “deplorables.”
Monetary system flashing red.
You put it so well in in this paragraph:
“Europe simply does not have or earn that kind of money which the ECB cannot print either. We are talking many trillions of euros in an already 990% overloaded financial system ready to break its own back with a single added straw.”
The few dictate to the many that we are on a finite planet with dwindling energy reserves according to the “chosen few” who pull the strings.
You don’t need oil energy to live, work, keep warm, make goods, travel, eat imported food.
Neo – fuedalism, or neo – eugenics?
Take your pick.
“Absolute Zero” refers to the UK’s commitment to reach “zero emissions” by the year 2050. A vision for the future of humanity by globalists?
The first pretext to shutdown the global economy was the response to the WHO directed pandemic.
Now phase two.
From the release of The Club of Rome’s Limits to Growth report in 1972 to the birth of Agenda 21; the 1992 UN Earth Summit; COP 26 Glasgow 2021, to the roll out of The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, ideas become policies by manufacturing consent through mass media propaganda. If compliance is not forthcoming willingly then force must be used, as during the response to a pandemic.
The “problem” is “the growing human population.” Once upon a time eugenicists used the fig-leaf of religion. They were anointed by God to be rulers.
Nowadays they shamelessly use the fig-leaf of science to justify their beliefs, their doctrines, and their demands.
Whether its energy, financial collapse, or “total hybrid war” to prolong US dominance, or all three, there is no going back.
Colin Miller, thank you for your acknowledgement.
Your points are valid and well taken.
Colin, I´m a bit short of time right now.
I suggest you check out my comments made earlier to poster bonbon with similar concerns at pretty much the very beginning.
Jorge, the discourse here goes toward helping those who participate make sense of the geopolitical and socioeconomic world as we view it through online forums blogs and websites. Who watches anything on mainstream?
I read books as much as possible.
If we were to distill all the articles, videos and comments just on this website alone what would the underlying, or rather unstated message be?
This brings me to my question for you, “how does knowing the essence of the distillation of all information help us practically to survive and benefit”?
Throughout literally hundreds of websites online a common theme is often expressed in similar words as in the paragraph below:
“The only option is to organize in local communities of like-minded people to try and survive the coming storm. Get out of cities. Prep as much as you are able, with enough food, water, and fuel to sustain your family for an extended period of time. Stock up on guns, ammo, cash, gold, silver, and barterable items. On whatever plot of land you occupy, try to raise some food, and if possible become friendly with local farmers. No one can escape what is coming, as it will be global in nature, but you can take steps now to increase your chances of survival. Those with no survival skills will not survive. If you are not prepared in mind, body, and spirit for what is coming, your future will be bleak. Only those already awake are likely to read this anyway, so good luck and Godspeed to you all.”
Jorge, like you I enjoy the rapport, the camaraderie and the writing down and sharing of ideas that are aired in public.
My purpose here in this reply is to float more topics that may give others pause for thought and introduce new ideas as well as learn more so that I for one can be better informed and prepared for anything. As much as practically possible anyway.
I constantly research topics like energy, monetary systems, the theory of money and credit, Sociology, International Relations, Farming, and House construction, to name just a few. And that’s not easy with a young family to raise in the current environment.
That’s more than enough in reply and please keep up your excellent work!
Tutto bello tutto corretto tutto giusto,
Ma perché la Russia deve tenere in vita un Europa che continua a sostenere con armi e soldi un esercito di ucronazi che ha come unico obbiettivo la distruzione della Russia,
Un bel blocco delle esportazioni di energia e nel giro di 6 mesi il nemico non esisterebbe più.
All good all correct all right,
But why should Russia keep alive a Europe that continues to support with weapons and money an army of ukronazis whose only goal is the destruction of Russia,
A nice blockade of energy exports and within 6 months the enemy would no longer exist.
Could be that Russia keeps the interests of the hoi polloi in mind and, unlike the USA (the instigator), tries not to harm said hoi polloi. Just a guess on my part.
Also, imagine the poor PR that would result if Russia cut off gas supplies, versus having the EU elites do it themselves.
In a sane world committed to reducing fossil fuel consumption and CO2 et al pollution, time is necessary to carefully engineer energy substitutes as well as methods to reduce energy use. Obviously, we do not live in a sane world, and the Washington neocons and Brussels Russiaphobes have really screwed the pooch.
Jorge, thank you for the education you have given this old boy since you appeared upon this Saker blog.
Have a pleasant day sir.
Sorry, I think I mistakenly wrote a comment about Finkelstein on the wrong thread.
Just a heads-up that I have been posting here at The Saker blog for quite a while as Taffy.
Taffy, you must be a highly-experienced old boy… but not older than me I bet… ahhahahh !
Dear Taffy, my sincere THANKS and warm bear hug to you.
Taffy, you know how much the audience encouragement means to me.
I said it before and I´ll repeat it again: mine is a very lonely and stressfull task.
I also try to keep it interesting and lively and colorfull which means a bit more work that I don´t mind either
I also care much about commentariati opinions because for obvious reasons I learn from them.
SKovacs is a good recent educational example.
Commentariati also let me know how well I´m coming through (or not) to The Saker´s audience.
I personally feel that my role here is to set up a reasonable basis for debate and only as a starting point.
I am no better than anyone else and I don´t have uncontrovertible truths either.
I do have though a life-long ultra high level and most intensive professional experience (ehem cof cof ) that I want and need to share. What else could I do, make money ?!!? Being famous ??? what for ???? NOT at my age, I don´t care about money or fame any more. I care about being reasonably healthy and about the future of this extraordinary mankind that God bestowed upon planet Earth. I care about little kids, good company and also good food… preferably with good cold sparkling wine…
And I could have lots of the wrong experience too, so always be very careful and don´t take anything I say for ganted… Hmmmm… I have been proven wrong before, but that was many years ago. I do have lots of grey hair now, so I just need to get a bit baldy to be complete…
Take care Taffy !!!
I, Taffy, am very appreciative of your work, as I have expressed on earlier threads.
Just to clarify that Taffyboy is not me, Taffy.
Perhaps Taffyboy will chose a handle that is not so easily confused with mine.
Keep up the great work!
Sorry about the confusion, and presumably you in your capacity here as a commenter, are more elegantly qualified to keep the Taffy handle. It is a very nice name which bears my calico cat, Taffyboy. We are very fond of him, as we are of honest folk we meet during our stay on this planet.
Retired from sewage, and it was a pleasure to take care of business to the plant from the initial flush.
You have a pleasant day also, Taffy.
(red meat, red wine, cheesecake, and Grand Marnier)
Taffy was the name of our beloved family dog, a lovely cocker spaniel who put up with a lot from us four children, and sired many puppies. This was deep in the previous century.
Thank you for choosing a different name.
Mercouris and others think a very simple solution to all this will be as follows –
1) Russia fills an oiltanker ship with oil.
2) Wiithout leaving port the oil is sold to an intermediary.
3) The intermediary may then sell the oil on to yet a second intermediary.
4) This intermediary then delivers and sell the oil to Europe.
The Europeans will be paying higher prices for their oil of course due to the intermediaries, but they can delude themselves that they are not buying Russian oil.
I would also add a an additive to de-russify the oil. If that is an expensive American mixture then that probably gives additional legal safety. There is probably something from the Biden group.
A long time ago, I visited Harstad in the far north of Norway. The local fishermen were very wealthy. They had a deal with Russian fishermen. The Russians would sell their fish for dollars on the high seas – fish caught in the Russian sector. The Norwegians would process the fish as though they caught them in the Norwegian sector. The fish processors would export the fish and under-invoice to some offshore company that they privately own. The fish would be sold to the real buyers. The massive profits offshore would go towards paying the Russian fishermen.
It may seem complicated, but it is quite simple. No doubt local politicians and tax-collectors got their cut via holidays in warmer climates and so on.
Human ingenuity has no limits.
Why so many words?
I respect Finkelstein, so I don’t understand why he makes this so complicated.
Every person, every country, has a right to self-defense
It is patently obvious that Russia has been under attack since the breakup of the USSR.
There has been a decades-long unremitting escalation of the forms and avenues of attack
This is easily tracked.
The final straw was intel of a “conventional” attack, one commonly recognized as an actual military attack.
Of course Russia has the right to act preemptively to prevent further attacks.
The discovery of extremely unsalubrious biolabs on the territory of the Ukraine just adds to the unacceptable mix.
By this time Ukrainians of all political stripes should have figured out that they are the fall guys here—the dispensable population.
Furthermore, here are too many weasley statements meant to make his comments “acceptable” via his partially accepting certain notions that actually are not true.
Excelent analysis but missing one very and extreme important variable. Even if all these technical issues are matched, how on Earth can you thrust oil producers like the African countries, that are notoriuosly unstable and in the brink of more political and social unrest because of the impending famine or oil producers from the middle east having grave political and economical issues with the west. Thus Europe have the guts to go to war and send troops to keep the flow of oil? What we see is just pure rethoric from the EU but the real world is much more sinister and troubling. This is just the begining, last time we saw nazism, is the creature coming out of it´s grave?
Anpac, thanks for your input, we do not disagree.
