I have to begin with an admission here: while hurricane Ian was a total disaster for most of Florida, hurricane Nicole came right on time to spare me from having to react to the mass idiocy surrounding the announced withdrawal of the Russian army from Kherson. In purely military terms, this was a no brainer and if you have not yet listened to Andrei Martyanov and Brian Berletic discussing this matter with Gonzalo Lira, please click here to listen to their conversation.
Also, please listen to Gonzalo Lira’s comments here (he makes perfectly good sense).
Big Serge also posted a good discussion here: https://bigserge.substack.com/p/surovkins-difficult-choice
Next, I want to offer a tentative nomenkulature of the folks I will be referring to. They are not a single, monolithic group, but rather a type of “PYSOP choir” with different voices. Here is how I see them:
- Paid for trolls and other US PSYOP talking point pushers: they are the real deal, folks who do that for a living. Let’s call them the “pros“. Some of them are AIs.
- People who, for whatever reason, hate Putin, Russia or both. For them, literally *any* event, decision, statement is immediately grabbed and used to “prove” that Putin is weak and indecisive, Russia is losing the war (and has been losing since day 1 and sooner rather than later the Almighty West will defeat Russia. Let’s call these the haters.
- Then there are those who are in purely for the money. They need to announce all sorts of major defeats, catastrophes, hidden conspiracies, etc. because that generates traffic and money. Let’s call these folks the clickbaiters.
- Next come the folks who do not have access to the information Putin, the Kremlin and the Russian general staff has, but who feel sufficiently informed (and educated) to explain to the world what the Russians should be doing instead of what they are actually doing. I call them the geniuses.
- Then they are those who, trained by Hollywood and Tom Clancy, simply *know* that the West is the shining and most advanced civilization in history and everything it produces, be a people or technology, is just so superior to anybody else’s that an eventual victory of the West against any foe or even coalition of foes is inevitable. I think we can call them racists (as in racial supremacy).
- Next we have those who really are trying to understand what is going on but simply lack the education/training/expertise to understand. These are the folks who recently smoothly transitioned from being armchair virologists/microbiologists/epidemiologists to armchair generals and marshals. These folks have an opinion on everything, and having that opinion on everything give them this warm feeling of being the real experts. So let’s call them that, the experts.
- Last, but not least, we have to also mention people with no applicable education/training and who are too stupid to realize that they are stupid. We can call them the imbeciles.
Of course, as soon as Surovikin announced that Russia will move her defenses in Kherson to the right bank and withdraw from the city all these folks instantly joined forces into one vociferous “PSYOPs choir” and flooded the Internet with their inanities (including our comments section, but most got intercepted).
Frankly, I have no desire or energy to debunk the idiocies this “PSYOPs choir” solemnly proclaims, but I do want to mention two things which might have been missed.
First, had the Russians NOT moved out of Kherson and had NATO blow up the Kahovka dam and flooded the city, the result would look something like this (I got that image from Andrei Martyanov’s blog):
The Russians have not announced how many soldiers they had in Kherson, but the Ukronazis said 20’000. Okay, let’s run with that and assume that 20’000 soldiers would cut off from the rest of the Russian forces and only resupplied with great difficulty. Next, let’s assume that the (much larger) NATO force would have moved into the city. Can you imagine the optics? Hundreds of Russian POWs, many more dead, KIA, MIA and, finally, the “proof” that Russia is (and always was!) losing.
I can absolutely guarantee you that pros, haters, clickbaiters, geniuses, racists, experts and imbeciles would all join forces in a loud “musical forte” and scream from the top of their lungs that “aha! see! we were right all along!!!“.
The second thing I need to address is what I believe is an analytical mistake by Bernhard on Moon of Alabama. He wrote that “This move is operationally sound” and yet he added “Strategically the move is bad“. We could wonder how a move could be operationally sound but strategically bad, but let’s not even go there. Bernhard’s argument is that “It closes for now the possibility of moving into Nikolaev (Mykolaiv) and further towards Odessa“. The problem here is that when we look at a map of the region we realize something very important: there are plenty of streams and rivers which flow north to south and which flow into the Black Sea. See here:
So any move along the coastline would imply having to get across quite a few rivers. Is this possible? Yes, absolutely. But is that the best option? I am not so sure at all. I will simply say that this is the option the Ukronazis and NATO have been preparing for.
Another option might be to move not West but North and then turn West to basically take all the NATO defenses around the Black Sea coastline from behind. Did I mention that there is now a joint Russian-Belarussian force deployed in Belarus which seems to worry NATO a lot and which could be used to pin down NATO forces near and north of Kiev?
Is that what the Russians are planning? I don’t know. All I know is that it is wrong to assume that the only way to get to Odessa is by fighting along the coastline.
Last, but not least, there is the (inevitable) rumor of a deal having been made between Putin and… … huh… well… somebody in the West (who? Brandon? Sunak? Macron?). Now that is pure, unadulterated bullshit which only true doubleplusgoodshiteaters could swallow (though clickbaiters will use it to get their clicks and visibility!). Russia and the West have been locked into an existential war for survival since AT LEAST 2013 and we are very close to a possible nuclear war, but some folks still think that Putin works for the US, the WEF, Klaus Schwab, Bibi Netanuyahu. etc. etc. etc. My position on that is simple: anybody seriously believing this crap is not worth talking to, you would have better success arguing with a door knob. I sure won’t bother with them.
I would also note that IF a real behind-the-scenes deal was made, the chances of Putin finalizing that deal with Western leaders at the G20 would be a perfect opportunity to finalize a deal. Yet, in reality, Putin is not even going to attend. Reach your own conclusions.
It is particularly comical, in a sad way, to hear US “experts” offering their precious insights and advice as to what the Russians should do next. Considering that the US never won a real war since WWII, while the Russian General Staff is older than the USA as a nation, only a crass ignorance of history could embolden these hyper-losers to give advice to the Russian hyper-winners, if you wish :-)
And while Russia did lose quite a few battles and even campaigns in her history, at the end she always defeated all her enemies. Yet the Anglos are still out there preaching to Russia.
Speaking of Anglos, I heard a funny factoid the other day: the entire British military could fit inside the Luzhniki stadium in Moscow. Puny Britain indeed…
Anyways, these are the folks who have lost control of their empire and who are now losing control of their own country but, rather than try to fix their own ugly mess, they are still out there preaching to the Kremlin how to fight a war.
Truly, sic transit gloria mundi…
Conclusion: is the Kherson withdrawal some kind of disaster?
Not in the least. It was a planned moved and it was well executed. Please keep in mind that the issue of Kherson was always known to the Kremlin, yet they did allow the referendums to go ahead and now Kherson is legally part of Russia. So while the Russians did withdraw (most) of their forces from the right bank of the river, that in no way changes the legal status of the city or its people. There is a French saying which goes “you have to give time to time” and this is what I suggest. Let’s see what happens to Kherson and the rest of the theater of operations in the next 2-3 months. And, maybe, in hindsight it will all become clear.
Still, it is undeniable that the Russian social media literally exploded with fear, uncertainty and doubts (FUD) and there is now a growing segment of the population which a) does not understand what is going on b) is listening to all the FUD on the Russian Internet and c) which still has not understood the simple fact that Russia is at war. A war every bit as real, and crucial, as WWI or WWII were. However, the longer this war lasts, the more polarized the Russian society becomes and, as I have mentioned it in the past, I welcome this polarization because it shows the real “who’s with whom” here. And there will be hell to pay down the road for folks like, say, Dugin, who are now committing actions which would have them shot for treason during WWII. Well, at least now I hope that the “Dugin is Putin’s advisor” canard has been finally buried. And NOW you know why I never posted a single article by Dugin or even mentioned him. I saw him for the fake he is a long long time ago.
So for the time being, let’s just ignore the usual choir of pros, haters, clickbaiters, geniuses, racists, experts and imbeciles and let them enjoy their 5 mins of fame before their entire mental edifice comes tumbling down, destroyed by reality and facts on the ground.
I think I understand the withdrawal: those 20k troops, most top of the line in quality, could be used far better in the offensives Surovikin will soon be unleashing north and east of Kherson. But there’s something I still don’t understand: if the Russians didn’t take the part of Kherson west of the river early in the war in order to open the way to Odessa, why did they take it? My previous view was that Russia intended to advance to Odessa but severely misjudged the numbers of troops they would need, which is why they couldn’t even attack Nikolaev, and why retreat from the west side of the river was reluctantly decided. But if you are right, it was never really their intention to advance from their position west of the river. Which raises the question why they went there in the first place?
A military plan is something which is CONSTANTLY updated, not just because of “misjudgement” but because warfare is dialectical: you constantly probe, adjust, and generally try to keep as flexible a posture as possible. The actual reasons why the Russians did move into Kherson are known to very few people, so all we can do is to speculate.
The need for flexibility seems right on the money. E.g. maybe Russia didn’t pull out of Kherson when they pulled out of Kiev and other areas back in April because there was more of a case for leaving their options open in the south, as there also was with Kharkov oblast. We don’t know the plan, not least Putin’s political plan which may have preempted military considerations on more than one occasion (e.g. reverses in the war, like withdrawals from conquered territory that became unavoidable when partial mobilisation was delayed till September, may have played not only to Russia’s economic advantage but to its political advantage as well, in its dealings with the West and the non-West alike).
I think you are dead right that the withdrawal from Kherson will not loom large in the greater scheme of the war and may even be vindicated when those 20k troops make critical contributions to future offensives, esp. if the 40k the Ukrainians can now redeploy are wasted, be it as meat for the grinder or for boiling in the cauldrons that Russia’s 380k will soon be able to create.
Control of Kherson was needed until the voting to join Russia was complete now Kherson area is Russia. The Dnipro is a major transport route as well as the bridges which Russia needed to take control of initially to secure the lower Donbas, apparently that isn’t needed for now and we’ll see what the future holds for this area.
Appreciate these insightful comments.
The “dialectic” of war –“flexibility” — is a great concept. Which I write about here: https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/kherson-the-defeat-that-wasnt
The only reason to maintain forces in Kherson would be to mount an offensive towards Nikolaev. However, Kherson is a logistical nightmare and vulnerable to flooding, which the UAF could carry out since they have no regard for human life. Poorly understood is that the Russians are fighting a moral war based on principles. They will try to preserve life and the infrastructure that sustains it, for this is the basis of a new polity in future.. They are not fighting for territory and their military do not care as much about either propaganda or the politics that propaganda generates. Kherson was in no way a defeat. It just wasn’t that important. With withdrawal, the Russians firmed up their frontline and made progress elsewhere. It’s victories go unnoticed, of course. Propaganda is not dialectical: it is a rant.
Now, the Russians will likely leave Nikolaev and Odessa for the time being and strike north and west, and possible south from Belarus.These strikes will isolate Nikolaev and Odessa. The Russians learned (dialectically) from Mariupol. Rebuilding a city is costly.
Rebuilding a city is cheap, rebuilding a human life is costly!
