Intro: setting the current context

Before we take a look at some of the most interesting recent developments, I think that it is important to clearly state something which needs to be repeated almost constantly: what we are witnessing today is not a war between Russia and the Ukraine, but between Russia and the united, consolidated, West.  In practical terms this means that Russia is at war with the United States and NATO, the latter being no more than a docile, if ineffective, instrument for the latter.  Furthermore, since some NATO countries are now playing a crucial role in the war against Russia (UK, Sweden, Poland and the Ukraine, the latter being a de facto NATO member), I submit that the best and simplest way to describe this was is to say that it is a NATO Crusade against Russia.

As for Banderastan, it is already a full NATO member state with about the same rights as all the other NATO members states besides the US: none.  Right now, the so-called “Ukrainian forces” are already composed of anywhere between 40% to 80% composed of foreign fighters (depending on the importance of the location) and include plenty of actual NATO personnel.  By the way, most of the ex-Soviet kit held by former WTO members has been destroyed by Russia, which poses a very thorny problem to NATO: they cannot ship more Soviet kit to Banderastan, and if they ship their own, they will not only lose it forever but the general public (or, at least, those who need to know) will know that western weapons systems are anything but a Wunderwaffe: some is very good, some okay, most of it is useless against a modern adversary.  Remember the “awesome” Bayraktars?  Where are they now?  The same goes for all the other Wunderwaffen of course…

Why a Crusade?  Many reasons, ranging from the fact that western imperialism was born with the original Crusades to the fact that, as always, the West is hating and trying to destroy Russia with a truly religious fervor, albeit a clearly satanic one (all western Crusades were satanic in inspiration, but that is a topic for another time).

By the way, understanding this has major force planning implications for Russia.  First, the SMO in the Ukraine is only one special case in a much wider war which, in reality, already involves most of our planet (at least in economic and political terms).  Second, while Russia has to conduct her SMO, she also has to prepare for a overt, full-scale, war with the West, possibly a nuclear one.  Simply put: Russia has to keep the vast majority of her resources and capabilities ready for much larger conflict than the one we are currently witnessing.   Put differently, Russia does not want to commit the same mistake as the one made by NATO when it flooded the Ukraine with so much weapon systems that it now lacks them for its own use.  With this in mind, I suggest that we look at a few interesting developments:

One: is Russia using Iranian drones or not and, if yes, why?

First, let’s state the obvious: both Russia and Iran have denied that Iran had exported drones to Russia.  Next, let’s state something equally obvious: while this might be true, most observers don’t seem to believe that Tehran and Moscow are being truthful here.

One major problem is that most observers make very questionable assumptions including the following.  If Russia is indeed using Iranian drones, it is because:

  • Iranian drones are superior to Russian ones
  • Russia is running out of drones

So let’s address those two points.

Are Iranian drones superior to Russian ones?  This question cannot be answered as such because two terms are not properly defined: the term “drone” and the term “superior”.

First, “drones” (aka UAV) range from tiny quads you can place in the palm of your hand to large, aircraft sized, and very sophisticated drones.  So let’s arbitrarily decide that all drones can be placed into one of five categories: A, B, C, D and F.  Next, when we compare Russian and Iranian drone capabilities, we need to avoid the “apples and oranges” logical trap and compare category by category.  It might be that in categories A, B, D and F Russia has much more capable drones than Iran, but that Iran is in the lead for C type of drones.

Is that possible, even in theory?

Oh yes, absolutely!  Iran has been developing very sophisticated UAV and missiles and it has used them in Iraq or the KSA with devastating effectiveness.  More importantly, for the Iranian authorities, developing a very strong UAV/missile capability is a national priority and, possibly, the key to deter the AngloZionists.  And while in Russia the military industrial complex has developed plenty of sophisticated drones, I would argue that before the initiation of the SMO drones were a lesser priority for Russia than for Iran.  Thus is is quite possible that while Russia might lead in some types of drones, Iran might have superior capabilities in another type(s) of drones.

Then there is the issue of costs.  Iranian drones are very *very* cheap, especially when compared to some much more expensive Russian equivalents.

Finally, there is the issue of availability.  Even if Russia’s drone X is superior to the Iranian drone Y, that does not mean that Russia can produce enough X drones for her needs, so why not purchase much cheaper but very effective Iranian Y drones for a fraction of the cost AND with immediate delivery?

So what are we to make from the uncanny resemblance of the Russian between the Russian Geranium-2 drone vs the Iranian Shahed-136?

