[This analysis was written for the Unz Review]
The first round of the Presidential election in the Ukraine took place on April Fool’s Day and it could be tempting to dismiss it all like a big farce which, of course, it was, but, we should not overlook the fact that some very interesting and important events have just taken place. I won’t discuss them all right now, there will be plenty of time for that in the future. For now I will only focus on those elements of a much bigger picture which seem most critical to me. These elements are:
The Nazis suffered a *crushing* defeat in this election.
By “Nazis” I primarily mean their main figurehead – Petro Poroshenko (the rest of the “minor Nazis” did so poorly that they don’t matter anymore). Think of it: in spite of his immense wealth (he outspent everybody else and even spent more that twice what the next big spender – Tymoshenko – doled out for each vote), in spite of his immense “administrative resource” (that is the Russian expression for the ability to use the power of the state for your personal benefit), in spite of his “victory” with the Tomos, in spite of triggering the Kerch bridge incident, in spite of breaking all the remaining treaties with Russia, in spite of his control of the media and in spite of the (now admittedly lukewarm) support of the West, Poroshenko suffered a crushing defeat. See for yourself:
Look at the only two regions Petro Poroshenko (i.e. the Nazis) actually won (in blue) and see how nicely they overlap with the rough historical contours of the Galicia region. But Poroshenko managed to even lose part of that to Iulia Tymoshenko! Bottom line: except for a minority of rabid hardcore Nazis in Galicia, the rest of the Ukraine hates the Poroshenko Ukronazi regime. We always knew that, but now we have the proof.
Now I don’t want to present that just as some kind of massive anti-Nazi vote because, in truth, this is first and foremost a massive no-confidence vote against the entire ruling elite of the Banderastan which emerged in 2014 as a result of the Euromaidan coup d’etat. Remember how Poroshenko promised peace in weeks, a full respect for the Russian language and prosperity for all? Well, all he delivered was chaos, insecurity, poverty, violence, a massive influx of Ukronazis from Canada and the USA and, above all, a completely hysterical, rabid, russophobia combined with abject groveling before the AngloZionist Empire. He also brought an absolutely unbelievable level of corruption, having personally doubled his net worth many times over. The legacy Ziomedia and the Ukropropaganda can say all they want, and they can try to ban the Russian media and Internet in the Ukraine. But the truth is that everybody in the Ukraine knows that the Ukraine went from being the richest Soviet Republic to the poorest country in Europe. In fact, there are quite a few African countries which are doing much better than the Ukraine. The truth is, and has been for several years now, that the Ukraine is a failed state and that there is absolutely no even vaguely plausible scenario in the foreseeable future in which the Ukraine could begin to recover.
Hence this amazing result: short of the Galician Nazis, everyone else absolutely hates the regime in power. So Poroshenko’s score is a humiliating defeat for all the Ukronazis. But not for Petro Poroshenko himself!
Petro Poroshenko scores a remarkable personal victory
Poroshenko’s absolutely vital goal was to make it into the 2nd round. Had he failed to make it he would have had to immediately jump into an aircraft and leave the country (because the most likely victor of the Presidential election would have been Iulia Tymoshenko and we can be darn sure that she would immediately jail him and most of his cronies). In order to make it into the 2nd round, Poroshenko did not have to defeat Zelenskii, but only defeat Tymoshenko and that Poroshenko also succeeded in doing. Oh sure – it was thanks to a huge, massive fraud all over the country (especially in the easternmost and westernmost regions) and he beat her only by 2.5% but that is more than enough.
Besides, it is practically impossible to falsify an election and compensate for, say, a 15%-20% difference. But to cheat and change a result by less than 5% is much more doable. In fact, if we assume that a 5% fraud is well within the means of an outgoing President and billionaire, then we can also see that we will never know who really won. See here for an almost finished (99.68%) count for the top four contenders:
While Zelenskii is untouchable and way ahead of everybody else, Poroshenko, Tymoshenko and Boiko are all within less than 5% of each other.
Keep in mind that Boiko is the closest thing to a pro-Russian candidate and that just a few years ago he was virtually unknown. See for yourself:
Look at the stats for 2014: Poroshenko had 55% of the vote, Tymoshenko 8% and Boiko just about 0%. Please also notice that in the 2018 poll Tymoshenko is way ahead of Poroshenko while Boiko is not far behind. As for Zelenskii, he scores just like Poroshenko.
[Sidebar: this is not today’s topic, but Boyko’s score is rather amazing considering that he was presented by the entire Ukronazi propaganda machine as “Putin’s agent” and that he even had the audacity to travel to Moscow to meet with Gazprom CEO Miller and Prime Minister Medvedev. Boiko not only won as many regions as Poroshenko – 2 – but the eastern Ukraine clearly voted for him, which tells us all we need to know about where the true sympathies of the people of the Donbass really are. In fact, we can be pretty sure that this outcome has been carefully noted in Donetsk and Lugansk and that this only makes the position of the Novorussians vis-à-vis Kiev even stronger. Finally, it should also be noted here that the outcome of this first round of elections further confirms that the current Banderastan is falling apart and that this is an artificial country with artificial borders and no heritage (cultural, linguistic, religious or political) common to all the people currently living under the Nazi occupation.]