I think this era of instant mass communication has vastly increased the role of propaganda in war. A combatant nation with a low (vulnerable) FUD rating has to accept that the propaganda front will be a tough battle.
As for your question, Wayne, even knowing nothing about war, I understand that any multi player project or game is not linear! You try different approaches to attain your goals. Some work better than others, some fail, then you reassess and take the best action available. For example, among other reasons they could have taken Kherson to use it as a possible route to Odessa, while at the same time preparing one or two other routes. Kherson turns out not to be optimal, so they change plans. Quite simple. So you can imagine that in such a complex multi player game such as war, there will be hundreds of ebbs and flows, huh.
Anyway, I think that for most of us, including me, we are better off not following the day to day and instead praying to God to forgive us our sins.
It is possible that the simplest hypothesis is correct: They entered Kherson because when they arrived in front of the city, there was no one to prevent them from entering it.
Removed. This is your opinion below – not facts. Mod.
The Kherson dilemma was created by the unforeseen cutting of logistical communications lines by destruction of the bridges across the Dnepr, otherwise Russia likely could have fortified its bridgehead sufficiently and continued sending Ukr attackers to Valhalla.
Two more considerations:
 Although time may be on Russia’s side, enough time (2 years) would also give nato the opportunity to crank up its military industrial output to resupply Ukraine to make any relatively low intensity warfare last even longer. So timing is not a one-dimensional aspect.
 The continual resupply from nato has not been blocked to the point that Ukraine has exhausted its possibilities, although such exhaustion may happen at some point in the future even without blocking it. All the expert commentators I’ve heard so far led me to believe Russia would have been more successful at interdicting Western resupply efforts
All the expert commentators
Whom I you referring to?
Ritter, Berletic, MacGregor, Alex&Alex (Duran), etc
The only real expert in this list is MacGregor. I don’t know about Berletic.
Alex Mercouris at the Duran is the last person I would personally recommend as an ëxpert””, Webej.
I certainly agree with Berletic and MacGregor.
Alex Mercouris is an ex lawyer. He has reinvented himself as some sort of “”expert”” by reading certain other opinions and putting them together. I suspect however, he has some sort of Patron of the pro American pro Trump lobby to whom he caters.
He has a habit of seeming to be saying the right things, but slipping the knife in with his choice of words.
As a good example, I went to check on them just now, to find AM stating that Putin is certainly not a war time leader, and that he currently doesnt want to face the fact that he is at war.
To anyone who has studied Putin, this last is too stupid and insane to be remotely acceptable.
AM in fact knows nothing of Putin, has clearly never read a thing that is relevant nor sat down and listened extensively to what Putin has said in the past.
I’ve given up listen to him these days – it’s like hearing a writer for the UK rag Daily Mail at work!!
I agree. When I heard him say that about Putin I closed the link, utter garbage. They seem to be going ape shit about Kherson, all you have to do it look at the terrain, the logistics problems and see it was the most sensible option. The Russians will sort the problem out in their own time at a later date. The Ukies have made themselves sitting ducks.
Mercouris is good for alternative view collation and for a paleo conservative anti globalist take on Russian-European affairs, which he knows a lot about but he’s much more anti-worker than anti-woke. If the Democratic party–who folks like Mercouris consistently mistakenly conflate with “the left” entirely disappeared and the EU disbanded…you would very quickly see Mercouris and his ilk turn all of their critiques AGAINST Chinese “socialism.”
Western supplies are laid on a platter at Russia’s feet…..it does come at cost, but when Russia’s entire existence is at stake, it’s a bearable cost…..30 odd million dead last time around. Russia is now fighting NATO in the Ukraine. There is no way in hell the west can ramp up weapons production, fuel, tooling, milling, the man power, machinists millwrights, as Andrei M would say….”real world economy stuff”
I used to think a quick short operation in Ukraine was to Russia’s advantage, while bogging Russia down into a long conflict was NATO’s plan. However, just as the sanctions boomeranged back, I now think a long conflict in the Ukraine is bleeding the West, and the longer it goes on the faster a multipolar dedollarised world will emerge.
Just reading on Moon of Alabama about FTX, and the shady financial shell-game between the Democrats and Ukraine. When the end comes, it comes suddenly.
It’s going to be pretty difficult for Europe to “crank up its military industrial output” – industrial capacity is geared up only for limited production of arms just now – even buying the land for manufacturing facilities will take years, putting up buildings more years and recruiting and training staff even more years. And that is on much reduced energy supplies. Even the US is currently running out of capability to produce enough shells to supply the Ukraine. And that also supposes they have the money and will to do so. If most EU manufacturing moves to China, as some are threatening, then it’s all over.
Rebuild industrial capacity is not something you can do at wish.
Otherwise every country in the world would have industrial capacity.
USA is not able to build it since 20% of their PIB is finance sector. Can you reuse a bank mortgage expert into a engineer? Don’t think so
Besides it, you can expect big chunks of money disappearing in the form of dividends and buy bucks.
Europe is not so financially doomed, but think that it can build up their industry is also sci fic
I know well, I am Western European and I have live in several countries here as a engineer.
European societies does not have enough resources for this task, neither natural resources neither the will neither the engineering manpower.
Europe can buy resources from Canada or Chile, gas from Qatar. But this has a price, it it’s far more expensive due to the transportation and intermediaries.
If stuff is more expensive, industry produces become more expensive, therefore they are a bigger burden for the country resources
Now take a look at Russian resources, virtually unlimited. They own 13% of the World natural resources, they are the third country in number of engineers (and the fourth is Iran, a close ally).
Russia has far more chances to build up their industry than NATO.
And the overall battle is much more expensive for NATO, since their logistic to the battle are tremendously difficult, and part of the valuable equipment is destroy before arriving or in suicidal attacks
The war has been a full mistake from the beginning, and it was based in the assumption by neocons that Russia would collapse politically
Andrei: My own learned opinion on this supposed “debacle” — like the Kharkov area withdrawal before it — is: All I know is I don’t know.
While I was saddened by the news, the logistics for the decision were certainly sound. And as you suggest, “It ain’t over till the fat lady sings!”
So once again, harboring the highest hopes and best wishes for the Russian SMO, I’ll simply reserve judgment.
There’s a saying in French, when you see the whites of their eyes, raise the white flag.
The entire Western frenzied concubine would just love to see Putin/Russia take liberties with civilian lives or feed their troops into a meat grinder as the Commanders of NATO forces are inclined to do.
The faux Russians demand results, offensives, but with zero casualties. A win/win stance for them, they get to have their moan. These people I’d round up and parachute into the west bank of Kherson. . . promising them air support if they survive the first volley or flash flood.
Great accomplishment to evacuate troops and materials in such a timely organised manner, and which, when the history books are written, will come to be recognised a brilliant tactical manoeuvre, proving pivotal to the resulting victory.
Speaking of psy-ops, headlines in US newspapers (Boston Globe, NYT) are trumpeting “Major Setbacks for Russia/Putin” in the Kherson pullback.
Either those editors and headline writers haven’t take a good look at a detailed map of the region or they are deliberately mainlining news-coke into their their readers.
Guys, what is happening in Dvorichna? I’ve made a habit to look at a map of positions in Ukraine every evening, and since a few days ago I started thinking I’m “seeing things” on the far east of the frontline (let’s say Kupiansk axis). So I’ve been paying extra attention to it and then today BAM! Russian line moved 20km to the West.
What is happening? Why isn’t anyone mentioning this? Is Gonzalo talking about this but I’m just not listening? Did this happen a month ago and it just took LiveUAMap a month to update itself? Does anybody have more idea on this?
I think what upset people the most were the rumours of a “deal”, rather than the military retreat at Kherson per se.
For this reason, I wonder if those rumours were deliberately released.
From hustlers, whores and pimps, just the obvious, what did you expect?
Western media like their respective economies are collapsing, the failure accelerating due to the SMO.
The Russian Kherson feint has emboldened the west. Expect more self destructive actions, simply their ignorant nature.
On the other hand I feel like a student of military history in the making, have some idea what the plan is, Putin has explained it in detail. The execution of this war is a bloody masterpiece.
I read the piece attributed to Dugin, but didn’t see how it was treasonous. Although the translation was less then crystal clear it read to me more like a very worried patriot. Having said that I know next to nothing about him.
Hi Clifton, would you pass on the link to hear dugin’s words? I’d like to get my own take on that.
I agree so far with what he exposed in his books. Very much in line with rené Guénon + continental patriotism.
Andrei, I really would like to understand your seemingly “high contempt” about him.
The link to the piece is in the second to last paragraph of Andrei’s article where he mentions Dugin. It’s not clear to me that Dugin has admitted saying this.
One thing I see by delaying the pullout of Kherson is Russia got to destroy a LOT of western gear and troops. Only when the Russian guys might get cut off was it time to leave. Plus, as mentioned, there’s a lot of guys like the paratroopers who can zoom up north and join attacks there while the western troops and hardware is all down south.
Think of playing tennis, you get the other player into one corner then hit the ball to the other corner. Repeat as needed.
But if the Russians didn’t take the part of Kherson west of the river early in the war in order to open the way to Odessa, why did they take it?
It was done to divide the Ukrainian forces into 3. Kiev, Donbass, and Kherson.
Although time may be on Russia’s side, 2 years would give nato the opportunity to crank up its military industrial output to resupply Ukraine to make a relatively low intensity warfare last even longer.
NATO has run out of old USSR military equipment from former Warszawa pact Nations, and is becoming more and more unwilling to re-supply Ukraine with “Modern” Western equipment. As things stand in the west, it will not take 2 winters before the Western population demand an end to the war in Ukraine.
In that time period, the US and Germany will not be able to resupply both its NATO allies and Ukraine.
Great accomplishment to evacuate troops and materials in such a timely organized manner, and which, when the history books are written, will come to be recognized a brilliant tactical maneuver, proving pivotal to the resulting victory.
I fully agree.
Toad the Old wrote:
The Russian Kherson feint has emboldened the west. Expect more self-destructive actions.
I believe that the West have realized that General Winter and the Russian mobilized troops is now a reality, and is trying to reach a settlement with Russia, without NATO losing Face at home.
Jerry Durand wrote:
There’s a lot of guys like the paratroopers who can zoom up north and attacks there while the western troops and hardware is all down south.
Yes, but you forget that Russia already has a large Troop deployment on the border In Belarus, less than 100Km north of Kiev
I agree with you about “the West trying to reach a settlement with Russia..” because the U.S got the E.U, thé U.K and Switzerland, all smooshed in its pocket, with a special mention for Germany and France.
U.S succeeded so far at separating the European countries from doing business with Russia. The “great reset” will probably happen in the west.
Yet, that settlement of course doesn’t mean U.S learnt its lesson and will back off. It will keep feeding weapons, especially to all the “inter-mares” countries, from baltique to Black Sea.
Then, many options to harass Russia. All to the detriment of European countries and many profits still for Big U.S business. Terror works, especially when it is all pervasive, as in the inverted totalitarian regime of the west.
Evil has it easy.