The effective political and social instabilities which you point out are part of the reasons why the not-trustable “beach-front bazaar with seaborne delivery only” of this crazy non-sensical EU proposal is not match for the Russian vendor to which Europe is used to and desperately needs. It´d be like going from a modern jet airplane to horseback.
I believe that there is a typo mistake in that you probably meant to say “trust” and not “thrust” am I correct ?
A bad doctor is a good executor.
A psychopathic politician is a better executor.
the word “reliable” is worth a premium not a discount which will be inevitable
China across the border no pesky state like Ukraine in between – and no disputes as to quality /amounts etc
all in currency freely exchangible with the Yuan
so EU is the same with NS1/ 2 oil as well
The laws of engineering.
– Infrastructure takes 20 years to build.
– If you can drive your car fast today, it’s because someone built that road step by step. If you can click and see a web site on another continent in milliseconds, it’s because a ship very slowly laid out a cable on the sea floor first. You can’t hurry these things.
– GDP, inflation, jobless numbers are easy to fake. Energy and electricity numbers are hard to fake. Things just stop working.
– If you have a source of energy you can print money. It doesn’t work the other way round: if you print money you don’t get a source of energy.
– New inventions are a dime a dozen. Inventions that scale to mass manufacturing are few.
– Everything is easy when you see it being done.
Passerby, you seem to have hands-on experience on tangible realities… not the usual yadda yadda.
Please keep at it and educate as all, including myself.
Your comments are most valid (I agree) and most welcome.
Thanks. I agree with all your points except, “If you have a source of energy you can print money. It doesn’t work the other way round: if you print money you don’t get a source of energy.” Well the US has been doing that for years, printing money in turn using Mohammad/Ali’s resources.
It needs ingenuity and resolve to kick butt, to convince M. Ali to part with his energy resources in exchange for promises written on paper or as electronic signals. And it is indeed magic when Ali baba convinces M. Ali to deposit those promises with him in return for additional promises.
And I am at a loss of words when I see the rest of the world trading with those same promises which are now called the international reserve currency. This ponzi of ponzies operates for most part of a century. Now after Russia gets its butt kicked for 3 decades straight, does it muster enough political resolve to demand its own issued promises for its oil. Now Russia begins to get its own promises honored and sees them rise in demand.
An amazing system indeed. I promise you.
Obviously the plan is/was regime change in Russia and proceed with Russian resources with Russia acting as a puppet. It simply is the only thing they could have been imagining would happen.
This means the US/CIA either
1) was closer to this than anybody knows
2) was selling this idea to Europe all the while knowing it was a long shot and the more likely outcome was the complete subjugation of Europe as it lives through crushing penury
3) is wildly incompetent
Maybe a combination of all 3?
Excellent analyses, but don’t Van den Lugen and the EUcrats firmly believe that they will never have to do any physical plant changes of any kind because soon they will install Yeltsin 2.0 in the Kremlin and all the taps will be turned on at bargain prices? Delusional, yes, but they seem to be holding firm to that delusion. Sure looks like a very, very hard landing is in store for EU come September.
It’s not so much they believe what you say. It’s that they know they have no other “good” options as demonstrated by the article’s author.
Yes, you are correct. The EU’s (and by extension the US’s) intent is to crush Russia into submission so it can loot the resources. Yes, it’s delusional.
NATO wants war, Russia knows it and the end game will not be pretty. If you live in a NATO country and have children at or near adulthood, get your sons and daughters used to the idea they will be drafted and sent half way around the world to fight an oil war.
The best and only way, as is currently known according to known technologies, for the EU to get off Russian oil (and gas), is to wholeheartedly adopt the ideas of the great Austrian scientist, Viktor Schauberger, who proved beyond any doubt the most clean, safe, cheap and effective method of generating energy is via implosion as opposed to (combustible) explosion technology, or, fusion as opposed to fission.
Naturally, that will never happen.
This remarkable man had his work stolen by both US and Soviet authorities after WW2. It is well worth researching him and his outstanding work as he is hailed by many to be on the level of Tesla with his contribution to the peaceful development of life without the need to exploit earth’s resources, the latter ultimately leading all of us to our extinction. One can only hope that somewhere on this earth someone is seriously exploring this man’s ideas, for all our sakes.
Here are a few excellent links.
Check out these guys :
Numerous tracks, but without a US Manhattan style crash program, 40 years still on the job.
Thanks – appreciated.
I had no idea how far this has come. We can only hope before there is too much damage that is irreversible.
Why Russia´s oil ban is impossible.
Best economic and physics overview by Far.
Please, make sure Russia and Gazprom Exec can access this superb analyses, so they find respect from de west.
Please, Mr.Jorge Vilches.
And send a copie to Ursula and all European Government, and Bruxell Rep.
Please do it.
Aircraft Commandant, retired.
Thank you oh SO much for the encouragement and for the huge caliber of your suggestions !!
Coming from an experienced former Aircraft Commandant I take them very seriously indeed.
helio 1600 I cannot fathom … or envy… the level of materiel and hyper.specialized HR responsibilities you have shouldered as such. And by the way, you did not need much space to have your point come across, short & sweet did it really fast.
As I have confessed here before, I truly need such type of comments… but not for ego massaging purposes as at my late age one advantage is you don´t care any more about money or ego, what for ? But simply because of my sheer loneliness. helico1600 mine is a very lonely task most often — always ? — grossly misunderstood by those close by whom I share my everyday life with, family, friends, neighbors, etc.
Maybe I should take a Public Relations course (!) but I fear the instructor could very well tell me to leave his course immediatey fearing I would turn the whole student body against him or her.
Now then, critical comments are also much welcome as we would all learn, starting with myself. If I can´t defend my arguments well enough that would mean they were not that solid, no ? That would be good to know. I am an obviously old-fashioned guy that throughout his very intense lifetime has been very well trained to learn as much as and as fast and as thoroughly as possible, so be it. English is my second language and my British teachers were all very strict way back then.
Concerning defects, of course I have many. So let´s start with your most valid suggestions heli1600. I am worthless as in WORTH-LESS regarding marketing or political correctness. Zero, zilch, nothing, nada, unbelievable so. If I were younger I´d need urgently to get an agent. I have no contacts, no helping hands around. Sometimes people shy away from me, I am not light or lite enough, I am too thorough too complicated for barbecue I guess. A very very lonely task I have and only just good enough to provide a bit of # cathartic # intellectual relief.
Now, don´t cry for me Argentina, as accordingly I am very proud to have been often introduced by very well known powerfull people as # the quintessence of the independent columnist #. Actually I am not 100% sure these people meant it as a compliment either…but I did !!! Independent, yes. Knowledgeable, I try, always a student.
Getting back to your surely most important suggestions helico1600 regarding Russia & Gazprom contacts or Ursula and EU Parliament reach… or any other valid connection… Well, please be advised that another very serious defect of mine is not knowing how to lie or mislead well. I am a very very poor performer at that, as it surely shows as people tell me, impossible for me to ever become a regular MSM journalist or a politician.
So I get an E and need help from whomever is reading this. Nope, I have no way to know of anybody that would be influential. Maybe now The Saker audience may help in the event that my article is considered to be useful to anyone, at least parts of it. As I have said hereinbefore, all I am trying to do here is to establish a reasonable guideline map as a starting point for a valid debate on this make.it.or.break.it topic.
helico1600, my retired friend, thanks lots yet again you old man ! ahahahhh
English is my second language too.
And I am 80 years old. I survived to 22,000 hours in more than 60 different Type of Aircraft as Captain in mild and catastrophic situations,
I flew more than a dozen Head of states…..many many times.! thousand & thousand of Souls Big responsability.
I am with You,.. be proud of your magnificent Work.
We can fight ! We can fight with the Saker team. You need to ask some help.
Here are a couple of other problems for the EU’s future. China imports a little under 12 million barrels of oil every day. Russia exports a little under 8 million barrels of oil a day. The math isn’t hard to do here.
If Russia implements Glaznev’s and others economic reforms to spur their economy. A portion of that 8 million barrel a day export would start being used at home in Russia. China as Russia ally,knowing that if Russia was to fall to the West. That they would be next to be attacked. Would easily be able to buy most or all of the rest. Then there is exports to other non-Western controlled nations. And in my opinion ,what would be a good idea is to start exporting oil to North Korea helping that confirmed enemy of the US to avoid some of the damage the US is trying to do to them.
So basically ,if Russia just explores it’s options there is no problem that can’t be overcome.
I like the NK idea, I mean what’s the collective west going to do, put forth yet another worthless resolution from the UN? Sanction them? :)
One question arises (and I accept my ignorance of the technical details may make this seem a naive question);
The sense I get from the description provided in this article is that Russian oil is of a particular formula not found elsewhere? Yes/No?
That as a result of the specific make up of that oil the European facilities which use that oil cannot easily replace it without an impossible to achieve reconfiguration of all those facilities dependent upon that Russian oil. As a consequence it seems reasonable to assume all those European facilities are built and configured to operate using that unique mixture/blend of Russian oil? Yes/No?
This being the case? The question arises as to whether similar facilities throughout China are configured in the same way – ie to be able to use that extra specific blend of Russian oil or configured to use some other blend (in which case they would have the same problem as the Europeans in reverse if they tried to substitute current blends of oil used with the Russian blend by taking on the surplus Russian oil)?
