[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]
The recent elections to the Ukrainian Rada have yielded two most interesting results:
First, almost all the nationalist parties failed to get even one representative elected to the Rada (Poroshenko’s and Timoshenko’s parties did get some seats, but only 25 each)
Second, for the first time since the independence of the Ukraine, the country’s President will have an absolute majority in the Rada.
These are the results as reported by the Unian information agency:
The Servant of the People Party with 43.17% remains in the lead. The Opposition Platform – For Life Party ranks second with 13.01%, Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna Party ranks third with 8.18%, Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity Party has 8.11%, and Svyatoslav Vakarchuk’s Holos (Voice) Party has 5.83%. All the other parties failed to get a representative into the Rada.
Also of interest is the score of the “Opposition Platform – for Life” party (Rabinovich, Boyko, Medvedchuk) which got a total of 44 seats.
In plain English what this means is that the war parties have suffered a crushing electoral defeat.
One might be forgiven in thinking that this is fantastic news for Zelenskii, but in fact it is quite the opposite: this election result creates an extremely dangerous situation for him.
Why the outcome of elections is extremely dangerous for the Ukraine
The first thing that we need to remember is while the neo-Nazis suffered two crushing defeats in a row (in the Presidential election and in the Parliamentary elections), they have not somehow magically disappeared. Here is the key factoid which we must never forget:
In plain English this means that the Ukraine is ruled by oligarchs, mobs and death squads.
The entire Euromaidan is nothing more than the overthrow of one oligarchic gang by a combination of other oligarchic gangs which used neo-Nazi mobs to seize power. The fact that the USA and the EU backed this typical neo-Nazi coup really means very little: the West has always sided with anybody and everybody who is in some way against Russia. This has been true since the Middle-Ages and it is still true today (I would even argue that Hitler’s rise to power was yet another operation by the Anglosphere to try to control the European continent and the fact that eventually the Nazi golem turned on its intended masters, does not change that).
The oligarchs are still there, as are the neo-Nazis mobs and death squads. And that creates an immense problem for Zelenskii: this new Rada might well represent the views of a majority of the Ukrainian people, but the real power in the country is not concentrated in the Rada at all: it is in the streets.
Legally speaking, Zelenskii does have the tools to crack down on the oligarchs and the neo-Nazis, but in practical terms he has nothing. Okay, maybe not quite “nothing”, but whatever power he has is rooted much more in the fact that he has the backing of the ultimate Uber-oligarch Kolomoiskii (whom many consider to be the real “president” of the Ukraine, Zelenskii being nothing more than a puppet). Not only that, but Kolomoiskii has many scores to settle with Poroshenko’s gang, and we can be pretty sure that he will want to his enemies to pay for what they did to him under the previous regime.
So let’s sum it up.
The people of the Ukraine desperately want peace. For the time being, the Rada reflects this overwhelmingly important fact. I say “for the time being” because what will happen next is that the various forces and individuals who currently support Zelenskii have done so just to gain power. They do not, however, have a common ideological platform or even a common program. As soon as things go south (which they will inevitably do) many (most?) of these folks will turn against Zelenskii and side with whoever can muster the biggest crowds and mete out the most violence.
In theory, Zelenskii could “go Putin” and crush the oligarchs. But Zelenskii is no Putin, to put it mildly. Furthermore, the true reason why the Ukrainian oligarchs hate and fear Russia is not because of some supposed Grand-Russian nationalism or imperialism, but because they want to keep the Ukraine in the same dysfunctional and very profitable condition in which this poor country has been kept since 1991. When Putin came to power and cracked down on the Russian oligarchs, the Ukrainian oligarchs looked in absolute horror at what was happening in Russia, and they decided to do whatever it takes to prevent that from ever happening in the Ukraine.
There is a well-known slogan in the Ukraine “Путин прыйдэ – порядок навэдэ” which can be translated as “Putin came and restored order”. This is the Ukie oligarch’s ultimate nightmare. As it so happens, it is also the AngloZionist Empire’s ultimate nightmare. Hence the apparently bizarre alliance between Anglos, Zionists and Nazis: they all fear that Putin will come and restore order to the Ukraine. Add to this the hallucinations of Hillary (“Putin wants to restore the USSR”) and Brzezinski (“Russia needs the Ukraine to be a superpower”) and you have a simple and all-encompassing explanation for what we have seen taking place in the Ukraine since the Euromaidan.