What we see here is a double effort by Poroshenko: on one hand he used his immense personal wealth and his equally immense “administrative resource” to buy as many votes as possible, while on the other hand he got the missing votes simply by falsifying the election. In fact, I think that pretty much all the main candidates agree that the election was stolen, except for the two who benefited from this.
[Sidebar: we will never know for sure how much of the votes were stolen but Rostislav Ishchenko, probably currently the best expert on the Ukraine, estimates that no less than 20% of the votes were stolen, and of these no less than 10% were stolen from Iulia Tymoshenko. Of course, this is just his best guesstimate, and 20% sounds extremely high to me, but he is the expert with deep connections on all levels in the Ukraine. What is certain – and everybody agrees on that – is that the fraud was massive, way bigger than in any previous Ukrainian election]
Will the Zionists replace the Nazis next?
First, I want to share with you this ecstatic “victory speech” by the The Tablet Magazine (“daily online magazine of Jewish news, ideas, and culture“) which, amongst many other interesting things, heaps lavish praise on Poroshenko for being so staunchly pious about the memory of the “Holocaust” and having Jewish aides:
Poroshenko will likely be remembered by the history books as the president who was most attentive to the work of honoring Holocaust memory since Ukraine gained its independence from Russia during the collapse of the Soviet Union. The 75th anniversary of the Babi Yar massacre, held in 2016, was an international event conducted by Poroshenko and his administration with immense tact and generosity. Poroshenko has also been personally comfortable with Jewish aides, including both of his chiefs of staff and the country’s current prime minister, Volodymyr Groysman. Poroshenko will likely be remembered by the history books as the president who was most attentive to the work of honoring Holocaust memory since Ukraine gained its independence from Russia during the collapse of the Soviet Union. The 75th anniversary of the Babi Yar massacre, held in 2016, was an international event conducted by Poroshenko and his administration with immense tact and generosity. Poroshenko has also been personally comfortable with Jewish aides, including both of his chiefs of staff and the country’s current prime minister, Volodymyr Groysman.
Amazing, no? Zionist praise for a Nazi junta leader? In fact, there is absolutely nothing amazing about that at all, not any more amazing than the so-called “Christians United For Israel“. I have always maintained that Zionism and National-Socialism are two sides of the same coin, born from the same ugly womb (European secular nationalism) and that all that separates them is a flipped hierarchical scale, that’s all. Fundamentally, Nazis and Zionists are twin brothers, even if deep down they hate (and often admire!) each other.
The Tablet article goes on to mention that while Tymoshenko is hiding her Jewish roots, Zelenskii does not. In fact, Zelenskii is just a glorified puppet and everybody in the Ukraine knows that his puppet-master is Igor Kolomoiskii who is waiting out the final outcome of the Presidential election safely hidden in, you guessed it, Israel. This is how the Tablet concludes:
The transformation wrought in Ukraine by the Maidan revolution has been an exhilarating roller coaster that has not bypassed Ukrainian Jewry, which is now in the midst of an exciting period of cultural revival paralleling that of the wider Ukrainian society, which is still just beginning to rediscover its own past and imagine an independent future. Whether this post-Soviet country will choose to elect an openly Jewish president, or a part-Jewish president, or continue with its current philo-Semitic president, the future of Ukraine’s Jews would appear to be brighter than anyone might reasonably have imagined.
This really says it all, doesn’t it?
So yes, if Zelenskii gets elected in the 2nd round, this will be a huge victory for the transnational “Grand Israel” otherwise known as the AngloZionist Empire. But can Zelenskii really get elected and will the Nazis accept defeat?
Comparing Poroshenko and Zelenskii
Where Poroshenko was the ultimate apparatchik Zelenskii is the ultimate outsider and just as the people of the USA did not vote “for” Trump as much as they voted “against” Hillary, so the people of the Ukraine did not really vote “for” Zelenskii, but “against” Poroshenko. In fact, Zelenskii does not have anything resembling a political program (only vague and nice sounding slogans) and he most certainly has no other political record other than being a standup comedian and actors in several (pretty good) satirical series. Frankly, it appears that Zelenskii was as stunned by his victory as Trump was by his. Still, in theory, it is almost impossible for Poroshenko to win this one. Not only do all the other candidates hate Poroshenko way more than they would dislike Zelenskii, voters for Tymoshenko or Boiko are far more likely to vote for Zelenskii than for Poroshenko.