Or is that over simplifying a more complex systems process?
A further question presents.
In the exchange above concerning the Tom Luongo article one issue in that article does not seem to have been covered. This is the issue of the difficulty of capping oil wells and the lack of storage capacity.
Found in this part of the article:
Quote: “Capping either a gas or oil well is dangerous because there is no guarantee it can be re-opened. Wells can be damaged and the oil/gas they contain lost without drilling a new one.
With gas you can just “flare it off” by burning the excess if your storage is full, rather than capping the well and wait for demand to return. With oil, on the other hand, you cannot really do that. You have to store the stuff somewhere. From all accounts so far, Russia’s oil storage capacity is already full, if not overflowing.”
It would therefore be useful to have made explicit what solutions exist to tackle this eventuality?
Thanks in advance.
Dave Hansel, excellent valid questions. Please keep them coming.
You ask #1 … is Russian oil of a particular formula not found elsewhere ?
Sorta yeah… but really no Dave, so please allow me to use a slightly different wordcraft… First, there is more than a single Russian oil. There are various Russian oil GRADES which possess a special set of physical & chemical properties. You might want to call it specific # formula # but it is not exactly that as methane is methane, period. Hydrocarbon composition and content does matter but what defines the refinery and feedstocks even for other chemical plants is how the oil grade in question behaves in function of processing purposes. And in that sense Russian oils are unique, like almost all other oils in the world also are unique !!!
Chemical processing is a MIRACLE. For example, the Urals oil is an EU special export mixture of heavy sour oil from the Ural and Volga region mixed with light API oil of Western Siberia. There are other grades such as Siberian light, Arctic oil , Sokol, Sakhalin blend etc. No need to get into college chemistry here with Vogel’s IPR curves yadda yadda etc etc . The point is that these oil grades cannot be found or mixed or prepared elsewhere as EU refineries require […because geology dictates that… ] and let alone as reliably delivered by Russia today in every single sense per paragraph 1 of my article onwards.
Now then, as thoroughly explained Dave you are 100% CORRECT in saying …your question #2
… That as a result of the specific make up of that oil GRADES the European facilities which use SUCH oil GRADES cannot easily be replaced without an impossible to achieve reconfiguration of all those facilities dependent upon that Russian oil. As a consequence it seems reasonable to assume all those European facilities are built and configured to operate using that unique mixture/blend of Russian oil?
Dave, I could not have said it better myself… So YES yes YES all ALL all of it YES.
question #3 … Are China facilities configured to be able to use those blends of Russian oil or configured to use some other blend etc etc etc etc ???
No, you are not OVER simplifying it Dave as, yes, all refineries in the world have been matched and mated for a given oil feed. My article defines it thoroughly and repeatedly, my back of the envelope estimate is that a full 35% of my article explains that specific aspect. The Franz marries Natasha paragraph comes to mind. I am very short of time right now so please Dave re/read the article looking for this explanation.
And yes, any future importer of Russian oil grades will have to necessarily have foreseen and adequately tested a compatible application already existing for such, OR adapt such application for the Russian oil grades… OR design, build and operate accordingly with 50 FIFTY years supply contracts guaranteeing the operation. Mr. SKovacs twice referenced and quoted in my article has 30/year experience and explained it perfectly well. Now then, be VERY carefull here Dave because if, say, China does that and finds or achieves compatibility for the Russian oil grades…THEN… the Russian oil will be exported to CHINA and bye bye adios forever foolish Europeans you will bloody FREEZE to death and turn into failed states because Russian oils will NOT be available no more. If Franz divorces Natasha… and then Natasha meets a good.looking new future mate, well Franz is left all alone in the bar with his buddies and no gal to share life and sex with, understood ? The world available oil is FINITE … possibly we have already passed by PEAK OIL… and if Russia delivers it to China then Europe is left without it. Of course, with several decades of time available and if the environment and Green Deals allow it, Russia could drill baby drill to take care of Europe ALSO…or maybe not… or maybe only a part of it ?
Question #4 …. Are China facilities configured to be able to use those blends of Russian oil or configured to use some other blend etc etc etc etc
No, you are not OVER simplifying it Dave as, yes, all refineries in the world have been matched and mated for a given oil feed. My article explains it thoroughly and repeatedly, my back of the envelope estimate is that a full 30% of my article refers to that specific aspect. The Franz marries Natasha paragraph comes to mind. I am very short of time right now so please Dave re/read the article looking for this explanation. And yes, any future importer of Russian oil grades will have to necessarily have foreseen and adequately tested a compatible application for such, OR else… design, build and operate accordingly with 50 FIFTY years supply contracts guaranteeing the operation.
SKovacs twice referenced and quoted in my article has 30/year hands.on experience and explained it perfectly well. Now then, be VERY carefull here Dave because if, say, China does that and finds the Russian oil grades compatible, the Russian oil will be exported to CHINA and bye bye Europeans will bloody FREEZE to death and turn into failed states because Russian oils will NOT be available and then you fall into the domain of my article conclusion of which is not pretty… as there are NONE other oil grades out there readily available NOW in enough quantities and qualities. If Franz goes bananas and divorces oil.rich wife Natasha… and then gorgeous Natasha meets a new future nice.looking mate… well Franz is left all alone in the bar with his buddies drinking US bourbon ajjjjajjjj and no gal to share life and sex with, understood ?
The worlds available oil is FINITE … and we have already passed PEAK OIL left in rear.view mirror… and if Russia delivers it to China then Europe is left without it. Of course, with several decades of time available (not) and if the environment and Green Deals allow it (not) Russia could possibly drill baby drill its life out to take care of Europe ALSO…or maybe not… or maybe only a part of it ? and the Russians get to pick which part maybe ? Or maybe Russia does not procure any additional marginal oil for EU export purposes fearing them would once again want to stick it to the man ? So Russia says, not again, go pound sand EU… Fool me once blame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Let[s protect our borders and let the European Eurasia peninsul sink into the ocean. Please read carefully https://thesaker.is/europes-mad-ban-on-russian-oil/
question #5 Dave, you ask about the difficulty of capping wells and the lack of storage capacity, right ?
Nat gas wells can be flared, no problem with that while other export markets are found and internal Russian use increases with enormously CHEAP nat gas. Oil wells can be repurposed and production wells turned into water injection wells in secondary recovery projects to repressurize downhole environment and augment production effectiveness. Done that, been there, got the T/shirt. My most special regards to Professor William Cobb on this matter, bear hug Bill you old man thanks for all your teachings Sir.
Oil can also be stored as the US does with its 200 million barrels at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And internal consumption in Russia can also increase to prompt development. But the problem today with PEAK oil is not storing it. Problems would exist but he real final problem is HAVING it and once you have it the application is found trust me PEAK oil is bidded constantly. The problem would be for Europe NOT having oil. You have got OIL as the Lord and my bosses want it ? Let us HAVE IT, trust me.
Thank you for taking the time to respond Jorge. You have confirmed my interpretation and understanding of the specific points from the article which I have raised.
On reflection it seems reasonable to surmise I could have put the issue of concern more clearly. This being that it seemed to me that the point Uncle Bob put, a straightforward diverting of oil to China if Europe did not want it, was far from straightforward. The ability of the Chinese to take the extra oil being dependent upon the same factors applicable to Europe – ie having facilities configured to use that grade/type of oil. The rationale being that if this was not the case than the Chinese as an end user for that oil could not easily replace the European end user.
Dave, yes, point well taken.
(1) This is hard to believe, but China would build spancking-new refineries from SCRATCH built 100% ad hoc match & mated to Russian grade oils !!! Yes, China would not re-adapt or retro-fit its refineries at all just leaving the un touched !!! They have built entire very large cities with complete infrastructure and, for different reasons, left them empty unpopulated. Building refinieries matched to Russian oils is an easy game for them. China is China !!!
(2) Simultaneously to the above oil/gas pipes would be built to Siberia. China would have in 3 to 5-years time enough consumption and infrastructure to import every drop of Siberian oils. China has serious energy security problems this would SOLVE.
(2) A a matter of fact this Ukraine crisis has allowed China to have a new solution available for its energy-import near-future and long-term needs.
But actually the final reason for NOT worrying about what to do with the Russian oil is that Europe will necessarily continue buying it forever as this article explains (a) cannot do without it and (b) cannot replace it.
China and India will also buy more new NEW new Russian oil yet to be drilled. But the EU will continue to buy as much as today.
Dave, I am now preparing a NEW article to show why this is exactly so because of the impossibility for Europe of importing any significant quantity from anywhere else to change the game precisely because of what this article explains.
Thanks again, and Dave please keep at it !!! Cordially Jorge
PS: I hadn´t seen your most recent post above and that´s why I didn´t reply before. It is difficult for me to re-read all of the posts from the very beginning over and over and over it takes forever to see whether you have replied to something I posted. It is easier for me to check out at the very very bottom to see if a NEW input has been added in reply to my previous comment or reply. Well, I´m just explainin´
A simple law of humanity. When the facts on the ground, are so bewildering that the mind/heart is in despair, then follow the money trail, and on those dark footsteps, the meaning of the outer confusion will become clear.
Maybe we should stop creating money as debt, the money for slaves?