My advice: absolutely nothing.

Yes, they do look alike but, frankly, convergent evolution is very common in technology, especially in aerospace.  In this case, both the Geranium-2 and the Sahed-136 look alike, sound alike, and generally are hard to distinguish.  Can you tell a 152mm shell apart from a 155mm one?  What about two shells of the same caliber, but built by different manufacturers?

So what do we know for sure?  We know that Russia has dramatically increased her use of drones and that some really look Iranian.  But even Iranian-looking drones might be built in Russia (with or without a license).  Should an Iranian designed drone built in Russia (or a Russian designed drone built in Iran) be considered Iranian or Russian?

Last but not least – what difference does it make anyway?

We know that Iran is a very solid and trustworthy ally of Russia (I would argue by far the best Russia has right now).  I know for a fact that the behind the scenes ties between Russia and Iran are numerous and deep.  Of course, in the West Iran is almost as demonized as Russia, so for the Neocons to lump the two together makes for a good talking point.  But we should not declare that these are all “Neocon lies” just because the Neocons are using Russia to demonize Iran and Iran to demonize Russia.  If anything, I think that Iran very much deserves a public expression of gratitude and admiration by Russia.  Because even if the Iranians have not sold a single drone to Russia, they are clearly and openly supporting Russia in her desire to overcome the Great Satan and create a multipolar world.

Whatever may be the case, I think that this entire Iranian drone topic is a non-issue other than I very much welcome an increase in the effective use of UAV by Russia against NATO absolutely irrespective of where these UAVs have been built or who designed them.

Did I mention that the crazies in Kiev has declared that they have a “anti-UAV dome” over Kiev (the name must be an attempt to copy/brown-nose Israel)?  Here is how this all looks like:

1: the mystery UAV. 2: the Ukie anti-UAV “dome” in action. 3: the inevitable outcome

Finally, this begs the question “are the Russian lying about the Iranian drones”?

Frankly, I don’t know.  But here is what I do know:

In his recent press conference Putin declared: ” There is no need for massive strikes now. Other tasks are on the agenda because I think out of the 29 targets the Defence Ministry had planned to hit, only seven were not. But now they are dealing with them gradually. There is no need for massive strikes, at least for now. As for the future, we’ll see.

Which was immediately interpreted by the usual war-mongering 6th columnist and assorted (pseudo-) “friends of Russia” as a sign of weakness, irresolution and, of course, imminent defeat.

Now, Putin, besides being a former intelligence officer is also a jurist and he is very careful with words.  So let’s take the sentence “There is no need for massive strikes now“.  There are at least three very ambiguous words here: “need”, “massive” and “now”.  Let’s look at them one by one:

  • Need: means just what it says, that there is no *need* for X.  That does not mean that there is no “desire” or “rationale” or “advantage” in doing X.  Putin bashers “missed” that.
  • Massive: well, if 200 missiles is massive, would 180 be less than massive?  How about 150? 100?  Of course, the Putin bashers also “missed” that.
  • Now: did he mean “today” or “this picosecond” or maybe “this month”?  Nobody knows. And, yes, of course, the Putin bashers also “missed” that.

But the main thing which Putin bashers missed, or did not want to see, is that the missile strikes DID continue.  In fact, accordintg to “Ze” they have already destroyed at least 30% (which means that in reality the damage is much bigger!) of Ukrainian power generation capabilities and there are no signs that these strikes will stop anytime soon.

Besides, Putin also said “As for the future, we’ll see“.  When does “the future” begin?  Technically, as soon as these words were spoken!

So did Putin *lie*?  No, not technically, but he was definitely “cute with words” and that was good enough for the idiots in NATO to believe that the missile strikes were over.  They found out the next day that they were very mistaken, but by then it was too late.

Another example – here is what Peskov said about the Iranian drones: ““No, we have no such information. Russian hardware is being used. You know it well. It has Russian designations. All further questions can be addressed to the Defense Ministry“.  Wait, what?!  What “further questions”?  Also, you can apply a Russian “designation” to anything, even something procured abroad.  Peskov is also being “cute with words” here.

The bottom line is this: deception is a key instrument of war, but constant lies destroy your credibility.  Are the Russian capable of lying?  Absolutely, let’s not be naive.  But, when given the option, Russian politicians prefer to be ambiguous, “cute with words” or any other expression you like.  They try to lie less than NATO (which is solely and only about optics, PYSOPS, PR, propaganda, etc. etc. etc.) and they try to not be to crude about it.