Miracles happen all the time, especially if each of us does the “home work”, just as “Quetzalcoatl” refers to, in a previous comment about the correspondence between “micro” and “macrocosme”. We need to be quite attentive at our local level, our feelings and relationships.
May we feel our pain and heal.
May we trust in love.
Quite agree with all your comments. In fact as the situation is now, Ukies have made themselves sitting ducks. Russia will soldier on regardless and make their way to Odessa, then over to Tansnistria and announce an exclusion zone in the Black Sea.
Then they’ll have to finish off the job by going north to set up an exclusion between Russia and what’s left of Ukraine. The best thing is that Ukraine will be on life support from the EU for decades to come.
The only sort of war NATO can fight is flying over innocent countries and carpet bombing them, then fly off like the cowards they really are.
I don’t think people have grasped the actual size of the Dnipro River:
“The largest river in Ukraine and the third largest in Europe (after the Volga River and the Danube River). The #Dnipro Basin covers 504,000 sq km, of which 289,000 sq km are within Ukraine (48 percent of its area). The basin occupies 42 percent of the territory of the Ukrainian state and 36 percent of Ukrainian ethnic territory.
The Dnipro River flows south through the center of Ukraine and bisects its natural zones—forest, forest-steppe, and steppe—interconnecting them and connecting them with the Black Sea. Of the long-settled principal areas of Ukraine, only Galicia, western Volhynia, and Transcarpathia lie beyond the basin of the Dnipro. Travel is easy from the Dnipro Basin to basins northwest of it —the Vistula River, the Neman River, and the Daugava River—but difficult to other basins, such as the basins of the Dnister River, the Boh River, the Volga River, and the Don River. Easy communications between the Dnipro River, the Prypiat River, and the Buh River by means of the Vistula facilitated the expansion of Poland into Ukraine. The Dnipro’s role as a unifying force and gateway to the sea was, however, weakened by a 70 km stretch of rapids in the steppe belt. In spite of this obstacle, the Dnipro was the main axis of the first Ukrainian state—Kyivan Rus’. The nucleus of a second state—the Zaporozhian Sich—arose on the Dnipro. The river is the artery of Ukraine, its main highway, and its source of hydroelectric power.”
Scroll down to the photo of:
Monastery Island and Merefa-Kherson bridge over the Dnieper River in Dnipro
Why did they take it?????? Because the Ukies rolled out and left without a fight. Opportunity! Even the Russians were surprised …..what I find incredulous……the short memory span some humans possess. They didn’t have to fight for it and expended no treasure to get it. Remember, the SMO was to clear out the LDNR. That Russia has a nice natural defensible border now is a win.
The flexibility of operation this withdrawal allows for the Russian Army to perform its overall work is more than encouraging for any time of year. Yes there was a chance of flooding the area by the opposition forces and still is but the main objectives of Russia are secure. My concern being the same as the Russians leaders and planners apparently have been achieved.
Concerning Alexander Dugin, I am subscribed to a Telegram channel Alexander Dugin | Z with 15K subscribers, which has a statement from Prof. Dugin denying what euroweeklynews wrote. ” … It is clear that no one will believe it. But to be sure: no one has turned their back on Putin, I and all Russian patriots support him unconditionally … “.
I certainly did not believe it. It would have been incongruous. I have read a number of his books and find them to be quite valuable for the most part.
Obviously another psyop or whatever one calls it.
Agree, It doesn’t sound like Dugin.
Anyway, Dugin is brilliant enough to realize that philosophers do not advise the advisors of the head of state and the successors of Kutozov and Zhukov and people like Kadyrov and the musician (Wagner) on military matters. They carry the responsibility of matters of state. He writes “Grief over the loss of Kherson is one thing; attitude toward the Commander-in-Chief is another”. It’s not like some other countries where lobbyists and incompetents are in a position to advise incompetents and dotards, while the right people like Macgregor are ignored. And it’s certainly not like Ukraine where the orders and the money come from thousands of kilometers away to the detriment of the country.
Dugin isn’t considered to be mainstream in Russia, there is something polemical at times, but he is an idea man and has done a lot of homework and I would think he has far more original things to say than many a doctrinaire intellectual or blabbermouth in the West.
I personally think that Andrei’s judgement of Dugin’s comments can only be fully understood and properly absorbed by another Russian citizen and not by an “outsider” such as an American like myself or any other foreigner. One thing is to read articles and follow a Telegram channel of a certain political figure and another is to have first hand experience by actually having lived in Russia or being a Russian citizen. Andrei might for example be able to partially but not fully grasp the treasonous words of an American politician in a time of war while I would immediately be able to pass the most severe of judgements because as an American I would be instinctually receptive and attuned to such an act. The other thing that I personally take into consideration which I know very little of is the historical and cultural customs of Russians as opposed to other nations in times of war. In America during times of war there is never a unified, cohesive message or attitude because all of our foreign wars are immoral and based on deception where as in Russia they only go to war as a last resort when all other peaceful options have been exhausted. In a morally justified conflict like Russia’s SMO, mistakes will be made, difficult decisions are carried out. I think its important for the talking heads in Russia to remain calm and not to act overly rambunctious or judgemental towards the leadership on the ground or at home specially now that Russia is simultaneously taking on over 30 NATO nations on the battlefield in Ukraine.
“I think its important for the talking heads in Russia to remain calm”. I agree, especially in this time of crisis. This should apply to Alexander Dugin. This is a very Western thing, communicating with a megaphone. There should be more restraint. The talking should be left to the leaders and they are doing a very good job of it.
Nikolaj Berdjaev in “Das Schicksal Russlands” writes that the Russian people, the narod, while resourceful is passive and that it wants nothing more than a strong leader. Of course this is no longer the age of Peter the Great or Väterchen Stalin. And there have always been dissenters and strange ones like the Old Believers or Rasputin.
Unity in the US is achieved through conformity and social pressure. The direction that is taken is haphazard and at present is quite wrong politically, socially, culturally etc. It spills over into Europe. It has done especially so in P + 3B. What will happen when Ukraine becomes a member of the EU? It is a good thing that Russia keeps its distance.
If anyone is interested, Dugin’s “The Fourth Political Theory” is I think his main book and it is relatively non-controversial as is his work on Martin Heidegger.
I’m so glad to hear from you, Andrei! Thank goodness you weathered the latest storm okay! (I must remember to thank God for this.) Thank you for this analysis. Just this morning I was talking to a neighbor, who like most Japanese has next to no knowledge about Russia but seems to be open to what my husband and I are saying, which is Russia is culturally similar to Japan and would be compatible if only that were allowed, but I had to tell him that I had not heard a decent analysis of the latest news (which has been presented in every bit as ridiculous way as before–I won’t bore you).
I read an analysis yesterday that Cargill was involved, owning all of Odessa’s port, and had put pressure on Brandon’s gang to negotiate in earnest with Russia. I’ve had the vague sensation that Zelenskyy is in the process of getting himself thrown under the bus, so I gave that some credence. I’ll be looking forward to seeing what Lira, Martyanov, Berletic and Big Serge have to say when I get done with some work here.
Patricia I believe what Black Rock, Cargill, Blackstone or any other corporation from “Clown World” think they “own” in Ukraine is irrelevant. Ownership will be decided by Russia.
It will be fun watching them freak out and try all sorts of antics while being shown to the door.
Cargill is Inc. in Wilmington, Delaware and home to some influential people, Brandon’s gang notwithstanding. Can’t imagine the legal entanglement for doing international business in a 404 country, with resultant scrutiny of its ownership. Or become subject to a “hostile takeover” of sorts and muddy-up the waters there even more.
Strategy is about the optimal allocation of finite/limited resources. The folks who make these decisions make them given the best info/intel and plans they have at any given moment. Sometimes things pan out, sometimes not. If not, you course-correct and drive on. I’d like to think of myself as neither a “Genius” or “Expert” or “Imbecile” in the useful taxonomy at the top of this article, but that said, IMHO, just looking at a map and understanding some basics about what happens to a goodly number of crack troops when dams and bridges are blown and they have their backs to a wide river with very difficult resupply, it seems kind of obvious what needs to be done – in the context of the long game.
At the end of the day, it’s going to be about who has more staying power, and that’s not necessarily about money and munitions. If the threat is perceived as truly existential, there won’t be backing down.
I think this conflict continues for a very long time, in some fashion or another (overt, clandestine, covert). It already has been, since at least the 1940s (and some would argue for far longer). Geography, the logistics issue, and will/belief favours RF. But the Straussian neocons and their disciples/allies are very wealthy and very powerful. They believe “Zbig’s” Grand Chessboard stuff at some deep level, I’m not really sure why. So they will not stop. This is a multi-generational, multi-decade/century project for some of these “crazies in the basement”. Except they are not in the basement, they are in the White House and, indeed, all over the world.
[Separately, for what its worth, the US did have a “diagnostic lab” in Kherson, per it’s own website: https://ua.usembassy.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/151/Kherson-DL-Fact-Sheet-Eng.pdf // Donor was DOD (why not CDC? or some non-military entity? I guess the answer would be this was Tech Assist. under one or more of DTRA’s programs – so for defense, or to “counter WMD and emerging threats”, as the DTRA’s mission statement avers). Of course, with dual-use technologies, it’s so easy to have offensive programs/research be conducted in parallel with defensive research/programs. “Below the waterline” stuff, as it were, covered by “above the waterline” stuff. Even a “nested SAP” – an SAP within another (waived, unacknowledged) SAP.]
I wanted to back-up the ‘listing’ that Saker provided with an example of some unfortunate consequences:
There is a site called Ars Technica, which I read for their excellent Rocket Report. I knew from past perusing of the site that it was radically anti-Russian, but I stuck to my narrow wedge of interest.
Today, a new article was re-published on the site, originating from Wired.com:
“Dark ships” emerge from the shadow of the Nord Stream pipeline mystery – Satellite monitors found 2 vessels with their trackers turned off in area of explosions.
The article is pretty good, with the exception of one bow to the West’s propaganda-line in passing:
“Multiple countries investigating the incident believe the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were rocked by a series of explosions, with many suspicions directed at Russia as its full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues. (Russia has denied its involvement.)”
The surprise was when I started reading the comments to the article. Virtually every commenter came up with one-or-another version of “Russia did it” (to itself) despite the logical inconsistency of that argument. Getting that straight in my face was quite shocking, coming from a site respected for its high-quality commentary. Scary…
People who have drunk the propaganda Kool-Aid will always support the narrative – even when it is clearly illogical. They wilfully avoid critical analysis of it so that they can avoid ‘losing face’ for past support of such craziness.
“These are the folks who recently smoothly transitioned from being armchair virologists/microbiologists/epidemiologists to armchair generals and marshals.”
Don’t forget, we had previously been climatologists/environmentalists.
When you know the virologists and epidemiologists are lying to you (or to themselves), you must use deduction based on your broader experience and knowledge to find the truth.
I have studied plenty of science without becoming expert at any one subject and I can tell you without a doubt that the covid 19 phenomenon was a psyop. Bullshit from beginning to end except of course for all the collateral damage (which is ongoing).