Maybe we should not have given the control of the monetary supply, to those who have crawled from the underworld, those ‘hungry ghosts’ who feed upon human pain, as if it is the banquet of their dark Gods!
**If history is any guide, banning Russian oil would turn EU members into failed states::***
This is just what the DOCTORS ORDERED.. (or dis-honorary doctors included from poodle universities etc.,)
Doctors : Klaus Schwab, Henry Kissinger (with NIGHT-hoods etc., ) ,
Most dis-honorary Doctor George Soros and the ultimate Over-Lord Doctor Rothschild clan..
Even the poodle colony New Zealand (Aotearoa more correctly..) last PM John Keys (ex vulture banker..)was ordained with an dis-honorary doctorate from University of Canterbury in Christchurch.
Present psychopath PM Jacinda is also fallen fruit from the Dr. Klaus Schwab in the Davos swamp!!!!
These *failed states* has been on the cards for the past 120 years at least, when surprisingly (no titles for this f…wit..) non-Doctor Cecil Rhodes magnimously declared that it was **England duty to civilise the world**..
Well of course, the City of London and the Brit upper class with a few billionaire Yanks thrown in for good measure..gave him and that most evil and ruthless LORD Milner full backing for exploitative Charters in Rhodesia, Empire buidling, Boer Wars with concentration camps,WW1, sending Lord Kitchener*s vessel over a minefield in 1917 on his way to St Petersburg, Milner*s last visit to the Czar/Tsar Nicholas in 1917 with broken promises etc.,
City of London has been actively continuously attacking and back stabbing Russia since 1800s -for a simple reason ..
LEBENSRAUM with an overabundance of resources – (German for *Living space*..which the *Alcoholic art fraud* incessantly referred to.)
Southern England and London is just a tiny, low-lying, resource poor, over-populated pap-smear or fluid faecal matter.
A few, soon to arrive typhoons, tsunamis, sea level rise, heat waves etc., and then finally GOOD RIDDANCE to London and their Stock broker belt…
Apparently, more and more EU energy companies are resorting to the 49% Russian oil/gas trick while London, EU Out-of-Commission and Washington politcos throw well rehearsed temper tantrums..
I would recommend the EU try importing that wonderfully heavy, a headache-to -efine Venezelan oil –
another spanner in the works..
Again, Just what the doctors ordered….
PSS.. remember those much lauded sanctions and boycotts of Rhodesia and South Africa in 1970s and 1980s..(the short lived Royal Navy blockade of Beira port in Mocambique – main entry of Oil and other exports/imports to Rhodesia..) . US Texas Senator Harry Byrd amendment 1971 to permit import of vitally strategic Chrome from Rhodesia..
Nudge nudge.. Tel Aviv delivered 4 nuke warheads in 1976 to Pretoria..
Bollocks to the Empire of Lies…
“Refineries and chemical plants cannot be fed anywhere near the way you feed your dog, period. This means that . . . all of these highly technical European chemical plants, refineries and machinery have to be either (a) newly built from scratch or (b) completely re-vamped and retrofitted thru an enormous effort that will consume humongous amounts of euros, human resources, expertise, trials & errors, risk and lots of hard work and lots and lots of TIME we do not have.”
Plus humongous amounts of . . . energy energy energy. . .
A good marriage is a partnership that works both ways. How will Russia find other customers for the oil the EU no longer takes if the infrastructure doesn’t yet exist elsewhere to process and use Russian oil types? Can it fill the void by expanding use domestically? Or will it have to cap many of its wells?
As just a casual observer, someone ´analyzing´ at a most basic level, it is everything from fascinating, humorous, horrifying and all in between and booking ending anything possible, to watch how supposedly well informed/schooled and experienced people, only think with their buns. Just incredible stuff. No wonder Austin demanded an ¨immediate ceasfire¨, he really doesn´t know what that means.
I liked the article.
Thanks John, I really liked your brief yet highly colorfull description !
Thanks Jorge for your comprehensive analysis.
This is a very important subject that will define our future. BTW, I am Canadian.
I am surprised to find that the implementation of this plan was easy to do for the current european leaders. I thought that they were rational people.
I can only arrive at some conclusions: the ‘climate change’ idea might be dead after this existing episode. It is a lot easier to destroy something, than building something. It took Germany and Russia decades to create this level of relationship, but it takes only a few months to destroy.
This is a shame. And most of the current decisions are made by people who are not even elected.
The current Empire of Lies does not want to discuss Count Witte, the Transiberan Rail, the Bering Strait Tunnel, the industrial revolution.
They are forced to unprecedented vandalism against their very own populations, to to a King Canute on the Industrial Revolution.
Sorry, King Canute, get a snorkel fast!
“Unfortunately, we are living through a time where the most powerful people in the world (at least in their minds) are openly trying to destroy the petroleum market for their own purposes and agenda. They are actively working to make oil and gas prices volatile to the point of destroying investment in the industry.
They make no bones about this. Oil is the bane of the planet!
I call these people The Davos Crowd (for a description of them see my podcast, Episodes 75, 76, and 77 for the background information). They are the unelected oligarchs, bankers, hereditary power and newly Made Men (in the mafia sense) who gather at Davos, Switzerland, every year to decide on the future of humanity.”
I am amazed that Putin/Russia did/does nothing about these people. They live in the world, gather in Davos every year and no one touches them, ask them any qustions, wonder what the hell they are doing with all that money and power in their hands?
Given all the hard personal sanctions significant Russians citizens ar under I thought in a counter way these people would also come under at least full surveillance by the Russian power.
Ben, I agree.
Why is the WEF and its agenda and cadres already in place not discussed more deeply and comprehensively in the alternative media.
Many in the alternative media like to deride Klaus Schwab as a “James Bond figure” and then they dismiss him, and those who do take him and his WEF agenda seriously, and basically cut off any further discussion.
The (thinking) public desperately needs to gain a better understanding of the relationship between the Deep States (s) of major nations and the WEF and the WHO. How do these intersect? How do different national factions intersect with the WEF? Are these factions part of the Deep State of such a coiuntry? For instance, we know that Macron is a WEF fellow. So who in the French elites put him in power? How do those entities relate to the WEF? How does the WEF agenda further their own political or ideological goals?
I have not seen such a deep discussion, but it is quite possible that I have missed it. The only possible locus of such thinking that I know of is Reiner Fuellmich’s Sessions and also Grand Jury sessions.
BigBen, thanks for your favorable comments. As explained before, they are most welcome. If comments were negative, still also very much welcome as the audience and myself would learn like all good septuagenarian students should. So keep comments coming, any comments are great for myself and for the audience. The only # bad # comments or questions are those not made.
Yes, I fully agree with you BigBen that the future of Europe AWKI and the future of the ROW is at stake.
BigBen, I disagree in that this PLAN was not easy to do. First, it is not over yet. Second, Europe is not winning. Third, no, Europeans have not shown any strategic thinking with this PLAN. On the contrary, the UN.elected EU leadership better get its act together soon enough or pitchforks will readily show them the way OUT. This is history, specifically European history. If my thesis and the title of my article were correct, then Europe will have to backtrack to square one to February 1, 2022 and embrace Russia soon enough and commission Nord Syream 2 ASAP. Other comments I made to other posters are relevant and you may want to browse, find them and read them through. Thanks for thinking out loud BigBen, it helps everybody and even with no need for chip implants on you or myself for that matter ahahahahh !!!
Thanks for your reply, Jorge.
You are a bit more optimistic than I am about the elected europeans. However, they may start to feel the pressure coming from the companies. But it is too late. The non-elected representatives aren’t going to be replaced soon enough: they will continue to cause a lot of damage in a short period of time.
The european commission just announced that they will allow the EU companies to open accounts with Gazprombank, as Moscow has requested. This gives credence to your thesis, Jorge. They cannot implement their plan and replace Russian oil or gas fast enough. Impossible and you demonstrated it quite eloquently !
However, Russia is no longer willing to invest time and money with these people. They are past the point of no-return.
Dear BigBen, your timely input is excellent.
Still be advised that this Resolution has not yet been approved as it is only a very credible draft from knowledgeable reliable sources… And only would apply for Russian nat.GAS not Russian oil. At any rate anyone can smell the whiff of defeat if nat.gas is allowed to be payed the Russian way although Russian oil exports are 4 times as large and yet to be ruled upon.
I still think that the EU decision is still very tipically EU wishy.washy.iffy in that apparently YES they would authorize companies to open up the two accounts at GazpromBank for nat.gas payments but at the same time specifically indicate that companies should make unequivocally clear in writing to GazpromBank that their payment in euros or dollars would mean to have satisfactorily complied with the contract payment clause. And that is NOT what Russia had said. On the contrary, Russia made clear that up until such euros or dollars were effectively converted by GazpromBank into Rubles, such contract would not be valid. The Russians on their part left open all the details of what such euro or dollar conversion would mean …. at least that I know of, anybody know ??? Because GazpromBank timing and execution of such conversions re possible currency devaluations, parities, commissions, etc. etc. are not clear either. So I guess both sides are playing games on their own, both leaving wide open what they want and need and will do and will happen, always testing the waters and connecting thru back.channels etc etc
So I say wishy.washy.iffy …international politicking at its best.