So can we take Russian or Iranian denials to the bank?

I would highly advise against it.

Two: the NS1/NS2 sabotage rigmarole (aka MH17 revisited)

You got to give it to EU politicians: they are funny.  Unless you live under their yoke that it.  In this case, the Eurolemmings first declared that Russia would have zero access to investigation of the sabotage of NS1/NS2 (MH-17 anyone?) only to then declare that they will all investigate separately but not share results.  Especially Sweden which was clearly given the “cleanup job” by Uncle Shmuel.  As for the Germans, they really don’t fear ridicule: they announced that it was definitely sabotage, but nobody knows by whom.  Apparently, being Uncle Shmuel’s bitch is what is expected of the comprador leaders of occupied Germany…

Check out this footage of the damage for yourself:

You can also access the Rumble version by clicking here: https://rumble.com/v1okzp2-ns12-footage-of-damage.html.

Even with Biden’s direct admission on record, the Eurolemmings have absolutely NO IDEA who could possibly have sabotaged NS1/NS2.  At best, they will mention Russia as a possible culprit :-)

We can expect these ridiculous and spineless losers to go “full MH17” and use all the same bag of dirty tricks (beginning, of course, with the exclusion of Russia from the investigation because… … uh… … well, Russia is evil, you know?!)

Sure, the “winter is coming”, metaphorically and literally, but for the time being the folks in the West keep themselves entertained with the usual russophobic hatred:

In reality this image shows a Serbian bridge destroyed by NATO!

Then there is this masterpiece:

Which brings us right back to this during the NATO aggression against Libya:

 

 

I guess some things never change, including the Western political discourse…  That, and a very pathological obsession with sexual topics (the West is clearly the most sexually dysfunctional part of the planet right now).

Three: so where do we go from here?

First, there is going to be more of the same, that is that the West will continue to rely on terrorism as one of its main weapons against Russia.  Most of you must have heard about the massacre of Russian soldiers in training by Takfiri terrorists (and we all know who runs the Takfiri terrorists wordwide!) but you probably did not hear that the Belarussian security services have prevented a number of terrorist actions in Belarus (see machine translated article about this here).

And since there are always more potential targets than resources to guard them, we can, alas, safely assume that terrorist attacks in Russia will continue.  And no, Putin will not resurrect the Smersh (sorry nostalgic emo-Marxists!) and Russia will not turn into the USSR or WWII.  Not because Putin does not want that (and he does definitely NOT want that), but because the people of Russia don’t want that: Russia will remain a free and open society even if the price to pay for that are regular terror attacks.  Now, eventually and inevitably, the Russian society will change as the war against NATO will take many months, possibly years, and the entire Russian society will have to gradually switch over to a full “war mode” including not only the economy, but also counter-terrorism operations.

[Sidebar: this war has already profoundly changed Russia and, I would argue, for the better.  The 5th column is basically dead.  The Atlantic Integrationists either gone or in deep concealment.  The 6th column made the max of the so-called Russian “defeats” and “imminent collapse” but right now only a really terminally dumb person can still fail to “smell the coffee” and wake up to reality.  Scores of “Russian” liberals (who were very much represented in the media, entertainment, music, arts, etc.) have either emigrated (usually to Israel, Poland, the UK or one of the three Baltic statelets) or gone into a deep depression.  The Russian legislature is passing law after law to make it harder to deliberately spread NATO PSYOPs and now rather than facing the support and admiration of “liberals” in Russia and abroad, doing so exposes you to fines and even incarceration.  What used to be a fun lifestyle for the “Russian” liberals is gradually turning into a nightmare.  The bottom line is this: wars polarize and that polarization makes it much easier to get a grasp of “who is really who”.  Even a hardcore 6thy columnist like Strelkov/Girkin eventually had to stop flipping is lips and volunteered to join the Russian forces in combat.  Whatever his real motives, I will say that is an honorable and courageous action which not 5th columnist or liberal has had the courage to imitate – at least so far and to my knowledge.  I am pretty sure that the Russia which will emerge (victorious, of course) from this war will be a very different Russia from the Russia which fought it until now.  In a terrible way this war might well be salvific for the peoples of Russia: it is, after all, a war for the very survival of the Russian civilizational realm!]