I can tell you that with the same confidence I can tell you many things I am not expert in.
What one becomes expert at, the more experience one has, is sniffing out bullshit.
That is to say, one has a much greater sense of what isn’t true than what is.
I would accept the label of “expert” but expert in what isn’t than what is.
Where are the 300,000 new troops? Are they in Belarus yet?
Being fitted out with skis for the coming attack.
Some very interesting developments occurred this past week:
1. Russian fertilizer that was stuck in the Netherlands for months was allowed to proceed to its destinations.
2. India was given “permission” by the West to buy as much Russian oil as it wants.
3. The UK metal exchange said it would not ban from Russia on the exchange.
I think this signals that the USA/West is looking for a way out of the Ukraine debacle.
Anton Gorbatow wrote: “I think this signals that the USA/West is looking for a way out of the Ukraine debacle”.
I think you are right.
The Biden Regime is on borrowed time, and will be Attacked by Republicans for the expensive war in Ukraine.
Denmark is also in a dead political period trying to form a New Government.
Sweden´s new Government, which will not allow NATO nuclear weapons or Troops on Swedish soil.
The German Chancellor has left for Beijing, trying to save German industry.
NATO is cracking
I tend to doubt that Republicans would really mean it, if they criticize all the expenses to Ukraine.
Aren’t most of those expenses going to the MIC? Aren’t the congress and all , democrats and republicans, financed by the MIC?
As moon of Alabama quoted: “if voted made a difference, it would be forbidden “.
If the Republicans (I use the term loosely) were concerned, then we’d hear the screaming and shouting about the slow count to another Democratic manufactured victory.
2 Brands – One Ownership aka, The Illusion of Choice.
It is just a deal which includes leaving Kherson and do not even think about Odessa or nuke will be the answer (message sent by bojo on april 16th via diplomatic source) J Baud former swiss intel officer on Sud Radio France months ago.
This is also the reason they don’t touch Zelensky.
Multiple sanctions have been cancelled in secret, only in the Netherlands 91 sanctions have been cancelled but it is top secret for national security reason.
Zapo civil nuclear facility will return to Ukraine including UN 1.500 blue helmets as a peace mission in a 30 kms area around the facility. Ukraine must sell his electricity to the EU otherwise they will (EU)have blackouts if not this winter next one for sure.
Neocons want Crimea back but Pentagon says do not touch too dangerous. Pentagon evaluates that Crimea is the only area Russia will really retaliate with whatever needed.
They are more prudent than state dept crazies.
Interesting. Source(s) for bullet (2)?
Indian FM and petroleum minister have been giving nonstop statements to press, at meets, think tanks etc at the rate of at least once a week that India buys oil in the market at commercial considerations and doesn’t feel( take, but too polite to say so) any pressure by any nation on its purchases, That its sole aim is to ensure energy is available to the Indian consumer at best cost possible.
The amount of relentless hammering on of this line for months on end to Indian public opinion has created a reality that Indian public should depend on Indian govt to ensure no neo colonial pressure is given to India.
The consequences of such a line for US is stark. Huge number of companies and professionals are Inter twined with US business Any significant rupture will effect US business competitiveness.
So US had no option but to accept the new reality created thanks to SMO and some clever maneuvering by Indian Govt..
So it’s not US giving permission rather acceptances of facts on ground.
In my opinion, the Russian Federation has made NO serious errors or misjudgements for the entire duration of the SMO.
Does that mean everything has gone the Russian Federation’s way? Of course not; in war both sides get to shoot. Plans must be adjusted and snap decisions made. But none of that has altered what will be the ultimate outcome of this conflict.
Always remember that a military maneuver doesn’t have to have just one objective.
The opening drive from Belarus to Kiev was a spoiling attack whose primary objective was to interrupt an imminent offensive against the Donbass. It may also have had a secondary objective that, if conditions were favorable, Kiev itself could be occupied. Hence the extra equipment hanging out on the Highway.
Conditions were not favorable so that secondary objective was not further pursued. The primary objective was successful.
As for an offensive directed along the Black Sea coast. Unless the objective is limited to the capture of Nikolaev, I would be very nervous about extending my front like that. Even with 300,000 additional troops, I’d feel a little stretched.
I can’t know for sure. But, once the new troops are fully prepared and in place, I expect two breakthroughs to be executed with the primary objective of forcing the remaining Ukrainian forces in Donetsk to either withdraw or be destroyed/captured.
Time will tell.
Amusing analysis, along with Bernhard’s. Kherson is a bridgehead, either you advance or withdraw. Staying is expensive logistically, and vulnerable to attack, and denial of escape routes. Doesn’t look good after Izium and Kharkiv though. Advances are slow in the donbass, and the withdrawals rapid. Russia is winning a war of attrition over “perceptions” of territorial gain.
The commenters that are worried about the withdrawal should watch more of the videos that I post links to. A significant amount of video evidence is available proving that the Kiev regime’s military is gradually getting annihilated due to Russia’s vast superiority in artillery and aviation. Russia will absolutely win and Washington will suffer another humiliating geopolitical defeat, as it just did last year in Kabul.
RT crew follows Russian forces in battles with mercenaries on front in Lugansk (large numbers of Polish mercenaries are reported on the LPR front. I’ve also seen other reports of thousands of Polish mercenaries in and around the city of Zaporozhye):
DPR troops take out Kiev regime troops hiding in drainage pipes:
DPR tanks destroy and capture Kiev regime fortified position near Pavlovka:
Russian Lancet drone destroys US-supplied M777 howitzer (very good footage here):
Russian Lancet drone hunts down and destroys Kiev regime Grad launcher:
Russian Lancet drone takes out entire enemy squad:
Russian Uragan MLRS pound enemy positions:
Russian Ka-52 precision strike takes out moving Kiev regime armored vehicle:
Russian strike takes out US-supplied “MaxxPro” armored fighting vehicle:
Those Polish morons are probably Nato soldiers.
Yes, that is definitely possible. However, without having any insider knowledge, I suspect that these NATO countries have some kind of recruiting scheme going on for the purposes of plausible deniability. For instance, soldiers could be offered some kind of “honorable discharge” from their military if they agree to go become a (highly paid) mercenary in this conflict for a while. I think that is what probably most of them are.
I have seen video and heard reports, that the Ukrainians (NATO) are building a huge wall on the Belarusian and Ukraine border to ‘thwart’ any attempt of an invasion from Belarus/Russia into Ukraine?
Another Maginot line??
After Russia’s “feint” and withdrawal from Kiev, Luka of Belarus mobilized forces to cover Russia’s back, and block Poland from attempting any incursions into the north or west of Ukraine..
If you read any Russian websites, then you know that attempts by UA and Poland for color revolution in Belarus have not stopped, and bad actors / organizers are still being arrested in Belarus..
By building a wall on the frontier, they are doing Luka a favor, as Belarus does not want a bad element to enter their country anyway..
Andrei you are back full throttle, no-none-sense explanation but more importantly a justified criticism as to the over reaction of some of your people in Russia regarding the Kherson pull back. People react in shock at times because of Russia’s stature as a military might without having any comprehension of military strategy and logistics. I personally admire the way Russian leaders protect their soldiers and the citizens of the liberated areas of Ukraine from suffering any unnecessary loss of life.
Finally brother while you have some talented contributors like Gonzalo, Pepe and Andrei Martyanov who consistently enrich this site, I notice lately that some of your contributors are sounding a lot like some writers here in the states who want to lay all the blames of the world’s problems on anyone with white skin. This anti-white rhetoric is prevalent here in every institution from schools, to television to social media. President Biden a few months ago proudly stated that in a few decades the white race in America will be a minority and that this is a very good thing. He received an immediate standing ovation from all the politicians after his statement. My point is don’t let some misguided bigots ruin this site. Protect your site from hateful ideologues.
Live Action War Games
Perhaps it is worthwhile to see the Kherson problem from the lens of the stated goal of reclaiming Crimea.
The Ukraine attacks on the Kakhovka dam also threatened to cut off water to the canal providing water to the Kherson Oblast and more importantly to Crimea. See Google maps on the canal network in Kherson Oblast and Crimea and the agricultural production it supports…
The evacuation of Kherson city removed both the threat of flooding Kherson city as well as the main source of water via the canal. Loss of the canal water supply was and is a far more important goal than retaining Kherson city. Furthermore, Russia could not have lowered the water level without cutting off the water flow through the canal.
in short, the Kakhovka dam attacks are a bookend to the Kerch bridge terrorist attack. One of the main goals of the globalist agenda is the control of the transport networks. This globalist hydra has succeeded in eliminating gas flow via the Northstream pipelines, slowed traffic along the Kerch bridge, and was threatening the water supply for Kherson and Crimea.
Thus far Russia has only taken down the Ukrainian Zatoka railway bridge supplying fuel to Ukrainian troops in Odessa. It is now free to eliminate bridges along the Dnipro and Pivdennyl Buh rivers.
There are some great photos of the dam and power plant at Google Maps, also some historical photos showing its construction, which started in 1950.
Wiki has some interesting info on the functions and many purposes of dam and hydroelectrical plant.
Great piece, Andrei. Thank you.
Great insight about Hurricane Nicole. The Lord works in mysterious ways and your strength is much better saved for the deep, big picture analysis which you excel at than sparring with trolls and fools.
In a chess game, one does not fret about losing a pawn or even a major piece. Given the overall massive “Ukrainian” losses, is it realistic to expect Russia should not herself suffer any loss or cede any ground at any point? Russia is in effect fighting a NATO army – trained, armed, and dug in over an 8-year period. This is no small feat.
It is easy to lose sight of the nested nature of this conflict. The best metaphor perhaps is the Matryoska doll – conflict within a conflict within a conflict. If Russia conquers all of Ukraine but Hegemony persists and the multipolar world which SCO, BRICS++ promise is stillborn, Putin, Russia, the rest of Zone B plus all those in Zone A with the Empire of Lies’ financial and military boot on their necks would have lost. As you and others have noted, this is an existential war for what it means to be human – the right for all to exist, living with freedom and dignity.
So in the big picture of things, what does left-bank or right-bank matter, or a bridge blown and Crimean traffic disrupted for a few hours? Let us not be small and silly in our fretfulness. It is for us to pray for justice and truth in the world, and to keep our faith and courage up. Russia cannot and will not lose. The sweep of History is greater than all of us.
If Kherson was difficult for the Russians to defend, would it not be equally or more difficult for Ukraine to defend Kherson?
If Ukraine has to assign troops/material to defend Kherson then it means it as less troops elsewhere.
Thank you, Andrei. Even a layman like me can see that Surovkin’s decision makes sense. A look at the flooding map suffices.
I have a question. Some Telegram channels say that, when the Russian army had already left the Cherson area, there were still many civilians queuing up on the right bank, waiting for boats to ferry them to safety. Do you have reliable information about their fate? Let’s hope they were eventually rescued…
If a group want to do something without it being known or effectively opposed by people, an alternative to doing it in secret is to do it openly while simultaneously introducing enough alternatives narratives, noise, so that no one can tell which one is real other than, perhaps, a few experts who know enough to more easily discern what is noise — something like running water while speaking privately when being bugged. One can employ enough trolls, propagandists, etc. to shout out every possible message, creating a confusing cacophony, and completely overloading the attention span of a general audience, who does not know who to listen to, or when.