Regarding politics I insist in that this plan of sorts all better come out relatively well for regular people impacted by UNpayable energy & fuel bills and inflation fever.pitch, etc. Otherwise the pitchforks are in.waiting me thinks everyday reality is very tough on Joe Doe and if history is any guide they will KICK them OUT.
Regarding the success of my thesis, well… yeah… imagine how I feel BigBen… hmmmm…. how to say this….Well now they may possibly have realized that they cannot implement their Russian oil.ban plan. I am not still completely sure about that though. We still have to see how they go about the possible narrative disguising the abject failure of such plan in order to face face. We shall see. Apparently nat.gas imports are being allowed, but oil imports me not sure yet
BigBen, please clarify what you mean by …. however, Russia is no longer willing to invest time and money with these people. They are past the point of no-return… how come ?
A decade, maybe a decade and a half ago German/EU industrialists/financiers/politicians seen fit to commission/partner Russia on NS2, then the delays through US interference, then decreasing post Covid demand.
Let’s assume Jorge that all your valid points/concerns on technical aspects, logistics and creation of a fully integrated system can be resolved then we’re left with the main boondoggle of supply issues.
There are only 2 countries who could make a meaningful contribution here, Venezuela, currently producing under 1 million bbls of crude per day, from a high of 4 million bbls under Chavez and so it would take 10’s of Billions and 5-10 years to realise this (highly doubtful ) and of course Iran, where there’s more likelihood of them closing down Hormuz and exacerbating the situation 3 fold.
In Africa Nigeria could possibly up production from 2-3 million but again relying on Nigeria would sum up the hubris floating around the West.
If oil refineries depend on a very specific oil chemistry, then how can you just arbitrarily blend a 51%/49% mixture of Non-Russian/Russian oil and expect it to work?
It seems to me that the best solution is to reduce interest rates in Russia to allow the construction of additional oil refineries in Russia to refine Russian oil, and then just export the refined products, that would greatly reduce the above enumerated complications.
Yes, oil refineries depend on very specific feedstock chemistry no doubt about it !!!
SKovacs with his 30 years first.hand experience also explained it in detail in my article. Swede I care to imagine your comment could have come from my previous The Saker article at https://thesaker.is/europes-mad-ban-on-russian-oil/ which mentions something to that extent, correct ?
Swede, we cannot know how they manage stocks at Schwedt, but there is more than a single possibility.
For one, such percentages would be for storage reporting conditions, and not necessarily final OR Intermediate feed composition. They get the Russian grade at Schwedt, they store it at 49% mixed with some non/Russian grade at 51% but still of very well known characteristics… and as constant and foreseeable as Russian grades are… then such mix is later used as feedstock after further modifying it as needed. So, a 49 to 51 ratio could be for storage purposes only. Chemical processing plants many times pull almost magical stuff, trust me.
OR… such mix is exactly what Schwedt is fed by design, not for source cheating purposes. Say that originally after lots of research and trial and error tests Schwedt management decided to tune the plant exactly for such 49 to 51 ratio and built it accordingly… which also allowed to declare it as non.Russian because of the 51% content of non/Russian. That would be the best of both worlds allowing them to say that they are oh soooo efficient them do not need Russian oil grades and as a matter of fact we have NONE in stock, see ?… although they are really importing 49% of it and then mix it with whatever other constant 51% component to thus reach final feed all the while declaring it as NON.Russian… magic no ? As magical as the Schro:dinger euros no ? Now you see them, now you dont…
Them not technical fools, just EU politically correct axxes.
Thanks WTFUD and please keep up your always valid input guy !
Good, sound, fact-based reasons why countries of the EU$A ought not to ban Russian oil; because “banning Russian oil would turn EU[$A] members into failed states” .
But who says the small, tight, secretive cabal of so-called “Elite” (Latin: “Chosen”) Anglo Zio Capitalists who run the EU$A don’t like running a failed state? A failed state is a country with “black masses” (as they were called in Poland) of very poor and a “select” (Latin: “chosen”) few very rich. “Black masses” of poorly fed, poorly paid, poorly housed and poorly educated people are easier for the “Elite” to subjugate.
It seems to me that everything is being done to impoverish the people of the EU$A by deliberate disruption of supply chains to basic commodities through lockdowns, spot pricing, boycotting, banning and sanctioning.
How many Eussians does it take to turn on a gas tap? The so-called “regulatory delay” of Nordstream 2 is deliberate sabotage against the people of Europe by the “Elite” of the EU$A.
“We do not waste money on housing for the poor; we leave the rats to die in their holes” — Polish visitor being shown round a council housing estate, back in the days when Britain had a socialist party; a modern British “Liberal” would say the same today as that “Conservative” Pole did then.
Energy the world needed 2021 was heavily depended on oil, coal and gas. They took total 84,2% share. In fact during the last 20 years their share go down just 1,7%. And this all after every day propaganda of “soon coming Green Energy World”. Why such marginal global change? Reason is pretty simple. Fastest growing economies are very much fossile energy using China and India. Those going green have quite slow growth anyway. Not perhaps because they go green but when their growth is slow they have more options to go green. Going Green is elitist moral posturing.
Thank you for a great article, Jorge. Obviously, a great deal of work has gone into it and I did not fully comprehend it on first reading, so will have to re-read it several times to fully digest it.
Many thanks SLM, I appreciate it.
And yep, it took me a whole week PLUS… a whole lifetime…. to prepare this article.
I prepared it with great pleasure and… per the questions and comments received herein… I am very proud to say I would do it a hundred times over if needed.
So SLM I would say it is an excellent idea to re.read ithis article slowly as it is… longuish… and dense… but at least it addresses the REAL question instead of wishfull thinking right ? You know what, you will find this hard to believe SLM, but me… being the bloody AUTHOR now… I re/read this my very own article dozens of times, DOZENS, at least some key paragraphs. The oil & gas business is very tricky and waaay too serious to leave the technical analysis to self.serving Western politicians who know NOTHING but act as if they did while padding their pockets every single minute of their life.
Sure sure we will punish Russia ahahahahh and not buy its oil any more bwahahahhh because we shall set up this beach/front bazaar somewhere with seaborne shipping only and no large enough fleet anywhere to be seen that will take years to build if anyone cares to run such risk as the EU will either no longer continue to be as we know it OR will rewind history and return to its Russian marriage which they should have never risked .
The option most likely to be taken is for the EU/NATO to go to war and invade Africa and Russia to steal their resources. Considering the current events taking place in the West such as Finland, Sweden joining NATO and the demolishing of Libya and the crisis in other African states the West’s plan is in motion.
For the West to control the states that have those asset reserves eliminates the need to associate with Russia in trade or commerce.
A pretty daring aggressive idea there. Hmmm….
But possibly it would be best if they would limit it to Africa because attacking hypersonic nuclear Russia would not be a good idea no ?
But imagine building all of the needed infrastructure in Africa!
OTOH, perhaps Africa is relatively defenseless in terms of oversight procedures that are standard in the developed world, and whoever “wins” in Africa (where China already has a pretty strong presence) gets to ride roughshod over (genuine) environmental and other concerns adn ram through the infrastructure needed by the West.
Of course in such a case, Africa’s economic development —the use of its natural resources and energy for its own economic growth—probably stays on the back burner forever . . .
Not wrong Taffy and to answer Brexitologist remark is that Russia won’t use nuclear weapons unless the US uses them against Russia otherwise Russia would have used it to rid the world of a few cities; whoever uses it first will be automatically responded to with nukes.
US has many bases globally and a majority of them are located in Africa which confirms that they and the West have had this planned well in advance decades ago and Libya was the testing ground.
Quite a few years ago I read an article from a military strategist, unfornuately I can’t recall his name but what he had to say corresponds to the events taking place now and his conclusion was that the US/NATO will win the war against Russia/China mainly because of both countries attitude towards fair play which is devoid with the US/NATO psych.
Could be wrong, hopefully.
I expect Europe will launch an accelerated move into heat pumps, co-generation from burning garbage for heat and electricity and other such measures to free up a maximum of hydrocarbons for transport.
Improving insulation for buildings and double or triple glazing of windows will also get a boost for the same reasons.
These measures will lead to a permanent drop in hydrocarbon consumption. These proved to be effective in previous energy crises. This time they will not be enough or timely enough.
Russia should be prepared to buy up cheap the industrial equipment that will be idled by this crisis and set up the businesses in Russia. Giving the previous workers a job offer and facilitated immigration might not be a bad idea either.
You say ” … These measures will lead to a permanent drop in hydrocarbon consumption…”
Agreed, if ever implemented sustainably throughout Europe your statement would be approximately correct. At the very end though I would add … ” by 0.5% ” as such type of initiatives are only good for your individual energy consumption bills but not for overall figures. Also carefull with hidden costs as burning garbage can be VERY expensive.
Also these types of moves are usually temporary and not sustainable because people lose willingness or change their attitudes, move or get married and move into a new place and have babies etc
Furthermore, I wouldn[t think that undre current circumstances the EU would allow Russia to buy anything on the cheap, just to punish them remember ?
ah but what about the added consumption in the modern …tv is full of ads that buy be bigger tvs…cinema rooms….electrical machines to remove condensation from windows…steam cleaners be wet cleaner..all the endless to DIY tools to by….all the latest cook gadgets machines for blending and cooking individual items, home baristas…latest pressure washer when we just used a garden hose….vac cleaners for cars…all those rechargeable batteries. So many more hardening machines.All that extra fuel for shop on line deliveries……but electric vans are so expensive and are not suitable? All those ginormous warehouses using robotic systems for in and out of stock.