Interestingly, there are even indicators that Putin is very popular with a majority of the Ukrainian people (see here, here, here or here). This might, in part at least, explain why Poroshenko’s campaign was centered on the “either me or Putin” concept which, considering the crushing defeat suffered by Poroshenko, could suggest that Putin was the real winner of the last election or, alternatively, that folks only voted for Zelenskii as the least pro-war and the most anti-Poroshenko candidate: a kind of anti-anti-Putin candidate, at least while campaigning. Now that he got elected, Zelenskii quasi-instantly switched to the exact same rhetoric as what got Poroshenko so severely defeated. Why?
Because Zelenskiii is afraid that the neo-Nazi mobs and death squads will be unleashed against him at the very first opportunity. In fact, the neo-Nazis have already begun promising a new Maidan (see here or here).
Conclusion: Zelenskii has two options, both very dangerous
The truth is that Zelenskii has to choose between acting on the will of the people and face the wrath of the neo-Nazis or do the will of the neo-Nazis and face the wrath of the people: tertium non datur!
And if that was not bad enough, there is another factor making this even worse for Zelenskii: nobody can meaningfully help him.
Experience has already shown that the AngloZionists are long on promises and short on real action. In fact, we can be pretty sure that, besides more empty anti-Russian slogans, the West has very little to offer the Ukraine. And, frankly, the USA and the EU have enough very real problems to deal with to continue to waste time, energy and money on what Trump really would no doubt (privately) call a “shithole”, thereby overlooking the undeniable fact that the Ukraine is only a shithole because of the immense resources spent by the Empire to turn it into a shithole in the first place (in the Soviet times, the Ukraine was the richest and most prosperous Soviet republic).
In theory, Russia could help, of course. But we can rest assured that the neo-Nazis will immediately call for a new Maidan if Zelenskii makes any meaningful overtures to Russia. Their outraged screams will be further supported by an entire “choir” of no less horrified western politicians.
Right now Zelenskii talks the very same talk which Poroshenko, Timoshenko and the rest of the Nazi freaks talked. But he must realize that if he also walks the walk, then he will end up just as universally hated as Poroshenko is now. So what can he do?
The Ukraine desperately needs better relations with Russia, but that is impossible as long as there is a war going on in the Donbass. Furthermore, there is one question which now every Russian and Ukrainian politician has to answer: Whose is the Crimea? This is just about the most polarizing question right now, and one which forces every person to chose between the Empire (main sponsor of the “Crimea belongs to the Ukraine forever” reply) and Putin’s Russia (in which everybody except the most terminally stupid liberal politicians reply “Crimea belongs to Russia forever”).
So far, Zelenskii has apparently decided that talking is all he is going to do simply because his triumphant electoral victories have landed him in the middle of an immense minefield, and any steps he takes from now on could cost him very dearly. Right now, in the short term, the neo-Nazi mobs represent a much bigger danger to Zelenskii than the (disorganized, demoralized and generally apathetic) people. But this will inevitably change as the economic and political situation gets worse.
The sad reality is that the Nazi occupation of the Ukraine has turned the country into a prototypical failed state and that there are no signs of any kind indicating that things might get better, even marginally, for the foreseeable future. Personally, I am inclined to think that the “least bad” outcome for this entirely artificial country to begin with, would be to break up into several different parts, maybe joined by some kind of very loose confederation, possibly united by a common declaration of neutrality. Not only would that solve Ukraine’s artificiality problem, but it would also make it easier (including politically) for external actors (US, EU, Russia, UN, OSCE, EEU, SCO, etc.) to help those successor states which will form following the break-up of the current monolith.
For the time being Zelenskii appears to be dead set to repeat some of the worst mistakes of Poroshenko: the latest news is that the Ukies have now seized a Russian tanker. This is a truly fantastically stupid decision as we already know what Russia will do in retaliation: “inspect” (sometimes for many hours) Ukrainian ships thereby causing immense financial loses to the owners of these ships. Whether Zelenskii ordered this operation (or, at least, authorized it) or not is irrelevant. If he did – then he is just as stupid and clueless as Poroshenko. If he did not – then he is not in control. Either way, that’s just more trouble for Zelenskii already less than impressive debut as President.