I’ve beem seeing this with trolls, politicians, various news and media sources, military people, and from the general population who repeats rumors and misinformation and disinformation — and in diverse subject matters, including medical, economic, military, political, scientific, and other areas. It’s similar to throwing up large numbers of decoy missiles to overwhelm a defense system (or hiding a needle in a haystack).
When some subject of inquiry is suddenly flooded with noise I become suspicious that there is some operation started, or some development, which some group wants to obscure.It’s a thing to watch for.
From what I saw of the american generals, they’re more interested how they’ll look into the eyes of the public(what everyone calls “optics” – is that some kind of newspeak? we use to call it “repuation” in the past), rather than care about the lives of the soldiers under their command.
Unlike them, the russian generals don’t give a damn what the public thinks – to quote Larry Jonson: The massmedia and the telegramers don’t get a vote on who wins the war in the Ukraine. Which is the reason why the russians don’t bother much with PR and PSYOP – they really don’t care what western presstitutes and the telegramers think or say about them,
When the russian units were positioned in Kherson, they had a big problem – when the inevitable NATO (sorry, I meant to say “Ukrainian”) attack comes, they would’ve been pinned with their backs to the river with no easy way to resupply – usually one of the first thing an attacking army would do is to try to cut as much routes of withdrawal as possible, i.e. they would’ve done everything possible to destroy the bridges over Dnieper. If, under these circumstanes, the russuans try to withdraw by crossing the river, they would’ve suffered massive casualties from the Ukies artillery – no matter how ancient soviet or grossly overrated western system the Ukies use, an exploding shell is an exploding shell. Add to this the threat to destroy Kahovskaya Dam, which would flood half of the Khesron city and the result would’ve been really disastrous defeat for the russians even without the gross exageration that the western presstitutes usually do,
Instead, general Surovikin did something else – he evacuated the civilian population of Kherson (at least, those who chose to be evacuated; from what I saw, those who’ve remained are on the Ukie’s side), then withdrew his forces to the eastern bank to Dnieper and destroyed the routes of easy crossing by blowing the bridges, thus making the problem I’ve described above into NATO’s problem – if the NATO forces try to cross the river, they’ll be subjected to constant artillery and high-precision missile strikes. This would lead to really big losses for NATO, which even the western presstitutes may not be able to hide for long. And, of course, there’s always the threat to blow up Kahovskaya Dam, but this time it would be the NATO’s forces that would drown, not the russian’s.
War are about optics and this and every next will be even more this is why Russia,if they can,needs to go for the kill at some point.By that i mean that the victory needs to be so great that is going to look as such even on tv and social media.
The first Gulf war was such a victory because CNN could show destroyed columns of Iraqi vehicles and thousands of Iraqi soldiers surrendering that is what made it such a victory.
This is why this looks so bad for Russia because we are in the 9th month of this and there is even talks of negotiations that all sounds media wise like a defeat and disaster.
Hope the Russians prove me wrong.
Many commenters on those websites providing a sound analysis of the Russian SMO often cite the Mercouris/Christiforou duo, as if these two are an authority on any subject. To be fair to Mercouris, he does often stress the fact that he is not a military analyst, the only problem is that he then always goes on to attempt a military analysis. It’s waste of time reviewing what two amateurs have to say, about the SMO, or anything else – just to say this, curiosity got the better of me & I watched “The Duran” analysis of the Herson withdrawal/redeployment – in the entire discussion, the two Alex’s did not mention the Kakhovka Dam once. Not once. That is all anyone needs to know about the supposed expertise of these two. The attempted destruction of the Dam by Ukranazi’s & the eventual flooding of Herson is quite possibly the single most important factor in the decision for a Russian withdrawal – & yet these two did not even mention it. They had the gall to claim that there are serious issues of “bad planning” in the Russian military hierarchy, the GS & Kremlin. They had the audacity to claim that Putin has a control obsession on this & will not allow the military to assume rightful command – their basis for this knowledge? Not cited. An opinion is an opinion, but this is a claim to know. Can you imagine the arrogance of this? Then there is Dugin. All I will say about him is for anyone undecided & with half a brain, watch his supposedly “famed debate of the century” of one Bernhard Henri Levi, an imbecile of the first order & western fascist, if you can stand to watch more than 5 minutes. In this debate, Dugin’s entire demeanour is one of the fake opponent, in fact, it is quite plain to discern that he has total admiration for Levi, & not just Levi, but the west – you can see in this debate that Dugin is absolutely ecstatic that he has been invited to perform before a western audience in concert with the great Levi, & he absolutely loves it. At no time in this debate does Dugin so much as attempt to seriously oppose Levi’s fascist ideology, the west’s fascist behaviour, or present Russia as a country that has in inherent right to be what it wishes to be with no need to explain itself to anyone, much less the degenerate & cesspit western hemisphere. That is Dugin. It is of note that it is precisely the western corporate media complex that attempted to present Dugin for years now as a serious figure in Russia, in this sense, like Navalny (which is plain obvious), it is clear that the west bestows favour on Dugin. Some will protest & say what about his martyred daughter – that wasn’t just the SBU but had the stamp of western intel all over it. No doubt, & this aspect I will not discuss out of respect for her memory, I would just say think about what her murder does for the image of her father in the western world, what kind of a precipice that places him on. I’ll say no more than that.
I share your opinion on the Duran duo wholeheartedly. These guys are making a name for themselves, especially Christoforou, taking talking points from mainly the Western media!!! I hardly ever hear them quote Russian or Chinese or other independent sources. I mean, heck, being both Greek they should even at least try taking some hints from Warnews247, a Greek military blog, which is much more objective than anything you find in Europe. Honestly, I trust my animal instincts down to the last cell and there is something about both that doesn’t resonate with me at all. Even their body language gives them away to an extent! In short, they irritate. A total different argument when I hear Doug MacGregor, Scott Ritter, Larry Johnson or Gonzalo Lira speak, 4 men gifted with logic and persuasive lexical reasoning.
Mercouris predicted there would be a withdrawal at Kherson. He has talked about the risks of the dam breaking, and he did not mention any “deals” (which turned out to be fake news!)
They have video updates every single day so not sure which video you saw.
I personally listen to them whenever I can. They provide an excellent overview political, economic, military of events both in Russia and the West.
“They have video updates every single day so not sure which video you saw.”
The one before last, Removed. Tone down your response. Mod. if you want to watch it, go ahead, I have better things to do. The point here is that the dam issue – & it was at risk of being destroyed, not “breaking”, unless that’s what you meant – is that even if they mentioned it, which they did not, the dam is the critical factor in the Kherson redeployment, to ignore that is beyond amateur, it is totally incompetent, when they are claiming analyst status (I don’t mean you, I mean them).
As for their daily briefings etc.,Removed. Mod. there are elementary aspects of all of this they do not understand, they do not understand escalation management, the fact that Russia is timing its escalation with the west/NATO because that is who they are at war with. The west is concentrating all its efforts & resources on Ukraine, the two Greeks don’t get, that if Russia was to score a quick decisive victory in 404, escalation with the US would happen immediately, plus they (NATO) would focus on destablilizing the other fronts, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Caucasus etc. But it’s not my job to explain this sh** to people who are too dumb to get the basics of all of this, if they don’t get it, they never will.
I have been watching the videos of Mercouris/Christiforou regarding Russia’s SMO and I personally consider these two men honest and very informative. They are both constantly having guests like Gonzalo, Andrei, The New Atlas and others that have consistently been giving true and factual updates on the SMO. The fact that Christiforou also criticized Russia for pulling out of Kherson is completely understood and warranted to a certain extent. There is no doubt about it, Russia’s pulling out of Kherson is a setback while at the same time a prudent and necessary decision. The Ukrainians stated that they would take back Kharkov, they took back Khakov. They claimed that they would retake Kherson, they retook Kherson. Russia’s correct decision to leave Kherson city will protect the people of Kherson and the troops that were stationed there but unfortunately the pull out will also create more danger to the people of other pars of Ukraine since now NATO will be inspired to send more weapons to Ukraine to continue to bomb the Donbass and other parts of liberated Ukraine.
“I have been watching the videos of Mercouris/Christiforou regarding Russia’s SMO and I personally consider these two men honest and very informative.”
Congratulations. If they work for you, then good. They sell mugs & t-shirts as well. Greeks bearing gifts.
But on the matter at hand, war, SMO, geopolitics, they have no clue. They once sang Sultan Erdogan’s praises, then changed their minds 6 months later & plagiarized my then criticism of them & factored it into their new analysis of how incompetent Erdogan really is, as averse to what they were saying earlier – the exact opposite. They do not understand that Russia is in a war with the west that they have prepared for for 20 years, & this war may last another 20 years, not 2 months, or 6, or 9, but years, this will go on for years.
“They do not understand that Russia is in a war with the west that they have prepared for for 20 years, & this war may last another 20 years, not 2 months, or 6, or 9, but years, this will go on for years.”
Not to go off into the weeds re Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris, I think Mercouris is fully cognizant of the nature of this conflict.
Regarding the military day-by-day, Mercouris is always careful to state that he is not a military analyst. A lot of bona fide military analysts are also guessing, or guessing wrong. I don’t understand the animus against him.
Speaking of which, one analyst who never misses an opportunity to dump on Mercouris and also constantly crows that he gets it right when no one else does is Jacob Dreizin.
So maybe he should have a guest spot here.
“I don’t understand the animus against him.”
Well, I’ll give you a hint – I’ll say no more about this after this post, because it really is a waste of time & the 2 Alex’s aren’t worth the effort – but yesterday, after reading some of the replies to my comment, I watched The Duran’s latest discussion. The 2 Alex’s make the assertion that “Putin is not a war time president” – I’m not sure how to respond to that, whether to laugh & take it as a bad joke, that in the months to come, the 2 A’s will regret, or whether to be knocked out by the sheer arrogance of this statement. Some will think I’m coming from a Putin worship angle – that he is faultless, the SMO is sheer brilliance etc. etc. I have my own questions & queries about certain aspects of the SMO, primarily based on the earlier criticisms of Kadyrov & Prigozhin, who definitely know what they are talking about, but I am taking issue with the critique of types like “The Duran” that well & truly do not know what they are talking about. Putin has overseen numerous conflicts since he came to power in 2000, from Chechnya/Caucasus, to Ossetia/Georgia to the Syria war, not to mention regional peacekeeping ops, Nagorno Karabakh, Kazakhstan, the colour op in Belarus – all this Putin has overseen & managed, while simultaneously managing Russia’s general economic & social recovery from the 1990s. To asset that Putin is not a war time president is………….I don’t know what to say. Except this. Put Putin’s past 20 years as Russia’s head of state behind, & remember that this war, the SMO in 404, is in to its 10th month. 10 months. How can you judge a war in 10 months that in truth, has only just begun to get off the ground? It is frankly beyond belief – but you know what? Who cares? The 2 A’s have made their own bed & it’s up to their loyal viewers to decide whether they are worthy of their support (& donations). Your mention of Jacob Driezin is interesting because the 2 A’s on “The Duran” used to guest him frequently, if I recall correctly. Didn’t Dreizin have his own guest spots? So what happened there? I don’t know, don’t care. They (Mercouris/Chrisiforou) have collaborated with all sorts over the years, Peter Lavelle at RT, Mark Sleboda, more recently Gonzalo Lira – who I really like, for his common sense, Lira is one of the only reasons I have watched the 2 A’s at all in the last few months – it seems they have fallen out with everyone they have worked with. It’s not for me to pyschoanalyse, but I get the impression that the 2 of them are beginning to annoy one another, so their Duran project may be headed south, but again, none of my business, I don’t care, & I will not comment further on these two, it is a total waste of time.