Maybe Russia should explain to the European people, that if verified military weapons come over the European borders, into Ukraine, then the gas lines into Europe will shutdown, until the weapons are destroyed, or removed from the Ukraine.
This is simple ‘divide and rule’ stuff. It is turning the European people onto their own politicians!
I see no reason why Russia should wait for Europe to decide its own version of military/commercial agendas!
Thorough overview of why the EU must have Russian oil.
I ask just one question: what if Russia decides to no longer supply it?
cdvison, good point, but I do not think the Russians will do that anytime soon…at least not in the foreseeable future… Because doing that would pretty much be declaring WW3 in a certain sense, would it not ? Europe would die out on its feet in a matter of weeks if Russia cuts it off from oil supplies, or gas,or coal…
Unless the Russians get fed up sick and tired of Western shenanigans of course … which could happen if Ursula and Davos have it their way or if in military terms things get unexpectedly very complicated from the Russian perspective… and thus Russia would slam the floor flat on their faces as away to solve what would be a military problem. But such posssibility depends more on Western policies, as Russian policies are fixed and very well known really. The West right now would have to change direction and save face in the process, i.e, needs to find the right narrative to make a 180 degree turn on current policies and revert back to doing business with Russia with the Ukraine conundrum floating in the air as a specter from a Dickens novel. The West has painted itself into a helluva corner no ?
But Russia should be very well aware and much concerned about the contents and warnings of this article, meaning they know they would be having a HUGE problem next door if Europe does not have fuel and energy safety ensured by… RUSSIA. Because of what this article explains, it would be VERY aggressive even to be almost considered as a ‘casus belli’ of sorts… but I am not an international jurist to know about that.
First of all, Russia always clearly proposed that there would be no problems if the West does not want to be friends with them. What Russia always said is please let us not be enemies. We do not want to have enemies and neither should you. Also Russia makes good money selling its oil with business as usual.
Now what will surely happen is that in view of events Russia and China and India will link their economies much more much further much deeper. So any Russian future growth will be targeting Eurasia, not Western Europe. New oil & gas fields and drill baby drill Russian policies will be focusing on Beijing, not London or Paris or Berlin.
Thank you once again Jorge for providing visitors to the Vineyard another excellent essay. I applaud your intention to educate your readers.
Now, after reading this essay — thrice, I should say in all honesty — it has become clear to me how Europe is shooting itself in the foot, nay — kneecapping and crippling itself — with its harebrained scheme (I’m confident to use the expression now, thanks to the essay) to sanction Russian oil. Never knew it could get so complicated with oil — chemistry and physical properties requiring fine-tuning of refineries, etc. ‘Franz marrying Natasha’ is a particularly apt metaphor, I think.
I agree that pitchforks will appear in Euro towns and cities well before the start of the great die-off envisioned by Malthusian-minded analysts; people will take matters into their own hands before they die of hunger.
So, Russia is sitting pretty vis-a-vis Europe on the vital O&G front. I remember watching a video of Vladimir Putin, with Angela Merkel at his side at a conference — ah, the good old days — castigating Germany, half-jokingly asking the audience, ‘You don’t want to use nuclear, you don’t want to use gas, you don’t want to use coal, so what are you going to use for heating and cooking? Firewood?’
But the world moves on and this time around, with Europe, Putin will most probably adhere to the advice given by a famous European to ‘never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake.’
Thanks Stand Easy, your comments help lots to enhance the understanding of current events. And also help me in the possible evolution future articles of mine might have. In the near future I will probably expand further the Franz marries Natasha analogy because it drives the point home clearly and rapidly, does it not ?
One problem for me is having an adequate idea of who the audience really is… or might be. For example, is the audience technically oriented or maybe not so much ? Because this is basically a very special and tricky technical matter that cannot be avoided as such. But, how much would politicians understand any possible technical explanation of mine no matter how basic it might be ? Would decision.making politicians follow well this very article we are debating here and now ? Would politicians even finish reading these longuish explanations ?
How about plain housewives because with all due respect for us gentlemen let us readily accept that it is they who run our house, no ? Aaaaahhh… So maybe one audience could very well have Karens as predominant participants. Hmmm… comments ? ideas from anyone out there ?
Thanks again Stand Easy
Re audience, I remember the Saker assessing his readers to be a fairly well-educated, eclectic lot, uni grads, perhaps holding masters or higher degrees, curious, opinionated (pretty obvious), from around the world, and mainly within 40-60 age group, ie with a bit of real-world experience; some still working, some retired.
My impression –> in the main, some are more technically-orientated than others; some more strategy-military types but all in general looking for a good, well-informed discussion of the issue/s at hand. And talking about housewives, there are some pretty sharp housewives (and going by their handles, grannies) here too :)
One thing though, you’ve brought a new style here — continuous engagement with readers, or rather commentators, that helps to develop the ideas in the article. That is something that is much appreciated by your humble servant here as a reader although of course we understand if the other excellent authors who’re published here do not do so.
An excellent, detailed and structured presentation of the self-inflicted wound that the EU leaders appear incapable of understanding, in an industrially indivisible world.
Just to add to the narrative: Fracking has been promoted as a solution. the evidence however from practical application is that it does more harm than good. Take the US State of Oklahoma which used to have maybe two earthquakes every year along specific natural fault lines but now has hundreds per month across the whole State, due to the added human-induced ‘lubrication’ of rock below…The groundwater is now contaminated….the cost is not just monetary but affects the quality – and safety – of life itself.
But the issue is that if at least one example has been examined and the result monitored over time…and proven to be based on faulty assumptions, the idea of fracking continues to be promoted by specific interests who purely seek financial gain…at the cost of the environment…In the UK for example, there is a powerful lobby aiming to persist in introducing fracking. As the excellent analysis exposes, this is all only a short-term stop-gap and cannot be considered a viable long-term alternative to the existing well-oiled supply chain.
Another issue is fuel quality. I was involved in industrial research for a major car maker at the time when the UK was under social pressure to change from using leaded petrol. This was a very reasonable request to ‘change’ but the supply chain was very much resisting the changeover. The reason why it was reasonable, was that previous to introducing lead into fuels, there had already been unleaded fuel, so the supply chain was very conversant with the technology and fully capable of supplying both unleaded and leaded fuels…the social pressure forced the abandonment of leaded fuel but the oil industry informed me it was impossible to cut off leaded fuel as by now, a large part of the UK vehicle parc could only run on leaded fuel…the car makers at that time told me that this was BS as they were being delivered unleaded in order to fill the tanks of cars exported to the USA…(a figure of 500,000 cars each containing 1 gallon of unleaded exported by the UK to the USA was quoted). I then asked the UK Ministry of Transport for their views. At the start they stated “we have no opinion on this, the emissions escape into the air and are dispersed, so there is no problem” (so naturally i made the observation that Scandinavia was complaining about the clouds of pollution which they appeared to know precisely, coming from Sheffield)…6 moths later, the same Ministry was in a panic to formulate policy…so suddenly the new unleaded fuel was introduced, heavily promoted as being more environmentally safe than leaded fuels.
As the author here states, you cannot beat the experience of an older person who has been exposed to all the various influences and parameters. I was lucky to find a good contact in the largest south coast refinery. The guy stated to me that this was his last week in the office before retirement and so he felt no reason to withhold any information. He stated that the public was being totally fooled with the introduction of the new unleaded fuels. He outlined the scenario that the chemical industry had up to then, simply dumped excess chemicals into groundwater, or rivers…The chemicals industry was then on the receiving end of environmental lobbies. The chemical companies then asked their friends in the refineries, whether they might be interested in some extra waste chemicals which they were happy to just give to the refinery as long as it was collected regularly…The refinery was delighted as the added chemicals could be used as octane extenders as well as reducing the share of refined petrol per se, in the mix. The refinery staffer explained that this was now a win-win situation for the supply chain: the chemical industry was able to offload waste to the refineries and crow that it was being ‘environmental’… the refineries boasted that they now had a reduced share of petrol in the mix…and the motorist was having to pay for this, as his car was essentially the incinerator of this volatile mix. To add insult to injury, the modern motorist, who is a passive recipient of the fuel that is allowed to him by the industry and regulator, is now being penalised more, for using these – now declared as – ‘polluting’ fuels. Alternatives such as adding 5% or 10% ethanol or biofuel to the mix, have proven to damage vehicle engines in the longer term, which confirms the authors assertion that alternatives simply cannot replace the high base quality of the feedstock…and any new developments are really just “experimental chipping at the edges” and not really creating a smooth mature transition…
The EU and USA have behaved so badly towards Russia that i cannot imagine a scenario where Russia would henceforth willingly supply its oil and gas under the existing conditions to unfriendly markets but maybe only a smaller amount at a far higher price… Whilst countries like Hungary would benefit from their goodwill towards Russia…and maybe be allowed to be the main transit for future deliveries, which would allow Russia to filter supply volumes to suit its own geopolitical agenda…
BTW Jorge, you were uncertain in a previous posting as to whether it was necessary to respond to commentaries. .I think this method works extremely well as it helps to develop and improve the understanding of topics. i tend to be a bit less optimistic that the current Anglo-Saxon political world is spontaneously capable of self-examination and reform. Russia needs to give a very sharp blow to really hurt the western body-politic and make the Anglo-Saxon bully understand what it feels like to be a victim. It is fascinating how, every 100 years, Russia needs to do this…
Original Analyst, many thanks for your detailed input and favorable comments.