This creates an extremely dangerous situation: Poroshenko can only win by a massive fraud.
Now Tymoshenko did declare that the first round was stolen, but she decided not to appeal this officially. Furthermore, it is now apparent that Tymoshenko was ditched by most of her US supporters, something which she clearly did not expect and which came as a total shock to her, hence her stunned reaction to the announced figures. She has always been, and still is, a remarkably intelligent lady and a very calculating realist: she simply knows that an official rejection of the outcome from her would make no difference. But you can be sure that behind the scenes the interests Tymoshenko represents are now talking to the people of Kolomoiskii and that Poroshenko is fully aware of that.
In spite of being the most universally hated politician in the Ukraine, Poroshenko managed, in extremis, not only to get into the 2nd round but he also managed to be opposed by a weak and generally ridiculous opponent like Zelenskii whom he would crush in a debate (which Zelenskii will probably refuse precisely for this reason) rather than against a formidable opponent by any measure like Tymoshenko. So that part of the plan worked. What did not work is that the Nazis clearly under-estimated how hated they have become.
Conclusion: a very interesting and very dangerous situation
Poroshenko is now truly cornered: he absolutely must win, or he must run. In order to win, his options are very limited: he can do more of the same (buy and/or steal votes), of course, but that is unlikely to be sufficient. But a massive crisis of some kind, preferably against Russia (of course!) would come in really handy right now. I hope that the Kremlin has placed everybody on high alert as the danger of a provocation (especially a false flag) are higher than ever before.
Another very real possibility in case of a Zelenskii victory is an violent insurrection by the Ukronazi death-squads (known as “dobrobats” in Ukrainian). Such an armed insurrection could have the support of key units and individuals in the police and security forces. Should that happen, it is very possible that Moscow would officially refuse to deal with the new junta and declare that Russia recognizes the Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics which, paradoxically, could be a great deal for the Ukronazis as this would trigger a crisis serious enough to justify martial law and any imaginable crackdown in civil and human rights.
Alternatively, if Poroshenko comes up with some kind of pretext to either cancel the 2nd round or with some trick to prevent Zelenskii from participating, then there is a very real risk that the 80%+ of people who voted against Poroshenko and who hate the current regime with all their heart will protest, possibly violently. We can be sure that the repression will be ruthless and violent.
For all these reasons the situation right now is the most dangerous one since the Euromaidan.
The key issue here is what will the AngloZionist Empire decide? The problem here is that it has been years since the USA has had anything even vaguely resembling a “US foreign policy”. Under Obama and, even more so under Mr MAGA, the State Department has become just a public information agency whose sole role is to deliver either sanctions, or threats, or both. This is absolutely crucial so I will repeat it:
==>>There is no such thing as a “US foreign policy”<<==
What we do see is key agencies, actors, individuals all having their own “mini foreign policies” which sometimes brings about goofy results (like when the CIA and the Pentagon support different sides in a conflict). In fact, the two main branches of Ukrainian politics – Nazis and Zionists – are both richly represented in the US government and various entities support different candidates and different agendas. The same is also true for the EU, but since the EU is almost irrelevant (Victoria Nuland was quite right about that), this does not matter.
It would be an exaggeration to say that the US lost control of the Ukraine, but Trump clearly cares very little about the Ukronazis and as for Trump’s puppet masters, they don’t seem to be able to agree on a single policy towards this issue. Hence we see in the Ukraine what we see everywhere in Trump’s pretend foreign policy: absolute, total chaos.
What about Russia in all this?
Right now the big debate in Russia is “to recognize the outcome of this election or not?”. Both sides have very strong arguments and the Kremlin keeps making very vague statements clearly waiting for the outcome of the 2nd round of the election. This is a very tricky question made even more complex by a growing realization amongst many observers that recognizing the Poroshenko regime the first time around was a big mistake. Personally, it seems to me that at this point in time all the Kremlin can do is wait and see what will take place. After all, Poroshenko is truly cornered and there is a high likelihood that he will do something dramatic to avoid a 2nd round of voting. Consider this:
The infamous Minister of the Interior, Arsen Avakov, arguably currently the most powerful and dangerous man in the Ukraine, has made an most interesting statement about Zelenskii:
“A decent man from another world. From another plane. Ready to deal with problems, but at the same time recognizing that in many issues he is not fully competent. In my understanding, this means that he is ready to delegate authority. However, the question arises: can we – Ukrainian society – offer the quality of the elite, which can be entrusted with the implementation of such powers? After all, if he delegates authority to scoundrels – as it happens in some series of “Servants of the people” – it will be very bad for the country. Using expats is also not an option…”(…) “He knows for sure that from point A it is necessary to come to point B, and I am ready to agree with it. But the problem is how to go this way. Often, if you go head-on, you will crash into a wall or break. Therefore, it is necessary to choose the right path – and here should work competent and honest specialists”
In plain English this simply means: Zelenskii has no personal power base, he will be a puppet, so he better offer me a good deal (“delegate authority“), or I will turn against him and, how knows, an unpredictable accident (“you will crash into a wall or break“) can easily happen. Shocking? Welcome to “Ukrainian thug politics”! Besides, if the Nazis decide to kill Zelenskii they can easily blame it on Russia. Either that, or on a “lone, deranged, gunman” which they can find in the thousands amongst the various Nazi death-squads.