Christoforou never has had any presence on CrossTalk that I know of.
As for “waste of time,” it’s your time being wasted obsessing about this.
As much as I love The Duran when they went off on Putin a few weeks because “he let something happen that shouldn’t of happen in their eyes” it really left a bad taste in my mouth.
I still visit the site numerous times a day as they have a lot of great content posted from members but for the time being I’ve ceased watching their own videos.
A simple question: the risk of the dam destruction will persist even in case of a future counter-attack, with Russian army trying force the river crossing and establish a new bridgehead. Logistic will be again a nightmare, is this correct? If so, we can safely guess that there will be no plans to advance along the coast, but the long waited winter offensive will develop westward from the Donbass. Does this sound good?
The russians are currently counter-attacking at Ugledar. I wouldn’t be surprised if turns out that in medium term they’re aiming at capturing the dam from both sides before proceeding westwards.
Russia is for the world, and everyone who has the wellbeing of both Russia and Ukeaine at heart stands on the same ground and is united. That is a fact, even if their views don’t always match up, changes of perception may occur, especially now when the tides of civilization have moved us into unchartered waters where new directions and events must be chartere, all those who present and share varied areas of long standing interest knowledge and experiece, are valuable and appreciated, including the brain waves of new commers.
UK Column, Plymouth, pulled this video up, from Defense Policy Asia :
Ukrainian Hero, encircled and cut off from retreat at the Vuhledar region, recorded his last words.
Under incessant Russian artillery fire in the trenches, the point being to show UK viewers what British support for UAF really means !
DPA has very good war situation maps….
On the question of White Phosphorous being used by Russian artillery, there are very relevant links here :
Just to keep it on topic, otherwise you look like the purpose of the post is to promote UKC:
11:43 Viewer e-mail: Was white phosphorus used by the Russians, or was it another type of GRAD warhead using thermite with magnesium caps (9N510)?
— Either way, phosphorus is not banned internationally for firing on troops in the field
— OpIndia report
I watch and listen to UK column whenever I have the time, same as reading the Saker, but woulden’t have read Bonbon’s comments as being for promotion purposes, it’s the content that is interesting and matters.
The Saker is a fantastic source, God bless.
I saw that video and it was very moving.
A reminder that Ukrainian troops are being ruthlessly used by the West/NATO
Americans killed 10x more Vietnamese.
Russia is being mild. The US 3rd Marine Wing alone dropped 500 thousands ton of bombs on Iraq in 2003 according to a news arricle.
As for Dugin , RTDE has a detailed article (German) :
Dugin sees cause of failures in the “ruling class” and the world before the apocalypse
The Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin had criticized on Thursday about the loss of Kherson. Western media saw this as a demand for Vladimir Putin’s resignation. On Saturday, the philosopher contradicted this account and clarified where he sees the cause of the failures.
There are Telegram statements and explanation.
“The West and the (Ukrainian) Center for Informational and Psychological Special Operations (ZIPSO) have begun to spread fake news that after the surrender of Kherson I and the Russian patriots turned against Putin and allegedly demanded his departure. This is not coming from anywhere, and they are referring to an allegedly deleted message from me. It is clear that no one will believe this. But just in case: no one has turned away from Putin, I and all Russian patriots support him unconditionally.”
So, a ZIPSO psyop.
Is there a possibility the same will happen in Zaporizhia ? If I look on the maps it looks similar to Kherson.
The western part of the city is on the wrong side of the Dniepr…
Russia did the right thing pulling out of western segment of Kherson. If that territory is considered a difficult place holding onto then the same criteria should apply to the NATO- Neonazi troops moving in. In fact Ukraine must allocate a very substantial part of its deteriorating military force for a strategically insignificant section without any chance of launching further attacks south toward Mariupol /Crimea. It seems Russia is following a wait and see strategy. There’s more happening on other fronts globally. The one thing that really needs urgent consideration is the introduction of a common currency among BRICKS, SCO member countries. The US-NATO are taking advantage of this slow motion response on the part of the Eurasian powers to incite chaos, regional wars amongst the countries lining the southern regions of Russia as well as northern regions of Iran from Central Asia to Caucasus. Increasingly those governments in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkiye,… starting speak about Pan-Turkism a lot recently which sound very similar with Zelinski regimes’ neonazi superiority complex narrative. Anglo-Zionist banking mafia is spending huge sums of $ bribing these middle countries. If an Eurasian new currency introduced today, most undecided, middle countries would at once join the new system without fear of reprisal or confiscation of their wealth that are held in US$ by the Zionist bankers. It would then become much easier for Russia smashing the Neonazis in Ukraine without too much humanitarian compassion.
I consider myself an “expert” having cut my teeth on kovid related issues.
I remember saying on this forum that an invasion of Ukraine by Russia needed minimum 700K troops day one and the operation had to be completed quickly.
To achieve the overthrow of the regime in Kiev and force the west to negotiate.
None of that happened.
A better idea would have been a blockade of the Baltic states like what the US attempted to do with Cuba in 1961.
Create a rapid crisis for which the west wasn’t prepared .
Empires do not stop being empires through negotiation, nor a hegemonic power willingly relinquish hegemony, especially not the US which is agreement incapable.
For Russia to have done what you suggest would have isolated Russia, causing it to lose the moral high ground and set back the momentum for the emergence of a multipolar world. Zone B does not want to replace one lawless bully by another lawless bully.
That happened anyway
What I suggested although risking direct conflict with nato
Would of illustrated the futility of nato expansion
Ukraine invasion just looks like Russian imperialism
And is easily portrayed as such
A blockade with reasonable demands such as no outside military in the baltics would have made sense to most people.
Remember Crimea was taken without conflict and was a relatively successful push back
The best that can be hoped for now is a frozen conflict
The territory seized doesn’t add any real strategic depth for Russia
At the expense of exposing Russian military weakness
Emboldened Nato to be more brazen
Russia has known that Ukraine is NATO’s big diversion and a trap from the first day it launched the SMO. Spending so much time and resources on it would have immensely helped neocons’ spread of their build-back-better/gender bending programs on the world following the two-year Covid-19 universal lock up.
Thank you, Andrei, for providing much-needed clarification of the decision by the Russian military to relocate [20,000?] troops to the eastern bank of the Dnirpro River. No doubt, the Russians are well aware of NATO forces in the region, which can be potentially increased with additional troops from Poland and Romania. From my perspective, the US empire is apoplectic that the Russia-China-Iran axis has achieved military/economic parity with the West and is increasingly viewed as an intolerable obstacle to US global power. As Pepe Escobar has pointed out, Biden does not want an encore of the 2 decade long/$2.3 trillion Afghanistan debacle in Ukraine. As you state-
‘Russia and the West have been locked into an existential war for survival since AT LEAST 2013 and we are very close to a possible nuclear war, but some folks still think that Putin works for the US, the WEF, Klaus Schwab, Bibi Netanuyahu.’ Unfortunately, empires in decline are not rational actors.
Do I have anything to add?
It seems, to my cynical, practical mind, that there is no way for Ukraine to beat Russia, and never has been, hence the NATO sponsorship. It also seems obvious that modern societies cannot fight the twentieth century style of war, because of GPS and missiles/drones, and the projected effect of these on modern cities, and global supply chains.
Perhaps there is some vain hope that on shoring will allow America to conduct a war to preserve its position, but I still struggle to see how they would supply a war effort in Europe from across the Atlantic in the face of modern hyper sonic satellite guided weaponry. I am cleverer than the average bear, but I will bet there are people who are even cleverer, and more importantly, better informed, and trained in the US strategic services.
So, basically I am ignorant of Kremlin intentions, and Pentagon calculations, I have no idea of force concentration or disposition. I have no idea of the amount or real capabilities of the offensive forces of either side. Ignorant to the point of not really being able to make predictions regarding any short term outcomes.
But, even being this ill informed, I still know that Ukraine will not beat Russia, and that America is unable to hold Europe by force of arms. Those two things tell me what the long term outcome will be. The rest is just as the old English politician said, ‘Events, dear boy. Events’.
So their are events, and outcomes, and Kherson, for all its emotional significance in the moment, is just an event.
By the way, Andrei, I have to disagree on Dugin, whom I love. He has issued a statement debunking earlier attempts by ‘persons unknown’ to put him in opposition to VV Putin, and has stated his complete faith and loyalty to the supreme commander. Is that ‘over the top’ in today’s environment. I don’t think so. I think it is necessary, because Russia, and loyal Europeans, are at war with hegemonic, global anti human forces. You would know more of the details of his life, but I think he is on the right track philosophically when he says we must respect other civilisations and try to build a world where we are not all measured by the same yardstick of material progression. Hope you weathered the storm better this time. Kind Regards,
The site Turcopolier is a site I used to respect and go to a lot. But since the Russian SMO started it’s gone way downhill fast. It’s now spewing nothing but hatred of all things Russian with links to western MSM news sites and some site called ISW run by a bunch of children. And they’re pushing the propaganda that Russia is losing and will lose this conflict. Their hatred of Russia is disgusting.
Vielleicht liege ich richtig, wenn ich annehme, dass die Befreiung von Nikolajew und Odessa nach einem ähnlichen Plan ablaufen wird wie die Operation der 3. und 4.Ukrainischen Front vom 06-18. März 1944. Die Fronlinie war ähnlich. Deshalb wird zur Zeit alles daran gesetzt die tief gestaffelte Verteidigung im Donbas zu durchbrechen.
Wenn man aus dem Rathaus rauskommt ist man natürlich klüger als wenn man rein geht
(Deutsches Sprichwort). Schnelle Bewegungen in die Tiefe des Feindes, sind erst möglich, wenn die in acht Jahren aufgebaute tief gestaffelte Verteidigung aufgebrochen wurde. Am Tag 12 dieser Operation wurde die Linie Nikolajew- Neu Odessa (südlicher Bug) erreicht.
Perhaps I am right when I assume that the liberation of Nikolayev and Odessa will proceed according to a similar plan as the operation of the 3rd and 4th Ukrainian Fronts of March 06-18, 1944. The front line was similar. Therefore, at the moment everything is being done to break through the deeply staggered defense in the Donbas.