I have first hand knowledge on negative fracking impact and confirm everything you say. I could add even more negative comments but lets leave it at that. Your input regarding my very active participation in this commentariat section is well taken and very much appreciated. I was most unsure of myself and how to ‘behave’ properly in front of such a large and savvy audience such as this one. I finally gathered from the many favorable reactions such as yours that I am not messing up the blog or anything to that extent. As you say my participation provokes more questions and I also learn lots from commentariati opinions and data reporting which make me THINK more and better before replying a single word. I need that and we all benefit.
Here we have a collective approach of highly favorable cross contamination of ideas, problems, and real solutions, not wishfull thinking. I know that any one of my interventions could be and surely is scrutinized by XX that always lurk. So I always play it safe and do not risk info or opinio unless very sure I can adequately prove what I respond. I avoid shallow waters always stand on solis technical ground. At least the Moderators and editors Andrei and Amarynth have not yet told me to refrain my interventions here so I will keep at to keep learning more, trust me. Sure hope to have you around often as you are most welcome to the debate Original Analyst !!
Excelente, Jorge. Muchas gracias.
Andres, si tu eres quien yo creo que podrias ser pues te agradezco de todo corazon que te hayas tomado el tiempo, el trabajo, y el esfuerzo de leernos a todos aqui en nuestro hogar postizo en tu The Saker y comentar. Mi sentido abrazo para ti Andres y te deseo lo mejor y bien rapido eh ?
Question… How does all of this effect the outcome the US is desiring? Is it possible that what is taking place in Europe was designed by The World Economic Forum in Geneva, Switzerland?
Yes, the people in ALL countries will starve and their families will be desitude. But will any of the men and women in governments or their banker friends suffer?
This article should make every plowboy shiever. But this article makes the oligarchs wring their hands with glee. The only hope for humanity is that someone will find a way to end the existence of the The World Economic Forum.
Dferg, thanks for the input.
My take is that YES most probably the WEF Davos crowd with Anglo.Saxon influence and support has lots to do with what is going on. But as I said before regarding Tom Luongos analysis etc etc So please look up my reply to poster ‘bonbon’ waaaay up at the very beginning of this thread… where I say that historically the pitchforks have hit the streets way before they freeze or starve to death. Once fed up, move over or else. It is a dangerous game and a sheer shameless pity because things may get out of control before the chaos subsides.
But I do not foresee the WEFs desired outcome coming to fruition. No way, no. And in that specific sense I am very optimistic, even a believer. I see the light, the human God given light prevailing over the bad guys.
The author is making a huge mistake when estimating time required for hypothetical steps to replace Russian oil/gas with something else. (months) and (many months) is absolutely unrealistic. It should go one order of magnitude = (years). Where it says (years) it should say (decennia).
Plus, people who could actually think of designing and building those things, they have already retired, or will do soo in – months or a few years. An engineer in retirement does not keep their knowledge and expertise forever. Very sun, after age of 60-65, memory becomes a mish-mash of semi forgotten experiences, unrelated patches of some knowledge, and zero will to do anything. Perhaps a few oldies would be useable, but very few, far from critical mass necessary to rebuild energy systems from scratch.
Some would say we are in for a thrill ride. I don’t think so. It will be a crash, maybe in slow motion, yet a crash.
I just hate when I am right.
Zidar, of course you already know that I basically agree with you in absolutely everything you say.
And if you read carefully I do approach the problem of oldies but goodies not around anymore, baldys and grey haired guys are featured assets not bugs, etc etc my Whatssapp paragraph etc etc.
The problem is that if I really told the full truth and nothing but the complete truth I would automatically lose credibility with the crowd out there. It is difficult enough already to have people merely listen to these arguments without calling me names, or flat.earther or conspiracy theorist, yes, all of THAT and even more.
As I have repeatedly said mine is a very sad and lonely task. That is why here in the comments section of The Saker I feel at home with the gang.
I’ve been waiting for such an analysis, a pleasure to read this in-depth article by Mr Vilches.
About 3 weeks ago I read a news article (I can’t remember where) which explained that a small number of Singapore based container ships (perhaps 3 -5) had filled up with a batch of ‘bad fuel’ which resulted in their engines stopping and helm control being lost while underway!
Some of the engines had been damaged due to a high level of ‘abrasives’ in the ‘bad fuel’ and now required rebuilding, apparently and understandably a lengthy and expensive process.
As there are a limited number of container ships in the world, it’s expected that this issue will only add to the current supply chain problems.
The supplier of the ‘bad fuel’ was unknown, and nothing was mentioned regarding the Russian embargo but I couldn’t help but see the possible connection to outcomes when changing fuel from one supplier to another, compounded with political, haste and cost issues.
This would fit neatly into Mr Vilches description regarding the fact that Russian oil is unique as it’s *Russian oil*, and one just can’t change to something else overnight without consequences.
The flow on from the loss of the container ships is alarming.
With your special Old Guard style introduction and other favorable comments you sure make for fine company buddy… Nice to have you around oldguy101 with such detailed ‘bad fuel’ specifics which bring the point home really fast, right ? Good data 101…
I mean just one single ‘bad fuel’ batch and imagine the never ending down/time impact, damages, repairs, claims, potential accidents in docks or with other vessels with possible injuries, altered freight delivery schedules, liabilities everywhere and helluva a clean.up mess also contaminating freight tanks, plant tanks, service stations, what.have.you man !! Imagine this happening in the Baltic to elegant Dutch port managers or bad mouthed Greek captains in the Mediterranean ! You think Germans would put up with this ? Thanks for your favorable comments and valuable data input which skeptics should look into in depth. We keep counting on your excellent reporting and timing capability oldguy101 !!!
Singapore is home of the world’s biggest marine refuelling hub now forced to investigate the contamination of bunker fuel supplied to at least 14 ships that received tainted high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) suffering LOSS of POWER and engine problems as other 34 vessels were identified as having received contaminated HSFO deliveries. In some cases, the vessels even required a tow to port…
Great article; I have shared it. You have beautifully pulled together a lot of complicated material and laid it out clearly for us. The situation would be funny if it weren’t so awful.
Many thanks Anemm, at least I try my very best.
Nice hearing that it may help to understand the topic better.
Please do report us any comments even not favorable coments that you may get from friends, etc.
“Russia’s oil revenue soars despite sanctions” says Bloomberg.
For Russia, oil is where the money is, nat/gas not as much.
The EU knows this and attempts to push for a “ban.Russian.oil” strategy, so far to no avail.
Russia has earned roughly $20 billion per month from crude exports so far this year
That is $ 100 billion approx. or one third of the Russian savings frozen by the EU at European banks.
The EU does not dare to suggest suspending Russian gas imports for technical reasons and prohibitive replacement costs.
But West can solve all these problems.
The West is commanded by such geniuses
Who can easily solve everything
Thanks, and we all sure hope the West solves this messy mess Sarajevo, most specially if living in Europe. Cordially Jorge
Growth is over. We are now in the beginning of more human death, not more human life.
All things being equal, everything you say is 100% accurate.
But all things are never equal in the very instant after you utter your plan.
You assume growth.
There will be no growth – not for a very long time.
Entropy on Earth rules.
And now the reducing window of enthalpy – as the gap between energy-in and energy-out is reduced by the rising ambient temperature of the Earth – reduces the useful work we claim from entropizing the sources at-hand.
You would be a good thinker if you actually understood the laws of thermodynamics.
Perhaps you would get some truth from the conversion of mass to energy via Quantum physics?
But no – you do not even understand that – nor do you understand how there are limits in that domain that support the entropic master found by Newton.
Until you can articulate the physics? your voice is just noise.
Just another bird on a twig shouting for a female. Shouting how “clever” you are.
And clever? Not much.
How about you try a new song?
It will be fun, and you will feel better?
And you will get more “chicks” ;)
Phil, thanks for acknowledging that “everything I say is 100% accurate”.
Of course I don´t agree with that simply because no human is 100% accurate on anything, thank God.
Phil, for the record, I also did not “assume” growth. Nope, did not say that. I said that current EU plans require to have EU growth into account. The EU requires its vendor base to be able to satisfy “possible” growth.
Satisfying current EU demands is not enough. You need to prove you can accomodate EU growth.
Whether that happens or not is a story for another day, but your bid won´t even be considered if satisfying “possible” EU growth is not part of your offer, which by the way has to be precisely defined in specific percentages such as, for example, maximum of a 5% p.a.volumetric growth from in any individual year to the other in a 50 year supply contract. Yes, correct, that´s FIFTY years. This means that potential EU vendors need to set aside $$$$ to re-invest profits exclusively dedicated to “possible” EU growth. Big deal, oh yes, but it´s the only way to feed the children that necessarily come when Franz marries gorgeous Natasha.