There are also a lot of rumors and “things brewing” which we should prepare for.  I will just bullet point a few of them here:

  • Right now large NATO forces are assembling in several locations to continue the current “lives for optics” operation in which the Ukrainians exchange lives en masse for the pleasure of twitting about “strategic advances” while gaining a few square kilometers here and there.
  • Russian sources are claiming that some kind of unconventional attack is being prepared against Kherson and the ZNPP.
  • Russian sources are also claiming that NATO is concentrating artillery/missile forces for massive (?) strikes against the city of Kherson.
  • For these reasons, the authorities in Kherson have made it possible for the civilians who want to leave to do so and temporarily relocate to a safer location.  That does, of course, NOT mean that the Russians plan to withdraw from Kherson, if only because under Russian law it is now Russian territory.
  • Russian missile strikes are continuing, mostly against power plants and command posts.  Since “Ze” has made the posting of videos of Russian attacks illegal, only the attacks on big cities/towns are featured in the social media.  The Russian attacks on military command centers are almost never recorded or shown.
  • The Russians are also doing “something” to Starlink and Musk (whose “proud resistance” to the Pentagon lasted less than 24 hours!) even claimed that the Russians might take the entire system down.  Right now Russian interference seems to be centered around the areas near the line of contact, but that could change anytime the Russian GS decides that the time has come.  If things get even worse, western UAV and AWACS will experience “technical problems” next.
  • In what I call “Zone B” (i.e. the free world) the US is losing one ally after another, the latest one to defect to the Russian side is, of all countries, Saudi Arabia which first told Biden to get lost over OPEC+ and which now wants to join the BRICS!  Can’t say I am a big fan of the KSA, but I am all for it joining the BRICS if that is what they want.

Last but not least, is the “something’s up” feeling,

As of today, the Russians and Belorussians have created a joint force which is of great concern the the folks in Kiev and Lvov.  This does not mean that Belarusian units (or individual soldiers) are about to cross the border and attack but, just as with the initial feint around Kiev, this creates a major headache for NATO planners who cannot allocate all their resources towards the lines of contact in the eastern Ukraine.  And, if and when needed, this force (whose size is unclear, but appears to be significant) could, of course, be used, especially if the Hyena of Europe decides to bite off a piece of Banderastan (or Belarus!).  There is overwhelming evidence that Russia is also preparing a large force for some kind of operation, but I cannot even guess where this force(s) might be used or how.

Conclusion: a planet divided for the foreseeable future

What we are seeing is the creation of two parts of our planet: the AngloZionist Hegemony (in which only the USA and Israel have agency, the rest are colonies, occupied countries, volunteer slaves, etc.) and the Multipolar Free World.  While the two blocks are not technically at war with each other, in reality they already very much are.  Russia and Iran are bearing most of the military burden while other free countries quietly try to either stay out and keep a low profile or, even more quietly, assist China and rest of the Multipolar Free World to prevail economically.  Of course, the AngloZionist Hegemony is using every means it has to subvert not only Russia, but also China, Iran and any other country daring to declare even a modicum of sovereignty.

The eventual and inevitable outcome of this confrontation is not in doubt, at least not to those who are aware of reality.  It is not the outcome which I fear (in fact I await it with great anticipation!) but the potentially enormous costs of defeating the West’s last Crusade (last time Russia lost 27 million people, most of them innocent civilians, and that did not even do the full job – hence today’s war).  I will never stop repeating that while most of the US and NATO forces are a sad joke, the US nuclear triad and the USN’s submarine force are both still world class and extremely dangerous and capable (and US SSNs come with not only anti-submarine and anti-surface capabilities, but also with land-attack missiles).

This is why it is absolutely crucial for Russia to turn up the pain dial steadily but SLOWLY.

Those dimwits who constantly advocate for “firm Russian actions” and simply “hit them hard!” are clueless civilians from countries who never won a real war adn who have no idea whatsoever about modern warfare or about the immense risks their warmongering hysterics create for our entire planet.  I can sincerely say that I thank God that Putin is a very careful type who fully understands that there are no “quickfix solutions” to denazifying and demilitarizing the AngloZionist Hegemony.

And yes, Russia will continue to unilaterally and gradually rotating up the pain dial, and Russia will do so without feeling the need to seek approval from those who have never won a war but who believe that wars are won by “showing toughness”.

Andrei

The Essential Saker IV: Messianic Narcissism's Agony by a Thousand Cuts
The Essential Saker III: Chronicling The Tragedy, Farce And Collapse of the Empire in the Era of Mr MAGA