When you get out of the town hall, of course, you are smarter than when you go in
(German proverb). Rapid movements into the depths of the enemy are only possible when the deeply staggered defense built up in eight years has been broken up. On day 12 of this operation, the Nikolayev- Neu Odessa (Southern Bug) line was reached.
As soon as I learned about the build-up of forces in Belarus of both Belarussian and Russian, I thought that the game would be an attack from the north, either to the west to interdict NATO or to Kyiv to put an end to the nonsense once and for all. Of course, moving south to Odesa and Mykolaiv, and also to Kherson, would be easy.
That is my armchair general assessment.
There’s one more category that Andrei forgot – The so called Russia supporters but who become despaired and dejected at the first sign of any kind of retreat which they lament as a great and irreplaceable loss – For me, this is the worst category because this are the kind of friends who hang out with you all the time but will run away at the first sign of trouble and when they come back once trouble is over would tell you very graphically how they were going to help you – Russia has the support of close to 6 billion people on this planet who wholeheartedly believe in the cause because Russia is doing the right thing on behalf of all of them – People need to have more faith and trust and patience
The KISS principal, Keep It Simple Stupid. Russia has always obeyed the time honoured KISS principle. For instance, the ak-47 is a plain and simple weapon, nothing too complicated about it, it just does its job. Most people are simple, and can only understand simple things. Putin has gone and made the Ukrainian war too complicated.
All these retreats for highly intellectual reasons, all the decisions not to bomb Ukrainian infrastructure thoroughly for cerebral reasons that go over most peoples heads. Putin has all the intellectuals in his hands, but is losing the not so bright, and the not so bright are in the majority. That’s ok if Russia were an autocracy where the not so bright majority don’t count, but Russia is not an autocracy, Russia is a democracy, the not so bright majority count. Its now quite conceivable that some not so bright Russian might go and kill Putin because that not so bright Russian believes that Putin is a traitor to Russia.
The average Russia soldier, who is not so bright, has been made to retreat for so long now that he might not know what to do when he is given an order to advance. Putin has a tough job, but he is antagonizing your average not so bright Russia. You either have war or you have peace, you don’t have war and peace at the same time, which is happening in Ukraine right now with the allowing of the grain shipments to continue. Putin’s overly cerebral strategy works beautifully if he is a dictator, then he can retreat and do all he wants in Ukraine for whatever reason, and his reasoning is most definitely sound, but he is not a dictator, he is a democratically elected leader. He has got to keep things simple, no more highfalutin chess, more checkers / draughts needed. Dugin’s daughter was killed, he wants revenge, its a normal human reaction. If you don’t allow normal human reactions room you might as well just kill the humans, because the essence of their humanity is denied, they might as well not even procreate no more. That is what overly cerebral strategy gets you.
But it takes a long time for the not so bright majority to rumble, if they ever do rumble. So Putin has time to rectify matters, or declare himself Tsar, which ever comes first. The end result is complete Russian victory in Ukraine and then some.
…you may forget something…in highly distress situation such killing your relatives you may say something or do something you may regret late…Mr.Dugin have not done it…..
Expertise exists, even if real experts can be mistaken at times, and this is much different than being called or calling onselves ‘expert’, which is so common now.
As an example, I have listened to microbe.tv for several years, where one can find real experts on biology and viruses — people who have worked at and taught those things for many decades, and who express doubts and uncertainties which are part of science. Yet, they are real experts, among the world’s best, and far more reliable than even the average medical doctor.
The trick is to be able to recognize true experts, which in itself requires a fair bit of self-education, including recognizing the groups which have achieved power and reputation instead of real knowledge and judgement, so common in the West, the media, the politicians, and the wealthy. There is an old Sufi maxim that fools gold exists only because there is also real gold.
As for Kherson pullback, look at the ocean: waves come in and go out, and yet there are tides when water levels overall go up or down — and there are also ‘tides in the affair’s of men’. (said Shakespeare). Eurasia and ‘zone B’ is rising, the empire continues to collapse, and Russia continues to win the war in Ukraine agaist NATO. Mobility is a great advantage in fighting war, and that means being able to move into, and out of, an area as circumstances indicate. An excellent and fundamental defensive move when attacked is the ability to ‘not be there’ when the opponent directs a blow. If one tries to punch you, why would you not duck? Watch any prize fight — the contestants are always bobbing and ducking, but the loser can be seen flatfooted and not able to get out of the way of attacks as he tires. Where can the Ukrainian forces or NATO duck to now? They are stuck in place, flatfooted, with no mobility. Don’t have to be an expert to see that.
Best article I ever saw on the state of internet psychosis that has ever been published. This framework could be applied to many events over the last many decades. Maybe a bit sarcastic for some but that is about all we have left in the evolving tragedy of western thinking. Thanks again for the analysis.
RT has reported that the large dam was indeed seriously damaged by Ukie/NATO shelling and might have been in danger of collapse and catastrophic flooding. Had this indeed happened while Russian forces where occupying the other side of the river, it would have spelled disaster for them. Hence, the reason for the withdrawal. Makes perfect sense now.
Col. Doug. MacGregor is serious US brass, with a great grasp of economics (commerce), geopolitics, here explains with Aaron Mate (of Greyzone, recently de-platformed at Web Summit in Portugal by demand of Frau Zelensky personally) :
Straight Calls 6 – Ukraine capitulation is on the horizon
Col. MacGregor, from Trump’s Admin, points out the mistakes made by Trump back then in 2017, leading to the present catastrophe.
Good article. Too many people in the west fail to understand that the Russian Army has its own plans, tactics, strategy, equipment and experience. They contributed the bulk of the effort against Nazi Germany, and don’t need to follow the mistakes and occasional successes made by the west in WWII in order to win a war.
You are right this is only a minor speedbump.
Why can there be no real deal,no real retreat,no new Minsk? Here is why those can not be,will not be:
Eternal Memory Heroes:
Eternal Memory Heroes:
If it is not the will of the system,
it shall not be done.
The system will survive or not on the answer to that question.
Seems like the Russians are not really all to concerned about territory; appear to be focusing in on body and disabled weapon counts instead. Appears to me, the Russians are utilizing the Ukraine more like a Roach Hotel; that is the roaches are drawn in, but don’t come out.
Before I comment further I have to decide whether I am a genius or an expert or maybe even a genius expert. However in the interim my personal sentiments are with Russia.
1. This proves that the Ukies are a viable military force and this was after the Russian MoD told us that they had destroyed double what Ukraine had at the start of the war. This is after Russophiles told us that Russia’s ‘get serious’ bombing campaign would immobilize Ukraine’s mobility.
2. ‘operationally sound but strategically a defeat’. Won’t speak for MoA but I can see how it is operationally sound for an outnumbered force to retreat while noting that this shows that Russia budgeted too little for the operation (a strategic shortcoming).
Kherson is the capital of an Oblast that is now part of Russia. Losing it shows an ‘oops’.
(btw nothing wrong w/being a Russophile)
The flooded map of Kherson reminds me of pictures of storm damage. Without the unflooded map it lacks impact. Which brings me to another category of unhelpful posting. The Lazy. Yes, kinda fatigued after the sun vanished as it does way up here. Had the same reaction at Martyanov’s site when he posted it, too lazy to track down what it looks like normally. But pretty curious so will double up on the vitamin D and maybe after the winter solstice may get around to finding it.
The whole idea of sacrificing resources to hang on to a difficult position to defend reminds me of a boxer with an obvious weakness. Untenable! Hell, if the Yanks can arrange blowing up a pipeline to destroy a dear ally, they can certainly blow a decrepit dam for mortal enemies. It’s the sort of thing tactical nukes were designed for, no? My buddy was saying the dam is used to provide Crimea with water. Yeah, too lazy to research that too.
Finally, it seems kinda obvious, if you want to protect civilians, you don’t park a bunch of military and equipment smack in the middle of a city or even nearby for that matter. Certainly, the Nazos have not hesitated to blow up civilians. Holding Kherson amounts to a classic killing two birds with one stone opportunity for evil mass murderers. Oops we were aiming for the base and well fog of war and whatnot. It would seem that a few of those folks who stayed in Kherson may give the invading Nazis a bit of a hard time.
So, it’s frustrating as winter is here, the ice bridges for traffic will open before Christmas but Ukraine is at least two months behind us. I could use some lessons on patience and getting around laziness from our Russian friends. Did you guys get to play in the big waves from the Hurricane?
Oh, one last thing if you are taking on the whole of the western world, I like the idea of sitting back and letting them bring the fight to ground you have a passing familiarity with. Why extend your supply lines needlessly. Meanwhile paying to keep a totally corrupt nation afloat will not do a thing to bring back the USA.
“decrepit dam ”
Is the dam decrepit?
Don’t ask the lazy guy for references, however my understanding is it has, like most thing in Ukraine not been maintained and has been attacked. I do believe Kherson must be hard to defend or the Natzo’s would not have given it up so easily in Feb.
The reason for my question is that it is not my impression that the dam is “decrepit.” Indeed it looks far to important to be allowed to become decrepit.
Even per Wiki:
“The dam has an associated lock and a power station with an installed capacity of 357 MW. Water from Kakhovka Reservoir is cooling the 5.7 GW Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and also sent via the North Crimean Canal and Dnieper–Kryvyi Rih Canal to irrigate large areas of southern Ukraine and northern Crimea. Construction on the dam began in September 1950. The last generator was commissioned in October 1956. It is operated by Ukrhydroenergo.
Starting in 2019 significant repairs and expansion were made to the facility. ”
Wiki also has an entry on the Kakhova Reservoir:
“The reservoir covers a total surface area of 2,155 square kilometres in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts of Ukraine. It is 240 km long and up to 23 km wide. The depth varies from 3 to 26 metres and averages 8.4 meters. The total water volume is 18.2 km³.
It is used mainly to supply hydroelectric stations, the Krasnoznamianka Irrigation System, the Kakhovka Irrigation System, industrial plants such as the 5.7 GW Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, freshwater fish farms, the North Crimean Canal and the Dnieper–Kryvyi Rih Canal. Its creation formed a deep-water route for ships to sail up the Dnieper. ”
There appears to be a roadway over the dam. other than that I can’t imagine any reason for Russia to attack the dam itself, even to cripple electric power in Ukraine. So many other factors would be affected negatively, including the water supply to Crimea and the safety of the Zap. nuclear power plant.
Will try to track down the source of my decrepit understanding. The dam seems a lot more important than the town somehow. Saw a video by G. Edward Griffin that put me off taking wiki at their word. Forever.
I enjoyed someone’s observation that the east bank is higher than the west and the Russian artillery will have the turkey shoot now.
Should probably at least look at a map of the dam before shooting my mouth off. A dammed river implies they will sort of be sharing that property, no?
I was born in 1956 and don’t consider myself decrepit. Eh, for the most part. Nod to Mod.
There are a lot of photos of the dam at Google Maps.
Please note that I wrote “Even per Wiki.”