And of course everything is dynamic, never static, just like life is. All the more reasons for not experimenting with unknown newcomers and just keeping the proven, reliable, fully vetted and capable Russian vendor. Mitch, can you imagine what the beach-side bazaar performance would be ?
I think Russia has said will not deal with EU but only individual countries. They have eg left PACE.
You really have to wonder about the European lemmings, rushing towards the cliff face of a future frozen winter, and maybe the winter directly ahead!
Can sophisticated Europeans be so stupid as to listen to the politicians, goading them to the cliff edge?
When Russia dismantled the Warsaw Pact, it is a pity the did not also demand the dismantling of NATO.
These military alliances lead only to collective war, as in WW1!
Well-composed, excellent and very informative! Certainly from just the Chemical Engineering viewpoint feedstock changes usually require a LOT more than “a few software tweaks” (that is, if you value your plant and plant operators’ lives!)
Replacement (if at all possible) of the Russian blends will be a big challenge, and the political elite really have NO idea of what they are heading for. Summer might be just around the corner, but winter’s none too dar distant, and for much of the EU, winters can be “somewhat harsh”.
Passing the page .URL to many friends and colleagues – some will agree (“obviously Pro-Russian Sympathisers”), whilst many are still living the “West is always best” dream – a dream taht’s well on the way to being decisively shattered.
True that Phil.
Supporting your take today we have fresh news from technical-savvy people anticipating
” A perfect and UN-avoidable storm: LNG supply crisis will make landfall in winter 2022″
The current spot price for “tankered” LNG is really high! $10 million in 2020, but a whopping $281 million right now (the cost of the ship is “only” about $250 million!)
So costly ship (in comparison to bulk carriers – an “ordinary” 30,000 tonne tanker is “only” $50 million), and costly cargo = VERY high insurance costs – all passed on to the final product user (Mr & Mrs average with their possibly not so well-insulated home!)
Very happy to be living in (comparatively warmer) Australia right now!
Thanks for your favorable comments Phil S.
Your impress as chemically-knowledgeable, so your valuable technical input is welcome… and needed.
Please also post your critical judgement as your objections are also most welcome.
Through valid critical objections we all learn and improve.
Phil S. please if all possible briefly educate us all from the IT modification perspective.
What would be needed and what would IT nerds think about all of the required re-programming of stuff.
I am not IT oriented, but I do know enough to warn about how problematic it can get to be.
Any ideas of schedule sequences, what comes first, what second ?
Because I can just foresee that IT requirements simply come FIRST, meaning chaos as politicians in charge will say ´no time for details´ you follow me ?
Talk to us Phil S., please do
Hi Jorge, and thank you for the reply! No “significant” Chem.Eng. knowledge (the Wife, however, DOES have a lot more than I do!). As a Microbiologist I’ve some experience up to pilot-scale fermenter operations, and there are a lot of variables that can have a cumulative effect in the fermentation industry alone – things that you might not even consider.
There are a lot of videos on the ‘Net demonstrating the pitfalls of unsafe / incorrect petrochem. operations (the US USCSB videos are excellent animations), and one gets the gist that even slight changes can have cumulative effects, especially if not noticed or understood.
Control systems (software and firmware) Do have some built-in flexibility (to allow management of slight variations), however major feedstock changes (esp. chem. composition, and even moreso for volatiles composition) can be an operational problem. There have been more than a few adverse events resulting from unplanned (and unexpected) inflammable vapour accumulations and consequent ignitions.
” Berlin reportedly aims to find new suppliers and resolve logistical problems within six to seven months”
TRANSLATION from bureacratese
• “6 to 7 months” with traditional oil & gas industry delays + political-bureaucratic interference + unavoidable mission creep ACTUALLY means in the very best of cases by January 2024. And I´ll have to see it to believe it. And if Russia actively hinders the not-yet-even-prepared schedule with its non-military asymmetric interventions it can be delayed FOREVER, trust me.
• “NEW” suppliers necessarily means unvetted, experimental, probably only partial, with in turn dozens of never coordinated business associates at each and every single stage of the project
• “logistical” problems to be resolved means they know all about my article as if them had co-authored.
Changing the oil and gas mixtures, into the refineries, from their designed inputs, would be similar to saying, ‘Europe will now switch from a 230V mains supply, to 280V mains supply’, and expecting that the system would not crash, and that the domestic appliances would not explode! It cannot be done!
You may expect that something as basic as Australian iron ore, shipped to the steel making plants in Japan, Korea, and China, etc, would be a simple and ‘idiot proof’ process.
However, some of the Australian iron ore is so rich, something like 97% pure iron ore, that the steel foundries cannot operate with this grade of ore. This is why the iron ore is graded into different piles, and each hold in each of the iron ore ships, is designed to be sent to a designated customer, according to their individual specifications. It is a very precise process, for each steel foundry.
Now multiply this complexity ten fold for the petro-chemical plants, throughout Europe!
And imagine that the European politicians decide to follow their idealism, over pragmatic engineering, and end up shutting down Europe for six months, due to their new 280V power supply, symbolising their new hydro carbon mixes, or uranium mixes, into the nuclear plants.
Imagine trying to restart a single complex company, such as Airbus, with all its supply lines, after a six month freeze! People will have retired, left the business, business contacts lost, skills disappeared, etc, etc. And imagine this happening over an entire continent of businesses. It would be a demolition of the world we know, and a ticket to a technical insane asylum!
All four of my grandparents were European. All four had very different personalities and capabilities. All four were very hard working folks, no nonesense, maybe just some ceremonious music every now and then. No fun, all work. But no boredom possible either because there was always oh so much work to do…
All four turned out to be very successfull and acknowledged in their activities and professions. But they were not the exception by any means. Their contemporary immigrant “relations” who travelled with them in the same steam boat Third Class — not real friends as we know them — were all pretty much the same and got along peacefully amongst themselves even in a foreign land very far away from where they called home since birth.
And for different reasons I kept loving each of them — and their well-earned memories — very much so even as a full-grown adult. All four had indirect yet very strong influence upon my future success in my endeavors.
I am most thankfull to all four. I learned to love them very much, same as their countries of origin and their respective cultures which I still cherish with sincere fondness.
Now then, Ric, can you please explain to me what the hell happened in Europe, do you know, does anybody know ? Have they all gone bananas at the very same time ? What´s become of Europe ? Isn´t there anybody willing tp stop this crazy nonesense in its tracks ?
I suspect the Protocols of Zion. The European continent is being groomed to be trans-sexual, insect eaters, trying to borrow one hundred trillion dollars (Dr Evil) from the debt bankers, so they can try and change the temperature of the planet by one degree, to change global warming!
The Europeans are to be destroyed, their economies in ruins, their borders broken down, so that tens of millions will flood in from Africa, and the Middle East.
False pandemics, such as Covid, have them hiding under their beds, and wearing masks as if they are a slave class.
The media run their propaganda campaigns 24/7, until up is down, day is night, war is peace..
The frogs are being cooked, one decade at a time, until there will be nothing but despair.
My two cents, as I wonder the same things, Brexitologist!
And Brexitologist, I would add..
And when the people’s psyches have been deconstructed, when they have no sense left of the Eternal, when they are full of guilt and shame and self loathing, they will voluntarily walk up the ramps, into the human abattoirs, and be grateful for their own execution.
There can be no greater expression of dark power than this shredding of the Sacred, into 10,000 fragments of hate.
Let the music begin
Concerning an earlier topic:
How to make sure some country or company doesn’t try to claw back euros after Russia has delivered the gas.
There is an interesting discussion here—monologue, actually—regarding new EU guidelines to companies for (heh heh) getting round their own sanctions.
“Austria Threatens to Seize Gas Depot as Stoltenberg Claims “Ukraine can Win” – Inside Russia Report”
It all concerns a certain storage depot near Salzburg.
There is no gas in it, so Austria is saying: Fill it up with gas, or we will take it.
My understanding is that companies rent a certain amount of volume in a storage facility.
Obviously, if Austria has not paid for any gas, then Russia is not going to put any in the storage.
Then Austria says, “Your bad, too bad!” Russia says, just pay for your gas, then we will put some gas in your storage facility.
Anyhow, the whole issue seems to come down to the euro and ruble accounts in Gazprombank.
But it looks like the Austrians are playing a ridiculous game regarding the bank accounts.
I very much doubt that Austria is going to find another source of gas to fill up the cavern.
Another irony here is that apparently the EU has said it will OK capping gas prices—a violation of its competition rules. But it was the competition rules whereby the EU tried to decapitate and control Russia’s bas business with Europe in the first place!!
So, looks like the EU competition rules have resulted in a total FUBAR—including the war in and destruction of Ukraine.
Huge barriers confront EU’s exit from Russian gas
Europe needs new terminals, ships, sources and behavioral change, but Russia’s outlook is even grimmer
pogohere, good eye man !
Got no time now, talk to ya later okay ?
@ Jorge Vilches
a gift for you
Gerry, thanks lots, most appreciate it.
I do read a lot already, but I´m rather picky.
The problem, my problem is time.
I´d need a 100-hour days !!
Thanks again Jerry, and I´ll watch the Robert Redford movie ASAP for good entertainment