Right now the Nazis are in a total panic, they are declaring that Zelenskii’s victory is “Moscow’s triumph”, they say that Zelenskii will sell out everything Ukrainian and that he is a Putin agent. At the very least, they will now dig up as much dirt on Zelenskii as possible (whether real or manufactured). Thus literally anything can happen in the next couple of weeks, ranging from some kind of scandal in Zelenskii’s past to a Ukronazi attack on the Donbass.
This is why the Kremlin must now wait and see what happens next.
However, since in practical and political terms the difference between Poroshenko and Zelenskii is roughly the difference between Coca-Cola and Pepi-Cola, the Kremlin knows that no matter who actually wins, the russophobic policies of the current Ukronazi regime will not change. Furthermore, there is a increasingly vocal segment of the Russian public opinion which is totally fed-up and disgusted with the Ukronazis and which now demands a much tougher stance towards the Ukraine.
In truth, there is a broader unfavorable context which makes a redefinition of Russia’s policies towards her neighbors both urgently needed and very delicate: two key Russian allies (or “assumed allies”?) like Belarus and Kazakhstan are acting in very ambiguous and sometimes even anti-Russian manner and there is clearly a renewed effort of the Empire to break these two countries out of the Russian sphere of influence and subordinated them to AngloZionist interests. Right now the Kremlin is trying to appease Lukashenko by giving him even more money ($600 million) and I am not so sure that this is the right approach. As for Kazakhstan, so far the Russians are pretending that all is well and dandy in spite of the fact that an increasing number of ethnic Russians are, again, leaving the country and seeking refuge in Russia. Frankly, there is only that much one can get with carrots, and holding a visible stick might be more helpful in this case, especially considering that the Empire has many more “carrots” (money) to offer than Russia.
If insanity is doing the same thing expecting different results, it is time for the Russians to come up with new policies towards their most important neighbors. If not, then “more of the same, only worse” is all Russia will get.
As for the Empire, it does what it always does
Finally, I want to conclude here by focusing on the absolutely despicable, revolting and totally hypocritical self-induced blindness of the West about this election. If all this had happened in Russia (or Venezuela, or Iran) the entire united West would be up in arms denouncing the ‘stolen election’ and threatening fire and brimstone if the Russians did not immediately fall on their knees and kiss the Emperor’s ring (I wonder what kind of ring, if any, Trump has) or something to that effect. But since the toxic regime of Ukronazis cum Zionists in Kiev is “our son of a bitch”, the leaders of the Empire are acting like the three monkeys: see nothing, hear nothing and, above all, say nothing.
Truly, the AngloZionist Empire must be the most hypocritical and dishonest in world history. Think of it:
Pretty much all the candidates have declared that this election was stolen. As did all the Ukrainian media not controlled by Poroshenko. Not only that, but millions (some estimates are as high as 10 million) of Ukrainians (mostly, but not only, aboard) were prevented from voting. Thousands of complaints were officially lodged. But no, the global West did not notice. As for the US, it declared this election free and fair (now there is a surprise!).
At the very least, the Empire could have made a (very credible) “Guaido” out of Tymoshenko (who clearly should have been either first or second), but she was ditched, probably as way too smart and too potentially independent minded: the Empire likes its puppet to be stupid, or drunk, or both (think Eltsin or Poroshenko here). Having to chose between two non-entities like Zelenskiii or Poroshenko is much preferable for the Neocons than to have to deal with a smart women like Tymoshenko and, thus, no amount of russophobia on her part will be sufficient to reassure the World Hegemon that she is worth preserving.
UPDATE: as usual, the Ukie politics does stuff which is almost impossible to imagine. This time around, Zelenskii accepted to debate Poroshenko but on 2 conditions: they would both take a blood/urine test to check for psychotropic substances (not sure about alcohol) and the debate would take place… … in a stadium with 70’000 people! Poroshenko accepted and both candidates were seen on local TV giving their blood for testing (no, I am not joking!). This is going to be amazing! 35’000 pro-Nazis plus another 35’000 pro-Zionists in one stadium, these two clowns (Poroshenko is even more a clown than Zelenskii, except that he is not funny at all) will be debating each other on live TV in the middle. Your guess is as good as mine as to whether this will ever happen, but it if does, it will be truly a moment to behold :-)