That is shorthand for “Even though this topic has a strong political factor in the current environment, Wiki seems to provide factual information, documented also with non-English-language sources.” For instance, Wiki’s sources regarding the upgrades.
Wiki adds a section covering most recent events:
“On 24 February 2022, the power plant was captured by Russian forces during the 2022 Invasion of Ukraine. During weeks of artillery attacks by Ukraine in August and September, Ukrainian and Russian officials reported that the facility’s ability to transport vehicles had been degraded, but the dam itself retained structural integrity.
In mid-October 2022, news reports suggested that Russians may be planning to blow up the dam to slow down the Ukrainian counter offensive in the region.
On 12 November, The Daily Mail reported that a sabotage operation was executed by Russian soldiers dressed as civilians. The article provides purported CCTV footage of the moment the dam exploded. According to the article, “The video will be seen as evidence of deliberate destruction by the Russians as they withdraw from key locations in Kherson.” ”
However, no photos nor documentation are provided of the exploded or otherwise damaged dam. Apparently the roadway has been damaged. You can check out notes 7–14 at the Wiki entry.
If you find info that contradicts Wiki’s assessment, do share it.
The knee-jerk conclusion that one unreliable Wiki entry means no Wiki entries are reliable is simply silly, IMO. One can exercise some judgment as to what types of entries are useful and which ones have been doctored into uselessness.
“Should probably at least look at a map of the dam before shooting my mouth off” I would say puts you into one of the Saker’s final two categories.
My original comment got taken down for mocking but yours stands. I quit watching tv, movies etc., in 1978. I am a hi school dropout who scored well enough on their tests to wind up as a sonar tech on a nuke sub not having completed grade ten. I was trying to meet you halfway as I do truly believe the divide and conquer at play in the empire playbook will ultimately be our undoing, not their bioweapons or clever debt manipulation so much.
It is nice you have the time to wander around wiki chasing the truth.
Does anyone have the answer as to why during these uncertain times with Washington – Globalists challenging both Russia and Chinas sovereignty, why Russia and China don’t form a military alliance or Security Treaty. Australia/NZ and the USA have the ANZUS Treaty. It would make sense for these two large powers to formulate a Security Treaty like ANZUS, used as a deterrent against western aggression.
It’s not desirable with block configurations in a multi-polar world, this is what the ‘globalists’ want.
Regardless, both Russia and China can defeat the ‘Globalists’ on their own if necessary.
My two cents’ worth:
Russia and China already have several treaties and agreements on strategic matters, including a roadmap on military cooperation.
Besides that both RF & PRC are members of the SCO, an organisation dealing with political, economic and security matters in Eurasia. On top of that, the SCO has an agreement with the RF-led CSTO (PRC not a member) to expand cooperation on security, thus indirectly bringing PRC together with a military organisation that has a clause similar to Nato’s Article 5.
So there is a network of regional organisations where RF & PRC cooperate on security matters; VV Putin seems very happy with the arrangement to the point of remarking that Russia and China are not allies but have relations that are closer than that of allies.
Another point is, I think RF & PRC are both genuinely interested in forging a multi-polar world order and prefer to work multilaterally. In any case, a military alliance between two (cf Nato’s single great power) great powers suffers from a stink — mainly due to Nato’s behaviour these past two decades — that many countries, perhaps even members of CSTO & CIS, will find disturbing, if not threatening. Last but not least, RF has also to think of (China rival) India’s feelings. India is RF’s long-time friend and has recently proven to be not just a fair-weather friend — it has stood its ground on growing its economic ties with Russia despite constant US pressure. So, overall, perhaps it’s better for the two, RF & PRC, to have an alliance in essence rather than in form.
iR.47 gave a good explanation to your question. Generally speaking, based on what Russia, China and Iran already know about the US’ past/present/future behaviors, their best strategy is to set the stage so that the crazy empire would soon or later destroy itself by its own means i.e. commit suicide. All they have to do is to give the empire enough rope to do it.
To me it looks like the Ukraine show is about to be taken off the stage by the west.
The Wurlizer have been playing a different tune in the days before, and after the Kherson withdrawal.
Maybe it is being towned down to minimize Ukraine fatigue ?
“Conclusion: is the Kherson withdrawal some kind of disaster? Not in the least.”
Militarily, it was necessary. And militarily the board is being set for an offensive. We get that.
However, it is obviously a disaster for the residents of Kherson whose homes are now being looted, and for the people who remained in Kherson, now being “filtered” by the Nazis. It is a public relations disaster for the Russian government which spent a month doing the paperwork to annex Kherson. It sends a message to the other oblasts that Russia may not be able to protect them, and may withdraw.
For you to say it is not a disaster, not in the least, comes across as gaslighting.
While it is not the end of the world, it is a disaster that Russia will overcome. But it is unquestionably a disaster.
” It sends a message to the other oblasts that Russia may not be able to protect them, and may withdraw.”
This implies that residents of other oblasts are unable to understand the fairly obvious military rationale for the withdrawal because of the vulnerability of the site and terrain and also that those people see Russia just leaving them in the lurch.
Per Jacob Dreizin, residents of Kherson were given plenty of advance notice and opportunity to leave for safer homes in Russia proper and Crimea and the operation was not a hurried surprise affair.
So another reasonable “message” for residents of other oblasts is that their safety will be prioritized if the military situation develops in such a fashion that Russia has to make a strategic withdrawal and they will have time to leave the danger area.
According to Pepe Escobar, the Americans and Russians are indeed negotiating some kind of secret deal in Ankara between the CIA Supremo Nicholas Burns and his opposite number, Sergey Naryshkin:
The CIA’s Burns leads the American delegation in Ankara.
He will be talking directly to Naryshkin.
Well, Burns is a slight progress compared to Sullivan, who Patrushev can eat for breakfast, lunch, dinner and late night snack.
It started as Sullivan-Patrushev – national security – and is now on Burns-Naryshkin – spooks.
The Americans ARE really desperate.
Meanwhile, clueless coke clown sniffed at least 3g of Colombia’s finest to pose as “victor” in Kherson – while his usefulness (or not) is being discussed in Ankara.”
A new great analysis on the current situation from The New Atlas:
Russian Ops in Ukraine – Update: What is the Goal & is Moscow Achieving it?
Plus another fine Roundtable from Gonzalo Lira:
The Roundtable #35: On The Ground In The Donbas, with Liu Sivaya and Wyatt Reed
And 2 new videos from Donbass:
A new great analysis on the current situation from The New Atlas:
Russian Ops in Ukraine – Update: What is the Goal & is Moscow Achieving it?
Plus another fine Roundtable from Gonzalo Lira:
The Roundtable #35: On The Ground In The Donbas, with Liu Sivaya and Wyatt Reed
And 2 new videos from Donbass:
Walk and Talk IN DONETSK! With @Eva K Bartlett
In Donbass w Eva Bartlett, Mike iEarlGrey Jones, And masha!
Spot on Andrei! Replacing fiction with facts is like poking a hornet’s nest.
But actually I still think that some sort of discussion between Russia and Nato is going on and actually I think that it is going on since months and nobody of us will never know.
And neither Russia nor USA want to rule a polarized country and as you said the longer the war, the more polarized will Russia and USA be.
And I don’t think Putin is happy about a polarized Russia at all.
So besides propaganda and psyops, they both need to find an agreement of some sort.
And I still think that Kherson withdrawal has something to do with it.
So let’s see what’s next.
In my opinion, Russia is giving USA the chance to propose a truce and so Russia has pushed the pause button. It’s also possible that China has something to do with it. China and Russia have already make a big damage to the unipolar dollar hegemony. They know that now time is by their side.
If USA will show to be unable to propose a realistic truce, Russia will push the boost button and it will put the hell in Ukraine.
Because all is still on the hands of Russia.
USA and Nato are on a very slippery ground and are risking to lose all.
The requirments for an agreement was set out by Russia in December last year.
Mutually individible security, meaning NATO need to pull back to their ’97 line.
NATOs reponse was to go to war with Russia via the Ukraine proxy.
You really think Russia mobilized 300’000+ men for the winter season, for a truce ?
No, I believe that Russia is showing that Usa/Ukraine are not capable of being resonable and are not willing or able to propose a realistic truce.
So they are just taking time to show what’s the real situation, that the west has lost any reason.
After this becomes clear to anyone, they will boost the operation and we will understand the real meaning of Kherson retirement.
And I believe it will be a matter of days or weeks, not longer.
It may be that the report that Dugin has turned on Putin is a Western fake.I’m not sure,but he has released a statement claiming that:
The West and the TsIPSO began to spin the fake that the Russian patriots and I, after the surrender of Kherson, turned their backs on Putin and allegedly demanded his departure. This does not follow from anywhere, and they rely on some supposedly deleted message from me. It is clear that no one will believe this. But just in case: no one turned away from Putin, I and all Russian patriots unconditionally support him.
Pain for the loss of Kherson is one thing. The attitude towards the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is different. We are loyal to Putin and stand for the NVO and Russia to the end.
However, the West, which puts too much pressure on Russia, does not understand that Russia and Putin do not capitulate under any circumstances. The next step can only be the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The President made it clear: we will not surrender. Driving Russia into a corner is suicidal for the West and humanity.
I am sure that tactical nuclear weapons and further strategic nuclear weapons can be avoided if we turn to ideology and use the Russian Idea now. Having mobilized society spiritually and ideologically, we will manage without nuclear weapons. In the name of the President and for the benefit of the People. If we have any complaints, then to the ruling elite, which is already running in all directions and betraying the Supreme One after another. Only we, the Russian patriots and the Russian people, are faithful to him.
The West and CYPSO have started to imply that I and Russian patriots have turned against Putin after the Kherson surrender, allegedly demanding his resignation. This comes from nowhere and is based on an allegedly deleted message of mine. It is clear that no one will believe it. But to be sure: no one has turned their back on Putin, I and all Russian patriots support him unconditionally.
Excatly. I belive the word is ‘confimation bias’.
Your taxonomy relegates everyone to a category of either knaves, fools, or both. In your classification, no one is intelligent yet ignorant, searching for more information and alternate perspectives. I am well acquainted with the underlying and longstanding pessimism of Central and Eastern Europe, which is well-justified given the history. I am an American who’s been neither destroyed nor crushed just yet, so I am also aware of a certain Alfred E. Neumann complacency and superficiality.
Still, I cannot help but repeat the words of a complete stranger who walked up to me in Manhattan 40 years ago after I had broken up with someone I loved and was feeling and looking hopeless: “What’s the matter, ya never had a good day in yer life?” Made me smile, anyway.
The rarest words in the English language are “I was wrong,” “I am sorry,” and especially “I don’t know.” 9 months ago, when Russia went into Ukraine, I located Ukraine a few hundred miles west of where it is. And I am a world traveler with a habit of reading about other countries just because. My attitude now is: “I don’t know.” I am here because you are an alternative to the propaganda flooding the U.S. “news” media.
It’s a quaint search for facts, perspective, and understanding. All that Enlightenment jazz, not to mention them Greeks. But still: Have you ever had a good day in your life? Most people are not knaves or fools.